Closing Recap
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -292.71 | 0.59% | 49,149 |
S&P 500 | -45.11 | 0.63% | 7,064 |
Nasdaq | -144.43 | 0.59% | 24,259 |
Russell 2000 | -28.00 | 1.00% | 2,764 |
US equity futures gained modestly overnight as investors appear to be discounting recent headlines a bit more than they did last week. Headlines have ranged from Iran indicating it has prepared “new surprises” for the potential restart of a war to Trump indicating Iran has violated the ceasefire numerous times to Pakistani sources indicating Iran’s hardline stance is just “posturing.” Additionally, this morning one story even indicated the US believes there is a split between the Iranian negotiators and the IRGC. As a result, the market may have grown immune to the chatter until there is something more definitive. And, of course, earnings are getting started so perhaps that will remind people that this is a market of stocks and not just a stock market. Or maybe not. Trump comments about not wishing to extend the current ceasefire took some steam out of the market. By mid-morning, stocks were holding gains and sentiment also held strong with today’s Fear & Greed Index registering 72/100 (Greed) versus 49 (Neutral) last week and 15 (Extreme Fear) last month. Early breadth favored advancers by 4:3 as small caps outperformed with IWM (+0.85%) versus SPY (+0.28%) and QQQ (+0.38%). Sector performance was tight with Technology (+0.77%), Financials (+0.63%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.61%) outperforming among S&P sector ETFs, while Consumer Staples (-0.28%), Utilities (-0.73%) and Real Estate (-0.81%) paced the underperformers with six sectors gaining versus five declining.
In data of note today, @charliebilello noted 29% of the wealth creation in US stocks over the last 100 years has come from the 10 biggest contributors…so just buy the market as 59% of US stocks have underperformed T-Bills over their lifetime and 45% wind up with a negative cumulative return. In US semis, @KobeissiLetter noted the SOX has rallied for 14 consecutive days and could overtake its record 15-day streak from 2014. Lastly, early earning results have been solid with 91% beating vs 77% LY, but an average beat of 8% vs 23% LY and an average miss of -6% vs -3% LY. Median yr/yr earnings growth thus far has been 15% vs 7% LY.
After a late-morning cross to red, equities never fully recovered heading into the final hour of trading and picked up steam to the downside after reports that VP JD Vance called off his trip to Pakistan after Iran. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is scheduled to expire tomorrow. Attention remains on the expiring peace deal tomorrow night and earnings as the calendar gets busier with reports from UAL, IBKR, CB tonight and then BA, AT&T, PM, BSX, GEV, VRT tomorrow morning.
Economic Data
- March retail sales +1.7% tops consensus +1.4% while Retail Sales Ex-autos +1.9% above consensus +1.4%) and vs Feb +0.7% (prev +0.5%); gasoline sales +15.5% vs Feb +1.3%, cars/parts sales +0.5% vs Feb +1.0% and March Retail Sales Ex-autos/gasoline +0.6% vs Feb +0.6% (prev +0.4%).
- March Pending Home Sales index +1.5% mo/mo (consensus +0.5% and prior +1.8%) and -1.1% from March 2025 (prior -0.8%).
- February Business Inventories +0.4% (consensus +0.3%, prior -0.1%).
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- June gold futures faded slightly overnight and continued to slide during the regular session. Rising interest rates and a stronger Dollar created selling pressure and more than offset safe-haven interest on geopolitical fears with the active contract settling -$109.20, or -2.26%, at $4,719.60.
- Following an overnight dip, WTI crude futures rallied back to green on concerns about the upcoming end of the current ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and uncertainty the two sides will find their way back to the negotiating table. Gains expanded intraday as no progress appeared to have been made and Israel noted it saw chances of a deal as almost non-existent. The June contract settled +$2.25/bbl, or +2.57%, at $89.67.
- U.S. Treasuries slid for a second straight session on Tuesday, as investors grew nervous about a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire that is set to end on Wednesday. the benchmark 10-year yield was last up 3.8 basis points at 4.288%; U.S. 30-year yields drifted higher as well, up 1.4 bps at 4.895% and the 2-yr rose 6.3bps to 3.779%.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 2.25 | 89.67 |
Brent | 3.00 | 98.48 |
Gold | -109.20 | 4,719.60 |
EUR/USD | -0.0039 | 1.1748 |
JPY/USD | 0.54 | 159.28 |
10-Year Note | 0.042 | 4.292% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- Consumer Products: CL was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Redburn and raise tgt to $100 noting since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, the global Home & Personal Care (HPC) sector has given back all its year-to-date gains. Colgate emerges favorably from such analysis given the resilient growth it offers in key divisions (Latin America, Hill's), its strong track record on driving pricing and productivity savings, and an absolute and relative valuation below multi-year average levels.
- In Home Retail: TSCO shares slumped after reported revs $3.59B (vs. est. $3.63B), comparable sales for Q1 +0.5% (vs. est. +1.9%) that missed the average analyst estimate while the co reaffirmed their annual forecasts; Strength in most categories was offset by weakness in the companion animals aisle.
Homebuilders, Building Products, Home Furnishing:
- In Homebuilders: DHI Q2 EPS $2.24 vs. consensus $2.12; Q2 revs $7.6B, in-line with consensus $7.6B; Net sales orders increased 11% to 24,992 homes with an order value of $9.2B; Debt to total capital of 21.7%; Book value per share increased 5% to $82.91; guides FY revs $33.5-$34.5B vs. est. $33.8B.
- Building Products: Bank America previewed the sector saying they expect Q126 earnings at the low end of guidance for most building product manufacturers and distributors and lowers its 2026E/2027 EPS forecasts for the building products companies under coverage by 4%/3% and are now 4%/4% below consensus. Bank America also downgraded MHK to Neutral from Buy (tgt to $122 from $149) given continued weak demand for flooring in the US, incremental input cost inflation (especially oil and Europe Natural gas) and Europe macro headwinds.
Energy
- Reuters reported Russia was forced to reduce oil output in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries, as well as a halt to crude supplies via the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe. In what could be the sharpest monthly decline to Russian output in the six years since the COVID pandemic, Russia may have cut production by about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in April, from the average level seen in the first months of the year, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
- In Oil Services: HAL reported a rise in Q1 profit, as steady demand in Latin America and European markets helped offset a slowdown in activity in the Middle East due to the Iran war; reported Q1 EPS $0.55 vs. est. $0.50 on slightly better revs of $5.4B vs. est. $5.3B.
- In Refiners: VLO was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research with a $203 price target noting the company has benefited from expectations of wider crude spreads and margin uplift from the war in the Middle East, but now sees risk that the "elevated" free cash flow expectations implied by Valero's current valuation cannot be supported
- Oil Majors: XOM was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research citing valuation for the downgrade following the stock's strong share performance. Absent higher oil price assumptions, Exxon's recent performance has left the shares fully valued.
- In Utility Sector: XYL was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and lowered PT to $132 from $152 as sees more near term project delay risks impacting XYL's organic growth, making a return to higher growth in 2026 less certain. Truist initiated coverage on AEE, AEP (fav name), CMS, CNP, DTE, DUK, ETR (a fav name), OGS, PCG, SRE XEL (a fav name) a Buy and Hold ratings on ATO, AWK, D, EIX, EXC, PEG, PNW, SO, and WEC
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
- Regional Banks: WASH reported Q126 EPS of $0.66 (also core), which came in $0.10 below consensus as credit was a blemish this quarter with NPLs increasing to 0.81% of loans; Both loans and deposits were down -2% L/Q; WTFC posted Q1 operating EPS of $3.21, above consensus at $2.95. Upside vs consensus was driven by stronger core fee Income and lower op expenses. RBB posted Q1 operating EPS of $0.66 that was above consensus at 0.45, driven by an LLP reversal (EPS: +$0.10), better core fee Income (+$0.06), stronger NII (+$0.04), and lower NIE. ZION Q1 EPS $1.56 tops consensus $1.43 on revs $860M vs. est. $855.45M.
Insurance & Services:
- Staffing sector: KFRC and RHI were both upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at William Blair saying the risk/reward too compelling to ignore, with sentiment too negative. Investor sentiment in this sector has been broadly negative for years in these names, though Blair said is sensing some early signs of improvement based on recent investor interactions and believe sentiment could improve further as estimates increase. The firm notes stock prices and valuations remain near Cycle-lows. The firm scenario analysis suggests around 40% upside for both Robert Half and for Kforce in a base-case scenario over the next 12 months.
Biotech & Pharma:
- ARWR upgrade to Overweight at Morgan Stanley and raise tgt to $100 from $78 ahead of multiple meaningful catalysts saying expect positive Ph3 SHASTA-3/4 data in Q326 and believe the market opportunity for Plozasiran in SHTG remains underappreciated; expects momentum to continue supported by multiple catalysts.
- AXSM positive comments by Oppenheimer saying they see an attractive setup for shares ahead of the FDA approval decision for Auvelity label expansion into ADA (4/30/26 PDUFA) and scenario analysis forecasts +20% upside with 95% probability vs -35% downside.
- BIOA reported Phase 1 data for BGE-102 showing strong reductions in inflammation markers. The 60 mg dose cut hsCRP by 85% at day 7 and 86% at day 21, while the 120 mg dose showed an 86% reduction at day 14, with no serious adverse events reported.
- MRK Phase 3 LITESPARK-012 trial evaluating combination regimens for the first-line treatment of patients with advanced clear cell RCC did not meet the dual primary endpoints of PFS and OS
- NKTR commences $250M underwritten public offering of common stock.
- SPRB prices public offering of 1,150,000 shares at $50.00 per share
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- In Managed Care: a bounce for the sector after Dow component UNH reported Q1 adj EPS $7.23, tops consensus $6.61; Q1 revenue $111.7B vs. consensus $109.66B; Q1 medical cost ratio 83.9%, down 90 bps y/y and Q1 operating cost ratio of 13.8% compared to 12.4% y/y; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to 'greater than $18.25 per share from prior view greater than $17.75 (shares of ELV, CVS, HUM, CI, CNC moved in reaction).
- In Medical Lab sector: DGX Q1 Revenue $2.90B vs $2.83B consensus estimate beat and adjusted EPS $2.50 also above consensus of $2.35 while raised FY26 revs to $11.78-$11.9B from $11.7B-$11.82B and vs $11.75B estimate, adjusted EPS $10.63-$10.83 from prior $10.50-$10.70 and vs $10.50 est.
- In Life Sciences: DHR Q1 adj EPS $2.06 vs. consensus $1.94; Q1 revenue $6B, in-line with consensus; sees Q2 revenue up in LSD percentage range y/y; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $8.35-$8.55 from $8.35-$8.50.
- Hospital operators (HCA, THC, CYH, UHS): Deutsche Bank said their preliminary March data, n=83 hospitals, continues to show strength and is up 13% Y/Y. January started off slowly at 4.2%, February accelerated to 5.1% and now March at 13% gets us to 1Q:26 hospital revenues of 6.6% versus the Street at 3.9%.
- Healthcare Services: HIMS shares declined after AMZN announced the launch of a comprehensive GLP-1 Management Program through Amazon One Medical that integrates primary care, pharmacy services, and virtual care options to help patients achieve lasting weight loss results.
Industrials & Materials
- In Industrials: GE Q1 adjusted EPS $1.86, tops consensus $1.60; Q1 adj revenue $11.61B, tops consensus $10.71B; still sees FY26 adjusted EPS $7.10-$7.40 vs. est. $7.46 and sees FY adjusted free cash flow $8B-$8.4B; said it was on track to hit the high end of its 2026 profit outlook of $7.10-$7.40; VMI reported better Q1 results and guidance helped by electrical beat. MMM posts Q1 sales $6B, mostly in-line on better adj EPS of $2.14.
- Elon Musk increased his stake in SpaceX last year by purchasing $1.4B worth of stock from current and former employees, The Information reported. SpaceX also approved a plan last month that would award the billionaire CEO 60 million additional shares if the company's market capitalization climbs from $1.1T to as high as $6.6T.
- In Space: Global investment in space companies surged to a record in the first quarter of 2026, driven by larger late-stage financing and growing investor enthusiasm over SpaceX's public market debut, data from investment firm Seraphim Space showed on Tuesday. Funding reached $7.95B during the quarter, nearly double the $3.93B in the previous three-month period, pushing the trailing 12-month investment to an all-time high of $18.8B. Deal count also rose to 159 transactions, bringing the annual total to a record 654.
- In Defense: NOC Q1 sales rose 4% y/y to $9.88B topped consensus $9.75B on better EPS $6.14 vs. est. $6.06; Q1 net awards $9.8B, backlog $95.6B at qtr-end; reaffirms 2026 guidance for sales, segment operating income, MTM-adjusted EPS, and free cash flow and sees continued strong demand and robust bookings. RTX Q1 adj EPS $1.78 vs est. $1.52 and sales $22.08B vs est. $21.47B; guides Fy26 adj sales $92.5B-$93.5B vs prior outlook of $92B- $93B and also raises FY26 adj EPS $6.70-$6.90 vs prior outlook of $6.60 - $6.80
Materials, Metals & Mining
- Paper & Packaging: BALL was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James with a $73 price target as views the company as the most buttoned up on cost pass-throughs and hedges and believes structural tailwinds for the beverage can continue to support outsized growth. The firm also downgraded GPK to Underperform at Raymond James as sees outsized risk to consensus 2026 estimates and Graphic's free cash flow targets. While the Graphic's 90-day review could be a positive catalyst, any turnaround is more macro-dependent and subject to consumer packaged goods companies aggressively pushing volume.
- Rare Earth sector: METC upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs, with 8% upside to its new 12-mo price target of $15 vs 19% average upside across its metals and mining coverage as view is supported by the company's valuation coming down to more palpable levels, and it attributes the weakness to operational shifts regarding its rare earths business, which it had initially viewed as causing the company to be relatively overvalued.
Internet, Media & Telecom
- In AI/Data Centers: AMZN said it Anthropic are deepening their collaboration with a commitment from Anthropic to spend more than $100B over the next ten years on Amazon Web Service technologies. Separately, Amazon will invest $5B in Anthropic today and up to an additional $20B in the future tied to certain commercial milestones. This is in addition to the $8B Amazon previously invested in Anthropic. (shares of AMZN suppliers MRVL, CRDO, ALAB rallied on the news as well) The WSJ reported OpenAI is working with a slew of Consulting firms, including Accenture, Capgemini and PricewaterhouseCoopers, to help sell its artificial-intelligence coding tool Codex to businesses. Also, OpenAI said it reached four million weekly active Codex users, up from three million just two weeks ago. The Ai company said it had more than two million users last month.
- Data Centers: CORZ announces offering of $3.3B of Senior secured notes as proceeds to fund debt service reserve and repay delayed draw term loans. HUT price tgt raised to $93 from $74 at Piper and RIOT to $23 from $21. Piper notes HUT is the best-performing miner in Piper's coverage year-to-date, but it thinks the stock has legs. Given Hut and Anthropic's existing agreement to jointly diligence 1.05 GW critical IT of data center sites, Piper believes it is highly probable that Anthropic Partners with Hut on a portion of this deployment. For RIOT, Piper views Corsicana and Rockdale (Dallas and Austin, TX, respectively) as Crown jewel data center sites — and believe Riot remains the sleeping giant of the Bitcoin miner conversion space.
- Internet & Social Media: SNAP announced that CFO Derek Anderson will be leaving the Company for a new opportunity and that it plans to appoint VP of Finance Doug Hott to CFO effective May 8 who served as a Senior member of Snap's finance team for the past six-plus years. Bank America raises tgt for CVNA to $410 given recent acceleration in Unit growth but see a high Bar for GPUs in Q1 and EBAY to $110. META’s WhatsApp is joining Instagram in selling premium versions of the product via a subscription, per Bloomberg.
Hardware & Software movers:
- In Hardware sector: AAPL announced on Sept. 1, John Ternus, Senior vice President of hardware engineering, will take over the reins from CEO Tim Cook. Ternus had been seen as an heir. He has led the charge on Apple Devices that use Ai and is the champion of the sold out MacBook Neo.
- Security Software: CRWD upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at Keybanc with $525 PT as they see Mythos as a catalyst for accelerating Security budgets, the breadth and depth of the Falcon platform well positioned to capitalize on near term hygiene priorities and long-term runtime Defense requirements, strong defensibility to Ai-disruption risk, and an incremental competitive advantage from its Glasswing inclusion.
Semiconductors:
- AXTI announces pricing of $550M public offering of common stock with 8.6M shares at $64.25 per share.
- INTC was upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC and raise tgt to $95 from $50 saying server CPU upside still not in the price: Since April 1, Intel has seen a sharp rally with its stock up 60% (vs Nasdaq +16%), mainly driven by its repurchase of an equity interest in Ireland Fab and the announcement that it is joining the Terafab project as a Foundry partner, but firm continues to believe the server CPU business is the key near-term catalyst to drive earnings upside and is still not priced in.
- MRVL, ALAB, CRDO advance on AMZN/Anthropic agreement: MRVL is the key supplier of custom Trainium 2 ASIC chips to AWS and this deal for 5GW of capacity will include more Trainium 2 capacity slated to come online in 1H’26 and 1GW of new T2 capacity and next gen Trainium 3 capacity out by end of ’26. ALAB and CRDO trading higher as they are key copper based high speed cable suppliers for AMZN designed compute racks. Also noted that FN is rapidly expanding production of a key PCB design for AMZN where revenues are growing y/y.