Early Look

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

U.S. futures are edging lower once again as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed back above 5% and oil prices stay elevated ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon where there is roughly an 85% chance of a Fed rate hike per fed fund futures. The 10 year note yield rose to 5.03%, its highest level since July 2007, which pushes the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage up to 7.17%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index was little changed, down -8 points to 63,484, the Shanghai Index fell -21 points to 3,864, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -250 pints to 24,667. In Europe, the German DAX is down -89 points to 25,354, while the FTSE 100 falls -45 points to 10,852. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.03%, surpassing its 2023 peak and reaching its highest level since 2007. Rising oil prices (which are higher again this morning), heavier government debt, and renewed inflation concerns are driving a broader global bond selloff, increasing pressure on equity valuations and borrowing costs. Bitcoin prices fall over -2.6% below $77,000 ahead of voting on Clarity Act later in the day, and the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday. The Clarity Act aims to create a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, and had stalled amid concerns of insufficient ethics and illicit finance safeguards. Brent crude oil prices rose more than 1% above $107 per barrel after attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure left the kingdom's East-West pipeline offline, raising fears that damage to energy infrastructure and transport routes could take longer to repair. In addition to the FOMC policy meeting tomorrow, the Bank of England is expected to hold steady on rates Thursday while the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates by 25bps. On the economic calendar, investors will monitor the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the 20-yr Bond Auction. Markets remain on edge after Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceXAI leaders all suggested it would be prudent to slow the rate at which they advance model capabilities amid mounting fears of misuse of artificial intelligence.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -152.09 points, or 0.29%, to 52,421.20
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -146.62 points, or 0.56%, to 26,186.41
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -11.70 points, or 0.40% to 2,892.24

• 8:30 AM ET                   Empire Manufacturing data for September
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury sells $18B in 20-yr notes
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy rate meeting (two day meeting)     
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: EPM TCOM

• Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference, 9/14-9/15
• H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC 28th Annual Global Investment Conference, 9/14-9/16, in New York
• Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, 9/14-9/16 in New York, NY
• Oppenheimer Fintech Leaders Conference, 9/15 in New York
• Oppenheimer AI Infrastructure Conference, 9/15 in New York
• Piper 5th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference, 9/14-9/15 in Nashville
• Stifel Immunology and Inflammation Forum, 9/15-9/16 (virtual)
• Truist Technology Conference - AI Transformation & Evolving Enterprise Debates, 9/15

• China Aug Retail Sales rose +0.4% y/y vs +0.8% consensus, China Aug Industrial output rose +5.2% y/y vs +4.8% consensus and China Aug Home Prices fell -0.1% m/m unchanged vs prior; -3% y/y vs -3.2% prior.
• Wells Fargo downgrades the US Technology Sector to Equal Weight from Overweight while upgraded the Healthcare sector to Overweight from Equal Weight.

• Dave & Busters (PLAY) Q2 adj. EPS ($0.27) vs. est. ($0.18); revenue $544.1Mm vs. est. $556.8Mm; adj. EBITDA $98.9Mm vs est $120.56Mm; comparable-store sales -2.9%.
• Etsy (ETSY) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer with a $90 price target citing the company's AI search benefits, product improvements, and app engagement for the upgrade.
• Lear Corp. (LEA) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan and cut tgt to $150 from $175 saying the shares are likely to be range-bound until the company's 2028 growth inflection nears.
• Magna (MGA) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan and cut tgt to $72 from $77 saying the company's large revenue base makes individual contract wins less impactful, and its limited non-auto exposure constrains above-market growth.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo and raise tgt to $525 from $450, after meeting with management saying the company is navigating industry headwinds better than expected and sees a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels.

• Radiant Logistics (RLGT) Q4 adj EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.07; Q4 revs $261.4M vs. est. $231.3M; Q4 adj EBITDA $10.4M and Q4 ADJ EBITDA margin 15.5%
• Sasol (SSL) signed an agreement to supply co-processed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to luxury tourism outfit, White Desert, for its polar trips to Antarctica, company officials said.

• Genworth Financial (GNW) said the court of appeal denies AXA appeal of trial court judgement rejecting contribution claim.
• Grab (GRAB) said it will acquire a 60% stake in BNPL service provider Atome Financial for $1.49 billion.

• Kestra Medical (KMTS) Q1 EPS ($0.75) vs. est. ($0.62); revenue $31.0Mm vs. est. $29.0Mm; gross margin 56.5%; adj. EBITDA loss ($24.0Mm) vs. est. ($24.1Mm); FY revenue guidance $141Mm vs. prior $137Mm and est $137Mm.
• ResMed (RMD) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital saying the company will continue benefiting from increased awareness and penetration of the global obstructive sleep apnea market.
• Veracyte (VCYT) announced its acquisition of Convergent Genomics. which includes $150M in upfront cash consideration and up to $30M in additional cash consideration tied to key milestones.
• Vera Therapeutics (VERA) TRUTAKNA stabilizes kidney function and cuts disease progression risk 76% in Phase 3 ORIGIN 3; at 52 weeks, mean eGFR change was -0.1 with TRUTAKNA vs. -5.7 with placebo; annualized eGFR slope through 104 weeks was -0.6 vs. -5.6, both p<0.0001.
• Waystar (WAY) shares rise after Reuters reports the company is exploring options, including a potential sale; the sale could return the healthcare software firm to private hands two years after going public in 2024.

• GlobalFoundries (GFS) files to sell 9.91M ordinary shares for holders.
• New York Times (NYT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim with an $82 price target.

Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

As energy prices continue to climb (oil, diesel) and Treasury yields extend gains (10-yr above 5% and 30-yr highest in about 20 years), U.S. stock markets remain pressured with Wall Street eagerly awaiting clarity from the Fed tomorrow where their interest rate policy meeting is expected to show a rate hike of 25 bps. Brent crude topped $108 per barrel after Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping threaten supply, with analysts warning of a sharp rally if a key Saudi pipeline remains offline beyond its five-to-seven-day inventory buffer. The 10-year Treasury yield has broken above 5% to its highest level since 2007, as markets price in a greater-than-92% probability of a Fed rate hike this week under Chair Warsh. Tack on Ai slowing growth concerns hitting the tech space yesterday (rebounding a bit today) after calls by some of the industry's biggest names to slow frontier AI development, from "extremely fast" to "only somewhat fast," not halt it. Today’s lone economic data point showed manufacturing in New York slow, with new orders falling but inflationary pressures rising. Early strength in energy (XLE) as oil rises and technology (XLK) as semis rebound following its tumble Monday, but the other nine S&P 500 sectors are lower, led by biggest drops in staples (XLP) and consumer discretionary (XLY). Expect choppy action again today ahead of the FOMC policy meeting tomorrow (then BOE on Thursday and BOJ on Friday).

• Restaurant sector: sector was broadly lower with notable declines for CMG, DRI, EAT, WING and others; PLAY shares fell after reported a substantial Q2 earnings miss, with revenue of $544.1M falling 2.3% below consensus and AEBITDA of $98.9M missing by 17.6% and EPS was loss of (-$0.27) versus consensus of $0.19; comparable sales improved sequentially to -2.9% from -5.4% in Q1, including improvement from -5.0% in June to -1.6% in July, but failed to quantify the Q3-to-date trend. Separately, Wells Fargo said they are getting serious about casual as they favor EAT into its Investor Day and said they are buying the TXRH dip; lean cautious into DRI FQ1 EPS.
• Beauty sector: ULTA was upgraded to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and raised the tgt to $525 from $450 saying ULTA is navigating industry headwinds better than expected. Post CFO meeting, they believe if the model were going to break...it would be happening by now (and it doesn't seem to be). ELF price tgt raised to $118 from $100 at Bank America and Reiterate Buy on higher estimates for Rhode noting Rhode is launching on Sept 30th in Sephora Europe; BAML estimate an opportunity of $150-$200M in sales from the region.

• DELL +4%; as Ai related plays seeing a rebound today (COHR, AMD, CIEN) in hardware and optical sectors along with semis as investors take profits in software names.
• ETSY +3%; was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer with a $90 price target citing the company's AI search benefits, product improvements, and app engagement for the upgrade.
• VRA +13%; shares rallied behind earnings as Q2 revs rose to $71.65M topping consensus of $66M while reiterated FY 2027 sales and operating margin guidance as sees FY27 sales between $255M-4270M and non-GAAP operating loss improvement of at least 50% vs prior year loss of $21.7M.
• WAY +9%; after Reuters reports the company is exploring options, including a potential sale; the sale could return the healthcare software firm to private hands two years after going public in 2024.

• AXON -8%; shares tumbled after the maker of Tasers, body cameras and drones announces public offering of $1B,  0% convertible bonds to mature Sept 15, 2031, saying it intends to use net offering proceeds for general purposes, including to support growth and for potential investments and acquisitions.
• COIN -6%; weakness in crypto related stocks as Bitcoin, Ethereum prices fall ahead of voting on Clarity Act later in the day, and the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday. The Clarity Act aims to create a regulatory framework for Cryptocurrencies, and had stalled thus far.
• ENVA -25%; after announced that it has withdrawn its applications with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System related to the proposed acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp; reaffirms year guidance
• PLAY -11%; after reported a substantial Q2 earnings miss, with revenue of $544.1M falling 2.3% below consensus and AEBITDA of $98.9M missing by 17.6% and EPS was loss of (-$0.27) versus consensus of $0.19; comparable sales improved sequentially to -2.9% from -5.4% in Q1.

Closing Recap

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

U.S. stocks finished near the lows heading into the September FOMC policy meeting tomorrow where expectations are high for the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps…but will they actually pull the trigger following CPI and PPI data that showed rates holding stubbornly high last week remains the question. The S&P 500 has now fallen five of the last six trading days in what is historically the worst month of the year for Wall Street as Treasury yields jumped across the board with the 10-year hitting above 5% for 20-year highs and oil prices continuing its push higher. Crypto assets and related stocks (MSTR, COIN) tumbled this afternoon (Bitcoin hit lows just below $75K) after the Clarity Act failed the procedural vote hurdle in the Senate today, which was seen as a long shot given lack of Democratic votes. Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto assets tumbled on the headlines. Meanwhile, oil and diesel prices continue to surge, along with treasury yields pressuring stock markets and impacting consumer spending (note lots of consumer sectors were hit today with retailers and restaurants falling). Banking stocks have also seen a sharp downturn in recent weeks, with names like JPM, Citi and Goldman tumbling as yields rise. It has been a quiet few days/weeks heading into this FOMC meeting and major averages have held in a tight range, but will tomorrow’s FOMC policy meeting shake things up? Will there be further hawkish commentary? Stay tuned!

Central Bank news this week plentiful: 1) the FOMC concludes its 2-day policy meeting Wednesday where expectations have risen sharply for a 25 bps rate hike to fight off inflation given surging oil and hotter CPI, PPI inflation data lately, but political pressure remains a potential pushback – especially ahead of mid-term elections in November. 2) The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25% this week, marking its 3rd hike in less than 10 months and the fastest pace of tightening since 1990. The move comes as the Yen remains weak, inflationary pressures persist, and Japanese bond yields continue to rise, with the BOJ trying to support the currency while keeping the rise in bond yields under control. 3) The Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday is not expected to make any changes to interest rates at this time.

• Gold prices edged lower again, as December gold declined -$19.10 or 0.44% to settle at $4,332.80 an ounce while silver prices fell -$0.28 or 0.44% to $63.86 an ounce. Gold fell to more than 1 month lows ahead of the U.S. Fed policy decision due on Wednesday. A combination of higher oil, inflation concerns and Treasury yields/the dollar moving higher still weighing on precious metals sentiment. Traders are currently pricing in a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The dollar climbed, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest since 2007.

• Beauty sector: ULTA was upgraded to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and raised the tgt to $525 from $450 saying ULTA is navigating industry headwinds better than expected. Post CFO meeting, they believe if the model were going to break...it would be happening by now (and it doesn't seem to be). ELF price tgt raised to $118 from $100 at Bank America and Reiterate Buy on higher estimates for Rhode noting Rhode is launching on Sept 30th in Sephora Europe; BAML estimate an opportunity of $150-$200M in sales from the region.
• Online Retail/Internet: ETSY was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer with a $90 price target citing the company's AI search benefits, product improvements, and app engagement for the upgrade; AMZN announced Prime Big Deal Days returns October 6–7, kicking off the season with 48 hours of Prime member-exclusive deals across more than 35 categories—all with fast, free delivery.
• Footwear retail sector: BOOT announced preliminary 2Q results in line with the Street as highlighted 2Q trends improving to +2% SSS growth in August and remaining at similar levels into September, with improvement across most major categories; said strength from new store openings should drive 2Q sales to the high end of the guidance range with EPS also expected toward the high end of the range.
• Restaurant sector: sector was broadly lower with notable declines for CMG, DRI, EAT, WING and others maybe on surging oil/higher rates which both directly impact consumer spending, but today was overly aggressive; PLAY shares fell after reported a substantial Q2 earnings miss, with revenue of $544.1M falling 2.3% below consensus and AEBITDA of $98.9M missing by 17.6% and EPS was loss of (-$0.27) versus consensus of $0.19; comparable sales improved sequentially to -2.9% from -5.4% in Q1, including improvement from -5.0% in June to -1.6% in July, but failed to quantify the Q3-to-date trend. Separately, Wells Fargo said they are getting serious about casual as they favor EAT into its Investor Day and said they are buying the TXRH dip; lean cautious into DRI FQ1 EPS.

• Industrial sector: MIDD upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan with $147 tgt as believes the recent sell-off was primarily driven by an underwhelming Q2 margin print that should improve in the coming quarters and as event-driven investors lightened/exited their holdings after the MFP spin-off in July.
• In Defense sector: AXON shares tumbled after the maker of Tasers, body cameras and drones announces public offering of $1B,  0% convertible bonds to mature Sept 15, 2031 saying it intends to use net offering proceeds for general purposes, including to support growth and for potential investments and acquisitions

• Insurance sector: mortgage insurance companies ACGL, ESNT, MTG, RDN, NMIH weakened after FHFA head Bill Pulte noted on X, “"If your Home is worth more, or you have paid the loan down far enough, you should be able to drop EXTRA Mortgage Insurance. Right now Fannie Mae will not let your loan company call and tell you that you may qualify because your home has gone up in value! You have to know to ask. Freddie Mac will let them call. That is crazy. We are fixing that. Fannie Mae will follow Freddie’s rule: if you may qualify to drop unnecessary extra Insurance because your home has gained value, they can contact you and walk you through how to cancel your PMI. You can stop paying for coverage you do not need and keep the money."
• Brokers & Exchanges: SCHW said net new assets brought to the company increased 46% versus August 2025 to reach $64.8B - a record for the month of August. Total client assets equaled $13.41T as of month-end August, up 19% from August 2025 and up 3% compared to July 2026. New brokerage accounts opened during the month totaled 424,000, an increase of 11% versus August 2025.
• Consumer lending sector: ENVA shares tumbled after announced that it has withdrawn its applications with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System related to the proposed acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp; reaffirms year guidance. GNW shares fell after a UK Court of Appeal denied AXA's appeal of a trial court judgment rejecting its contribution claim, finding Santander not liable for the vast majority of AXA's losses from payment protection insurance mis selling; Genworth says it is analyzing the judgment and evaluating next steps, including options for further appeals
• Payment sector: Goldman Sachs said they came away from Communacopia + Tech Conference with a constructive view on the Payments/FinTech sector noting highlights included resilient consumer spending, renewed enthusiasm around agentic commerce, and favorable credit and funding trends. The firm noted V and MA were highlighted as top picks given stable spending trends, accelerating value-added services growth, and their positioning as beneficiaries of agentic commerce. Buy Now Pay Later names AFRM and KLAR were also highlighted on strong secular growth, healthy credit conditions, and a favorable macro backdrop, while consumer fintechs CHYM and XYZ continue to benefit from wallet share gains, credit product strength, and regulatory tailwinds.

• CTNM shares fell after saying its experimental depression drug, co-developed with JNJ called JNJ-5120 or PIPE-307, did not show the required improvement in depression symptoms compared to a placebo; JNJ stated it continues to review the broader data from the study to decide the next steps for the medicine.
• GSK announced a deal to acquire a trispecific T cell-engager from Chimagen Biosciences targeting multiple myeloma, with a total potential value of up to $750 million.
• LLY said it will unveil Phase 2 data for eloraTZP, their latest triple-acting medicine combining the selective amylin receptor agonist  eloralintide and GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist tirzepatide.
• LLY was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Berenberg and raise tgt to $1,400 saying their 2026 RORI analysis confirms Eli Lilly's strong track record of delivering best-in class returns on investment.
• SION announced plans to advance its dual combination, NBD1 stabilizer SION-451 + SION-2222, into a Phase 2a proof-of-concept trial in cystic fibrosis in 1Q27 following a post-hoc analysis of the PreciSION CF Phase 2a study of NBD1 stabilizer SION-719.
• VERA kidney drug Trutakna shows strong final results in Phase 3 trial saying participants who received weekly injections of Trutakna saw their kidneys lose function at an annualized rate of 0.6 points compared to an annualized function loss of 5.6 points for patients receiving a placebo.

• Medical technology: TEM shares rallied after management said the company can sustain 25%+ growth for years. That comes as Tempus expands into genomic testing clinical data Pharma licensing Ai models digital pathology and recurring cancer monitoring.
• Medical devices: RMD was upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital saying the company will continue benefiting from increased awareness and penetration of the global obstructive sleep apnea market.
• Healthcare Services: AGL was upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein and raised tgt to $125 from $86 saying Agilon has been instituting a turnaround focused on risk taking discipline, coupled with incremental Medical cost improvements.

• Media Sector: NYT was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Guggenheim and raised tgt to $82 from $70 as their upward revisions to Q4 and 2027 forecasts reflect greater conviction that NYT can sustain low-double digit digital advertising growth over the next several quarters and deliver ~10% digital subscription growth next year (growing ARPU, total digital net adds 1.09mm+), and maintain cost discipline.
• Semiconductor sector: Chipmaker Altera has confidentially filed for an IPO in the U.S., according to a company statement. The offering could raise over $2 billion, potentially making it one of the largest semiconductor listings in recent years.

Street Recommendations

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

• MSTR Barclays raised the firm's price target on Strategy to $160 from $125 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm cites the recent perpetual stretch preferred stock stabilization along with higher bitcoin prices for the target boost.

• NGG Bernstein assumed coverage of National Grid with an Outperform rating and 1,310 GBp price target. The firm says National Grid offers "compelling" exposure to attractive regulated business lines at an "undemanding" valuation. The company has tilted its portfolio towards electricity and away from gas, offering a "highly attractive outlook underpinned by a decades-long decarbonization drive," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• IOT Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Samsara with an Overweight rating and $45 price target. Samsara's strong industrial software position, durable business model moats, large underpenetrated TAM, and expanding growth levers from faster innovation and its proprietary device network could drive sustained growth and upside to consensus estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PCOR Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Procore with an Overweight rating and $65 price target. Procore's leading end-to-end construction management platform, expanding TAM, and Procore AI-driven evolution into a System of Intelligence should support mid-teens revenue growth, rapid margin expansion, and 40% free cash flow per share CAGR through 2028, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BSY Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Bentley Systems with an Overweight rating and $37 price target. Bentley's mission-critical infrastructure engineering software, 99% gross and 110% net retention, pricing power, cross-selling, and exposure to macro upcycles and down-market expansion support durable double-digit growth alongside expanding operating and free cash flow margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• FTI Citi raised the firm's price target on TechnipFMC to $85 from $80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes the outlook for deepwater is "various shades of good" following the recent attacks on the Saudi east-west pipeline. Citi sees TechnipFMC's valuation multiple holding as its EBITDA growths in 2027 and 2028.
• HUN Citi analyst Patrick Cunningham resumed coverage of Huntsman with a Neutral rating and $11 price target. The firm sees a balanced risk/reward into the merger given the challenging cycle ahead.
• OLN Citi resumed coverage of Olin with a Neutral rating and $19 price target. The firm sees a balanced risk/reward into the merger given the challenging cycle ahead.

• DRS Guggenheim initiated coverage of Leonardo DRS with a Buy rating and $51 price target, which represents 42% upside potential. The company's product portfolio, which is proven, has been deployed in active theater, and offers all domain exposure, offers investors "an optimal balance of both new defense and old legacy defense exposure," the analyst tells investors.
• LHX Guggenheim analyst Michael Ciarmoli initiated coverage of L3Harris Technologies with a Buy rating and $365 price target, which represents 49% potential upside. LHX's product portfolio and overall domain exposure, spanning weapons/missile replenishment to modernization, is "uniquely situated to capitalize on all aspects of the current global defense spending tailwinds," the analyst tells investors.
• HXL Guggenheim initiated coverage of Hexcel with a Buy rating and $120 price target, which represents 29% upside potential. The firm believes a return to above the prior peak Airbus/Boeing production trajectory "bodes well" for Hexcel as "one of the last remaining aircraft OEM production pure-plays," the analyst tells investors.
• VSEC Guggenheim analyst Michael Ciarmoli initiated coverage of VSE Corp. with a Neutral rating and no price target. VSE has "catapulted itself" into one of the leading commercial aerospace aftermarket providers of distribution and repair capabilities over the past five years, but the firm believes the company is now entering a phase where it must start to turn the organic operational dials to drive financial performance rather than relying on M&A, the analyst tells investors.
• AIR Guggenheim initiated coverage of AAR Corp. with a Neutral rating and no price target. The company's transformation over the past three years has shifted its status in the marketplace and in the minds of investors, but the firm is "mindful" of the pressures currently impacting the global MRO market, notably a weakening in passenger traffic that may begin to impact airline MRO spending patterns, the analyst tells investors.
• HEI Guggenheim analyst Michael Ciarmoli initiated coverage of Heico with a Neutral rating no price target. Heico operates a highly differentiated best-of-breed operating model that "has long since been the envy of the commercial aerospace sector," but on a go forward basis the firm believes the potential for weakening or even normalizing global aviation metrics have the potential to place a lid on future FSG margin expansion.
• WWD Guggenheim initiated coverage of Woodward with a Buy rating and $404 price target, which represents 20% upside potential. Woodward offers investors "a compelling mix and near optimal balance" of secular growth trends, with exposure to commercial aerospace and defense, missiles, and data center power generation, the analyst tells investors.
• HWM Guggenheim analyst Michael Ciarmoli initiated coverage of Howmet Aerospace with a Buy rating and $350 price target, which represents 53% upside potential. The company's "competitive moat" along with secular tailwinds in commercial aerospace, defense, and power generation will drive upside versus Street expectations over the next 24 months, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RBC Guggenheim initiated coverage of RBC Bearings with a Buy rating and $600 price target, which represents 21% upside potential. RBC is one of the aerospace and defense industry's "best-of-breed compounders with a superior track record," says the analyst, who expects gross margin expansion and share gains to continue.
• MRCY Guggenheim analyst Michael Ciarmoli initiated coverage of Mercury Systems with a Buy rating and $115 price target, which represents 43% upside potential. The firm believes Mercury is positioned to benefit from global defense moderation trends due to its status as a merchant-supplier of critical, trusted, and secure mission compute technologies. The company will be a "key enabler" of next-generation radar, autonomy, electronic warfare and cyber resilience, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BWXT Guggenheim initiated coverage of BWX Technologies with a Buy rating and $192 price target. BWX offers investors "one of the more compelling and balanced ways to invest in the global nuclear renaissance" across both government and commercial markets, without having to assume the risk of a new-start unproven technology or operating model, the analyst tells investors. The firm believes the company's core monopolistic positioning with the U.S. Navy offers visibility and predictable growth, albeit at a low-single rate, while exposure to next generation government reactors, materials and fuels should help keep the Government Operations segment growth in a mid-to-high-single digit range.
• TDG Guggenheim initiated coverage of TransDigm with a Neutral rating and no price target. The firm is positive on TransDigm's legacy, but says a combination of factors are threatening the company's track record of aerospace aftermarket dominance. This may pressure TransDigm's growth, margins, and valuation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RDW Guggenheim initiated coverage of Redwire with a Neutral rating and no price target. At the intersection of space and unmanned technology, the firm believes Redwire is "uniquely positioned within the A&D complex," and should continue to find success and be capable of having teen-level revenue growth in the near-term, despite competition rising in these markets, the analyst tells investors. To get more positive on the name, the firm needs to see steady improvements in execution and consistent and reliable financial performance, the analyst added.
• NOC Guggenheim initiated coverage of Northrop Grumman with a Buy rating and $612 price target, which represents 18% potential upside. Northrop possesses a breadth of capabilities that spans many domains, technologies, platforms and while new entrants, along with the DOW's recent acquisition reform policies, do introduce moderate risks to the prime contractor legacy establishment, the firm does "not view this as an extinction-level event," the analyst tells investors.

• DOC Jefferies assumed coverage of Healthpeak Properties with a Hold rating with a price target of $21, down from $22. The firm says senior housing remains its preferred way to invest in healthcare real estate due to favorable demographics and limited new supply. Jefferies assumed coverage of the large-cap healthcare real estate investment trusts with a preference for senior housing today.
• HR Jefferies assumed coverage of Healthcare Realty Trust with a Hold rating and price target of $20, down from $21. The firm says senior housing remains its preferred way to invest in healthcare real estate due to favorable demographics and limited new supply. Jefferies assumed coverage of the large-cap healthcare real estate investment trusts with a preference for senior housing today.
• VTR Jefferies analyst Joe Dickstein assumed coverage of Ventas with a Buy rating and $102 price target. The firm says senior housing remains its preferred way to invest in healthcare real estate due to favorable demographics and limited new supply. Jefferies assumed coverage of the large-cap healthcare real estate investment trusts with a preference for senior housing today.
• WELL Jefferies assumed coverage of Welltower with a Buy rating and price target of $275, up from $261. The firm says senior housing remains its preferred way to invest in healthcare real estate due to favorable demographics and limited new supply. Jefferies assumed coverage of the large-cap healthcare real estate investment trusts with a preference for senior housing today.

• RPD JPMorgan downgraded Rapid7 to Underweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $12. The firm sees better risk/reward profiles elsewhere in the sector. It cites the stock's relative valuation for the downgrade. Rapid7 is still working through an executive and sales operation transition that will take several quarters to play out before its growth meaningfully improves, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan also views the company's peers as better positioned to capture the secular tailwinds across the security landscape.
• ADNT JPMorgan upgraded Adient to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $25, down from $28. The firm says automation, footprint optimization and lower restructuring costs offer a "meaningful opportunity" for Adient. The company should see $400M of onshoring wins ramping over the next years. The shares now screen favorably relative to peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• DAVE JPMorgan initiated coverage of Dave with an Overweight rating and $480 price target. The company has built an "impressive growth and profitability profile" by solving a core problem for consumers: the timing gap between when everyday Americans get paid and when their bills come due, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Dave is the fastest-growing, most profitable and among the most efficient companies it covers.
• APTV JPMorgan downgraded Aptiv to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $56, down from $65. The firm says insourcing of software and compute, "intense" China competition and slower battery electric vehicle adoption create greater uncertainty around the pace of Aptiv's above-market growth. The company has not yet established the same exposure to Chinese export platforms as it has to domestic China programs, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GTX JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Garrett Motion to $35 from $37 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The setup for auto suppliers remains defined by limited industry volume growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• THRM JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta upgraded Gentherm to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $48. The firm says Modine transforms Gentherm's end market profile and improves the quality of its growth. Gentherm also offers a steady pace of capital return, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says the company ranks as "top-tier" in the auto supplier sector, helped by "strong incremental margins, good regional diversity, solid organic growth and improving non-auto exposure."
• MGA JPMorgan downgraded Magna to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $72, down from $77. The company's large revenue base makes individual contract wins less impactful and its limited non-auto exposure constrains above-market growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes stronger non-auto traction or stabilization in Europe and China is needed for the shares to re-rate from here.
• VC JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta lowered the firm's price target on Visteon to $145 from $170 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The setup for auto suppliers remains defined by limited industry volume growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LEA JPMorgan downgraded Lear to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $150, down from $175. The shares are likely to be range-bound until the company's 2028 growth inflection nears, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Lear ranks weaker in the auto supplier group given its non-auto opportunities and near-term organic growth.

• MTDR KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Matador to $73 from $68 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With physical markets deteriorating, the firm is refreshing its commodity outlook, taking oil higher and natural gas lower. The Iran conflict is more like a regional conflict that is intensifying as China re-accelerates oil imports. On natural gas, a hot summer did not normalize inventories, KeyBanc adds. Gas demand for Power grew, but only slightly. Improving Permian gas egress may oversupply markets, as producers ramp volumes into year-end 2026 and an El Nino winter.
• MUR KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Murphy Oil to $47 from $43 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With physical markets deteriorating, the firm is refreshing its commodity outlook, taking oil higher and natural gas lower. The Iran conflict is more like a regional conflict that is intensifying as China re-accelerates oil imports. On natural gas, a hot summer did not normalize inventories, KeyBanc adds. Gas demand for Power grew, but only slightly. Improving Permian gas egress may oversupply markets, as producers ramp volumes into year-end 2026 and an El Nino winter.
• PR KeyBanc analyst Tim Rezvan raised the firm's price target on Permian Resources to $28 from $25 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With physical markets deteriorating, the firm is refreshing its commodity outlook, taking oil higher and natural gas lower. The Iran conflict is more like a regional conflict that is intensifying as China re-accelerates oil imports. On natural gas, a hot summer did not normalize inventories, KeyBanc adds. Gas demand for Power grew, but only slightly. Improving Permian gas egress may oversupply markets, as producers ramp volumes into year-end 2026 and an El Nino winter.
• SM KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on SM Energy to $46 from $39 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With physical markets deteriorating, the firm is refreshing its commodity outlook, taking oil higher and natural gas lower. The Iran conflict is more like a regional conflict that is intensifying as China re-accelerates oil imports. On natural gas, a hot summer did not normalize inventories, KeyBanc adds. Gas demand for Power grew, but only slightly. Improving Permian gas egress may oversupply markets, as producers ramp volumes into year-end 2026 and an El Nino winter.
• TALO KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Talos Energy to $23 from $21 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. With physical markets deteriorating, the firm is refreshing its commodity outlook, taking oil higher and natural gas lower. The Iran conflict is more like a regional conflict that is intensifying as China re-accelerates oil imports. On natural gas, a hot summer did not normalize inventories, KeyBanc adds. Gas demand for Power grew, but only slightly. Improving Permian gas egress may oversupply markets, as producers ramp volumes into year-end 2026 and an El Nino winter.

• SNX Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on TD Synnex to $334 from $374 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Despite reporting a "blowout" May quarter, TD Synnex has underperformed the S&P by five points over the last three months as multiple compression and worsening sentiment for the Hyve business has more than offset positive EPS revisions, the analyst tells investors. The firm believes fiscal Q3 earnings should help the story regain momentum due to upside versus the Street and "robust" Hyve growth, the analyst added.

• ZBRA Needham transferred coverage to analyst Robert Jamieson who raised the firm's price target on Zebra Technologies to $435 from $410 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company spent much of second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 in the penalty box due to negative sentiment around the Elo Touch acquisition and Memory inflation headwinds, and while the team has navigated tariffs and memory inflation headwinds well, and executed attractive and accretive M&A, its absolute next-12-months EBITDA multiple has de-rated, the analyst tells investors in a research note. From here, the management will continue to navigate memory environment via a multi-pronged approach, capture additional synergies from Elo Touch, which should collectively drive growth and margin expansion and be rewarded with a higher multiple, the firm added.
• SYM Needham transferred coverage to who lowered the firm's price target on Symbotic to $60 from $75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The recent underperformance has been entirely driven by multiple compression, but the firm sees a number of positive catalysts that could drive a re-rating in shares - margin upside, Exol customer announcements, SymMicro acceptance, and new customer wins - which far outweigh the negatives, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• VSH Oppenheimer analyst Christopher Glynn initiated coverage of Vishay with an Outperform rating and $42 price target. Robust sequential revenue trends pair with accelerating book-to-bill amid healthy secular and cyclical backdrops, the analyst tells investors. Under CEO Joel Skejkal and CFO Dave McConnell, the company "continues enacting and increasingly benefiting from transformational strategies and investments," the analyst added.

• WFG Raymond James analyst Daryl Swetlishoff upgraded West Fraser Timber to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $85, up from $75. Lumber equities offer attractive upside even without a U.S. housing recovery, as years of depressed demand have driven supply-side rationalization and improved market balance, while valuations at or below tangible book value provide free optionality to a housing and repair/renovation recovery, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MERC Raymond James lowered the firm's price target on Mercer to 40c from 75c and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm says that with weaker residual realizations and rising handling costs, an increasing number of sawmills are unable to fully utilize installed capacity even as lumber pricing recovers. This represents an "underappreciated structural constraint" on North American lumber supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As such, Raymond James expects the industry's supply response to be materially more muted versus prior cycles.

• CNP RBC Capital analyst Stephen D'Ambrisi initiated coverage of CenterPoint Energy with a Sector Perform rating and $40 price target. The firm says consensus estimates are already at the high end of management's 7%-9% annual earnings growth guidance through 2030. In addition, the stock trades at a 9% premium to CenterPoint's large-cap regulated peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC believes further valuation expansion is difficult despite a de-risked Texas regulatory construct.
• PPL RBC Capital analyst Stephen D'Ambrisi initiated coverage of PPL Corp. with a Sector Perform rating and $35 price target. The firm says the challenging Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland environment for utilities, Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro's more cautious stance on data center development, and the probability-weighted nature of the Kentucky load pipeline mean the sources of PPL's upside remain "somewhat unclear." RBC awaits more clarity before getting more positive on the shares.
• SKE RBC Capital analyst Harrison Reynolds resumed coverage of Skeena Resources with an Outperform rating and C$64 price target. Skeena is building one of the highest-grade open-pit precious metals mines globally in British Columbia's Golden Triangle, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says initial production is on track for Q2 of 2027 with construction well advanced. RBC expects multiple expansion as Skeena transitions from developer to producer.
• MCD RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on McDonald's to $290 from $295 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. At the company's Investor Day next Wednesday, the firm expects the management will lay out their NEXT strategy in detail, set new financial targets through 2030, and share details on the upcoming remodel program and co-investment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The Investor Day comes at a time when long-only interest in restaurants remains depressed as macro pressures weigh on SSS growth, the firm added.
• COST RBC Capital keeps a Sector Perform rating and $1,000 price target on Costco ahead of its Q4 results. The firm has updated its model to reflect reported Q4 comp sales and store count as well as refreshed FX and fuel assumptions, modeling Q4 total revenue growth at 11% vs. 12% prior, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds it expects core gross margin pressure due to higher fuel and transportation costs to be offset by tariff refunds and a modest LIFO tailwind.

• CPT UBS analyst Ami Probandt lowered the firm's price target on Camden Property to $105 from $106 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after assuming coverage of the name. Coastal apartment REITs are gaining momentum as stable demand and moderating supply drive accelerating rent growth and support continued strength into 2027, while Sunbelt fundamentals appear to have bottomed but remain unproven amid leasing competition, weaker job growth, and potential new supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CSR UBS lowered the firm's price target on Centerspace to $68 from $70 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after assuming coverage of the name. Coastal apartment REITs are gaining momentum as stable demand and moderating supply drive accelerating rent growth and support continued strength into 2027, while Sunbelt fundamentals appear to have bottomed but remain unproven amid leasing competition, weaker job growth, and potential new supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ESS UBS analyst Ami Probandt raised the firm's price target on Essex Property Trust to $286 from $278 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after assuming coverage of the name. Coastal apartment REITs are gaining momentum as stable demand and moderating supply drive accelerating rent growth and support continued strength into 2027, while Sunbelt fundamentals appear to have bottomed but remain unproven amid leasing competition, weaker job growth, and potential new supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• IRT UBS lowered the firm's price target on Independence Realty Trust to $18 from $19 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after assuming coverage of the name. Coastal apartment REITs are gaining momentum as stable demand and moderating supply drive accelerating rent growth and support continued strength into 2027, while Sunbelt fundamentals appear to have bottomed but remain unproven amid leasing competition, weaker job growth, and potential new supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MAA UBS lowered the firm's price target on MAA to $129 from $132 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after assuming coverage of the name. Coastal apartment REITs are gaining momentum as stable demand and moderating supply drive accelerating rent growth and support continued strength into 2027, while Sunbelt fundamentals appear to have bottomed but remain unproven amid leasing competition, weaker job growth, and potential new supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• UDR UBS analyst Ami Probandt lowered the firm's price target on UDR to $41 from $42 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Coastal apartment REITs are gaining momentum as stable demand and moderating supply drive accelerating rent growth and support continued strength into 2027, while Sunbelt fundamentals appear to have bottomed but remain unproven amid leasing competition, weaker job growth, and potential new supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CAKE Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Cheesecake Factory to $105 from $90 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes shares are up 40% in three months as recent trends sharply accelerated via successful new App, viral social media marketing, lower priced Bowls & Bites, and mall traffic improvement. While Wells commends Cheesecake Factory and re-rate is warranted, the firm acknowledges that it "simply missed this one."
• CLLS Wells Fargo analyst Nick Abbott lowered the firm's price target on Cellectis to $3 from $4 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company is pivoting to cardiometabolic opportunities in apolipoprotein C-III and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, following challenges for allogeneic chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapies in B-cell cancer space. New programs are in preclinical development and Wells awaits non-human primate data to derisk transcription activator-like effector-based approaches.

• WCN Wolfe Research assumed coverage of Waste Connections with an Outperform rating and $204 price target.
• RSG Wolfe Research analyst Nigel Coe assumed coverage of Republic Services with a Peer Perform rating.
• WM Wolfe Research analyst Nigel Coe assumed coverage of WM with a Peer Perform rating.
• FERG Wolfe Research assumed coverage of Ferguson with a Peer Perform rating.
• MSM Wolfe Research analyst Nigel Coe assumed coverage of MSC Industrial with a Peer Perform rating.
• GFL Wolfe Research assumed coverage of GFL Environmental with an Outperform rating and $77 price target.
• XYL Wolfe Research assumed coverage of Xylem with a Peer Perform rating.
• GWW Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Grainger with a Peer Perform rating.
• FAST Wolfe Research analyst Nigel Coe assumed coverage of Fastenal with an Underperform rating and $51 price target.
• CNM Wolfe Research assumed coverage of Core & Main with an Outperform rating and $63 price target.
• ITT Wolfe Research assumed coverage of ITT with an Outperform rating and $272 price target.
• SPXC Wolfe Research analyst Nigel Coe assumed coverage of SPX Technologies with an Outperform rating and $250 price target.
• HAYW Wolfe Research assumed coverage of Hayward with a Peer Perform rating.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: HYFT KMTS PLAY RLGT

• H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC 28th Annual Global Investment Conference, 9/14-9/16, in New York
• Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, 9/14-9/16 in New York, NY
• Piper 5th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference, 9/14-9/15 in Nashville
• China Retail Sales, Industrial Output, Houe Prices data

• 8:30 AM ET                   Empire Manufacturing data for September
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury sells $18B in 20-yr notes
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy rate meeting (two day meeting)     
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: EPM TCOM

• Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference, 9/14-9/15
• H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC 28th Annual Global Investment Conference, 9/14-9/16, in New York
• Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, 9/14-9/16 in New York, NY
• Oppenheimer Fintech Leaders Conference, 9/15 in New York
• Oppenheimer AI Infrastructure Conference, 9/15 in New York
• Piper 5th Annual Growth Frontiers Conference, 9/14-9/15 in Nashville
• Stifel Immunology and Inflammation Forum, 9/15-9/16 (virtual)
• Truist Technology Conference - AI Transformation & Evolving Enterprise Debates, 9/15

• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M Ex: Autos for Aug
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business inventories for July
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for September
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy rate meeting (two day meeting concludes)
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC flows for July

• Earnings After the Close: ALMU LEN

• H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC 28th Annual Global Investment Conference, 9/14-9/16, in New York
• Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, 9/14-9/16 in New York, NY
• Stifel Immunology and Inflammation Forum, 9/15-9/16 (virtual)
• Wells Fargo PP Texas Power & Gas Tour, 9/16-9/17, in Houston, TX

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: None

• Bank America 2026 Global Real Estate Conference, 9/15-9/17
• Oppenheimer 4th Annual Targeted Radiopharma Therapies in Oncology Summit, 9/17 in New York
• Wells Fargo PP Texas Power & Gas Tour, 9/16-9/17, in Houston, TX

• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization for August
• 10:00 AM ET                 Leading Index M/M for August
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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