Early Look

Thursday, February 19, 2026

Following a second strong day of stock market returns, US futures are looking slightly lower in a bout of profit taking as earnings from one of the largest retailers in the world report this morning in Wal-Mart and global tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept markets on edge and supported oil prices and gold. Major U.S. averages finished higher for a second day this week on Wednesday, helped by gains in technology-related shares including Nvidia, while energy shares also climbed (industrials also a new record high), though FOMC Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed members were split over what might happen next. The minutes showed that Fed policymakers were in near-unanimous agreement to keep interest rates on hold at their meeting last month but remained split over the next steps. Several were open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, with others inclined to support further cuts if inflation recedes as they expect. Attention turns to retail this morning with earnings results from Wal-Mart (WMT) expected later this morning. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index jumped 323 points to 57,467, while both the Shanghai Index and the Hang Seng Index remained closed. In Europe, the German DAX is down -185 points to 25,093, while the FTSE 100 is down -78 points to 10,607. Positive this morning in industrials with Deere (DE) posting a beat and raised guidance. Overnight earnings winners include DASH, EBAY, FIG, LMND and among top losers CAR, CVNA and TAP.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 129.47 points, or 0.26%, to 49,662.66
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 175.25 points, or 0.78%, to 22,753.63
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 12.02 points, or 0.45% to 2,658.60

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.86M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Survey for February…est. 8.5 (prior 12.6)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance Goods Trade Balance for December…(-$86.0B)
• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for December…est. (-$55.5B)
• 10:00 AM ET                  Leading index Change M/M for December…est. 0.0%
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for January…est. +1.3%
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET                 Weekly EIA/DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACH AKAM ALRM AMH AMN ARD AXTI CARG CC CENX CTO CWST DBX ED EGO EIG EXR FG FIVN FND FNF GH GLPI HG HHH HLIT ICUI INDI IRTC JAKK LNT LYV LZ NEM OLED ONTO OPEN PK PLSE PTCT RIG RMAX RNG RYI SEM SFM ST TNDM TXRH VICR WEAV WK WSC

• B Riley 3^rd Annual Semiconductor Bus Tour, 2/19 in Phoenix, CA
• 2026 NAHB International Builders Show (IBS), 2/17-2/19, in Orlando, FL

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -2.4% vs +0.4 % last week. Bulls fall to 34.5% from 38.5%, Neutrals rise to 28.5% from 23.3%, Bears fall to 36.9% from 38.1%
• U.S. Dec net overall capital flow +$44.9B vs +$204.4B in November; Dec net long-term flow (ex-swaps/other) +$28.0B vs +$206.6B in Nov and Dec net official capital flow +$12.2B vs +$44.9B in Nov (prev +$44.9B); China's U.S. Treasury securities holdings $684B in Dec vs $684B in November

• Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q4 adj EPS $48.80 vs. est. $48.67 and revs $6.3B vs. consensus $6.13B; Q4 gross bookings grew 16% y/y, or approximately 11% on a constant currency basis and room nights grew 9% y/y; sees Q1 revenue growth of 14%-16% vs. consensus $5.36B, room nights growth of 5%-7%, gross bookings growth 14%-16%, and adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%-14%; Announces 25 for 1 forward stock split.
• Carvana (CVNA) shares fell after Q4 adj EBITDA $511Mm vs est $534.84Mm, FY adj EBITDA $2.2B vs est $2.254B on revs $20.3B vs est $19.996B; sees significant growth in retail units sole and adj EBITDA in FY26 including sequential gains in Q1 in both.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q4 EPS $0.60 vs est $0.99 on revs $961.558Mm vs est $949.6Mm, comps at Cheesecake factory restaurants -2.2%; raises quarterly dividend, boosts share buyback by 5M shares; Food and beverage costs as a % of revs fell 70 bps to 21.6%, while labor expenses improved by 40 bps to 33.8% of sales.
• DoorDash (DASH) Q4 EPS $0.48 vs est $0.59, adj EBITDA $780Mm vs est $772.6Mm on revs $3.96B vs est $3.99B; sees Q1 marketplace GOV $31.0-31.8B and adj EBITDA $675-775Mm vs est $798.22Mm.
• eBay Inc. (EBAY) to acquire Depop from Etsy (ETSY) for $1.2B in cash; reported Q4 adj EPS $1.41 vs. consensus $1.35 on revs $2.97Bvs. est. $2.87B; reports Q4 GMV $21.2B, up 10% on as-reported basis; sees Q1 adjusted EPS $1.53-$1.59, above consensus $1.48 and revs $3B-$3.05B, vs. consensus $2.8B.
• Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Q4 adj EPS $3.14 vs est $3.20, adj EBITDA $123.3M vs est $123.81Mm on revs $308.1Mm vs est $308.1Mm; guides Q1 revs $307-308Mm vs est $309.3Mm and EPS $2.70-2.73 vs est $2.82; sees FY revs $1.168-1.189B vs est $1.181B and EPS $9.55-10.16 vs est $9.95.
• Molson Coors (TAP) Q4 EPS $1.21 tops consensus $1.15 on revs $2.66B vs. consensus $2.71B; 2026 FY outlook net sales flat, plus or minus 1% versus 2025 on a constant currency basis and 2026 outlook underlying EPS to decline in the range of 11%-15% y/y; announced a 3-year cost savings program targeting up to $450M.
• U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian ruled yesterday that Live Nation (LYV) must face an antitrust trial from Department of Justice and various states for allegedly monopolizing the live events market.

• CVR Energy (CVI) Q4 adj EPS ($0.80) vs est ($0.85), adj EBITDA $91Mm vs est $81.47Mm on sales $1.81B vs est $1.7B; expects Q1 2026 petroleum throughput between 200,000 and 215,000 bpd.
• Edison International (EIX) Q4 core EPS $1.86 vs. est. 41.48; Q4 adj net income $717M; sees continued confidence in delivering 5-7% core EPS growth from 2025-2028 and extending to 2030; Introduced 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90-6.20 and 2027 core EPS guidance of $6.25-6.65.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q4 EPS $0.31 tops consensus $0.18; raises dividend by 8% to $0.26; Q4 Sales $5.11B vs. est. $5.01B; Q4 adj Net Income $315M vs. est. $114.8M); total Avg Global Production 1,481 MBOED and sees Q1 Production 1,385 To 1,425 MBOED; sees FY capex $5.5B-$5.9B.
• Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Q4 adj EBITDA $178.1Mm vs est $180Mm on revs $211.6Mm vs est $207.5Mm.

• Brookfield Senior Living (BKD) Q4 EPS ($0.17) vs est ($0.17), adj EBITDA $105.6Mm vs est $105.6Mm on revs $754.1Mm vs est $766.33Mm, RevPAR $5,219.
• Invitation Homes (INVH) Q4 core FFO/SHR $0.48 vs est $0.48 on revs $685Mm vs est $676.8Mm; guides FY revs +1.3-2.5% vs est +3.06% and AFFO/shr +1.9-1.98% vs est +3.59%.
• Lemonade (LMND) shares jump; Q4 EPS loss (-$0.29) vs. est. loss (-$0.39); Q4 revs $228M vs. est. $218.07M; sees Q1 revenue $246M-$251M, above consensus $241.57M and sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA ($25M)-($22M); sees FY 26 revs $1.187B-$1.192B vs. est. $1.16B.
• Remitly Global (RELY) Q4 EPS $0.19 vs est $0.02 on revs $442.2Mm vs est $427.2Mm; guides Q1 adj EBITDA $82-84Mm vs est $63.81Mm and positive GAAP net Inc; sees FY revs $1.94-1.96B vs est $1.924B and positive GAAP net Income.

• Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals (EPRX) 6.4M share Spot Secondary priced at $7.00.
• Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Eucalyptus, an international leader in digital health, accelerating the company's ability to bring access to high-quality, personalized care to more people across the world.

• Airbus (EADSY) narrowed its target output for the narrowbody A320neo series - its best-selling model - between 70 and 75 jets a month by the end of next year, stabilizing at 75 a month beyond 2027 (had previously predicted 75 a month in 2027, up from 60 now); reported Q4 adjusted operating profit of 2.98 billion euros ($3.51 billion), up 17%, as revenue rose 5% to 25.98 billion euros (vs. est. 2.87B euros and revs $26.51B euros).
• CF Industries (CF) Q4 sales $1.87B vs. est. $1.78B; Q4 Average selling prices were higher for all segments y/y due to strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions from geopolitical issues; Q4 sales volumes were lower y/y due primarily to lower granular urea and ammonium nitrate (AN) sales.
• Coeur Mining (CDE) Q4 adj EPS $0.35 vs. est. $0.32; Q4 revs $678.85M vs. est. $617.07M; Q4 gold production 14,719 ounces and reports Q4 silver production 1.4M ounces; Q4 free cash flow increased 66% q/q to a record $313M; Q4 adj EBITDA increased 60% q/q to a record $425M; expects 2026 gold and silver production from Coeur's current portfolio of assets of 390,000 - 460,000 ounces and 18.2 - 21.3 million ounces, respectively
• CRH Plc (CRH) Q4 adj EPS $1.52 vs est $1.53 on revs $9.42B vs est $9.47B; guides FY adj EBITDA $8.1-8.5B vs est $8.3B and EPS $5.60-6.05 vs est $6.10.
• Nordson (NDSN) Q1 sales $669.1M vs. est. $653.5M; Q1 adj EPS were $2.37, a first quarter record and up 15% y/y; Q1 EBITDA was also a first quarter record of $203M, or 30% of sales, an increase of 8% y/y; Q1 backlog grew approximately 4% y/y; is increasing full year guidance for sales and earnings.
• Reliance Inc. (RS) Q4 adj EPS $2.40 vs est $2.83 on sales $3.5B vs est $3.44B, adj gr mgn 27.4%; guides Q1 adj EPS $4.50-4.70 vs est $4.57.
• Royal Gold (RGLD) Q4 adj EPS $1.92 vs. est. $2.64 on revs $375.3M, vs. est. $386.67M; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 82% vs. 84% y/y; Q4 Sales volume of 90,800 GEOs2 (compared to 76,100 in the prior year period)

• Figma, Inc. (FIG) Q4 adj EPS $0.08 vs est. $0.07 and revs $303.8M vs est. $293.2M; guides FY revs $1.36B-$1.37B vs est. $1.29B and Q1 revs $315M-$317M vs est. $291.9M
• Omnicom (OMC) Q4 adj EPS $2.59 vs est $2.61, adj EBITDA $928.9Mm vs est $927.4Mm on revs $5.529B vs est $5.038B; announces $5B repurchase program and entry into $2.5B accelerated share repurchase arrangements.
• Salesforce (CRM) signed a definitive agreement to acquire Momentum, a conversational insights and revenue orchestration platform.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, February 19, 2026

U.S. stock markets have been very choppy the last 2-weeks, with different market leaders and laggards each day taking turns. One constant has been energy strength (XLE), leading today and now up 24% in 2026, while Technology (XLK) gives back some of yesterday gains and remains down about -3% in 2026 after leading in 2025/2024. Another constant has been Bitcoin and crypto, tumbling and staying lower over the last month, down about 50% from all-time highs last October. The US dollar index (DXY) climbs to 4-week high above 98, precious metal prices are bouncing, and oil is leading on Iran concerns. Axios report that President Trump may be closer to war with Iran than previously thought, while a WSJ piece says that the US has now amassed its greatest air power presence in the Mid-east since the 2003 Iraq invasion. In earnings, WMT reported better quarterly results and comps, but issued conservative guidance. Economic data plentiful today with improved weekly jobless claims, stronger overall Philly Fed data (but components mixed), trade deficit grew and pending home sales for the month came in well below consensus). Some huge stock moves on earnings last night and earlier this morning, with some of the biggest highlights listed below. Deere (DE) record highs after results, OXY leading in energy post results while CAR and CVNA decline in auto related space along with weakness in Wayfair (W), YETI in retail and TAP in beverages.

• Philadelphia Fed business conditions February 16.3 (consensus 8.5) vs January 12.6; Philadelphia Fed prices paid index February 38.9 vs January 46.9; new orders index February 11.7 vs January 14.4; employment index February -1.3 vs January 9.7 and six-month business conditions February 42.8 vs January 25.5.
• The U.S. international trade in goods and services deficit increased 32.6% to $70.3B in December vs. $55.50B  consensus and $53.00B in November (revised from $56.8B). The number of imports rose 3.6% to $357.6B in December, while exports fell 1.7% to $287.3B. The headline number reflected a $15.7B increase in the goods deficit and a $1.6B decrease in the services surplus. The three-month moving average of the goods and services deficit increased $7.5B to $50.7B, the U.S. Census Bureau said.
• Jan Pending Home sales index -0.8% below consensus +1.3%; Pending Home sales -0.4% from Jan 2025.

• In Transports: CAR shares fell after forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2026 that missed the average analyst estimate after Q4 revs were $2.66B, below consensus of $2.74B as Net loss reflects $518M impairment charges on EV rental cars; the company did not provide specific financial guidance for 2026. AAL said its future deliveries of Airbus A321neo Aircraft will continue to be powered by CFM International Leap-1A engines, expanding its partnership with the GE and Safran Joint venture; GATX raises quarterly dividend by 8.2%, sets new $300M buyback. TFII upgraded to Neutral at Bank America as expects '26 EPS growth (we are $4.55, up 4% year-year, vs our prior $4.35) led by upside in Logistics, Truckload, and US LTL.
• In Chemicals: CF shares outperformed early in ag chemicals after Q4 results topped consensus; NTR also another ag chemical names out with earnings; HUN was Downgrade to Neutral at JP Morgan saying its share price now discounts a fair amount of cyclical earnings recovery. Huntsman trades currently at 13x estimated EBITDA for 2026 and 10x EBITDA for 2027 with a 2% and 5% free cash flow yield for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
• Casinos & Gaming (WYNN, MGM, LVS, CZR): Las Vegas drew about 3.1M fewer visitors in 2025, a -7.5% drop — its sharpest decline outside the pandemic since record-keeping began in 1970, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. Passenger traffic in 2025 fell about -6% at Harry Reid, served by Carriers like AAL, ALGT, LUV. December traffic, typically buoyed by holiday travel, fell -10.3%. Conventions are holding up; the weakness is Leisure – Reuters.

• DASH +8%; as reported Q4 GOV and EBITDA slightly above prior estimates, with core DoorDash GOV up 25% y/y, driven by strong performance across key businesses; Q1 guide that's 1% ahead at the high end vs its estimate.
• DE +6%; posted big Q1 EPS/revs beat as EPS $2.42, vs. consensus $2.10 and net revenue $9.61B vs. est. $7.5B; raises FY net Income forecast to range between $4.5B-$5B above its previous forecast of $4B-$4.75B; Net Income for Q1 decreased 25% yr/yr to $656M.
• EBAY +7%; said it would acquire Depop from ETSY for $1.2B in cash while also reported strong Q4 with net revenue and EPS 3%/14% above consensus/Q1 guidance was impressive, with GMV/NET revenue guidance each 9% above consensus as eBay benefits from a spike in bullion/collectible coins.
• ETSY +15%; after the online marketplace agreed to sell its Depop business to EBAY for about $1.2 billion.
• OXY +9%; on better EPS ($0.31 vs. $0.18 est.) as strength in their midstream unit helped offset weaker crude oil prices, production rose slightly to 1.48 million barrels (MMboepd) of oil equivalent per day and lowered capex.
• PWR +5%; reported better than expected results and guided 2026 stronger mostly due to M&A where PWR made 3 acquisitions in 4Q for $1.73B; Keybanc noted guidance would have been higher even without the 3 deals.

• CAR -19%; forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2026 that missed the average analyst estimate after Q4 revs were $2.66B, below consensus of $2.74B as Net loss reflects $518M impairment charges on EV rental cars; the company did not provide specific financial guidance for 2026.
• CVNA -3%; shares fell as retail unit sales were strong but disappointing GPU, or Gross Profit per Unit, mainly at the retail GPU level, drove Adjusted EBITDA below Street expectation, and mgmt shifted back to the qualitative guidance framework of "significant growth" for units and EBITDA, both for 2026 and on a sequential basis in Q1.
• KLAR -23%; swung to a net loss of $26M for Q4, compared with a profit of $40M y/y; reported a 38% Y/y jump in Q4 sales $1.08B vs. est. $1.07B, said users of its Banking services doubled to 15.8M; gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 32% to $38.7B in the quarter; guides Q1 revs $900M-$980M vs. est. $965.8M.
• OWL -7%; sold about $1.4 billion of direct-lending investments across three funds to provide investors with promised liquidity and after permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors.
• POOL -12%; shares fell after Q4 miss with EPS $0.84/$982.2M revs below consensus of $0.98/$999M and forecasts annual profit below Wall Street estimates, seeing $10.85-$11.15 below ests $11.62 saying was hurt by weak demand for new equipment amid tariff-fueled price hikes.
• TAP -4%; shares fell after reported 4Q net sales miss and underlying EPS beat but FY'26 guidance, including an expected -11% to -15% EPS decline (vs consensus +1.5%), weighed on the shares. The co said they expect industry and market share improvement, but elevated Midwest Premium will pressure gross margins.
• W -10%; shares tumbled after reporting in-line Q4 revs of $3.3B but Q4 net loss was  -$116M vs. and est profit and said sees Q1 gross margin to come in at the lower end of its 30% to 31% range, due to rising investments including marketing and advertising spends
• YETI -10%; posted Q4 EPS/revs that topped consensus, but shares slid after guiding FY26 adjusted EPS $2.77-$2.83, below consensus $2.85 with FY26 adjusted sales growth 6%-8%, vs. consensus $1.97B.

Closing Recap

Wednesday, February 18, 2026

U.S. stocks opened slightly in positive territory before rallying all morning and early afternoon before stalling just before the FOMC Minutes from their January meeting. Following the minutes, the US dollar hit one week highs and stocks pared gains as Federal Reserve officials were in near-unanimous agreement to keep interest rates on hold at their meeting last month, but remained split over what might happen next, leading to a slightly pullback in stocks. There were several macro items of note today including headlines out or Iran/US, Russia/Ukraine, and Fed Minutes from the prior FOMC meeting as well as economic data (housing starts/durable goods) that impacted markets. Early stock market gains were paced by the same leaders of 2026 so far with Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) along with a rebound in tech (XLK) and Financials (XLF). Tech was strong early s investors look to put the last few weeks of (XLK, QQQ, IGV) weakness in the rear view window as Mag 7 large caps (AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA). Still up this week key PCE inflation data on Friday and some big earnings with Wal-Mart reporting tomorrow morning. Stocks finished off the highs but still managed a solid bounce into the close as the VIX dipped back below the 20 level again.

Fed minutes released today: Federal Reserve officials were in near-unanimous agreement to keep interest rates on hold at their meeting last month, but remained split over what might happen next, with "several" policymakers raising the risk of possible hikes in borrowing costs if inflation remains elevated, and others split over if and when further cuts might be warranted, according to minutes of their January 27-28 meeting. The decision to hold rates steady was shared by "almost all" U.S. central bank officials as a way to assess where the economy stood after 75 basis points of cuts last year, with only a "couple" supporting a rate cut, said the minutes. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran both cast dissenting votes at the meeting based on concerns the job market may be at risk of weakening.

• December new orders for manufactured durable goods fell (-1.4%) M/M to $319.6B vs. (-2.3%) consensus and +5.4% prior (revised from +5.3%), according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. New orders, excluding transportation: +0.9% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.4% prior (revised from +0.5%). New orders, excluding defense: -2.5% M/M vs. +6.6% prior (revised from +6.5%).

• Also, an abrupt end to Russia-Ukraine talks per Reuters today as Ukraine peace talks end in Geneva after Zelenskiy says Russia stalling. Thoe headlines helped boost oil prices as U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $65.19/bbl, up $2.86, or 4.59% while Brent gained $2.93 or 4.35% to settle $70.35.
• Treasury yields jumped after the US Treasury sold $16 billion in 20-yr paper in an especially disappointing auction. The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.664%, down from 4.846% in January and the lowest since October. It tailed the When Issued 4.644% by a whopping 2bps, the biggest tail since November 2024. Indirects took down just 55.167%, down from 64.715% in January and the second lowest on record (only Feb 2021 was worse).
• Bitcoin prices absolutely no bounce in recent weeks, down another 1% today and dropping below $67,000 with no notable rebound to speak off in weeks.

• In Restaurants: WING posted mixed Q4 results as EPS $1.00 topped consensus $0.83, but revs of $175.7M, was just below the $177.36M estimate while Q4 System-wide sales of $1.3B, up 9.3% vs. 2024; said expects annual domestic same store sales growth of flat to low-single digit vs estimate of 2.15% growth; sees annual SG&A between $151M-$154M which includes $3M of restructuring charges

• In Home Furnishing: LZB shares fell as Q3 results were above consensus, with overall sales growth, while Q3 same-store retail written orders decelerated sequentially 4% vs -2% in FQ2, trends improved on a two-year stack; also issued FQ4 sales guidance below consensus, reflecting the macro environment and the impacts of weather.

• Leisure Sector: MCW shares jumped as entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant where funds managed by Leonard Green & Partners will purchase the outstanding shares of the common stock that are not already owned by LGP's affiliates for $7.00 per share in cash, which implies a total enterprise value of the Company of $3.1B. STUB was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup as believes regulatory headwinds are now largely Incorporated in the prevailing equity value. MSGS shares jumped after saying they will explore a potential spin-off, separating its New York Knicks and New York Rangers businesses into two publicly traded companies which would provide each team with greater flexibility and create additional value for shareholders.

• In Solar: SEDG shares helped lift solar stocks after Q4 revs $335.4M topped consensus $329M on better than expected losses of net income ($-8.2M vs. est. $-15.2M) and adj operating profit ($-11M vs. est. $-19.9M), while guides Q1 revenue $290M-$320M above consensus $292.44M.
• In Refiners: DINO shares declined after saying its CEO has taken a voluntary leave of absence, with board chair stepping in on an interim basis after it said the audit committee is assessing matters related to its disclosure controls; the co also posted a better-than-expected Q4 profit, supported by higher refining margins.
• Coal stocks (ARLP, BTU, ARCH) active after the NY Times reported the U.S. EPA this week intends to loosen regulations on coal-burning power plants, letting them emit more hazardous pollutants including mercury. Senior officials at the agency are anticipated to announce the changes during a trip to Louisville, KY later this week.
• Oil Drillers & Equipment: Barclays downgraded shares of oil drillers NE and RIG to equal weight from overweight but raise prices tgts and estimates after rally in shares; OVV announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Anadarko assets, located in Oklahoma, to an undisclosed buyer, for cash proceeds of $3B.
• Oil E&P sector: DVN Q4 results show Delaware outperformance drove EBITDA beat, with volumes and LOE offsetting weaker price realizations/2026 guide steady; EQT EBITDA beat driven by strong 4Q pricing and 609 bcfe/d production above guidance and  2026 capex higher on midstream growth; volumes guided slightly below consensus; SM said it will sell select assets in South Texas to Caturus Energy for $950M in cash as agrees to sell nearly 61,000 net acres and about 260 producing wells in its southern Maverick Basin position in Webb County, Texas, along with related support facilities.

• In Payments: GPN sets $2.5B Share-Repurchase authorization, entering into $550M accelerated buyback and reported mostly in-line Q4 results with profit forecast above views ($13.80-$14.00 vs. est. $13/78) as sees constant currency adjusted net revenue growth of approximately 5%
• In Insurance: GSHD reported a top and bottom line beat as total written premiums place $1.1B vs est $1.115B but shares erased gains as guides FY organic revs +10-19% vs est +18.9% and total written premiums +12-20% vs est +16.21%. GSHD was upgraded to Overweight from neutral after results; Ai concerns overblown at Piper. MCY Q4 adj EPS $3.66 vs est $2.56 on revs $1.54B vs est $1.509B, premiums written $1.428B vs est $1.417B; PGR said that its January net premiums written are estimated to come at $6.74B, compared to $6.48B in the same period a year ago and estimated its January net premiums earned to come at $6.92B, vs. $6.59B a year ago.

• AMGN filed for four-part Senior notes offering of up to $4B.
• BIOA was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, citing its lead experimental therapy and its potential in heart and eye diseases.
• LLY said its weight-loss drug, Zepbound, used with psoriasis treatment Taltz, showed better results in patients with the skin disease and obesity in a late-stage study, compared to Taltz alone.
• MRNA said the U.S. FDA accepted its application to review mRNA-1010, a vaccine targeting seasonal influenza using messenger RNA technology; the FDA had initially refused to review the vaccine, citing flaws in trial design.
• RXRX shares fell after NVDA disclosed last night in SEC filing selling their stake in Recursion.
• WST authorizes $1B share repurchase program.
• Medical Equipment: ATRC reported in-line with the mid-January pre-announcement, above-consensus 4Q revenues at $140.5 million (+12% y/y) were driven by strong Pain Management (+24% y/y) and Open Heart Ablation (+17% y/y) performances and Ebitda of $19.9MM was nicely above the implied $15M-$17M range.
• In Insulin Sector: PODD reported better-than-expected Q4 results as total revenue jumped 31.2% to $783.8M topping estimates of $768.7M on better adj EPS on the back of strong demand for its tubeless insulin pumps that eliminate the need for daily injections; forecast full-year 2026 revenue growth of 20% to 22% in constant currency, with adjusted earnings per share expected to climb more than 25%.
• Animal Health sector: COR’s MWI Animal Health will merge with animal health technology and services company Covetrus in a deal that gives MWI an enterprise value of $3.5 billion. Cencora will receive upfront cash proceeds of $1.25 billion, $800 million in preferred equity and $1.45 billion paid in common equity in combined company.

• In Aerospace & Defense: PLTR was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho with $195 tgt saying the company is delivering total revenue growth, acceleration, and margin expansion at scale that is unlike anything else in software. HWM files for three-part notes offering of up to $1.2B.
• In Chemicals: CE reported mixed results as Q4 EPS/revs miss (EPS $0.67/$2.2B vs est $0.91/$2.256B) on weaker Q1 guide as sees adj EPS $0.70-0.85 vs est $0.89/Q4 results came in below expectations, as Q4 upside in Engineered Materials (EM) is more than offset by weakness in acetyls and acetate tow. HUN Q4 results came in slightly better, while the Q1 outlook is modestly worse

• In Telecom: LBTYA announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with VOD to acquire Vodafone's 50% shareholding in their Dutch telecommunications joint venture, VodafoneZiggo. Under the terms of the agreement, Vodafone will receive EUR 1B in cash and a 10% stake in a new Benelux company to be named Ziggo Group which will hold Liberty Global's interests in VodafoneZiggo and Telenet in Belgium

• Cyber Security: PANW shares fell after delivered Q2 results as key metrics beat the midpoint of guidance, but issues mixed guidance; Q2 Services rev decelerated to 13.3 % y/y and missed while FY26 margins were lowered by 1pt to 29% (due to M&A); cuts FY26 adjusted EPS view to $3.65-$3.70 from $3.80-$3.90, while raises FY26 revenue view to $11.28B-$11.31B from $10.5B-$10.54B, vs. consensus $10.53B; Q2 Next-Generation Security ARR grew 33% y/y to $6.3B and remaining performance obligation grew 23% y/y to $16.0B.
• Software movers: SMWB shares tumbled as reported Q425 revenue of $72.8M, up 11% Y/y (vs est. at $76.1M) and non-GAAP EBIT of $3.4M, up from $2.6M Y/y (vs at $3.3M) as revenue miss was largely attributable to timing of two large LLM data training contracts that did not close in Q4, but remain in the pipeline while guidance was worse than expected on both the top and bottom line; WDAY was downgraded to Market Perform from Market Outperform at Citizens following the return of founder Aneel Bhusri as CEO and a 33% YTD stock decline versus roughly flat major indices, citing near-term execution risk despite 4Q preannounced results “in line” with prior guidance. SMWB shares tumbled

• ADI Q1 revenue and EPS topped analyst estimates while sees Q2 rev of $3.5B plus or minus $100 mln, above Wall Street estimates of $3.23B and guided Q2 EPS also above views says they see increased demand for its semiconductors from ai-fueled industrial and data center customer demand.
• MKSI reported Q4 EPS of $2.47 vs cons. $2.46 on sales of $1.03M vs consensus $1.02M s all segments came in better than prior views and guided Q1 above views, but EPS was guided down 19% sequentially on similar sales, likely from a normalizing tax rate, which weighed on shares.
• SNDK said former Parent WDC sold ~5.8M shares as part of debt-for-equity exchange at $545 per share; the offering price represents 7.7% discount to last sale of SNDK shares

Street Recommendations

Thursday, February 19, 2026

• BMO Barclays raised the firm's price target on Bank of Montreal to C$196 from C$181 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares as part of a Q1 earnings preview for the Canadian banks. The firm expects Canadian bank earnings to modestly increase from Q4 on balance sheet growth, stable net interest income, lower expenses, benign credit quality and active share repurchases. It upped price targets in the group to reflect easing mortgage renewal concerns.
• BNS Barclays raised the firm's price target on Scotiabank to C$106 from C$97 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares as part of a Q1 earnings preview for the Canadian banks. The firm expects Canadian bank earnings to modestly increase from Q4 on balance sheet growth, stable net interest income, lower expenses, benign credit quality and active share repurchases. It upped price targets in the group to reflect easing mortgage renewal concerns.
• RY Barclays raised the firm's price target on Royal Bank of Canada to C$244 from C$227 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of a Q1 earnings preview for the Canadian banks. The firm expects Canadian bank earnings to modestly increase from Q4 on balance sheet growth, stable net interest income, lower expenses, benign credit quality and active share repurchases. It upped price targets in the group to reflect easing mortgage renewal concerns.
• TD Barclays raised the firm's price target on TD Bank to C$133 from C$118 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares as part of a Q1 earnings preview for the Canadian banks. The firm expects Canadian bank earnings to modestly increase from Q4 on balance sheet growth, stable net interest income, lower expenses, benign credit quality and active share repurchases. It upped price targets in the group to reflect easing mortgage renewal concerns.
• BKNG Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Booking Holdings to $5,500 from $6,250 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views the company's earnings report as "decent." Decent a Q4 beat and bookings guided ahead, Booking's margin expansion was "a touch light," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes it may be challenging for the shares to work near-term.
• EBAY Barclays lowered the firm's price target on eBay to $104 from $105 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company reported "another banger" in Q4 and guided ahead of consensus. The analyst does not see a better stock from a total shareholder return perspective in consumer internet.
• ZS Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Zscaler to $220 from $350 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the earnings report on February 26. Competition fears have weighed on the stock, but Zscaler is the leader in a "rising tide Zero Trust market," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects the company to post a modest beat.

• EBAY Bernstein raised the firm's price target on eBay to $95 from $90 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes "2025 became a walk on the red carpet" for eBay. Macro tailwinds certainly contributed but the numbers were impressive nonetheless, Bernstein adds.

• BKNG BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Booking Holdings to $6,200 from $6,000 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company reported solid Q4 results with Bookings and adjusted EBITDA coming in 3% and 4% ahead of the Street, driven by healthy demand across all regions, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CLH BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Clean Harbors to $310 from $290 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's Q4 update had several positive takeaways including improving underlying demand, good execution and cost controls, and increased capital deployment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CSTM BMO Capital analyst Katja Jancic raised the firm's price target on Constellium to $30 from $25 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. Increasing free cash flow generation should support deleveraging and continued share repurchases for the company, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• XRAY BofA upgraded Dentsply Sirona to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $17, up from $13. Ahead of 2026 guidance due next week, which "could be a clearing event," the firm thinks the risk/reward "finally skews positive," the analyst tells investors. While earnings may cause volatility as management could cut the dividend, commit to elevated investments, and introduce below Street guidance, the firm would see this as a potential attractive opportunity as these decisions and progress in repairing distributor relationships could support growth stabilizing over the medium term, BofA added.
• MRNA BofA analyst Alex Stranahan raised the firm's price target on Moderna to $31 from $27 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares after the company announced that the FDA had reversed course and accepted for review the BLA filing for mRNA-1010 with a slightly altered regulatory path and PDUFA date of August 5. While the firm returns its flu build in the U.S. to its model, with assumptions of 7% peak penetration and 70% odds of success, it reiterates an Underperform rating as it still sees the path ahead for mRNA-1010 as unclear.
• TFII BofA analyst Ken Hoexter upgraded TFI International to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $123, up from $111, given the firm's view of potential "strong" cash generation, idiosyncratic U.S. less-than-truckload operational improvement, and EPS growth in 2026. The firm increased its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates by 5% and 6%, respectively.
• DASH BofA raised the firm's price target on DoorDash to $272 from $260 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. DoorDash is executing well and despite the recent Deliveroo expectations shortfall, the acquisition positions the company to be a strong global platform, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• CVNA BofA analyst Michael McGovern lowered the firm's price target on Carvana to $400 from $460 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Management shifted back to the qualitative guidance framework of "significant growth" for units and EBITDA, both for 2026 and on a sequential basis in Q1, notes the analyst, who believes investors may have been looking for an EBITDA guidance range to provide greater confidence in the incremental margin trajectory given Q4 EBITDA missing estimates.
• MCO BofA analyst Curtis Nagle raised the firm's price target on Moody's to $560 from $550 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which is raising its EPS estimates on stronger first half issuance, sees AI as a productivity and new product driver and sees durable moats from proprietary data, deeply embedded regulation in core markets and high switching costs, the analyst tells investors after earnings.

• CVNA BTIG analyst Marvin Fong lowered the firm's price target on Carvana to $455 from $535 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results. Retail unit sales were strong but disappointing GPU, or Gross Profit per Unit, mainly at the retail GPU level, drove Adjusted EBITDA below Street expectation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• PODD Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Insulet to $435 from $450 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said the company capped off a strong 2025 with a Q4 beat as the US drove upside in the quarter and was driven by T2D adoption. Canaccord feels conviction in our thesis that Insulet is the company best positioned in the AID world, with the Omnipod having the best form factor for continued adoption in both the T1 and T2 populations, scalable to the pharmacy channel.

• BKNG Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Deepak Mathivanan lowered the firm's price target on Booking Holdings to $4,495 from $5,830 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Booking Holdings reported Q4 results with room nights, gross bookings, and EBITDA exceeding prior estimates by 2%, 2%, and 4%, respectively, mirroring strong online travel agency peer performance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Fundamentals remain solid, though AI-related uncertainty may pressure near- to medium-term multiples, the firm says.
• DASH Cantor Fitzgerald lowered the firm's price target on DoorDash to $230 from $285 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. DoorDash reported q4 GOV and EBITDA slightly above prior estimates, with core DoorDash GOV up 25% year over year, driven by strong performance across key businesses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MKSI Citi analyst Atif Malik raised the firm's price target on MKS Inc. to $295 from $185 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a "beat and raise" quarter amid strengthening demand across its end markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CAKE Citi raised the firm's price target on Cheesecake Factory to $74 from $72 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the company "weathered through" Q4 challenging environment in Q4. It believes the company's fiscal 2026 outlook could prove conservative.

• TMUS Daiwa upgraded T-Mobile to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $240, up from $230. The firm says the company's "mixed" Q4 results were overshadowed by a "strong" capital markets day. T-Mobile guided to service revenue growth of 6% on an organic basis in 2026 and 5% in 2027, along with core adjusted EBITDA of 7% in 2026 and 8% in 2027, which is sector leading and mostly in line with consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Daiwa believes the company should continue to be growth leader. It cites the pullback in the shares and the guidance for the upgrade.

• EBAY Goldman Sachs upgraded eBay to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $88, up from $77, following the Q4 report. The company reported strong results as investments have been made to reposition eBay toward "durable growth," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees solid operating momentum for the company in 2026. Goldman cites eBay's "stable operating margin narrative coupled with shareholder returns" for the upgrade.

• NAMS Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on NewAmsterdam Pharma to $45 from $41 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. In talks, management expressed confidence in the progress of the Phase 3 CVOT PREVAIL trial and guided to an update by mid-2026 based on continued adjudication of events through at least two years of follow-up, notes the analyst, who currently expects topline data from PREVAIL by early 2027.

• HUN JPMorgan downgraded Huntsman to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $14, up from $11. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade. Huntsman shares now discount a "fair amount of cyclical earnings recovery," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan thinks the stock now reasonably discounts a meaningful recovery in its EBITDA over a multi-year period following the recent rally.
• FIG JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy lowered the firm's price target on Figma to $45 from $60 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The firm cites the "material shift in peer group multiples" for the target cut but notes the company's revenue guidance came in well above expectations. Figma is seeing momentum with larger paid customers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• DASH JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth lowered the firm's price target on DoorDash to $272 from $300 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q4 report as solid. DoorDash is seeing improving unit economics across the board, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CVNA JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta lowered the firm's price target on Carvana to $490 from $510 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a Q4 miss on gross profit per unit, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, JPMorgan sees little risk to forward estimates citing Carvana's "strong growth." It modestly lowered estimates post the earnings print.
• MSGS JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on MSG Sports to $400 from $305 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after the company announced that its board approved plans to explore a possible separation of the New York Knicks and New York Rangers into separately traded public companies through a tax-free spin-off. JPMorgan views "explore" as a high intention to execute.

• TRV Keefe Bruyette analyst Meyer Shields raised the firm's price target on Travelers to $340 from $320 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm estimates that Travelers' year-end 2025 GAAP loss and Allocated Loss Adjustment Expense reserves were overstated by about $1.94B, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GPN Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Global Payments to $90 from $87 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model to reflect the Worldpay acquisition.

• AMPL KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Amplitude to $14 from $16 on peer multiples, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Amplitude is an interesting test case for investor preferences. This is a software company that has accelerated ARR growth for six consecutive quarters, from the low of 8.2% to nearly 10 points higher, exiting 2025 at 17.3%. But the margin level and expansion have been stubbornly low and looks like it will remain low for another year, unacceptably low for some, KeyBanc adds.
• ESI KeyBanc analyst Aleksey Yefremov raised the firm's price target on Element Solutions to $36 from $34 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes the Q4 update provides all the evidence of accelerated adoption of ESI advanced packaging products and a broadening cycle that now involves PCBs in addition to semi materials. Electronics incremental margins fell shy of what KeyBanc was hoping for, though it acknowledges the spike of metal prices is a temporary headwind that should reverse in the first half of the year. The firm continues to see potential for shares to re-rate as organic growth in Electronics accelerates.
• NDSN KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Nordson to $325 from $295 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Following the company's Q1 earnings release, the firm walked away encouraged by robust sales momentum in ATS, and clear signs of order/backlog strength despite some emerging margin pressure in IPS. Looking forward, KeyBanc feels Nordson's updated guidance is relatively conservative and views current levels as an attractive entry point ahead of more meaningful cyclical improvements across the portfolio.
• SNOW KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Snowflake to $235 from $285 on lower peer multiples, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm surveyed 20 Snowflake and Databricks customers and partners. Q4 survey results were incrementally positive for Snowflake, driven by improved spend intentions, AI tailwinds, and broadening product adoption. KeyBanc comes away from the survey and its conversations with continued conviction in Snowflake's position to benefit an organization's AI investments and Snowflake's broadening platform capabilities.

• EBAY Morgan Stanley analyst Nathan Feather raised the firm's price target on eBay to $119 from $112 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after the company posted 8% forex-neutral GMV growth in Q4 and pointed to Q1 acceleration in what the firm calls "a 'golden' print." GMV is accelerating even excluding the temporary benefit from coins and bullion, showing this is not simply temporary growth, adds the analyst, who believes GMV growth is more sustainable than the market expects.
• SEDG Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on SolarEdge to $40 from $33 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Q4 beat consensus estimates and Q1 demand guidance met expectations, notes the analyst, who expects further recovery in core markets and remains bullish on the longer-term potential of the Nexis platform and the transformer product for 800V DC data centers.

• WTTR Northland upgraded Select Water Solutions to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $18, up from $12. Q4 results and commentary were "decisively bullish," says the analyst, who sees the network effect of its infrastructure segment "taking hold" along with strong gains in its chemicals segment. Given the firm's "street-high (and achievable) FY27 estimates," the firm sees "a compelling story," the analyst added.

• EBAY Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on eBay to $105 from $98 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q4 results were very strong across the board, with gross merchandise value growth to up 8% year-over-year constant currency above guide 4%-6% and the U.S. accelerating to 19% year-over-year reported.
• JACK Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Jack in the Box to $23 from $17 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following quarterly results. The top-line remains pressured at the Jack in the Box brand, with a same-store sales result of down 6.7% for the Q1 time period. In addition, from the call, Piper gathers that quarter-to-date same-store sales are currently running firmly negative, and will likely remain so for the full Q2 time period. That said, the company expects a return to positive same-
• DINO Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on HF Sinclair to $63 from $67 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that "it is difficult to put a positive spin on DINO's 4Q conference call," which Piper thinks did little to minimize fallout from CEO Tim Go's "voluntary leave" and, "frankly, did a poor job" answering the questions of the cause/potential impact of its auditor investigation into "disclosure processes", how the audit relates to the departure of the CEO, and implications for future leadership/outlook. This overshadowed what was a challenging Q4 refining and Lubes result, the firm adds.
• AMPL Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Amplitude to $10 from $12 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company delivered Q4 revenue 2% above the midpoint and guided FY26 revenue to 15% year-over-year growth, above consensus of 14% and implying a year-over-year acceleration. Piper thinks Amplitude's quarter was a continuation of solid upmarket execution, increased product velocity, and product momentum, and remains encouraged by the traction with AI-native customers.
• BKNG Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion lowered the firm's price target on Booking Holdings to $5,000 from $5,750 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes shares are roughly flat after-hours following a solid Q4 result above guidance, driven by a reacceleration in the U.S. room nights and strength in Asia. Piper remains mixed on the OTA space although Booking's execution across GenAI, loyalty, Alternatives and AsiaPac looks solid.

• MED Stephens lowered the firm's price target on Medifast to $12 from $15 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While the firm believes that operating discipline and restructuring savings are important, the "key proof point will be a return to growth in the coach count," the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• SM Stephens raised the firm's price target on SM Energy to $49 from $48 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While noting that the sale price of $25,000/Boepd is slightly below the average of similar Eagle Ford transactions completed over the past three years, the firm views SM's divestiture of 61,000 net acres and 38 MBoepd in the Eagle Ford for $950M as "positive."
• RUSHA Stephens raised the firm's price target on Rush Enterprises to $80 from $55 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after the company reported Q4 results ahead of the firm's and consensus expectations. Free cash flow generation remains strong through the freight cycle and the firm expects Rush to deploy its strong cash flow into accretive M&A, repurchases, and dividends in FY26, the analyst tells investors.
• TFII Stephens lowered the firm's price target on TFI International to $105 from $115 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following a Q4 EPS beat paired with Q1 guidance that "underwhelms." The firm needs to see more signs of operational improvement before becoming more positive, the analyst tells investors.

• GENI Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial lowered the firm's price target on Genius Sports to $7 from $10 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. While the firm says its checks conducted over the past two weeks with competitors and customers leave it coming away "incrementally constructive" and argues this creates favorable long-term risk-reward despite difficult to disprove fears of AI impact to Legend user engagement, it adds that "timing keeps us cautious for now."
• WING Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull raised the firm's price target on Wingstop to $325 from $290 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's updated target reflects its growing confidence in the company's ability to drive consistently positive same-restaurant sales in 2026 and beyond, while maintaining an aggressive pace of development, the analyst tells investors.

• GPN UBS analyst Timothy Chiodo raised the firm's price target on Global Payments to $87 from $80 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Global Payments initiated its 2026 guidance for the combined company, building on 5% adjusted revenue growth in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Management highlighted ongoing go to market integration efforts where the combined pure-play merchant acquirer is likely to benefit from greater global distribution, UBS says.
• BKNG UBS analyst Stephen Ju lowered the firm's price target on Booking Holdings to $6,485 from $6,608 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Booking Holdings delivered a standout Q4 with room nights up 9% year over year, well above its 4%-6% guidance, driven by continued investment in Asia and improved U.S. marketing efficiency, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The Transformation Program generated $250M in 2025 savings and is targeting $500M-$550M in 2026, supporting self-funded reinvestment, while initial 2026 guidance calls for low double-digit gross bookings and revenue growth and mid-teens adjusted EPS growth, trending ahead of its long-term 8-8-15 framework, UBS says.

• FIG Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin lowered the firm's price target on Figma to $42 from $52 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company delivered a strong response to questions, with Q4 re-acceleration to 40% and initial 2026 guide above expectations. Early comments on Make usage were encouraging, with forward margin the one question as investors calibrate to AI ramp, Wells adds.
• CAKE Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Cheesecake Factory to $60 from $55 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While 2025 ended on a sour note, 2026 appears off to a better start and inflation/stimulus relative tailwinds vs peers, the firm says. But with shares up 27% year-to-date and price-to-earnings up 12% vs average, Wells sees risk/reward as balanced.
• CVNA Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Carvana to $425 from $525 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that while Carvana Q4 retail units beat, it attributes after-hours pressure to the adjusted EBITDA/retail GPU shortfalls and lack of specific Q1/2026 guidance. That said, with share gains nicely intact, initiatives resonating, and long-term targets achievable, Wells is a buyer of weakness.
• TX Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Ternium to $33 from $34 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares after the Q4 miss. While the firm is encouraged by some of the trade barriers put in place in Mexico and Brazil, Wells thinks 2026 EBITDA looks too high amid continuing threat of China oversupply.
• CE Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Celanese to $55 from $45 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Given a weak start to 2026, a much stronger second half of 2026 is needed to generate year-over-year EPS growth, the firm says. As a result, Wells remains on the sidelines as the stock has had a run up 30% year-to-date.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 8:30 AM ET NY Empire Manufacturing for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Employment Trends for January
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for February

• Earnings After the Close: ACLS ANDE ATRC BBNX BELFA CDNS CE CHCT CNVS CSR CZR DVN EQT ESI ESRT EXE FE GKOS GNK GSHD GSM HALO HCKT HL HUN IAG IOSP JELD KVUE LESL LZB MCY MED MKSI NNE PANW PBI QMCO QUAD RBA ROG RSG RSI RUSHA SMWB TCMD TFII TOL TRAK USNA WTTR

• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for December
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for January
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization M/M for January
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long Term TIC Flows for December
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AGI AMPL AWK AWR BHC BKD BKNG BNL BORR CAKE CAR CDE CF CLW COKE CRH CVI CVNA CWAN CYH DASH EBAY EIX EQX FIG FSM HLF HST INVH JACK JXN KALU KGC LOPE MAC MCW MMLP NDSN NTR NXDR OGS OII OTF OXY PAAS RDN RELY RGLD RS SB TAP TBI TK TNK TPL TROX TS UAN WES WH

• 2026 NAHB International Builders Show (IBS), 2/17-2/19, in Orlando, FL

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Survey for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance Goods Trade Balance for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for December
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET                 Weekly EIA/DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACH AKAM ALRM AMH AMN ARD AXTI CARG CC CENX CTO CWST DBX ED EGO EIG EXR FG FIVN FND FNF GH GLPI HG HHH HLIT ICUI INDI IRTC JAKK LNT LYV LZ NEM OLED ONTO OPEN PK PLSE PTCT RIG RMAX RNG RYI SEM SFM ST TNDM TXRH VICR WEAV WK WSC

• B Riley 3^rd Annual Semiconductor Bus Tour, 2/19 in Phoenix, CA
• 2026 NAHB International Builders Show (IBS), 2/17-2/19, in Orlando, FL

• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 advance reading
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q4-advance
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash-Feb
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, flash-Feb
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, flash-Feb
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Sentiment, Feb-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for December
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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