Early Look

Thursday, October 1, 2026

After a sharp selloff in the final minutes of the trading day Wednesday pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory, U.S. futures are looking mostly higher despite another bounce in oil prices and Treasury yields as the relentless push higher has dragged on investor sentiment. The U.S. bond market just completed its worst quarter this century, with the Treasury selloff pushing yields to two-decade highs as traders brace for higher-for-longer interest rates. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield went up 87.1 basis points over the September quarter. Still, for the month, the S&P 500 only fell -0.4%, the Dow fell -4.3% and the Nasdaq rose 1.9%; For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose 2.0%, the Dow fell -2.7% and the Nasdaq rose 2.5%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 2,203 points or 3.3% to 68,956, the Shanghai Index was closed as its Golden week holiday started, and the Hang Seng Index was also closed. In Europe, the German DAX is down -139 points to 25,059, while the FTSE 100 is down -166 points to 10,439. In earnings news overnight, Micron (MU) shares are little changed after its quarterly beat, while Accenture (ACN) shares rise on results.

While the broader stock markets have been holding up, it appears the AI buildout/narrative is what is keeping this economy going to this point with many negative catalysts being pushed aside including negative market breadth and significantly more 52-week lows vs. 52-week highs the last few weeks. Soaring energy prices such as oil, gasoline (hitting consumer) and diesel (hitting transports) have taken toll on spending, but the soaring yields over the last few weeks is yet to dent the broader market, despite borrowing costs jumping. An interesting observations by @burrytracker (not Michael Burry) noted on X, “The Big Short is about to repeat itself No one is paying attention to housing: 1. Rates have risen for 6 straight weeks 2. Mortgage applications fell 6% in a single week 3. Purchase applications are down 14% from a year ago 4. Refinance applications have fell 56% year over year 5. Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) just rose for the first time in 5 months, up 19% year over year.” In another Interesting stat: @GlobalMktObserv noted on X, “S&P 500 breadth is flashing a signal not seen since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: The S&P 500 is trading within 1% of an all-time high, while over 70% of its stocks are at least -10% below their own highs.”

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -443.87 points, or 0.86%, to 50,906.05
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 63.52 points, or 0.24%, to 26,861.06
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -11.06 points, or 0.39% to 2,796.86

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims…est. +200K
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.725M (prior 1.719M)
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept-final…prior 57.0
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for August…est. 0.0% (prior -0.5%)
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for September…est. 55.0
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: NKE

• Monthly Auto sales data for September

• UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index headline reading edged up to 51.9 in September from 51.7 in August, but its output gauge slowed to 51.5 from 52.1, its second monthly slowdown in a row.
• U.S.-based employers announced 44,281 job cuts in September, declining 18% from August and 20% from the same month a year ago. The number represents the lowest total for the month since 2022, according to a report released from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday. For the first nine months of the year, employers have announced the elimination of 573,195 jobs, down 39% from the same period a year ago, the lowest total since 2022.

• Casinos (WYNN, MLCO, LVS): Macau gross gaming revenue fell 1.2% year over year in September to 18.1B patacas ($2.24B), according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. The gaming revenue tally was below the consensus expectation for 2.2% growth during the month and 17.5% below the mark from August. Notably, the GGR level was the lowest for any month in 2026. For the first eight months of 2026, Macau GGR is up 3.2% year over year to 187.1B patacas ($23.1B).
• McCormick (MKC) Q3 adj EPS $0.86 vs. est. $0.76 and revs $2.02B vs. est. $1.977B; Net Sales increased 17.4% in the third quarter and included a 0.9% favorable impact from currency. Organic sales growth was 1.9%; reaffirms FY26 adjusted EPS view $3.05-$3.13, vs. consensus $3.09 and said it ees reported net sales growth 13%-17%.
• Tesla (TSLA) Spain registrations climb 24.8% Y/y in September to 3,733 cars, an industry group notes; Spain new Tesla registrations climb 9.5% Y/y in Jan-september while Electric cars as a whole climb 36.9%.

• Constellation Energy (CEG) shares rise after the power company and Amazon (AMZN) announce a 20-year power-purchase agreement. The deal is expected to spur over $3 billion in infrastructure investments, add 190 MW new emission-free capacity coming online between 2030 and 2032. The deal supports expansion of Calvert Cliffs nuclear plant, Maryland.
• Corteva (CTVA) spinoff of Vylor clears after California bid to block separation fails; The appeals court sent California’s bid to delay the separation back to the district court without weighing its merits. On remand, the district court rejected California’s request to block the separation.
• TC Energy (TRP) upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs noting the stock has pulled back from its highs earlier this year on the back of market concerns around the pace of gas/power demand growth and broader pressure on multiples from higher rates, but GSCO sees the selloff as overdone for three reasons. Goldman expects TRP to announce further US Natural gas pipeline projects over the coming quarters as it executes on its pre-FID backlog, with potential supplementing growth projects on its Canada gas footprint.

• Inogen (INGN) agreed to divest its U.S. oxygen rental business to Rotech Healthcare for total estimated cash consideration of up to $25M. The transaction is expected to close in Q4 2026, and Inogen also entered into a long-term supply agreement with Rotech that is expected to expand access to its oxygen concentrators through Rotech’s distribution network.
• Sanofi (SNY) reached an agreement with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) to jointly develop and commercialize new immunology drugs; the deal is worth up to $8B, including $1B upfront with Regeneron to jointly develop four long-acting immunology therapies.

• Accenture (ACN) forecast full-year revenue growth above estimates, highlighting strong client demand for its consulting business and AI-related services as it now expects annual revenue growth between 3% and 6%, compared with analysts' average estimate of 3.9%; reported Q4 revs $18.7B vs. est. $18B, with Q4 new bookings of $22.2B and sees Q1 revs $18.95B-$19.6B vs. est. $19.4B.
• Broadcom (AVGO) to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips, as Anthropic’s IPO prospectus documents extensive partnerships with a handful of big tech firms. The company's relationship with Anthropic spans compute supply, equipment leasing and financing -- giving the semiconductor company a central role in Anthropic's infrastructure buildout.
• Google (GOOGL) unveiled Gemini 4 Argon, its new Frontier model and the top model in the Gemini 4 Generation. Pricing: $2 per 1M input tokens and $10 per 1M output tokens, with cached input priced 95% lower. Argon can generate up to 1M output tokens in a single trajectory, up from 64K previously. Google says Argon is competitive with OpenAI’s Astra and Anthropic’s Opus 5.5 across coding, enterprise work and cybersecurity.
• Progress Software (PRGS) Q3 adj. EPS $1.69 vs. est. $1.52; revenue $246Mm vs. est. $247.3Mm; adj. operating Income $105.3Mm vs est $95.55Mm; Q4 revenue guidance $297Mm-$305Mm vs. est. $258.3Mm; Q4 adj. EPS guidance $1.24-$1.33 vs est $1.45; FY revenue guidance raised to $1.044B-$1.052B vs. est. $1.01B.
• Synopsys (SNPS) provides FY26-FY30 financial targets; sees FY27 adjusted EPS $19.04-$19.12, vs. consensus $17.69 and sees FY27 revenue $11.1B-$11.2B, vs. consensus $10.8B; said intends to repurchase $1B in shares over coming months.
• Take-two Interactive (TTWO) enters new long-term Xbox publisher license agreement with Microsoft (MSFT) as the agreement grants Take-two rights to develop and sell Xbox compatible products.
• Tencent (TCEHY) signed its largest overseas lease deal with Oracle (ORCL) to access about 100,000 advanced AI chips that were not available in China, the Financial Times reported. Tencent this year agreed to a five-year lease across multiple Oracle data centers in south-east Asia. The deal is estimated to be worth about $7 billion, with an upfront payment of about 30%, the report said.
• Blaize (BZAI) announces restructuring plan to focus resources on core growth areas; restructuring plan to reduce workforce by about 26%; restructuring plan expected to generate annualized savings of $7.50M-$8.40M

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, October 01, 2026

U.S. stocks under pressure again after tumbling late Wednesday to close the day and month lower for the S&P 500. The same story continues to drag stock markets lower: the persistent surge in Treasury yields and energy prices amid inflation concerns and expectations for needed rate hikes by the Fed. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is on track to finish the week higher than it opened for an eighth straight week, a run that has lifted the benchmark to its highest level since 2002. The yield was last trading at 5.33% on Thursday, up about 3 basis points on the session and at a fresh high for the year. It opened 2026 at 4.16% and has climbed 115 basis points through the first three quarters. The 30-year yield rises 4bps to 5.677%. Meanwhile the US dollar index (DXY) extends gains as the euro slips to 17-month lows vs the buck. Economic data was stronger today with jobless claims, construction spending and ISM manufacturing, but inflation concerns still as the prices paid index component jumped notably again. In tech (XLK), which was the only S&P sector to close September in the “green”, MU shares slipped after earnings as another strong beat-and-raise quarter was offset by softer near-term margins and higher spending (GMs are more negatively impacted by increased variable compensation, and Opex increased by an additional $1.5B for all of FY27). Software and IT Services stocks are seeing some strength behind Accenture (CAN) earnings/guidance. Same story today as tech and Energy (XLE) are rising while the other nine S&P sectors are lower again.

• August construction spending rises +0.9% (vs. consensus unchanged) to $2.203 trln, vs July -0.1% (prev -0.5%) while August private construction spending +1.1%, public spending +0.2%
• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 54.5 in September (vs. consensus 55.0) vs 54.6 in August while the prices paid index jumped to 77.9 in September vs. consensus 72.3 and above the 71.1 in August; new orders index 55.3 in September vs 53.7 in August and employment index 52.7 vs 51.2 in August.

• Nuclear/Utility sector: CEG shares rose after the power company and AMZN announce a 20-year power-purchase agreement. The deal is expected to spur over $3 billion in infrastructure investments, add 190 MW new emission-free capacity coming online between 2030 and 2032. ORA was downgraded to Neutral at UBS driven by limited earnings upside potential through 2028E and valuation multiples generally in-line with peers. NNE and its unit, HALEU Energy Fuel, enter into a definitive asset purchase agreement with Radnostix and its unit International Isotopes Fluorine Products to acquire strategic US nuclear fuel processing assets as deal consideration is $9.50M cash and $4M in Nano Nuclear common stock
• Bank and broker sector: another brutal trading day for banks as BAC, C, WFC, JPM, ZION, PNC, MS and others extend declines from September as the financial space seeing weakness with Treasury yields impacting consumer spending/lending. NU shares rose after the company issued a statement yesterday denying that it was pursuing an acquisition of Monzo, a U.K. fintech firm; in research, FHB was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral at JP Morgan as believes the recent increase in the Fed funds rate creates a more favorable earnings setup noting roughly half of First Hawaiians loans are floating rate, while its cost of interest bearing deposits is the lowest in JPMC's coverage universe.
• Transport sector: CHRW was added to Wells Fargo to its Tactical Ideas List saying they see  a favorable setup for the company as brokerage margins improve, share gains persist, and liability concerns appear overdone. HUBG was upgraded from Sell to Hold at Stifel with $29 tgt saying although financial reporting uncertainty and a depressed earnings base continue to warrant caution, the firm believes the decline in the share price has brought the risk/reward into better balance. CP reached a tentative, five-year agreement with 250 train operators in Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.

• BJRI +3%; was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho and raise tgt to $76 as the firm upped the company's Q3 same-store-sales growth estimate to 5.5% from 4.6% citing its strong channel checks; sees upside to current same-store-sales growth and margin expectations thru ’27.
• CEG +3%; shares rose after the power company and AMZN announce a 20-year power-purchase agreement. The deal is expected to spur over $3 billion in infrastructure investments, add 190 MW new emission-free capacity coming online between 2030 and 2032.
• NU +3%; shares rose after the company issued a statement yesterday denying that it was pursuing an acquisition of Monzo, a U.K. fintech firm.
• RKLB +2%; after announced its largest commercial launch agreement to date for its Electron rocket, a 20-mission contract with Japanese Earth observation company Synspective.
• SNPS +12%; after delivering much better than expected initial FY27 guidance at Investor Day, an uptick on LT EDA and IP growth targets, meaningful OM expansion, an explanation of the underlying secular drivers across its product portfolio, and incremental partnerships with AWS and OpenAI.
• VICR +11%; as raised its Q3 sequential growth forecast to more than 30%, up from more than 20% saying the raise is driven by increased royalties from the previously announced first non-exclusive license to Vertical Power Delivery (VPD).

• CTVA -83%; shares tumbled after successfully spinning off its advanced seed and Genetics business into Vylor Inc. (new symbol VYLR), an Independent company, and will move forward as a leading, pure-play global Crop Protection company. Corteva shareholders will receive 1 Vylor share for every 1 Corteva share held on Sept 24, 2026.
• FHTX -40%; after saying they would slash 40% of its workforce and cut expenses to extend its cash runway after scrapping a drug development partnership with LLY; added that the companies also were scrapping a second collaborative cancer program and don't anticipate any further Joint projects.
• LQDA -14%; as shares tumbled for a second day after plunging Wednesday after a court ruling in its ongoing patent dispute with UTHR over its Yutrepia drug. The court said Liqudia’s motion to strike is denied, Judge Richard G. Andrews wrote in a court filing.
• NKTR -16%; after data as presented 1-year Phase 2b data for rezpegaldesleukin at EADV Congress 2026 in Vienna. Alopecia areata results showed durable benefit after stopping treatment, with some patients continuing to improve during follow-up. Atopic dermatitis maintenance data indicated sustained disease control on less frequent dosing, with additional patients improving over time.
• PHM -2%; amid more weakness in homebuilders as rising Treasury yields are lifting mortgage rates and hurting the housing sector (DHI, KBH, TOL) and mortgage companies (RKT).

Closing Recap

Thursday, October 01, 2026

U.S. stocks started the day flat, came under pressure early to late morning as Treasury yields extended their recent run higher as the 10-yr and 30-yr yield both hit more than 20 years high again along with higher oil prices, but bottomed around noon to close higher on the first day of the month. Treasury yields began to pullback mid-afternoon, taking pressure after interest rate sensitive stocks and sectors that have been impacted by the relentless push higher for yields. The S&P 500 bounced more than 60 points off morning lows to end the day higher, once again paced by strength in technology (XLK) as semis (SOX) and software (IGV) rallied, along with industrials (XLI) and Energy (XLE). It was an overall lackluster trading day for the major averages as we approach the start of Q3 earnings in a few weeks, midterm elections in a month and markets moving on every economic data point, headline over the U.S./Iran war, and Fed speakers which have been plentiful.

• August construction spending rises +0.9% (vs. consensus unchanged) to $2.203 trln, vs July -0.1% (prev -0.5%) while August private construction spending +1.1%, public spending +0.2%
• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 54.5 in September (vs. consensus 55.0) vs 54.6 in August while the prices paid index jumped to 77.9 in September vs. consensus 72.3 and above the 71.1 in August; new orders index 55.3 in September vs 53.7 in August and employment index 52.7 vs 51.2 in August.

• Meanwhile the U.S. dollar remains higher, up over 3% this year as the euro hit its lowest point in 17 months, below $1.13 for the first time since May 2025 (low of 1.1216), as the buck has been rising the past couple of months, thanks in part to the largest quarterly rise in Treasury yields since 1994. The euro declined nearly 2.5% in September, its largest monthly decline since July 2025 as Europe is facing a range of political uncertainties as well, with a hotly contested French election next year. Data on Wednesday showed US inflation rose less than expected in August, along with downward revisions to July's figure.
• Note the U.S. dollar clocked its sixth straight quarter of gains against a basket of currencies by the end of September, its longest such stretch since 2022 when US rates were rising more quickly than those elsewhere. The dollar index was last up 0.65% on the day to 102.10, around its highest level since mid-May. The dollar was up 0.5% at 158.16 after falling 1.4% against the Japanese currency last month.

• Restaurant sector: BJRI was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho and raise tgt to $76 as the firm upped the company's Q3 same-store-sales growth estimate to 5.5% from 4.6% citing its strong channel checks; sees upside to current same-store-sales growth and margin expectations thru ’27.
• Casinos (WYNN, MLCO, LVS): Macau gross gaming revenue fell 1.2% year over year in September to 18.1B patacas ($2.24B), according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. The gaming revenue tally was below the consensus expectation for 2.2% growth during the month and 17.5% below the mark from August. Notably, the GGR level was the lowest for any month in 2026. For the first eight months of 2026, Macau GGR is up 3.2% year over year to 187.1B patacas ($23.1B).

• BYDDF global sales rose for a fifth straight month in September, buoyed by strong exports as vehicle sales rose 17% y/y to 463,561 units last month, easing from a 17.8% increase in August, while overseas shipments of passenger vehicles and pickups jumped 153.9% to 179,877 units. The Chinese EV maker sold 3,131,576 vehicles in the first nine months of 2026.
• LI said it delivered 31,817 vehicles in September 2026, down -6.29% from 33,951 vehicles a year ago and -15.56% m/m, returning to a year-on-year decline after a rebound in August. The company's cumulative deliveries, however, reached 1.83M as of September 30, up from 1.43M y/y. Li Auto delivered 99,964 vehicles in the third quarter, up 7.24% y/y and 1.66% from the second quarter.
• NIO said it delivered 37,408 vehicles in September, up 7.65% y/y from 34,749 and 4.39% from August, helping the company meet its third-quarter delivery guidance; Q3 deliveries climbed to 109,178 vehicles from 87,071 a year ago. Deliveries for the first nine months of 2026 rose 49.2% to 300,301 vehicles. NIO-brand deliveries jumped 55.3% y/y to 21,318 vehicles. FIREFLY deliveries rose 26.9% to 7,327 vehicles but ONVO deliveries fell -42.5% to 8,763 vehicles from 15,246 a year earlier.
• XPEV announced that it plans to give its G9L flagship SUV a global launch at the 2026 Paris Motor Show on October 12/said the G9L is planned for production in Guangzhou, China, and Graz, Austria. XPEV also reported delivering 41,256 vehicles in September 2026, marking a 5% increase from August. The XPENG L03 sedan was a key contributor, accounting for over 10,000 units.
• TSLA Q3 delivery numbers are expected tomorrow, Friday, October 2 with analyst consensus about 462,000 vehicles. Tesla’s own company-compiled sell-side consensus is 461,974 deliveries, with a median of 463,406. That would be about 7% below the Q3 2025 record of 497,099 and roughly 4% below Q2 2026’s 480,126.

• Energy sector: oil prices rising again, energy stocks up again with the XLE up 38% YTD! OXY was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Goldman Sachs with $69 tgt on differentiated advanced recovery approach, strong outlook for debt reduction and dividend growth potential, self-help initiative with a target of $4.0 bn in cash flow improvement by 2030, and attractive risk/reward. BP was upgraded from Equal Weight to Overweight at Wells Fargo and raised tgt to $57.

• Bank and broker sector: another brutal trading day for banks as BAC, C, WFC, JPM, ZION, PNC, MS and others extend declines from September as the financial space seeing weakness with Treasury yields impacting consumer spending/lending. NU shares rose after the company issued a statement yesterday denying that it was pursuing an acquisition of Monzo, a U.K. fintech firm; in research, FHB was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral at JP Morgan as believes the recent increase in the Fed funds rate creates a more favorable earnings setup noting roughly half of First Hawaiians loans are floating rate, while its cost of interest bearing deposits is the lowest in JPMC's coverage universe.
• Insurance sector: JP Morgan said AON, MRSH favorites in P&C Brokerage and Underweight on RYAN as thinks commercial P&C Brokerage stocks are attractively valued in the aggregate following their sell-off in Q326. The personal lines Brokers also seem undervalued vs their growth prospects, but the overhang from Ai is an impediment to be more positive on stocks.
• REIT (XLRE) sector has come under pressure the last few weeks amid the quick ascent of the 10-year Treasury rate above 5.3% (sector down roughly 9% since late August). Within the REIT industry, arguably the most bond-like sector, which is often most (inversely) correlated to the ebbs and flows of the 10-year Treasury rate, is the net lease sector (down roughly 14% since late August). As such, net lease REITs have experienced a significant selloff over the past several weeks as the 10-year quickly climbed over 50bps.

• GUTS files one-for-twelve reverse stock split of common stock.
• LQDA shares tumbled for a second day after plunging Wednesday after a court ruling in its ongoing patent dispute with UTHR over its Yutrepia drug. The court said Liqudia’s motion to strike is denied, Judge Richard G. Andrews wrote in a court filing.
• NKTR announces new Rezpegaldesleukin data supporting long-term durability and disease improvement in patients with alopecia areata and atopic dermatitis at EADV Congress 2026.
• REGN was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus with an $850 price target saying the recent share pullback provides an attractive entry point and believes the shares are in the early stages of solidifying a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
• SNY reached an agreement with REGN to jointly develop and commercialize new immunology drugs; the deal is worth up to $8B, including $1B upfront with Regeneron to jointly develop four long-acting immunology therapies.
• STTK said it plans to evaluate SL-325 in phase 2 clinical trial in patients with moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa.

• Aerospace sector: RKLB shares rose earlier after the company said it had signed multi-year launch agreement for 20 new missions for its Electron launch vehicle with Tokyo-based Earth observation co Synspective. Contract is largest commercial launch contract for Electron in RKLB's history; brings total Electron missions for Synspective to 47.
• Chemical sector: CTVA shares tumbled after successfully spinning off its advanced seed and Genetics business into Vylor Inc. (new symbol VYLR), an Independent company, and will move forward as a leading, pure-play global Crop Protection company. Corteva shareholders will receive 1 Vylor share for every 1 Corteva share held on Sept 24, 2026.

• GOOGL unveiled Gemini 4 Argon, its new Frontier model and the top model in the Gemini 4 Generation. Pricing: $2 per 1M input tokens and $10 per 1M output tokens, with cached input priced 95% lower. Argon can generate up to 1M output tokens in a single trajectory, up from 64K previously.
• NBIS has acquired Inferize, an AI inference optimization startup, with terms undisclosed. Inferize’s technology is designed to reduce model “cold starts,” cutting the time GPUs sit idle while models load and new capacity spins up.
• SPCX Ai unit held talks over the summer about leasing Computing capacity to MSFT, The Information reported citing people familiar with the matter, a sign of how fully Elon Musk has embraced the neocloud business after his initial reluctance. Selling Computing power has quickly become one of SpaceX’s most lucrative businesses, generating billions of dollars a month in commitments from compute-constrained Ai Labs including Anthropic and Google, with more deals still to kick in
• AMZN’s AWS is raising reserved GPU pricing by ~15% across NVDA B300, B200 & H100 capacity starting next week. Market participants note this is another sign premium Ai compute remains supply constrained and a strong readthrough for NBIS, CRWV, IREN as available capacity keeps getting more valuable.

• Hardware & Component sector: VICR raised its Q3 sequential growth forecast to more than 30%, up from more than 20% saying the raise is driven by increased royalties from the previously announced first non-exclusive license to Vertical Power Delivery (VPD).
• IT Services & Consulting: ACN reported Q4 revs $18.7B vs. est. $18B, with Q4 new bookings of $22.2B while raised saying it now expects annual revenue growth between 3% and 6%, compared with analysts' average estimate of 3.9%; the results and guidance help IBM, CTSH, INFY as well as software stocks.
• EDA Sector: SNPS provides FY26-FY30 financial targets; sees FY27 adjusted EPS $19.04-$19.12, vs. consensus $17.69 and sees FY27 revenue $11.1B-$11.2B, vs. consensus $10.8B; said intends to repurchase $1B in shares over coming months.
• Software sector: APP shares down for an 8th straight day and 12 of last 13 to 52-week lows - negative comments by Wells Fargo yesterday saying, "acceleration in eComm Pixel Adoption driven by no/low traffic sites; as inflection appears to be a false start." TCEHY signed its largest overseas lease deal with ORCL to access about 100,000 advanced AI chips that were not available in China, the Financial Times reported. Tencent this year agreed to a five-year lease across multiple Oracle data centers in south-east Asia. The deal is estimated to be worth about $7B, with an upfront payment of about 30%.

• AVGO to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips, as Anthropic’s IPO prospectus documents extensive partnerships with a handful of big tech firms. The company's relationship with Anthropic spans compute supply, equipment leasing and financing.
• NVDA completed final $10B installment of its $30B OpenAI commitment as the round closed at an $852B valuation. OpenAI is already targeting another ~$30B raise around $1.4T as its capital needs keep climbing with the compute buildout.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, October 1, 2026

• HPE Barclays raised the firm's price target on HPE to $83 from $79 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the networking investor day. The company raised its fiscal 2027 networking outlook to high-teens to low-20s percent growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says HPE sees Helios as an over $1B networking opportunity over the next two years.
• JBL Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Jabil to $378 from $426 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a fiscal Q4 beat, driven by strength in intelligent infrastructure and AI-related revenue growth momentum, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes Jabil is seeing strong AI momentum.
• SMMT Barclays raised the firm's price target on Summit Therapeutics to $20 from $18 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's equity deal with AstraZeneca could provide longer-term upside but the next 12 months are all about Summit's lung cancer updates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays sees a high likelihood of squamous success but are cautious on the company's larger non-squamous opportunity as well as competitor dynamics.

• SNPS BofA analyst Vivek Arya raised the firm's price target on Synopsys to $600 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm "came away impressed" from the company's investor day, which featured targets implying pro-forma EPS compound annual growth of 23% from FY26-30, "well ahead" of consensus. Following the meeting, the firm raised its own FY27 and FY28 pro-forma EPS estimates 7% and 16%, respectively.

• HPE Citi raised the firm's price target on HPE to $92 from $76 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the networking day. The company surprised investors with a near-term financial update that reflected "strong" longer-term confidence in sustained growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi founds HPE's messaging "incrementally bullish" for the shares.
• VVV Citi analyst Steven Zaccone lowered the firm's price target on Valvoline to $34 from $41 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm reduced the company's fiscal 2027 estimates to reflect more conservative gross margins following this week's business update.

• AMZN Goldman Sachs analysts added Amazon.com to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update. Goldman believes Amazon is well positioned for compounded revenue growth and operating margin expansion on a multi-year horizon. It has a Buy rating on the shares with a $375 price target.
• BURL Goldman Sachs analysts added Burlington Stores to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update. Goldman believes the company's sales drivers and self-help initiatives will boost margins in the years ahead. It has a Buy rating on the shares with a $382 price target.
• HII Goldman Sachs analysts added HII to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update. Goldman believes the company offers pure U.S. Navy shipbuilder exposure as the government continues to focus on the domestic shipbuilding base. It has a Buy rating on the shares with a $439 price target.
• JCI Goldman Sachs analysts added Johnson Controls to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update. Goldman believes the company is in the early stages of a sales and earnings transformation. It has a Buy rating on the shares with a $191 price target.
• OXY Goldman Sachs analysts added Occidental to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update. Goldman believes the company is employing advanced recovery techniques to extend the life of depleting shale oil reserves as it ramps capital efficiency. It has a Buy rating on the shares with a $69 price target.

• ELVN JPMorgan initiated coverage of Enliven with an Overweight rating and $75 price target. The company's ELVN-001 can first address second-line post-allosteric chronic myeloid leukemia patients and then expand into frontline patients, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Enliven is well positioned to become the treatment of choice for post-asciminib patients and frontline given its broad mutational coverage and retained activity against mutations associated with asciminib. It models U.S. peak sales of $5B.
• LIFE JPMorgan downgraded Ethos to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $37. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade. Ethos' risk/reward is more balanced after the stock's strong run in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan would wait to see continued momentum in the company's growth before becoming more positive again.
• AON JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Aon plc to $362 from $412 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and target in the insurance broker group as a part of a Q3 earnings preview. JPMorgan thinks commercial property and casualty brokerage stocks are attractively valued following their sell-off in Q3. The personal lines brokers also seem undervalued versus their growth prospects, but the overhang from AI "is an impediment to be more positive on stocks," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BRO JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Brown & Brown to $83 from $80 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and target in the insurance broker group as a part of a Q3 earnings preview. JPMorgan thinks commercial property and casualty brokerage stocks are attractively valued following their sell-off in Q3. The personal lines brokers also seem undervalued versus their growth prospects, but the overhang from AI "is an impediment to be more positive on stocks," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GSHD JPMorgan analyst Pablo Singzon lowered the firm's price target on Goosehead Insurance to $60 from $68 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and target in the insurance broker group as a part of a Q3 earnings preview. JPMorgan thinks commercial property and casualty brokerage stocks are attractively valued following their sell-off in Q3. The personal lines brokers also seem undervalued versus their growth prospects, but the overhang from AI "is an impediment to be more positive on stocks," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• FHB JPMorgan analyst Anthony Elian upgraded First Hawaiian to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $29, down from $30, ahead of the Q3 report. The firm has a positive stance on the shares into earnings, saying First Hawaiian has one of the most asset sensitive balance sheets in the group. This could result in the company lifting its net interest margin outlook alongside the Q3 report, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MU JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterates an Overweight rating in Micron with a $1,540 price target saying the company reported a "decisive beat-and-raise" quarter. Micron issued an upgraded view on supply/demand tightness and confirmed a near-certain capital return pivot, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes these drivers indicate a "strong multi-year earnings power narrative from here." It upped estimates for Micron materially.

• SPOT KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Spotify to $660 from $680 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm's latest U.S. Audio Survey was largely status quo, with Spotify retaining its leadership position and new features showing interest. Collectively, KeyBanc believes this is supporting best-in-class retention, which supports future price increases and reduces the likelihood of AI-assistant cancellations. An AI add-on tier also continues to appeal to a subset of respondents, reinforcing the firm's view this is more of an ARPU vector.

• DOW Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Dow Inc. to $32 from $35 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the chemicals and packaging group as part of a September quarter earnings preview. The firm says China-finished product exports remain high, which are taking share from demand elsewhere. In addition, higher interest rates are also dampening demand, especially housing related, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho expects the electronics and medical markets to be strongest with durable products the weakest.
• EMN Mizuho analyst John Roberts lowered the firm's price target on Eastman Chemical to $80 from $85 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the chemicals and packaging group as part of a September quarter earnings preview. The firm says China-finished product exports remain high, which are taking share from demand elsewhere. In addition, higher interest rates are also dampening demand, especially housing related, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho expects the electronics and medical markets to be strongest with durable products the weakest.
• WLK Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Westlake to $72 from $88 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the chemicals and packaging group as part of a September quarter earnings preview. The firm says China-finished product exports remain high, which are taking share from demand elsewhere. In addition, higher interest rates are also dampening demand, especially housing related, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho expects the electronics and medical markets to be strongest with durable products the weakest.
• ALB Mizuho analyst John Roberts lowered the firm's price target on Albemarle to $130 from $140 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the chemicals and packaging group as part of a September quarter earnings preview. The firm says China-finished product exports remain high, which are taking share from demand elsewhere. In addition, higher interest rates are also dampening demand, especially housing related, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho expects the electronics and medical markets to be strongest with durable products the weakest.
• ESI Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Element Solutions to $42 from $45 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the chemicals and packaging group as part of a September quarter earnings preview. The firm says China-finished product exports remain high, which are taking share from demand elsewhere. In addition, higher interest rates are also dampening demand, especially housing related, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho expects the electronics and medical markets to be strongest with durable products the weakest.

• DHI Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of D.R. Horton with an Equal Weight rating and $151 price target. The firm views the company's scale, financing platform and "unique" Forestar relationship as "clear positives." However, Morgan Stanley is cautious on the first-time home buyer segment given affordability constraints. As such, it sees limited upside to D.R. Horton shares.
• KBH Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Kramer initiated coverage of KB Home with an Underweight rating and $39 price target. The firm says home affordability, KB's owned-land exposure and the firm's below-consensus earnings estimates keep it cautious on the shares. KB owns 60% of its lots and has the group's highest leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PHM Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Kramer initiated coverage of PulteGroup with an Equal Weight rating and $128 price target. The firm is "leaning positively" on the shares given PulteGroup's diversified model across brands, buyer types and price points. However, Morgan Stanley sees limited upside from current share levels.
• TOL Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Toll Brothers with an Overweight rating and $159 price target. The company's affluent buyers and pricing power support more resilient margins and earnings relative to peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Meanwhile, the firm says Toll trades at the lowest multiple in the homebuilder space.
• NVR Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of NVR with an Underweight rating and $5,058 price target. The company's land-light model, net cash and buybacks warrant a premium valuation to peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm says NVR is not shielded from affordability and margin pressure.

• VICR Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton raised the firm's price target on Vicor to $350 from $320 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company raised its Q3 revenue outlook for the second time this quarter, reflecting higher revenue from its recently announced non-exclusive Vertical Powering Delivery royalty agreement with an AI OEM, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Vicor didn't specify what drove the upside, but it likely reflects catch-up payments from prior quarters, consistent with past licensing agreements, the firm added.

• FDS Stifel analyst Shlomo Rosenbaum raised the firm's price target on FactSet to $292 from $254 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The underlying fundamentals of the business are improving, says the analyst, who notes that the company's win rates seem to be going up, the pace of innovation is increasing, and management believes that FY26 likely represents a bottoming of the operating margin. The underlying momentum of the business "seems to be higher than what the guidance implies," the analyst added in a post-earnings note.

• RBLX Wells Fargo added Roblox to the firm's Q4 Tactical Ideas List. The firm is positive on Roblox's setup into Q3 EPS. Even incorporating a GTA 6 impact to November, Wells still expects Q4 bookings guidance to be 5% ahead. The setup post EPS looks favorable as well given low 2027 bookings expectations, meaningfully easier comparisons and new product catalysts, the firm adds. Wells has an Overweight rating on the shares with a price target of $64.
• HPE Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on HPE to $63 from $54 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says the company's Networking Investor Day provided a positive strategy overview and increased FY27 guide and long-term growth outlook. Wells sees Juniper integration as better than expected, and believes share gain execution will be a focus.
• FDS Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on FactSet to $250 from $210 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported an Q4 beat driven by AI momentum, though FY27 guidance came in below Street on EPS, revenue, and organic ASV at the midpoints, and above on adjusted operating margins. Management expects FY26 to be the margin floor.
• CCL Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Carnival to $34 from $36 as the firm takes a more conservative stance on fuel, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The market breathed a sigh of relief as concerns around Carnival's Q4 proved unfounded, the firm notes. The company soundly beat Q3 yield expectations, and management raised Q4 yield growth guidance.
• OLN Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Olin to $16 from $20 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm cites recent pricing declines across CAPV. While there may be some traction near term on temporary supply constraints, Wells sees little fundamental improvement as it looks to next year.
• MSFT Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin raised the firm's price target on Microsoft to $725 from $700 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Wells also added Microsoft to its Q4 "Tactical Ideas list." Microsoft shares offer a "favorable tactical setup" into Q4 given a "number of key catalysts," including the realization of its AI advantage, Ignite conference in November, and new segment reporting, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells believes momentum is "shifting back to" Microsoft in the mega cap technology space as the company "delivers on AI monetization story alongside balanced investment approach."
• HXL Wells Fargo added Hexcel to the firm's Q4 Tactical Ideas List. Overall, Wells' Overweight rating reflects its view that Hexcel can outgrow and outperform aero peers as the long-awaited widebody production ramp comes through, including a doubling positive of EPS by the end of the decade. Hexcel currently trades at 17-times EV/EBITDA, a 20% discount to aero peers, as compared to its historical small premium to the group.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: IDT IVA JEF MTN TRAK

• Bank America Future Car Conference 2026, 9/28
• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/28-9/30, in Scottsdale, AZ

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Prices M/M for July
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20 city index M/M for July
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for September
• 10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job openings for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Services Index for September
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AIR CNXC

• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/28-9/30, in Scottsdale, AZ
• G2E Global Gaming Expo Meetings, 9/29-10/1, in Las Vegas
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Communications Infrastructure Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago
• William Blair Biotech Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago, IL
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for September

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Income M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q4-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP PCE Price Index M/M for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance goods Trade Balance for August
• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Dallas Fed PCE for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BSET MU PRGS

• G2E Global Gaming Expo Meetings, 9/29-10/1, in Las Vegas
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Communications Infrastructure Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago
• William Blair Biotech Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago, IL

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for August
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for September
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: NKE

• Monthly Auto sales data for September

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for August
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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