Closing Recap
Wednesday, August 05, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | 263.12 | 0.49% | 54,349 |
S&P 500 | -13.11 | 0.17% | 7,723 |
Nasdaq | -221.55 | 0.83% | 26,363 |
Russell 2000 | -17.81 | 0.59% | 3,019 |
US equity futures built on yesterday’s momentum with modest overnight gains, but the gains were soon mixed as sellers emerged to push the Nasdaq back into the red early. A few very busy days of earnings haven’t shifted the season’s statistics meaningfully. With 371 S&P names now having reported, we still are at an 87% beat percentage with an average beat now at 13%, same as last year. Average year/year EPS growth of 23% continues to compare favorably with last year’s 10%, while median growth of 13% also beats last year’s 8%. With these growth stats, perhaps it is not a shock the S&P 500’s forward 12 month estimated profit margin is at 16.8%, an all-time high, per @KevRGordon. That margin is 2.8 points higher than last year and beats the prior peak yr/yr change of +2.7 points from July 2021.
In sentiment today, the Fear and Greed Index popped back up to Greed territory, registering 64/100 versus last week’s 34 (Fear) and last month’s 32 (Fear). A year ago we were at 55 (Neutral). By mid/late morning, large cap indices were mixed, though breadth was neutral as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.24%) versus SPY (+0.20%) and QQQ (-0.23%). SPY breadth favored decliners by 9:8, while QQQ breadth favored decliners by 11:7. Sector performance was also fairly neutral with Materials (+1.34%), Health Care (+0.91%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.70%) outperforming among S&P sector ETFs, while Real Estate (-0.93%), Utilities (-1.64%) and Energy (-1.80%) paced the underperformers with 5 sectors gaining versus 6 declining.
Following a month in which hedge funds cut gross leverage by about 15% of fund equity (second largest monthly drop in the past ten years, per @GlobalMktObserv), we’ve seen four straight days of over 1% gains in the Nasdaq (only the 18th time dating back to the early 1970’s per @bespokeinvest). Today would not extend that streak. The S&P held small gains through the day while the Nasdaq held a modest decline until the final minutes when markets ended on their lows. We get another big batch of earnings tonight, so stay tuned.
Economic Data
- The U.S. ISM services sector, its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index inched up to 54.1 last month from 54.0 in June. The survey's measure of new orders received by services businesses jumped to 57.2 from 55.1 in June. New orders were also boosted by strength in exports. Measure of supplier deliveries slipped to 52.8 from 54.4. ISM non-manufacturing prices paid index 70.3 in July vs 67.7 in June.
- U.S. private payrolls growth slowed in July, with payrolls increasing 44,000, below economists' expectations for a 70,000 gain, the ADP national employment report showed on Wednesday.
- S&P July services PMI at 54.6 vs 51.2 prior and S&P July composite PMI at 54.5 vs 51.9 prior.
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- Gold futured gained overnight and kept going to a 4% surge by midday. Despite higher yields, an easing Dollar and oil pullback on Iran progress hopes lent support as investors await more clues on the Fed’s next move. December gold futures settled off the highs, but still +$152.60/oz, or +3.67%, at $4,305.20. Silver also surged with a 3.39% gain to $62.29. The U.S. dollar was near its lowest against the Japanese currency in three months, making dollar-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. Traders are pricing in about a 57% chance of a rate hike in the central bank's September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- WTI crude gained modestly overnight but was quick to reverse as headlines flowed. News of a draft agreement for the Strait (still would need to be approved by Iran’s supreme leader), another headline indicating a 50/50 chance a deal on the Strait would be reached by Friday and commentary indicating Israel and several Gulf countries are holding talks to explore alternative solutions for moving oil and gas through routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait all pressured crude back to a decline on the day. September futures settled -$0.55/bbl, or -0.73%, at $62.29.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | -0.55 | 75.22 |
Brent | 0.09 | 79.45 |
Gold | 152.60 | 4,305.20 |
EUR/USD | 0.0021 | 1.1551 |
JPY/USD | -0.03 | 157.69 |
10-Year Note | -0.008 | 4.619% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- Retailers: BBBY shares tumbled after posted miss with Q2 EPS loss (-$0.53) vs. est. loss (-$0.26); Q2 revs $361.2M vs. est. $362.4M; Q2 adj EBITDA loss of $12M and Q2 operating loss of $42.9M; files for mixed shelf of up to $200M. BURL was downgraded to Neutral on more balanced risk/reward at Citigroup saying shares are within 5% of their target price and risk/reward no longer skews to the upside/Sentiment has become more positive recently, as many see the potential for upside in Q3. CPRI Q1 revs fell -3.5% y/y to $769M topping ests $753M but cuts FY rev forecast to about $3.4B from about $3.53B expected earlier, saying inventory delays are expected to hit revenue at its key Michael Kors brand in Q2. BBY was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies saying shares are pricing in a solidly positive comp for Q2, and the magnitude of Best Buy's earnings outperformance thereafter may disappoint.
- Food Sector: KHC shares fell as Q2 results topped consensus, but offered mixed guidance for the year as raises FY Adj EPS to $2.03-$2.09, from prior $1.98-$2.10, but weaker adj operating profit view of negative -16% to -18%, from -14% to -18%. CMG gets a bounce after Minnesota department of health confirms no ongoing concerns with Chipotle; LMB shares fell after Q2 revs $173.46M misses est $177.25M and cut its FY 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $78M-$84M from $90M-$94M prior and said expects FY 2026 gross margin of 23%-24%, down from prior 26%-27% forecast. SHAK shares jumped on earnings and after activist investor Starboard has built a new stake in Shake Shack, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters
- Consumer products: ELF was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at Bernstein and raise tgt to $113 from $60) saying they believe E.L.F has the most relevant operating model for today's consumer -social Media fluency, rapid innovation cycles, and a viral-prone approach to new product development.
Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:
- Lodging/Online travel: BKNG shares rallied behind results as Gross Bookings/Revenue/Adj. EBITDA were 3%/2%/3% ahead of consensus. 3Q26E guidance, however, was below expectations again, with management trimming 2026E Gross Bookings guide to HSD growth on Iran impact/Q2 room nights grew +5% Y/y to 325M, beating the high end of guidance by 1% and gross bookings of $51.0B grew +9% Y/y.
- Casinos & Gaming: WYNN reported a beat driven by mass hold in Macau, while Las Vegas was in-line with low expectations and announces its Wynn Al Marjan Island resort, UAE's first with a casino, expected to open in Sep. 2027; FLUT said the head of its international division Dan Taylor will succeed Peter Jackson, who will step down as group CEO after nine years at helm, which came alongside a lower than expected 45% fall in Q2 core earnings (EBITDA) to $508M, but topped est. $478M though lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast for the fourth successive quarter to $2.65B from $2.87B in May.
- Ride Hailing/delivery sector: UBER posted mixed Q2 results while its sales and profit forecast missed estimates guiding Q3 EPS $0.84-$0.88 vs. est. $0.91 and Gross Bookings of $58.25B-$60.25B, representing growth of 18% to 22% y/y after Q2 gross bookings were $58B, up 24% y/y.
- Leisure activity: CALY posted beats on the top and bottom lines on better GM and raised FY26 adj. EBITDA guidance by ~$31M at the midpoint, reflecting a $22M stronger Q2 vs the Q2 guide, a $3M of organic 2H raise, and $7M from a more favorable tariff rate vs expects post-122 expiry.
- Auto sector: auto supplier BWA topped analysts' estimates for Q2 profit and sales, as benefited from steady demand for powertrain systems and turbochargers; said that it planned to increase its annual R&D spend to help with its lineup catered to data centers; reported Q2 $1.42/$3.65B vs. est. $1.28/$3.56B. LCID reported a wider quarterly loss and unveiled an operational reset focused on improving cash flow and cutting costs. Lucid also announced a plan to generate $1.4B in cash flow improvements during 2026
Energy
- E&P sector: EOG mostly in-line earnings; strong repurchases with production meeting guidance with spending slightly below guidance; TALO raised 2026 production guidance on unchanged capital, despite the sale of 3.5 mboe/d of Shelf assets in July; SU beat consensus expectations despite weather challenges as its asset integration helped bolster upgrader utilization/achieved record cash flow and announced it will increase the size of its share buyback program by more than 40%.
- Solar & Utilities: SEDG shares tumbled following guidance as Q2 results beat on top and bottom line but guided Q3 revs $310M-$340M well below the consensus $367.4M weighing on the rest of the solar complex (ENPH, CSIQ, SHLS, RUN, FSLR); NI in utilities also saw weakness post earnings results as Q2 net income of $45.5M was down from $102.2M y/y saying material costs remain high, driven by tariffs, and high demand, alongside potential project delays, could hurt financial results.
- U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said in weekly data. Crude inventories rose by +2.5 million barrels to 407 million barrels in the week ended July 31, vs expectations for a -1.5 million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by -1.6M barrels vs. est. -1.3M barrel draw and distillate stockpiles fell by -3.5M barrels, the EIA data showed.
Financials
- FinTech: TOST delivered a strong Q2 beat and raised guidance; UPST shares rose after reported an all-time high contribution profit of $193M and adj EBITDA of $76.9M (21% margin)/strong Q2 on the origination front, with total originations up 23% QoQ, core personal loans were up 27%, while Home and Auto reached ~14% of total origination volume and Adj. EBITDA margin jumped ~800 bp QoQ.
- Payments sector: GPN Q2 adjusted revenue rose 34% y/y to $3.16B, slightly missing analyst expectations of $3.17B while adj EPS for Q2 rose 12% and beat analyst expectations; cuts FY26 adjusted EPS view to $13.60-$13.80 from $13.80-$14 (est. $13.79) and cuts FY26 normalized constant currency adjusted net revenue growth to 4%-5% from approximately 5%. FIS downgraded to Neutral at UBS alongside the reduction in FY 2026 revenue and profitability guidance and a number of considerations for FY 2027.
- In Insurance sector: PUK shares tumbled following a report that China is widening its tax enforcement efforts. The report suggests Chinese authorities are expanding the scope of tax scrutiny, raising concerns about potential impacts on companies with exposure to the market.
- Mortgage Services: COMP beat Q2 consensus on revs $4.31B vs. $4.09B and guided Q3 ahead ($3.85B-$4.05B vs est $3.747), despite signs that overall housing market weakened quarter-to-date; OPEN Q2 EPS loss (-$0.03) more than est. loss (-$0.07) and revs fell -44% Y/y to $883M missing est. $905.9M; Q2 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $4M, swinging from a profit; sees Q3 revs growing at least 20% Y/y.
REITs:
- REIT sector: DEI reported 2Q26 FFO that beat cons. (+$0.01) but lowered FY26 FFO guidance by 0.7% (below cons.), primarily due to higher interest rates. Although fundamentals were mixed, leasing remained strong at 960ksf (909ksf prior), driving positive net absorption of 60ksf. DOC 2Q26 FFOA beat cons. by $0.02 on a headline basis, or $0.01 after removing non-recurring income from a seller financing repayment. Management increased guidance by $0.02. MAC reported 2Q26 FFO of $0.35, $0.01 above consensus, while core fundamentals continued to improve. Go-forward NOI growth accelerated to 3.8% y/y from 1.2% in 1Q26, occupancy increased to 95.5% (+100 bps q/q), and the SNO pipeline grew to $124M, within reach of management's $140M target. SKT 2Q Core FFO of $0.64, +$0.03 vs. est. and management raised FY26 FFO guidance by ~1% at the midpoint. Occupancy declined 40 bps sequentially to 96.6%, driven largely by the recapture of five Saks Off 5th boxes, three of which were vacant.
Biotech & Pharma:
- LLY raises FY revs view to $85.0B-$87.0B, from prior $82.0B-$85.0B after Q2 revs $22.97B topped consensus est. $20.59B as Zepbound revs $4.93B (est $4.64B) and Mounjaro revs $9.9B (est $8.83B); said is committed additional $4.5B to expand manufacturing sites. Revenue surged 48% YoY as Mounjaro and Zepbound drove strong volume growth, prompting the company to raise its full-year outlook.
- AMGN reported 2Q diluted non-GAAP EPS of $6.29 on revenue of $10.1B, compared to Street estimates of $5.62 and $9.4B, respectively. Management is now guiding to 2026 total revenue of $38.2B-$39.4B (up from $37.1B-$38.5B), implying annual growth of ~6% at the midpoint.
- BMY shares slipped after Reuters reported this morning that there are "no discussions" ongoing between AZN and Bristol Myers Squibb over a potential deal, citing a senior source close to the matter. Reuters said there never was a deal to be done, and there are no discussions between the companies.
- GILD reported strong Q2 product revenues of $7.6B, ahead of estimates driven by strong performance across the board; management reiterated FY26 Yeztugo guide of C$1B, highlighting strong demand and reported persistence rates >70%.
- TYRA shares sunk as Q2 loss widened on higher R&D expense; said may sell up to $250M of common stock and announced that the update from the Phase II SURF-302 clinical readout with dabogratinib in FGFR3-altered intermediate-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer is pushed to September from August
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- Healthcare Services; CVS Q2 revenue of $106.1B beats analysts' average expectation of $100.11B, and said its Aetna unit reports quarterly medical loss ratio, or the percentage of premiums spent on medical care, of 87.4% from 89.9% a year ago, compared to estimates of 90.03%; raises annual adj. profit between $7.90-$8.10 from prior view of $7.30 to $7.50; announced a revamp of its weight management program, making it easier for eligible adults to access clinical care, navigate medication costs and get ongoing support for GLP-1 therapy through collaboration with LLY
- Healthcare Technology: HNGE reported a top- and bottom-line beat (above the guidance it provided at Investor/Movement Day in early June, and full year guidance was also raised to reflect ~46% growth at 28% margins at the midpoints.
- Ortho sector: ZBH Q2 revs $2.18B topped the $2.13B estimate on better EPS while guides annual profit per share between $8.47-$8.59, above previous expectation of $8.40-$8.55.
- Insulin sector: PODD shares fell after lowering its 2026 revenue growth to be between 20%-22%, compared to its prior view in the 21%-23% range after posting a beat on the top and bottom line for Q2 with EPS $1.66 on revs $801.7M topping ests $1.45/$787.2M.
- MedTech sector: LMAT shares tumbled after Q2 results missed and guided year EPS and revs below consensus; was downgraded to MP from OP at Barrington saying the Q2 miss versus the company's own financial guidance will result in "significant" short-term share price weakness, especially given the premium valuation LeMaitre has carried over the past year.
Industrials & Materials
- Paper & Packaging: BALL was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan while raising tgt to $65 from $60 as views the company's Q2 report as solid. It reduced earnings estimates for 2026 citing a likely higher tax rate and downgraded the shares on valuation.
- Transport sector: EXPD was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan (tgt to $200 from $144) after the company reported another earnings beat, its eighth out of the last nine quarters, and believes Expeditors' momentum should be further supported by an unprecedented restructuring effort.
- Metals & Mining: after a few weeks of consistent pressure on higher oil, rising Treasury yields/dollar and rate hike expectations, gold and silver prices got a bounce today and lifted precious metal miners (NEM, AEM, AG, B, WPM, PAAS, CDE); HL shares rallied with broader miners despite Q2 revs fall -19% q/q to $333.85M on lower metal prices while Q2 adj Ebitda fell -25% sequentially; in industrial metals, VALE was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America.
- Chemicals: CE delivered a mixed Q2 with strong AC margins benefiting from supply chain disruptions and EM growth supported by pricing and mix, but softer Q3 EPS guidance reflects normalization and footprint costs as temporary tailwinds fade; MOS reported a Q2 revenue decline, lower CAPEX outlook
Aerospace & Defense
- SPCX shares fell on higher spending concerns after posting $18.4B in capex in Q2, which compared with just $2.8B in the prior year, which offset a 92% surge in quarterly revs; revenue/EBITDA beats across the board as revs of $7.8B topped the Street's $6.8B; EBITDA of $3.5B also exceeded Street's $2.1B driven primarily by AI segment revenue, as SPCX contracted ~$14B of Cloud Services Agreements in the quarter. SPCX also noted 2Q26 marked its best-ever quarter of Starlink subscriber growth (+1.7M), bringing total Starlink subscribers to ~12M, while ARPU remained flat q/q.
- KTOS reported 2Q EPS of $0.21 vs. Street's $0.14 as revenue of $459M was above the Street's $410M, driven by strength in defense rocket systems; turbine technologies; Valkyrie-related activity; microwave products; and space, training, and cyber (shares were upgraded to Overweight at Piper post results saying the relationship between valuation and forward estimates is far more right sized).
- VSAT posted a Q2 revenue miss despite an EPS beat, as communications and defense trends disappointed and FY growth guidance underwhelmed.
- VVX secured an $87 million firm-fixed-price IDIQ contract to support SUU-79 pylons for the U.S. Navy's F/A-18 Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler aircraft.
AI, Internet, Media & Telecom
- Media sector: DIS Q3 adj EPS $2.06, tops est. $1.86 on revs rising 7% y/y to $25.2B but shy of est. $25.4B; said continue to expect double-digit growth in adjusted EPS in fiscal 2027, excluding the impact of the 53rd week; said it would sell its 50% stake in A+E Global Media to co-owner Hearst Corporation, and use the estimated $1.2 billion in cash proceeds to repurchase Disney shares; Q2 Parks and experiences division reported revenue of nearly $10B, up 10% y/y, fueled by a 4% increase in attendance at its theme parks, globally, and a 3% increase at its domestic parks; Operating income for the experiences segment in Q2 rose 20% to $3 billion; Entertainment group reported a 6% rise to $11.3B in Q2 revenue
- Telecom stocks under pressure early (T, VZ, TMUS) after SpaceX said it plans to build a full Mobile network, aiming to compete with Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile. Using spectrum acquired from EchoStar, SpaceX plans to combine Starlink's Satellite network with terrestrial infrastructure to create a nationwide Mobile service. The announcement overshadowed strong Q2 results, while SpaceX shares fell over 10% after earnings amid concerns over heavy capital spending." Tower stocks (AMT, CCI, SBAC) also weaker as indicated by SpaceX's ambitious plans for its satellite constellation and direct-to-device technology. Rather than relying solely on traditional 5G cellular towers, this phone carrier would use low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites as cell towers.
- AI/Data Center/neocloud sector: GOOGL shares tumbled late morning after the WSJ reported chief scientist Jeff Dean is leaving Google to launch Discovery Loop, an AI startup focused on automating scientific research; WULF Q2 revs of $44.8M was below the $46.4M estimate noting HPC lease revenue comprised 71% of total Q2 revenue and the company signed 20-year Anthropic lease worth up to $33B and agreed to sell Abernathy JV stake for ~$530M; CRWV signed a multi-year agreement with SKHY subsidiary Solidigm for priority access to enterprise SSD capacity, helping secure storage supply as AI cloud demand scales. BTDR was upgraded to Overweight at Cantor after the co announced it has signed a 16-year Ai/HPC colocation and services agreement covering 121 IT MW at its Tydal, Norway campus.
- Internet sector: SHOP shares jumped after Q2 beat/raise, with GMV (=32% to $115.57B), revenue (+34% to $3.58B), margins and FCF all coming in well ahead of expectations, while Q3 rev growth guidance of low 30% vs. ~27% consensus; PINS shares fell as 2Q26 Revenue/Adj EBITDA was 2.8%/15% above consensus as growth benefited from 1pt F/X tailwind, and a ~1pt World Cup tailwind but Q3 guidance was softer, with revenue/Adj EBITDA 0.1%/2.7% above consensus (midpoint).
- Ad tech sector: APPS shares surged after the company beat FQ1 revenue and earnings expectations and issued stronger-than-expected full-year guidance. Revenue jumped 27% Y/Y to $166M, fueled by a 56% surge in its App Growth Platform segment, driven by strength in its demand-side brand business and the DT Exchange/guided FY2027 revenue in the range of $650M-$670M, which is above consensus
Hardware & Software movers:
- Networking & Communications: ANET shares jumped as Q2 results meaningfully beat expectations, with revenue accelerating to ~38% and 2026 guidance raised to 40%, benefited by 1) Ai networking Cycle, 2) expanding TAM into the Campus; and 3) and core front-end data center business showing steady growth.
- Software movers: ZETA shares slip as weak full-year profit outlook overshadows revenue beat; Co forecasts FY26 profit in the range of $0.09-$0.11 vs. est. $0.16. BL EPS beat, but weak 6% billings growth and deal slippage overshadowed otherwise solid RPO trends, raising concerns about the pace of growth reacceleration into 2027; FRSH beat/raise as strong enterprise growth and rising Freddy AI adoption drove another rev beat and early GAAP profitability
- Security Software: QLYS posted one of its strongest quarters in recent history as revenue growth accelerated a point to +11% Y/y and ST Billings growth accelerated into the mid- teens range for the first time in 2+ years, driven by strength in ETM and Patch Management and 2026 revenue guide was raised by $11M at the midpoint (vs. $4M quarterly beat).
Semiconductors:
- AMD posted solid 2Q results and 3Q guidance, which were slightly higher than consensus. Strong growth was driven by Data Center, which grew +107% y/ y, as server CPU grew >+70%, AI GPU revs of $2.9B (+190%); sees 2H26 server CPU rev growth of +80% y/y and +70% in 2027 and sees DC revs more than doubling in 2027 with AI GPUs growing well over 100% (solid but fell short of high expectations).
- Earnings tonight in memory space with SNDK, WDC results on deck.
- Reuters reported Samsung Electronics and SKHY are evaluating chipmaking equipment from China's Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) for possible use at their Chinese factories, three people familiar with the matter said, as the South Korean firms hedge against the risk of tighter U.S. export controls. The memory chipmakers began testing AMEC etching equipment about two years ago, when uncertainty was mounting over whether Washington would continue allowing them to import U.S. chipmaking tools into China, two of the sources said.
- ALAB posted a Q2 beat/raise as Scorpio switch ramp is arriving earlier than expected, driving a huge Q3 guide and accelerating the AI fabric growth story.
- LSCC reported strong 2Q results and higher 3Q guidance, with growth mostly driven by DC revs, as Compute & Comms grew +83% y/y, with AI DC revs on track to hit 25% of revs this year; Industrial & Auto revs grew +36% y/y in 2Q.