Early Look

Thursday, March 26, 2026

U.S. futures are lower overnight and oil prices climbed (WTI above $93 Brent near $106 per barrel) as the US and Iran offered conflicting comments on efforts to end the war that’s closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, impacting supply chains and stoked concerns of a global energy crisis. Even as President Trump pushes for talks to end the war against Iran, the U.S. has ordered thousands of troops to the region, fueling fears ahead of an end of week deadline for Iran to come to terms. Iranian foreign minister said yesterday Tehran was reviewing a U.S. proposal but had ​no intention of holding talks to wind down the war. Last night, the WSJ reported Israel faced a barrage of missiles while several Gulf countries said they were responding to incoming missiles and drones, as Iran pressed its attacks in the region into the morning. Israel said it had conducted wide-scale strikes targeting Iranian regime infrastructure. Also, Russian attacks overnight hit four energy facilities in Ukraine's southern Odesa region, knocking out power to some residents, energy company DTEK said on Thursday. All these headlines are leading to more uncertainty and a lower open as the stock market remains beholden to every headline out of the White House or Iran pertaining to the war, as the QQQ and the SPY have both closed 4 straight days closed below their respective 200dma, while the DIA managed a close above the 200dma today and the IWM to this point never breached below 200dma all this time. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -145 points to 53,603, the Shanghai Index fell -42 points to 3,889, and the Hang Seng Index tumbled -479 points to 24,856. In Europe, the German DAX is down -280 points to 22,677, while the FTSE 100 is down -100 points to 10,003.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 305.43 points, or 0.66%, to 46,429.49
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 167.93 points, or 0.77%, to 21,929.83
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 30.96 points, or 1.24% to 2,536.41

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.851M
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for March…prior 10

• Earnings After the Close: AGX BTGO CV LSF OXM SLND VERI WKSP WPRT XOS

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -17.7% vs -21.6% last week. Bulls rise to 32.1% from 30.4%, Neutrals rise to 18.1% from 17.6%, Bears fall to 49.8% from 52%.

• MillerKnoll (MLKN) Q3 adj EPS $0.43 vs est $0.45 on revs $926.6Mm vs est $941.96Mm, gr mgn 38.1%, adj EBIT mgn 5.7%; guides Q4 sales $955-995Mm vs est $993.2Mm, gr mgn 38.5-39.5%, adj EPS $0.49-0.55 vs est $0.61.
• Next PLC shares rose after the U.K. clothing retailer maintained its fiscal-year sales-growth expectations, despite warning that the Iran war could affect costs, prices and consumer demand; said it had accounted for 15 million pounds ($20 million) in additional costs--including fuel and air freight--tied to the Middle East conflict.

• Ecolab (ECL) to acquire CoolIT Systems, a global leader in liquid data center cooling, from KKR (KKR) in a transaction valued at $4.75 billion. The sale will represent one of KKR's largest recent realizations, generating approximately 15x the original equity invested, inclusive of distributions
• EnerSys (ENS) announced a strategic manufacturing realignment to enhance operational efficiency. As part of this initiative, EnerSys will close its legacy lead-acid battery manufacturing facility in Tijuana, Mexico, and transition the majority of production to its existing proprietary advanced Thin Plate Pure Lead plant in Springfield, Missouri, leveraging its investments to expand capacity within its U.S. manufacturing network.
• HB Fuller (FUL) Q1 adj EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.56; Q1 revs $771M vs. est. $781.5M; Q1 adj net income $32M vs. est. $30.5M; guides FY EPS $4.55-$4.90 vs. est. $4.52 and adj Ebitda $645M-$675M vs. est. $642.3M; sees Q2 net revenue expected to be up low single digits and adj Ebitda in range of $175M-$185M.
• Karman Holdings (KRMN) Q4 revenue rose 37% y/y to $134.49M vs. est. $132.6M; Q4 adj EPS $0.06 and Ebit $21M; guides FY adj Ebitda $207M-$218M.
• Nucor (NUE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS saying the recent excessive correction presents a buying opportunity as the firm thinks U.S. steel producers are largely insulated from the Iran conflict.
• Worthington Steel (WS) Q3 adj EPS $0.27 vs est $0.43, adj EBIT $20Mm vs est $29.2Mm on revs $769.8Mm vs est $882.95Mm.

• Jefferies (JEF) Q1 EPS $0.70 vs. est. $0.96; Q1 total revs $2.02B vs. est. $2.07B; board increased share buyback authorization to $250M; said it had $17M in losses related to collapsed British lender Market Financial Solutions and bankrupt U.S. auto-parts supplier First Brands; Q1 investment banking net revenues rose 45% to $1.02B y/y.

• Celcuity (CELC) Q4 adj EPS ($0.73) vs est ($1.04); Outperform Exp $49.2Mm; cash and equivalents expected to finance operations through 2027
• Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) said it has secured a contract award valued at approximately $54M to deliver CNJ-016 the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), part of the U. S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), for smallpox preparedness.
• Precigen (PGEN) FY EPS ($1.37) vs est ($0.88) on revs $9.68Mm vs est $17.04Mm.

• Navan Inc. (NAVN) Q4 adj EPS $0.02 vs est ($0.12) on revs $177.9Mm vs est $162Mm, adj gr mgn 72%; guides Q1 revs $204-206Mm vs est $187.74Mm and adj EBIT $4.5-5.5Mm vs est ($11.13)Mm and adj EBIT mgn 2% at midpoint; sees FY revs $866-874Mm vs est $838.71Mm, adj EBIT $58-62Mm vs est $13.53Mm.
• Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) said it intends to invest up to $100 million in the UK to accelerate quantum computing development, which will be the Company's first major investment outside of the US. With this investment, the Company plans to deploy a quantum computer with over 1,000 qubits in the next 3 to 4 years.
• Shares of computer memory and storage makers slumped a second day after Google (GOOGL) said its new TurboQuant technology can limit the amount of memory required to run large language models by at least a factor of six, reducing the overall cost of training artificial intelligence (MU, SNDK, WDC shares fell yesterday).
• Nvidia (NVDA) backed startup Reflection is in discussions to raise $2.5B at a valuation of $25B, Berber Jin and Kate Clark of The Wall Street Journal reported.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, March 26, 2026

U.S. stocks off to another bumpy start as comments from President Trump on the Iran situation this morning, and an Iran response to the 15 point plan released yesterday by the U.S. has markets on edge again. Safe to say, the two sides appear far apart ahead of weekend where the President has warned would be a deadline. This morning, President Trump said on Truth Social media platform, “"The Iranian negotiators are very different and “strange.” They are “begging” US to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly State that they are only “looking at our proposal.” WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty! President DJT". Iran formally responded to a U.S. proposal via intermediaries and is awaiting a reply, according to a source cited by Tasnim News Agency. Tehran’s conditions include an end to hostilities, guarantees the war won’t resume, clear reparations, and a ceasefire across all fronts and Allied groups. It also insists its control over the Strait of Hormuz is a legal right and a safeguard for any agreement. The official said it was "one-sided and unfair", a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday, adding that a path forward might still be found if realism prevailed in Washington.

The WSJ reported late yesterday that President Trump told aids privately that he aims to end the month-long Iran conflict within his four-to-six-week timeline, viewing it as entering its final stages. At the same time late Wednesday, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi rejected reports of talks with the US, saying that “any ceasefire without guarantees” would not end the cycle of war. “We have no intention of negotiating,” he said. There are other stories moving a handful of names (details below), but big losers early are technology, industrials and communications while Energy, and defensive sectors like REITs and Consumer Staples rise, and financials (XLF) up a 5^th straight day. The market continues to monitor the situation with Iran and higher energy costs and no deal still weigh on global markets.

• In REITs: In Apartment REITs, Morgan Stanley downgraded AVB to Equal Weight, $203 PT (from $208) while upgrading EQR to Overweight, $74 PT (from $72) as new analysis has cities outperforming suburbs. Apartment REITs are high-quality, W/ strong balance sheets, at cheapest relative valuations ever (ex. COVID), stepping up buybacks, & sentiment skewed negative. Analysis of Urban vs suburban trends shows cities outperforming, in some cases for the first time in years. Favors EQR W/ most Urban exposure, upgrade to OW. Reiterate Overweight MAA as continues recommending regional barbell approach; downgrade AVB to EW as growth lags in '26/'27.
• In Chemicals: FUL with mixed Q1 results as EPS beat but revs missed; ECL to acquire CoolIT Systems, a global leader in liquid data center cooling, from KKR (KKR) in a transaction valued at $4.75 billion; CE files for mixed shelf; size not disclosed; SMG was downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan as expects Scott to pay more for its raw Materials in F2027 (ends September) than it is likely to pay for them in F2026 as Urea prices, diesel prices, and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) are all likely to be higher in F2027.
• In Metals & Mining: U.S. mining stocks fell and energy stocks rose as attacks in the Middle East continued and US President Donald Trump warned Iran to get serious about discussions “before it is too late.” NUE was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS saying the recent excessive correction presents a buying opportunity as the firm thinks U.S. steel producers are largely insulated from the Iran conflict; WS reported Q3 results below consensus as Q3 adj EPS $0.27 vs est $0.43, adj EBIT $20Mm vs est $29.2Mm on revs $769.8Mm vs est $882.95Mm.

• KOD +50%; after saying its experimental drug Zenkuda met the main goal in a late-stage study in patients with diabetes-related eye damage. In the trial, 62.5% of patients who received Zenkuda achieved at least a two-step improvement on a standard retinopathy severity scale at 48 weeks, compared with 3.3% of those on a placebo.
• LOVE +24%; announces new $40M share repurchase authorization, along with mixed quarterly results (Q4 adj Ebitda $49.6M vs. $51.9M, but revs better $248M vs. $242.8M) and guides year sales $700M-$750M vs. est. $691.85M.
• MARA +9%; as announces $1.0 Billion repurchase of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2030 and 2031 and sale of 15,133 bitcoin.
• NAVN +27%; shares jumped after better Q4 results (Q4 adj EPS $0.02 vs est ($0.12) on revs $177.9Mm vs est $162Mm) and guided F27E AOI of $58-62M, meaningfully above the Street's $26M estimate, on expanding Ai capabilities accelerating client wins (new-bookings +50%) per Oppenheimer.
• NDLS +54%; after reported strong 4Q operating results that saw significantly better than consensus performance for SSS, RLOM, and AEPS, while Revenue and AEBITDA came in only slightly above consensus.
• OLPX +50%; as Henkel (HENKY) has agreed to buy Olaplex in a $1.4 billion deal to strengthen its premium hair care business. Henkel will offer $2.06 per share in cash for an equity value of $1.4 billion, a premium of about 55% over Wednesday's closing price and about 45% over a 30-day average.
• UNFI +8%; was upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo following constructive meetings W/ management saying turnaround is progressing well, it's positively leveraged to Natural/organic growth & AMZN, upside to targets plausible, and the stock is cheap W/ a DD FCF yield. TP to $56, 29% upside.

• MLKN -22%; shares tumbled after results, missing on the top and bottom line (Q3 adj EPS $0.43 vs est $0.45 on revs $926.6Mm vs est $941.96Mm) while guides Q4 sales $955-995Mm vs est $993.2Mm, gr mgn 38.5-39.5%, adj EPS $0.49-0.55 vs est $0.61.
• SNDK -5%; computer memory and storage makers slumped a second day after Google Research said its new TurboQuant technology can limit the amount of memory required to run large language models by at least a factor of six, reducing the overall cost of training artificial intelligence (MU, SNDK, WDC shares fell again).
• WS -12%; reported Q3 results below consensus as Q3 adj EPS $0.27 vs est $0.43, adj EBIT $20Mm vs est $29.2Mm on revs $769.8Mm vs est $882.95Mm.
• WVE -54%; after announces interim phase 1 data from INLIGHT trial evaluating WVE-007 in healthy individuals living with overweight or obesity; said the obesity drug showed a less than 1% reduction in average body weight compared to placebo in an early-stage trial and says a 240 milligram dose of the drug called WVE-007 showed a placebo-adjusted reduction in body weight of 0.9% after 6 months

Closing Recap

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

U.S. stocks opened higher and held gains most of the day in another quiet and narrow afternoon trading range as investors eagerly await any type of resolution with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Another positive market breadth day as 10 of 11 S&P sectors finished higher with Energy (XLE) the only sector lower, but some more tough talk late day has markets on edge the next 2 days. Late afternoon, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. will hit Iran "harder than they have ever been hit before" if Tehran doesn't make a deal to end the conflict. "President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell," she said. "Any violence beyond this point will be because the Iranian regime refused to understand they have already been defeated and refused to come to a deal." Leavitt said the Iranian regime was looking for an "exit ramp" due to the success of joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Lots of other market moving parts, but the war remains the main driver, with stocks popping and dropping with each passing headline daily. Then of course in the final hour, Iran foreign minister also weighed in saying there are no talks with the U.S. noting an exchange of messages via mediators "does not mean negotiation" with the U.S….more of the same, to be continued tomorrow.

Details of today’s U.S./Iran talking points to reach compromise/cease fire:

Iran received a 15-point plan from the U.S. overnight aimed at bringing the Middle East conflict to a close. Among them in summary, to dismantle all existing nuclear capabilities; commit never to pursue or develop nuclear weapons; end all uranium enrichment on Iranian territory; hand over its entire stockpile of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); fully dismantle the three main nuclear facilities: Natanz, Isfahan (Esfahan), and Fordow (Fordo); grant the IAEA full, unrestricted access and monitoring of all remaining nuclear sites and activities; abandon the "regional proxy paradigm" (stop supporting and directing proxy groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.); cease funding, arming, and directing proxy militias across the Middle East; limit Iran's ballistic missile program; restrict missile use strictly to self-defense; ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains fully open for international shipping (no threats or attacks on energy facilities or vessels); end strikes or attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

Iran rejected the U.S. proposal, laying out its own five conditions to end the war, per senior Iranian security official:

A complete halt to "aggression and assassinations" by the enemy. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic. Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparation. The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region. International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran's sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

In other news, ARM shares surged in semiconductors after unveiling plans to sell its own semiconductor chips for the first time. @Bluekurtic noted on X, “$VIX spent 18 consecutive days above 20. Only the 25th such streak since 2000. Longer streaks like 50 days typically led to or occurred during deeper corrections. Currently, elevated oil prices are driving volatility. Deescalation is essential before damage becomes lasting.” Also note the SPY closed below its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive days, the longest streak since May. Precious metals rebounded while Treasury yields fell. In other macro news, White House press secretary Leavitt said the long-awaited meeting with President Xi in China will now take place in Beijing on May 14th and 15^th, while the White House will also host President Xi and Madame Peng for a reciprocal visit in Washington, D.C. at a later date, to be announced this year.

• U.S. crude oil futures settle at $90.32/bbl, down $2.03, or 2.20% while Brent fell -$2/27 or 2.17% to settle at $102.22 per barrel, paring losses late day while Iran reviewed a U.S. proposal to end the war that has disrupted global energy flows from the Persian Gulf. Iran is still reviewing the U.S. proposal to end the war in the Gulf despite its initial negative response, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday.
• U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply on reports of progress in peace efforts in the Middle East conflict. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell over 6 basis points at 4.32% after earlier reached a session low of 4.308%. The yield on two-year notes was last down 5 bps at 3.87%. U.S. Treasury yields rose after an auction of $69 billion in two-year notes met underwhelming demand, as market uncertainty persists around the Iran war and elevated oil prices.

• In Auto Suppliers: BWA was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research with $68 tgt, following its detailed analysis of their Power Gen opportunity. While some investors are understandably skeptical, the combo of competitive specs, tight supply/demand and a compelling TCO could make this an attractive oppty, which is not priced in after pullback. DAN said plans up to $2B in cumulative share repurchases through 2030.

• In Beauty: COTY tgt cut to $1.50 from $2.50 at Bank America and lowers FY26 estimates due to sales weakness following the conflict in the Middle East as estimate Coty's exposure to the Middle East is in the MSD % range on revenues, but a larger proportion of profitability given a higher end mix of sales in the region.
• In Boating/RV sector: WGO reported Q2 revs $657.4M vs. est. $627.1M and adj EPS $0.27 above the est. $0.24 while raises fiscal 2026 reported EPS guidance to $1.50-$2.20 from $1.40-$2.10 but maintains rev guidance. Keybanc said Boat Industry data for February's was -12.5% Y/y was softer than normal seasonality (+low-thirties% vs +mid-fifties% normal sequential), with January revised upward (-8.1% Y/y vs -16.1% Y/y prior). Looking ahead, the firms Marine view remains cautious. BC stronger vs industry (-2.8% Y/y) Ski/Wake: Category -17% Y/y; MBUU softer, MCFT stronger Pontoon: Category -16.6% Y/y; WGO softer.

• Housing sector: The 30y mortgage rate now at a 5-month high at 6.43% after climbing 13bps this week as the rolling 4-week change is now the fastest since January 2025. Weekly USS mortgage market index declined -10.5% to 310.7, lowest since January, in week ended March 20 as per the Mortgage Bankers Assoc (MBA) weekly data; mortgage purchase index falls 5.4% and the refinance index falls 14.6%. In an amazing stat, @Barchart noted on “X” that, “Home Sellers now outnumber Buyers by 630,000, the largest gap ever recorded.”

• Oil Refiners: Raymond James upgraded CVI to Market Perform from Underperform saying its refining portfolio is positioned to perform in a strong margin environment, but this appears reflected in its premium valuation relative to SMID- and large-cap peers. The firm also raised price tgts in the group with DK to $54 from $47, DINO to $75 from $66, MPC to $270 from $210, PARR to $77 from $50, PSX to $205 from $175 and VLO to $290 from $215saying consensus estimates for Q1 may have risen sharply due to oil market and Middle East conflict-driven margin spikes, but short-term refiners may struggle to fully capture these spiky margins.

• In Crypto: CRCL shares bounce after yesterdays’ 20% pullback (its distribution partner COIN fell over -9%) as Bernstein said markets are misreading the Clarity Act, confusing issuers with distributors. The drop has been tied to draft provisions in the Clarity Act that would restrict yield on stablecoin balances. HOOD board approves new share repurchase program authorizing up to $1.5B repurchase.
• Financial Services: AXP launches new graphite business cash unlimited card with $295 annual fee that has unlimited 2% cash back on eligible purchases and 5% back on flights and prepaid hotels through Amex Travel. In FinTech/BNPL, shares of DAVE, SEZL saw notable weakness today.

• APGE 5M share Secondary priced at $70.00.
• AVXL shares declined after saying it withdrew its EU application for experimental Alzheimer's drug, blarcamesine, after regulators said they could not support approval. The EMA committee has said it was not in a position to give a positive opinion for the drug as an add-on treatment for early-stage patients, company says.
• BEAM said its experimental gene‑editing drug BEAM‑302 showed promising results in an early‑stage study for alpha‑1 antitrypsin deficiency, as a single 60‑mg dose kept patients above healthy levels of a protective lung protein for up to 12 months and sharply cut a harmful mutant protein; drug was well tolerated.
• CCCC announced that the first patient has been dosed with cemsidomide, an oral IKZF1/3 degrader, in a Phase 1b trial evaluating cemsidomide and dexamethasone in combination with elranatamab, an FDA-approved B-cell maturation antigen CD3 targeted bispecific antibody,
• CORT shares active after the FDA approves relacorilant with nab-paclitaxel for Platinum-resistant epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer.
• MAZE said its experimental drug MZE829 reduced protein in urine in a mid‑stage study as the drug targets APOL1‑mediated kidney disease. The study showed an average 35.6% drop in urine protein after 12 weeks; about half of patients saw drops of over 30%, co says.
• MDT cut its profit forecast for Fy26 last night, citing a one-time charge of about $157M tied to payments related to a research collaboration and the U.S. initial public offering of its Diabetes unit; now expects 2026 adj EPS to be between $5.50 and $5.54, compared with $5.62 to $5.66 forecast previously (est. $5.63)
• SRPT said an early-to-mid stage studies of two experimental drugs for rare muscle diseases showed high levels of the treatment reaching muscle tissue with no serious safety issues; says the treatments reduced harmful proteins or genetic material linked to the diseases after a single dose.
• TERN shares jumped after MRK confirmed a Financial Times report overnight that it would acquire the drug company for $53 per share in cash, as all-cash deal is valued at $6.7B as they seek to bolster its pipeline ahead of patent expiry for blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda.

• In Space stocks, shares of ASTS, SATS, and RKLB advanced as the Information reports that SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for an initial public offering as soon as this week. Advisers involved in the preparation expect the Elon Musk-led company could attempt to raise more than $75 billion in what would likely be one of the largest IPOs in history, according to the report. DPRO shares tumbled after results as Needham reiterated Buy noting while revenues came in modestly below Needham's revenue expectations due to orders pushed out into 1H26, it views the quarter as a continued step in laying the groundwork for accelerated growth into 2026.
• Precious metal markets saw strength early as gold and silver look to break their recent downtrend the last 2 weeks, helping boost mining stocks early (AEM, AG, B, FSM, HL, NEM, PAAS held on to gains this afternoon).
• In Industrials: GNRC shares fell after announces the company to reorganize its Domestic and International segments into Residential and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) divisions, effective March 31.

• In Software: BRZE shares jumped following earnings results as delivered a strong Q4 with revenue up 28% Y/Y (+24% organic), beating consensus by 3%, the third consecutive quarter of organic revenue acceleration and FY27 revenue guidance $884-889M range (~20% Y/Y) came in well above consensus of $858M, with good margin guide.
• In Data Centers/HPC sector: CIFR signed a 15-year data center campus lease with an investment-grade hyperscale tenant. Under the terms of the agreement, Cipher will develop and deliver a new HPC data center at one of its existing sites.

• In Memory (MU, SNDK), shares weak after overnight from Google Research: "Introducing TurboQuant: Our new compression algorithm that reduces LLM key-value cache memory by at least 6x and delivers up to 8x speedup, all with zero accuracy loss, redefining Ai efficiency. Also, SK Hynix Inc. seeks to list its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). The memory supplier aims to make an offering in New York in the second half of the year, CEO Kwak Noh-Jung told shareholders during an annual general meeting Wednesday.
• AMD and INTC raised CPU prices again in March, taking 2026 increases to about 10%-15%, while lead times have gone from 1 to 2 weeks to as long as six months, a sign the CPU shortage is getting worse – Nikkei Asia reports.
• SNDK unit, SanDisk Technologies has entered into a private placement subscription agreement to make an equity investment in semiconductor firm Nanya Technology to purchase 139 mln Nanya shares for $1.0B, representing 3.9% stake as purchase price reflects a 15% discount to Nanya’s 30-day average trading price.
• DeepSeek posted job openings for specialists in agentic AI as it moves toward AI systems that can carry out tasks with minimal human oversight.  Jobs on offer include: Agent Deep Learning Algorithm Researcher and Agent Infrastructure Engineer – Bloomberg.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, March 26, 2026

• PCRX Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Pacira to $25 from $27 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm left the company's Q4 report "encouraged" by its efforts to drive core revenue acceleration while investing in the pipeline. Pacira's pipeline updates are back half of the year weighted, which could limit near-term positive momentum in the shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TDOC Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Teladoc to $7 from $8.50 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after meeting with management. There is reason for optimism in parts of the business like International and on the insured side of BetterHelp, but the company is transitioning its model in a competitive segment of the market, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• WGO BMO Capital analyst Tristan Thomas-Martin lowered the firm's price target on Winnebago to $48 from $55 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's Q2 results came in better than expected behind motorized strength and new product ship-in for Winnebago Towables, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite the macro backdrop/Iran conflict, FY26 guidance was maintained, though BMO is lowering its estimates given a slower-than-expected start to the year at retail as well as ongoing macro uncertainty and a more cautious dealer ordering backdrop, the firm added.

• GNRC BofA lowered the firm's price target on Generac to $248 from $260 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the company's investor day meeting. Generac is pivoting from an outage-sensitive residential generator business into a diversified power resiliency platform with structural exposure to AI-driven data center demand, says the analyst, who adds that "investor frustration is understandable," but contends that "the story has not changed. The timeline has." The firm cites updated estimates and marked-to-market comps for its trimmed target.
• DNLI BofA raised the firm's price target on Denali Therapeutics to $31 from $29 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company announced the accelerated approval of Avlayah for the treatment of Hunter syndrome. The firm, which models $525M in potential peak sales for Avlayah, calls this "a pivotal moment" as Denali transitions to becoming a commercial organization.

• EVTL Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Vertical Aerospace to $9.50 from $11 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following its full year results with losses widening and cash burn stepping up. Management partially attributed the delay in completion of a piloted full- transition flight to Bristol's unprecedented rain activity in 2026 year-to-date.
• EL Canaccord analyst Susan Anderson lowered the firm's price target on Estee Lauder to $80 from $100 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm believes the recent sell-off in the beauty, health and wellness sector since the start of the conflict with Iran has led to some attractive buying opportunities as the group has been disproportionately impacted and is generally underperforming the overall market with attractive valuations.
• ELF Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Elf Beauty to $121 from $136 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes the recent sell-off in the beauty, health and wellness sector since the start of the conflict with Iran has led to some attractive buying opportunities as the group has been disproportionately impacted and is generally underperforming the overall market with attractive valuations. Elf Beauty has a combination of newness and innovation or value-oriented offerings can help keep consumers engaged.
• HELE Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Helen of Troy to $18 from $22 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm believes the recent sell-off in the beauty, health and wellness sector since the start of the conflict with Iran has led to some attractive buying opportunities as the group has been disproportionately impacted and is generally underperforming the overall market with attractive valuations.

• SRPT Citi analyst Yigal Nochomovitz raised the firm's price target on Sarepta to $13 from $9 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm says yesterday's "positive" Phase 1/2 interim data from SRP-1001 and SRP-1003 show initial clinical proof of concept of Sarepta's TRiM platform's optimization for tissue specificity.

• HOOD Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro lowered the firm's price target on Robinhood to $91 from $102 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Crypto stocks have declined 46% since their October 2025 peak and have shown volatile but mostly flat performance recently, reflecting investor uncertainty about the sector's outlook, the analyst says in a research note. Despite this, select digital-asset-sensitive names present increasingly attractive entry points, Goldman adds.
• COIN Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Coinbase to $235 from $270 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Crypto stocks have declined 46% since their October 2025 peak and have shown volatile but mostly flat performance recently, reflecting investor uncertainty about the sector's outlook, the analyst says in a research note. Despite this, select digital-asset-sensitive names present increasingly attractive entry points, Goldman adds.

• MUSA JPMorgan initiated coverage of Murphy USA with an Overweight rating and $539 price target. Convenience stores should see profit tailwinds for multiple quarters from recent fuel price volatility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says industry conditions are shifting more in Murphy's favor. The company derives a higher percentage of its sales from fuel and tobacco and focuses on being the low-cost provider of fuel, contends JPMorgan.
• SMG JPMorgan downgraded Scotts Miracle-Gro to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $67, down from $70. The company is likely to pay more for its raw materials in fiscal 2027 relative to fiscal 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says urea prices, diesel prices, and high-density polyethylene are all likely to be higher due to the consequences of the conflict in Iran. Raw material issues are likely to cause some earnings growth uncertainties for Scotts Miracle-Gro, according to JPMorgan.
• GLDD JPMorgan analyst Tomohiko Sano downgraded Great Lakes Dredge to Underweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $17. The firm cites comparatively lower near-term upside for shares versus peers, rather than a negative long-term outlook, for the downgrade. JPMorgan still expects the Saltchuk Resources acquisition to proceed, limiting Great Lakes' upside relative to other names.
• TKR JPMorgan downgraded Timken to Underweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $100. The firm cites comparatively lower near-term upside for shares versus peers, rather than a negative long-term outlook, for the downgrade. The analyst sees limited near-term upside for Timken given the stock's "premium valuation."
• NOAH JPMorgan downgraded Noah Holdings to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $12, down from $14.70. The company's revenue outlook in 2026 remains challenging following the Q4 miss, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan expects consensus estimates to move lower and is turning more cautious on Noah's business recovery trajectory in 2026.

• DRH Ladenburg initiated coverage of DiamondRock with a Buy rating and $12 price target.
• PEB Ladenburg analyst Floris van Dijkum initiated coverage of Pebblebrook Hotel with a Neutral rating and $14 price target.
• HST Ladenburg initiated coverage of Host Hotels with a Buy rating and $23 price target.
• RLJ Ladenburg initiated coverage of RLJ Lodging Trust with a Neutral rating and $8.50 price target.
• APLE Ladenburg analyst Floris van Dijkum initiated coverage of Apple Hospitality REIT with a Neutral rating and $13 price target.
• SHO Ladenburg initiated coverage of Sunstone Hotel with a Neutral rating and $10 price target.

• EQR Morgan Stanley upgraded Equity Residential to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $74, up from $72. The firm's new analysis has cities outperforming suburbs for the apartments, which it calls a "big shift." With deliveries set to fall 70% from peak, concession usage should fall, firming occupancy, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley believes this dynamic favors Equity Residential's mostly urban exposure.
• MAA Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Kramer lowered the firm's price target on MAA to $153.50 from $156 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm pivoted bullish on apartments last year and continues recommending a "regional barbell approach" focused on the Sun Belt and Coastal.
• DNLI Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Denali Therapeutics to $42 from $40 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after the company received FDA accelerated approval for its treatment for Hunter syndrome ahead of its April 5 PDUFA deadline. The firm sees the approval as "the start of a paradigm shift in treatment of MPS II/III and other lysosomal storage disorders," the analyst tells investors.

• CRI Needham initiated coverage of Carter's with a Hold rating and no price target. The firm is "encouraged" by the recent inflection in the company's direct-to-consumer comps. However, it is prudent to take a "wait-and-see approach" on the shares given the macro uncertainty, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• AEO Needham analyst Tom Nikic initiated coverage of American Eagle with a Hold rating and no price target. The company's Aerie brand is doing "extremely well" and the shares are inexpensive relative to history, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Needham, however, awaits more evidence of share catalysts before recommending the shares, saying Aerie's growth will likely slow as compares get significantly more difficult in the second half of the year.
• WWW Needham initiated coverage of Wolverine World Wide with a Buy rating and $21 price target. The company's running sneaker brand Saucony is a "compelling growth story given rising brand awareness," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm also believes Wolverine's outdoor brand Merrell has been a consistent grower and should post solid growth this year. It sees a favorable setup at current share levels.

• GPN Raymond James analyst Madison Suhr downgraded Global Payments to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm does not see a catalyst to change investor perception and improve the stock's valuation multiples over the near-term. Global Payments shares are not expensive, but this is warranted given the company's "more modest" organic revenue growth in the mid-single digits and lower-quality earnings, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• FOUR Raymond James downgraded Shift4 Payments to Outperform from Strong Buy with a $67 price target. The firm cites the company's decelerating organic growth for the downgrade. Shift4's growth will be in the low-double digits in 2026 versus high-teens in 2025, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James says Shift4 is a "show-me story" and that patience will be required with the 2026 guidance "no lay-up."

• CP RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on Canadian Pacific Kansas City to C$128 from C$124 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q1 results for Class I railroads. The firm assigns the stock higher target multiples due to an indication that the freight backdrop is improving, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• TX Scotiabank downgraded Ternium to Sector Perform from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $40. The firm cites a lack of upside to the price target for the downgrade. Scotiabank does not expect a fast United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement renegotiation. Steel tariffs imposed by the U.S. may remain in place, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As a result, the economics of Ternium's investments in Mexico may be questioned by the market, since the benefits from increased integration can take longer than originally expected to materialize, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• DNLI Stifel analyst Paul Matteis raised the firm's price target on Denali Therapeutics to $41 from $34 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following Avlayah's approval for the neurological manifestations of Hunter Syndrome. Though expectations are for a slow launch, this serves as a key catalyst that derisks a floor value for the stock, holds positive implications for an accelerated approval pathway for DNL126 in Sanfillipo, and improves the setup into some of the higher risk/higher reward catalysts in Alzheimer's, the analyst tells investors.
• CELC Stifel analyst Stephen Willey raised the firm's price target on Celcuity to $125 from $115 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's updated target price primarily reflects reduced FY26 and later operating expense estimates, the analyst tells investors following the company's Q4 update.
• CDRO Stifel raised the firm's price target on Codere Online to $9 from $8.50 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Recent media reports suggest that parent company and 66%-owner, Codere Group, has begun a formal sale process and though the firm understands there is no mandatory takeover requirement for the 33% publicly-traded Codere Online stub on change-in-control, it argues that a sale of the parent may lead to a takeout of the Online unit as well given simplification of corporate structure and omnichannel strategy for a strategic acquirer.
• WING Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull lowered the firm's price target on Wingstop to $250 from $325 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes Wingstop continues to struggle with same-restaurant sales performance, potentially down 7% in Q1, and attributes recent weakness primarily to poor tactical execution. However, it is "encouraged" by the appointment of a new head of franchise operations and despite "these frustrations," the brand remains healthy "with investor expectations well below the sell-side mean estimates," the analyst added.

• WLK Truist analyst Peter Osterland raised the firm's price target on Westlake to $127 from $117 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's earnings stand to benefit in the near term from sharply higher pricing dynamics primarily within its PEM - Performance and Essential Materials - segment as foreign competition across several petrochemical chains has been impacted by higher feedstock prices and disruptions related to the Iran conflict, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MOS UBS analyst Lucas Beaumont downgraded Mosaic to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $27, down from $33. The firm sees a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels. The company faces deteriorating phosphate profitability from increased sulfur and ammonia input costs, which is exacerbated by Middle East disruptions pressuring stripping margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS says improvements in phosphate production has been slow, limiting improvement in fixed cost absorption and Mosaic's ability to capitalize on high prices.
• CF UBS raised the firm's price target on CF Industries to $140 from $97 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees scope for further upside in nitrogen pricing/earnings with the current industry disruption more severe than what is reflected in gas/nitrogen pricing at present depending on the duration, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LXU UBS analyst Joshua Spector raised the firm's price target on LSB Industries to $16.50 from $9.75 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees scope for further upside in nitrogen pricing/earnings with the current industry disruption more severe than what is reflected in gas/nitrogen pricing at present depending on the duration, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• NUE UBS analyst Andrew Jones upgraded Nucor to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $190, up from $184. The recent "excessive correction" presents a buying opportunity as the firm thinks U.S. steel producers are "largely insulated" from the Iran conflict, the analyst tells investors. The firm likes the setup for Nucor given little direct hit from energy and project growth in a federally supported higher price/volume environment, the analyst added.

• HUBG Wells Fargo downgraded Hub Group to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $35, down from $55. The firm lacks visibility on the timeline for a resolution of the company's accounting issues. Wells says its expectation for a timely resolution has faded. It assumes the $77M in new purchased transportation charges during the first nine months of 2025 continued in Q4 and will remain a similar headwind going forward. The analyst reduced estimates for Hub and downgraded the shares.
• UNFI Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly upgraded United Natural Foods to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $56, up from $40. After meeting with management, the firm believes the company's turnaround is progressing well. United Natural is positively levered to the growth in wellness and Amazon, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells says United Natural, given its leading natural and organic position, offers investors a unique way to play the healthy living trend.
• GNRC Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Generac to $238 from $234 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. A new hyperscaler contract was not announced, but Generac disclosed a non-binding, notice to proceed with a hyperscaler, the firm notes. Wells also highlights a three-year revenue CAGR guidance beat, while margin guide was in-line.
• MUR Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Murphy Oil to $38 from $32 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Webinar insights refine the firm's Vietnam PSC modeling and reinforce long-term offshore value, though the opportunity remains long dated and valuation continues to be anchored to near-term cash flow despite improving execution visibility, Wells says.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for January

• Earnings After the Close: AGBK BNGO PPHC

• RSA Conference 2026, 3/23-3/25 in San Francisco, CA
• TD Cowen 2nd Annual Distinctive Industrials and Infrastructure Services Conference, 3/23-3/24, in Toronto

• 8:30 AM ET                   Non-farm Productivity for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q4
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, March-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, March-flash
• 10:00 AM ET                 Richmond Fed Index for March
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ABSI AIR BRZE BZAI FGI GME GUTS ITRG KBH BOAH PAYS TELA VELO WOR YQ

• RBC Capital Global Ophthalmology Conference, 3/24-3/25 (virtual)
• Roth 38th Annual ROTH Conference, 3/22-3/24, in Dana Point, CA
• RSA Conference 2026, 3/23-3/25 in San Francisco, CA
• TD Cowen 2nd Annual Distinctive Industrials and Infrastructure Services Conference, 3/23-3/24, in Toronto

• 8:30 AM ET                   Current Account for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AAPG BYND CELC CTSO DERM EPAC FUL HIT JEF KRMN MCHX MLKN NDLS PGEN WS WYY

• RSA Conference 2026, 3/23-3/25 in San Francisco, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for March

• Earnings After the Close: AGX BTGO CV LSF OXM SLND VERI WKSP WPRT XOS

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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