Closing Recap
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | 52.27 | 0.10% | 50,188 |
S&P 500 | -23.04 | 0.33% | 6,941 |
Nasdaq | -136.20 | 0.59% | 23,102 |
Russell 2000 | -9.28 | 0.34% | 2,679 |
U.S. stocks finished on the lows amid a late day slide, as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 finished in negative territory ahead of key economic data tomorrow, though the Dow Jones Industrials managed to close at a fresh all-time closing high. Market attention turns back to jobs on Wednesday as the delayed January nonfarm payroll report is tomorrow morning at 8:30 am et, with estimates calling for 70K added jobs for both nonfarm and private payrolls and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%. Today, U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December (below the est. for a +0.4% rise), putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year. Outside of the data, earnings remain in full swing with over 60% of the S&P 500 having reported thus far at an 80% beat rate (though guidance for many have been mixed). Market leaders today were Utilities (XLU, Materials (XLB), and REITs (XLRE), while Financials (XLF) and Technology (XLK), which had outperformed the last two days, were the biggest decliners. Stocks in Asia also extending gains as the Nikkei 225 hit a fresh peak in the wake of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's weekend election victory.
Financials were pressured on the day, led by banks, brokers, and full financial service companies were hit hard today (MS, SCHW, LPLA, RJF, SF, among many others), on two possible catalysts. 1) more Ai impact fears (which hit the insurance brokers group yesterday), this time hitting financial services on news Altruist has launched artificial Intelligence-powered tax planning within Hazel, its Ai platform, enabling Advisors to create personalized tax strategies; and 2) concerns about rising delinquencies as U.S. loan delinquencies rose to 4.8% of household debt in Q4, the highest since 2017, driven by low-income and young borrowers. Mortgage defaults surged in lower-income areas, while student-loan delinquencies hit 16.3%, a record. Credit-card and Auto loan delinquencies also climbed to 12.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Recall yesterday it was concern OpenAI has approved the first Ai app from an Insurance provider on ChatGPT, built by Tuio, one of Spain’s leading digital insurers that weighed heavily on insurance stocks/mortgage brokers.
Economic Data
- U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December, below consensus for +0.4% growth and follows an unrevised +0.6% increase in November, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. The savings rate fell to a three-year low of 3.5% in November from 3.7% in October. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services fell (-0.1%) in December after a downwardly revised +0.2% gain in November.
- U.S. Q4 wages/salaries +0.7% vs Q3 +0.8% (prev +0.8%); U.S. Q4 benefit costs +0.7% vs Q3 +0.8% (prev +0.8%); U.S. Q4 employment cost index +0.7% (consensus +0.8%) vs Q3 +0.8% (prev +0.8%).
- U.S. import prices were unchanged on a year-on-year basis in December after falling 0.1% in November, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Last year's shutdown of the federal government prevented the collection of survey data for October, resulting in the BLS not publishing the monthly changes in import prices for October and November. Import prices gained 0.1% month-on-month in December.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $191 billion, 1.0%, in Q4 2025, to $18.8 trillion. Aggregate delinquency worsened in Q4 2025, with 4.8% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Credit card balances rose by $44 billion and stood at $1.28 trillion. Auto loan balances increased by $12 billion to $1.67 trillion, after holding steady during the prior quarter. The student loan delinquency rate remains elevated at 9.6% of balances that are 90+ days delinquent.
- Foreigners plowed $99 billion into emerging market portfolios last month, setting a January record inflow as equities and debt attracted cash across all regions, data from a banking trade group showed Tuesday. At $98.9 billion in net inflows, it was the largest January haul on record and the largest overall since 2020 according to the Institute of International Finance. The $71.4 billion that went into debt securities is a record high, while the $27.4 billion allocated to equities ranked as the fifth largest on the IIF data going back to 2005.
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- April gold fell -$48.40 or 0.95% to settle at $5,031 an ounce and March silver prices fell -$1.85 or 2.24% to settle at $80.38 an ounce ahead of tomorrow’s January payrolls report.
- U.S. crude oil futures settle at $63.96/bbl, down 40 cents, 0.62%.
- Treasury yields were broadly lower following weaker retail sales data, boosting hopes for Fed rate cuts.
- The U.S. Treasury sold $58B 3-year notes at high yield 3.518% (vs. 3.519% when issued), with bid-to-cover ratio 2.62 as Primary dealers take 10.94% of U.S. 3-year notes sale, direct 31.92% and indirect 57.15%.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | -0.40 | 63.96 |
Brent | -0.04 | 69.08 |
Gold | -16.20 | 5,063.20 |
EUR/USD | -0.0011 | 1.1901 |
JPY/USD | -1.56 | 154.30 |
10-Year Note | -0.051 | 4.147% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- In Luxury Retail: Kering (PPRUY) reported a smaller-than-feared drop in Q4 sales, and its CEO pledged growth and wider margins in 2026. The CEO said, "with sales trends improving quarter after quarter, the momentum is real - early, fragile, but real. I guarantee you that we will build on it."
- Specialty Retail: toy maker HAS Q4 adj. EPS and sales topped Street expectations while also announced a new multi-year licensing partnership starting in 2027 with WBD Consumer Products, making Hasbro the global primary toy licensee for the world of Harry Potter and the upcoming HBO Original HARRY POTTER series.
- In Apparel Retail: UAA was downgraded to Sell at Citigroup saying while Q326 EPS beat consensus, there are several reasons for caution: 1) UAA plays in a highly competitive environment where stronger brands like Nike/On/Hoka will likely be prioritized by UAA's key retail Partners over UAA; 2) DTC traffic remains weak; and 3) UAA will likely need to invest more in marketing/brand building
- In Broadline/Hardline: TGT target announces executive leadership changes to accelerate growth, confirms Q4 financial guidance - said Rick Gomez, chief commercial officer, will leave the company and Jill Sando, chief merchandising officer overseeing apparel, home and other categories, will retire.
- In Food & Beverages: KO missed consensus expectations for Q4 revenue (+2% y/y to $11.82B vs. est. $12.03B), as demand for its sodas weakened in North America and Europe, though EPS of $0.58 was 2c better; Q4 organic sales rose 4.8%, slower than the 5% growth analysts had anticipated; said expects to deliver organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% in 2026, lower at the midpoint than the 5% growth Wall Street was looking for.
- In Restaurants: WING was downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen as now sees negative 0.5% same-store-sales growth for Wingstop in 2026, and Raymond James cut to Outperform from Strong Buy citing its cautious view on n-t trends.
Homebuilders, Building Products, Home Furnishing:
- RBC Capital out with January pricing data for homebuilders saying pricing trends overall remained weak in January as overall magnitude of change remained negative amid a weaker-than-normal seasonal uptick in price increases and inventory ticked higher (spec and specs/community +1% m/m), an uninspiring lead-in to a critical spring selling season esp. given investor hopes that rates (lower mid-month, though recently moved back higher) could provide support. Entry-level underperformed on both base and spec trends, consistent with what we’ve seen in earlier builder results though less sanguine than some builders’ hopes that pricing/incentives would stabilize or improve as the year progresses. KBH was notably negative after recent resilience. DHI was in-line on base and spec price trends. LEN saw in-line base but weaker spec (though did draw down spec inventory by 3.5% m/m). TMHC outperformed both base and spec with further inventory progress (-3% m/m). TOL base was positive though specs were weak and base increases were less broad than early increase attempts in prior years. PHM base pricing was slightly weaker, but specs beat.
Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:
- Leisure Products: HOG Q4 global retail motorcycle sales of 25,287 units, down 1% y/y; reported a wider Q4 loss, hurt by a pullback in consumer spending toward recreational vehicles; said Q4 HDMC global motorcycle shipments of 13,515, down 4% y/y; FY26 guided below with HDMC operating income +$40M to -$10M (Street $135M). PTON was downgraded to Hold at Argus saying fierce competition from both gyms and other in-home Fitness companies have led to fewer subscriptions since the end of the pandemic, a trend that Argus thinks is likely to continue.
- In Lodging/Travel: MAR reported Q4 earnings that missed expectations, after airport delays during last year’s US government shutdown put a damper on business travel; also expects 2026 RevPAR to grow 1.5% to 2.5%, below the average of analysts' estimates of a 2.3% rise; BKNG was upgraded to Buy at Gordon Haskett as believes investors have overreacted to AI-driven competitive encroachment concerns.
- Leisure Servies: EWCZ entered into a definitive agreement to be taken private by General Atlantic in an all-cash transaction with an implied equity value of approximately $330M; European Wax Center stockholders will receive $5.80 per share in cash for each share of European Wax Center Class A common stock they own.
- In Autos: Morgan Stanley said they remain overweight TSLA as they see upside citing plans to add 100 GW of solar manufacturing capacity. Tesla Solar could add $25-$50B ($6-$14/shr) of equity value to MSCO's Tesla Energy valuation, which it currently value at $140B ($40/shr, or 10% of its $415 PT). In tires, GT shares fell after Q4 adj EPS of $0.39, missed the $0.48 consensus though revs of 44.91B topped the $4.84B consensus.
- Casinos & Gaming: Needham noted this week’s OSB weekly data showed a significant +28% jump in weekly Kalshi volumes driven by the Super Bowl. For context, in NY last year OSB betting volumes grew +7% the week of the Super Bowl. Needham's "Other" category continues to drive the majority of growth in volumes for Kalshi, this is volume outside of NFL, NBA, NCAAF and NCAAB. Needham's view on the sports betting and prediction market space continues to be the best product should win out (watch shares of DKNG, FLUT, CZR, PENN).
Energy
- In Energy sector: BP reported earnings while also suspended its share buyback program and took about $4B of charges in its renewables and biogas assets sending shares lower; SHEL CEO said it does not have to buy additional assets anytime soon to deliver on its 2030 targets.
- In Utilities/Power: VST was upgraded Vistra to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and raised tgt to $203 from $191 as sees an improved risk/reward following the stock's recent selloff. Vistra is down 25% seance September despite announcing Texas data center contracts. DUK raised its five-year spending plan on power infrastructure to $103B, an 18% jump from the last iteration of what has become the largest capital expenditure plan for any U.S. regulated electric utility.
- U.S. power consumption, which hit its second straight record high in 2025, will rise further in 2026 and 2027, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA projected power demand will rise from a record 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,268 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,372 billion kWh in 2027.
Financials
- Financials such as banks/brokers, like SCHW, IBKRpulled back and advisors/full service tax planning companies like MS, LPLA, SF, EVR, RJF, and others came under pressure after news Altruist has launched artificial Intelligence-powered tax planning within Hazel, its Ai platform, enabling Advisors to create personalized tax strategies by analyzing clients’ 1040s, pay stubs, account statements and other financial documents. It seems after software was hit in recent weeks on Ai impact fears, that now the financial space the next being impacted by Ai fears.
- Recall yesterday the Insurance space, with insurance brokers specifically showing weakness recently (AJG, AON, BRO, GSHD, HIG, MRSH, RYAN, TRV, WTW), the group has fallen amid a Reinsurance News article reporting on a Spanish personal lines insurer application approved by OpenAI (private), enabling users to receive a personalized home Insurance quote, and soon, purchase a policy, entirely within the conversation. Cantor said the Brokers, which sold off the most, also offer very compelling entry points for the medium-/longer-term minded. BMO Capital noted part of the influence appears driven by continued Wave of Ai-related uncertainty regarding potential disintermediation of Insurance Brokers within the Insurance purchasing value chain. They note the selloff comes on top of previous >12pts selloff (relative to S&P 500) over past ~120 days, driven by separate concerns about the decelerating pace of organic growth exhibited.
- Consumer Finance: Share of credit card loans in serious delinquency rose to 12.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The only other times the share has been higher: all of 2010 and the beginning of 2011. Household debt rose $191 billion in Q4 to $18.8 trillion, w/ half the increase coming from mortgage balances rising $98 billion as the pace of mortgage originations increased again as interest rates fell in many markets. New all-time high for share of student loans transitioning to serious delinquency
- Other insurance news, CINF reported 4Q operating EPS of $3.37 vs. consensus of $2.90E ($3.14 YoY) as the beat was on better overall margins, with a consolidated combined ratio of 85.2% vs. our 87.0% estimate. ACGL operating EPS of $2.98 beat consensus of $2.59, driven by stronger favorable prior period reserve development ($118M vs. $62M est.; driven by the Mortgage and Reinsurance segments), a lower-than-projected expense ratio (27% vs. 28% est.)
- Employment Services: UPWK shares tumbled after reported Q4 results with GSV and revenue coming in ~1% above consensus and EBITDA exceeding expectations by ~2%, though Q126 revenue guidance was ~3% below consensus at the mid-point, sending shares lower.
REITs:
- BRX posted a 4Q beat, driven by a stronger than expected core that included higher term fee income, and management’s initial FY26 FFO guide is in line with consensus.
- KRC reported a 4Q25 FFO miss (-$0.02 vs. cons.), and management introduced its FY26 FFO guidance of $3.25-$3.45, which came in below consensus by -0.9%. During 4Q25, fundamentals were mixed as cash SSNOI decelerated (-7.2%) and cash rents fell (-27.1%), though leasing accelerated to 827ksf.
- UDR’s initial 2026 FFOA guidance missed consensus by 1.2% at the midpoint. The Company’s 4Q25 operating results reflect the combination of a soft demand backdrop and management’s operating strategy to sacrifice lease rate growth to grow occupancy.
- VNO FFO, as adjusted of $0.55 (-9.1% y/y) missed consensus by 1c. Leasing of 960k sq ft is further evidence that office demand remains strong in NYC.
Biotech & Pharma:
- INCY shares fall after guiding 2026 revenue between $4.77B-$4.94B, well below the $5.52B consensus after saying key growth driver Opzelura will underperform, raising concerns about ability to offset looming patent losses on top-seller Jakafi; also reported Q4 EPS miss ($1.80 vs. $1.93) and said product expenses grow faster than product revenue in Q4.
- NKTR said its experimental eczema drug, rezpegaldesleukin, helped patients with moderate-to-severe eczema maintain improvements for a year; says 71% and 83% of patients on the highest monthly and quarterly doses kept symptoms under control; up to 30% saw complete skin clearance.
- RGNX said the U.S. FDA has issued a Complete Response Letter regarding its Biologics License Application for RGX-121 for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis II, an ultra-rare neurodegenerative disease also known as Hunter syndrome; plans to resubmit BLA for RGX-121.
- TAK says FDA accepts new drug application and grants priority review for Takeda’s oveporexton (tak-861) as a potential first-in-class therapy for narcolepsy type 1; PDUFA target action date set for Q3.
- TECX shares tumble after AZN said it has discontinued AZD3427, its relaxin-based drug for a type of heart-related disease, citing efficacy concerns (note Tectonic is testing TX45, another relaxin-based therapy targeting similar heart conditions). Independent Data Monitoring Committee recently advised TX45's mid-stage study continue unchanged.
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- CVS reported a Q4 adjusted EPS $1.09, tops consensus $1.00 on revs rising 8.2% y/y to $105.69B vs. consensus $103.57B; but investors were disappointed as the company only reaffirms its EPS outlook despite the Q4 beat seeing range of $7.00-$7.20 vs. $7.17 consensus and cuts FY26 cash flow from operations view at least $9B from at least $10B.
- OSCR posted a Q4 miss, but shares jumped on upward guidance saying it sees FY26 revenue $18.7B-$19B (vs. consensus $12.8B); sees FY26 earnings from operations $250M-$450M.
- PSNL said Medicare will now cover its NeXT Personal test for monitoring early-stage non-small cell lung cancer, the most common form of the disease; says the test tracks tiny bits of circulating tumor DNA in blood that can indicate the presence of cancer; analyzes hundreds of tumor-specific mutations to guide ongoing care decisions.
- CRO stocks (ICLR, CRL, FTRE) declined after MEDP earnings, comments on cancellations.
Transports
- Transports: CSX announced a $670 million agreement with WAB to upgrade its locomotive fleet. The $670 million order includes 100 new Evolution series locomotives, 50 modernized locomotives, and a suite of digital solutions and services to support more efficient locomotive operations. Delivery of the 100 new Evolution series locomotives will begin in 2026, with deliveries of the 50 modernized locomotives to begin in 2027. ULCC was downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank following the recent surge in share price, I.E., up 35% year-to-date. SAIA Q4 revenue rose 0.1%, beating analyst expectations while Q4 operating income fell 36.9% yr/yr.
- In Industrials/Distributors: WCC shares fell after guiding 2026 adj EPS $14.50-$16.50 below the $16.37 consensus amid margin pressure and lingering weakness in its utility and broadband solutions segment; said CFO Dave Schulz will retire in May and will be succeeded by Indraneel Dev, who joins the company this month. XYL guided 2026 revenue to $9.1B-$9.2B, compared with analysts' estimates of $9.33B and annual EPS $5.35-$5.60, as the midpoint is below estimates of $5.56; did report Q4 EPS and revs above consensus but said sales from the water infrastructure unit was $691M, falling short of analysts' expectations of $745.45M.
- In Chemicals: DD posted a better-than-expected Q4 as beat on net sales, EBITDA, and adjusted EPS while its 2026 forecast was above the Street's expectations, as well. Adjusted EPS at $2.25 to $2.30 vs. the consensus of $2.14.
Aerospace & Defense
- EVTL announced that it struck a three-way deal with Saudi conglomerate AHQ Group and the government-backed National Industrial Development Centre to fast-track an Advanced Air Mobility ecosystem in Saudi Arabia.
- PLTR was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Daiwa after recent results noting the company's revenue jumped 70% year-over-year in Q4 and operating income rose about 2.1-fold and says Palantir's "robust showing" continued to be driven by the U.S. business.
- PSN has been awarded a $125M single-award Task Order contract over five years to support the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command - or DEVCOM.
Internet, Media & Telecom
- In Media & Telecom: CCO agreed to be acquired by Mubadala Capital in partnership with TWG Global for $6.2B in an all-cash transaction Under the agreement, shareholders will receive $2.43 per share in cash. SPOT shares rallied on a Q4 top and bottom line beat as premium revenue growth of 8% y/y driven by subscriber gains; while Q4 MAU net adds 751M, up 11%Y/Y vs. est. 738M; premium Subscribers grew 10%Y/Y to 290M; forecast operating income of 660M euros ($786.13M) in Q1 compared with analysts' average estimate of 652.3M euros. SIRI was upgraded to Neutral (from Underweight) at JP Morgan and raised its tgt to $24 from $20 following better-than expected Q4 results, encouraged by SIRI's improving subscriber trends, contributions from new products aimed at capturing broader demand, improving advertising trends and monetization, and progress toward deleveraging. PSKY boosted its $30 per share bid for WBD by offering extra cash and will also fund the $2.8B termination fee that Warner Bros owe NFLX if the deal falls through.
- In Internet: AAPL and GOOGL have agreed to make their mobile app stores fairer and more transparent for thousands of developers, Britain's antitrust regulator said on Tuesday. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) designated the two tech giants as having "strategic market status" in smartphones in October, giving it the power to demand specific changes to boost competition.
Hardware & Software movers:
- Software got a bounce for a third day (IGV), after starting the year down over -20% on AI impact concerns.
- Bloomberg reported Abu Dhabi’s MGX is in talks to invest hundreds of millions into Anthropic’s funding round, which is now expected to raise more than $20B at a reported $350B valuation.
- CRDO shares rise as sees prelim Q3 revs $404M-$408M above consensus of $342.3M and above prior view of $335M-$345M; expects sequential revenue growth in the mid-single digits leading to more than 200% year-over-year growth in the current fiscal year.
- DDOG shares rose as Q4 revs $953.2M topped consensus $916.6M on better earnings and guided Q1 revs $951M-$961M which was above consensus of $935.4M saying the rising AI adoption is driving demand for cloud security and monitoring tools; said nearly half of customers now use four or more Datadog products.
- GTM reported a Q4 beat with 340 bps of revenue out-performance relative to the mid-point of guidance; NRR was stable at 90% again Q/Q, which indicates trends in up market remained consistent, while down-market remains pressured; shares fell as Q1 rev $306–309M vs $309M, and FY26 points to only ~~1% rev growth, below expectations
- RNG will replace HI in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, February 12. Lone Star Funds is acquiring Hillenbrand in a deal expected to be completed soon, pending final closing conditions.
- Software gaming: Unity (U) was upgraded to Outperform from Perform with a $38 price target at Oppenheimer saying the recent sell-off, driven by fears that "world models" like Google's Project Genie will displace game engines, is fundamentally misplaced and ignores the distinct architectural role Unity plays in development. OPCO views the current valuation as disconnected from the company's improving fundamentals, specifically the successful Re-acceleration of the Grow segment via the Vector, and disciplined cost management. Raymond James upgraded TTWO as well to Strong Buy noting shares are down 15% since 1/29 on the back of Twin fears around the launch of Google's Project Genie and the presumed impact of Ai creation Tools to incumbent publishers, exacerbated by the broader sell-off in software on Ai replacement fears. The firm said this as overdone and are standing behind its prior view.
Semiconductors:
- AMKR reported a beat-and-raise quarter with most reported metrics above consensus estimates; guided FY26 CapEx to be $2.5B to $3B, a record level not seen in Amkor's history and well above the Street, and for FY26, expects Computing revenue to grow by 20%+, including 2.5D/HDFO (CoWoS-like) revenue tripling year-over-year.
- CSCO launched a new chip and router designed to speed info through massive data centers that will compete against offerings from AVGO and NVDA; Cisco said its Silicon One G300 switch chip, expected to go on sale in the second half of the year, will help the chips that train and deliver AI systems talk to each other over hundreds of thousands of links.
- ICHR shares rose as Q4 results and guidance for Q1 were slightly above initial and updated guidance and consensus estimates, with management constructive on 2026 and 2027 growth potential; reported revenue of $223.6MM, lower sequentially, with strong guidance issues for Q126 and 2026.
- MU defended at Deutsche Bank and raised its tgt to $500 as updated its DRAM demand-supply model, which specifically forecasts out supply fab-by-fab on a wafer starts per month basis (WSPM). The net result of this analysis suggests shortages should sustain through 2027 into 2028.
- ON posted Q4 results and Q1 guidance, which were slightly below expectations, as product exits of $40M and $50M across Q4/Q1 offset improving signs of a cyclical recovery; noted B2B is improving and is seeing requests for more expedites in the quarters/fewer turns but has yet to see signs of inventory replenishment.
- TSM January sales grew at their fastest clip in months; reported a 37% rise in January revenue to NT$401.3 billion ($12.7 billion), above the 30% revenue growth TSMC expects for the full year; plans mass-production of 3-nanometre advanced chips at its Kumamoto plant in Japan, investing about $17 billion, Japanese newspaper Yomiuri reported.