Closing Recap
Friday, July 31, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | 277.68 | 0.53% | 52,485 |
S&P 500 | 52.17 | 0.70% | 7,489 |
Nasdaq | 251.68 | 1.00% | 25,373 |
Russell 2000 | -14.76 | 0.50% | 2,931 |
US equity futures built on yesterday’s momentum with modest overnight gains, led by the Nasdaq, but the gains were short-lived as sellers emerged to send us back into the red early. At least earnings have broadly held up thus far. With 285 S&P names having reported thus far, 87% have beaten expectations with an average beat of 14%. Average year/year EPS growth of 22% compares favorably with last year’s 11%, while median growth of 13% also beats last year’s 8%. From a sector perspective, all S&P 500 healthcare names thus far have a 100% beat rate, while technology, financials and industrials also have at least a 90% beat rate thus far. Utilities and communication services are at the bottom right now with beat rates of 67% and 70%, respectively. While stocks petered out on the open, falling notably to erase the overnight gains, investors stepped in around 10:30 am this morning, and didn’t looked back as the S&P 500 (SPX) moved above the 7,500 level (off morning lows 7,399.83) and the Nasdaq outperformed rising over 1%, helped by strength in Amazon (AMZN), rising 15% on results, along with semis, software, and Ai plays. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) rose over 3% (thanks to AMZN), along with gains in Industrials (XLI) and Communications (XLC) while Materials (AXLB) fell -2% and defensive sectors were down modestly. For the month the S&P 500 fell 0.13%, the Nasdaq declined 3.2%, and the Dow climbed 0.32%. for the month the S&P 500 fell 0.13%, the Nasdaq declined 3.2%, and the Dow climbed 0.32%.
In sentiment today, the Fear and Greed Index registered just 39/100 (Fear) versus last week’s 41 (Fear), but up from last month’s 29 (Fear). A year ago we were at 63 (Greed). By mid/late morning, large cap indices had briefly recovered back to small gains with breadth favoring decliners by 5:3 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.81%) versus SPY (+0.05%) and QQQ (+0.23%). SPY breadth favored decliners by 8:5, while QQQ breadth favored decliners by 7:6. Sector performance was muted with just 3 of 11 S&P sector ETFs in the green. Consumer Discretionary (+2.88%), Communications (+0.87%) and Industrials (+0.47%) were outperformers, while Technology (-0.76%), Health Care (-1.18%) and Materials (-2.21%) paced the underperformers.
Week ahead outlook: Next week will be a focus on earnings again (AMD, SPCX, SKHY) as well as key jobs data with the July employment report (along with ADP private payrolls and JOLTs), flash PMIs from major global economies, and developments in the Iran war. Traders will also be on watch for potential FX intervention, following suspected action by Japan and South Korea in recent days. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 91,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 4.3%. Japan has a light calendar with final July PMIs, household spending and overtime pay. The Bank of Japan publishes its June meeting minutes on Wednesday. China's busy week features the private-sector July manufacturing PMI, services PMI on Wednesday, trade on Friday.
Economic Data
- U.S. Q2 employment cost index +0.9% (vs. consensus +0.8%) vs Q1 +0.9% (prev +0.9%); Q2 wages/salaries +0.9% vs Q1 +0.8% (prev +0.8%); Q2 benefit costs +1.0% vs Q1 +1.2% (prev +1.2%).
- Chicago PMI rose to 57.6 in July from 56.7 in June, beating the 55.0 consensus, while the Chicago Business Barometer, remained in expansionary territory for the third straight month but has cooled from its level of 62.7 in May.
- University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final July 4.2% vs prelim 4.2% and final June 4.6% and 5-year inflation outlook final July 3.3% vs prelim 3.3% and final June 3.3%
- University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment final July 55.2 (consensus 54.0) vs preliminary July 54.4 and final June 49.5; current conditions index final July 54.8 vs prelim July 54.9 and final June 47.7 and expectations index final July 55.4 vs prelim July 54.0 and final June 50.7.
Commodities
- Gold futured slipped overnight, giving up much of yesterday's gain. A rebound in the Dollar and rising yields pressured gold, though the metal still posted its first monthly gain in the past five. Moderating rate-hike expectations eased the way for gold gains as inflation has eased a bit, so both gold watchers and Fed watchers will remain on alert for the next round of data. December gold settled -$53.60/oz, or -1.29%, at $4,107.
- U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $84.67/bbl, up $1.08, or 1.29% while Brent crude gained $1.09 or 1.22% to settle at $90.12 per barrel. WTI crude gained overnight with persistent uncertainty around the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC noted overnight the strait is closed and requires permits from Iran, but the situation remains quite fluid.
Currencies & Treasuries
- Treasury yields the story of the day and month on rising inflation concerns. The benchmark 10-yr yield was up 8.1bps today to end at 4.743%, rising 32bps for the month of July at highest yield since January 2025 (up 59bps YTD). The 30-yr yield rose 6.8bps today to 5.274%, up 37bps in July and highest yield since July 2007 (up 44bps YTD). The shorter term 2-yr yield rises 6.2bps today to 4.289%, up 15.1bps this month, rising 5 straight months (up 82bps YTD).
- The dollar was little changed on the day, but fell on the week, mostly against the Japanese yen which rose off 40-year lows around 164, hitting lows of 158 yesterday after news of Japanese intervention on the currency. WSJ reports the U.S. Treasury has informed banks it might make trades to beef up the yen. The dollar index (DXY) ended below the 100 level.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 1.08 | 84.67 |
Brent | 1.09 | 90.12 |
Gold | -53.60 | 4,107.00 |
EUR/USD | 0.0003 | 1.1531 |
JPY/USD | -0.51 | 159.00 |
10-Year Note | 0.081 | 4.743% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- Consumer products sector: NWL rises after reporting Q2 normalized EPS of $0.42 versus estimates of $0.20 and raising full-year normalized EPS guidance to $0.73–$0.77, well above the $0.58 consensus, with FY revenue growth now forecast at 1–2%; CL reported modest EPS and sales beat for Q2 while guides FY Organic Sales +1% to +4% (vs est +2.82%); CHD raised its guidance for the year after a strong second quarter of organic growth as now expects sales to be flat to up 1% for the full year, instead of down 0.5% to 1.5% as previously anticipated. It also raised the floor of its adjusted earnings forecast.
- Building products sector: FND Results came in about as expected with an unchanged guide except an EPS lift on share repurchase. Management commented on sequential progress in comps with two regions showing positive comps in the quarter.
- Auto parts suppliers: MGA posts Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.86 versus estimates of $1.50 on sales of $11.00B against the $10.69B consensus and guides full-year sales to $41.3–$42.5B with adjusted EPS of $6.70–$7.30; LEA Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.28, topping the $3.96 estimate, on revenue of $6.21B versus the $6.10B consensus, and sets full-year sales guidance of $23.54–$24.01B with adjusted EBIT of $1.08–$1.20B
Energy
- Major Oil sector: CVX Q2 adjusted EPS $6.06 tops consensus $5.57 on revs $70.06B vs. est. $67.98B; Q2 upstream earnings $8.18B; 2Q cash flow from ops $22.6B vs. est. $19.72B; sees FY capex low end of $18B-$19B; ran U.S. refineries at 97% of capacity during second qtr; Most Recent; Q2 U.S. production was a record 2.1 million barrels oil equivalent per day; XOM missed Q2 profit saying earnings rose 67% q/q to $14.7B, or $3.52 per share and below the consensus of $3.60; still, the quarterly profit was more than double the amount posted by the largest U.S. producer in the same period of last year; Q2 total production was 4.5M barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 4.6M boepd in the first three months of the year. SHEL said it had agreed to sell its BG Cyprus unit to Hungarian oil and gas firm MOL Group for up to $720M.
- Utility sector: AEE posted results modestly ahead of expectations and reaffirmed FY26 guidance of $5.25–$5.45 (midpoint $5.35) while maintained its LT 6-8% EPS growth rate, which does not reflect the current levels of ESAs. EIX downgraded to EW from Overweight at Barclays after strong performance this year.
- Solar sector: FSLR delivered Q2 results above expectations on a net IEEPA tariff benefit, higher 45X-eligible U.S. mix, and lower Logistics costs, and reaffirmed FY26 guidance, while Q2 sales $1.056B misses $1.062B est. and down from $1.1B y/y primarily due to lower revenue following customer contract terminations. NXT reported record FQ127 results with adj. EBITDA and EPS well ahead of the Street, raised the low end of FY27 guidance, and grew backlog to a record >$5.5B on well over $1B of bookings (upgraded at BMO).
Financials
- Crypto sector: COIN shares fell as Q2 revs decline -14% to $1.22B and reported a Q2 loss of -$359.5M or (-$1.36) vs. a profit of $1.43B or $5.14 y/y marking a third straight quarterly loss, hurt by lower transaction revenue as transaction revenue drops 21% y/y to $599M from $764M a year earlier. MSTR shares fall on results as Q2 EPS loss (-$24.45) vs. est. $3.07 as results were dominated by an $8.3B unrealized bitcoin loss, overshadowing a modest revenue beat/highlighted efforts to support and stabilize its STRC preferred.
- Financial Services: RDDT shares fall despite beat and raise quarter (EPS $1.25 vs est $0.95/revenue $805Mm vs est $730.4Mm, +38.2% YoY) and Q3 revs better $860Mm-$870Mm vs est $829.1Mm but slight US DAU q/q decline and comments on search referral volatility are likely elevating fears around Google
REITs:
- AMH reported a 2Q cFFO beat and management increased ‘26 cFFO guidance by ~2% at the midpoint (1% above consensus) due to lower expense growth, higher NOI contribution from development and capital allocation activity. Lease rate growth accelerated in late 2Q and occupancy continued to ramp to 96%+.
- BRX quarterly results were largely in line, supported by strong visibility into above-sector SSNOI and FFO growth through 2027.
- CPT reported a 2Q26 beat and mgmt. affirmed ‘26 cFFO guidance. Lease rate growth improved since 1Q26 and occupancy ramped to the high-95% range in late June, potentially proving better pricing power heading into July. CPT decreased ’26 SSRev. growth guidance by 25bps to reflect the sale of the CA portfolio but was affirmed on a comparable basis and SSNOI growth guidance increased 30bps due to lower expenses.
- CUBE reported a 2Q FFO miss (-$0.01), though results were consistent with management's quarterly guidance and accompanied by a $0.01 (+0.4%) increase to the midpoint of FY26 guidance. SSREV growth accelerating to +0.8% (from 0.6%) and SSNOI growth improving to -0.7% (from -1.5%).
- CUZ reported 2Q26 FFO that beat cons. (+$0.01), and mgmt. raised FY26 FFO guidance by 0.3% to $2.92-$2.98 (+3.9% y/y) but is in line with cons. During 2Q26, fundamentals were strong, including cash SSNOI (+5.9%), rent spreads (+9.2%), and leasing activity remained elevated at 924ksf.
- DRH reported a big 1Q26 Adj. EBITDA/FFO beat of 16%/19%, or 11% after excluding the benefit from a ~$7M tax appeal. Management increased Adj. EBITDA/FFO guidance by 6%/7%, which mostly reflects better 2Q results and a modest uptick in the 2H outlook.
- GLPI reported 2Q26 AFFO of $1.03, a $0.01 beat vs. consensus (in line with KBCM), and raised FY26 AFFO guidance by lifting the low end of the range by $0.02/sh. Improved visibility into the Company's development funding pipeline appears to be the primary driver, with ~$410M funded in 2Q and $400M-$450M expected to be funded in 2H26.
- HR 2Q26 FFO beat consensus, and management increased ’26 NFFO guidance by ~1%, in line with consensus. Posted a sequential increase in new leasing and occupancy, strong retention and highest cash leasing spreads in recent years. Cash SSNOI growth decelerated to 5.1%.
Biotech & Pharma:
- ABBV shares slipped after trimming its 2026 profit forecast between $13.87 and $14.07, compared with its prior range of $13.91 to $14.11 (est. $14.08 per share), which followed a modest Q2 top/bottom line beat.
- AZN said that the European Commission has approved its antibody-drug conjugate Datroway, developed with Daiichi Sankyo (DSNKY), for a second breast cancer indication in the region.
- KPTI shares plunge -60% after topline results from phase 3 trial; says plans to file an sNDA with the FDA in August 2026 for selinexor with ruxolitinib in myelofibrosis; application targets accelerated approval using SVR35 as a surrogate endpoint; the company will seek Priority Review. If Priority Review is granted, the PDUFA action date would be about six months from FDA receipt.
- MRNA Q2 revs $100M misses the $103M estimate, hit by weaker-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 shot, ahead of an upcoming regulatory decision for its experimental flu vaccine; said MRNA-1403 did not meet statistical criteria for early success at phase 3 interim analysis, preparing to enroll additional cohort; said expects about 55% of its second half 2026 revenue to be recognized in the third quarter.
- MYGN shares tumble after Q2 EPS loss (-$0.25) vs. est. loss (-$0.06); Q2 revs fell -11% y/y to $190.7M below consensus $206.03M; Q2 Gross margin dropped 4.6% to 66.6%; operating loss narrowed to $38.9< Q2 test volumes slipped 1% to 379,000; cuts FY26 revs to $770M-$790M from $860M-$880M.
- NVO shares fell after saying a trial in cardiovascular drug ziltivekimab failed to provide major reduction risks. While ziltivekimab demonstrated target engagement and inhibition of the IL-6 pathway... this did not translate into major adverse cardiovascular events risk reduction versus placebo.
- REPL shares surge after the FDA's panel of outside advisers voted to back results from a trial studying the company's drug. REPL seeks accelerated approval for RP1 in combination with BMY's Opdivo in advanced melanoma in patients whose tumors grew despite prior treatment, with a decision expected by August 2
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- Managed care sector: ALHC shares declined as Q2 results were good, with a sizable EBITDA beat (+$10M) driven by upside to membership and a lower MLR (~50 bps better) but raised 2026 EBITDA (+$4M at MP), less than the beat, reflecting clinical and operational investments in 2H.
- Ortho sector: SYK shares fell as reported Q2 results that beat expectations on the top- and bottom lines while mgmt tightened its revenue guidance range for the year vs. raising numbers pressuring shares.
- Insulin sector: DXCM shares jumped after delivered a solid Q2 beat and raise as new patients globally were in line with the Q1 record, with sequential U.S. improvement; raised its 2026 revenue guide (up 11-13% y/y), and its margin outlook by 50bps at the midpoint (Adj. EBITDA 31.5-32.0%).
- Medical Equipment & Tech: ILMN Q2 Revs $1.159B (vs. $1.13B cons), with 8.1% ROW Organic rev Growth, 6.5% Organic; raise guidance now expecting ROW Organic Rev growth greater than 5% (vs. 2% to 4% prior), raising EPS Guide; clinical Consumables grew 15% in the quarter (relative to 20% the prior two quarters). ITGR shares spiked late day after the WSJ reported KKR is near a deal to take the company private, at roughly $127 per share, the people said. https://tinyurl.com/ra9r2nts
- Meical Equipment and Supplies: GH reported 2Q revenue of $335mn compared consensus of $314mn. Screening revenue/volume was $53mn/66k compared to Consensus of $43mn/54k. 2Q non-GAAP EPS was ($0.42) compared consensus of ($0.39).
Transports
- E&C sector: after the sector surged Thursday behind better results from PWR and EME the group pressured early as MTZ shares slide after reported in-line Q2, rev. & EBITDA were in line (Comms margins were lower, offset by Pipelines) and provided 26E revised revenue, +$700M for '26 (lower than $800M-$900M contribution from Superior) while lowered Comms by $375M (~20% for 2H) on timing delays. MYRG reported a strong quarter on revenue and C&I margins. Backlog growth was led by two large transmission project bookings (total in excess of $200M), which should start burring in 2H27. PWR was upgraded to Outperform with $800 tgt at Guggenheim after results this week.
- Industrial & Power: ETN shares rally behind better results and strong guidance; Q2 adj EPS $3.15 vs. est. $3.07; Q2 sales $8.531B vs. est. $8.133B and Q2 organic growth 14%; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $13.40-$13.60 from $13.05-$13.50 (est. $13.35); sees Fy organic growth of 11%-13% while sees Q3 organic rev. +13.5% to +15.5%, vs. est. +10.6%.
- Transport sector: SAIA was upgraded from Hold to Buy while lower PT from $450 to $438 at Stifel saying the co’s headline Q2 adj EPS of $3.51 beat the Street's $3.38 estimates and notes noise in reported KPIs, given mix changes, network changes, and pricing strategy changes were the wrong focus.
Materials, Metals & Mining
- In Chemicals: CTVA reported slightly softer than expected sales but a solid bottom line, coming in above our estimate. The company raised guidance by 2.5% at the midpoint, showing strength in the space vs peers; EMN Q2 adj EPS $1.97 vs. est. $1.82; Q2 revs $2.51B vs. est. $2.4B; Sales revenue increased 15 percent sequentially driven by strong volume growth across the company and disciplined price-cost management in our specialty businesses; expect Q3 EBIT to be higher; HUN Q2 EPS miss but revs beat while Q2 adjusted net income was flat vs. year ago loss citing higher volumes and pricing, but notes energy cost headwinds, especially in Europe; LYB Q2 adj EPS $4.3 vs. est. $3.41; Q2 sales and other operating revs $9.177B; says outlook could temporarily impact normal buying patterns; OLN reports miss and lower Ebitda guide as Q2 EPS loss ($0.12) vs est ($0.10), revenue $1.742B vs est $1.807B, adj EBITDA $191.3Mm vs est $184.8Mm, Q3 adj EBITDA guide $160Mm to $200Mm vs est $226.19Mm.
- Paper & Packaging: IP was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank saying while they have long viewed management's transformation efforts favorably, prior Hold rating reflected uncertainty around execution, demand, and whether the containerboard pricing environment could improve meaningfully. Following 1Q26 and 2Q26 results, we believe the risk/reward has shifted in investors' favor.
Technology
- Hyperscalers: AMZN shares surge after delivered a broad Q2 beat, driven by accelerating AWS growth and stronger-than-expected profitability; Q2 revs rose 20% y/y to $200.6B, while AWS revenue jumped 37% to $42.2B, topping estimates and marking its fastest growth in 18 quarters; Q2 operating income of $27.5B also far exceeded guidance and consensus, though guidance was shy of consensus.
- Hardware sector: AAPL shares declined despite the iPhone maker posting a Q3 beat on revenue and earnings, as weaker-than-expected Services and Greater China revenue overshadowed strong iPhone and Mac sales; revenue rose 16% to $109.4B, with iPhone and Mac sales topping estimates, but Services revenue of $30.7B and Greater China revenue of $18.8B both missed expectations.
- Gaming Software: RBLX shares tumbled after results and Q3 guidance that was substantially below expectations; management also withdrew annual guidance; was downgraded by several firms on Wall Street as believes the platform may be entering lifecycle decline as weakness broadens from new-user acquisition in Q1 to monetization in Q2; note Q3 guidance was 12.5% below expectations at the midpoint.
Semiconductors:
- Memory stocks active (MU, SNDK, SKHY) as Japanese flash memory and solid-state drive company Kioxia (KXIAY) issued a weaker-than-expected forecast for the coming fiscal half-year, indicating the rise in memory prices may begin to moderate. Kioxia said it expects operating income to be ¥3.16T, or roughly $19.7B. Given that the company posted an operating profit of ¥1.27T, that would indicate ¥1.89T for the coming quarter, weaker than analysts anticipated. In addition to the financial forecast, Kioxia announced it would split its stock three-for-one and said it would buy back ¥800B worth of shares.
- AXTI shares surged after reported Q2 results that topped expectations, with revenue soaring 160% y/y and gross margin expanding to 44.9% from 8% y/y as highlighted record indium phosphide revenue, driven by strong demand for data center optical connectivity and AI infrastructure, and said ongoing investments in capacity and its integrated supply chain position it to meet growing customer demand.
- MPWR reported strong 2Q results and 3Q guidance, which were well above expectations; Q2 sales of $980.6M (+21.9% q/q) coming in +9.0% higher than consensus $902.0M, driven by sequential growth across all six end markets, led by Enterprise Data and Communications. Upside was mostly driven by ED, which grew over 160% y/y, while strong growth was also seen in Comms (+78% y/y) and increased its ED growth outlook in '26 to +130% from +85% prior.
- COHU reported a beat and raise quarter amid high performance compute demand; revenue of $149.0M (+19.1% QoQ), driven by Systems (+41% QoQ), with non-GAAP gross margin of 45.5% (ahead of guidance of ~44%, but -100bps QoQ) was lower on higher Systems as a % of sales.