Early Look
Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Futures | Up/Down | % | Last |
Dow | -48.00 | 0.10% | 49,744 |
S&P 500 | -28.25 | 0.38% | 7,408 |
Nasdaq | -228.50 | 0.78% | 29,195 |
It was a new day, but same story on Monday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp eked out new all-time highs as semiconductor chip stocks close at new records with the SOX index now up 15% this month and a whopping 70% YTD as the AI demand/growth story pushes tech sectors higher daily, with no slowing in sight to this point. What remains interesting, the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) moved up nearly 7% back around the 19 level, even though the S&P hit a record high and oil prices jumped, and there were more new lows than highs yet again. There has been no slowing the tech rally so far in 2026, though Nasdaq futures dip overnight (unfamiliar sight these days) after famed “Big Short” investor Michael Burry said in a Substack that the Nasdaq 100 Index is headed toward a dramatic reversal after a “parabolic” surge that has driven technology valuations to unsustainable heights. Also, of note later today inflation data as the April Consumer Price index (CPI) is expected at 8:30 am et where prices are expected to rise again given the stubbornly high energy prices due to the Iran/U.S. conflict. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 324 points to 62,742, the Shanghai Index fell -10 points to 4,214, and the Hang Seng Index dipped -58 points to 26,347. In Europe, the German DAX is lower by -250 points to 24,100, while the FTSE 100 is down -44 points to 10,225. Oil prices rise again overnight, Bitcoin prices fall along with metals, and the dollar bounces ahead of CPI data; stocks lower to start, will it stick this time after a 6-week tech market led rally?
Technology (XLK) was again among leaders in the S&P 500 on Monday, rising for the 8th time in 9 days and the Philly semi (SOX) index hit another record highs above 12,000 today +2.4%. note tech remains boss as @GlobalMktObserv noted on X, “Tech stocks are now THE MARKET: The AI Big 10 now accounts for a RECORD ~40% of the S&P 500's market cap. This covers the Magnificent 7 stocks plus Broadcom, Micron, and AMD, according to BofA. This concentration matches the peak of the Nifty Fifty in 1965 and is also as high as Japan's peak in 1989. It also matches the Tech and Telecom peak at the 2000 Dotcom Bubble.” Interesting stats: @RyanDetrick noted on X, “The S&P 500 is up six weeks in row and >10% during the win streak. This is only the 10th time that has ever happened (since 1950) and it was lower a year later only once (80 yrs ago), with an avg return of 17.1% (about 2x the avg year return).”
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
Economic Calendar for Today
Earnings Calendar:
Other Key Events:
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
Nymex | 3.75 | 101.82 |
Brent | 3.67 | 107.88 |
Gold | -30.00 | 4,698.70 |
EUR/USD | -0.0037 | 1.1745 |
JPY/USD | 0.30 | 157.52 |
10-Year Note | +0.021 | 4.431% |
World News
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
Energy
Financials
Healthcare
Industrials and Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Mid-Morning Look
Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -311.21 | 0.63% | 49,395 |
S&P 500 | -29.45 | 0.40% | 7,383 |
Nasdaq | -149.72 | 0.56% | 26,125 |
Russell 2000 | -40.82 | 1.42% | 2,829 |
U.S. stocks traded lower overnight following another jump in oil prices, as the situation in the Middle East worsens, along with a further rise in Treasury yields on inflation fears and a cautious call from a notable Wall Street figure on technology weighed on stocks prices slightly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coming into the day at record highs. Michael Burry, the investor made Famous in The Big Short, warned on Substack that the Nasdaq 100 Index is headed toward a dramatic reversal after a “parabolic” surge that has driven technology valuations to unsustainable heights. Burry said the market resembles the peak of the dot-com bubble just before it burst, citing in particular the steep jump in chip stocks that has pushed up the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index. Then this morning, April inflation data came in “hot” as CPI rose 0.6% MoM, in line with estimates with inflation pressures heavily concentrated in a few categories as energy contributed 0.27% to headline CPI, led by gasoline (+5.4%), shelter added another 0.21% and food contributed 0.07% (core CPI came in above consensus estimates – more below). Between CPI, the Iran situation and the nonstop rally in tech stocks over the last few weeks, markets are softer on the day. US President Trump described the ceasefire as being on “life support”, after Iran’s counter proposal to the US offer to end the conflict was rejected outright by Trump. Trump claimed that in its formal response, Iran had reneged on a previous verbal agreement to allow the transfer of its enriched uranium to the US, with Iran now only said to be offering the transfer of some of its supplies to a 3rd country. Trump also reiterated his belief of internal divisions within Iran’s leadership, claiming moderate factions were seeking to end the war, but were being blocked by hardline groups.
Economic Data
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 3.52 | 101.59 |
Brent | 3.58 | 107.79 |
Gold | -32.80 | 4,695.90 |
EUR/USD | -0.005 | 1.1732 |
JPY/USD | 0.44 | 157.60 |
10-Year Note | 0.041 | 4.452% |
Sector Movers Today
Stock GAINERS
Stock LAGGARDS
Closing Recap
Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | 56.76 | 0.11% | 49,761 |
S&P 500 | -11.73 | 0.16% | 7,401 |
Nasdaq | -185.92 | 0.71% | 26,088 |
Russell 2000 | -27.82 | 0.97% | 2,842 |
U.S. stocks finished the day lower as the S&P 500 pulled back from record highs, but after falling as much as 1% earlier and the Nasdaq down as much as 2%, both finished well off their lows as investors rotated out of technology stocks for a change and rotated into financials, healthcare, consumer staples and energy which lifted markets! Investors took some profits in tech after a massive record run, especially for the Technology (XLK) space. Continued upward pressure on oil and yields was the easy excuse for more defensive tone in equities with headwinds facing the consumer from the gas price spike (retail sold off sharply on Monday, gas prices above $4.50). A rise in inflation prices in April data also added to the selling pressure with CPI coming in above consensus 9ahead of PPI tomorrow). The Philadelphia semiconductor index (SOX) has been a key driver for the Nasdaq the last few weeks, coming into the day up 70% since the start of the year but saw some notable profit taking, falling over 6% before paring losses to -4%. A combination of a cautious tech comments by Michael Burry (see below) and South Korean stocks coming under some pressure following suggestion by presidential policy chief for a citizens' dividend funded by taxes on AI profits weighed in AI names. Latest batch of corporate earnings also featured more workforce reduction announcements partly related to AI, along with the AI disruption theme.
Inflation data this morning did not help sentiment after the first notable pullback for stocks in some time, as the April consumer prices (CPI) rose 0.6% m/m, in line with economists' forecasts and slowing from 0.9% in March. Energy prices accounted for over 40% of the month-to-month increase. Energy prices were up 18% from a year earlier; within that gasoline was up 28% and fuel oil jumped 54%; Airfare prices rose 21%. Excluding food & energy, prices still rose +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected 9for core) and y/y prices rose on headline (+3.8% vs. +3.7% est.) and core (+2.8% vs. +2.7% est.). The April CPI report is the latest sign that the Fed interest rate cuts that markets were pricing in at the start of the year are no longer a 2026 story, with fears of a hike on the table.
Back to tech – weakness for the first time in a long time with the Nasdaq underperforming, with the biggest winners during its 6-week win streak (semis, optical, AI, data center, Mag 7) were the biggest drags for today. Noteworthy, Michael Burry, the investor made Famous in The Big Short, warned in a post on Substack that the Nasdaq 100 Index is headed toward a dramatic reversal after a “parabolic” surge that has driven technology valuations to unsustainable heights. Burry said the market resembles the peak of the dot-com bubble just before it burst, citing in particular the steep jump in chip stocks that has pushed up the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX) by nearly 70% since the end of March. He said the Nasdaq 100, by his reckoning, is trading at 43 times earnings — well above the implied level of around 30 times — because “Wall Street may be overstating by more than 50% the earnings at our fastest growing, most highly valued companies.” https://tinyurl.com/bde5dmzh . Note @GlobalMktObserv noted on X, “The US tech sector has NEVER been this large: Tech and tech-related stocks now make up ~57% of the total US market cap, a record high. This is 6-7 percentage points higher than at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.”
In addition to the Iran/U.S. headlines, other items to watch this week include producer price index (PPI) inflation data tomorrow (after today’s hotter CPI report) and then US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet Thursday morning in Beijing, according to the White House, for a high-stakes summit that will be dominated by discussions on trade and the war in Iran. The trip marks the first visit by a US president to China in nearly a decade. Earnings however much quieter as of today with 452 S&P 500 companies reported thus far vs 456 LY (per Reuters) this quarter, 85% beat vs 79% LY and the avg beat 25% vs 21% LY, avg miss -23% vs -19% LY while avg yr/yr earnings growth 27% vs 12% LY in what has been a very strong quarter of earnings results.
Economic Data
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 4.11 | 102.18 |
Brent | 3.56 | 107.77 |
Gold | -42.00 | 4,686.70 |
EUR/USD | -0.0043 | 1.1738 |
JPY/USD | 0.44 | 157.60 |
10-Year Note | 0.045 | 4.457% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
Energy, Industrials and Materials
Financials
Biotech & Pharma:
Internet, Media & Telecom
Hardware & Software movers:
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Street Recommendations
Tuesday, May 12, 2026
BARCLAYS
BENCHMARK
BERNSTEIN
BOFA
BTIG
CANACCORD
CANTOR FITZGERALD
CITI
GOLDMAN SACHS
GUGGENHEIM
JEFFERIES
JPMORGAN
MIZUHO
MORGAN STANLEY
OPPENHEIMER
PIPER SANDLER
RAYMOND JAMES
STEPHENS
STIFEL
TRUIST
UBS
WELLS FARGO
Rating abbreviations…
***OP = Outperform
***SP = Sector Perform
***UP = Underperform
***OW = Overweight
***EW = Equal-weight
***UW = Underweight
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Monday May 11th
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