Early Look

Friday, April 10, 2026

U.S. stocks come in with the longest winning streak since October, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both riding a 7-day win streak ahead of key inflation data and US-Iran discussions in Islamabad at the weekend. With futures flat overnight as investors await new developments in the Iran embargo of ships thru the Strait of Hormuz, attention turns to inflation data this morning where U.S. consumer prices (CPI) likely recorded their biggest increase in nearly four years in March as the war with Iran boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted. The CPI likely increased 0.9% last month, a survey of economists predicted. That would be the largest monthly gain since June 2022, when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Estimates ranged from a 0.4% gain to a 1.7% jump. Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the CPI was estimated to have advanced 3.3%. That would be the largest increase since May 2024 and follow a 2.4% rise in February. Overall, anticipation of weekend talks between the US and Iran following this week’s ceasefire agreement are keeping markets on edge. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,028 points to 56,924, the Shanghai Index rose 20 points to 3,986, and the Hang Seng Index climbed 141 points to 25,893. In Europe, the German DAX is up 171 points to 23,878, while the FTSE 100 rises 40 points to 10,644.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275.88 points, or 0.58%, to 48,185.80
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 187.42 points, or 0.83%, to 22,822.42
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 15.86 points, or 0.61% to 2,636.32

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for March
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for March
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Durable Goods Orders M/M for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, April-prelim
• 10:00 AM Et                  University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, April-prelim
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for March
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal Budget for March
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• CTAs are currently short about $30 billion of S&P 500 futures. At present market levels, Goldman’s model suggests they could buy roughly $34 billion over the next week, as they cover bearish bets and flip back to net long positions – Bloomberg.

• Nike (NKE) was downgraded to neutral from overweight at Piper on concerns that athleisure is becoming too saturated across the industry; expects momentum in performance across the industry to continue, but says Nike is a quarter away from lapping big gains in running.
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens and cut tgt to $14 from $24 following Q2 results and a significant guidance reduction. Consumption was soft across the portfolio with pressure coming from distribution losses.

• Sherwin-Williams (SHW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight and tgt cut to $365 from $410 at Wells Fargo as believes the company's volume pressure will be more pronounced relative to RPM (RPM) and PPG Industries (PPG) and also cut Axalta Coating (AXTA) to EW from OW with $30 tgt from $39.

• Apple (AAPL) led global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of ‌2026, growing 5% y/y, even as ‌overall shipments fell due to a shortage of memory components, ​Counterpoint Research said on Friday. Global smartphone shipments fell 6% y/y as Middle East tensions also weighed on consumer sentiment.
• ChipMOS (IMOS) reports 23.1% YoY increase in March 2026 revenue; 25.4% YoY increase in Q126 revenue.
• Lumentum Holdings  (LITE), the Nvidia-backed Optical component maker shares have climbed 1,500% this year as enthusiasm about Ai-related infrastructure grows. Speaking to Bloomberg, CEO Michael Hurlston says their products are now sold out through 2027, and that while manufacturing capacity is expanding, it hasn’t yet caught up with hyperscaler demand.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Q1 revenue of T$1.134 trillion ($35.71 billion) vs analysts' average estimate of T$1.125 billion as revenue grows 35% y/y on surging interest in artificial intelligence applications

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, April 10, 2026

U.S. stocks off to a good start and looking to make it a second straight week of gains after falling five consecutive weeks prior. More massive tech gains (sans never ending software weakness on AI threat concerns) as the Philadelphia Se Semiconductor index (SOX) hits record high, last up 2.7% above 8,940, while optical stocks soar (AAOI, LITE, CIEN) along with memory (SNDK, WDC) and AI data infrastructure names (NBIS, CRWV, WULF). NVDA shares on track for its 8^th straight day of gains as recent Mag 7 strength from AMZN, GOOGL, META, NVDA have been the leaders in the recent 7 day winning streak for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Also today, as expected, CPI inflation jumped in March from February due to the spike in oil/energy prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.9% last month, the largest increase since June 2022 when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. In the 12 months through March, the CPI advanced 3.3% after rising 2.4% in February. Also, U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in early April, and consumers anticipated a surge in inflation in the next 12 months, as the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index tumbled to an all-time low of 47.6 this month from a final reading of 53.3 in March. Materials, Technology, Consumer Discretionary early leaders while Energy extends weekly loss along with Financials and Consumer Staples. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and Israel launched fresh attacks on Lebanon, which the United States and Iran each flagged as violations of their ceasefire deal on the eve of their first peace talks over the war. Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. delegation, set off for the talks in Pakistan today.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim April 47.6 (consensus 52.0) vs final March 53.3; University of Michigan surveys of consumers current conditions index prelim April 50.1 vs final March 55.8; University of Michigan surveys of consumers expectations index prelim April 46.1 vs final March 51.7
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim April 4.8% vs final March 3.8%; University of Michigan surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim April 3.4% vs final March 3.2%
• U.S. Feb factory orders unchanged (vs. consensus -0.2%) vs Jan unchanged (prev +0.1%); Feb factory orders ex-transportation +1.2% vs Jan +0.5% (prev +0.4%); U.S. Feb factory orders ex-defense +0.1% vs Jan +0.4%; U.S. Feb Durables orders revised to -1.3% from -1.4%; U.S. Feb nondurables orders +1.5% vs Jan +0.5%
• U.S. Feb total manufacturing inventories +0.1% vs Jan +0.1%; U.S. Feb nondefense cap orders ex-aircraft revised to +0.7% from +0.6%; Feb shipments revised to +1.0% from +0.9%; U.S. Feb inventories/shipments ratio 1.53 months' worth vs Jan 1.55 months.

• Optical sector getting more love with shares of AAOI, CIEN, AXTI, COHR moving higher early after LITE, the NVDA-backed Optical component maker CEO Michael Hurlston said their products are now sold out through 2027, and that while manufacturing capacity is expanding, it hasn’t yet caught up with hyperscaler demand. Sector caught some more volume after Citron Research said it was short AAOI- the anti-LITE noting two weeks ago AAOI was $85. Today it's $140. $3.5B in market cap added on a random press release. This stock should trade back to $85 once the roulette wheel stops spinning (which would still put it above consensus).  https://tinyurl.com/yc3eyrsw
• Data Center/AI infrastructure: CRWV announced an agreement with Anthropic to support the development and deployment of Anthropic's Claude family of AI models. The multi-year agreement will bring compute online starting later this year. Bloomberg noted last night that Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell called Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that Anthropic latest model will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. Seeing infrastructure sectors, with a strong focus on data Centers, high-performance Computing (HPC), artificial Intelligence (AI) seeing broad strength today with NBIS all-time highs, CRWV, WULF, IREN, HUT rising.
• Refiners: Goldman Sachs upgraded PARR (tgt to $77 from $53) and DK ($55 tgt) to Buy from Neutral saying they expect strong positive consensus estimate revisions due to strength in the company's Hawaii earnings and underappreciated mainland refiners for PARR and sees DK cost reduction efforts, small refinery exemptions, improved marketing and wholesale strategy, and growing logistics earnings driving stronger free cash flow generation. Also assumed PBF with a Neutral rating and CVI with a Sell rating as believes the company's capital allocation priorities will remain focused on debt paydown and potential inorganic growth.

• LITE +2%; as the NVDA-backed Optical component maker CEO Michael Hurlston said their products are now sold out through 2027, and that while manufacturing capacity is expanding, it hasn’t yet caught up with hyperscaler demand (shares of AAOI, COHR, AXTI, CIEN moved in sympathy as well)
• OGN +24%; after the Economic Times reported that Sun Pharmaceutical is set to make a $12 billion offer for debt-ridden company. Sun Pharmaceutical called the report speculative in nature. https://tinyurl.com/5648fv2a
• SHAK +2%; was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and raise PT to $120 from $100 at Mizuho saying checks point to Q1 comp sales growth upside, with drivers in place for comp momentum and restaurant-level margins ahead of current expectations as 2026 progresses.
• TSM +2%; after the company reported March sales that reinforced how the company is seeing strong AI demand.

• NOW -7%; was downgraded to Neutral at UBS and lowered their tgt to $100 from $170 saying their confidence has weakened that NOW is better positioned for this Ai Era relative to other application software firms
• PLTR 4%; extends declines to 10-month lows with broader software pullback on latest AI updates from Anthropic
• SMPL -5%; was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens and cut tgt to $14 from $24 following Q2 results and a significant guidance reduction. Consumption was soft across the portfolio with pressure coming from distribution losses.
• TGLS -6%; lowered its full-year adjusted Ebitda outlook due to tariffs on certain aluminum-containing products and derivatives (updates fy2026 adj EBITDA guidance to $225M-$245M)

Closing Recap

Friday, April 10, 2026

U.S. stocks slipped, erasing morning gains (despite hotter CPI inflation data earlier) and snapped the 7 day win streak for the S&P 500, though the Nasdaq finished higher for an 8^th straight day heading into the weekend where the recently achieved cease fire deal between the U.S. and Iran has yet to materialize other than in words. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 3.6%, the Dow climbed 3.0% and the Nasdaq climbed 4.7%. To this point, Iran has not opened the Strait of Hormuz to allow tankers/shippers to travel and begin easing supply chain issues, while Israel has continued to attack Lebanon which Iran said was against the terms of the ceasefire deal. Now a few days removed from the deal announcement, VP JD Vance is leading a peace talks mission in Pakistan this weekend that hopes to resolve these issues and get tankers moving and come to a larger agreed upon deal with Iran. Outside of the macro, there was economic data showing the inflationary impact of rising oil prices, while markets brace for earnings season with the start of big banks reporting next week including GS Monday and JPM, Citi, WFC and BLK on Tuesday.

Tech was a leader today as the Philly semi index (SOX) hit all-time highs, optical names (AAOI, LITE, CIEN), memory names (SNDK, WDC) and data infrastruture (NBIS, CRWV, WULF) all led as the AI trade plays out further. Though, Ai fears are growing on reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned the leaders of some of the largest US banks earlier this week to discuss the cyber risk posed by the latest AI model from Anthropic. Meanwhile all levels of software (application, cyber, infrastructure, vertical) have continue to plummet daily on fears of AI impact to their models, with names like ZS, WDAY, TEAM, SNOW, NOW, MDB, MNDY, HUBS, INTU all falling over 40% YTD thus far just 3 months in, while the IGV Software ETF is down around -30% YTD. Today’s rally in Nasdaq and S&P 500 lead by Mag 7, which has been what is driving the recent 8 day win streak for US stocks. Coming into today, the S&P 500 was up 7 days in a row and +760bps, with AVGO, META, GOOGL, AMZN, & NVDA accounting for ~45% of this move.

In macro news, President Donald Trump told The New York Post that U.S. warships are being reloaded with "the best ammunition" to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks in Pakistan fail. Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff are traveling to Islamabad to negotiate a final peace deal after a two-week cease-fire agreement was struck earlier this week. On the data front, CPI inflation jumped in March from February due to the spike in oil/energy prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.9% last month, the largest increase since June 2022 when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. In the 12 months through March, the CPI advanced 3.3% after rising 2.4% in February. Also, U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in early April, and consumers anticipated a surge in inflation in the next 12 months, as the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index tumbled to an all-time low of 47.6 this month from a final reading of 53.3 in March.

• Core CPI, or ex: food/energy rose +2.6% in March vs. consensus +2.7% and compared to prior month +2.5% while the m/m core CPI reading rose +0.2% vs. consensus rise of +0.3%.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim April 47.6 (consensus 52.0) vs final March 53.3; current conditions index prelim April 50.1 vs final March 55.8; University of Michigan surveys of consumers expectations index prelim April 46.1 vs final March 51.7.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim April 4.8% vs final March 3.8%; University of Michigan surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim April 3.4% vs final March 3.2%
• U.S. Feb factory orders unchanged (vs. consensus -0.2%) vs Jan unchanged (prev +0.1%); Feb factory orders ex-transportation +1.2% vs Jan +0.5% (prev +0.4%); U.S. Feb factory orders ex-defense +0.1% vs Jan +0.4%; U.S. Feb Durables orders revised to -1.3% from -1.4%; U.S. Feb nondurables orders +1.5% vs Jan +0.5%
• U.S. Feb total manufacturing inventories +0.1% vs Jan +0.1%; U.S. Feb nondefense cap orders ex-aircraft revised to +0.7% from +0.6%; Feb shipments revised to +1.0% from +0.9%; U.S. Feb inventories/shipments ratio 1.53 months' worth vs Jan 1.55 months.

• The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday and posted its largest weekly drop since January, as investors sold safe assets on optimism that oil shipping will resume if a ceasefire holds in the Gulf. The euro rallied 1.6% this week to trade at $1.1712, while sterling rose up 1.9% since Monday to $1.344.
• June gold prices fell $30.60 or 0.635% to settle at $4,787.40 an ounce as precious metal futures gain ground for the week. Front-month gold was up 2.4% for the week and silver gains posted a 4.9% rise for the week. Gold and silver slowly returned to being a market hedge during the Iran war.

• Mattress retail (SGI, SNBR, LEG, W): Piper said their March 2026 PSC Mattress Retailer survey saw some sequential deceleration from Jan/Feb. Full Q1 sales came in at +5%/+4%, the 2nd best quarter in 4 years. And despite a tougher compare in Q2, retailers expect +MSD% growth to continue.
• In Food sector: SMPL was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens and cut tgt to $14 from $24 following Q2 results and a significant guidance reduction. Consumption was soft across the portfolio with pressure coming from distribution losses.
• In Restaurants: SHAK was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and raise PT to $120 from $100 at Mizuho saying checks point to Q1 comp sales growth upside, with drivers in place for comp momentum and restaurant-level margins ahead of current expectations as 2026 progresses.
• Consumer Products: in tobacco, (PM, MO) Stifel previewed the quarter saying they still see attractive upside for PM shares supported by smokefree volume growth and a resilient cigarette business and an acceleration of earnings growth through 2026, while for MO, Stifel finds the valuation, earnings growth outlook, and dividend yield supportive of upside in shares.

• In Construction/Industrials: TGLS lowered its full-year adjusted Ebitda outlook due to tariffs on certain aluminum-containing products and derivatives (updates fy2026 adj EBITDA guidance to $225M-$245M).
• Aerospace & Defense: PLTR shares hit 10-month lows before bouncing following a comment by President Trump on Truth Social saying “"Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has proven to have great war fighting capabilities and Equipment. Just ask our enemies!!! President DJT"
• In Chemicals: SHW and AXTA both downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo and tgt cut to $365 from $410 for SHW and to $30 from $39 for AXTA as they believe volume pressure will be more pronounced vs for RPM and PPG (reiterate Overweight on both). Additionally, Wells expects global supply chains will require 3-4+ months to normalize even if the recent ceasefire holds.
• In Metals: copper producer SCCO was upgraded to Neutral from Sell with $178 PT at Goldman Sachs and Grupo Mexico shares to Buy (from Neutral) saying copper scarcity premium is now larger than ever due to expectations of structural supply/demand tightness. GLNCY said it acquired a 45% stake in an aluminium recycling and remelting plant near Charleston, South Carolina, strengthening the miner's position in the U.S. aluminium supply chain.

• In Asset managers: IVZ preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $2,159.5 billion, a decrease of 4.4% versus previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $0.3 billion in the month. Money market net outflows were $1.8 billion. AUM was negatively impacted by unfavorable market returns which decreased AUM by $91 billion
• Private Credit/Alt Managers: ARES is sounding out investors for a direct lending fund with a preliminary total target size of ~$20B, people with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg News. In the later part of March, Ares capped redemptions from its Ares Strategic Income Fund at 5% after receiving $1.2B in redemption requests during Q1, representing 11.6% of its $10.7B asset base. Investors are said to have sought to get back more than $20B of their investments from private credit firms in Q1 2026, a sign of the increasing concern after a boom in the asset class.
• Financial Services: in credit bureaus, shares of FICO was down more than 10% most of the day, extending recent losses driven in significant part by competitive fears from GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) now accepting VantageScore 4.0. Note in early 2026 (especially March), the three major credit bureaus (EFX, EXPN, TRU — VantageScore’s owners) began aggressively cutting VantageScore 4.0 pricing (reports of ~$0.99 or even free bundles with FICO) and has heightened fears of pricing-power erosion and faster adoption in GSE/mortgage space.

• REPL shares slid after received another Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA for RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) + nivolumab on its PDUFA date of April 10, 2026. This is for the treatment of advanced melanoma in patients who progressed after a PD-1 inhibitor-containing regimen (the same post-PD-1 refractory setting as IOVA approved product). REPL’s setback (trial Design/heterogeneity issues cited again, no new safety problems) gives Iovance more runway to ramp Amtagvi sales.

• In Internet: GOOGL’s YouTube is raising prices in the U.S. for its YouTube Premium ad-free plans and YouTube Music. The YouTube Premium individual plan is increasing from $13.99 to $15.99 per month, while the family plan is increasing from $22.99 to $26.99 per month and The YouTube Music individual plan is increasing from $10.99 to $11.99 per month with the family plan rising from $16.99 to $18.99 per month

• Data Center/AI infrastructure: CRWV announced an agreement with Anthropic to support the development and deployment of Anthropic's Claude family of AI models. The multi-year agreement will bring compute online starting later this year. Bloomberg noted last night that Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell called Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that Anthropic latest model will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. Seeing infrastructure sectors, with a strong focus on data Centers, high-performance Computing (HPC), artificial Intelligence (AI) seeing broad strength today with NBIS all time highs, CRWV, WULF, IREN, HUT rising.
• In Software: Citigroup downgraded SMWB, CCC, DOCU, NICE, VEEV, ADSK, which moves its buy-rated coverage mix from ~70% to 50%, to better align with the software underweight house view, and how it expects investors to be positioned over the next year. Citi believes most of these are good companies, and may be well positioned long-term, but don't have exciting 12-month catalysts. Citi is moderating CY27+ estimates on its downgraded names and also lower TPs/valuation frameworks across the group. Separately, NOW was downgraded to Neutral at UBS and lowered their tgt to $100 from $170 saying their confidence has weakened that NOW is better positioned for this Ai Era relative to other application software firms and is hearing more anecdotes of non-AI apps software budget pressure and seems limited upside to rev guidance. Midday CVLT shares jumped after Reuters reported the company is exploring a possible sale after receiving takeover interest from multiple parties.
• In Networking: NET shares tumbled -13% after falling -9% on Thursday as Oppenheimer noted concerns around dislocation by Anthropic's Project Glasswing and its cross-industry coalition. However, OPCO highlights that Cloudflare's Security sales are tied to its physical network, which is necessary to funnel data traffic. OPCO sees Cloudflare as a beneficiary of this growing sophistication in Frontier models, which will support exponential growth in agentic Ai applications.
• In Storage: NTNX was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan and cut tgt to $44 from $55 saying while the inexpensive valuation at this time leaves open the opportunity for significant upward momentum in the shares from potential partnerships to position the company for Enterprise Ai investments, believes improvement in the fundamentals will take more time and are opting to step into a Neutral rating while waiting for the same.

• Reuters noted last night that Anthropic is exploring the possibility of designing its own chips, as the company and ‌its rivals respond to a shortage of AI chips needed to power and develop more advanced AI systems. Plans are in early stages, and the company may still decide to only buy AI chips and not design any.
• In memory/HDD sector: Susquehanna lowered its HDD unit shipment assumptions for both STX and WDC; however, recent channel checks indicate HDD unit ASPs are tracking materially better than its prior expectations. The firm remains meaningfully above consensus through mid‑CY2027, though below consensus thereafter.

Street Recommendations

Friday, April 10, 2026

• IT Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Gartner to $150 from $180 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says that even if the Q1 reports in the information services sector "show resiliency, this is unlikely to cut through the AI narrative and mark a turning point for the sector." Investor focus will remain on the outlooks, given the added geopolitical noise not reflected in the initial guides, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TRI Barclays analyst Manav Patnaik lowered the firm's price target on Thomson Reuters to $170 from $210 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that even if the Q1 reports in the information services sector "show resiliency, this is unlikely to cut through the AI narrative and mark a turning point for the sector." Investor focus will remain on the outlooks, given the added geopolitical noise not reflected in the initial guides, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RCL Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Royal Caribbean to $351 from $361 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the cruise lines group as part of a Q1 preview. The Middle East conflict is "starting to leave its mark, while any rotation into the Caribbean isn't helping (yet)," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays cut estimates in the sector on higher fuel prices and trimmed yields for Q2 and Q3 as well. The favorable longer-term industry backdrop remains intact, and now includes "an underappreciated AI opportunity," contends the firm.

• IVZ BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Invesco to $28 from $32 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Asset Managers. The firm's negative EPS revisions across the group primarily reflects the broad market headwinds that emerged more meaningfully in March, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For Invesco, BMO further cites durability of the QQQ growth and the ongoing de-leveraging of the balance sheet.
• TROW BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on T. Rowe Price to $98 from $104 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Asset Managers. The firm's negative EPS revisions across the group primarily reflects the broad market headwinds that emerged more meaningfully in March, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ELF BofA lowered the firm's price target on Elf Beauty (ELF) to $93 from $115 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock price has declined 16% year-to-date, which the firm partially attributes to the conflict in the Middle East, though it views this as "perception-based rather than real impact" given Elf's immaterial revenue exposure in the region compared to beauty peers. Elsewhere, the firm has seen softness at Ulta (ULTA) impacting sales trends due to delayed shelf space resets from winter weather impacts, the analyst tells investors.
• PG BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm's price target on Procter & Gamble to $167 from $171 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm maintains its Q3 EPS forecast at $1.55, but lowers its FY26 and FY27 estimates to reflect an increased resin cost view, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• CL BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm's price target on Colgate-Palmolive to $102 from $105 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of Q1 earnings, the firm updated estimates for organic sales and FY26 EPS to reflect several items, including

• TYL BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Tyler Technologies to $420 from $470 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares and notes that the firm is incrementally more constructive on the company's positioning and AI opportunity following its user conference.

• PLNT Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Planet Fitness to $122 from $128 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of Q4 results after conducting its sixth proprietary survey of various locations which showed membership trends were solid, driven by long-standing and new amenities.
• SPIR Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Spire Global to $22 from $14 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the anouncement that it completed a $70M private placement offering selling 5M shares at $14 per share. The company remains in a strong position from a balance sheet perspective.
• BB Canaccord analyst Kingsley Crane lowered the firm's price target on BlackBerry to $4.40 from $4.60 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm sid they reported a solid Q4 beating on all metrics including returning $25M cash to shareholders by repurchasing 6.7M shares during the quarter.

• DOCU Citi downgraded DocuSign to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $50, down from $99. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades. The rating changes reflects Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• NICE Citi analyst Tyler Radke downgraded Nice to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $119, down from $184. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades. The rating changes reflects Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• SMWB Citi downgraded Similarweb to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $3, down from $8.50. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades. The rating changes reflects Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• VEEV Citi downgraded Veeva to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $176, down from $291. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades. The rating changes reflects Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• HUBS Citi analyst Tyler Radke lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $368 from $640 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades and price target cuts. These reflect Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• NXST Citi last night upgraded Nexstar to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $220, down from $252. The firm believes the Street has become too bearish on the Tegna acquisition. It sees $8 per share of potential downside and $73 of potential upside, creating a 9:1 risk-reward for Nexstar. The price target assumes Nexstar sells stations covering 25M homes from divestitures for the Tegna deal, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• STZ Citi raised the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $185 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees a favorable setup for the shares after the company returned to beer depletions growth in fiscal Q4. It cites increased confidence in Constellation's sales and earnings upside for the target boost.

• DK Goldman Sachs upgraded Delek US to Buy from Neutral with a $55 price target after assuming coverage of the name. The firm sees the company's cost reduction efforts, small refinery exemptions, improved marketing and wholesale strategy, and growing logistics earnings driving stronger free cash flow generation. Delek's small refinery exemptions and benefits from its self-help initiatives are underappreciated by the market, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PBF Goldman Sachs assumed coverage of PBF Energy with a Neutral rating and price target of $49, up from $41. The firm is positive on the company's exposure to tightening West Coast dynamics, but awaits the re-start of Martinez, which composes 50% of PBF's footprint in the region.
• CVI Goldman Sachs analyst Alexa Petrick assumed coverage of CVR Energy with a Sell rating and $30 price target. The firm believes the company's capital allocation priorities will remain focused on debt paydown and potential inorganic growth. This suggests a dividend reinstatement is a "longer-dated event," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• WMB Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith raised the firm's price target on Williams to $83 from $81 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of Q1 results, investor focus has shifted from the long-term compound annual growth rate to proof of Power Innovation execution, the analyst contends in a preview. While the market awaits clearer backlog conversion, the firm says its continued confidence in the PI opportunity makes the risk/reward "compelling," the analyst added.

• NTNX JPMorgan downgraded Nutanix to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $44, down from $55. The company's investor day brought a detailed long-term outlook but with limited near-term visibility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says the choice of fiscal 2029 for medium-term targets served to highlight Nutanix's limited visibility near-term in a choppy macro backdrop. The firm now thinks improvement in the company's fundamentals will take more time.
• DE JPMorgan analyst Tami Zakaria raised the firm's price target on Deere to $550 from $525 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the machinery and waste services space as part of a Q1 preview. Class 8 truck orders data year-to-date suggests upside potential for back half of 2026 estimates across the truck group while the outlook for global construction equipment remains positive, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes the agriculture end markets "remain choppy" with Brazil biased to the downside, North America retail sales modestly deteriorating in recent months, and Europe improving.

• STZ Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $160 from $146 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm considers 2027 guidance achievable and likely beatable if early 2027 momentum continues. World Cup could add a sales lift, though it is a one-time event without any apparent lasting momentum boost, and Piper would not be buying the stock on excitement over it. Constellation has a benefit from tariff relief in 2027, but this is offset by higher costs from Veracruz starting up mid-year, adds the firm.

• MIST Raymond James last night initiated coverage of Milestone Pharmaceuticals with a Strong Buy rating and $6 price target. At current share levels, the market is only assigning less than $100M in peak sales for Cardamyst in paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says this equates to just a 2% penetration into the 2M patient population. Raymond James believes Cardamyst "has all the fundamentals for a successful launch."
• PTCT Raymond James analyst Tiago Fauth last night initiated coverage of PTC Therapeutics with an Outperform rating and $108 price target. PTC is commercializing Sephience, the first and only phenylketonuria therapy to combine oral dosing with "robust" phenylalanine control and diet flexibility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the drug offers key advantages over legacy standard-of-care therapies. Sephience creates a "compelling long-term risk/reward skew" for PTC shares, contends Raymond James.
• PRAX Raymond James last night initiated coverage of Praxis Precision with a Strong Buy rating and $815 price target. The firm says the bear thesis on the name "is a conclusion in search of facts." Ulixacaltamide's potential FDA approval in early 2027 is the key catalyst for the stock over the next 12 months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. penalty. At Praxis' current valuation, Raymond James believes investors are "materially underpricing" ulixacaltamide's probability of approval.
• UTHR Raymond James last night initiated coverage of United Therapeutics with an Outperform rating and $700 price target. The firm believes $5B in peak sales is achievable for Tyvaso in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Tyvaso's clinical benefit on top of either standard of care agent "makes it a straightforward add-on agent," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James believes the trajectory of Tyvaso's base business "is stabilization, not erosion."

• SITE UBS assumed coverage of SiteOne Landscape with a Neutral rating and $140 price target, offering 4% upside. The firm sees the company's demand remaining under pressure in the first half of 2026 due to the effect of lagged housing starts while the broader residential end market trends remain challenged. In addition, several of SiteOne's input costs have risen sharply in recent weeks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes the shares will be range-bound for now.
• AXSM UBS raised the firm's price target on Axsome Therapeutics to $259 from $251 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the April 30 FDA action date for Auvelity's Alzheimer's disease agitation filing. UBS has "high conviction" in Auvelity's approvability and believes the new indication could add $2bn in incremental sales. The firm believes the decision could come earlier than April 30 and expects a "clean label."
• BROS UBS continues to view Dutch Bros shares as attractive given its expectation for ongoing sales momentum in 2026. The momentum will be driven by Dutch's strategic initiatives and "robust" development pipeline supported by solid new store productivity and returns, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes concerns around increased competition from energy beverage launches from McDonald's and Starbucks, as well as potential geopolitical conflict impacts, are overblown. The overhang on Dutch shares could be lifted if the company's sales momentum continues through the competitor launches, the firm contends. It keeps a Buy rating on the stock with an $85 price target.

• SHW Wells Fargo last night downgraded Sherwin-Williams (SHW) to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $365, down from $410. The firm believes the company's volume pressure will be more pronounced relative to RPM (RPM) and PPG Industries (PPG). The war in Iran has led to "broad-based" inflation across most commodity chains, flowing down to coatings raw materials, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells says that in addition to margin pressure from the higher costs, sales results for coatings names will be pressured by a tougher macro backdrop as affordability remains challenging. It cut estimates for Sherwin-Williams to reflect a more challenging outlook for U.S. housing and some pressure from higher raw material costs.
• PPG Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on PPG to $130 from $135 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The war in Iran has led to "broad-based" inflation across most commodity chains, flowing down to coatings raw materials, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells says that in addition to margin pressure from the higher costs, sales results for coatings names will be pressured by a tougher macro backdrop as affordability remains challenging.
• STZ Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey raised the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $185 from $180 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's Q4 was encouraging, with depletions turning positive, helping underwrite the acceleration story into summer. Wells sees Constellation's guidance as conservative and valuation low, one of the cleaner positive catalyst paths into summer in Staples.
• MGY Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Magnolia Oil & Gas to $32 from $25 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm expects steady Q1 execution, with mixed financial results driven primarily by weaker-than-expected gas price realizations. Key focus areas include commodity price realization dynamics, hedging, and service cost trends, Wells adds.
• CE Wells Fargo analyst Michael Sison raised the firm's price target on Celanese to $75 from $70 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Despite the fact that the Engineered Materials end markets remain challenged, the firm thinks Celanese is well positioned to benefit from tighter global acetic acid and methanol supply dynamics, while remaining relatively insulated from issues impacting China and the Middle East.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: A LOT FBK

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for March
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for March
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: EQBK MAMA SURG

• Jefferies Private Growth Conference 4/14

• 8:30 AM ET NY Empire Fed Manufacturing for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for March
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for April
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC Flows for February

• Earnings After the Close: GSBC HOMB JBHT MIND NKLR SLG

• China Retail Sales, industrial Output for March
• China Q2 GDP

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for April
• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for March
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization for March
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AA FNB INDB LAKE NFLX SFNC

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