Early Look

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Following a strong rebound in U.S stock on Wednesday, U.S. futures are looking mixed as Wall Street awaits monthly jobs report tomorrow morning and digests the latest news in the Middle East, as the U.S./Israel–Iran war entered its sixth day, and the conflict has widened beyond Gulf states and into Asia. Strong earnings results, guidance and commentary on AI partnerships helped push shares of semiconductor chip maker Broadcom (AVGO) higher last night, but Nasdaq futures are flat. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rebounded 1,032 points to 55,278, the Shanghai Index rose 26 points to 4,108, and the Hang Seng Index gained 71 points to 25,321. The Korean Kospi, which tumbled into “bear market” territory in just 3 days (20% move), rebounded nearly 10% last night. In Europe, the German DAX is up 29 points to 24,234, while the FTSE 100 is up 16 points to 10,584. Bitcoin prices stall after surging above $72,000 yesterday in a strong rebound. China said it would inject 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) into state-owned banks this year to guard against systemic risks, and boost financing for technology companies amid intensifying U.S. rivalry. The measures were outlined in the annual government work report released at the opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's rubber-stamp parliament. Treasury yields are rising for a 4^th day and the dollar edges higher along with oil.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.14 points, or 0.49%, to 48,739.41
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 290.79 points, or 1.29%, to 22,807.48
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 27.66 points, or 1.06% to 2,636.01

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 215K
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.85M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for January…est. +0.2%
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for January…est. +0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                   Nonfarm productivity for Q4…est. +1.9%
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q4, preliminary…est.+2.0%
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data…est. (-121 bcf)

• Earnings After the Close: AEYE AKA ASLE COO COOK COST ERO EVC GAP GDYN GEVO GPRO GWRE III IOT MEOH MRVL NX OPRX PBR PRTS SOBO

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -2.4% vs -6.6% last week. Bulls fall to 33.1% from 33.2%, Neutrals rise to 31.4% from 27%, Bears fall to 35.5% from 39.8%.

• ChargePoint (CHPT) Q4 revs rose 7% y/y to $109.32M vs. est. $104.7M, though guides Q1 revenue $90M-$100M, below consensus $104.1M; Q4 GAAP gross margin was 31% and non-GAAP gross margin was 33%.
• Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Q2 adj EPS $0.25 vs est ($0.30), adj EBITDA $38.2Mm vs est $26.22Mm on revs $874.8Mm vs est $864.35Mm, restaurant comps -7.1%, retail comps -9.2%; guides FY revs $3.24-3.27B vs est $3.25B, adj EBITDA $85-100Mm vs est $91.01Mm.
• Grocery Outlet (GO) Q4 adj EPS $0.19 vs est $0.21, adj EBITDA $68Mm vs est $72.02Mm on revs $1.22B vs est $1.223B; guides FY net new stores +30-33, comps -2.0% to flat, gr mgn 29.7-30.0%, adj EBITDA $220-235Mm vs est $273.99Mm, adj EPS $0.45-0.55 vs est $0.81.
• StubHub (STUB) Q4 EPS loss (-$1.56) and GMS sales $2.3B and revs $449M (est. $485M); sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $400M-$420M; sees 2026 GMS of $9.9B-$10.1B and 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $400M-$420M; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $63M, representing a 14% margin.

• Robinhood (HOOD) launched a new credit card for high-income customers on Wednesday, as the trading platform will charge $695 per year for the Platinum card, while offering users cashback and other benefits worth $3,000, it said. American Express' Platinum card carries a fee of $895, while JPMorgan's Chase Sapphire Reserve charges $795. Both also offer a range of premium perks worth $3,500 and $2,700, respectively.
• Webull Corp. (BULL) Q4 revs rose 50% y/y to $165.2M and adj Ebit $21.6M; Q4 Trading-related revenue increased 56% y/y and total operating expenses increased 55% y/y; said marks first full year as public company with record revenue of $571M and record net deposits of $8.6B, representing a 46% and 91% increase respectively; Registered users increased 15% year-over-year to 26.8 million users.
• Bank America reinstates coverage of Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Block (XYZ), Affirm (AFRM) and Klarna (KLAR) with Buy ratings and a Neutral on PayPal (PYPL) saying their view on the sector is "broadly constructive," supported by steady payments volume growth, rising digital commerce penetration, and improving cross-border trends.

• Ardent Health (ARDT) Q4 EPS $0.32 vs est $0.34, adj EBITDA $134Mm vs est $130.47Mm on revs $1.605B vs est $1.631B; guides FY revs $6.4-6.7B vs est $6.651B, adj EBITDA $485-535Mm vs est $527.2Mm and EPS $0.90-1.27 vs est $1.34.
• Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN) Q4 adj EPS ($0.06) vs est $0.03, adj EBITDA $4.067Mm vs est $6.675Mm on revs $236.761Mm vs est $254.29Mm; guides Q1 revs $235-240Mm vs est $256.77Mm, adj EBITDA $4.0-5.0Mm vs est $6.315Mm and adj EPS ($0.06)-($0.04) vs est $0.01.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) said it had rolled out a platform to ‌help employers connect with organizations offering low-cost ‌benefits and comprehensive obesity-care programs, aiming to widen access to its ​blockbuster weight-loss drug, Zepbound.
• Enhabit (EHAB) Q4 EPS $0.14 on revs $270.4M, both in-line with consensus; Home health cost per patient day decreased 3.5% y/y; Hospice ADC grew 9.9% y/y.
• Niagen Biosciences (NAGE) Q4 EPS $0.05 vs est $0.02, adj EBITDA $4.1Mm vs est $3.45Mm on sales $33.8Mm vs est $31.7Mm, gross mgn 64.1%; guides FY revs +10-15% vs est +20%, gr mgn up slight y/y.
• PepGen (PEPG) announced regulatory updates related to the Freedom2 trial. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has placed a partial clinical hold on the Freedom2-DM1 Phase 2 multiple ascending dose, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial of PGN-EDODM1 in patients with myotonic dystrophy type 1.
• Veeva Systems (VEEV) Q4 adj EPS $2.06 vs est $1.93, adj Outperform in $366.5Mm vs est $351.08Mm on revs $835.951Mm vs est $810.6Mm; guides Q1 revs $855-858Mm vs est $847.22Mm and adj Op Inc $378-381Mm vs est $380.19Mm; sees FY revs $3.585-3.6B vs est $3.56B and adj Op Inc about $1.59B vs est $1.572B.

• Iren Limited (IREN) said it entered into purchase agreements for over 50,000 Nvidia (NVDA) B300 GPUs that will expand its total fleet to 150,000 GPUs. Iren expects to deploy the additional GPUs in phases through H2 2026 across its existing air-cooled data Centers in Mackenzie, British Columbia and Childress, Texas. The 150,000 GPU fleet is expected to support Ai Cloud annualized run-rate revenue of over $3.7B by the end of 2026. Separately, Iren Limited announced an up to $6B "at-the-market" equity share sell program.
• Trade Desk (TTD) shares jump overnight after a report in The Information said they have held early talks with OpenAI regarding a partnership to help the AI tool sell ads, The Information reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The talks suggest that OpenAI will initially look to external partners to help it sell ads and ramp up its business, the report states. https://tinyurl.com/3er3j5db
• Nvidia (NVDA) has stopped production of its second-most advanced artificial intelligence chips, known as H200 chips, intended for the Chinese market, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.
• JD.com (JD) missed market estimates for quarterly revenue as reported 352.3 billion yuan ($51.12 billion) in Q4, compared with analysts' average estimate of 353.86 billion yuan.
• Ooma (OOMA) Q4 EPS $0.34 tops consensus $0.31 and revs $74.6M vs. est. $71.87M; sees FY27 EPS $1.26-$1.31, vs. consensus $1.26 and sees FY27 revenue $321M-$325M, consensus $319.33M
• Okta Inc. (OKTA) Q4 adj EPS $0.90 vs est $0.85 on revs $761Mm vs est $748.8Mm; guides Q1 revs $749-753Mm vs est $754.61Mm and adj EPS $0.84-0.86 vs est $0.87; sees FY revs $3.17-3.19B vs est $3.172B and adj EPS $3.74-3.82 vs est $3.68.
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.03), in-line with consensus and revs $1.9M vs. est. $2.34M; Q4 Operating loss for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was $22.6M.
• SES AI Corp. (SES) Q4 EPS ($0.04) vs est ($0.05) on revs $4.562Mm vs est $6.643Mm.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, March 05, 2026

U.S. stock index futures are down early as bombing of Tehran intensified in the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, sending oil prices higher again and raising inflation fears once again as precious metals, stocks decline while the dollar and Treasury yields climb. Only Energy and Technology are higher with the other nine S&P 500 sectors in negative territory, and steep losses in defensive Healthcare, Utilities, REITs, and Consumer Staples. The US/Iran war enters its 6^th day and the impact on oil prices is spreading to shipping and inflation fears. A positive for the market was Broadcom (AVGO) earnings after the company forecast its artificial intelligence chip revenue would exceed $100 billion next year. Lower expectations of Fed interest rates cuts is also not helping market sentiment given rising Treasury yields on inflation fears (as energy prices remain elevated) and stronger US economic data. The yield on 10-year Treasury note last up 5 basis points at 4.13%, on track for a 4^th straight day of increases after dropping below 4% last week. Gold and silver prices reversed course, erasing earlier gains as the rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar pressured prices, and concerns that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could drive up inflation grew. In sector news, huge gains in online travel/delivery related plays (EXPE, BKNG, ABNB, DASH, CART) as Mizuho noted this morning ChatGPT's pivot away from on-platform shopping checkout, if true, could spell the beginning of the end of major disruption fears for Internet marketplace businesses. Software (IGV) another bright spot this morning extending recent bounce after falling more than -20% to start the year with big bounces in likes of MSFT, ORCL, CRM, SNOW,  MDB, etc.

• January import prices rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus and December +0.2% while Jan export prices +0.6% higher than the consensus +0.3% and in-line with Dec +0.6% (prev +0.3%). January non-petroleum import prices +0.4%,year-over-year +1.3%.
• Weekly Jobless Claims unchanged at 213,000 and vs. consensus 215,000 from 213,000 prior week; the 4-week moving average fell to 215,750 from 220,500 prior week and continued claims climbed to 1.868M from 1.822M prior week and vs. consensus 1.850M.
• US layoff announcements plunged to 48,307 in February – less than half January's monster spike (highest since 2009) per Challenger. Down 72% from last February and hiring plans doubled to 12,755 from January.
• China cuts 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5%-5%, lowest in decades; Premier Li acknowledges 'difficulties and challenges' as Beijing strives for 2035 economic goal.

• Insurance Sector: Goldman Sachs upgraded AIG to Buy from Neutral (PT to $90 from $83) and downgraded ALL to Neutral from Buy (PT to $231 from $238) while saying they favor AON, CB, RYAN in P&C Insurance sector as the firm introduces a framework to evaluate the Ai revenue and expense risk – and opportunities – for P&C insurers. On the revenue side, the Ai infrastructure buildout (new data Centers, Cyber Insurance) is an incremental revenue opportunity, but GSCO thinks potential profit pool disruption is greater than the opportunity. Best-to-worst positioned subsectors, in order: commercial insurers, Insurance Brokers, reinsurers, and personal lines.
• In Apparel Retailers: AEO shares slide on mixed results as Q4 sales $1.76B tops $1.74B views but comp sales rose 8% vs. est. around 9% growth and said most of its profit will be generated in the second half of the year; VSCO shares also weak on mixed as Q4 EPS and sales topped consensus and revs for Q1 and year also above views (FY26 revs $6.85B-$6.95B, vs. consensus $6.77B), but comments about free cash flow weighed.
• In Entertainment Industry sector: STUB shares fell after reported Q4 GMS and EBITDA that respectively came in 6% and 1% below consensus, while the company reset 2026 expectations as 2026 GMS guidance of $9.9B 10.1B compared to consensus of $12.1B and 2026 EBITDA guidance of $400M-$420M vs. consensus of $691M. They said StubHub is slowing its roll-out of Direct Issuance and advertising as it further optimizes both products while it continues to lap all-in pricing headwinds through May 2026. TKO downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform at Wolfe Research saying prior to the TKO merger, WWE was a volatile trading stock driven by Media rights renewals. Through years of volatility, intrinsic value appreciated at double-digit annual rates. WWE was a sneaky compounder, and TKO's executives (and bullish Wolfe Research) capitalized.

• BURL +3%; as Q4 sales grew 11% y/y to $3.64B above the $3.57B estimate as adjusted EPS rose 21% to $4.99 (est. $4.75) and Q4 comp sales rose 4% y/y and guided year EPS/sales well above consensus at $10.95-$11.45 EPS vs. est. $9.80 and sales growth of 8%-10% with comp sales rising 1%-3%.
• CF +8%; among top gainers in the S&P 500 are chemicals as US/Israel strikes on Iran have potential to bolster Nitrogen pricing for at least 1H26, providing further upside for North American producers, given the strain on LNG in the EU (MOS, NTR, etc.)
• OKTA +9%; reported strong Q4/26 results with 12% cRPO growth vs. 9% guidance along with new product traction (~30% of 4Q bookings/~40% ACV uplift), while Q1 guidance was slightly below the Street ($749-753Mm vs est $754.61Mm).
• TTD +18%; shares jumped after The Information said they have held early talks with OpenAI regarding a partnership to help the AI tool sell ads, citing people familiar with the matter. The talks suggest that OpenAI will initially look to external partners to help it sell ads and ramp up its business,. https://tinyurl.com/3er3j5db

• IREN -7%; shares slumped after announced an up to $6B "at-the-market" equity share sell program, while also announced it has entered into purchase agreements for over 50,000 NVDA B300 GPUs that will expand its total fleet to 150,000 GPUs.
• OLPX -24%; shares tumble as the hair products company warned of a weak Q1, with consumer demand expected to be weighted toward the second half of the year as strategic initiatives take effect.
• PEPG -18%; announced an update on their DM1 MAD study (FREEDOM2) in the US, which has been put on partial clinical hold here as it progresses and even dose-escalates in the UK, Canada and elsewhere
• RGTI -9%; Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.03), in-line with consensus and revs $1.9M vs. est. $2.34M; Q4 Operating loss for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was $22.6M.
• STUB -13%; shares fell after reported Q4 GMS and EBITDA that respectively came in 6% and 1% below consensus, while the company reset 2026 expectations as 2026 GMS guidance of $9.9B 10.1B compared to consensus of $12.1B and 2026 EBITDA guidance of $400M-$420M vs. consensus of $691M

Closing Recap

Thursday, March 05, 2026

U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday as the roller coaster ride continued following another surge in oil prices and gasoline prices are putting a serious dent on investor optimism, raising inflation concerns and lowering expectations of any near term rate cuts given the unknown timeframe of the U.S./Israel and Iran conflict. After WTI crude jumped 8.5% and Brent over 5%, reports late day said the U.S. Treasury is expected to announce measure as soon as Thursday to combat climbing energy prices that includes using oil futures market. Not only are markets worrying about the surging energy costs as being inflationary, but if prices remain elevated or continue to climb, then recession talk will most likely start hitting markets as well. Dow Transports tumbled around -3% today holding above the 19,000 level with big declines in names like UP, truckers and airlines on surging energy costs impacting margins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,000 points before paring losses, the Smallcap Russell 2000 nearly 2%. Stocks took another leg lower around noon, with the S&P breaking below 6,800 (but closed higher), led by NVDA and AMD after media reports stated that the U.S. is drafting rules that would require government approval before AI chips from companies like NVDA & AMD can be shipped globally. The few pockets of strength today included a further rebound in software, chemicals, online travel, and energy, but overall market breadth was notably favoring decliners over advancers heading into tomorrow’s jobs report.

Not all sectors are seeing weakness due to the U.S./Israel conflict with chemical producers like fertilizers (CF, MOS), WLK) strikes on Iran have potential to bolster Nitrogen pricing for at least 1H26, providing further upside for North American producers, given the strain on LNG in the EU. Also, shares of DOW, LYB, WLK and others have rallied amid the significant recent changes in the global polyethylene market due to the Iran conflict for the upgrade as BMO Capital noted the news has temporary shuttered 12%-13% of the world's polyethylene supply, tightening supply. Not related to the war, but shares of online travel (EXPE, ABNB, BKNG) saw big gains along with other Internet retail marketplaces (MELI, DASH, CART), after a report by The Information last night said that OpenAI is scaling back its plan to introduce shopping directly inside ChatGPT and will pivot towards having checkouts take place inside of apps that plug into the platform (easing investor concern around AI-enabled disintermediation on the sector).

Weekly Sentiment readings: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index rose to 79.29 from 74.93 last week (which was the first Reading in the 70s since last July) - 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 was the highest since 7-3-24 - 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 - Last Quarter Average (Q4) of 92.26. 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -2.4% vs -6.6% last week. Bulls fall to 33.1% from 33.2%, Neutrals rise to 31.4% from 27%, Bears fall to 35.5% from 39.8%.

• January import prices rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus and December +0.2% while Jan export prices +0.6% higher than the consensus +0.3% and in-line with Dec +0.6% (prev +0.3%). January non-petroleum import prices +0.4%,year-over-year +1.3%.
• Weekly Jobless Claims unchanged at 213,000 and vs. consensus 215,000 from 213,000 prior week; the 4-week moving average fell to 215,750 from 220,500 prior week and continued claims climbed to 1.868M from 1.822M prior week and vs. consensus 1.850M.
• US layoff announcements plunged to 48,307 in February – less than half January's monster spike (highest since 2009) per Challenger. Down 72% from last February and hiring plans doubled to 12,755 from January.
• China cuts 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5%-5%, lowest in decades; Premier Li acknowledges 'difficulties and challenges' as Beijing strives for 2035 economic goal.

• April gold prices fell -$56.00, or -1.09%, to settle at $5,078.70 an ounce while May silver prices fell -$1.00, or -1.21%, to settle at $82.18 an ounce, pressured by the rising US dollar (DXY +0.3% above 99) and rising Treasury yields. U.S. Treasury yields climbed for a fourth straight day as the war in Iran put upward pressure on oil prices, stoking concerns about rising inflation and dampening expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 5 basis points to 4.132% after hitting a three-week high of 4.15%. The yield has shot up more than 17 basis points over the past four days.

• In Club Retailers: BJ forecasts FY26 profit below estimates as sees EPS $4.40-$4.60, below analysts' average estimate of $4.65 after beats Q4 profit estimates for the 11th straight quarter helped by growth in membership, digital sales and traffic; better-than-expected comparable sales and earnings during the recent quarter, driven by gas profit upside and slightly offset by heavier-than-anticipated SG&A costs.
• In Apparel Retailers: AEO shares slide on mixed results as Q4 sales $1.76B tops $1.74B views but comp sales rose 8% vs. est. around 9% growth and said most of its profit will be generated in the second half of the year; VSCO shares also weak on mixed as Q4 EPS and sales topped consensus and revs for Q1 and year also above views (FY26 revs $6.85B-$6.95B, vs. consensus $6.77B), but comments about free cash flow weighed.
• In Grocers: GO was downgraded at both Jefferies and Telsey which reflects disappointing Q4 results and 2026 guidance as top/bottom line missed and guided FY adj EBITDA $220-235Mm vs est $273.99Mm, adj EPS $0.45-0.55 vs est $0.81 as heavier promos to prop up volumes came at expense of margins and growth. KR posted mixed Q4 results as EPS beat and revenue came up short of estimates while said sees Q1 identical sales ex-fuel at low end of FY guidance and sees 2026 identical sales, excluding fuel, to grow 1%-2%, below 2% estimate.
• In Consumer Products: OLPX shares tumble as the hair products company warned of a weak Q1, with consumer demand expected to be weighted toward the second half of the year as strategic initiatives take effect.

• In Autos: BYDDF launched the second-generation of the Blade Battery, saying the new Blade Battery can be charged from 20% to 97% in less than 12 minutes in temperatures as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius, enabling a driving range of 777 kilometers (483 miles). CHPT Q4 revenue was a bit better than expected and at the high end of guide, but gross margins were below expectations from lower hardware margins and Q1 rev guide misses.
• In Entertainment Industry sector: STUB shares fell after reported Q4 GMS and EBITDA that respectively came in 6% and 1% below consensus, while the company reset 2026 expectations as 2026 GMS guidance of $9.9B 10.1B compared to consensus of $12.1B and 2026 EBITDA guidance of $400M-$420M vs. consensus of $691M. They said StubHub is slowing its roll-out of Direct Issuance and advertising as it further optimizes both products while it continues to lap all-in pricing headwinds through May 2026. TKO downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform at Wolfe Research saying prior to the TKO merger, WWE was a volatile trading stock driven by Media rights renewals. Through years of volatility, intrinsic value appreciated at double-digit annual rates. WWE was a sneaky compounder, and TKO's executives (and bullish Wolfe Research) capitalized. The UFC and bet365 announced a long-term partnership naming bet365 as the official sports betting partner across the U.S. and Canada.

• E&P energy sector: UBS raised price targets across the energy complex (APA, COP, DVN, EOG, OVV, PR, CHRD, CRC, MTDR) and continue to see a positive risk/reward for Energy. They said the higher PTs reflect the $10/bbl increase in their 2026 WTI/Brent deck to $68/72. While UBS sees E&Ps pricing in $65 WTI vs the $68/$63 12-month/2027 WTI strips, the longer the Middle East conflict goes on, the more upside it sees to the entire curve. The firm said top Pick OVV screens well on the Oil E&P side and AR stands out amongst Gas E&Ps.
• Benchmark Research also with a few E&P related ratings changes as they upgraded AR to Buy from Hold noting shares have significantly trailed the XOP as gas prices withdrew from multi-year highs on strong supply, while the firm downgrades FANG, PR, SOC, and TALO to Hold from Buy. At Citigroup, SDRL was upgraded to Neutral, raise PT to $46 after the company delivered robust Q4 EBITDA, exceeding consensus expectations by 7%.

• Insurance Sector: Goldman Sachs upgraded AIG to Buy from Neutral (PT to $90 from $83) and downgraded ALL to Neutral from Buy (PT to $231 from $238) while saying they favor AON, CB, RYAN in P&C Insurance sector as the firm introduces a framework to evaluate the Ai revenue and expense risk – and opportunities – for P&C insurers. On the revenue side, the Ai infrastructure buildout (new data Centers, Cyber Insurance) is an incremental revenue opportunity, but GSCO thinks potential profit pool disruption is greater than the opportunity. Best-to-worst positioned subsectors, in order: commercial insurers, Insurance Brokers, reinsurers, and personal lines.
• Mortgage Service stocks RKT, UWMC shares were active after CNBC reported Online mortgage firm BETR has partnered with OpenAI to launch a ChatGPT app that can cut mortgage underwriting from about 21 days to as little as 47 seconds, CNBC has learned. The tool combines Better’s mortgage engine with OpenAI’s models to automate dozens of underwriting checks for loan officers at banks, brokers and fintech firms. https://tinyurl.com/3bdp9bsk
• Payments: Bank America reinstates coverage of Visa (V), MA, XYZ, AFRM, and KLAR and a Neutral on PYPL saying their view on the sector is "broadly constructive," supported by steady payments volume growth, rising digital commerce penetration, and improving cross-border trends.
• Asset Managers: BEN preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1.74 trillion at February 28, 2026, compared to $1.71 trillion at January 31, 2026. This month's preliminary AUM reflected the impact of positive markets and long-term net inflows of approximately $10 billion, inclusive of approximately $1 billion of long-term net outflows at Western Asset Management

• BTAI announces positive phase 2 topline results from Columbia university-led study of bxcl501 for treatment of opioid withdrawal; said bxcl501 demonstrated clinical benefits and favorable tolerability profile for treatment of opioid withdrawal symptoms.
• LLY announced the launch of its Employer Connect platform this am, coordinating with over 15 independent program administrators to improve employee access to obesity management medicines. Through this employer platform, LLY’s Zepbound KwikPen will be available at a discounted price of $449 for all doses.
• MDWD misses Q4 revenue on U.S. government shutdown, reaffirms FY revenue guidance; adjusted EBITDA loss for Q4 beat analyst expectations; Q4 revenue decline was due to U.S. government shutdown affecting budget.
• PEPG announced an update on their DM1 MAD study (FREEDOM2) in the US, which has been put on partial clinical hold here as it progresses and even dose-escalates in the UK, Canada and elsewhere
• XNCR announced that AZN does not plan to pay royalties to XNCR on US sales of Ultomiris through 2028, which were expected to make up a substantial portion of revenue in the near term.
• ZEAL announces positive Phase 2 results for Petrelintide, an amylin analog with potential to redefine the weight management experience for people Living with overweight and obesity. Petrelintide achieved up to 10.7% mean Body weight reduction at week 42 (versus 1.7% with placebo) and demonstrated placebo-like tolerability.

• Healthcare Tech: VEEV posted a Q4 top- and bottom-line beat, driven by outperformance in both Commercial and R&D Solutions; Q4 total revenue (+16% YoY), subscription revenue (+16% YoY), normalized billings (+18% YoY), Non-GAAP operating margin (43.8%), and Non-GAAP EPS ($2.06) all coming in above consensus, on better guide.

• In Airlines: the sector was hit (AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV, ALK) as oil prices jumped more than 5% this morning extending a rally as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran escalated. Separately, Redburn downgraded AAL to Neutral from Buy saying domestic airline capacity growth is accelerating through this year, and the Iran conflict will add "disruptive pressures and material fuel cost inflation (lowered tgts on other airlines too).
• In Rails/Truckers: Reuters reported rails CSX, UNP and BNSF are moving to recapture freight from truckers as tightening trucking capacity and rising road-haul rates bolster rail's competitive position. For years, low trucking rates and greater flexibility helped road carriers capture cargo that might otherwise have moved by rail, weighing on rail volumes and limiting pricing power. That dynamic is now shifting, at least temporarily. Freight broker CHRW said trucking capacity is shrinking as small carriers exit the market and federal scrutiny of driver licensing, safety and insurance requirements intensifies. The added pressure is reducing driver supply/raising costs.
• In Industrials: FAST reported February 2026 net sales of $710.6M, up 13.3% from $627.1M in February 2025, with 20 business days in both periods. Daily sales were $35.5M versus $31.4M a year earlier, a 13.3% increase, and the impact of currency fluctuations was 0.6%. By geography, daily sales growth was 12.7% in the United States (82.8% of sales), 14.4% in Canada/Mexico (13.8% of sales), and 25.5% in Rest of World (3.4% of sales). Weapons maker Anduril expects to roughly double revenue this year to about $4.3B, while its operating loss would rise by nearly half to $1.2B, according to confidential financial figures shared with prospective investors. The privately held company is raising $4B - The Information reported. https://tinyurl.com/282e82a2

• Other chemical movers: WLK was upgraded to Outperform and both DOW, LYB upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital citing the significant recent changes in the global polyethylene market due to the Iran conflict for the upgrade. With the temporary shuttering of 12%-13% of the world's polyethylene supply, the market has shifted to tight supply, which may remain tight for the foreseeable future. Additionally, a spike in crude should reinvigorate the ethane advantage.
• Rare Earth sector: USAR agreed to acquire Texas Mineral Resources Corporation for 3.82 million of its shares, implying a deal value of $73M as the deal makes USA Rare Earth the sole operator of Round Top, North America's richest known deposit of heavy rare earths and critical minerals, the company said. UAMY
• Metals & Mining: Precious metal miners fell with the gold/silver retreat on Dollar/Treasury yield strength, as shares of AEM, AG, CDE, HL, NEM, WPM, PAAS were weaker.

• Tech Advertising: TTD shares jumped after The Information said they have held early talks with OpenAI regarding a partnership to help the AI tool sell ads, citing people familiar with the matter. The talks suggest that OpenAI will initially look to external partners to help it sell ads and ramp up its business,. https://tinyurl.com/3er3j5db
• Software stocks (IGV) were leaders early this morning, extending recent bounce after falling more than -20% to start the year with big bounces in likes of MSFT, ORCL, CRM, SNOW, MDB, etc. though many pared gains off highs. ORCL shares slumped this afternoon after Bloomberg reported the company is planning thousands of job cuts as data center costs rise.
• Optical: CIEN reported a beat for Q4 top/bottom line as earnings rose 111% y/y and revs jumped 33% y/y to $1.43B, boosted by data center orders, while guiding Q1 results above views as Q2 revenue of $1.5B at the midpoint of guidance, above estimates of $1.44B and year revs also above consensus.
• In Data Centers: IREN shares slumped after announced an up to $6B "at-the-market" equity share sell program, while also announced it has entered into purchase agreements for over 50,000 NVDA B300 GPUs that will expand its total fleet to 150,000 GPUs. Iren expects to deploy the additional GPUs in phases through H2 2026 across its existing air-cooled data Centers in Mackenzie, British Columbia and Childress, Texas.
• Security Software: OKTA reported strong Q4/26 results with 12% cRPO growth vs. 9% guidance along with new product traction (~30% of 4Q bookings/~40% ACV uplift), while Q1 guidance was slightly below the Street ($749-753Mm vs est $754.61Mm) and FY27 was in line despite a 1pt headwind from shifting services revs to GSIs and FY27 margins guided slightly below on increased investments.
• Quantum Compute: RGTI Q4 revenue came in slightly below estimate, but it raises its FY26 revenue estimate as system sales increase; Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.03), in-line with consensus and revs $1.9M vs. est. $2.34M; Q4 Operating loss for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was $22.6M.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, March 5, 2026

• BGS Barclays analyst Andrew Lazar raised the firm's price target on B&G Foods to $5 from $4 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm thinks the company can get closer to achieving its mid-year leverage target with the divesture of its Green Giant frozen business.
• CUBE Barclays analyst Brendan Lynch raised the firm's price target on CubeSmart to $45 from $43 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm updated self-storage real estate investment trust models post the Q4 reports.
• DTM Barclays analyst Theresa Chen raised the firm's price target on DT Midstream to $141 from $119 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm updated models in the midstream and refining space to reflect updated earnings results and commodity prices.
• EYE Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih raised the firm's price target on National Vision to $38 from $32 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q4 beat. The company's "structural improvements" are driving sales and earnings power, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• V BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of Visa with a Buy rating and $410 price target.
• MA BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of MasterCard with a Buy rating and $700 price target.
• PYPL BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of PayPal with a Neutral rating and $48 price target.

• CORZ Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi raised the firm's price target on Core Scientific to $20 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said with merger headlines fully in the rearview mirror, at least for now, CORZ is moving forward with its organic growth plan. Canaccord said they are to see progress across several fronts, including a material new site acquisition in Texas, power capacity being added at existing facilities, and commentary that the full power portfolio will ultimately transition from BTC mining to AI hosting.
• LUNG Canaccord analyst William Plovanic lowered the firm's price target on Pulmonx to $5 from $6 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Q4 results came in largely inline as Management detailed the internal issues that weighed on performance last year and the actions taken to address them. as the company plans to focus on the fundamentals that brought success in the past.
• QSI Canaccord analyst Kyle Mikson lowered the firm's price target on Quantum-Si to $1 from $1.50 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said 4Q25 results below our estimates and FactSet consensus. They estimate low-single-digit Platinum instrument sales in the quarter, with gross margin of approximately 27%. Importantly, QSI has largely shifted its focus to the launch of the Proteus platform, framing 2026 as a "transition year."

• WIX Citi analyst Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis lowered the firm's price target on Wix.com to $105 from $150 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes the company is well positioned to beat its 2026 guidance with Base44 ramping and Harmony's rollout.
• ARVN Citi analyst Yigal Nochomovitz raised the firm's price target on Arvinas to $18 from $15 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q4 report.
• GENI Citi analyst Jason Bazinet lowered the firm's price target on Genius Sports to $11 from $13 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
• RRC Citi analyst Paul Diamond raised the firm's price target on Range Resources to $43 from $36 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

• BCS Erste Group analyst Hans Engel downgraded Barclays to Hold from Buy.
• MS Erste Group analyst Hans Engel downgraded Morgan Stanley to Hold from Buy.

• APLS JPMorgan analyst Anupam Rama raised the firm's price target on Apellis to $37 from $36 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm's survey of 23 nephrologists shows Empaveli is well positioned for "meaningful" share gain.
• DTM JPMorgan analyst Jeremy Tonet raised the firm's price target on DT Midstream to $142 from $126 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q4 report.
• BF JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira lowered the firm's price target on Brown-Forman to $25 from $29 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the fiscal Q3 report.

• OKTA KeyBanc analyst Eric Heath lowered the firm's price target on Okta to $100 from $115 on lower peer multiples, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Okta reported a solid Q4 cRPO beat and Q1 guide above expectations. Okta is an early leader in securing AI agents and KeyBanc looks to Showcase for additional announcements to enhance its position.

• BRBR Mizuho analyst John Baumgartner lowered the firm's price target on BellRing Brands to $34 from $40 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm reduced estimates after Nielsen data showed softer post-storm volumes.
• STAA Mizuho analyst Anthony Petrone lowered the firm's price target on Staar Surgical to $22 from $28 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says the company still has an uncertain path forward with a lack of clarity on China.
• SGRY Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes lowered the firm's price target on Surgery Partners to $17 from $19 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company reported lower than expected Q4 results, driven by anesthesia-related cost pressures and a deteriorating payer mix due to a higher Medicare mix, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CC Mizuho analyst John Roberts raised the firm's price target on Chemours to $21 from $17 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

• VEEV Morgan Stanley analyst Craig Hettenbach raised the firm's price target on Veeva to $215 from $205 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Against the backdrop of "pervasive negative sentiment" in software and healthcare IT, FY26 ending on a high note and FY27 guidance that was "a touch ahead of the Street" should "drive a relief rally," but follow through will depend on subscription growth in the coming quarters, the analyst tells investors.

• CBRL UBS analyst Dennis Geiger raised the firm's price target on Cracker Barrel to $31 from $26 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Cracker Barrel reported better-than-expected same-store sales supported by modestly improved traffic in January versus November and December, with trends continuing to improve in February, though results remain pressured by the rebranding controversy and broader macro headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note. FY26 guidance was updated to $3.24B-$3.27B in revenue and $85M-$100M in adjusted EBITDA, with management focused on driving a traffic recovery through menu innovation, value offerings, operations improvements, and loyalty initiatives, while limited visibility into the pace of recovery keeps sentiment cautious, UBS says.
• APA UBS analyst Josh Silverstein raised the firm's price target on APA Corp. to $36 from $34 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Energy is viewed as offering attractive risk/reward, with the higher price target reflecting a $10/bbl increase in 2026 oil price assumptions to $68 WTI and $72 Brent and a modest valuation multiple expansion due to geopolitical risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Markets appear to underprice prolonged Middle East conflict and potential Qatar gas supply disruptions, which could lift oil and natural gas prices and drive the strongest free cash flow upside for companies producing both oil and gas, the firm says.
• OVV UBS analyst Josh Silverstein raised the firm's price target on Ovintiv to $69 from $61 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Energy is viewed as offering attractive risk/reward, with the higher price target reflecting a $10/bbl increase in 2026 oil price assumptions to $68 WTI and $72 Brent and a modest valuation multiple expansion due to geopolitical risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Markets appear to underprice prolonged Middle East conflict and potential Qatar gas supply disruptions, which could lift oil and natural gas prices and drive the strongest free cash flow upside for companies producing both oil and gas, the firm says.
• MGY UBS analyst Peyton Dorne raised the firm's price target on Magnolia Oil & Gas to $35 from $29 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Energy is viewed as offering attractive risk/reward, with the higher price target reflecting a $10/bbl increase in 2026 oil price assumptions to $68 WTI and $72 Brent and a modest valuation multiple expansion due to geopolitical risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Markets appear to underprice prolonged Middle East conflict and potential Qatar gas supply disruptions, which could lift oil and natural gas prices and drive the strongest free cash flow upside for companies producing both oil and gas, the firm says.
• MUR UBS analyst Josh Silverstein raised the firm's price target on Murphy Oil to $34 from $30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Energy is viewed as offering attractive risk/reward, with the higher price target reflecting a $10/bbl increase in 2026 oil price assumptions to $68 WTI and $72 Brent and a modest valuation multiple expansion due to geopolitical risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Markets appear to underprice prolonged Middle East conflict and potential Qatar gas supply disruptions, which could lift oil and natural gas prices and drive the strongest free cash flow upside for companies producing both oil and gas, the firm says.
• OXY UBS analyst Josh Silverstein raised the firm's price target on Occidental to $55 from $49 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Energy is viewed as offering attractive risk/reward, with the higher price target reflecting a $10/bbl increase in 2026 oil price assumptions to $68 WTI and $72 Brent and a modest valuation multiple expansion due to geopolitical risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Markets appear to underprice prolonged Middle East conflict and potential Qatar gas supply disruptions, which could lift oil and natural gas prices and drive the strongest free cash flow upside for companies producing both oil and gas, the firm says.
• CTRA UBS analyst Josh Silverstein raised the firm's price target on Coterra Energy to $38 from $33 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Energy is viewed as offering attractive risk/reward, with the higher price target reflecting a $10/bbl increase in 2026 oil price assumptions to $68 WTI and $72 Brent and a modest valuation multiple expansion due to geopolitical risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Markets appear to underprice prolonged Middle East conflict and potential Qatar gas supply disruptions, which could lift oil and natural gas prices and drive the strongest free cash flow upside for companies producing both oil and gas, the firm says.
• VEEV UBS analyst Karl Keirstead raised the firm's price target on Veeva to $220 from $200 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Veeva posted solid growth for Q4, but guidance for fiscal 2027 was mixed, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• IOVA UBS analyst David Dai raised the firm's price target on Iovance Biotherapeutics to $4 from $2 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Fundamentals improved in Q4, but Amtagvi acceleration remains uncertain, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CBRL Wells Fargo analyst Anthony Trainor raised the firm's price target on Cracker Barrel to $35 from $30 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2 comparable-store sales/EBITDA cleared a low bar, quarter-to-date is off to a slightly better start, and initiatives are gaining traction. Some relief appears warranted on early signs of progress, but obstacles remain and near-term risk/reward appears balanced, Wells adds.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for February

• Earnings After the Close: ACHR AIV ASAN ASTS BBAI CORZ CRDO DAVE GAIA GRRR HLIO HROW IHRT INGM JRVR LIF LMB MDB OUST PLUG QUBT RGR RIOT SGRY STNE SUPV TDUP TREE TUYA VTS

• Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACEL ARCT BGS BOX BRCB CRCT CRWD CYRX EOLS FTEK GTLB HRZN MEC NPCE ORN RIGL ROST RYAM SGC SSTI STAA SWIM WBTN

• Keybanc Emerging Technology Summit in San Francisco, 3/3
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI, for February
• China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for February

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll data for February
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb-final
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Feb-final
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEO ALTO AQST ARDT ATNI AVGO BULL CBRL CCRN CDLX CHPT EHAB GO HDSN ICCC IPI LUNG MG MX NNBR OKTA OOMA REI REPX RGTI SES SGHT STEM STUB TPVG VEEV

• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• RBC Capital Geothermal Investor Conference, 3/4 in New York
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Nonfarm productivity for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q4, preliminary
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEYE AKA ASLE COO COOK COST ERO EVC GAP GDYN GEVO GPRO GWRE III IOT MEOH MRVL NX OPRX PBR PRTS SOBO

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for February
• 8:30 AM Et                    Average Hourly Earnings M/M and Y/Y for February
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for January

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