Early Look

Friday, September 18, 2026

U.S. stock futures are edging higher on this option expiration Friday, looking to build on the prior day gains and on track to post solid weekly gains as Treasury yields pull back off near 20-year highs and oil prices edge lower in a week that was dominated by central bank actions. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps on Wednesday and flagged more hikes in the coming months. Kevin Warsh came to the Fed with a roadmap to lower borrowing costs. Less than four months later he has pulled the trigger on the Fed's first interest rate hike in over three years. Yesterday, the Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75%, exactly as expected. But its decisions relating to its balance sheet and quantitative tightening were a lot more interesting. Finally, overnight, the raised its policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% on Friday, matching all economists surveyed as the move was the fastest pace of tightening in over 30 years. But the hawkish message failed to rally the yen. Instead, the currency weakened as investors seized on dissent from two policymakers who argued the BOJ should remain patient in raising borrowing costs. The Japanese yen weakened to around 158 against the US dollar in reaction. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 882 points to 65,018, the Shanghai Index rose 36 points to 3,911, and the Hang Seng Index climbed 146 points to 24,750. In Europe, the German DAX is down -185 points to 25,530, while the FTSE 100 is down -75 points to 10,740. Gold and silver prices extend weekly gains while oil prices track weekly losses.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317.95 points, or 0.62%, to 51,779.85
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 439.87 points, or 1.69%, to 26,418.30
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 15.82 points, or 0.55% to 2,874.64

• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization for August…est.76.4%
• 10:00 AM ET                 Leading Index M/M for August…est. +0.1%
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• The Japanese Yen fell against the Dollar after the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points as expected. Japan’s currency dropped -1.2% to 157.87 per greenback.
• The U.S. could postpone announcing new tariffs on China and other countries until after President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping next week, Bloomberg reported. A previously planned trade report was expected to recommend a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods, while the final rate could potentially exceed the 20% level agreed during earlier talks.
• Global equity funds recorded their largest weekly outflow in nine months in the week through September 16, as a surge in oil prices heightened inflation concerns and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase added to investor caution. Investors withdrew a net $23.21 billion from global equity funds, the biggest weekly outflow since December 17, 2025, LSEG Lipper data showed.

• Nestle (NSRGY) said it is weighing all options after Kremlin moves to seize Russia business; Kremlin decision is latest move against Western firms in Russia; temporary administration often a move towards to State takeover. Nestle has six Russian factories.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan saying emerging headwinds in chicken from rising feed costs are well understood and could be partially offset by industry production cuts. Meanwhile, beef earnings could finally be on the upswing.

• Steel Dynamics (STLD) said it expects Q3 earnings of $5.34-$5.38, below the $5.60 consensus but above $3.69 in Q2, as significantly higher steel profitability from metal margin expansion and record shipments is expected to be partly offset by weaker metals recycling results due to lower spreads and shipments.
• Equinor (EQNR) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America citing their forecast for hotter winter gas prices in Europe; raises its Title Transfer Facility, or TTF, a virtual trading point for gas, price forecast to average €95/MWh for the winter.
• Targa Resources (TRGP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen and raised tgt to $350 from $275 calling it their top midstream pick as the company is well positioned to capture Permian wet gas growth; says 2030 metrics screen favorably versus the group.
• The State Department approved a potential $24.3B sale of 48 Lockheed Martin (LMT) F-35 Lightning II aircraft to Saudi Arabia, along with 49 Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 engines and related equipment. The deal still requires congressional approval.

• Warren Buffett is stepping down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), the $1 trillion conglomerate he has led for more than six decades.

• Xenon (XENE) announces azetukalner NDA submission to FDA for focal seizures and provides update on psychiatry clinical program; initiates temporary pause of enrollment in ongoing psychiatry studies; said enrollment in X-nova2 study in MDD completed; topline data expected Q1 2027.

• Intapp (INTA) announced a partnership with OpenAI to make Celeste, its expert AI coworker, available as a plug-in for ChatGPT Enterprise. The integration brings law firms’ proprietary client context, methods, matters, and institutional knowledge into ChatGPT Enterprise.
• Macom (MTSI) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital with an unchanged price target of $335 citing valuation for the upgrade with the stock down 36% from the May peak.
• Netflix (NFLX) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and cut tgt to $57 from $80 saying the company's engagement trends look worrying and believes Netflix's originals content slate is weaker in the second half of 2026 versus prior periods. Its base case is the company's top 100 originals hours will be down 21% year-over-year.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) raises quarterly dividend 7% to $1.52 from $1.42 per share.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, September 18, 2026

U.S. stock markets are slipping early, but mixed on the week, managing to overcome a confluence of negative headlines and fears including fears over a slowdown in AI development after AI CEO warnings, the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in three years, higher Treasury yields (impacting mortgage rates and borrowing costs) and sky-high diesel and oil prices. Crypto got hit this week as well after the failure of the Clarity Act vote in the Senate and a rate hike should have punctured crypto’s recent rally. However, coming into triple witching option expiration today, stocks are on track for weekly advances and crypto has even bounced with Bitcoin higher today! Today's $7 Trillion quad-witching is the 2nd biggest ever worth noting. In central bank news, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% on Friday, matching all economists surveyed as the move was the fastest pace of tightening in over 30 years. But the hawkish message failed to rally the Yen. Instead, the currency weakened 1.2% as investors seized on dissent from two policymakers who argued the BOJ should remain patient in raising borrowing costs. Oil prices bounce after falling 2 straight days. All eleven S&P sectors are currently lower on the day with materials, communications and utilities the biggest decliners.

• Metals & Mining: steel producers were pressured early after both NUE, STLD issued quarterly guidance below views. guidance: NUE said it expects Q3 earnings of $5.55-$5.65 per share, below the $5.99 consensus but above $5.04 in Q2, with higher Steel selling prices and stable volumes expected to benefit its Steel mills and Steel products segments, partly offset by higher costs and weaker raw Materials results. STLD guided Q3 EPS $5.34-$5.38, below the $5.60 consensus but above $3.69 in Q2, as significantly higher Steel profitability from metal margin expansion and record shipments is expected to be partly offset by weaker metals recycling results due to lower spreads and shipments.
• Crypto sector: Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rebound along with crypto linked stocks such as HOOD, COIN, MSTR, BLSH, CRCL as the price of Bitcoin rallied, with investors shrugging off the Fed's rate hike and the collapse of the Clarity Act. The group got a bounce Thursday after the SEC rolled out a five-year exemption to allow cos to trade blockchain-based or tokenized stocks and other securities. Bitcoin has rallied despite two potential setbacks this week. The Clarity Act, a key crypto bill, fell in the Senate on Tuesday. The following day, the Fed raised rates for the first time in more than three years.

• DSP +17%; shares jumped after saying it and a stockholder decided to withdraw 8.5 mln share offering due to current market conditions, per an SEC filing.
• ETSY +1%; was upgraded to Buy at BTIG with a $90 target saying shares have pulled back enough since the firm's previous downgrade in July to create a significantly better risk reward for investors.
• SNDK +4%; the Nasdaq slipping early but semiconductors (SOX) outperformed with notable bounces for likes of MU, AVGO, MU and others
• STUB +5%; was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup saying recent FY26 Adj. EBITDA guidance implies greater Adj. EBITDA in 2H26 versus 1H26; and says based on robust app downloads in Q326, believes StubHub will report Q326 Adj. EBITDA above expectations.
• TSN +1%; was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan saying emerging headwinds in chicken from rising feed costs are well understood and could be partially offset by industry production cuts. Meanwhile, beef earnings could finally be on the upswing.

• NFLX -5%; was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and cut tgt to $57 from $80 saying the company's engagement trends look worrying and believes Netflix's originals content slate is weaker in the second half of 2026 versus prior periods.
• NUE -4%; along with weakness in STLD after both steel producers guided Q3 EPS outlooks below consensus views last night and hitting the industrial metals space.
• PANW -4%; as cyber security stocks seeing pullback after run in shares (ZS, CRWD, FTNT); also hacking story earlier (Independent Security researchers used Anthropic's Claude to hack into OpenAI, via an employee's ChatGPT account, according to The Wall Street Journal.)
• TFX -1%; on track to decline for an 11^th straight trading day; tests 200dma support $124.
• XENE -25%; after the company temporarily pauses new patient enrollment in clinical studies for its drug on major and bipolar depression saying side effects of drug included confusion, speech difficulties, motor coordination issues and a "very small number" of cases classified under "psychosis".

Closing Recap

Friday, September 18, 2026

U.S. stocks finished mixed on Friday following a busy week of market catalysts that included central bank action, economic data, and volatility in financials and the tech space on AI fears. Semiconductor chips and AI infrastructure stocks declined Monday on calls for slowing down frontier AI models by top CEO’s of AI labs (Anthropic/OpenAI). The market retreated Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps (as expected) and signaled at least one more hike soon. As of early Friday morning, market pricing shows 90% odds of a hike by the Dec. 9 policy update, with a 55% chance it will happen Oct. 28. Stocks rebounded Thursday in a day two Fed reaction as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq regained their 50-day moving average lines after one day below that. Then Friday, US stocks petered out behind another bounce in global Treasury yields. The Nasdaq edged higher for the week while the S&P 500 is slightly lower. The Dow Jones and small-cap Russell fell solidly for the week, losing sight of their 50-day lines. Bitcoin and crypto stocks fell mid-week as the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, but rebounded as regulators took their own action. Apple began selling the iPhone 18 handsets, but not the foldable iPhone Duo yet. While stock markets are holding not far off all-time highs digesting higher yields, oil, diesel prices, several sectors have been in a downtrend of late as Transports, small caps, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary are all now down 5 straight weeks (XLY down 6 straight, while XLP, XLI, XLRE down 5 straight weeks and XLB 4 straight weeks). For the week, the S&P 500 fell -0.1%, the Dow fell -1.7% and the Nasdaq climbed +0.7%.

The trading week has been dominated by central bank actions. 1) On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps and flagged more hikes in the coming months. Kevin Warsh came to the Fed with a roadmap to lower borrowing costs. Less than four months later he has pulled the trigger on the Fed's first interest rate hike in over three years. 2) Yesterday, the Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75%, exactly as expected. But its decisions relating to its balance sheet and quantitative tightening were a lot more interesting. 3) Finally, overnight, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25 bps to 1.25%, matching all economists surveyed as the move was the fastest pace of tightening in over 30 years. But the hawkish message failed to rally the yen. Instead, the currency weakened as investors seized on dissent from two policymakers who argued the BOJ should remain patient in raising borrowing costs.

Interesting data points: 1) US equity funds recorded outflows for a fourth consecutive week in the week to September 18, as rising crude oil prices heightened inflation concerns and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike added to investor caution ahead of its policy decision. US equity funds recorded net redemptions of $31.44 billion during the week, largely matching the $32 billion withdrawn a week earlier, LSEG Lipper data showed. 2) However, @Bluekurtic noted on X, “Active managers went from levered to their teeth to just gritting them. NAAIM Exposure Index fell from 100+ to below 75. This is bullish for the S&P 500. Sidelined cash from managers fed up with the chop could fuel the next leg higher.”

• The Japanese yen weakened this morning despite the BOJ raising rates by 25bps as the hawkish message failed to rally the Yen. Instead, the currency weakened more than 1.2% as investors focused on dissent from two policymakers who argued the BOJ should remain patient in raising borrowing costs. Still, later in the day, the yen strengthened amid what traders said was likely intervention falling back below the 157 level, off highs around 158.
• Treasury yields rise as the Benchmark 10-yr yield rose 6 bps today to settle at 4.995%, rising 2.1bps for the week and is up 27.4bps this month alone; the 2-yr yield rises over 5bps today to 4.741%, up nearly 10-bps on the week and up 57bps in a little over a month settling at a new 52-week high; the 30-yr yield was up 3 bps today, but down -2.7bps on week to settle at 5.327%. The Fed raised rates Wednesday and Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks left markets under the impression that more increases could come. Since then, the yield curve has been flattening. The spread between the two-year and the 10-year yields reached its narrowest level since March 2025 on Thursday, while the 10-yr held around the 5% level most of today.

• Food & Beverage sector: TSN was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan saying emerging headwinds in chicken from rising feed costs are well understood and could be partially offset by industry production cuts. Meanwhile, beef earnings could finally be on the upswing.
• Restaurant sector: CAVA announced that its board of directors has approved a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to $100M of its outstanding common stock.

• Leisure sector: STUB was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup saying recent FY26 Adj. EBITDA guidance implies greater Adj. EBITDA in 2H26 versus 1H26; and says based on robust app downloads in Q326, believes StubHub will report Q326 Adj. EBITDA above expectations.

• Solar and Utility sector: utility sector (XLU) was weaker as Treasury yields rebounded after one day slide on Thursday (higher yields weigh on dividend paying sectors likes Utes); ARRY was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and cut tgt to $5 from $10 as the transition of Preferred dividends from payment-in-kind (PIK) to cash pay changes the outlook for FCF deployment.

• COO shares active after activist JANA Partners sent a letter to its Board, pushing for a CEO change, appointment of a new board chair and evaluation of asset sales. This comes after shares fell -15% earlier this month after the company reported a disappointing F3Q + guidance update and disclosed its decision to retain its CSI business post strategic review.
• XENE shares slide as announces azetukalner NDA submission to FDA for focal seizures and provides update on psychiatry clinical program; initiates temporary pause of enrollment in ongoing psychiatry studies; said enrollment in X-nova2 study in MDD completed; topline data expected Q1 2027.
• Evercore initiated coverage on four SMID biotech stocks as see strong potential ahead, with promising catalysts on the horizon leading into 2027. DBVT, PRLD, TRAX and QNCX all initiated at Buy ratings. For DBVT, primary focus on Viaskin's potential comeback; for TRAX, expectations surrounding the gluten challenge data are positive; for QNCX, valuation is anchored by DPI rapamycin, particularly in PH-ILD, with crucial data expected in early 2028; and for PRLD, a standout in the under-$1B biotech sector, developments in the KAT6 space position this company advantageously.

• Industrial sector: in the waste sector, WCN was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and raised tgt to $200 as believes the recent underperformance has created an attractive entry point, as the market remains focused on Chiquita, a discounted valuation, and a Superior growth profile vs key peers.
• Shipping sector: The Baltic Exchange's dry Bulk Freight index rises on stronger Capesize vessel rates, but posts weekly decline. The main Baltic index fell rose 34 points, or 1%, to 3,370 points. However, the index was down nearly 4% for the week so far. The Capesize index rose 112 points, or 2%, to 5,768 points. It was on track for a weekly fall of 5%. The panamax index fell 31 points, or 1.4%, to 2,251 points, and was headed for a weekly drop of 6.5%.

• Metals & Mining: steel producers were pressured early after both NUE, STLD issued quarterly guidance below views. guidance: NUE said it expects Q3 earnings of $5.55-$5.65 per share, below the $5.99 consensus but above $5.04 in Q2, with higher Steel selling prices and stable volumes expected to benefit its Steel mills and Steel products segments, partly offset by higher costs and weaker raw Materials results. STLD guided Q3 EPS $5.34-$5.38, below the $5.60 consensus but above $3.69 in Q2, as significantly higher Steel profitability from metal margin expansion and record shipments is expected to be partly offset by weaker metals recycling results due to lower spreads and shipments.
• Aluminum sector: Wells Fargo with price changes in the sector as they upgraded KALU to Equal Weight from Underweight after they trimmed aluminum forecasts but remains relatively constructive on the sector citing valuation with the shares down over 20% quarter-to-date. The firm cut its tgt on AA to $60 from $71 and CENX to $79 from $83 and CSTM to $38 from $39.

• Neocloud sector: SHAZ Initiated Outperform $95.00 PT, IREN Outperform $99.00 PT, CHRN Outperform $32.00 PT and BRUN Outperform $36.00 PT at Northland; said IREN’s path to SW differentiated AIaaS is the clearest with the very attractive Mirantis acquisition, CHRN taking a Bold and capital efficient approach to internally build the hybrid Cloud of AIaaS, BRUN execution exceeding Spac combination expectations; see potential to build a software enabled differentiated layer. Market pricing SHAZ as worse off than the advertised bare metal player, while optionality remains to develop a differentiated SW layer, in Northland's view.
• Software sector: cyber security stocks slide after a good run the last few weeks; note today, a hacking story earlier (Independent Security researchers used Anthropic's Claude to hack into OpenAI, via an employee's ChatGPT account, according to The Wall Street Journal.)- shares of CRWD, ZS, PANW, FTNT among those under pressure.
• Hardware & Components: Evercore noted in research today that the latest consumer survey indicates a robust iPhone upgrade Cycle for AAPL, significantly driven by Pro Max demand and enhanced pricing strategies. Key insights suggest that the current iPhone refresh Cycle could exceed expectations, with substantial potential for average selling price (ASP) increases, propelled by premium configurations and memory options. iPhone Demand Strength: A noteworthy 61% of respondents plan to purchase an iPhone, marking an increase from 59% last year and reflecting robust demand. Particularly, the 18 Pro Max model stands out, with 32% of customers indicating intention to buy, up from 29% last year.
• AdTech sector: DSP shares jumped after saying it and a stockholder decided to withdraw 8.5 mln share offering due to current market conditions, per an SEC filing; more volatility in other AdTech names MGNI, PUBM, TTD a day after an unsealed court order in the Google AdTech monopoly case comes out with remedies more heavily in favor of Independent SSPs.
• IT Services & Consulting: ACN was downgraded to Neutral at Guggenheim noting shares have rebounded +52% since June troughs (vs. SPX +2% over the same period) with no corresponding improvement in demand surfaced in GUGG's channel discussions.

• INTA announced a partnership with OpenAI to make Celeste, its expert AI coworker, available as a plug-in for ChatGPT Enterprise. The integration brings law firms’ proprietary client context, methods, matters, and institutional knowledge into ChatGPT Enterprise.
• MTSI upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital with an unchanged price target of $335 citing valuation for the upgrade with the stock down 36% from the May peak.
• TXN raises quarterly dividend 7% to $1.52 from $1.42 per share.

Street Recommendations

Friday, September 18, 2026

• HQY Barclays raised the firm's price target on HealthEquity to $115 from $110 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's historical correlation to interest rates during periods of rising yields "has broken down recently as rates have moved higher," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a "compelling disconnect and attractive entry point" with HealthEquity shares down 11% from the August highs.
• LEN Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Lennar to $70 from $79 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company's uncertainty is only growing, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm reduced its fiscal 2027 estimates sharply for Lennar citing softening margins. The company's land banking strategy "poses idiosyncratic margin pressure ahead on rising option costs, on top of housing-wide affordability headwinds weighing," contends Barclays.

• NGVC BofA initiated coverage of Natural Grocers with a Buy rating and $35 price target, representing 20% upside. Driven by product affordability, attractive new-store economics and expansion in underserved markets, the firm projects Natural Grocers to deliver annual 6%-7% revenue growth, 4%-5% unit growth and continued EBITDA margin expansion.
• CRWD BofA raised the firm's price target on CrowdStrike to $260 from $230 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Following numerous announcements at Fal.Con, CrowdStrike has "cemented its position at the forefront of AI security, says the analyst, adding that the "Guardian" product is setting the industry standard for AI detection and response.
• OKTA BofA analyst Tal Liani raised the firm's price target on Okta (OKTA) to $200 from $170 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. As CISOs consider how to secure agents, increased identity management and governance is "an obvious answer" as every AI agent ultimately requires authentication, creating a favorable backdrop for identity-focused vendors and supporting Okta and SailPoint (SAIL), the analyst tells investors.
• BA BofA analyst Ronald Epstein notes the 7% intra-day swing in Boeing shares to the downside earlier this week after CEO Kelly Ortberg commented on challenges faced by the planemaker while presenting at an investor conference. However, the firm finds the market's reaction "a bit dramatic" given that it wouldn't expect Boeing's turnaround effort to follow a linear path and setbacks should be expected on the way up. The firm, which believes the real near-term risk for Boeing lies in a potential SPEEA strike with the current contract expiring on October 6, reiterates a Buy rating and $270 price target on shares.

• FBRT BTIG downgraded Franklin BSP Realty Trust to Neutral from Buy with no price target. While a rising-rate environment presents challenges for the firm's entire cmREIT coverage, Franklin BSP is "particularly affected" due to its higher concentration of fixed-rate loans and the NewPoint agency lending business, says the analyst, who also voices concerns around a second round of management turnover.
• DHT BTIG raised the firm's price target on DHT Holdings to $28 from $23 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Crude and Product tankers. Oil supply disruptions continue to support the rates as customers increasingly go long tanker tonnage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• FRO BTIG raised the firm's price target on Frontline to $70 from $55 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Crude and Product tankers. Oil supply disruptions continue to support the rates as customers increasingly go long tanker tonnage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• INSW BTIG analyst Gregory Lewis raised the firm's price target on International Seaways to $130 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Crude and Product tankers. Oil supply disruptions continue to support the rates as customers increasingly go long tanker tonnage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• STNG BTIG raised the firm's price target on Scorpio Tankers to $110 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Crude and Product tankers. Oil supply disruptions continue to support the rates as customers increasingly go long tanker tonnage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• SYK Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Stryker to $385 from $400 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model to reflect the comments the company made during a conference fireside chat last week. where they spoke to headwinds in both its Peripheral Vascular (PV) and its Joint Replacement (JR) businesses.

• RARE Cantor Fitzgerald raised the firm's price target on Ultragenyx to $39 from $33 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The approval of FAYUVI for Sanfilippo syndrome type A is a "much-needed win" for Ultragenyx, with another product to launch, providing the company with a priority review voucher, which, along with the previous PRV, could collectively result in $400M in non-dilutive capital, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• TTD Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Trade Desk to $13 from $12 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While noting that the firm's near-term adjusted EBITDA forecast remains below consensus, the analyst now includes a more significant cost management outlook following the company's recent 15% workforce reduction.
• QSR Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Restaurant Brands to $86 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which is raising its estimates, notes that it models Q3 same-store sales beats at Burger King and Tim Hortons and a "modest miss" at Popeyes.
• SIRI Guggenheim analyst Curry Baker raised the firm's price target on SiriusXM to $37 from $35 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which is updating its model and modestly lowering full-year revenue and EBITDA estimates primarily due to memory costs tied to equipment revenue, thinks shares will continue to find support in the near term due to stabilizing core financials, the ramping of the commercialization partnership with YouTube audio next year, and free cash flow continuing to grow.

• CHRD Jefferies analyst John Edelman raised the firm's price target on Chord Energy to $150 from $133 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Divesting the Marcellus assets for $550M achieved "a key, although widely anticipated, positive catalyst" for Chord, the analyst tells investors. In the near-term, the divestiture strengthens the balance sheet and is neutral to free cash flow per share, while slightly dilutive to cash flow per share, says the analyst, who expects management direction on the use of proceeds will be "key for equity follow-through."

• CCK JPMorgan upgraded Crown Holdings to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $121. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade with the shares down 8% since late July. Crown should increase beverage can volumes by 4.0%-4.5% this year, with higher growth in the Asia Pacific region and some incremental benefit to North America beverage volumes from the World Cup, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says the stock often trades short-term on consolidated volume growth momentum, which should be "healthy" in Q3.
• BALL JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas upgraded Ball Corp. to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $65. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade with the shares down 9% since late July. Warm weather, which has been seen the U.S. and Europe, tends to be positive for beverage consumption and can trends, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes volumes for Ball in 2026 are likely to grow 3.5% year-over-year, assisted by the acquisition of Benepact in Europe and the start-up of the Millersburg, Oregon plant. JPMorgan says the stock often trades short-term on consolidated volume growth momentum, which should be "healthy" in Q3.
• TSN JPMorgan upgraded Tyson Foods to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $63, down from $65. The firm thinks emerging headwinds in chicken from rising feed costs are well understood and could be partially offset by industry production cuts. Meanwhile, beef earnings "could finally be on the upswing," helped by a series of emerging tailwinds, including Tyson's reduced operational footprint, the gradual resumption of cattle imports from Mexico, and increased domestic cattle supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that Tyson shares trade at a 1-times discount to historic averages on enterprise value to EBITDA.
• GNRC JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Generac (GNRC) to $265 from $261 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after meeting with management following the announcement of a long-term supply agreement with Amazon (AMZN) for backup power generators across Amazon data centers. The agreement is an "encouraging sign of customer views" of Generac's solution in light of recent geopolitics, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan increased the company's estimates citing "significantly increased" visibility into its fiscal 2027 and 2028 data center revenue.

• THG Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on The Hanover to $232 from $222 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. Management effectively highlighted Hanover's strong agency relationships and technology platform, but ambitions could be challenged by continued P&C rate softening in small/mid-market accounts and intense competition in personal auto, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• XENE Needham lowered the firm's price target on Xenon Pharmaceuticals to $60 from $78 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the company having paused the enrollment of ongoing psychiatry Phase 3 studies in major depressive disorder and bipolar depression due to higher observed rates of neuropsychiatric adverse effects, or AEs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The potential of AZK in MDD/BPD is now in doubt, given the uncertainty that dosing modifications can mitigate neuropsychiatric AEs while still maintaining adequate efficacy, the firm added.

• ADC Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Agree Realty to $81.50 from $84 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company announced it had priced $400M of 5.650% senior unsecured notes due 2036. Agree will use net proceeds from the bond deal and swap to repay a large portion the outstanding balance on its line of credit/commercial paper program, the analyst noted.

• EWBC TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on East West Bancorp to $150 from $148 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm hosted an investor dinner and came away more bullish on the company's ability to sustain above-peer growth and ROTCE, supporting its premium valuation.
• XENE TD Cowen analyst Joseph Thome announced that azetukalner's new drug application has been submitted for focal onset seizures but also a voluntary enrollment pause on the depression trials. The corresponding share selloff is overdone given the potential in focal onset seizures alone, the analyst tells investors in a research note. TD says the adverse events leading the pause are consistent with the known profile of the Kv7 class, were short lasting, and reversible with no long-term sequelae. TD keeps a Buy rating on Xenon. The stock in premarket trading is down 26% to $42.30.
• HUBS TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $260 from $285 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm attended the company's analyst day rolled out a new Smart CRM with Context Graph and an agent harness, alongside a refreshed Breeze Assistant. Management noted that AI monetization continues to evolve but sees seats and credits as primary revenue drivers over time.

• INTU Truist analyst Arvind Ramnani keeps a Hold rating and $300 price target on Intuit after the company's investor day presentation. The management was candid regarding DIY share loss due to price despite share gain in Assisted, conceding it did not grow new customers at the pace it expected in FY26 and framed its initiative for FY27 around two priorities: scaling the Big Bets and accelerating new customer growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ARRY UBS downgraded Array Technologies to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $5, down from $10. The company's preferred dividends transition from payment-in-kind to cash pay changes the outlook for free cash flow deployment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS expects Array to generate sufficient free cash flow to service the preferred, but says the payments reduce its cash available for deleveraging and growth investment at a time when competitors broaden their platforms through consolidation.
• FTCI UBS analyst Jon Windham upgraded FTC Solar to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $3.60, up from $3.50. The stock's current "depressed valuation" underestimates FTC's earnings power amid its product-driven turnaround, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS says the company's recent U.S. and Australian orders, and the start of shipments for the Fraser Coast project, support its view that FTC's revamped one module in portrait orientation and First Solar compatible tracker solutions are gaining acceptance. The firm forecasts 40% revenue growth in 2026 and a 45% growth annually from 2027 to 2030, driving positive adjusted EBITDA in 2028 for FTC Solar.

• KALU Wells Fargo upgraded Kaiser Aluminum to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $160, down from $169. The firm trimmed its aluminum forecasts but remains "relatively constructive" on the sector. Wells cites valuation for the upgrade of Kaiser with the shares down over 20% quarter-to-date. It expects the company to post another strong quarter on elevated margins.
• XENE Wells Fargo analyst Benjamin Burnett lowered the firm's price target on Xenon Pharmaceuticals to $64 from $69 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes shares are weak post-close after neuropsychiatric adverse events are brought sharply into focus. Major depressive disorder seems risky, but Wells doesn't see negative read-through to focal onset seizures where it anticipates approval without a black box warning. The firm thinks shares are higher in that scenario.
• AA Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Alcoa to $60 from $71 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is trimming aluminum forecasts but remains relatively constructive, finding aluminum-exposed names the best value opportunity in its M&M coverage.
• CENX Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Century Aluminum to $79 from $83 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is trimming aluminum forecasts but remains relatively constructive, finding aluminum-exposed names the best value opportunity in its M&M coverage.
• CSTM Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners lowered the firm's price target on Constellium to $38 from $39 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is trimming aluminum forecasts but remains relatively constructive, finding aluminum-exposed names the best value opportunity in its M&M coverage.
• CRM Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin raised the firm's price target on Salesforce to $250 from $230 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm surveyed 30 customers at Dreamforce, focused on AI adoption, net-new investments, spend intentions and AI strategy alignment. Wells highlights that Salesforce is entrenched, Agentforce interest levels remain high, but consistent signal on monetization/growth tougher to find.
• STLD Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $257 from $255 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q3's mid-quarter EPS guidance at $5.34-$5.38 missed FactSet consensus at $5.60 and its $5.61 as steel fabrications remained muted. Wells trims estimates, but stays constructive on free cash flow optionality and upside to steel/aluminum margins.
• NUE Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners lowered the firm's price target on Nucor to $280 from $285 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm expects shares to lag Friday after Q3 guidance missed expectations on elevated costs. Wells considers the guide conservative, while Q4 should benefit from pricing lags and tight steel availability, yet any price or tariff reversal remains risks.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: ABVX

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for September
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $78B in 2-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: KBH WOR

• Bank America Global Healthcare Conference 2026, 9/22-9/23, in New York
• Barrington Virtual Fall Investment Conference, 9/22
• Jefferies AI Summit, 9/22-9/23, in San Francisco, CA

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Sept-flash
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: FUL NEOV SFIX

• Bank America Global Healthcare Conference 2026, 9/22-9/23, in New York
• Benchmark Nuclear Summit, 9/23, in Knoxville, TN
• Bernstein 3rd Annual Healthcare Forum, 9/23-9/24, in New York, NY
• DA Davidson 25th Annual Diversified Industrials & Services Conference, 9/23-9/26, in Nashville, TN
• Deutsche Bank Private Software & AI Summit, 9/23 in New York
• Jefferies AI Summit, 9/22-9/23, in San Francisco, CA
• Sidoti Smallcap Conference, 9/23-9/24 (virtual)
• TD Cowen 3rd Annual Energy Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Austin, TX
• Truist Healthcare Technology & Digital Health West Coast Bus Tour, 9/23-9/24, in San Francisco, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Current Account Balance for Q2
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed manufacturing for September
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: COST LGCY SCHL

• Bernstein 3rd Annual Healthcare Forum, 9/23-9/24, in New York, NY
• DA Davidson 25th Annual Diversified Industrials & Services Conference, 9/23-9/26, in Nashville, TN
• Oppenheimer Insurance Summit 9/24 (virtual)
• Sidoti Smallcap Conference, 9/23-9/24 (virtual)
• TD Cowen 3rd Annual Energy Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Austin, TX
• Truist Healthcare Technology & Digital Health West Coast Bus Tour, 9/23-9/24, in San Francisco, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Durable Goods – Less Transports for Aug
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, Sept-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• TD Cowen 3rd Annual Energy Conference, 9/23-9/25, in Austin, TX