Early Look

Friday, October 2, 2026

U.S. futures are looking higher as oil prices drop, and markets await the monthly jobs data at 8:30 am. The Sept Nonfarm Payrolls report will be out in less than 2 hours with estimates for +90K added jobs (prior +162K) and Private Payrolls est. +85K (prior +127K) while the Unemployment Rate for September expected to hold at 4.1%. Meanwhile, oil prices extend losses, with front-month Brent crude futures falling back below $100 a barrel after media reports of talks on potential diesel stock releases. Reuters reported that European Union member States were discussing a French proposal to release additional diesel reserves following pressure from the Trump administration. The report said France had proposed that EU nations release 50M barrels of diesel and International Energy Agency members release 50M barrels of crude oil. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -647 points to 68,309, the Shanghai Index will remain closed until mid-next week for its Golden Week holiday, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -640 points to 23,972. In Europe, the German DAX is up 161 points to 25,100, while the FTSE 100 slips a few points to 10,423. Bitcoin prices are jumping with US futures, up 2% to $86,350 and Ethereum rises 1.8% to $2,750. In stock news, Nike (NKE) shares slide over -10% after earnings and guidance disappoint; SYNA shares jump after amended M&A news with ON, credit bureaus EFX, TRU, FICO fall on news FHFA credit easing mortgage credit-data requirements for Fannie and Freddie.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20.51 points, or 0.04%, to 50,926.56
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 10.53 points, or 0.04%, to 26,871.60
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 9.76 points, or 0.35% to 2,806.63

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for September…est. +85K (prior +127K)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for September…est. 10K (prior +16K)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for September…est. 4.1%
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings for September M/M…est. +0.3%
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for August
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August and above market expectations of 3.6%, according to preliminary estimates. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose to 2.5% from 2.4%, in line with expectations.
• Tokyo core inflation rate jumps in September, bolsters case for more BOJ hikes; Tokyo core CPI rises 2.7% on year in September vs 2.4% forecast; Index excluding fresh food, fuel rises 3.0%.
• Reuters reported that European Union member States were discussing a French proposal to release additional diesel reserves following pressure from the Trump administration. The report said France had proposed that EU nations release 50M barrels of diesel and International Energy Agency members release 50M barrels of crude oil.
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan says the Fed likely will need to raise rates by at least another 50 bps to ensure inflation doesn’t settle above the central bank’s 2% goal. Logan said those additional increases, together with September’s, would merely reverse the three cuts the Fed made last year. She said the Fed needs to set interest rates at a modestly restrictive level, a threshold that remains uncertain and could require even more increases.

• AirBnB (ABNB) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at Keybanc with a $191 price target saying the company's core growth appears to be increasingly durable and product-led while its hotels bookings are emerging as its credible second growth engine.
• Chinese robotaxi operators Pony AI and WeRide face sustained operating losses through 2028 as domestic fleet utilization lags Waymo’s rate of more than 58%, Bloomberg Intelligence said.
• Tesla (TSLA) monthly EV registration and production numbers are expected this morning.

• RTX Corp. (RTX) said Raytheon, an RTX business, has secured a five-year contract, with two additional option years, valued up to $24.4B for Standard Missile-6 interceptors.
• Venture Global (VG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) announce 20-year LNG sales & purchase agreement where ConocoPhillips will buy 1.0M tonnes per annum of LNG from Co for 20 years, starting 2030.
• Vylor Inc. (VYLR) was added to the S&P 500 on October 1 when S&P 500 constituent Corteva Inc (CTVA) spun off Vylor in a transaction completed on that date. Vylor replaces Corteva in the S&P 500. Corteva will replace Olin Corp (OLN) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Olin will replace Qorvo, Inc (QRVO) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Tuesday, October 6.

• Better Home (BETR) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor as the Garg Group announced that it had secured written consents representing over 51% of Better's voting shares, positioning former CEO Vishal Garg to return to an operating role.
• Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) to cut credit bureau requirement (EFX, FICO, TRU). The Federal Housing Finance Agency plans to instruct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to require lenders to obtain credit data from two major credit reporting bureaus rather than three, according to a person familiar with the matter, Reuters reported.

• Inspire Medical systems, Inc. (INSP) announces approval of new hypoglossal nerve stimulation CPT® codes by the ama editorial panel; new category I CPT codes to take effect January 1, 2028.
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) announced a clinical trial collaboration agreement with Daiichi Sankyo and AstraZeneca (AZN) to evaluate ivonescimab, a novel, potential first-in-class investigational PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, in combination with Datroway, a TROP2-directed antibody drug conjugate, across multiple solid tumor settings, intending to include breast and lung cancer

• Broadcom (AVGO) is assembling roughly $60B of financing to help Anthropic and other AI customers fund chip & infrastructure purchases. The package includes: $42B senior-secured debt, $18B junior debt led by Blackstone (BX) – Bloomberg.
• Google (GOOGL) has partnered with Planet Labs (PL) to successfully launch its Project Suncatcher prototype satellite into orbit aboard a SpaceX (SPCX) rocket. The moonshot initiative will test how well Google's Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, handle the extreme radiation and thermal conditions of space.
• Hyperscale Data (GPUS) exploring strategic alternatives for its Askroi subsidiary; potential transactions include sale, strategic partnership or divestiture for Askroi; strategic opportunities involve synergies with Ai, Blockchain, software Partners.
• ON Semiconductor (ON) will acquire Synaptics (SYNA) for cash rather than stock in a downsized deal, according to an amended agreement between the two companies. ON said it will pay $123 a share for Synaptics, giving the deal a value of around $5.7 billion. The company previously agreed in June to issue 1.35 shares for each share of Synaptics, in a deal then valued at about $7 billion.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, October 02, 2026

A strong start on the final trading day of the week as weaker jobs growth in September lowers expectations of rate hikes in the near-term by the Fed while oil prices slide after reports EU countries discussed a French proposal to release diesel stock. Stocks are looking to end the week on a good note as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) hit an all-time intraday high (NVDA also all-time highs) as the tech trade continues to bolster the broader stock market gains (XLK +39% YTD) with the AI trade remaining strong. Prediction markets are now pricing an 85% chance the Fed holds rates in October after payrolls rose just 29,000 vs. 84,000 expected. Unemployment climbed to 4.2%, triggering a sharp dovish repricing of the Fed outlook. Policymakers have signaled they will likely deliver another rate hike by year's end if the Iran war and other shocks that have pushed up inflation persist, as long as the labor market holds up…but given today’s data, that outlook has changed slightly. In stock news, Nike (NKE) shares tumble on earnings and guidance, Tesla (TSLA) rallies on strong monthly delivery numbers, crypto stocks (MSTR, COIN) early bounce as Bitcoin tops $87K, interest rate sensitive stocks (mortgage, housing) get a bounce as the rate hike fears subside/lower mortgage rates, and semis rally outside of weak HDD stocks (more below). The 10-year yield dips back under 5.2% after hitting 24 year highs yesterday around 5.34%.

Weaker monthly jobs data as September Nonfarm payrolls rose +29,000, well below consensus +90,000 and down from August +133,000 (prior +162,000), and July -10,000 (prior +21,000), while the September private sector jobs +46,000m, below consensus +85,000). The U.S. September unemployment rate rises to 4.2%, above prior and consensus of 4.1%. U.S. September labor force participation rate 61.8%. The Average hourly earnings rose +3.0% y/y, lowest since May 2021 and below prior/consensus of +3.1%

Oil prices lower also helping after Reuters reported overnight that European Union countries discussed a French proposal on Friday to release diesel stocks in response to US pressure to help cool surging fuel prices. The proposal calls for European countries to release 50 million barrels of diesel and International Energy Agency members to release 50 million barrels of crude oil, the sources said. The discussions underscore growing pressure on Europe as U.S. President Donald Trump considers a potential ban on US diesel exports to help lower domestic fuel prices ahead of November 3 midterm elections.

• Brokers & Exchanges: CBOE was upgraded to Neutral as Goldman Sachs as believes risks from new retail-oriented wrappers, durability of zero dated index options and extension of the SPX contract within S&P Global have all diminished, and the near-term volume backdrop remains supportive. CME reported its average daily volume reached new records for September, with 31.8M contracts, up 22% year-over-year, and Q3 with 29.4M contracts, up 16% year-over-year. Both September and Q3 volumes exceeded prior records set in 2024.
• Memory stocks mixed as HDD names WDC and STX fall after reports Toshiba will double AI data center HDD capacity within fiscal 2027, investing roughly JPY 60 billion (US$380 million) in its Philippine plant. Its share by storage capacity is just over 10%, with a medium-term target of 30%. The move highlights that data centers are actively choosing cheaper HDDs over SSDs to meet massive AI storage needs.

• BETR +11%; was upgraded to Overweight at Cantor noting the Garg Group announced that it had secured written consents representing over 51% of BETRs voting shares, positioning Mr. Garg to return to an operating role.
• MSTR +3%; amid strength in the crypto sector as Bitcoin jumps over 2.8% above $87,000; also Citigroup raised its ests and tgt on MSTR to $240 from $136 to incorporate their revised 12-month Bitcoin forecast - base case revised 39% higher to ~$113.4k.
• PL +6%; as GOOGL has partnered with Planet Labs to successfully launch its Project Suncatcher prototype satellite into orbit aboard a SPCX rocket. The moonshot initiative will test how well Google's Tensor Processing Units handle the extreme radiation and thermal conditions of space.
• SYNA +13%; ON said it will acquire SYNA for cash rather than stock in a downsized deal, according to an amended agreement between the two companies. ON said it will pay $123 a share for Synaptics, giving the deal a value of around $5.7B
• TSLA +3%; delivered 486,532 vehicles in the July-September period, compared with analysts' average estimate of 456,896 vehicles as sales in Europe recovered from last year's slump, while Q3 total production 464,391 units, vs. consensus estimate 486,761 units.

• FICO -6%; along with weakness in EFX, TRU after Bloomberg reported the US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is planning to ease mortgage credit-data requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie. FHFA is moving toward a framework that would require lenders to use credit data from two bureaus instead of three for mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
• IART -13%; cut its FY26 adjusted EPS view to $2.30-$2.40 from $2.40-$2.50 prior and lowered its FY26 revenue view to $1.634B-$1.654B from $1.654B-$1.695B saying Q3 results were impacted by the July flooding event at our Cincinnati facility.
• NKE -6%; as reported a Q1 EPS beat, but on weaker sales and better SG&A while management gave FY27 sales guidance (-HSD), which was below mkt expectations with EBIT declining more than sales and EPS guided below the $1.50 bar.
• WDC -9%; and STX fall after reports Toshiba will double AI data center HDD capacity within fiscal 2027, investing roughly JPY 60 billion (US$380 million) in its Philippine plant. Its share by storage capacity is just over 10%, with a medium-term target of 30%.

Closing Recap

Friday, October 02, 2026

Major stock indexes rose and the dollar fell on Friday as expectations for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve declined after softer-than-forecast US jobs data. The weaker data boosted U.S. stocks and bonds, as yields fell and gold prices rose as chances of an October hike became slimmer. Expectations for an October rate hike had already been declining going into Friday's jobs report after two top policymakers said this week they wanted more data before deciding what to do next with interest rates. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) hit a record high early along with AI chip leader NVDA, as large cap tech/AI leaders bounced early. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 133,000 rise in August, and compared to economist estimates of payrolls advancing 90,000. Large cap tech saw good size winners with Tesla (TSLA) rising over 5% on upbeat monthly EV deliveries, while semis (SOX) saw gains. By late day, all but the Healthcare (XLV) sector was up on the day. For the week, the S&P 500 fell -0.3%, the Dow fell -1.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.5%.

• Factory orders edged up 0.1% month-over-month in August following a downwardly revised 0.8% increase in July and matching market forecasts. Non-durable goods orders rose by 0.3%, slowing from a 0.7% increase previously. Meanwhile, durable goods orders fell by 0.1%, reversing a 0.9% advance in the prior month. Excluding transportation, factory orders rose 0.3%.

• Rough day for metals again as gold prices ended lower despite early strength. December gold prices fell -$40.00, or -0.95%, to settle at $4,162.30 an ounce (ends the week -3.6% lower), erasing earlier gains as the metals remain in a downtrend as the US dollar and Treasury yields extend gains. December silver prices fell -$0.76, or -1.24%, to settle at $60.42 an ounce (down -6.7% on week).
• US Treasury yields initially lost ground following the weaker jobs data but ended higher on the day as inflation fears and rate hikes remain a concern. The 10-year yield fell below 5.17% this morning after hitting 5.34% on Thursday, its highest levels since 2002 before ending the day at 5.276%, rising almost 10bps on the week and up 5 consecutive weeks now.
• The U.S. dollar was down against the euro and yen after having risen over 2% the last month (and 1 this past week) vs. the euro. Bitcoin prices topped $87,000 this morning in a strong start for crypto assets before fading the remainder of the day as Treasury yields bounced.

• Sporting Goods sector: Goldman Sachs said 3QTD promotional activity was mixed across sporting goods as DKS and ASO showing higher in-store markdown activity y/y but lower online promotions, while Foot Locker's promotional breadth increased sequentially but promotion depth declined. The firm reiterates Buy ratings on DKS and ASO, arguing elevated promotions do not alter their competitive positioning, given market share gains, strong vendor relationships.
• Lodging & Leisure sector: ABNB was upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at Keybanc with a $191 price target saying the company's core growth appears to be increasingly durable and product-led while its hotels bookings are emerging as its credible second growth engine.

• RIVN delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in Q3, beating analysts' average estimate of 18,001 vehicles after rolling out its cheaper R2 SUV in June targeted at a broader section of the mass EV market/also reaffirmed its 2026 delivery forecast of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, saying quarterly production and deliveries were in line with its expectations
• Ford (F) Q3 US sales totaled 509,764 vehicles, down 6.6%; Ford truck & van US sales totaled 891,400 vehicles through Sept. Expected financial impact of supplier issue that affected f-150 trucks production containable within existing FY adj EBIT guidance; Q3 US f-series production up 4.5% to 266,777 trucks.
• Britain's new Car registrations rose 12% in September from a year earlier to their highest level for the month since 2017, helped by strong demand for Electric vehicles, according to preliminary data from a trade Body on Friday. Battery EV registrations rose 36% y/y to 99,199 units in September, accounting for 28.3% of the market.

• Satellite & Telecom sector: ASTS was downgraded to Neutral from Buy and cut tgt to $65 from $85 at B Riley saying they see a balanced risk/reward at current share levels and says AST faces stronger competitive alternatives, a delayed launch, and rising constellation costs, potentially including additional spectrum. PL shares rose as GOOGL has partnered with Planet Labs to successfully launch its Project Suncatcher prototype satellite into orbit aboard a SPCX rocket. The moonshot initiative will test how well Google's Tensor Processing Units handle the extreme radiation and thermal conditions of space.
• Defense sector: NOC was downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital and cut its tgt to $525 from $640 saying while they did not have any F/A-XX revenues in its model, it sees ~6% top-line growth in 2026-2028, in-line with peers, as a best-case scenario. Finally, limited capital allocation options restrict potential catalysts, in RBC's view.
• Metals & Mining: FCX said Q3 Consolidated copper production of approximately 830M pounds was in line with expectations, with slightly better results from international operations offsetting slightly lower production in the U.S.; said U.S. operations experienced lower than planned operating rates in third-quarter 2026 Associated with an increased frequency of localized flooding, power outages and strong winds.

• Crypto sector: A notable bounce for Bitcoin and Ethereum today, helping boost shares of MSTR, COIN, IBIT, BMNR early before fading Citigroup raised its ests and tgt on MSTR to $240 from $136 to incorporate their revised 12-month Bitcoin forecast - base case revised 39% higher to ~$113.4k. Citi's FY'27 Adj. Bitcoin Yield estimate improves ~190bps to ~5.9% following downward revised expectations for FY'26 Adj Btc Yield of -3.3%, resulting from the company's cash reserve build and Btc sales in 3Q'26.
• Brokers & Exchanges: CBOE was upgraded to Neutral as Goldman Sachs as believes risks from new retail-oriented wrappers, durability of zero dated index options and extension of the SPX contract within S&P Global have all diminished, and the near-term volume backdrop remains supportive. CME reported its average daily volume reached new records for September, with 31.8M contracts, up 22% year-over-year, and Q3 with 29.4M contracts, up 16% year-over-year. Both September and Q3 volumes exceeded prior records set in 2024.
• Banks: BNS has received regulatory approval to nearly triple the scale of its share repurchase program, expanding its limit to repurchase up to 40 million shares for cancellation. In Research, Piper upgraded shares of Midwest banks ALRS, HBNC & IBCP to Overweight and downgraded shares of BUSE to Neutral - disciplined and high-quality MSD [at least] organic growth on both B/S sides, defensible-to-expanding NIMs, PPNR upside drivers, and relatively benign credit.

• NVS struck a deal valued at up to $7.8B to license a messenger RNA drug candidate from Abogen Biosciences and gain options over future therapies, turning to China to fill its pipeline. Novartis is paying $575M upfront and could make additional payments of up to $7.2B if options are met.
• SMMT announced a clinical trial collaboration agreement with Daiichi Sankyo and AZN to evaluate ivonescimab, a novel, potential first-in-class investigational PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, in combination with Datroway, a TROP2-directed antibody drug conjugate, across multiple solid tumor settings, intending to include breast and lung cancer.
• Medical Equipment sector: IART cut its FY26 adjusted EPS view to $2.30-$2.40 from $2.40-$2.50 prior and lowered its FY26 revenue view to $1.634B-$1.654B from $1.654B-$1.695B saying Q3 results were impacted by the July flooding event at our Cincinnati facility. ABT was upgraded to Buy at Redburn as has long held that Abbott Medical Devices business can sustain robust growth supported by strong fundamentals and opportunities in cardiovascular and Diabetes.
• Managed care sector: Goldman Sachs noted CMS released the 2027 Medicare Landscape files on September 28, GSCO's analysis of the Landscape files points to another year of broad-based pricing discipline across the MA industry. Carrier paths diverge: UNH's small 1.0% PPO County cut follows a ~1.008M-member 2026 PPO reset, HUM's below-average MOOP, PPO footprint and premium actions look disproportionate to its ~784k PPO member gain, and CNC's conservative MA bids are offset by rising stand-alone PDP risk as the Part D stabilization demo ends.

• Data Center: APLD shares rallied after earlier saying it has brought an additional 75 megawatts of Computing power online at its data center campus in North Dakota.
• Software sector: TWLO is being moved to the S&P 500 index from the S&P MidCap 400 index. Software sector was mixed after a strong showing Thursday.
• Media sector: PSKY shares fell Thursday and remained weak as Bloomberg reported debt investors are facing rapid losses on recently issued bonds used to finance the Warner transaction

• NVDA was reinstated Top Pick at Morgan Stanley with overweight and $30 PT saying road show highlights the diversity of the company's business beyond hyperscalers and Frontier Labs The focus on more expensive processor per GW seems likely to pay off given Land/power/shell constraints MSCO sees the rise of agentic as positive for CPU - including Nvidia CPUs.
• HDD names WDC and STX crushed after reports Toshiba will double AI data center HDD capacity within fiscal 2027, investing roughly JPY 60 billion (US$380 million) in its Philippine plant. Its share by storage capacity is just over 10%, with a medium-term target of 30%. The move highlights that data centers are actively choosing cheaper HDDs over SSDs to meet massive AI storage needs.
• ON said it will acquire SYNA for cash rather than stock in a downsized deal, according to an amended agreement between the two companies. ON said it will pay $123 a share for Synaptics, giving the deal a value of around $5.7B. The company previously agreed in June to issue 1.35 shares for each share of Synaptics, in a deal then valued at about $7B

Street Recommendations

Friday, October 2, 2026

• PRTH B. Riley downgraded Priority Technology to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $8.05, down from $11, after the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by an investor group led by its chairman and CEO, Thomas Priore, for $8.05 per share. The firm believes the newly proposed price satisfies the minority shareholders, who expressed concerns that last year's initial offer was undervalued.
• TFIN B. Riley analyst Hal Goetsch upgraded Triumph Financial to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $82, offering 34% upside. The company is "passing a cross-over point" between its heritage banking business and its "unique" fintech and intelligence offerings, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Riley estimates Triumph's fintech and intelligence revenues will be 65% of revenue exiting 2026. They are "growing significantly faster" than the banking revenue streams, with better margins and return on assets, adds the firm. It sees a favorable risk/reward following the stock's recent selloff.

• FICO Barclays lowered the firm's price target on FICO to $875 from $935 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the business services group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. "Nothing short of a clean beat and raise will matter," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes sentiment on the space has turned incrementally negative.
• TRU Barclays lowered the firm's price target on TransUnion to $70 from $85 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the business services group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. "Nothing short of a clean beat and raise will matter," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes sentiment on the space has turned incrementally negative.

• CEG BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Energy to $350 from $379 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon. This incremental contracting, critically at longer durations/premiums to forward pricing, is key to driving both near- and long-term value, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company represents a differentiated story given its position as the largest producer of carbon-free generation, low leverage, and burgeoning clean product strategy that will enable its customers to accelerate their own decarbonization goals, the firm added.
• NKE BMO Capital analyst Kelly Crago lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $25 from $30 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm notes that it had been bracing for a big FY27 guide down vs. consensus, but the management's outlook proved worse than the already very-low expectations. Nike had further rationalized its Sportswear/Jordan/China sales, with weakness expected to continue into FY28, and while the management has likely set the bar low enough for FY27 revenues, the visibility into a recovery in sales and EPS remains low, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MPC BofA raised the firm's price target on Marathon Petroleum to $426 from $410 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares, citing "small positive adjustments" to long term refinery capture, supported by recent widening in heavy crude discounts.
• VLO BofA analyst Jean Ann Salisbury raised the firm's price target on Valero to $414 from $395 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares, citing "small positive adjustments" to long term refinery capture, supported by recent widening in heavy crude discounts.

• MSTR Citi raised the firm's price target on Strategy to $240 from $136 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites its revised bitcoin forecasts for the target boost. Citi upped its 12-month base case bitcoin forecast by 39% higher to $113,000.
• CRH Citi analyst Anthony Pettinari lowered the firm's price target on CRH to $106 from $122 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the construction materials space as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Citi sees a "challenging" second half of the year for the sector as higher diesel prices hit margins. Most companies will cut fiscal 2026 outlooks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. CRH remains Citi's top pick.
• EXP Citi lowered the firm's price target on Eagle Materials to $190 from $232 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the construction materials space as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Citi sees a "challenging" second half of the year for the sector as higher diesel prices hit margins. Most companies will cut fiscal 2026 outlooks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. CRH remains Citi's top pick.
• MLM Citi lowered the firm's price target on Martin Marietta to $610 from $690 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the construction materials space as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Citi sees a "challenging" second half of the year for the sector as higher diesel prices hit margins. Most companies will cut fiscal 2026 outlooks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. CRH remains Citi's top pick.
• VMC Citi lowered the firm's price target on Vulcan Materials to $300 from $350 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the construction materials space as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Citi sees a "challenging" second half of the year for the sector as higher diesel prices hit margins. Most companies will cut fiscal 2026 outlooks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. CRH remains Citi's top pick.

• NKE Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $30 from $38 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Nike's FY27 guidance came in materially below expectations as weakness in Sportswear, Jordan, and China more than offsets healthy Performance growth, while the new Pace transformation plan and resulting deleverage are expected to pressure FY27-28 margins and earnings, leaving the key debate around FY28 earnings power and whether FY27 marks the trough or another step-down, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ACN Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Accenture to $260 from $230 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered a solid quarter with FY27 revenue guidance, bookings, and gross/operating margins modestly ahead of Street expectations, supporting a potential near-term re-rating given bearish positioning, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• GHM JPMorgan initiated coverage of Graham with an Overweight rating and $126 price target, implying 38% upside. The company designs and manufactures mission-critical fluid, power, heat transfer, vacuum, and advanced mixing technologies serving the defense, space, and energy end markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Graham is entering its "next stage", with sole-sourced Navy content and a legacy vacuum franchise "anchoring resilient growth."
• WMB JPMorgan analyst Jeremy Tonet added Williams the firm's Analyst Focus List as a growth idea while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares with a $91 price target. The company's "scaling" behind-the-meter power infrastructure franchise has solved its funding and Williams has a "premier" natural gas transmission platform that is compounding through capital efficient expansions, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes the stock's recent underperformance brings an attractive entry point.

• NVDA Morgan Stanley is reinstating Nvidia as the analyst's Top Pick in semis after having recently hosted Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress for investor meetings. The biggest takeaways include the diversity of the customer base, growth within traditional hyperscale and frontier labs and that the strategy is to drive up revenue per GW substantially, to ensure that Nvidia solutions continue to drive the most tokens per gigawatt. Recent developments in land/power/shell, financing, component constraints, and agentic "all play to their strengths," says the analyst, who has an Overweight rating and $300 price target on shares.
• ACN Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette raised the firm's price target on Accenture to $195 from $175 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Bookings and revenue upside reinforce Accenture's positioning and execution in a stabilizing backdrop, but its "still too early to underwrite a durable reacceleration," the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

• BUSE Piper Sandler downgraded First Busey to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $30, down from $35. The firm adjusted ratings in the Midwest bank group citing the "fluid" macro backdrop and the group's recent selloff. Piper prefers banks that offer "disciplined and high-quality" mid-single-digit organic growth, have "defensible-to-expanding" net interest margins, and "relatively benign" credit.
• EQBK Piper Sandler downgraded Equity Bancshares to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $52, down from $60. The firm adjusted ratings in the Midwest bank group citing the "fluid" macro backdrop and the group's recent selloff. Piper prefers banks that offer "disciplined and high-quality" mid-single-digit organic growth, have "defensible-to-expanding" net interest margins, and "relatively benign" credit.
• HBNC Piper Sandler analyst Nathan Race upgraded Horizon Bancorp to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $24, up from $23. The firm adjusted ratings in the Midwest bank group citing the "fluid" macro backdrop and the group's recent selloff. Piper prefers banks that offer "disciplined and high-quality" mid-single-digit organic growth, have "defensible-to-expanding" net interest margins, and "relatively benign" credit.
• IBCP Piper Sandler upgraded Independent Bank to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $42. The firm adjusted ratings in the Midwest bank group citing the "fluid" macro backdrop and the group's recent selloff. Piper prefers banks that offer "disciplined and high-quality" mid-single-digit organic growth, have "defensible-to-expanding" net interest margins, and "relatively benign" credit.
• CI Piper Sandler analyst Jessica Tassan raised the firm's price target on Cigna to $370 from $346 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company held long-term target adjusted EPS CAGR to 10.0%-14.0% and established a 2030 adjusted EPS floor of $45.00 at Investor Day. Piper believes the market would have rallied around a beatable 8.0%-10.0% long-term adjusted EPS CAGR.
• NESR Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on National Energy Services to $39 from $40 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes it was a challenging week for the company with shares falling 20% as the slowdown in the Middle East, specifically Saudi Arabia, has caused management to revise second half of 2026 estimates lower. While the stock move is striking, Piper recalls the bar was set high for the company after it delivered an impressive Q2 print, including announcing its $3B3 transformational growth strategy, sending shares greater than 20%. This week's sharp mean reversion is understandable as the beat-and-raise/rate-of-change momentum takes a pause, adds Piper.
• NKE Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $28 from $38 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company missed Q1 revenues, with a slight beat to gross margin and EPS. Performance up high-single digit offset weakness in Sportswear, Jordan and China. The $2.5B restructuring program should help, although Nike is reinvesting some of it, Piper adds, pointing out that it made sense to provide FY27 EPS guide ahead of the Investor Day in November, although the $1.15-$1.35 range came in well below its sense of the buy-side at $1.50.

• ALGM RBC Capital initiated coverage of Allegro MicroSystems with an Outperform rating and $50 price target. Allegro is the leader in magnetic position and current sensing integrated circuits and has a growing presence in power integrated circuits, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the company's data center business fundamentals remain intact despite the stock's 38% correction from peak levels. It sees an attractive risk/reward at current share levels.
• ONTO RBC Capital initiated coverage of Onto Innovation with an Outperform rating and $400 price target. The firm views Onto as a leading supplier of semiconductor inspection and metrology equipment. The company is well positioned to benefit from a strong wafter fab equipment spending cycle, rising process control intensity, and share gains, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• S TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on SentinelOne to $29 from $26 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after meeting with management. The "Mythos moment" appears to have created a new multi-year industry tailwind for next-generation endpoint security vendors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says SentinelOne's average sales cycles have compressed by 15% in recent weeks, indicating the fiscal 2027 net new annual recurring revenue consensus estimate of up 6% year-over-year could be too conservative.

• EXPD UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz raised the firm's price target on Expeditors to $220 from $210 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's outlook is improving on strong airfreight rates and activity plus strengthening ocean volumes and rates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HP UBS analyst Josh Silverstein initiated coverage of Helmerich & Payne with a Buy rating and $49 price target. The firm views Helmerich as a leading global drilling solutions provider, with operations in 16 countries. UBS cites the company's improving North America margins, a recovery in Saudi next year, and growth in the Vaca Muerta for the Buy rating. The Street is pricing in 141 North America rigs versus the UBS forecast of 150, and discounting Helmerich's growth and margin uplift ahead from Argentina, contends the firm.

• NKE Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $30 from $40 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says sentiment remains as subdued as ever, but Nike's Q1 was still worse than expected. Headwinds across Jordan, Sportswear and China are simply too big and are causing the P&L to collapse and visibility remains low, Wells argues.
• ACN Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Accenture to $210 from $194 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm highlights the outsized move in shares driven by materially better-than-expected Q4 revenue/bookings, plus positioning. For now, at least, Wells thinks the print helps reduce the AI fear factor and boost sentiment.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 Employment Trends for September
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for September

• Earnings After the Close: None

• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advanced Goods Trade Balance for August
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AXIL NEOG PENG SAR STZ WS

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for August

• Earnings After the Close: APLD LEVI RELL RGP

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-yr notes

• Earnings After the Close: ODC

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE October crop report
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

.