Early Look

Thursday, October 8, 2026

Its ground hogs day! Stock index futures are lower as prospects for a peace agreement between Iran and the United States appeared difficult after President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran was “not really something” he wants. Oil prices are jumping over 5% as Brent tops $105 and WTI crude to $92.75 per barrel. Also, after pulling back on Wednesday, Treasury yields resume their upward momentum as the 10-year again approaches 5.35%, its highest levels since 2002 on rising inflation fears. U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp both pulled back off all-time highs reached Tuesday and the S&P 500 and Dow both snapped 5 day winning streaks as higher Treasury yields impacting borrowing costs and lending remain a problem for investor sentiment. Initial jobless claims, the 30-year Treasury bond auction, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be on the economic calendar today. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -993 points to 69,042, the Shanghai Index reopened after its Golden Week holiday, falling -30 points to 3,811, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -344 points to 23,785. In Europe, the German DAX is down around -300 points to 24,807, while the FTSE 100 falls -63 points to 10,394.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -341.41 points, or 0.66%, to 51,179.87
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -61.20 points, or 0.22%, to 27,538.69
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -40.50 points, or 1.34% to 2,992.44

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.708M
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for August…est. +0.7%
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-yr notes

• Earnings After the Close: ODC

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +1.3% vs -11.9% last week. Bulls rose to 40.3% to from 34.6%, Neutrals rose to 20.8% from 18.9%, Bears fell to 39% from 46.5%.

• Costco (COST) reports September net sales of $30.02B, up 13.0% for five weeks ended Oct 4, 2026; comparable sales up 11.4% for five weeks ended Oct 4, 2026.
• Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q3 adj EPS $0.48 vs. est. $0.36; Q3 revs $1.61B vs. est. $1.62B up 5% organically y/y; Q3 gross margins rose to 66.2% from 61.7% and operating margin widened to 13.8% from 10.8%; said impact of tariff refunds contributed $0.16 of EPS benefit in qtr; said international and wholesale were strong, while DTC missed internal expectations; raises FY26 EPS view to $1.54-$1.56 from $1.46-$1.52, while cuts FY26 reported net revenue growth view to roughly 7% from 7%-7.5%.
• Lululemon Athletics’ (LULU) new CEO is shaking up management as the retailer Struggles with slumping sales and a stock price that is down more than 50% this year. In one of her first major moves since becoming CEO last month, Heidi O'Neill ousted two executives, created two new positions and hired former Nike and Walmart executives to fill them, WSJ reported.
• Richardson Electronics (RELL) Q1 sales rose 19% y/y to $64.92M vs. est. $59M, net income more than doubled to $4.06M, lifting EPS to $0.27 vs. est. $0.09; Q1 gross margin widened 3.6% points to 34.6%, operating income jumped to $5.12M; Q1 backlog rose 37% y/y to $184.4M, with an increase in PMT.

• ExxonMobil (XOM) is seeking to build on its Guyana success with exploration offshore Trinidad and Tobago, its global exploration chief told the Financial Times. Exxon secured a production-sharing agreement within seven months and arranged seismic work in six months.
• Ryder (R) was upgraded to Buy on attractive valuation given pullback at Citigroup saying they see incremental strength in Used Vehicle Sales and anticipate the company to raise its '26 UVS guide again; also sees incremental strength in Rental and the contractual Lease and Dedicated businesses.
• UPS (UPS) mistakenly routed sensitive Lockheed Martin (LMT) F-35 components through Hong Kong after an employee missed a warning that the shipment was subject to U.S. arms-export restrictions, Bloomberg News reported.

• Resource Connection (RGP) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.16) vs. est. loss (-$0.17); Q1 revs $98.1M vs. est. $100M; Q1 Operating Income $-7.307M, Q1 gross margin 37.4% and Q1 adj Ebitda loss (-$3.6M).

• Atrium Therapeutics (RNA) announces $50M Private Placement; to sell 6.3 million shares or pre-funded warrants at $7.93 apiece; will have runway fund operations through 2028.

• Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) announced a collaboration with Arm (ARM) to enable secure control, management, and platform adaptability for AI infrastructure.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) said it expects its operating profit for this quarter to be more than double what it made for all of 2025; estimated an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ($80.17 billion) for the July-September period, slightly ahead of consensus of 106.1 trillion won.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) said September sales rose 55% on year, but they were down 0.6% from the previous month; record Q3 revenue of T$1.49 trillion ($46.71 billion), beating the market forecast and rising 50% from the year-earlier period due to surging demand for AI applications.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) shares surged as announces conditional 30-year, $1.5B loan commitment from U.S. department of war to advance domestic wide bandgap supply chain; to upgrade gallium nitride epitaxy and develop radiation-hardening capabilities with financing.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, October 08, 2026

U.S. stock futures slid overnight as crude oil spikes and Treasury yields hold near multi-year highs (same story, different day) while energy stocks and consumer staples lead, but healthcare falls. Markets have since pared losses as Treasury yields have leveled off. To this point, major averages overall (S&P 500, Nasdaq) have overlooked the rising impact of oil and yields, with both indices coming off all-time highs just two days ago, but the market internals (52 week his and lows, breadth) have been notably weak, as heavily weighted tech stocks (XLK, QQQ) outperformance has helped offset weakness in various other sectors (financials, consumer discretionary, communications), which remain down on the year. Oil prices rose more than 5% this morning on persistent worries about supply from the Middle East amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while the US cut output as a hurricane menaced offshore production. Gold edges up after hitting 2-month low as markets weigh Fed rate path. Treasury yields remain volatile and holding near two decade highs; Bitcoin prices down again. Earnings season right around the corner with big banks next week, while Pepsi (PEP) reported better Q3 results today.

• Aug wholesale inventories revised to +0.5% (consensus +0.7%) from +0.7%.

• Payments sector: CHYM was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank and raise PT to $35 tgt as thesis is centered on sustained momentum in MyPay and Chime Prime, which it views as a multi-year growth drivers that can accelerate active acquisition, expand CHYM's addressable market, attract a higher-income customer demographic, and support a structurally higher growth profile for longer. Oppenheimer upgraded GPN to Outperform as believes valuation provides a buying oppty as 2026 earnings are largely derisked, 2027 free cash flow could accelerate driven by reduced one-time costs and ongoing operating leverage along with stable consumer spending. Opco downgraded FISV to Perform largely given ongoing uncertainty around revenue and earnings growth trajectory.
• Gov’t IT/Software service sector: PLTR was upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs with $230 PT saying sovereign Ai, bespoke applications and vertical expansion materially deepen the addressable market. LDOS was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan as sees the company's 2027 sales just above $18B, up 1%-2% organically, with a significant decline in the Health unit. BAH was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist and raise PT to $85 from $70 saying they think Civil revenue decline is nearing a bottom while strength in National Security remains underappreciated. Truist also believes Democratic control of Congress could lower the risk of incremental Civil spending cuts and revenue pressure, helping stabilize the segment.

• CMG +5%; after the Financial Times reported SBUX has explored takeover of CMG in restaurant mega deal. A purchase of nearly $39B market-value burrito chain would rank as largest restaurant acquisition of all time https://tinyurl.com/yc7dpt8j
• GNRC +2%; was upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight with $280 PT at Keybanc after CEO meeting, coming away with a better understanding of the Amazon LTA and the benefits it should drive going forward.
• HAE +15%; after disclosed an update on its non-exclusive U.S. supply agreement with CSL Plasma for NexSys PCS Devices with Persona PLUS. CSL expects to complete the rollout by end-2027, targeting a transition across all current U.S. plasma collection Centers.
• HELE +6%; after Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.79 topped estimates of $0.50 on sales of $440.9M, as the company raised its FY sales outlook to $1.768B-$1.82B and EPS guidance to $3.63-$4.26.
• PCRX +44%; to be acquired by VTRS for $36.50 per share in cash in deal valued at $1.65B, adding the pain therapy maker's products to its portfolio as it seeks to expand its innovative medicines business.
• PLTR +3%; was upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs with $230 PT saying sovereign Ai, bespoke applications and vertical expansion materially deepen the addressable market.
• RNA +3%; as announces $50M Private Placement; to sell 6.3 million shares or pre-funded warrants at $7.93 apiece; will have runway fund operations through 2028.
• WOLF +6%; shares surged as announces conditional 30-year, $1.5B loan commitment from U.S. department of war to advance domestic wide bandgap supply chain; to upgrade gallium nitride epitaxy and develop radiation-hardening capabilities with financing

• ARGX 12%; after the company discontinued a late-stage study of efgartigimod in Sjogren's disease due to lack of efficacy, with an independent data monitoring committee recommending the study be stopped following an interim analysis.
• CRGY -5%; entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Eagle Ford assets from DVN for an estimated net purchase price of approximately $3.85 billion. The acquired assets include approximately 68 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day of net production.
• LEVI -4%; Q3 results were mixed, with an EPS beat driven by higher gross margins and tariff refunds offset by softer-than-expected U.S. and European DTC trends, though course corrections and improved weather are driving a better Q4 trajectory.
• RGP -13%; on earnings results; Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.16) vs. est. loss (-$0.17); Q1 revs $98.1M vs. est. $100M; Q1 Operating Income $-7.307M, Q1 gross margin 37.4% and Q1 adj Ebitda loss (-$3.6M).
• SWIM -6%; was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair on concerns 2027 estimates are too high, with the firm seeing numbers under pressure from higher rates and fuel costs weighing on the pool market.

Closing Recap

Thursday, October 08, 2026

US equity futures slipped overnight following a modest down day yesterday. Some concerns about a peak in data center spending appear to be emerging but have not been supported by company reports thus far. Similarly, Fed hike uncertainty has created new waves of speculation and hesitation in the market as investors look for incremental data to cement timing expectations for the next move. 

Early breadth favored decliners by 2:1 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.76%) versus SPY (-0.20%) and QQQ (-0.32%). SPY breadth favored decliners by 7:5 while QQQ breadth favored decliners by 3:2. Early ETF sector performance saw just three gainers versus eight decliners with Energy (+2.61%), Consumer Staples (+1.27%) and Communications (+0.40%) leading versus Technology (-0.42%), Real Estate (-0.62%) and Health Care (-1.91%) lagging.

In sentiment metrics today, the bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +1.3% vs -11.9% last week.  Bulls gained, climbing from 34.6% to 40.3% while bears dipped from 46.5% to 39%. Separately, the Fear and Greed Index registered 41/100 to remain in the Fear category, up from last week’s 28 (Fear) and last month’s 39 (Fear).

Heading into the final hour of trading, US equities held losses amidst an abundance of uncertainty around inflation/rates/the Fed, Iran/Hormuz and the upcoming earnings season. The good news is the first five days of the quarter were a positive start for the S&P 500 with history indicating 29 of 32 times we’ve seen this type of positive start, the quarter has closed higher. The AI tech sector pushed the Nasdaq lower midday on reports that OpenAI recently told investors its revenues were approaching $50B on an annualized basis at end of September, far short of the $70B reported, took a lot of steam out of the AI spending trade.

• WTI crude futures jumped overnight as reports circulated that the US may be considering large military operations in Iran. Also pushing prices were additional shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing Houthi missile attacks and the threat of hurricane Isaias on energy infrastructure curtailing production. Futures settled off the highs but still +$3.21/bbl, or +3.64%, at $91.49 following a statement from President Trump that we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.
• Treasury yields hit back near 2002 highs with the 10-year at 5.35%, but before the day was over, yields worked their way back lower as the 10-year yield fell -4.9 bps to 5.232%, while the longer dated 30-yr yield fell -5.5 bps to 5.606% (off recent 52-week high 5.664%). U.K. 30-year gilt yields hit 6.047%, highest since 1998 and the U.K. 10-year gilt yields hit 5.527%, highest since 2007

• Hardline/Broadline sector: COST reported a strong start Q1 with September US comps (ex-fuel/FX) +8.0% vs +5.6% in August, and total comps (ex-fuel/FX) +7.6% vs +5.4%. Food and sundries were up +MSD while non-foods were +HSD and an Accel in price and volume led to mid-40s growth in gas.
• Specialty Retail sector: HELE shares jumped on results as Q2 adj EPS $0.79 vs. est. $0.50 but sales of $440M just missed; Q2 results include gross pre-tax tariff refunds of $26.9M; Sees FY outlook for sales of $1.768B-$1.82B vs. consensus ests of $1.81B and sees FY outlook for EPS of $3.63-$4.26; BKE comparable store net sales, for stores open at least one year, for the 5-week period ended October 3, 2026 increased 0.5% from comparable store net sales for the 5-week period ended October 4, 2025.
• Apparel Retailers: LULU announced a new leadership restructuring, with the creation of new President & Chief Product Officer and COO roles; alongside this, its brand product activation and supply chain leaders will depart. LEVI Q3 results were mixed, with an EPS beat driven by higher gross margins and tariff refunds offset by softer-than-expected U.S. and European DTC trends, though course corrections and improved weather are driving a better Q4 trajectory.
• Restaurant sector: CMG shares jumped after the Financial Times reported SBUX has explored takeover of CMG in restaurant mega deal. A purchase of nearly $39B market-value burrito chain would rank as largest restaurant acquisition of all time https://tinyurl.com/yc7dpt8j

• Cruise sector: RCL was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and raised tgt to $330 from $305 saying they see a more favorable net yield setup for Royal in fiscal 2027. It expects estimates to move higher on the Sandals joint venture.

• Oil refining sector: DK, PARR and PSX were all downgraded to Neutral from Buy in the oil refining sector on valuation at Mizuho as the firm increased targets in the refiners group by 40% on average to reflect higher and longer-lasting crack assumptions. However, with higher earnings mostly priced into the shares, Mizuho downgraded three names on valuation.
• Alternative Energy & Solar sector: BLDP said it secured a 4.8 MW order from rail transportation technology company Siemens Mobility to power 12 hydrogen trains for Romania's Railway Reform Authority; says trains are expected to enter passenger service in 2029, with Ballard's fuel cell deliveries scheduled for 2027 and 2028. In solar, Goldman Sachs cut FSLR tgt to $272 from $310 and RUN to $11 from $13 saying investor expectations heading into Q3 earnings are subdued amid macro headwinds, despite favorable year-to-date bookings and demand trends.

• BMY said Zenbexus, recently granted FDA accelerated approval to treat multiple myeloma, reduced the risk of disease progression by 51% compared to standard therapy in a Phase 3 trial.
• PCRX shares jumped after VTRS agreed to buy the company for $36.50 per share in cash in deal valued at $1.65B, adding the pain therapy maker's products to its portfolio as it seeks to expand its innovative medicines business.
• RNA announces $50M Private Placement; to sell 6.3 million shares or pre-funded warrants at $7.93 apiece; will have runway fund operations through 2028
• Medical Equipment sector: HAE shares jumped after an update on its non-exclusive U.S. supply agreement with CSL Plasma for NexSys PCS Devices with Persona PLUS. CSL expects to complete the rollout by end-2027, targeting a transition across all current U.S. plasma collection Centers.
• Cannabis sector: TLRY Q1 revenue rose 23% y/y to $257M as the company reduced outstanding debt by $42M and ended Q1 with net cash position; reaffirms fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $68M-$75M and expects financial results to be more weighted toward the second half of fiscal 2027
• Medical device sector: ANGO reported earnings and names Eric Honroth as President and CEO, replacing Jim Clemmer, who will retire and depart the board on November 2, 2026, while remaining as a consultant.

• Transport sector: Ryder (R) was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup on attractive valuation given pullback, saying they see incremental strength in Used Vehicle Sales and anticipate the company to raise its '26 UVS guide again; also sees incremental strength in Rental and the contractual Lease and Dedicated businesses.

• Aerospace sector: in Plane Chain of Aerospace suppliers, Keybanc said its survey showed continued growth in OEM orders amid production rate increases, modestly above prior expectations. Supplier inventories are normalizing post restocking, while A&D aftermarket remains tight, supporting prolonged fleet Life. The firm lowered price tgts on ATI, CRS and KALU.
• Satellite & Telecom: GILT announced that Gilat DataPath has received orders totaling more than $8M from the U.S. Department of War for field services and SATCOM system upgrades supporting deployed military communications systems. Deliveries are expected over the next 12 months.

• APLD reported Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.01) vs. est. loss (-$0.30); Q1 revs $341.9M vs. est. $116.3M; Q1 adj Ebitda $64.4M; Q1 Services revenue rose 225% to $262.8M and data center rental and other revenue was $79.1M; Q1 SG&A expenses rose 289% to $114.7M.
• GOOGL launched Gemini Agent which is a universal enterprise agent that completes work across documents, email and business systems while routing each task to most cost effective model. Google is now competing with MSFT, META and OpenAI to own front door to enterprise work.

• Gaming software sector: Unity (U) was upgraded to Outperform from market Perform at Raymond James saying stronger-than-expected Grow execution and the GOOGL partnership improve the outlook, with faster Vector growth and operating leverage exceeding expectations while Google's AI and consumer distribution strengthen Unity's creator/content funnel, improving confidence in the Create/Runtime/Vector flywheel and overall risk/reward.
• Video game spending fell per Circana saying U.S. video game projected total spending across content, hardware and accessories dipped 9% in August when compared to a year ago, to $4.3B. Mobile was the primary driver of the overall August spending decline, falling 18% vs YA. Console content spend declined by 7%, PC content increased by 13%, and subscription grew 3%. August video game hardware spending fell 3% when compared to a year ago, to $302M.
• IT Services & Consulting sector: CTSH, INFY suspended from U.S. labor certification program. Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling stated, according to a post made by the official White House Rapid Response account: "I am hereby suspending from the Permanent Labor Certification Program some of the largest IT outsourcing firms in the world - Cognizant, Infosys, Tata, Wipro, HCL, and Capgemini - and also, due to multiple active federal investigations, @USDOL is suspending Microsoft and Adobe from the program."
• Telecom & Cable sector: CABO shares fell after the WSJ reported the company is nearing a deal to raise $1.25B in new financing, citing people familiar with the matter. The first-lien term loan will be provided by both existing and new lenders, with the proceeds going to pay down debt.

• GFS establishes 5-year silicon interposer manufacturing agreement with TSM; Volume production expected to ramp in H1 2028.
• IMOS posted record quarterly revenue, with September 2026 sales up 33.8% year-on-year and third-quarter revenue climbing 36.7% y/y.
• LSCC announced a collaboration with ARM to enable secure control, management, and platform adaptability for AI infrastructure.
• SSNLF Samsung Electronics said it expects its operating profit for this quarter to be more than double what it made for all of 2025; estimated an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ($80.17 billion) for the July-September period, slightly ahead of consensus of 106.1 trillion won.
• TSM said September sales rose 55% on year, but they were down 0.6% from the previous month; record Q3 revenue of T$1.49 trillion ($46.71 billion), beating the market forecast and rising 50% from the year-earlier period due to surging demand for AI applications.
• WOLF announced a conditional 30-year, $1.5B loan commitment from U.S. department of war to advance domestic wide bandgap supply chain; to upgrade gallium nitride epitaxy and develop radiation-hardening capabilities with financing
• Citigroup said they remain constructive in the semi space, estimate revision momentum slowed in Q2 and Citi expects a further moderation in Q3. Citi says networking > semi-caps > analogs continue to show the strongest momentum followed by compute and memory. Citi is becoming increasingly Selective on the group and downgrade NXPI, NVMI, and OLED, Citi's lowest ranked picks in analog, semi caps, and smartphone markets, respectively and lowers tgts on all three.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, October 8, 2026

• CG Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Carlyle to $53 from $64 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets for the asset managers as part of a Q3 preview. Coming out of a stronger Q2, realization activity softened more than expected in Q3, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• KKR Barclays lowered the firm's price target on KKR to $130 from $135 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets for the asset managers as part of a Q3 preview. Coming out of a stronger Q2, realization activity softened more than expected in Q3, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LEVI Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Levi Strauss to $26 from $27 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a Q3 beat as lifestyle category momentum offset direct-to-consumer pressure, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Levi's Q4 results are expected to be pressured due to net tariff refund redeployment costs.

• LEVI BofA lowered the firm's price target on Levi Strauss to $25 from $27 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While "disappointed" with the DTC miss in Q3, the firm is "encouraged" that trends have improved into Q4 as Levi's took quick action to address products and marketing that fell short during back to school season. Following the Q3 report, the firm raised its FY26 EPS view 3c to $1.55 to incorporate the tariff refund, net of reinvestment, but lowered its multiple to reflect the choppier DTC performance.

• AMGN Cantor Fitzgerald raised the firm's price target on Amgen to $440 from $400 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The consensus long thesis depends on recent commercial upside across the core portfolio persisting through 2H, which is expected, though debate remains over whether it will be enough to sustain momentum into MariTide top-line data in 1H27, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BMY Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Carter Gould lowered the firm's price target on Bristol Myers to $53 from $59 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Near-term earnings remain driven by dmilparant and milvexian, with a modestly positive bias into the dmilparant readout but renewed share-price pressure likely thereafter as investor focus shifts to milvexian, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MRK Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Carter Gould raised the firm's price target on Merck to $145 from $120 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Increasing expectations for a 2027 reset to top- and bottom-line estimates will compete with several important ESMO presentations in the prior week, creating a potentially mixed setup, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PFE Cantor Fitzgerald raised the firm's price target on Pfizer to $28 from $27 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. MEVPRO-1 has largely defined the near-term setup, leaving shares dependent on the readout, while questions around longer-term growth and dividend sustainability remain unresolved and the potential impact of the data on either is unclear, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LLY Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Carter Gould raised the firm's price target on Eli Lilly to $1,440 from $1,410 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Eli Lilly faces a high bar given its premium 2027 valuation and elevated consensus expectations, but a modest U.S. Zepbound beat, sustained OUS Mounjaro momentum, and favorable Foundayo developments could support the shares despite pricing headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• NXPI Citi downgraded NXP Semiconductors to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $260, down from $370. The firm says positive estimate revision momentum for the semiconductor industry slowed in Q2 and should see a further moderation in Q3. Citi is becoming "increasingly selective" on the sector and downgraded three names. For NXP, the analyst expects weaker earnings estimate revisions relative to peers given its limited data center sales exposure.
• OLED Citi downgraded Universal Display to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $71, down from $85. The firm says positive estimate revision momentum for the semiconductor industry slowed in Q2 and should see a further moderation in Q3. Citi is becoming "increasingly selective" on the sector and downgraded three names. For Universal Display, the analyst sees further share downside on smartphone market weakness next year.
• WAB Citi analyst Ben Mohr lowered the firm's price target on Wabtec to $338 from $341 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the Q3 report. The firm sees a positive price-cost setup for Wabtec in Q3 , saying the company's tariff mitigants will pick up in the second half of 2027.
• R Citi upgraded Ryder to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $285, up from $283, as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The firm sees strength in Ryder's used vehicle sales and rental segments. The stock's valuation is attractive following the recent selloff, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• XRX Citi downgraded Xerox to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $2.50, down from $3.45. The firm cites free cash flow generation concerns and the stock's valuation for the downgrade. Xerox's path to sustainable revenue growth and stronger free cash flow "remains execution-dependent in a structurally challenged print market," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PNW Citi analyst Ryan Levine opened an "upside 30-day catalyst watch" on Pinnacle West while keeping a Neutral rating on the shares with a $109 price target. Citi believes the company is positioned to benefit from the meaningful data center load growth opportunity in the Arizona West Valley.

• TREX Deutsche Bank analyst Collin Verron upgraded Trex Company to Buy from Hold with a price target of $57, up from $53. Decking demand "appears to be turning the corner," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees potential for Trex to post double-digit revenue growth in the second half of 2026, pushing sales to the high-end of its full-year guidance. The company continues to execute on the new CEO's initiatives, which can yield mid- to high-single digit growth even without end market support, contends Deutsche Bank.

• PLTR Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges upgraded Palantir to Buy from Neutral with a $230 price target, which offers 18% upside. The firm's industry conversations suggest the stock is setting up for another phase of outperformance into 2027. Palantir's total addressable market "may be setting up for another step function change in depth" given the shift to sovereign AI, bespoke applications, and the company's newer verticalization strategy, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman adds that following the stock's underperformance year-to-date, Palantir is trading at a discount to its growth compares.
• FSLR Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on First Solar to $272 from $310 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Investor expectations heading into Q3 earnings are subdued amid macro headwinds, despite favorable year-to-date bookings and demand trends, particularly in utility-scale solar, creating potential upside for First Solar if bookings exceed muted expectations as the stock trades near their valuation low for the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RUN Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Sunrun to $11 from $13 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Investor expectations heading into Q3 earnings are subdued amid macro headwinds, despite favorable year-to-date bookings and demand trends, particularly in utility-scale solar, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ITUB HSBC analyst Carlos Gomez-Lopez downgraded Itau Unibanco to Hold from Buy with a $9.10 price target.
• STZ HSBC last night downgraded Constellation Brands to Hold from Buy with a price target of $135, down from $192. Depletions for Corona Extra were down 5% in Q2 despite the benefit of the FIFA World Cup, the analyst tells investors in a research note. HSBC says that while Pacifico and Victoria were an offset with strong volume, Constellation's declining core brands are concerning. It downgrades the shares pending evidence of a volume recovery.

• RCL Jefferies upgraded Royal Caribbean to Buy from Hold with a price target of $330, up from $305. The firm sees a more favorable net yield setup for Royal in fiscal 2027. It expects estimates to move higher on the Sandals joint venture. This implies greater upside than Royal's headline valuations reflect, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LIND Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Lindblad Expeditions to $32 from $29 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Recent checks suggest the firm's prior pricing and margin assumptions were modestly conservative, prompting updates ahead of Q3 results, the analyst tells investors.

• TNL JPMorgan initiated coverage of Travel + Leisure with a Neutral rating and $70 price target. The shares already reflect the company's "stable and durable" earnings algorithm, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan views view Travel + Leisure as the "blue chip" of timeshare stocks, but says this is balanced by likely limited upside to Street estimates and the backdrop of a mature industry that could face incremental pressures from rising interest rates.
• VAC JPMorgan initiated coverage of Marriott Vacations with an Overweight rating and $125 price target. The company is in the early stages of a turnaround that is "already showing impressive progress," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes Marriott Vacations's investor day on December 9 could be a positive catalyst as it unveils multi-year targets. The company's growth is accelerating as it executes on its strategic priorities, contends the firm.
• HGV JPMorgan analyst Daniel Politzer initiated coverage of Hilton Grand Vacations with a Neutral rating and $39 price target. While the stock trades at a discount to peers, Hilton Grand's operating trends have been soft, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the macro backdrop and interest rate environment "could make things more challenging" for the company.
• HUBS JPMorgan downgraded HubSpot to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $240, down from $268. The firm sees an uncertain timeline for a recovery in the company's revenue growth. HubSpot faces headwinds from a delay in monetization of AI relative to its prior expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says this is more likely to be a medium-term driver of deceleration in HubSpot's growth rather than temporary in nature.
• TWLO JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee raised the firm's price target on Twilio to $335 from $260 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees the company's revenue continuing to surprise positively, led by strong adoption of its messaging platform. However, JPMorgan is cautious on Twilio shares into the Q3 earnings report citing high expectations following the recent rally in the shares.
• LKQ JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on LKQ Corp. to $27 from $30 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm trimmed the company's Q3 estimates on higher fuel and freight costs. It reduced LKQ's organic revenue growth assumptions to reflect affordability pressures and a more selective consumer.

• PARR Mizuho downgraded Par Pacific to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $91, up from $85. The firm increased targets in the refiners group by 40% on average to reflect "higher and longer-lasting" crack assumptions. However, with higher earnings mostly priced into the shares, Mizuho downgraded three names on valuation.
• PSX Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar downgraded Phillips 66 to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $300, up from $220. The firm increased targets in the refiners group by 40% on average to reflect "higher and longer-lasting" crack assumptions. However, with higher earnings mostly priced into the shares, Mizuho downgraded three names on valuation.
• CVI Mizuho raised the firm's price target on CVR Energy to $52 from $29 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm increased targets in the refiners group by 40% on average to reflect "higher and longer-lasting" crack assumptions.
• DINO Mizuho raised the firm's price target on HF Sinclair to $119 from $85 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm increased targets in the refiners group by 40% on average to reflect "higher and longer-lasting" crack assumptions.
• MPC Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar raised the firm's price target on Marathon Petroleum to $457 from $304 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm increased targets in the refiners group by 40% on average to reflect "higher and longer-lasting" crack assumptions.
• PBF Mizuho raised the firm's price target on PBF Energy to $89 from $65 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm increased targets in the refiners group by 40% on average to reflect "higher and longer-lasting" crack assumptions.
• VLO Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Valero to $434 from $300 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm increased targets in the refiners group by 40% on average to reflect "higher and longer-lasting" crack assumptions.

• IT Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Gartner to $182 from $177 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm's contract value estimator for research tracker predicts forex-neutral contract value growth of 4.4% in Q3, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• STZ Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $145 from $158 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Q2 results offered "a few positives relative to negative sentiment and a low bar," says the analyst, who adds that Constellation looks positioned to beat FY27 guidance after a Q2 beat. However, U.S. beer industry challenges continue to limit the long-term growth potential, the analyst added.

• STZ Needham lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $150 from $185 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q2 results. A depletion miss weighed on sentiment post print, though trends reversed following favorable commentary around September trends and a path to the high-end of beer guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Needham adds that its reduced price target reflect disappointment that summer recovery never materialized, though the company's relative performance remains solid and demographic headwinds provide a more credible explanation for the macro-driven weakness.

• FISV Oppenheimer downgraded Fiserv to Perform from Outperform largely given ongoing uncertainty around revenue and earnings growth trajectory. While easier comparisons combined with 2% recurring revenue growth should provide some support for revenue acceleration in Q4 from Q3, a portion of the implied ramp appears dependent on improved execution, the conversion of delayed client implementations and enterprise volume growth, the firm says. Given the company's execution missteps and repeated estimate revisions over the past two years, Oppenheimer remains somewhat cautious on the degree of acceleration embedded in the outlook.
• AUR Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch raised the firm's price target on Aurora Innovation to $16 from $15 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes that the company's second-generation hardware kit is already powering driverless operations, while Fabrinet is ramping kit production toward more than 50/week and Roush is targeting 20 truck upfits/week in October. Aurora has said its planned fleet is fully allocated to exit 2026 with 200 driverless trucks. Oppenheimer will be watching whether completed kits, upfits, and trucks entering customer service rise together through Q4. That conversion will determine whether the company can turn its expanded supply network into fleet growth targeted for 2027.

• LCNB Piper Sandler initiated coverage of LCNB Corp. with a Neutral rating and $20 price target. LCNB is a $2.2B in asset bank that operates 35 locations across Southwest and Central Ohio, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper believes the stock deserves a premium multiple given the bank's "enviable" lower-cost funding profile and greater revenue diversity. It cites the LNCB's slower loan growth prospects and slightly below peer profitability outlook for the Neutral rating.
• GNRC Piper Sandler analyst Dimple Gosai initiated coverage of Generac with an Overweight rating and $303 price target. Generac has built $4B of data center backlog in under a year, and the market is valuing it as a one-time order, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper estimates data center backup as a $16B-$21B per year U.S. market through 2032. It says Generac shares are priced like a residential business.
• STZ Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $125 from $161 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company had strong Q2 top-line momentum, led by Beer, which had impressive shipment growth. However, much of the shipment growth was helped by distributors replenishing inventory, which now appears to be at a healthy level. It expects shipments to be below depletions in Q3, as is typical. Piper expects productivity savings to help offset higher freight costs, operating de-leverage, and higher marketing spend in the second half of 2027.

• FWRD Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Forward Air to $24 from $27 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Entering Q3 less-than-truckload earnings season, the firm says a volume inflection created a more constructive backdrop, but it thinks shipment counts and weight per shipment will be "critical to distinguishing broader demand improvement from changes in freight mix."
• ODFL Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Old Dominion to $230 from $263 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Entering Q3 less-than-truckload earnings season, the firm says a volume inflection created a more constructive backdrop, but it thinks shipment counts and weight per shipment will be "critical to distinguishing broader demand improvement from changes in freight mix."
• SAIA Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Saia to $423 from $438 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Entering Q3 less-than-truckload earnings season, the firm says a volume inflection created a more constructive backdrop, but it thinks shipment counts and weight per shipment will be "critical to distinguishing broader demand improvement from changes in freight mix."
• TFII Stifel lowered the firm's price target on TFI International to $132 from $160 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Entering Q3 less-than-truckload earnings season, the firm says a volume inflection created a more constructive backdrop, but it thinks shipment counts and weight per shipment will be "critical to distinguishing broader demand improvement from changes in freight mix."
• XPO Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan lowered the firm's price target on XPO to $230 from $257 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Entering Q3 less-than-truckload earnings season, the firm says a volume inflection created a more constructive backdrop, but it thinks shipment counts and weight per shipment will be "critical to distinguishing broader demand improvement from changes in freight mix."

• MS TD Cowen analyst R. Scott Siefers last night initiated coverage of Morgan Stanley with a Hold rating and $210 price target. The firm says the market has rewarded Morgan Stanley's transformation with a premium valuation. The shares appropriately capture the company's "many attributes," the analyst tells investors in a research note. TD cites valuation for its Hold rating.
• BAC TD Cowen resumed coverage of Bank of America with a Hold rating and $60 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• C TD Cowen analyst R. Scott Siefers resumed coverage of Citi with a Buy rating and $150 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• JPM TD Cowen resumed coverage of JPMorgan with a Hold rating and $370 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• WFC TD Cowen resumed coverage of Wells Fargo with a Buy rating and $95 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• BNY TD Cowen analyst R. Scott Siefers resumed coverage of BNY Mellon with a Hold rating and $160 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• NTRS TD Cowen resumed coverage of Northern Trust with a Hold rating and $175 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• STT TD Cowen analyst R. Scott Siefers resumed coverage of State Street with a Buy rating and $205 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• CFG TD Cowen resumed coverage of Citizens Financial with a Buy rating and $75 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• FITB TD Cowen resumed coverage of Fifth Third with a Buy rating and $60 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• HBAN TD Cowen resumed coverage of Huntington Bancshares with a Buy rating and $18 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• KEY TD Cowen resumed coverage of KeyCorp with a Buy rating and $23 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• MTB TD Cowen analyst R. Scott Siefers resumed coverage of M&T Bank with a Hold rating and $245 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• PNC TD Cowen resumed coverage of PNC Financial with a Hold rating and $245 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• RF TD Cowen resumed coverage of Regions Financial with a Hold rating and $30 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• TFC TD Cowen analyst R. Scott Siefers resumed coverage of Truist Financial with a Hold rating and $52 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.
• USB TD Cowen resumed coverage of U.S. Bancorp with a Buy rating and $70 price target. TD resumed coverage of 16 large-cap banks, saying the fundamental backdrop "seems about as good as it gets." The firm likes the sector's fundamentals more than the stocks, so it considers selection as "critical." TD's top picks are Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bancshares, State Street, and Wells Fargo.

• CVX UBS analyst Josh Silverstein raised the firm's price target on Chevron to $235 from $220 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
• ACN UBS reiterates a Buy rating and $275 price target on shares of Accenture ahead of the Analyst Day, telling investors in a research note that emerging Alliance revenue doubled as bookings more than tripled in Q4, easing AI fears and supporting the FY27 outlook.

• BLK Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on BlackRock to $1,230 from $1,245 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is reducing EPS estimates and price target by about 1%, mainly on late September 2026 negative market action. Wells remains bullish, as the continued strength in key operating metrics has not been matched by a comparable expansion in the price-to-earnings.
• ALSN Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Allison Transmission to $120 from $137 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm sees a tug of war between macro risks, including energy supply and rising rates, vs. tight Machinery supply amid a transition to a U.S. non-residential construction demand recovery amid a semi-inflection.
• CMI Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Cummins to $760 from $874 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees a tug of war between macro risks, including energy supply and rising rates, vs. tight Machinery supply amid a transition to a U.S. non-residential construction demand recovery amid a semi-inflection.
• HRI Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich lowered the firm's price target on Herc Holdings to $176 from $218 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees a tug of war between macro risks, including energy supply and rising rates, vs. tight Machinery supply amid a transition to a U.S. non-residential construction demand recovery amid a semi-inflection.
• PCAR Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich lowered the firm's price target on Paccar to $122 from $157 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm sees a tug of war between macro risks, including energy supply and rising rates, vs. tight Machinery supply amid a transition to a U.S. non-residential construction demand recovery amid a semi-inflection.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 Employment Trends for September
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for September

• Earnings After the Close: None

• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advanced Goods Trade Balance for August
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AXIL NEOG PENG SAR STZ WS

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for August

• Earnings After the Close: APLD LEVI RELL RGP

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-yr notes

• Earnings After the Close: ODC

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE October crop report
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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