Early Look

Friday, March 6, 2026

U.S. stock futures are looking lower after resuming their decline Thursday following a one-day respite, as concerns over the Iran war flared up again with U.S. crude topping $80 per barrel, raising inflation and recessionary fears. Oil prices are on track for their biggest weekly advance since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The retail price of gasoline rose to $3.32 gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. Futures have also rallied 27% this week and are on track for the biggest weekly advance since March 2022. Brent crude has rallied 20% this week, with futures on Friday climbing as much as 2.6% to more than $87 a barrel. Sending prices higher this morning, Qatar Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times in an interview published on Friday that they expect all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks if the Iran conflict continues and drives oil to $150 a barrel. Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas on Monday (the country's LNG production is equivalent to about 20% of global supply). Oil prices jumped, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures rising +4.5% at $84.65 after settled up more than 8% at $81.01 a barrel Thursday. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 342 points to 55,620, the Shanghai Index rose 15 points to 4,124, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 435 points to 25,757. In Europe, the German DAX is down -33 points to 23,781, while the FTSE 100 is down -5 points to 10,408. Next catalyst, the February jobs report due later (8:30 am et) which will focus attention on the other side of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, the labor market. Economists expect the nonfarm-payrolls reading to show the US added 55,000 jobs. Shares of MRVL, GWRE, IOT are moving higher in the tech space following earnings results last night.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -784.67 points, or 1.61%, to 47,954.74
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -58.50 points, or 0.26%, to 22,748.99
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -50.44 points, or 1.91% to 2,585.57

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for February…est. 65K (prior 172K)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for February…est. 3K (prior 5K)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for February…est. 4.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                    Average Hourly Earnings M/M and Y/Y for February…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for January

• Gap Inc. (GAP) announces new $1B share repurchase authorization; Q4 EPS $0.45 vs est $0.46 on sales $4.24B vs est $4.244B (Gap US $822Mm, ON US $2.1B, Br US $482Mm, Athleta US $346Mm); comps +3%; guides FY sales +2-3% vs est +1.9%, gr mgn flat-up slightly, adj operating margin 7.3-7.5% and adj EPS $2.20-2.35 vs est $2.14

• Quanex Building (NX) Q1 adj EPS ($0.01) vs est ($0.06), adj EBITDA $27.4Mm vs est $25.64Mm on revs $409.1Mm vs est $405.75Mm; guides FY net sales $1.84-1.87B vs est $1.841B and adj EBITDA $240-245M vs est $239.47M.
• Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk resumed oil loadings on Friday from its terminal after the suspension earlier this week following a drone attack, two sources familiar with the matter said.

• Cooper Companies (COO) Q1 EPS $1.10 vs. consensus $1.03; Q1 revs $1.024B vs. est. $1.02B; sees FY26 non-GAAP EPS $4.58-$4.66, above consensus $4.51 and revs $4.306B-$4.346B vs. consensus $4.32B; said remain on track with our long-term outlook for generating more than $2.2B in free cash flow from 2026 through 2028; Q1 operating margin of 21% compared with 19% y/y.
• Pfizer (PFE): China has approved Pfizer's GLP-1 treatment Xianweiying for long-term weight management in overweight or obese adults, the U.S. drugmaker said. The injection belongs to the class of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs sold locally by drugmakers such as Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY).
• OptimizeRx (OPRX) Q4 adj EPS $0.51 vs est $0.23, adj EBITDA $12Mm vs est $5.72Mm on revs $32.2Mm vs est $31.1Mm; authorizes $10Mm share repurchase program.

• Ingram Micro (INGM) 8.999M share Spot Secondary priced at $22.25.
• Grid Dynamics Corp. (GDYN) Q4 adj EPS $0.10 vs est $0.09, adj EBITDA $13.7Mm vs est $13.2Mm on revs $106.2Mm vs est $105.9Mm; guides Q1 revs $103-104Mm vs est $106.57Mm and adj EBITDA $12-13Mm vs est $13.687Mm; sees FY revs $435-465Mm vs est $451.13Mm.
• Guidewire Software (GWRE) Q2 adj EPS $1.17 vs. est. $0.77 and Q2 adj net income $100.7M vs. est. $66.8M; Q2 revs rose 24% y/y to $359.1M vs est. $341.7M; Q2 subscription and support revs +33%  to $237.2M; raises FY26 revenue view to $1.438B-$1.448B, above consensus $1.42B; sees FY26 ending ARR between $1.229B-$1.237B.
• Marvell Technologies (MRVL) Q4 adj EPS $0.80 vs est $0.79 on revs $2.22B vs est $2.207B, gr mgn 51.7%; guides Q1 revs $2.4B +/-5% vs est $2.265B, adj gr mgn 58.25-59.25%, adj EPS $0.74-0.84 vs est $0.74.
• Rumble (RUM) Q4 revs $27.1M vs. est. $27.62M; Q4 MAUs grew 11% sequentially, driven by international expansion; said secured $100M advertising commitment from Tether in Q4; said Q4 revenue decline was offset by a $2.7M increase in subscription and licensing fees.
• Samsara Inc. (IOT) Q4 adj EPS $0.18 vs. est. $0.13 and revs $444.3M vs. est. $422.3M; sees Q1 adj EPS $0.12-$0.13 vs. est. $0.13 and revs $454M-$456M vs. est. $444M; Q4 net new ARR of $144.8M representing 33% y/y growth in actuals and 31% in constant currency
• For semiconductors, the U.S. mulling new framework for regulating export of AI chips, per Reuters. Four-tier system for countries seeking U.S. AI chips. Exports of more than 200,000 chips could require investment in U.S. AI data centers or meeting security requirements.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, March 06, 2026

A double dose of negative headlines pressuring U.S. markets early as a further surge in oil prices (WTI crude jumps another 9% to move about $89 per barrel) raises inflation and recession fears, weighing on several sectors impacted by surging energy costs (travel etc.), while monthly jobs data showed the U.S. lost -92,000 jobs in February (the fewest jobs outside of a recession since 2003), far short of January's gain of 126,000 jobs and worse than the gain of +50,000 jobs that economists expected. The unemployment ticked slightly higher to 4.4% from 4.3%. Expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its June meeting increased after the jobs report, but that sent Treasury yields lower for the first time in 5 days and the dollar slipped, but only barely. The jobs report also raises fears that the impact on AI may already be taking hold for corporate America. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) touches over four month high, at 28.57, rising more than 17%. Bitcoin -3.7% at $68,5000 and Ethereum -4.5% breaking back below $2,000 as risk assets broadly lower on surging oil and the Nonfarm Payroll job losses. A rough start as the macro situation appears concerning into the weekend as the conflict between Iran and the U.S. (and other Middle East countries), is impacting supplies as

West Texas Intermediate futures broke above $89 per barrel. International Brent crude traded above $91 per barrel as investors weighed the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy supply. Oil prices hit their highs of the day after President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that there won’t be a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war without an “unconditional surrender” from the Middle Eastern country. Prices jumped this morning after Qatar’s energy minister told The Financial Times that Gulf energy producers may need to call force majeure in the coming days, shutting down production in a move that could send oil to $150 a barrel. The conflict in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world,” he warned.

• January retail sales fell -0.2% vs. consensus -0.3%, while January Retail Sales Ex-autos unchanged, in-line with consensus; Jan gasoline sales -2.9% vs Dec -0.1%, Jan cars/parts sales -0.9% vs Dec -0.2%. Jan Retail Sales Ex-autos/gasoline +0.3% vs Dec +0.1% (prev unchanged). Jan Retail Sales Ex-gasoline +0.1% vs Dec unchanged.
• December business inventories +0.1%, in line with estimates. November revised to unchanged from +0.1%. Business sales +0.5% vs +0.6% prior. Retail inventories ex-autos revised up to +0.4% from +0.2%.

• Business Services: Barclay’s upgraded FA to Overweight from EW, and UNF upgraded to Equal weight from UW, while ADT was downgraded to Underweight from EW in business info service changes. The firm said while the low-to-no Ai disruption exposure kept their business services coverage in a relatively more favorable position (vs. Info), post earnings season and after the recent macro events the firm provides its latest thoughts, realign its PT's and move a few ratings as well. For FA, sees potential upside in the shares if employment stays resilient and likes its Self-help initiatives saying management made a compelling case on its Ai prowess.
• In CRO Sector: Barclay’s made several changes in the Contract Research Organization space by upgrading IQV to Overweight from Equal Weight as sees upside to the stock's valuation and estimates saying its history of execution should give the shares premium valuations vs late-stage peers. MEDP was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight citing valuation for the upgrade. AVTR was downgraded to Underweight saying sees less upside to shares vs the group. Meanwhile, BMO Capital said shares of IQV, ICLR on CRO Ai-driven selloff appears overdone noting Ai fears have spread to the CROs, weighing heavily on valuations across the group over the last ~four weeks as concerns primarily center on theoretical MT-LT disruptions to revs.
• In Chemicals: the sector has seen big moves higher this week amid the impact of the Iran conflict. DOW was upgraded to Overweight, $40 PT (from $26) at JP Morgan citing possible extended disruption to Shipping in the Middle East. The firm notes the EBITDA increase that stems from an event that dislocates a chemical or fertilizer market carries a capitalization multiple of one as a base case in JPMC's opinion. An event can tighten a market, then product prices rise, and when the effects of the event subside, the market returns to the status quo ante. Fertilizer names (CF, MOS, NTR, IPI) remain strong as US/Israel strikes on Iran have potential to bolster Nitrogen pricing for at least 1H26, providing further upside for North American producers, given the strain on LNG in the

• DAWN +65%; entered into a definitive agreement as Servier to acquire Day One for $21.50 per share in cash, representing a total equity value of approximately $2.5 billion, which represents a premium of approximately 68% over the closing price yesterday.
• IOT +15%; reported better Q4 results, beating across all metrics, highlighted by +30% ARR growth that accelerated slightly vs last quarter and saw NNARR growth accelerate for a third straight quarter.
• MRVL +16%; shares were upgraded by Citigroup, Bank America and Benchmark following their Jan Q beat with revenue of $2.22B (+7.0% q/q) modestly beating ests, driven by strong demand across the Data Center segment (+9% q/q), and boosted Q1 outlook, with $2.40B revenue midpoint (+8.2% q/q) +4.9% vs its prior $2.29B est.
• SWBI +14%; shares rise on higher sales as Q3 rose 17% y/y to $135.7M and said sees Q4 sales to rise 10%-12% over the year earlier

• GAP -13%; as the company forecast annual profit below estimates as sees adj EPS of about $2.20-$2.35 per share, below estimate of $2.32 and said sees tariff impact of 200 bps in Q1 gross margin
• UAL -4%; CEO Scott Kirby said in CNBC interview he expects a "meaningful" hit to the carrier's Q1 results from surging fuel prices following the deepening war in Iran, even as travel demand remains resilient. If the conflict prolongs, the airline could see an impact in the second quarter as well.
• WAL -14%; after saying in 8K it has been informed by JEF that $126.4M owed under forbearance pact won't be paid as agreed as firm files complaint vs Jefferies, Leucadia Asset Mgmt alleging breach of contract, fraud. The complaint related to commercial loan collateralized by accounts receivable purchased from First Brands.

Closing Recap

Friday, March 06, 2026

U.S. stocks end the day and week lower as a surprising jobs report and a spike in oil prices to highest levels in over 2 1/2 years was too much for investors to overcome heading into the weekend where the U.S./Iran conflict intensified on Friday and further disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting oil and other commodity supplies. Inflation fears and recession fears have grown the last few days given the massive sure in energy prices as U.S. WTI crude futures  climb over 12% today alone closing around $91 per barrel, the highest level since October 2023 on Mideast conflict. Lots of names were active this week on the surge in energy costs hitting discretionary names, airlines, truckers, leisure, restaurants, as consumer spending will likely be impacted. At the same time, energy stocks, chemicals, shippers, were among leaders most of the week. The U.S. said they will provide reinsurance for losses up to $20 billion in the Gulf region, to help provide confidence for oil and gas shippers during the war on Iran. Only Consumer Staples and Energy finished the day higher while Materials, Financials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the biggest losers. Technology stocks tumbled in the last 45 minutes of trading after the whole AI Infrastructure/Data Center complex fell sharply after Bloomberg reported that ORCL and OpenAI end plans to expand Texas data center site, while META is in discussion with developer Crusoe to lease the expanded site (shares of CRWV, BE, NVDA, IREN, RIOT, NBIS all tumbled sharply). Note CNBC later refuted to Bloomberg story, but stocks remains pressured. The VIX went out at the highs into the weekend, +24.8% to 29.64 - highest since 4-23-25.

The other big story today was the jobs data as the U.S. lost -92,000 jobs in February (the fewest jobs outside of a recession since 2003), far short of January's gain of 126,000 jobs and worse than the gain of +50,000 jobs that economists expected. The unemployment ticked slightly higher to 4.4% from 4.3%. Expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its June meeting increased after the jobs report, but that sent Treasury yields lower for the first time in 5 days and the dollar slipped. Recall the Fed trimmed its federal funds target rate range by three quarters of a percentage point last year to between 3.5% and 3.75% to help bolster a flagging jobs market while still keeping enough restraint on to lower inflation that has stood well above the Fed’s 2% target.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.02%, the Nasdaq declined 1.24%, and the Dow fell 3.01%. For the Dow industrials, register biggest weekly percentage decline since early April 2025, the S&P 500 records biggest weekly percentage drop since mid-October and the Russell 2000 records biggest weekly percentage drop since early August.

• January retail sales fell -0.2% vs. consensus -0.3%, while January Retail Sales Ex-autos unchanged, in-line with consensus; Jan gasoline sales -2.9% vs Dec -0.1%, Jan cars/parts sales -0.9% vs Dec -0.2%. Jan Retail Sales Ex-autos/gasoline +0.3% vs Dec +0.1% (prev unchanged). Jan Retail Sales Ex-gasoline +0.1% vs Dec unchanged.
• December business inventories +0.1%, in line with estimates. November revised to unchanged from +0.1%. Business sales +0.5% vs +0.6% prior. Retail inventories ex-autos revised up to +0.4% from +0.2%.

• Gold edged higher on haven demand as Middle East tensions escalated, but still posted a weekly decline, as inflation worries dimmed rate-cut expectations. April gold gained $80.00 or 1.55% to settle at $5,158.70 an ounce (down from last Friday closing prices of $5,247.90). The decline snapped a four-week winning streak, as fading prospects of interest rate cuts and a volatile dollar weighed on bullion. Front Month Comex Silver for March delivery lost $8.8660 per troy ounce, or 9.57% to $83.816 this week. Bitcoin prices bounced midweek, but right back down below $69,000 today and Ethereum below $2,000.

• U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday, dropping sharply after a government payrolls report fell well short of expectations and boosted views that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates at a quicker pace. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell -1.4 basis points to 4.131% after hitting a three-week high of 4.187% and rose 17bps this week. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, fell -4.5 basis points to 3.554%, after climbing to 3.631%, its highest since November 20…but rose 17.7bps this week.

• In Restaurants: DA Davidson initiated coverage of 14 restaurant companies across four key industry subsectors, with its favorite BUY-rated ideas being CMG, WING, and SHAK. They say given early signs of an improving industry backdrop and valuations near three-year lows, believes restaurant stocks are generally poised to outperform through the balance of 2026, though prefer brands with pricing power and lengthy development runways that can support robust long-term earnings growth algorithms.

• In Alt Managers/Asset Managers: BLK shares fell after the company limits withdrawals at flagship private credit fund following surge in redemption request. BLK's $26B HPS Corporate Lending Fund received withdrawal requests worth $1.2B in Q1, or roughly 9.3% of its net asset value. OWL shares fall after Bloomberg reported that the company has 36 million pound ($47.99M) exposure to collapsed UK property lender MFS https://tinyurl.com/2jc8s6z9 . Shares of peers such as APO, BX, CG, ARES, KKR saw early weakness.
• The default rate among U.S. corporate borrowers of private credit rose to a record 9.2% in 2025, according to a report Friday by credit rating agency Fitch Ratings. In its monitor of 302 companies with outstanding private credit debt, Fitch recorded 38 defaults among 28 different borrowers. The 9.2% default rate in 2025 follows a previous record 8.1% rate of defaults in 2024.

• In Insurance: PRU shares slumped after its Japanese subsidiary said that some workers assigned to contracted agencies improperly removed operational information and shared it with other employees. The co said 11 employees took operational information on 379 occasions at seven agencies and shared it internally.

• PACB downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays saying the shares have a "tough setup" over the near-term, and the firm sees potential for a demand pause in demand given competitive launches across the sequencing space.
• QURE shares posted a strong rebound
• In CRO Sector: Barclay’s made several changes in the Contract Research Organization space by upgrading IQV to Overweight from Equal Weight as sees upside to the stock's valuation and estimates saying its history of execution should give the shares premium valuations vs late-stage peers. MEDP was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight citing valuation for the upgrade. AVTR was downgraded to Underweight saying sees less upside to shares vs the group. Meanwhile, BMO Capital said shares of IQV, ICLR on CRO Ai-driven selloff appears overdone noting Ai fears have spread to the CROs, weighing heavily on valuations across the group over the last ~four weeks as concerns primarily center on theoretical MT-LT disruptions to revs.
• Medical Equipment: COO delivered Q1 results that finished in-line with Street's $1.02B (organic growth missed slightly) and beat consensus EPS of $1.03 by $0.07 on stronger-than-expected OM% while guidance was better but Piper noted offsetting these positives are other frustrating areas, namely new APAC challenges.

• In Airlines/Transports: it has been a rough week for the Dow Transports, with big declines in airlines (AAL, DAL, UAL) and trucking (CHRW, JBHT, ODFL) along with package delivery (UPS, FDX) as surging oil and gasoline prices threaten hits to earnings/lower margins. In airlines today, UAL CEO Scott Kirby said in CNBC interview he expects a "meaningful" hit to the carrier's Q1 results from surging fuel prices following the deepening war in Iran, even as travel demand remains resilient. If the conflict prolongs, the airline could see an impact in the second quarter as well, said Kirby at a university event on Thursday, the report said.
• In Shipping: DSX increased its all-cash offer to acquire GNK to $23.50 per share, up from its previous proposal of $20.60 per share submitted in November 2025. Also, SBLK said it has entered into a conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement to acquire sixteen vessels from DSX in deal valued at $470.5M, subject to Diana successfully acquiring all issued and outstanding shares of GNK, not already owned by Diana.
• In Aerospace & Defense: KRMN was upgraded  to Overweight at Piper and raising its tgt to $127 saying they see the company benefitting from a potential munitions Super Cycle where U.S. and Allies seek to rebuild 'magazine depth' for critical munitions by replenishing stockpiles, expanding production, and refreshing technology across a number of missile programs (following Iran conflict).

• Metals & Mining: Copper stocks FCX, SCCO, TECK came under pressure early following weaker copper prices due to high London Metal Exchange inventories. Copper was on course to shed 3.8% this week, its steepest dip since the week ended April 4, 2025. Precious metals prices rebounded given a pullback in the dollar/Treasury yields after the weaker jobs report raised hopes for a Fed rate cut by June.

• In Software: GWRE Q2 ARR growth of 22% to $1,121M beat guidance by 8M, above ~$7M avg beat over the last 8 quarters; NNARR of $58M in Q2 (vs $44M prior year) was driven by stronger-than-expected new sales. Total rev grew 24% Y/y in Q2 (vs 17-19% guide), driven by subs & support rev 33% Y/y, license rev decline of (7)% Y/y. IOT reported better Q4 results, beating across all metrics, highlighted by +30% ARR growth that accelerated slightly vs last quarter and saw NNARR growth accelerate for a third straight quarter.
• Semiconductors: the group was broadly lower after a massive run to start the year boosted the SOX to record highs a few weeks ago but has pulled back lately amid a rotation into beaten up software (IGV) stocks. MRVL a standout today behind better earnings/guidance as shares were upgraded by Citigroup, Bank America and Benchmark following their Jan Q beat with revenue of $2.22B (+7.0% q/q) modestly beating ests, driven by strong demand across the Data Center segment (+9% q/q), while Communications & Other grew +2% q/q; MRVL boosted Q1 outlook, with $2.40B revenue midpoint (+8.2% q/q) +4.9% vs its prior $2.29B estimate, with anticipated Data Center growth expected to continue leading. Memory stocks (SNDK, MU, WDC) shares tumbled late day after Bloomberg report that ORCL and OpenAI end plans to expand Texas data center site.
• Security Software: OKTA was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at BMO Capital given increased confidence in revenue growth durability and said believes identity management is critical for agent adoption, and it thinks Okta will be one of the companies that nurtures, and benefits from, agent growth.
• In Optical: after shares tumbled yesterday on better results and guidance, CIEN was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America and raised tgt to $355 from $260 saying after doing detailed analysis on the expected data center buildout, as well as following the recent spending outlook update by the Cloud Titans, the firm now believes its call was too early.

Street Recommendations

Friday, March 6, 2026

• REGN Barclays initiated coverage of Regeneron with an Overweight rating and $923 price target. The shares are "fundamentally mispricing" the company's profits from Dupixent over the near- and medium-term, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays also believes Regeneron's pipeline opportunities are undervalued at current share levels, particularly Lynozyfic. The firm views Dupixent indication expansion as an "underappreciated tailwind" for the company.
• UNF Barclays upgraded UniFirst to Equal Weight from Underweight with a $250 price target.
• ADT Barclays analyst Manav Patnaik downgraded ADT Inc. to Underweight from Equal Weight with a $7 price target.
• OKE Barclays analyst Theresa Chen raised the firm's price target on Oneok to $82 from $76 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after meeting with management. Oneok's "diversified footprint and significant operating leverage position the company to capture upside from incremental gas demand across lower-tier basins over time," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• COO Barclays raised the firm's price target on Cooper Companies to $103 from $98 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company posted improving sequential growth in Vision and Surgical, offset by declines in older lower-margin hydrogel products in Japan. It views the shares as attractive at current levels.
• VSCO Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih lowered the firm's price target on Victoria's Secret to $67 from $80 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported Q4 results that beat across the board, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm recommends buying the shares on weakness.
• AVTR Barclays analyst Luke Sergott downgraded Avantor to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $8.50, down from $9. The firm says that when investors come back to the tools space, they are going to go to "large-cap bellwethers that have been caught up in the AI craze." Avantor's business is seeing share losses, a lack of investment, and questions if " management can right the ship," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes investors will not look to the shares when they come back to tools.
• CERT Barclays downgraded Certara to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $8. The company's need greater investment across more of the business to accelerate core growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes the market is showing little valuation support for Certara's type of business.
• IQV Barclays upgraded Iqvia to Overweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $210. The firm sees upside to the stock's valuation and and estimates. Iqvia's history of execution should give the shares premium valuations versus the company's late-stage peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MEDP Barclays upgraded Medpace to Equal Weight from Underweight with an unchanged price target of $500. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade. Medpace continues to win business and potential disruption from faster burning business rolling off fis likely to be much more limited in scale than imagined, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PACB Barclays downgraded PacBio to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $1.50, down from $2. The shares have a "tough setup" over the near-term, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays sees potential for a demand pause in demand given competitive launches across the sequencing space. As such, PacBio could see an "air pocket on consumables" in the first half of 2026 as customers wind down research in anticipation of SPRQ NX, contends the firm.

• COST BMO Capital analyst Kelly Bania raised the firm's price target on Costco to $1,315 from $1,175 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. The firm believes that the stock should remain a core holding, noting that its Q2 earnings were robust and stand out as consistently strong in the retail landscape marked by more volatility of execution and turnarounds.
• IOT BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Samsara to $44 from $40 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. The company's momentum with enterprise customers continued with record $1M annual contract value deals in a quarter as relationships outside of telematics deepen, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm continues to see an attractive trajectory for estimates amid broader software worries, BMO added.

• HAYW BofA upgraded Hayward to Buy from Underperform with a price target of $19, up from $15. Hayward has navigated a challenging period in the pool industry and is now positioned to gain share in a stabilizing market, says the analyst, who expects the company to expand margins through price increases and productivity gains.
• CIEN BofA upgraded Ciena to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $355, up from $260. After doing analysis on the expected data center buildout, as well as following the recent spending outlook update by the Cloud Titans, the firm now believes its recently-published cautious note on the networking sector was "too early" with key Cloud players, including Hyperscalers, Tier-2 Clouds and Neoclouds, adding significant data center capacity in the next three years.
• SKT BofA analyst Samir Khanal downgraded Tanger to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $39 as the firm now sees more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in retail REITs following the stock having returned 10.9% over the past month. Tanger's current AFFO multiple "looks rich" versus malls and shopping centers, despite comparable mid-single-digit NOI and FFO growth, the analyst added.

• GWRE BTIG analyst Allan Verkhovski raised the firm's price target on Guidewire to $200 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered a clean beat and raise quarter, also highlighting how it is well positioned with AI, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PGNY BTIG analyst David Larsen lowered the firm's price target on Progyny to $30 from $35 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat and below consensus guidance. The company delivered good growth excluding previously announced client transition, and the sell-off in the stock seems overdone, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that on the call the management has highlighted that through Q1 member engagement has remained healthy.
• IOT BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Samsara to $45 from $55 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results and guidance. The company saw annualized recurring revenue growth accelerating to 30% in constant currency, a higher magnitude of upside vs. consensus, and FY27 growth and margin framework were above consensus, which should serve as a reminder that Samsara remains one of the most durable and efficient growers in software, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• AMPX Cantor Fitzgerald raised the firm's price target on Amprius Technologies to $20 from $16 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Amprius' outlook is improving as the company continues to execute against a growing demand pipeline, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Strong demand for its SiCore battery technology and access to roughly $600M in cell manufacturing capacity support expectations for accelerating customer re-orders and growth through 2030, the firm says.

• IDYA Citi placed an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on shares of Ideaya Biosciences while keeping a Buy rating on the name with a $65 price target. Citi sees a favorable share setup into the Phase 2/3 data OptimUM-02 trial expected in late March in HLA*A2-negative metastatic uveal melanoma.
• WVE Citi analyst Samantha Semenkow opened an "upside 30-day catalyst watch" on shares of Wave Life Sciences while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $30 price target. Citi sees share upside on the company's WVE-007 data in obesity patients. It believes a positive readout could increase strategic interest in WVE-007.

• MRVL Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $100 from $90 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Marvell's stock is expected to trade higher following stronger Q1 guidance and a constructive outlook for its data center business, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company raised its CY27 data center revenue growth outlook to 50% year over year, including 100% growth in custom compute, and expects roughly 40% total company revenue growth with more than $5.00 in non-GAAP earnings power, improving medium-term visibility, the firm says.

• DOW JPMorgan upgraded Dow Inc. to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $40, up from $26. The firm believes polyethylene prices can move "sharply" higher in the near term due to higher energy prices. The energy price environment has become inflationary because of the Iran conflict and the restriction of oil and polyethylene shipments from the Mideast through the Strait of Hormuz, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan sees Dow's EBITDA moving higher from dislocations in the chemical market.
• MRVL JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $135 from $130 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported solid January quarter results, driven by accelerating data center demand, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan is "impressed" with Marvell's multi-year revenue outlook and the diversity of its customer program ramps. It sees a solid share setup for 2026.

• BRLT KeyBanc analyst Ashley Owens last night downgraded Brilliant Earth to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target following the Q4 report. The firm says margin risk overshadows the company's fundamentals. Brilliant Earth's EBITDA margins are expected to face further pressure this year due to elevated precious metal prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note. KeyBanc believes the stock's near-term risk/reward has become less favorable.
• IOT KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Samsara to $41 from $40 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Samsara reported very strong Q4 results, beating across all metrics, and saw NNARR growth accelerate for a third straight quarter. The company continues to display strong momentum with large customers, emerging products, and international penetration, leading to FY27 guidance coming in solidly ahead of Street estimates. KeyBanc remains encouraged by Samsara's diversified end-market exposure and multiple durable growth drivers.

• MRVL Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $103 from $95 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Results were strong, guidance moved higher again, and management sounded incrementally confident in the durability of the cycle, says the analyst, who adds that near-term strength is being driven by interconnect, aligning with what the firm has been hearing across the AI infrastructure supply chain.

• ITRI Needham initiated coverage of Itron with a Buy rating and $124 price target. Itron holds a "structurally dominant position" in North American smart metering with 35% of the installed base and 64% of network endpoints and is "at the center" of a multi-year Advanced Metering Infrastructure 2.0 replacement cycle, the analyst tells investors. While near-term organic growth is "modest," the firm sees a long-term margin target reset and cross-sell into the current customer base as "catalysts not in consensus," the analyst added.

• INTU Northcoast analyst Kartik Mehta upgraded Intuit to Buy from Neutral with a $575 price target.

• COOK Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Traeger to 75c from $1.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following Q4 earnings. While Q4 came in better than expected, 2026 was guided well below estimates for both Sales and EBITDA. Q1 was also guided below estimates.
• EARN Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love lowered the firm's price target on Ellington Credit to $5.50 from $6 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes core EPS missed estimates. Management also commented that the challenging CLO equity and mezzanine debt backdrop has persisted into 2026, but Ellington Credit increased its credit hedges ahead of spread widening and believes there is room to take advantage of market dislocations.
• IOT Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Samsara to $39 from $37 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes shares were up over 10% after-hours as NNARR came in well-above expectations upon another quarter of acceleration, which this along with the current pipeline has given management confidence to raise the guide by about 3% compared to the prior "de-risked" setup. Even with this raise, Piper still sees guide as conservatively setup and Samsara well-positioned within this market to cross-sell into its installed base and land new customers across multiple verticals and geographies.

• CIEN Rosenblatt analyst Mike Genovese raised the firm's price target on Ciena to $350 from $305 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the earnings report. The firm cites the company's scale across date center for the target boost.

• CLAR Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Clarus to $6 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's thesis of underappreciated brand assets persists despite what it calls "relatively disappointing" Q4 results and a FY26 outlook that calls for flattish revenue growth, but better margin development.
• MRVL Stifel raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $120 from $114 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following a slight January quarter beat and raised April quarter outlook, the firm believes the report provides "validation of Marvell's execution and investments," supported by its meaningfully higher guidance for FY27 and FY28.

• CIEN UBS analyst David Vogt raised the firm's price target on Ciena to $285 from $230 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Ciena (CIEN) reported a strong quarter and raised its FY26 revenue outlook by 4 points, driven by broad demand across optical products and strong orders from customers such as Meta (META), but the beat and guidance increase were largely anticipated, and expected upward revisions to FY26-FY27 estimates may be offset by valuation compression, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PVH UBS lowered the firm's price target on PVH Corp. to $120 from $148 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm remains bullish on PVH's ability to drive big earnings growth over the long-term as it implements its self-help initiatives, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CYTK UBS raised the firm's price target on Cytokinetics to $69 from $61 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Analysis of the nHCM program modestly improves the perceived probability of success for the ACACIA trial to about 50%, though the upcoming Q2 readout remains a binary catalyst due to disease complexity and a mixed patient population, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Early signs from the oHCM launch, such as rapid REMS certification, suggest encouraging momentum, but meaningful updates are unlikely until later in 2026, the firm says.
• OSK UBS raised the firm's price target on Oshkosh to $197 from $167 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Estimates and the price target are increased on greater conviction in a rebound in U.S. non-residential construction through 2027, supported by accelerating construction starts, improving rental equipment demand, and rental rates reaching their highest levels in over two years, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• WVE Wedbush analyst Yun Zhong raised the firm's price target on Wave Life Sciences to $35 from $33 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. After last week's Q4 update reaffirmed that all 2026 catalysts remain on track, the firm had an opportunity to discuss with management about the pathway to approval for WVE-007. According to management, statistically significant body weight reduction of equal or less than 5% vs. placebo at 12 months, based on the FDA draft guidelines on drug development for weight reduction, with improved body composition, should be sufficient to support an FDA approval. The discussion also let the firm believe that the Q1 2026 study update this month should show sustained reduction of Activin E expression and fat loss at 240mg at six months, and higher reduction in both total and visceral fat at 400mg at three months.

• BURL Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Burlington Stores to $400 from $350 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While Q4 itself was solid, the story is all about Burlington's outlook, the firm says. As a company that consistently guides cautiously and plans for the worst, Burlington cited a very bullish view heading into 2026, with both external and internal drivers to upside.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: ARQ CASY CHRS FLNT HPE KRO LFMD MTN MYO NPWR RAIL RPAY STXS VOYG YEXT ZVRA

• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media, internet & Telecom Conference, 3/9-3/11, in Palm Beach, FL

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for February
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE crop report
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $58B in 30 year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ASM AVAV BBCP BODI CDRE DOMO EVLV FNV FOA GRPN IDT JOYY LDI NATR ORCL SO SIGA WEST

• Cantor Technology Conference, 3/10-3/11
• Citizens Life Sciences Conference, 3/10, in Miami, FL
• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media, internet & Telecom Conference, 3/9-3/11, in Palm Beach, FL
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Financials Conference, 3/10-3/11, in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI, Ex: Food & Energy M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI, Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $42B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal Budget for February

• Earnings After the Close: ARIS ASTL BMBL CDXS CINT CURI DMRC DSGC DSP FOSL FTK HPK NOA NTSK NVGS ODC PATH SFIX SID TBBB TLYS TTGT VEL WLTH WOOF

• Cantor Technology Conference, 3/10-3/11
• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media, internet & Telecom Conference, 3/9-3/11, in Palm Beach, FL
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Financials Conference, 3/10-3/11, in New York
• Stifel NYC technology 1-on-1 Conference, 3/11 in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $25B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ABX ADBE ALLO ANGX AOUT APEI AVO BZFD CVGW EVCM FNKO GDOT HCAT JCAP JYNT KRMD KRT LEN LMNR LOCO LPRO MAPS MNR NKTR OFRM PD PXLW QRHC RBRK RWAY S SKIN RBCH TTAN ULTA VERI VUZI VXRT WPM ZUMZ

• Bank America Information & Business Services Conference 3/12, in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Y/Y for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2^nd estimate for Q3
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending 2^nd estimate for Q3
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q3 2^nd estimate
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices for Q3-preliminary
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Prices for Q3-preliminary
• 10:00 AM ET                 JOLTs Job Openings for January
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence for March-prelim
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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