Early Look
Monday, March 9, 2026
Futures | Up/Down | % | Last |
Dow | -559.00 | 1.18% | 46,958 |
S&P 500 | -71.25 | 1.06% | 6,672 |
Nasdaq | -281.50 | 1.14% | 24,389 |
U.S. futures are trading lower given the meteoric move in oil prices last night, with WTI crude surging more than 30% at one point last night alone above $119 per barrel before paring gains this morning to around $102 per barrel (+13%), with airlines, materials and industrials seeing overnight weakness. S&P futures (Spuz) hit an overnight low of 6,584.50, more now nearly a 100 point bounce at 6,677, down about -1%. The sell-off in stocks followed a bruising stretch last week, where the S&P 500 fell -2.02%, the Nasdaq declined -1.24%, and the Dow fell -3.01%. For the Dow industrials, register biggest weekly percentage decline since early April 2025, the S&P 500 records biggest weekly percentage drop since mid-October and the Russell 2000 records biggest weekly percentage drop since early August. The declines came as inflation and recession fears rose amid a spike in energy prices. The biggest sector movers to the downside last week were some of the biggest winners in 2026, with Consumer Staples (XLP) -4.7%, Healthcare (XLV) -4.63%, and Industrials (XLI0 down -4.06%. Only Energy (XLE) was positive on the week rising +1.17%. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) went out at the highs into the weekend, +24.8% to 29.64 - highest since 4-23-25.
Oil prices have been a key driver for stock markets to the downside, with massive moves again last night as WTI crude rises 13% at $103 per barrel, but well off the overnight highs $119.48. WTI Crude oil jumps 17% overnight to $106.78 after futures for April jumped more than 12% Friday to reach $91 per barrel, its highest level since late 2022, and for the week posted an astounding 36% spike, its biggest weekly gain since the inception of the West Texas Intermediate oil contract in March 1983. Brent crude tops $107 per barrel after jumping roughly 9% Friday to hover around $93 per barrel to its highest level since late 2023. Overnight, WTI crude topped $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022. Commodity markets watching closely as OPEC nations reduce production as the war escalates between the U.S./Iran and supplies across the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for oil shipments, get disrupted. Over the weekend, we have output reduction beginning in earnest, with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. On the other, we have strikes on infrastructure, which in turn raise concerns about a lengthy recovery.
In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index plunged -2,892 points or 5.2% to settle at 52,728, the Shanghai Index fell -27 points to 4,096, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -348 points to 25,408. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average tumbled as much as 4,200 points, or 7.6%, to a two-month intraday low. In Europe, the German DAX is down -400 points to 23,186, while the FTSE 100 is down -134 points to 10,150.
A busy week ahead with several macro catalysts on the horizon (outside of the obvious U.S./Iran war), including a busy week of US economic data: February CPI, key for Fed rate expectations, trade balance, weekly jobless claims, the January core PCE price index, personal income, durable goods, and the second estimate of Q4 GDP. Federal Reserve policymakers are in a blackout period ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. China has an eventful week with February CPI and PPI on Monday, followed by January-February trade data on Tuesday. In corporate level news, relatively quiet though Oracle (ORCL) earnings are key for a software sector that has been trying to rebound on AI fears the last few weeks. Oracle shares fell late Friday after Bloomberg reported late day that the software giant and OpenAI have abandoned plans to expand a flagship artificial intelligence data center in Texas after negotiations dragged over financing and OpenAI's changing needs. The plan is part of the Stargate initiative, a project of up to $500B and 10GW.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
Economic Calendar for Today
Earnings Calendar:
Other Key Events:
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
Nymex | 11.39 | 102.29 |
Brent | 104.78 | 12.12 |
Gold | -46.10 | 5,109.10 |
EUR/USD | -0.0058 | 1.1560 |
JPY/USD | 0.63 | 158.43 |
10-Year Note | +0.051 | 4.182% |
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
Energy, Industrials and Materials
Healthcare
Technology, Media & Telecom
Mid-Morning Look
Monday, March 09, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -776.51 | 1.63% | 46,725 |
S&P 500 | -87.66 | 1.30% | 6,652 |
Nasdaq | -239.59 | 1.07% | 22,149 |
Russell 2000 | -59.98 | 2.41% | 2,464 |
U.S. stocks are pressured again as surging energy prices overnight extend losses on Wall Street for stocks, metals & mining, transport stocks and consumer discretionary names, exacerbating inflation and recession fears as hostilities in the Middle East entered their tenth day. Geopolitical tensions deepened after Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ali Khamenei, as the supreme leader, signaling firm control of hardliners in Tehran. Crude prices shot up more than 30% overnight to just under $120 a barrel but eased as governments, including those part of the Group of Seven (G7) and Saudi Arabia, began discussions to limit the jump in energy costs through increased supply. The pullback in stocks and rise in oil comes after the S&P posted its worst weekly performance since October amid pressures from the evolving Iran war. European markets are down after a lower Asian session (though finished well off the lows). Treasuries selling off again was the 10-year rises more than 5 bps early near 4.2% after jumping 17bps last week in a flight to haven bonds while the dollar extends its gains, pressuring gold prices. There are no major US economic data points today but picks up with CPI inflation data and PCE inflation data this week along with GDP. No major earnings today as most sectors are volatile given their impact from surging oil markets/supply concerns as shipping lanes stall.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 12.01 | 102.91 |
Brent | 12.05 | 104.74 |
Gold | -75.30 | 5,083.40 |
EUR/USD | -0.0053 | 1.1565 |
JPY/USD | 0.55 | 158.31 |
10-Year Note | 0.023 | 4.156% |
Sector Movers Today
Stock GAINERS
Stock LAGGARDS
Closing Recap
Monday, March 09, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | 239.25 | 0.50% | 47,740 |
S&P 500 | 55.93 | 0.83% | 6,795 |
Nasdaq | 308.27 | 1.38% | 22,695 |
Russell 2000 | 28.38 | 1.12% | 2,553 |
Wild markets, absolutely wild! It looked like a bloodbath overnight with Nasdaq futures down over -2.3% and S&P futures down over -1.5% as global stock markets reacted to the sharp spike in oil futures overnight, with a more than 30% spike for WTI and Brent crude to highs around $120 as the war headlines between Iran and the U.S./other countries escalated this weekend. However, by the time traders rolled in this morning, the losses had been cut in half and oil prices, while still up over double digit %, had pulled back to around $100 per barrel. The rally was on from there as stocks picked up steam around 10:00 AM ET, with Healthcare and Technology stocks recovering and Industrials, Materials and Consumer Discretionary names, seen as the ones hardest hit by higher energy prices, also cut their losses. Tech bounced off key support levels as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dipped near its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025 (low of day was $591.33 vs 200dma around $589.20), but ended around $607, while the Philadelphia Semi Index (SOX) held its 100dma support at 7,423 which hasn’t been below since May 2025. The Nasdaq turned positive early afternoon, and the S&P 500 came close before slipping, until….some late day headlines from President Trump, saying he thinks the war could be over soon (4-5 week time frame) citing CBS reported, pushed markets broadly high late day and into positive territory as the rally was complete. The Nasdaq surged more than 300 points on those headlines (more than 600 off opening morning lows), and the S&P 500 approached 6,800 again (off 6,636 lows). The moves came as oil prices crumbled with futures falling over 10% post settlement to around $85 per barrel.
Oil prices have been a key driver for stock markets to the downside, with massive moves again last night hitting overnight highs $119.48 (prices soar as much as 31% before paring gains on FT report that G-7 will discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves). April futures jumped more than 12% Friday to reach $91 per barrel, its highest level since late 2022, and for the week posted an astounding 36% spike, its biggest weekly gain since the inception of the West Texas Intermediate oil contract in March 1983. Over the weekend, Israel escalated its military campaign by targeting Iranian oil and energy infrastructure, including major storage depots, for the first time since the conflict began. The spike came as conflict in Iran spurred crude-producing countries to cut output, already curbed by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Kuwait confirmed unspecified production cuts.
A busy week ahead with several macro catalysts on the horizon (outside of the obvious U.S./Iran war), including a busy week of US economic data: February CPI, key for Fed rate expectations, trade balance, weekly jobless claims, the January core PCE price index, personal income, durable goods, and the second estimate of Q4 GDP. Federal Reserve policymakers are in a blackout period ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. China has an eventful week with February CPI and PPI on Monday, followed by January-February trade data on Tuesday. In corporate level news, relatively quiet though Oracle (ORCL) earnings are key for a software sector that has been trying to rebound on AI fears the last few weeks. Oracle shares fell late Friday after Bloomberg reported late day that the software giant and OpenAI have abandoned plans to expand a flagship artificial intelligence data center in Texas after negotiations dragged over financing and OpenAI's changing needs. The plan is part of the Stargate initiative, a project of up to $500B and 10GW.
Commodities, Currencies and Treasuries
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 3.87 | 94.77 |
Brent | 6.27 | 98.96 |
Gold | -55.00 | 5,103.70 |
EUR/USD | 0.0004 | 1.1623 |
JPY/USD | -0.06 | 157.73 |
10-Year Note | -0.037 | 4.099% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:
Energy & Industrials
Financials
Biotech & Pharma:
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
Aerospace & Defense
Materials, Metals & Mining
Internet, Media & Telecom
Not offered or endorsed by Regal Securities
Street Recommendations
Monday, March 9, 2026
B. RILEY
BARCLAYS
BERNSTEIN
BOFA
CANACCORD
CITI
DEUTSCHE BANK
GOLDMAN SACHS
GUGGENHEIM
JPMORGAN
MORGAN STANLEY
NORTHLAND
PIPER SANDLER
RAYMOND JAMES
RBC CAPITAL
SCOTIABANK
STIFEL
SUSQUEHANNA
TD COWEN
TRUIST
UBS
WELLS FARGO
WOLFE RESEARCH
Rating abbreviations…
***OP = Outperform
***SP = Sector Perform
***UP = Underperform
***OW = Overweight
***EW = Equal-weight
***UW = Underweight
***Report powered by thefly.com***
What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar
Monday March 9th
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Tuesday March 10th
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Wednesday March 11th
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Thursday March 12th
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Friday March 13th
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