Closing Recap
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -669.28 | 1.34% | 49,452 |
S&P 500 | -108.72 | 1.57% | 6,832 |
Nasdaq | -469.32 | 2.03% | 22,597 |
Russell 2000 | -53.64 | 2.01% | 2,615 |
U.S. stocks were broadly lower on Thursday as additional weakness in technology shares (XLK -2.5%, QQQ -2%) dragged major averages that are heavily weighted in tech. All three of the major indexes on Wall Street were down more than 1% each while the Smallcap Russell 2000 fell more over 2%. Dow Jones Transport Average tumbled to one-week lows, falling as much as -6% led by a sharp decline in trucking stocks (Index had been at record highs this past week – more below on truckers). Precious metals saw broad pullback again with silver, gold, platinum tumbling; no reprieve for Bitcoin as prices down again in mid $65K level (off Oct highs $126K). More strength overseas as the “buy Japan” trade continues to gain momentum after PM Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory increased investor confidence, while the Stoxx 600 index in Europe hit all-time highs. But U.S. markets were led by defensive sectors as Staples, Utilities, REITs saw gains, but big declines in Technology as software stumbled around 3% giving back its recent bounce and Mag 7 declined with AMZN breaking below $200 falling for an 8th straight day. Nasdaq looks to be on track for its 6th straight week of declines in a rough start to the New Year, while Industrials, Materials, Energy and Consumer Staples continue to lead (though took a breather today). Economic data was weaker with softer housing data and jobless claims ahead of tomorrow’s CPI inflation reading while a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report on Wednesday eroded near-term rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve…but right now Wall Street being impacted greatly by AI impacts, see below.
Different U.S. stock sectors seem to be crashing day after day all on renewed AI fears. The "AI Scare Trade" is spreading from sector to sector, crushing stocks across the board. It started with software (IGV, ORCL, CRM), travel/leisure (BKNG, EXPE), learning tools (DUOL, COUR), gaming crushed (U, APP, RBLX), then the last week moved to private credit (APO, BX, CG, OWL), insurance brokers (AJG, MMC), financials (SCHW, MS, LPLA, RJF), real estate services (CBRE, CWK), and today logistics (CHRW, RXO, EXPD) stocks are plunging double digits. The latest trigger was a press release from Algorhythm Holdings claiming its AI platform enables customers to scale freight volumes +300% to +400% without adding headcount. Names previously considered AI winners are now being reassessed for disruption risk as well. Every day, a new sector falls victim to AI disruption fears with buyers not stepping in at this point. Other names like media (DIS, PSKY, NFLX) fell after xAI meeting yesterday - talked about creation of video. The Alts/PE after fears of tax planning/analyzing statements and documents hitting full service names. Gaming fell fears that "world models" like Google's Project Genie will displace game engines. What will tomorrow’s target be remains the question? Or better, at what point do buyers step in with fears of the AI impact being overdone?
Sentiment data: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index slipped to 80.61 from last week's 84.93 (3rd Reading sub-90 since 11/26 and 3rd in last 4 weeks) - 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 was the highest since 7-3-24 - 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 - Last Quarter Average (Q4) of 92.26; 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +0.4% vs +10.7% last week. Bulls fall to 38.5% from 39.7%, Neutrals fall to 23.3% from 31.3%, Bears rise to 38.1% from 29%.
Interesting market stats: 1) @ KobeissiLetter tweets: "This is incredible: 0DTE options now reflect a record ~78% of all daily Nasdaq 100 options volume, up +23 points since 2024. For the S&P 500, 0DTE represents ~65% of daily options volume, up from ~50% in January 2024. Furthermore, 0DTE accounts for a near-record ~60% of options trading volume in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, and the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY. This is followed by the Russell 2000 ETF, $IWM, where 0DTE reflects ~40% of options activity. As a result, 0DTE options now account for a record 55% of volume across these assets, up from 38% in 2024." 2) In another interesting data point, @Bluekurtic tweeted, “28 trading days into 2026, equal-weight S&P 500 $RSP is outperforming cap-weight $SPY by the widest margin at this point in any year at least since 2004. Only 3 prior cases saw over 2% $SPY underperformance: 2008, 2019, and 2022”.
Economic Data
- Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 227,000 from 232,000 last week and vs. consensus 222,000 as the 4-week moving average climbed to 219,500 from 212,500 prior week (previous 212,250); continued claims climbed to 1.862M Jan 31 week (con. 1.850M) from 1.841M prior week (prev 1.844M).
- Jan Existing Home Sales declined -8.4% toa 3.91M annual unit rate (vs. est. 4.18M) and vs Dec 4.27M or +4.4%; January inventory of homes for sale 1.22M units, 3.7 months' worth; the U.S. Jan National median home price for existing homes $396,800, +0.9% from Jan 2025.
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- April gold prices fell -$150.1 or 2.94% to settle at $4,948.50 an ounce in a sharp sell-off in precious metals, while March Silver futures -$8.24 or 9.81% to settle at $75.68 an ounce. Platinum and palladium prices also tumbled lower in a broad decline ahead of tomorrow’s CPI inflation and a bounce in the dollar. The dollar index (DXY) rose slightly back to the 97 level.
- U.S. crude oil futures settle at $62.84/bbl, down $1.79, or 2.77% while Brent crude oil settle at $67.52/bbl, down $1.88, or 2.71%. U.S. natural gas futures climbed 2% on near-record flows to LNG export plants and a federal report showing energy firms pulled more gas than usual out of storage for a second week in a row to meet surging heating demand during a lingering Arctic freeze. Gas futures for March delivery on NYMEX rose 5.8c, or 1.8%, to settle at $3.217 per million British thermal units. After pulling a record 360 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the week ended January 30, energy firms pulled 249 bcf from stockpiles during the week.
- Treasury yields fell as Thursday's "risk-off" trade is spurring a rally in U.S. Treasurys, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a two-month low. The yield on the 10-year note recently hit as low as 4.102%, the lowest intraday level since Dec. 11. It was followed by a strong bond auction as the U.S. sold $25B in 30-year bonds at high yield 4.750%, well below the 4.771% when issued prior as the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.66 (vs. 2.42 prior auction) and primary dealers take 5.88% of U.S. 30-year bond sale, direct 24.18% and indirect 69.94%. The benchmark 10-yr yield fell -8bps to 4.10% down for the 5th time in 6 sessions.
- Raw sugar futures on the ICE exchange hit 13.67 cents per lb. during the session, lowest since October 2020, while white or refined sugar futures , which expires on Friday, closed down 2.9% at $376.10 per metric ton, the lowest level since June 2020. New York cocoa ended down -3.4% at $3,724 a ton, having hit its lowest since October 2023 at $3,717, while London cocoa closed down 4.7% at 2,630 pounds per ton, lowest level since June 2023.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | -1.79 | 62.84 |
Brent | -1.88 | 67.52 |
Gold | -150.10 | 4,948.50 |
EUR/USD | -0.0001 | 1.1860 |
JPY/USD | -0.36 | 152.88 |
10-Year Note | -0.081 | 4.102% |
Sector News Breakdown
Autos:
- In Autos: RACE was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup saying the short thesis on the shares may have played out for now and following selloff post the capital markets day, investors may return to Ferrari for a period of time. BWA was upgraded to Buy from Hold and raise tgt to $82 from $46 saying the strategic entrance into the AI data center market, in their view, is a pivotal shift from being a traditional Tier-1 powertrain supplier to a more diversified multi-industrial entity - a move that warrants a valuation re-rate.
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- In Restaurants: MCD Q4 results included above-consensus EPS and global comp store sales growth as it executed its value strategy and leaned into its marketing capabilities to drive outperformance/share gains; posted Q4 comp sales +5.7%, above est. +3.76%, but trims EPS outlook slightly. Jefferies said their data analysis suggests BROS and BRCB can continue to outperform despite fears of competitive risk. QSR quarterly same-store sales growth of 3.1%, compared with estimates of a 2.73% rise on better EPS, while Burger King U.S. rose 2.6% for the quarter, but missed estimates of a 3.5% rise, though international segment saw comparable sales growth accelerate to 5.8% from 4.9% a year ago and Popeyes chain reported a 4.9% fall in quarterly sales.
- In Footwear: BIRK stuck to its annual growth forecast saying demand in the holiday shopping period was robust, but shares fell as gross profit margin was 57.4%, down from 60.3% last year, hurt by a weaker dollar and a 130-basis-point hit from U.S. tariffs. CROX shares jumped after strong year EPS guidance of $12.88-$13.35, above estimates of $11.89 and topped Q4 sales and profit expectations, while is targeting $100M of cost savings in 2026.
- In Food: UTZ Q4 EPS $0.26 beats $0.25 consensus, revenue $342.2M in line with guidance $342-343M and near FactSet $343.4M consensus; adjusted EBITDA $62.4M within guidance $62-64M and near $63.2M consensus. FY26 guidance: organic net sales growth 2%-3% driven by continued Branded Salty Snacks growth, particularly Power Four Brands, with 53rd week benefiting reported net sales by ~$20M in Q4
Energy
- Coal stocks (ARCH, BTU, HCC) strong early after the Trump administration ordered the Pentagon to purchase electricity from coal plants and announced funding for upgrades to coal facilities.
- Utilities: XLU outperformed in the S&P on broad strength for power stocks; AEP hit record highs after results for Q4 beat citing surge in power demand driven by large hyperscalers and raised its capex $5 billion to $8 billion in additional transmission and generation projects beyond its current $72 billion five-year capital investment plan; EXC shares also outperformed on better results and after projected $41.3B of capital expenditure over the next four years, from $38B previously; also guided year EPS $2.81-$2.91 vs. est. $2.84. ETR was another strong earning result and capex raise as boosted long-term capital expenditure plan by $2 billion to $43B, as power producers rush to meet growing demand from AI-driven data centers.
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
- Large caps banks GS, JPM, BAC, C, WFC, BKand MS which had been holding up well, were a source of funds today seeing broad weakness with declines between 3%-6% today.
- In Alts/Wealth Managers/Brokers: BMO Capital noted weakness in KKR, ARES, OWL, STEP, CG as Ai fear trade hits group – but says it does not mean there is real risk. They said for Alts, concerns have centered on investment exposure to software that will be disrupted by Ai. In Wealth, narratives about disruption are not new, as Robo-advisors were heralded as “the end of the Wm industry” roughly a decade ago. The negative arguments were overblown then, which feels remarkably similar to today. BMO views Ai as a tool that WM firms will leverage to enhance their offerings and create efficiencies, but believe Ai seems unlikely to replace demand for humans.
- Commercial Real Estate stocks declined (CBRE, CWK, SLG, JLL, VNO) their biggest drops since 2020 on fears AI tools could automate parts of leasing & deal workflows & eventually pressure fee-heavy, labor-intensive models.
- In Crypto: no notable bounce for Bitcoin, Ethereum, other coins or Bitcoin leveraged stocks as remains under pressure the last few months after seeing a 50% drawdown from record highs above $126K in October for Bitcoin. COIN was double downgraded from Buy to Sell at Monness and cutting its estimates again as assumption of a steady recovery over course of C26 were foolish + facile given typical length and Magnitude of crypto bear markets. Monness now models softness through 1H26 and C26/C27 below Street).
- Human resources: PAYC reported slightly better Q4 results, finishing 2025 on a positive note, with improvements around retention and client count growth, and sales capacity expansion, but shares fell after issued rather underwhelming 2026 recurring growth outlook of 7.5%, a considerable deceleration from the 11.3% exiting Q4.
REITs:
- CBRE forecasts annual profit above Wall Street estimates, citing solid momentum in leasing and facilities management amid rapid data center expansion; sees 2026 core earnings per share between $7.30 and $7.60, midpoint of which is above analysts' expectations of $7.36 per share.
- GTY reported a 4Q25 AFFO beat (+$0.01 vs. consensus) and affirmed its previously announced FY26 AFFO guidance (+2.5% y/y), with strong 4Q25 investment activity of $135M at an initial cash yield of 7.9%. Notably, the committed pipeline increased to $100M, and GTY was active in the equity capital markets.
- IRM forecasts 2026 revs $7.63B-$7.78B vs. analysts' avg. estimate of $7.60B and expects adj. AFFO between $5.69 and $5.79 per share for 2026 vs. estimates of $5.73 per share.
- IRT initial '26 CFFO guidance missed cons. by ~4% at the midpoint. SS Rev. growth guidance of 1.7% at the midpoint is stable vs. 2025, and being driven by accelerating lease rate growth, higher occupancy, lower bad debt, and higher other income.
- KIM Q4 net income per share fell yr/yr, while FFO per share rose; achieved record occupancy levels, with small shop occupancy at 92.7%; anticipates same property NOI growth of 2.5% to 3.5% in 2026
Biotech & Pharma:
- BBIO reports positive phase 3 topline results for oral infigratinib with the first statistically significant improvements in Body proportionality in achondroplasia (shares of ASND, BMRN declined following the data). BBIO's success signals intensified competition as BMRN currently dominates the market with Voxzogo, its approved daily injectable therapy, which is a key revenue driver. Shares of ASND are lower as it is advancing TransCon CNP, a once-weekly injectable candidate in late-stage development.
- HIMS shares declined for its 10th straight day of losses
- MCRB is pausing additional investment in the SER-155 (allo-HSCT) program and will shift its operational focus to high-value earlier-stage pipeline programs while continuing to seek funding for the SER-155 Phase 2 study.
- NBIX FY26 guide and 4Q25 revenues for Ingrezza were in-line, with the midpoint of the $2.7B-$2.8B FY26 guide lining up with consensus's $2.75B, and 4Q25 revenues of $658M bracketed by consensus$659M; rev beat driven by impressive performance for Crenessity with $135.3M sales exceeding $117.0M consensus.
- NKTR 6.6M share Secondary priced at $58.00.
- NVO upgraded from Underperform to Hold at Jefferies after consensus has cut '27E sales 20% and profits 30%, and with a sharp move downwards in cons recommendations, which neutralizes their long-standing Underperform.
- SNY ousted CEO Paul Hudson on Thursday, ending a six-year tenure and appointed Belén Garijo, the head of German drugmaker Merck KGaA as new chief executive
- VERX was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies saying 4Q results and the 2026 outlook were just ok while the deterioration in the underlying KPIs seen in 4Q25 leaves little confidence in the near-term outlook.
- VKTX shares rallied after announcing oral VK2735 to Advance into Phase 3 for Obesity in 3Q26. This trial will provide data to potentially further differentiate VK2735 as the only dual agonist molecule with the potential to dose monthly or to allow transition from subcutaneous to oral administration for weight maintenance.
- WST Q4 revs $805M topped est. $794.8M while forecasts 2026 adj EPS of $7.85-$8.20, above analysts' estimates of $7.78 and annual revenue to be between $3.22B-$3.28B vs. estimates of $3.25B.
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- In Managed care: HUM was downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital and slash tgt to $189 from $322 as believes stronger-than-expected membership growth through AEP may put Humana's Medicare Advantage book at risk for cost pressure above the company's initial 2026 MCR guidance.
- In Medical Research: shares of ICLR tumbled after saying it is investigating accounting issues related to how it recorded revenue from 2023-25; early findings show revenue for 2023-2024 may have been overstated by under 2% each year; said it is delaying its Q4/2025 earnings until April 30 and has withdrawn its 2025 financial forecast.
- Medical Equipment: INSP shares fell as Q425 revenue was consistent with the prelim range provided in mid-January but lowered its 2026 revenue outlook to reflect recent changes in facility reimbursement, as well as evolving Dynamics around physician reimbursement. BAX shares fell as Q4 EPS were below expectations ($0.44 vs $0.54 est) and guided FY26 below the street ($1.85 - $2.05 vs $2.27 est) along with FY26 Revenue growth +flat to 1% y/y vs FactSet +2.0%. NVCR shares surge as the FDA approved Novocure's Optune pax, a first-of-its-kind device for treatment of adult patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer.
- Healthcare Technology: OSCR was upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James with $18 price target saying the stock's relative valuation is attractive at current levels as the company's margins recover across the Affordable Care Act exchange market.
- Medical Supplies: BRKR Q4 adj EPS of $0.59 missed the $0.65 estimate on better revs $977.2M vs. est. $960.8M and issued better 2026 rev guidance.
- Animal Health sector: ZTS q4 adj EPS and revenues topped consensus as revs at its companion-animal segment increased 2% to $1.60B and issued higher annual EPS outlook of $7.00-$7.10 topping the $6.80 consensus as demand across its companion-animal portfolio and resilient international markets helped offset softer US trends
Industrials & Materials
- Transports: FDX said at its annual investor day that adj Q3 EPS would top Wall Street's average estimate and set growth targets through its fiscal year ending in May 2029 including consolidated revenue of $98 billion, operating income of $8 billion and an operating margin of 8%.
- Trucking stocks CHRW, LSTR, EXPD, JBHT, KNX, RXO, WERN were weak on Ai fears if you can believe it. The latest trigger was a press release from Algorhythm Holdings claiming its AI platform enables customers to scale freight volumes +300% to +400% without adding headcount. There was also news late yesterday that U.S. Transportation Secretary Duffy issued a final rule to stop unqualified foreign drivers from obtaining licenses to drive commercial trucks and buses. Separately, @tomik99 noted on X, “In 6 weeks, a working Freight Management System for air & ocean forwarders built on @OpenMercato. Built in weeks, not years – ~7% of traditional cost, – AI agents at the core – Zero license fees, – Zero vendor lock-in.” showing again the potential power of AI.
- Industrials: CGNX shares jumped as reported adj. 4Q25 EPS of $0.27, which beat consensus of $0.22 as revenues of $252M increased 10% y/y and were above consensus of $239M. Revenue was also above the midpoint of the Company’s prior guidance of $230M-$245M, including the one-time benefit.
- Satellite/Drone: ASTS shares fell after the satellite communications firm announces pricing private offering of $1B 2.25% convertible bonds (CBs) due Apr 15, 2036and issued about 6.3M shares in concurrent direct offerings to repurchase $300 mln of its existing CBs due 2032.
- Aerospace & Defense: HII was upgraded to Neutral at Bank America and raised tgt to $400 from $300 as expects the vast amount of money flowing into the shipbuilding industry to continue to bolster HII and government support for the maritime industrial base to alleviate some labor and supply chain challenges. HWM reported a Q4 adj EPS beat and guided Q1 profit above estimates ($1.09-$1.11 vs. est. $1.02), citing strong aerospace demand.
- In Lithium: ALB Q4 results beat on healthy volumes and progress on costs while improved Lithium prices supported results in Q4 and point to an encouraging outlook for '26 based on the current level of ~$20/kg.
Internet, Media & Telecom
- Media & Internet: GOOGL released a major upgrade to Gemini 3 Deep Think in close partnership with scientists & researchers to tackle research challenges; said Deep Think is now available in Gemini app for google AI ultra subscribers and available via Gemini API to select researchers. MELI was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan noting 1) Shopee increased its take rates last week, signaling a more benign competitive environment, 2) it no longer see material downside to consensus estimates for 2026/’27, and 3) it believes MELI should be able to sustain a good pace of growth in Brazil in Q425. Media names NFLX, WBD, DIS, PSKY weak on xAI meeting yesterday: - talked about creation of video. AMZN fell for an 8th straight day today.
- Telecom & Cable: VZ new 52-week highs, up a 4th straight day and up 11 out of last 12 days as telco/Cable extending recent gains, while CMCSA came into the day with a 7 day winning streak. Reuters reported CMCSA’s owned Sky's $2.2B ITV deal talks have slowed, three sources note, citing changing Media landscape per Reuters
Hardware & Software movers:
- Networking & Communications: CSCO quarterly revs exceeded expectations, driven by Networking growth of 30%, well above consensus of 14.5%, likely benefiting from Ai Revenue, but posted quarterly adjusted gross margin below market estimates (67.5% for Q2 vs 68% est.) as strong hardware growth, higher Cloud mix, and a 400% YoY hike in memory pricing is pushing gross margins down 200bps sequentially as per Bank America.
- Software: HUBS reported Q4 revenue 2% above the Street with EBIT margin roughly 40basis points higher and guided 2026 revenue 2% above consensus, while net recurring revenue expanded to 105%, and solid margin improvement, particularly in GAAP as they reduce SBC.
- IT Services & Consulting: FSLY shares surged on beat and raise quarter as network and Security revenue accelerated for their fourth consecutive quarters each, with both segments showing the ability to Land customers Independent of the other and showing the ability to cross-sell between the two.
- AI Infrastructure sector: neocloud company NBIS said it is planning a new 240-megawatt data centre in Béthune, France, near Lille, that will be one of Europe’s largest when it is finished; they said remain on track to end the year with ARR of $7-9B; Capital expenditures ballooned to about $2.1 billion in Q4, compared with just $416 million last year for GPU and data center expansion.
- Software Advertising/Gaming: APP delivered a clean beat & raise despite narrative volatility as Q425 EBITDA was MSD above Street, Q1 revenue guidance +5-7% q/q was above the year-ago driven by both a healthy Gaming market and e-com trends and mgmt addressed competitive threats on the demand-side (META) and supply-side (Cloud X) which have weighed heavily on shares this past week (along with U, RBLX as well).
- Data Centers: EQIX introduced robust 2026 and Q1 guidance, citing demand for its digital infrastructure, even as Q4 earnings and revenue fell short of the Wall Street consensus estimates; Recurring revenue came in 1.3% better than expected, while total revenue missed by 1.5%, due to a shift in timing for a large JV-related deal.
- In Storage (NTAP, NTNX, PSTG, RBRK): Oppenheimer lowered estimates across sector saying they surveyed 30 storage value-added-resellers (VARs) across North America and Europe. Their channel checks suggest overall IT spend on Storage was relatively stable for 4Q25. However, as we look to CY26 growth expectations, the outlook from VARs has deteriorated materially compared to their growth outlook for CY25 last quarter.
- Hardware/PC: PC names were lower (DELL, HPQ) after overnight news from Lenovo Group warning about mounting pressure on PC shipments as a worsening memory-chip shortage grips the industry. Chief Executive Yang Yuanqing told Reuters after the company released third-quarter results that the world's largest PC maker has raised prices to offset surging memory costs, while accelerating its push into the fast-growing Ai inference market. Bank America said rising memory costs pose measurable earnings risks for major PC makers (DELL, HPQ), but the impact on AAPL Apple should remain limited as now expects 2026 PC units to fall 8% y/y, vs. prior view of flat growth.
Semiconductors:
- In Memory sector: shares of SNDK, MU, WDC rise as Kioxia shares rose in Japan on better-than-expected operating income, reflecting a surge in NAND flash memory prices and strong demand for the data storage needed for AI; a wide range of customers are scrambling to secure NAND chip inventories, causing prices to surge as demand overwhelms supply, w/ some DC operators asking about contracts that would cover 2027 and 2028.
- Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) said it had started shipping its most advanced HBM4 chips to unnamed customers, as it tries to narrow the gap with rivals in supplying critical parts for Nvidia (NVDA) AI accelerators. Samsung had been slow in responding to the advanced HBM chip market, lagging behind rivals, including SK Hynix, in supplying previous-generation HBM chips.
- ADI was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raised tgt to $375 from $315 saying the company has the highest industrial exposure within the analog group "by far" and a strong correlation between its sales growth and the Purchasing Managers' Index.