Early Look

Friday, May 8, 2026

Despite the United States and Iran clashing again late yesterday near the Strait of Hormuz, with US forces targeting missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran, U.S. futures are firmly in positive territory as nothing appears able to dent this resilient market that remains just off record highs. In futures, oil headed for a deep weekly loss as President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire with Iran still held despite renewed clashes between US and Iranian forces, sustaining speculation a deal may be struck. Oil prices jumped last night when the news was first reported but is now down on the morning. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -120 points to 62,713, the Shanghai Index was little changed at 4,179, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -232 points to 26,393. In Europe, the German DAX is down -225 points to 24,438, while the FTSE 100 is down -38 points to 10,238. With the bulk of earnings season now behind us after last nights deluge, attention turns this morning back to data with the monthly nonfarm payrolls report and then next week with key CPI and PPI inflation data. It has been nonstop winning for Wall Street, on track for its 6^th straight week of advances (following 5 straight weeks of losses prior in March) as Bank America data noted Investors flocked to cash and bonds last week and emerging market stocks saw their biggest outflows since January, according to Bank of America. The US had its sixth week of equity inflows at $9.3 billion, the firm said. Of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported thus far, 84% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed.

The rallying U.S. stock market will take its cues next week from fresh inflation and consumer spending data, developments in the war in Iran, and a high-stakes meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and China. U.S. equities have been on a tear, with the ‌benchmark S&P 500 up more than 15% from its low for the year, hit in late March. The strongest U.S. quarterly earnings season in more than ‌four years has lifted sentiment for equities, while worries about worst-case economic fallout from the Iran war have abated and investors are jumping in for fear of missing out on gains. Energy prices have soared in the wake of the Iran war, with U.S. crude up more than 60% for the year but has failed to dent global stock markets with many trading near their all-time best levels.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -313.62 points, or 0.63%, to 49,596.97
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -32.75 points, or 0.13%, to 25,806.20
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -47.15 points, or 1.63% to 2,839.63

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for April…est. 75K (prior +186K)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for April…est. 5K (prior +15k)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings M/M and Y/Y for April…est. +0.3% and +3.8% respectively
• 8:30 AM ET                     Unemployment Rate for April…est. 4.3%
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence for May, preliminary…49.5
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• The Nasdaq 100 Index on Thursday reached an “extreme” spread of 13% above its 50-day moving average while also touching a 52-week high, according to BTIG LLC. The last time that happened, other than in September 2020, was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

• DraftKings (DKNG) Q1 adj EPS $0.20 vs. est. $0.17; Q1 revs rose 17% y/ y to $1.65B vs. consensus $1.63B; Q1 Monthly Unique Payers (MUP) decreased 4% to 4.2M compared to the three months ended March 31, 2025; maintains FY26 revs $6.5B-$6.9B and adj Ebitda $700M-$900M.
• Expedia Inc. (EXPE) Q1 EPS of $1.96 vs. est. $1.38; Q1 revs $3.43B vs. est. $3.35B; Q1 booked room nights grew 6%, total gross bookings grew 13%, while B2B gross bookings grew 22% and B2C grew gross bookings 10%; announces new $5B buyback authorization; affirms year outlooks for revs and bookings.
• MercadoLibre (MELI) Q1 revs $8.8B vs. est. $8.3B; Q1 Ebit $857M vs. est. $931M; Q1 net profit of $417M, a 15.6% drop compared to year prior; Q1 GMV $19B, total payment volume $87.2B.
• Monster Beverage (MNST) Q1 EPS $0.58 vs. est. $0.53; Q1 revs rose 26.9% y/y to $2.35B above consensus $2.16B; did not provide specific financial guidance for the current quarter or full year; Q1 Net sales in the Monster Energy Drinks segment rose 27.6% y/y, driven by increased consumer demand.
• Toyota Motor (TM) said it expects the effects of the Iran war to cost it about $4.3 billion this financial year and reported an almost 50% drop in quarterly earnings while saying full-year profit is expected to fall by a fifth in the year just started, as rising costs from the war outweigh surging demand for hybrid vehicles.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Q1 adj EPS $1.25 tops consensus $1.18; Q1 revs 1$.86B vs. est. $1.83B; Q1 adj net income $129.7M vs. est. $131.6M; said Q1 Macau saw a meaningful increase in gaming volumes, Las Vegas Q1 revenue and EBITDAR at Wynn Palace rose sharply.

• Fluor (FLR) Q1 adj EPS $0.14 vs. est. $0.62 on revs $3.66B vs. consensus $3.89B; is narrowing its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 from $525M-$585M to $525-$560M as upper end of guidance reflects Q1 recognition of cost growth on a mining project in the Americas, and a temporary slowdown on another project due to Middle East.
• Forward Air (FWRD) shares plunge as Q1 revs fell -5% y/y to $582M missing the $620M consensus though Q1 net loss narrowed and operating income improved y/y; said to sell non-core assets after strategic review; major customer may transition business in 2027.
• MP Materials (MP) Q1 adj EPS $0.03 vs. consensus flat; Q1 revs $90.65M vs. est. $72.14M; said Q1 results were boosted by $42.3M in price protection agreement income from the U.S. government as part of a 2025 investment deal; expects Q2 NDPR rare earths prices to be in low to mid $90 per kilogram range.
• Olin Corp. (OLN) Q1 revs $1.58B vs. est. $1.6B; Q1 adj Ebitda $86.2M vs. est. $63.4M driven by cost actions and improved demand; posts Q1 net loss, citing higher raw material costs and lower pricing; forecasts Q2 adjusted EBITDA between $160M-$200M.
• Republic Service Group (RSG) Q1 EPS $1.70 tops consensus $1.64 and revs $4.11B, in-line with consensus $4.1B; Q1 adj net income $526M vs. est. $504.5M; said pricing and effective cost management drove solid earnings growth and 50 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion
• Rocket Labs (RKLB) Q1 revs rose 63.5% y/y to $200.35M vs. est. $190M; guides Q2 revs $225M-$240M vs. est. $201M; said record number of new launch and space systems contracts signed in Q1, including 31 Electron and HASTE contracts and five Neutron launches; posted Q1 net loss -$45M.
• Nuscale Power (SMR) Q1 revs $565K vs. est. $14.7M as net loss widened; said its Q1 rev decline due to the absence of revenue recognized from the RoPower technology license agreement and completed engineering services in the prior year; did not provide guidance.

• Coinbase (COIN) Q1 revenue fell 21% q/q to $756M as total crypto market capitalization and trading volumes dropped more than 20% q/q; Q1 adj EBITDA fell -46% q/q and posted net loss of -$394.1M vs. $65.6M profit y/y; sees Q2 transaction revenue of $565-$645M and subscription and services revenue approximately flat vs. Q1.
• Rocket Companies (RKT) Q1 adj EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.12; Q1 revs $2.82B vs. est. $2.79B; guides Q2 revs $2.7B-$2.9B vs. est. $2.97B; Q1 net income $297M and adj net income $422M.
• Toast Inc. (TOST) Q1 EPS $0.20 vs. est. $0.15; Q1 revs $1.63B, in-line with consensus $1.63B; Q1 Payment volumes flat y/y at 22% while Q1 net income more than doubled y/y to $126M; added about 7,000 net new locations in Q1; raises 2026 full-year non-GAAP subscription services and Fintech solutions gross profit outlook to $2.29B-$2.32B and boosts 2026 full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast to $790M-$810M
• XYZ Corp.(XYZ) Q1 adj EPS $0.85 vs. est. $0.68; Q1 revs $6.06B vs. consensus $6.03B; Q1 Cash App registered a 38% jump in gross profit in the quarter; sees FY26 adjusted EPS $3.85, consensus $3.64 and raises FY26 gross profit forecast to $12.33B, or +19% y/y and above prior view of $12.2B, while sees FY adj op income $3.34B.

• Guardant Health (GH) Q1 revs $301.7M vs. est. $279.2M and adj EPS loss (-$0.45) vs. est. loss (-$0.76); raised 2026 revenue guidance, citing strong oncology and screening growth and sees revs $1.3B-$1.32B from prior $1.25B-$1.28B and screening revs $186M-$198M from prior $162M-$174M on higher expenses.
• McKesson Corp. (MCK) Q4 EPS $11.69, tops consensus $11.57 on revs $96.3B, below consensus $101.4B; reaffirms long-term adjusted EPS growth target of 13% to 16% while targets long-term segment operating profit growth of 5%-8% for North American Pharmaceutical, 13%-16% for Oncology & Multispecialty.
• Natera Inc. (NTRA) Q1 revs rose 39% y/y to $696.6M vs. est. $617M; raises 2026 revenue guidance to $2.74B-42.82B from prior $2.62B-42.7B; expects 2026 gross margin of approximately 64% to 66%.

• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Q1 revs $151.1M vs. est. $157.1M; Q1 adj net income -$4.9M vs. est. -$3.84M; Q1 GAAP gross margin was 29.1%, compared with 30.6% y/y and 31.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Bill Holdings (BILL) says to cut up to 30% of workforce and sees $30M-$60M of charges in connection with the restructuring; announces $1M share repurchase authorization; Q3 adj EPS $0.68 vs. est. $0.55 on revs $406.6M vs. est. $403.3M; guides year EPS and revs above consensus.
• Cloudflare Inc. (NET) Q1 adj EPS $0.25 vs. est. $0.23; Q1 revs $639.8M vs. est. $622.61M; guides Q2 EPS $0.27, in line on revs $664M-$665M, vs. consensus $665.3M; raises FY26 EPS view to $1.19-$1.20 from $1.11-$1.12 (est. $1.12) and boosts FY26 revenue view to $2.805B-$2.813B from $2.785B-$2.795B, consensus $2.8B; cuts jobs.
• Coreweave Inc. (CRWV) Q1 GAAP revs $2.08B vs est. $1.96B; said believe well on way to more than 8 GW by 2030; Q1 adj op income $21M vs. est. $24.6M and adj net income -$589M vs. est. -$446M; Q1 backlog was $99.4B end of March; Q1 adj Ebitda margin 56%.
• HubSpot (HUBS) shares tumble over -20% after Q1 results beat at $2.73 vs. est. $2.47 on revs $881M vs. est. $863.3M; while guides FY26 revs $3.7B-$3.71B vs. est. $3.7B, with Bank America, Cantor and William Blair all downgrading shares this morning. Bank America noted the "biggest surprise" is that HubSpot is reorienting its go-to-market model to be agent-first, with reps now expected to position AI agents as "the tip of the spear" during sales conversations.
• Iren Ltd. (IREN) shares rise as Nvidia Corp (NVDA) to purchase up to 30M shares of ordinary stock at an exercise price of $70 per share, resulting in a right to invest up to $2.1B
• Taiwan Semi (TSM) posted its slowest pace of monthly revenue expansion since October as sales rose 17.5% to NT$410.7 billion ($13.1 billion), their smallest rise in about six months.
• Trade Desk (TTD) shares fell as Q1 adj EPS $0.28 misses est $0.32 on revs $689M vs. est. $679.2M; guides Q2 revs at least $750M vs. est. $771.3M saying advertisers turned more cautious with their budgets in an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, May 08, 2026

U.S. stocks soaring to new record highs just about daily over the last 2 weeks, helped by a very strong earnings season as of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported thus far, 84% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed. Adding fuel to the fire today a stronger jobs data, a positive for the economy with more jobs data and more weekly hours worked as the AI impact fears to jobs take a back seat today. April Nonfarm payrolls +115,000 (consensus +62,000) vs March upwardly revised figure of +185,000. After a small one day reprieve, semis back to tech leadership and mass outperformance over software (IGV) as the SOX rises 3% and IGV falls -2% behind HUBS results (the SOX Semi Index +9.4% on month and 5.3% on week). Another good week for major averages with the Nasdaq on track for a 4% rise, the S&P 500 2.2%, the Russell 2000 +1.3% and the Dow a modest rise. What can slow down this market?

While many TV pundits note the market rally has been broad based (which it has as Materials +13.5% YTD, Energy +24% and Industrials +12%), the biggest leaders in tech have pushed the XLK to +20% YTD and are mainly responsible for the mass jump in markets over the last 6 week winning streak. @KobeissiLetter noted on X, Alphabet, $GOOGL , Nvidia, $NVDA , Amazon, $AMZN , Broadcom, $AVGO , and Apple, $AAPL, have collectively accounted for ~50% of the S&P 500's total gains since April 1st. This means these 5 stocks have added ~6 percentage points to the +12% rally of the index over this period.” Memory stocks remain on fire as MU +9% on day topping $700 for the first time (up 36% in May and +147% YTD), and SNDK +7.5% on day (+31% in May and 507% this year) on surging memory prices for AI needs. Stocks look set to close at new highs (again) as President Trump’s statement that the Iran ceasefire is still holding despite headlines of some escalation late Thursday in the Strait of Hormuz, as a weekly loss for oil help futures regain positive momentum.

Regarding the Middle East, Iran said Thursday it is reviewing messages from the U.S. received via Pakistani mediators, but it has yet to reach a conclusion or deliver a reply, according to Iranian state media, citing an Iranian official. Axios and other news outlets reported earlier this week that the countries were nearing a 14-point memorandum of understanding to put an end to the war and resume talks around Iran’s nuclear program.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim May 48.2 (consensus 49.5) vs final April 49.8 as the current conditions index prelim May 47.8 (consensus 52.0) vs final April 52.5 and the consumers expectations index prelim May 48.5 (consensus 48.1) vs final April 48.1 and the
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim May 4.5% vs final April 4.7% and the survey of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim May 3.4% vs final April 3.5%
• March wholesale inventories revised to +1.3% vs. consensus +1.4% as U.S. March wholesale sales +2.8%; U.S. March wholesale sales +2.8% vs Feb +2.6%. U.S. March stock/sales ratio 1.21 months' worth vs Feb 1.23 months

• In Retailers: Wells Fargo said they are positive on apparel from the tailwind arising from expanding use of GLP-1 medications and the lift to overall clothing spend - it sees an annual 160bps, 170bps, and 30bps lift to apparel's LT ~3.0% CAGR over the next 3 years. The firm upgraded VSCO to Overweight and highlight them as a clear winner today, while leaning more positive URBN as well. In the other side, they are incrementally negative on footwear and athletic apparel saying footwear does not benefit from the size change associated with weight loss as they downgraded NKE (PT to $45 from $55) to Equal weight and DECK to Underweight (PT to $90 from $115).
• Online Travel/Lodging: EXPE Q1 results beat its estimates and Q2 guidance came in ahead of its prior expectations, but the company left FY26 guidance unchanged which weighed on shares; ABNB reported strong Q1 results, with GBV, revenue, and profitability all coming in ahead of consensus. Nights Booked was slightly above expectations and decelerated ~60 bps q/q, though growth would have accelerated if not for a ~100 bps impact from cancellations related to the Middle East conflict (raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to the "low- to mid-teens", compared with "at least low double-digits").
• Payments & FinTech: Outside of better results and guidance from XYZ overnight lifting shares, the sector seeing lots of weakness on results as FIS falls as Q1 results topped views but guided Q2 EPS $1.45-$1.49, missing the $1.50 consensus; AFRM was little changed after its mixed results; TOST shares fell despite strong Q1 results across key operating metrics, including higher-than-expected location additions, GPV growth, and SaaS annual recurring revenue per location and raised guidance as well.

• FLNC +35%; was upgraded to Buy from neutral at Roth and raise tgt to $26 from $13 after the co delivered FQ2 EBITDA modestly ahead of expectations despite a revenue miss, as GMs rebounded from FQ1 levels and reiterated FY'26 guidance while also signed MSAs with two hyperscalers.
• FROG +16%; reported strong Q1 results, as Cloud growth accelerated to 50% and handily beat expectations, accelerating 800bps QoQ, with Cloud now 51% of total revenue, provided encouraging commentary on pipeline strength, and raised FY26 guidance (+18.5% YoY at mid).
• IREN +8%; after the company announced NVDA to invest up to $2.1B as part of a broader AI partnership between the two firms, intended to accelerate deployment of large-scale AI factories; the deal gives NVDA a five-year right to buy up to 30 million IREN shares at $70 per share.
• MNST +13%; shares jumped on results as Q1 results beat as revs rose 26.9% Y/y to $2.35B above consensus $2.16B; did not provide specific financial guidance for the current quarter or full year; Q1 Net sales in the Monster Energy Drinks segment rose 27.6% Y/y, driven by increased consumer demand
• RKLB +23%; shares jumped as Q1 revs rose 63.5% y/y to $200.35M vs. est. $190M on better guide as sees Q2 revs $225M-$240M vs. est. $201M; said record number of new launch and space systems contracts signed in Q1, including 31 Electron and HASTE contracts and five Neutron launches

• CRWV -9%; beat 1Q26 expectations with active power now exceeding 1GW while 2Q revenue was below consensus, and management maintained full-year revenue, op. income, and capacity guides.
• EXPE -7%; Q1 results beat its estimates and Q2 guidance came in ahead of its prior expectations, but the company left FY26 guidance unchanged which weighed on shares.
• FLR -11%; shares fall on results as Q1 adj EPS $0.14 misses consensus $0.62 on revs $3.66B vs. consensus $3.89B; is narrowing its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 from $525M-$585M to $525-$560M as upper end of guidance reflects Q1 recognition of cost growth on a mining project in the Americas.
• FWRD -35%; tumbled after Q1 revs fell -5% y/y to $582M missing the $620M consensus though Q1 net loss narrowed and operating income improved y/y, while notably disclosed that $250mm of revenue from a very large customer is now at risk and announced plans to divest its Intermodal division.
• HUBS -21%; on guidance growth strategy; reported a quarterly beat and in-line guidance and its net-new ARR broke its streak of growing faster than the overall business; shares were downgraded by several analyst noting the path to growth reacceleration has become more uncertain.
• MELI -11%; as Q1 revs $8.8B vs. est. $8.3B; Q1 Ebit $857M vs. est. $931M; Q1 net profit of $417M, a 15.6% drop compared to year prior; Q1 GMV $19B, total payment volume $87.2B
• NET -22%; after better results and mixed guidance as they raised its full-year revenue guide by $19M to account for the higher 1Q revenue but implies a deceleration in revenue growth through the year (30% CY26 growth).
• TTD -4%; as Q1 adj EPS $0.28 misses est $0.32 on revs $689M vs. est. $679.2M; guides Q2 revs at least $750M vs. est. $771.3M saying advertisers turned more cautious with their budgets in an uncertain macroeconomic environment

Closing Recap

Friday, May 08, 2026

U.S. stock markets finish the day/week near highs in another straight up more from the opening bell, as the S&P 500 (SPX) officially topped 7,400 for the first time in history, now up over +17% since March 30^th and the S&P and Nasdaq post a 6^th straight week of gains amid maximum market bullishness on Ai demand growth boosting tech sectors leveraged to it (semis, optical, memory, data center), while software lags. It feels like maximum bullishness for Wall Street as every earnings beat, partnership, order related to the AI space sends tech stocks soaring daily as the semis (SOX) index added another 5% today (now up 65% in just four months after surging 40% in 2025), led by order or partner related headlines for INTC, AVGO (today alone), new highs for NVDA and strength in equipment names and of course memory/HDD stocks with MU, SNDK, WDC, STX which continue to be market leaders. Just truly astounding moves daily in tech land while broader S&P index is also buoyed by materials, industrials, and REITs (all up over 10% YTD), while healthcare and financials are both down over 6% YTD. This last leg higher the last few days certainly feels like FOMO buying as the biggest winners continue to surge.

Jobs numbers this week were strong, both the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday and today’s Nonfarm payroll report, pointing to continued labor market stability and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged for some time while monitoring the economic fallout from the war with Iran. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 185,000 advance in March, and well above the economists forecast of 62,000 jobs after a previously reported 178,000 rebound in March. Wages increased 3.6% in the 12 months through April after gaining 3.4% in March. There were some “red flags” however as more people worked part-time for economic reasons last month, with the number jumping by 445,000 to 4.9Mm and household employment declined but was partly offset by dropouts from the labor force, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%.

Next week’s attention turns to April’s inflation prints in the U.S. and China as well as high stakes talks between President Trump’s Beijing visit to see President Xi. The timing is at a crucial time amid the urgent push to de-escalate Middle East hostilities. The visit could be the most anticipated diplomatic event of the year, framed as a high-stakes deal-making session, albeit one with modest expectations. The backdrop of an ongoing energy crisis and the scheduled lapse of major trade frameworks in November instill significant uncertainty regarding the summit's outcomes. The most urgent priority is the Iran conflict and the impassable Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile economists expect the headline CPI to soften slightly to 0.8% YoY from 1.0% YoY previously, while the U.S. CPI report is next Wednesday and PPI on Thursday.

Interesting data points showed: Investors flocked to cash and bonds last week and emerging market stocks saw their biggest outflows since January, according to Bank of America. The US had its sixth week of equity inflows at $9.3 billion, BofA said. The Nasdaq 100 Index on Thursday reached an “extreme” spread of 13% above its 50-day moving average while also touching a 52-week high, according to BTIG LLC. The last time that happened, other than in September 2020, was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim May 48.2 (consensus 49.5) vs final April 49.8 as the current conditions index prelim May 47.8 (consensus 52.0) vs final April 52.5 and the consumers expectations index prelim May 48.5 (consensus 48.1) vs final April 48.1.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim May 4.5% vs final April 4.7% and the survey of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim May 3.4% vs final April 3.5%
• March wholesale inventories revised to +1.3% vs. consensus +1.4% as U.S. March wholesale sales +2.8%; U.S. March wholesale sales +2.8% vs Feb +2.6%. U.S. March stock/sales ratio 1.21 months' worth vs Feb 1.23 months

• In Restaurants: after falling the most since its IPO yesterday on earnings, SHAK was upgraded to Buy from Hold) at Stifel (while lower tgt to $85 from $105 as they believe the market has overreacted to disappointing Q1 earnings and soft April sales and stock is trading near 10-year valuation lows at ~12.5x updated NTM EBITDA. WEN reported a top and bottom line beat for Q1.
• Food & Beverages: MNST shares jumped on results as Q1 results beat as revs rose 26.9% Y/y to $2.35B above consensus $2.16B; did not provide specific financial guidance for the current quarter or full year; Q1 Net sales in the Monster Energy Drinks segment rose 27.6% Y/y, driven by increased consumer demand.

• In Leisure sector: PLNT was downgraded by both Bank America and TD Cowen after results saying while expected a difficult Q1 due to weather and heightened competition, the earnings reset came without a new multi-year framework. In theme parks, FUN was upgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $26 from $16 saying Q1 top/bottom line exceeded Street-high estimates into the print and it is raising its model for transitory attendance recapture opportunity in Q2/2H with building list of idiosyncratic “self-help” initiatives. PRKS was upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Mizuho noting shares are only up 2% YTD and down ~40% from the 2-year high achieved in late ’24 noting risk/reward skewed.

• Energy Equipment: FLNC was upgraded to Buy from neutral at Roth and raise tgt to $26 from $13 after the co delivered FQ2 EBITDA modestly ahead of expectations despite a revenue miss, as GMs rebounded from FQ1 levels and reiterated FY'26 guidance while also signed MSAs with two hyperscalers.

• In Crypto: COIN posts its second consecutive quarterly loss as trading momentum fades with Q1 EPS loss (-$1.49) vs. est. for profit of $0.27 and  Q1 revs fell 21% q/q to $756M as total crypto market cap and trading volumes dropped more than 20% q/q; Q1 adj EBITDA fell -46% q/q and posted net loss of -$394.1M vs. $65.6M profit Y/y.
• In Employment Services: UPWK was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord after the co reported mixed Q1 results, with softer GSV, in line revenue, and stronger profitability and said GSV trends were tracking in line with internal expectations through early February but softened materially later in the month and through early April.

• GILD slides on guidance as Q1 adj EPS $2.03 vs est. $1.91; Q1 revs $6.96B vs est. $6.91B; Q1 Veklury sales down 52% to $144M; now sees FY26 adjusted EPS ($1.05)-(65c) due to charges and financing costs related to recent acquisitions but raises overall sales guidance for year by $400M and ests on Yeztugo to $1B from $800M.
• MRNA shares posted big gains after Moderna tells Reuters it has conducted preclinical research on hantaviruses in collaboration with the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases; says research is in early stages. Moderna signed a research agreement in 2023 with Korea University to develop an mRNA-based vaccine for hantavirus partnered, under its mRNA Access Program.
• PTCT was upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen after results and raised tgt to $90 from $75 saying the co has made strong progress over the past several years in streamlining its focus, executing on favorable transactions, which has fortified the balance sheet, and delivering early on a new product launch.
• BHVN, SRPT, REPL, QURE among biotech names that spiked midday (as well as tobacco names MO, PM) after the WSJ reported President Trump has signed off on a plan to fire FDA Marty Makary, following a tumultuous period for the regulator that included clashes over vaping, abortion and drug policy,

• In E&C sector: FLR shares fall on results as Q1 adj EPS $0.14 misses consensus $0.62 on revs $3.66B vs. consensus $3.89B; is narrowing its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 from $525M-$585M to $525-$560M as upper end of guidance reflects Q1 recognition of cost growth on a mining project in the Americas.
• In Aerospace: RKLB shares jumped as Q1 revs rose 63.5% y/y to $200.35M vs. est. $190M on better guide as sees Q2 revs $225M-$240M vs. est. $201M; said record number of new launch and space systems contracts signed in Q1, including 31 Electron and HASTE contracts and five Neutron launches.
• In Metals, shares of gold and silver miners (AEM, B, CDE, HL, NEM, PAAS) saw weekly gains as gold prices posted a roughly 2.3% gain this week, best in over 5 weeks.

• In AI Data Center/Infrastructure sector: IREN shares jumped after the company announced NVDA to invest up to $2.1B as part of a broader AI partnership between the two firms, intended to accelerate deployment of large-scale AI factories; the deal gives NVDA a five-year right to buy up to 30 million IREN shares at $70 per share. CRWV beat 1Q26 expectations with active power now exceeding 1GW while 2Q revenue was below consensus, and management maintained full-year revenue, op. income, and capacity guides. DELL shares caught a big jump late day simply after President trump made a simple statement, “Go and buy a Dell” (just that kind of market).
• In Content Delivery: AKAM shares soared after results last night and news that a U.S. based frontier model provider commits $1.8B over seven years for cloud infrastructure services. NET shares tumbled after better results and mixed guidance as they raised its full-year revenue guide by $19M to account for the higher 1Q revenue but implies a deceleration in revenue growth through the year (30% CY26 growth).
• In Optical Sector: AAOI Q1 revs $151.1M vs. est. $157.1M; Q1 adj net Income -$4.9M vs. est. -$3.84M; Q1 GAAP gross margin was 29.1%, compared with 30.6% Y/y and 31.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025
• In AdTech: TTD shares stumbled as Q1 adj EPS $0.28 misses est $0.32 on revs $689M vs. est. $679.2M; guides Q2 revs at least $750M vs. est. $771.3M saying advertisers turned more cautious with their budgets in an uncertain macroeconomic environment (shares were downgraded at William Blair as believes competition has continued to be a challenge for the company and believes this growth profile will continue to be a concern for investors).
• IT Services & Consulting: EPAM downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs citing greater than expected headwinds in discretionary spending that are pressuring the company’s custom applications and broader services business.

• INTC shares soared…again…now up 33% in just a few days in May, getting a boost after the WSJ reported Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement for Intel to manufacture some of the chips that power Apple Device. Intensive talks between the two companies have been ongoing for more than a year, and they hammered out a formal deal in recent months, these people said. Bloomberg News first reported the talks Tuesday.
• AVGO also surges late day after Bloomberg reported APO and BX are among private credit lenders involved in talks with chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO) over a roughly $35B financing to fund the AI build-out.
• MCHP reported Mar-Q sales up 11% q/q and guided Jun-Q up 11% q/q, well above typical seasonality driven by broad-based strength, led by Aerospace and Defense (16% of F26 sales).
• SYNA posted strong FQ3 (Mar) results and FQ4 (Jun) guidance, which slightly exceeded expectations as upside in the quarter was attributed to Enterprise, while both Mobile and IOT missed expectations. Smartphone demand was negatively impacted by memory and declined -16% Y/y, while IOT despite the miss still grew 30% Y/y.
• TSM posted its slowest pace of monthly revenue expansion since October as sales rose 17.5% to NT$410.7 billion ($13.1 billion), their smallest rise in about six months.

Street Recommendations

Friday, May 8, 2026

• SHAK Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Shake Shack to $96 from $118 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views the post-earnings selloff as overdone.
• FUN Barclays raised the firm's price target on Six Flags to $26 from $22 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q1 report. Six Flags posted a "strong rebound" in performance indicators top-to-bottom and its compares get easier from here, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• HUBS BofA analyst Matt Bullock double downgraded HubSpot to Underperform from Buy with a price target of $180, down from $300. After last night's Q1 results and commentary, the analyst tells investors that the "biggest surprise" is that HubSpot is reorienting its go-to-market model to be agent-first, with reps now expected to position AI agents as "the tip of the spear" during sales conversations. While the firm views these moves as "strategically sound for the long-term," a concurrent change to both pricing and packaging and go-to-market focus introduces "significant execution risk," the analyst added.
• C BofA raised the firm's price target on Citi to $170 from $150 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The bank's investor day reinforces the firm's view that the stock should re-rate over the next two years as confidence builds in its improving competitive positioning, profitability, and growth outlook, the analyst tells investors.
• COIN BofA lowered the firm's price target on Coinbase to $218 from $234 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. An adjusted EPS miss was driven primarily by higher tech and development spending, softer trading, and non-operating Consumer volumes having declined 36% quarter-over-quarter amid depressed asset prices, the analyst tells investors. While near-term results remain tied to crypto prices, the firm is "encouraged" by the company's push to diversify into more durable revenue streams, including crypto-as-a-service, the analyst added.
• EXPE BofA raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $310 from $306 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. A room night miss was "a blemish on a good quarter," says the analyst, who raised the firm's 2026 revenue estimate by 3% and EBITDA forecast by 6% after the Q1 report.
• PGNY BofA raised the firm's price target on Progyny to $29 from $27 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after "a strong quarter" that come against a backdrop of labor market fears that have been an overhang on the multiple. The firm is raising its FY26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates to account for the Q1 outperformance and more stable utilization.

• CARG BTIG analyst Marvin Fong raised the firm's price target on CarGurus to $40 from $37 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered its 14th consecutive quarter of generating adjusted EBITDA above the midpoint of guidance while also modestly beating on revenue, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HWM BTIG raised the firm's price target on Howmet Aerospace to $300 from $275 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q1 results. Total spares sales grew 36% y/y to about $520M, accounting for 23% of total revenue, with commercial aerospace spares alone growing 48% y/y and according to management, spares volumes should continue to grow for 8-10 years, with the lion's share of growth coming in the first several years, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RL BTIG raised the firm's price target on Ralph Lauren to $450 from $435 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of its Q4 for results. Broad-based strength across regions, channels, and categories is expected, underpinned by robust full-price sell-through, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GENI BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Genius Sports to $9 from $10 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered upside to Q1 expectations on an organic basis with Betting Tech revenue also helped by contributions from afterhours market-makers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Away from the Betting Tech items, the early May closing of the Legend acquisition drove an increase in FY26 guidance to reflect eight months of contribution with no change in either organic or pro-forma expectations, the firm added.

• ATRA Canaccord upgraded Atara Biotherapeutics to Buy from Hold with a price target of $13, up from $6. The type-A meeting with the FDA provides a potential approval pathway for tab-cel, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Pierre Fabre will submit updated Phase 3 ALLELE data, possibly opening the door for approval and significant royalty and milestone payments for Atara, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• KOPN Canaccord assumed coverage of Kopin with a Buy rating and $5.50 price target. Kopin is the leading U.S. domestic maker of microdisplays and optical modules for critical defense, industrial and medical applications, says the analyst, who notes that virtually all of the company's competitors are located in China or the broader APAC region.
• AORT Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Artivion to $36 from $48 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Artivion's Q1 revenue missed expectations, and the company lowered its FY26 forecast. The Q1 miss was driven by weakness in the international stent graft business, due to weakness in the Middle East and supply-chain issues, as well as lower-than-expected AMDS stocking in the U.S.
• BKSY Canaccord analyst Austin Moeller raised the firm's price target on BlackSky to $42.50 from $26 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said the top and bottom line results missed expectations and magement revised its 2026 expectations to the upside pointing to midpoint revenue and Adj. EBITDA of $140M and $18M, respectively.
• CORZ Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi raised the firm's price target on Core Scientific (CORZ) to $30 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said just a couple of quarters after its proposed merger with customer Coreweave (CRWV) was terminated, the company's standalone growth strategy has done nothing but accelerate. Q1 was highlighted by solid progress across all three key areas of the business; what is now a ramping P&L from co-lo services provided to Coreweave; successful financings to fund further expansion, and efforts to materially increase the power portfolio both at existing and new sites to support longer term portfolio growth.
• DDOG Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Datadog to $225 from $185 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Datadog started FY26 with strong results across the board, and raising guidance. Despite a lack of key KPIs on AI natives, customer examples highlight the growing usage of Datadog within the AI stack. Moving to the numbers, total revenue of $1.006B saw even more acceleration to 32% year-over-year on stronger-than-expected customer usage across all segments and continued growth from both AI customers and non-AI customers.
• FROG Canaccord raised the firm's price target on JFrog to $78 from $66 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they printed an unambiguously strong beat-and-raise in Q1 highlighted by $154.0M in revenue well ahead of the Street's $143M estimate, with Cloud revenue of $78.9M reaccelerating to 50% year-over-year and crossing the 50%-of-revenue mix threshold for the first time at 51%.
• MIDD Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Middleby to $200 from $203 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported strong beat and raise Q1 results with sales roughly 8% ahead of consensus, driven by a Food Processing segment that grew a robust +25% organically and a return to growth in Commercial Foodservice (CFS) where organic sales increased +8%.
• NATR Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Nature's Sunshine to $37 from $33 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported better than expected Q1 results. Management highlighted plans to enter Germany and expand into two new high-value Asian markets using the Synergy Asia sales system. Management also noted they are rolling out the Synergy brand to the U.S. market through affiliates that know the brand well in Asia.
• NSIT Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Insight Enterprises to $75 from $90 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said Insight reported a strong Q1, but despite the optical strength, the stock was roughly flat on the day, which they attribute to a combination of factors; an unquantified inorganic contribution from recent acquisitions, a hardware backlog that reflects pull-forward demand tied to rising memory costs; and easier year-over-year compares in Q1 that get materially harder as the year progresses.
• PLNT Canaccord analyst Brian McNamara lowered the firm's price target on Planet Fitness to $80 from $122 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported Q1 results that were well ahead of expectations, but that's where the good news ends as the company cut its guidance and pulled it three-year targets introduced at its Investor Day just six months ago.

• ARWR Chardan raised the firm's price target on Arrowhead to $90 from $80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the fiscal Q2 report. The U.S. launch of Redemplo is off to a good start, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ABNB Citi analyst Ronald Josey raised the firm's price target on Airbnb to $175 from $155 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q1 report as strong. Airbnb is expanding its product portfolio, creating new growth opportunities in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• LLY Guggenheim analyst Seamus Fernandez raised the firm's price target on Eli Lilly to $1,235 from $1,183 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q1 results.
• EPAM Guggenheim analyst Jonathan Lee lowered the firm's price target on Epam Systems to $165 from $200 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after Q1 results came in at the high end of management's expectations, but with less upside than historical norms, citing continued industry-wide multiple pressure for the firm's lowered target.
• FROG Guggenheim analyst Howard Ma raised the firm's price target on JFrog to $80 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. No one was expecting Q1 Cloud revenue to accelerate to 50% from 42% in Q4, which drove total revenue acceleration to 26% from 24% in Q4, says the analyst, who cites "significantly higher plausible estimates" for the firm's raised target.
• TTD Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Trade Desk to $25 from $28 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares on reduced growth forecasts after the company's Q2 revenue outlook of "at least" $750M, which is below consensus' $772M forecast and implies further top-line deceleration.
• WMG Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Warner Music to $36 from $34 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Fiscal second quarter results came in meaningfully ahead of the firm's model and management raised its FY26 margin expansion guidance, notes the analyst, who says these results "support more value in the enterprise than we had previously modeled."
• PLNT Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Planet Fitness to $95 from $126 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's lowered target reflects lowered FY27 estimates, but it notes that it still represents "material upside potential" and acknowledges that, "down here, we could still see material upside with a much lower multiple."

• TPR JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss raised the firm's price target on Tapestry to $200 from $190 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model to reflect the Q3 beat and recommends buying the weakness in the shares.
• MCHP JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Microchip to $120 from $95 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a "clean beat across the board" and provided guidance above expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CEVA JPMorgan initiated coverage of Ceva with a Neutral rating and $30 price target. The firm views Ceva as leading licensor of edge AI processor and wireless connectivity intellectual property. The stock's premium valuation multiple prohibits material upside to the current share price, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SRRK JPMorgan placed a "Positive Catalyst Watch" on shares of Scholar Rock with an Overweight rating and $56 price target. The firm is "very pleased" the apitegromab applicating for the treatment of children and adults with spinal muscular atrophy was accepted by the FDA with a September 30 action date. The firm believes the data support approval on or before the action date.

• AKAM KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader raised the firm's price target on Akamai to $195 from $120 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes investors should be happy with Akamai raising the stakes again this quarter, signing a seven-year, $1.8B contract with a leading AI company. The results in the quarter were actually a mild disappointment to KeyBanc's eyes, but the expansion of the inference revenue base is the dominant theme of the stock right now and will be the dominant theme of the financials in the coming years.
• CGNX KeyBanc analyst Ken Newman raised the firm's price target on Cognex to $80 from $70 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm thinks Cognex is clearly benefiting from the early stages of a short-cycle inflection, which has been magnified by ongoing cost-out benefits. While KeyBanc acknowledges lumpy nuances in Q3 sales due to order timing and prior-year one-time benefits, the firm continues to see potential upside to consensus estimates into the second half of 2026 and 2027 from further momentum in organic volumes and additional productivity initiatives.
• DDOG KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Datadog to $225 from $155 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's strong Q1 revenue acceleration was broad-based across both AI-native and non-AI customers, the firm says. Q1 reflected many of the tailwinds. Observability and infra software is benefiting from the increased velocity of app development and AI is moving into production, which needs to be monitored and secured. Datadog's relevance with AI-natives is strengthening with the addition of two hyperscaler AI research labs and increasing traction with its AI product offerings, KeyBanc adds.
• FROG KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on JFrog to $83 from $79 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes JFrog reported strong Q1 results, as Cloud growth accelerated to 50% and handily beat expectations. The company highlighted continued broad-based strength, with upside driven by large enterprise customers, usage above commitments, and growing adoption of Security Core. While full year guidance was raised across the board, the second half of the year deceleration in growth still looks quite conservative, adds KeyBanc.
• HUBS KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $290 from $340 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Acceleration on the top line will have to wait for at least for another quarter or two, the firm says. Net-new ARR broke its streak of growing faster than the overall business and a re-working of the pricing and packaging for some key AI tools contributed to a tough start to the year. In after-hours trading the stock is approaching a 40 GAAP price-to-earnings ratio, an unthinkable level just a few months ago as now a new risk is tacked on to the list, notes KeyBanc.
• MCD KeyBanc analyst Eric Gonzalez lowered the firm's price target on McDonald's to $330 from $345 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees no major surprises in Q1 earnings, with U.S./IOM comparable sales coming in perhaps slightly higher than investor expectations. April softness is likely transitory - due in large part to tough year-over-year comparison - but macro uncertainty will very much remain focus, adds KeyBanc.
• MCHP KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Microchip to $135 from $85 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported strong Q4 results and Q1 guidance, which exceeded expectations. Key cycle KPIs continue to improve, KeyBanc adds.
• PLNT KeyBanc analyst Noah Zatzkin lowered the firm's price target on Planet Fitness to $65 from $100 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company beat on the top and bottom line, but lowered guidance via softer net joins. The confluence of macro pressure, bad weather, and misaligned marketing led to softer than expected net joins in the quarter - and of course, the cascade effect of softer Q1 joins has outsized impact on the model. This, coupled with the pause in Black Card price increases this year and pulled three-year targets, pressured shares. That said, with a lower bar, marketing issues ID'd, and meaningful industry tailwinds, KeyBanc remains long-term positive.
• VNT KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Vontier to $40 from $50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the company's Q1 results and the updated outlook that reflects the Teletrac Navman divestiture. While KeyBanc acknowledges disappointment in Q1 margins that came in below prior guidance, the firm thinks headwinds are mainly a one-time event, with management expecting margins to ramp through the year for about 130 bps of year-over-year improvement. KeyBanc also thinks FY26 revenue guidance could be modestly conservative, particularly for EFS given strong demand from national C-store customers. As such, it thinks the selloff in the shares is overdone and believes its bullish thesis remains intact.

• HUBS Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $350 from $405 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Q1 results reinforced growth stability, though AI pricing/packaging and proof-of-value go-to-market changes are tempering acceleration expectations, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note. While disruptive near term, these actions should ultimately support AI adoption and prove additive to growth, the analyst added.

• AKAM Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Akamai to $156 from $114 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While the quarter itself was uninspiring, along with the FY26 guide, the large $1.8B/seven-year win with a large frontier model that will start impacting revenue in Q4 overshadows this dynamic, the firm says. This will take a significant increase in capex, though should result in solid multi-year returns and cause 2027 and beyond growth to be greater than 10% that bulls have been playing for, adds Piper.
• MSI Piper Sandler analyst James Fish raised the firm's price target on Motorola Solutions to $503 from $499 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Motorola reported a "standard" quarter, beating estimates by 1% and slightly raising the guide given the underlying strength this quarter in Command Center, Silvus, Video, and AI-attach. With multiple catalysts ahead, a team executing well, a heating-up drone / anti-jamming market, a stable customer base, and an AI-narrative that Piper sees in MSI's and the space's favor, the firm continues to want to own this one.
• NET Piper Sandler analyst James Fish raised the firm's price target on Cloudflare to $250 from $222 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says it is not surprised that shares are trading down over 15% post-market following the more than 40% run over just the last few weeks and that this was largely a perplexing quarter for Cloudflare that may remind some of three-years ago. Piper continues to recommend buying dips in Cloudflare as one of the highest quality names in tech.
• PZZA Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan lowered the firm's price target on Papa John's to $30 from $32 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm notes North America same-store sales result of down 6.4% was below consensus, and is indicative of the difficult operating environment across QSR broadly and also across the QSR Pizza category specifically. On the call, management indicated that Q2-to-date same-store sales are running a bit worse than the down 6.4% from the Q1, which compares unfavorably to the pre-print consensus, and which should lead to downward revisions to consensus same-store sales estimates exiting the quarter.
• JANX Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Janux Therapeutics to $26 from $30 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported Q1 earnings and provided a corporate update that was largely in line with prior guidance. Following the recent discontinuation of the JANX008 program, and the updated guidance that the additional JANX007 clinical data will be coming in the first half of 2027, there is now just one clinical update still planned for this year, namely JANX011 initial clinical data from the healthy volunteer study. Investor focus remains on JANX007 as they look for a signal that it could be a competitive product in the evolving mCRPC space.
• NKTR Piper Sandler analyst Yasmeen Rahimi raised the firm's price target on Nektar to $192 from $105 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported Q1 earnings, and importantly updated on REZPEG's Phase 3 ZENITH-AD program design. Accordingly, ZENITH-AD will include five total trials, with the two biologic-naive AD studies to kick-off July 2026 with first ZENITH-AD readout mid-2028. Further, ZENITH-AD includes a third trial in biologic-experienced AD patients with initiation a "few months after" biologic-naive.
• EXPE Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $245 from $225 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's Q1 results beat its estimates and Q2 guidance came in ahead of its prior expectations. With that said, the company left FY26 guidance unchanged, in what Piper thinks is in an effort to be conservative. Macro headwinds from Mexico travel advisories and the Middle East conflict cost approximately two points of bookings and room night growth in March, though cancellations normalized in April. Shares traded down 8% after hours which looks like an overreaction to the firm.

• IBP RBC Capital upgraded Installed Building Products to Sector Perform from Underperform with a price target of $228, down from $255. The company's expectations and valuation multiple have sharply reset, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Installed Building's "aura of recent invincibility has broken," with residential pressures and emerging margin headwinds "coming home to roost." It cites valuation for the upgrade.
• TGT RBC Capital analyst Steven Shemesh raised the firm's price target on Target to $132 from $130 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of its Q1 results. The firm is cautiously optimistic that turnaround efforts are beginning to resonate with the consumer, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• SHAK Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull upgraded Shake Shack to Buy from Hold with a price target of $85, down from $105. The firm believes the market has overreacted to the company's "disappointing" Q1 earnings and soft April sales. Trading near 10-year valuation lows, a level seen during the COVID trough, Shake Shack shares offer a "compelling entry point for a culturally relevant brand delivering low-teens+ unit growth," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CLPT Stifel analyst Tom Stephan resumed coverage of ClearPoint Neuro with a Buy rating and $16 price target. ClearPoint is well-positioned in the large neurological disorder market with its "robust" and "differentiated" neuro ecosystem that enables precise delivery of both drugs and devices, the analyst tells investors.

• CG TD Cowen downgraded Carlyle to Hold from Buy with a price target of $53, down from $54, following the Q1 report. The firm trimmed estimates for Carlyle post the earnings call, saying the company's earnings profile is "far more hockey stick" through 2028.
• PLNT TD Cowen analyst Max Rakhlenko downgraded Planet Fitness to Hold from Buy with a price target of $50, down from $90, following the earnings report. The company's marketing changes and other challenges it faces will take longer to fix given the size and maturity of the business, the analyst tells investors in a research note. TD believes Planet Fitness needs to strengthen its value proposition as competition will increase "from a modest headwind in several markets today to a national challenge over the coming years." The firm is cautious for the company to have enough time to scale necessary changes to insulate it from future competitive threats.

• TPR UBS upgraded Tapestry to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $187, up from $142. The firm says the company is successfully executing its new customer acquisition plan, particularly Gen-Z consumers, better than expected. Meanwhile, Coach is "ramping rapidly" in its Greater China region, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS sees improved sustainability of Coach's sales momentum and views Tapestry as an "AI-winner."
• ABNB UBS raised the firm's price target on Airbnb to $157 from $153 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Airbnb saw a modest impact from the Middle East conflict relative to peers, with about a 1% headwind to Nights and Seats Booked and expected Q2 deceleration of about 100 basis points, while continued rollout of Reserve Now, Pay Later is extending booking lead times and reducing friction for higher-priced listings, and improving efficiency is driving a 10% decline in cost per booking, supporting an upgraded FY26 margin outlook and signaling potential for revenue acceleration in 2H26 alongside ongoing product innovation and cost synergies, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TOST UBS analyst Timothy Chiodo lowered the firm's price target on Toast to $34 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Toast reported strong Q1 results across key operating metrics, including higher-than-expected location additions, GPV growth, and SaaS annual recurring revenue per location, alongside improving payment take rates and continued strength in higher-growth segments like international, F&B retail, and enterprise, while also demonstrating meaningful progress toward profitability with expanding operating margins and rising EPS, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SG UBS analyst Dennis Geiger raised the firm's price target on Sweetgreen to $7 from $6.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Sweetgreen's Q1 results showed pressured sales and traffic due to unfavorable weather, macro headwinds, and tough comparisons, but trends improved into April driven by better execution, strong performance from the Chicken Sesame Crunch Bowl, and early traction from Wraps in select markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• NKE Wells Fargo downgraded Nike to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $45, down from $55. Wells says that as the largest footwear company globally, Nike does not fit with its preference of clothing outperforming over the next few years. The broader shift away from athletic apparel and the "over-saturation" of the market from excess competition create fundamental challenges for Nike, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells says the global Nike turnaround is taking longer and international disruption is likely to weigh on its results near-term.
• VSCO Wells Fargo upgraded Victoria's Secret to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $57, up from $55. The firm's work shows GLP-1 adoption is behind a "mega-trend that can drive robust demand" in U.S. apparel for multiple years. Wells is bullish on the trajectory of Victoria's business under the new management team. The company is repositioning back towards "sexy" branding and has improved marketing campaigns, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RXO Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on RXO Inc. to $22 from $15 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Coming off its callback, the firm is raising estimates. Wells notes Q2 guide came in above its target, with higher spot exposure driving accelerating revenue growth, despite margin squeeze. Truckload volumes are improving, with a year-over-year inflection expected by midyear, the firm adds.
• U Wells Fargo analyst Alec Bonello raised the firm's price target on Unity to $35 from $29 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. After a strong Q1 pre-announce, Q2 guide implies trends remain stable ahead of runtime data implementation later in the quarter, the firm says. With Unity AI now in beta and new registrations inflecting, Wells believes AI sentiment on the engine business improves from here.
• ARW Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Arrow Electronics to $165 from $140 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. While Q1 benefited from some unexpected demand pull-in across both businesses, Arrow's results highlight continued signs of a cyclical recovery, the firm says. Wells views continued evidence of sustainable / structural EBIT percentage improvement as key driver of shares.
• AGL Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Agilon Health to $72 from $37.50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is encouraged by Q1 results and conservative approach to cost trend guidance, particularly in light of company's recent track record and low Q1 visibility. Out-year trajectory seems meaningfully under-modeled by consensus, Wells adds.
• ARGX Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Argenx to $1,260 from $1,247 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Vyvgart's growth remains durable with a path to over $6B in revenue in FY26 despite maturing launches in myasthenia gravis and chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy. Near term, Wells thinks shares can trade up 15% in its base case for Vyvgart's myositis Phase 3 expected in Q3 2026.

• HUBS William Blair downgraded HubSpot to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target post the earnings report. HubSpot's path to a growth reacceleration "has become more uncertain," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a tougher path to a near-term acceleration, saying HubSpot's net new annual recurring revenue growth was slower than revenue growth in Q1 while Q2 is off to a slow start after the company took about a week in April to retrain its sales reps.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET                 Employment Trends M/m for April
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ACHR ACM ASTS BKKT BLNK BW CDRE CHRS CLSK CNDT CNNE COOK CPRX DCGO DDD DSP FIGR GDOT GETY GTM HALO HCAT HIMS HLIT HROW IHRT ITGR MARA NGS NOVT OVV PANL PLNY PLUG QUBT REKR RGTI SIBN SPG STE WBTN

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI Ex: Food & Energy M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for April
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for April
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE crop report for May
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal Budget for April
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEYE AKA ANDG ATRO BGS CAPR DDI EPM FNV GRWG GUTS JBS KRMN KURA NCMI NPCE NXT OPRX PAYS REZI STXS TELA VELO VRCA

• Bank America 2026 Industrials, Transportation and Airlines Key Leaders, 5/12-5/14
• Bank America 2026 Healthcare Conference Agena, 5/12-5/14
• BMO Capital Real Assets Conference, 5/12-5/13, in New York
• Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum 5/12
• Needham 21st Annual Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer Conference, 5/12-/5/14, in NY

• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PPI Ex: Food & Energy M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PPI Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for April
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ARX BEAT CCAP CPA CSCO CSWC CTSO DOCS DOX ENVX EQPT FOSL GO INVE JACK LESL LIDR LVLY MFC NOA PBH SI SPIR STAA STN STUB TK WATT WRAP

• Bank America 2026 Industrials, Transportation and Airlines Key Leaders, 5/12-5/14
• Bank America 2026 Healthcare Conference Agena, 5/12-5/14
• BMO Capital Real Assets Conference, 5/12-5/13, in New York
• Needham 21st Annual Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer Conference, 5/12-/5/14, in NY

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales Ex Autos M/M for April
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business Inventories M/M for March
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AENT AMAT AQST CLPR DFLI DLO EGAN ETON GAMB GEMI GLOB HTFL JCAP KLC LGCY NU RCEL RUM SPCE SSTI VUZI WKHS XOS YSS

• Bank America 2026 Healthcare Conference Agena, 5/12-5/14
• Needham 21st Annual Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer Conference, 5/12-/5/14, in NY

• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for April
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization M/M for April
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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