Early Look

Friday, May 15, 2026

Following a jump in Treasury yields, a spike in oil prices and a sell-off in Asian markets on inflation fears, U.S. futures are looking lower on this final day of the trading week, but still on track for a 7^th straight week of gains. Global stock markets had earlier appeared to shake off inflation concerns tied to the Iran conflict, with enthusiasm around artificial intelligence powering a rally and keeping major indexes on track for weekly gains. But inflation fears arise overnight in Japan with “hotter” PPI data, sending US yields higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising over 8 bps to 4.541%, its highest level since early June 2025 and the 2-yr yield jumps 6.6 bps to 4.058%. Gold and silver prices tumble 2.6% and 7% respectively while oil prices jump over 3.5% as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, heightening concerns over global energy supplies. The odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates by 25 basis points in December have more than doubled over the past week to about 40%, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool after hotter CPI, PPI readings. The pullback in global stock markets comes a day after the Dow reclaimed 50,000 and the S&P 500 (SPX) topped 7,500 for the first time, while the tech heavy Nasdaq outperformed them both in another strong finish for stocks on Thursday, with new record highs attained again on surging AI investment demand by Wall Street investors. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -1,244 points or 2% to 61,409, the Shanghai Index fell 42 points or 1% to 4,135, the Hang Seng Index dropped -426 points to 25,962 and the South Korean Kospi slumps more than 6.5%. In Europe, the German DAX is down -378 points to 24,077, while the FTSE 100 is down -144 points to 10,228. Investors also closely watched the U.S.-China summit, which wrapped up on Friday with no major breakthrough. The yen was on the weaker side of 158 per dollar and the euro fell to a one-month low of $1.1632 and was set to lose more than 1% this week.  Sterling touched its weakest in five weeks against the dollar, dropping to 1.3345.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 370.26 points, or 0.75%, to 50,063.46
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 232.88 points, or 0.88%, to 26,635.22
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 19.16 points, or 0.67% to 2,863.09

• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for April…est. +0.3%
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization M/M for April…est. 75.8%
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• OPEC+ monthly crude oil production fell to a new five-year low in April. Eighteen of the 22 OPEC+ members participating in the group’s production cut deal recorded output below quota levels for the ninth consecutive month.

• KinderCare Learning (KLC) Q1 adj EPS $0.04 vs est ($0.01), adj EBITDA $52.1Mm vs est $46.8Mm on revs $672.5Mm vs est $669.2Mm; guides FY revs $2.7-2.75B vs est $2.71B, adj EBITDA $215-235Mm and adj EPS $0.15-0.25 vs est $0.15.
• Papa John’s (PZZA) shares rose overnight after Reuters reported Investment firm Irth Capital is working with Papa John's largest U.S. franchisee, who operates roughly 10% of domestic stores, on a potential take-private deal that would include a significant investment from franchise operator Nadeem Bajwa https://tinyurl.com/4c5yc6ea
• Hyatt Hotels Corp (H) files for offering of up to 8.4M shares of Class A common stock by the selling stockholders

• Boeing (BA) shares slumped -4.7%, its largest fall in six months, after Trump told Fox News that China would order 200 Boeing aircraft, its first order in nearly a decade. In March media reports indicated a deal for 500 737 Max jets was possible.
• Unusual Machines (UMAC) Q1 EPS $0.21 vs est $0.14 on revs $8.1Mm vs est $5.03Mm, gr mgn approx 33%.
• Virgin Galactic (SPCE) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.81) on revs $227K vs. est. $190K; said raised $11M in Q1 via share issuance and maintains strong cash position; expects Q2 free cash flow of (-$87M-$92M) but sees sequential improvement in quarterly CFC rest of ’26; says flight testing remains on track for Q3 2026, first spaceflight for Q4 2026; offers up to $40.2M in securities for at-the-market offering program.

• Figma Inc. (FIG) Q1 adj EPS $0.10 vs est $0.06 on revs $333.4Mm vs est $313.2Mm; guides Q2 revs $348-350Mm vs est $327Mm; sees FY revs $1.422-1.428B vs est $1.36B and adj EBIT $125-135Mm with adj EBIT mgn 9% at midpoint.
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) Q1 revs rose 42% y/y to $50.3M vs. est. 449.3M; Q1 EPS loss (-$0.93) vs. est. loss (-$1.03); Q1 Transaction revenue remained stable y/y at $24.1M; Q1 Exchange revenue decreased 27% y/y to $17.2M, reflecting lower spot trading activity/lower crypto market volumes, with total trading volume declining to $6.3B from $13.5B y/y; Q1 OTC revenue increased to $6.3Mn from $0.1M in Q1 2025
• StoneCo Ltd (STNE) Q1 Total revenue & income R$3.58B vs. R$3.36B y/y and consensus R$3.5B; Q1 adj. net income: R$549.1M vs. R$530.7M y/y (+3.5%) and Q1 adj. EBT R$641.0M vs. R$653.4M y/y (-1.9%); Q1 Subscription & equipment rental revenue R$251.8M vs. R$215.9M y/y (+16.7%); Q1 adj. GM 41.6% vs. 44.4% y/y.
• Wex (WEX) announces $1B shares repurchase program.

• Dexcom (DXCM) says it has agreed to collaborate with Elliott Investment Management, one of Dexcom's largest investors, to identify two new independent members to join the company's board. The two independent directors with medtech and operations experience to be named at a later date.
• Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON) Q1 adj EPS $0.14 vs est $0.09 on revs $24.3Mm vs est $22.31Mm; guides FY revs exceed $120Mm vs est $113.8Mm with at least 30% adj EBITDA mgn.
• Heartflow (HTFL) Q1 adj EPS ($0.16) vs est ($0.19) on revs $52.587Mm vs est $49.71Mm, adj gr mgn 80.5%; guides FY revs $228-232Mm vs est $220.41Mm and adj gr mgn approx 81%.

• Applied Materials (AMAT) Q2 adj EPS $2.86 vs est $2.68 on revs $7.91B vs est $7.647B, adj gr mgn 50%, adj EBIT mgn 32.1%; guides Q3 revs $8.45-9.45B vs est $8.089B and adj EPS $3.16-3.56 vs est $2.88; expects their Semiconductor Equipment business to grow more than 30% in calendar 2026.
• Blaize Holdings (BZAI) Q1 adj EBITDA ($13.9)Mm on revs $2.7Mm vs est $10.1Mm; guides FY revs approx $130Mm vs est $125.73Mm, adj EBITDA ($50.0)Mm - ($45.0)Mm.
• Cerebras Systems (CBRS) surged more than 68% on Thursday in a highly anticipated public debut by an Nvidia (NVDA) competitor. Shares surged 68% to close at $311.07 after reaching an intraday high of $385 each. The stock opened at $350, nearly double its IPO price of $185.
• Globant (GLOB) Q1 revs $607.1M vs/ est/$601.7M; Q1 adj EPS $1.5, in-line with consensus; Q1 gross margins 34.5%; vs. 34.9% y/y; guides Q2 adj EPS $1.45-$1.55 vs. est. $1.55 and revs $610-$616M vs. est. $613.3M.
• Bill Ackman says Pershing Square made Microsoft (MSFT) “a core holding” after it began building the position in February. He says Microsoft “offers compelling value.”
• Rumble (RUM) Q1 EPS ($0.12) vs est ($0.09) on revs $25.5Mm vs est $25.98Mm; avg MAUs 56Mm +8% sequentially.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, May 15, 2026

U.S. stocks seeing its first notable pullback on renewed inflation fears (though has been paring losses since the open), but major averages still on track for 7^th straight week of gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Today is option expiration and seeing a little unwind most likely following several days of weaker breadth and purely big tech (semi stocks and Mag7) doing all the heavy lifting as the S&P 500 (SPX) topped 7,500 for the first time Thursday and the Dow reclaimed the 50K level. Seeing just a modest pullback off record highs yesterday after hotter PPI data in Japan echoed what was seen earlier this week in the U.S. from CPI/PPI data as high energy costs take its toll. The US dollar jumps and Treasury yields hit multi month highs (weighing on precious metals). Early weakness in many S&P sectors with Energy and Financials the lone leaders. Smallcap Russell 2000 down over 2% as the sector is seen the hardest hit on fears of rising rates/yields.

The U.S./China summit between President Trump/Xi ended without any joint announcements on specific deals, or any broader communiqué covering trade or other matters, but both sides celebrated the visit as a reset in relations. Some top items out of summit include: Trump said he didn’t discuss tariffs, the NVDA H200 chips topic did not come up, said he talked with Xi about possibly working together on Ai; Trump notes on Iran: notes he's ok with Iran suspending Nuclear program for 20 years but has to be a 'real' commitment. Xi warned against a potential clash with the U.S. over the self-ruled island Taiwan that Beijing claims as its own. Trump invited Xi to the White House on Sept. 24

Inflation fears arise overnight in Japan with “hotter” PPI data, sending US yields higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising over 11-bps to 4.571%, its highest level since early June 2025 and the 2-yr yield jumps 8 bps to 4.075%. Gold and silver prices tumble, while oil prices jump over 2.5% as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, heightening concerns over global energy supplies. The odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates by 25 basis points in December have more than doubled over the past week to about 40%, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool after hotter CPI, PPI readings.

Oil prices higher but pare gains: The United Arab Emirates will double its capacity to export crude oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by next year, as it seeks to reduce reliance on the shipping chokepoint. The crucial Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with efforts to end the war in limbo and disruptions that have upended global markets set to linger. President Trump said the US and China share common goals for ending the Iran war, while Beijing struck a measured tone in urging further diplomacy.

• April industrial production rose +0.7% (vs. consensus +0.3%) and vs March -0.3%; April mining output -0.1% (March -1.6%), Utilities output +1.9% (March -1.4%). Capacity use rate 76.1% (consensus 75.8%) vs March 75.7% (previous 75.7%) and April manufacturing output +0.6% (consensus +0.2%) vs March +0.1%.
• Japan's Producer Price Index surged 4.9% y/y in April (above est. 3.0%, prev. 2.9%), the highest since 2023, with m/m at 2.3% (vs. est. 0.8%, prev. 1.0%). The acceleration was driven by petroleum and coal products, consistent with the Hormuz energy shock. Import prices jumped 17.5% y/y (vs. prior 8.0%) with petroleum/coal/gas again a main factor and export prices ran at 18.9% y/y (vs. prior 12.2%).

• In Trucking/Logistics: CHRW was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup saying the SCOTUS Montgomery decision adds complexity but benefits scale; but with its recent sell-off from its February peak offering upside as it moves into its target return range with opportunity for share gains. RXO was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel saying Supreme Court ruling creates an opening; sees a more favorable setup emerging into the balance of 2026, with the company positioned at the intersection of improving Brokerage fundamentals and healthy idiosyncratic levers.
• Industrials: JP Morgan downgraded ALLE to neutral and AOS to Underweight and upgraded TKR to Neutral in Smallcap Industrials saying Q126 results revealed clear sector divergences within SMid Cap Industrials: the group rose 14.5% YTD, with Automation (+41.7%) and E&C (+2.2%) outperforming, Specialty down (-4.0%), and Building Products lagging (–4.9%) amid cost inflation and weak housing. Reflecting these shifts, JPMC upgrades TKR from UW to N as execution improved and sector momentum rotated and downgrades ALLE from Overweight to N due to margin and construction headwinds, and shift AOS to UW, taking a more cautious sector stance given its China and residential exposure.

• CHRW +1%; was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup saying the SCOTUS Montgomery decision adds complexity but benefits scale; but with its recent sell-off from its February peak offering upside as it moves into its target return range with opportunity for share gains.
• DXCM +4%; after the company gave long-term growth outlook at its investor day that impressed analysts. While activist investor Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company and struck a settlement that will put two Independent directors on the board.
• FIG +11%; impressive Q1, with rev growth of 46% Y/y, a rev beat of 5.5% (strongest beat by far since the IPO), and NDR of 139% (highest in 2+ yrs); Q2 rev growth guidance midpoint for 40% Y/y was 9 pts ahead of consensus and raised the FY26 rev growth midpoint to 35% Y/y (vs. ~30% prior).
• GEMI +24%; reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and its founders injected $100 million into the business. The investment was made by Winklevoss Capital Fund at $14 per share, with payment in bitcoin; Q1 Exchange revenue decreased 27% Y/y to $17.2M.
• GLOB +17%; Q1 revenues came in ahead of expectations, while EPS was in-line with estimates, growth was driven by its Ai-integrated delivery resonating with clients, driving growth with its top client clients (top 50 grew 5.2%), and margins were impacted by ~100bps due to FX.
• PZZA +5%; Reuters reported Investment firm Irth Capital is working with Papa John's largest U.S. franchisee, who operates roughly 10% of domestic stores, on a potential take-private deal that would include a significant investment from franchise operator Nadeem Bajwa https://tinyurl.com/4c5yc6ea
• RXO +11%; was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel saying Supreme Court ruling creates an opening; sees a more favorable setup emerging into the balance of 2026.

• AARD -26%; after saying the FDA placed a full clinical hold on its drug to treat extreme hunger linked to the rare disorder Prader-Willi syndrome, halting all late-stage trials (shares downgraded at BTIG and Morgan Stanley on news).
• AMAT -2%; despite strong quarter and beat and raise as semis seeing some profit taking early; AMAT reported better than expected Q2 and provided Q3 outlook above the Street as guides Q3 revs $8.45-9.45B vs est $8.089B and adj EPS $3.16-3.56 vs est $2.88.
• DLO -8%; posted mixed quarterly results as revs beat but EPS came up short of consensus estimates; Q1 EPS $0.14 vs. $0.15 est.; Q1 revs rose 55% y/y to $335.9M vs. est. $333.1M.
• FRMI -5%; after being downgraded at Evercore ISI on the power plant development company to in line from outperform after recent executive departures.
• GAMB -39%; shares tumble after Q1 miss and lower guide; Q1 EBITDA came in below Street tests, resulting in a 2026 guide down largely driven by EU regulatory headwinds and a continued poor SEO environment; announced  a ~25% workforce reduction and recently announced mgmt succession plan
• HL -8%; Precious metal miners (gold and silver) AG, AEM, CDE, B, PAAS, WPM and more saw notable declines following a rout in silver and gold prices as Treasury yields surged and the dollar extended weekly gains on rising inflation concerns and rising chances of Fed rate hikes given recent bout of economic data.
• POET -8%; after earnings results and following secondary (enters $400M Offering Agreement For 19M Shares With Single Institutional Investor) announcement.
• VIK -2%; downgraded at Morgan Stanley while raising its estimates and price target (to $86) on the back of a stronger 2027 booking curve more than offsetting near-term cost pressures. The change comes as their bull thesis has largely played, leaving a more balanced risk reward and fairly valued stock.
• YSS -18%; shares fell despite Q1 revs rising 9% to $116M, above consensus $109.6M and still see FY26 revenue $545M-$595M, compared to consensus $567.74M.

Closing Recap

Friday, May 15, 2026

U.S. stocks end Friday lower following renewed inflation fears, soaring Treasury yields, and higher oil prices on this option expiration Friday…but the S&P 500 still finished the week higher, a 7^th straight week of gains, though the Nasdaq slipped, snapping its 6-week win streak. On the day, Energy (XLE) was the lone sector higher up 2% (and up 6.7% on the week) with oil prices climbing, while Technology (XLK) was down on day, but +0.4% on the week. Due to the fact of the heavy weighting in tech, major averages closed higher despite several rising inflation reports (CPI, PPI in the US and PPI in Japan overnight spiked), boosting Treasury yields to highest levels in months (on long and short end) and the dollar gained 1% on the week, pushing metals lower. The Smallcap Russell 2000 index fell over 2% amid rising interest rate hike fears given this weeks data. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -1,244 points or 2% to 61,409 after higher PPI inflation data, the Shanghai Index fell 42 points or 1% to 4,135, the Hang Seng Index dropped -426 points to 25,962 and the South Korean Kospi slumps more than 6.5%. In Europe, the German DAX is down -378 points to 24,077, while the FTSE 100 is down -144 points to 10,228. Semiconductors (SOX) slid after record highs this week, while software (IGV) posted a day of strength led by MSFT. In other news, a day after the biggest IPO of the year in Cerebras (CRBS) 30M shares deal opened at $350 in Nasdaq debut Thursday vs $185 IPO price, traded as high as $385 before falling under $300 today, Reuters reported Friday Elon Musk's rocket and satellite maker SpaceX (SPCX) is planning to price its blockbuster IPO as early as June 11 and has picked Nasdaq as its listing venue.

Interesting stats: U.S. equity fund inflows surged to a three-week high in the week to May 13. According to LSEG Lipper data, investors pumped up a net $22.37B into U.S. equity funds in their largest weekly net purchase since $27.97B of inflows in the week to April 22. Inflows to U.S. large-cap funds of $17.06B were the largest in six weeks. Mid-cap and small-cap funds, however, had net outflows of $1.25B and $2.53B, respectively. The technology sector gained record weekly net investments of $8.51B, while financials faced an outflow of $1.37B - Reuters per LSEG Lipper data. @Bluekurtic noted on X, “S&P 500 just logged its 18th ATH of 2026 and 7th in May. Since 1950, only 3 other years saw $SPX make 7+ May highs and each delivered double digit returns: 1995: +34.1%, 2013: +29.6%, 2017: +19.4%”

• April industrial production rose +0.7% (vs. consensus +0.3%) and vs March -0.3%; April mining output -0.1% (March -1.6%), Utilities output +1.9% (March -1.4%). Capacity use rate 76.1% (consensus 75.8%) vs March 75.7% (previous 75.7%) and April manufacturing output +0.6% (consensus +0.2%) vs March +0.1%.
• Japan's Producer Price Index surged 4.9% y/y in April (above est. 3.0%, prev. 2.9%), the highest since 2023, with m/m at 2.3% (vs. est. 0.8%, prev. 1.0%). The acceleration was driven by petroleum and coal products, consistent with the Hormuz energy shock. Import prices jumped 17.5% y/y (vs. prior 8.0%) with petroleum/coal/gas again a main factor and export prices ran at 18.9% y/y (vs. prior 12.2%).

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $105.42/bbl, up $4.25, or 4.20% while Brent crude advanced $354 or 3.35% to settle at $109.26 per barrel as renewed escalation fears and mixed signals from Tehran drove the move. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the NYMEX rose 6.7 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $2.961 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 27.  Front Month Nymex Crude for June delivery gained $10.00 per barrel, or 10.48% this week, up 5 of last 6 sessions.

• The advance in the greenback this week comes as U.S. Treasury yields continue to ascend, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note reaching 4.581%, its highest in a year, following several economic data points earlier this week pointed to rising price pressures with the Strait of Hormuz largely shuttered due to the Iran war. Treasury yields broadly on both the long end and short end of the curve.
• The 2-year yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, was up 9 basis points at 4.082%, the highest since March 2025 (up 19bps this week). The yield on Benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 13.4 basis points to 4.59%, the highest since May 2025 (up 23 bps this week). The 30-year bond yield rose 11.5 basis points to 5.127%, also the highest since May 2025 (up 18bps this week).

• Off price Retail Q1 earnings preview (BURL, TJX, ROST) at Deutsche bank says sentiment towards off-price retail remains positive with elevated Q126 SSS expectations saying this reflects tailwinds from stimulus in the US and increased value-seeking behavior, which combine with company-specific SSS initiatives and easier compares. The firm remains constructive on ROST and TJX, which it believes are best positioned for estimate upside from the incremental consumer transaction, while it remains sidelined on BURL as it waits for more consistent execution.
• Apparel & Footwear Retail: BOOT reported a FQ4 beat with EPS of $1.45 (vs. cons $1.42) and comps of +6.1% (vs. cons +4.2%). Comp growth was driven by Retail comp of +5.2% and E-comm comp of +14.1%. Gross margin of 36.3% (-80bps y/y) beat consensus of 36.1%; FQ4 comp growth of +6.1% included monthly comps of: +6.7% in January, +7.7% in February, and +4.5% in March. LULU shares fall for a 6th straight day and at lowest levels since December 2018.

• Casino & Gaming: GAMB shares tumble after Q1 miss and lower guide; Q1 EBITDA came in below Street tests, resulting in a 2026 guide down largely driven by EU regulatory headwinds and a continued poor SEO environment; announced  a ~25% workforce reduction and recently announced mgmt succession plan.

• In Utilities & Power: FRMI was downgraded at Evercore ISI on the power plant development company to in line from outperform after recent executive departures; CNP filed mixed shelf offering; FE was upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen saying it faces less risk than peers.

• Consumer Finance: COF 30+ day performing delinquencies rate for Auto 4.02% at April end, April Auto net charge-offs rate 1.20%, April domestic credit card net charge-offs rate 4.94% and 30+ day performing delinquencies rate for domestic credit card 3.44% at April end. Citigroup (C) said credit card charge-offs 2.11% in April and credit card delinquency rate 1.4% at April end.
• Crypto sector: GEMI shares jump after the crypto exchange reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and its founders injected $100M into the business. The investment was made by Winklevoss Capital Fund at $14 per share, with payment in bitcoin; Q1 Exchange revenue decreased 27% Y/y to $17.2M, reflecting lower spot trading activity/lower crypto market volumes, with total trading volume declining to $6.3B from $13.5B Y/y. MSTR said to buy back $1.5B of 2029 convertible notes for about $1.38B
• Financial Services: WEX announces $1B share repurchase program; announces David Foss as Chair of the board effective immediately

• TNGX downgraded to neutral at Piper and cut tgt to $16 from $24 after reported Q126 earnings yesterday that conveyed a potential change in development strategy for vopimetostat in PDAC.
• Insulin sector: DXCM shares bounced after the company gave long-term growth outlook at its investor day that impressed analysts. While activist investor Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company and struck a settlement that will put two Independent directors on the board.

• Industrials: JP Morgan downgraded ALLE to neutral and AOS to Underweight and upgraded TKR to Neutral in Smallcap Industrials saying Q126 results revealed clear sector divergences within SMid Cap Industrials: the group rose 14.5% YTD, with Automation (+41.7%) and E&C (+2.2%) outperforming, Specialty down (-4.0%), and Building Products lagging (–4.9%) amid cost inflation and weak housing. Reflecting these shifts, JPMC upgrades TKR from UW to N as execution improved and sector momentum rotated and downgrades ALLE from Overweight to N due to margin and construction headwinds, and shift AOS to UW, taking a more cautious sector stance given its China and residential exposure.
• In Aerospace & Defense: Reuters reported SpaceX picks Nasdaq as listing venue for its initial public offering IPO and to price as early as June 11, set to list shares on June 12 under the symbol “SPCX”. BA shares extend declines after falling over 4% Thursday after President Trump confirmed China agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes, with a potential commitment of 750 planes; YSS shares fell despite Q1 revs rising 9% to $116M, above consensus $109.6M and still see FY26 revenue $545M-$595M, compared to consensus $567.74M. In Defense sector: BWXT was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank saying time with management during a multi-day NDR this week shows the company remains focused on disciplined execution, strict program management, mission focus, and long-term strategic planning. In drones, UMAC Q1 revenue came in well ahead of Street expectations

• IT Services & Consulting: GLOB Q1 revenues came in ahead of expectations, while EPS was in-line with estimates, growth was driven by its Ai-integrated delivery resonating with clients, driving growth with its top client clients (top 50 grew 5.2%), and margins were impacted by ~100bps due to FX.
• Optical sector: AAOI shares fell after enters equity distribution agreement of up to $600M common stock with Raymond James and Needham; POET slides after earnings results and following secondary (enters $400M Offering Agreement For 19M Shares With Single Institutional Investor) announcement.
• Data Infrastructure: VRT was initiated at Buy and $500 tgt at Loop Capital as believes this is just the beginning for this best-of-breed technology innovator that has already built intriguing fly-wheel effects and has had the arms of the Gen Ai “Cool Kids Club” wrapped around it.
• Networking & Equipment: ANET upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at Raymond James based on its view that sales/growth improves in 2027 and beyond as Arista expands into new applications like scale-across and gains share in the Ai backend and campus. Also sees thematic Ai growth vectors emerging that play to Arista's strengths: inference and reasoning workloads, MoE/expert-parallel models.
• Semi equipment: AMAT reported better than expected Q2 and provided Q3 outlook above the Street as guides Q3 revs $8.45-9.45B vs est $8.089B and adj EPS $3.16-3.56 vs est $2.88; the company expects semi business to grow 30%+ vs prior 20%+ expectations in 2026 with 80% of the Y/Y WFE growth to be driven by Ai driven leading edge F/L, DRAM, and advanced packaging markets and a similar profile in 2027.

Street Recommendations

Friday, May 15, 2026

• AMAT Barclays analyst Tom O'Malley raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $500 from $450 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the earnings report. The company's 2026 equipment growth estimate was bumped up to over 30% with the "overarching tone among the best we have heard," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GOOS Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Canada Goose to $9 from $10 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares post the fiscal Q4 report. The company's constant currency sales growth of 18% beat the consensus estimate of 8%, partially due to a wholesale order shift, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm says the mix shift negatively impacted gross margin, contributing to an earnings miss. Barclays sees risk to Canada Goose's fiscal 2027 outlook due to macro challenges.
• NVMI Barclays analyst Tom O'Malley raised the firm's price target on Nova to $600 from $465 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the Q1 report. Nova highlighted strength in advanced DRAM investment with expectations to outperform mid-teens wafer fab equipment growth in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RGNX Barclays analyst Eliana Merle lowered the firm's price target on Regenxbio to $12 from $37 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm thinks further updates on FDA interactions and clarity on the regulatory pathway in Duchenne muscular dystrophy will be needed for investors to get more confident on RGX-202.
• SCHW Barclays raised the firm's price target on Charles Schwab to $127 from $117 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's fiscal 2026 revenue and expense guidance is ahead of consensus, implying earnings ahead of Street estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• VRT Barclays raised the firm's price target on Vertiv to $412 from $345 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company's earnings "bull case" of $1, $2, $3, and $4 of earnings per share over fiscal 2027 to 2030 seems intact post the earnings report.

• MDB BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman raised the firm's price target on MongoDB to $360 from $285 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. In analyzing the competitive state of the database market with a focus on AI, the firm believes that MongoDB and Postgres tend to win in different use cases, and both can be successful at acquiring AI workloads, the analyst tells investors in a research note. MongoDB is well-positioned in the database market and has durable growth potential, the firm added.

• VRT BofA raised the firm's price target on Vertiv to $440 from $370 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm argues that a premium is warranted given above-peers earnings growth.
• BOOT BofA analyst Christopher Nardone lowered the firm's price target on Boot Barn to $206 from $224 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported Q4 results in line with the firm's expectations, but it is lowering its multiple due to the derating in consumer growth company multiples. However, the firm argues that Boot Barn shares are "too cheap for this growth."
• CPB BofA lowered the firm's price target on Campbell's to $20 from $23 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Ahead of Campbell's report over the next few weeks, the firm keeps estimates "largely stable near term," but resets FY27 lower given a more challenging cost backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• SJM BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm's price target on J.M. Smucker to $130 from $135 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of the company's earnings report over the next few weeks, the firm keeps estimates "largely stable near term," but resets FY27 lower given a more challenging cost backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• HRL BofA lowered the firm's price target on Hormel Foods to $23 from $27 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Ahead of the company's earnings report over the next few weeks, the firm keeps estimates "largely stable near term," but resets FY27 lower given a more challenging cost backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• AMAT BofA raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $540 from $465 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company delivered "record" April quarter revenue and EPS and guided July quarter revenue and EPS "a solid" 10% and 17% ahead of consensus, respectively. Following the report, the firm is taking up its calendar year 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates by 14% and 18%, respectively.
• NIQ BofA lowered the firm's price target on NIQ Global to $16 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. "Solid" Q1 execution is being overshadowed by growth concerns and "mixed guidance flags near term caution," the analyst tells investors.

• LUNR Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Intuitive Machines to $41 from $24 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said the bottom-line inflected positive during the quarter, beating its estimate by about 128%, while the topline missed our expectations by about 18%. They said the NASA moon base, Andromeda, and Golden Dome will drive their expasion in the second half of the year.
• YETI Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Yeti to $42 from $40 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following its Q1 beat and raise results while 2026 guidance was increased, given Q1 sales momentum, despite it being a seasonally small quarter.

• LCID Citi analyst Michael Ward lowered the firm's price target on Lucid Group to $14 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a Q1 miss and pulled its 2026 outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, Citi believes Lucid's medium term plans are intact, and sees inflection points into 2027 with production starting at the new Saudi production plant and decline in capital spending.
• AMAT Citi raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $550 from $520 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a better than expected quarter and will see accelerating sales growth in 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites increased earnings visibility for the target bump.
• ZM Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised the firm's price target on Zoom Communications to $122 from $106 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the company has a path to mid- to high-single digit growth. Zoom contact center partner checks continue to improve and its web traffic has returned to year-over-year growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi views Zoom as well positioned into the Q1 report.
• STNE Citi downgraded StoneCo to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $11, down from $18. Citi also added a "downside 90-day catalyst watch" on StoneCo. The company price adjustments will lead to a deceleration in volumes, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi also expects StoneCo to see weakness in take rates due to rising competitive pressure. The firm sees recent trends in payments as indicating the "fragility for the standalone merchant acquiring business model."

• UNTY DA Davidson initiated coverage of Unity Bancorp with a Buy rating and $68 price target. Unity Bancorp has built a strong organic growth engine characterized by above-peer net interest margins, efficient operations, and solid capital generation, with stable credit trends and expectations for healthy loan and deposit growth in 2026 driven by its relationship-focused middle-market lending strategy, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ORRF DA Davidson initiated coverage of Orrstown Financial with a Neutral rating and $41 price target. Orrstown Financial Services is viewed as a stable community bank with a strong deposit franchise, diversified lending base, and consistent credit performance, with leadership transitioning to new CEO Adam Metz in June expected to make 2026 a relatively transitional year as strategic priorities are reassessed but without a major shift in the underlying business model, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CCNE DA Davidson analyst Jake Civiello initiated coverage of CNB Financial with a Neutral rating and $34 price target. CNB Financial operates a multi-brand regional banking model under a single charter, with growth historically driven by both acquisitions and de novo bank launches, though 2026 may face net interest margin pressure and ongoing integration challenges from the ESSA acquisition even as forward EPS trends remain positive, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• AMAT Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $520 from $390 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Applied Materials is expected to hold recent gains after a strong quarter and above-Street guidance, with management's raised outlook for over 30% semiconductor equipment growth in CY26 reinforcing confidence in its growth trajectory and supporting a potential valuation re-rating as concerns around China market share give way to improving mix from foundry, DRAM, and advanced packaging demand, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GLOB Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Globant to $60 from $68 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Globant is expected to trade higher after a solid quarter with reiterated 2026 guidance and improving sequential revenue outlook, supported by early traction in its "AI Pods" initiative and a sizable future annual recurring revenue opportunity, though near-term growth visibility remains constrained by a still-soft macro environment and uneven demand across its core client base, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ALLE JPMorgan downgraded Allegion to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $150, down from $170. The firm cites the company's margin and construction headwinds for the downgrade. Despite Allegion's multiple trading below historical averages, there are more compelling opportunities elsewhere in the building products group, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TKR JPMorgan upgraded Timken to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $130, up from $110. The firm cites the company's improved execution and sector momentum for the upgrade. Timken's current guidance is conservative and it has surpassed near-term expectations with "robust execution" ahead of its investor day, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• VRRM JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Verra Mobility to $17 from $19 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the smaller cap industrials group post the Q1 reports. As macro uncertainty continues, JPMorgan emphasizes "selectivity and a focus on resilient end-markets and visible growth drivers," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• EXPO JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Exponent to $80 from $95 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the smaller cap industrials group post the Q1 reports. As macro uncertainty continues, JPMorgan emphasizes "selectivity and a focus on resilient end-markets and visible growth drivers," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ORN JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Orion Group to $19 from $16 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the smaller cap industrials group post the Q1 reports. As macro uncertainty continues, JPMorgan emphasizes "selectivity and a focus on resilient end-markets and visible growth drivers," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CHRW JPMorgan added C.H. Robinson to the firm's Analyst Focus List while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The Supreme Court's Montgomery vesus Caribe Transport ruling exposes brokers to the same negligent hiring liability as carriers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes smaller truckload carriers and brokers will exit the market over time as this expanded liability will generate higher compliance and insurance costs. JPMorgan believes the market is underappreciating C.H. Robinson's structural advantages of scale in a post-Montgomery environment.
• DELL JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Dell Technologies to $280 from $205 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm cites the reversal of memory related concerns for the recent rally in the IT hardware group. Heading into the earnings prints, JPMorgan is most positive on Dell Technologies and HP Enterprise. It believes earning estimate increases will reinforce the companies' medium-term earnings growth outlooks and return the shares to valuation multiples "more appropriate for the medium-term earnings growth outlook."
• HPE JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on HPE to $37 from $27 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm cites the reversal of memory related concerns for the recent rally in the IT hardware group. Heading into the earnings prints, JPMorgan is most positive on Dell Technologies and HP Enterprise. It believes earning estimate increases will reinforce the companies' medium-term earnings growth outlooks and return the shares to valuation multiples "more appropriate for the medium-term earnings growth outlook."
• HPQ JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee raised the firm's price target on HP Inc. to $22 from $19 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm cites the reversal of memory related concerns for the recent rally in the IT hardware group. Heading into the earnings prints, JPMorgan is most positive on Dell Technologies and HP Enterprise. It believes earning estimate increases will reinforce the companies' medium-term earnings growth outlooks and return the shares to valuation multiples "more appropriate for the medium-term earnings growth outlook."
• AAP JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers lowered the firm's price target on Advance Auto Parts to $59 from $64 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in retailing group as part of a Q1 earnings preview. Tax stimulus more than offset the headwind from energy prices in the quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, JPMorgan expects very little guidance revisions considering the largest seasons, back to school and holiday, are ahead in a "high uncertainty" backdrop.

• AMAT Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $502 from $454 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Applied Materials delivered "another strong beat and raise... and more," with upside across multiple fronts, the analyst tells investors. 2026 is "shaping up to be an exceptional year," adds the analyst, who is raising the firm's full-year systems growth forecast to 34.2% from 28.6%.
• KEYS Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Keysight Technologies to $305 from $268 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Last quarter's concern around acquisition dilution has faded after fiscal Q1 order/revenue strength and Q2 guidance, the analyst tells investors in a preview. However, while the setup has improved, expectations are no longer low and Keysight likely needs to put up about a $50M beat, or $1.75B revenue, and raise full year growth guidance to something closer to about 25% to sustain momentum, the analyst argues.

• PANW Oppenheimer analyst Ittai Kidron raised the firm's price target on Palo Alto Networks to $275 from $245 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after attending CyberArk's Impact 2026 customer conference. At the event, Palo Alto rebranded CyberArk to Idira, positioning it as a next-generation identity security platform. Idira will integrate with Strata, Cortex, and Prisma AIRS, bringing first-party identity detection and dynamic fine-grained privilege controls to humans, machines, and AI Agents. At the event, Oppenheimer conducted a customer survey that indicated uninterrupted renewal activity and strong spending expectations. All respondents were positive or indifferent on the Palo acquisition, with no indicators of churn. Overall, Impact 2026 reinforces the firm's positive view of Palo Alto's pivot into identity/agentic identity security.

• BBWI Piper Sandler assumed coverage of Bath & Body Works with a Neutral rating and $20 price target. The firm acknowledges the stock is inexpensive trading at about seven times 2026 EPS guide that should have upside considering comparisons get easier after Q1 2026 and $250M in cost savings. With that said given the lack of visibility into the turnaround, with innovation not expected until the second half of 2026 and limited clarity on the direction of the new product, the stock could stay range bound in the near term. Longer term, Piper likes Bath & Body Works' strong brand awareness and vertically integrated supply chain that helps drive agility and scale, while the industry across key categories Body care, Soap & Sanitizers and Home Fragrance appears to be healthy. The firm's bull vs. bear range on the stock is $25-$15.
• BIIB Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Biogen to $225 from $214 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Biogen announced that its Phase II study evaluating BIIB080, the company's tau-directed antisense oligonucleotide, in patients with mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease, did not meet its primary endpoint, which was dose-response per Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes at week 76. Management noted that the lowest dose was the best performer in terms of slowing of clinical decline. One ideally would want a clear dose response relationship, Piper argues. That said, with management pointing to a slowing of clinical decline at all doses, and with a relatively favorable safety profile, the firm believes further advancement is justified.
• FIG Piper Sandler analyst Billy Fitzsimmons lowered the firm's price target on Figma to $30 from $35 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported an impressive Q1, with revenue growth of 46% year-over-year, a revenue beat of 5.5%, and net dollar retention of 139%. The Q2 revenue growth guidance midpoint of 40% year-over-year was a sizable nine points ahead of consensus, which pushes back on the view AI competition will materially impact the growth rate near-term. Management raised the FY26 revenue growth midpoint to 35% year-over-year. Piper continues to believe Figma is one of the few app layer names that can deliver strong upside to numbers.
• BOOT Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Boot Barn to $226 from $230 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following a solid Q4 print and FY27 guidance. While shares are off year-to-date and have been under pressure as of late on concerns of recent sales weakness, Q4 showed comparable sales upside, and the first six weeks of Q1 are running with a solid comp of up 5%, the firm says. Boot's sales strength remains broad-based, and the company has not seen any weakness across its income cohorts from higher gas prices. Piper believes Q1 and FY27 guidance looks appropriately conservative.

• JSPR TD Cowen downgraded Jasper Therapeutics to Hold from Buy without a price target. The company is "now at a critical juncture," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Jasper has $14M cash with a current burn rate of $11M in Q1. While the company wrapped up all non-chronic spontaneous urticaria programs and has weaned down to 16 employees, this only provides up to two quarters of cash, and could hinder its ability to execute, contends TD. The firm sees risk that Jasper will not be able to raise sufficient capital.

• VNOM Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Viper Energy to $61 from $60 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's revised framework reflects a more constructive macro view and differentiated operational flexibility, the firm says. While reduced buyback visibility remains debated, Wells views modest growth and incremental deleveraging as disciplined capital allocation.
• AMAT Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $520 from $435 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company delivered another positive beat / impressive guide, while highlighting extended eight quarters rolling visibility. Trading at a discount to peers, Applied Materials remains Wells top semi cap pick as the firm believes shares can continue to re-rate higher.
• CELC Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Celcuity to $183 from $150 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm thought the company's recent updates were compelling. Gedatolisib's subcutaneous formulation could expand first line opportunity by addressing IV limitations. Wells' focus remains on gedatolisib's second line phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase mutant data at ASCO.
• CCAP Wells Fargo analyst Finian O'Shea lowered the firm's price target on Crescent Capital BDC to $12 from $13 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The new Gold Standard fee for public BDCs could shine through with a turn in credit, the firm says.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long term-TIC Flows for March

• Earnings After the Close: AGYS FATN YALA

• Waste Expo 2026, 5/18 in Washington, DC

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for April
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AUNA CAVA EARN EDUC EGHT JHX KEYS MOVE RRGB TOL XELB ZTO

• Deutsche Bank Global Auto industry Conference, 5/19-5/20, in New York
• JP Morgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, 5/18-5/20, in Boston, MA
• RBC Capital Global Healthcare Conference 5/19/5/20, in New York
• RBC Capital Canadian Industrials Conference 5/19-5/21, in Toronto
• Truist 27th Annual Truist Securities Financial Services Conference, 5/19-5/20 in New York

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: BORR ELF ENS INTU NDSN NVDA SBLK STEP URBN

• Cantor Oncology Day 5/20, in New York
• Deutsche Bank Global Auto industry Conference, 5/19-5/20, in New York
• JP Morgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, 5/18-5/20, in Boston, MA
• RBC Capital Global Healthcare Conference 5/19/5/20, in New York
• RBC Capital Canadian Industrials Conference 5/19-5/21, in Toronto
• Truist 27th Annual Truist Securities Financial Services Conference, 5/19-5/20 in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for May
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, May-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, May-flash
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for May

• Earnings After the Close: BULL CAE CPRT DECK FLO RAMP ROST TTWO WDAY ZM

• RBC Capital Canadian Industrials Conference 5/19-5/21, in Toronto

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 10:00 AM ET                 Leading Index Change M/M for April
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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