Early Look

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

U.S. futures are looking slightly higher while Nasdaq futures dip behind weak technology shares for a third day as Wall Street awaits key inflation data at 8:30 am et. All eyes on inflation data as the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M is expected to rise +0.6% (prior +0.4%) and on a Y/Y basis to rise +3.6% (prior +3.4%). The core CPI, or Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September est. +0.2% (prior +0.3%) and Y/Y for September est. +2.5% (prior +2.4%). Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday after an attack on the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, while Iranian officials told Reuters they were deploying new tactics to ‌target ships. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index slipped -33 points to 67,744, the Shanghai Index fell -33 points to 3,767, the Hang Seng Index fell -31 points to 24,314, and the Kospi dropped -5 points to 936. In Europe, the German DAX is up 124 points to 25,384, while the FTSE 100is up 30 points to 10,680. Stocks were poised for a recovery as a chip sell-off eased in South Korea as the KOSPI index was down only slightly after a 12% decline over the past five days. ASML shares helping semis early as it boosted guidance for the year. Elsewhere, the parade of financial company earnings continues with results from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -179.56 points, or 0.35%, to 51,670.99
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -41.52 points, or 0.15%, to 27,204.38
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -11.09 points, or 0.40% to 2,783.39

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for Sept…est. +0.6% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for Sept…est. +3.6% (prior +3.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September…est. +0.2% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September…est. +2.5% (prior +2.4%)
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for September

• Earnings After the Close: EDUC EQBK HOMB

• Paris Auto show, 10/12-10/18
• SEMICON West, 10/13-10/14, in San Francisco, CA

• China’s state-owned trading firms purchased 8-10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans this week, marking the first such deals since the September summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Reuters reported, citing sources. The Panamax cargoes, each carrying about 65,000 metric tons, are scheduled for shipment from December onward.

• Brinker International (EAT), the owner of casual-dining chain Chili, was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and rose tgt to $255 saying Chili's comeback is complete - sales per restaurant rose to over $5 million from $3 million in 3 to 4 years. Expects growth from menu updates, busier restaurants, new locations, remodels and share buybacks.
• GameStop (GME) CEO Ryan Cohen bought another $22.8M worth of the video game retailer’s shares, increasing his total ownership to 9.1%. According to a regulatory filing on Tuesday, Cohen purchased 844,130 shares at prices ranging from $26.75 to $27 per share.

• BHP Inc. (BHP) supervisors' union at its Escondida copper mine in Chile and company representatives have reached a preliminary agreement to avoid a strike, two sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters on Wednesday.
• Enovix Corp (ENVX) announces a 100,000-unit battery purchase order from a multinational provider of dual-use drone systems. Deliveries are scheduled for H1 2027, with the co expecting follow-on orders for the program in H2 2027.
• Huntington Ingalls (HII) said that its Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS) division was awarded a $56 million contract by the U.S. Navy for shipbuilding engineering and design.
• Weyerhaeuser (WY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America saying while the company's near-term conditions are challenging, asset-based equity stories in packaging are often most attractive when sentiment is weak.

• The Treasury Department fined Bank of America (BAC) about $1.21 billion for long-term failures to stop money laundering and for breaking U.S. sanctions rules.

• Quoin Pharmaceuticals (QNRX) announces that its lead product candidate QRX003 has been granted Orphan Drug Designation in Europe by the European Medicines Agency, or EMA, for the treatment of Peeling Skin Syndrome
• Verastem Oncology (VSTM) announced positive initial efficacy and updated safety and tolerability data in first multi-tumor clinical data update from the ongoing TARGET-D 101 Phase 1/2 clinical trial evaluating VS-7375, an investigational and potential best-in-class oral KRAS G12D (ON/OFF) inhibitor, in patients with advanced KRAS G12D-mutated solid tumors.

• AT&T Inc. (T) has reached an agreement to sell AT&T Mexico to Grupo Televisa and Fintech Holdings for $2 billion in cash at closing, subject to certain adjustments, plus additional contractual and contingent benefits.
• Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) files for mixed shelf offering as size not disclosed.
• Skydance (SKYD) shares of the company, which recently changed its name from Paramount, fell 18% premarket before being halted. The decline is largely a technical adjustment, as stock warrants issued as part of its deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery start trading separately.

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

U.S. stocks reversed overnight strength, down on the morning after the September consumer price index (CPI) came in hotter than expected as Headline CPI was up 3.7% on an annual basis, and the ex-food and energy core rate was up 2.6%, both above consensus and prior month readings. The data sent bond yield jumping as the shorter term 2-yr yield hit highest level since Sept 29, last up 12 basis points at 4.92% as odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month are increasing. Technology (XLK) is the 2^nd best performer on 2026, up 35% YTD (behind Energy XLE +50%), but it is the only sector so far in October that is down in the S&P (-0.9%) with Energy (XLE) up 9% in 2 weeks and Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) both up over 5%. Semiconductor chip stocks (SOX, SMH) are on track for a sixth consecutive fall—their worst run since May 2025 as the rotation away from tech continues. A big event for the AI sector later today is the Private Investor Day/Pre-IPO Meeting for Anthropic, holding a closed-door meeting today with selected institutional investors at its San Francisco headquarters. It is expected to cover updated Q3 financials ahead of a possible IPO – could be a boost or bust for AI space today. Financials are the session's epicenter again after Bank of America tumbles 8.2% on a Q3 revenue miss and $1.2B regulatory settlement charge, with State Street and Morgan Stanley also fall post results, while Progressive slides on its quarterly print; XLF is the second-worst sector on the day.

• MBA Mortgage Applications index fell -2.7% to 199.2 in the Oct 9 week, as the purchase index fell -4.0% to 139.3 and the refinance index fell -0.4% to 513.5; the average 30-year mortgage rate rose 1 basis point to 7.50%, its highest level since November 2023.

• Neoclouds and data center names extend yearly declines in sharp downturn this year, with NBIS, CRWV, IREN, HUT, WULF, CIFR all falling notably as higher yields impacting borrowing as well as continued regulatory concerns ahead of midterm elections. Power and industrial names have also seen recent declines in names like CAT, ETN, GEV and others.
• HVAC sector: Goldman Sachs upgraded TT from Neutral to Buy, while downgraded shares of LII and CARR to Neutral from Buy. Goldman said they sees upside to 2027/2028 EPS for TT as it believes organic growth is likely to meaningfully accelerate on the back of orders >+20% for three consecutive quarters and a robust backlog going into next year. The firm downgraded LII as Resi HVAC expectations for next year appear too high given the demand weakness it is experiencing in Resi new construction and for CARR, they see risk to incremental margins next year given negative mix from a growing DC business and that they will be ramping capacity rapidly in Tandem.
• Restaurant sector: EAT, the owner of casual-dining chain Chili, was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and rose tgt to $255 saying Chili's comeback is complete - sales per restaurant rose to over $5M from $3M in 3 to 4 years. Expects growth from menu updates, busier restaurants, new locations, remodels and share buybacks. The firm also upgraded TXRH to Buy from Hold as sees an attractive entry point following the stock's pullback noting Texas Roadhouse offers a consistent, quality growth story that should sustain above-peer sales and EBITDA growth.

• ALB +2%; was upgraded to Outperform at Mizuho as strong Battery Energy Stationary Storage demand has tipped market balance into favorable territory. Strong BESS outlook lifted 2027 demand by ~10% vs previous estimate, while supply was ~flat.
• BLK +2%; on results as Q3 adj EPS $15.93 tops consensus $14.30 and revs $7.75B vs. consensus $7.43B; Q3 net inflows $205.47B vs. $205.64B last year and Q3 AUM $15.49T, up 15% y/y; Net flows into BlackRock's debt products were $78.2 billion in the quarter.
• BSP +34%; jumped after Berkshire Hathaway invests an additional $330 mln in Bending Spoons. Fresh investment brings Berkshire's total investment in the co to $930M, following a $600B investment at the July 2026 IPO (Berkshire's ownership stake in co rises to 4%).
• GFS +5%; has been selected to build and operate two new semiconductor fabs in New York under a U.S.-Japan initiative providing up to $21B in funding. The first $10B fab is expected online in 2029, with a second $10B facility planned to expand U.S. chip production.
• LQDA +30%; after the company announced it reached a global settlement with UTHR to resolve key ongoing legal disputes between the companies, paying $175M. BTIG upgraded to Buy saying based on the details of the agreement, is better than the best-case scenario envisioned.
• VSTM +14%; as announced positive initial efficacy and updated safety and tolerability data in first multi-tumor clinical data update from the ongoing TARGET-D 101 Phase 1/2 clinical trial evaluating VS-7375, an investigational and potential best-in-class oral KRAS G12D (ON/OFF) inhibitor.

• BAC -7%; Q3 EPS of $0.91 missed the $1.10 consensus estimate and revs of $30B just shy of the $30.58B estimate; the results come after the Treasury Department said yesterday that it fined the bank $1.2 billion after finding it had insufficient systems to monitor for financial crimes.
• DHI 2%; along with other homebuilders BZH, KBH, LEN, TOL among others after hotter CPI print; raises rate hike fears/mortgage rates.
• FAST -4%; as September average daily sales, a closely watched gauge of demand, grew 14.4% y/y, below investor views of about 17%-18%, despite strong beats on gross and EBIT margins; Q3 revs of $2.46B beats est. of $2.44B.
• IONQ -6%; declined after saying it would sell 20.5 mln shares and pre-funded warrants to buy 29.5 mln shares at $40. It also sells 7-yr warrants to buy ~100 mln additional shares; warrants' exercise price is $69.46, double the stock's last close.

Closing Recap

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

All major U.S. stock indexes were sharply red with the Smallcap Russell 2000 and Nasdaq off the most, both falling around ~2% as technology (XLK) was the weakest S&P 500 sector down -3%; healthcare and consumer staples led, both up over 2% as inflation concerns grow. Year-over-year, Sept CPI posted a 3.7% increase, an acceleration from the prior month's 3.4% growth, and a tad hotter than the 3.6% consensus. Meanwhile core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices printed on monthly and annual bases at 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively, both above prior and economist expectations. Following the data, the dollar spiked along with Treasury yields, sinking U.S. stock markets and precious metals as a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision later this month may be a closer call than previously thought following the data. Higher gasoline prices from the Middle East war were a main driver. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 saw declines of more than 2% late day. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPX) posted its first down day of more than -1% since July 29th when it fell -1.52% while the QQQ posted its first down day of more than -2% since July 29th as well when it fell -2.06%.

Interest rate sensitive stocks (homebuilders, dividend paying stocks, mortgage stocks) and those impacted by higher borrowing costs (tech companies) saw notable declines again today as Treasury yields jumps and stock markets declined on a hotter CPI inflation report, raising prospects of a potential Fed rate hike in October or more this year. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell a third straight day off recent record highs, the VIX (fear) index hit its highest levels in 2 weeks, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) also fell a third straight day off record highs (down 5 of last 6) with semiconductors (SOX, SMH) and AI infrastructure companies (NBIS, CRWV, ORCL, IREN, HUT, DELL) tumbling as prospects of higher interest rates intensified concerns over the financing of the industry's massive buildout. Companies whose shares had rallied earlier this year on AI optimism were some of the worst performers on the main benchmarks. Financials have also sunk since earnings started with shares of BAC, Citi, WFC, STT all notable declines post earnings. 10-year Treasury yields climbed 3.6 bps, two-year yields jumped 7.2 bps

• MBA Mortgage Applications index fell -2.7% to 199.2 in the Oct 9 week, as the purchase index fell -4.0% to 139.3 and the refinance index fell -0.4% to 513.5; the average 30-year mortgage rate rose 1 basis point to 7.50%, its highest level since November 2023.

• Bonds weak early, but surprisingly rallied throughout the day (sending yields lower) despite stock market weakness on CPI. Yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds hits session low, last down 3.2 basis points at 5.531% and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields last up 2.98 basis points at 4.823% (earlier above 4.92%) and the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 1 bps to 5.206% (off highs around 5.3%).
• Oil prices edged higher, with WTI crude rising $0.95 or 1.01% to settle at $95.09 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose $0.37 or 0.35% to settle at $106.06 per barrel

• Restaurant sector: EAT, the owner of casual-dining chain Chili, was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and rose tgt to $255 saying Chili's comeback is complete - sales per restaurant rose to over $5M from $3M in 3 to 4 years. Expects growth from menu updates, busier restaurants, new locations, remodels and share buybacks. The firm also upgraded TXRH to Buy from Hold as sees an attractive entry point following the stock's pullback noting Texas Roadhouse offers a consistent, quality growth story that should sustain above-peer sales and EBITDA growth.
• Retail sector: KTB was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and raised tgt to $89, more constructive on the shares after spending time with management and analyzing the denim space. GME CEO Ryan Cohen bought another $22.8M worth of the video game retailer’s shares, increasing his total ownership to 9.1%. According to a regulatory filing on Tuesday, Cohen purchased 844,130 shares at prices ranging from $26.75 to $27 per share

• The national entry point to luxury housing edged down to $1,199,321 in September, Realtor.com said, 3.6% below a year ago and the 30th consecutive month of annual price declines. Every luxury tier is cheaper than a year ago, with the threshold for the top 5% of listings down 3.5% and the top 1% down 5.3%. Even so, luxury homes are selling faster than they were last September. Listings at the 90th percentile spent a median of 76 days on the market, three days fewer than a year ago.
• Building Materials sector: VMC and MLM estimates reduced at Oppenheimer to reflect 1) cost-related headwinds, particularly higher energy costs since end of Q2 which are also indirectly influencing other cost inputs, and expected to impact core Aggregates/Asphalt Mix profitability; and 2) tempered F27 volume expectations, considering elevated interest rates with some moderation in public bid lettings within core markets.

• HVAC sector: Goldman Sachs upgraded TT from Neutral to Buy, while downgraded shares of LII and CARR to Neutral from Buy. Goldman said they sees upside to 2027/2028 EPS for TT as it believes organic growth is likely to meaningfully accelerate on the back of orders >+20% for three consecutive quarters and a robust backlog going into next year. The firm downgraded LII as Resi HVAC expectations for next year appear too high given the demand weakness it is experiencing in Resi new construction and for CARR, they see risk to incremental margins next year given negative mix from a growing DC business and that they will be ramping capacity rapidly in Tandem.
• Industrial and power stocks: along with the weakness in the AI trade, shares of power generating companies that have benefitted greatly from the AI growth trade over the last year or so, saw notable declines today along with semis and data center stocks with PWR, MTZ, CAT, GNRC, ETN, VRT among many of the names tumbling.
• Materials sector: lithium producer ALB was upgraded to Outperform at Mizuho as strong Battery Energy Stationary Storage demand has tipped market balance into favorable territory. Strong BESS outlook lifted 2027 demand by ~10% vs previous estimate, while supply was ~flat.
• Metals & Mining: gold and silver miners slid along with precious metals prices as a stronger-than-expected inflation reading increased US Federal Reserve rate hike bets for this month; shares of AEM, AG, B, CDE, HL, NEM, WPM were notably weaker.

• Trust banks: STT tumbled on earnings as Q3 results mostly in-line with consensus (EPS $3.69 on revs $4B) on better Net Interest Income (NII) at $864M (vs. est $852.9M); guided FY26 NII up 15%-16% y/y vs. prior view up 14%-15%, fee revenue up 13%-14% y/y vs. prior view up 12%-13% but also sees expenses up 8%-8.5% y/y vs. prior view of up about 8%.
• Insurance sector: PGR shares tumbled after reporting Q3 net income of $2.5B, or $4.37 per share, vs $2.62B, or $4.45 per share, a year earlier as company-wide policies-in-force growth slowed to 6% in September from 7% in June.
• Asset managers: BLK Q3 adj EPS $15.93 tops consensus $14.30 and revs $7.75B vs. consensus $7.43B; Q3 net inflows $205.47B vs. $205.64B last year and Q3 AUM $15.49T, up 15% y/y; Net flows into BlackRock's debt products were $78.2 billion in the quarter.

• ETON and AQST announce exclusive U.S. licensing agreement for Libervant Buccal film.
• LQDA shares jump after the company announced it reached a global settlement with UTHR to resolve key ongoing legal disputes between the companies, paying $175M. BTIG upgraded to Buy saying based on the details of the agreement, is better than the best-case scenario envisioned.
• QNRX announces that its lead product candidate QRX003 has been granted Orphan Drug Designation in Europe by the European Medicines Agency, or EMA, for the treatment of Peeling Skin Syndrome
• VIR rises after signing collaboration and license agreement with GILD for three candidates targeting selected solid tumor-associated antigens; VIR will be eligible to receive up to $135M in total upfront and near-term preclinical milestone payments, and has the potential to receive up to $1.74B in further milestones, along with tiered royalties on net sales.
• VSTM announced positive initial efficacy and updated safety and tolerability data in first multi-tumor clinical data update from the ongoing TARGET-D 101 Phase 1/2 clinical trial evaluating VS-7375, an investigational and potential best-in-class oral KRAS G12D (ON/OFF) inhibitor.
• VKTX announces initiation of vk2735 oral phase 3 clinical program in patients with obesity.

• Media sector: NFLX is cutting 6% of its staff, or roughly 1,000 positions globally, its biggest round of layoffs since 2022, as it struggles with slowing growth and customer engagement; the bulk of the cuts would be in the streaming giant's product, tech, legal and human-resources teams. SKYD shares of the company, which recently changed its name from Paramount, fell sharply, largely a technical adjustment, as stock warrants issued as part of its deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery start trading separately, as per the WSJ.

• IT Services & Consulting: ACN said it sees revenue to grow in the mid-single digits in Fy27 and 2028, followed by mid- to high-single-digit growth in FY29. According to ACN's securities filing, the consulting firm also expects operating margin to expand by 10 to 30 basis points annually from fiscal 2027 through fiscal 2029. Accenture cited acquisitions as a driver for its organic growth.
• Software sector: shares of BSP jumped after Berkshire Hathaway invests an additional $330 mln in Bending Spoons. Fresh investment brings Berkshire's total investment in the co to $930M, following a $600B investment at the July 2026 IPO (Berkshire's ownership stake in co rises to 4%).
• Quantum sector: shares of IONQ declined after saying it would sell 20.5 mln shares and pre-funded warrants to buy 29.5 mln shares at $40. It also sells 7-yr warrants to buy ~100 mln additional shares; warrants' exercise price is $69.46, double the stock's last close.

• GFS has been selected to build and operate two new semiconductor fabs in New York under a U.S.-Japan initiative providing up to $21B in funding. The first $10B fab is expected online in 2029, with a second $10B facility planned to expand U.S. chip production.
• SKHY extends declines in recent memory sector pullback; overnight, a report out that Sk Hynix has postponed orders for certain back-end Equipment for its sixth-generation HBM4 to next year, resulting in a slower-than-expected pace of capacity expansion.

Street Recommendations

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

• DELL Barclays downgraded Dell Technologies to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $574, down from $603. The firm is taking a more cautious approach on IT hardware stocks "that are more aligned with enterprise spending." Valuations have moved up significantly, commodity costs have helped revenues, and "we don't see a meaningful AI inflection yet," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays downgraded three names in the group.
• HPE Barclays analyst Tim Long downgraded HPE to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $77, down from $83. The firm is taking a more cautious approach on IT hardware stocks "that are more aligned with enterprise spending." Valuations have moved up significantly, commodity costs have helped revenues, and "we don't see a meaningful AI inflection yet," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays downgraded three names in the group.
• AA Barclays initiated coverage of Alcoa with an Overweight rating and $55 price target. The firm rolled out coverage seven North America companies encompassing the aluminum, steel, and copper industries. Barclays' Overweight-rated names include Alcoa and Kaiser Aluminum. For Alcoa, the firm believes weaker aluminum expectations and near-term alumina pressure are largely reflected in the share price.
• KALU Barclays initiated coverage of Kaiser Aluminum with an Overweight rating and $180 price target. The firm rolled out coverage seven North America companies encompassing the aluminum, steel, and copper industries. Barclays' Overweight-rated names include Alcoa and Kaiser Aluminum. The firm views Kaiser as a "high-quality provider" of specialty aluminum mill products, with leading positions in "hard-to-qualify" aerospace plate and coated packaging, and a pass-through model that maintains margin stability through metal cycles.
• AZZ Barclays analyst Richard Garchitorena initiated coverage of AZZ Inc. with an Equal Weight rating and $140 price target. The firm rolled out coverage seven North America companies encompassing the aluminum, steel, and copper industries. Barclays' Overweight-rated names include Alcoa and Kaiser Aluminum.
• CENX Barclays initiated coverage of Century Aluminum with an Equal Weight rating and $40 price target. The firm rolled out coverage seven North America companies encompassing the aluminum, steel, and copper industries. Barclays' Overweight-rated names include Alcoa and Kaiser Aluminum.
• CSTM Barclays analyst Richard Garchitorena initiated coverage of Constellium with an Equal Weight rating and $28 price target. The firm rolled out coverage seven North America companies encompassing the aluminum, steel, and copper industries. Barclays' Overweight-rated names include Alcoa and Kaiser Aluminum.
• RS Barclays initiated coverage of Reliance with an Equal Weight rating and $420 price target. The firm rolled out coverage seven North America companies encompassing the aluminum, steel, and copper industries. Barclays' Overweight-rated names include Alcoa and Kaiser Aluminum.

• JNJ Bernstein raised the firm's price target on Johnson & Johnson to $270 from $261 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm notes J&J reported a solid Q3, with 6.1% organic sales growth and a 3% EPS beat. Innovative Medicine strength and U.S. momentum offset a 1.5% MedTech miss driven by international headwinds and Abiomed weakness. Management nudged up FY26 guidance and remains confident in double-digit sales growth by the end of the decade, though FY27 EPS growth could be flattish due to a tough comp, substantial LOE headwinds, and a step-up in Firefly/Sail dilution.
• GD Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on General Dynamics to $365 from $407 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm believes the Q3 setup for U.S. defense remains difficult, with the budget stalled in Congress, preventing the FY27 to be fully passed, delaying funding for many programs. The path to a budget remains uncertain, with November 3 midterm elections potentially providing some clarity. Before the election, Bernstein sees little that can help these stocks.
• HII Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on HII to $307 from $327 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm believes the Q3 setup for U.S. defense remains difficult, with the budget stalled in Congress, preventing the FY27 to be fully passed, delaying funding for many programs. The path to a budget remains uncertain, with November 3 midterm elections potentially providing some clarity. Before the election, Bernstein sees little that can help these stocks.
• LHX Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned lowered the firm's price target on L3Harris Technologies to $318 from $346 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm believes the Q3 setup for U.S. defense remains difficult, with the budget stalled in Congress, preventing the FY27 to be fully passed, delaying funding for many programs. The path to a budget remains uncertain, with November 3 midterm elections potentially providing some clarity. Before the election, Bernstein sees little that can help these stocks.
• LMT Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Lockheed Martin to $564 from $629 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm believes the Q3 setup for U.S. defense remains difficult, with the budget stalled in Congress, preventing the FY27 to be fully passed, delaying funding for many programs. The path to a budget remains uncertain, with November 3 midterm elections potentially providing some clarity. Before the election, Bernstein sees little that can help these stocks.
• NOC Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Northrop Grumman to $556 from $620 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm believes the Q3 setup for U.S. defense remains difficult, with the budget stalled in Congress, preventing the FY27 to be fully passed, delaying funding for many programs. The path to a budget remains uncertain, with November 3 midterm elections potentially providing some clarity. Before the election, Bernstein sees little that can help these stocks.

• WY BofA analyst George Staphos upgraded Weyerhaeuser to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $25, down from $28. While the company's near-term conditions are challenging, "asset-based equity stories" in packaging are often most attractive when sentiment is weak, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BofA sees an opportunity in Weyerhaeuser shares amid the negative sentiment.
• DPZ BofA lowered the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza to $410 from $455 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following Q3 outperformance, the firm slightly raises FY26 estimates to reflect higher second half pricing and supply-chain outperformance, but uses a lower multiple to reflect slower unit growth and reduced visibility into franchisee profit recovery.
• JNJ BofA analyst Jason Gerberry lowered the firm's price target on Johnson & Johnson to $275 from $282 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares, stating that the company delivered "okay 3Q results." Exiting Q3, the firm "modestly" increased its pharma forecast on Tremfya strength and some tightening of loss of exclusivity assumptions, but partly offset by MedTech, adding that the stock having underperformed yesterday is possibly due to a reversal of the safety trade and MedTech weakness.

• CRWD BTIG analyst Gray Powell raised the firm's price target on CrowdStrike to $312 from $245 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Investors are underestimating both the pace of AI security adoption and its potential impact on CrowdStrike's long-term growth profile, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG adds that its fieldwork suggests AI security is rapidly evolving from a strategic discussion into a meaningful spending category, with platform vendors emerging as early beneficiaries.

• BNTX Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on BioNTech to $132 from $136 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the BNT113 (FixVac) missing statistical significance on Progression Free Survival (PFS) in its Ph2/3 study in Head and Neck Cancer, while noting the study will continue to evaluate Overall Survival. The PFS miss today is unfortunate; particularly as investor enthusiasm for mRNA cancer vaccines has increased considerably.

• PG Citi raised the firm's price target on Procter & Gamble to $180 from $170 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Citi also added an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on Procter & Gamble ahead of the fiscal Q1 earnings report on October 22. The company will benefit from improving growth in the U.S. and potential for upside in China, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• GXO Goldman Sachs upgraded GXO Logistics to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $61. The firm sees a more attractive risk/reward following the stock's recent de-rating amid the company's turnaround. GXO is positioned to benefit from conditions in the "fragmented and growing" contract logistics market and to significantly expand its U.S. business, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman believes the launch of standardized best practices and AI automation tools should lift GXO's margins towards the peer average, driving higher free cash flow. The stock in premarket trading is up 3% to $47.90.

• EAT Jefferies analyst Andy Barish upgraded Brinker to Buy from Hold with a price target of $255, up from $230. The firm sees a "clear transition" for Brinker from a turnaround into a "durable, compounding story." The company's value creation opportunity is underappreciated as its higher-volume and margin platform "creates a flywheel of reinvestment to drive years of consistent growth and share gain," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies believes Brinker's turnaround stage is over.
• TXRH Jefferies analyst Andy Barish upgraded Texas Roadhouse to Buy from Hold with a price target of $190, up from $186. The firm sees an attractive entry point following the stock's pullback. Texas Roadhouse offers a "consistent, quality growth story" that should sustain above-peer sales and EBITDA growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies believes the company's fundamentals are intact while easing beef inflation provide a potential source of incremental EBITDA upside in 2027, "creating a path to stock upside without needing to stretch the multiple."
• KTB Jefferies upgraded Kontoor Brands to Buy from Hold with a price target of $89, up from $82. The firm is more constructive on the shares after spending time with management and analyzing the denim space. Kontoor offers a "compelling" multi-yr acceleration growth story within apparel that relies on company-specific actions, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies views the stock's valuation as "overly pessimistic" given Kontoor's growth opportunity across both Wrangler and Helly Hansen.

• KEX JPMorgan initiated coverage of Kirby with an Overweight rating and $200 price target, implying 40% upside from current levels. Kirby is the largest U.S. tank barge operator, moving petrochemicals, black oil, refined products, and agricultural chemicals, while its distribution and services segment supplies power generation equipment and industrial services, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan sees a favorable risk/reward for the shares from "tight" inland supply and demand, strong utilization, data center-driven power demand.
• SXI JPMorgan initiated coverage of Standex with a Neutral rating and $320 price target, implying 10% upside from current levels. The firm is constructive on the business, saying it has been repositioned through portfolio simplification into a focused, engineering-led manufacturing compounder. It cites valuation for the Neutral rating.
• BRKR JPMorgan analyst Casey Woodring downgraded Bruker to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $60. The firm is "incrementally more cautious" on the company's outlook over the next 12 months. Bruker has less relative exposure to the "healthiest" tools end market, biotech, and the highest exposure in core tools to the one end market that has lagged, academic and government, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SHC JPMorgan downgraded Sotera Health to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $17, down from $18. While the company's Sterigenics volumes performed well in Q2, investor caution on forward looking volume growth against the uncertain medical device end market backdrop indicates the shares will continue to underperform on a relative basis, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Sotera's peers are more exposed to the "healthier" trends in the biotech end market and
• RBLX JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Roblox to $53 from $40 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares ahead of the Q3 earnings report. The firm cites Roblox's recent recommended for you algorithm changes, "solid" concurrent users data, and improved execution across its monetization initiatives for the target boost. JPMorgan projects Roblox's bookings to declines 10% year-over-year in Q3 verses the down 14% to 18% guidance.

• MUR Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Murphy Oil to $44 from $41 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The firm expects a 3% EBITDA beat and believes investor focus will largely shift toward the 2027 capital program. It cites elevated oil prices and Murphy's successful exploration activity for the target bump.
• NOG Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Northern Oil and Gas to $30 from $29 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The firm expects the company to report a 7% beat on EBITDA but expects consensus capex estimates to move higher as analysts mark to market following the company's recent operational update.

• GS RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Goldman Sachs to $1,010 from $1,220 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares after its Q3 results. The company has intensified its focus on building consistent revenues by growing its Wealth & Asset Management fees and its Private Banking and Lending businesses, which reported a combined $4.6B in revenue in the quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds however that its estimates of higher 2026 and 2027 EPS are offset by higher expenses.

• FIG Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane lowered the firm's price target on Figma to $22 from $25 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm expects Figma to deliver 3-4 points of upside in Q3 with the company facing tougher comps from 2025 pricing actions and newer AI products remaining early days, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• IQV Stifel raised the firm's price target on Iqvia to $303 from $276 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which expects Iqvia to outperform consensus expectations in Q3 for all guided metrics, sees good momentum going into 2027 and thinks "the bias to numbers will continue to be upward over the next several quarters."

• WDAY UBS lowered the firm's price target on Workday (WDAY) to $210 from $220 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Workday reaffirmed its FY28 guidance for 11% revenue growth and 200 basis points of operating margin expansion without providing FY29+ targets, a more cautious approach than Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) that may reflect accelerating AI-driven change and Workday's mixed track record of exceeding prior guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GOOGL UBS raised the firm's price target on Alphabet to $380 from $379 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Overhangs around disruption from ChatGPT ads and more AI integration in Search have waned, but UBS doesn't see a catalyst to change direction positively on the horizon either, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SNAP UBS analyst Stephen Ju raised the firm's price target on Snap to $7 from $5.70 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Ad checks suggest Snap continues to struggle for advertiser prioritization despite an improving digital advertising backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TTD UBS lowered the firm's price target on Trade Desk (TTD) to $15 from $16 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The price target reduction reflects a weaker budget allocation backdrop as well as ad checks feedback suggesting ongoing attrition to Amazon (AMZN), the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• META UBS raised the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $884 from $715 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Meta's Business Agents rollout and ramping Muse usage are laying the groundwork for two GenAI revenue streams through WhatsApp and Messenger monetization and potential share gains in search advertising, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Ad checks showing strong year-to-date incrementality from AI automation and recommendations strengthen the case for expanding digital ad budget share capture, the firm adds.

• HOOD Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Robinhood to $120 from $125 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is updating its estimates for exchange volume and retail DART releases after its recent initiation, as well as finalized estimates for quarter-end AUM levels and other retail trading metrics.
• CBOE Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Cboe Global Markets to $309 from $301 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is updating its estimates for exchange volume and retail DART releases after its recent initiation, as well as finalized estimates for quarter-end AUM levels and other retail trading metrics.
• CME Wells Fargo analyst Daniel Welden raised the firm's price target on CME Group to $315 from $301 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is updating its estimates for exchange volume and retail DART releases after its recent initiation, as well as finalized estimates for quarter-end AUM levels and other retail trading metrics.
• ICE Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on IntercontinentalExchange to $160 from $159 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm is updating its estimates for exchange volume and retail DART releases after its recent initiation, as well as finalized estimates for quarter-end AUM levels and other retail trading metrics.
• TW Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Tradeweb Markets to $125 from $118 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is updating its estimates for exchange volume and retail DART releases after its recent initiation, as well as finalized estimates for quarter-end AUM levels and other retail trading metrics.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: None

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for September

• Earnings After the Close: AZZ

• Paris Auto show, 10/12-10/18
• SEMICON West, 10/13-10/14, in San Francisco, CA
• China Imports/Exports/Trade Balance for September
• China PPI, CPI data for September

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for September

• Earnings After the Close: EDUC EQBK HOMB

• Paris Auto show, 10/12-10/18
• SEMICON West, 10/13-10/14, in San Francisco, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Empire Manufacturing for October
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for October
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales – Less Autos for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business Inventories M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET EIA Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AA IBKR INDB JBHT SFNC WAFD WSE

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