Early Look

Monday, February 9, 2026

After a volatile end to last week with major averages surging on Friday, US stock index futures are edging lower as investors looked ahead to a key week for economic data, including the January Employment Situation report and retail inflation figures. For last week, the S&P 500 fell -0.1%, the Nasdaq declined -1.84%, and the Dow climbed 2.5% while closing above the 50,000 mark for the first time ever. Even software found some footing on Friday with the IGV rising 3.5%...but still finished the week down -8.7% and is down about -22% in 2026 so far. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher across the curve. Key data this week includes the January jobs report Wednesday, after being delayed due to the partial government shutdown (and follows weak private payroll/JOLTs job data last week) and the consumer price index (CPI) data scheduled for Friday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 soars over 4% to hit record highs after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a Landmark election victory. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house. The Nikkei Index jumped 2,110 points or 3.89% to settle at 56,363, the Shanghai Index gained 57 points to 4,123, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 467 points or 1.76 to close at 27,027. In Europe, the German DAX is up 57 points to 24,779, while the FTSE 100 slips -10 points to 10,358. West Texas Intermediate fluctuated as tensions in the Middle East eased, reducing the chance of interruptions to supply in the near term. Tech was volatile last week, falling the early part of the week as concerns remain about whether the massive amounts being spent on AI will ever make a return. The four largest U.S. tech giants alone plan to spend $650 billion on capex this year. But tech recovered strongly on Friday with a massive 2.18% spike into another busy week of earnings.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,206.95 points, or 2.47%, to 50,115.67
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 490.63 points, or 2.18%, to 23,031.21
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 92.69 points, or 3.60% to 2,670.34

• Earnings After the Close: ACGL ACM AMKR BRX CHGG CINF CMCO CRBG DAC GTM ICHR KRC MEDP MTW NTB ON OPEN PAL PFG PFLT PNNT SSD SVM UDR UPWK UTL UVV VNO

• Cantor 2026 Annual Healthcare Ski Summit, 2/9-2/12, in Park City, UT
• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• UBS Financial Services Conference, 2/9-2/11, in Florida

• Chinese regulators were said to call on banks to scale back holdings of US debt due to concerns about concentration risks and market volatility – Bloomberg.

• Li Auto’s ADRs (LI) was downgraded to underweight from neutral at JP Morgan, on a view that new EV models from five other carmakers are likely to pressure the Chinese auto firm’s sales this year.
• Philip Morris (PM) filed for debt shelf.
• Vinfast Auto ltd (VFS) announced its global delivery target of 300,000 electric vehicles for the full year 2026; for two-wheelers, the company targets 2026 deliveries to be at least 2.5 times its 2025 deliveries

• Halliburton Co (HAL) filed for mixed shelf.
• NatWest (NWG) is set to buy wealth manager Evelyn Partners for 2.7 billion pounds ($3.67 billion) including debt to boost its savings and investment offerings. The bank reached an agreement with private equity firms Permira and Warburg Pincus to take over Evelyn Partners, it said Monday

• Block Inc. (XYZ) could slash up to 10% of its workforce as part of an overhaul. The company has told hundreds of employees they may be let go during their annual performance review, Bloomberg reported.
• Robinhood (HOOD) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $125 price target at Wolfe Research after 27% pullback as sees the risk/reward as more attractive following the pullback.
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) was upgraded to market outperform from market perform at Citizens as believes the recent risk-off rotation has penalized higher-growth narratives.

• Innovent Biologics (IVBIY) said it signed a deal with Eli Lilly (LLY) to jointly develop experimental medicines targeting cancer and immune-related diseases, extending a partnership that has spanned more than a decade.
• Medtronic (MDT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham saying the company is in the early stages of several major product launches in multi-billion dollar markets which will drive faster revenue growth.
• Roche (RHHBY)-owned Genentech said that its multiple sclerosis asset fenebrutinib met its primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial. Fenebrutinib reduced the risk of disability progression by 12% compared to Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) as soon as 24 weeks in individuals with primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

• Microchip Technology (MCHP) announces proposed private offering of $600 million of convertible senior notes.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) rises after South Korea's Yonhap reported that it will start large-scale production of the next generation of high-bandwidth memory chips as soon as this month, pressuring shares of Micron Technology (MU). Samsung will begin mass production of the new high-bandwidth memory chips, known as HBM4, later this month for use in artificial-intelligence processors made by Nvidia (NVDA) according to the report.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, February 06, 2026

U.S. stocks in recovery mode early, rebounding off overnight declines following Amazon (AMZN) mixed results and raised capex, seeing recoveries early in three of the most beat up sectors to start the year with Software, Alts/PE, and crypto all seeing a notable bounce after tumbling further on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leading +1.6% at new all-time highs and the Dow Transport index up about 1% trying to make a new record as well (50 points away from Wednesday highs) and the Small Cap Rusell 2000 up over 2%. After weaker jobs data on Thursday (jobless claims/JOLTs/Challenger Gray) Treasury yield shave slipped the last 2 days with rate sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yields hitting a more than three month low. The 2-year note yield , which typically moves in step with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, was last up 1.7bps to 3.49% but earlier reached 3.426%, the lowest since October 17. In tech, Amazon was disappointing as investors balk at the $200B capex budget for 2026, but aside from them, it was generally a decent evening of results, with healthy/better-than-feared numbers/guidance from several companies AFRM, BE, BILL, FTNT, MPWR, RBLX, RDDT, and TEAM. Meanwhile, the huge capex numbers ($200B from Amazon and $180B from Google) are helping sentiment around chip/equipment vendors levered to data center construction. More strength in Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), along with Financials (XLF) and aforementioned Tech (XLK) strong to start. The question remains, will this rally hold into the close and bounce again Monday?

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim Feb 3.5% vs final Jan 4.0% while University of Michigan surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim Feb 3.4% vs final Jan 3.3%.

• Bitcoin remains volatile, bouncing off lowest levels since October 2024 after suffering its sharpest one day decline since 2022 on Thursday. Bitcoin hit a low of $60,008.52 overnight after tumbling about 13% this week, putting it down roughly 25% YTD. It remains at a 16-mth low and almost 50% below record high of around $126,223 hit in October. News of President Trump's selection of Kevin Warsh as his pick to become the next Fed Chair has fueled the recent rout in cryptocurrencies, while latest selling in precious metals and broad selloff in tech has soured risk sentiment.
• Crypto fallout: big losses this week for likes of crypto exchange COIN, Bitcoin investor MSTR (which posted larger loss last night), shares of retail trading platform HOOD which offers trading in crypto tokens, and several crypto miners hammered this week RIOT, CLSK, MARA, WULF, IREN, CIFR and others though many have shifted to Ai compute. Group seeing rebound early as dip buyers emerge.
• In Managed Care/Medicaid: MOH shares tanked after mixed Q4 results while guided Fy26 EPS of at least $5 per share for 2026, well below analysts' estimate of $13.76 and said expects annual medical cost ratio, percentage of premiums spent on medical services, to be 92.6% vs estimate of 89.78%. This morning, CNC guides FY26 revenue marginally below estimates ($185-$190B vs $194.1B est.) with EPS consistent (greater than $3 vs. $2.95 consensus). The damage in managed care has been extensive this earnings quarter with UNH, HUM also recently issuing disappointments.
• Security Software: FTNT Q4 results were ahead of expectations for both billings and revenue, with meaningful product strength offsetting another soft services result/SASE strength underpinned a better than expected billings result/ 4Q op. margin of 37.3% beat street expectations by ~230 bps; QLYS Q4 top-line momentum with $175M revenue growing 10% y/y, beating the midpoint of guidance by $2M, while FY26 guidance came in above, with revenue guidance implying nearly 8% growth at the midpoint – though Piper noted print was weighed down by NRR slipping to 103% and commentary on F'26 billings growth that came in lower than some hopes.

• EHC +11%; shares jumped after Q4 results were well ahead of expectations, highlighted by a sizable 7% EBITDA beat and 3.2% SS discharge growth. The EBITDA upside was driven by solid SS revenue growth (7.3% vs Keybanc 6.5%), favorable Medicare FFS mix, and very strong expense management.
• MSTR +15%; results last night weak but shares bounce with broader rebound in Bitcoin; posted a sharply wider Q4 loss, underscoring the risks of its heavy exposure to bitcoin, logging a net loss of $12.4B, or $42.93 per share, compared with a loss of $670.8 mln a year earlier.
• NVST +14%; was upgraded to Outperform at Leerink and raised tgt to $35 from $25 post earnings citing improved growth and execution from Envista and some early signs of better market growth following ALGN earnings.
• RBLX +9%; shares surged after delivered a very strong Q425, with Bookings 6.5% above Street forecasts and initial 2026E guidance was also impressive, with Bookings/Adj EBITDA 5%/13% above consensus at the midpoint. Notably, 45% of RBLX's 144M DAUs are age-verified, indicating that users skew younger than their reported ages.
• RDDT +8%; reported better-than-expected results, with revenue coming in $60M+ above the high-end of guidance as advertising revenue growth accelerated to +75% y/y; U.S. user growth accelerated two points, to +9% y/y and Q425 EBITDA came in $42M above the high-end of the range as EBITDA margins reached 45%.
• ROIV +14%; and its spinout Priovant said this morning that their immune-modifying drug significantly outperformed placebo in clearing lesions caused by a rare skin disease in a small trial.

• COTY -10%; shares fell after withdraws full-year forecast, sees Q3 adj EBITDA to fall to $100-$110M, below ests of $201.6M and sees Q3 revs declining by a mid-single-digit percentage vs. est. +2.9%.
• DOCS -27%; shares tumble after reported a beat, but FQ4 revenue growth guidance of ~4% came in well below consensus as they noted upfront selling season has started slow due to: 1) multiple customers deploying a lower % of annual budgets upfront and 2) this uncertainty resulted in many deals being delayed and pushed out.
• HIMS -9%; after U.S. FDA commissioner Marty Makary recently said the FDA will be taking action against companies producing illegal copycat drugs claiming to be similar to FDA-approved products, per Reuters reports.
• HUBG -25%; shares slide after saying it will restate its financial statements for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2025 citing inaccuracies that resulted in the understatement of purchased transportation costs and accounts payable.
• MOH -25%; shares tanked after mixed Q4 results while guided Fy26 EPS of at least $5 per share for 2026, well below analysts' estimate of $13.76 and said expects annual medical cost ratio, percentage of premiums spent on medical services, to be 92.6% vs estimate of 89.78%.
• PI -23%; after an outlook that is much weaker than expected, owing mainly to its large North American Logistics supply chain customer making significant changes with supplier allocations; Q1 revenues are expected to be down 5.6% Y/o/y at the midpoint of the range, vs consensus +18%, along with lower-than-expected adj. EBITDA.
• STLA -25%; shares tumbled after announced 22.2 billion euros ($26.5 billion) of charges as it scales back its electric-vehicle ambitions; expects industrial cash burn of between 1.4-1.6 billion euros in the 2H’26; will also issue up to 5 billion euros in non-convertible subordinated perpetual hybrid bonds.

Closing Recap

Monday, February 09, 2026

After trouble finding direction initially for U.S. markets overnight/this morning, major averages ended higher with a strong bounce, especially in beaten up tech (XLK) stocks, and particularly software (IGV) while Mag 7 names were mixed on the day. It was a quiet day for news flow, with no Fed speakers, no economic data, and light earnings ahead of a big week ahead for all. Key data coming this week includes the January jobs report Wednesday, after being delayed due to the partial government shutdown (and follows weak private payroll/JOLTs job data last week) and the consumer price index (CPI) data scheduled for Friday. Renewed buying interest in precious metals today with gold and silver on the rise as the dollar was broadly weaker. Most of the action today was in Asia and Europe where Japan’s Nikkei rose as much as 5.7% to surpass 57,000 briefly before ending higher by 4% at 56,363 to hit record highs after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a Landmark election victory. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, the highest since WWII. A key campaign promise, a two-year zero-consumption tax on food, will soon be debated through a bipartisan group to coordinate implementation. The yen pushed higher as the dollar slipped and the euro bounced around 1%.

• Precious metals saw a nice rebound today as April gold advanced $99.60 or about 2% to settle at $5,079.40 an ounce, while silver March futures gained $5.34 or 6.5% to settle at $82.23 an ounce, both getting a boost from a declining dollar as the dollar index (DXY) fell -0.75% back below the 97 level.
• The yen gained vs. the greenback in the wake of Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi’s election victory. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index fell -0.8%. While the pound has picked up, it remains near the bottom of the G-10 pile amid a UK political risk premium. The euro jump around 1% back above the $1.19 level vs the dollar.

• In Casinos & Gaming: SRAD announced a multi-year agreement with NBC Sports Regional Sports Networks to enhance NBA broadcasts with advanced data and visual storytelling Tools. Under the agreement, NBC Sports Regional Networks will utilize Sportradar's NBA Advanced Data and GameFrame platform during Live NBA game telecasts.
• In Autos: STLA was upgraded to Peer Perform at Wolfe Research after the stock was down 25% on Friday after the company pre-announced a series of negative updates: 2H25 results miss; weak 2026 outlook; considerable €22.2B in realignment and EV charges, including €6.5B in cash payments; a suspension of its 2026 dividend. LI was downgraded to underweight from neutral at JP Morgan, on a view that new EV models from five other carmakers are likely to pressure the Chinese auto firm’s sales this year. VFS announced its global delivery target of 300,000 electric vehicles for the full year 2026; for two-wheelers, the company targets 2026 deliveries to be at least 2.5 times its 2025 deliveries.

• In Transports: A consortium led by private-equity firm Advent International and FDX has agreed to buy parcel-locker provider InPost for more than $9 billion, in a deal that bolsters the American delivery company's business in Europe. The consortium said it would pay 7.8 billion euros, equivalent to about $9.22 billion, for InPost, as the EUR15.6 a share, below the company's 2021 IPO price of EUR16. Under the deal, Advent and FedEx will each hold a 37% stake.
• Aerospace & Defense: ONDS announced that its Smart demining subsidiary, 4M Defense, has secured a contract for a multi-year demining program in Israel valued at over $30M. VOYG said it was awarded $245M NASA Jsc Mission contract. VSAT was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank and raised tgt to $48, noting two major satellites set to be operational later this year and a spin-off of the Defense & Advanced Technologies business seemingly getting closer. In addition, management's comments show increasing willingness to maximize shareholder value which suggests to them there is at least optionality for further spectrum monetization/optimization down the road.

• Insurance sector: U.S. P&C insurers have delivered another strong earnings season so far, helped by light catastrophe losses and continued underwriting discipline, though analysts say pockets of pressure remain in casualty-exposed lines and commercial auto. The majority of U.S.-listed carriers releasing Q4 2025 results so far have reported operating earnings per share better than analysts' expectations. This includes TRV, RLI, HIG, AXS, CB, RNR, AIG and ALL while WRB results were in line with expectations.  Also weighing on insurance names perhaps, OpenAI has approved the first Ai app from an Insurance provider on ChatGPT, built by Tuio, one of Spain’s leading digital insurers, and powered by WaniWani’s Ai distribution infrastructure, enabling users to receive a personalized home Insurance quote, and soon, purchase a policy, entirely within the conversation per Reinsurance News https://tinyurl.com/mryxw7eh

• In Crypto: MSTR announced an update on its bitcoin holdings. The company reported acquiring 1,142 bitcoin for approximately $90M at an average purchase price of $78,815 between February 2 and February 8. As of February 8, Strategy holds 714,644 bitcoin. HOOD upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $125 price target at Wolfe Research after 27% pullback as sees the risk/reward as more attractive following the pullback.

• LLY is acquiring Orna Therapeutics for up to $2.4B in cash, adding a platform in circular RNA and in vivo cell engineering. Orna’s lead program targets B-cell autoimmune diseases with in vivo CAR-T. LLY also struck a research collaboration with China's Innovent Biologics to co-develop drugs for cancer and autoimmune diseases.
• RHHBY-owned Genentech said that its multiple sclerosis asset fenebrutinib met its primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial. Fenebrutinib reduced the risk of disability progression by 12% compared to Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) as soon as 24 weeks in individuals with primary progressive multiple sclerosis

• In Medical Devices: BDX shares fell after lowering their 2026 adj. EPS view to between $12.35-$12.65, compared with prior forecast of $14.75-$15.05 (consensus $14.72) despite beating on Q1 EPS/rev results; also affirms FY26 revenue growth guidance for New BD as low single-digit plus.
• In MedTech: MDT was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham with a $121 price target saying the company is in the early stages of several major product launches in multi-billion dollar markets. The launches will drive faster revenue growth for Medtronic and sees potential for the new products to add over 1% to overall organic revenue growth.
• In Life Sciences: WAT shares fell after Q4 sales slightly beat analyst expectations, growing 7% y/y ($932M vs. est. $929M) and adj EPS $4.53 beat the $4.51, growing by double digits but shares slide on softer Q1 guidance though sees FY26 EPS $14.30-$14.50 (vs. est. $14.32) and full-year 2026 revenue between $6.405B-$6.45B.

• In Paper & Packaging: Cascades (CADNF) announces $60/ton surprise URB Price increase which Jefferies said introduces 3% upside potential to SON's EBITDA, but adoption is unlikely W/ Q4 URB vols down 4% & SON/GEF yet to Match. Q4 CMI vol data was mixed, doing little to change JEFF's LSD% Q4 vol decline assumption for SON's Consumer segment. CCK was downgraded to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $126 at UBS saying they see a more balanced risk/reward with the shares nearing the price target and Crown may see a multi-year period of lower volume drop as new capacity is needed to service demand.
• In Chemicals: WLK was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho with an unchanged price target of $88 citing the company's late December negative preannouncement and peer Olin's recent weak March quarter guidance for the downgrade. CTVA was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS saying their risk/reward is more balanced within coverage and says that with the company planning to separate its Seed and Crop Chemicals business later this year, a degree of risk on execution is added, setting up the potential for negative surprises.

• In Media: RBLX was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Roth and raise tgt to $84 from $78 saying they have a more positive view toward Roblox due to better than expected 2026 bookings guidance and a >20% bookings CAGR outlook over the next several years, combined with a more attractive valuation.

• Software: CRM and NOW added to the IVES AI 30 (Dan Ives) list after taking them off in early December with this software Armageddon sell-off the last few weeks assuming software/tech behemoths like Salesforce and ServiceNow are structurally broken…and we strongly disagree. MNDY posted quarterly earnings that topped Wall Street forecasts but 2026 guidance that disappointed; Q4 came in mixed with a smaller beat (~1.3%) and NDR at 110%, below the prior expects for ~111% but issues FY26/Q1 guide which missed and FY26 lower profitability/FCF guidance (23%/30% misses). ORCL was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Davidson with $180 tgt saying they believe that a revamped OpenAI will return to its position as Google's top challenger and with a fresh stack of capital be able to Live up to its obligations this year, including to Oracle. WDAY shares slid after saying co-founder Aneel Bhusri to return as CEO while current  CEO Carl Eschenbach to step down and take on role of strategic advisor and co also reaffirms Q4 FY outlook.
• IT Services & Consulting: KD shares tumbled after saying it was unable to file quarterly report within deadline, citing material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting; said financial statements for FY 2025 should no longer be relied upon; also announced it CFO stepped down. DT shares rose as announces new $1B share repurchase program; Q3 adj EPS $0.44 vs. est. $0.41; Q3 revs $515M vs. consensus $506.23M; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $1.67-$1.69 from $1.62-$1.64 and raises FY26 revenue view to $2.005B-$2.01B from $1.985B-$1.995B, vs. consensus $1.99B.

• MU shares slipped early after South Korea’s Yonhap reported that said Samsung Electronics would start large-scale production of the next generation of high-bandwidth memory chips as soon as this month. That would be a challenge for Micron, which makes HBM chips that are a crucial part of AI processors.
• STM said it had struck a multiyear, multibillion-dollar with AMZN’s cloud-computing arm, Amazon Web Services. AWS will also have the option to buy a stake of up to 2.7% in STMicroelectronics.

Street Recommendations

Monday, February 9, 2026

• MKTX Barclays lowered the firm's price target on MarketAxess to $178 from $182 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. While the company's January is off to a strong start with robust industry volumes, its share is trending lower, and growth in block trading has weighed on its credit, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• NVT Barclays analyst Julian Mitchell raised the firm's price target on nVent Electric to $141 from $140 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm thinks the post-earnings selloff brings a buying opportunity. nVent's capital markets day offers the chance to address investor margin concerns, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PANW Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Palo Alto Networks to $200 from $230 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the earnings report on February 17. The firm says the Cyberark and Chronosphere deals add "moving parts" but also additional growth opportunities.
• PAA Barclays raised the firm's price target on Plains All American to $18 from $17 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company expects to benefit from a more stable base business as a pure play crude infrastructure operator post the natural gas liquids divestiture, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• HUBS Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $448 from $602 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of quarterly results. Within the firm's coverage, HubSpot is the most impacted stock from the recent software selloff, down 40% over the past month. Heading into the results, Bernstein sees three main factors shaping the setup, namely Software vs. AI concerns, FY26 guidance, and stock valuation.
• BIIB Bernstein analyst William Pickering raised the firm's price target on Biogen to $201 from $191 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm notes Biogen delivered a solid set of numbers to cap FY25, beating consensus by 3% on revenue and 17% on EPS. More importantly, the FY26 guide is a bit better than consensus on the bottom line, with Biogen guiding EPS up 3% despite revenue guided down mid-single-digit.
• COST Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma raised the firm's price target on Costco to $1,155 from $1,146 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says Q4 finds U.S. Retail at an interesting juncture. On the one hand, consumer sentiment remains weak. Food inflation has rebounded despite egg price deflation. On the other hand, a rotation out of growth and technology stocks has buoyed the sector year-to-date. Further, there are puts and takes on the macro - drug pricing, SNAP, tariff reversals, tax refunds, and a potential World Cup bounce - that make it hard for investors to chart a course through FY26, Bernstein adds.
• FIVE Bernstein raised the firm's price target on Five Below to $206 from $195 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm says Q4 finds U.S. Retail at an interesting juncture. On the one hand, consumer sentiment remains weak. Food inflation has rebounded despite egg price deflation. On the other hand, a rotation out of growth and technology stocks has buoyed the sector year-to-date. Further, there are puts and takes on the macro - drug pricing, SNAP, tariff reversals, tax refunds, and a potential World Cup bounce - that make it hard for investors to chart a course through FY26, Bernstein adds.

• BKH BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Black Hills to $84 from $82 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm has come away from the company's earnings call incrementally positive on management's commentary surrounding the microgrid management fee and likelihood of realizing incremental data center earnings upside, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ERO BofA analyst Guilherme Rosito downgraded Ero Copper to Neutral from Buy with a price target of C$45, down from C$49, following the company's weaker-than-expected 2026 guidance. While volumes were revised lower and costs revised higher, the firm believes the stock "should have corrected more" given that the firm sees the current valuation as one that appears to discount either higher copper prices or a materially stronger execution profile than recent delivery supports, the analyst tells investors.
• PGR BofA analyst Joshua Shanker lowered the firm's price target on Progressive to $329 from $334 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm made no changes to its forecast, but the S&P 500 consensus P/E multiple has fallen and it applies this multiple to its "92%-normalized" combined ratio recast of 2028 EPS at $17.12, the analyst tells investors.
• WDC BofA raised the firm's price target on Western Digital to $375 from $345 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After having hosted in-person investor meetings in NYC with CFO Kris Sennesael, the firm says it walked away from the meetings more confident in the company's ability to meet its revised long-term targets given at the company's recent innovation day.
• TPR BofA raised the firm's price target on Tapestry to $160 from $150 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Tapestry not only reported "stellar sales growth," but now expects to fully offset tariffs over time and guided Q3 well above consensus, the analyst tells investors. This is "surprising versus a conservative stance historically and is likely a positive signal on QTD trends," adds the analyst, who raised the firm's target to reflect peer multiple expansion.
• ICE BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler raised the firm's price target on IntercontinentalExchange to $244 from $234 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm made EPS revisions post Q4 reporting for a number of companies in its brokers, asset managers and exchanges coverage.

• TYL BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Tyler Technologies to $470 from $560 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of its Q4 results. The firm is positive on the company's setup for the year for its AI defensibiility while noting that its stock is trading at a 30% discount to vertical SaaS peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• BIIB Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Biogen to $230 from $220 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported its 4Q25 results where revenue/adj. EPS came in at $2.28bn/$1.99 and easily beat consensus. Canaccord continues to view the company as undervalued and raise the target on better margins while viewing Leqembi as underappreciated.
• COTY Canaccord analyst Susan Anderson lowered the firm's price target on Coty to $2.50 from $3.50 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said they reported mixed Q2 results with sales coming in ahead of consensus and Adjusted EBITDA slightly below. The company said they see sequential improvement for sales in the coming quarters.

• ADNT Citi raised the firm's price target on Adient to $30 from $22.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the fiscal Q1 report. The firm cites its increased estimates post earnings for the target boost.
• HIMS Citi lowered the firm's price target on Hims & Hers to $16.50 from $30 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm believes the company's "risky and aggressive" oral semaglutide launch brings more legal risk. The new price target reflects a 25% bear case probability of Hims & Hers losing all weight loss drug sales, a 60% base case probability of the company losing half of the sales, and a 15% bull case probability of limited GLP-1 downside from the legal challenges, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TEAM Citi analyst Fatima Boolani lowered the firm's price target on Atlassian to $160 from $210 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the fiscal Q2 report. The firm ices "sector turmoil" for the target cut but believes Atlassian's fundamentals are "sound."
• ITT Citi analyst Vladimir Bystricky raised the firm's price target on ITT to $242 from $225 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the earnings report. The firm says the company's "elevated" backlog and favorable end market dynamics bring good visibility for sales momentum in 2026.

• PCOR Goldman Sachs analyst Kash Rangan lowered the firm's price target on Procore to $75 from $90 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. AI innovation continues to accelerate, as developments like Claude Cowork and OpenAI's Frontier highlight, warranting caution against over-anchoring to any single perspective, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Even so, the firm's analysis indicates most coverage lies in more insulated layers of the stack, creating attractive opportunities for investors willing to look through near-term volatility.
• CRNC Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Cerence to $8 from $11 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The stock's 29% decline is attributed to broader software weakness, below-consensus Q2 and FY26 guidance, and its higher-beta profile, despite management maintaining full-year outlook and tracking well, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Progress on agentic AI wins is encouraging, but the firm sees limited overall growth and profitability, with a more positive view contingent on signs of business acceleration.
• BILL Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Bill to $52 from $65 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Results exceeded expectations driven by stronger Spend and Expense trends, higher take rates, modestly better volumes, and a contribution from float, aligning with the company's strategy around customer acquisition, monetization, and AI investment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Bill remains a leader in A/P automation with mid-teens revenue growth and margin expansion, and recent software stock weakness is viewed as an opportunity given improving macro signals and a greater focus on profitability.
• TEVA Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Teva to $45 from $36 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Shares have surged over the past year as key overhangs lifted and execution across an expanding branded portfolio strengthened the long-term earnings outlook, though valuation is now a greater focus as the stock trades above historical multiples, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Even so, the current valuation appears justified and attractive given a fundamentally improved business profile and a de-risked path to above-consensus, double-digit EPS growth driven by revenue growth, margin expansion, and deleveraging, Goldman argues.

• WMT JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Walmart to $137 from $129 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the retailing space as part of a Q4 earnings preview. JPMorgan "broadly optimistic" on its coverage in 2026, expecting improving sales trends over the year due to wage growth, fading goods inflation, replacement cycles, and tax stimulus.
• LOW JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Lowe's to $325 from $300 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the retailing space as part of a Q4 earnings preview. JPMorgan "broadly optimistic" on its coverage in 2026, expecting improving sales trends over the year due to wage growth, fading goods inflation, replacement cycles, and tax stimulus.

• PKOH KeyBanc upgraded Park-Ohio to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $37 price target. The firm cites its expectations for an industrial cycle inflection for the upgrade. If Park-Ohio can execute on its internal initiatives amid the end market upcycle, it should lead to earnings growth, cash generation, and some debt pay down, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HOOD KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Robinhood to $130 from $160 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the selloff last week. The firm notes shares traded down on a combo of factor headwinds, crypto softness, and incremental estimate concern. Factor headwinds notwithstanding, KeyBanc thinks Robinhood shares have been unfairly beaten up for relatively moderate exposure to crypto and the absence of data showing retail peaking.
• IIIV KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on i3 Verticals to $30 from $32 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes i3 Verticals reported Q1 revenue that was a touch above the Street and adjusted EBITDA slightly below. KeyBanc remains constructive on growth and insulation from AI disruption.
• SPOT KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Spotify to $720 from $830 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes FX is a headwind for Spotify, which causes KeyBanc to lower 2026/2027 revenue and free cash flow. While it acknowledges AI is a headline concern everywhere, the firm says Spotify's current valuation "strikes us as overdone." KeyBanc believes pricing power is still intact, AI is benefiting product velocity and creating efficiencies, and that Street operating profit is too low.
• TRNO KeyBanc analyst Todd Thomas raised the firm's price target on Terreno Realty to $72 from $68 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following Q4 results. The firm notes quarterly performance was favorable and says the company's low-leverage balance sheet provides substantial financial flexibility, which is an important advantage in the current macro environment that affords Terreno ample capacity to remain opportunistic.

• WLK Mizuho downgraded Westlake to Neutral from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $88. The firm cites the company's late December negative preannouncement and peer Olin's recent weak March quarter guidance for the downgrade. Mizuho has a bearish industry view of Westlake's vinyls and polyethylene businesses. The stock has rallied 60% from the November 2025 low on recovery expectations despite the weakening outlook of its core businesses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• AFRM Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev lowered the firm's price target on Affirm to $95 from $114 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm views the post-earnings selloff in the shares as unjustified. Two positive catalysts for Affirm are being overlooked - its exclusive new partnership with Intuit and the fiscal 2026 being "simply conservative," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BE Mizuho analyst Maheep Mandloi raised the firm's price target on Bloom Energy to $110 from $89 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The firm is "impressed" with Bloom's gross margin accretion in 2026 due to cost reduction and higher capacity utilization driven by book-and-bill visibility.
• WMT Mizuho analyst David Bellinger raised the firm's price target on Walmart to $137 from $125 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm believes Walmart is a likely beneficiary of hyperscalers accelerating capital expenditures and deploying hundreds of billions on AI-related infrastructure. This should "play well into building out AI-powered shopping capabilities and readying the rails of agentic commerce," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CIFR Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd initiated coverage of Cipher Mining with an Overweight rating and $38 price target. Morgan Stanley is bullish on the "increasingly attractive valuations" of bitcoin-to-data center conversions. It sees significant upside in Cipher shares. Recent capital expenditure updates from the hyperscalers support the thesis that compute demand is likely to exceed supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MARA Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Mara Holdings with an Underweight rating and $8 price target. The firm says bitcoin mining economics are the dominant driver of the stock's value. It sees lower potential upside for Mara shares driven by bitcoin-to-data center conversions. The company owns a smaller volume of power access as many sites are leased from others, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• WMS Oppenheimer analyst Bryan Blair raised the firm's price target on Advanced Drainage to $200 from $180 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $209M, driven by Infiltrator and Allied Products outperformance, more than offsetting slightly weaker than anticipated Pipe revenue and unfavorable below-the-line items. Given Q3 results, current demand reads, core operating trends, and the inclusion of NDS operations, management raised FY26 guidance ranges.

• HP Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Helmerich & Payne to $40 from $35 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While Q1 results delivered a beat, the Q2 came in below consensus as International reactivation expenses are expected to weigh on results, causing momentum to reverse for Helmerich & Payne. The company expects a weaker rig count in the near term given customer churn. However, the company maintained its full year guidance range implying rigs step back up into the 140 range for the second half of 2026.
• NOV Piper Sandler analyst Derek Podhaizer raised the firm's price target on NOV Inc. to $18 from $17 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Despite an impressive 9% beat and elevated free cash flow, its B2B slipped to 0.7 turn and management guided Q1 below guidance in addition to 2026 results expected to be in line to slightly lower year-over-year, putting pressure on the stock. The expected coming Offshore inflection still feels like a way out as 2026 is likely to be another transition year.
• PTEN Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Patterson-UTI to $9 from $7 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company delivered results ahead of expectations already elevated into the print. For Q1 2026, management expects gross profit to be impacted by $5M-$10M due to the winter freeze.

• ADP Stifel analyst David Grossman lowered the firm's price target on ADP to $270 from $280 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The stock is trading at a 17% premium to the equal-weight S&P 500, which is its lowest valuation since the financial crisis and represents a "compelling risk/reward" for relatively stable and defensive high-single to low-double digit growth, the analyst tells investors.
• BRZE Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Braze to $40 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. A flurry of announcements from model providers and AI-natives have recently driven Braze sentiment sharply lower, but the firm believes Braze is "a prime example of a company with an overlooked moat" and sees it as a potential AI winner, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• SITE Stifel analyst W. Andrew Carter raised the firm's price target on SiteOne Landscape to $144 from $134 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Ahead of Q4 results, the firm is modestly reducing its FY26 EBITDA estimate for a softer volume outlook, tempered by a stronger margin profile and updated M&A contributions, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• STAA Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Staar Surgical to $19 from $28 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. China refractive end market uncertainty seemingly persists, which may make it difficult for Staar to get back to normalized worldwide growth of at least high-single digits, which the firm believes is "what will help shares start to work again."

• AGCO Truist analyst Jamie Cook raised the firm's price target on Agco to $152 from $134 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock topped Q4 consensus adjusted EPS estimate by about 17% on better sales and margins and guiding for FY26 adjusted EPS up 9% y/y at the midpoint, albeit below consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. AGCO continues to deliver on the cash back to shareholder story, buying back $250M of stock in Q4 under its $1B share authorization, the firm added.
• IMVT Truist analyst Danielle Brill raised the firm's price target on Immunovant to $23 from $22 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm has updated it model to incorporate financial updates announced in the company's 10-Q, which had marginal impacts to forward OpEx and share count projections, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RXO Truist analyst Lucas Servera raised the firm's price target on RXO Inc. to $20 from $18 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results and guidance. The firm views RXO as increasingly attractive, with trough margins, strong pipeline visibility, and accelerating operating leverage setting up a sharper earnings recovery once volumes normalize, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CTVA UBS analyst Joshua Spector downgraded Corteva to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $80, down from $81. With the stock recovering near the price target, Corteva's risk/reward is more balanced, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS says that with the company planning to separate its Seed and Crop Chemicals business later this year, a degree of risk on execution is added, setting up the potential for negative surprises.
• VTRS UBS analyst Ashwani Verma upgraded Viatris to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $18, up from $11. The firm cites the company's improving growth for the upgrade. Viatris' new product cycle pipeline and cost savings could unlock share value, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the company's growing pipeline, margin expansion and capital allocation.
• EXPO UBS analyst Joshua Chan raised the firm's price target on Exponent to $85 from $81 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The Q4 results and 2026 guidance were largely consistent with consensus, but given that guidance typically leans conservative, there could be perceived upside potential through the year against a stock that has de-rated over much of the past year, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• QGEN UBS raised the firm's price target on Qiagen to $52 from $50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Qiagen's portfolio holds several attractive growth drivers including Quantiferon and Qiastat, but the base business will likely deliver lower growth vs. peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• UAA UBS raised the firm's price target on Under Armour to $11 from $8 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The Under Armour brand remains an important asset, and the company is expected to leverage it more effectively than in recent years, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Strategic actions should drive second-derivative improvement in North America revenue growth, boosting stock sentiment, with the Q3 report reinforcing this conviction, UBS says.

• RBLX Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Roblox to $97 from $107 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm cites Q4 and Q1/FY26 guidance that were well ahead of expectations. Investor concern regarding difficult content comparisons starting late April will likely persevere, but management provided a confident forecast for the full year, Wells adds. The firm expects stock recovery post weakness year-to-date.
• GENI Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Genius Sports to $10 from $16 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm cites uncertainty around the acquisition. Wells admit this surprised the firm, and says it believes valuation is likely under pressure without further detail supporting the price paid and Legend's durability.
• AN Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan raised the firm's price target on AutoNation to $230 from $220 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after a Q4 beat and new GPU outperformance vs P6. CEO sees new GPUs stable at second half of 2025 levels, implying about $200 lower for FY2026.

• HOOD Wolfe Research upgraded Robinhood to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $125 price target. Shares are down 27% year-to-date, notes the analyst, who sees the risk/reward as more attractive following the pullback. The firm believes most sources of EPS improvement are durable as higher prediction markets volumes should offset pressure in other areas like crypto, the analyst added.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: ACGL ACM AMKR BRX CHGG CINF CMCO CRBG DAC GTM ICHR KRC MEDP MTW NTB ON OPEN PAL PFG PFLT PNNT SSD SVM UDR UPWK UTL UVV VNO

• Cantor 2026 Annual Healthcare Ski Summit, 2/9-2/12, in Park City, UT
• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• UBS Financial Services Conference, 2/9-2/11, in Florida

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for December
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business Inventories M/M for November
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ADC AEIS AIG AIZ AKR ALAB ANGI ARI BL DEI DIOD EPM EW EXEL F FRSH GILD GNSS GXO HIW HNGE HOOD IVT JHX KVYO LSCC LYFT MAT MIR MNTN NET NSP NTST OI PEGA RPD RRR TDC UFCS UPST WELL WPC ZG

• Cantor 2026 Annual Healthcare Ski Summit, 2/9-2/12, in Park City, UT
• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• UBS Financial Services Conference, 2/9-2/11, in Florida
• China PPI/CPI for January

• 8:30 AM ET                 Nonfarm Payrolls for January
• 8:30 AM ET                 Private Payrolls for January
• 8:30 AM ET                 Manufacturing Payrolls for January
• 8:30 AM ET                 Unemployment Rate for January
• 8:30 AM ET                 Average Hourly Earnings M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal budget for January

• Earnings After the Close: AEE ALB AM AMCX APP AR ATEX CFLT CGNX CPA CRK CSCO CW CXT CXW DAR DDI EPRT EQIX FAF FCPT FSLY GFL GTY HUBS IFF INSP LEG MFC MGM MSA MSI NBIX NBR NE NEU NEW OM PAYC PDM PDS PLMR PPC PRCH PRI QDEL QS QTWO ROL RWT RYN SAFE SCI STAG TYL WCN WFG WTS

• Cantor 2026 Annual Healthcare Ski Summit, 2/9-2/12, in Park City, UT

• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• Stifel Transportation & Logistics Conference, 2/11-2/12 in Miami, FL
• TD Cowen 47th Annual Aerospace & Defense Conference, 2/11-2/12, in Arlington VA
• UBS Financial Services Conference, 2/9-2/11, in Florida

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ABNB AEM AIP AMAT ANET BAP BFAM BIO BLX BROS CAE CART COHU COIN CPS CRSR CTRE DKNG DXCM ES EXPE FBIN FLO FORR FROG FRT HASI HCC HR HTGC IR KNSL LGCY MHK MORN NUS PACB PCOR PDFS PINS PSA RIVN ROKU RYAN SBRA SPSC TOST TRUP TSLX TWLO TXG VRTX WYNN YELP

• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• Stifel Transportation & Logistics Conference, 2/11-2/12 in Miami, FL
• TD Cowen 47th Annual Aerospace & Defense Conference, 2/11-2/12, in Arlington VA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline Y/Y for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for January
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data