Closing Recap
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | 17.36 | 0.04% | 49,499 |
S&P 500 | -37.24 | 0.54% | 6,908 |
Nasdaq | -273.69 | 1.18% | 22,878 |
Russell 2000 | 13.96 | 0.52% | 2,677 |
U.S. stocks finished mixed as the Dow, Transports and Smallcaps saw gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined behind weakness in technology shares. The Nasdaq is on pace for a 6th negative week in last 7 and on track for its weakest month since March of last year (-2.85% MTD) and is now back in negative territory for the year. A big area of weakness today was technology, especially semiconductors as a strong/better Q4/guidance from NVDA last night failed to muster a rally in the shares, weighing on the sector. Semiconductors (SMH) tumbled after hitting all-time highs on Wednesday, after profit taking post. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell around -3.5% after having surged nearly 20% year-to-date (YTD), while the S&P 500 Tech (XLK) is down -0.67%, the Mag 7 group of stocks (MAGS -4% YTD) and Software (IGV) down -21% YTRD. The SOX ended Wednesday at 8,467.43, and posted record highs, and is on track to rise for an 11th straight week. The SOX rose 11 weeks in a row in November 2017. While Semis fell, Software (IGV) rallied on this second to last day of the month, in a rotation in tech (for today at least). Dow Transports outperformed, with broad strength though truckers/freight names led the gains (LSTR, JBHT, CHRW, ODFL) with Dow Transports +2.5% or around 500 points to above 19,800. Smallcaps also outperformed as the Russell 2000 stayed strong this afternoon. Financials (XLF) saw solid gains, rising over 1% in a rebound from weakness earlier this week and Energy stocks (XLE) led despite oil prices sliding late day. Next up for tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM ET, the January Producer Price Index (PPI) data is due with estimates: Headline final M/M for January est. +0.3% (prior +0.5%) and Y/Y est. +2.6% (prior +3.0%). The core PPI (ex: Food & Energy final M/M for January est. +0.3% (prior +0.7%) and Y/Y for January est. +3.0% (prior +3.3%).
Weekly sentiment data showed: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index slipped to 74.93 (first Reading in the 70s since last July) from last week's 82.87 - 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 was the highest since 7-3-24 - 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 - Last Quarter Average (Q4) of 92.26; 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -6.6% vs -2.4% last week. Bulls fall to 33.2% from 34.5%, Neutrals fall to 27% from 28.5%, Bears rise to 39.8% from 36.9%.
Economic Data
- Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 212,000 from 208,000 prior week and was below the consensus of 215,000; the 4-week moving avg climbed to 220,250 from 219,500 prior week (previous 219,000); continued claims fell to 1.833M Feb 14 week from 1.864M prior week (est. 1.858M).
- The weekly average mortgage rate has dropped to 6.01%, its lowest level since September 2022. That has pushed the median U.S. monthly housing payment down to $2,599, Redfin says. That's 2.6% lower than a year ago. With wages nearly 4% higher than a year ago, that improves affordability further. Homebuyers have gained $34,000 in purchasing power since last year, when rates were sitting around 6.9%.
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- March silver prices fell -$3.99 or 4.4% to settle at $86.99 an ounce.
- April gold prices fell -$32.00 or 0.62% to settle at $5,194.20 an ounce.
- U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $65.21/bbl, down 21 cents, or 0.32% and Brent Crude futures settle at $70.75/bbl, down 10 cents, 0.14%. Oil prices were higher most of the day before reversing this afternoon after newswire headlines that Oman notes US-Iran Nuclear talks in Geneva made positive progress and both sides showed openness to new and Creative solutions during discussions mediated by Oman’s foreign minister — statement in Geneva. Says discussions on a "technical level" will take place next week in Vienna.
- U.S. natural gas futures eased to a five-month low on a small weekly storage withdrawal and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. On their first day as the front-month, gas futures for April delivery on the NYMEX fell 4.1 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.827 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since September 22.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | -0.21 | 65.21 |
Brent | -0.10 | 70.75 |
Gold | -32.00 | 5,194.20 |
EUR/USD | -0.0014 | 1.1795 |
JPY/USD | -0.20 | 156.13 |
10-Year Note | -0.031 | 4.017% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- Apparel Retail: PUMSY cancelled its annual dividend and said it would post an annual loss in 2026; said it expects an operating loss between 50M-150M euros ($59M-$177M) in 2026; reported a loss of -357.2M euros in 2025, smaller than the -374.3M analysts were expecting. URBN Q4 adj EPS $1.43 vs $1.04 last year while revs rose 9.8% y/y to $1.8B vs. est. $1.79B driven by better sales and GM; Q4 Comparable Retail segment net sales increased 9.6% at Urban Outfitters, 5.2% at Free People and 3.7% at Anthropologie.
- In Food & Beverages: CELH posted a top and bottom line beat (revs $721.6M vs. est. $640.8M) and said it expects to complete Alani Nu integration as of end of Q1, expect Rockstar Energy to be integrated by end of Q2. SJM posted a beat on top and bottom line for Q3 while backed its year adj profit outlook and slightly revised its FY26 revenue growth view to 3.5%-4% from 3.5%-4.5% - also reached an agreement with activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management to add two executives to its Board; @Barchart tweets: "- Beer Shipments on track for worst year since the 1980s (TAP, BUD, SAM, STZ).
- In Restaurants: PZZA sees 2026 North America comp sales -2% to -4%, below consensus est. +0.49% after Q4 profit and revenue fell, hurt by a weak consumer backdrop and higher promotions across its North American business; revenue fell 6.1% to $498.2M and missed the $517.3M estimate. SHAK mixed Q4 results as EPS beat, but sales of $400.5M missed the $402M estimate. DNUT Q4 revenue beat analyst expectations despite a 2.9% decline y/y ($392.4M vs. est. $386.7M) on better earnings as adjusted EBITDA rose 21% y/y, driven by productivity initiatives; said expects systemwide sales to grow 2% to 4% in constant currency in 2026.
- Specialty Retail: WRBY Q4 revs $211.96M missed the $213.1M estimate and guides sees FY26 revenue $959M-$976M, vs. consensus $986.13M; sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $117M-$119M.
Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:
- In Autos: STLA posted a net loss of 20.1 billion euros ($23.8 billion) in 2H25, after announcing earlier this month 22.2 billion euros of charges in the period as it scaled back its EV ambitions; net revenues rose 10% y/y, said it had booked 25.4 billion euros in write-down last year; reiterated its 2026 forecasts. TM plans a large-scale unwinding of strategic holdings that would involve banks/insurance co’s selling around $19B in shares, Reuters reported
- In Casinos & Gaming: CZR shares jumped late day after a report in the Financial Times said the casino is weighing takeover interest (which also boosted shares of MGM, BYD and others) https://tinyurl.com/3vkkcck8 ; PENN shares bounced after reports Q4 adjusted profit of $0.07 compared with a (-$0.44) adjusted loss a year earlier and revs of $1.8B topped consensus of $1.76B as attributes earnings to strong performance across diversified retail portfolio. BYD announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell Sam's Town Hotel & Casino in Shreveport, Louisiana, to BALY
- In Lodging & Travel: VAC reported Q425 adjusted EPS of $1.86, $0.28 above the Street and Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $186M, above consensus at $178.2M, while raised 2026 guidance.
Energy
- In Solar sector: ARRY shares tumble on guidance; Q4 adj EBITDA $11.2Mm missed the est $14.1Mm but better revs $226Mm vs est $212.02Mm; but guides FY revs $1.4-1.5B vs est $1.457B, adj EBITDA $200-230Mm vs est $248.91Mm and adj EPS $0.65-0.75 vs est $0.86 (follows weaker guidance from FSLR earlier this week). Posted mixed Q4 results, as strong bookings and a record $2.2B orderbook were insufficient to ease investor concerns around margin pressure, a back-half-loaded 2026 guide, and softer near-term earnings power. Deutsche bank downgraded ARRY and FSLR after results this week in the sector).
- In Energy: APA reported a fall in Q4 profit with $279M net Income vs. $354M Y/y; said the average price of oil was $61.03 per Barrel during the fourth quarter, compared with $72.42 per Barrel a year earlier; said it produced 459,767 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which fell from 488,308 boepd a year earlier; EOSE shares tumbled as FY revs were $114.2M but well below the consensus estimate $150.1M and issued sharply lower guidance as sees 2026 revenue $300M-$400M, below consensus $471.26M
- In Utilities: VST Q4 results topped expectations as an AI-driven surge in electricity demand from data centers fueled earnings and said expects 2026 adjusted core profit between $6.8B-$7.6B, up from its 2025 forecast range of $5.7B-45.9B; PEG said it now expects to spend $24B-$28B through 2030, including $22.5B-$25.5B of regulated investments (prior five-year plan included capital spending of $22.5 billion to $26 billion through 2029). @dailychartbook tweeted on X, “The national average of residential electricity prices rose 5.0% in 2025, reaching 17.3 cents/kWh. This was the fourth straight year of power prices escalating at a faster pace than the overall CPI"
- In Refiners: The Trump administration has settled on a plan that would require big oil refineries to make up for at least half of the biofuel blending volumes obligations waived in recent years under the Small Refinery Exemption program, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. The decision could be unwelcome news for larger oil refiners that have argued that additional blending obligations would raise their costs. But it could help the biofuel industry by boosting demand for blending credits. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refineries have to blend billions of gallons of ethanol and other biofuels into their fuel or buy credits, called RINs, from those that do. But small refineries can have those obligations waived if they demonstrate economic hardship.
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
- In Private Equity/Alt Managers: CG has approved a new $2B share repurchase authorization, targets inflows of $200+ bln by 2028 and targets de per share of $6.00+ by 2028
- In Asset Managers: VCTR sent another letter to the Special Committee of JHG Board in proposal to acquire Janus Henderson. Under the terms of this proposal, JHG shareholders would receive total consideration of $57.04 per share, consisting of $30.00 in cash and a fixed exchange ratio of 0.350 shares of VCTR common stock.
- In FinTech: SEZL shares jump on beat/raise as Q4 adj EPS $1.21 tops consensus $0.96 and revs $129.87M vs. est. $127.58M; raises FY26 EPS view to $4.70 from $4.35, and vs. consensus $4.33 while guides FY26 revenue up 25%-30%; said Q4 GMV reached new quarter high $1.2B. FOUR shares the opposite, falling on mixed Q4 results and weaker guidance as sees FY26 EPS $5.50-$5.70, below consensus $6.45.
- In Insurance: RNR was downgraded to EW from OW at Morgan Stanley saying given the strong share price performance over the last 12 months (up ~32%), believes the valuation reflects much of the upside from here.
- In Payments: CHYM shares rallied on Q4 beat and better guide; Q4 EPS ($0.12) vs est ($0.15), adj EBITDA $57Mm vs est $45.66Mm on revs $596.358Mm vs est $577.68Mm; guides FY revs $2.63-2.67B vs est $2.61B; PYPL shares fell after Semafor reported they aren’t currently in talks to sell itself to Stripe or anyone else https://tinyurl.com/3hrw9knd
REITs:
- EPR reported 4Q25 FFOAA in line with cons. ($1.30) and management introduced FY26 FFOAA guidance at $5.28-$5.48 (+5.1% y/y), which was ahead of cons. ($5.31) and driven by FY26 investment guidance of $400M-$500M. FY25 NABOG ended at $8.7B (+1% y/y); however, EPR will no longer provide annual box office estimates
- GNL reported 4Q25 AFFO that beat cons. (+$0.02) and introduced its FY26 AFFO guidance of $0.80-$0.84, below cons. of $0.83. During 4Q25, GNL sold its McLaren Campus for $336M at a cap rate of 7.4%, which made up a bulk of its dispositions in 4Q25,
- INN initial ’26 Adj. EBITDA and Adj. FFO guidance were ~1% below consensus. Initial RevPAR growth guidance of +1.5% y/y was essentially in line with our assumption and appears to include some benefit from World Cup demand, easier y/y comps, and tailwinds from last year’s renovation disruption, and outperformance in 4Q25 may have led to improving visibility
- NSA reported a high-quality 4Q beat, and initial FY26 guidance came in ~0.5% above consensus at the midpoint. Fundamentals continued to improve as previously disclosed, with occupancy gains driving a 200 bps sequential improvement in SSREV growth, while SSNOI growth accelerated 500 bps vs. 3Q
- SMA reported in-line 4Q FFO, though initial FY26 guidance came in 3.4% below consensus at the midpoint. Notably, expectations have reset lower since 3Q
- VICI reported 4Q25 AFFO of $0.60, in line with consensus, and management issued initial FY26 guidance of $2.42-$2.45, ~0.6% below consensus at the midpoint
Biotech & Pharma:
- NVAX rises after posted quarterly profit of $18M vs loss of -$81M y/y; guided adj revenue of $230M-$270M above prior $185M-$205M saying the forecast excludes sales and royalties from partnership with Sanofi; posted Q4 revs $147M above the $79M estimate.
- QURE shares fell this morning on comments made by FDA Commissioner Marty Makary to CNBC's Becky Quick in a discussion about rare-disease drug approvals.
- SRPT announced FY25 revenues for Elevidys of $898.7M and PMO of 965.6M, in-line with preannouncement; provided FY26 product revenue guidance of $1.2-1.4B and noted they expect modest decline in PMO revenue in 2026; noted they expect Q1 to be flat to down 15% q/q.
- VIR 17.65M share Secondary priced at $8.50.
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- Medical devices: PRCT shares tumbled as Q4 missed Street estimates by 18.5% as PRCT is changing its historical practice of customer discounts for Bulk purchases along with reorganizing the sales force; sees FY26 revenue $390M-$410M, below consensus $421.74M and sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $30M-$37M. MMSI was downgraded to EW at Wells Fargo due to uncertainty regarding FY26 guidance, particularly the Q2-Q4 ramp.
- Medical technology: INSP shares surged after Keybanc noted in today's MLN Connects Newsletter, CMS acknowledged recent confusion around HGNS reimbursement and announced the addition of six new HCPCS codes for the April 2026 Integrated Outpatient Code Editor (IOCE), effective Jan. 1, 2026. While still early, the firm is viewing this development as directionally positive, given it could expedite the pathway for gaining clarity into permanent and product-specific payment approaches.
- Healthcare Services: GDRX Q4 revs of $194.8M topped consensus but first time 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance fell substantially below the Street; initiated 2026 revenue guidance of $750-$780MM (midpoint: $765MM), with the midpoint of the range below consensus estimates of $814.4MM
- Life Sciences: Agilent's (A) Q1 results came in below consensus as it cited U.S. winter storm effects the last week of the January, but EPS guidance and the upper end of revenue were raised for FY26; highlights 6% Y/y growth in China biopharma strong, environment/food weak) and 7% organic growth for global Biopharma.
- Hospital operators: UHS 4Q results look somewhat mixed relative to Street expectations, highlighted by a slight EBITDA miss despite higher Medicaid SDPs. SS Acute volumes moderated sequentially, but we suspect this includes some drag from flu and cannibalization from new Hospitals; 2026 guidance is above Street
Industrials & Materials
- Industrials: HEI reported F1Q26 EPS of $1.20 (ex. discrete tax benefit of ~$0.15) vs. the Street’s $1.28. EBITDA of $312M came in modestly below estimate the Street's $316M, while FCF of $165M.
- In Building Products: BLD Q4 PS missed estimates with in-line res of $1.49B; Q4 sales growth of 13.2% was largely driven by acquisitions, including SPI and Progressive Roofing; expects 2026 sales between $5.925B-$6.2B vs. est. $6.16B; IBP Q4 revenue slightly beat analyst expectations and adjusted EPS for Q4 beat analyst expectations while authorized $500 mln stock repurchase program.
- In Shipping (SBLK, SHIP, GNK, DSX, GOGL): The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index fell for a second straight session, down four points, or 0.2%, at 2,117 as the Capesize index dropped 77 points, or 2.5%, to 3,051, the Panamax index gained 26 points, or 1.4%, to 1,916 and among smaller vessels, the Supramax index was up 44 points, or 3.5%, at 1,299.
- In Aerospace/Drones: JOBY mixed results as Q4 operating loss was $207M, worse than the -148M loss expected but posted Q4 revs of $30.8M, well above the $13.7M estimate; said still expects to fly its first passengers in 2026 and double its plane production capacity in 2027.
- Rare Earth stocks: group lower despite Reuters report that aerospace and semiconductor firms are facing shortages of yttrium and scandium. Those are two of the seven heavy rare earth minerals that China restricted the export of last April. Reuters reported that two aerospace suppliers temporarily paused production as suppliers ration yttrium. Meanwhile, semiconductor firms are running low on scandium. The report said that engine suppliers are struggling to meet demand due to China's export restrictions. GE Aerospace, RTX's Pratt & Whitney and Honeywell didn't comment for the article.
Technology
- NVDA quarterly results and guidance solid as Q4 adj EPS $1.62 tops consensus $1.53 as revs rose to $68.13B above the $66.21B estimate as Data Centre revs $62.3B vs est. $60.69B; guidance strong as sees Q1 revs $78B (+ or minus 2%) vs $72.6V consensus. Upside driven by DC, which grew +75% Y/y, with strength seen in Networking (+263% Y/y), as GB racks accounted for 2/3 of DC revs; there were no China revs in the quarter/guide, 3) q/q rev growth is expected through F27 given $500B+ of backlog; 4) Vera Rubin remains on track for 2H26 production.
- The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) has surged nearly 20% year-to-date (YTD), while the S&P 500 Tech (XLK) is down -0.67%, the Mag 7 group of stocks (MAGS -4% YTD) and Software (IGV) down -21% YTRD. The SOX ended Wednesday at 8,467.43, and posted record highs, and is on track to rise for an 11th straight week. The SOX rose 11 weeks in a row in November 2017.
- Qnity (Q) results topped estimates; forecast full-year revenue in the range of $4.97B to $5.17B, the mid-point of which is marginally above analysts' estimates of $5.06B; On an adjusted basis, the company sees full-year profit per share in the range of $3.55 to $3.95, compared with analysts' estimates of $3.14.
- In Ad Tech: TTD results disappointed as 4Q revs beat smaller than typical, and 1Q rev guided to 10% y/y, below Street's 12%, with mgmt citing headwinds in the CPG and Auto verticals. While FY EBITDA margins guided to be flat y/y, Q1 margin guided to ~500 bps y/y decline.
- In Media: Shares of PSKY jumped on results and predicted strong growth at its streaming unit this year, while WBD reported poor results, EBITDA down 27%, revenue down 12%"
Hardware & Software movers:
- The global smartphone market is poised to suffer its biggest decline ever in 2026, sinking to a more than decade low in shipments, as surging memory chip prices drive up device costs, the International Data Corporation (IDC) said. Smartphone shipments are expected to drop 12.9% to 1.12B units, the research firm said in a report. The decline will hit low-end Android manufacturers the hardest, while Apple and Samsung are positioned to gain market share. The average selling price of smartphones is projected to surge 14% to a record $523 this year, as manufacturers shift toward higher-margin models to offset ballooning costs. IDC expects a modest 2% recovery in 2027 as the crisis eases, followed by a 5.2% rebound in 2028.
- Software: CRM shares bounced on earnings (after sliding initially last night) after reported Q4 adj EPS $3.81 vs $3.04b consensus, revs $11.2B in-line and announced a $50B new share buybacks; sees Q1 EPS $3.11-313 vs $3.00 consensus on revs $11.03-11.08B vs $10.99B consensus. Initially, Positive Agentforce and Data 360 momentum and disclosures (both existing and new) were overshadowed by weaker core performance. SNOW posted solid FQ4 with a 2.4% product revenue beat vs. guidance was modest, though bookings were strong up 50% Y/y and the FY27 organic guide ~$70M above consensus also strong/bookings were driven by seven 9-figure deals, including a >$400M deal with an existing financial services customer. The bounce off overnight lows in both names mirrored the move in WDAY the day prior with many hoping a bottom may be in place after AI fears sunk the IGV 20% this year so far – DDOG, HUBS, MDG, TEAM, NOW, MNDY among names rebounding.
- In Storage: NTNX shares jumped initially after Q2 results were better than expected, revs was ~2pts above consensus with OI margins 500 bps above consensus; also announced AMD strategic investment new join Ai initiative, which helped shares; PSTG shares tumbled as above consensus FY27 revenue guide and strong deal momentum was overshadowed by component cost driven Product GM% pressure.
- Quantum sector: IONQ shares jumped on results as Q4 revs of $61.89M handily topped the consensus of $40.4M while posts net income of $753.2M vs. est. loss of (-$122.6), prompting several Wall Street analysts to raise their tgt; QBTS reported Q4 revs $2.75M missing the $3.49M estimate but cut back on its losses in the quarter to -$42.3M from the -$144M loss y/y; posted Q4 bookings $13.4M, a 471% sequential increase.
- EDA Sector: SNPS posted strong Q1 revenue of $2.41B (high end of guidance) and adj-EPS of $3.77, which exceeded guidance and consensus estimates of $3.55 (midpoint) and $3.56, respectively amid seasonal strength of the ANSS integration, which contributed ~$886M in revenue while raised its full-year adj-EPS guidance to $14.38-$14.46 (previous midpoint $14.36) while reiterating revenue targets of $9.56B-$9.66B.
- Other Software: AI shares tumbled after much lower guidance as sees Q4 revenue $48M-$52M vs. est. $77.7M and year revs $246.7M-$250.7M vs. est. $298.7M after reporting Q3 revs 46% Y/y to $53.26M; also cuts 26% of global workforce; to incur about $10M-$12M pre-tax charges in Q4. ZM shares fell as FY'27 FCF miss + '27 EPS below the Street, top liner better, pricing tailwinds, long lean + big YTD o/p in Apps Software