Early Look

Friday, October 9, 2026

After mixed results on Thursday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling, btu the Dow and Russell 2000 rising, US futures are looking at a higher open as tech looks to rebound into the weekend. The Nasdaq pulled back notably on Thursday, more than 1% and is now down -2% from its recent all-time highs on Tuesday as weakness in AI related sectors/semiconductors weighed on the tech sector after a Financial Times report that OpenAI's annualized revenues were closer to $50B at the end of September, well below the $70B figure previously circulated. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index slipped -11 points to 69,030, the Shanghai Index edged higher by 1 points to 3,813, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 425 points to 24,211. In Europe, the German DAX is up 225 points to 25,033, while the FTSE 100 rises 77 points to 10,518. A relatively quiet morning of economic data with the University of Michigan Confidence at 10:00 AM ahead of key inflation data next week with September CPI and PPI inflation readings mid-week. Also next week, the unofficial start to Q3 earnings season with big banks out JPM, Citi, GS, BAC, WFC and others. This morning in earnings airline Delta (DAL) missed results and cut its outlook for the year. Telecom stocks (VZ, T, TMUS) are lower and tower stocks AMT, CCI, SBAC are higher after SpaceX (SPCX) struck a deal to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio that will enable Starlink Mobile to become a major telecom operator in the US. In Managed care, shares f HUM surge and ALHC falls after CMS announced star ratings overnight. lastly, optical stocks LITE, AAOI, CIEN, COHR surge on positive demand comments from LITE CEO.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 51.77 points, or 0.10%, to 51,231.64
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -345.35 points, or 1.25%, to 27,193.34
• The Russell 2000 Index edged higher 0.92 points, or 0.03% to 2,794.13

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE October crop report
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• India criticized the Trump administration’s suspension of the Permanent Labor Certification program, saying the decision conflicts with the shared ambitions of the two countries. The U.S. suspended multiple companies from using the system as Vice President JD Vance called for technology companies to hire more American workers and alleged widespread fraud in the H-1B visa program.
• China will build technology monitoring, risk warning and emergency response systems to ensure AI is safe, reliable and controllable, state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Friday, citing new government guidelines.

• VF Corp. (VFC) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan with an unchanged price target of $18 citing valuation as sees a neutral risk/reward at current share levels following its recent fieldwork.

• Oil-Dri Corp. (ODC) Q4 EPS $1.00, +12% YoY; net sales $129.3Mm, +3% YoY, a quarterly record driven by better product mix; B2B sales $50.1Mm, +4% YoY; R&W sales $79.2Mm, +3% YoY; gross profit $36.0Mm, +3% YoY; gross margin 27.8%, flat YoY despite 3% higher domestic cost of goods per Ton; operating Income $18.2Mm, +17% YoY; EBITDA $24.1Mm, +13% YoY.
• Park Aerospace (PKE) Q2 EPS $0.21 vs. $0.12 a year ago and $0.17 est, +75% YoY; sales $20.8Mm vs. est. $20.0Mm, +27% YoY and +14% QoQ from $18.3Mm; adj. EBITDA $5.29Mm vs. $3.40Mm, +55% YoY, est $4.658Mm; 1H sales $39.1Mm vs. $31.8Mm; 1H adj. EBITDA $9.86Mm vs. $6.36Mm; 1H EPS $0.37 vs. $0.22; cash and marketable securities $114.7Mm vs. $89.4Mm at March 1.
• SpaceX (SPCX) announced an agreement to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio that will enable Starlink Mobile to become a major telecom operator in the US.

• Gemini (GEMI) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $4.75 from $5.50 as believes the better crypto backdrop may not resolve Gemini's scale and distribution challenges or deliver profitable growth.
• Genworth (GNW) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at KBW Inc. and Voya Financial (VOYA) also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform as the firm reduced Q3 EPS estimate by 1% on average for the life insurance group and trimmed 2027 EPS estimate by 1% due to weaker Q3 markets, the analyst tells investors in a preview.

• Humana Inc. (HUM) shares jumped 15% overnight after announced improved Star Ratings for 2027, highlighted by 95% of its Medicare Advantage members being enrolled in plans rated 4.0 stars or above by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Additionally, 42% of Humana Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in 4.5-star plans for 2027.

• Apple Inc. (AAPL) plans to debut its first touch-screen MacBook and a new iPad mini around October 27, per Bloomberg. The launch is scheduled on or around Tuesday, October 27, per people with knowledge of the matter. It will also include 14-inch MacBook Pro and iMac versions with M6 chips. The new MacBook Pros will be lighter than current models and have OLED screens and the Dynamic Island interface. The iPad mini will also get an OLED screen and a revamped speaker system.
• Optical stocks rising (CIEN, AAOI, GLW) after Lumentum (LITE) CEO Says optical parts are ‘completely sold out’ through early 2029; expects significant supply shortfalls for some products through 2028; Nvidia invested $2B each in Lumentum and peer Coherent (COHR) earlier this year.
• Telecom stocks Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T) and T Mobile (TMUS) shares fall after SpaceX (SPCX) struck a deal to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio that will enable Starlink Mobile to become a major telecom operator in the US. SPCX will pay about $8 billion in cash for the assets to the seller, private-equity firm Grain Management. The deal raises the stakes for legacy carriers, transforming satellite direct-to-device connectivity from a supplementary safety feature for remote dead zones into a full-scale commercial rival capable of unseating terrestrial cellular networks.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, October 09, 2026

U.S. stock futures were higher overnight and holding gains early as oil prices have retreated as President Trump pledged not to attack Iran before the mid-term elections and yesterday’s AI volatility has cooled on fresh optimism over OpenAI revenue expectations. There was a lot of criticism about the initial Financial Times report regarding OpenAI from Thursday noting the whole $50B in revs vs. $70B debate is simply a function of math and how one calculates ARR, not an issue of demand slowing sharply, which is what the headline initially implied. A Bloomberg report overnight talked about how OpenAI is aiming to have ARR (on a net basis) of $70B by the end of the year vs. ~$50B as of Sept. Oil prices extend losses in afternoon European trading, even as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated and Hurricane Isaias threatens production in the U.S. Gulf Coast. In stock news, CMS released its 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings overnight and drove sharp dispersion across managed care: HUM, CLOV shares surge while ALHC tumbles after its flagship California plan dropped to 3.5 stars. Tower operators AMT, CCI, SBAC surge and Telco giants VZ, T, and TMUS tumble after SpaceX's roughly $8B purchase of low-band spectrum from Grain Management. Airlines sliding on weaker earnings/guidance cut from Delta (DAL).

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim Oct 4.7% vs final Sept 4.6% and 5-year inflation outlook prelim Oct 3.5% vs final Sept 3.4%.

• Managed care sector: shares of HUM jump and ALHC decline after CMS announces start ratings for plans. Humana said 95% of its Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in plans rated at least four stars for 2027, an improvement that could make more of its membership eligible for quality-related bonus payments. ALHC shares tumbled after saying one of its 2027 Medicare Advantage plans received a 3.5-star rating (down from prior 4-star) from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. UNH’s UNH will have 67% of its MA members enrolled in 4+ Star plans, down 11% from 78% in the prior year. CVS will have 69% of its MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, compared to ~81% last year. The 2 largest contracts retained 4.5 and 4.0 stars, respectively. ELV will have 45% of its MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, compared to ~55% last year. The y/y decline was primarily related to contract H3655, which represents 7.6% of MA membership. CNC now has only 9% of total MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, vs. 16% last year. CLOV shows H-5141 improving from 4.5 to 5 Stars, putting ~98% of its membership in a 5-Star contract.
• Multi-Industry sector: ITW downgraded Illinois Tool Works to Neutral from Overweight (tgt to $270 from $350) following a transfer of coverage citing concerns around decelerating short cycle industrial demand into 2027. The firm favors names that offer high OSG in '27 (FPS, GEV, RRX, SPXC, TT), consistent 'compounders' (PH), later-cycle end-market plays (EMR, HON), and Self-help stories where consensus factors in little improvement (MMM, RRX). JPM downgrades DD (remove from Analyst Focus List) amidst concerns over decelerating Short Cycle Industrial demand into 2027.
• In the eVTOL sector: Barclay’s upgraded ACHR to Overweight and EVTL to Equal Weight from Underweight while downgraded JOBY to Underweight as the firm rolled out coverage of the aerospace and defense group, saying the U.S. is in the early innings of a modern day industrial revolution and they have a positive view of the sector, preferring defense technology.

• CLOV +4%; rises on CMS rating changes; shows H-5141 improving from 4.5 to 5 Stars, putting ~98% of its membership in a 5-Star contract.
• FSLY +6%; upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer with 435 tgt saying their bullish stance is predicated upon its strong industry checks that indicate growing contract values (growing attach of newer Security products) and early monetization of agentic Ai traffic.
• HUM +14%; said 95% of its Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in plans rated at least four stars for 2027, an improvement that could make more of its membership eligible for bonus payments. About 42% of Humana's Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in 4.5-star plans.
• LITE +6%; CEO said optical parts are ‘completely sold out’ through early 2029; expects significant supply shortfalls for some products through 2028; Nvidia invested $2B each in LITE and COHR earlier this year; shares of other optical stocks AAOI, CIEN, COHR also strong off commentary.
• SPCX +3%; as agreed to acquire Grain Management's 800 MHz portfolio, up to 14 MHz of paired spectrum for Starlink Mobile, subject to FCC approval.
• TEVA +6%; said it had received approval from the US FDA for Weltruza, a once-monthly injection for adults with schizophrenia. Weltruza is the second US-approved product from Teva's partnership with French biotech company MedinCell.

• ALHC -18%; shares tumbled after saying one of its 2027 Medicare Advantage plans received a 3.5-star rating (down from prior 4 star) from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. CVS health-insurance business, Aetna, said more than 69% of its Medicare.
• DAL -2%; after Q3 adj EPS $1.72 misses the $1.89 consensus on revs $17.59B vs. est. $17.66B; cuts adjusted annual EPS to $5.10-$5.60, down from the $6.50-$7.50 it forecast in July as the new midpoint of $5.35 is below analysts' average estimate of $5.46.
• TMUS -9%; along with weakness in other telecom carriers T, VZ after SPCX is set to acquire a portfolio of low-band wireless spectrum licenses from PE firm Grain Management for approximately $8B in cash, as the assets include up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band.

Closing Recap

Friday, October 09, 2026

U.S. stocks rebounded after Thursday’s Tech induced selloff, but rebounded on Friday, closing out the week not far off record highs. Global stock markets edged higher despite US government bond yields ticking higher and oil prices holding above $100 a barrel after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before next month's midterm elections. Europe closed higher by more than 1% in many markets while the U.S. remains just off all-time highs for the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite into the start of earnings season next week and key inflation data (CPI, PPI). Investors also weighed another wave of fundraising by technology companies while borrowing costs in some of the world's biggest economies hovered near multi-year highs. The S&P 500 hit a record high of 7,844.52 earlier this week but later eased, as a bond market rout pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since April 2002, 5.3645%, amid inflation concerns, weighing on sentiment. for the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.15%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.64%, and the Dow climbed 0.93% (biggest weekly gain since week ended August 7). The Nasdaq marks fourth weekly gain in a row for first time since its 6-week streak that ended on May 8.

Reminder Monday is Columbus Day: the U.S. stock market is open, but bond markets are closed as well as banks so could be a low volume day ahead of Q3 earnings start. In addition to the start of earnings season, next week data dominated by key inflation data with the September consumer price index (CPI) on 10/14 and PPI data on Thursday. Bank earnings next week from Citi, JPM, GS, WFC on Tuesday 10/13, BAC, BLK, MS, STT on Wednesday 10/14, BNY, FHN, PNC, SCHW, USB on Thursday 10/15, and CFG, MTB, RF, TFC, TRV on Friday 10/16.

US large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap funds recorded net outflows of $14.08 billion, $1.03 billion, and $834 million, respectively. Investors, however, made net investments of $5.68 billion in sectoral funds, led by technology, which attracted $4.53 billion. Utilities and industrials drew $1.18 billion and $1.04 billion, respectively. US bond funds recorded a weekly record of $19.78 billion in inflows. US equity funds recorded outflows in the week ended October 7, following two consecutive weeks of inflows. Investors withdrew a net $5.11B from US equity funds during the week in their first weekly net sales since September 16, LSEG Lipper data showed.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim Oct 4.7% vs final Sept 4.6% and 5-year inflation outlook prelim Oct 3.5% vs final Sept 3.4%.

• Diesel futures turned lower Friday after President Trump said he agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to a deal in which Russia will supply increasing amounts of diesel fuel to the "American and Global Marketplace." Trump made the announcement in a Truth Social post shortly before 3 p.m. ET.
• The euro declined for a 5^th straight week, holding under 1.12 vs. the US dollar and down -1.1% this month and -4.67% YTD as investors worried about France's record public debt and the difficult political path to budget cuts, vs. a strong looking US economy and currency.
• December gold settles +$59.30/oz, or +1.43%, at $4,216.30 while December silver settles +$1.62/oz, or +2.73%, at $61.05 an ounce.

• Food & Beverages sector: SFD shares fell after Bank America downgraded to Neutral from Buy saying the pork backdrop has worsened, with weak belly and ham demand and lower lean-hog futures reducing expected hog profits against still-elevated feed costs.
• Auto sector: TSLA China-made Electric vehicle sales rose 5% y/y in September, picking up from ‌a 3.6% increase in August, as the company's sales rebound in Europe continued. Deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y ​vehicles built in its Shanghai factory, including ​exports to Europe, Asia Pacific and Canada, increased ⁠to 95,366 units from 90,812 y/y.

• Aerospace sector: Global leasing giant Avolon said it had agreed to order 140 Aircraft from BA and 110 from EADSY, with an option to buy a further 100 jets from the European planemaker. Avolon, a subsidiary of China's Bohai Leasing Co said the order comprised of 140 Boeing 737 Max jets, 75 Airbus A320neo planes and 35 A330neos, with options for a further 100 unspecified Airbus Aircraft.
• Multi-Industry sector: ITW downgraded Illinois Tool Works to Neutral from Overweight (tgt to $270 from $350) following a transfer of coverage citing concerns around decelerating short cycle industrial demand into 2027. The firm favors names that offer high OSG in '27 (FPS, GEV, RRX, SPXC, TT), consistent 'compounders' (PH), later-cycle end-market plays (EMR, HON), and Self-help stories where consensus factors in little improvement (MMM, RRX). JPM downgrades DD (remove from Analyst Focus List) amidst concerns over decelerating Short Cycle Industrial demand into 2027.
• In the eVTOL sector: Barclay’s upgraded ACHR to Overweight and EVTL to Equal Weight from Underweight while downgraded JOBY to Underweight as the firm rolled out coverage of the aerospace and defense group, saying the U.S. is in the early innings of a modern day industrial revolution and they have a positive view of the sector, preferring defense technology.
• Energy sector: Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. Rig Count is up 5 from last week to 603 with oil rigs up 6 to 462, gas rigs down 1 to 132 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 9. The U.S. Rig Count is up 56 rigs from last year's count of 547 with oil rigs up 44, gas rigs up 12 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged. Refiners PSX, DINO, VLO, MPC hit fresh 52-week highs earlier, but pulled back late day after President Trump said concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin where it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to American and global marketplace. Russia will immediately supply another 500,000 tons during month of November, and 1,000,000 tons immediately thereafter.

• Brokers & Exchanges: CBOE was upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley and raised tgt to $358 from $258 saying the S&P contract renewal removes a key overhang for the shares, while  also believes CBOE's key performance indicator contracts add upside outside estimates.
• Crypto sector: GEMI was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $4.75 from $5.50 as believes the better crypto backdrop may not resolve Gemini's scale and distribution challenges or deliver profitable growth.
• Insurance sector: GNW was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at KBW Inc. and VOYA also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform as the firm reduced Q3 EPS estimate by 1% on average for the life insurance group and trimmed 2027 EPS estimate by 1% due to weaker Q3 markets, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• REIT sector: The REIT sector faced a more challenging backdrop during 3Q26, as higher long-term interest rates, renewed inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and an increasingly active election cycle weighed on investor sentiment. During 3Q26, the MSCI U.S. REIT Index generated a total return of -6.9%, underperforming the S&P 500 by 890bps. Notably, nearly all of the underperformance occurred during September, which coincided with the Fed's first rate hike since 2023.

• Healthcare sector movers: Vaccine stocks were broadly highs NVAX, MRNA, ARCT, BNTX after the New York Times highlighted mRNA Medicines and vaccines for cancer. Cancer vaccines are the N.I.H’s Next ‘Big Bet’ the article noted as new details have emerged about an initiative that starts in December to fast-track the vaccines, similar to the successful push for the COVID-19 vaccine. Shares of DNA, TWST, RXRX, TEM rallied as well on the article as personalized mRNA cancer vaccines are not mass-produced; each starts with tumor sequencing, neoantigen selection, and custom nucleic-acid synthesis, then manufacturing.
• Managed care sector: shares of HUM jump and ALHC decline after CMS announced ratings for plans. Humana said 95% of its Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in plans rated at least four stars for 2027, an improvement that could make more of its membership eligible for quality-related bonus payments. About 42% of Humana's Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in 4.5-star plans. On the flip side, ALHC shares tumbled after saying one of its 2027 Medicare Advantage plans received a 3.5-star rating (down from prior 4-star) from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. UNH’s UNH will have 67% of its MA members enrolled in 4+ Star plans, down 11% from 78% in the prior year. CVS will have 69% of its MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, compared to ~81% last year. The 2 largest contracts (H5522 and H5521) retained 4.5 and 4.0 stars, respectively. ELV will have 45% of its MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, compared to ~55% last year. The y/y decline was primarily related to contract H3655, which represents 7.6% of MA membership. CNC now has only 9% of total MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, vs. 16% last year. CLOV shows H-5141 improving from 4.5 to 5 Stars, putting ~98% of its membership in a 5-Star contract.

• Hardware & Components sector: AAPL has told some of its suppliers to cut production of components for its newly launched iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, after soaring memory chip costs forced price increases that have dampened consumer demand. Multiple people familiar with the matter told Nikkei Asia that Apple has turned more conservative on shipments since early September, with two of them saying that component orders for this month have been slashed by at least 15% compared to what was originally requested, due to weaker-than-expected market demand.
• Optical sector was strong with shares of AAOI, LITE, COHR, CIEN, GLW advanced after LITE CEO said optical parts are ‘completely sold out’ through early 2029; expects significant supply shortfalls for some products through 2028; Nvidia invested $2B each in LITE and COHR earlier this year.
• Delivery content/Networking sector: FSLY was upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $35 tgt saying their bullish stance is predicated upon its strong industry checks that indicate growing contract values (growing attach of newer Security products) and early monetization of agentic Ai traffic.

Street Recommendations

Friday, October 9, 2026

• HUM Barclays raised the firm's price target on Humana to $582 from $515 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company recovered all of its large 3.5 star contracts including H5216, restoring its bonus mix to 93%, which paves a "clear path" to over $40 of earnings per share in 2028, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MSTR Barclays analyst Nik Cremo raised the firm's price target on Strategy to $175 from $160 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the payments and fintech group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Sector fundamentals remain strong, alongside a "resilient" consumer with September volatility in the sector attributable to rates and capital rotation to AI names, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RUN Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Sunrun to $12 from $14 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Sunrun's outlook remains tied to financing costs, direct-channel trends, and safe harbor execution, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that while interest rates pressure the company's customer economics and cash generation, stable financing markets, direct sales growth, and a largely defined safe harbor program may help mitigate some of the headwinds.
• WYNN Barclays analyst Brandt Montour lowered the firm's price target on Wynn Resorts to $128 from $136 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the gaming group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The analyst's gaming sector preference into earnings is regionals, digital, Las Vegas, and Macau, in that order.

• BABA BofA analyst Joyce Ju raised the firm's price target on Alibaba to $178 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which forecasts September quarter revenue growth of 10% year-over-year, in line with consensus, raised earnings estimates in FY27-29 by 3%-9% on stronger cloud momentum and efficiency gains across businesses.
• HAE BofA raised the firm's price target on Haemonetics to $140 from $120 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after CSL announced that it will transition away from Terumo's Rika and complete its roll out of Haemonetics' platform across its U.S. plasma centers by the end of 2027.
• PEP BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm's price target on PepsiCo to $145 from $152 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's Q3 beat came with better than feared Pepsi Foods NA organic sales and commentary on sequential organic revenue acceleration into Q4, but a lowered fiscal year earnings outlook signals ongoing cost challenges and raises questions around the ability to grow EPS in FY27, the analyst tells investors.
• DPZ BofA raised the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza to $455 from $450 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm slightly raised FY26 estimates, reflecting stronger Q3 and Q4 U.S. same-store sales growth and easing commodities, the analyst tells investors in a preview.

• CVI Goldman Sachs analyst Alexa Petrick raised the firm's price target on CVR Energy to $50 from $36 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. Investor focus centers on relative stock performance, Q3 earnings potential, and capital allocation, while low inventories, global supply disruptions, and resilient demand could support elevated estimates despite typical Q4 seasonality, with investors weighing dividends against deleveraging, M&A, and capex, the analyst says.
• PBF Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on PBF Energy to $91 from $81 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Investors are focused on capital allocation and the potential for strong cash flow to accelerate deleveraging, while a favorable margin environment, widening light-heavy differentials amid rising Canadian and Latin American supply, and management's approach to RVO obligations amid elevated RIN prices remain key earnings discussion points, the analyst says.
• PNR Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee lowered the firm's price target on Pentair to $60 from $73 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Water stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 by about 15% over three months amid persistent housing weakness and interest rate uncertainty, while limited improvement in pool and home construction remains a headwind and data center demand, project visibility, and content growth into 2027 are key earnings themes, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HAYW Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Hayward to $14 from $17 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Water stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 by about 15% over three months amid persistent housing weakness and interest rate uncertainty, while limited improvement in pool and home construction remains a headwind and data center demand, project visibility, and content growth into 2027 are key earnings themes, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• VFC JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss upgraded VF Corp. to Neutral from Underweight with an unchanged price target of $18. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade, seeing a neutral risk/reward at current share levels following its recent fieldwork.
• ALHC JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Alignment Healthcare to $10 from $22 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services last night released star ratings, which showed that Alignment stepped down from 98% of enrollment in 4-plys star plans to 24% for 2028, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan expects Alignment to be weaker in the near term, but thinks the stock's 35% drop in the past month already reflects many of the star concerns. It does not view the company "as a fundamentally broken story from here."
• ITW JPMorgan analyst Julian Mitchell downgraded Illinois Tool Works to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $270, down from $350, following a transfer of coverage. The firm cites concerns around decelerating short cycle industrial demand into 2027 for the downgrade. JPMorgan does not view the short cycle industrial complex as "particularly favorably, saying manufacturing PMIs may not show much further improvement from current levels. As such, it does not see substantial scope for positive estimate revision momentum at Illinois Tool Works.
• DD JPMorgan analyst Chigusa Katoku downgraded DuPont to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $145, down from $172. JPMorgan also removed DuPont from its Analyst Focus List. The firm cites concerns around decelerating short cycle industrial demand into 2027 for the downgrade. The thesis on share outperformance supported by a short cycle recovery has largely played out, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan adds that while DuPont's portfolio "has come a long way," a re-rate to the multi-industry valuation average will take time.

• RPM KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on RPM to $117 from $123 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes RPM's shares powered through an unexpectedly organic decline in CPG and perhaps a more expected guidance downgrade, demonstrating that the coatings sell-off largely driven by the Aug/Sept oil rally should be approaching its end. With the stock for several weeks less than $100, KeyBanc believes the risk/reward is increasingly positive, as it continues to expect a combination of organic growth/M&A, productivity gains, and an eventual price/cost tailwind to support mid/high single-digit EBITDA growth.
• ZETA KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Zeta Global to $38 from $27 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after attending Zeta Live in New York City, where customer conversations centered around product announcements and succeeding use cases in the enterprise, followed by new headless optionality for users. Speaking to customers and partners on the floor, the firm came away incrementally positive on the opportunity to capture spend in the marketing and advertising space driven by an agile Zeta platform coupled with an enhanced proprietary data graph.

• CRWD Needham raised the firm's price target on CrowdStrike to $310 from $250 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Based on its industry conversations the firm believes that Flex is unlocking demand rather than pulling it forward, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While initials migrations average a 40% ARR uplift, subsequent re-Flexes drive further expansion, Needham added.
• DIS Needham keeps a buy rating and $125 price target on Disney. The firm states that Streaming is now a meaningful revenue and profit contributor for the company, while its new cruise ships add capacity at higher prices as Disney is monetizing ore guests at higher price points, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MPB Piper Sandler initiated coverage of Mid Penn Bancorp with an Overweight rating and $42 price target. The firm sees "strong" earnings growth trajectory through 2027 as the bank integrates acquisitions and commercial teams ramp production. Mid Penn is in a "sweet spot for strong returns" given its net interest margin rebound and scale from recent deals, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PEP Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on PepsiCo to $140 from $176 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Despite a Q3 EPS beat, driven by strong International momentum, PEP faces growing input cost pressure and weak U.S. trends. Further brand spend increases are coming, also weighing on margins. It has a decent innovation pipeline for 2027, focused on functional benefits, like protein and hydration, but sustainable better growth is still unproven, argues Piper.
• NVST Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Envista to $26 from $28 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is formally updating its Envista model to account for VBP-related headwinds that management recently communicated at an institutional conference. Specifically, Piper is shifting $10M in orthodontic B&W revenue from the recently completed Q3 into Q4 and Q1 2027.
• XRAY Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Dentsply Sirona to $12 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is updating its Dentsply model to account for management's recent commentary regarding 2027 growth, and also introducing 2028 estimates for the first time as a broader market rotation has weighed, as have a combination of mixed macro/consumer/dental data points. Piper is not advocating for investors to "catch the falling knife," but is suggesting that pure valuation may protect against further downside, and that it may be wise to shift short-focused attention to other assets.
• UNH Piper Sandler analyst Jessica Tassan considers UnitedHealth's Star Ratings resilience impressive and underappreciated. Flat to down after hours, Overweight-rated UnitedHealth is trading at about 14-times conservative consensus 2028 adjusted EPS and is the most actionable stock idea in its coverage this morning, argues Piper. The firm would be a buyer of the stock into Q3 2026. OF note, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services published Medicare 2027 Part C & D Star Ratings last night.

• TMUS Scotiabank lowered the firm's price target on T-Mobile to $212 from $217 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. SpaceX's U.S. spectrum purchase yesterday makes the hybrid-network threat more credible, but dense market capacity and deployment economics remain unproven, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Scotiabank now sees a higher probability of long-term disruption and valuation pressure for AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon. It cites SpaceX's progress toward a strategy to compete over the long term for the target cut.
• VZ Scotiabank lowered the firm's price target on Verizon to $50 from $51.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. SpaceX's U.S. spectrum purchase yesterday makes the hybrid-network threat more credible, but dense market capacity and deployment economics remain unproven, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Scotiabank now sees a higher probability of long-term disruption and valuation pressure for AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon. It cites SpaceX's progress toward a strategy to compete over the long term for the target cut.

• ESTC Stifel analyst Brad Reback raised the firm's price target on Elastic to $120 from $107 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After having attended the ElasticON NYC conference and speaking to several partners and customers, the analyst reports that the conversations were "positive," and in particular highlighted strong momentum within the public sector business leading into the Federal fiscal year end.

• ZETA Truist analyst Terry Tillman raised the firm's price target on Zeta Global to $38 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after attending Zeta Live 2026. The company shared four announcements including its new operating system AthenaOS, Athena MCP which opens its platform to support a headless architecture, a set of new open source inference models fined-tuned to specific AthenaOS use cases, and that it is in the early stages of developing a specialized chip, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: None

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for September

• Earnings After the Close: AZZ

• Paris Auto show, 10/12-10/18
• SEMICON West, 10/13-10/14, in San Francisco, CA
• China Imports/Exports/Trade Balance for September
• China PPI, CPI data for September

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for September

• Earnings After the Close: EDUC EQBK HOMB

• Paris Auto show, 10/12-10/18
• SEMICON West, 10/13-10/14, in San Francisco, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Empire Manufacturing for October
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for October
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core: Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales – Less Autos for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business Inventories M/M for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET EIA Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AA IBKR INDB JBHT SFNC WAFD WSE

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