Early Look
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Futures | Up/Down | % | Last |
Dow | -811.00 | 1.66% | 48,134 |
S&P 500 | -113.75 | 1.65% | 6,774 |
Nasdaq | -533.50 | 2.13% | 24,492 |
The “buy the dip” on war headlines may have boosted U.S. stocks on Monday to push major averages into positive territory, but a sharp decline overnight in tech stocks following weakness in Asian markets has U.S. futures giving back all of yesterday’s rally and dropping below the prior day Spuz futures lows. South Korea’s main KOSPI stock index fell over -12%, triggering a circuit breaker in its worst single day drop since the 2024 yen carry crisis, with sharp declines in chip companies like Samsung and SK Hynix (KOSPI closed at 5,791.91, down 7.24%). Financials remain under pressure given the recent spike in Treasury yields (also likely to weigh on homebuilders), especially in private credit markets after Blackstone (BX) said in a filing that investors in the $82B Blackstone Private Credit Fund (BCRED), who usually have a chance to ask to withdraw 5% of their holdings every quarter, requested a total of 7.9% in the first quarter. Oil prices are also surging with WTI crude +5.30 or 7.44% at $76.53 per Barrel on Middle East concerns and Brent crude tops $84 per barrel for the first time since July 2024 raising inflation fears. Oil added to Monday’s gains after reports Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and warned that any vessel attempting to pass would be attacked. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -1,778 points or over 3% to settle at 56,279, the Shanghai Index fell -59 points to 4,122, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -291 points to 25,768. In Europe, markets looking just as ugly as the German DAX is tumbling -934 points or 3.79% to 23,703, while the FTSE 100 falls -282 points or 2.6% to 10,496. No place to hide as precious metals are also seeing sharp pullbacks with gold down about -1% and silver prices extending Monday’s decline tumbling another -7.6% at $81.56 an ounce (off highs above $95 just one night ago) following a sharp spike in the US Dollar (DXY) +0.9% at 99.30 and Treasury yields spiking as the 10-yr rises about 7bps to 4.11% (just 2 days after falling below 4%) and the 2-yr yield rising 8.5bps to 3.57% as inflation fears pared interest rate cut bets. The spike in oil is again putting pressure on transport stocks with airlines, online travel, and cruise stocks looking lower. Meanwhile, energy stocks and defense companies are leading higher on the Iran headlines.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
Economic Calendar for Today
Earnings Calendar:
Other Key Events:
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
Nymex | 5.29 | 76.52 |
Brent | 5.77 | 83.51 |
Gold | -48.00 | 5,263.60 |
EUR/USD | -0.0096 | 1.1589 |
JPY/USD | 0.48 | 157.82 |
10-Year Note | +0.068 | 4.11% |
World News
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
Energy,
Financials
Healthcare
Industrials and Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Mid-Morning Look
Tuesday, March 03, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -1,217 | 2.49% | 47,687 |
S&P 500 | -163.96 | 2.38% | 6,717 |
Nasdaq | -581.78 | 2.56% | 22,167 |
Russell 2000 | -97.54 | 3.67% | 2,558 |
U.S. stocks are under significant pressure just a day after Wall Street snapped up the “war trade” decline following attacks by the U.S. and Israel against Iran this weekend. Market concerns renewed overnight with a confluence of factors weighing on investors minds. Tech stocks had recently seen stock market concerns over the impact of AI on their businesses (software particularly) as well as private credit markets amid their exposure to software names/lending. Those trades continue to have negative sentiment on investors, but now add a massive repricing of inflation in energy markets with oil/natural gas exploding higher the last two days as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped. US natural gas futures leap 6% as Middle East conflict disrupts global supplies. Oil prices surge nearly 10% to $77.98 a barrel at its beat, the highest since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June. The rising inflation fears has also cast concerns of less interest rate cuts this year from the Fed. Financials remain a place of concern for investors, particularly in private credit as Blackstone’s (BX) main $82B private credit fund (BCRED) was hit with a flood of withdrawal requests in the first quarter (requests for total of 7.9% vs, usual max of 5% each quarter), and the firm is taking steps to meet them, including Blackstone and its employees investing some $400M into the fund, known as BCRED (handled different then OWL did a few weeks ago when they initially halted the withdrawals before back tracking). The memory sector, which has been one of the top sectors for more than a year (SNDK, MU, WDC) saw massive selling pressure as following a massive decline in South Korea as the Kospi Index tumbled 7.2% today, its worst day in a year and a half (after falling as much as 12%) where shares of memory chip giants Sk Hynix and Samsung Electronics tumbled almost 12% and 10%, respectively. No sector safe today as all eleven S&P sectors are down at least 1% on the day with Materials, Industrials, Technology, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary down the most all 2% or more as commodities reflect fears of severe supply chain disruptions for the energy complex, and a much stronger dollar. Asia and Europe were also down big overnight. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) rises as much as +30% hitting high of 28.01 so far as stocks continue to slide. No bounce seen thus far with emerging markets down broadly as well.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 6.20 | 77.43 |
Brent | 5.98 | 83.74 |
Gold | -260.40 | 5,1050.50 |
EUR/USD | -0.0137 | 1.1550 |
JPY/USD | 0.47 | 157.81 |
10-Year Note | 0.031 | 4.079% |
Sector Movers Today
Stock GAINERS
Stock LAGGARDS
Stock offerings:
Closing Recap
Tuesday, March 03, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -403.51 | 0.83% | 48,501 |
S&P 500 | -64.99 | 0.94% | 6,716 |
Nasdaq | -232.17 | 1.02% | 22,516 |
Russell 2000 | -47.59 | 1.79% | 2,608 |
After a dreadful overnight futures session (Spuz was down -1.5% and Nasdaq fell as much as -2%) and big declines in Asia and Europe on inflation fears following a second sharp day of oil price hikes, investors once again stayed calm and bought the dip as markets found their footing late morning and pared losses. Today’s market action was eerily similar to yesterday, with markets opening down across the board, made new lows slightly after the open before rebounding late morning as investors continue to take advantage of any market dip. Wall Street shook off signs of a possible prolonged Middel East conflict, surging oil prices (raising inflation fears), reduced bets of interest rate cuts by the Fed due to energy prices, and a surging US dollar and Treasury yields. By early morning NYSE breadth was more than 9:1 decliners leading advancers and all eleven S&P sectors were down at least 1%, with the biggest drops in materials, industrials, and technology. Dip after dip continues to get bought as major averages hold key levels (for instance, the S&P 500 index low of 6710.42 today came just 10 points below the 12-17-25 low of 6720.43 - now over 100 points off those levels). Stocks ended lower across the board heading into some jobs data later this week.
Amid the rising inflation fears due to the recent surge in oil, gasoline, natural gas, interest rate cut bets by the Fed have dropped. Markets are rapidly repricing as rising energy costs push inflation expectations higher and rate cut bets lower.
Latest data from Kalshi shows: 1 cut: ~25%, 2 cuts: ~24%, and 3 cuts: ~19% and falling. At the same time: 5-year inflation expectations rose to 2.54% and odds of 2+ Fed cuts fell to 57% (from 79%). Note Treasury yields, after having tumbled over the last few weeks, are back on the rise with the 2-yr above 3.57% (off lows around 3.375 last week, lowest since Aug 2022) and the 10-yr yield back to 4.11% (after dropping below 4% just last week for first time since November).
Overall, stock markets finished the day lower, but significantly off its worst levels overcoming a confluence of negative factors weighing on investors’ minds such as: tech/AI impact on software, financials, credit exposure for PE, reduced interest rate cut expectations, a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, a crypto market that can’t gain traction to the upside, surging oil/inflation fears and concern of a prolonged war with Iran that could impact not just energy prices, but chemicals, agriculture prices which are all intertwined. Financials remain a place of concern for investors, particularly in private credit as Blackstone’s (BX) main $82B private credit fund (BCRED) was hit with a flood of withdrawal requests in the first quarter (requests for total of 7.9% vs, usual max of 5% each quarter), and the firm is taking steps to meet them, including Blackstone and its employees investing some $400M into the fund, known as BCRED (handled different then OWL did a few weeks ago when they initially halted the withdrawals before back tracking).
There were big declines in Europe and Asia overnight as Europe's Stoxx 600 was down -3.18%, Britain's FTSE 100 down -3.04%; Germany's DAX down -3.59%, France's CAC 40 down -3.5%; Spain's Ibex down -4.42%, and Euro Stoxx index down -3.57%. In Asia overnight, The Nikkei Index tumbled -1,778 points or over 3% to settle at 56,279, the Shanghai Index fell -59 points to 4,122, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -291 points to 25,768. In South Korea, the KOSPI stock index fell over -12%, its worst single day drop since the 2024 yen carry crisis, before closing at 5,791.91, down 7.24%).
Commodities
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 3.33 | 74.56 |
Brent | 5.98 | 81.40 |
Gold | -187.90 | 5,123.70 |
EUR/USD | -0.0073 | 1.1615 |
JPY/USD | 0.31 | 157.65 |
10-Year Note | 0.008 | 4.056% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
Energy, Industrials and Defense
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
Biotech & Pharma:
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
Materials, Metals & Mining
Internet, Media & Telecom
Hardware & Software movers:
Not offered or endorsed by Regal Securities
Street Recommendations
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
BARCLAYS
BERNSTEIN
BOFA
CANACCORD
CITI
GOLDMAN SACHS
JPMORGAN
KEEFE BRUYETTE
KEYBANC
MIZUHO
MORGAN STANLEY
NEEDHAM
NORTHLAND
OPPENHEIMER
PIPER SANDLER
RBC CAPITAL
ROSENBLATT
STIFEL
UBS
WELLS FARGO
Rating abbreviations…
***OP = Outperform
***SP = Sector Perform
***UP = Underperform
***OW = Overweight
***EW = Equal-weight
***UW = Underweight
***Report powered by thefly.com***
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