Early Look

Monday, October 5, 2026

U.S. futures are edging lower to start the week as Treasury yields remain elevated, though the Nasdaq remains around all-time highs as Technology and AI stocks help lead markets. The market has remained remarkably resilient amid recent turmoil in the bond market and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Last week, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow fell 1.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.5%. Recall for the month of September, which closed out last week, the S&P 500 fell -0.4%, the Dow fell -4.3% and the Nasdaq rose 1.9%; For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose 2.0%, the Dow fell -2.7% and the Nasdaq rose 2.5%. Highlights this week include the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday and then the unofficial start to earnings seasons with PEP, DAL earnings. On the economic calendar today, investors will monitor the PMI Composite Final and ISM Services Index for clues on the strength of the economy and the outlook for interest rates. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,637 points or 2.4% to 69,946, the Shanghai Index remain closed for Golden Week, and the Hang Seng Index rose 68 points to 24,040. In Europe, the German DAX is down -35 points to 25,194, while the FTSE 100 rises 24 points to 10,486.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 250.40 points, or 0.49%, to 51,176.96
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 319.27 points, or 1.19%, to 27.190.86
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 26.27 points, or 0.94% to 2,832.90

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-final…prior 58.7
• 10:00 AM ET                 Employment Trends for September
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for September…est. 55.0

• Earnings After the Close: None

• Iran said it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. meets seven conditions outlined in an earlier agreement, Reuters reported. The position could prolong disruptions in one of the world's key energy corridors, keeping investors focused on potential effects on oil prices, shipping, and inflation.

• Harley-Davidson (HOG) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup and raised tgt to $33, while raising its Q326, Q426, 2027, and 2028 estimates. Citi has been cautious for several years, and for good reason, but the facts on the ground have changed enough to warrant a more constructive view.
• The U.K. is preparing to impose tariffs on Chinese electric-vehicle imports as it seeks to maintain access to a European manufacturing initiative, the Times of London reported Sunday.

• Redwire (RDW) was awarded a follow-on contract by Axiom Space to develop and deliver two Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) wings for the second module of Axiom Station. Redwire is also developing ROSA wings for the station’s first module, which is expected to launch in 2028.
• U.S. solar manufacturers are nearing commercialization of tandem solar panels, a technology that could generate 25% more energy than conventional panels by stacking multiple materials, potentially reducing land and roof requirements while challenging China's dominance as companies including First Solar (FSLR) and Hanwha Qcells advance toward commercial production – NY Times.
• Vistra (VST) shares rise as the U.S. will lend the company about $4.2 billion to boost its nuclear power generation, a person familiar with the matter said on Saturday. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright will make the announcement on Monday at Vistra's nuclear plant along Lake Erie in Ohio, said the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, reported Reuters.

• Virtu Financial (VIRT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with an $84 price target.
• Auto Insurance companies in focus (ALL, PGR, TRV) after the WSJ reported Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Josh Hawley are investigating how major home and Auto insurers process claims after a Wall Street Journal report found rising odds that some policyholders receive no payout. The lawmakers asked six large insurers for data and explanations, putting additional scrutiny on claims practices that could affect insurers' regulatory and reputational risks. U.S. property and casualty insurers reported $31.2B of underwriting profits for the first half of this year, nearly triple the $10.9B for the same period last year https://tinyurl.com/yhpc73kp

• Foxconn reported a 47% y/y surge in Q3 revenue, beating estimates on strong AI demand; said Q3 revs were T$3.03T ($95.4B), well above estimate of T$2.83 trillion; reported September ​revenue of $1.16T, up 38.42% year-on-year.
• Intel (INTC) shares fell in premarket trading on Monday after Elon Musk signaled that Taiwan Semi (TSM) is in talks to help run his chip venture, Terafab. Elon Musk stated on X that TSMC and Terafab are in discussions, though he noted that TSMC could supplement rather than replace Intel’s role. Intel joined the Terafab project, which also includes SpaceX and Tesla, in April.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) and Huawei agreed to a multi-year patent licensing deal covering 5G, computing, AI, and networking technologies. The agreement includes cross-licenses to their respective patent portfolios, while Qualcomm will also acquire certain Huawei U.S. patents covering computing, AI, networking, and other technologies, subject to regulatory approvals.
• Schneider Electric (SBGSY) agreed to acquire U.S. engineering software company PTC (PTC) for around $22.6B, as it builds up its data centre business amid booming demand. The $205/share offer implying an enterprise value of $23.7B, represents a 42.3% premium to PTC's last closing price.
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said his company remains fundamentally divided with rival Anthropic over how aggressively artificial intelligence should be regulated, arguing that society should tolerate some harms in exchange for the technology's broader benefits and widespread availability.

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, October 05, 2026

U.S. stocks bounce on the open as tech/communications lead the Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher while the Dow Jones Industrials lag on higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. Oil prices fell after crude exports from the Middle East increased and the Group of Seven nations pledged to boost supplies, though selling was limited by ongoing disruption fears linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran. The Brent benchmark was supported by renewed strength in fuel products. Gold prices advanced, supported by continued worries about rising US government debt and fading expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike after weaker jobs data last Friday, although a firmer dollar limited gains. A few notable movers again this morning as their was an M&A deal in transports as CHRW buys RXO for $5.8B, software company PTC gets acquired by Schneider Electric (SBGSY) for $205 per share offer implying an enterprise value of $23.7B and CVE said it would acquire Athabasca Oil in a cash-and-stock transaction. Drug stock movers too as ALEC, ALVO, PCVX rise on drug data. Brazilian stocks surging (BBD, MELI, PBR, VALE, ITUB) after Presidential election news. Semis (SOX) are mixed as memory stocks claw back losses from Friday while the rest of the space slips. Note that the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector is on track for a 9th straight down week while both the Consumer Staples (XLP) & Real Estate (XLRE) are working on 8-week losing streaks. Markets now heading into Q3 earnings season starting later this week with Pepsi and Delta, before the banks kick off next week. We are also now about a month away from mid-term elections.

• ISM report on U.S. non-manufacturing sector shows PMI 54.9 in September (consensus 55.0) vs 55.4 in August; ISM non-manufacturing business activity index 56.5 in September vs 61.7 in August; ISM non-manufacturing prices paid index 74.0 in September vs 72.6 in August; ISM non-manufacturing new orders index 59.8 in September vs 60.9 in August; ISM non-manufacturing employment index 50.1 in September vs 47.8 in August.

• Brokers & Exchanges: CME said it is withdrawing plans for a 24/7, 10-barrel crude oil contract. Industry feedback raised concerns around added risk and unintended consequences. CME says it may revisit the product after further CFTC review. VIRT was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with an $84 price target saying sees Virtu as well positioned to grow its business, leveraging what it sees as a greater opportunity set driven by product innovation and new product proliferation with greater capacity driven by retained earnings and growth in equity and trading capital.
• Transport sector: CHRW entered into a definitive agreement to acquire truck broker RXO in a stock-and-cash transaction for an implied value of $5.8B and will create a combined company with an enterprise value of over $25B. CHRW said the deal values RXO at $30.25 a share, a 29% premium to Friday's closing price. In research, Ryder (R) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan following the recent pullback as structural changes to the business model should create higher highs and higher lows, while improving used truck prices provide a unique tailwind. The change was part of a broader Transport sector earnings preview noting fuel remains a key theme and the recent surge likely contributed somewhat to the spot rate weakness given Brokers pay on an all-in basis.
• Chemicals sector: MOS was downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital saying the recovery in phosphates could stretch into mid-2027 as assets remain idle for longer and delayed spending pushes out cash generation, and sees downside risk to Mosaic's 2027 consensus estimates. NTR said it will indefinitely shut its Trinidad Nitrogen operations at the Point Lisas facility after a review of strategic alternatives, citing ongoing Natural gas supply constraints and uncertainty in the Country.

• BBD +18%,; along with shares of other Brazilian stocks MELI, ITUB, PBR, VALE as Brazilian markets rally after right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed private poll predictions and took the lead in Sunday's presidential election first round, leading incumbent Lula.
• CBRS +8%; after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a social media post Friday the chipmaker is “a close partner” of OpenAI and the two firms have a deep Engagement pushing on the Frontiers of speed. Altman's comments were in response to speculation over OpenAI’s partnership with Cerebras.
• DKNG +6%; was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America with an unchanged price target of $27 noting with the stock down 47% in the past year, the firm sees the pullback creating an attractive entry point; sees prediction markets as "increasingly a win-win" for DraftKings.
• FLEX +3%;  after saying it plans to spin off its Cloud and power infrastructure segment Axiom into a publicly traded company in Q1 2027; secures a $2B investment in Axiom, valuing it at $37.5B, led by General Catalyst and Koch Equity Development.
• HOG +6%; was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup and raised tgt to $33, while raising its Q326, Q426, 2027, and 2028 estimates. Citi has been cautious for several years, and for good reason, but the facts on the ground have changed enough to warrant a more constructive view.
• PCVX +37%; after saying its 31-strain pneumonia vaccine, VAX-31, met all main goals in a late-stage trial and generates immune responses comparable to or better than PFE’s Prevnar 20 and MRK’s Capvaxive. The vaccine is as safe and well tolerated as the current vaccines.
• PTC +36%; as Schneider Electric (SBGSY) agreed to acquire the U.S. engineering software for $205 per share offer implying an enterprise value of $23.7B, represents a 42.3% premium to prior closing price.
• RXO +22%; CHRW to acquire truck broker RXO in a stock-and-cash transaction for an implied value of $5.8B and will create a combined company with an enterprise value of over $25B. CHRS said the deal values RXO at $30.25 a share, a 29% premium to Friday's closing price

• INSM -7%; said CFO Sara Bonstein is leaving the company at the end of October. No reason for her departure was offered, but Insmed reaffirmed its financial guidance for the rest of the year.
• INTC -2%; shares fell after Elon Musk signaled that TSM is in talks to help run his chip venture, Terafab. Elon Musk stated on X that TSMC and Terafab are in discussions, though he noted that TSM could supplement rather than replace Intel’s role.
• LQDA -5%; adds to recent weakness following the patent infringement ruling that Yutrepia infringes the two key '327 patent claims which strengthens UTHR Tyvaso franchise and increases the risk to Liqudia’s PH-ILD opportunity
• NXH -19%; after provides business update and announces $45.5M equity financing with participation from management and single institutional investor; offering priced at closing price with warrants exercisable at 25% premium to close and non-exercisable for first 6 mos.

Closing Recap

Monday, October 05, 2026

U.S. stocks managed another solid day, with the S&P 500 rising over +0.6% (slipping in final minutes of trading on the day) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) up 15% back at fresh all-time highs as another spike in Treasury yields and borrowing costs has done little to dent sentiment in the AI trade heading into Q3 results. Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) saw solid gains on Monday led by large cap giants (GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA), but some consumer and housing related names saw notable declines as companies LEN, LOW in housing or consumer giants like MCD hit 52-week lows before bouncing. The Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector is on trying to avoid a 9th straight down week while both the Consumer Staples (XLP) & Real Estate (XLRE) are working on 8-week losing streaks (both sectors were up today). Overall, the trend remains up for broader averages (despite several weak market internals such as market breadth and or 52-week highs/lows) as nominal GDP growth is strong, earnings growth remains positive into Q3 season, and  the flow-of-funds is supportive. The S&P 500 remains little changed overall from just 2 months ago while tech has been the market leader. One of the bigger stories today was emerging markets as Brazilian markets surged more than 8% and its currency over 4% after right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed opinion polls to finish first in the first round of Sunday's presidential election vs. incumbent Lula. There were several notable stock moving today on M&A news (PTC, RXO) along with movers in the biotech space on drug headlines (all below).

• ISM report on U.S. non-manufacturing sector shows PMI 54.9 in September (consensus 55.0) vs 55.4 in August; ISM non-manufacturing business activity index 56.5 in September vs 61.7 in August; ISM non-manufacturing prices paid index 74.0 in September vs 72.6 in August; ISM non-manufacturing new orders index 59.8 in September vs 60.9 in August; ISM non-manufacturing employment index 50.1 in September vs 47.8 in August.

• Gold prices erased early gains, supported initially by continued worries about rising US government debt and fading expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, although a firmer dollar limited gains. December gold fell -$5.50, or -0.13%, to settle at $4,156.80 an ounce and September silver rose +$0.88, or +1.46%, at $61.30 an ounce. The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.3%, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies.

• The U.S. dollar stays strong as the euro slid to a 17-month lows below 1.12 as concerns about France's ability to rein in its budget deficit and a sharp bond market selloff last week stirred fears of a return of sovereign debt crisis dynamics. Government borrowing costs jumped overseas, especially in France, coming under pressure amid expectations of higher policy rates and rising political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 election. The dollar/yen rose back above 158.

• Retail sector: NXH shares tumbled after provides business update and announces $45.5M equity financing with participation from management and single institutional investor; offering priced at closing price with warrants exercisable at 25% premium to close and non-exercisable for first 6 mos. FTHM shares crashed as well after mutually agreeing to terminate their proposed merger agreement with NXH, with each side retaining ownership of its respective blockchain and digital assets.
• Consumer Staples sector: in beauty, EL was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raised tgt to $108 from $97 saying believe sales growth and earnings profile over the next several years "make it among the most attractive companies the global consumer staples group.
• Restaurant sector: TXRH was upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore saying the temporary pressure on the company's sales creates a buying opportunity, citing the stock's recent 25% pullback for the upgrade.

• Leisure products sector: HOG was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup and raised tgt to $33, while raising its Q326, Q426, 2027, and 2028 estimates. Citi has been cautious for several years, and for good reason, but the facts on the ground have changed enough to warrant a more constructive view. In cruise sector, VIK mentioned positively in Barron’s saying that technical indicators point to a 24% gain for the stock in coming months. In RV space, shares of CWH declined after the company said it will cut jobs and miss its full-year outlook, as challenging macroeconomic conditions continue to hurt business (guided FY Ebitda below low end of prior $230M-$270M view vs. est. $235.8M); shares of THO, WGO declined in sympathy with CWH guidance (all three hitting 52-week lows).

• Solar sector: U.S. solar manufacturers are nearing commercialization of tandem solar panels, a technology that could generate 25% more energy than conventional panels by stacking multiple materials, potentially reducing land and roof requirements while challenging China's dominance as companies including FSLR, and Hanwha Qcells advance toward commercial production – NY Times.
• Nuclear power sector: VST shares rise as the U.S. will lend the company about $4.2 billion to boost its nuclear power generation, a person familiar with the matter said on Saturday. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright will make the announcement on Monday at Vistra's nuclear plant along Lake Erie in Ohio, said the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, reported Reuters.

• Brokers & Exchanges: CME said it is withdrawing plans for a 24/7, 10-barrel crude oil contract. Industry feedback raised concerns around added risk and unintended consequences. CME says it may revisit the product after further CFTC review. VIRT was upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan with an $84 price target saying sees Virtu as well positioned to grow its business, leveraging what it sees as a greater opportunity set driven by product innovation and new product proliferation with greater capacity driven by retained earnings and growth in equity and trading capital.

• Insurance sector: shares of auto Insurance companies in focus (ALL, PGR, TRV) after the WSJ reported Senators Elizabeth Warren and Josh Hawley are investigating how major home and Auto insurers process claims after a Wall Street Journal report found rising odds that some policyholders receive no payout. The lawmakers asked six large insurers for data and explanations, putting additional scrutiny on claims practices that could affect insurers' regulatory and reputational risks. U.S. property and casualty insurers reported $31.2B of underwriting profits for the first half of this year, nearly triple the $10.9B for the same period last year https://tinyurl.com/yhpc73kp 

• ALGN was downgraded to In Line from Outperform with a $155 PT at Evercore ISI, which cited a weakening consumer backdrop, a sharp deceleration in September demand indicators, and potential VBP headwinds in 2027.
• ALVO said it has received FDA approval for a supplement to the Biologics License Application for AVT02 (adalimumab-ryvk); decision allows drug substance for the product, marketed in the U.S as SIMLANDI, to be manufactured in a second suite at its Reykjavik facility.
• GMAB and ABBV said their combination treatment for patients newly diagnosed with a type of lymphoma reduced the risk of disease progression or death in a late-stage study.
• INSM said CFO Sara Bonstein is leaving the company at the end of October. No reason for her departure was offered, but Insmed reaffirmed its financial guidance for the rest of the year.
• LQDA adds to recent weakness following the patent infringement ruling that Yutrepia infringes the two key '327 patent claims which strengthens UTHR Tyvaso franchise and increases the risk to Liqudia’s PH-ILD opportunity
• NVO said the FDA extended the review of its treatment for hemophilia A due to "ongoing facility remediation activities" at the drug's manufacturing plant. The company had expected an approval decision by the end of October.
• PCVX shares jump after saying its 31-strain pneumonia vaccine, VAX-31, met all main goals in a late-stage trial and generates immune responses comparable to or better than PFE’s Prevnar 20 and MRK’s Capvaxive. The vaccine is as safe and well tolerated as the current vaccines.

• Chemicals sector: MOS was downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital saying the recovery in phosphates could stretch into mid-2027 as assets remain idle for longer and delayed spending pushes out cash generation, and sees downside risk to Mosaic's 2027 consensus estimates. NTR said it will indefinitely shut its Trinidad Nitrogen operations at the Point Lisas facility after a review of strategic alternatives, citing ongoing Natural gas supply constraints and uncertainty in the Country.
• Papers & Packaging: OI shares hit 52-week lows after UBS downgraded shares to Neutral with a Street-low $6 price target from $11, seeing a challenging near-term outlook with Europe "the main issue" after H1 2026 EBIT in Europe plunged to $6M from $158M in the year-earlier period. O-I Glass  is being severely affected by the spike in energy costs due to the Iran conflict, as the company faced competitiveness in Europe, two furnace outages, and lower cost savings targets that limit upside.
• Metals & Mining sector: gold and silver prices were mixed on the day impacting miners, but industrial metals such as steel producers CLF, STLD, NUE and aluminum producers AA, CENX were all up 5% or more in a notable move for the group.

• ONDS initiated at Outperform and $14 PT at Citizens, a dynamic player in the Autonomous systems category with a diversified platform spanning four high-growth submarkets, including: 1) Aerial Security 2) Precision Strike; 3) ISR & Persistent Intelligence; and 4) Autonomous Ground Systems.
• KTOS announced multiple contract awards totaling over $100 million to develop prototype mission applications and cyber capabilities providing space intelligence data in support of joint operations across the space and cyberspace domains.
• OSK subsidiary secured a second Direct Commercial Sales contract through its exclusive Moroccan distributor, Optimum Vehicle Logistics, LLC, to support the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces.
• RDW was awarded a follow-on contract by Axiom Space to develop and deliver two Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) wings for the second module of Axiom Station. Redwire is also developing ROSA wings for the station’s first module, which is expected to launch in 2028.
• SPCX shares rise to best levels since June after Morgan Stanley said the rocket and satellite company offered an "unusually cheap" way to play the growing space and artificial intelligence economy, reiterating an overweight rating and a $300 price target.

• GFS was downgraded to Neutral at BNP Paribas and cut tgt to $51 from $80 saying they remain optimistic on growth plan and capability to diversity into higher margin Optical, satcom, and Automotive power applications, but believes these will be more gradual than current projections.
• Foxconn reported a 47% y/y surge in Q3 revenue, beating estimates on strong AI demand; said Q3 revs were T$3.03T ($95.4B), well above estimate of T$2.83 trillion; reported September revenue of $1.16T, up 38.42% year-on-year.
• INTC shares fell after Elon Musk signaled that TSM is in talks to help run his chip venture, Terafab. Elon Musk stated on X that TSMC and Terafab are in discussions, though he noted that TSM could supplement rather than replace Intel’s role.
• NVTS and MCHP collaborate to deliver 800v reference Design for next-generation Ai data Centers.
• QCOM and Huawei agreed to a multi-year patent licensing deal covering 5G, computing, AI, and networking technologies. The agreement includes cross-licenses to their respective patent portfolios, while Qualcomm will also acquire certain Huawei U.S. patents covering computing, AI, networking, and other technologies, subject to regulatory approvals.

• EMS Sector: FLEX shares rose after saying it plans to spin off its cloud and power infrastructure segment Axiom into a publicly traded company in Q1 2027; secures a $2 billion investment in Axiom, valuing it at $37.5 billion, led by General Catalyst and Koch Equity Development

Street Recommendations

Monday, October 5, 2026

• QURE Barclays downgraded uniQure to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $28, down from $60. The firm sees increased uncertainty around for AMT-130 in Huntington's disease following the 48-month data. The update raises questions around interpretability and relatability, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• JPM BofA lowered the firm's price target on JPMorgan to $400 from $420 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
• WFC BofA lowered the firm's price target on Wells Fargo to $100 from $102 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
• MS BofA analyst Ebrahim Poonawala lowered the firm's price target on Morgan Stanley to $225 from $250 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
• GS BofA lowered the firm's price target on Goldman Sachs to $1,050 from $1,300 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
• C BofA analyst Ebrahim Poonawala lowered the firm's price target on Citi to $160 from $176 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its Q3 EPS estimates for the GSIB banks up by 0.8% on average, and reduced its price targets for the group down by about 8% on average, citing lower multiples.
• WLK BofA analyst Matthew DeYoe lowered the firm's price target on Westlake to $75 from $90 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after taking down Q3 and 2026 EBITDA forecasts for Westlake, citing headwinds to PEM with PVC export prices falling, higher EU natural gas costs, and maintenance losses at the new Wilhelmshaven facility.
• OLN BofA lowered the firm's price target on Olin to $16 from $19 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares after taking down Q3 and 2026 EBITDA estimates. The firm now expects a more pronounced seasonality with headwinds coming from chlorine, lower caustic volumes, and added maintenance costs that were pushed to Q4, the analyst tells investors.

• KYMR Citi analyst Geoff Meacham raised the firm's price target on Kymera Therapeutics to $150 from $135 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees an attractive setup for the shares into Kymera's KT-621 readout in atopic dermatitis, expected by the end of 2026. KT-621 offers a "potentially differentiated" oral profile, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• FCX Citi raised the firm's price target on Freeport-McMoRan to $84 from $66 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the company's updated guidance. Citi believes Freeport's Grasberg restart is progressing well. The firm cites its bullish medium-term copper outlook for the target boost.
• EW Citi opened an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on Edwards Lifesciences while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $110 price target. Citi expects the company's two trial readouts at the November 2 Transcatheter Cardiovascular Therapeutics conference to be positive, expanding its total addressable market.
• BSX Citi lowered the firm's price target on Boston Scientific to $48 from $50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Citi also opened a "downside 90-day catalyst watch" on Boston Scientific. The firm believes the company will report "messy" Q3 results given the cyberattack.
• NKTR Citi views the 60% selloff in shares of Nektar since the April highs as an "attractive buying opportunity." There has been no negative news that impacts rezpegaldesleukin's clinical or commercial outlook in atopic dermatitis or alopecia areata, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes Netkar's current valuation "meaningfully discounts the potential blockbuster opportunity" for rezpegaldesleukin. It keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a $151 price target.

• TXRH Evercore ISI upgraded Texas Roadhouse to Outperform from In Line with a price target of $200, down from $220. The "temporary pressure" on the company's sales creates a buying opportunity, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm cites the stock's recent 25% pullback for the upgrade. While other casual dining stocks have pulled back, Texas Roadhouse's selloff has "been amplified by an unfortunate hoax that spread on social media channels," contends Evercore. The firm sees an "inevitable return" to 2%-ply's traffic growth as the key stock catalyst.

• PNC Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on PNC Financial to $250 from $281 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Large-cap banks enter Q3 earnings with solid revenue and credit fundamentals but more normalized capital-markets activity, continued NII support from loan growth and fixed-rate repricing offset by higher deposit costs, and moderating capital returns, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MCD Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort lowered the firm's price target on McDonald's to $250 from $290 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after lowering the firm's EPS estimates to incorporate softer than expected same-store sales in the U.S. market, decelerating global unit growth and capital reinvestments.
• GMAB Guggenheim analyst Michael Schmidt raised the firm's price target on Genmab to $54 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock remains the analyst's top pick based on "high conviction" in the company's late-stage R&D pipeline, including epcoritamab, petosemtamab, and Rina-S to potentially "unlock" $8B in incremental near-term pipeline sales, the analyst tells investors.

• VIRT JPMorgan upgraded Virtu Financial to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $84, up from $61. The company is well positioned to grow, driven by product innovation and earnings growth in equity and trading capital, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan sees potential for industry product innovation to increase Virtu's legacy product profitability as hedging and risk management opportunities increase. Current estimates for Virtu could be too low, contends JPMorgan.
• PGR JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Progressive to $250 from $241 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares ahead of the Q3 report. While excess margins in personal lines suggest potential margin deterioration, the personal lines insurers "are reasonably valued on through the cycle combined ratios," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MRK JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Merck to $165 from $150 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the Q3 report on October 29. The firm anticipates "no major surprises" in the results and sees the focus of Merck's story remaining on the pipeline. JPMorgan anticipates strong data for both sac-TMT in lung cancer and intismeran autogene in melanoma, and expects the shares to continue to perform well into the data.

• NUE KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Nucor to $286 from $288 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Nucor remains compelling given persistently rising sheet pricing and the company's continued market share wins from imports. Given its refreshed pricing deck, the historically tight domestic supply situation, meaningful year-over-year volume growth, and rich plate mix at Brandenburg, Nucor is trading at 7.0-7.5-times EV/EBITDA on the firm's 2027, a softer multiple entry point vs. most of this year.
• RS KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Reliance to $421 from $418 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that recent business wins on the border wall and defense combined with improving nonferrous pass-through dynamics "could leave us nicely ahead" of the Q3 EPS guidance range, while aerospace and semis mix are gradually recovering off the lows.

• AN Morgan Stanley analyst Daniela Haigian last night downgraded AutoNation to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $175, down from $250. The auto dealer group is facing negative earnings revisions, higher interest rates and oil prices, and "structural regulatory and technological overhangs," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 and fiscal 2027 earnings estimates for the group on softer volumes and expects Street estimates to move lower as Q3 results come through. It believes AutoNation's earnings resilience will be challenged in the near-term.
• GPI Morgan Stanley last night downgraded Group 1 Automotive to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $232, down from $300. The auto dealer group is facing negative earnings revisions, higher interest rates and oil prices, and "structural regulatory and technological overhangs," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 and fiscal 2027 earnings estimates for the group on softer volumes and expects Street estimates to move lower as Q3 results come through. It believes Group 1's execution risk increases in an uncertain industry backdrop.
• ABG Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Asbury Automotive to $184 from $230 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The auto dealer group is facing negative earnings revisions, higher interest rates and oil prices, and "structural regulatory and technological overhangs," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 and fiscal 2027 earnings estimates for the group on softer volumes and expects Street estimates to move lower as Q3 results come through.
• LAD Morgan Stanley analyst Daniela Haigian lowered the firm's price target on Lithia & Driveway to $310 from $358 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The auto dealer group is facing negative earnings revisions, higher interest rates and oil prices, and "structural regulatory and technological overhangs," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 and fiscal 2027 earnings estimates for the group on softer volumes and expects Street estimates to move lower as Q3 results come through.
• SAH Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Sonic Automotive to $57 from $72 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The auto dealer group is facing negative earnings revisions, higher interest rates and oil prices, and "structural regulatory and technological overhangs," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 and fiscal 2027 earnings estimates for the group on softer volumes and expects Street estimates to move lower as Q3 results come through.
• LRCX Morgan Stanley analyst Shane Brett raised the firm's price target on Lam Research to $385 from $367 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm, which is "more confident than ever" on the durability of Lam's leading logic share gain, expects a "solid" December quarter beat and raised its system shipment growth forecasts to 50% in calendar year 2026 and 47% in calendar 2027.

• ZETA RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on Zeta Global to $40 from $31 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after hosting a non-deal roadshow where investors focused on strategic partnerships and traction with Athena. The management remains positive on the momentum and long-term impact of both these trends, the firm believes they are not included materially in guidance and are not in the company's 2030 outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Zeta has distinguished itself from ad-tech peers towards a software peer group, RBC added.
• NAMS RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on NewAmsterdam Pharma to $42 from $50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm's proprietary work finds considerable risk at the Phase III Prevail study interim analysis, largely driven by potentially too few MACE-3 events, estimating a 35% to 38% probability of success, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds that its reduced price target reflects both its caution on the interim analysis and the more negative investor sentiment.
• ILMN RBC Capital analyst Dan Leonard raised the firm's price target on Illumina to $310 from $230 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes that its price target increase reflects the multiple re-rating of the Illumina ecosystem due to clinical sales inflection and positive catalysts. llumina's multiple is also receiving a modest lift from Tools companies being newly recast as AI beneficiaries, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CG RBC Capital analyst Bart Dziarski lowered the firm's price target on Carlyle to $48 from $58 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q3 results in Alternative Investment stocks. Weak Q3 performance in the company's larger public holdings will likely result in net accrued interest carry declining as its net accrued carry balance is 17% of market cap - highest amongst peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• INCY Stifel analyst Stephen Willey raised the firm's price target on Incyte to $157 from $145 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after having hosted a series of investor meetings with CEO Bill Meury and VP of IR Alexis Smith ahead of multiple year-end data catalysts anticipated from the late-stage pipeline at both ESMO and ASH.
• LITE Stifel raised the firm's price target on Lumentum to $1,232 from $1,100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Into the September-quarter reporting season, the firm continues to view AI infrastructure deployment as supply-gated, not demand-gated, TD

• ICE TD Cowen downgraded IntercontinentalExchange to Hold from Buy with a $166 price target.
• CBOE TD Cowen upgraded Cboe Global Markets to Buy from Hold with an increased price target of $334 price target. The recent 25-year S&P Global licensing renewal "sharply reduces" Cboe's "existential risk," the analyst tells investors in a research note. TD also views Cboe's key performance indicator binary contracts as a "powerful, emergent, new derivative class." The firm is bullish on the planned KPI binary options and sees a "significant growth runway."
• MRVI TD Cowen initiated coverage of Maravai Lifesciences with a Buy rating and $9 price target. The company's core CleanCap revenue growth is returning, but its larger, more undervalued opportunity lies in its non-COVID mRNA pipeline, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Maravai has a "leaner" cost base than consensus appreciates. And with "significant capacity on hand," the company's sales growth should drive "outsized earnings power," contends TD.

• MLM Truist lowered the firm's price target on Martin Marietta to $625 from $730 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Construction Materials names. The firm is citing higher diesel costs and limited ability to raise prices in 2026. Truist adds however, that materials companies will attempt notable price increases in 2027, and if energy prices fall, this could be a "very bullish combination".
• VMC Truist analyst Keith Hughes lowered the firm's price target on Vulcan Materials to $320 from $360 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Construction Materials names. The firm is citing higher diesel costs and limited ability to raise prices in 2026. Truist adds however, that materials companies will attempt notable price increases in 2027, and if energy prices fall, this could be a "very bullish combination".

• SPOT UBS lowered the firm's price target on Spotify to $675 from $690 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Spotify remains well positioned to make progress toward its financial targets, with differentiated product launches and new monetization opportunities supporting operating leverage despite higher platform-investment costs, while the potential launch of AI Remix by year-end or early 2027 represents a key catalyst as the company continues securing label agreements, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• VTRS UBS raised the firm's price target on Viatris to $26 from $23 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Viatris has outperformed year-to-date but retains further upside into YE26 and 2027, supported by catalysts including China, HRT, fast-acting meloxicam, and OPUS readouts, with the upcoming cenerimod Phase 3 readout significantly underappreciated and the HRT business offering meaningful multiyear topline growth potential, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• OI UBS analyst Joshua Spector downgraded O-I Glass to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $6, down from $11. Energy prices in Europe and stagnant volumes will likely overshadow cost savings gains in the near term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RACE UBS lowered the firm's price target on Ferrari to $450 from $490 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ferrari continues to stand out as a high-quality organic growth story, with dealer checks showing stronger customer inquiries and resale values supporting demand despite concerns around Ferrari Luce, while its brand strength, resilience, and earnings visibility remain differentiated, although the stock's premium valuation versus luxury peers is near historic highs, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• PECO Wells Fargo analyst James Feldman lowered the firm's price target on Phillips Edison to $41 from $43 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company will expand its Northwestern Mutual JV by contributing 13 stabilized grocer-anchored centers at a low-6% yield valued at $378M. Northwestern Mutual will own 86% and Phillips Edison 14% plus collect fees. Wells views this as a good way to monetize stabilized assets and recycle capital accretively, and notes higher interest rates on refis weigh on the upside to its model.
• CRH Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on CRH to $106 from $107 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Discussing the Building Materials sector, the firm says Q3 could be a clearing event, with well-known second half of the year weakness and likely 2026 guide cuts. Stocks could bounce as managements tout 2027 pricing, Wells adds. Any Iran resolution is the clearest catalyst, yet the firm remains cautious on public spending and housing headwinds.
• EXP Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Eagle Materials to $188 from $196 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Discussing the Building Materials sector, the firm says Q3 could be a clearing event, with well-known second half of the year weakness and likely 2026 guide cuts. Stocks could bounce as managements tout 2027 pricing, Wells adds. Any Iran resolution is the clearest catalyst, yet the firm remains cautious on public spending and housing headwinds.
• MLM Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Martin Marietta to $579 from $585 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Discussing the Building Materials sector, the firm says Q3 could be a clearing event, with well-known second half of the year weakness and likely 2026 guide cuts. Stocks could bounce as managements tout 2027 pricing, Wells adds. Any Iran resolution is the clearest catalyst, yet the firm remains cautious on public spending and housing headwinds.
• VMC Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Vulcan Materials to $249 from $254 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. Discussing the Building Materials sector, the firm says Q3 could be a clearing event, with well-known second half of the year weakness and likely 2026 guide cuts. Stocks could bounce as managements tout 2027 pricing, Wells adds. Any Iran resolution is the clearest catalyst, yet the firm remains cautious on public spending and housing headwinds.
• more cautious on 2027 GOV growth, at 18% vs. Street at 20%. The firm expects limited color on 2027 investment outlook.
• UBER Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Uber to $92 from $89 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm expects strong Q3 results with accelerating U.S. mobility volumes and healthy Q4 guide. Recent RIF offers opportunity to reinvest more aggressively. Wells views durable 2027 U.S. mobility trips growth as key for shares as Waymo scales global fleet.
• LYFT Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski lowered the firm's price target on Lyft to $17 from $19 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm believes risk to second half of 2026 consensus rides is known, while 10/1 insurance renewal provides potential margin upside. Wells sees potential risks associated with rising competitive intensity into year-end and scaling Waymo deployments in 2027 as providing challenging backdrop for shares.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 Employment Trends for September
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for September

• Earnings After the Close: None

• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advanced Goods Trade Balance for August
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AXIL NEOG PENG SAR STZ WS

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for August

• Earnings After the Close: APLD LEVI RELL RGP

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-yr notes

• Earnings After the Close: ODC

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE October crop report
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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