Early Look

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Just 12 hours after stock markets tumbled on rising interest rate hike expectations given the “hawkish” FOMC meeting on Wednesday, boosting Treasury yields across the board, U.S. futures are surging as Nasdaq futures +1.6% or 480 points to 30,480, erasing all of yesterday's declines and S&P futures are up near 1%. The signing of the interim US-Iran peace deal is overshadowing concerns about rising interest rates following yesterday's FOMC meeting commentary. The Fed's rate-setting stance skewed hawkish, the first meeting with new Chairman Kevin Warsh, pressuring US equities as the Dow fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 1.3%. The 2-Year Treasury yield spiked 16.9 bps Wednesday to end the day at 4.21% as the bond market is now pricing in 2 rate hikes this year (at the start of the year it was pricing in 2 rate cuts). The yen falls to its lowest levels since 2024 against the US dollar, raising Japanese BoJ intervention, just a few days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to highest levels in decades.

However, stock futures jump as President Trump and his Iranian counterpart on Wednesday signed the memo outlining their countries' peace agreement, a move previously expected on Friday. The deal went into effect on Thursday, potentially speeding up the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. Negotiations on more protracted issues, including Tehran's nuclear program, are expected to take place over the next 60 days. Oil prices dropped over 2% on the news, with Brent crude futures sinking below $78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate falling toward $74 a barrel.

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered a more hawkish-than-expected policy message and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the central bank's inflation-fighting stance. Treasury yields surged, the dollar rallied, and rate-cut hopes were pushed further into the future. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged again to another all-time highs, rising 1,151 points or 1.65% to 71,053, the Shanghai Index fell -17 points to 4,090, the Hang Seng Index declined -387 points to 23,924, and the Kospi closed at an all-time high rising around 3%. In Europe, the German DAX is up 22 points to 24,957, while the FTSE 100 is down -105 points to 10,402. Today will be the last day of trading for Wall Street stock markets, which will close on Friday to observe the Juneteenth holiday.

@Bluekurtic noted on X, “On Kevin Warsh 's first FOMC day as Fed Chair, S&P 500 fell 1.2%, extending the streak to four negative first fed meeting days for new Chairs. It marks only the third 1%+ decline on a first fed meeting day, and the largest drop since Greenspan in 1987.”

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -506.51 points, or 0.59%, to 51,493.16
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -354.69 points, or 1.34%, to 26,021.66
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -21.20 points, or 0.72% to 2,918.01

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.795M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for June…est. 10.0
• 10:00 AM ET                 Leading Index Change M/M for May…est. +0.1%
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC Flows for April

• Earnings After the Close: None

• The Swiss National Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday, saying its medium-term price outlook had barely changed despite a recent uptick in inflation stoked by higher fuel costs arising from the Iran war.

• Smith & Wesson (SWBI) Q4 EPS $0.36 and sales rose 26.7% y/y to $178.4M; Q4 Gross margin was 29.8% compared with 28.8% in the comparable quarter last year; handgun units >80% of shipments, sporting goods channel +23.2% YoY, new products 37.5% of revenue; said expects firearm industry demand in fiscal 2027 to be slightly higher than fiscal 2026.

• Enphase (ENPH) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight and raise tgt to $51 from $30 citing the company's emerging solid-state transformer data center opportunity for the upgrade, while Enphase continues to face residential solar headwinds in the near-term.
• HawkEye 360's (HAWK) Cluster 14 satellites have reached Full Operational Capacity, or FOC, adding new collection capability to the company's space-based signals intelligence constellation.
• Nucor (NUE) guides Q2 adj EPS $4.5-$4.6 per diluted share vs. est. $4.27 and earnings to increase across all segments versus Q1; steel mills segment to benefit from $130M cash refunds in Q2 2026; Q2 2026 guidance includes $61M non-cash benefit from Helion investment
• Safe Bulkers (SB) Q1 26 Rev $74.4Mm vs. est. $65.5Mm (beat); adj EPS $0.18 vs est $0.11; adj EBITDA $40.7Mm vs est $34.15Mm; TCE $17,095/day; div $0.06/share common (payable July 16)

• Large U.S. banks on Thursday will formally pitch the central bank on tweaks to a Federal Reserve proposal aimed at reducing the funds they must set aside to absorb potential losses, as the central bank enters the last leg of a marathon overhaul of U.S. capital rules.

• Kardigan (KARD) 25M share IPO priced at $16.00 as the deal size was increased to 25.0M from 23.3M shares and priced at high end of $14.00-$16.00 range.
• Legend Biotech (LEGN) 7.7M share Spot Secondary priced at $29.35.
• Pfizer (PFE) said that finance chief Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on August 15 to take a role in the consumer goods industry. Pfizer named Cecile Guegan, senior vice president of finance for its global biopharmaceutical business, as interim CFO, effective August 16.

• Apple (AAPL) is preparing a second-generation iPhone Air for spring 2027 and current prototypes now in advanced testing add a second rear camera for ultrawide-angle photography, Bloomberg reported saying Apple also is working to improve the battery life, according to the report.
• Accenture (ACN) Q3 EPS $3.80 vs consensus $3.71; Q3 revs $18.7B vs. est. $18.74B; narrows FY26 adjusted EPS view to $13.78-$13.90 from $13.65-$13.90 (est. $13.85) as now expects full-year revenue growth to be 3% to 4% in local currency; now expects revenue growth to be 4% to 5% in local currency. Prior view was full-year revenue growth of 3% to 5% in local currency. ACN will buy a majority stake in Dragos and fully acquire runZero and NetRise in a combined deal valued at $4.18B.
• AXT Inc. (AXTI) disclosed that its subsidiary Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology entered into a long-term supply agreement with Nanjing Casela Technologies; AXT's Tongmei secures $25.4M long-term indium phosphide wafer supply agreement
• Bell Canada (BCE), Cohere, Hypertec and BUZZ High Performance Computing (HPC), a subsidiary of Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE) announced a major AI infrastructure deal, marking a significant step forward in the development and deployment of advanced AI workloads on sovereign Canadian infrastructure.
• Intel Corp. (INTC) shares jump after President Trump said Thursday in a post on Truth Social that Apple (AAPL) had agreed to partner with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the United States." Intel had reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips for Apple, following negotiations that lasted more than a year, the Wall Street Journal reported in May.
• Sk Hynix said it has shipped samples ‌of its latest high-bandwidth memory (HBM) ​chips to major customers. The next-generation 12-layer HBM4E ⁠chip reaches speeds of up to 16 gigabits per ​second per ​pin ​and offers over ‌20% better power efficiency than previous models, the company said.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Stock market strength remains astounding, with every dip continuing to be bought, erasing all of yesterday's declines as the signing of the interim US-Iran peace deal on Wednesday overshadows concerns about rising interest rates following yesterday's FOMC meeting commentary. Stock markets slumped on Wednesday, ending near the lows after the U.S. FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75 as expected, but Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) skewed decidedly hawkish. The median FOMC interest rate forecast for 2026 was upwardly revised to 3.75% (from 3.375%), driven by 9 out of 18 members projecting further tightening ahead, including six who anticipate a 50-bps hike. However, futures jumped overnight and held gains this morning following news that Washington and Tehran have electronically signed an interim accord. The deal, which extends the active Middle East ceasefire by granting key financial concessions to Iran, allowed both countries to spin a domestic victory and provided a major geopolitical sigh of relief for risk assets. Oil prices are lower, while the dollar and short term yields rise.

While stock market strength remains broad based, there is no question that the daily surge in semiconductor stocks (SOX) is doing the bulk of leading in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with the PHLX Semi Index (SOX) trading at new all-time highs rising 5.4% around 14,200 as semis continue to lead the charge, up about 100% this year. At the same time, the brief rebound in software names last month is all but gone (IGV), down across the board today with the rotation into semis continuing. Even Mag 7 names have been lagging with MSFT, AMZN, META among names failing to rally with the Nasdaq. Energy stocks have been tumbling (XLE -7% this month) on the decline in oil prices.

The US dollar surges as EUR/USD hit a 2-1/2-month low of 1.1460 in early NY, it traded down -0.34, while the Japanese yen falls to lowest levels since 2024 vs the greenback, raising fears about potential BoJ intervention just days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. US/Iran sign agreement to end conflict and reopen Strait of Hormuz; deal entered into force following remote signing by Trump and Iranian leadership, with delegations set to meet in Switzerland on Friday for nuclear talks. June FOMC was clearly hawkish: 9 policymakers projected hikes in '26 & inflation forecasts were marked up significantly. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh leaned hawkish too, emphasizing restoration of price stability.

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% in June, judging it would be premature to raise rates now given the unclear strength of increased inflation pressures. The Central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, after external member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill in calling for a quarter-point rate rise. Also today, the Swiss National Bank left its Benchmark interest rate unchanged, saying its medium-term price outlook had barely changed despite a recent uptick in inflation stoked by higher fuel costs from the Iran war.

Wall Street is bracing for the largest options expiration event in history on Thursday, June 18, with approximately $8.3 trillion in U.S. options exposure set to roll off in a single session, 18% above the previous record of roughly $7.1 trillion set in December 2025. The event carries an unusual wrinkle: what would normally be a third-Friday triple witching has been shifted one day earlier because U.S. markets will be closed Friday, June 19, for the Juneteenth federal holiday.  

• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 226,000 from 230,000 and in-line with consensus 225,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 223,250 from 219,250 prior week (previous 219,000); continued claims climbed to 1.810M from 1.786M prior and above consensus 1.795M.

• Semi equipment: the sector continues to see new all-time highs for likes of AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, MKSI and others in recent days/weeks. B Riley said today they sees a multi-year Memory Cycle beginning, with AMAT Systems demand tracking above its modeled ICHR levels, and believe revenue could rise over 2x, to ~$1.8B+ in CY28E from $0.850B in CY24. GM expansion looks increasingly structural. Near-term catalysts are MU's 6/24 print, Samsung's early-July preliminary Q226, and late-July Sk Hynix/Samsung updates.
• In Brokers & Exchanges: CME was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette saying the recent selloff in shares creates an extremely attractive risk/reward, attributing the pullback to perceived perpetual futures risk. KBW says this is overblown in general for exchanges and CME specifically given the company's low retail exposure and index licenses in equities products. Separately, CME sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and its Chairman Michael Selig over the regulator allowing perpetual futures tied to the price of cryptocurrencies.

• HIVE +5%; as Bell Canada, Cohere, Hypertec and BUZZ High Performance Computing (HPC), a subsidiary of HIVE announced a major AI infrastructure deal, marking a significant step forward in the development and deployment of advanced AI workloads on sovereign Canadian infrastructure.
• INTC +7%; shares jump after President Trump said Thursday in a post on Truth Social that AAPL had agreed to partner with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the U.S." Intel had reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips for Apple, the WSJ reported in May.
• SWBI +20%; shares surged on better earnings results as Q4 sales rose 26.7% y/y to $178.4M on higher margins of 29.8% vs. 28.8% y/y saying new products were 37.5% of revs, w/sales growth driven by handgun shipments, accounted for more than 80% of total units shipped
• TTWO +4%; shares jumped after Rockstar Games noted on X, "Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers.”
• WPRT +8%; as announces that Cespira, its Joint venture with Volvo Group, and Volvo Group have signed a development agreement to finalize the integration and commercialization of Cespira’s HPDI™ fuel system technology to enable Volvo Group’s 13-litre Engine to run on hydrogen

• KR -6%; posted mixed Q1 results as adj EPS $1.58 misses est. $1.59 but revs $46.1B above the est. $45.45B as Identical Sales without fuel increased 1.0%; Reaffirms identical sales without fuel growth of 1.0% to 2.0%, adjusted FIFO operating profit of $5B to $5.2B, and adj EPS of $5.10-$5.30.
• NVCR -19%; after saying its cancer treatment for newly diagnosed brain tumors did not meet the main goal of a late-stage study.
• PFE -3%; said that finance chief Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on August 15 to take a role in the consumer goods industry. Pfizer named Cecile Guegan, senior vice president of finance for its global biopharmaceutical business, as interim CFO, effective August 16.
• SPCX -5%; after ending Wednesday down 5% -- the first time the rocket and artificial-intelligence company has closed in the red since its trading debut Friday.

Closing Recap

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

In a surprise “hawkish” shift for rate policy, U.S. stock markets pulled back off intraday highs as stock markets now fully price a 25bp Fed rate hike before year-end following the FOMC new rate projections. Markets took the news that 50% of FOMC members (9 of 18) penciling in one rate hike minimum for 2026 as Iran-war price shock crushes consumers as a hawkish surprise. The updated policy statement removed language that had been used to flag the likelihood of further reductions in borrowing costs this year. New projections show inflation slowing sharply next year, allowing rates to return to where they are now by the end of 2027 and easing modestly further in 2028. Treasury yields and the US dollar soared after the release of the policy statement and projections, weighing on sentiment, while precious metals reversed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its winning streak for the week, pulling back off all time highs.

Kevin Warsh's 1st press conference begins with 3 big messages: 1) Inflation: "This committee will deliver price stability" 2) No forward guidance. "We agreed [it] was not well suited for the current policy juncture." Dot Plot will continue, but Warsh won't participate; 3) Warsh launching 5 task forces to "propose next steps" for policymaker consideration, including on Fed communication. Warsh says the Fed has given markets "a new chapter for the central bank," and acknowledges "this is a lot of change for financial markets to digest." Says he won't be particularly intrigued by how markets react in the first minutes or days, but markets and the public "must know Fed will deliver on price stability." Adds the Fed needs to make sure price changes in oil, eggs, beef, and the like don't broaden across the economy.

Stock markets dipped notably after the rate projections were released at 2:00 pm et which showed greater chances of rate hikes this year, which sunk bonds (boosting yields), as well as sectors leveraged to rates such as Smallcaps and homebuilders, etc. As new Fed Chairman Warsh spoke, markets regained solid footing as the big dip in semis and AI names after the 2:00 announcement were bought aggressively, lifting broader markets despite a sharp decline in large cap tech today (META, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN). Sharp declines in Consumer Staples (XLP), REITs (XLRE), Communications (XLC) and Healthcare (XLV). Lots of volatility as the first meeting with Warsh as chair had a little something for everyone.

In a quick synopsis of the Fed meeting/presser: They held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the real story was the shift in tone as their easing bias was removed, the 2026 dot plot moved higher, while core PCE inflation forecast raised to 3.3% and policymakers now see a hike as more likely than a cut…and still, markets were down only slightly just off record highs for major averages. Other items to watch this week include quad witching as a $5.15 trillion worth of options on the S&P 500 are set to expire on June 19th, the largest monthly expiration on record. This is led by the S&P 500 index options, which account for $4.84 trillion of the total. The remaining $307 billion consists of options on the S&P 500 ETF.

• April Business Inventories +0.5% while U.S. April inventory/sales ratio 1.31 months' worth vs March 1.32 months; U.S. April business sales +1.2% vs March +2.2% (prev +2.1%).
• May pending home sales: +3.8% M/M vs. +0.9% consensus and +0.3% prior (revised from +1.4%), according to data released by the National Association of Realtors.

• Fed officials' median view of Fed funds rate at end-2026 3.8% (prev 3.4%), Fed officials' median view of Fed funds rate at end-2027 3.6% (prev 3.1%), Fed officials' median view of Fed funds rate at end-2028 3.4% (prev 3.1%) and Fed officials' median view of Fed funds rate in longer run 3.1% (prev 3.1 %).
• Fed projections imply 25 basis points of rate hikes in 2026, followed by 25 bps of rate cuts in 2027 and another 25 bps of cuts in 2028. Fed projections show PCE inflation not expected to return to 2.0% target until 2028, unchanged from March projection. Fed policymakers see 4.3% unemployment rate at end of 2026 versus 4.4% in March projections. Fed policymakers see end-2026 PCE inflation at 3.6% versus 2.7% in March; core seen at 3.3% versus 2.7%. Fed policymakers see 2.2% GDP growth in 2026 versus 2.4% in March, see longer-run growth at 2.0% vs 2.0% in March

• U.S. crude oil futures settle at $76.79/bbl, up 74 cents, or 0.97%, snapping a string of several declines while Brent crude futures settle at $79.55/bbl, up 59 cents, or 0.75%. August gold rises +$27.00 or +0.62%, to settle at $4,381.40 but spot gold prices fell sharply after the Fed signals potential rate hikes ahead. July silver gained +$0.75/oz, or +1.08%, at $70.77 an ounce, but also reversed lower following the FOMC.

• Housing: CVCO and SKY shares were strong early after last night Senate leaders reached a final deal on a revised version of the comprehensive housing legislation, which includes multiple provisions to boost manufactured housing. The Senate then took a key procedural step forward. Both co’s are seen as pure-play manufactured/modular housing producers and stand to benefit from these reforms.

• Auto retail: sector was weak as KMX shares slide following results; Q1 revs rose 6% Y/y to $8B vs. est. $7.41B; Q1 EPS fell -5.1% Y/y to $1.31; Q1 Gross profit declined 4.4% Y/y due to lower retail unit margins from pricing actions; shares of CVNA declined in sympathy.

• Gas sector: shares of LNG, VG were weak Tuesday after Qatar is beginning to bring its LNG tankers back to the Middle East as it prepares to ramp-up exports. At least 5 empty Qatar-linked tankers linked are returning after being idle. 4 more ships in Gulf of Oman. Qatar hasn’t sent an empty LNG ship through Hormuz in 3+ months.
• In Chemicals: FMC entered a co-exclusive supply and license agreement with CTVA for rimisoxafen herbicide technology in North and South American corn, soybean markets. Corteva will make an initial prepurchase payment of $200M for product supplied by FMC.

• Exchanges: CME shares fell after Terry Duffy will step down as Chief Executive Officer and transition to executive Chairman of the board in March 2027; President and CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick will be appointed CEO. CBOE fell for a 5th straight day and falling further below its 200dma support around $274 as exchanges along with CME remain pressured on the perceived competitive risk of perpetual futures.
• Digital platforms: FIG shares bounced, snapping an 11 day losing streak after Citigroup initiated at Buy and $36 tgt as  believes the company's ramping AI traction will dive significant upside to consensus estimates.
• Insurance: PGR May net premiums earned $7.36 billion, up 10% and May net premiums written $7.03 billion, up 6%; May combined ratio improves to 82.1 from 86.9; total pretax net realized gains on securities $215 million.

• JAZZ and ABCL announce collaboration to discover next-generation T-cell engaging Mult specific antibodies; the collaboration includes $56M upfront and up to $792M option fees per program; Jazz has exclusive option to develop and commercialize antibodies from collaboration.
• QURE shares jump after saying it plans to apply for regulatory approval to market one of its primary investigational gene therapies as a treatment for Huntington's disease; said the FDA told the company that a three-year analysis from a study of UniQure's AMT-130 drug would be acceptable as the primary basis for a Biologics License Application to accelerate approval of the drug.
• Shares of CLPT, REPL, BHVN, PTCT, NTLA, CAPR, SRPT several Biotech/rare-disease and Neuro/gene therapy stocks are rising with QURE’s news today with the FDA accepting 3-year Phase 1/2 data for accelerated BLA submission in HD, reversing earlier setbacks - signals a potentially favorable FDA stance on innovative Therapies for rare/neurodegenerative diseases.
• VSTM announced positive updated safety and efficacy results from the RAMP 205 Phase 1b/2a; Recommended Phase 2 Dose cohort of 29 patients evaluating avutometinib plus defactinib in combination w/gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel in first-line metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
• SPRO shares fell as partner GSK said the FDA approved oral antibiotic to treat complicated urinary tract infections. The approval makes GSK's drug the first oral carbapenem, a class of antibiotics which are widely used for the treatment of drug-resistant gram-negative bacterial infections.

• Medical Equipment: RMD was downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $230 from $286 noting recent commentary from key component suppliers highlights pricing increases, with FX movements likely to present incremental near-term headwinds. The firm sees price increases and further operational efficiencies as potential offsets.

• LDOS was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America and lowered tgt to $125 from $200 as they now see downward pressure in the near term for their healthcare unit as the Defense Health Agency works on trying to work directly with suppliers in the Defense Healthcare Management System Modernization maintenance phase

• Semiconductors (SOX) looked to rebound with shares higher after the SOX fell 5% off all-time highs reached on Monday with early gains for INTC, NVDA, MU and MRVL among others, though the standouts in the sector are equipment stocks with AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ASML, TER all jumping.
• AEHR received a follow-on production order for a fully automated Fox-XP wafer-level burn-in system from a major silicon Photonics customer. System is configured to test nine wafers in parallel, including an Integrated WaferPak Auto Aligner and a set of Fox WaferPak Contactors
• AMD price tgt raised to $600 from $525 at Bernstein as the firm continues to see AMD as a key beneficiary of AI and data center demand.
• MU price tgt raised to $1,200 from $840 at Citigroup, reflecting increased confidence in Micron's AI and memory market outlook as the firm continues to view Micron as a key beneficiary of rising AI-driven demand for memory products.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, June 18, 2026

• JBL Barclays raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $426 from $304 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's fiscal Q3 results beat estimates and fiscal 2026 outlook moved higher given intelligent infrastructure strength in Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Jabil has a strong AI outlook for fiscal 2027.
• ENPH Barclays analyst Christine Cho upgraded Enphase Energy to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $51, up from $30. The firm cites the company's "emerging" solid-state transformer data center opportunity for the upgrade. While Enphase continues to face residential solar headwinds in the near-term, the company's solid-state transformer initiative represents a "credible" entry into the evolving data center power stack, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays says the company opened up a $2B annual total addressable market. Enphase's early traction should support multiple expansion despite limited financial contribution until 2028, contends the firm.
• KMX Barclays raised the firm's price target on CarMax to $37 from $31 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company's Q1 earnings beat was likely driven more by market conditions than operational improvements, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm is "encouraged" by the steps CarMax is taking to right-size the business. It believes the company's focus on improving operations could limit its growth in fiscal 2027.
• QURE Barclays upgraded uniQure to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $65 price target.

• STLD BofA lowered the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $280 from $285 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm trimmed its Q2 adjusted EPS view to $3.66 from $4.46 and 2026 EPS forecast to $17.00 from $17.92 to reflect the company's guidance update.
• PGR BofA analyst Joshua Shanker lowered the firm's price target on Progressive to $313 from $331 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported May results. The firm's 2028 margin-normalized EPS forecast is down to $16.60 from $17.08 previously due to a higher tax rate, the analyst noted.
• DEO BofA analyst Andrea Pistacchi lowered the firm's price target on Diageo to $99 from $104 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of Diageo hosting its Capital Markets Day meeting on August 6. Progress will likely take time and FY27 is likely to represent a transition year, but the firm believes early signs of improved execution in U.S. or simply a moderation in share losses should be sufficient to support sentiment, the analyst tells investors.
• SSL BofA lowered the firm's price target on Sasol to ZAR 200 from ZAR 222 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. BofA's commodity team has cut its 2026 and 2027 Brent forecasts driven by a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, notes the analyst, who cut the firm's FY27 EBITDA estimate for Sasol by about 20%.

• NOV Citi raised the firm's price target on NOV Inc. to $22 from $20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm believes the equipment oilfield services sector will improve in 2027 as active deepwater rig count returns to its previous peak of 135 in 2028. Citi expects offshore production equipment order growth next year.
• OII Citi analyst Scott Gruber raised the firm's price target on Oceaneering to $40 from $35 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm believes the equipment oilfield services sector will improve in 2027 as active deepwater rig count returns to its previous peak of 135 in 2028. Citi expects offshore production equipment order growth next year.
• FTI Citi raised the firm's price target on TechnipFMC to $80 from $76 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes the equipment oilfield services sector will improve in 2027 as active deepwater rig count returns to its previous peak of 135 in 2028. Citi expects offshore production equipment order growth next year.
• ALB Citi analyst Patrick Cunningham upgraded Albemarle to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $225. The company will benefit from "structural lithium demand tailwinds," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes Albemarle's growth opportunities are being underappreciated at current share levels. It is skeptical that the lithium market will "flip to a meaningful glut."
• COST Citi resumed coverage of Costco with a Neutral rating and $1,020 price target. The firm sees Costco as market share gainer over the long term but views the stock's risk/reward as balanced at current share levels.

• CAG Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers lowered the firm's price target on Conagra Brands to $12 from $14 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm reduced fiscal 2027 estimates ahead of Conagra's earnings report to reflect ongoing cost headwinds and "lackluster" consumption trends in scanned channels. Conagra will utilize its recent CEO-transition as an opportunity to rebase earnings, remove the current overhang around capital allocation by resetting its dividend payout lower, and make more aggressive reinvestments to grow the sales, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• JBL Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $482 from $384 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Jabil delivered a strong quarter with results modestly above expectations and guidance implying upside from accelerating AI-related revenue growth and expanding margins through FY27, reinforcing confidence in its positioning across secular growth markets despite muted initial stock reaction due to elevated expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• QURE Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter raised the firm's price target on uniQure to $46 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Shares moved sharply higher after the company announced plans to pursue accelerated approval for AMT-130 in Huntington's disease following FDA feedback supporting use of three-year Phase 1/2 data as the primary basis for filing, materially advancing the expected approval timeline while shifting focus to confirmatory study alignment, upcoming four-year durability data, and eventual regulatory review outcomes, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• DT Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Martino raised the firm's price target on Dynatrace to $50 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following management discussions that addressed concerns around slower Q4 net new annual recurring revenue growth and ambitious FY27 guidance, the firm's confidence in Dynatrace's FY27 outlook has improved as management attributed recent softness largely to Europe while outlining multiple drivers that support a credible path to reaccelerating growth with potential upside as the year progresses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• TRGP Jefferies initiated coverage of Targa Resources with a Buy rating and $314 price target. The firm has conviction that Targa will sustain its premium growth through FY30, noting that consensus is yet to underwrite the full potential, particularly in FY29 and FY30. The premium growth profile is more durable than the Street's expectation, argues the analyst, who sees "clear upside to consensus estimates" in FY28 and beyond.
• VLRS Jefferies analyst Alejandro Anibal Demichelis initiated coverage of Volaris with a Hold rating and $10 price target. The U.S. and Iran conflict de-escalation has improved the near term sector outlook for Latin American airlines, says the analyst, who still sees a case for traffic decelerating due to sluggish economic growth in Latin America. In the mid-term, however, the firm sees the sector being supported by increasing air travel penetration and more rational competition, the analyst added.
• CPA Jefferies initiated coverage of Copa Holdings with a Buy rating and $185 price target. The U.S. and Iran conflict de-escalation has improved the near term sector outlook for Latin American airlines, says the analyst, who still sees a case for traffic decelerating due to sluggish economic growth in Latin America. In the mid-term, however, the firm sees the sector being supported by increasing air travel penetration and more rational competition, the analyst added.

• MRVL KeyBanc analyst John Vinh raised the firm's price target on Marvell to $385 from $260 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm recently hosted investor meetings with Marvell and left more constructive around the DC networking opportunity, particularly around Scale Up, where silicon photonics and the acquisition of Celestial AI will help the company differentiate. Given the arch shifts in DC, KeyBanc views networking should increasingly be a focus for investors, as it views it as more durable vs. custom XPUs, where despite line of sight to $10B by FY29, the sustainability appears less clear long-term.

• DUK Mizuho analyst Anthony Crowdell lowered the firm's price target on Duke Energy to $135 from $139 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Despite near-term regulatory "noise," Mizuho remains confident in Duke's ability to execute, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm continues to monitor North Carolina SB 730, which would block coal retirements until a 1,000 megawatt nuclear certificate of public convenience and necessity is issued.

• TSN Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery lowered the firm's price target on Tyson Foods to $78 from $80 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says chicken continues to perform very well, more than offsetting incremental packer margin pressure in Beef, which was worse than expected in May/June. Importantly, New World Screwworm risk looks manageable for Tyson, Piper argues.

• JKHY RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Jack Henry to $173 from $180 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes that its prior bullish thesis driving its December upgrade is correctly playing out as the company had 43 new core deals year-to-date vs. 28 at the same point last year, as well as those wins being with larger institutions and with larger contract value, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds however that shares are "more dislocated than before", and the firm is cutting its price target given the continued re-rating in fintech.
• DHC RBC Capital analyst Michael Carroll raised the firm's price target on Diversified Healthcare Trust to $8 from $6 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company has made solid progress repositioning its in-place SHOP and is now more active pursuing revenue-generating projects, the analyst tells investors in a research note. This should drive healthy earnings growth over the next few years, the firm added.
• KMX RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on CarMax to $45 from $41 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company's Q1 results were "largely positive", and the management deserves credit for moving quickly to address price competitiveness, reconditioning cost/speed, and digital ease of use, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds it is encouraged by progress to date and customer response, though it would also like to see continued improvement beyond Q1.

• BXP As previously reported, Scotiabank upgraded BXP to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $70, up from $65. The leasing pace has been strong since the investor day last September, which will help improve FFO per share growth, says the analyst, who also views the relative valuation as attractive within the office REIT group.
• REXR Scotiabank upgraded Rexford Industrial to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $36, down from $38. The stock's valuation "has finally caught up to a challenged" funds from operations growth story in Southern California, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm now believes most of the downside is priced into Rexford shares. It believes the company is addressing the stock's valuation disconnect to private markets today with accretive buybacks while the market is "starting to find its bottom."
• EPRT As previously reported, Scotiabank upgraded Essential Properties Realty Trust to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $33, down from $34. The stocks "sits at an attractive entry point" relative to AFFO per share earnings growth potential versus REITs and a continued pull-back in valuation, the analyst tells investors. The higher earnings growth and peer-leading investment spread should also help Essential Properties better absorb the risk of higher rates, the analyst contends.

• MU Stifel raised the firm's price target on Micron to $1,500 from $550 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is increasing its estimates "significantly above consensus" to reflect another big, upward shift in AI-driven demand, noting that it now models a DRAM average selling price per gigabyte ex-HBM that is more than twice what was implied by Micron's initial outlook.
• SLB Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro raised the firm's price target on SLB to $64 from $61 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company provided a comprehensive overview of its deep Digital capabilities and key differentiators at its Digital Investor day event.
• PEB Stifel raised the firm's price target on Pebblebrook Hotel to $20.25 from $18 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after having hosted meetings with the management team. The firm expects shares to continue to work from here as lodging fundamentals remain strong, minimal new supply comes online, and its portfolio should outperform, the analyst tells investors.
• JBL Stifel raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $460 from $430 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company delivered a "beat-and-raise" quarterly report. The firm believes the multi-year setup has strengthened, benefited by diversified end-market improvements, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

• JBL UBS raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $430 from $380 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. A strong preliminary FY27 AI outlook is overshadowing a FY26 guide that was in-line with expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• NUE Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Nucor to $283 from $292 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2's $4.50-$4.60 EPS guide topped consensus at $4.21, but trailed Wells' $4.91 despite a $130M one time refund. The firm thinks intersegment eliminations hurt the quarter.
• STLD Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $291 from $293 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2's mid-quarter EPS guidance at $3.51-$3.55 missed FactSet consensus at $4.16 and its $4.43 as higher sheet costs squeezed its fabricated product segment margins. Wells trims estimates, but stays constructive on free cash flow optionality and upside to steel/aluminum margins.
• SWK Wells Fargo analyst Joseph O'Dea raised the firm's price target on Stanley Black & Decker to $90 from $80 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm spent yesterday with the company's CFO Pat Hallinan/IR Michael Wherley in Toronto. Tone was upbeat, in-line with Wells' CEO fireside last week.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: none

• Needham Boston Biotech Bus Tour, 6/22-6/23, in Boston, MA

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, June-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, June-flash
• 9:45AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, June-flash
• 10:00 AM ET                 Richmond Fed Index for June
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: FDX KBH WOR

• Northland June Growth Virtual Conference, 6/23 (virtual)

• 8:30 AM ET                   Current Account Balance for Q1
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for May
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: FUL MLKN MU TCOM WS

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q1 final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q1-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q1-final
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices Q1-final
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Prices Q1-final
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Income M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Durable Goods Orders for May
• 8:30 AM ET                   Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transports for May
• 10:00 AM ET                 Dallas Fed PCE for May
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for June
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AOUT CGEH FDXF

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, June-final
• 10:00 AM Et                  University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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