Early Look

Friday, March 13, 2026

After sliding as low as 6,640 for S&P futures last night, prices are 50 points off those levels and back in positive territory nearing 6,700 as Wall Street awaits another round of key inflation data later this morning with the January PCE inflation reported as well as Q2 GDP data (2^nd estimate). U.S stocks tumbled on Thursday as the Iran war has driven a sharp rise in oil prices that has destabilized markets, sending the three major US stock benchmarks to their lowest closing levels of 2026 — and at their lowest points since November. Wall Street's equity indexes tumbled more than 1% Thursday, and the S&P 500 suffered its third straight day of declines with crude oil futures jumping more than 9% as Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said that the country will fight on and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel. Oil's settlement, which scored its highest level in nearly four years, comes as the disruption of traffic through the Strait causes massive supply headaches, boosting shares of energy, chemicals stocks on supply fears. The U.S. dollar index touched its highest level since late November as investors looked for safety. The greenback rose against the euro for its third day in a row as investors worried about Europe's dependence on imported oil and the dollar/yen climbs to its highest level since Japan’s 2024 intervention around 159.50 as the dollar is on track for second weekly rise. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -633 points to 53,819, the Shanghai Index fell -33 points to 4,095, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -251 points to 25,465. In Europe, the German DAX is down -92 points to 23,497, while the FTSE 100 is down -21 points to 10,284. Bitcoin +3.1% at $72,400 overnight and Ethereum +3.15% at $2,128, while the 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.27%. In earnings news, shares of Adobe (ADBE) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) both decline overnight after earnings results.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -739.42 points, or 1.56%, to 46,677.85
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -404.16 points, or 1.78%, to 22,311.98
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -53.91 points, or 2.12% to 2,488.99

• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) M/M for January…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Y/Y for January est. +2.9% (prior +2.9%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for January…est. +0.4% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for January…est. +3.1% (prior +3.0%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2^nd estimate for Q3…est. +1.4%
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending 2^nd estimate for Q3…prior +2.4%
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q3 2^nd estimate…est. +3.6%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices for Q3-preliminary…est. +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Prices for Q3-preliminary…est. +2.9% (prior +2.9%)
• 10:00 AM ET                 JOLTs Job Openings for January…est. 6.7M
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence for March-prelim…est. 55.0
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Iran said it does not plan to close the Strait of Hormuz, according to Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, though he said Tehran reserves the right to ensure security in the waterway.
• The International Energy Agency warned that the war involving Iran has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, pushing global production to its lowest level in four years.
• US providing temporary authority to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea; measure aimed at stabilizing energy markets amid rising Crude prices - CNBC
• Japan Fin Minister Katayama says oil prices remain high, caution is warranted; higher oil prices are having major impact on financial markets; need to mitigate impact as much as possible; prepared to take all necessary steps on FX amid rising oil prices; in closer contact with US authorities on FX.

• Nio Inc. (NIO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC and raise tgt to $6.80 from $4.80 as the firm sees better visibility and has "stronger conviction" on Nio's 2026 volume growth and earnings improvement trajectory following the Q4 report.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Q4 EPS $8.01 vs est $8.03 on revs $3.9B vs est $3.804B, gr mgn 38.1%; guides FY sales +6-7% vs est +5.96%, comps +2.5-3.5%, operating Income +6-9% vs est +7.03% and EPS $28.05-28.55 vs est $28.40.
• Zumiez (ZUMZ) Q4 EPS $1.16 vs est $1.08 on sales $291.308Mm vs est $289.13Mm; guides Q1 net sales $189-193Mm vs est $184.55Mm and EPS ($0.87)-($0.77) vs est ($0.75).
• American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) Q3 EPS $0.12 on sales $56.6M, down -3.3% y/y; Quarterly gross margin was 41.0%, compared with quarterly gross margin of 44.7% y/y; still sees FY26 revenue $191M-$193M vs. $222.32M in FY25 as the underlying decline in net sales for FY26 would be approximately 5%.
• American Public Education (APEI) Q4 EPS $0.67 vs est $0.37 on revs $158.3Mm vs est $151.82Mm; sees FY26 EPS $2.15-$2.47, vs. consensus $2.73 and sees FY26 revenue $685M-$695M, vs. consensus $687.92M; announces authorization of new $50M buyback program.
• Funko (FNKO) Q4 adj EPS $0.05 vs est $0.00, adj EBITDA $23.3Mm vs est $21.92Mm on revs $273.096Mm vs est $260.67Mm; guides Q1 sales -2% to flat vs est +8.2%, gr mgn 41-43% and adj EBITDA breakeven vs est $5.347Mm; sees FY sales +0-3% vs est +10.5%, gr mgn 41-43% and adj EBITDA $70-80Mm vs est $77.87Mm.

• China will release fertilizers from national commercial reserves ahead of spring planting, it said on Friday, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict in the Middle East disrupts global supplies.
• Sinopec, the world's biggest refiner by capacity, aims to cut throughput this month by more than 10% from its original plan in response to a crude supply gap caused by the war in the Middle East – Reuters.

• Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) Q4 EPS ($0.62) vs est ($0.54) on operating expenses $29.2Mm; says cash balance expected to support operations through 2027.
• Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS) Q4 EPS ($0.15) vs est ($0.13) on operating expenses $12.217Mm.
• Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) Q4 sales $21.8M, down from $29.2M y/y; Revenue for FY25 was $55.2M compared to $98.4M in 2024 saying revs primarily decreased y/y because they no longer recognize product sales due to the December 2024 sale of the Huntsville manufacturing facility, as well as a decrease in non-cash royalty revenue.

• BE Semiconductor (BESIY) shares rise after Reuters reported it has been fielding takeover interest, as demand for its chip-packaging technology has become more critical for semiconductor equipment makers. The company is working with Morgan Stanley (MS) to evaluate potential approaches, and potential suitors include Lam Research (LRCX), while and Applied Materials (AMAT), which already holds a 9% stake https://tinyurl.com/7rskvbfu
• Broadcom (AVGO) begins production shipments of world’s first 102.4 Tbps AI  Network Switch; company says Tomahawk 6 switch family now shipping in  production volume, doubling throughput vs. Tomahawk 5; chip supports  512×200G or 1024×100G SerDes and targets large-scale AI
• ByteDance is working with Aolani Cloud to use 500 Nvidia (NVDA) Blackwell computing systems in Malaysia, totaling around 36,000 B200 chips, in an effort to become a global AI leader – WSJ reports.
• Meta (META) has postponed the release of its artificial intelligence model "Avocado" to at least May, from this month, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing sources. The performance of Meta's new AI model currently falls between Google's (GOOGL) AI Gemini 2.5 and Gemini 3, delaying its launch until May or June.
• PagerDuty (PD) Q4 adj EPS $0.30 vs. est. $0.22; Q4 revs $124.8M vs. est. $122.96M; says strategic partnerships with Anthropic, Cursor and LangChain expand PagerDuty ecosystem to more than 30 AI partners across 11 categories to power the future of AI-first operations; sees FY27 adjusted EPS $1.23-$1.28 vs. consensus $1.20 and sees FY27 revenue $488.5M-$496.5M, vs. consensus $506.86M.
• Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) Q4 adj EPS $0.04 vs. est. loss (-$0.11); Q4 revs rose 46% y/y to $377.7M vs. est. $342.37M; Q4 subscription ARR grew 34% y/y to $1.46B, 2,805 customers with $100K or more in subscription ARR, up 25% y/y; guides Q1 revenue $365M-$367M, vs. consensus $350.56M and FY27 revs $1.597B-$1.607B, vs. est. $1.58B.
• SentinelOne (S) Q4 adj EPS $0.07 vs est $0.06, adj EBIT $15.5Mm vs est $14.81Mm on revs $271.2Mm vs est $271.16Mm, adj gr mgn 78% and adj EBIT mgn 6%; guides Q1 revs $276-278Mm vs est $277Mm, adj EBIT $4-6Mm vs est $13.39Mm and adj EPS $0.01-0.02 vs est $0.05; sees FY revs $1.195-1.205B vs est $1.204B, adj EBIT $110-120Mm vs est $87.85Mm and adj EPS $0.32-0.38 vs est $0.30.
• ServiceTitan (TTAN) Q4 EPS ($0.44) vs est $0.18, adj EBIT $27.1Mm vs est $16.62Mm on revs $254Mm vs est $245.48Mm; guides Q1 revs $255-257Mm vs est $252.02Mm and adj EBTI $27-28Mm vs est $19.78Mm; sees FY revs $1.11-1.12B vs est $1.097B and adj EBIT $128-133Mm vs est $101.94Mm.
• BuzzFeed (BZFD) flagged doubts about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, March 13, 2026

U.S. stocks edged higher on Friday, while oil prices dip as investors awaited further developments in the Iran war. Major averages are still on track for weekly declines despite mostly in-line inflation reports this week with CPI on Wednesday and the PCE Index for January today. GDP for Q2 estimate was weaker than expected, boosting chances for Fed rate cuts. Markets still remain under pressure after two difficult weeks driven by geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty. The S&P 500 has fallen about -3% since the start of the U.S. conflict with Iran, while oil prices have climbed above $100 a barrel and the VIX volatility index is nearing 30 as inflation and recession fears in the U.S. grow. Also, the U.S. is developing a new tariff strategy after the Supreme Court struck down earlier tariffs, launching Section 301 investigations into manufacturing sectors across several countries. New tariffs could emerge by midyear. Stock markets still remain hostage to the headlines out of Iran and as oil prices hover near $100 per barrel. The U.S. dollar index touched its highest level since late November as investors looked for safety. The greenback rose against the euro for its third day in a row as investors worried about Europe's dependence on imported oil and the dollar/yen climbs to its highest level since Japan’s 2024 intervention around 159.50 as the dollar is on track for second weekly rise. The dollar/yen peaked at 159.69 hitting the highest since July 2024 with the move accelerating after breaking the 2026 high of 159.45. Bitcoin early strength rising over 4% topping $73,000 after months of depressed prices.

• Personal outlays rose 0.4% M/M in January, more than the +0.3% consensus and even with the prior rate of +0.4%. Meanwhile, personal income also grew 0.4% M/M, slightly lower than the +0.5% consensus, but a bigger gain than the 0.3% increase in December.
• U.S. GDP increased by an annual rate of +0.7% in Q4, revised downwards from +1.4% in the first estimate and the +4.4% growth seen in the prior quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revision in Q4 GDP growth reflects downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Personal consumption expenditures rose at an annual rate of 2%, vs. the 2.4% growth estimated in the initial reading and +3.5% in Q3. PCE price index: +2.9%, vs. +2.9% in the advance estimate and +2.8% prior. PCE price index, excluding food and energy: +2.7%, vs. +2.7% in advance estimate and +2.9% prior
• New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods were unexpectedly unchanged in January, and shipments of these products fell, pointing to weakness in business spending on equipment early in the first quarter. The flat reading in non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, followed an unrevised 0.8% increase in December, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Friday.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim March 55.5 (consensus 55.0) vs final Feb 56.6; the current conditions index prelim March 57.8 vs final Feb 56.6 and the expectations index prelim March 54.1 vs final Feb 56.6. University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim March 3.4% vs final Feb 3.4% and survey of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim March 3.2% vs final Feb 3.3%.

• Commodity Chemicals: Wells Fargo upgraded shares of APD (tgt to $325 from $270), CE (tgt to $70 from $55), and NTR (tgt to $100 from $177) saying they see pricing upside across several chemical chains as a result of the conflict in Iran which should support near term sentiment & upside to 1H26 outlooks. Given supply constraints and elevated oil prices due to the conflict in Iran, the firm expects pricing for commodity chemical and fertilizer chains to be higher, leading US to upwardly revising 1H26E estimates. While price increases will likely be short-lived following a resolution to the conflict, they see earnings revisions biased upward. Wells also says expects paints & coatings names may face worsening raw material inflation (solvents, resins) as a result of the conflict.
• In Semiconductors: BE Semiconductor (BESIY) shares rise after Reuters reported it has been fielding takeover interest, as demand for its chip-packaging technology has become more critical for semiconductor equipment makers. The company is working with Morgan Stanley to evaluate potential approaches, and potential suitors include LRCX, while and AMAT, which already holds a 9% stake https://tinyurl.com/7rskvbfu . AVGO begins production shipments of world’s first 102.4 Tbps AI  Network Switch; company says Tomahawk 6 switch family now shipping in  production volume, doubling throughput vs. Tomahawk 5; chip supports  512×200G or 1024×100G SerDes and targets large-scale AI.

• CVNA +3%; after announces a 5 for 1 stock split.
• IP +6%; rises following two large insider purchases by Anders Gustafsson, Director on the last two days per filings.
• KLAR +6%; board chair Michael Moritz bought $50 million worth of the firm's shares in recent days, while chief product & design officer David Fock bought $388,552 worth of shares, according to form 4 SEC filings.
• LEN +2%; after mixed results as Q1 EPS missed consensus but revenue topped estimates; Q1 gross margin of 15.2% was 360bps lower yr/yr, while sees Q2 gross margin 15.5-16.0% vs 16.3%.

• ADBE -7%; delivered solid FQ1 results that were largely in line / slightly higher vs expectations on revenue and EPS, but the combination of lower monetization of new Creative subs and a bigger decline in Stock led to a slight shortfall in total ARR ($26.06B or 10.9% vs expectations of ~11%), while also announced CEO was retiring.
• CF -5%; while shares have surged on potash/nitrogen supply disruption due to Middle East concerns, as many fertilizers are shipped through Strait of Hormuz (which remains blockaded) shares slide today after Senator Josh Hawley on Thursday accused the co and other fertilizer giants of price gouging (32% spike in prices in 12-days).
• EVCM -11%; after mixed results as Q4 payments revs declining 1.0% Y/y versus growth of 6.0% Y/y last quarter (first payments rev decline since going public July 2021) while revs/Ebitda was above consensus while Q1 guidance was weak as EBITDA of $39.0M-$41.0M (est. $44.9M) on revenue of $145.5M-$148.5M (est. $151.2M).
• KLC -37%; shares tumbled after Q4 EPS and revs topped consensus though noted its net loss widened due to impairment charges tied to stock price decline and Q4 enrollments were down -3.6% on a normalized basis; guided Q1 revs and FY26 revs below consensus.
• META -2%; has postponed the release of its artificial intelligence model "Avocado" to at least May, from this month, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing sources. The performance of Meta's new AI model currently falls between Google's (GOOGL) AI Gemini 2.5 and Gemini 3, delaying its launch until May or June
• PAR -14%; after pricing a private offering of $250M aggregate principal amount of 4.00% Convertible Notes.
• PODD -3%; after saying it initiated a voluntary medical device correction for certain lots of Omnipod 5 Pods after identifying a manufacturing issue. "Certain Pods from specific lots may have a small tear in the internal tubing that delivers insulin.
• ULTA -9%; shares slide as beat sales estimates and forecast annual sales above estimates, but the cosmetics retailer forecast annual profit below estimates citing higher costs, seeing $28.05-$28.55, with the mid-point below expectations of $28.40; also noted holiday quarter op margin fell to 12.2% from 14.8% y/y.

Closing Recap

Friday, March 13, 2026

U.S. stocks closed the day and week with losses, as the escalating tensions between the U.S./other countries with Iran dominated all the market action, as higher oil prices of $100 per barrel raises inflation and recessionary concerns, keeping U.S. markets under pressure all day. Headlines earlier that the Pentagon is moving additional Marines and warships to the Middle East as Iran steps up its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, according to three U.S. officials, was met with a wave of stock market selling pressure, as defensive Staples, REITs and Utilities led in the S&P 500. The President also said the U.S. was going to be hitting Iran "very hard over the next week", shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil. Another mostly in-line inflation reading this morning, the January PCE data followed similar data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) midweek but did little to help markets. A weaker GDP reading did help improve expectations of a more active rate cutting Fed this year, but not today. Overall, a week totally dominated by macro stories, commodities and currencies while Treasury yields also surged. Next week is a huge week for Central Bank action as on Tuesday, the RBA Policy Announcement (cash rate increase of 25bps to 4.10% is forecast), on Wednesday, the FOMC Policy Announcement and Press Conference, as well as Bank of Canada Policy Announcement. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ) – no change expected, but hawkish tone is and European Central Bank (ECB) headline with other players including Sweden’s Riksbank Policy Announcement and the Switzerland decision. After Monday's rally SPX moved lower for 4 consecutive days as stock markets ended near lows of the day, with no lift at all Friday.

• Personal outlays rose 0.4% M/M in January, more than the +0.3% consensus and even with the prior rate of +0.4%. Meanwhile, personal income also grew 0.4% M/M, slightly lower than the +0.5% consensus, but a bigger gain than the 0.3% increase in December.
• U.S. GDP increased by an annual rate of +0.7% in Q4, revised downwards from +1.4% in the first estimate and the +4.4% growth seen in the prior quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revision in Q4 GDP growth reflects downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Personal consumption expenditures rose at an annual rate of 2%, vs. the 2.4% growth estimated in the initial reading and +3.5% in Q3. PCE price index: +2.9%, vs. +2.9% in the advance estimate and +2.8% prior. PCE price index, excluding food and energy: +2.7%, vs. +2.7% in advance estimate and +2.9% prior
• New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods were unexpectedly unchanged in January, and shipments of these products fell, pointing to weakness in business spending on equipment early in the first quarter. The flat reading in non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, followed an unrevised 0.8% increase in December, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Friday.

• Oil prices rose on the day and week as U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $98.71/bbl, up $2.98, or 3.11% while Brent crude settled at $103.14/bbl, up $2.68, or 2.67%. It was the second close above $100 per barrel in as many days. The market view that the recent IEA's oil reserve release and the U.S. temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil are only short-term fixes with hard talk rhetoric towards Iran overshadowing.
• The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States rose by 1 this week to 133, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday. US oil drilling rig count up 1 at 412 (down 75 vs year ago) in week to March 13 and Nat gas drilling rig count up 1 at 133 in week to March 13 -- Baker Hughes

• Treasury yields finished higher on the week, as the benchmark 10-year yield rose 15.2 bps to 4.284%, up a whopping 32 bps the last two weeks and rising 5 straight days, longest streak of rising yields since Tuesday, July 8, 2025, when the yield rose for five straight trading days. The shorter term 2-year yield slipped today, but ended the week +17.7 bps to 3.732%, up 35 bps the last two weeks and the 2^nd highest yield this year. Yield is up 0.355 percentage point from its 52-week low of 3.377% (just 2 weeks ago).

• In Beauty Products: ULTA shares slide as beat sales estimates and forecast annual sales above estimates, but the cosmetics retailer forecast annual profit below estimates citing higher costs, seeing $28.05-$28.55, with the midpoint below expectations of $28.40; also noted holiday quarter op margin fell to 12.2% from 14.8% y/y.
• In Education sector: KLC shares tumbled after Q4 EPS and revs topped consensus though noted its net loss widened due to impairment charges tied to stock price decline and Q4 enrollments were down -3.6% on a normalized basis; guided Q1 revs and FY26 revs below consensus (2026 revenue of $2.70B-$2.75B vs. est. $2.75B) driven by a ~3% enrollment decline and operating de-leverage (was downgraded at Morgan Stanley). APEI reports top/bottom lone beat, higher guide and stock buyback.
• In Autos: CVNA announced a five-for-one stock split; NIO was upgraded from Hold to Buy at HSBC Holdings and raised tgt to $6.80 PT after the Chinese EV maker reported its first quarterly net profit in Q425 (RMB0.12B), supported by strong volumes and disciplined cost management. Vehicle volumes increased 43% q-o-q and 71% Y-o-y, significantly outperforming the broader EV market (5% q-o-q and 16% Y-o-y). BYDDF and JD signed an agreement on fast-charging stations for electric vehicles, according to a statement released on BYD's Chinese social media platform.

• GSK said the FDA has expanded the approved age range for its respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, Arexvy, to include adults aged 18 to 49 who are at increased risk of lower respiratory tract disease caused by the virus. The vaccine is already approved in the U.S. for preventing RSV-related disease in adults aged 60 and above.
• PODD shares fell after saying they initiated a voluntary Medical device correction for certain lots of Omnipod 5 Pods after identifying a manufacturing issue. "Certain Pods from specific lots may have a small tear in the internal tubing that delivers insulin.
• SYK said after data breach that its operations continue to be disrupted, including its order processing, manufacturing and shipping. In addition, the company does not believe that its patient-related services have been disrupted or that its connected products were impacted by the incident.

• Commodity Chemicals: Wells Fargo upgraded shares of APD (tgt to $325 from $270), CE (tgt to $70 from $55), and NTR (tgt to $100 from $177) saying they see pricing upside across several chemical chains as a result of the conflict in Iran which should support near term sentiment & upside to 1H26 outlooks. Given supply constraints and elevated oil prices due to the conflict in Iran, the firm expects pricing for commodity chemical and fertilizer chains to be higher, leading US to upwardly revising 1H26E estimates. While price increases will likely be short-lived following a resolution to the conflict, they see earnings revisions biased upward. Wells also says expects paints & coatings names may face worsening raw material inflation (solvents, resins) as a result of the conflict.
• In Metals & Mining: AA was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $68 from $50 on rising aluminum prices due to the Iran war tightening supply (notes aluminum prices have rallied 12% on regional supply risk). The firm says any prolonged conflict is likely to result in additional force majeure declarations followed by smelter curtailments, which could take at least quarters to re-ramp. CSTM announced a share buyback plan of up to $300 million.
• In Rare Earth (MP, USAR, CRML, UAMY, TMQ): USTR Greer says the U.S. aims to ensure continued access to rare earths critical for domestic manufacturing; comments highlight strategic importance of supply chains for defense, EVs, semiconductors, and energy tech; focus remains on reducing dependence on China and strengthening domestic production.

• In Internet: META has postponed the release of its artificial intelligence model "Avocado" to at least May, from this month, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing sources. The performance of Meta's new AI model currently falls between Google's (GOOGL) AI Gemini 2.5 and Gemini 3, delaying its launch until May or June.
• On optical/photonics sector: AAOI shares added to sharp Thursday losses after boosting its ATM ("at-the-market") offering from $250M to $500M, per amended SEC filing. AAOI shares tumbled 16.4% on Thursday, suffering steepest daily pct drop since April after new Citrini report on photonics stocks.
• Hardware & Components: AAPL is cutting App Store fees in China to 25% from 30% and to 12% from 15% for smaller developers.  The changes take effect March 15.
• In Media News: The NFL and PSKY are discussing a media renewal deal for Sunday games, with executives from both parties negotiating a price increase with a bid-ask spread midpoint around 50% or 60%

• 1) ADBE delivered solid FQ1 results that were largely in line / slightly higher vs expectations on revenue and EPS, but the combination of lower monetization of new Creative subs and a bigger decline in Stock led to a slight shortfall in total ARR ($26.06B or 10.9% vs expectations of ~11%), while also announced CEO was retiring.
• 2) EVCM shares tumble after mixed results as Q4 payments revs declining 1.0% Y/y versus growth of 6.0% Y/y last quarter (first payments rev decline since going public July 2021) while revs/Ebitda was above consensus while Q1 guidance was weak as EBITDA of $39.0M-$41.0M (est. $44.9M) on revenue of $145.5M-$148.5M (est. $151.2M).
• 3) PD reported largely disappointing Q4 results, with ARR growth of only $2M sequentially and 1% y/y and missing Street estimates by 60 bps and net retention that fell by 2%s sequentially to 98% while guided FY27 rev growth at the midpoint (prior consensus had growth of 4%), and flat operating margins relative to FY26
• 4) SentinelOne (S) saw analysts lowered prices tgts after results and guidance; delivered revenue in line with FactSet consensus, while operating margin and ARR came in slightly above expectations
• 5) TTAN delivered solid Q4 results, with a 3.7% revenue beat and 4 pts of Outperform mgn upside though the rev beat was a touch lighter ($9M vs $10M prior 4-qtr avg), and though FY27 revenue was guided above consensus (+16% Y/y guide vs +15.1%), some investors were hoping for a slightly higher starting point given run in shares.

• AVGO begins production shipments of world’s first 102.4 Tbps AI  Network Switch; company says Tomahawk 6 switch family now shipping in  production volume, doubling throughput vs. Tomahawk 5; chip supports  512×200G or 1024×100G SerDes and targets large-scale AI

Street Recommendations

Friday, March 13, 2026

• DKS Barclays raised the firm's price target on Dick's Sporting to $264 from $242 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the Q4 report. The company's adjusted earnings matched consensus, driven by a sales beat, offset by a margin miss, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Foot Locker's inventory cleanup progressed faster than expected, allowing a shift to the next phase of the its turnaround, store fleet improvement

• GAMB Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey lowered the firm's price target on Gambling.com to $6 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Modest Q4 profitability outperformance is offset by a softer 2026 outlook that incorporates regulatory and marketing headwinds, says the analyst, who sees this presenting "a balanced setup."
• SEAT Benchmark lowered the firm's price target on Vivid Seats to $10 from $18 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Vivid Seats "capped off a tough 2025 with an unsurprisingly disappointing 4Q print," says the analyst, who acknowledges that the consumer and AI fears are unlikely to abate any time soon, but views the story as "cleaner," while arguing that consolidation "remains a real potential catalyst."

• ADBE BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman lowered the firm's price target on Adobe to $285 from $375 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company reported a mixed quarter with solid current remaining performance obligations and revenue but light on annual recurring revenue in part due to stock weakness, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Adobe's focus on user acquisition through freemium offerings is dampening near-term annual recurring revenue though it could create more growth durability over the longer term, BMO adds.
• PAYX BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Paychex to $103 from $121 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares ahead of its Q3 results on March 25th. The firm expects decent results with revenue tracking towards the low end of FY guidance but with better profitability, the analyst tells investors in a research note. This mixed outlook is unlikely to alter the broader narratives around the stock, BMO adds, stating that the company is navigating choppy macro conditions and integrating recently acquired Paycor, which will take time to reflect normalization in the financial model.

• EQNR BofA raised the firm's price target on Equinor to NOK 345 from NOK 260 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Reflecting risks of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the firm's commodities research team raised oil and gas price forecasts across 2026-27, driving higher price targets across the firm's European oil and gas coverage.
• SHEL BofA analyst Christopher Kuplent raised the firm's price target on Shell to 3,250 GBp from 2,900 GBp and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Reflecting risks of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the firm's commodities research team raised oil and gas price forecasts across 2026-27, driving higher price targets across the firm's European oil and gas coverage.
• E BofA raised the firm's price target on Eni to EUR 21 from EUR 18.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Reflecting risks of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the firm's commodities research team raised oil and gas price forecasts across 2026-27, driving higher price targets across the firm's European oil and gas coverage.
• BP BofA raised the firm's price target on BP to 400 GBp from 370 GBp and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Reflecting risks of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the firm's commodities research team raised oil and gas price forecasts across 2026-27, driving higher price targets across the firm's European oil and gas coverage.

• HCAT Canaccord analyst Richard Close lowered the firm's price target on Health Catalyst to $2 from $5 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm maintained its rating but acknowledged there is nothing to do right now until the company completes its strategic and operational reviews. The transition from DOS to Ignite is leading to the expectation of down-selling and potential customer attrition in some cases.
• PD Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on PagerDuty to $9 from $19 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said its Q4 results reflect familiar trends throughout FY26: operational discipline driving profit upside, fits and starts with revenue growth, and forward-looking guidance coming in below expectations.
• CAE Canaccord analyst Mark Neville upgraded CAE to Buy from Hold with a price target of C$49, up from C$38, as a new analyst assumed coverage. CAE is the global leader in simulation and training solutions in both Civil and Defense, which are markets with strong long-term secular tailwinds, and its global footprint, large installed base, and technical know-how create "prohibitive switching costs for customers," the analyst tells investors.
• NOA Canaccord upgraded North American Construction to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of C$20. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade following the stock's 27% drop post earnings. The analyst sees "deep value potential" in the stock. While there is still some risk associated with the Fargo infrastructure project, it is manageable, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Canaccord says that despite North American Construction's Q4 miss, its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecasts are largely unchanged. The selloff "creates an opportunity for highly risk tolerant, patient investors to buy on the cheap," contends the firm.
• S Canaccord analyst Kingsley Crane lowered the firm's price target on SentinelOne to $17 from $23 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they continue to think the investment story is underappreciated at current levels. With roughly 20% top-line growth, a clear path toward double-digit operating margins, and a platform narrative that is increasingly supported by the data, particularly the rapid growth in multi-product adoption, they believe the growth-adjusted valuation remains attractive relative to security peers.
• SEAT Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Vivid Seats to $10 from $12 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said they reported soft Q4 results, with GOV and revenue remaining under pressure, reflecting double-digit declines in industry volumes, a still challenging competitive backdrop, and the ongoing impact from the loss of a private label customer in 3Q25.

• STTK Citi raised the firm's price target on Shattuck Labs to $7 from $4 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Citi also added an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on Shattuck. The company is slated to report initial Phase 1 data for SL-325 in healthy volunteers in Q2, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes the data could highlight SL-325's differentiation versus competing anti-TL1A antibodies.

• NVGS Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on Navigator Holdings to $25 from $24 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a Q4 beat and issued a positive outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• S Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges lowered the firm's price target on SentinelOne to $14.50 from $16.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The Endpoint security category remains attractive as a gateway to broader SOC automation platforms, but SentinelOne's results have been mixed compared with larger platform peers, with limited upside to revenue expectations and growing pressure to demonstrate stronger profitability progress by FY27, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• WOOF Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Petco to $3.95 from $4.53 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Petco reported a solid quarter with adjusted EBITDA better than guided and above consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MTZ Jefferies raised the firm's price target on MasTec to $348 from $271 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company is executing across all four segment, says the analyst, who sees premier growth rates relative to peer averages and is raising the firm's estimates.

• AA JPMorgan upgraded Alcoa to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $68, up from $50. Since the conflict in Iran began, aluminum prices have rallied 12% on regional supply risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says any prolonged conflict is likely to result in additional force majeure declarations followed by smelter curtailments, which could take at least quarters to re-ramp. JPMorgan cites aluminum supply risk for the upgrade of Alcoa. It sees a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels.
• ULTA JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $750 from $800 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm recommends using the post-earnings selloff as a buying opportunity. JPMorgan views Ulta's outlook as conservative and says the company's quarter-to-date comp is running well above its 4% estimate.
• ADBE JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy lowered the firm's price target on Adobe to $420 from $520 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's revenue and remaining performance obligations growth accelerated in the quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm views Adobe's annual recurring revenue headwinds as temporary.

• ADBE Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss lowered the firm's price target on Adobe to $365 from $425 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Despite significant portfolio expansion for AI capabilities and an early shift to monetization, investors likely need firmer evidence of a growth re-acceleration and/or material positive revisions to the forward outlook to ease concerns on AI competition and "get back on-board," says the analyst, whose largely unchanged forward forecasts are met with meaningful compression in the peer multiple
• ULTA Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $700 from $750 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Execution of the company's "Unleashed" strategy reinforces Ulta's share gain potential, but near-term upside hinges on sustained comp outperformance and better visibility on normalizing SG&A spending, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• DG Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Dollar General to $150 from $160 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Gross margin drivers and incremental digital upside supports a path to its 6%-7% margin target over time, but the firm sees limited upside from the current price, the analyst tells investors.
• S Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on SentinelOne to $17 from $18 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Having set "more reasonable guidance for the year," pointing to upside on margins and hiring a new CFO who has a history of scaling efficiently, the firm thinks "there are ingredients here" for the stock to outperform as the year goes on, the analyst tells investors.

• GAMB Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Gambling.com to $8 from $12 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Gambling.com reported a 1% Q4 adjusted EBITDA beat, but established FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance about 5% and 17% below implied guidance introduced at Q3 at the midpoints of the ranges, notes the analyst, who adds that "narrative far outweighs fundamentals right now for AI-exposed sectors."
• HCAT Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Health Catalyst to $2 from $3.75 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Q4 results were modestly better than pre-release, but Q1 revenue and EBITDA guidance was below consensus and FY26 guidance is delayed as the company conducts a strategic review, notes the analyst, who remains sidelined pending more "conclusive data points that the company is successfully executing its strategy."

• CTSH TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Cognizant to $71 from $85 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said meetings with management brought an operators perspective with frank discussion of traditional services deflation from GenAI, but confidence in new AI- driven value pools scaling.
• PD TD Cowen analyst Andrew Sherman lowered the firm's price target on PagerDuty to $10 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Q4 revenue beat but the shift to usage-based model is key and is showing some good early signs incl. several large multi-year deals.

• APD Wells Fargo last night upgraded Air Products to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $325, up from $270. The firm sees pricing upside across "several chemical chains" due to the conflict in Iran. This should support near term investor sentiment and upside to second half of 2026 outlooks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells upgraded three chemical names as a result. Given supply constraints and elevated oil prices, pricing for commodity chemical and fertilizer chains will move higher, contends the firm. It believes the pricing momentum supports "elevated trough multiples" for chemical stocks.
• CE Wells Fargo analyst Michael Sison last night upgraded Celanese to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $70, up from $55. The firm sees pricing upside across "several chemical chains" due to the conflict in Iran. This should support near term investor sentiment and upside to second half of 2026 outlooks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells upgraded three chemical names as a result. Given supply constraints and elevated oil prices, pricing for commodity chemical and fertilizer chains will move higher, contends the firm. It believes the pricing momentum supports "elevated trough multiples" for chemical stocks.
• DKS Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Dick's Sporting to $200 from $225 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says momentum on core Dick's Sporting Goods continues with solid same-store sales, non-competitive opportunities, and optionality on ancillary profit drivers, but the key debate remains on if solving for product will drive the turnaround at Foot Locker.
• ADBE Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Adobe to $330 from $405 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. NNARR below expectations and surprise CEO transition likely put Adobe back in the penalty box after an encouraging Q, the firm says. Wells believes that the key next questions tie back to AI consumption's ability to offset headwinds, which looks necessary to reach ROY ARR.
• ULTA Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Ulta Beauty to $475 from $500 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares as the setup from here is clearly shifting. While 2025 was one for the Bulls, the company's quarterly results set a challenging tone for that case to continue into 2026, with issues on both comparable sales and margin likely to de-rate shares back to historical norms.
• S Wells Fargo analyst Richard Poland raised the firm's price target on SentinelOne to $14 from $13 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q4 results and FY27 topline guide met expectations while margin came in above. To Wells, greater emphasis on growth over margin would've helped it gain more comfort that initial NNARR guidance leaves room for upside. The firm says risk-reward remains balanced.

• WM Wolfe Research initiated coverage of WM with a Peer Perform rating an no price target. WM is the largest and most established player in the waste management industry and despite the firm's estimates being in line with consensus for the next two years, it views the FY27 targets outlined at the June 2025 investor day as "now skewing slightly aggressive," the analyst tells investors. The firm sees a year-end 2026 fair value range of $202-$321.
• RSG Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Republic Services with a Peer Perform rating. Republic Services' diversified portfolio provides the company with multiple ways to win, but estimates appear well-balanced, and the firm does not see a major dislocation in the absolute or relative valuation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GFL Wolfe Research initiated coverage of GFL Environmental with an Outperform rating and C$74 price target. GFL Environmental remains a relative newcomer in the solid waste industry, but its growth versus peers appears sustainable as margins, free cash flow, and leverage rapidly improve toward levels seen at more established competitors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company represents a compelling rate-of-change story as operational and financial metrics continue to strengthen, the firm says.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for February
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization for February
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for March

• Earnings After the Close: AGRO AREN CATX DCGO GETY KLTR LIDR NGS PLBY SMTC TBRG ZEPP

• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Piper 26^th Annual Energy Conference, 3/16-3/18, in Las Vegas, NV

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for February
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $16B in 20-year auction
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BOBS CBUS DOCU HQY IZEA KMTS LULU NN NRGV OKLO QFIN SCOR TRVI TTAM ZTO

• Bank America 2026 Automotive Summit, 3/17
• Bank America Global Industrials Conference, 3/17-3/19
• Keybanc Virtual Healthcare Forum, 3/17-3/18
• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Piper 26^th Annual Energy Conference, 3/16-3/18, in Las Vegas, NV

• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline Y/Y for February
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core - Ex: Food & energy M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core - Ex: Food & energy Y/Y for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Durable Goods orders M/M for January
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Interest rate Meeting – no change is expected
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC flows for January

• Earnings After the Close: ALVO DLO FIVE HYPR MU RCAT USIO

• Keybanc Virtual Healthcare Forum, 3/17-3/18
• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Piper 26^th Annual Energy Conference, 3/16-3/18, in Las Vegas, NV
• Sidoti Smallcap Conference, 3/8-3/19 (virtual)

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for March
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for January
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: CURV ECOR ETON FDX GEMI GRWG IDN NYXH PL SCHL YSS

• Goldman Sachs Inaugural Intermountain Health Tech Conference, 3/19-3/20, in Park City, Utah
• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Sidoti Smallcap Conference, 3/8-3/19 (virtual)

.