Early Look

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Just 12 hours after stock markets tumbled on rising interest rate hike expectations given the “hawkish” FOMC meeting on Wednesday, boosting Treasury yields across the board, U.S. futures are surging as Nasdaq futures +1.6% or 480 points to 30,480, erasing all of yesterday's declines and S&P futures are up near 1%. The signing of the interim US-Iran peace deal is overshadowing concerns about rising interest rates following yesterday's FOMC meeting commentary. The Fed's rate-setting stance skewed hawkish, the first meeting with new Chairman Kevin Warsh, pressuring US equities as the Dow fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 1.3%. The 2-Year Treasury yield spiked 16.9 bps Wednesday to end the day at 4.21% as the bond market is now pricing in 2 rate hikes this year (at the start of the year it was pricing in 2 rate cuts). The yen falls to its lowest levels since 2024 against the US dollar, raising Japanese BoJ intervention, just a few days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to highest levels in decades.

However, stock futures jump as President Trump and his Iranian counterpart on Wednesday signed the memo outlining their countries' peace agreement, a move previously expected on Friday. The deal went into effect on Thursday, potentially speeding up the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. Negotiations on more protracted issues, including Tehran's nuclear program, are expected to take place over the next 60 days. Oil prices dropped over 2% on the news, with Brent crude futures sinking below $78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate falling toward $74 a barrel.

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered a more hawkish-than-expected policy message and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the central bank's inflation-fighting stance. Treasury yields surged, the dollar rallied, and rate-cut hopes were pushed further into the future. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged again to another all-time highs, rising 1,151 points or 1.65% to 71,053, the Shanghai Index fell -17 points to 4,090, the Hang Seng Index declined -387 points to 23,924, and the Kospi closed at an all-time high rising around 3%. In Europe, the German DAX is up 22 points to 24,957, while the FTSE 100 is down -105 points to 10,402. Today will be the last day of trading for Wall Street stock markets, which will close on Friday to observe the Juneteenth holiday.

@Bluekurtic noted on X, “On Kevin Warsh 's first FOMC day as Fed Chair, S&P 500 fell 1.2%, extending the streak to four negative first fed meeting days for new Chairs. It marks only the third 1%+ decline on a first fed meeting day, and the largest drop since Greenspan in 1987.”

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -506.51 points, or 0.59%, to 51,493.16
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -354.69 points, or 1.34%, to 26,021.66
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -21.20 points, or 0.72% to 2,918.01

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.795M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for June…est. 10.0
• 10:00 AM ET                 Leading Index Change M/M for May…est. +0.1%
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC Flows for April

• Earnings After the Close: None

• The Swiss National Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday, saying its medium-term price outlook had barely changed despite a recent uptick in inflation stoked by higher fuel costs arising from the Iran war.

• Smith & Wesson (SWBI) Q4 EPS $0.36 and sales rose 26.7% y/y to $178.4M; Q4 Gross margin was 29.8% compared with 28.8% in the comparable quarter last year; handgun units >80% of shipments, sporting goods channel +23.2% YoY, new products 37.5% of revenue; said expects firearm industry demand in fiscal 2027 to be slightly higher than fiscal 2026.

• Enphase (ENPH) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight and raise tgt to $51 from $30 citing the company's emerging solid-state transformer data center opportunity for the upgrade, while Enphase continues to face residential solar headwinds in the near-term.
• HawkEye 360's (HAWK) Cluster 14 satellites have reached Full Operational Capacity, or FOC, adding new collection capability to the company's space-based signals intelligence constellation.
• Nucor (NUE) guides Q2 adj EPS $4.5-$4.6 per diluted share vs. est. $4.27 and earnings to increase across all segments versus Q1; steel mills segment to benefit from $130M cash refunds in Q2 2026; Q2 2026 guidance includes $61M non-cash benefit from Helion investment
• Safe Bulkers (SB) Q1 26 Rev $74.4Mm vs. est. $65.5Mm (beat); adj EPS $0.18 vs est $0.11; adj EBITDA $40.7Mm vs est $34.15Mm; TCE $17,095/day; div $0.06/share common (payable July 16)

• Large U.S. banks on Thursday will formally pitch the central bank on tweaks to a Federal Reserve proposal aimed at reducing the funds they must set aside to absorb potential losses, as the central bank enters the last leg of a marathon overhaul of U.S. capital rules.

• Kardigan (KARD) 25M share IPO priced at $16.00 as the deal size was increased to 25.0M from 23.3M shares and priced at high end of $14.00-$16.00 range.
• Legend Biotech (LEGN) 7.7M share Spot Secondary priced at $29.35.
• Pfizer (PFE) said that finance chief Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on August 15 to take a role in the consumer goods industry. Pfizer named Cecile Guegan, senior vice president of finance for its global biopharmaceutical business, as interim CFO, effective August 16.

• Apple (AAPL) is preparing a second-generation iPhone Air for spring 2027 and current prototypes now in advanced testing add a second rear camera for ultrawide-angle photography, Bloomberg reported saying Apple also is working to improve the battery life, according to the report.
• Accenture (ACN) Q3 EPS $3.80 vs consensus $3.71; Q3 revs $18.7B vs. est. $18.74B; narrows FY26 adjusted EPS view to $13.78-$13.90 from $13.65-$13.90 (est. $13.85) as now expects full-year revenue growth to be 3% to 4% in local currency; now expects revenue growth to be 4% to 5% in local currency. Prior view was full-year revenue growth of 3% to 5% in local currency. ACN will buy a majority stake in Dragos and fully acquire runZero and NetRise in a combined deal valued at $4.18B.
• AXT Inc. (AXTI) disclosed that its subsidiary Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology entered into a long-term supply agreement with Nanjing Casela Technologies; AXT's Tongmei secures $25.4M long-term indium phosphide wafer supply agreement
• Bell Canada (BCE), Cohere, Hypertec and BUZZ High Performance Computing (HPC), a subsidiary of Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE) announced a major AI infrastructure deal, marking a significant step forward in the development and deployment of advanced AI workloads on sovereign Canadian infrastructure.
• Intel Corp. (INTC) shares jump after President Trump said Thursday in a post on Truth Social that Apple (AAPL) had agreed to partner with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the United States." Intel had reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips for Apple, following negotiations that lasted more than a year, the Wall Street Journal reported in May.
• Sk Hynix said it has shipped samples ‌of its latest high-bandwidth memory (HBM) ​chips to major customers. The next-generation 12-layer HBM4E ⁠chip reaches speeds of up to 16 gigabits per ​second per ​pin ​and offers over ‌20% better power efficiency than previous models, the company said.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Stock market strength remains astounding, with every dip continuing to be bought, erasing all of yesterday's declines as the signing of the interim US-Iran peace deal on Wednesday overshadows concerns about rising interest rates following yesterday's FOMC meeting commentary. Stock markets slumped on Wednesday, ending near the lows after the U.S. FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75 as expected, but Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) skewed decidedly hawkish. The median FOMC interest rate forecast for 2026 was upwardly revised to 3.75% (from 3.375%), driven by 9 out of 18 members projecting further tightening ahead, including six who anticipate a 50-bps hike. However, futures jumped overnight and held gains this morning following news that Washington and Tehran have electronically signed an interim accord. The deal, which extends the active Middle East ceasefire by granting key financial concessions to Iran, allowed both countries to spin a domestic victory and provided a major geopolitical sigh of relief for risk assets. Oil prices are lower, while the dollar and short term yields rise.

While stock market strength remains broad based, there is no question that the daily surge in semiconductor stocks (SOX) is doing the bulk of leading in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with the PHLX Semi Index (SOX) trading at new all-time highs rising 5.4% around 14,200 as semis continue to lead the charge, up about 100% this year. At the same time, the brief rebound in software names last month is all but gone (IGV), down across the board today with the rotation into semis continuing. Even Mag 7 names have been lagging with MSFT, AMZN, META among names failing to rally with the Nasdaq. Energy stocks have been tumbling (XLE -7% this month) on the decline in oil prices.

The US dollar surges as EUR/USD hit a 2-1/2-month low of 1.1460 in early NY, it traded down -0.34, while the Japanese yen falls to lowest levels since 2024 vs the greenback, raising fears about potential BoJ intervention just days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. US/Iran sign agreement to end conflict and reopen Strait of Hormuz; deal entered into force following remote signing by Trump and Iranian leadership, with delegations set to meet in Switzerland on Friday for nuclear talks. June FOMC was clearly hawkish: 9 policymakers projected hikes in '26 & inflation forecasts were marked up significantly. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh leaned hawkish too, emphasizing restoration of price stability.

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% in June, judging it would be premature to raise rates now given the unclear strength of increased inflation pressures. The Central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, after external member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill in calling for a quarter-point rate rise. Also today, the Swiss National Bank left its Benchmark interest rate unchanged, saying its medium-term price outlook had barely changed despite a recent uptick in inflation stoked by higher fuel costs from the Iran war.

Wall Street is bracing for the largest options expiration event in history on Thursday, June 18, with approximately $8.3 trillion in U.S. options exposure set to roll off in a single session, 18% above the previous record of roughly $7.1 trillion set in December 2025. The event carries an unusual wrinkle: what would normally be a third-Friday triple witching has been shifted one day earlier because U.S. markets will be closed Friday, June 19, for the Juneteenth federal holiday.  

• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 226,000 from 230,000 and in-line with consensus 225,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 223,250 from 219,250 prior week (previous 219,000); continued claims climbed to 1.810M from 1.786M prior and above consensus 1.795M.

• Semi equipment: the sector continues to see new all-time highs for likes of AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, MKSI and others in recent days/weeks. B Riley said today they sees a multi-year Memory Cycle beginning, with AMAT Systems demand tracking above its modeled ICHR levels, and believe revenue could rise over 2x, to ~$1.8B+ in CY28E from $0.850B in CY24. GM expansion looks increasingly structural. Near-term catalysts are MU's 6/24 print, Samsung's early-July preliminary Q226, and late-July Sk Hynix/Samsung updates.
• In Brokers & Exchanges: CME was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette saying the recent selloff in shares creates an extremely attractive risk/reward, attributing the pullback to perceived perpetual futures risk. KBW says this is overblown in general for exchanges and CME specifically given the company's low retail exposure and index licenses in equities products. Separately, CME sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and its Chairman Michael Selig over the regulator allowing perpetual futures tied to the price of cryptocurrencies.

• HIVE +5%; as Bell Canada, Cohere, Hypertec and BUZZ High Performance Computing (HPC), a subsidiary of HIVE announced a major AI infrastructure deal, marking a significant step forward in the development and deployment of advanced AI workloads on sovereign Canadian infrastructure.
• INTC +7%; shares jump after President Trump said Thursday in a post on Truth Social that AAPL had agreed to partner with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the U.S." Intel had reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips for Apple, the WSJ reported in May.
• SWBI +20%; shares surged on better earnings results as Q4 sales rose 26.7% y/y to $178.4M on higher margins of 29.8% vs. 28.8% y/y saying new products were 37.5% of revs, w/sales growth driven by handgun shipments, accounted for more than 80% of total units shipped
• TTWO +4%; shares jumped after Rockstar Games noted on X, "Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers.”
• WPRT +8%; as announces that Cespira, its Joint venture with Volvo Group, and Volvo Group have signed a development agreement to finalize the integration and commercialization of Cespira’s HPDI™ fuel system technology to enable Volvo Group’s 13-litre Engine to run on hydrogen

• KR -6%; posted mixed Q1 results as adj EPS $1.58 misses est. $1.59 but revs $46.1B above the est. $45.45B as Identical Sales without fuel increased 1.0%; Reaffirms identical sales without fuel growth of 1.0% to 2.0%, adjusted FIFO operating profit of $5B to $5.2B, and adj EPS of $5.10-$5.30.
• NVCR -19%; after saying its cancer treatment for newly diagnosed brain tumors did not meet the main goal of a late-stage study.
• PFE -3%; said that finance chief Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on August 15 to take a role in the consumer goods industry. Pfizer named Cecile Guegan, senior vice president of finance for its global biopharmaceutical business, as interim CFO, effective August 16.
• SPCX -5%; after ending Wednesday down 5% -- the first time the rocket and artificial-intelligence company has closed in the red since its trading debut Friday.

Closing Recap

Thursday, June 18, 2026

What a difference a day makes yet again! After closing at the lows on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq falling over 1% and bonds tumbling/yields soaring after the Fed meeting commentary, stocks soared today, erasing all of those losses and finishing the abbreviated trading week on a strong note. The FOMC meeting had a “hawkish” tilt to future interest rate direction as the median FOMC interest rate forecast for 2026 was upwardly revised to 3.75% (from 3.375%), driven by 9 out of 18 members projecting further tightening ahead. Yet futures soared overnight, with investors buying the dip and extended gains after President Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed the memo outlining their countries' peace agreement, a move previously expected for Friday. The deal went into effect on Thursday, potentially speeding up the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. The news pushed oil prices lower and boosted sentiment heading into the three day holiday weekend, choosing not to focus on the Fed news yesterday indicating a rate hike was a real possibility this year.  The dollar hit a one year high, yields pulled back a bit from prior day spike and metals tumbled across the board. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Dow rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq rose 2.4%.

Heavily weighted Technology (XLK) and Semiconductors (SOX) remain market leaders for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and again so today. The broader Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (SOX) climbs as much as 6.5% above 14,350 to a fresh record high, with new records for INTC, and big advances for AMD, MRVL, ARM, standout memory names MU, SNDK, WDC again leading and equipment stocks AMAT, KLAC, ASML, LRCX and others all at or near record highs for this group. The SOX index is up about 12% this month and about 100% on the year. The XLK jumped 3% today, while flat on the month, but +33% YTD.

Weekly sentiment data: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -2.8% vs -17.3% last week. Bulls rise to 36.6% from 30.4%, Neutrals rise to 24.1% from 22%, Bears rise to 39.4% from 47.7%; 2) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index jumped to 92.83 from 79.27 last week (a reversal after two weeks of sharp declines), still down from the 98.39 level on 5-27, which was the highest since the 100.7 on 12-17-25 - the 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 is the 52 week hi - 2025 trough from 4-16-25 of 35.16 - Last Quarter Average (Q1) was 82.00 (down from 92.26 in Q4).

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% in June, saying it was premature to raise rates given the unclear strength of increased inflation pressures. The Central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, after external member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill in calling for a quarter-point rate rise. Also today, the Swiss National Bank left its Benchmark interest rate unchanged, saying its medium-term price outlook had barely changed despite a recent uptick in inflation stoked by higher fuel costs from the Iran war.

• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 226,000 from 230,000 and in-line with consensus 225,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 223,250 from 219,250 prior week (previous 219,000); continued claims climbed to 1.810M from 1.786M prior and above consensus 1.795M.

• Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran on Wednesday, ahead of the previous schedule of Friday. The 14-point framework calls for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz -- which normally carries around a fifth of the world's daily oil traffic -- after Washington lifts its blockade on Iran's ports and sanctions on Iran's oil sales.
• Lower oil prices did not help precious metals prices however, as August gold declined -$135.50, or -3.09%, to settle at $4,245.90 an ounce and July Silver fell -$4.45, or -6.29%, at $66.32 an ounce as metals traders focused more on higher rate fears after the FOMC.  

• The US dollar has jumped the last few days and moreso the last 24 hours after the FOMC rate news, as the buck surged late day up 0.58% at 161.58 as the yen sinks to lowest levels vs. greenback since July 2024. The move comes despite a Bank of Japan rate hike early this week to the highest in over 30 years at 1%, in line with expectations, accelerating policy normalization started in 2024. This was the BOJ’s first hike since December, when it raised rates to its current level of 0.75%.

• Specialty retail: gun maker SWBI shares surged on better earnings results as Q4 sales rose 26.7% y/y to $178.4M on higher margins of 29.8% vs. 28.8% y/y saying new products were 37.5% of revs, w/sales growth driven by handgun shipments, accounted for more than 80% of total units shipped
• Travel & Leisure: a good week of returns for airlines (AAL, DAL, ALK, UAL) and cruise lines (CCL, VIK, RCL, NCLH), helped by the sharp pullback in oil prices as the US/Iran sign MOU on deal with details slowly emerging the last few days.
• Auto related sector: WPRT shares jumped after announces that Cespira, its Joint venture with Volvo Group, and Volvo Group have signed a development agreement to finalize the integration and commercialization of Cespira’s HPDI™ fuel system technology to enable Volvo Group’s 13-litre Engine to run on hydrogen

• In Solar: ENPH was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays and raise tgt to $51 from $30 citing the company's emerging solid-state transformer data center opportunity for the upgrade, while Enphase continues to face residential solar headwinds in the near-term; saw strength in other solar related plays like SHLS, RUN, SEDG as well.
• In Nuclear/Utility: In power stocks (CEG, NRG, TLN), shares surged after key US regulator FERC signaled Thursday it would fast-track how data centers can secure connections to electric grids as demand for AI infrastructure accelerates. Under proposed orders that are expected to be approved, grids would have to demonstrate that they are working to speed connections if data centers bring their own power or curtail demand during times of high stress. They’ll also need to ensure data centers bear a larger share of the costs associated with upgrading the transmission system.
• Also saw shares of small modular names SMR, OKLO, NNE also rising in reaction. Nuclear reactor developer FISN priced its 2.5M share IPO at the low-end of the latest marketed range of $16-$18, raising $40M, and well below the originally planned price range of $24-$26.

• Financial Services: FDS was downgraded to Sell at Redburn saying despite a sharp derating, the firm continues to see risks to the downside, with terminals accounting for c51% of revenue and a further c25% linked to aggregated, nonproprietary data. Redburn upgraded VRSK to Hold from Sell saying Verisk has continued to derate sharply, reaching its historic lows prior to the disposals of Verisk Financial and Wood Mackenzie and says Ai disruption is reflected in the valuation. INTU was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel as expects management to lower its near/medium growth targets for both TurboTax and GBS with Q4 results/Sept analyst day as the company.
• In Banks: JEF was downgraded to Hold from Buy at UBS saying with shares up +19% M/M and +50% Q/Q (vs peers +2% / +11%) UBS believes a 13x blended 27E P/E valuation appropriately reflects elevated advisory and ECM expectations. Separately, Large U.S. banks on Thursday will formally pitch the central bank on tweaks to a Federal Reserve proposal aimed at reducing the funds they must set aside to absorb potential losses, as the central bank enters the last leg of a marathon overhaul of U.S. capital rules.
• Crypto sector: just can’t maintain a bounce, as Bitcoin prices fell over 2%, paring gains for the week down around $62,400 this afternoon and dragging names like MSTR down near 52-week lows; COIN, IBIT, also notable weakness.
• In Insurance: ALL announces that May estimated catastrophe losses of $289M or $228M after-tax and announces April and May total catastrophe losses of $1.16B or $915M after-tax

• BIIB agreed to acquire private biotechnology company RayThera for up to $1B as the transaction will include an upfront payment to RayThera shareholders, along with additional payments tied to clinical and regulatory milestones. RayThera's portfolio includes several anti-inflammatory drug candidates, with its lead program expected to enter Phase 1 clinical trials in early third quarter.
• PFE said that finance chief Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on August 15 to take a role in the consumer goods industry. Pfizer named Cecile Guegan, senior vice president of finance for its global biopharmaceutical business, as interim CFO, effective August 16.

• In Defense/Drones: ONDS agreed to acquire Cyberhawk in a transaction valued at approximately $125M, with about 95% of the purchase price funded in cash. Cyberhawk expects more than $45M in revenue for FY2027, generates approximately 95% recurring revenue, and has a $95M backlog. Defense contractors LMT, GD, NOC, RTX declined on day/week after President Trump signed an interim deal to end their nearly four-month-long war.
• Transports: Freight Waves noted on X, "Weekly U.S. Rail traffic data just dropped, and it's confirming significant strength in the industrial segment of the economy. Total traffic is up an amazing 7.2%, with carloads rising 3.2% year-to-date, despite declines in coal and flat forest products. This is a critical indicator of future Freight demand, including trucking, as manufacturers ramp up production." – shares of rails include UNP, CSX, NSC, CNI, CP.

• In Materials: in lithium sector, ALB was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup with $225 tgt saying recent share price weakness is due to continued pullback in spot prices since mid-May, which should be largely transitory given robust Battery production and resilient NEV Battery demand. They are skeptical that the lithium market will flip to a meaningful glut.

• INTC shares jumped after President Trump said Thursday in a post on Truth Social that AAPL had agreed to partner with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the U.S." Intel had reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips for Apple, the WSJ reported in May.
• MRVL tgt raised to $385 from $260 at Keybanc and maintain Overweight after recently hosted management meetings saying they left incrementally more constructive around the DC networking oppy, particularly around Scale Up SU; ($30B TAM by '30), where silicon Photonics and the acquisition of Celestial Ai will help MRVL differentiate.
• MU price tgt raised to $1,500 at Stifel as the firm is increasing its estimates significantly above consensus ahead of earnings next week, to reflect another big, upward shift in Ai-driven demand; it now models a ~2x better DRAM Asp/Gb (ex-HBM) than implied by MU's initial outlook.
• Bloomberg reported this morning that AMZN is exploring selling its custom AI chips for deployment in third-party data centers, marking a broader push to expand beyond internal cloud use and compete more directly with NVDA.
• Sk Hynix said it has shipped samples ‌of its latest high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips to major customers. The next-generation 12-layer HBM4E ⁠chip reaches speeds of up to 16 gigabits per second per pin and offers over ‌20% better power efficiency than previous models, the company said
• TSEM, in partnership with MRVL, has shipped over five million coherent photonic integrated circuits to Marvell global customers, delivering advanced, high-performance photonics solutions to address the growing bandwidth and efficiency demands of AI-driven data center interconnect (DCI) networks.
• Semi equipment: the sector continues to see new all-time highs for likes of AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, MKSI and others in recent days/weeks. B Riley said today they sees a multi-year Memory Cycle beginning, with AMAT Systems demand tracking above its modeled ICHR levels, and believe revenue could rise over 2x, to ~$1.8B+ in CY28E from $0.850B in CY24. GM expansion looks increasingly structural. Near-term catalysts are MU's 6/24 print, Samsung's early-July preliminary Q226, and late-July Sk Hynix/Samsung updates.

• IT Services & Consulting: ACN shares tumbled after posting mixed Q3 results revised its growth expectations lower; Q3 EPS of $3.80 topped the $3.71 estimate but revs of $18.7B just missed ests $18.8B while tweaked its fiscal-year outlook lower for the 2^nd time this year, to 3%-4% revenue growth in local currency, down from March's forecast of 4%-6%; the co did raise the low end of its year EPS Outlook to $13.78 from $13.65. Recall Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares this past Monday noting that massive investments in AI were draining resources away from information technology services (shares of CTSH, IBM, INFY, WIT fell in sympathy).
• In Media: RUM shares jumped after the video-sharing platform said it would change its name and tweak its business structure as part of an Ai pivot; says its new name will be RUM Group, effective June 18, after closing its acquisition of German Ai Cloud company Northern Data. RUM Group will oversee two business units: Rumble and Quake Ai
• Software sector: in Cybersecurity, ACN said it will buy a majority stake in Dragos and fully acquire cybersecurity firms runZero and NetRise in a combined deal valued at $4.18B as strengthens industrial OT security and attack surface tools. In gaming software, TTWO shares jumped after Rockstar Games noted on X, "Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers.”
• Quantum sector: QBTS is unveiling what it says could be the first error-aware gate-model quantum computing simulator.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• JBL Barclays raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $426 from $304 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's fiscal Q3 results beat estimates and fiscal 2026 outlook moved higher given intelligent infrastructure strength in Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Jabil has a strong AI outlook for fiscal 2027.
• ENPH Barclays analyst Christine Cho upgraded Enphase Energy to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $51, up from $30. The firm cites the company's "emerging" solid-state transformer data center opportunity for the upgrade. While Enphase continues to face residential solar headwinds in the near-term, the company's solid-state transformer initiative represents a "credible" entry into the evolving data center power stack, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays says the company opened up a $2B annual total addressable market. Enphase's early traction should support multiple expansion despite limited financial contribution until 2028, contends the firm.
• KMX Barclays raised the firm's price target on CarMax to $37 from $31 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company's Q1 earnings beat was likely driven more by market conditions than operational improvements, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm is "encouraged" by the steps CarMax is taking to right-size the business. It believes the company's focus on improving operations could limit its growth in fiscal 2027.
• QURE Barclays upgraded uniQure to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $65 price target.

• STLD BofA lowered the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $280 from $285 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm trimmed its Q2 adjusted EPS view to $3.66 from $4.46 and 2026 EPS forecast to $17.00 from $17.92 to reflect the company's guidance update.
• PGR BofA analyst Joshua Shanker lowered the firm's price target on Progressive to $313 from $331 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported May results. The firm's 2028 margin-normalized EPS forecast is down to $16.60 from $17.08 previously due to a higher tax rate, the analyst noted.
• DEO BofA analyst Andrea Pistacchi lowered the firm's price target on Diageo to $99 from $104 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of Diageo hosting its Capital Markets Day meeting on August 6. Progress will likely take time and FY27 is likely to represent a transition year, but the firm believes early signs of improved execution in U.S. or simply a moderation in share losses should be sufficient to support sentiment, the analyst tells investors.
• SSL BofA lowered the firm's price target on Sasol to ZAR 200 from ZAR 222 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. BofA's commodity team has cut its 2026 and 2027 Brent forecasts driven by a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, notes the analyst, who cut the firm's FY27 EBITDA estimate for Sasol by about 20%.

• NOV Citi raised the firm's price target on NOV Inc. to $22 from $20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm believes the equipment oilfield services sector will improve in 2027 as active deepwater rig count returns to its previous peak of 135 in 2028. Citi expects offshore production equipment order growth next year.
• OII Citi analyst Scott Gruber raised the firm's price target on Oceaneering to $40 from $35 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm believes the equipment oilfield services sector will improve in 2027 as active deepwater rig count returns to its previous peak of 135 in 2028. Citi expects offshore production equipment order growth next year.
• FTI Citi raised the firm's price target on TechnipFMC to $80 from $76 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes the equipment oilfield services sector will improve in 2027 as active deepwater rig count returns to its previous peak of 135 in 2028. Citi expects offshore production equipment order growth next year.
• ALB Citi analyst Patrick Cunningham upgraded Albemarle to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $225. The company will benefit from "structural lithium demand tailwinds," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes Albemarle's growth opportunities are being underappreciated at current share levels. It is skeptical that the lithium market will "flip to a meaningful glut."
• COST Citi resumed coverage of Costco with a Neutral rating and $1,020 price target. The firm sees Costco as market share gainer over the long term but views the stock's risk/reward as balanced at current share levels.

• CAG Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers lowered the firm's price target on Conagra Brands to $12 from $14 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm reduced fiscal 2027 estimates ahead of Conagra's earnings report to reflect ongoing cost headwinds and "lackluster" consumption trends in scanned channels. Conagra will utilize its recent CEO-transition as an opportunity to rebase earnings, remove the current overhang around capital allocation by resetting its dividend payout lower, and make more aggressive reinvestments to grow the sales, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• JBL Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $482 from $384 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Jabil delivered a strong quarter with results modestly above expectations and guidance implying upside from accelerating AI-related revenue growth and expanding margins through FY27, reinforcing confidence in its positioning across secular growth markets despite muted initial stock reaction due to elevated expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• QURE Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter raised the firm's price target on uniQure to $46 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Shares moved sharply higher after the company announced plans to pursue accelerated approval for AMT-130 in Huntington's disease following FDA feedback supporting use of three-year Phase 1/2 data as the primary basis for filing, materially advancing the expected approval timeline while shifting focus to confirmatory study alignment, upcoming four-year durability data, and eventual regulatory review outcomes, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• DT Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Martino raised the firm's price target on Dynatrace to $50 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following management discussions that addressed concerns around slower Q4 net new annual recurring revenue growth and ambitious FY27 guidance, the firm's confidence in Dynatrace's FY27 outlook has improved as management attributed recent softness largely to Europe while outlining multiple drivers that support a credible path to reaccelerating growth with potential upside as the year progresses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• TRGP Jefferies initiated coverage of Targa Resources with a Buy rating and $314 price target. The firm has conviction that Targa will sustain its premium growth through FY30, noting that consensus is yet to underwrite the full potential, particularly in FY29 and FY30. The premium growth profile is more durable than the Street's expectation, argues the analyst, who sees "clear upside to consensus estimates" in FY28 and beyond.
• VLRS Jefferies analyst Alejandro Anibal Demichelis initiated coverage of Volaris with a Hold rating and $10 price target. The U.S. and Iran conflict de-escalation has improved the near term sector outlook for Latin American airlines, says the analyst, who still sees a case for traffic decelerating due to sluggish economic growth in Latin America. In the mid-term, however, the firm sees the sector being supported by increasing air travel penetration and more rational competition, the analyst added.
• CPA Jefferies initiated coverage of Copa Holdings with a Buy rating and $185 price target. The U.S. and Iran conflict de-escalation has improved the near term sector outlook for Latin American airlines, says the analyst, who still sees a case for traffic decelerating due to sluggish economic growth in Latin America. In the mid-term, however, the firm sees the sector being supported by increasing air travel penetration and more rational competition, the analyst added.

• MRVL KeyBanc analyst John Vinh raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $385 from $260 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm recently hosted investor meetings with Marvell and left more constructive around the DC networking opportunity, particularly around Scale Up, where silicon photonics and the acquisition of Celestial AI will help the company differentiate. Given the arch shifts in DC, KeyBanc views networking should increasingly be a focus for investors, as it views it as more durable vs. custom XPUs, where despite line of sight to $10B by FY29, the sustainability appears less clear long-term.

• DUK Mizuho analyst Anthony Crowdell lowered the firm's price target on Duke Energy to $135 from $139 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Despite near-term regulatory "noise," Mizuho remains confident in Duke's ability to execute, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm continues to monitor North Carolina SB 730, which would block coal retirements until a 1,000 megawatt nuclear certificate of public convenience and necessity is issued.

• TSN Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery lowered the firm's price target on Tyson Foods to $78 from $80 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says chicken continues to perform very well, more than offsetting incremental packer margin pressure in Beef, which was worse than expected in May/June. Importantly, New World Screwworm risk looks manageable for Tyson, Piper argues.

• JKHY RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Jack Henry to $173 from $180 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes that its prior bullish thesis driving its December upgrade is correctly playing out as the company had 43 new core deals year-to-date vs. 28 at the same point last year, as well as those wins being with larger institutions and with larger contract value, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds however that shares are "more dislocated than before", and the firm is cutting its price target given the continued re-rating in fintech.
• DHC RBC Capital analyst Michael Carroll raised the firm's price target on Diversified Healthcare Trust to $8 from $6 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company has made solid progress repositioning its in-place SHOP and is now more active pursuing revenue-generating projects, the analyst tells investors in a research note. This should drive healthy earnings growth over the next few years, the firm added.
• KMX RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on CarMax to $45 from $41 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company's Q1 results were "largely positive", and the management deserves credit for moving quickly to address price competitiveness, reconditioning cost/speed, and digital ease of use, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds it is encouraged by progress to date and customer response, though it would also like to see continued improvement beyond Q1.

• BXP As previously reported, Scotiabank upgraded BXP to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $70, up from $65. The leasing pace has been strong since the investor day last September, which will help improve FFO per share growth, says the analyst, who also views the relative valuation as attractive within the office REIT group.
• REXR Scotiabank upgraded Rexford Industrial to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $36, down from $38. The stock's valuation "has finally caught up to a challenged" funds from operations growth story in Southern California, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm now believes most of the downside is priced into Rexford shares. It believes the company is addressing the stock's valuation disconnect to private markets today with accretive buybacks while the market is "starting to find its bottom."
• EPRT As previously reported, Scotiabank upgraded Essential Properties Realty Trust to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $33, down from $34. The stocks "sits at an attractive entry point" relative to AFFO per share earnings growth potential versus REITs and a continued pull-back in valuation, the analyst tells investors. The higher earnings growth and peer-leading investment spread should also help Essential Properties better absorb the risk of higher rates, the analyst contends.

• MU Stifel raised the firm's price target on Micron to $1,500 from $550 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is increasing its estimates "significantly above consensus" to reflect another big, upward shift in AI-driven demand, noting that it now models a DRAM average selling price per gigabyte ex-HBM that is more than twice what was implied by Micron's initial outlook.
• SLB Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro raised the firm's price target on SLB to $64 from $61 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company provided a comprehensive overview of its deep Digital capabilities and key differentiators at its Digital Investor day event.
• PEB Stifel raised the firm's price target on Pebblebrook Hotel to $20.25 from $18 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after having hosted meetings with the management team. The firm expects shares to continue to work from here as lodging fundamentals remain strong, minimal new supply comes online, and its portfolio should outperform, the analyst tells investors.
• JBL Stifel raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $460 from $430 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company delivered a "beat-and-raise" quarterly report. The firm believes the multi-year setup has strengthened, benefited by diversified end-market improvements, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

• JBL UBS raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $430 from $380 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. A strong preliminary FY27 AI outlook is overshadowing a FY26 guide that was in-line with expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• NUE Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Nucor to $283 from $292 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2's $4.50-$4.60 EPS guide topped consensus at $4.21, but trailed Wells' $4.91 despite a $130M one time refund. The firm thinks intersegment eliminations hurt the quarter.
• STLD Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $291 from $293 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2's mid-quarter EPS guidance at $3.51-$3.55 missed FactSet consensus at $4.16 and its $4.43 as higher sheet costs squeezed its fabricated product segment margins. Wells trims estimates, but stays constructive on free cash flow optionality and upside to steel/aluminum margins.
• SWK Wells Fargo analyst Joseph O'Dea raised the firm's price target on Stanley Black & Decker to $90 from $80 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm spent yesterday with the company's CFO Pat Hallinan/IR Michael Wherley in Toronto. Tone was upbeat, in-line with Wells' CEO fireside last week.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: none

• Needham Boston Biotech Bus Tour, 6/22-6/23, in Boston, MA

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, June-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, June-flash
• 9:45AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, June-flash
• 10:00 AM ET                 Richmond Fed Index for June
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: FDX KBH WOR

• Northland June Growth Virtual Conference, 6/23 (virtual)

• 8:30 AM ET                   Current Account Balance for Q1
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for May
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: FUL MLKN MU TCOM WS

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q1 final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q1-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q1-final
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices Q1-final
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Prices Q1-final
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Income M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Durable Goods Orders for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transports for May
• 10:00 AM ET                 Dallas Fed PCE for May
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for June
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AOUT CGEH FDXF

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, June-final
• 10:00 AM Et                  University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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