Closing Recap
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -112.81 | 0.21% | 53,464 |
S&P 500 | -1.45 | 0.02% | 7,675 |
Nasdaq | -21.10 | 0.08% | 26,130 |
Russell 2000 | -4.12 | 0.14% | 3,005 |
US equity futures were pretty much flat coming out of overnight with the summer slowdown in effect and no big earnings last night to move markets. That said, the pre-market release of PCE, Core PCE and GDP data was sufficiently close to expectations to remove an overhang and allow investors to resume buying and push the S&P briefly into the green in early regular session trading. In sentiment, today’s Fear & Greed Index held at 58/100 (Greed) versus last week’s 57 (Greed) but well ahead of last month's 41 (Fear).
By mid-morning, sellers had taken control with breadth favoring decliners by 5:4 though small caps outperformed with IWM (-0.09%) versus SPY (-0.11%) and QQQ (-0.27%). SPY breadth favored advancers by 14:9 while QQQ breadth favored decliners by 10:7. On a sector basis, Industrials (+1.18%), Energy (+1.07%) and Utilities (+0.76%) were early outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Communications (-0.38%), Health Care (-0.39%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.59%) paced the underperformers with 5 sectors gaining versus 6 declining.
Heading into the final hour of trading, and ahead of NVDA earnings after the bell, stocks had spent most of the day treading water and remained relatively flat, though recovered to be at or near the best levels of the day. Breadth remained in favor of decliners by 6:5 as both SPY and QQQ ended slightly red on the day. Now we wait for NVDA to report and guide tomorrow’s trading.
Economic Data
- July Core PCE Price Index (ex: food and energy) rose +0.2% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus and +0.1% prior, while core PCE rose +3.3% y/y vs. +3.3% consensus and +3.3% prior. Headline July PCE price index (including food and energy) rose +0.2% m/m vs. +0.1% consensus and -0.1% prior and headline PCE rose +3.7% y/y vs. +3.3% consensus and +3.7% prior. Personal income for July rose a better +0.4% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus .
- U.S. Q2 GDP 2nd Estimate actual 1.5%, in-line with forecast 1.5% and prior 1.5% and +2.1% in the prior quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures PCE) for Q2 +3.4%, annual rate, vs. +3.2% in initial estimate and +0.5% prior. Corporate profits rose at a rate of 8.2%, compared to the 0.5% growth seen in Q1 2026.
- The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances increased last week to 6.78%. Total mortgage application volume dropped 1% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index while applications to refinance a home loan fell 17% from the same week y/y and applications for a mortgage to buy a home were 5% lower than a year ago.
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- Gold futures were slightly softer overnight and continued to fade intraday. Dollar strength and generally in-line economic data were not the ingredients gold bulls needed for another rally day. December gold settled -$41.20/oz, or -0.88%, at $4,653.30.
- WTI crude futures slipped modestly overnight then traded mostly sideways for the day. No major headlines came out of Iran, Israel or the US on the ongoing conflict or resolution over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's revolutionary guard spokesperson noted the strait will not be opened if U.S. does not accept their conditions, but that rhetoric is hardly new. October WTI crude settled -$0.13/bbl, or -0.16%, at $82.23.
- U.S. Treasury yields rose after data showed annual inflation held steady in July instead of easing as economists had expected. Traders also monitored developments in the Iran conflict and continued to weigh the Treasury's plans to expand debt buybacks. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to speak on Friday at the central bank's Jackson Hole symposium. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 2.1 bps to 4.66%.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | -0.13 | 82.23 |
Brent | -0.74 | 87.84 |
Gold | -41.20 | 4,653.30 |
EUR/USD | -0.0022 | 1.1652 |
JPY/USD | 0.19 | 159.35 |
10-Year Note | 0.021 | 4.66% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- Retail Apparel sector: ANF shares surged as Q2 adj EPS $4.17 tops consensus $1.97 easily thanks to tariff refund while revs of $1.27B topped est. $1.25B and raised its full-year net sales to grow 5%, compared with its earlier forecast of 3% to 5% and EPS higher due to tariff refund. Abercrombie brand sales rose 8% in the quarter while sibling brand Hollister's sales rose 2%. LULU estimates lowered at Keybanc after saying spending data suggests that U.S. trends remained soft through Q2, with absolute declines tracking below its prior expectations.
- Footwear Retail sector: NKE was downgraded to Hold at Truist and cut tgt to $42 from $47 saying the earnings report from DKS signals incremental murkiness around Nike's turnaround progress, as they meaningfully lowered its fiscal 2026 guidance due to deteriorating trends in footwear.
- Off price Retail/Discount retail: TJX was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies and cut tgt to $145 from $180 saying the company's Marmaxx slowdown looks more significant than a typical merchandising miss and expects shares to stay range bound.
- Specialty Retail: BBWI posted a Q2 beat on top/bottom line ($0.31/$1.51B vs. est. $0.24/$1.5B) but forecasts wider-than-expected Q3 net sales decline citing weak store traffic amid early stages of turnaround; now sees Q3 net sales to decline between (-2.5%-5%) vs. est. (-2.9%) and lower EPS, though raised its FY sales to decline between (-2.5%-4%) vs previous forecast drop of (-2.5%-4.5%).
- Department Stores: KSS Q2 sales fell -0.9% y/y to $3.32B missing the $3.35B estimate, though adj EPS topped consensus ($1.28 vs est $0.57), while raised its 2026 EPS view to $1.80-$2.40 per share, above its prior forecast of $1.00-$1.60 helped from $150M tariff refunds received Q2 and sees FY26 annual net sales to be flat to a fall of 1.5% compared with its previous range of flat or a decline 2%.
- Food sector: SJM raises FY27 adjusted EPS view to $10.50-$11.00 from $9.75-$10.25 (est. $10.05) and boosted FY27 revenue growth view to (2%)-(1%) from (4%)-(3%), consensus $8.77B following a Q1 EPS/sales/operating income beat.
Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:
- Lodging sector: TH boosted its FY26 revenue forecast to $435M-$445M from prior $410M-$420M view and said secures new multi-year contract to provide facility and hospitality services for a top five hyperscalers data center development in West Texas.
- Auto sector: LI Q2 revs fell -15% y/y to RMB25.7B citing lower deliveries and product mix, while attributed sequential gross margin improvement to the launch of the all-new Li L9; expects Q3 deliveries between 95K-100K vehicles and sees Q3 revenue between RMB26.6B and RMB28.0B.
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- E&C sector: DY reported Q2 adj EPS $5.29 vs. est. $4.72 and revs rose 45.6% Y/y to $2.01B vs. est. $1.98B; Q2 net Income rose 18.6% to $115.6M; guides FY contract revs $7.48B-$7.66B vs. est. $7.62B citing stronger demand and new awards; Total Q2 backlog jumped 53.2% to $12.24B
- Defense sector: LHX was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies in resumption of coverage saying uncertainty is building at L3Harris with a leadership change and unclear path for the Missile Solutions initial public offering; thinks shares are stalled for now. HEI Q3 EPS above consensus while EBITDA of $415M came in well above $378M est. as strong demand across key end markets drove the sales beat, while absorption benefits, favorable mix, and cost control drove stronger margins.
- Solar/Alternative energy: JKS shares fell after reports Q2 EPS loss (-$0.49) on revs $1.82B, missing the consensus $2.08B and announced that Mr. Xiande Li has resigned as the Chief Executive Officer of the Company, effective August 26, 2026. SEDG was upgraded to Buy at UBS and raised tgt to $42 saying the co is a key beneficiary of the U.S. FCC ban on new inverter model imports, and anticipate the ban will create a supply-constrained U.S. market driving both share gains/pricing power.
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
- Financial Services: TurboTax provider INTU shares fell after forecast slower sales growth in the year ahead as it navigates declines in its desktop business/was downgraded by both Bank America and JPM citing the expansion of the disruption risks confirmed to be extending beyond TurboTax to the Global Business Solutions I.E. QuickBooks business.
- Asset Managers: Vanguard Group has struck a roughly $4B deal to acquire Fintech platform Altruist to further its push into financial advice, people familiar with the matter said, the WSJ reported. Altruist, founded in 2018, is an Upstart competitor to Charles Schwab and Fidelity Investments. VCTR to acquire first Eagle investments, creating a $571B diversified global asset manager. The deal is valued at $7B; $4.40B cash, $2B equity, $575M notes assumed and will assume $575M of first Eagle's existing 7.25% Senior secured notes due 2032
Biotech & Pharma:
- ARGX was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS and raised its tgt to $1,400 from $960 driven by 1) its above cons Vyvgart peak sales, and 2) the underappreciated non Vyvgart pipeline with its high conviction on Empasiprubart P3 readout in MMN due Q4.
- BHVN entered into a licensing agreement with South Korean drug maker SK Biopharmaceuticals for Biohaven's epilepsy drug platform, including Opakalim, for up to $795M.
- SMMT partner Akeso announced positive topline results from the randomized Phase III HARMONi-GI1 study (AK112-309) evaluating ivonescimab plus chemotherapy compared with durvalumab plus chemotherapy; HARMONi-GI1 beat the 1L Btc standard.
- SYRE shares fell after the company’s experimental drug fails to meet threshold for monotherapy development in rheumatoid arthritis.
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- Medical Devices: BSX said that a cybersecurity incident had disrupted global operations, including some information systems used to process and ship customer orders.
- Health Insurance: TRUP was downgraded to Neutral at Piper and cut tgt to $32 from $45 saying the company is facing a dual-threat macro environment due to a contraction in U.S. puppy vet visits and an aging COVID cohort that should ultimately have very expensive care.
- Medical Equipment: NEOG was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper saying the company has posted several consecutive quarters of improving performance, with food safety growth recently accelerating; sees Neogen's new management has improved adjusted EBITDA margins, positive free cash flow, and restored product availability.
Internet, Media & Telecom
- Internet/Social media sector: META agrees to settle claims that platforms harmed children and agrees to pay a maximum of $18B to states as part of deal (about $12.7B to states, with another $5.3B contingent on TikTok and YouTube agreeing to similar terms), while the agreement requires nationwide changes for teen users of Instagram and Facebook. GDDY was downgraded to sell from hold at Wells Fargo saying with Ai overviews now appearing in nearly half of Internet searches, the co needs to lower its prices to stay competitive in this new Ai-first world.
- AI Sector: Reuters reported China's Moonshot Ai is negotiating revenue-sharing agreements with Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet's Google Hat would allow the U.S. Cloud giants to Host its blockbuster Kimi K3 model, three people familiar with the talks said.
Hardware & Software movers:
- Software sector: CRM, OKTA, CRWD earnings results all expected after the close tonight; a report in The Information said PANW has explored acquiring DDOG and OKTA https://tinyurl.com/47rhp5n6 ; ZM shares fell on mixed results as delivered decent 2Q, with revenue, billings, and Non GAAP EPS above consensus, while Non-GAAP operating margin came in below. FY27 revenue and Non-GAAP operating income guidance came in-line with consensus, although the F2Q revenue beat of 0.7% was below the four-quarter average beat of 1.3%. SAP was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS saying the company is delivering agentic AI to customers slowly, which limits the monetization opportunity. ZS was added to the Tactical Underperform List at Evercore as channel checks suggest a challenging Q4 setup and heightened risk to FY27 expectations.
- Hardware & Storage: BOX reported better Q2 results, with revenue modestly ahead of consensus, Non-GAAP operating margin ~90 bps ahead, billings nicely ahead, and Non-GAAP EPS in-line while NRR inflection (106% vs 105% QoQ), Enterprise Advanced momentum helped. NTNX and HPQ earnings results expected tonight after the close.
- Robotics sector: XPEV robotics unit, valued at over $6.3B, will begin mass producing its Iron humanoid robot this year, reported the WSJ. XPeng Co-President Brian Gu expects the robot's hardware gross margin to exceed 50%, surpassing the EV segment's 12.1% second-quarter margin.
- Semiconductor sector: NVDA earnings results tonight with major implications for semis and AI sector. SMTC rallied after reported Q2 revenue/EPS above consensus and upbeat guidance with commentary pointing towards a strong FY28E anchored by the company's Data Center and LoRa subsegments. SMTC sees Q3 EPS $1.02-$1.08 above est. $0.73/revs $405M-$415M vs. est. $359.9M.