Closing Recap
Tuesday, April 07, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -85.13 | 0.18% | 46,584 |
S&P 500 | 5.00 | 0.08% | 6,616 |
Nasdaq | 21.51 | 0.10% | 22,017 |
Russell 2000 | 4.32 | 0.17% | 2,544 |
U.S. stocks spent the entire day in negative territory until the final minutes, as the deadline set by U.S. President Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz drew closer with little sign an agreement could be reached. Trump has given Iran until 8 p.m. EDT in Washington - 3:30 a.m. in Tehran - to end its blockade of Gulf oil, or he has said the U.S. military will destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran. Iran said it would retaliate against U.S. allies in the Gulf. Tensions remain high heading into tonight, but the S&P 500 managed a modest gain to extend its winning streak to five days. Headlines were fluid all day as trikes on Iran intensified, but Iran showed no sign of accepting Trump's ultimatum to open the Strait by the end of Tuesday. The U.S. president said in an earlier post on Truth Social, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!" Stocks got a late day pop on reports that Iran's U.N. ambassador notes U.N. Secretary-general's personal Envoy currently en route to Tehran for discussions. Also, The Prime Minister of Pakistan has called on the Islamic Republic to open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks as a gesture of goodwill. He also urged all parties involved to establish a comprehensive ceasefire for two weeks so that diplomacy can achieve a definitive end to the war with Iran. Both sides have a near-term out if they can come up with his compromise…we shall see.
Outside of the constant flow of headlines out of Iran and the White House, markets also prepare for the start of earnings season next week, as well as key inflation data later this week with core PCE data on Thursday and then consumer prices index (CPI) inflation data on Friday. Data today out of NY Fed showed rising inflation expectations while Durable Goods orders data showed declines in February. In stock movers, Energy (XLE) was the best S&P leader today as oil prices jumped further early (WTI topped $117 per barrel before paring gains), along with Healthcare (XLV) behind strength in managed care stocks (UNH, HUM, CVS, CNC) on new CMS pricing headlines. Hefty losses for Consumer Staples (XLP), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) both down over -1% while other sectors were mostly higher on hopes of a ceasefire.
Economic Data
- Feb Durables Goods Orders fell -1.4% vs. consensus -1.0% and compared to January -0.5% (prev unchanged); U.S. Feb Durables ex-transportation orders +0.8% (consensus +0.4%) vs Jan +0.3% (prev +0.4%); U.S. Feb Durables ex-defense orders -1.2% vs Jan +0.2% (prev +0.5%). US Feb nondefense cap orders ex-aircraft +0.6%, (cons +0.4%) vs Jan -0.4% (prev +0.1%) US Feb Durables shipments +1.3% vs Jan +0.9%.
- NY Fed: March year ahead expected inflation 3.4% versus 3% in February while March three-year ahead expected inflation 3.1% versus 3% in February but March five-year ahead expected inflation unchanged at 3%. March year ahead expected house price climb 3.3% versus February’s 3%.
- European final PMIs were broadly steady but showed an uninspiring services backdrop. The Euro area held at 50.2 (composite 50.7), with Germany coming in a tad lower at 50.9 and France improving from the flash to 48.8. Spain remained relatively firm (services 53.3), while Italy lagged (48.8), slipping back into contraction. The UK printed 50.5 vs the flash 51.2 (composite 50.3 vs flash 51.0).
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- Oil prices set the tone for broader markets again today as May WTI crude futures spiked above $117 per barrel before paring gains, rising $0.54 or 0.48% to settle at $112.95 per barrel while the recent rolled over Brent crude contract to June fell -$0.50 to settle at $109.27 per barrel. All movement related to never ending headlines on Iran all day with the deadline tonight to come up with Trump approved plan.
- U.S. Treasury yields edged slightly higher, with the 10-yr yield to 4.341% as a deadline set by U.S. President Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz drew closer with little sign an agreement could be reached. The yield on the 30-year bond rose 2.7 basis points to 4.918% near biggest daily climb since March 27.
- Not much doing in precious metals markets as June gold was unchanged at $4,684.70 an ounce while May silver falls -$0.86, or -1.18%, to settle at $71.99, as caution prevailed in the market ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's looming deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk devastating attacks on its infrastructure.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 0.54 | 112.95 |
Brent | -0.50 | 109.27 |
Gold | 0.00 | 4,684.70 |
EUR/USD | 0.0057 | 1.1597 |
JPY/USD | -0.11 | 159.58 |
10-Year Note | 0.006 | 4.341% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- Consumer Staples (XLP) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the biggest S&P 500 sector losers as higher energy weighs on spending fears. MELI was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies with $2,600 tgt as the firm backs MELI's consistent approach and successful long term track record of investing in long term growth opportunities. Higher investment is paying off through stronger revenue drivers and opex dilution
- In Restaurants: WING was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup with lower tgt of $230 from $286 saying they do not see an immediate solution for a same-store-sales rebound, but easing compares and the company's self-help actions could bring a rebound in the second half of 2026 (shares were raised at Piper, Raymond James last week).
Homebuilders, Building Products, Home Furnishing:
- In Homebuilders: Seaport Global downgraded PHM, LEN, TMHC from Buy to Sell, cut DHI, TOL, MHO, KBH from Buy to Neutral, and downgraded NVR from Neutral to Sell saying its “Dallas" thesis reflects its rising concern that housing activity is poised to slow further, on a lower neutral job rate, that over-rides Builders efforts to trim supply, and stabilize margins, materially lowering the risk to return outlook it held before, implying a trading range from “value-trap” to “catching a falling knife”, in its opinion.
- In Building Products: Truist noted on March 30th, Johns Manville and Certainteed announced price increases on their insulation and wallboard products, respectively. Truist suspects that others will follow given the growing raw material inflation threat in all businesses. The wallboard increase is particularly large at 20%+ but the industry has a history of announcements of this Magnitude with limited realization. Polyiso will most likely see substantial raw material inflation without significant relief from oil. Relevant names in Truist's coverage include CSL, OC and EXP.
Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:
- In Auto Retail earnings preview at Barclay’s, dealer estimates broadly move lower, while its forecasts for CVNA and KMX are higher on the latest tracking data; the firm said they expect CPRT to be the most impacted by the Middle East tensions as a sizable portion of its exports go to the region. The sharp rise in fuel costs could impact some companies including LKQ, CVNA, KMX and OPLN, but given their overall exposure and the timing of when fuel prices started to rise Barclay’s expects this impact to be modest.
- Auto Retail (KMX, CVNA): The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 215.3, reflecting a 6.2% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to March 2025. The March index is up 1.4% month over month. The long-term average monthly move for March is flat. Non-adjusted wholesale vehicle prices are now up 5.7% year over year, and up 4.2% against February. The long-term average monthly move in non-adjusted values is an increase of 3.4% in March.
- In Ride hailing/Food Delivery: UBER is using AMZN custom chips to speed up Computing and train artificial Intelligence models, the Cloud giant said on Tuesday, as they seek advanced hardware to handle growing digital workloads. The deal expands their existing Cloud partnership by enabling Uber to use Amazon’s AWS Graviton chips to support smoother rides and deliveries and Trainium processors to train Ai models that power apps. In car rental, CAR shares surged again for 5th straight advance and now up around 140% the last 3 weeks to highest levels since May 2022
Energy Industrials, & Materials
- In Energy sector: Crude prices gain ahead of a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on power plants and other infrastructure, lifting energy stocks; refiner PSX said its first-quarter results were impacted by about $900 million in pre-tax mark-to-market losses due to increases in commodity prices impacting its short positions.
- In utilities/Solar: ENPH said expects Q1 fiscal 2026 GAAP gross margin to fall about 6.7 percentage points versus prior guidance as outlook hit reflects March 31, 2026 sale of advanced manufacturing production tax credits tied to 2025 eligible U.S. component production. U.S. power consumption, which hit its second straight annual record high in 2025, will rise further in 2026 and 2027, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. The EIA projected power demand will rise from a record 4,195B kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025 to 4,244B kWh in 2026 and 4,381B kWh in 2027. Demand is surging due in large part to data Centers dedicated to artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency. The EIA forecasts power sales in 2026 will rise to 1,520B kWh for residential consumers, 1,528B kWh for commercial customers and 1,053B kWh for industrial customers.
- In Trucking/Freight: ODFL was upgraded to Equal weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo and raises tgt to $200 from $165 saying the co is well positioned to outperform, supported by improving LTL tonnage, positive manufacturing demand signals, and resilience to high fuel prices. Adds trucking supply and demand has turned favorable for the first time since 2022. In airlines, DAL will raise checked bag fees by $10 on domestic and select short-haul international routes for tickets bought starting April 8. A first checked bag will now cost $45, a second $55, and a third bag $200.
- In Aerospace & Defense: RKLB was upgraded to Market Outperform from Market Perform at Citizens and establish an $85 price target on Rocket Lab Corporation, as the company's launch, Defense space systems, and a clearer path toward higher-value space services shift the risk/reward meaningfully in Rocket Lab's favor, coupled with a favorable geopolitical and funding environment for the space economy.
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
- In Banks: MS was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS with $196 tgt as sees a buying opportunity with bank stocks selling off on the Iran conflict, private credit concerns, and AI disruption. UBS also assumed coverage of several other banks with FIBK a Sell (from prior Neutral), FHN to Neutral (from Buy prior), and WAL to Neutral (from buy prior) while new coverage on EWBC, BPOP and PNFP were raised to Buy ratings from prior Neutrals. ASB was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclay’s citing the bank's "strong growth trajectory and continued turnaround" for the upgrade as asset sensitive banks will benefit from the move higher in rates.
- In Exchanges/Brokers: TW reports record March 2026 total trading volume of $87.0 trillion and record average daily volume of $3.8 trillion as March 2026 ADV up 41.8% y/y to $3.8 trillion; Q1 2026 trading volume $214.3 trillion, adv $3.3 trillion, up 31.4% YoY; MKTX record total credit ADV and strong growth in total rates ADV in both periods; record total portfolio trading ADV of $2.3 billion in March, up 48% and record U.S. high-grade, emerging markets, Eurobonds and municipal bonds ADV in Q126.
Biotech & Pharma:
- AORT said the FDA approved its NEXUS Aortic Arch System, which treats a serious disease of the aorta, the body’s main artery, without open-chest surgery; says the device can be used for aortic arch disease, including chronic tears in the artery wall, offering an alternative to high-risk surgery.
- BIIB said it will book about $34M of pretax acquired in-process R&D, upfront and milestone expenses in the first quarter that will clip reported and adjusted per-share earnings by about -$0.19; said the expenses include costs incurred in connection with collaboration and license agreements.
- BIIB also said it has signed a collaboration and license agreement with Alloy Therapeutics to use its proprietary AntiClastic ASO platform for developing next-generation antisense therapeutics.
- GILD has agreed to acquire Tubulis for $3.15B in cash, with up to $1.85B in additional contingent payments; total potential deal value: $5B. Tubulis focuses on next-generation antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology.
- GLSI said new late-stage trial data shows its experimental breast cancer drug GLSI-100 works regardless of a key genetic marker, widening the pool of eligible patients; says early data shows an about 80% cut in cancer returning in patients without the marker, similar to earlier results.
- HALO announces global collaboration and license agreement with VRTX Hypercon™ technology; Vertex to make $15M upfront payment to Halozyme; Vertex licenses HALO Hypercon technology for up to three drug targets.
- NGEN said the FDA agreed on the design of a late-stage study for its experimental drug for spinal cord injury, NVG-291, that aims to improve hand movement in people with chronic paralysis of all four limbs.
- ORGO said a randomized controlled trial of 170 patients in a diabetic foot ulcer trial achieved its primary endpoint.
- PLSE enrolls first patients in nanopulse-af ide pivotal clinical study evaluating nPULSE™ cardiac catheter system for atrial fibrillation.
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- Managed care sector: shares of UNH, HUM, ELV, CVS, CNC and other managed care stocks jumped overnight after CMS finalized an average rate increase of 2.48%% in payments next year, or over $13B in additional Medicare Advantage payments in 2027, compared with the near flat proposal in January, to private insurers for the Medicare Advantage plans they manage for older adults.
- Life Science Tools and Diagnostics Q126 preview at Citigroup: the broker said following the most recent sell off in the group driven partially by Ai along with softer Q1 guides, Citi is seeing interest modestly pick back up. CROs were the most impacted by Ai fears, with IQV at the center given combined software and clinical research. Citi believes a Central focus this reporting season will be on Q2 guidance ranges, with investors likely to push back on any Q2 guidance below the Street leading to sharper 2H ramps. Citi downgrades BIO to Neutral from Buy, add positive catalyst watches to GH, NTRA and TMO.
- In Insulin sector: Citigroup downgraded PODD to Neutral from Buy (tgt to $230 from $338) ahead of the Q1 report citing increasing patch pump competition for the downgrade as believes it will be difficult for Insulet shares to outperform with new patch pumps hitting the market in 2027. The firm added an upside 90-day catalyst watch on TNDM (stays Neutral rated) as believes the company's Q1 report will show continued progress on its reimbursement strategy which could be a "short squeeze" post the print.
Internet, Media & Telecom
- Internet Sector: WIX was downgraded to Market Perform from Market Outperform at Citizens following the company's Dutch Auction that retired 29.7% of shares outstanding but meaningfully reduced the company's cash position as it spent $1.617B to complete the auction.
- Media Sector: Pershing Square has proposed a combination with Universal Music Group (UMG.AG, UNVGY) that would move the listing into a US-based acquisition vehicle. It’s a deal that Bill Ackman’s fund said values the world’s biggest music label at a 78% premium to its last closing price; PSKY shares outperformed as increases authorized Class B common stock to 7B shares on April 7, 2026.
Hardware & Software movers:
- In Networking & Equipment: ANET was upgraded to Buy at Rosenblatt and raise tgt to $180 from $165 saying strong wins with Google & Anthropic improving growth visibility; maintaining share at Microsoft & Meta, gaining at Google; ~$5.4B deferred revenue and strong orders support upside. Evercore said today that back-end data center switching remains in full-blown hypergrowth mode, with the market up 224% Y/y to $3.7B and momentum showing no signs of slowing-especially as Ai infrastructure spending ramps and Ethernet gains ground at the expense of InfiniBand (says CSCO big market share winner this quarter, while ANET gives up ground in Cloud).
- In Opticals: AAOI shares active as B Riley noted today sees significant downside risks to this $324M pipeline. 1) Qualification hurdles as these remain "prequal" orders; AAOI has historically struggled with the rigorous qualification cycles required by hyperscalers. 2) Bloomberg recently reported that nearly 50% of planned U.S. data Centers face delays due to Grid constraints; it believes ORCL's aggressive build-out is particularly vulnerable.
- In Software, Hardware & Components: AAPL shares fell on reports the company is facing unexpected engineering setbacks during the test production phase of its first foldable iPhone, which could delay mass production and shipments by several months, per Nikkei Asia. However, Bloomberg later reported Apple’s foldable iPhone remains on track for September debut. Bloomberg reported PIMOC is in discussions with Bank of America (BAC) to help provide about $14B of debt financing to construct a massive ORCL data center in Michigan.
- In Cyber security: Anthropic on Tuesday released a preview of its new frontier model, Mythos, which it says will be used by a small coterie of partner organizations for cybersecurity work. In a previously leaked memo, the AI startup called the model one of its “most powerful” yet. The model’s limited debut is part of a new security initiative, dubbed Project Glasswing, in which more than 40 partner organizations will deploy the model for the purposes of “defensive security work” and to secure critical software, Anthropic said. Shares of cyber stocks CHKP, ZS, S, OKTA among movers on the headlines).
Semiconductors:
- ARM was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight, though raise PT to $150 from $135 saying Arm's move into chip making is strategically sound and aligns with the rise of agentic Ai. Reinforces the relevance of CPUs, but the commercial ramp will take time.
- ASML shares slipped early after U.S. lawmakers proposed a law that would add further semiconductor export curbs on China. The restrictions would target ASML’s deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine, which Chinese companies have so far been able to access.
- AVGO shares rose early after signs long-term deal with GOOGL to develop and supply future generations of custom AI chips and other components for the company's next-generation AI racks through 2031; AVGO also signed a deal with Anthropic to provide the AI startup access to about 3.5 gigawatts of AI computing capacity drawing on Google's AI processors, starting in 2027
- INTC joined the Terafab project with @SpaceX, @xAI, and @Tesla to help refactor silicon fab technology. Our ability to design, fabricate, and package ultra-high-performance chips at scale will help accelerate Terafab's aim to produce 1 TW/year of compute to power future advances in AI and robotics.