Early Look

Monday, August 3, 2026

U.S. futures are looking at a strong open after a positive Friday where the S&P 500 gained 1.05%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.59%, and the Dow climbed 1.04%. However, returns for July were mixed as the S&P 500 fell -0.13%, the Nasdaq declined -3.2%, and the Dow climbed 0.32%. By falling in the final minutes on Friday back below 7,500, the S&P 500 (SPX) dipped into negative territory for the month and snapped a streak of 11 straight years with positive returns for July. Investors head into another busy earnings week as well as a busy week of data with monthly jobs data headlining on Friday, while ISM Manufacturing out later this morning, with June JOLTS tomorrow, ADP private payrolls and ISM Services on Wednesday. Last week was dominated by big tech earnings with MSFT, AMZN shares jumping on results while AAPL shares fell along with central banks as the Fed, BOE and BOJ all maintained interest rates, and the Japanese yen fell from 40-year highs amid intervention.

Signs of de-escalation at the weekend pushed oil prices lower after President Trump said late Sunday night he had decided to hold off what he called the ‘biggest attack since World War II’ at the request of allies. A deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be close, Trump noted, also stating that US would continue to pursue a path to end Iran's nuclear program. Meanwhile, Iran said there were no talks under way with the United States and no plans for any meetings, contradicting U.S. President Donald Trump comments.

Prior, President Trump said Saturday night “The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II. Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE Hormuz STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s Nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL. The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -607 points to 63,754, the Shanghai Index fell -22 points to 3,809, and the Hang Seng Index rose 124 points to 26,009. In Europe, the German DAX is surging 388 points to 26,017, while the FTSE 100 is down a few points to 10,864. The Japanese yen weakens further after falling from 40-year highs last week, down below 157 vs the dollar.

Treasury yields are pulling back after surging last week where the Benchmark 10-yr yield was up 8.1bps Friday to end at 4.743%, rising 32bps for the month of July at highest yield since January 2025 (up 59bps YTD); the 30-yr yield rose 6.8bps to 5.274%, up 37bps in July and highest yield since July 2007 (up 44bps YTD). The shorter term 2-yr yield rose 6.2bps to 4.289%, up 15.1bps this month, rising 5 straight months (up 82bps YTD).

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 276.97 points, or 0.53%, to 52,485.03
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 251.68 points, or 1.00%, to 25,373.85
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -14.76 points, or 0.50% to 2,931.34

• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending for June
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for July

• Earnings After the Close: ADTN ADUS AEIS AESI ALG ALSN AMRC ANDE ARE BLZE BSM BWXT CBT CLPT CLX CRGY CSR CSWC CTOS DDD DORM EVER FANG GBDC GPOR HSTM ICHR INSP IRT IVT JAZZ JELD JXN MATX MED NJR OKE ON OPAD OTTR PAY PLTR POWL RAIL SBAC SBRA SIBN SITC SNAP STOK TDW TKO TTI UCTT UTL VERX VNO VNOM VOYG VRTX VVX WGS SHR WMB

• NY Fed President John Williams says he "strongly" supported last week's policy decision and reaffirms the reaction function he sketched out last month. He expects inflation to decline but says "it would absolutely be appropriate" to raise rates if inflation doesn't.

• GameStop (GME) agreed to privately exchange approximately $1.4 billion of outstanding convertible senior notes for Class A common stock; transaction includes $400 million of 2030 notes and $1.0 billion.
• Tesla (TSLA) sales in Spain &###127466;&###127480; plunged 81.3% YoY to just 131 vehicles in July. However, sales rose 19.8% YoY during the first seven months of 2026, while Spain’s broader electrified vehicle market grew 34.9%.

• Ingersoll-Rand (IR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel and raised tgt to $101 from $84 saying they see reasons to be constructive on the shares post the Q2 report. Ingersoll's longer cycle orders are progressing, its volume leverage and pricing are leading to margin expansion, and it has the financial flexibility to add value inorganically.
• Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) declared quarterly cash dividend, and authorizes new stock repurchase program for up to 20M shares.
• Prysmian (PRYMY) agreed to acquire U.S.-based electrical products maker Atkore (ATKR) for $95 per share in cash, giving the company an implied enterprise value of around $3.8 billion. The offer represents a roughly 23% premium to Atkore's 90-day volume-weighted average share price as of July 31, Prysmian said. Atkore generated revenue of $2.85 billion and an EBITDA of $386 million in FY25.
• Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) was upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo while cuts tgt to $73 from $82 as sees limited downside land cites leading behind-the-meter power execution, three hyperscaler customers, and expanding capabilities supporting high-value integrated solutions.
• Southern Company (SO) announces offerings of $650M in aggregate Principal amount of convertible Senior notes due December 15, 2027, and $1.5B in aggregate Principal amount of convertible Senior notes due September 15, 2029.
• SpaceX (SPCX) faces lock-up selling pressure ahead of insider share unlocks; Insider lock-up expirations begin on August 6, with approximately 20–30% of locked shares initially becoming eligible for sale. Staggered unlocks are expected to increase the tradable float to roughly 40% by December 2026.
• T1 Energy (TE) signed an agreement to supply Clearway Energy Group with 641 MW of solar modules manufactured at its G1_Dallas facility using domestically produced cells from its G2_Austin fab; contract value and delivery timeline not disclosed; expects the first 2.1 GW phase of G2_Austin to begin cell production in Q1’27 and plans to offer solar modules with more than 60% domestic content next year.

• BioNTech (BNTX) said that Sobi's CEO Guido Oelkers will succeed Ugur Sahin as its chief executive from February 1, 2027, at latest.
• Integer (ITGR) to be acquired by KKR in transaction valued at approximately $5.7B as Integer stockholders to receive $127 per share in cash.
• Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) and Indivior Pharmaceuticals (INDV) to merge, creating a diversified CNS biopharmaceutical leader with significant scale; combined entity to be named Supernus, Inc. and Jack Khattar to serve as President and CEO; stockholders will get 1.5401 common shares of Indivior Pharmaceuticals for each share of Supernus Pharmaceuticals they own.

• Sony’s (SONY) Spider-Man: Brand New Day delivered the biggest movie opening of 2026 and one of the strongest debuts in Hollywood history. The superhero film generated $355 million in domestic ticket sales during its opening weekend, more than doubling the previous 2026 record set by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. It also earned $572 million internationally, bringing its global debut to $927 million.
• Warner Music Group (WMG) announced that Armin Zerza, CFO & COO, has decided to step down from his role for personal reasons, effective immediately. He will remain available to the company through the end of the fiscal year.
• Goldman Sachs added ASML, Sika and Puig to its European Director's Cut Conviction List and removed Schneider Electric and Knorr-Bremse from the list.

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, August 03, 2026

U.S. stocks off to a strong start to the week and new month, putting the S&P 500 (SPX) monthly loss behind it (fell the first time in July in 12 years, slipping -0.12%), as strength in mega cap tech and software helping the Nasdaq outperform rising over 1%, with AMZN hitting new all-time highs and big rebounds in hyperscalers like META, MSFT, GOOGL and ORCL. The easing of Treasury yields this morning amid a sharp pullback in oil prices is giving a boost to Small cap stocks (IWM) as well, which fell the most on Friday amid the spike in yields. Shares of interest rate sensitive sectors such as homebuilders, mortgage related names, and dividend paying sectors like REITs seeing strength early amid the pullback of Treasury yields. A good start to the week ahead another onslaught of corporate earnings )in what has been a stellar Q2 of results) and lots of jobs data.

AI stocks were mixed last week after GOOGL, AMZN and META all raised 2026 capex guidance, while MSFT maintained its spending outlook. The bigger picture remains that huge AI investment pledges are harder to swallow for investors when borrowing costs are rising. With 10-year Treasury yields hovering around 4.7% and the 30-year yield near a 19-year high. That was partially addressed this weekend as crude prices fell sharply after President Trump said the U.S. would begin talks with Iran aimed at limiting Tehran's nuclear program and restoring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell more than 5%, while West Texas Intermediate dropped about 6%, reversing part of last month's rally that followed renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and attacks on tankers near Oman. Lower oil prices could ease inflation concerns. Trump stated that he postponed the impending attack at the explicit request of key American allies in the Gulf region.

Oil prices fall with WTI crude -6.15% or $5.20 to drop back below $80 per Barrel and Brent Crude falls -4.7% to $83.80 amid signs of de-escalation this weekend pushing oil prices lower after President Trump said late Sunday night he had decided to hold off what he called the ‘biggest attack since World War II’ at the request of allies. A deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be close, Trump noted, also stating that US would continue to pursue a path to end Iran's nuclear program. Meanwhile, Iran said there were no talks under way with the United States and no plans for any meetings, contradicting U.S. President Donald Trump comments.

Several M&A headlines in the Healthcare industry today including: 1) BMY shares rose after media reports they held preliminary talks about a possible merger with AZN that would create one of the world's biggest Pharmaceutical companies with a combined value of nearly $400B; 2) ITGR to be acquired by KKR in $5.7B deal (which follows press reports Friday that sent shares +20%) as ITGR confirmed this morning that it will be acquired in a $5.7B enterprise value deal, with ITGR shareholders receiving $127/share; 3) SUPN/INDV announced a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger; 4) LNTH to be acquired by Curium for up to $114.50 (breakdown for $102.50 cash/share and up to an additional $12 via a CVR).

• June construction spending fell -0.1% (consensus +0.2%) to $2.167 trln, vs May unchanged (prev +0.1%) while June private construction spending -0.1%, public spending unchanged.
• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI revised slightly higher to 53.9 in July from the preliminary estimate of 53.8, matching June's reading and signaling another month of solid expansion in factory activity.

• Aerospace & Defense: SPCX faces lock-up selling pressure ahead of insider share unlocks; Insider lock-up expirations begin on August 6, with approximately 20–30% of locked shares initially becoming eligible for sale. Staggered unlocks are expected to increase the tradable float to roughly 40% by December 2026. NOC signed two multi-year framework agreements worth more than $3B with the U.S. Department of War and LMT to accelerate missile interceptor production; PSN was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jefferies saying the recent stock reaction reflects a series of PR blunders dating back to the confidential program, through the FAA loss, and now to 3 items in what was supposed to be a clean Q2. LDOS authorizes new stock repurchase program for up to 20M shares.
• Chinese EV auto delivery data out for the month: BYD was the top seller, with 419,211 units sold last month, up 22% y/y as exports more than doubled last month to 180,538 new-energy vehicles, a category that includes EVs and hybrids. NIO also posted a strong performance, with its July vehicle deliveries surging 71% y/y to 35,934. Geely Automobile's sales for the month rose 5.0% to 250,161 vehicles. XPeng (XPEV) delivered 38,027 vehicles in July, up 4.0% on year. Great Wall Motor's July new-energy vehicle sales totaled 34,651, inching up from 34,593 a year earlier. Li Auto (LI) was among outliers posting softer July sales. It booked 30,468 vehicle sales in July, down -0.9% on year.

• ATKR +28%; after Prysmian (PRYMY) agreed to acquire the U.S.-based electrical products maker for $95 per share in cash, giving the company an implied enterprise value of around $3.8 billion. Atkore generated revenue of $2.85B and an EBITDA of $386M in FY25.
• BABA +5%; after the company unveiled what it said is its largest and most capable artificial-intelligence model, the Qwen3.8-Max, which is not far behind in size when compared with an offering from domestic rival Moonshot Ai launched last month.
• BOW +10%; after American Family Mutual Insurance Company said it will acquire the company in an all-cash deal valued at about $1.2 billion, expanding the insurer's commercial insurance business. American Family, which already owns a stake in Bowhead, will pay $34 per share for the remaining shares.
• CNH +16%; after Q2 revs $4.8B topped $4.38B estimate and raised its FY adj EPS outlook to $0.41-$0.46 from prior view $0.35-$0.45 on cost cuts, leaner production & strong construction equipment demand.
• SUPN +5%; rises after merging with INDV as combined entity to be named Supernus, Inc. and Jack Khattar to serve as President and CEO; stockholders will get 1.5401 common shares of Indivior Pharmaceuticals for each share of Supernus Pharmaceuticals they own.
• TE +4%; signed an agreement to supply Clearway Energy Group with 641 MW of solar modules manufactured at its G1_Dallas facility using domestically produced cells from its G2_Austin fab.

• AZN -7%; on reports held preliminary talks about a possible merger with BMY that would create one of the world's biggest Pharmaceutical companies with a combined value of nearly $400B, a person familiar with the situation told Reuters https://tinyurl.com/2bnv9ewt
• CRCL -6%; downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley and cut its price target to $38 from $106 saying they expect weaker USDC reserve income as stablecoin balances decline and revenue shifts toward lower-margin transaction activity.
• GME -12%; as agreed to privately exchange approximately $1.4 billion of outstanding convertible senior notes for Class A common stock; transaction includes $400 million of 2030 notes and $1.0 billion
• LI -3%; after the Chinese EV maker reported July deliveries of 30,468 vehicles, down 0.9% Y/Y and ~15% lower sequentially, as a temporary headlight supply disruption reduced Li i6 production by about 4,000 units in the second half of the month.
• PLOW -7%; after Q2 revs rose 10% Y/y to $214.6M missing the $219.5M estimate and net Income fell to $25.4M from $26M Y/y, though adj EPS of $1.22 topped consensus.
• SRAD -18%; after Q2 revs rose 19% Y/y to EU378M missing consensus of EU440M and reported a net loss of EU3.5M, or EU0.01 per Class A share, compared with net Income of EU49M, or EU0.17 y/y.
• USO -6%; as oil prices fell -$4 a barrel after U.S. President Trump held off a fresh attack on Iran as he sought a quick deal that would halt Tehran's nuclear ambitions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Closing Recap

Monday, August 03, 2026

U.S. stocks were on a mission today, with major averages opening in positive territory and barely downticked throughout the entire trading day with major averages melting higher in broad fashion. Seven of eleven S&P sectors closed higher with Energy (XLE) the laggard down over -1% on falling oil prices as the US restrained from further Iran attacks as talks were back on, while Technology (XLK) +1.75% and Communications (XLC) +2.9% were the leaders along with Industrials (XLI); defensive Healthcare and Staples slid slightly. With earnings in mega tech concluding last week (AAPL, META, AMZN, MSFT and GOOGL the week prior), markets put the pedal to the metal buying them on Monday with all but APPL rising between 4%-6% today. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose to around 11,4375, bouncing off earlier lows of 10,922 and reclaimed its 100dma resistance of 11,080 in strong semi recovery off lows, while software also rallied. The AI trade play was back with data centers, opticals, semis, neoclouds, and power/colling names all surging. A pullback in Treasury yields from 52-week highs reached last Friday also helped market sentiment. With today’s rally the S&P 500 moved 100 points off the lows of the day (above 7,500 and topping 7,600) and is within 10 points of 6/2 record of 7,620.90 (just shy of record close of 7,609.99 which was also on 6/2/26) while the Nasdaq and Russell 200 remained strong all day as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes +690 points higher and officially posts its highest close on record as all-time highs are back. Notable stats: @Barchart noted on X, “Stock Market reaches most expensive valuation in history after the Warren Buffett Indicator hits 241%, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2022 Bear Market.” Also, @bespokeinvest noted on X, "The S&P 500 is on pace for its best start to a month (+1.5%) since it gained 2.6% on the first trading day of October 2022."

So far Q2 earnings tracking near record: Deutsche Bank noted despite the record-high bar set by the bottom-up analyst consensus (26%), Q2 earnings are beating strongly and robustly. The share of companies beating (87%) is at a record high, while the size of the aggregate beat (7%) remains strong, driven by both sales and margins. The analyst consensus has continued to upgrade forward earnings in H2 2026 and 2027 in contrast to typical cuts at this Stage. S&P 500 earnings growth is on track to accelerate sharply from 25% in Q1 to 33% in Q2, one of the highest ever outside of recoveries from recessions. Growth for the median company is up to 13.8%. Exceptional earnings growth is being driven by both sales growth at a 25-year high and margins rising to a new record. Earnings growth is very broad based. All sectors are on track to deliver positive growth, with 8 of the 11 tracking in the double digits and 7 seeing an acceleration.

• June construction spending fell -0.1% (consensus +0.2%) to $2.167 trln, vs May unchanged (prev +0.1%) while June private construction spending -0.1%, public spending unchanged.
• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI revised slightly higher to 53.9 in July from the preliminary estimate of 53.8, matching June's reading and signaling another month of solid expansion in factory activity.

• Precious metals a “no show” as December gold prices fall -$16.50/oz, or -0.40%, to settle at $4,090.50 while September silver rose +$0.07/oz, or +0.12%, to settle at $57.86as metals did not participate with the mass rally on Wall Street today despite the easing of yields and oil.

• Treasury yields pulled back after surging last week/month. After the Benchmark 10-yr yield rose 8.1bps Friday to end at 4.743% (rising 32bps for the month of July at highest yield since January 2025 - up 59bps YTD, it fell 6 bps today to 4.687%. The 30-year yield fell -4bps to 5.23% after settling at 5.274% Friday (up 37bps in July and highest yield since July 2007 (up 44bps YTD).
• The U.S. Treasury said it expects to borrow $739B in the third quarter, $68B more than it projected in May, as lower projected cash flows were only partly offset by a higher-than-assumed starting cash balance. Stripping out the benefit of that larger starting cushion, the increase in borrowing needs is $87B above the May estimate. The department's quarterly refunding statement assumes a cash balance of $950B at the end of September. For the fourth quarter, Treasury projected borrowing of $628B, based on a year-end cash balance of $850B.

• Food sector: TSN reported in-line Q3 EPS of $0.99 on lighter than expected sales of $13.87B, below the $14.12B consensus and lowered its annual profit forecast to operating income of $2.1B-$2.3B from prior view of $2.2B-$2.4B and narrowed its year sales view to +2.5%-3.5% from prior +2%-4% rise previously but was below Wall Street consensus for a 4.3% rise.
• Restaurant sector: WING was downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein (tgt to $155 from $220) saying they do not see near-term catalysts that could help traffic recovery. Further, Bernstein believes consensus numbers are too elevated for the next 12 months.
• Homebuilders (BZH, LEN, KBH, PHM, MTH, TOL) saw early strength as Treasury yields slipped off last week high closing levels (10-yr down from 4.73% to 4.68%), while mortgage related stocks/companies also saw early strength (RKT, ZG).

• Gaming & Casinos (WYNN, LVS, MLCO, MGM): Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that July 2026 gross Gaming revenue (GGR) fell -8.4% year-on-year to MOP 20.26B (about US$2.51B. This was a sequential improvement of about 9.4% from June’s MOP 18.52B (which had fallen 12.1% year-on-year). Year-to-date (January–July) GGR reached about MOP 147.16B, up 4.4% from the same period in 2025. SRAD shares fell after Q2 revs rose 19% y/y to EU378M missing consensus of EU440M and reported a net loss of EU3.5M, or EU0.01 per Class A share, compared with net income of EU49M, or EU0.17 per share, a year earlier.
• Auto sector: TSLA sales in Spain 🇪🇸 plunged 81.3% YoY to just 131 vehicles in July. However, sales rose 19.8% YoY during the first seven months of 2026, while Spain’s broader electrified vehicle market grew 34.9%. STLA was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS saying its U.S. turnaround thesis hasn't materialized as expected, despite a solid market backdrop while growing competitive pressure in EE and the Third Engine regions additionally weighs on the group AOI trajectory towards very ambitious 2028 business plan targets.
• Lodging and travel: shares of MAR tumbled -7% for one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 after the hotel chain said RevPAR — a key lodging metric that tracks average daily rate and occupancy — in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) fell over 5% as an increase in Europe was outweighed by a 43% decline in the Middle East. Forecast third-quarter profit below Wall Street expectations on Monday as softer demand in the Middle East hurt hotel room revenue,

• Utility & Solar sector: SO announces offerings of $650M in aggregate Principal amount of convertible Senior notes due December 15, 2027, and $1.5B in aggregate Principal amount of convertible Senior notes due September 15, 2029.

• Insurance sector: American Family Mutual Insurance Company said it will acquire BOW in an all-cash deal valued at about $1.2 billion, expanding the insurer's commercial insurance business. American Family, which already owns a stake in Bowhead, will pay $34 per share for the remaining shares

• FinTech: UPST posted July 2026 origination volume of $1.4 billion across 27.4 origination days, implying $51 million per day. Upstart Macro Index was 1.5 on Aug. 3, up from 1.49 on July 8, a 0.67% increase. UMI at 1.5 implies default risk about 50% above normal, versus about 49% previously.

• ALT initiates Performa phase 3 trial of pemvidutide in patients with MASH; says 52-week data readout from Performa phase 3 trial anticipated in 2029.
• BNTX said that Sobi's CEO Guido Oelkers will succeed Ugur Sahin as its chief executive from February 1, 2027, at latest.
• LLY’s olomorasib receives U.S. FDA's breakthrough therapy designation for the treatment of previously treated KRAS g12c-mutant advanced pancreatic cancer.
• RCKT announces positive clinical safety update from initial three patients treated with rp-a501 under modified phase 2 protocol for Danon disease; said RP-a501 well-tolerated in initial three patients with no TMA or capillary leak syndrome; regulatory update expected in h2 2026.
• SUPN rises after merging with INDV as combined entity to be named Supernus, Inc. and Jack Khattar to serve as President and CEO; stockholders will get 1.5401 common shares of Indivior Pharmaceuticals for each share of Supernus Pharmaceuticals they own.

• Medical devices/equipment sector: Curium entered into a definitive agreement to acquire LNTH, a leading radiopharmaceutical-focused company for $102.50 per share in cash at closing, plus non-transferable Contingent Value Rights ("CVRs") providing for up to $12.00 per share in potential additional cash payments, subject for potential milestones in total deal valued at $8B or $114.50 per share. ITGR to be acquired by KKR in transaction valued at approximately $5.7B as Integer stockholders to receive $127 per share in cash.
• Managed care sector: CI was downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James saying Cigna is a slower-growth story with limited near-term catalysts, while PBM softness and ongoing transition investments create medium-term EPS pressure and downgraded ALHC as well to OP from Strong Buy saying its long-term operating model remains attractive, but expanding into new markets and higher Special Needs Plan membership growth are reducing earnings visibility.

• Electrical Components & Equipment: ATKR shares rose after Prysmian (PRYMY) agreed to acquire the U.S.-based electrical products maker for $95 per share in cash, giving the company an implied enterprise value of around $3.8 billion. Atkore generated revenue of $2.85B and an EBITDA of $386M in FY25. TE signed an agreement to supply Clearway Energy Group with 641 MW of solar modules manufactured at its G1_Dallas facility using domestically produced cells from its G2_Austin fab.
• Chemical sector: LYB upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at JP Morgan saying currently, Lyondell is earning above its normalized earnings level. EBITDA of $2.1B for the June quarter annualizes to $8.4B. JPMC thinks Lyondell’s normalized EBITDA is about $5B, which it models for 2028.

• BABA shares jumped after unveiled what it said is its largest and most capable artificial-intelligence model, the Qwen3.8-Max, which is not far behind in size when compared with an offering from domestic rival Moonshot Ai launched last month. Qwen3.8-Max has 2.4 trillion parameters, the numerical settings a model learns from data and uses to recognize patterns, generate answers, and carry out tasks. Moonshot's Kimi K3 has 2.8 trillion parameters.
• Optical and photon sector: GLW was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Truist while lower tgt to $175 from $205 saying they had waited for a more reasonable entry point to get more constructive, and it now has one post a ~45% pull back in July. Since initiating coverage in late March, Truist's 2028E EPS estimates have increased by ~30% (cons. +21%), while shares are flat. Shares of COHR, LITE, AAOI advanced as well.
• In Internet: EBAY shares fell after being downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and cut its tgt to $92 from $105 and cut eBay's earnings estimates by 10%, sitting 9% below consensus, to reflect greater dilution from the Depop acquisition. eBay will need "escalated" Depop marketing spend to defend against competitor Vinted's entry into the U.S. market.

• MU shares fell early before rebounding after reports Chinese rival CXMT plans a second memory-chip plant in Beijing and is in financing talks with a tech manufacturing hub backed by the local government, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The move by China's largest chipmaker aims to boost production amid strong global demand driven by AI, intensifying competition for major DRAM producers including MU. Shares of SNDK, WDC, STX, SKHY also saw weakness early before bouncing.
• NXPI was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS and cut tgt to $270 from $305 saying despite an analog upcycle that is gaining traction across industrial and Automotive end markets, they see rising risks of an inventory correction in China and believe the company's relatively limited Ai exposure versus peers is likely to translate into a less compelling growth profile.

Street Recommendations

Monday, August 3, 2026

• TCBI Barclays analyst Jared Shaw upgraded Texas Capital to Equal Weight from Underweight with an unchanged price target of $100. The firm adjusted ratings in the mid-cap bank space post the Q2 reports. Deposit costs moving higher as expected, but strong commercial pipelines are still driving good net interest income trends at most banks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays says that while Texas Capital continues to face challenges around loan growth and net interest margin in the near-term, the bank is seeing progress elsewhere in the franchise.
• ALNY Barclays analyst Eliana Merle lowered the firm's price target on Alnylam to $450 from $527 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a "disappointing" quarter and expanding the prescriber base is key for Amvuttra growth from here, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays thinks the recent pullback in the shares is overdone.
• MDGL Barclays analyst Eliana Merle lowered the firm's price target on Madrigal Pharmaceuticals to $962 from $964 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q2 report as strong. It has conviction in the shares at these levels and remains bullish on Rezdiffra.
• PCOR Barclays raised the firm's price target on Procore to $60 from $50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's results came in better than expectations across the board, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Procore's fiscal 2027 operating margin guidance of 25% digests the DroneDeploy acquisition.
• TROW Barclays lowered the firm's price target on T. Rowe Price to $103 from $108 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares post the Q2 report. The company beat consensus on lower costs, but management pointed to "meaningfully" more challenging flows in the second half of 2026 due to ongoing pressure in active equities and portfolio rebalancing, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HSY Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Hershey to $200 from $208 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm thinks the above forecast Q2 results "add another layer to the debate around whether we see a commensurate moderation in volume declines" as Hershey begins to lap its pricing actions later this year.

• ETN BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Eaton to $487 from $477 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's Q2 results were strong with 18% Electrical organic growth, and while investor execution questions will linger, BMO believes that Eaton has a runway to show its investments can compound, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The heavy lifting for capacity additions should be in the past, the firm added.
• LYB BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on LyondellBasell to $68 from $64 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company posted a solid beat with the benefit of Polyethylene and Polypropylene prices and margins as well as derivative product pricing, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With crude up off its lows, buyers nervous about the duration of the Iran conflict extending and inventories gradually declining, the second-half outlook for LyondellBasell may be a bit less worrisome than feared at the start of July, the firm added.

• RH BofA reinstated coverage of RH with an Underperform rating and $156 price target. The firm sees limited signs that housing dynamics will significantly improve in the second half and thinks there are other housing related stocks that are more diversified from a revenue perspective to better weather this housing downturn given that core furniture represents 80% of RH brand revenue, the analyst tells investors.
• EXPE BofA analyst Justin Post raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $331 from $310 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm expects Expedia to benefit from solid U.S. demand given higher North American exposure and strong corporate travel activity called out by airlines, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• ABNB BofA raised the firm's price target on Airbnb to $160 from $150 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares ahead of the scheduled Q2 report due on August 6. The firm thinks Airbnb is likely benefitting from continued U.S. travel strength, while EMEA could be seeing modest pressure and forex will be a modest Q3 headwind, the analyst tells investors in a preview.

• SNOW BTIG analyst Gray Powell raised the firm's price target on Snowflake to $340 from $325 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of its Q2 results. The firm's recent discussion with industry contacts saw "strong" commentary and the fieldwork left BTIG more confident in near term demand trends, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that it picked up encouraging data points on product initiatives like Cortex Code, Snowpark, and even Unistore, which support an improving narrative around Snowflake and broader tailwinds from AI adoption.

• DXCM Canaccord raised the firm's price target on DexCom to $90 from $82 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said guidance was raised for the second quarter in a row, but mainly only reflected the Q2 outperformance. The y believe the company are inching closer to CGM's coverage decision for T2 non-insulin patients, which should significantly reshape its revenue and EPS growth trajectory.
• ILMN Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Illumina to $205 from $190 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said the company's Q2 performance was driven by impressive NovaSeq X placements, as well as continued strong clinical consumables revenue growth (excluding China). Consequently, the company raised its 2026 total revenue guidance.
• MMSI Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Merit Medical to $94 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported an all-around, strong Q2 beat with its strongest quarterly organic growth in three years. They believe the company continues to execute against its core playbook-driving operating margin expansion and profitability while using M&A to support both top- line growth and longer-term margin improvement.
• NBIX Canaccord analyst Sumant Kulkarni raised the firm's price target on Neurocrine to $210 from $200 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they are encouraged by the solid commercial performance, which they continue to view as a key stock driver, especially as they wait for meaningful pipeline-driven catalysts in 2027E and beyond. With three commercial products firing nicely, Canaccord continues to view the stock as undervalued on the approved products alone. So, despite the stock up ~31% in 2026 theystill see further upside based on the potential for the company to continue to play to its commercialization strengths.

• WTW Citi downgraded WTW to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $345, up from $300. The firm sees a balanced risk/reward at current share levels. The company's AI investments are positive, but the benefits are far in the future, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites the stock's increased valuation for the downgrade.
• BF Citi analyst Filippo Falorni raised the firm's price target on Brown-Forman to $28 from $26 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares ahead of fiscal Q1 report. Citi also added a "downside 90-day Catalyst Watch" on Brown-Forman. While takeover news picked up again with the unsolicited offer from Sazerac, Citi is negative on Brown's fundamentals into earnings, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• AMLX Citi analyst Geoff Meacham raised the firm's price target on Amylyx to $26 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees a favorable setup into Avexitide's LUCIDITY readout in post-bariatric hypoglycemia, which is expected in Q3. Citi says statistically significant reduction in level 2/3 events "represents a balanced bar for success" for a $1.4B sales opportunity.
• TGT Citi analyst Paul Lejuez raised the firm's price target on Target to $148 from $133 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm expects the company to report a Q2 earnings beat and raise its fiscal 2026 outlook. However, most investors expect Target to report a "beat and raise," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• EMN Deutsche Bank analyst David Begleiter raised the firm's price target on Eastman Chemical to $74 from $72 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q2 report.

• AMAT Goldman Sachs analysts added Applied Materials to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $645 price target. Goldman believes Applied Materials is well positioned to market gain share at large DRAM companies and leading foundries like TSMC.
• DAL Goldman Sachs analysts added Delta Air Lines to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $116 price target. Goldman believes Delta is best positioned to capitalize on the industry's "newfound" pricing power.
• MSFT Goldman Sachs analysts added Microsoft to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $640 price target. Goldman believes Microsoft has an "ideal position" as AI moves from a trade focused on training and infrastructure to the early stages of "how to make AI work in enterprise."
• ORLY Goldman Sachs analysts added O'Reilly Automotive to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $113 price target. Goldman believes O'Reilly is well positioned relative to peers and is gaining share in the do it for me market.
• UPS Goldman Sachs analysts added UPS to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $132 price target. Goldman believes UPS is nearing a sustained revenue and profit inflection following three years of erosion.

• FLO Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Flowers Foods to $7 from $8 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Branded retail trends deteriorated further in Q2 and weakness broadened across the portfolio, the analyst tells investors. While Simple Mills continues to perform well and the dividend cut improves flexibility, a challenging competitive environment "keeps us cautious," the analyst added.

• LAUR JPMorgan downgraded Laureate Education to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $41. The stock's current valuation reflects well the company's growth and cash generation prospects, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan cites valuation for the downgrade following the stock's 70% rise over the past year. It now suggests investors wait for a better entry point.
• KOD JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Kodiak Sciences to $66 from $56 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company is expected in Q3 to report data from the Phase 3 study of tarcocimab and KSI-501 in wet age-related macular degeneration, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that at current levels, Kodiak shares are ascribing minimal to no value to the study. JPMorgan's sense is that Street expectations are low for DAYBREAK.
• TW JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington lowered the firm's price target on Tradeweb Markets to $117 from $125 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's Q2 report is largely in-line with expectations but its annual growth slowed on tough compares, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• GTES KeyBanc analyst Jeffrey Hammond raised the firm's price target on Gates Industrial to $34 from $31 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Following the company's Q2 earnings, the firm walked away encouraged by clear evidence of inflecting short-cycle demand trends evident in management's commentary and raised outlook paired with incremental confidence in a strong long-term margin trajectory. All in, KeyBanc has now greater confidence in its long-term thesis, as it sees a clear path to continued acceleration in organic growth and margin expansion, supporting re-rating closer to peers.
• MTZ KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on MasTec to $371 from $500 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported an OK Q2, but forward guidance on Comms and uncertain pace of recovery in 2027 led to Friday's market reaction. While disappointing, since MasTec had been firing on all cylinders, KeyBanc sees Comms delays as isolated from rest of business, which are showing strong results. The firm is optimistic on wireline returning to growth in early 2027, wireless may take longer since it's specific-customer driven.

• TMDX Needham lowered the firm's price target on TransMedics to $106 from $142 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm notes that its organ transplant tracker suggests the company may miss consensus revenue for Q2, adding that its reduced price target reflects the potential for slower revenue growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• FISI Piper Sandler analyst Manuel Navas raised the firm's price target on Financial Institutions to $45 from $38 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's PPNR beat estimates on stronger net interest income, Fees, and OpEx. Shares are trading up 6% vs the KRX since the solid print. Given limited upside to its price target, Piper remains on the sidelines.
• FULT Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Fulton Financial to $27 from $23 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company successfully closed its Blue Foundry Bancorp acquisition, and its 2026 outlook leans positive on lower credit costs, but weaker guides on loan growth and net interest income may better explain the lag in shares since their print.
• NBN Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Northeast Bank to $151 from $145 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is increasing its calendar 2026 EPS to $14.76, though it notes much of this stems from the period's lower tax rate as well as the release of reserves tied to Northeast Bank's purchase book.
• TBBK Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on The Bancorp to $86 from $70 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company's outlook remains robust with 2026/2027 year-over-year EPS growth implied of 21%/37% that includes program sponsor and sponsored lending growth driving the fintech evolution of the balance sheet, the start of embedded finance, and continued hefty share repurchases.

• CI Raymond James downgraded Cigna to Outperform from Strong Buy with a price target of $320, down from $350. Cigna is a slower-growth story with limited near-term catalysts, while PBM softness and ongoing transition investments create medium-term EPS pressure despite strength in specialty pharmacy, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ALHC Raymond James analyst Parker Snure downgraded Alignment Healthcare to Outperform from Strong Buy with a price target of $19, down from $22. The company's long-term operating model remains attractive, but expanding into new markets and higher Special Needs Plan membership growth are reducing earnings visibility through increased investment needs and Medicare Advantage margin pressure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MTD Stifel raised the firm's price target on Mettler-Toledo to $1,600 from $1,400 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. 6% local currency growth was "several points beyond what we thought might materialize" as improving end market conditions and some additional pricing drove "a nice 2Q beat," the analyst tells investors.
• PUMP Stifel lowered the firm's price target on ProPetro Holding to $20 from $23 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following Q2 results that the firm says "were weighed down by transitory items," but underpinned by a tightening frac market and continued PROPWR momentum.
• TSLA Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $491 from $508 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While the firm believes Tesla is making strong progress on FSD and Robotaxi, and it sees a demand resurgence evidenced by its largest order backlog since 2023 and the Model YL launch, it is lowering its target price based on its sum-of-the-parts analysis.

• STLA UBS downgraded Stellantis to Neutral from Buy with a price target of EUR 5.80, down from EUR 9.50. The firm says its U.S. turnaround thesis hasn't materialized as expected despite a solid market backdrop. Stellantis' drop-through from higher volumes has been "surprisingly low," the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes elevated dealer stock levels require production cuts or higher incentives in the second half of 2026.
• NXPI UBS downgraded NXP Semiconductors to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $270, down from $305. The firm sees rising risks of an inventory correction in China and believes the company's "relatively limited" AI exposure versus peers is likely to translate into a less compelling growth profile. NXP has high exposure to a potential China auto inventory correction, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• NVT UBS analyst Neal Burk lowered the firm's price target on nVent Electric to $200 from $225 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Data center and power utility growth trends are expected to drive sustainable expansion, supporting a forecast of $7 EPS in 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• AMRX UBS raised the firm's price target on Amneal Pharmaceuticals to $25 from $23 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Amneal's strong Q2 beat and raised outlook create an attractive buying opportunity, with near-term biosimilar and generic launches and a broader portfolio strategy supporting significant long-term growth potential, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• EBAY Wells Fargo downgraded eBay to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $92, down from $105. The firm cut eBay's earnings estimates by 10%, sitting 9% below consensus, to reflect greater dilution from the Depop acquisition. eBay will need "escalated" Depop marketing spend to defend against competitor Vinted's entry into the U.S. market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells expects consensus estimates for eBay to fall, driving downside in the shares.
• CVX Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Chevron to $226 from $222 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm says that Chevron is often characterized as in "harvest" mode at reduced capital intensity in Permian and Tengiz, but the Q2 call illustrated high levels of development and exploration activity across all regions and asset classes, including Power.
• XOM Wells Fargo analyst Sam Margolin lowered the firm's price target on Exxon Mobil to $182 from $183 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2 CFFO of $25.7B came in 4% ahead of its estimates. Accelerated Guyana cost recovery due to higher oil prices does not change Wells' production modeling, nor affect the prior long-term free cash flow trajectory of the Stabroek development.
• SPXC Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on SPX Technologies to $250 from $240 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is raising estimates on solid Q2 beat and stronger than expected second half of the year step-up in HVAC organic growth. Data center exposure continues to deliver with full year estimate revised up and incremental capacity expectations supporting double digits growth through 2028.
• RBLX Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Roblox to $46 from $56 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q3 guided below its cautiously previewed outlook as monetization comps create added pressure. FY26 guidance was removed, and Wells expects margin de-leverage through Q1 2027. Patience here has not been rewarded as finding a bottom has proven elusive, adds the firm.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending for June
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for July

• Earnings After the Close: ADTN ADUS AEIS AESI ALG ALSN AMRC ANDE ARE BLZE BSM BWXT CBT CLPT CLX CRGY CSR CSWC CTOS DDD DORM EVER FANG GBDC GPOR HSTM ICHR INSP IRT IVT JAZZ JELD JXN MATX MED NJR OKE ON OPAD OTTR PAY PLTR POWL RAIL SBAC SBRA SIBN SITC SNAP STOK TDW TKO TTI UCTT UTL VERX VNO VNOM VOYG VRTX VVX WGS SHR WMB

• 8:30 AM ET                   International trade for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance Goods trade Balance for June
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 Durable Goods orders M/M for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 JOLTs Job Openings for June
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACAD AFG AGNT AMD AMGN AMWL ANET ANGI ANGX APPS ARDT ARWR ATEC BBBY BIO BKNG BL BV BXC BZFD CACC CALY CC CE CX COMP CPNG CRBG CRCT CRNX CXDO DEI DOC DVA DVN ECG EGHT EHTH EMR EQH EVTC FBIN FLYW FRSH FTK GILD GLAD GTE GXO HL HLMN HNGE IFF INTA IOSP IPAR IPI J KTOS LCID LDI LMAT LMB LRN LSCC LUMN MAC MAT MCY MOS MQ MTCH NGL OGS OPEN ORLA PARR PCRX PCTY PINS PLUS PRCT PRIM PRI PSKY QLYS RARE RBA RIGL RRR RVLV RYAM SGHC SKT SKY SPCX SU SUPN SWIM TALO TBI TDC TOST TRVG TVTX UPST USNA VOYA VSAT WK WTRG WYNN ZETA

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for July
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, July-final
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, July-final
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing for July
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACA ACT AGL AKA ALB ALL ALNT ALTO AMPL APLE APP ARQT ARRY ASYS ATEN ATNI ATO AWR AXON BBD BBSI BKH BLBD BMBL BROS BYND CACI CAO CAPL CDE CENTA CF CGNX CHRD CHRS CHYM CLOV CMP COKE COOK CPA CPAY CRUS CW CEN CXT CXW DASH DAVE DGII DHT DHX DIOD DLX DOX DUOL EBAY EBS EE EHC ELF EOLS ERO ETSY EXEL EXPE EZPW FIG FLNC FNF FSLY FWRD GDRX GNK GNW GOOD GRAL GT GTM HBB HCC HHH HLF HMN HNST HRTG HST HUBS III IONQ JOBY KLIC KMPR KRO KVYO LAB LB LEU LZ MCK MELI MET MFC MGNI MIRM MKSI MNKD MSI MTDR MUR MUSA MWA MYO NTR NVST NWSA O OEC ORA OUT OXY PAYC POWI PR PRI PTLO QGEN RAMP RDN RELY RGLD RIG RUN RYN SBGI SBLK SEI SITM SM SMR SNDK SOLV SRPT STE SYM TASK TLN TPC TROX TRUP TS TTMI UGI UHAL VAL VRRM WDC WES WTS XYZ ZG ZIP ZVRA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Nonfarm productivity for Q2
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q2
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAOI ABNB ABX AFL AGO AHR AIG AKAM ALRM AMN AMRZ AORT APC ARDX ARLO ARW ASTH ATLC BARK BLNK BMRN CABO CARG CART CBL CLNE CLSK CON CPK CRSR CTRE CWST CYTK DBX DFLI DKNG DOCS DV ED ESE FIGS FIVN FNKO FOXF FROG G GAIN GEN GMED HALO HASI ICFI ICUI IIIV INGN INOD IRTC JHX KGS KRMN LASR LION LOCO LYFT MAIN MARA MNST MP MRVI MTW NAVI NET NTGR NTRA OM ONTO OUST PAR PGNY PK PRAA PUBM QDEL RCAT REAL RGA RGTI RHP RKT RLJ RMAX RMD ROKU RSG SERV SEZL SG SIGA SPT SSP SVV SYNA TEAM TNDM TTD TTGT TWLO TXG TXRH UE VTEX WEAV WEST WMG WPM WSC XRAY YELP

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for July
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for July
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings for July
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for June