Early Look

Friday, September 4, 2026

U.S. stock futures are flat to slightly higher, with decent gains for Nasdaq futures as the AI tech trade bounces, but overall S&P futures are quiet heading into the key nonfarm payrolls data report at 8:30 am et. Treasury yields are flat but remain at elevated highs while the dollar edges higher. Oil prices are down overnight but were on course to gain over 6% for the week (largest weekly rise since July) as the U.S. and Iran resumed military exchanges in their conflict, now in its seventh month, while U.S. diesel prices hit a record high. A rally in oil prices combined with a much steeper increase in fuel prices has pushed inflation and government borrowing costs higher around the world. In earnings last night, fairly busy with shares of AOUT, SWBI in retail and IOT, DOCU in tech rising on results while shares of LULU and OXM tumbled on guidance in retail and GWRE, ASAN, EGAN all fell in tech. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 805 points to 65,020, the Shanghai Index fell -11 points to 3,930, and the Hang Seng Index gained 437 points to 25,650. In Europe, the German DAX is up 63 points to 29,066, while the FTSE 100 is down slightly at 10,828. The dollar/Japanese yen chopped a little higher to 156 overnight after falling 1.83% yesterday, the biggest drop since intervention in July. Stocks surged Thursday after Fed governor Chris Waller remarked that he was leaning toward holding interest rates steady, prompting traders to pare bets that the Federal Reserve would raise rates in September. Markets now see a roughly 50-50 chance of the Fed moving to further restrict financial conditions, according to CME Group.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 623.57 points, or 1.18%, to 53,685.52
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 366.23 points, or 1.40%, to 26,584.06
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 15.11 points, or 0.51% to 2,968.27

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for August…est. 45K (prior +30K)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for August…est. 5K (prior 5K)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for August…est. 4.1% (prior 4.1%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings M/M for August…est. +0.3% (prior +0.1%)
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Retail sales in the Euro Area increased 0.6% in July of 2026 over the same month in the previous year. Retail sales in the Euro Area decreased 0.6% in July over the previous month.
• US retail diesel rose to a record as the widely used fuel climbed to a nationwide average of $5.85 a gallon at the pump on Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association. The advance pushed the price above the former peak set in June 2022.

• Lululemon (LULU) shares fall to 7-year lows; Q2 EPS $2.92 vs. consensus $1.79 and revs $2.42B vs. est. $2.46B; Q2 comparable sales decreased -9%, or -10% on a constant dollar basis. Americas comparable sales decreased 12%. International comparable sales decreased -3%, or -6% on a constant dollar basis; sees Q3 EPS $0.93-$0.98 below est. $2.48 and sees Q3 revenue $2.29B-$2.32B, below consensus $2.54B.
• Oxford Industries (OXM) shares fall; Q2 adj EPS $1.34 vs. est. $1.31; Q2 revs fell -2% y/y to $394M, but in-line with consensus; lowered full-year guidance due to softness at Lilly Pulitzer and macroeconomic pressures as sees 2026 net sales outlook to $1.43B-$1.47B from $1.48B-$1.51B and cuts FY26 adjusted EPS view to $1.60-$2.00 from $2.30-$2.70 (est. $2.47) while sees Q3 revs/EPS lower than consensus.
• Smith & Wesson (SWBI) Q1 adj. EPS $0.06 vs. $(0.06) est.; net sales $112.6Mm, up 32.3% YoY vs est $98.7Mm; gross margin 28.7%, up 280bps YoY, including a 260bps benefit from $2.9Mm of tariff refunds; adj. EBITDAS $13.8Mm, up from $7.4Mm vs est $5.994Mm; Q2 sales expected roughly 10% above prior year vs est +6%; FY27 revenue growth guidance approximately 5%-7% vs est +5.2%.
• Torrid Holdings (CURV) Q2 EPS $0.05 vs. $(0.03) est.; net sales $231.7Mm vs. $238.1Mm est.; adj. EBITDA $23.3Mm vs. $17.2Mm est.; gross margin 38.7%; received $11.4Mm in IEEPA tariff benefits; Q3 net sales guidance $230Mm-$235Mm vs. $228.6Mm est.; FY26 net sales guidance $940Mm-$960Mm vs est $955.52Mm and CAPEX guidance $8Mm-$10Mm.

• Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP) Q3 EPS $0.09 vs. $0.08 est.; revenue $116.8Mm vs. $110.2Mm est.; adj. EBITDA $30.4Mm vs est $28.51Mm; gross margin 38.7%; quarterly cash dividend initiated at $0.13 per share; share repurchase plan expiration extended to November 30, 2028; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $425Mm-$435Mm vs. $421.1Mm est., adj. EBITDA guidance $103Mm-$108Mm vs est $103.56Mm.
• Dorian LPG (LPG) ordered three 90,000 cbm dual-fuel Panamax VLGC newbuildings from Hanwha Ocean for about $345 million. Deliveries scheduled for June, September, and December 2030, expanding the fleet with LPG-capable dual-fuel tonnage. Ships include shaft generators and efficiency upgrades aimed at reducing fuel consumption.
• Planet Labs (PL) Q2 adj EPS $0.02 vs. est. loss (-$0.02); Q2 revs rose 58% y/y to $116.1M, vs. consensus $104.22M; sees 3Q outlook for revenue of $101M-$105M missing the $114M estimate and sees Q3 outlook for adj EBITDA loss of $6M-$1M; guides FY revs $430M-$441M up from prior $415M-$440M vs. est. $435.8M.
• Quanex Building (NX) Q3 adj. EPS $0.79 vs. $0.66 est.; net sales $501.8Mm vs. $497.5Mm est.; adj. EBITDA $72.7Mm vs est $68.02Mm and adj. EBITDA margin 14.5%; free cash flow $47.8Mm.

• Fair Isaac (FICO) shares fall after U.S. Director of Federal Housing Bill Pulte said on Thursday he directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by the U.S. Congress to support the housing market, to approve all lenders to use credit scoring system VantageScore. "Fannie and Freddie's initial rollout of VantageScore has been incredibly successful, with 50 LENDERS DELIVERING LOANS. So, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, I'm instructing Fannie and Freddie to approve ALL lenders to use VantageScore," Pulte wrote on X. "FICO has enjoyed a monopoly. No more," Pulte added.
• Citigroup (C) could secure a license for its wholly owned China brokerage business as soon as this month, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter. The approval would allow the bank to expand its presence in China's securities market.
• AMC (AMC) CEO Aron calls on Robinhood (HOOD) to voluntarily cease and desist the trading of AMC stock tokens.

• Anthropic is close to finalizing an expansion of its revolving credit facility to $15B, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Morgan Stanley (MS) is leading the financing, with Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Citigroup (C) also playing prominent roles.
• Apple (AAPL) has canceled plans for a large foldable MacBook and a separate mid-sized MacBook with an OLED display, according to research firm Omdia. The foldable model was expected to measure 16.1 to 18 inches when unfolded, while the OLED MacBook was planned at 14.4 to 16.1 inches. Apple's broader OLED expansion remains intact, with a 13.8-inch MacBook expected in 2029.
• Asana, Inc. (ASAN) Q2 EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.09; Q2 revs $216.4M vs. est. $214.2M; sees Q3 EPS $0.08 vs. est. $0.09 and revs $217M-$219M vs. est. $218.1M; affirms FY2027 Adj EPS guidance of $0.37 vs $0.37 est; Raises FY2027 sales guidance from $855M-$863.5M to $858.5M-$863.5M vs $860.895M est.
• Docusign (DOCU) Q2 adj EPS $1.16 vs est $1.09 on revs $875.7Mm vs est $867.43Mm, adj gr mgn 81.7%, FCF $295.8Mm; guides Q3 revs $868-890Mm vs est $888.56Mm; sees FY revs $3.50-3.51B vs est $3.497B.
• eGain (EGAN) shares fall; Q4 adj. EPS $0.08 vs. $0.03 est.; revenue $22.2Mm vs. $21.8Mm est.; Q1 FY27 revenue guidance $20.9Mm-$21.4Mm vs. $22.3Mm est. and adj. EPS guidance $0.05-$0.08 vs. $0.08 est.; FY27 revenue guidance $84.5Mm-$86.0Mm vs. $94.1Mm est.
• Flex (FLEX) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire EPC Power at a value of $4.4B, subject to customary adjustments. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of calendar 2026, at which time EPC Power is expected to become part of Flex's Cloud and Power Infrastructure segment.
• Guidewire Software (GWRE) shares fall; Q4 adj. EPS $0.99 vs. $0.94 est.; revenue $411.1Mm vs. $402.2Mm est.; Q1 FY27 revenue guidance $372Mm-$378Mm vs. $387.1Mm est. and adj. operating Income guidance $64Mm-$70Mm vs est $79.96Mm; FY27 revenue guidance $1.707B-$1.727B vs est $1.701B and adj. operating Income guidance $403Mm-$423Mm vs est $407.63Mm.
• Samsara Inc,. (IOT) Q2 adj EPS $0.20 vs. est. $0.16; Q2 revs rose 30% y/y to $508.4M vs. est. $483.3M; said for Q2, crossed $2.1B in ARR with 30% y/y growth for the third consecutive quarter; cited large-customer momentum; adoption of newer AI features rose more than 4x over two mos; raises FY27 EPS view to $0.76-$0.78 from prior $0.70-$0.72 (est. $0.71) and boosts FY revs to $2.043B-$2.047B from $2.005B-$2.013B.
• Trade Desk's (TTD) said it will lay off ~15% of its employees in Q3 2026; estimates cash restructuring charges of $39 mln-$51 mln for severance, benefits and related costs.
• UiPath Inc. (PATH) Q2 adj EPS $0.15, in-line with consensus on revs $410M vs. est. $397.85M; sees Q3 revenue $440M-$445M, vs consensus $441.17M and sees Q3 ARR $1.992B-$1.997B; raises FY27 revenue view to $1.789B-$1.794B from prior $1.776B-$1.781B (est. $1.78B); sees FY27 ARR $2.065B-$2.07B; announced a series of changes to its executive leadership team including CFO and COO.
• Zscaler (ZS) Q4 adj EPS $1.19 vs est $1.09, adj operating Income $218.4Mm vs est $207.37Mm on revs $898.2Mm vs est 877.36Mm; guides FY revs $3.908-3.938B vs est $3.899B and adj EPS $4.86-4.90 vs est $4.60.
• The Federal Communications Commission asked a federal court to dismiss Disney's (DIS) lawsuit challenging an early regulatory review of eight ABC television station licenses. The FCC said blocking the review would limit its ability to examine evidence in an ongoing investigation into allegations that Disney engaged in unlawful discrimination.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, September 04, 2026

U.S. stocks are slipping after a stronger-than-expected August jobs reading raises expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates later this month. August payrolls grew by 162,000 versus the consensus of 53,000, while July's previously reported job decline of -23,000 was revised to show a gain +21,000. Treasury yields and the dollar jumped in reaction to the job creation while the unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%. The data adds to expectations that the Fed could raise rates this month, although inflation gauges next week (CPI, PPI) will also be influential. Yields had been dropping before the data and sharply reversed course. The 30-year yield is at 5.24%, the 10-year at 4.77% (after topped 4.8% post data) and the two-year at 4.37% (after highs above 4.412 after data).

Big jump in Treasury yields following a much stronger-than-expected August jobs report (nonfarm jobs added +162K vs. est. +55K and private payrolls +127K vs. est. +45K) as the two-year U.S. Treasury yields last up 7.18 basis points at 4.406% and longer dated yields also edged higher. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, in line with expectations of 4.1%. July's job number was also revised up by +43,000 jobs and is now positive for the month. The spike in Treasury yields also boosted the dollar on the data and erased gains for the week in the precious metals sector with gold and silver sliding.

Artificial-intelligence stocks getting a boost as in a strong to start for semis (SOX, AMD, SNDK, NVDA), optical stocks (COHR, LITE, AAOI), and other AI related plays (ALAB, CBRS), while profit taking place in software (MNDY, NOW, SNOW, WDAY) after a mixed round of results overnight as ASAN, EGAN, GWRE, PATH and ZS all slide after earnings). Retailers pressured again as LULU and OXM tumble on weaker earnings/guidance. Oil prices dip, but are on course to gain over 6% for the week as the U.S. and Iran resumed military exchanges in their conflict, now in its seventh month, while U.S. diesel prices hit a record high. A rally in oil prices combined with a much steeper increase in fuel prices has pushed inflation and government borrowing costs higher around the world and intensified warnings that the global economy might be heading for a hard landing. Bitcoin tumbles after payrolls data suggests more-hawkish Fed policy.

• Rare Earth sector: shares of MP, UUUU, CCJ, USAR were higher early after Reuters reported some Chinese suppliers refuse to ship rare earths despite having export licenses. Rare earths on agenda of planning sessions ahead of Xi visit to Washington. Prices high, shortages remain for material used in defense, Semiconductors, Aerospace and energy.
• Crypto sector: it has been a good two week run for the industry, with Bitcoin surging back past $81K late yesterday and boosting the likes of COIN, MSTR, HOOD and Bitcoin miners RIOT, MARA, others. HOOD had its price tgt raised to $135 from $115 at Deutsche Bank today to reflect the recent acceleration in Robinhood Chain fee revenue. HOOD CFO Verma recently noted that monetization on Robinhood Chain from developers varies by transaction size but can be thought of as a few basis points on average, with approximately half of the economics shared with Arbitrum.
• Food sector: Your grocery Bill might just get a little more expensive. Global food prices, tracked by UN’s FAO Food Price Index, rose 1.9% in August to their highest level since December 2022. CALM was downgraded to Hold from Buy at StoneX as while it continues to expect egg market conditions to improve, it believes the slow pace of this improvement now coupled with elevated input costs will temper Cal-Maine’s earnings power, and dividend payments, into FY28.

• BBCP +16%; on earnings as Q3 EPS $0.09 vs. $0.08 est.; revenue $116.8Mm vs. $110.2Mm est.; adj. EBITDA $30.4Mm vs est $28.51Mm; gross margin 38.7%; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $425Mm-$435Mm vs. $421.1Mm est.
• IOT +8%; shares rose on results as Q2 EPS/revs topped consensus ($0.20/$508.4M vs. est. $0.16/$483.3M) as crossed $2.1B in ARR with 30% y/y growth for the third consecutive quarter and raised FY27 EPS view to $0.76-$0.78 from prior $0.70-$0.72and upped its rev outlook as well.
• SNDK +6%; broad strength in the AI/semiconductor sectors this morning (MU, SKHY, WDCetc.) amid a rotation into the space broadly while software stocks see profit taking.
• SWBI +4%; Q1 sales rose 32% y/y to $112M topping consensus $98.7M on better EPS and gross margin 28.7%, up 280bps YoY, including a 260bps benefit from $2.9Mm of tariff refunds and guided FY27 revenue growth guidance approximately 5%-7% vs est +5.2%.

• ASAN -15%; non-GAAP EPS of $0.10 (est. $0.09), a 10.1% operating margin (est. 9.0%), down from 11.5% q/q, on revs $216.4M (est. $214.2M), but disappointing gross margins of 87.2% (est. of 88.6%), RPO of $522M (est. $558M), while guidance below consensus for Q3 and roughly in line for year.
• FICO -16%; after U.S. Director of Federal Housing Bill Pulte said on Thursday he directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by the U.S. Congress to support the housing market, to approve all lenders to use credit scoring system VantageScore.
• GWRE -21%; posted a Q4 EPS and rev beat (rose 15% y/y to $411.1M vs. est. $402.5M), and ARR rose 19% to $1.24B (but down from the 22% rise last quarter) but guided Q1 revs $372M-$378M below consensus $387.1M.
• LULU -17%; cut its full-year sales guidance again and realized a much larger than expected decline in sales as China continues to disappoint (sales -4% y/y); now sees FY sales to fall by 5%-7% to a range of $10.35B-$10.50B from $11.0B-$11.50B initially, missing the $11.03B estimate.
• OXM -14%; lowered full-year guidance due to softness at Lilly Pulitzer and macroeconomic pressures as sees 2026 net sales outlook to $1.43B-$1.47B from $1.48B-$1.51B and cuts FY26 adjusted EPS view to $1.60-$2.00 from $2.30-$2.70.
• TRU -8%; shares fell along with rival credit rating agency EFX along with Experian overseas after FHFA Director Bill Pulte accused the three major credit reporting agencies of overcharging American consumers, stating the practice 'will end soon'.
• TSLA -5%; shares slipped as the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it has opened an audit into about 1,000 Tesla Cybercab vehicles, examining the process and technical data the EV maker relied on to claim compliance with federal vehicle safety standards.

Closing Recap

Friday, September 04, 2026

U.S. stocks finished lower on Friday as the August jobs report came in better than expected, raising expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates at their policy meeting in a few weeks. August payrolls grew by 162,000 versus the consensus of 53,000, while June and July were better than previously reported, too. June's report was revised up by 11,000 to 31,000. The change for July was revised up by 44,000 to 21,000, reversing a previously reported decline in jobs. Taken together, employment in the summer months was 55,000 higher than first reported. The jobs report boosted Treasury yields and the dollar, while gold, silver and Bitcoin prices eased after rallies this week on rate hike fears. S&P sector winners were Technology (XLK), Industrials (XLI) and Utilities (XLU), while Healthcare (XLV), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Communications (XLC) and Energy (XLE) were the day’s biggest losers. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%.

Reminder, the stock market is closed Monday for Labor Day, but a very busy week of potential market moving catalysts: A very quiet week of earnings with only a handful of note led by ORCL, ADBE in software with other noteworthy names CHWY, KR, AEO, AVAV and Macy’s (M). Huge week of Wall Street conferences with three Tech conferences (Bofa, GSSCO, and Citi), the Cantor and Wells Fargo Healthcare Conferences, Barclay's Global Consumer Conference and Jefferies Material/Industrial conference. Apple (AAPL) holds annual iPhone event on 9/9. The European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting held on Thursday 9/10. Lastly, key inflation data late week with the August PPI and CPI data points Thursday and Friday respectively. Meanwhile, midterms are just 8 weeks away! Bank America strategist Hartnett provided some market outlook Midterm Scenarios: 1) Dem Sweep (50% prob): Big risk-off (stocks -10%, $USD, yields down). Short financials & $USD, 2) GOP Sweep (10%): Risk-on green Light for Ai bubble, and 3) GOP Senate / Dem House (35%): Goldilocks gridlock."

Stats of the day: 1) @bluekurtic noted on X, “the VIX has stayed between 14 & 17 for 25 straight trading days—1 day shy of the May 15, 1992, record (26 days). If it holds through Tuesday, it’ll be the longest streak in that range since 1990!; 2) @Bluekurtic also notes on X, “The market is closed Monday for Labor Day. A reminder that the first trading day of Labor Day week hasn’t been kind to the S&P 500. Since 2017, $SPY has fallen on Day 1 every single year, while the full 4-day week finished positive just 3 of 9 times.”

Bank America noted that there is a 99% probability ECB hikes Sept 10th, 53% Fed hikes on 16th, 98% BoJ hikes 18th (per Bloomberg futures pricing); hikes coming as central banks try to restore credibility to ward off surge in bond yields (biggest threat to AI capex + K-shape consumer booms). Short-term interest-rate futures now imply about a 65% chance for a hike at the Fed's September 15 to 16 meeting, up from about 55% before the report.

• WTI crude oil prices rebounded off morning losses, ending the day higher by $0.18 or 0.2% to settle at $91.48 per barrel (off lows of $88.72) ending the week higher  by over 8% as the United States and Iran resumed military exchanges in the seventh month of their conflict, while U.S. diesel prices hit a record high. Brent crude futures gained $0.76 or 0.8% to end the day at $96.28 per barrel (off lows $93.15). The rally in oil prices combined with a much steeper increase in fuel prices has pushed inflation and government borrowing costs higher around the world. Average U.S. diesel prices hit record highs as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries increased supply disruptions. U.S. natural gas futures rose on Friday, posting their fourth straight weekly gain rising 2.1% today and 2.4% for the week settling at $2.975 per mln btus.

• U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday after a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report led investors to increase bets on tighter policy from the Federal Reserve.  The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was last up 2 bps at 4.78%. It was at 4.792% just after the report. Two-year yields, which are particularly sensitive to changes in monetary policy, led the rise and were last up 3.8 basis points at 4.37%. The initial wave of selling propelled the yield to a peak of 4.4246%, its highest since January 2025. The data followed relatively dovish remarks on Thursday from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said he was inclined to be patient on rate policy while watching to see if price pressures ease.

• Food sector: Your grocery Bill might just get a little more expensive. Global food prices, tracked by UN’s FAO Food Price Index, rose 1.9% in August to their highest level since December 2022. CALM was downgraded to Hold from Buy at StoneX as while it continues to expect egg market conditions to improve, it believes the slow pace of this improvement now coupled with elevated input costs will temper Cal-Maine’s earnings power, and dividend payments, into FY28.
• Sporting Goods/ammo sector: strength in earnings from both AOUT and SWBI, both rising on results as AOUT Q1 EPS/revs topped consensus while gross margins expanded to 53% from 46.7% y/y and raised its 2027 adj EBITDA guidance to $14.5Mm-$17.5Mm while maintained sales view. SWBI Q1 sales rose 32% y/y to $112M topping consensus $98.7M on better EPS and gross margin 28.7%, up 280bps YoY, including a 260bps benefit from $2.9Mm of tariff refunds and guided FY27 revenue growth guidance approximately 5%-7% vs est +5.2%.

• Defense sector: Satellite imagery firm PL raised its FY27 revenue forecast to $430M-$441M from prior range of $425M-$441M after better results which were driven by rising demand for satellite services and growing contract opportunities (posted Q2 revs $116.1M vs. est. $104M). U.S. State Dept: approved potential sale of Joint direct attack munitions continue range to Saudi Arabia for an estimated $5B.
• Rare Earth sector: shares of MP, UUUU, CCJ, USAR were higher early after Reuters reported some Chinese suppliers refuse to ship rare earths despite having export licenses. Rare earths on agenda of planning sessions ahead of Xi visit to Washington. Prices high, shortages remain for material used in defense, Semiconductors, Aerospace and energy.
• Distributor sector: FAST posted August 2026 net sales of $812,063, up 16.6% from $696,711; Daily sales rose 16.6% to $38,670, matching 21 business days year over year.; geographic daily sales growth: U.S. 15.5%, Canada/Mexico 20.7%, rest of world 28.4%; contract-customer daily sales increased 19%, outpacing 11% growth for non-contract customers.
• Tankers & Shipping stocks: continued surge in the space as DHT, GNK, FRO, GSL, LPG, NMM, SB, NAT all hitting 52-week highs on Friday.

• Business Servies; FICO shares fall after U.S. Director of Federal Housing Bill Pulte said on Thursday he directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by the U.S. Congress to support the housing market, to approve all lenders to use credit scoring system VantageScore. "Fannie and Freddie's initial rollout of VantageScore has been incredibly successful, with 50 LENDERS DELIVERING LOANS. So, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, I'm instructing Fannie and Freddie to approve ALL lenders to use VantageScore," Pulte wrote on X. "FICO has enjoyed a monopoly. No more," Pulte added. Title insurance stocks FAF, FNF, STC also slid after Bill Pulte said the FHFA also expanded Title Insurance pilots to make sure people save on Title Insurance. Separately, shares of BILL, INTU, HRB shares were active after a report in The Information stated that Anthropic is looking to build more billing, fraud detection and other financial infrastructure in-house and evaluating which payments-related services it can build itself rather than relying on outside providers, recent job postings show.
• Business software sector: GWRE shares tumbled even as the company surpassed quarterly estimates as expectations appear to have been higher; posted a Q4 EPS and rev beat (rose 15% y/y to $411.1M vs. est. $402.5M), and ARR rose 19% to $1.24B (but down from the 22% rise last quarter) and guided Q1 revs $372M-$378M below consensus $387.1M. DOCU delivered Q2 results that exceeded expectations and raised its FY27 ARR growth guide by 25bps to 8.75%; guides Q3 revs $868-890Mm vs est $888.56Mm; sees FY revs $3.50-3.51B vs est $3.497B.
• Crypto sector: it has been a good two week run for the industry, with Bitcoin surging back past $81K late yesterday and boosting the likes of COIN, MSTR, HOOD and Bitcoin miners RIOT, MARA, others. HOOD had its price tgt raised to $135 from $115 at Deutsche Bank today to reflect the recent acceleration in Robinhood Chain fee revenue. HOOD CFO Verma recently noted that monetization on Robinhood Chain from developers varies by transaction size but can be thought of as a few basis points on average, with approximately half of the economics shared with Arbitrum.

• AdTech sector: TTD said it will lay off ~15% of its employees in Q3 2026; estimates cash restructuring charges of $39 mln-$51 mln for severance, benefits and related costs.
• Hardware sector: IOT shares rose on results as Q2 EPS/revs topped consensus ($0.20/$508.4M vs. est. $0.16/$483.3M) as crossed $2.1B in ARR with 30% y/y growth for the third consecutive quarter and raised FY27 EPS view to $0.76-$0.78 from prior $0.70-$0.72and upped its rev outlook as well.
• EMS Sector: FLEX entered into a definitive agreement to acquire EPC Power at a value of $4.4B, subject to customary adjustments; transaction is expected to close in Q4 of calendar 2026.
• Semiconductors: very strong day overall for semis/AI trade, with a rotation back into the space and out of software with memory names like SNDK, MU, WDC, SKHY leading, but broader strength in semis; AMBA reported Q2 revenue/non-GAAP EPS of $108.1M/$0.18, in-line with guidance and consensus estimates while management announced agreements with Capgemini and Macnica, and guides Q3 sales $115M-$124M vs. est. $119.3M.

• Cybersecurity software sector: ZS shares slipped (after a 55% surge since April lows) after results and guidance as the company posted better results as Q4 revs and ARR both growing 25% y/y as total net new ARR was $246M, bringing total ARR to $3.8B; guides FY revs $3.908-3.938B vs est $3.899B.

Street Recommendations

Friday, September 4, 2026

• CPB Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Campbell's to $18 from $19 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company has joined a growing list of packaged food companies that are "increasingly making difficult decisions to deliver in the world as they find it, not as they wish it were," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TSN Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Tyson Foods to $75 from $78 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company cut its fiscal 2026 outlook with reductions in profitability in beef, chicken, and pork, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RARE Barclays analyst Eliana Merle lowered the firm's price target on Ultragenyx to $32 from $43 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm removed Angelman syndrome from Ultragenyx's model following the study miss. Barclays still sees value from the company's base business and believes the earnings selloff may be overdone.
• ZS Barclays raised the firm's price target on Zscaler to $200 from $192 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's organic net new annual recurring revenue growth accelerated to 17% in fiscal Q4, driving most of the beat this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• LULU Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman lowered the firm's price target on Lululemon to $115 from $145 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2 featured a top line and margin miss and another significant guide-down for FY26. The business is facing deteriorating traffic and product challenges, particularly in core categories and management's confidence seems weaker into the back half of the year, Bernstein adds.
• COST Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Costco to $1,144 from $1,194 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Despite headlines about high gas prices and consumer pressure, most U.S. Broadlines retailers in the firm's coverage managed to "beat & raise" in Q2. 2026 guidance were maintained or raised following a stronger-than-expected Q2 results, although companies continue to caution against a pressured consumer environment and elevated fuel and transportation costs.

• IOT BMO Capital analyst Daniel Jester raised the firm's price target on Samsara to $54 from $44 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Samsara reported strong Q2 results, with annualized recurring revenue growth again near 30%, consistent with the upside case in the firm's preview, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The breadth of strength across both core and emerging portions of Samsara portfolio remains encouraging as businesses with physical assets drive digital transformation and harness emerging AI use cases to optimize operations, particularly in the enterprise space, the firm added.

• PATH BofA analyst Brad Sills raised the firm's price target on UiPath to $15 from $13 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares following what the firm calls "mixed" fiscal Q2 results. The firm does not think the results resolve the key debate, which is whether AI is a tailwind that will result in meaningful ARR growth acceleration, but it updated its model for higher margin assumptions.
• AMBA BofA lowered the firm's price target on Ambarella to $70 from $96 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Ambarella raising their five-year serviceable available market, now expected to grow from $8.5B in FY27 to $22.9B by FY32, is "encouraging," but near-term demand is uncertain, says the analyst, who cites recent edge AI multiple compression for the firm's lowered target.
• PCG BofA raised the firm's price target on PG&E to $14 from $13 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the company's investor call to outline its next steps after California's legislative session failed to deliver meaningful wildfire reform. The firm raised its FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts to $1.79 and $1.95, reflecting the $2B 2027 capex cut to pay down debt.

• GWRE BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Guidewire to $220 from $230 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a great quarter but expectations were greater, given last quarter's forecast of annual recurring revenue growth of 22% or higher and the strength in the stock price intra-quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG adds it was looking forward to hearing more at the company's Investor Day next month about the momentum in Guidewire's newer products and how bookings should translate into annual recurring revenue growth in the out years.

• BLTE Canaccord analyst Whitney Ijem initiated coverage of Belite Bio with a Buy rating and $303 price target. The firm sees drivers for additional share upside over the near and longer term despite the rally since the initial public offering. Belite's lead drug is tinlarebant is designed to slow vision loss by reducing delivery of vitamin A to the eye, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says tinlarebant is the first therapeutic to show a statistically significant reduction in lesion growth for Stargardt. It models a 2027 U.S. launch and $6B in U.S. 2033 sales.

• CIEN Citi views the post-earnings selloff yesterday in shares of Ciena as a buying opportunity. The company's 2027 expectation for 30% growth year-over-year "is a floor that will move higher with increased supply," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi keeps a Buy rating on Ciena with a $658 price target.
• AVGO Citi raised the firm's price target on Broadcom to $515 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company increased its fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor outlook from to $115B from $100B, up 100% year-over-year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi upped the price target to reflect Broadcom's AI outlook.
• DOCU Citi raised the firm's price target on DocuSign to $72 from $54 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm reported a Q2 beat solid on larger customer expansion and intelligent agreement management momentum, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The raise to 2027 targets shows DocuSign's product cycle "may have some legs," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi wants to see the company's growth rates near double digits before recommending the shares.
• GWRE Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised the firm's price target on Guidewire to $181 from $137 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says the company's "strong" fiscal Q4 report is overshadowed by its "modest" fiscal 2027 annual recurring revenue outlook. Citi cites expanding software multiples for the target increase.

• LULU JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss lowered the firm's price target on Lululemon to $95 from $154 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported a Q2 revenue miss with an international downturn, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the company's Q3 earnings outlook is 60% below consensus.

• LULU Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton lowered the firm's price target on Lululemon to $83 from $93 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. An "outsized" guidance cut "lowered the bar meaningfully, but we don't think the reset is done," says the analyst, who adds that recent trends increase the firm's conviction that new management will adopt a "shrink to grow" strategy that will drive another leg of negative EPS revisions.
• IOT Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Samsara to $49 from $43 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Record large-customer adds, deeper multiproduct adoption, and 20%-plus emerging-product mix supported another quarter of 30% ARR growth, while near-term free cash flow pressure reflects growth investment, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note. The firm continues "looking for entry points," the analyst added.
• ORCL Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh raised the firm's price target on Oracle to $210 from $207 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm, which sees potential for GPUaaS to drive Cloud revenue towards the high end of the guide at up about 63% year-over-year and "bullish reads" from recent neocloud prints, sees a "tactically positive set up" into fiscal Q1 results, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• ZS Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Zscaler to $165 from $145 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The Q4 beat was bigger than expected, but despite this strength the company is remaining conservative on its outlook given new sales leadership and Agentic SecOps product to be released during fiscal Q1, the analyst tells investors.
• PCAR Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Paccar to $125 from $119 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm views Paccar as "a high quality and best in class way to play the NA Truck cycle," but thinks the market has already priced in a stronger recovery with shares already trading well above their historical range, the analyst tells investors.
• DOCU Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on DocuSign to $75 from $69 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. A Q2 beat and modest guidance raise show incremental IAM progress, but management still hasn't quantified pricing uplift or incrementality versus legacy eSignature migration, the analyst tells investors.

• OBT Piper Sandler assumed coverage of Orange County Bancorp with an Overweight rating and $44 price target given its superior profitability and organic balance sheet growth outlook. The firm believes Orange County Bancorp is a high-performing community bank positioned for further price to earnings expansion above peers, supported by top-quartile profitability and robust TBV growth. Over time, Piper thinks Orange County Bancorp's superior profitability, combined with lower future credit costs, should support a greater premium price to earnings multiple.
• ZS Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens raised the firm's price target on Zscaler to $175 from $160 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes Q4 results exceeded expectations across all key metrics, with both revenue and ARR ahead of consensus. Management also highlighted continued momentum across Security for AI, Zero Trust Everywhere and Z-flex, along with plans for a new Agentic SecOps to become a potential growth driver in the second half of 2027. However, 2027 guidance implies organic NNARR growth of only 6% year-over-year, with execution still dependent on the sales leadership transition and ramp of newer products, leaving growth durability as a key debate in Piper's view.
• ASAN Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Asana to $9 from $7 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company delivered a solid revenue midpoint beat of 1.1% and 1.2% of operating margin upside, but an implied guide down for the second half of the year on a $1.5M full-year midpoint raise vs. the $2.4M Q2 beat along with a roughly 120bps decline in gross margin quarter-over-quarter sparked an 11% afterhours selloff.
• DOCU Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens raised the firm's price target on DocuSign to $75 from $52 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2 results were solid, with continued traction in IAM, solid upmarket traction and a slight acceleration in current currency revenue growth all highlights. This strength helped give management the confidence to raise annual ARR growth by 25bps, now implying a 75bps acceleration vs. 2026. Piper thinks the story will continue to show steady execution and building IAM traction, but believes visibility into a more material inflection remains elusive.
• IOT Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Samsara to $46 from $40 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Shares are up by over 10% after-hours as Samsara reported Q2 results that saw NNARR accelerate and come in well-above expectations, coupled with a conservative guide that also was an above-average raise. The team is executing well up-market and in cross-selling Emerging Products on its installed base.

• AMBA Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg lowered the firm's price target on Ambarella to $90 from $106 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following what the firm calls a roughly in-line fiscal Q2 print. Management noted little memory-related revenue impact in Q2 and Q3, but continued uncertainty into Q4 tempers near-term visibility, says the analyst, who cites recent valuation compression in the semiconductor industry for the firm's lowered target.
• LULU Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Lululemon to $100 from $134 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm, which is "disappointed" to see another sharp downwards revision in revenue and EPS forecasts, believes shares deserve a valuation discount given challenging visibility, poor traffic trends, and new questions around China growth potential.

• ZGN UBS raised the firm's price target on Ermenegildo Zegna to $15.50 from $15.40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's fist half results provide further evidence that the brand's multi-year investment cycle is beginning to translate into stronger profitability, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TEVA UBS analyst Ashwani Verma raised the firm's price target on Teva to $48 from $42 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Phase 2 success in celiac as an "important milestone." Teva has historically been a generics company, but the "impressive" data is a key reason the stock warrants a significant premium to current multiple, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS sees a "catalyst-rich" 2027 for Teva.
• FIZZ UBS lowered the firm's price target on National Beverage to $32 from $33 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares ahead of the fiscal Q1 report on September 10. The firm attributes the stock's recent underperformance to volume trends deteriorating at the end of Q1 and a broader cost backdrop that remains pressured. National Beverage's fundamental trajectory has shown few signs of improvement, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LULU UBS analyst Jay Sole lowered the firm's price target on Lululemon to $106 from $120 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q2 report as "disappointing." The share selloff does not represent a good buying opportunity as there is "big" earnings downside over the next 12 months and also see little upside risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS sees a balanced risk/reward at current Lululemon share levels.

• PATH Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on UiPath to $15 from $13 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While UiPath delivered a solid Q2, beating revenue/operating income targets, implied second half of the year NNARR of about $130M is flat year-over-year. AI featured in 18/20 top deals, but still early in moving the needle, Wells adds. The firm believes thesis is largely unchanged as it awaits more durable top-line improvement.
• LULU Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Lululemon to $95 from $105 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Stay sidelined post Q2's miss/guide down. The magnitude of decline seen at Lululemon "feels jarring," with a 30% cut to second half of the year EPS and 2027 Street numbers that will likely go less than $8.00.
• DOCU Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin raised the firm's price target on DocuSign to $60 from $55 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes DocuSign's Q2 was "relatively down the middle." Wells expects investor questions around normalized growth rates, IAM uplift and FY28 trajectory will persist.
• IOT Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Samsara to $58 from $50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported a strong beat and raise with NNARR well above expectations, driven by large customer momentum and emerging products attach. Wells thinks results show Samsara's consistent execution and durable growth profile are deserving of a premium.
• ZS Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Zscaler to $215 from $210 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is encouraged by the company's "beat & raise," reflecting improved execution. Wells views free cash flow pressure as transitory and expects sustained execution across at least a few levers can drive estimates/shares higher.
• MRK Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Merck to $170 from $150 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says its survey of 22 specialists and 22 primary care physicians supports upside to total PCSK9 class and Lipfendra sales in 2029, along with peak Repatha sales. Based on the survey, Wells upped its peak Lipfendra sales estimate to over $5B from $3B, above the consensus estimate of a $4.5B peak. The respondents expect Repatha to have 43%-45% share in 2029, adds the firm. Wells sees Repatha sales of $5.9B-$6.2B versus the consensus of $5.3B.
• NCLH Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Norwegian Cruise Line to $20 from $22 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm came away impressed with Great Tides Water Park on Great Stirrup Cay. Wells' estimates for 2027 move slightly lower as it takes a more conservative approach to 2027 cadence.
• AMGN Wells Fargo analyst Mohit Bansal raised the firm's price target on Amgen to $435 from $400 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says its survey of 22 specialists and 22 primary care physicians supports upside to total PCSK9 class and Lipfendra sales in 2029, along with peak Repatha sales. Based on the survey, Wells upped its peak Lipfendra sales estimate to over $5B from $3B, above the consensus estimate of a $4.5B peak. The respondents expect Repatha to have 43%-45% share in 2029, adds the firm. Wells sees Repatha sales of $5.9B-$6.2B versus the consensus of $5.3B.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell 3-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AVO BRZE CASY GME INNV MIND TTAN YQ

• Citigroup 2026 TMT Conference, 9/8-9/10 in New York, NY
• DA Davidson 5th Annual Big Sky Technology Summit, 9/8-9/11, in Big Sky, MT
• Deutsche Bank 16th Annual Aviation Forum, 9/8-9/10 in New York
• Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, 9/8-9/11, in San Francisco, CA
• Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference, 9/8-9/10 in Everett, MA
• China CPI, PPI for August

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell 10-yr notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEO AVAV COO GLOO KEQU LAKE LMNR LSAK NAVN SKIL WLTH

• Bank America Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference, 9/9-9/10, in New York
• Bank America Gaming & Lodging Conference, 9/9-9/10
• Barclay’s Global Consumer Conference, 9/8-9/10, in Boston, MA
• Cantor Healthcare Conference, 9/9-9/11, in New York
• Citigroup 2026 TMT Conference, 9/8-9/10 in New York, NY
• Citigroup 2026 Biopharma Back to School Conference, 9/9-9/10, in New York, NY 
• DA Davidson 5th Annual Big Sky Technology Summit, 9/8-9/11, in Big Sky, MT
• Deutsche Bank 16th Annual Aviation Forum, 9/8-9/10 in New York
• Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, 9/8-9/11, in San Francisco, CA
• Jefferies Global Industrials & Materials Conference, 9/9-9/10 in New York
• Jefferies Renewables, Clean Energy, & Construction Conference, 9/9-9/11, in New York
• Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference, 9/8-9/10 in Everett, MA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for August
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for August
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for August
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for July
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell 30-yr notes

• Earnings After the Close: ADBE CPRT DSGX IBEX ORCL REF ZUMZ

• Bank America Gaming & Lodging Conference, 9/9-9/10
• Barclay’s Global Consumer Conference, 9/8-9/10, in Boston, MA
• B Riley Securities Consumer & TMT Conference, 9/10 in New York
• Benchmark TMT Conference, 9/10 in New York
• Cantor Healthcare Conference, 9/9-9/11, in New York
• Citigroup 2026 TMT Conference, 9/8-9/10 in New York, NY
• Citigroup 2026 Biopharma Back to School Conference, 9/9-9/10, in New York, NY 
• DA Davidson 5th Annual Big Sky Technology Summit, 9/8-9/11, in Big Sky, MT
• Deutsche Bank 16th Annual Aviation Forum, 9/8-9/10 in New York
• Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, 9/8-9/11, in San Francisco, CA
• Jefferies Global Industrials & Materials Conference, 9/9-9/10 in New York
• Jefferies Renewables, Clean Energy, & Construction Conference, 9/9-9/11, in New York
• JP Morgan Global macro Conference, 9/10, in New York
• Lake Street 10th Annual Best Ideas Growth Conference, 9/10 in New York
• Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference, 9/8-9/10 in Everett, MA
• Wolfe Research TMT Conference, 9/10 in San Francisco, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for August
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for August
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, Sept-prelim
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for August
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal Budget for August

• Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, 9/8-9/11

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