Early Look

Friday, February 20, 2026

U.S. futures are little changed after markets slipped on Thursday, still on track for weekly gains, but no big bets made ahead of this morning’s key inflation Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data at 8:30 am et, along with a barrage of other data points for investors to sift through including personal income, GDP data, S&P global manufacturing, new home sales and Michigan confidence readings. In addition to the data overflow today, the US Supreme Court will convene Friday at 10 a.m. ET for the first time in weeks, with markets keyed in on a possible decision around tariffs. Earnigns has dominated this week, and of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, more than 74% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while nearly 21% have missed. No major companies are due to report today, but the earnings season picks up pace again next week.

Increased macro headlines weighed on markets yesterday, as the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering a “limited” air strike on Iran, hoping to force Iran to agree to a nuclear deal but not spark “major retaliation.” WSJ writes that such an assault could come within days and if Iran did not comply with US demands to halt nuclear enrichment, the US would conduct a broad military campaign “potentially” aimed at toppling the Iranian regime. Oil prices hit their highest levels in 6 months on Thursday but slipping overnight, while gold reclaims $5,000 an ounce and Silver $80 an ounce. In Asian markets, Mainland China and Taiwan markets remained closed but Hong Kong reopened, as the Hang Seng fell -292 points to 26,413, and the Nikkei dropped -642 points to 56,825. In Europe, the German DAX is up 58 points to 25,102, while the FTSE 100 rises 62 points to 10,689.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -267.50 points, or 0.54%, to 49,395.16
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -70.91 points, or 0.31%, to 22,682.73
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 6.48 points, or 0.24% to 2,665.09

• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for December…prior +0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for December…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for December…est. +2.8% (prior +2.8%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for December…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for December…est. +2.9% (prior +2.8%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 advance reading…est. +3.0%
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q4…prior +3.5%
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q4-advance…est. +2.9%
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash-Feb…est. 52.6
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, flash-Feb…est. 53.0
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, flash-Feb
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Sentiment, Feb-final…est. 57.3
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for December…est. 730K
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Japan’s January inflation data saw a step down. Headline CPI fell to 1.5% YoY in January (vs. est. 1.6%, prev. 2.1%), dropping below the BoJ’s 2% target for the first time since March 2022, while core CPI ex fresh food slowed to 2.0% (vs. est. 2.0%, prev. 2.4%) and core to 2.6% (vs. est. 2.7%, prev. 2.9%).
• The US and Indonesia sealed a trade pact that averts steep US tariffs on Indonesia in exchange for market opening measures in Jakarta. The deal cuts US duties on most Indonesian goods to 19%, while Indonesia scraps levies on over 99% of US products, dismantles key non-tariff barriers and promises some $33 bn in purchases of US energy, aircraft and farm goods.
• Fed Governor Miran was notably less dovish than usual, saying that resilience in employment and goods prices would cause him to raise his end-2026 funds rate ‘dot’ 50bp vs his December view, to 2.75%.

• Copart (CPRT) Q2 EPS $0.36 vs est $0.39 on revs $1.12B vs est $1.144B.
• Floor & Décor Holdings (FND) Q4 EPS $0.36 vs est $0.35 on sales $1.13B vs est $1.133B, comps -4.8%; guides FY comps -2% to +1%, sales $4.88-5.03B vs est $5.026B and EPS $1.92-2.18 vs est $2.06.
• Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI) Q4 adj FFO $0.99 vs. est. $0.98; Q4 revs $407M vs. est. $406M; sees FY26 adjusted FFO $4.06-$4.11 vs. consensus $4.04.
• Live Nation (LYV) reported Q4 revs were $6.3B vs. est. $6.11B; Q4 adj operating income $194M vs. est. $187M; Q4 concert revs $5.15B vs. est. $4.93B; Q4 ticketing revs $646M vs. est. $845M; FY 2026 capital expenditures expected to be $1.1B to $1.2B.
• Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) Q4 EPS $0.92 vs. est. $0.89; Q4 revs in-line at $2.15B; guides Q1 EPS below views at 41.66-$1.70 vs. est. $1.80 and sees year EPS $5.28-$5.44, below consensus $5.69 and sees FY26 Net sales growth: 4.5% to 6.5%, vs. consensus $9.65B.
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Q4 EPS $1.28 vs. consensus $1.50 on revs $1.48B vs. est. $1.5B; Q4 comparable restaurant sales increased 4.2% at company restaurants; said diluted earnings per share growth was negatively impacted by approximately 12% as a result of the additional week in the prior year; Q4 Restaurant margin dollars decreased 15.6% to $204.8M y/y; to implement menu price increase of 1.9% in April.

• Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) and Infinity Natural Resources (INR) announced an ownership adjustment to the pending joint acquisition of the Ohio Utica assets of Antero Resources Corporation (AR) and Antero Midstream Corporation (AM). At closing, NOG will acquire a 40% stake in the Assets for $480 million.
• Transocean (RIG) Q4 EPS $0.02 vs. est. $0.07; Q4 revs $1.04B, in-line with consensus $1.04B; sees Q1 revenue $1.02B-$1.05B, vs. consensus $1.01B and sees FY26 revenue $3.80B-$3.95B, vs. consensus $3.86B.

• Blue Owl (OWL) says late day they are not halting redemptions, changing the method; says remains well capitalized with approximately $4B in total cash and capacity on its facilities; says very focused on reducing borrowing costs; says balance sheet "well positioned" to support continued portfolio performance in 2026.
• Extra Space Storage (EXR) Q4 FFO/SHR $2.08 vs est $2.04 on sales $734.225Mm vs est $779.34Mm; guides FY FFO/SHR $8.05-8.35 vs est $8.29.
• LegalZoom (LZ) Q4 EPS $0.03 vs est $0.03, adj EBITDA $49.9Mm vs est $47.2Mm on revs $190.3Mm vs est $184.8Mm, gr mgn 68%; guides Q1 revs $200-203Mm vs est $200.5Mm and adj EBITDA $34-36Mm vs est $44.71Mm.
• Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.07) vs. est. loss (-$0.11) as revs fell -32% y/y to $736M but beat consensus $594M; said increased our homes purchased by 46% quarter-over-quarter, significantly reduced our capital intensity by expanding Cash Plus such that it is now 35% of our weekly volume, and we reduced average days in possession of our inventory by 23%.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) reported select monthly operating data for January 2026. Funded Customers at the end of January were 27.2 million, up about 1.75M y/y; total Platform Assets at the end of January were $324B, +1% m/m and +59% y/y. Trading Volumes in January: Equity Notional Trading Volumes were $227.3 billion (up 21% from December 2025, up 57% y/y); Options Contracts Traded were 200.0 million (roughly flat to December 2025, up 20% y/y); and Crypto Notional Trading Volumes were $22.9 billion (up 8% m/m and +12% y/y).
• Workiva (WK) Q4 adj EPS $0.78 vs est $0.69 on revs $239Mm vs est $234.8Mm; guides Q1 revs $244-246Mm vs est $240.59Mm; sees FY revs $1.036-1.04B vs est $1.021B.

• Grail inc. (GRAL) Q4 EPS ($2.44) vs est ($2.71), adj EBITDA ($71.8)Mm vs est ($77.3)Mm on revs $43.6Mm vs est $43.68Mm; separately announces the results of a trial for its multi-cancer early detection test Galleri, which is used to screen for up to 50 types of cancer – says test did not meet the main goal of showing a statistically significant reduction in late-stage cancer diagnoses; shares tumbled following trial data.
• Guardant Health (GH) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.50) vs. est. loss (-$0.47); Q4 revs $281.3M vs. consensus $272.3M; sees FY26 revenue $1.25B-$1.28B vs. est. $1.24B, sees 2026 non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 64% to 65% and said expects total non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $1.03 to $1.05B.
• PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) Q4 EPS ($1.67) vs est $0.04on revs $183.992Mm vs est $276.66Mm; guides FY product revs $700-800Mm vs est $976.1Mm.
• Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) Q4 adj EBITDA $32.9Mm vs est $25.37Mm on sales $290.4Mm vs est $277.03Mm, adj gr mgn 58%; guides FY revs $1.065-1.085B vs est $1.104B, gr mgn 56-57%, adj EBITDA mgn 5-6%.

• Century Aluminum (CENX) Q4 adj EPS $1.25 misses consensus $1.29 on revs $633.7M vs. est. $661.63M; expects Q1 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century stockholders to range between $215M-$235M based on improved metal pricing and regional premiums, partially offset by temporary higher energy costs in the US.
• LyondellBasell (LYB) cuts quarterly dividend to 69c from $1.37 per share.
• Newmont Mining (NEM) Q4 adj EPS $2.52 vs. est. $2.00; average realized price for gold was at $4,216 per ounce in the quarter, compared with $2,643 per ounce in the year-ago period; Q4 gold production was at 1.45 million ounces, compared with 1.90 million ounces a year earlier; said it expects to produce less bullion this year, due to planned upgrades at some of its managed mines and lower output at two joint ventures with Barrick Mining.

• Alarm.com (ALRM) Q4 adj EPS $0.72 vs. est. $0.64; Q4 revs rose 8.8% y/y to $261.7M vs. est. $250.75M; sees FY26 adjusted EPS $2.78-$2.79, vs. consensus $2.68 and FY26 revenue $1.058B-$1.065B vs. consensus $1.04B; Q4 SaaS and license revenue increased 8.8% to $180.2BM y/y.
• Dropbox (DBX) Q4 EPS $0.68 vs. est. $0.67 on revs $636.2M vs. est. $627.9M; Q4 total ARR was $2.526B, a decrease of 1.9%. On a constant currency basis, Total ARR decreased by 1.7%; Q4 paying users totaled 18.08 million, as compared to 18.22 million. Average revenue per paying user was $139.68, as compared to $140.06.
• Five9 (FIVN) Q4 adj EPS $0.80 vs. est. $0.78; Q4 revs $300.3M vs. est. $298.31M; said exiting the year with a revenue run rate of $1.2B and adjusted EBITDA margin of 26%; sees FY26 adjusted EPS $3.15-$3.21 vs. consensus $3.18 and sees FY26 revenue $1.247B-$1.261B vs. consensus $1.25B.
• Nvidia (NVDA) is close to finalizing a $30B investment into OpenAI that will replace the long-term $100B commitment agreed by the companies last year, as part of a massive new funding round for the Ai start-up. NVDA is in the final stages of negotiations with OpenAI, and its investment could be concluded as early as this weekend, according to people with knowledge of the matter - Reuters
• Onto Innovation (ONTO) Q4 adj EPS $1.26 vs est $1.28 on revs $266.866Mm vs est $267.03Mm, gr mgn 46.4%; guides Q1 revs $275-285Mm vs est $270.34Mm and adj EPS $1.26-1.36 vs est $1.26, gr mgn 54.6-55.6%, adj Outperform mgn 25.5-26.5%.
• RingCentral (RNG) Q4 adj EPS $1.18 vs est $1.14 on revs $644.033Mm vs est $643.51Mm; guides Q1 revs $640-645Mm vs est $641.29Mm and adj EPS $1.16-1.19 vs est $1.10; sees FY revs +4-5% vs est +4.33%.
• Sensata Technologies (ST) Q4 adj EPS $0.88 vs. est. $0.86 and revs rose 1.1% y/y to $917.9M vs. consensus $911.03M; sees Q1 adjusted EPS $0.81-$0.85 vs. est. $0.83 and revs $917M-$937M vs. est. $926.61M; On an organic basis, Q4 revenue increased $31.8B or 3.5% vs. y/y.
• Universal Display (OLED) Q4 EPS $1.39 vs est $1.28 on revs $172.9Mm vs est $172.88Mm; guides FY revs $650-700Mm vs est $715.22Mm.
• Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) files for offering of four-parts Senior notes.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, February 20, 2026

U.S. stocks off to a choppy start, a similar theme this week as investors digest several important headlines this morning including lots of economic data (PCE, GDP) to go through as well as a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs on this option expiration Friday. The U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 vote, struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, a ruling with major implications for the global economy. In data, PCE inflation ticked up in December and came in higher than the consensus. The Q4 U.S. GDP (first estimate) came in at +1.4%, annual rate, vs. +2.8% consensus and +4.4% in the prior quarter. Tariffs, the government shutdown and lower immigration did have an impact. The dollar index (DXY) declined following the tariff ruling, pulling back from 5-day win streak. Precious metals prices are higher early and oil prices hold near 6-month highs on Iran concerns into the weekend.

The Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. As a result: The lower court ruling in Learning Resources is vacated and remanded (dismissed) for lack of jurisdiction. The V.O.S. Selections decision is affirmed. The news, which wasn’t entirely unexpected, lifted shares of companies that have been hit by higher tariffs including retailers such as NKE, DECK, W, RH, TGT, WSM, ONON, LULU among others. Shares in trucking firms, rail operators, logistics giants and airlines rallied Friday after the Supreme Court ruled that many of President Trump's signature tariffs are illegal. The Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped as much as 1.7% higher after the ruling before giving back some gains.

U.S. Treasury yields pared their earlier drop but remained lower on the day after data showed that inflation was higher than economists’ forecasts in December, while gross domestic product for the fourth quarter was well below expectations. Both the headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditure index rose 0.4% in December on a monthly basis, above economists' estimates for a 0.3% rise on each. Separately, gross domestic product increased at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 3.0% pace.

• December Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index m/m rose +0.4% vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior, while y/y figure was +2.9% Y/Y vs. +2.8% consensus and +2.8% prior. The Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose +0.4% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior and +3.0% Y/Y vs. +2.9% consensus and +2.8% prior.
• The December personal saving rate 3.6% vs Nov 3.7%, personal Income +0.3% (in line with consensus +0.3%) vs Nov +0.4%, Personal Spending +0.4% (in line with consensus +0.4%) vs Nov +0.4% (prev +0.5%). December real consumer spending +0.1% vs Nov +0.2% (prev +0.3%).
• U.S. S&P Global February flash services PMI at 52.3 (forecast 53.0), U.S. S&P Global February flash composite PMI at 52.3 (vs 53.0 in January) and U.S. S&P Global February flash manufacturing PMI at 51.2 (forecast 52.6).
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment final Feb 56.6 (consensus 57.3) vs preliminary Feb 57.3 and final Jan 56.4, consumers current conditions index final Feb 56.6 (consensus 57.7) vs prelim Feb 58.3 and final Jan 55.4, and expectations index final Feb 56.6 vs prelim Feb 56.6 and final Jan 57.0.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final Feb 3.4% vs prelim 3.5% and final Jan 4.0% while 5-year inflation outlook final Feb 3.3% vs prelim 3.4% and final Jan 3.3%.

• In Utilities: ED reported 4Q results and provided a comprehensive update, including 2026 guidance, a refreshed capital plan and LT EPS CAGR, and an updated financing plan, which were all relatively in line with expectations; INR announced it is increasing its WI in the Antero Utica transaction, and also raising $350M of convertible preferred equity from two private equity investors. PPL reported inline Q4 EPS but guided 2026 adj EPS $1.90-$1.98 vs. est. $1.95 and updates capital plan to $23B from 2026 through 2029 vs. prior view $20B 2025-28. Mizuho upgraded SO to Outperform as believes the GPSC election noise is overblown, and even with the recent move in the stock, still presents an attractive valuation for a fully regulated story growing at 8% (possibly more).
• In Chemicals: LYB roughly halved its quarterly dividend to $0.69 from a prior payout of $1.37 (its prior dividend yield of 9.9% was the highest of any company in the S&P 500) – DOW last year cut its dividend in half in a bid to preserve cash as it grapples with the prolonged industry downturn. CC shares fell as Q4 revs fell -2% y/y but was in line at $5.8B and noted adj EBITDA for Q4 decreased 24% y/y, while guides 2026 revenue up 3%-5% from $5.8B in 2026, vs. consensus $6.04B.

• OPEN +13%; reported Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.07), smaller than expected loss (-$0.11) as revs fell -32% Y/y to $736M but beat consensus $594M; said increased homes purchased by 46% quarter-over-quarter and significantly reduced our capital Intensity.
• RNG +29%; shares rose on Q4 results beating with 4Q Subscription and Total Revenue up 5.5% and 4.8%, both in line, EBITDA grew 10.4% to $169M with margins expanding 130bps and Non-GAAP EPS accelerated 21.0% to $1.18, a 4% beat and above the high end of guidance.
• TNDM +25%; Q4 and full year revenue exceeded consensus driven by strong underlying market demand; a moderating pace of share erosion; and positive pricing; sees FY25 revenue $1.065B to $1.085B, below consensus $1.10B but introduced a new “pay-as-you-go” pricing model in US pharmacies.
• WK +5%; shares rose after Q4 results that beat expectations and gave revenue forecasts for both the first quarter and the full year that are seen as positive.

• ARDX -10%; shares fell after reporting a wider quarterly loss while and saying expects 2026 Ibsrela revenue to be $410M-$430M (50%-57% Y/y growth), and mgmt is now guiding towards >$1B peak sales, with $1B revenue expected in 2029 and continued growth through LOE.
• CC -14%; shares fell as Q4 revs fell -2% y/y but was in line at $5.8B and noted adj EBITDA for Q4 decreased 24% y/y, while guides 2026 revenue up 3%-5% from $5.8B in 2026, vs. consensus $6.04B.
• CPRT -2%; shares fell after posting Q4 revs and EPS missed, Q2 EPS $0.36 vs est $0.39 on revs $1.12B vs est $1.144B, Gross profit $492.8M, 9.3% below Street, and gross margins declined ~120 bps Y/Y (43.9% vs 45.2%) and weaker Ebitda $454.3M, vs. Street $501.9M.
• CRWV -6%; shares fell after a report in Business Insider noted Blue Owl Capital failed to secure financing for a $4 billion data center project in Pennsylvania. One lender said the lack of interest was due to CoreWeave's creditworthiness. https://tinyurl.com/49psndw5
• CXW -10%; and GEO weak after Bloomberg reporting Immigration and customs enforcement plans to shrink its network of more than 200 detention facilities - most of them privately operated to just 34 government owned sites according to officials briefed this week on the plan.
• GRAL -48%; shares tumbled after the early cancer detection test maker said Galleri, its multi-cancer screener, failed to meet its primary endpoint of statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and IV cancer.
• NEM -4%; after the world’s biggest gold miner said it expects to produce less bullion this year, due to planned upgrades at some of its managed mines and lower output at two joint ventures with Barrick Mining.

Closing Recap

Friday, February 20, 2026

Ahead of this morning’s PCE and GDP data, US equity futures were effectively flat overnight, as was oil.  Gold was the outlier, gaining about 1%.  PCE came in a little hot, but not too bad, and equities retreated a bit as the report was not great for Fed watchers.  The qtr/qtr GDP Advance was just 1.4% versus an expected 2.8% but was secondary to PCE in investors’ playbooks.  An early decline, though, turned into a gain when University of Michigan Inflation numbers came in light then the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling hit the tape noting the Court ruled against Trump’s global tariffs.  The ruling indicated tariffs are a taxing power and only Congress has the power to lay and collect taxes and duties, noting tariffs are not routine regulation but a core legislative taxing authority.  At mid-morning, stocks were holding gains and breadth was favoring advancers by about 3:2 as small caps underperform with IWM (-0.10%) versus SPY (+0.38%) and QQQ (+0.63%).  Sector dispersion was fairly close with Communications (+1.25%), Industrials (+0.67%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.62%) as outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Materials (-0.17%), Energy (-0.61%) and Health Care (-0.72%) paced the underperformers with six sectors gaining versus five declining.

More on the tariff decision: the U.S. Supreme Court struck down on Friday President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, a ruling with major implications for the global economy. The justices, in a 6-3 ruling, upheld a lower court's decision that the Republican president's use of this 1977 law exceeded his authority. The Supreme Court reached its conclusion in a legal challenge by businesses affected by the tariffs and 12 U.S. states, most of them Democratic-governed, against Trump's unprecedented use of this law to unilaterally impose the import taxes.

In data of note today, while the Core PCE rise of 3.0% wasn’t far from the 2.9% expectation, it was the highest reading since November 2003.  On the seemingly weak 1.4% annualized GDP figure today, @sonusvarghese noted it was mostly due to 120bps of drag from the federal government shutdown.  Lastly, on tariffs and Trump’s comment about a back-up plan, @RenMacLLC notes a few possibilities: Sec 122 of 1974 Trade Act offering a 15% tariff for up to 150 days to address deficits, Sec 338 of 1930 Tariff Act offering a maximum tariff of 50% to address “unreasonable” trade practices, Sec 301 of the 1974 Trade Act offering no limit on tariffs to address “unfair” trade practices and Sec 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act offering no limit on tariffs to address threats to “national security.”  Seems we may be working through this for a while.

Despite an early afternoon fade ahead of Trump comments, US equities rebounded during his comments on pushing new tariffs under different forms.  Perhaps it was just a relief rally on very low expectations and fear of potential scenarios, but the market seemed to brush off the press conference pretty easily with breadth pushing back up to 3:2 in favor of advancers heading into the final hour of trading. 

• December Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index m/m rose +0.4% vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior, while y/y figure was +2.9% Y/Y vs. +2.8% consensus and +2.8% prior. The Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose +0.4% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior and +3.0% Y/Y vs. +2.9% consensus and +2.8% prior.
• The December personal saving rate 3.6% vs Nov 3.7%, personal Income +0.3% (in line with consensus +0.3%) vs Nov +0.4%, Personal Spending +0.4% (in line with consensus +0.4%) vs Nov +0.4% (prev +0.5%). December real consumer spending +0.1% vs Nov +0.2% (prev +0.3%).
• U.S. S&P Global February flash services PMI at 52.3 (forecast 53.0), U.S. S&P Global February flash composite PMI at 52.3 (vs 53.0 in January) and U.S. S&P Global February flash manufacturing PMI at 51.2 (forecast 52.6).
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment final Feb 56.6 (consensus 57.3) vs preliminary Feb 57.3 and final Jan 56.4, consumers current conditions index final Feb 56.6 (consensus 57.7) vs prelim Feb 58.3 and final Jan 55.4, and expectations index final Feb 56.6 vs prelim Feb 56.6 and final Jan 57.0.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final Feb 3.4% vs prelim 3.5% and final Jan 4.0% while 5-year inflation outlook final Feb 3.3% vs prelim 3.4% and final Jan 3.3%.
• Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell in December, but builders made progress in reducing an inventory bloat. New home sales dropped 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 745,000 units. Sales increased to a rate of 758,000 units in November from 656,000 in October. The data was delayed by last year's shutdown of the government. The median new house price increased 4.2% to $414,400 in December from a year earlier.

• March WTI crude futures were off slightly overnight despite recent comments from Trump about a potential Iran strike.  Softer GDP data didn’t help on the demand side and futures faded a bit further by mid-morning.  Trump’s afternoon comments on new tariffs coming in different forms than the first round perhaps prompted investors to see either a weaker economy leading to incremental rate cuts or more cash coming into the US leading to stronger growth, either of which could support the rally back to green in oil with the April contract settling +$0.08/bbl, or +0.12%, at $66.48.

• Specialty Retail: BBWI announced its official launch in AMZN’s U.S. stores, making it easier than ever for consumers to discover and Shop the brand's iconic fragrances and most loved products. YETI was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B Riley and raise tgt to $54 as sees an attractive risk/reward at current share levels.
• In Restaurants: TXRH Q4 results missed expectations as EPS missed consensus as comp sales growth came in below Street forecasts and as inflation weighed on store-level profitability; comp trends reaccelerated in the Q1, which seemed to propel the stock higher in after-market hours; announced a more aggressive price menu.
• In Food & Grocer: SFM reported in-line Q4 results but introduced FY26 guidance below Street expectations. Q4 EPS of $0.92 topped a Street figure of $0.89. However, management introduced 2026 guidance inclusive of the 53rd week in the range of $5.49-5.65, short of a Street figure of $5.69.
• In Beverages: CELH shares jumped after executive at CAGNY conference highlighted the company's transformation into a multi-brand energy platform, strategic growth, and market positioning in the functional beverage and energy drink category. Celsius emphasized its strong position in the U.S. energy drink market, achieving around 20% share (with significant y/y gains, e.g., +8 points in some metrics). A major positive was commentary on retail execution via the PEP partnership, which strengthens distribution and in-store presence. Post-resets, Celsius anticipates +17% distribution/space gains, while Alani Nu expects over 100% increase

• Home Supplies/Fixtures: FIX reported Q4 revenue +42% Y/y and +8% q/q in what is supposed to be a seasonally slow quarter while organic growth continues to accelerate, +35% in Q4 (+26.2% in 2025) while margins expand as EBITDA margin was 17.5% in Q4, +350 bps Y/y. Backlog nearly doubled Y/y with a 2x BTB in Q4; FND reported adjusted earnings per share for Q4 that exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• Building Products: Analysts out with comments from Builder Show. Truist issues updated from the IBS trade show saying commentary remains muted on new construction and R&R as most are projecting a flattish year with pent-up demand building. Specific commentary pointed to (a) a refocus on the customer at TREX with marketing spend and products (b) some pricing pressure on insulation and roofing with substantial volume declines in the latter easing of late impacting AMRZ, OC, and QXO, who we believe will do more deals, (c) joint displays of products by TREX in response to JHX combination creating a stir and (d) continued MAS product launches driving growth. Stocks in our group continue to trade on govt action on housing, but fundamentals are flattening.

• In Auto Dealers: GPI was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan while the firm downgraded LAD to Neutral in franchised Auto dealers Q425 Wrap saying they continue to see room for modest Re-rating after weaker than expected Q425 EPS season and slow start to Q126; Parts & Services continues to shine and tax benefits likely to provide a boost to units near-term. Net-net, 2026 estimates moved a touch lower on average for the sector.
• In other Auto movers: BWA was downgraded to Sell, raise PT to $55 from $49 at UBS saying the optimistic case for their new data center power Generation opportunity is priced in. CPRT shares fell after posting Q4 revs and EPS missed, Q2 EPS $0.36 vs est $0.39 on revs $1.12B vs est $1.144B, Gross profit $492.8M, 9.3% below Street, and gross margins declined ~120 bps Y/Y (43.9% vs 45.2%) and weaker Ebitda $454.3M, vs. Street $501.9M.

• In Mortgage Services: OPEN reported Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.07), smaller than expected loss (-$0.11) as revs fell -32% Y/y to $736M but beat consensus $594M; said increased homes purchased by 46% quarter-over-quarter and significantly reduced our capital Intensity.

• AMH initial 2026 CFFO guidance missed consensus by 1% at the midpoint. SS Rev. growth guidance of ~2.3% implies continued deceleration in top-line growth vs. the 3% increase reported in 4Q25, as lease rate growth moderates to 2.5% and lower occupancy adds further pressure.
• EXR posted a 4Q beat that drove FY25 Core FFO above the top end of the range. Initial FY26 Core FFO guidance came in ~0.8% below consensus at the midpoint. SSREV/SSNOI growth are expected to improve modestly in 2026, while expense growth moderates to a more favorable range.
• GLPI reported a 4Q25 beat (+$0.01 vs. consensus), and initial FY26 AFFO guidance of $4.06–$4.11 is ~0.6% above consensus at the mid-point. However, consensus appears mixed, with some estimates reflecting the recently announced $700M Lincoln acquisition.
• INVH reported Core FFO of $0.48, which was in line with consensus and issued full-year guidance for Core FFO of $1.90-$1.98, which was below expectation of $1.99 per share. Most of the difference was related to non-core items including fee income and advocacy costs.
• MPT reported a headline NFFO beat, or in line after adjusting for a onetime cash rent payment of $18M ($0.03/share). Cash rent collections at assets formerly leased to Steward continued to ramp on pace with expectations.

• ARDX shares fell after reporting a wider quarterly loss while and saying expects 2026 Ibsrela revenue to be $410M-$430M (50%-57% Y/y growth), and mgmt is now guiding towards >$1B peak sales, with $1B revenue expected in 2029 and continued growth through LOE.
• BNTX sued MRNA in Delaware federal court on Thursday, alleging that Moderna's COVID-19 shot mNEXSPIKE infringes a patent related to COVID vaccine technology.
• GH reported Q425 revenue of $281.3M (+39.4% Y/y) ahead of consensus driven by strong growth in Oncology (+30% Y/y) and screening (+$11M q/q) revenue with Biopharma also showing solid growth in the quarter (+9% Y/y); gross margin also beat, but operating Income and EPS came in below expectations.
• GRAL shares tumbled after the company disclosed that its NHS-Galleri trial did not hit statistical significance on its primary end point of combined Stage III-IV reduction, though a favorable trend was observed over time.
• OGN said an independent review found no wrongdoing in how it recorded earlier purchases of biosimilars, which are lower‑cost versions of complex biologic drugs; said its board audit committee launched the review after concerns were raised about timing of past biosimilar purchases; review found no need to revise past SEC filings.
• PTCT reported Q4 results and maintained its FY26 guidance, both of which were consistent vs figures reported last month though 4Q product and royalty revenue of $831n came in higher than the pre-announced $823m.
• TNDM Q4 and full year revenue exceeded consensus driven by strong underlying market demand; a moderating pace of share erosion; and positive pricing; sees FY25 revenue $1.065B to $1.085B, below consensus $1.10B but introduced a new “pay-as-you-go” pricing model in US pharmacies.

• Precious metals: gold and silver prices rebounded heading into weekend with Iran and tariff impact weighing on investor minds. HBM declined initially after the miner reported Q4 adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate as production fell y/y; NEM slides after the world’s biggest gold miner said it expects to produce less bullion this year, due to planned upgrades at some of its managed mines and lower output at two joint ventures with Barrick Mining/posted its fifth straight earnings and revenue beat for the fourth quarter.
• Steel sector: RS downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan with a new $330 PT as it feels current valuation more than reflects elevated 1H pricing, which could rollover into 2H, while tariff-driven Aluminum margin pressure may persist well into 2H amid lagging semi and commercial aero demand.

• In IT Services & Consulting: AKAM shares fell after reported a Q4 beat, with revenue growth improving to +7% YoY as both Compute and Security (up 14% and 11%, respectively) accelerated, while the headwind from Delivery mitigated this quarter (to negative 2%), but falls on lower profit forecast for Q1 and FY26.
• In Software: RNG shares rose on Q4 results beating with 4Q Subscription and Total Revenue up 5.5% and 4.8%, both in line, EBITDA grew 10.4% to $169M with margins expanding 130bps and Non-GAAP EPS accelerated 21.0% to $1.18, a 4% beat and above the high end of guidance. WK shares rose after Q4 results that beat expectations and gave revenue forecasts for both the first quarter and the full year that are seen as positive.
• In Semis: ONTO Q4 revenue was in line, and underlying momentum improved meaningfully, securing a massive $240M HBM volume purchase agreement and guided higher for both 1Q (revs guided to $280 mid-point vs. est. of $272M) and 2Q (revs guided >$300M vs. est. of $287M) on the back of dramatically better visibility and an improving demand backdrop within the company's Advanced Packaging and Advanced Nodes businesses.

Street Recommendations

Friday, February 20, 2026

• BLDR Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Builders FirstSource to $124 from $136 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's 2026 guidance is second half-weighted and Barclays is generally cautious on the new residential end market outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm believes Builders' gross margin "resilience and cost control should prevail."
• CRWD Barclays lowered the firm's price target on CrowdStrike to $550 from $610 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the earnings report on March 3. The firm model net new annual recurring revenue of $300M, but sees an upside scenario of $330M.
• TXRH Barclays raised the firm's price target on Texas Roadhouse to $188 from $185 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's Q4 report fell short on all key metrics, with its comp growth slowing through the quarter and beef inflation outsized, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm says Texas Roadhouse's Q1 comps re-accelerated.
• WH Barclays raised the firm's price target on Wyndham Hotels to $98 from $93 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The company reported a "muted end to a tough year," but its guidance should put a bottom in 2026 estimates, with early signs of firming demand across the industry, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LZ Barclays lowered the firm's price target on LegalZoom to $9 from $12 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The company posted a solid quarter with the double-digit organic subscription revenue growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm believes tough compares and the AI overhang on "legal" make the share setup for 2026 "a bit more challenging."

• NTR BofA raised the firm's price target on Nutrien to $71 from $64 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The backdrop of a nutrient market where pricing is holding in stronger for longer is driving the firm's estimates higher, but over the medium term the firm remains "a bit skeptical on how durable this view is given rising potash supply," the analyst tells investors.
• TNDM BofA upgraded Tandem Diabetes to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $30, up from $15. Tandem is moving more into the pharmacy channel and shifting more to a pay as you go business model, notes the analyst, who sees it becoming a more profitable company over the next two years. Tandem is saying its leading indicator, new starts, will finally return to growth and that it sees accelerated revenue growth in 2027, the analyst added.
• PTCT BofA lowered the firm's price target on PTC Therapeutics to $93 from $97 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates after the Q4 report, stating that it continues to be "encouraged" by the early Sephience launch that is tracking in line with the firm's initial physician survey.
• MDGL BofA lowered the firm's price target on Madrigal Pharmaceuticals to $529 from $570 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Following quarterly results and the associated call, the firm is "modestly" lowering forecasts after incorporating the team's comments on gross-to-net adjustments, the analyst tells investors.
• SFM BofA analyst Robert Ohmes lowered the firm's price target on Sprouts Farmers Market to $92 from $104 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm now models 2026 EPS of $5.50, down from $5.70 previously, as Sprouts could see pressure from the loyalty program and a more promotional environment to support affordability and traffic growth. However, it sees support for reaccelerating comp trends in the second half as comparisons ease.

• CARG BTIG analyst Marvin Fong lowered the firm's price target on CarGurus to $37 from $44 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's guidance finally gave clarity to prior comments that 2026 EBITDA margins would experience a slight step down, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• WK BTIG analyst Allan Verkhovski lowered the firm's price target on Workiva to $90 from $105 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered solid results, though the firm is reducing its price target to reflect a broader pullback in the software space, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• DOCN Canaccord raised the firm's price target on DigitalOcean to $80 from $65 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of its Q4 report and said firm's transition into a budding leader in the AI ecosystem has begun to win over skeptics over the past six months and they believe the story is just getting started. Canaccord continues to believe the revenue potential from the 30MW of new capacity (leases coming online in March, fully deployed in 1H26) is not fully reflected in estimates.
• FIVN Canaccord analyst David Hynes lowered the firm's price target on Five9 to $33 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Five9's Q4 results came in largely as expected. Revenue was at the high-end of the range, and overall growth of 8% was consistent with last quarter and EBITDA margins were healthy again.
• GH Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Guardant Health to $135 from $125 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they remain bullish after a strong finish to 2025 and solid outlook for 2026 (with multiple potential catalysts). The price target raise is primarily driven by increased revenue assumptions in the outer years of their 10-year DCF model.
• BEAM Canaccord analyst Whitney Ijem initiated coverage of Beam Therapeutics with a Buy rating and $74 price target. The company's last 12-18 months has been "impressive." Canaccord thinks news flow this year, starting soon with BEAM-302 data by the end of Q1, will drive share upside. Beam continues its transformation "from a cool platform (said in a whisper) story to late-stage clinical co with compelling data in large orphan markets," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Canaccord expects the company to maintain its execution momentum in 2026.

• FIVN Cantor Fitzgerald lowered the firm's price target on Five9 to $26 from $32 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Five9 reported a modest Q4 revenue beat with stronger-than-expected margins and free cash flow at 22% of revenue, supported by record enterprise AI bookings that more than doubled year over year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Growth continues to be driven by platform sales combining human-in-the-loop and fully automated AI customer experience, contributing to a highly visible backlog and supporting continued double-digit subscription revenue growth guidance for 2026, Cantor says.
• PWR Cantor Fitzgerald raised the firm's price target on Quanta Services to $630 from $520 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Quanta Services reinforced its position as a differentiated player in E&C, highlighting durable end-market demand, multi-year backlog visibility, and disciplined risk management, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company is well-positioned to benefit from a multi-year North American infrastructure cycle, supported by utility modernization, growing large-load demand, and increasing power generation needs, the firm says.

• CVNA Citi analyst Ronald Josey lowered the firm's price target on Carvana to $465 from $550 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites greater market volatility for target cut post the company's Q4 report. Citi believes Carvana's Q1 and 2026 guidance are likely to prove conservative and would buy the stock on any weakness.
• DASH Citi analyst Ronald Josey lowered the firm's price target on DoorDash to $280 from $283 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported better than expected Q4 results. It sees DoorDash;s EBITDA improving throughout 2026. The stock remains Citi's top pick across the internet sector.

• HOOD Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro lowered the firm's price target on Robinhood to $111 from $130 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Robinhood showed strong January metrics, including 9% annualized growth in funded accounts to 27.2million, equity and crypto volumes up 57% and 12% year over year, and prediction market event contracts rising 17% month over month to $3.4B, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Platform activity remained robust with app downloads up 30% m/m and daily commissions rising 13% to $10M, prompting an update to January-adjusted estimates, the firm says.

• WMT HSBC downgraded Walmart to Hold from Buy with a price target of $131, up from $122. The company reported solid Q4 results but its outlook for 2026 is "surprisingly weak," the analyst tells investors in a research note. HSBC cut estimates post the earnings print and cites Walmart's "lack of immediate momentum" for the downgrade. The stock's the valuation discount versus Costco has now largely been eliminated, the firm adds.

• CSGP Jefferies upgraded CoStar Group to Buy from Hold with a price target of $67, down from $84. The firm says investor debate around Homes.com has created an attractive entry point. The presence of activists "simply heightens" CoStar's focus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies points out the stock has been range-bound over the past five years as the company underwent its largest ever investment cycle to try and build a new line of business. It sees CoStar's adjusted EBITDA tripling to $2.4B in 2030 on margins getting to 36%.
• AEP Jefferies raised the firm's price target on American Electric to $150 from $137 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the stock's investment thesis has "strengthened materially" since October, when the company's contracted load stood at 28 GW. That figure has now doubled to 56 GW by 2030, concentrated in ERCOT at 36 GW, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ONTO Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Onto Innovation to $300 from $200 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Orders are flowing in, with backlog doubling in the quarter to half a year of revenue, notes the analyst, who adds that good line of sight to growth starting in the second quarter helps derisk the story.

• GPI JPMorgan upgraded Group 1 Automotive to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $370. The firm believes the company's estimates "are now closer to reset." The stock's de-rating has been more severe than warranted given Group 1's "best-in-class execution," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LAD JPMorgan downgraded Lithia & Driveway to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $335, down from $350. The company's visibility on execution remains a challenge, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says that while Lithia's same-store performance was strong in Q4, it was more than offset by weaker than expected cost control. The company's balance sheet leverage has now moved towards the higher-end of the target range, adds the firm.
• BKNG JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Booking Holdings to $5,600 from $6,250 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q4 results as strong and says Booking offered an "encouraging" outlook. The company's guidance could have upside as evidenced by Booking's multi-year execution and due to the transformation savings, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ULTA JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $800 from $647 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm also removed Ulta from its Analyst Focus List due to the recent rally in the shares and conservative" 2026 guidance expectations. Ulta's outlook is more second-half weighted than the Street is currently forecasting, particularly Q1, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SFM JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Sprouts Farmers Market to $77 from $88 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's Q4 comp sales and earnings were ahead of estimates, but its 2026 outlooks for comp sales and earnings were light, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• W JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Wayfair to $105 from $114 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported "strong" results with a "prudent" outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan added Wayfair to its Analyst Focus List as a growth idea citing the recent pullback in the shares. The company's accelerated share gains from Q4 continues with the market ticking down earlier in Q1 during extreme weather conditions, contends the firm.

• INVH KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Invitation Homes to $34 from $38 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views Invitation's 340 bps underperformance vs. the Residential REITs following Q4 earnings as overdone. While the call offered limited near-term catalysts surrounding either an improvement in fundamentals or clarity around the proposed ban on institutional SFR ownership, KeyBanc views current risks and the operating backdrop to be priced in at a 13% AFFO multiple discount.

• CRL Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Charles River to $175 from $215 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm reduced estimates following the company's "mixed" Q4 report. It cites Charles River's slower organic growth profile in 2026, lower free cash flow in 2026 than expected, and a lower trading multiple given concerns about AI for the industry for the target cut.
• TALK Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Talkspace to $6 from $4 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says the company's leverage to strong end market demand for virtual behavioral health services and engagement translated into accelerating revenue growth to 29% in Q4. It views Talkspace's 2026 outlook as "robust."

• AKAM Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh raised the firm's price target on Akamai to $120 from $115 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares, telling investors that the firm comes out of Q4 more confident in its acceleration thesis. Higher capex reflects large inference wins and a strong pipeline, while lower margins reflect timing and not poor quality AI revenue streams, the analyst contends in a post-earnings note.
• LYV Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Live Nation to $185 from $170 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. After delivering double digit percentage earnings growth in 2025, Live Nation expects to deliver similar or improved growth in 2026, notes the analyst, who sees this underlining the company's ability to generate strong and sustained growth over time.
• EPAM Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Epam Systems to $160 from $175 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. A lower-than-expected 2026 outlook and "slightly muted" budgetary commentary pushed shares down 17%, notes the analyst, who views the muted budget growth commentary, offset by reassuring pricing remarks, as having "a mixed read-through" for the broader IT Services group.
• FUN Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Six Flags to $18 from $17 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The path of recovery in 2026 relies on the company's ability to rebuild attendance heading into the May/June operating season, says the analyst, who sees an opportunity for improving fundamentals.

• WEAV Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Weave to $8 from $12 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company posted another quarter of 17% year-over-year growth, driven by payments, strong location additions, and the recent TrueLark acquisition. FY26 top-line growth guidance of 14.8% year-over-year came in roughly in-line with consensus expectations and implies a deceleration from the 17.0% growth in FY25, while operating income guidance implies 190 bps of operating margin expansion in the coming year. Looking ahead, Piper expects AI and specialty medical to be the biggest growth drivers in FY26.
• ICUI Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on ICU Medical to $178 from $172 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following quarterly results. Guidance for 2026 bracketed Street like the firm thought and should have consensus EBITDA and EPS rising slightly as models are updated, and it's increasingly evident that business functions/operations are simply running better with each passing quarter.
• TNDM Piper Sandler analyst Matt O'Brien raised the firm's price target on Tandem Diabetes to $21 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes Tandem reported Q4 results that beat its estimates on the top and bottom lines. Pharmacy contribution and the transition to direct distribution internationally were the two main themes of the call, both of which helped drive the outperformance in the quarter. Piper likes the progress we are seeing on both fronts, though there still is a reasonable amount of wood left to chop from here. Overall, while the firm believes results demonstrated solid progress, there are still some areas it would like to get more comfortable on before becoming more constructive.

• PAY Raymond James upgraded Paymentus to Strong Buy from Outperform with a price target of $35, down from $41. The stock has been added to the Analyst Current Favorites list following a 30% pullback versus a 13% gain for the Russell 2000 over the past three months, creating an attractive risk/reward, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Strong $4 results are anticipated, with potential upside to contribution profit and adjusted EBITDA in 2026, Raymond James says.

• W RBC Capital analyst Steven Shemesh raised the firm's price target on Wayfair to $92 from $86 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company posted strong Q4 results, but a continued muted category outlook and the management comments on gross margins potentially dipping below 30% are weighing on shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• VC RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Visteon to $127 from $140 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance came in well below consensus expectations, largely driven by one-offs and lower revenues y/y, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds however that the estimated headwind from BMS sales could be overstated.
• FTI RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on TechnipFMC to $70 from $47 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings beat. The company has also further increased its Subsea EBITDA margin guidance and sees a continued strong tender pipeline amid positive investor sentiment for sustained offshore activity, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SFM RBC Capital analyst Steven Shemesh lowered the firm's price target on Sprouts Farmers Market to $114 from $140 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 results and below consensus guide. The firm intends to keep a pulse on traffic trends, but also notes that it's worth considering whether soft 2026 guidance embeds risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Given recent traffic softness, RBC is also trimming its target enterprise value to EBITDA multiple from about 13x to 11x, the firm added.

• WK Stephens lowered the firm's price target on Workiva to $90 from $100 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm thinks the Q4 results, guidance and call "provided ample evidence growth is less AI-risky" than the market believes, the analyst tells investors.

• TXG UBS raised the firm's price target on 10x Genomics to $20 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Despite positive U.S. academic funding headlines, academic demand is expected to remain muted in 2026 as customers await more consistent funding disbursements, leading to a projected 10% decline in instrument revenue, the analyst tells investors in a research note. In consumables, continued pressure in single-cell products, following 20% pricing declines in FY25 tied to Flex Apex adoption, is expected to be partially offset by double-digit growth in spatial consumables, the firm adds.
• AKAM UBS analyst Roger Boyd raised the firm's price target on Akamai to $110 from $90 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Akamai's results came in largely in line with high expectations, with upside driven mainly by the Delivery segment, alongside an FY26 outlook calling for modest revenue acceleration supported by a 2H-weighted ramp in CIS, which exited Q4 growing 50%+ year over year at a roughly $375M run rate, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm would look for a better entry point to shares.
• LYV UBS raised the firm's price target on Live Nation to $181 from $164 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Live Nation delivered a Q4 beat, with revenue of $6.3B and AOI of $194M, ahead of expectations across segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The 2026 outlook calls for continued double-digit AOI growth, supported by Concert and Sponsorship strength and increased $1.2B capex for venue expansion, while Ticketing faces modest pressure from efforts to curb secondary activity, reinforcing a long-term growth trajectory tied to owned-and-operated venue expansion and pricing opportunities, UBS says.

• PTCT Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on PTC Therapeutics to $86 from $93 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm was encouraged by commentary on the Sephience refill rate, and expects this to be a tailwind. Wells thinks some deceleration is likely, but model positive growth on the assumption of greater penetration within key centers.
• SO Wells Fargo upgraded Southern Company to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $96, up from $84. The firm says the company "came out swinging at the bears" by upping long-term earnings growth target to 7%-8% from 5%-7%. The updated guidance ":was clearly ahead of our expectations, which came as a surprise," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells admits to being wrong on Southern Company shares. It now takes a "more balanced view" on the name.
• SFM Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Sprouts Farmers Market to $100 from $110 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the Q4 update was disappointing as expected. Comparable sales soften further into 2026 and talk of targeted value investment adds fuel to over-earning fears, Wells says. Cost driven P&L protection is the only positive. The firm believes Sprouts is going nowhere near-term, but risk/reward on second half of the year recovery is good.

• ZBH William Blair analyst Steven Lichtman initiated coverage of Zimmer Biomet with a Market Perform rating and no price target. The company has done a good job of "de-risking" 2026 estimates by accounting for potential disruption, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm wants to monitor Zimmer's execution on its com mercial changes in the U.S. before recommending the shares.
• SYK William Blair initiated coverage of Stryker with an Outperform rating and no price target. The company has "significantly expanded its reach" beyond knees and hips and capital equipment over the past decade, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees faster sales and earnings growth over the next two years for Stryker versus peers, led by the company's "diversified" growth product portfolio.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET                 Durable Goods, M/M for December
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory orders M/M for December
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Manufacturing for February

• Earnings After the Close: ACVA ADUS AESI ALSN APLE BBBY BHF BLZE BMRN BOOM BSM BWXT CNNE CWEN ERIE EVERFANG FWRD GNW HIMS HLX IIPR KEYS KTOS KWR MAX MYGN OKE OPAD OSG OVV PAY PLOW PRIM RHP SGHC SIGB SKWD SMMT TARS TNC UCTT UFPI VIR VNOM VVX ZD

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Price Index M/M for December
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20-city Index, for December
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Richmond Fed Index for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for December
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ABCL AMC ATEC ATRO AXON BBIO BXC CAVA CCC CDNA CLNE CORT CSGP CWH CYTK DAWN EOH EVH EXLS EXPI FLYW FSLR GDDY GMED GPOR HPQ HURN IPAR JAZZ LAB LCID LTC MATX MELI MMSI MOS MQ MTDR NVTS O PARR PCVX PRCT PSTL RCKY REZI RRC RVLV SEI SKT SPXC SUI SUPN TALO TEM TMDX TREX UIS UVE VRRM WDAY ZETA

• Global Alts Miami 2026, 2/23-2/26, in Miami Beach, FL
• Cantor 2026 Annual San Diego Biotech Bus Tour, 2/24-2/26
• TD Cowen 3rd Annual Glowing Ahead Summit: Beauty's Evolution & Longevity as Luxury, 2/24-2/25, in New York

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: A ACAD ADMA ADTN AHT AI ALKT APA ARKO ARQT ARRY BBSI BJRI CBZ CHDN CHE CHRD CPRX CRGY CRM CWT DORM ECPG EE EHTH ENVX EPR ERII FSK FTAI GDRX GMRE GRBK HCI HNST IBTA IMAX INN IONQ JOBY KGS LB LMAT LXU MDXG MEG MGNI MIRM MRVI NYRG NGVT NOG NRDS NSA NTNX NU NVDA ORA OSUR OUT PEB PR PSKY PSTG RDW ROOT RRGB RVMD SARO SBGI SBLK SDRL SEZL SKYT SLNO SM SMA SNOW SNPS SSP STRL SVC TASK TCOM TDOC TKO TTD TTI UHS UMH USPH VAC VCYT VECO VICI VTOL WHD WTRG XPER ZIP ZM

• Global Alts Miami 2026, 2/23-2/26, in Miami Beach, FL

• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare Life Sciences Conference, 2/25-2/26, in New York
• Piper Western Bank forum, 2/25-2/26 in Los Angeles, CA
• TD Cowen 3rd Annual Glowing Ahead Summit: Beauty's Evolution & Longevity as Luxury, 2/24-2/25, in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for February
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AAOI ACA ADSK AES AEVA AGO ALHC AMBA ARLO AVPT BCO BVN BWIN CABO CAI CLOV CODI COMP CON CPK CPNG CRWV CSTL CTRA CUBE DELL DRH DUOL DV EBS ESTC EVTC EXFY FIGR FIGS FOXF GLOB GSBD ICFI INTU KIDS LASR MAIN MASI MFIC MP MTZ NATL NRDY NTAP NTRA OPK OPRT OS OSPN PAR PBYI PCRX PCT PGNY PUBM QXO RC REAL RKLB RKT RLJ RUN SBAC SG SRM SOLV SOUN SPT STRZ TLN TPC TTEV VSEC WULF XPOF XRAY XYZ ZS

• Global Alts Miami 2026, 2/23-2/26, in Miami Beach, FL

• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare Life Sciences Conference, 2/25-2/26, in New York
• Piper Western Bank forum, 2/25-2/26 in Los Angeles, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline final Y/Y for January
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) final M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) final Y/Y for January
• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for November
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data