Early Look

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Another day, another sharp pullback in the tech sector overnight, especially in the AI/semiconductor sector most sensitive to higher borrowing costs. Ironically, the rout overnight comes as Treasury yields plunge, with the 10-year yield falling 11 bps to 5.08%, while the 30-yr bps -10 bps to 5.43% and the shorter term 2-yr yield, which jumped yesterday post CPI data, is down 7 bps to 4.73%. Even oil prices are pulling back this morning, but providing little easing of concerns in the tech sector thus far

Hotter-than-expected inflation data sent the Nasdaq to a sharply lower close on Wednesday (ahead of PPI inflation data today), with worries about more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve pummeling shares of Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sensitive to higher borrowing costs. Increased bets that the Fed will need more rate hikes to tame inflation dealt a sharp blow to some of the market's biggest gainers of 2026 with AI infrastructure stocks getting hit hard (NBIS, CRWV, ORCL, DELL, VRT, AMD, IREN, etc.) Wednesday's rout is the latest sign of a market struggling to come to grips with the implications of high inflation at a time when AI-fueled corporate borrowing has helped push up global interest rates. All three major US stock indexes closed lower on the day, with a 4.3% slide in chips (SOX) dragging the Nasdaq down 1.9%, the tech-loaded index's biggest one-day drop since July 23^rd.

Concern over rising borrowing costs weighed on Wednesday's for the tech sector and is carrying over to today, overshadowing strong results/guidance from Taiwan Semi (TSM). Selling has been particularly intense in CoreWeave, which has issued $22 billion of bonds and $26 billion of loans. A CoreWeave bond that was issued in June yielding 9.625% recently yielded 15%. Credit default swap spreads for Oracle (ORCL) widened 26 basis points to a record 288 bps, while SoftBank rose 24 bps to 424 bps, Reuters reported. CoreWeave (CRWV) spreads climbed above 1,000 bps, highlighting investor concerns about whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will generate sufficient returns to support rising debt obligations.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled 3,318 points or 4.9% to settle at 64,425, the Shanghai Index fell -59 points to 3,707, the Hang Seng Index dropped -251 points to 24,062 and the Korean Kospi sunk 76 points or 8.13% to finish at 860 as the semiconductor/tech sector rout continued. Sk Hynix shares plunge 10% amid Asia tech rout as Fed rate hike fears, Ai funding worries mount. In Europe, the German DAX is down -115 points to 25,183, while the FTSE 100 rises 50 points to 10,778. The US dollar pulls back further off 18-month high reached earlier this week, giving gold/silver a little selling reprieve.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -48.62 points, or 0.09%, to 51,621.48
• The Nasdaq Composite tanked -511.51 points, or 1.88%, to 26,692.87
• The Russell 2000 Index tumbled -53.84 points, or 1.93% to 2,729.53

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.17M (prior 1.716M)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Empire Manufacturing for October…est. 10.25 (prior 7.6)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for October…est. 28.4 (prior 37.8)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for September…est. +0.5% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for September…est. +5.3% (prior +5.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September…est. +4.4% (prior +4.6%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M for September…est. +0.3% (prior +1.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales – Less Autos for September…est. +0.5% (prior +1.4%)
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business Inventories M/M for August…est. 0.4%
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET EIA Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AA IBKR INDB JBHT SFNC WAFD WSE

• Japan’s industrial output fell 2.4% M/M in August 2026, dropping faster than the preliminary reading of -1.7% and building on July's 0.2% decline. This marks the second consecutive month of monthly output contraction and the sharpest downturn since January.

• CarMax (KMX) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Bank America and raise tgt to $65 from $50 saying FTC enforcement of price transparency, combined with the company's own actions, has made CarMax the most price-competitive it has been in years.
• Crocs (CROX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raised tgt to $139 from $118 citing greater visibility into the company's multi-year growth story for the upgrade.
• Penske Automotive (PAG) announces agreement to be taken private by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co. as shareholders to receive $212 per share in cash; enterprise value $16.30B; to hold 64% and Mitsui to hold 36% of company post-deal.
• Walmart (WMT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $136 price target saying they see a more favorable setup for the shares into 2027 as the current inflationary environment should reinforce Walmart's value proposition and drive accelerates market share gains.

• Rocket Lab (RKLB) said the inaugural launch of its new, larger Neutron rocket was delayed until next year. Rocket Lab had previously ​targeted Neutron's inaugural flight for the fourth quarter of 2026. Neutron is a reusable medium-lift rocket central to ​Rocket Lab's effort to compete for larger commercial satellite, civil-space and US national-security ⁠missions.
• TotalEnergies (TTE) said it expects Q3 profits to be driven by a near quadrupling in refining margins from a year ago and a sharp rise in liquefied natural gas income; sees reporting refining margin of $33.2 per barrel for the July-September quarter, up from $13.5 a barrel in the previous three months and almost four times the $8.4 per barrel it had posted a year ago, the company said in a trading update.

• PayPal (PYPL) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America with a $53 price target as the firm sees a weak Q3 setup and argues that every transformation lever is a 2027+ story.
• Piper Sandler (PIPR) and advisory firm Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) have abandoned talks for an all-stock merger, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The companies were unable to agree on financial and personnel matters, FT reported. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that Piper Sandler was in talks to buy Perella Weinberg, which had a market value of about $1.4 billion at the time.
• PNC bank (PNC) Q3 EPS $5.09 vs. est. $4.89; Q3 revs rose 11% y/y to $6.56B vs. est. $6.59B; Q3 net income rose 15% y/y to $2.1B; Q3 net interest income increased 15% y/y to $4.21B; Q3 non-interest expense fell -8% q/q to $3.75B; Q3 net loan charge-offs jumped 44% y/y to $257M.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported a 41.1% increase in Q3 revenue, beating estimates and forecasting Q4 sales above market expectations as demand for advanced chips used in AI remains strong; said Q3 revenue of $46.72B was above analysts' expectations of $45.7B while gross margins were 66.4%, and operating margin reached 58.7%; guides Q4 revenue of $52.3B-$54.3B, above the analyst consensus of $50.48B.
• Ericsson (ERIC) reported a net profit of 10.74 billion Swedish kronor (€961 million) in the first nine months of 2026, representing a 45.9% decrease y/y; results reflect an extraordinary negative impact of 5.262 billion kronor (€471 million) due to restructuring costs; said net sales between January and September totaled 161.5 billion Swedish kronor (€14.455 billion), down -3.5% y/y.
• Comtech Telecom (CMTL) Q4 sales $66.2M vs. est. $111.7M; Q4 gross margins 40.6%, operating loss -$3.9M; and Q4 adj Ebitda $9.2M.
• Spotify (SPOT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at StoneX.
• The smartphone market suffered its worst decline on record in the September quarter, after rising memory costs pushed shipments down 22% with worse to come, according to market researcher IDC. The higher cost of storage over the past year, led by demand from AI industry orders, has hurt profitability across the mobile sector and forced companies to raise prices, cut back specifications and discard budget-focused models, IDC said

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, October 15, 2026

U.S. stocks slumped on the open, as the futures picture indicated, with the Nasdaq extending Wednesday's tech-led slide as credit stress across AI infrastructure financing continues to overshadow strong earnings, including Taiwan Semiconductor's (TSM) blowout Q3 beat. The Dow and Smallcap Russell 2000 however edge higher amid a surprise move lower in Treasury yields. A busy 8:30 AM data slate came in hotter than expected on inflation but mixed elsewhere: September PPI headline jumped +1.3% M/M (vs. +0.5% consensus) and +6.3% Y/Y (vs. +5.3% consensus), Retail Sales rose +0.8% M/M (vs. +0.3% consensus) and +0.9% ex-autos (vs. +0.5% consensus), weekly jobless claims ticked up to 199,000 (vs. 200,000 consensus), Empire Manufacturing surged to 25.5 in October (vs. 10.25 consensus) while the Philly Fed Business Index cooled to 20.9 (vs. 28.4 consensus). Despite the hot inflation prints, Treasury yields reversed sharply lower on a flight to quality tied to the ongoing AI credit angst, with the 10-year falling 13 basis points to 5.06% and the 30-year down 11.9 basis points to 5.406%, both well off yesterday's highs; gold extends its surge, up $70.20 to $4,178.10 an ounce, the dollar index slides 0.48% to 102.06, and bitcoin falls but paring losses.

Tech pullback continues as the cost of insuring against the risk of potential US tech defaults has hit record levels in the latest sign of credit stress building in the so-called AI trade, especially for data centers dependent on future revenue (NBIS, CRWV, IREN, HUT, WULF, CORZ, CFR, etc.). Although shares in companies driving the AI boom are still among the biggest gainers on global equity markets this year, many have fallen sharply in the past few weeks/months, as investors reassess the cost of capital against a backdrop of rising interest rates and inflation. There are also doubts among some investors and analysts about when, and in some cases, if, the billions of dollars pouring into data centers, computer power and other infrastructure will pay off. For some of their more heavily indebted competitors, suppliers and customers the cost of CDS has risen sharply over the last few days/weeks.  Nuclear power/SMR names also been sliding too (CEG, NRG, VST, TLN, OKLO, SMR, NNE as well as power names PWR, GEV, MTZ).

• Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index for October fell to 20.9 (vs. consensus 28.4) from 37.8 in September; new orders dropped to 4.3 from 29.2, prices paid declined to 43.2 from 48.6, the employment index slipped to 9.1 from 11.8, and the six-month business conditions index tumbled to 33.0 from 52.9.
• Inflation data ran hotter than expected as the Sept producer price index (PPI) headline rose +1.3% M/M (vs. +0.5% consensus) and +0.4% prior, and +6.3% Y/Y vs. +5.3% consensus and +5.4% prior; core PPI (ex-food & energy) rose +0.7% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior, and +5.0% Y/Y vs. +4.4% consensus and +4.6% prior.
• Retail Sales for September rose +0.8% M/M (vs. +0.3% consensus) from +1.2% prior, while Retail Sales ex-autos rose +0.9% M/M (vs. +0.5% consensus) from +1.4% prior (revised from +1.3%); the control group (ex-autos, gasoline, building materials & food services) rose just +0.1% M/M (vs. +0.3% consensus) from +1.2% prior.
• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 199,000 from 198,000 prior (and vs. consensus 200,000) as the 4-week moving average climbed to 198,500 from 198,250 prior week (previous 198,000) and continued claims fell to 1.710M from 1.714M prior (v. est. 1.710M).

• Auto sector: PAG announces agreement to be taken private by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co. as shareholders to receive $212 per share in cash; enterprise value $16.30B; to hold 64% and Mitsui to hold 36% of company post-deal. KMX was upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Bank America in auto retail and raise tgt to $65 from $50 saying FTC enforcement of price transparency, combined with the company's own actions, has made CarMax the most price-competitive it has been in years. In auto suppliers, BWA upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America.
• Gold and silver mining stocks (AEM, B, CDE, AG, HL, NEM) are rebounding after coming under pressure on Wednesday as spot gold fell over 1% to $4,095 per ounce following a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation report. The data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this month, strengthening concerns that tighter monetary policy would weigh on bullion prices.
• Homebuilders (KBH, LEN, TOL, DHI) rebound given the surprising move lower in Treasury yields despite hotter CPI, PPI data; the 10-yr yield -13bps to 5.06% after highs 5.32% just yesterday morning. Also seeing rebound in some mortgage related stocks too with names like RKT higher.

• IP +5%; after the Financial Times reported Private equity firms Lone Star and Atlas Holdings are both working on possible deals for International Paper's European packaging business, citing people familiar with the matter.
• KMB +4%; guided Q3 sales and profit above expectations citing steady demand and cost-saving measures as now sees Q3 sales $4.13B vs. consensus of $4.1B and adj EPS $1.70 topping the $1.59 consensus and also reaffirmed its FY26 outlook.
• NEM +1%; after tumbling on Wednesday, precious metal prices and gold/silver miner stocks (AEM, AG, CDE, HL) rebounded today as the dollar fell along with Treasury yields despite a surging PPI inflation reading today (and higher CPI yesterday).
• PAG +8%; announces agreement to be taken private by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co. as shareholders to receive $212 per share in cash; enterprise value $16.30B; to hold 64% and Mitsui to hold 36% of company post-deal.
• WMT +3%; upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $136 price target saying they see a more favorable setup for the shares into 2027 as the current inflationary environment should reinforce Walmart's value proposition and drive accelerates market share gains.

• FMC -36%; slashes Q3 revenue view to $65M-$125M from $840M-$900M, well below consensus $866.67M and cuts Q3 adjusted EBITDA view to ($565M)-($510M) from $120M-$130M saying the revised expectations now include commercial actions.
• MAN -13%; shares tumbled after guiding Q4 EPS of $1.03-$1.13, the midpoint of which is below the $1.10 estimate, after reporting Q3 revs of $4.84B, below the consensus $4.86B with in-line Q3 adj EPS of $1.01; also named insider Becky Frankiewicz CEO, effective Jan. 1, 2027.
• RKLB -11%; shares fell after saying the inaugural launch of its new, larger Neutron rocket was delayed until next year. Rocket Lab had previously targeted Neutron's inaugural flight for the fourth quarter of 2026.
• TSM -3%; delivered Q3 results with Q4 rev guidance above expectations, although margin outlook and commentary highlighted ongoing pressure from 2nm and overseas fab ramps despite continued strength in AI demand.
• VNDA -2%; said its experimental drug VQW-765 for social anxiety disorder failed the main goal of a late-stage study, prompting the company to put the program on hold pending further analysis of the data. The study did not show that the drug reduced anxiety compared to placebo.

Closing Recap

Thursday, October 15, 2026

 U.S. stock markets remain incredibly resilient, shaking off sharp overnight declines in technology (Nasdaq futures fell over -1%) amid back-to-back “hotter” than expected inflation reports yesterday (CPI) and today (PPI), which raised chances of Fed interest rate hikes to slow inflation. The Nasdaq neared a one-month low earlier in the session as tech stocks lost ground after TSM reported better earnings and guidance but struck a cautious note on 2027 while reports of a 45% sequential jump in Anthropic's quarterly revenue offered little reprieve. The broader Philadelphia semiconductor index (SOX) fell for a seventh straight decline, nit was well off the lows. Despite the surge in PPI readings today, the US dollar and Treasury yields surprisingly fell notable as the 10-year yield hit around 5.05% down from 5.329% yesterday morning post CPI data. On the flip side, traditionally defensive sectors continued to rise, with healthcare (XLV) hitting all time highs and consumer staples (XLP) on retail strength as well as solid gains in financials (XLF) and materials (XLB) as metals rebounded. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hit a two-week high on Thursday before ending the day much lower from top levels.

Major AI stocks slumped again on Thursday as rising CPI/PPI data highlighted investor concern about the risks posed by rising borrowing costs in this capital-intensive sector, but managed a solid bounce to pare losses. Among the leading decliners Wednesday/Thursday were AI infrastructure/data center/neoclouds such as NBIS, CRWV, ORCL, DELL, IREN, HUT and power related plays for the industry VRT, SMCI, ETN, CAT, GNRC, PWR and others. The declines reflect the impact of tightening financial conditions, as well as the outsize gains scored by some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom. Also, the social and political pushback against data Centers intensified the past few months such as the changes in zoning laws without community input, noise and Water use concerns, and electricity affordability concerns. Political leaders responded with outright moratoria (TX, NY), increased restrictions around NDAs, Water use, and electricity usage and who pays (PA, VA, etc.).

Dan Ives today called the AI stock selloff a clear buying opportunity and the sharp declines in Coreweave, Iren, Nebius represent buying opportunities rather than warning signs. Despite rising borrowing costs, Ives argues Ai Computing demand remains strong, with chip demand reportedly exceeding available supply by 13 to 1.He expects 800–1,000 data Centers to be built in the coming years. His key message: Higher interest rates make Ai infrastructure more expensive to finance, but do not necessarily weaken demand."

• Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index for October fell to 20.9 (vs. consensus 28.4) from 37.8 in September; new orders dropped to 4.3 from 29.2, prices paid declined to 43.2 from 48.6, the employment index slipped to 9.1 from 11.8, and the six-month business conditions index tumbled to 33.0 from 52.9.
• Inflation data ran hotter than expected as the Sept producer price index (PPI) headline rose +1.3% M/M (vs. +0.5% consensus) and +0.4% prior, and +6.3% Y/Y vs. +5.3% consensus and +5.4% prior; core PPI (ex-food & energy) rose +0.7% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior, and +5.0% Y/Y vs. +4.4% consensus and +4.6% prior.
• Retail Sales for September rose +0.8% M/M (vs. +0.3% consensus) from +1.2% prior, while Retail Sales ex-autos rose +0.9% M/M (vs. +0.5% consensus) from +1.4% prior (revised from +1.3%); the control group (ex-autos, gasoline, building materials & food services) rose just +0.1% M/M (vs. +0.3% consensus) from +1.2% prior.
• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 199,000 from 198,000 prior (and vs. consensus 200,000) as the 4-week moving average climbed to 198,500 from 198,250 prior week (previous 198,000) and continued claims fell to 1.710M from 1.714M prior (v. est. 1.710M).

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $97.97, rising $2.88, or 3.03% after falling more than 2% overnight as potential US steps to ease restrictions on Russia's "shadow fleet" tankers soothed price concerns, but attacks on ships in the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure limited the decline. Brent crude fell -$0.14 to settle at $105.92 per barrel.

• The U.S. dollar retreated further from an 18-month peak reached a few days ago as investors looked past strong US inflation (PPI today and CPI yesterday) and spending data to focus on a shakeout in the securities of AI data center firms. The dollar index (DXY) fell -0.5% to 102.00, having hit an 18-month high Wednesday after US inflation figures came in stronger than expected. That helped the euro bounce 0.48% from an 18-month trough to $1.1210, putting it on track for its biggest daily gain in nearly two months.

• Hardline/Broadline Retailing sector: WMT was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $136 price target saying they see a more favorable setup for the shares into 2027 as the current inflationary environment should reinforce Walmart's value proposition and drive accelerates market share gains; shares of COST, DG, DLTR also advanced on strength.
• Apparel & Footwear sector: CROX was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raised tgt to $139 from $118 citing greater visibility into the company's multi-year growth story for the upgrade. NKE was a top performer in the S&P and Dow, rising over 5% while other underperforming retail names like DECK, M, GAP and LULU also posted solid gains.
• Consumer Staples sector: KMB guided Q3 sales and profit above expectations citing steady demand and cost-saving measures as now sees Q3 sales $4.13B vs. consensus of $4.1B and adj EPS $1.70 topping the $1.59 consensus and also reaffirmed its FY26 outlook. In beverages, the WSJ reported YUM’s KFC is nearing a deal to sign KO as its beverage provider at thousands of U.S. restaurants, a major blow to longtime supplier PEP.
• Staffin sector: MAN shares tumbled after guiding Q4 EPS of $1.03-$1.13, the midpoint of which is below the $1.10 estimate, after reporting Q3 revs of $4.84B, below the consensus $4.86B with in-line Q3 adj EPS of $1.01; also named insider Becky Frankiewicz CEO, effective Jan. 1, 2027.
• Homebuilders (KBH, LEN, TOL, DHI) rebound given the surprising move lower in Treasury yields despite hotter CPI, PPI data; the 10-yr yield -13bps to 5.06% after highs 5.32% just yesterday morning. Also seeing rebound in some mortgage related stocks too with names like RKT higher.

• Lodging sector: Goldman Sachs said they remain positive on Lodging into 3Q earnings as US RevPAR has stayed stronger than expected and broadened into Economy and Midscale but expects greater stock-level bifurcation around earnings flow-through and net unit growth. Highlights HLT as the preferred pick given expected positive revisions, improving NUG and fewer owner-relations concerns, while seeing execution risk around H and WH’s unit-growth targets; MAR should benefit from stronger RevPAR but owner economics remain an overhang. In timeshare, VAC offers the strongest setup with a beat-and-raise expected and December Investor Day as a catalyst, while HGV faces a tougher quarter and likely guidance cut.

• Refining sector: another day another record high for many of the names given better crack spread margins and higher diesel prices (before some slipping VLO, MPC, PBF, DINO, PSX). Goldman Sachs today downgraded PARR to Neutral from Buy as key catalysts have largely played out and elevated Freight rates create downside risk to 2027 consensus estimates given Hawaii's reliance on waterborne crude. They instead highlight DK as the Preferred SMID-cap refiner, maintaining a Buy rating and raising the PT to $97 from $83, with stronger refining margins, operational initiatives and small refinery exemptions.

• PNC Q3 EPS $5.09 vs. est. $4.89 while Q3 revs rose 11% y/y to $6.56B but was below the consensus est. $6.59B as funding costs impact NII; Q3 net income rose 15% y/y to $2.1B; Q3 net interest income increased 15% y/y to $4.21B; Q3 non-interest expense fell -8% q/q to $3.75B; Q3 net loan charge-offs jumped 44% y/y to $257M.
• USB Q3 revs rose 8.7% y/y to $7.97B but vs. est. $8B; Q3 Net interest income rose due to higher loan balances and purchase of small business credit card portfolio; raises FY26 revenue view to up 8%-9% from prior view of 7%-9% and vs. FY25 revenue $28.7B (with FY26 consensus $31.07B) and said sees FY26 positive operating leverage of about 300 bps vs. prior view of about 200 bps
• Brokers & Investment sector: SCHW shares fell as Q3 revenue rose 17% y/y, slightly missing analyst expectations on better adj EPS of $1.69 as said record net new assets of $190.4B and 1.2M new brokerage accounts drove results; said higher trading volumes contributed to revenue, with daily average trading volume up 44% y/y.
• PIPR and advisory firm PWP have abandoned talks for an all-stock merger, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The companies were unable to agree on financial and personnel matters, FT reported. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that Piper Sandler was in talks to buy Perella Weinberg.

• AQST announced that the U.S. FDA accepted its resubmitted marketing application for Anaphylm sublingual film, an epinephrine formulation designed for the emergency treatment of severe allergic reactions.
• AZN partners with Insitro in an AI-driven drug discovery collaboration for MASH and cardiomyopathies, with Insitro receiving $40 million upfront and eligible for up to $1.46 billion in milestones plus royalties.
• TAK presents Phase 2/3 IgGNITE results for subcutaneous TAK-881 in primary immunodeficiency disease at ESID 2026.
• VNDA said its experimental drug VQW-765 for social anxiety disorder failed the main goal of a late-stage study, prompting the company to put the program on hold pending further analysis of the data. The study did not show that the drug reduced anxiety compared to placebo during a public-speaking stress test, but missed a key secondary goal in the broader study population.

• Insulin sector: DXCM shares bounced early after CONNECT study was published in the New England Journal of Medicine; Randomized controlled trial demonstrates Dexcom G7 significantly reduces A1C and improves glucose control compared with routine care. Benefits observed across a broad range of participants, including those taking GLP-1 medications. Findings support the role of CGM earlier in Type 2 diabetes care for all people, including those over the age of 65.

• In Shipping and tanker sector (SHIP, DSX, GOGL, SB, SBLK, CTRM): Baltic index fell -122 points, or 4.57%, to 2,545 points, its lowest level since June 30th and its ninth consecutive session of losses. The Capesize index fell -308 points, or 8.48%, to 3,322 points, its lowest level since April. Average daily earnings for Capesize vessels fell  $2,792 to $26,625. The panamax index lost -53 points, or 2.20%, to reach 2,356 points.
• E&Cs sector remains pressured due to the weakness in the AI/power play with names like PWR, MTZ, PRIM, VRT, ETN, CAT, GNRC, GEV and others that have broadly outperformed the SPX the last year. The social and political pushback against data Centers has intensified – the Social concerns around the secretive nature of the data center buildouts, the changes in zoning laws without community input, noise and Water use concerns, and electricity affordability concerns. Political leaders responded with outright moratoria (TX, NY), increased restrictions around NDAs, Water use, and electricity usage and who pays (PA, VA, etc.).

• Metals & Mining: after tumbling on Wednesday, precious metal prices and gold/silver miner stocks (AEM, NEM, AG, CDE, HL) rebounded today as the dollar fell along with Treasury yields despite a surging PPI inflation reading today (and higher CPI yesterday); CMC Q4 adj EPS and revs top consensus ($2.09/$2.66B vs. est. $1.96/$2.57B as the steel and construction solutions provider beat was driven by North America Steel Group growth and TAG initiatives and expects FY27 to be another strong year, though said Q1 adj EBITDA expected to be nearly flat sequentially on seasonal trends.
• Chemical sector: FMC slashes Q3 revenue view to $65M-$125M from $840M-$900M, well below consensus $866.67M and cuts Q3 adjusted EBITDA view to ($565M)-($510M) from $120M-$130M saying the revised expectations now include commercial actions; critical commercial issue facing FMC is slower-than-expected demand from channel customers in key markets; SMG was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS after an encouraging Analyst Day in early August and says though not immune to broader inflationary pressures and a K-shaped consumer, stills see a path to on algorithm EPS growth looking out to FY27.

• AI Infrastructure: More than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment by 2030, as projected enterprise and consumer AI revenue of $3.6 trillion falls far short of the $8.5 trillion needed to cover capital costs and deliver a 12% return on invested capital, according to Gartner. The gap raises serious questions about the sustainability of the AI infrastructure boom, particularly as computing assets depreciate rapidly. Gartner warns that more than 80% of neocloud providers — including firms like CRWV and NBIS — could cease operating independently by 2030, while diversified hyperscalers such as MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, face less exposure.
• Anthropic Q3 revenue jumps 46% to $16.8B ahead of potential November IPO as the Claude developer told investors it was profitable on an adj basis and cash flow positive during the quarter, despite the significant costs associated with Ai infrastructure. The update came during investor presentations in San Francisco as Anthropic prepares for a potential November IPO. The company outlined plans to spend more than $500B on Computing/infrastructure over e next decade.
• AI sector: CNBC reported mid-afternoon that AAPL and META team up to make muse Ai model run on mac computers. Internet security sector, the group was weaker (CRWD, PANW, OKTA, ZS) on a Semafor report that Perplexity to open source its Ai Security software.
• Hardware & Comm Equipment: ERIC reported a net profit of 10.74 billion Swedish kronor (€961 million) in the first nine months of 2026, representing a 45.9% decrease y/y; results reflect an extraordinary negative impact of 5.262 billion kronor (€471 million) due to restructuring costs; said net sales between Jan-Sept totaled 161.5 billion Swedish kronor (€14.455B), down -3.5% y/y.

• TSM delivered Q3 results with Q4 rev guidance above expectations, although margin outlook and commentary highlighted ongoing pressure from 2nm and overseas fab ramps despite continued strength in AI demand; said Q3 revenue of $46.72B was above analysts' expectations of $45.7B while gross margins were 66.4%, and operating margin reached 58.7%; guides Q4 revenue of $52.3B-$54.3B, above the analyst consensus of $50.48B.
• CRUS was downgraded from Overweight to Sector Weight at KeyBanc citing: 1) AAPL cuts indicate iPhone units are likely to decline in 2027 (~80% of the Company's revenues are tied to AAPL, with AAPL cutting wafer starts at TSMC on the order of 15M-20M iPhones); 2) emerging PC diversification opportunity likely pushed out given elevated memory pricing Cycle and 3) bidding for SYNA was a stretch and somewhat concerning, though ultimately rejected in favor of ON bid.
• NVDA released a new open model built for agents that work across everything at once; Nemotron 3.5 Super VL. 120B parameters, only 12B active at a time; It reasons, uses tools, and understands text, images, documents and video in one model. No passing context between separate models
• Semi equipment stocks hit harder than semis in general, with LRCX falling as much as -7% this morning, down a ninth straight day to lowest levels in about a month. DJ notes longest losing streak on record back to 1984); shares down -38% from ATH highs of $433.33 in late June

Street Recommendations

Thursday, October 15, 2026

• TEVA Barclays analyst Glen Santangelo raised the firm's price target on Teva to $47 from $42 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview. While expectations are higher heading into the print, the results and Teva's pending inflection in the pipeline "will perpetuate momentum in shares," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• FAST Bernstein raised the firm's price target on Fastenal to $47 from $42 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm notes sales were better than expected, but the exit rate of 14.4% for September was worse than investors expected with only a modest improvement in price-cost spread. Gross margins beat, but most of it was related to one-time timing and tariff benefits. The company has had its execution hiccups, mainly lagged pricing, and admittedly successful execution elsewhere, but this matters less in the context of a much better macro backdrop from where we entered the year, Bernstein argues.

• PYPL BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill downgraded PayPal to Underperform from Neutral with a $53 price target. The firm sees a "weak" Q3 setup and argues that "every transformation lever is a 2027+ story."
• KMX BofA upgraded CarMax to Buy from Underperform with a price target of $65, up from $50. FTC enforcement of price transparency, combined with the company's own actions, has made CarMax "the most price-competitive it has been in years," says the analyst, who sees the strategic update coming on November 3 as a near-term catalyst.
• BWA BofA upgraded BorgWarner to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $85, up from $78. The firm views BorgWarner as positioned to return to positive growth over market for its core auto business in 2027 and thinks this should further accelerate in 2028. BorgWarner also has "the most tangible near-term opportunity in non-auto," led by its power generation solution, the analyst tells investors.
• FISV BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of Fiserv with an Underperform rating and $48 price target, citing the view that the company's recovery is likely to take longer than current expectations imply. The firm also maintains that the hybrid business structure of processing and acquiring "may prove less synergistic."
• FIS BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of FIS with a Buy rating and $42 price target. FIS swapped Worldpay for TSYS, adding stable, recurring issuer revenue that serves many of its existing bank clients, the analyst tells investors.
• GPN BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of Global Payments with a Buy rating and $114 price target. Global took on Worldpay at a much lower valuation and targets about $600M of synergies, the analyst tells investors.
• TOST BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of Toast with a Buy rating and $40 price target. Toast built its lead in restaurants, the most complex vertical, and is now extending that into retail, enterprise, and international, says the analyst, who sees the company continuing to take share even as penetration rises.
• FOUR BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of Shift4 Payments with a Neutral rating and $42 price target. The company has a strong core platform, and Global Blue expands its long-term opportunity, but travel pressure, integration, leverage, and a leadership transition are all hitting at once, the analyst tells investors.
• JKHY BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill reinstated coverage of Jack Henry with a Neutral rating and $165 price target. Jack Henry's growth recovery is "real," but already in the firm's above-Street estimates, says the analsyt, who sees further upside coming from earnings rather than a re-rating.
• LQDA BofA analyst Jason Gerberry raised the firm's price target on Liquidia (LQDA) to $42 from $38 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following a global litigation settlement with United Therapeutics (UTHR) that resolves all six pending lawsuits between the companies. Importantly, the settlement provides certainty around continued commercialization of Yutrepia in pulmonary arterial hypertension, the analyst tells investors.
• ASML BofA lowered the firm's price target on ASML to $2,858 from $2,915 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm raised to its calendar year 2025-28 EPS estimates and remains "well above pre-results consensus," but cites lower sector multiples for its lowered target.

• FCFS Canaccord raised the firm's price target on FirstCash to $265 from $252 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following its quarterly round of store checks to assess business trends in the fall and found simply stated, "it's been about average," but "it's going to start getting really busy" and "the end of November through the holidays is when it's really busy."

• ELOX Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Eloxx Pharmaceuticals with an Overweight rating. Eloxx is advancing exaluren in Phase 2 trials for Alport syndrome and autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, with topline data expected in mid-2027 and 2028, respectively, offering under-the-radar rare-disease upside following its June 2026 Nasdaq relisting, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• OKTA Citi raised the firm's price target on Okta to $215 from $205 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says its latest chief investment officer survey shows cybersecurity spending trends have improved. AI deployment identifiably is catalyzing security investment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites the "constructive survey backdrop" for the target boost.
• PANW Citi raised the firm's price target on Palo Alto Networks to $440 from $410 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says its latest chief investment officer survey shows cybersecurity spending trends have improved. AI deployment identifiably is catalyzing security investment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites the "constructive survey backdrop" for the target boost.
• ZS Citi analyst Fatima Boolani raised the firm's price target on Zscaler to $260 from $245 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says its latest chief investment officer survey shows cybersecurity spending trends have improved. AI deployment identifiably is catalyzing security investment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites the "constructive survey backdrop" for the target boost.
• META Citi raised the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $895 from $800 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview for the internet group. Meta's product roadmap is becoming more clear into 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes investor focus will be on Muse and Wonder adoption as well as Meta's superintelligence product roadmap.
• MSFT Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised the firm's price target on Microsoft to $636 from $600 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Citi says its recent chief investment officer survey and reseller checks reinforce its view that Microsoft's core productivity and public cloud franchise should accelerate as enterprises increase AI spending. Microsoft remains among best positioned AI vendors, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• DK Goldman Sachs analyst Alexa Petrick raised the firm's price target on Delek US to $97 from $83 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
• MRNA Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter raised the firm's price target on Moderna to $137 from $120 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Moderna's detailed Phase 3 intismeran melanoma results at ESMO on October 24 are a key catalyst, with an RFS hazard ratio below 0.70 viewed as necessary to support shares, while initial Phase 1 pancreatic cancer safety and immunogenicity data could further validate the therapy's potential in immunotherapy-resistant solid tumors, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ACI JPMorgan downgraded Albertsons to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $14 following the fiscal Q2 report. While the shares trade at a sizable discount to other U.S. food retailers, this could be warranted given Albertsons' ongoing operational challenges and its acknowledgement this week that its self-help initiatives have not been as effective as it planned, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Even if Albertsons resists deeper price investments, its earnings could remain pressured by market share losses to lower priced retailers, especially in the current consumer environment, contends JPMorgan.
• MGEE JPMorgan initiated coverage of MGE Energy with a Neutral rating and $76 price target. The firm views MGE as a "high-quality, relatively low-risk" vertically integrated utility offering single-digit earnings growth. However, the firm believes the stock's current valuation already captures much of the company's business quality.
• FVRR JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth lowered the firm's price target on Fiverr to $10 from $11 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the internet group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The firm reduced estimates for Fiverr

• BHF Keefe Bruyette analyst Ryan Krueger lowered the firm's price target on Brighthouse Financial to $55 from $57 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm sees some near-term upside optionality if a public hearing is scheduled for the Aquarian merger, but also acknowledges further downside risk if the deal breaks, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BLK Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on BlackRock to $1,310 from $1,290 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The Q3 results demonstrate the embedded operating leverage of a firm of BlackRock's scale, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PGR Keefe Bruyette analyst Meyer Shields lowered the firm's price target on Progressive to $246 from $252 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm still expects stabilizing personal auto PIF year-over-year growth in the near term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• STT Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on State Street to $230 from $220 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. While State Street posted a fee-driven revenue miss, returns were strong and the company maintained the fee guidance and raised the NII guidance for FY26, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CRUS KeyBanc analyst John Vinh downgraded Cirrus Logic (CRUS) to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target. Apple (APPL) supplier cuts indicate iPhone units are likely to decline in 2027 and 80% of Cirrus Logic's revenues are tied to Apple, the analyst tells investors in a research note. KeyBanc does not think iPhone units will decline 5%-10% next year, but says it is "pretty clear" that Apple is taking a more conservative outlook on iPhone units over the next year, which suggests units will be flat to down slightly. As such, Cirrus' growth prospects appear limited over the next 6-12 months, the firm contends. In addition, KeyBanc believes the company's emerging PC diversification opportunity will likely be pushed out given the elevated memory pricing cycle

• BAC Morgan Stanley analyst Manan Gosalia lowered the firm's price target on Bank of America to $61 from $67 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The fine stemming from OCC/FinCen investigation into AML issues and fee miss "add noise," but yesterday's underperformance on "an under-owned stock suggests it is closer to being de-risked," the analyst tells investors.
• PFGC Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Performance Food Group to $136 from $131 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Slower QSR trends and some issues with lettuce make for a tougher Q3 for many, though overall demand was resilient again despite many headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a Q3 preview for the restaurants and food distributors group.
• SYY Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour raised the firm's price target on Sysco to $91 from $88 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Slower QSR trends and some issues with lettuce make for a tougher Q3 for many, though overall demand was resilient again despite many headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a Q3 preview for the restaurants and food distributors group.
• USFD Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on US Foods to $111 from $107 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Slower QSR trends and some issues with lettuce make for a tougher Q3 for many, though overall demand was resilient again despite many headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a Q3 preview for the restaurants and food distributors group.
• WING Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Wingstop to $202 from $238 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Slower QSR trends and some issues with lettuce make for a tougher Q3 for many, though overall demand was resilient again despite many headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a Q3 preview for the restaurants and food distributors group.
• QSR Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour raised the firm's price target on Restaurant Brands to $82 from $79 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Slower QSR trends and some issues with lettuce make for a tougher Q3 for many, though overall demand was resilient again despite many headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a Q3 preview for the restaurants and food distributors group.

• TSM Needham analyst Charles Shi raised the firm's price target on TSMC to $560 from $530 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a strong beat-and-raise quarter with revenue ahead, gross margin in-line, and CapEx in-line vs. expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Without giving any details, TSMC management sees potential for AI accelerator revenue growth to be above the current guidance of mid- to high-50s CAGR in 2024-2029, the firm added.

• WDAY Stifel raised the firm's price target on Workday to $175 from $160 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after having attended Workday Rising 2026 and Analyst Day, where management reiterated FY28 targets of about 11% subscription growth and a 33%-plus non-GAAP operating margin. While the conference showcased agent progress, customer commentary points to mixed near-term AI adoption trends, leaving the firm to believe that near-term revenue growth acceleration is unlikely, the analyst tells investors.
• POST Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Post Holdings to $100 from $125 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Earnings remain under pressure, primarily reflecting the weak volume growth environment and sustained inflation, the analyst tells investors in a preview for the food packager and producer group.
• VITL Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Vital Farms to $9 from $11 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Earnings remain under pressure, primarily reflecting the weak volume growth environment and sustained inflation, the analyst tells investors in a preview for the food packager and producer group.

• HGV Susquehanna lowered the firm's price target on Hilton Grand Vacations to $39 from $50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the timeshare space as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Concerns around the health of the consumer persist, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TNL Susquehanna lowered the firm's price target on Travel + Leisure to $75 from $95 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the timeshare space as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Concerns around the health of the consumer persist, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Susquehanna is positive on Travel + Leisure given the company's "strong recurring revenue stream and demonstrated margin resiliency through the cycle."
• VAC Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Marriott Vacations to $115 from $110 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the timeshare space as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Concerns around the health of the consumer persist, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• BLK UBS raised the firm's price target on BlackRock to $1,300 from $1,277 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. BlackRock's accelerating 11% organic base fee growth and strength in private markets and ETFs support durable growth and potential to exceed 2030 targets, while shares remain below historical valuations amid market uncertainty, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MSFT UBS analyst Karl Keirstead raised the firm's price target on Microsoft to $675 from $525 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Microsoft's 39% rally has raised growth expectations, but Azure and M365 fundamentals support the optimism and valuation remains reasonable, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• EQT UBS analyst Josh Silverstein lowered the firm's price target on EQT Corporation to $76 from $77 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Gas E&Ps offer attractive risk/reward near 52-week lows, supported by 20+ Bcf/d demand growth, stronger realizations, cost and midstream improvements, and potential winter volatility boosting Q1 pricing, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SPB UBS resumed coverage of Spectrum Brands with a Buy rating with a price target of $97, up from $78. Despite near-term consumer and cost pressures, improving earnings power could drive above-consensus sales growth and EBITDA as conditions normalize, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GIL UBS analyst Jay Sole lowered the firm's price target on Gildan Activewear to $71 from $111 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Gildan faces a volatile demand backdrop that could drive a roughly 2% Q3 revenue miss, FY26 guidance cuts, and a 5c-10c EPS reduction, though bearish sentiment suggests much of the weakness may already be priced in, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• TENB Wells Fargo analyst Richard Poland raised the firm's price target on Tenable to $38 from $35 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says that its ten deep dives with partners and reseller survey indicate cyber spend building momentum into 2027. Results suggest firewall cycle continues, helped by price, Wells adds.
• VRNS Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Varonis to $53 from $48 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that its ten deep dives with partners and reseller survey indicate cyber spend building momentum into 2027. Results suggest firewall cycle continues, helped by price, Wells adds.

• DRUG Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Bright Minds with an Outperform rating and $150 price target.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: None

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for September

• Earnings After the Close: AZZ

• Paris Auto show, 10/12-10/18
• SEMICON West, 10/13-10/14, in San Francisco, CA
• China Imports/Exports/Trade Balance for September
• China PPI, CPI data for September

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for September

• Earnings After the Close: EDUC EQBK HOMB

• Paris Auto show, 10/12-10/18
• SEMICON West, 10/13-10/14, in San Francisco, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Empire Manufacturing for October
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for October
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales – Less Autos for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business Inventories M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET EIA Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AA IBKR INDB JBHT SFNC WAFD WSE

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