Early Look

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

U.S. stock futures are little changed after falling on Monday as U.S. stocks have remained range bound for the most part, failing to rise to new highs as Treasury yields and oil/diesel prices have risen, but fail to meaningfully fall, as @Bluekurtic noted on X, “42 days would make it the longest streak without a 1%+ down day for the S&P 500 since 2025. Fun fact: 2018 had the longest such streak since 1970.” U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite bottoming the pack as investors assessed market valuations and awaited fresh economic data. This morning we get housing data, consumer confidence and monthly JOLTs job data. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -396 points to 65,481, the Shanghai Index rose 6 points to 3,830, and the Hang Seng Index declined -118 points to 24,523. China stocks closed slightly up on Tuesday, after the country's cabinet pledged to step up counter-cyclical policy support to address rising economic strains. In Europe, the German DAX is up 128 points to 25,502, while the FTSE 100 rises 34 points to 10,719. Gold prices edge up from 7-week lows and oil prices take a breather. In tech news, Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, and plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming years, according to its IPO prospectus.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -346.90 points, or 0.67%, to 51,481.72
• The Nasdaq Composite slumped -248.34 points, or 0.92%, to 26,820.38
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -19.64 points, or 0.69% to 2,817.91

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Prices M/M for July
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20 city index M/M for July…est.+0.2%
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for September…est. 89.2
• 10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job openings for August…est. 7.225M (prior 7.271M)
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Services Index for September
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AIR CNXC

• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/28-9/30, in Scottsdale, AZ
• G2E Global Gaming Expo Meetings, 9/29-10/1, in Las Vegas
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Communications Infrastructure Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago
• William Blair Biotech Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago, IL
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for September

• Lindt & Spruengli (CHLSY) cut its 2026 sales forecast for the second time this year saying Europeans bought less chocolate as temperatures broke records across the continent; now expects organic sales growth of 0% to 2% in 2026, down from its earlier 4% to 6% range.
• PepsiCo (PEP) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan saying tracked channel and recent price increase announcements indicate PepsiCo's trends in North America have likely continued to underperform management expectations
• Vail Resorts (MTN) Q4 EPS ($5.27) vs. est. ($5.35); revenue $278.1Mm vs. est. $269.3Mm; resort EBITDA loss ($122.4Mm) vs est ($128.68Mm); FY net Income guidance $158Mm-$233Mm; FY resort EBITDA guidance $805Mm-$865Mm vs est $834.15Mm.
• Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH) Board increase share repurchase authorization by $400M.

• Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) is working with Midstream and downstream Partners to ease third-party crude sales constraints that emerged in late August and September 2026. October 2026 nominations to its crude purchaser are expected to average 38K gross barrels of oil per day. The estimated exit rate is 45K gross barrels of oil per day before any added volumes from Hondo.
• Shell (SHEL) said it would double production capacity at its LNG Canada facility as part of a bet on growing gas demand in Asia.
• Tronox Holdings (TROX) announced the signing of a cooperation and investment agreement with JX Advanced Metals Corporation (JXAMY) to advance the development of its rare earth and critical minerals business to support growing demand for these minerals.
• Westlake (WLK) said to optimize European chlorovinyls footprint with closure of cologne PVC plant; to close cologne PVC plant in Germany; expects total pre-tax charges of $205M for cologne closure; says $110M of charges expected to be recorded in 2026, remainder in 2027.

• Goldman’s Sachs (GS) Board has discussed a plan to name John Waldron as its next CEO, the WSJ reported. Under the plan, David Solomon, who has led the bank since 2018, would step down as soon as next year and be executive chair.
• Jefferies (JEF) Q3 EPS $1.08 vs. est. $1.00; net revenue $2.22B vs. est. $2.08B; investment Banking net revenue $1.33B; asset-management fees and investment-return revenue $34Mm vs. $84Mm, reflecting weaker performance across several fund strategies; book value per share $46.55; quarterly dividend $0.40.

• The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced savings for millions of Medicare beneficiaries in 2027, with weighted average MA premiums projected to fall more than 16% from 2026 to 2027, and average prescription drug premiums in Medicare Advantage projected to plummet 38%. Additionally, average premium for stand-alone Part D prescription drug plans is projected to rise by less than $1 per month in 2027. Despite speculation and misleading reports related to the appropriate sunsetting of the Part D Stabilization Demonstration Project.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) said a real-world study found that adults with type 2 diabetes who escalated their dose of diabetes drug Ozempic to 2 milligrams (mg) from 1 mg had a lower risk of major cardiovascular events compared to those who switched to Eli Lilly's (LLY) Mounjaro.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) has signed a licensing deal for a weight-loss treatment being developed by Hengrui Pharma that could be worth up to $2.6 billion. NVO will pay China-based Hengrui $300 million upfront, with the rest of the potential deal value tied to milestones. Novo will obtain exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize HRS-1596 globally, excluding mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
• Staar Surgical (STAA) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel saying after several years of strong post-COVID growth, the China refractive market experienced a weak 2024 before regaining momentum in 2025, with aggregate refractive revenue growth across the publicly traded ophthalmology operators reaccelerating from only 1% y/y in 2024 to 9% in 2025.
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) shares rise 20% pre mkt after AstraZeneca (AZN) will make a $2B equity investment in Summit through convertible preferred shares; says investment is convertible into common stock at $18.36 per share, representing a premium to the day's closing price. SMMT and AZN entered into a clinical collaboration to evaluate ivonescimab in combination with AstraZeneca's sonesitatug vedotin in gastrointestinal cancers.

• Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows sweeping Ai Vision, surging costs; Anthropic IPO could value the company at more than $2 trillion; Anthropic lost $42B in 2025; Ai lab spent $7.33B on compute and infrastructure last year; operating loss widened to $8.06B in 2025 from $2.98B in 2024.
• Gen Digital (GEN) raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to 9%-11% revenue growth, targeting mid- to high-teens non-GAAP EPS growth; says Q2 tracking to higher end of guidance and the full-year outlook, are tracking toward the high end of guidance.
• IDT Corp. (IDT) Q4 adj. EPS $0.94 vs est $0.98; revenue $339Mm vs est $319Mm, +7% YoY; adj. EBITDA $41.2Mm vs est $37.3Mm; FY revenue $1.30B vs. est. $1.28B; FY adj. EBITDA $155Mm; FY adj. EPS $3.82 vs. est. $3.85; guides FY adj EBITDA $176-180Mm vs est $149Mm.
• Meta Platforms (META) is expanding its AI agent Muse to small businesses, adding integrations with tools such as Shopify, QuickBooks, Stripe and Canva to help owners run their businesses and find new customers, as the Facebook-parent aims to diversify its revenue beyond advertising.
• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) announced it has been awarded the ALATTIS program to develop next-generation 10 kV silicon carbide power semiconductor technology; has been selected by the U.S. Army to develop next-gen 10 kV silicon carbide power semiconductors for mission-critical military systems.
• Netflix (NFLX) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank while trims tgt to $95 from $100 saying the market's obsession over U.S. time spent on Netflix overlooks the company's larger total addressable market and healthier international engagement trends. Netflix's international time spent has increased year-over-year in each of the past four six-month periods.

Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

U.S. stocks were mostly flattish overnight in futures trading, but are now down slightly to start the day, extending prior day losses as Treasury yields remain higher. The Treasury 30-year yield rises to 5.59%, new high since 2004, and the benchmark 10-yr yield at 5.25%, raising inflation fears and concerns of future rate hikes by the Fed. Oil prices are pulling back slightly today, but higher energy prices/diesel remain a real headwind for consumers and the economy with no apparent end in sight for the U.S. and Iran war. Market breadth has been weak with significantly higher 52-week lows vs. 52-week highs in recent weeks as investors pullback on some year to date winners. Gold prices bounce off 7-week lows around the $4,200 level and crypto assets also bouncing. Media reports of the details about Anthropic's public offering bolstered sentiment towards technology stocks, while Axios reports OpenAI's annual recurring revenue nears $70B as AI sector remains a key for Wall Street. Sept Consumer Confidence index tumbles to 81.9 (below consensus 89.2), its lowest level since 2014.

• Sept Consumer Confidence index 81.9 (consensus 89.2) vs Aug revised 88.6 (previous 89.4). The Present Situation Index fell by 7.9 points to 109.3; Expectations Index fell by 5.9 points to 63.6.
• S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for 20 cities rose 0.3% M/M in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, exceeding the +0.2% consensus and holding steady with the 0.3% M/M growth in June, according to data released on Tuesday. Note that June's increase was revised from the initial print of revised +0.2%. The 20-city composite, unadjusted, climbed 2.5% Y/Y, surpassing the +2.1% consensus and heating up from +2.2% Y/Y growth in June (revised from +2.1%).

• Food & Beverage sector: Lindt & Spruengli (CHLSY) cut its 2026 sales forecast for the second time this year saying Europeans bought less chocolate as temperatures broke records across the continent; now expects organic sales growth of 0% to 2% in 2026, down from its earlier 4% to 6% range. PEP was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan saying tracked channel and recent price increase announcements indicate PepsiCo's trends in North America have likely continued to underperform management expectations.
• AI Sector: Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows it could value the company at more than $2 trillion; Anthropic lost $42B in 2025; Ai lab spent $7.33B on compute and infrastructure last year; operating loss widened to $8.06B in 2025 from $2.98B in 2024. META is expanding its AI agent Muse to small businesses, adding integrations with tools such as Shopify, QuickBooks, Stripe and Canva to help owners run their businesses and find new customers, as the Facebook-parent aims to diversify its revenue beyond advertising.

• GLW +4%; as AT and GLW sign multiyear fiber agreement worth more than $3B; Corning will supply fiber and cable products for AT&T’s U.S. network expansion. Agreement supports AT&T’s goal of reaching 60M Americans with high-speed internet by the end of 2030
• IOVA +24%; raised full-year 2026 total revenue guidance to $410M-$420M from prior $350M-$370M view; midpoint increase is $55M, about 15%, implying nearly 60% annual growth in total revenue saying outlook reflects strong U.S. demand for Amtagvi and Proleukin.
• KMX +8%; shares rallied on results as Q2 EPS $1.16 tops consensus $0.75; Q2 revs $7.9B vs. est. $7.03B; Retail used unit sales increased 13.8% and comparable store used unit sales increased 13.0%; Q2 Wholesale units increased 15.9%.
• NFLX +2%; was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank while trims tgt to $95 from $100 saying the market's obsession over U.S. time spent on Netflix overlooks the company's larger total addressable market and healthier international engagement trends.
• PWP +11%; after the WSJ reported Piper Sandler (PIPR) has been in talks to combine with advisory firm Perella Weinberg Partners. https://tinyurl.com/5ab942hz
• SMMT +6%; after announced agreements with AZN for a $2B strategic equity investment in SMMT, and clinical collaborations to evaluate ivonescimab (ivo; PD-1xVEGF bispecific) and CLDN18.2-targeting antibody drug conjugate sonesitatug vedotin (sone-ve) in gastrointestinal cancers, alongside additional ivo combination trials with AZN medicines, including ADCs.
• SSTI +52%; to be acquired by Transom Capital Group under which Transom will acquire the company through a tender offer for $8.00 per share in cash, and one non-transferable CVR worth up to $3.00 per share, for aggregate potential consideration of up to $11.00 per share in cash.
• STAA +8%; was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel saying sees a path to 2H26 sales upside, aided by both China (EVO+ mix shift-driven) and ex-China (easing comps). 2027 Upside: Mix shift toward the higher-ASP EVO+ can be a meaningful source of 2027 China revenue growth—when coupled with the lapping of Middle East headwinds, 2027 revenue upside also appears likely

• MDB -2%; adds to prior day declines after CEO CJ Desai stepped down, to pursue a senior role at Meta Platforms. MongoDB has begun a search for a permanent CEO.
• NEOG -5%; after FDA warns Neogen over contaminated “sterile” vet product tied to record horse deaths; cites insanitary manufacturing, quality-oversight failures.
• QURE -36%; shares tumbled after the company provided an update on its ongoing Phase I/II study of AMT-130 in Huntington’s Disease, disclosing 12 patients who got high doses of AMT-130 had declined at a 44% slower rate after four years compared with an external control group using a common Huntington’s disease rating scale vs. 75% difference after three years.

Closing Recap

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

U.S. stocks did a whole lot of nothing on Tuesday, pulling back slightly but holding in a tight trading range for a second straight day as Wall Street awaits key inflation (PCE) and GDP data on Wednesday morning while dealing with persistently high energy prices and Treasury yields as the worry over stubbornly high inflation continues to plague investors. Oil prices took a break today, sliding amid a tapping of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) along with hopes of an easing of tensions between the U.S and Tehran. Treasury yields did not take a break, with the 5, 10 and 30 yr yields all holding around two decade highs, as fears of rising interest rates grow. The AI sector was in focus today (again) as OpenAI held its Dev day with plenty of headlines about valuations, products and revenues. US President Trump also said his meeting on Tuesday with AI leaders was very good and "very productive, extremely friendly." He also said the companies would "work with local communities for the data centers in particular, and they're going to work to make the community happy." Stocks pared losses late day after New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the central bank could wait until December before raising interest rates again, pushing back against market bets on a follow-up increase next month. In data today, U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest in over 12 years. With one day left in the month, Financials (XLF) REITs (XLRE), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Materials (XLB) the biggest drags in September each down over -6% while Technology (XLK) +4.4% this month the lone positive sector while Healthcare (XLV) is flat.  

• Sept Consumer Confidence index 81.9 (consensus 89.2) vs Aug revised 88.6 (previous 89.4). The Present Situation Index fell by 7.9 points to 109.3; Expectations Index fell by 5.9 points to 63.6.
• S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for 20 cities rose 0.3% M/M in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, exceeding the +0.2% consensus and holding steady with the 0.3% M/M growth in June, according to data released on Tuesday. Note that June's increase was revised from the initial print of revised +0.2%. The 20-city composite, unadjusted, climbed 2.5% Y/Y, surpassing the +2.1% consensus and heating up from +2.2% Y/Y growth in June (revised from +2.1%).

• Cruise & Leisure sector: cruise line CCL shares rallied on results as Q3 revs $8.44B topped the $8.3B consensus and said expects full year operational improvement of over $150M in adj net Income compared to June guidance. In ski resorts, MTN Q4 EPS ($5.27) vs. est. ($5.35); revenue $278.1Mm vs. est. $269.3Mm; resort EBITDA loss ($122.4Mm) vs est ($128.68Mm). in Casino/online betting sector, shares of DKNG fell over -7% below $20 to lowest levels since April 2023 and FLUT making new multi-year lows.
• Auto sector: in auto retail, KMX shares rallied on results as Q2 EPS $1.16 tops consensus $0.75; Q2 revs $7.9B vs. est. $7.03B; Retail used unit sales increased 13.8% and comparable store used unit sales increased 13.0%; Q2 Wholesale units increased 15.9%.

• Aerospace sector: AIR reported Q1 EPS of $1.49 vs. Street's $1.29 and revs of $918M tops the Street's $881M, driven by broad-based growth across Parts Supply, Government Solutions, Legacy Commercial Programs, and RE&S.
• Defense sector: VOYG announced a strategic partnership with Anduril Industries to accelerate the development, testing, and production of technologies for advanced U.S. weapons systems and missile defense. LHX said that it received a contract valued at more than $6B over seven years from LMT, to expand propulsion production for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system.
• Chemical sector: WLK shares slid after announces closure of its PVC plant in Cologne, Germany due to weak demand, high energy costs and increased import pressure from Asia; TROX shares bounced after announced the signing of a cooperation and investment agreement with JX Advanced Metals Corporation (JXAMY) to advance the development of its rare earth and critical minerals business to support growing demand for these minerals.

• Brokers & Banks sector: GS Board has discussed a plan to name John Waldron as its next CEO, the WSJ reported. Under the plan, David Solomon, who has led the bank since 2018, would step down as soon as next year and be executive chair. JEF Q3 EPS $1.08 vs. est. $1.00; net revenue $2.22B vs. est. $2.08B; investment Banking net revenue $1.33B; asset-management fees and investment-return revenue $34Mm vs. $84Mm, reflecting weaker performance across several fund strategies; HOOD September metrics were ahead of expectations, driven by stronger crypto and prediction-market activity and a steeper rates curve. PIPR and PWP shares active after the WSJ reported Piper Sandler has been in talks to combine with advisory firm Perella Weinberg Partners. https://tinyurl.com/5ab942hz

• IOVA raised full-year 2026 total revenue guidance to $410M-$420M from prior $350M-$370M view; midpoint increase is $55M, about 15%, implying nearly 60% annual growth in total revenue saying outlook reflects strong U.S. demand for Amtagvi and Proleukin; Authorized treatment center network expanded to about 100 Centers, targeting at least 110 by year-end 2026.
• NVO said a real-world study found that adults with type 2 diabetes who escalated their dose of diabetes drug Ozempic to 2 milligrams (mg) from 1 mg had a lower risk of major cardiovascular events compared to those who switched to LLY’s Mounjaro. Separately, Novo signed a licensing deal for a weight-loss treatment being developed by Hengrui Pharma that could be worth up to $2.6 billion. NVO will pay China-based Hengrui $300 million upfront, with the rest in milestones.
• QURE shares tumbled after the company provided an update on its ongoing Phase I/II study of AMT-130 in Huntington’s Disease, disclosing 12 patients who got high doses of AMT-130 had declined at a 44% slower rate after four years compared with an external control group using a common Huntington’s disease rating scale vs. 75% difference after three years.
• SMMT said AZN will make a $2B equity investment in Summit through convertible preferred shares; says investment is convertible into common stock at $18.36, representing a premium to the day's closing price. SMMT and AZN entered into a clinical collaboration to evaluate ivonescimab in combination with AstraZeneca's sonesitatug vedotin in gastrointestinal cancers.
• VOR said that more than 94% of patients treated with its experimental drug, Telitacicept, showed at least a five-point improvement on a measure of symptoms in patients with generalized myasthenia gravis after 48 weeks in a late-stage study

• Medical Equipment: STAA was upgraded to Buy at Stifel saying sees a path to 2H26 sales upside, aided by both China (EVO+ mix shift-driven) and ex-China (easing comps). 2027 Upside: Mix shift toward the higher-ASP EVO+ can be a meaningful source of 2027 China revenue growth—when coupled with the lapping of Middle East headwinds, 2027 revenue upside also appears likely.
• Managed Care: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced savings for millions of Medicare beneficiaries in 2027, with weighted average MA premiums projected to fall more than 16% from 2026 to 2027, and average prescription drug premiums in Medicare Advantage projected to plummet 38%. Additionally, average premium for stand-alone Part D prescription drug plans is projected to rise by less than $1 per month in 2027.

• Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows it could value the company at more than $2 trillion; Anthropic lost $42B in 2025; Ai lab spent $7.33B on compute and infrastructure last year; operating loss widened to $8.06B in 2025 from $2.98B in 2024.
• META is expanding its AI agent Muse to small businesses, adding integrations with tools such as Shopify, QuickBooks, Stripe and Canva to help owners run their businesses and find new customers, as the Facebook-parent aims to diversify its revenue beyond advertising.
• OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate is approaching $70B, up more than 70% since the start of Q3, according to Axios. Enterprise revenue has more than doubled since July, as OpenAI gains ground in business Ai adoption. Consumer growth is also accelerating, with OpenAI reportedly adding more revenue in Q3 alone than during all of 2025 (shares of ORCL and CRWV jumped on the ARR rev numbers).
• After having pushed back its plans for an initial public offering, OpenAI aims to raise at least $30B from investors in a new round of funding in which it is seeking a valuation of around $1.4T, not including the money raised, Bloomberg reported.
• Semiconductors: AMD said that it had entered an agreement to acquire Fei-Fei Li's World Labs startup in a deal valued at $8.2 billion. San Francisco-based World Labs, which raised $1 billion in a funding round earlier this year, develops spatial-intelligence models. NVTS announced it has been awarded the Army ALATTIS program to develop next-generation 10 kV silicon carbide power semiconductor technology. NLST said that it has filed a new complaint at a U.S. trade tribunal seeking to block imports of MU memory chips used in GOOGL, NVDA and AVGO products for AI computing.
• Media sector: NFLX was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank while trims tgt to $95 from $100 saying the market's obsession over U.S. time spent on Netflix overlooks the company's larger total addressable market and healthier international engagement trends. Netflix's international time spent has increased year-over-year in each of the past four six-month periods.
• Telecom Sector: AT and GLW sign multiyear fiber agreement worth more than $3B; Corning will supply fiber and cable products for AT&T’s U.S. network expansion. Agreement supports AT&T’s goal of reaching 60M Americans with high-speed internet by the end of 2030.
• Software sector: SSTI to be acquired by Transom Capital Group under which Transom will acquire the company through a tender offer for $8.00 per share in cash, and one non-transferable CVR worth up to $3.00 per share, for aggregate potential consideration of up to $11.00 per share in cash. MDB adds to prior day declines after CEO CJ Desai stepped down, to pursue a senior role at Meta Platforms. MongoDB has begun a search for a permanent CEO.

Street Recommendations

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

• TMUS Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar lowered the firm's price target on T-Mobile to $200 from $215 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the cable and telecom services group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Upside from earnings "is likely incremental, while downside from still emergent disruptive narratives could be more significant," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• EXPD Barclays raised the firm's price target on Expeditors to $165 from $160 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the transportation group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Freight volumes are being supported by strong consumer and industrial demand, creating an improving transport earnings outlook despite some near-term fuel headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HUBG Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski lowered the firm's price target on Hub Group to $30 from $48 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the transportation group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Freight volumes are being supported by strong consumer and industrial demand, creating an improving transport earnings outlook despite some near-term fuel headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MTN Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Vail Resorts to $117 from $119 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares as part of a fiscal Q4 earnings preview. The firm says lower pass sales and higher costs in fiscal 2027 create higher than usual guidance risk. This is on top of Vail's longer term valuation risk as its mix shifts away from pre-commitment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ZS Barclays analyst Saket Kalia raised the firm's price target on Zscaler to $220 from $200 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the October 6 investor day. Barclays expects Zscaler reiterate its fiscal 2027 outlook, take its long-term margin target up to 25%-30%, and talk about its aspiration toward $10B in annual recurring revenue.

• ORLY Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma initiated coverage of O'Reilly Automotive with a Market Perform rating and $94 price target. The firm believes winning in the auto parts aftermarket space means winning the do-it-for-me customers. The "fragmented landscape" creates a long runway for share gains and consolidation, particularly within the DIFM channel, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Bernstein views O'Reilly as "high quality compounder" but prefers shares of AutoZone given the latter's higher do-it-for-me growth.

• DTE BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on DTE Energy to $132 from $143 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company's 2026 Integrated Resource Plan - IRP - reinforces a robust and largely owned investment runway through its 2032 exit of coal-fired generation, while lowering NPV revenue requirements by about $3.5Bn vs. the 2022 IRP, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BMO adds that it continues to view local opposition to large load development as the largest impediment to investment opportunities above the current plan.
• JEF BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Jefferies Financial to $50 from $57 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company's Q3 earnings beat was mainly driven by Equities and Other Investment Banking, though its asset management revenues were light, driven by lower investment return, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BMO adds that while Jefferies' long-term setup appears attractive, near-term visibility is low and expectations are high.

• PCTY BofA reinstated coverage of Paylocity with a Buy rating and $175 price target. The workforce management vendor has significantly broadened its portfolio, notes the analyst, who thinks the company stands to benefit from product investments and reaccelerating growth outside core payroll.
• FDMT BofA raised the firm's price target on 4D Molecular to $33 from $29 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported two-year data from the SPECTRA trial evaluating 4D-150 in DME and announced the initiation of the Phase 3 4SIGHT trial in DME. 2027 will be a pivotal year for the company with the phase 3 4FRONT-1 and 4FRONT-2 readouts in wAMD, the analyst tells investors.
• ABBV BofA analyst Tim Anderson raised the firm's price target on AbbVie to $289 from $282 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company is well positioned for its next decade of growth as a "favorable" loss of exclusivity profile provides flexibility to invest in potentially transformative programs across immunology, ADCs, and neuroscience and recent M&A has strengthened the late-stage pipeline, the analyst tells investors.
• JNJ BofA raised the firm's price target on Johnson & Johnson to $278 from $263 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Following a physician dermatology survey, the firm raised its peak psoriasis sales forecast for Icotyde to $4.5B on 18% share, up from $2.4B on 10% share previously.

• MIRM Citi raised the firm's price target on Mirum Pharmaceuticals to $160 from $145 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the positive Phase 3 readout for brelovitug in hepatitis delta virus and FDA approval of Atebrioz for the target boost.
• ZYME Citi raised the firm's price target on Zymeworks to $39 from $38 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the close of the Theravance deal adds financial visibility for Zymeworks. The company also offered commentary that Yupelri remains underpenetrated across both the hospital and community channels, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ENPH Citi lowered the firm's price target on Enphase Energy to $37 from $40 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after catching up with management. The firm reduced its fiscal Q1 revenue estimates for Enphase citing seasonality.
• VIPS Citi lowered the firm's price target on Vipshop to $13 from $15.30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The firm sees the results hitting the low-end of guidance given the warm weather in September. Citi believes Vipshop's demand trends in September are likely to be softer than in August.

• TRU Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on TransUnion to $77 from $89 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
• JEF Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro lowered the firm's price target on Jefferies Financial to $57 from $67 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm expects a slightly constructive response to results, as the company delivered record Advisory revenue, as well as healthy equity trading and other investment banking revenue beats, but believes that the market discounts the multiples assigned to these businesses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ADPT Goldman Sachs analyst Evie Koslosky initiated coverage of Adaptive Biotechnologies with a Buy rating and $35 price target. The company has established itself as "the leader" in next-generation sequencing minimal residual disease testing with significant room for further market penetration and addressable market expansion, the analyst tells investors. The firm, which estimates the company has only penetrated about 13% of the potential patient population, sees significant room for additional market penetration.
• EFX Goldman Sachs analyst George Tong lowered the firm's price target on Equifax to $171 from $199 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
• FICO Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on FICO to $1,322 from $1,548 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

• ABCL JPMorgan analyst Brian Cheng initiated coverage of AbCellera with an Overweight rating and $17 price target. The firm believes the stock "stands at a major value inflection point" following the data for AbCellera's lead NK3R antagonist internal program for menopausal hot flashes. The company's "extensive" network of pharma and biotech partnerships validate its underlying technology platform while helping offset part of the expense, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes ABCL635's profile is "highly differentiating in multiple folds from the point of efficacy, safety and dosing convenience."
• MNDY JPMorgan downgraded Monday.com to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $87, down from $90. The company's decline in net new annual recurring revenue highlight its funnel creation and growth challenges, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan expects a continuation of Monday.com's net new ARR growth challenges. The stock's "inexpensive valuation multiples" are unlikely to drive investor interest until there is a change in Monday.com's down-market momentum, contends the firm.
• MU JPMorgan keeps an Overweight rating on Micron with a $1,540 price target ahead of the fiscal Q4 report on September 30. The firm sees a "constructive" setup for the shares "with multiple beat-and-raise levers still in play" for Micron. The company faces a memory backdrop that remains structurally tight across both DRAM and NAND, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan thinks Micron is well positioned to deliver Q4 revenue, gross margin, and earnings ahead of consensus estimates. The company's pricing momentum through the quarter remained robust despite management's prior commentary on a "meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases," says the firm.
• MTN JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Vail Resorts to $150 from $126 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the fiscal Q4 earnings report. The firm views Vail's fiscal 2027 outlook as mixed.

• CHWY Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Chewy to $28 from $32 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the retail space after attending RetailClub's AI conference. Optimism around agentic AI continues to build, the analyst tells investors in a research note. "We're only getting an early taste of how shopping habits may be altered going forward," Mizuho. The firm views disintermediation risk as low for Walmart, Wayfair, and Chewy.
• WMT Mizuho analyst David Bellinger lowered the firm's price target on Walmart to $125 from $130 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the retail space after attending RetailClub's AI conference. Optimism around agentic AI continues to build, the analyst tells investors in a research note. "We're only getting an early taste of how shopping habits may be altered going forward," Mizuho. The firm views disintermediation risk as low for Walmart, Wayfair, and Chewy.
• W Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Wayfair to $110 from $90 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the retail space after attending RetailClub's AI conference. Optimism around agentic AI continues to build, the analyst tells investors in a research note. "We're only getting an early taste of how shopping habits may be altered going forward," Mizuho. The firm views disintermediation risk as low for Walmart, Wayfair, and Chewy.
• MTN Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Vail Resorts to $156 from $160 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company issued "better than feared" guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm believes Vail still has much to prove. The outlook rests on the company's ability to convert single day guests who did not buy a pass, contends Mizuho. It cites valuation for the buy rating on the shares.

• NKE RBC Capital analyst Piral Dadhania lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $40 from $45 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares ahead of its Q1 results this week. The prospect of a miss on the current quarter is fairly low, but the focus will be on the forward-looking guide, which currently is one quarter at a time, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With a new CFO David Denton and an upcoming Capital Markets Day in November, the prospect of an earnings rebase is real, the firm added. RBC further states that the recent channel checks point to a continuation of trends with soft sell-through rates, although there may be some gross margin improvement.

• AESI Scotiabank initiated coverage of Atlas Energy with an Outperform rating and $14 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• LBRT Scotiabank initiated coverage of Liberty Energy with a Sector Perform rating and $19 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• NI Scotiabank analyst Ian Rapp initiated coverage of NiSource with a Sector Perform rating and $43 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• OGE Scotiabank initiated coverage of OGE Energy with an Outperform rating and $49 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• OGS Scotiabank initiated coverage of One Gas with an Outperform rating and $86 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• PNW Scotiabank analyst Ian Rapp initiated coverage of Pinnacle West with an Outperform rating and $104 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• PPL Scotiabank initiated coverage of PPL Corp. with an Outperform rating and $36 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• PUMP Scotiabank analyst Ian Rapp initiated coverage of ProPetro Holding with a Sector Perform rating and $12 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• SR Scotiabank initiated coverage of Spire with a Sector Perform rating and $79 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• SRE Scotiabank initiated coverage of Sempra Energy with a Sector Perform rating and $83 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• SWX Scotiabank initiated coverage of Southwest Gas with an Outperform rating and $95 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• UGI Scotiabank initiated coverage of UGI Corporation with an Outperform rating and $46 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.
• XEL Scotiabank analyst Ian Rapp initiated coverage of Xcel Energy with an Outperform rating and $77 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of 14 names in the gas and electric utilities and power producers group. s. Scotiabank's top picks are OGE Energy for regulated electric utilities, UGI and Southwest Gas for pure-play regulated gas utilities, and Atlas Energy for behind-the-meter power development opportunities. Load growth is structurally moving higher, which should benefit the group across the board, "but benefits and risks vary, thus we try to structure a barbell approach to broader power demand," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the gas utility group, seeing an attractive valuation entry point.

• MTN Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Vail Resorts to $157 from $161 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported a slight fiscal Q4 beat despite unfavorable Australia conditions, largely on stronger lodging demand and cost management. The firm views the in-line FY27 guidance and pass sales update as "a relief given elevated uncertainty" and arguably more downside than upside risk coming off a historically challenging 2025/26 season in the Rockies, the analyst added.

• NBIX UBS lowered the firm's price target on Neurocrine to $214 from $231 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The 25% pullback since Q2 reflects concerns around Vykat safety findings and greater Crenessity competition, but the stock's 14% 2026-31E EPS CAGR create an attractive valuation setup and could position Neurocrine as a relatively defensive biotech growth name in a more risk-off market, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• KOD UBS analyst Michael Yee raised the firm's price target on Kodiak Sciences to $120 from $80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Kodiak's Zenkuda data materially strengthen the comeback thesis, with non-inferior efficacy, clean safety, and differentiated durability versus aflibercept supporting a Q4 BLA filing and potential YE27 launch, while tabirafusp's Phase 3 DME program offers additional upside through potential superiority and extended durability, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• FSK Wells Fargo analyst Finian O'Shea downgraded FS KKR Capital to Underweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $10. The company's valuation discount, "steep" write-downs and recently emphasized work on correcting it make the stock hard to predict into earnings, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells sees headwinds to FS KKR Capital's baseline return potential and a falling dividend as it executes on de-leveraging, legacy rotation, and seniorizing the investment portfolio.
• MAIN Wells Fargo analyst Finian O'Shea upgraded Main Street to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $60, up from $55. While the company's dividend coverage "remains tight," its earnings stream is "well grounded in the long run," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Into Q3 earnings, Wells sees Main Street as better positioned to navigate near-term headwinds relative to peers. It believes the company will likely widen its valuation premium to peers due to its stability in net asset value.
• TCPC Wells Fargo analyst Finian O'Shea upgraded BlackRock TCP Capital to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $4, up from $3.50. The company's recent asset sales and apparent repays have resulted in a "dramatic reduction of leverage," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells believes BlackRock TCP's recent launched strategic review is likely to bring an "improved outcome" in the near term.
• ROL Wells Fargo analyst Jason Haas lowered the firm's price target on Rollins to $27 from $32 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm is modeling organic growth and incremental margins slightly below Street in Q3 as it expects more of the reacceleration to come as Rollins laps easier compares in Q4.
• MTN Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Vail Resorts to $130 from $125 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company delivered a disappointing update as pass sales showed no sequential improvement and introduced guidance that seems to add risk around improved lift ticket sales. There was no news on activist engagement. Caution seems fair, but sentiment is poor, Wells adds.
• FWONK Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall lowered the firm's price target on Liberty Formula One to $96 from $105 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm modestly lowers its estimates and target to reflect the uncertainty of persistent Middle East disruption. Wells sees F1 as a high-quality business, but this overhang underpins its Equal Weight rating.
• MUR Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Murphy Oil to $43 from $42 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm believes the company's CDI drillship tender is positive early sign for Bubale West-1X. While not included in Wells' price target, the firm estimates CDI could be worth about $2/share at the low end of the resource range. Wells remains on the sidelines as its 2027 capital expenditure estimate of $1.8B remains above consensus at $1.5B.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: IDT IVA JEF MTN TRAK

• Bank America Future Car Conference 2026, 9/28
• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/28-9/30, in Scottsdale, AZ

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Prices M/M for July
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20 city index M/M for July
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for September
• 10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job openings for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Services Index for September
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AIR CNXC

• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/28-9/30, in Scottsdale, AZ
• G2E Global Gaming Expo Meetings, 9/29-10/1, in Las Vegas
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Communications Infrastructure Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago
• William Blair Biotech Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago, IL
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for September

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Income M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q4-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP PCE Price Index M/M for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance goods Trade Balance for August
• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Dallas Fed PCE for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BSET MU PRGS

• G2E Global Gaming Expo Meetings, 9/29-10/1, in Las Vegas
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Communications Infrastructure Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago
• William Blair Biotech Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago, IL

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for August
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for September
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: NKE

• Monthly Auto sales data for September

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for August
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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