Early Look

Friday, April 10, 2026

U.S. stocks come in with the longest winning streak since October, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both riding a 7-day win streak ahead of key inflation data and US-Iran discussions in Islamabad at the weekend. With futures flat overnight as investors await new developments in the Iran embargo of ships thru the Strait of Hormuz, attention turns to inflation data this morning where U.S. consumer prices (CPI) likely recorded their biggest increase in nearly four years in March as the war with Iran boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted. The CPI likely increased 0.9% last month, a survey of economists predicted. That would be the largest monthly gain since June 2022, when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Estimates ranged from a 0.4% gain to a 1.7% jump. Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the CPI was estimated to have advanced 3.3%. That would be the largest increase since May 2024 and follow a 2.4% rise in February. Overall, anticipation of weekend talks between the US and Iran following this week’s ceasefire agreement are keeping markets on edge. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,028 points to 56,924, the Shanghai Index rose 20 points to 3,986, and the Hang Seng Index climbed 141 points to 25,893. In Europe, the German DAX is up 171 points to 23,878, while the FTSE 100 rises 40 points to 10,644.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275.88 points, or 0.58%, to 48,185.80
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 187.42 points, or 0.83%, to 22,822.42
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 15.86 points, or 0.61% to 2,636.32

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for March
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET CPI core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for March
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Durable Goods Orders M/M for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, April-prelim
• 10:00 AM Et                  University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, April-prelim
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for March
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal Budget for March
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• CTAs are currently short about $30 billion of S&P 500 futures. At present market levels, Goldman’s model suggests they could buy roughly $34 billion over the next week, as they cover bearish bets and flip back to net long positions – Bloomberg.

• Nike (NKE) was downgraded to neutral from overweight at Piper on concerns that athleisure is becoming too saturated across the industry; expects momentum in performance across the industry to continue, but says Nike is a quarter away from lapping big gains in running.
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens and cut tgt to $14 from $24 following Q2 results and a significant guidance reduction. Consumption was soft across the portfolio with pressure coming from distribution losses.

• Sherwin-Williams (SHW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight and tgt cut to $365 from $410 at Wells Fargo as believes the company's volume pressure will be more pronounced relative to RPM (RPM) and PPG Industries (PPG) and also cut Axalta Coating (AXTA) to EW from OW with $30 tgt from $39.

• Apple (AAPL) led global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of ‌2026, growing 5% y/y, even as ‌overall shipments fell due to a shortage of memory components, ​Counterpoint Research said on Friday. Global smartphone shipments fell 6% y/y as Middle East tensions also weighed on consumer sentiment.
• ChipMOS (IMOS) reports 23.1% YoY increase in March 2026 revenue; 25.4% YoY increase in Q126 revenue.
• Lumentum Holdings  (LITE), the Nvidia-backed Optical component maker shares have climbed 1,500% this year as enthusiasm about Ai-related infrastructure grows. Speaking to Bloomberg, CEO Michael Hurlston says their products are now sold out through 2027, and that while manufacturing capacity is expanding, it hasn’t yet caught up with hyperscaler demand.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Q1 revenue of T$1.134 trillion ($35.71 billion) vs analysts' average estimate of T$1.125 billion as revenue grows 35% y/y on surging interest in artificial intelligence applications

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, April 10, 2026

U.S. stocks off to a good start and looking to make it a second straight week of gains after falling five consecutive weeks prior. More massive tech gains (sans never ending software weakness on AI threat concerns) as the Philadelphia Se Semiconductor index (SOX) hits record high, last up 2.7% above 8,940, while optical stocks soar (AAOI, LITE, CIEN) along with memory (SNDK, WDC) and AI data infrastructure names (NBIS, CRWV, WULF). NVDA shares on track for its 8^th straight day of gains as recent Mag 7 strength from AMZN, GOOGL, META, NVDA have been the leaders in the recent 7 day winning streak for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Also today, as expected, CPI inflation jumped in March from February due to the spike in oil/energy prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.9% last month, the largest increase since June 2022 when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. In the 12 months through March, the CPI advanced 3.3% after rising 2.4% in February. Also, U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in early April, and consumers anticipated a surge in inflation in the next 12 months, as the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index tumbled to an all-time low of 47.6 this month from a final reading of 53.3 in March. Materials, Technology, Consumer Discretionary early leaders while Energy extends weekly loss along with Financials and Consumer Staples. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed, and Israel launched fresh attacks on Lebanon, which the United States and Iran each flagged as violations of their ceasefire deal on the eve of their first peace talks over the war. Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. delegation, set off for the talks in Pakistan today.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim April 47.6 (consensus 52.0) vs final March 53.3; University of Michigan surveys of consumers current conditions index prelim April 50.1 vs final March 55.8; University of Michigan surveys of consumers expectations index prelim April 46.1 vs final March 51.7
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim April 4.8% vs final March 3.8%; University of Michigan surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim April 3.4% vs final March 3.2%
• U.S. Feb factory orders unchanged (vs. consensus -0.2%) vs Jan unchanged (prev +0.1%); Feb factory orders ex-transportation +1.2% vs Jan +0.5% (prev +0.4%); U.S. Feb factory orders ex-defense +0.1% vs Jan +0.4%; U.S. Feb Durables orders revised to -1.3% from -1.4%; U.S. Feb nondurables orders +1.5% vs Jan +0.5%
• U.S. Feb total manufacturing inventories +0.1% vs Jan +0.1%; U.S. Feb nondefense cap orders ex-aircraft revised to +0.7% from +0.6%; Feb shipments revised to +1.0% from +0.9%; U.S. Feb inventories/shipments ratio 1.53 months' worth vs Jan 1.55 months.

• Optical sector getting more love with shares of AAOI, CIEN, AXTI, COHR moving higher early after LITE, the NVDA-backed Optical component maker CEO Michael Hurlston said their products are now sold out through 2027, and that while manufacturing capacity is expanding, it hasn’t yet caught up with hyperscaler demand. Sector caught some more volume after Citron Research said it was short AAOI- the anti-LITE noting two weeks ago AAOI was $85. Today it's $140. $3.5B in market cap added on a random press release. This stock should trade back to $85 once the roulette wheel stops spinning (which would still put it above consensus).  https://tinyurl.com/yc3eyrsw
• Data Center/AI infrastructure: CRWV announced an agreement with Anthropic to support the development and deployment of Anthropic's Claude family of AI models. The multi-year agreement will bring compute online starting later this year. Bloomberg noted last night that Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell called Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that Anthropic latest model will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. Seeing infrastructure sectors, with a strong focus on data Centers, high-performance Computing (HPC), artificial Intelligence (AI) seeing broad strength today with NBIS all-time highs, CRWV, WULF, IREN, HUT rising.
• Refiners: Goldman Sachs upgraded PARR (tgt to $77 from $53) and DK ($55 tgt) to Buy from Neutral saying they expect strong positive consensus estimate revisions due to strength in the company's Hawaii earnings and underappreciated mainland refiners for PARR and sees DK cost reduction efforts, small refinery exemptions, improved marketing and wholesale strategy, and growing logistics earnings driving stronger free cash flow generation. Also assumed PBF with a Neutral rating and CVI with a Sell rating as believes the company's capital allocation priorities will remain focused on debt paydown and potential inorganic growth.

• LITE +2%; as the NVDA-backed Optical component maker CEO Michael Hurlston said their products are now sold out through 2027, and that while manufacturing capacity is expanding, it hasn’t yet caught up with hyperscaler demand (shares of AAOI, COHR, AXTI, CIEN moved in sympathy as well)
• OGN +24%; after the Economic Times reported that Sun Pharmaceutical is set to make a $12 billion offer for debt-ridden company. Sun Pharmaceutical called the report speculative in nature. https://tinyurl.com/5648fv2a
• SHAK +2%; was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and raise PT to $120 from $100 at Mizuho saying checks point to Q1 comp sales growth upside, with drivers in place for comp momentum and restaurant-level margins ahead of current expectations as 2026 progresses.
• TSM +2%; after the company reported March sales that reinforced how the company is seeing strong AI demand.

• NOW -7%; was downgraded to Neutral at UBS and lowered their tgt to $100 from $170 saying their confidence has weakened that NOW is better positioned for this Ai Era relative to other application software firms
• PLTR 4%; extends declines to 10-month lows with broader software pullback on latest AI updates from Anthropic
• SMPL -5%; was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens and cut tgt to $14 from $24 following Q2 results and a significant guidance reduction. Consumption was soft across the portfolio with pressure coming from distribution losses.
• TGLS -6%; lowered its full-year adjusted Ebitda outlook due to tariffs on certain aluminum-containing products and derivatives (updates fy2026 adj EBITDA guidance to $225M-$245M)

Closing Recap

Thursday, April 09, 2026

U.S. stocks rallied for a 7^th straight day, longest streak since October 2025 and topping back above 200, 50 and 100dma moving averages in just a few days, as the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq recovered from morning losses. Stocks got a bump after US President Trump asked Israeli PM Netanyahu in a phone call yesterday to scale back Israel’s strikes in Lebanon to help ensure the success of the Iran negotiations. Later, Netanyahu said “in light of the repeated and ongoing appeals from Lebanon to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed the cabinet yesterday to open direct negotiations with Lebanon at the earliest possible time.” These headlines were enough to get stocks bouncing off the lows and push oil prices back below $100 per barrel, though Israel did not agree to stop strikes ahead of the talks. The US and Iran will hold in-person peace talks on Saturday in Pakistan as the US delegation includes VP JD Vance, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Stocks markets jumped, Treasury yields fell along with oil prices and precious metals pushed forward this afternoon though were choppy on  macro headlines. Markets continue to hang on every word on the Iran war/ceasefire, with improvements between Israel easing attacks on Lebanon to make the deal work giving stocks a lift this afternoon. Nearly all eleven S&P sectors were higher as Energy (XLE) gave up early gains to end lower, while Industrials, REITs Consumer Staples and Discretionary all posted solid gains in a relatively broad rally. Software stocks tumbled again (ORCL, SNOW, ZS) while Dow Transports hit a fresh all-time high. Next up, March CPI inflation data tomorrow morning after February core PCE index was slightly hotter this morning.

In weekly sentiment data: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index changed to 69.38 vs 68.36 last week - now the 5th straight Reading in the 60s - the 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 was the highest since 7-3-24 - 2025 trough from 4-16-25 of 35.16 - Last Quarter Average (Q1) was 82.00 (down from 92.26 in Q4); 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -7.3% vs -17.8% last week. Bulls rise to 35.7% from 33.6%, Neutrals rise to 21.3% from 15%, Bears fall to 43% from 51.4%.

• U.S.'s Q4 GDP estimate was further revised to +0.5% from the second estimate of +0.7%, which compares with +4.4% in Q3, according to final data released. Q4 PCE price index rose at +1.9% annual rate, compared to the prior estimate of +2.0% and vs. +3.5% in Q3. PCE price index, excluding food and energy: +2.7%, compared to the previous estimate of +2.7% and vs. +2.9% in Q3. Q4 Corporate profits: +5.7% vs. +4.7% in Q3
• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 219,000 from 203,000 in latest week and above consensus 210,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 209,500 from 208,000 prior week while continued claims fell to 1.794M from 1.832M the prior week and below consensus 1.840M.

• June gold rises +$40.80, or +0.85%, to settle at $4,818.00 while May silver rises +$1.05, or +1.40%, to settle at $76.44 an ounce.
•  

• In Beverage sector: STZ reported Q4 EPS of $1.90 that bested Consensus at $1.73 as the beat was driven by stronger beer sales flowing favorably through the P&L, while another ~11c stemmed from BTL items (namely interest and tax), while guided FY27 adj EPS $11.20-11.90 vs est $12.36 but withdrew their FY28 outlook. BF shares popped late morning after the WSJ reported Sazerac recently approached Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman about a potential deal, according to people familiar with the matter.
• In Hardline/Broadline Retail: COST reported net sales of $28.41B for March, the five weeks ended April 5, an increase of 11.3% from $25.51B last year. Net sales for the first 31 weeks were $173.26B, an increase of 9.1% from $158.87B last year. March had one less shopping day versus last year, due to the calendar shift of Easter.
• In Apparel Retail: CRI was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs and raise tgt to $38 from $29 saying they see a meaningful opportunity for Carter's to drive sales growth through share gains among households earning between $50,000-$200,000 annually.

• In Private Credit/Asset Managers: ARES will acquire WSR for $19.00 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $1.7B, the companies announced. The purchase price represents a 12.2% premium to Whitestone's closing stock price on April 8, 2026. CG’s flagship private-credit interval fund, the Carlyle Tactical Private Credit Fund, or CTAC, received repurchase requests amounting to roughly 15.7% of shares outstanding, more than three times the 5% redemption limit that the asset manager has set, WSJ reported.
• In Insurance: Evercore previewed the quarter saying brokers AON, AJG, MRSH stand out as relatively attractive in Q1 P&C Insurance/Broker preview given valuation and organic growth stability, but caution is warranted for most cml, personal, and reinsurance names into the prints-especially WRB, all feeling the squeeze from weaker pricing and tech-driven disruption. More pronounced pricing pressure is hitting large accounts and now filtering into SMID, with HIG, TRV, WRB, and AIG expected to miss topline. Cantor also previewed sector as they upgraded RNR from Neutral to Overweight and downgraded WRB from Overweight to Neutral while saying they are most constructive on AON (OW) and RNR (OW) and are most cautious on KNSL (N) and WTW (N).
• In Crypto/Blockchain: CRCL was downgraded to Sell from Neutral with new $77 PT at Compass Point alongside its expectation that gross margins are contracting in 1H26. Compass believes CRCL's outperformance since Q4 results was driven by USDC's resilience and growing expectations for margin expansion. BLSH was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Rosenblatt saying after significantly outperforming peers and effectively reaching the firms Price Target yesterday, it is taking a break and lowering its rating (notes BLSH shares are still up 2% YTD when Bitcoin is down 19% and most peers are down a lot more). GEMI shares bounced late day after CoinDesk reported that potential buyers eyeing deals for assets https://tinyurl.com/dw4cpv9

• KYMR said GILD has exercised its option to exclusively license KT-200, Kymera’s first-in-class oral CDK2 molecular glue degrader development candidate; triggers a $45 million milestone payment to Kymera; Gilead will now advance the program into IND-enabling studies, with an IND filing planned for 2027.
• Healthcare Services: GDRX said it will offer LLY’s newly approved oral weight-loss drug, orforglipron, for eligible self-pay customers starting at $149 a month, the lowest cash price at launch for eligible self‑pay customers; will also offer self-pay pricing for Lilly’s injectable obesity drug Zepbound, KwikPen, starting at $299 per month.
• Medical Equipment: STAA shares surged after issued prelim Q1 revenue above $90M, well above consensus of $67.6M (as Canaccord, which upgraded to Buy, said likely benefited to a certain degree from restocking post termination of merger with Alcon) and compares to $42.6M of revenue y/y.
• Healthcare Technology: HQY was upgraded to Outperform at BMO Capital and raised its tgt to $105 from $85 saying several recent developments/initiatives both elevate and increase BMO's conviction in HQY's longer-range growth outlook (to HSDs/LDDs vs prior MSDs/ HSDs), along with overblown Ai fears make attractive entry point.
• Drug Distributors: TD Cowen said they expect solid CQ1 prints for Pharma & Med. distributors, despite softer macro as prefers MCK setup into FQ4, W/ focus to be on FY27 guide (it expects management. to guide along LT segment growth targets); continues to believe CAH has most upside to guide but believe this is largely expected and sees MDLN Q1 beat and expect update on tariff and oil/commodity.
• Managed care: Cantor previewed quarter saying prefers UNH into the print & ELV as its consensus long pick of the year; CNC is becoming more attractive to US, but Cantor is sidelined until July Wakely data; CVS remains a safe play, though sentiment has some "priced to perfection" fears creeping in; MOH continues to have '26 EPS risks, in Cantor's view, while CI is ownable, but upside may be limited with no clear upcoming catalysts. Most investors remain sidelined on HUM until margin progression is confirmed.

• In Aerospace supply chain: Keybanc raised price tgts for AIR ($132 from $120), ATI ($167 from $140), and CRS ($453 from $380), saying their proprietary Q126 Plane Chain survey of Aerospace suppliers shows a meaningful step-up in OEM order activity, as the OEM production recovery gains momentum.
• In Metals sector: AA was upgraded to Overweight from EW at Morgan Stanley and raised tgt to $80 from $64 saying the stock is set to benefit from higher Aluminum prices due to a structurally tight market, further supported by recent disruptions in the Middle East (region accounts for ~9% of global supply). Precious metal prices saw a bounce behind a weaker dollar and Treasury yields.
• In Chemicals: Following significant YTD momentum for commodity chemical stocks, including Truist's covered TiO2 producers CC and TROX it raises its PTs on both companies, but downgrade shares of TROX to Hold from Buy, while remaining Buy-rated on CC. In Truist's view the prospect of stronger commodity pricing momentum has bolstered shares of both recently; it does see elevated risk that cost pressure and less favorable geographic mix has the potential to impact TROX earnings and cash flows near-term.

• In Ai/Data Centers: cloud provider NBIS is in talks to buy Israeli-based Ai startup AI21 Labs, according to people with knowledge of the deal reported the Information. The potential deal would help Nebius expand Ai services for its customers beyond its main business of renting out servers. CRWV and META announce $21B expanded Ai infrastructure agreement where agreement includes initial deployments of NVDA Vera Rubin platform. Cantor initiated NBIS Overweight and $129 PT, SHAZ Overweight and $40 PT, DLR Overweight and $211 PT, EQIX Overweight and $1,173 PT and WYFI initiated at Neutral in Ai infrastructure sector, while downgraded BTDR to Neutral from Overweight and make several PT changes in space. ChatGPT-maker OpenAI is pausing its main data centre project in Britain over an unfavorable regulatory environment and high energy costs
• Optical space remained strong, with more upward momentum for LITE, AAOI, COHR, CIEN among others as the group is seen as a key beneficiary of accelerating Ai infrastructure demand, with growth tailwinds from 800G/1.6T adoption and CPO/OCS for scale up for LITE. Bank America recently noted that Ai Optics TAM could quadruple to $73B by CY30E.
• In Cybersecurity: group weaker again; ZS was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG saying that independent field checks conducted with five contacts on Zscaler over the last week and the data points have changed significantly relative to work just a few months ago. Feedback on the next 6 - 12 months skewed cautious across most contacts. The commentary weighed on broader security stocks today (OKTA, CRWD, PANW, etc.)
• In Software: more broad weakness for the group on AI impact fears with notable declines early in ADBE, SAP, NOW, HUBS, TEAM, MNDY, TWLO; Earlier this week, Anthropic launched a new cybersecurity project, weighing on the software industry. Anthropic said it would only allow a group of around 40 companies, including Microsoft and Google, access to its "Claude Mythos" model because it has already found thousands of vulnerabilities, including some in every major operating system and web browser. Guggenheim with two changes as they upgraded DDOG to Buy from Neutral with a $175 price target, representing 50% potential upside saying channel checks indicate Datadog is a primary beneficiary of AI-driven growth in data volumes and IT complexity, while the firm downgraded GTLB to Neutral from Buy citing the company's more pronounced AI risk and lack of near-term catalysts for the downgrade.
• In Media: the WSJ reported the Department of Justice has opened an investigation into whether the National Football League has engaged in anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers, according to people familiar with the situation. The Sports Broadcasting Act grants the league limited antitrust protection to allow the teams to collectively negotiate packages of TV rights. Media companies, regulators and members of Congress have raised concerns in recent months over how difficult it is for consumers to be able to watch their favorite sports games as a result of rights deals in which leagues offer smaller packages of games to streamers.

• MRVL was upgraded to Overweight at Barclays and raised tgt to $150 from $105 saying Marvell is first and foremost an optical company and with ports growing rapidly the market growth carries the name alone.
• SNDK PT raised from $1,000 to $1,250, maintains Outperform at Bernstein with Blue-sky scenario at $3000; With the backdrop of accelerating NAND price hikes and worries around TurboQuant and peak earnings, where to from here? SNDK reports FQ3'26 on April 30^th. (memory stocks MU, WDC, SNDK continue to lead).
• TXN was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel and raised tgt to $250 from $215 saying following a six-year investment cycle that constrained profitability and returns, Texas Instruments is well positioned to capture market share in the next analog upcycle and return to strong free cash flow generation.

Street Recommendations

Friday, April 10, 2026

• IT Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Gartner to $150 from $180 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says that even if the Q1 reports in the information services sector "show resiliency, this is unlikely to cut through the AI narrative and mark a turning point for the sector." Investor focus will remain on the outlooks, given the added geopolitical noise not reflected in the initial guides, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TRI Barclays analyst Manav Patnaik lowered the firm's price target on Thomson Reuters to $170 from $210 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that even if the Q1 reports in the information services sector "show resiliency, this is unlikely to cut through the AI narrative and mark a turning point for the sector." Investor focus will remain on the outlooks, given the added geopolitical noise not reflected in the initial guides, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RCL Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Royal Caribbean to $351 from $361 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the cruise lines group as part of a Q1 preview. The Middle East conflict is "starting to leave its mark, while any rotation into the Caribbean isn't helping (yet)," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays cut estimates in the sector on higher fuel prices and trimmed yields for Q2 and Q3 as well. The favorable longer-term industry backdrop remains intact, and now includes "an underappreciated AI opportunity," contends the firm.

• IVZ BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Invesco to $28 from $32 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Asset Managers. The firm's negative EPS revisions across the group primarily reflects the broad market headwinds that emerged more meaningfully in March, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For Invesco, BMO further cites durability of the QQQ growth and the ongoing de-leveraging of the balance sheet.
• TROW BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on T. Rowe Price to $98 from $104 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Asset Managers. The firm's negative EPS revisions across the group primarily reflects the broad market headwinds that emerged more meaningfully in March, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ELF BofA lowered the firm's price target on Elf Beauty (ELF) to $93 from $115 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock price has declined 16% year-to-date, which the firm partially attributes to the conflict in the Middle East, though it views this as "perception-based rather than real impact" given Elf's immaterial revenue exposure in the region compared to beauty peers. Elsewhere, the firm has seen softness at Ulta (ULTA) impacting sales trends due to delayed shelf space resets from winter weather impacts, the analyst tells investors.
• PG BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm's price target on Procter & Gamble to $167 from $171 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm maintains its Q3 EPS forecast at $1.55, but lowers its FY26 and FY27 estimates to reflect an increased resin cost view, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• CL BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm's price target on Colgate-Palmolive to $102 from $105 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of Q1 earnings, the firm updated estimates for organic sales and FY26 EPS to reflect several items, including

• TYL BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Tyler Technologies to $420 from $470 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares and notes that the firm is incrementally more constructive on the company's positioning and AI opportunity following its user conference.

• PLNT Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Planet Fitness to $122 from $128 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of Q4 results after conducting its sixth proprietary survey of various locations which showed membership trends were solid, driven by long-standing and new amenities.
• SPIR Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Spire Global to $22 from $14 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the anouncement that it completed a $70M private placement offering selling 5M shares at $14 per share. The company remains in a strong position from a balance sheet perspective.
• BB Canaccord analyst Kingsley Crane lowered the firm's price target on BlackBerry to $4.40 from $4.60 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm sid they reported a solid Q4 beating on all metrics including returning $25M cash to shareholders by repurchasing 6.7M shares during the quarter.

• DOCU Citi downgraded DocuSign to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $50, down from $99. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades. The rating changes reflects Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• NICE Citi analyst Tyler Radke downgraded Nice to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $119, down from $184. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades. The rating changes reflects Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• SMWB Citi downgraded Similarweb to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $3, down from $8.50. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades. The rating changes reflects Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• VEEV Citi downgraded Veeva to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $176, down from $291. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades. The rating changes reflects Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• HUBS Citi analyst Tyler Radke lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $368 from $640 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades and price target cuts. These reflect Citi's view to underweight software, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months.
• NXST Citi last night upgraded Nexstar to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $220, down from $252. The firm believes the Street has become too bearish on the Tegna acquisition. It sees $8 per share of potential downside and $73 of potential upside, creating a 9:1 risk-reward for Nexstar. The price target assumes Nexstar sells stations covering 25M homes from divestitures for the Tegna deal, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• STZ Citi raised the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $185 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees a favorable setup for the shares after the company returned to beer depletions growth in fiscal Q4. It cites increased confidence in Constellation's sales and earnings upside for the target boost.

• DK Goldman Sachs upgraded Delek US to Buy from Neutral with a $55 price target after assuming coverage of the name. The firm sees the company's cost reduction efforts, small refinery exemptions, improved marketing and wholesale strategy, and growing logistics earnings driving stronger free cash flow generation. Delek's small refinery exemptions and benefits from its self-help initiatives are underappreciated by the market, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PBF Goldman Sachs assumed coverage of PBF Energy with a Neutral rating and price target of $49, up from $41. The firm is positive on the company's exposure to tightening West Coast dynamics, but awaits the re-start of Martinez, which composes 50% of PBF's footprint in the region.
• CVI Goldman Sachs analyst Alexa Petrick assumed coverage of CVR Energy with a Sell rating and $30 price target. The firm believes the company's capital allocation priorities will remain focused on debt paydown and potential inorganic growth. This suggests a dividend reinstatement is a "longer-dated event," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• WMB Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith raised the firm's price target on Williams to $83 from $81 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of Q1 results, investor focus has shifted from the long-term compound annual growth rate to proof of Power Innovation execution, the analyst contends in a preview. While the market awaits clearer backlog conversion, the firm says its continued confidence in the PI opportunity makes the risk/reward "compelling," the analyst added.

• NTNX JPMorgan downgraded Nutanix to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $44, down from $55. The company's investor day brought a detailed long-term outlook but with limited near-term visibility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says the choice of fiscal 2029 for medium-term targets served to highlight Nutanix's limited visibility near-term in a choppy macro backdrop. The firm now thinks improvement in the company's fundamentals will take more time.
• DE JPMorgan analyst Tami Zakaria raised the firm's price target on Deere to $550 from $525 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the machinery and waste services space as part of a Q1 preview. Class 8 truck orders data year-to-date suggests upside potential for back half of 2026 estimates across the truck group while the outlook for global construction equipment remains positive, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes the agriculture end markets "remain choppy" with Brazil biased to the downside, North America retail sales modestly deteriorating in recent months, and Europe improving.

• STZ Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $160 from $146 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm considers 2027 guidance achievable and likely beatable if early 2027 momentum continues. World Cup could add a sales lift, though it is a one-time event without any apparent lasting momentum boost, and Piper would not be buying the stock on excitement over it. Constellation has a benefit from tariff relief in 2027, but this is offset by higher costs from Veracruz starting up mid-year, adds the firm.

• MIST Raymond James last night initiated coverage of Milestone Pharmaceuticals with a Strong Buy rating and $6 price target. At current share levels, the market is only assigning less than $100M in peak sales for Cardamyst in paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says this equates to just a 2% penetration into the 2M patient population. Raymond James believes Cardamyst "has all the fundamentals for a successful launch."
• PTCT Raymond James analyst Tiago Fauth last night initiated coverage of PTC Therapeutics with an Outperform rating and $108 price target. PTC is commercializing Sephience, the first and only phenylketonuria therapy to combine oral dosing with "robust" phenylalanine control and diet flexibility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the drug offers key advantages over legacy standard-of-care therapies. Sephience creates a "compelling long-term risk/reward skew" for PTC shares, contends Raymond James.
• PRAX Raymond James last night initiated coverage of Praxis Precision with a Strong Buy rating and $815 price target. The firm says the bear thesis on the name "is a conclusion in search of facts." Ulixacaltamide's potential FDA approval in early 2027 is the key catalyst for the stock over the next 12 months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. penalty. At Praxis' current valuation, Raymond James believes investors are "materially underpricing" ulixacaltamide's probability of approval.
• UTHR Raymond James last night initiated coverage of United Therapeutics with an Outperform rating and $700 price target. The firm believes $5B in peak sales is achievable for Tyvaso in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Tyvaso's clinical benefit on top of either standard of care agent "makes it a straightforward add-on agent," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James believes the trajectory of Tyvaso's base business "is stabilization, not erosion."

• SITE UBS assumed coverage of SiteOne Landscape with a Neutral rating and $140 price target, offering 4% upside. The firm sees the company's demand remaining under pressure in the first half of 2026 due to the effect of lagged housing starts while the broader residential end market trends remain challenged. In addition, several of SiteOne's input costs have risen sharply in recent weeks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes the shares will be range-bound for now.
• AXSM UBS raised the firm's price target on Axsome Therapeutics to $259 from $251 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the April 30 FDA action date for Auvelity's Alzheimer's disease agitation filing. UBS has "high conviction" in Auvelity's approvability and believes the new indication could add $2bn in incremental sales. The firm believes the decision could come earlier than April 30 and expects a "clean label."
• BROS UBS continues to view Dutch Bros shares as attractive given its expectation for ongoing sales momentum in 2026. The momentum will be driven by Dutch's strategic initiatives and "robust" development pipeline supported by solid new store productivity and returns, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes concerns around increased competition from energy beverage launches from McDonald's and Starbucks, as well as potential geopolitical conflict impacts, are overblown. The overhang on Dutch shares could be lifted if the company's sales momentum continues through the competitor launches, the firm contends. It keeps a Buy rating on the stock with an $85 price target.

• SHW Wells Fargo last night downgraded Sherwin-Williams (SHW) to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $365, down from $410. The firm believes the company's volume pressure will be more pronounced relative to RPM (RPM) and PPG Industries (PPG). The war in Iran has led to "broad-based" inflation across most commodity chains, flowing down to coatings raw materials, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells says that in addition to margin pressure from the higher costs, sales results for coatings names will be pressured by a tougher macro backdrop as affordability remains challenging. It cut estimates for Sherwin-Williams to reflect a more challenging outlook for U.S. housing and some pressure from higher raw material costs.
• PPG Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on PPG to $130 from $135 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The war in Iran has led to "broad-based" inflation across most commodity chains, flowing down to coatings raw materials, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells says that in addition to margin pressure from the higher costs, sales results for coatings names will be pressured by a tougher macro backdrop as affordability remains challenging.
• STZ Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey raised the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $185 from $180 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's Q4 was encouraging, with depletions turning positive, helping underwrite the acceleration story into summer. Wells sees Constellation's guidance as conservative and valuation low, one of the cleaner positive catalyst paths into summer in Staples.
• MGY Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Magnolia Oil & Gas to $32 from $25 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm expects steady Q1 execution, with mixed financial results driven primarily by weaker-than-expected gas price realizations. Key focus areas include commodity price realization dynamics, hedging, and service cost trends, Wells adds.
• CE Wells Fargo analyst Michael Sison raised the firm's price target on Celanese to $75 from $70 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Despite the fact that the Engineered Materials end markets remain challenged, the firm thinks Celanese is well positioned to benefit from tighter global acetic acid and methanol supply dynamics, while remaining relatively insulated from issues impacting China and the Middle East.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: A LOT FBK

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for March
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for March
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: EQBK MAMA SURG

• Jefferies Private Growth Conference 4/14

• 8:30 AM ET NY Empire Fed Manufacturing for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for March
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for March
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for April
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC Flows for February

• Earnings After the Close: GSBC HOMB JBHT MIND NKLR SLG

• China Retail Sales, industrial Output for March
• China Q2 GDP

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for April
• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for March
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization for March
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AA FNB INDB LAKE NFLX SFNC

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