Early Look

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

After a non-stop rally on Monday and Tuesday, U.S. futures are quiet overnight, looking slightly lower. There is just no quit in the U.S. stock market as the Nasdaq Composite's advanced nearly 2% on Tuesday, rising for a 10th straight day of gains while the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, putting the broad benchmark within 0.2% below its record-high close on January 27 of 6,978.60 (advanced for the 9^th time in 10 days) with its intraday record high standing at 7,002.28 (reached Jan 28^th). A long cry from the down -10% levels just two weeks ago when oil prices soared along with Treasury yields on the Iran/US war and rising inflation weighed on investors minds. But once again, a quick/sharp “V” shaped rally has brought markets back to highs, led by the heavily weighted technology sector. The semiconductor index (SOX) rose for a 10^th day as well, hitting new all-time highs. Oil prices retreated Tuesday with U.S. WTI crude sliding 7.9% to $91.28 a barrel, the lowest level since March 25 while Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped 4.6% to $94.79. The moves follow the U.S. and Iran signaling that they see room to continue talking. Wholesale inflation for March came in cooler than expected, offering encouraging signs. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index advanced 256 points to 58,134, the Shanghai Index was flat at 4,027, and the Hang Seng Index rose 75 points to 25,947. In Europe, the German DAX is flat at 24,044, while the FTSE 100 is up 10 points to 10,618. @Bluekurtic noted on X, “Nasdaq 100 has pulled off a 10-for-10! $NDX is now positive for 10 consecutive days with a 10%+ gain during this rally. This is only the 5th such case since 1985 and the first since 2009. Not many precedents, but the momentum carried into next 4 weeks with a 100% hit rate.” All eyes remain on Iran after President Trump hinted at progress in ending the Iran war in media interviews late Tuesday, saying that peace talks might restart within two days and an extension of the current two-week ceasefire may not be needed.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317.74 points, or 0.66%, to 48,535.99
• The Nasdaq Composite surged 455.35 points, or 1.96%, to 23,639.08
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 35.17 points, or 1.32% to 2,705.67

• 8:30 AM ET NY Empire Fed Manufacturing for April…est. (-0.5)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for March…est. +2.0%
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for March…est. +1.5%
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for April…est. 37
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC Flows for February

• Earnings After the Close: GSBC HOMB JBHT MIND NKLR SLG

• China Retail Sales, industrial Output for March
• China Q2 GDP

• Walmart (WMT) will redesign its flagship private brand, Great Value, marking its first full brand refresh in more than a decade; said the rebrand reflects its ongoing investment in its private brands, as well as its commitment to evolving alongside consumer preferences.

• China is considering restricting exports of advanced solar panel manufacturing Equipment to the U.S., which could disrupt American clean energy investments and slow efforts to expand domestic solar production, Reuters reported. Such ​a clampdown would risk investments by U.S. firms and set back a race for space-based computing. https://tinyurl.com/2s4w4skd
• SunPower Inc. (SPWR) to restate certain 2025 interim financial statements due to material errors in internal control over financial reporting; estimates for thirty-nine weeks ended September 28, 2025, a decrease in revenues of $13M.

• M&T Bank (MTB) Q1 EPS $4.13 vs. consensus $4.01; Q1 CET1 capital ratio 10.33%; interest income rose nearly 3.4% to $1.75B y/y; non-interest income rose roughly 13% to $689M in Q1; the bank set aside $140 million in provisions for credit losses.
• Pimco has purchased all $400 million of bonds issued by a Blue Owl Capital private credit fund, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The bonds, which mature in September 2028 and were priced to yield 6.5%, were sold by publicly traded fund Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC). The bonds were rated Baa2 by Moody's Ratings, BBB- by S&P Global Ratings, and BBB by Fitch Ratings.
• Robinhood (HOOD) and Webull (BULL) bounced after yesterday the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors.

• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) 10.563M share Secondary priced at $142.00
• Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE) 6.5M share Secondary priced at $62.00

• Broadcom (AVGO) and Meta Platforms (META) extended a deal for custom AI processors as the deal now runs until 2029 and will help Meta build out the computing capacity needed for its AI features.
• Gitlab (GTLB) announced a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI.
• Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) unveiled a suite of new open-source AI models aimed at accelerating progress within quantum computing. Nvidia’s new Ising artificial intelligence model, which launched late Tuesday in Asia, has renewed expectations that AI can improve quantum computing and make it scalable and more useful. (watch shares of US quantum names like IONQ, RGTI, QMCO, QBTS).
• Snap Inc (SNAP) said it would lay off around 16% of its workforce, weeks after activist investor Irenic Capital Management pushed the Snapchat parent to optimize its portfolio and improve performance; estimates Q1 2026 revenue of $1.529B and adj EBITDA of $233M and estimates pre-tax charges of $95M-$130M.
• Spok Holdings (SPOK) announced a strategic realignment designed to reduce costs and sharpen operational focus across its go-to-market functions. These actions will enable the Company to direct resources toward continued investment in its Care Connect Suite and artificial intelligence initiatives.
• TeraWulf Inc (WULF) expects Q1 2026 revenue of $30M-$35M vs. consensus of $39.1M and adj EBITDA of $0-$3M; had cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $3.1B and total debt of $5.8B; TeraWulf 47.4M share Spot Secondary priced at $19.00 as the deal size was increased to $900M from $800M.
• Software investor Thoma Bravo struck a strategic partnership with Alphabet’s Google Cloud to help the private equity firm’s portfolio companies accelerate their adoption of AI – Bloomberg reported.

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Tax day today – don’t forget! U.S. stock markets adding to its recent rally, as the S&P 500 Index looks to close at its first record high since January, as investors add to recent rally amid optimism over the ceasefire between the US and Iran and robust corporate fundamentals thus far in the early stages of earnings season. Reminder S&P 500 (SPX) all time high levels stand at: Record-high close on January 27 of 6,978.60 with its intraday record high standing at 7,002.28 (reached Jan 28th). Meanwhile, technology (XLK) continues to be the market leader, pushing along as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is trying for an 11^th straight day of upside, led today by beaten up software (IGV), as semis (SOX) are mixed after all-time highs yesterday. Consumer Staples (XLP) the biggest drag in the S&P early along with other defensive sectors like REITs (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU), while Materials (XLB) slide the most.

Wall Street rallied sharply on Monday and Tuesday as crude oil prices have fallen from highs below $100 per barrel in absence of major new developments in the Middle East. However, there are many unanswered questions ahead of a potential second round of talks with Iran, including the future of their uranium enrichment/nuclear program as well as the Strait of Hormuz shipping passage. Rate cut hopes by the Fed dimmed this morning after Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on CNBC this morning that while she sees no imminent need for the central bank to change its interest rate target setting, it’s possible cuts or even hikes could lie ahead. “I think that rates are in a good place,” Hammack said on CNBC. “ Oil prices dipping again while Iran’s military warns it will block all trade in the Red Sea, Gulf and Sea of Oman if the US naval blockade continues, saying any threat to its ships would be “a prelude” to violating the ceasefire.

This morning the President said on Trust Social: realDonaldTrump tweets: "China is very Happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also - And the World. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran. President Xi will give me a big, Fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting??? BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to - far better than anyone else!!! President DJT"

• NY Fed's Empire State current business conditions index +11.0 in April well above the consensus for negative reading of -0.5 and vs -0.2 in March; new orders index +19.3 in April vs +6.4 in March; prices paid index +51.0 in April vs +36.6 in March; employment index at +9.8 in April vs +5.8 in March and the NY Fed's Empire State six-month business conditions index +19.6 in April vs +31.0 in March.
• NAHB April index of current single-family home sales 37 versus revised 41 in March (previous 42); U.S. April NAHB Housing market index 34 (consensus 37) versus 38 in March (previous 38); Aril index of home sales over next six months 42 versus 49 in March (previous 49) and prospective buyers 22 versus 25 in March (previous 25).

• In Solar: Reuters reported that China is considering restricting exports of advanced solar panel manufacturing Equipment to the U.S., which could disrupt American clean energy investments and slow efforts to expand domestic solar production. Such ​a clampdown would risk investments by U.S. firms and set back a race for space-based computing. https://tinyurl.com/2s4w4skd ; SEDG was downgraded from Neutral to Sell at Goldman Sachs and lowered tgt to $31 from $36 primarily based on its fundamental view that SEDG's core end markets are not growing nearly as fast as current consensus expectations imply and it thinks the company's sales/margin recovery is more than fully appreciated in the current valuation.
• More large cap banks reporting this morning:  BAC reported Q1 EPS $1.11 vs. est. $1.01 on revs $30.43B vs. est. $29.93B; Q1 FICC Trading revs ex DVA $3.5B vs. est. $3.78B; Q1 equity trading revs $2.83B vs. est. $2.51B; Q1 provision for credit losses of $1.3B; Q1 net interest Income grew 9% YoY to $15.7B; Q1 Net Income of $8.6B; EPS of $1.11, up 25% YoY; disclosed it has about $20B in private-credit exposure. MS reported Q1 EPS $3.43 tops consensus $2.98 on revs rising 16% y/y to $20.6B vs. est. $19.71B; Q1 Investment Banking Revenue $2.12B vs. est. $2.04B, Q1 FICC Trading Revenue $3.36B vs. est. $2.89B; Q1 provision for Credit Losses $98M vs. est. $80.2M; Q1 Wealth Management revenue $8.5B, record quarter; Q1 FICC sales & trading rev $3.36B, est. $2.89B; says with respect to investment management, private credit is less than 1% of our total aum, well under $20B.
• In Ai News: Bloomberg reported last night that Anthropic has received several offers from investors for a new round that could value them at $800B or higher. Discussions still early and no deal has been reached, October still discussed as a potential IPO timing. https://tinyurl.com/3jaz8ecv . The Information noted last night that Anthropic has shifted Claude Enterprise to usage-based billing, raising costs for heavy users. Another report in The Information said OpenAI plans to start pricing some ChatGPT ads based on whether people click on the ads rather than just how many people see them, an agency executive who spoke with OpenAI employees and works with ChatGPT advertisers said https://tinyurl.com/3tbfn54b

• GTLB +5%; as collaborates with Google Cloud to bring Agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI.
• HOOD +4%; along with gains in BULL after the SEC officially approved the termination of the Pattern Day Trader rule, which previously required a minimum account balance of $25,000 for day trading.
• IONQ +15%; along with gains in RGTI, QBTS, QMCO after NVDA unveiled a suite of new open-source AI models aimed at accelerating progress within quantum computing. Nvidia’s new Ising artificial intelligence model launched late Tuesday in Asia.
• NET +4%; was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral based on: 1) Cloudflare's infrastructure positioning across multiple growth opportunities across Delivery, AppSec, Naas, SASE, IaaS, AIaaS; 2) Q1 inputs are solid; 3) the landscape is shifting more towards EDPs, with Cloudflare a dominant player here.
• SNAP +14%; said it would lay off around 16% of its workforce, weeks after activist investor Irenic Capital Management pushed the Snapchat parent to optimize its portfolio and improve performance; estimates Q1 2026 revenue of $1.529B and adj EBITDA of $233M and estimates pre-tax charges of $95M-$130M
• SYM +5%; was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson and raised its tgt to $70 from $57 saying the company has an unparalleled AI-enabled technology moat which is years beyond its closest peers. Symbotic's visibility remains unparalleled and its balance sheet is "flush with cash”.

• ASML -5%; posted stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings and lifted its 2026 revenue outlook as AI boosts demand for its equipment; said 2026 revenue will now be between 36B-400B euros ($42B-$47B), up from a previous forecast of 34B-39B euros (ests $37.7B), but guided Q2 revs 8.4B-9.0B euros vs ests 9.07B euros
• DOO -34%; Canadian recreational vehicle manufacturer DOO withdrew its financial outlook for the 2027 fiscal year, saying it faces a C$500M ($363M) hit from recent changes by the Trump administration to its tariffs (shares of rival RV maker PII also declined in sympathy)
• SEDG -5%; after being downgraded from Neutral to Sell at Goldman Sachs and lowered tgt to $31 from $36 primarily based on its fundamental view that SEDG's core end markets are not growing nearly as fast as current consensus expectations imply
• WULF -6%; said it expects Q1 2026 revenue of $30M-$35M vs. consensus of $39.1M and adj EBITDA of $0-$3M; had cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $3.1B and total debt of $5.8B; TeraWulf 47.4M share Spot Secondary priced at $19.00 as the deal size was increased to $900M from $800M.

Closing Recap

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

U.S. markets truly remarkable, ending the day at highs and extending an incredible two week run! After falling into “correction territory” for the Nasdaq in March (defined as down more than -10% from highs) following the start of the U.S./Iran war that began at the end of February, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) just made it ten straight consecutive winning sessions as semiconductors (SOX) hit new all-time highs (also up a 10^th straight day). The S&P 500 remains not far from all-time highs as market losses in March have been completely wiped out led by a run in tech. Dow Transports reached another new record high topping 21,000. US stocks rose on Tuesday while oil prices fell as President Trump signaled he’s open to further talks with Iran, stoking optimism for a long-term truce. Cooler PPI inflation than economists expected for March also helped stock markets (more below), and both precious metals and crypto as well while sending the dollar and Treasury yields lower. Banks were mixed after earnings (Citi, JPM, WFC reported today), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) jumped over 2% along with gains in Communications (XLC) as nearly all eleven S&P sectors closed higher, but Mag 7 led again (AMZN, META, GOOGL, TSLA, NVDA). Inflation data for March PPI showed continued move higher, but not as much as expect by economists. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) slipped back around the 18 level today. @charliebilello noted on X, “the 38% decline in the $VIX over the last 2 weeks is the 7th biggest volatility crash in history.”

Interesting stats: Coming into the day, the best S&P 500 stock winners YTD no surprise with memory and optical and photonic names leading the pack with SNDK +246%, CIEN +95%, GLW +94%, WDC +87% and STX +79%. The semiconductor index (SOX) also made it a 10^th straight day of gains in a row, up 15% this month and hit a new all-time high today with equipment stocks strong again. INTC snapped its 9-day win streak, but NVDA made it a 10^th straight winning day. Technology (XLK) overall ripping this month up 11% so far in April with the next best winner Discretionary (XLY) and Industrials up over 7% while Energy (XLE) the only notable laggard -9% in April after leading higher in March.

The IMF laid out three scenarios for global growth given the uncertainty of the conflict. If the war is short-lived and damage to oil facilities is limited, global growth is projected to rise 3.1% this year, slower than the 3.4% pace of the past two years. Absent the war, global growth would have been revised upward by 0.1%. The IMF also raised its inflation forecast for the year. Global inflation, which had been projected to drop, is now expected to head higher by 0.7% to 4.4% this year due to the global energy shock. That would be up from 4.1% last year.

• U.S. small-business sentiment dropped to an 11-month low in March as the National Federation of Independent Business said its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.0 points to 95.8 last month, the lowest level since April 2025, and pushed it below its 52-year average of 98.0.

• Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar declined  as odds of interest rate cuts by the Fed increased slightly following a somewhat cooler-than-expected inflation report, as the March PPI wholesale price gauge prints 0.5%, matching February's downwardly revised figure, but much lower than the 1.1% forecast by economists. The 10-year yield trades at 4.258%, on path for its lowest close since March 18. The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls 0.4%, a seventh straight red day to the 98 level which matched its price point prior to the Iran/US war back in late February. Bitcoin +1.45% paring gains back to $74,250 after topping $75K earlier (failing to top its 100dma of $75,175).

• In Electric vehicles: LCID said Ayar Third Investment Company to purchase $550 million of Lucid's convertible preferred stock; UBER to increase total investment in Lucid to $500M with an additional commitment of $200M; Lucid and Uber expand commitments to global robotaxi service to a total of at least 35K Lucid vehicles. LCID also announces $300M common stock offering, total raise $1.05B. The WSJ reported RIVN is joining with Redwood Materials to reuse EV batteries for energy storage -- the largest repurposed-battery energy storage system for an automotive manufacturer in the U.S. CHPT shares jumped after an SEC filing showed its CEO Wilmer bought 46,847 shares of about $250K in shares on 4/13.
• In Auto Retail: KMX posted Q4 results that beat on top/bottom line ($0.34/$5.95B vs. $0.23/$5.71B) but there was some concern in the CarMax Auto Finance unit, were income decreased -9.8% to $143.7M, driven by lower total interest margin resulting from a decline in auto loans outstanding following the $900M non-prime securitization in Q3; recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $141.3M during 4Q, driven by the combination of a significant decline in market capitalization resulting from the decrease in its share price.
• In Auto Equipment: INVZ was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs, as they now expect more measured new order levels, and to better reflect the competitive landscape.

• In Retailers: Seaport Research with three rating changes as they: 1) upgraded VFC from Neutral to Buy with $24 PT as believes that Vans is at a bottom, especially in terms of demand and also likes how FY27 sets up for TNF and Timberland, largely due to what it suspects are healthy fall orders for each brand; 2) CROX upgraded from Neutral to Buy with $135 PT as they believe that Crocs demand has picked up this Spring, partly due to strong sandal demand, and it also believes that weak Heydude demand may be bottoming; 3) BIRK upgraded to Buy and $52 PT as less concerned about fall setup and believes that Birkenstock demand trends have improved for Spring, and it is now less concerned about the fall 2026 setup.

• In Travel & Leisure: AAL shares jumped after Bloomberg reported that UAL CEO Kirby has discussed with senior government officials a possible merger with American Airlines Group (AAL), https://tinyurl.com/2d6nz2u9 ; other airline stocks (DAL, LUV) saw an early rebound given rising peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, bring oil prices lower in conjunction.

• In Energy stocks: BP said its oil trading performance was exceptional in the first quarter as the Iran war caused a surge in prices; also said in a quarterly trading statement that its net debt would rise to between $25 billion and $27B from just over $22B in the previous quarter because of movements in working capital.
• Oil Equipment sector: NOV was downgraded to Sector Perform, $21 PT at RBC Capital saying they see a less compelling risk/reward opportunity in Nov shares and, accordingly, downgrade the stock.
• In Electrical Components: TE shares slipped after announces public offering of $125 mln convertible bonds due 2031 saying they expect to use net offering proceeds for construction/development of infrastructure relating to Phase 1 of its Austin facility, and for general corporate purposes.
• In Shipping/Tankers: GNK rejected DSX acquisition proposal and urged shareholders to disregard Diana's proxy Materials ahead of the annual meeting, according to a company statement released April 13. Genco's board characterized Diana's $23.50 per share offer as inadequate.
• In Aerospace & Defense: LMT said it will expand its corporate venture capital arm, Lockheed Martin Ventures, to $1 billion, more than doubling the fund’s previous $400 million capacity in what the company described as its largest increase since the unit was established in 2007; TDG shares rallied after guides preliminary Q2 revenue $2.54B-$2.545B, above consensus $2.42B and said to raise $1.25B in new debt; BA said it delivered 46 jets in March, down from 51 the prior month, as the company repaired damaged wiring in about 25 of its best-selling 737 MAX planes; said booked 25 new 737 orders, all for unidentified customers.

• JPM Q1 EPS $5.94 tops consensus $5.51 and Q1 reported revenue rose 0% y/y to $49.8B and managed revenue $50.5B, vs. consensus $48.91B; Q1 Net income rose 13% to $16.5B; Q1 Markets revenue rose 20% to $11.6B and investment banking fees increased 28% y/y, driven by stronger advisory and equity capital markets activity; Noninterest revenue excluding markets rose 14%.
• Citigroup (C) Q1 profit rose 42% as geopolitical tensions fueled market volatility and trading revenue, while strong dealmaking buoyed investment banking fees; Q1 net interest income (NII), the difference between what a bank earns on loans and pays out on deposits, rose 12%; Q1 EPS $3.06 topped ests $2.63 and revs $24.6B beats $23.59B estimate; beat its target for profitability in Q1, posting a 13.1% return over tangible common equity (currently ests 10% to 11% return for the full year); Q1 equities trading revs rose 39%, fixed income trading revenue was up 13% y/y, rates and currencies revenue rose 6% and other fixed income rose 27% y/y.
• WFC Q1 EPS $1.60 vs. consensus $1.58; Q1 revenue rose 6% y/y to $21.45B vs. consensus $21.79B; Q1 credit loss provision $1.135B; Q1 net interest Income $12.096B vs. vs. est. $12.303B; Q1 markets revenue surged 19% to $2.17B from a year earlier; says in corporate debt finance industry about 23% of exposure is to BDCs as equity counterparty; sees FY26 non-interest expense around $55.7B, unchanged from prior view.
• In Asset Managers: AB preliminary assets under management declined to $839 billion as of March 31, 2026, from $880 billion at the end of February, driven primarily by market depreciation and, to a lesser extent, net outflows during March; VCTR March avg total AUM was $315.3B, avg other assets $3.2B, avg total client assets $318.5B.
• Investment Managers: BLK Q1 adj EPS $12.53 vs. consensus $11.48; Q1 revenue $6.7B vs. consensus $6.43B; r reported $2.2 billion in net income, up 46% y/y; record first quarter for the iShares exchange-traded fund business helped drive $130 billion in net inflows for the quarter; Base fees, or investment management fees that aren't related to fund performance, grew 8% y/y.

• AVNS agrees to be bought by American industrial Partners for $1.272B; Avanos Medical Inc stockholders to receive $25.00 per share in cash; to become private company. https://tinyurl.com/bd7y495x
• BIIB was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper and raising its PT to $214 from $177 saying it is clear to them that the addition of Syfovre and Empaveli at a minimum fills a Gap in the top line created by loss of exclusivity (LOE) exposure for legacy multiple sclerosis (MS) assets particularly Ocrevus and Associated royalties).
• NVO said it ‌is partnering with OpenAI to deploy artificial intelligence across its business, from drug discovery ‌to manufacturing and commercial operations.
• TVTX shares rose after the FDA approved Filspari (sparsentan) to reduce proteinuria in adult and pediatric patients aged 8 years and older with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) who do not have active nephrotic syndrome, making Filspari the first and only FDA-approved Medicine for FSGS. LGND shares rallied in sympathy as it gets royalites.

• Life Sciences & Tools: QGEN was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays (tgt to $44 from $58) and RVTY was downgraded to EW as well in Life Sciences & Tools Q1 preview. The firm now sees QGEN takeout potential as less likely and says Qiagen has high U.S. academic and government exposure, which creates added risk into the Q1 report. For RVTY, says outsized margin ramp (~1,000bps OMx from Q1 to Q4) at risk in their view + potential competitive threats to flow cytometry reagents from WAT going prime.

• In Chemicals: EMN was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $80 noting Eastman was trading at $75.50 on February 27 (day prior to Iran war) versus today's price of $74.01 or down (2%) in a market that is about flat. Part of the reason for Eastman's underperformance is that the company indicated that its Q1:26 EPS would be at the lower end of its forecasted $1.00-$1.20 range versus $1.91 in the year-ago period.
• In Steel sector: JP Morgan previewed sector staying Overweight on NUE, CMC; RS named a positive catalyst watch and downgraded EAF to Underweight saying since the onset of the Middle East conflict, Steel mills under coverage have retreated 3%, in-line with XME -4% but underperforming HRC +4%. Barring a US recession, JPM and most investors they spoke with view the US Steel sector as a relative 'safe haven' given durable S232 tariffs Lending to structurally higher profitability to fund growth/shareholder returns, while pent-up demand from Trump 2.0 growth initiatives and easing US trade uncertainty should maintain momentum moving forward.

• In Ai/Data Center: OpenAI's $852B valuation is under scrutiny from backers as the group switches focus to the enterprise market and handling competition from Anthropic, The Financial Times reported. A series of deals, initiatives, and abandoned projects have been designed to defend ChatGPT's dominance among consumers while also taking on Anthropic in the market for corporate AI tools. Bernstein reiterated Underperform on CRWV while raising tgt to $67 from $56 after announced two new deals, one with Meta for an incremental $21B , and another with Anthropic for an undisclosed amount (Bernstein presumes it is not large, but still a meaningful new logo).

• Hardware & Components: DELL CFO David Alan Kennedy reports open market sale of 19,500 Class C common stock at avg price of $182.53/share – per SEC filing; DELL and HPQ shares gave back some of yesterday’s rally after NVDA told CNBC late Monday "the media report is false; Nvidia is not engaged in discussions to acquire any PC maker." This after a SemiAccurate report sent DELL up ~6% and HPQ up ~5% on speculation NVDA was negotiating to buy a major PC company.
• Design software names ADBE, WIX, FIG, GDDY, and other names slid late day after a report in The Information said Anthropic is preparing its next flagship model, Claude Opus 4.7, along with a new Ai-powered tool for designing websites and presentations, according to a person with knowledge of the products. Those new products could be released as soon as this week, the person said. Anthropic’s upcoming Design tool would pose a threat to startups like presentation-maker Gamma and Ai Design tool Google Stitch.

• CRDO shares jumped after saying it entered into a definitive agreement to acquire DustPhotonics, a developer of Silicon Photonics Photonic Integrated Circuit technology for optical transceivers for upfront consideration of $750M cash and approximately 0.92 million shares of Credo common stock.
• MRVL shares rose early on reports GOOGL is in talks with Marvell on TPU and AI chip development; Marvell could take on design-services role similar to MediaTek; discussions include TPU development projects; Google accelerating dedicated LLM inference chip efforts https://tinyurl.com/3zbjvjdv

Street Recommendations

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

• IART Argus analyst David Toung downgraded Integra LifeSciences to Hold from Buy. The company's operating performance has been inconsistent as it has faced multiple quality control issues in its manufacturing facilities, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds, however, that there is still underlying demand for Integra's regenerative tissue products and specialty surgery products, noting that if the firm sees better sales execution to fulfill that demand, it would consider returning the stock to a Buy rating.

• WFC Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg lowered the firm's price target on Wells Fargo to $108 from $113 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q1 report. The bank's earnings excluding a tax benefit were light as net interest income fees and expenses were below expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm says Wells' asset quality was stable and its share buyback persisted.
• JNJ Barclays analyst Matt Miksic raised the firm's price target on Johnson & Johnson to $255 from $234 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's pharma unit posted its sixth consecutive quarrier of double-digit organic growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays expects J&J's new products and "durable" core growth in medical technology and pharma to support its goal of double-digit sales growth by the end of the decade.
• TSLA Barclays keeps an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a $360 price target into the Q1 report. A key question on the earnings call will be how much incremental spending Tesla will need to incur for its physical AI projects, especially Terafab, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes Terafab could cost in the mid-single digit trillion dollar range if fully built out. While Tesla's capex is unlikely to "exponentially increase," a further step up from the elevated $20B figure Tesla talked to on the last earnings call is likely, contends Barclays. The firm attributes the recent weakness in the shares to little progress being disclosed on Robotaxi and Optimus. The selloff "could imply on the surface an opportunity for the stock to outperform" on the Q1 results, but Barclays takes a "more tempered view into the print," as commentary of incremental capex "could be perceived negatively," the analyst notes.

• WFC BofA lowered the firm's price target on Wells Fargo to $95 from $107 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Net interest margin contraction of 13 basis points quarter-over-quarter "came as the real sticker shock," raising further doubts around the ROTCE improvement thesis, the analyst tells investors. Following Wells' Q1 report, BofA lowered its FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates 2% and 4%, respectively, and lowered its assigned multiples on diminished EPS visibility.

• CSGP BTIG analyst Jake Fuller lowered the firm's price target on CoStar Group to $55 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q1 in residential real estate. The firm is pushing out its expectations for recovery in existing home sales, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG adds that the setup is not great, with cloudy existing home sales outlook to weigh on expectations for 2026.
• COMP BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Compass to $12 from $15 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q1 in residential real estate. The firm is pushing out its expectations for recovery in existing home sales, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG adds that the setup is not great, with cloudy existing home sales outlook to weigh on expectations for 2026.

• TEAM Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Atlassian to $150 from $185 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm hosted a KOL and field check which was overall constructive particularly regarding the pace of migration activity and related services demand. One of the more notable themes to emerge from the call was the evolution of migration work from simple "lift-and-shift" efforts to broader "strategic reimagination" in the Cloud. For larger customers, migration increasingly represents a fundamental transformation in how Atlassian tools are deployed and utilized. While this rethinking has the potential to extend migration timelines, it also reinforces the platform's strategic importance and long- term durability.

• FBK Cantor Fitzgerald lowered the firm's price target on FB Financial to $65 from $66 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. FB Financial is viewed as a top long idea among mid-sized banks, with meaningful growth potential driven by market disruption from recent deals, continued hiring, and opportunities to expand loans and deposits, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While pricing pressure may weigh on margins, strong capital generation supports additional upside through M&A or buybacks that are not fully reflected in current estimates, the firm says.

• ALGN Citi analyst Daniel Grosslight initiated coverage of Align Technology with a Buy rating and $240 price target. The firm launched the animal health and dental sectors with a "cautiously optimistic" view. Citi favors the animal health group, saying the the "humanization" pet trend is real and should drive more spending. The firm's top pick is Zoetis. It sees the weak macro backdrop pressuring the dental sector. Citi expects a trade-down to lower cost implants and orthodontics. Citi's top dental pick is Henry Schein.
• XRAY Citi initiated coverage of Dentsply Sirona with a Sell rating and $10 price target. The firm launched the animal health and dental sectors with a "cautiously optimistic" view. Citi favors the animal health group, saying the the "humanization" pet trend is real and should drive more spending. The firm's top pick is Zoetis. It sees the weak macro backdrop pressuring the dental sector. Citi expects a trade-down to lower cost implants and orthodontics. Citi's top dental pick is Henry Schein. The firm sees competition eroding Dentsply's pricing power.
• ELAN Citi initiated coverage of Elanco with a Buy rating and $30 price target. The firm launched the animal health and dental sectors with a "cautiously optimistic" view. Citi favors the animal health group, saying the the "humanization" pet trend is real and should drive more spending. The firm's top pick is Zoetis. It sees the weak macro backdrop pressuring the dental sector. Citi expects a trade-down to lower cost implants and orthodontics. Citi's top dental pick is Henry Schein.
• NVST Citi analyst Daniel Grosslight initiated coverage of Envista with a Neutral rating and $29 price target. The firm launched the animal health and dental sectors with a "cautiously optimistic" view. Citi favors the animal health group, saying the the "humanization" pet trend is real and should drive more spending. The firm's top pick is Zoetis. It sees the weak macro backdrop pressuring the dental sector. Citi expects a trade-down to lower cost implants and orthodontics. Citi's top dental pick is Henry Schein.
• HSIC Citi initiated coverage of Henry Schein with a Buy rating and $100 price target. The firm launched the animal health and dental sectors with a "cautiously optimistic" view. Citi favors the animal health group, saying the the "humanization" pet trend is real and should drive more spending. The firm's top pick is Zoetis. It sees the weak macro backdrop pressuring the dental sector. Citi expects a trade-down to lower cost implants and orthodontics. Citi's top dental pick is Henry Schein.
• IDXX Citi analyst Daniel Grosslight initiated coverage of Idexx Laboratories with a Neutral rating and $650 price target. The firm launched the animal health and dental sectors with a "cautiously optimistic" view. Citi favors the animal health group, saying the the "humanization" pet trend is real and should drive more spending. The firm's top pick is Zoetis. It sees the weak macro backdrop pressuring the dental sector. Citi expects a trade-down to lower cost implants and orthodontics. Citi's top dental pick is Henry Schein.
• PAHC Citi initiated coverage of Phibro Animal Health with a Neutral rating and $62 price target. The firm launched the animal health and dental sectors with a "cautiously optimistic" view. Citi favors the animal health group, saying the the "humanization" pet trend is real and should drive more spending. The firm's top pick is Zoetis. It sees the weak macro backdrop pressuring the dental sector. Citi expects a trade-down to lower cost implants and orthodontics. Citi's top dental pick is Henry Schein.
• ZTS Citi initiated coverage of Zoetis with a Buy rating and $145 price target. Citi also opened an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on Zoetis, saying Solensia will return to growth in fiscal 2026. The firm launched the animal health and dental sectors with a "cautiously optimistic" view. Citi favors the animal health group, saying the the "humanization" pet trend is real and should drive more spending. The firm's top pick is Zoetis. It sees the weak macro backdrop pressuring the dental sector. Citi expects a trade-down to lower cost implants and orthodontics. Citi's top dental pick is Henry Schein.
• AFRM Citi analyst Bryan Keane added an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on shares of Affirm while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $100 piece target. Citi is positive on the stock into the company's investor forum on March 12. Affirm should set a medium-term revenue growth outlook of at least 20%, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• NOW Citi analyst Tyler Radke lowered the firm's price target on ServiceNow to $177 from $237 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm expects the company to report a slight beat in Q1. Citi's Q1 partner fieldwork indicated ServiceNow came in slightly ahead of plan, with some deal delays and federal softness, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ACI Citi lowered the firm's price target on Albertsons to $22 from $26 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 comps missed consensus but the stock's risk/reward is favorable, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi says Albertsons' pharmacy pricing pressured sales.
• LGND Citi raised the firm's price target on Ligand to $282 from $276 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company's partner Travere received FDA approval of Filspari for the treatment of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis.
• GFL Citi lowered the firm's price target on GFL Environmental to $51 from $55 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company's acquisition of Secure Waste Infrastructure as mixed. However, the shares are oversold after dropping 10% since Monday's announcement, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PUMP Citi upgraded ProPetro Holding to Buy from Neutral.
• AESI Citi upgraded Atlas Energy to Buy from Neutral with an $18 price target.

• C Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden raised the firm's price target on Citi to $151 from $137 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The strong quarterly results underscores continued momentum behind Citi's core franchises, as well as ongoing success in their transformation efforts, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• KMX JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on CarMax to $35 from $28 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm sees support for the shares from peak demand season and One Big Beautiful Bill stimulus helping industry sales. However, visible signs of market share recovery beyond Q1 are needed for further re-rating of CarMax, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes the company's competitive backdrop continues to intensify.

• OKTA KeyBanc analyst Eric Heath lowered the firm's price target on Okta to $95 from $100 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says survey results and checks from 36 IT & security channel partners were mixed for Q1 amid a dynamic environment with elevated component pricing, geopolitical uncertainty, and AI disruption. Positively, the overall meets/beats improved to 88% from 81% as the net impact of component pricing caused pull-forward of demand, particularly in server, storage, and networking, and the outlook for public cloud slightly improved. However, 2026 budget outlook moderated to 2.5% from 5.3% last quarter, U.S. Fed results for Q2 and FY26 outlook weakened, and nearly 20% of partners are seeing a reduction in software spend in favor of AI-natives, says KeyBanc.
• SNOW KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Snowflake to $200 from $235 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says survey results and checks from 36 IT & security channel partners were mixed for Q1 amid a dynamic environment with elevated component pricing, geopolitical uncertainty, and AI disruption. Positively, the overall meets/beats improved to 88% from 81% as the net impact of component pricing caused pull-forward of demand, particularly in server, storage, and networking, and the outlook for public cloud slightly improved. However, 2026 budget outlook moderated to 2.5% from 5.3% last quarter, U.S. Fed results for Q2 and FY26 outlook weakened, and nearly 20% of partners are seeing a reduction in software spend in favor of AI-natives, says KeyBanc.
• ZS KeyBanc analyst Eric Heath lowered the firm's price target on Zscaler to $160 from $220 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says survey results and checks from 36 IT & security channel partners were mixed for Q1 amid a dynamic environment with elevated component pricing, geopolitical uncertainty, and AI disruption. Positively, the overall meets/beats improved to 88% from 81% as the net impact of component pricing caused pull-forward of demand, particularly in server, storage, and networking, and the outlook for public cloud slightly improved. However, 2026 budget outlook moderated to 2.5% from 5.3% last quarter, U.S. Fed results for Q2 and FY26 outlook weakened, and nearly 20% of partners are seeing a reduction in software spend in favor of AI-natives, says KeyBanc.

• WFC Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Wells Fargo to $94 from $100 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is fine-tuning its EPS estimates following the company's Q1 earnings and updated guidance. Specifically, Piper's 2026 EPS goes from $6.82 to $6.72, and its 2027 EPS goes from $7.42 to $7.36.
• CBOE Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Cboe Global Markets to $321 from $295 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Heading into Q1 earnings, the firm expects management teams to strike a positive tone on the outlook for trading volumes, especially in futures as the Iran War continues to impact global energy and commodities markets. Piper is somewhat cautious on the tough year-over-year comparisons facing exchanges in Q2, but a continuation of the Iran War is a strong counter.
• CME Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley raised the firm's price target on CME Group to $329 from $313 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Heading into Q1 earnings, the firm expects management teams to strike a positive tone on the outlook for trading volumes, especially in futures as the Iran War continues to impact global energy and commodities markets. Piper is somewhat cautious on the tough year-over-year comparisons facing exchanges in Q2, but a continuation of the Iran War is a strong counter.
• COIN Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Coinbase to $180 from $150 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Heading into Q1 earnings, the firm expects management teams to strike a positive tone on the outlook for trading volumes, especially in futures as the Iran War continues to impact global energy and commodities markets. Piper is somewhat cautious on the tough year-over-year comparisons facing exchanges in Q2, but a continuation of the Iran War is a strong counter.

• CLDT Stifel raised the firm's price target on Chatham Lodging to $11 from $10 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Chatham has been the top performing Lodging REIT year-to-date and the firm feels "the pieces are in place for shares to continue working at this juncture," the analyst tells investors.

• JPM Truist raised the firm's price target on JPMorgan to $332 from $323 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after the company's Q1 results. The firm is positive on the bank's higher revenues and lower provision expense, partially offset by higher expenses, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Truist adds that the stock's premium valuation is warranted relative to its embedded growth opportunities, franchise strength, and track record on the risk management.

• JANX UBS downgraded Janux Therapeutics to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $15, down from $57. The firm cites a lack of near-term stock-moving catalysts for the downgrade. The shares have been under pressure following the "mixed" JANX007 Phase 1a data in fifth-line metastatic prostate cancer, the analyst tells investors in a research note. After speaking with to management, UBS thinks Janux's second half of 2026 data update will likely "incremental with limited impact on the stock."
• DPZ UBS analyst Dennis Geiger lowered the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza to $480 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Macro and weather headwinds are expected to pressure Q1 results and possibly the full-year outlook, with U.S. same-store sales likely below consensus and guidance at risk of being lowered, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite near-term softness, the company remains well positioned for long-term U.S. momentum, global store growth, and share gains, with expectations already reset to more conservative levels, the firm says.

• C Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Citi to $160 from $150 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm says Citi showed strong top-line double-digit growth even amid its restructuring, which seems unique not only among banks but also by companies generally.
• DECK Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow raised the firm's price target on Deckers Outdoor to $115 from $110 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While the firm has been concerned on HOKA's trajectory since the start of 2025, today Wells gives Deckers credit as the brand appears to have stabilized product-flow/margin/DTC demand.
• CCL Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Carnival to $36 from $37 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While the firm expects Q1 to be largely in line, Wells believes management team will be cautious when updating outlook given negative impacts to yields and fuel from the Iran conflict.
• NCLH Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Norwegian Cruise Line to $26 from $32 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While the firm expects Q1 to be largely in line, Wells believes management team will be cautious when updating outlook given negative impacts to yields and fuel from the Iran conflict.
• RCL Wells Fargo analyst Trey Bowers lowered the firm's price target on Royal Caribbean to $349 from $383 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While the firm expects Q1 to be largely in line, Wells believes management team will be cautious when updating outlook given negative impacts to yields and fuel from the Iran conflict.
• VFC Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow raised the firm's price target on VF Corp. to $20 from $15 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares ahead of quarterly results. The firm says that while it has leaned more cautious over the past 12-plus months, it now leans a bit more positive as a function of improving U.S. Vans checks and the implications on the P&L/valuation that could bring.
• EXP Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Eagle Materials to $246 from $240 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the building materials group as part of a Q1 preview. The "seasonally weaker" quarter tracked to expectations, but Q2 estimates face risk from surging diesel costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells expects the costs to be passed through on a 1-2 quarter lag.
• MLM Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Martin Marietta to $608 from $612 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the building materials group as part of a Q1 preview. The "seasonally weaker" quarter tracked to expectations, but Q2 estimates face risk from surging diesel costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells expects the costs to be passed through on a 1-2 quarter lag.
• VMC Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners lowered the firm's price target on Vulcan Materials to $305 from $315 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the building materials group as part of a Q1 preview. The "seasonally weaker" quarter tracked to expectations, but Q2 estimates face risk from surging diesel costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells expects the costs to be passed through on a 1-2 quarter lag.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: A LOT FBK

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for March
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for March
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: EQBK MAMA SURG

• Jefferies Private Growth Conference 4/14

• 8:30 AM ET NY Empire Fed Manufacturing for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for March
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for April
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC Flows for February

• Earnings After the Close: GSBC HOMB JBHT MIND NKLR SLG

• China Retail Sales, industrial Output for March
• China Q2 GDP

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for April
• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for March
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization for March
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AA FNB INDB LAKE NFLX SFNC

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