Early Look

Friday, February 13, 2026

After ending near the lows of the day driven by a late day sell-off, U.S. futures are lower with investors exercising caution ahead of key inflation data and renewed fears about AI disruption spilling into several financial sectors. U.S.  stocks ended sharply lower Thursday, finishing near the lows as the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 both declined over -2%, underscoring the breadth of the decline, though led by technology shares amid concerns over AI-driven disruption. Volatility spiked sharply, sending the VIX up 18% back above 20 (and +2.5% now at 21.36). Cisco slid over 11% on weak  profit guidance, while Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Apple also fell. Investors renewed worries about the negative side of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout has weighed on software, gaming, travel, education in recent weeks/months and this week expanding the reach of concerns to freight, financials, tax planning, alt managers and media. Gold prices plunged -4.1%, silver -11%, copper -2.7% in shock aggressive sell-off as traders dump metals to cover equity losses but up slightly this morning. Treasuries rallied in a defensive bid, driving yields lower across the curve. Defensive sectors also led in the S&P as Utilities, Consumer Staples and REITs were the lone gainers. Bitcoin slid toward $65,000 as risk appetite deteriorated across asset classes. Investors now await Friday’s CPI report for inflation clues (at 8:30 am et), following a  strong January jobs report Wednesday and weaker housing data Thursday that complicates near-term Fed rate-cut  expectations. Some massive movers overnight on earnings, with some of the biggest gains AMAT, ANET, BROS, CART, RIVN and ROKU and the biggest declines in COHU, DKNG, FBIN, PINS and TOST. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -697 points to 56,941, the Shanghai Index dropped -51 points to 4,082, and the Hang Seng Index declined -465 points to 26,567. In Europe, the German DAX is down -39 points to 24,813, while the FTSE 100 edges lower by -4 points to 10,397.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -669.42 points, or 1.34%, to 49,451.98
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -469.32 points, or 2.04%, to 22,597.15
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -53.64 points, or 2.01% to 2,615.83

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline Y/Y for January…est. +2.5% (prior +2.7%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for January…est. +2.5% (prior +2.65)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for January…est. +2.5% (prior +2.6%)
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• DraftKings (DKNG) shares fall on guide; Q4 adj EPS $0.36 vs. est. $0.14 and revs rose 43.2% y/y to $1.98B vs. est. $1.97B driven primarily by continued healthy customer engagement, efficient acquisition of new customers, and higher Sportsbook net revenue margin; Q4 Monthly Unique Payers was unchanged y/y at 4.8 million; guides FY26 revs $6.5B-$6.9B below the consensus of $7.29B.
• Dutch Bros (BROS) shares rise; Q4 adj EPS $0.17 vs est $0.10 on revs $443.61Mm vs est $424.75Mm; guides FY revs $2.0-2.03B vs est $2.036B, comps +3-5%, adj EBITDA $355-365Mm vs est $365.64Mm.
• Expedia (EXPE) Q4 adj EPS $3.78 tops consensus $3.37 on revs $3.55B vs. est. Q4 booked room nights grew 9%, total gross bookings and revenue both grew 11% in Q4 and 8% for the full year, driven by strong execution and sustained market momentum; Q4 GAAP net income decreased 31% while Adjusted net income grew 52%; sees FY26 revenue $15.6B-$16B vs. consensus $15.7B and FY26 gross bookings $127B-$129B.
• Fortune Brands (FBIN) Q4 adj EPS $0.86 vs est $1.00 on revs $1.1B vs est $1.136B; guides FY sales +0-2% vs est +2.11% and adj EPS $3.35-3.65 vs est $4.08; sees adj Outperform mgn 14.5-15.5%.
• Instacart (CART) shares rise; Q4 EPS $0.30 vs est $0.52, adj EBITDA $303Mm vs est $292.18Mm on revs $992Mm vs est $974.08Mm, GTV $9.85B vs est $9.50B; guides Q1 GTV $10.13-10.28B vs est $9.95B and adj EBITDA $280-290Mm vs est $279.51Mm.
• Mohawk Industries (MHK) Q4 adj EPS $2.00 vs. consensus $1.98 and revs$2.7B vs. est. $2.68B; expects Q1 adjusted EPS between $1.75 and $1.85, excluding any restructuring or other one-time charges; anticipates 2026 sales and earnings to improve with economic recovery.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) announced that its board of directors has appointed John Chidsey, a director of NCLH, as president and CEO, effective immediately. Chidsey succeeds Harry Sommer, who is stepping down as president and CEO and as a director of NCLH.
• Rivian (RIVN) shares rise; Q4 adj EPS (-$0.54) vs. est. loss (-$0.68) and revs $1.29B vs. est. $1.26B; delivered 42,247 units in 2025, down from 51,579 units a year ago, slightly missing estimates; produced 10,974 vehicles & delivered 9,745 vehicles from Illinois facility in Q4 and guides 2026 vehicle deliveries 62,000-67,000 units vs visible Alpha estimate of 64,130 units; Capex for 2026 expected between $1.95B-$2.05B.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Q4 adj EPS $1.17 misses the $1.48 consensus and revs rose 1.6% y/y to $1.87B vs. est. $1.86B; Q4 adjusted Property EBITDAR $568.8M, down -$50.3M compared to Adjusted Property EBITDAR of $619.1M y/y.

• Ingersoll Rand (IR) Q4 adj EPS $0.96 vs est $0.90, adj EBITDA $580Mm vs est $561.8Mm on revs $2.091B vs est $2.039B; guides FY revs +2.5-4.5% vs est +4.63%, adj EBITDA $2.13-2.19B vs est $2.189B and adj EPS $3.45-3.57 vs est $3.56.
• Shares of trucking and logistics stocks took a hit on Thursday (CHRW, RXO, EXPD, LSTR, KNX, JBHT) as fears spread around disruption from artificial intelligence. The Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped from record levels, recently off ~4% for its worst day since last April as 17 of the 20 DJT components were in the red, led by logistics firms LSTR, CHRW and RXO which appeared to have been triggered by Algorhythm Holdings which said its SemiCab unit boosted customers' freight volumes by 300%-400% "without a corresponding increase in operational headcount"

• Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) Q4 adj EPS $0.45 vs est $0.50 on revs $751.213Mm vs est $777.61Mm; guides FY organic revs +high-single-digits vs est +16.5% and EBITDAC mgn flat to down moderate.
• Toast Inc. (TOST) Q4 EPS $0.16 vs est $0.13 on revs $1.633B vs est $1.62B; guides Q1 adj EBITDA $160-170Mm vs est $163.3Mm; sees FY adj EBITDA $775-795Mm vs est $795.6Mm; directors authorized a $500M increase to share repurchase program.
• Federal Realty (FRT) Q4 FFO/SHR $1.84 vs est $1.86 on sales $336.045Mm vs est $328.38Mm; guides FY FFO/SHR $7.42-7.52 vs est $7.42.
• Public Storage (PSA) Q4 core FFO $4.26 vs. consensus $4.21 on in-line revs $1.216B; sees FY26 core FFO $16.35-$17.00, vs. consensus $17.06 and sees FY26 same store revenue growth (2.2%); announces CEO Russell to retire, Boyle to succeed.

• Bio rad Labs (BIO) Q4 adj EPS $2.51 vs est $2.70 on sales $693.2Mm vs est $688.76Mm, gr mgn 49.8%; guides FY adj revs +0.5-1.5% vs est +2.15% and adj Outperform mgn 12.0-12.5%.
• Bright Horizons (BFAM) Q4 adj EPS $1.15 vs. consensus $1.12 and revs $734M vs. est. $727.44M; said Back-Up Care remained a standout all year - generating more than $725 million in revenue in 2025; sees year revs $3.075B-$3.125B, vs. consensus $3.12B and EPS $4.90-$5.10, vs. consensus $5.10.
• Dexcom (DXCM) Q4 adj EPS $0.68 vs est $0.65 on revs $1.26B vs est $1.246B; reiterates guidance, sees FY revs $5.16-5.25B vs est $5.24B.
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Q4 adj EPS $5.03 vs est $5.07 on revs $3.19B vs est $3.176B; guides FY revs $12.95-13.1B vs est $13.023B.

• Applied Materials (AMAT) Q1 adj EPS $2.38 vs est $2.20 on revs $7.01B vs est $6.871B, adj gr mgn 49.1%; guides Q2 revs $7.15-8.15B vs est $7.006B and adj EPS $2.44-2.84 vs est $2.28.
• Arista Networks (ANET) Q4 adj EPS $0.82 vs est $0.76 on revs $2.488B vs est $2.383B; guides Q1 revs $2.6B vs est $2.448B, adj gr mgn 62-63% and adj Outperform mgn approx 46%.
• JFrog (FROG) Q4 adj EPS $0.22 vs est $0.19, adj Outperform Inc $25.7Mm vs est $27.78Mm on revs $145.3Mm vs est $138.1Mm; guides Q1 revs $146-148Mm vs est $143.22Mm, adj Outperform Inc $25-26Mm vs est $23.65Mm and adj EPS $0.20-0.22 vs est $0.20; sees FY revs $623-628Mm vs est $611.68Mm, adj Outperform Inc $106-108Mm vs est $108.33Mm and adj EPS $0.88-0.92 vs est $0.88.
• Pinterest (PINS) shares slide; Q4 EPS $0.67 in-line with consensus on revs rising 14% y/y to $1.319B vs. est. $1.33B; guides Q1 revenue $951M-$971M vs. est. $981.28M, representing 11%-14% growth y/y; ended 2025 with 619 million global monthly active users, up from the 553 million it had reported in 2024; guides Q1 adj Ebitda $166M-$186M vs. est. $205M.
• Roku Inc. (ROKU) Q4 EPS $0.53 vs. est. $0.28; Q4 revs rose 15.8% y/y to $1.39B vs. est. $1.35B; Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin for Q4 expanded by 5.7 percentage points; sees Q1 revenue $1.20B, vs. consensus $1.16B; anticipate 2026 Platform revenue to grow 18% y/y to $4.890B, with gross margin between 51% to 52%.
• SPS Commerce (SPSC) Q4 adj EPS $1.14 vs est $1.01, adj EBITDA $60.5Mm vs est $59.7Mm on revs $192.7Mm vs est $193.6Mm; guides Q1 revs $191.6-193.6Mm vs est $197.63Mm, adj EBITDA $55.5-57.5Mm vs est $62.14Mm and adj EPS $0.95-0.99 vs est $1.08; sees FY revs $798.5-806.9Mm, adj EBITDA $261-265.5Mm vs est $264.72Mm and adj EPS $4.42-4.50 vs est $4.53; increases share repurchase program by $200M.
• Twilio (TWLO) Q4 adj EPS $1.33 vs est $1.24 on revs $1.37B vs est $1.32B; guides Q1 revs $1.335-1.345B vs est $1.288B, adj Outperform Inc $240-250Mm vs est $235.78Mm and adj EPS $1.21-1.26 vs est $1.22.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, February 13, 2026

U.S. stocks are bouncing between gains and losses early, failing to rally after yesterday’s sharp decline on Ai impact fears weighing on several sectors, even with the help of a cooler January CPI inflation report. U.S. Treasury yields dropped following the cooler-than-expected inflation for January, helping bolster bets that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least two rate cuts this year. Data showed the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.3% gain in December. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% after rising by an unrevised 0.2% in December. U.S. 10-year yields fell 3.7 basis points to 4.067% while the two-year yield, was down 4.4 bps at 3.422%. After today’s data, traders now price a 50% chance of a third rate cut by the Fed this year. Early rebound in crypto as Bitcoin back above $68,000 from $65K Thursday and precious metals also partially recovering. Early leaders include Utilities (XLU), rising for a 7^th straight day and Healthcare (XLV) and Industrials (XLI), while Financials (XLF) and Communications (XLC) are down the most.

• Online travel/Lodging: ABNB shares strong early after Q4 revenue/adj EBITDA 2.3%/2.9% above consensus and Q1 revenue guidance of $2.61B (midpoint) was 3.0% above Street, as management sees acceleration on slightly better take rate and FX tailwind; also, guidance on profitability, both 1Q26E and 2026E in-line. EXPE posted a solid Q4 print but more conservative FY26 guidance that implies a slowdown in the 2H - reported solid 4Q with EBITDA exceeding prior street estimates by 11%, total RNs and bookings grew +9% and 11% y/y (+10% ex-FX) and B2B delivered another strong quarter with +24% bookings growth.
• Software: FROG posted solid Q4 results, exceeding all guided metrics (revenue, billings, and operating margin) driven by sustained cloud consumption with Cloud growth of 42% y/yr materially outperforming implied guidance of 29% and the 2026 guide was set above expectations. TWLO delivered solid 4Q results with revenue (+14% YoY/+12% organic), Non-GAAP operating margin (18.7%), Non-GAAP EPS ($1.33), and FCF ($256.1M) all above consensus, but sub-10% organic growth outlook weighed on sentiment. PCOR posted Q4 results driven by a revenue beat, Re-accelerating growth, and better than expected operating margins and FCF.
• Truckers/Logistics stocks were defended by several analysts after yesterday’s precipitous drop weighed on several carriers (CHRW, RXO, EXPD, LSTR, JBHT, WERN). Stifel noted a confluence of factors weighing on the group including: 1) sector valuation multiples have expanded significantly in the past few months, based on supply rationalization potential and Self-help opportunity; 2) recent news flow about expanding access to Ai Tools has created some concern about the commoditization of technology-based competitive advantages; 3) also noted recent insider selling at CHRW and a credit rating downgrade at RXO; 4) and finally, the FMCSA issued a final ruling laying out the process and timeline for restricting non-domiciled driver licensees, which may have been less restrictive or immediate than some investors assumed.

• ANET +6%; shares jumped after Q4 revenue grew 29% to $2.49B, accelerating once again and showing a 6% beat vs. Street as Prod revenue drove all the upside, accelerating to +30% (vs. 25.5% q/q) to $2.1B (+7% upside) and raised year rev growth to 25% from 20%.
• CART +17%; shares rise after Q4 beat on GTV/EBITDA, and a strong Q1 guide as GTV 3% ahead of the Street, and 14% y/y GTV growth was the strongest in three years; Q4 adj. EBITDA of $303M was 4% above Street, while margins improved +200bps y/y and Q1 GTV/adj EBITDA midpoint guide was 2%/3% above est.
• MGA +16%; shares rise after Q4 EBIT $814M beat consensus $739M, driven by margin and rev; beat driven by operational excellence, some tariff recovery and guides '26 EBIT mid-point $2.69B beat vs cons $2.47B, upside on margin and rev. '26 FCF midpoint $1.7B ahead of consensus $1.5B.
• RIVN +20%; shares rallied after it issued a 2026 delivery outlook range with a midpoint above analyst estimates and said it expects deliveries of its long-awaited R2 midsized SUV in Q2; its rev beat was driven by better Software & Services sales of $447M; Q4 gross profit was $120M vs. est. $43M
• ROKU +8%; shares jumped on results after handily beating Q4 estimates, guided for above expectations 1Q26E/2026E, prompting an upgrade to Buy from Neutral at Rosenblatt noting Roku has built a formidable gatekeeper presence for U.S.. streaming -- half of all streaming in the U.S. on TVs goes through their Devices
• TPH +26%; after Japan's Sumitomo Forestry to acquire co for $4.5B, with TPH shareholders to receive $47 per share in cash, a premium of 29% to stock's Thursday close of $36.57.

• CALY -13%; shares declined after annual net revenue and adjusted Ebitda guidance missed consensus estimates and guided Q1 sales $635M to $665M vs. est. $659.8M.
• COHU -4%; shares fell after reported Q425 revenue in-line with guidance, but with non-GAAP gross margins well below guidance due to a one-time inventory charge and revenue for Q126 was guided flat w/w.
• DKNG -10%; better than expected Q4 adj. EBITDA results, ahead of consensus but the guidance for '26E is weighing on shares, particularly the revenue guide for '26E; Q425 Revenue/Adj EBITDA were 0%/26% above consensus, driven by a 2% beat on core OSB while 2026E guidance was 8%/20% below Revenue/Adj EBITDA
• PINS -20%; was downgraded by at least three Wall Street firms following a disappointing quarterly miss and lower guidance and increasing its spending outlook; revenue growth decelerating from 17% Y/Y ex-FX in Q2 to 16% in Q3 to 13% in Q4 to 9-10% in Q1.
• STLD -5%; Steel makers declined (CLF, NUE, STLD) following news President Trump rolled back some tariffs on metals, which include Steel and aluminium goods.

Closing Recap

Friday, February 13, 2026

U.S. stocks opened flattish with the S&P 500 (SPX) dipping below 6,800 early morning before finding its footing and rallying as high as 6,881 this afternoon before a late day dip pared gains, holding above its 100dma support of roughly 6,812. The S&P has tested and bounced off its 100dma at least four times since November, but with the VIX holding above the 20 level going into the long 3-day Presidents Day holiday weekend, markets watching those lines closely. Sentiment got a boost as January CPI provided a relief rally that partially recovered Thursday's losses and raised expectations of Fed rate cut expectations. January CPI rose +0.2% (below +0.3% est.), y/y +2.4% (below +2.5% est.) and in-line core CPI. The data helped rebound precious metals and bonds as Treasury yields slid across the board, but mostly on the short end. Bitcoin bounced back above $68K after lows around 65K this week though remains down roughly 48% from October ATHs. Other highlights this week was a Dow Jones Industrial Average record high, strong nonfarm payrolls, AI disruption fears expanded into freight, financials, private equity, and media this while remains a headwind for software. Transport Avg tumbled 6% on Thursday after hitting record highs earlier this week. The 10-year yield falls 0.150 bps this week to 4.055%, the lowest since November. The two-year slips 0.085 bps to 3.409%, the lowest since September.

Defensive utilities (XLU) rose for a 7th straight day and are up 7% this month (and for the week). The Great Rotation of 2026 gained pace this week with four main leaders: Energy (+21% YTD), Materials (+17% YTD), Industrials (+12% YTD), and Staples (+15% YTD) the four pillars, while Financials, Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary are the year's laggards. We are nearly 75% through earnings season and of the 371 S&P 500 companies reporting thus far, we have seen a 77% beat vs 78% Last year (per Reuters) with the avg beat 10% vs 28% LY, avg miss -32% vs -11% LY and average yr/yr earnings growth 12% vs 16% Last year.

Foreign markets remain strong as Britain's FTSE 100 locked in a third straight week of gains on Friday, as corporate takeovers and expectations of monetary policy easing helped counter global concerns about AI's disruptive potential on a swathe of industries. The blue‑chip FTSE 100 rose 0.4%, hovering below record highs touched on Thursday. The FTSE 250 mid‑cap index gained 0.5%, securing its first weekly rise after two consecutive weeks of losses. Asian markets pulled back overnight from recent record highs for the Nikkei in Japan.

Watch seasonality: @Bluekurtic noted on X, “The market enters the second half of February next week. Seasonally the worst two week stretch of the year for the S&P 500, tied with the second half of September. Since 1950, #SP500 has been positive only 44.7% of the time in the second half of February.” 2), Also, @AlmanacTrader noted on X, “Longer-term weakness returning on Tuesday after Presidents’ Day. S&P 500 has been down 6 of the last 8 Tuesdays. Since 1990, avg losses range from –0.56% for NASDAQ to –0.27% for DJIA.”

• Reports indicated that OPEC+ is leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April, three OPEC+ sources said per Reuters, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and price strength is bolstered by tensions over U.S.-Iran relations. Eight OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman - meet on March 1.
• Precious metal prices end higher on Friday as April gold settles +$97.90/oz, or +1.98%, at $5,046.30 while March Silver settles +$2.28/oz, or +3.02%, at $77.96. Gold gained 1.4% for the week and has finished higher in 8 out of the past 10 weeks. For silver, up 1.5% for the week, breaking a two-week losing streak, up 11 of last 15 weeks.

• In Auto Suppliers: MGA shares rise after Q4 EBIT $814M beat consensus $739M, driven by margin and rev; beat driven by operational excellence, some tariff recovery and guides '26 EBIT midpoint $2.69B beat vs cons $2.47B, upside on margin and rev. '26 FCF midpoint $1.7B ahead of consensus $1.5B.
• In Auto Retail: AAP shares up early after results as Q4 sales light but EBIT margin better, with some help below the line. Strong execution in 2025 overall and 2026 guidance incl. meaningful margin expansion again; Comps of +1.1% are disappointing, implying negative low single digit volume and moderating vs. +3.0% in Q3

• In Discount Retail: DLTR downgraded to Underperform from Neutral with $95 PT as believe current valuation and earnings expectations may be too elevated given that DLTR: 1) lacks investments and focus on offering a compelling digital strategy, which may limit top line growth over time; and 2) may have potentially underappreciated dis-synergies which adds risk to margin expansion goals.
• In Restaurants: BROS Q4 print and FY26 guidance was above consensus where nearly every metric came in well ahead of consensus and FY26 came in better than feared while negative included EBITDA margins guided to down ~60 bps y/y; WEN declines after US comps fell (-11.3%) in quarter, down from +4.1% growth y/y (which compared to MCD US comp +6.8%) and forecasts annual profit below estimates, as sees 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.56-$0.60 vs. consensus of $0.86 citing muted traffic. MCD was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus saying with value menus and sales promotions, is well positioned to attract budget-conscious consumers.

• In Casino & Gaming: WYNN missed quarterly adjusted profit estimate on weak Las Vegas business as Q4 adj EPS $1.17 misses the $1.48 consensus and Q4 adjusted Property EBITDAR $568.8M, down -$50.3M compared to Adjusted Property EBITDAR of $619.1M Y/y along with margin deterioration in Macau and Vegas. DKNG reported better than expected Q4 adj. EBITDA results, ahead of consensus but the guidance for '26E is weighing on shares, particularly the revenue guide for '26E; Q425 Revenue/Adj EBITDA were 0%/26% above consensus, driven by a 2% beat on core OSB while 2026E guidance was 8%/20% below Revenue/Adj EBITDA
• In Cruise Sector: NCLH was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan and cut tgt to $20 after the company announced that Harry Sommer, its CEO and director, departed and resigned from the board on February 12 as part of a strategic leadership change.
• Food/Ride Delivery: CART shares rise after Q4 beat on GTV/EBITDA, and a strong Q1 guide as GTV 3% ahead of the Street, and 14% y/y GTV growth was the strongest in three years; Q4 adj. EBITDA of $303M was 4% above Street, while margins improved +200bps y/y and Q1 GTV/adj EBITDA midpoint guide was 2%/3% above est.
• Leisure Products: CALY shares declined after annual net revenue and adjusted Ebitda guidance missed consensus estimates and guided Q1 sales $635M to $665M vs. est. $659.8M

• In Energy: The U.S. eased sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector on Friday, issuing two general licenses that allow global energy companies to resume oil and gas operations in the OPEC member and for other companies to negotiate contracts on investments in new energy operations. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license allowing CVX, BP, SHEL, REPYY and Eni to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Those companies still have offices in the country.

• In Crypto: COIN reported Q4 revenue and profit that missed consensus driven by lower Transaction and Subscription & Services revenue while EPS of $0.66 missed estimates by $0.20; Q4 transaction revenue tumbled to $982.7M, from $1.56B y/y, largely driven by a more than 45% drop in consumer transaction revenue; Q4 Stablecoin revenue rose to $364.1M from $225.9M.
• In FinTech: UPST was downgraded to Underperform with $20 tgt at Citizens saying its primarily valuation based, as the introduction of the three-year medium-term guidance provides them with greater clarity into the earnings power of the business at scale. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs upgraded to Neutral from Sell with a $35 price target after shares have underperformed and it now sees a more balanced risk reward.
• Payments: TOST posted Q4 revenue of $1.63B vs. est $1,62B; though FY26 recurring gross payment growth guidance of 21% was 70 basis points shy of consensus, and EBITDA met despite a 150 point hardware headwind and ramping product and go to market investments.

• IRON shares tumbled late day after the FDA said they had completed their review of this application, as amended, and have determined that we cannot approve this application in its present form.
• MRK was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank and raise PT to $150 from $115 as believe the market is currently undervaluing MRK, largely due to Keytruda's looming patent Cliff. Firm’s analysis indicates a clear path for MRK to navigate this transition effectively.
• MRNA Q4 revs of $678M topped the consensus of $626M saying sales were primarily driven by Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine franchise and reported a narrower quarterly loss of $2.11 per share from last year's loss of $2.91 per share.
• RARE strategic restructuring announced as focus shifts to Ph3 Angelman study; reported 4Q total revenue of $207mn (in-line with the January pre-announcement range and above prior Visible Alpha Consensus Data of $196mn), inclusive of Crysvita and Dojolvi sales of $145mn and $32mn.
• VRTX was upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $540 tgt after earnings, reflecting its refreshed view on the setup progressing into 2026; optimistic about povetacicept and inaxaplin, as both hold blockbuster potential and could establish a dominant renal franchise to diversify VRTX's l-t revenue streams.
• In Insulin sector: DXCM reported full Q4 results, which beat on the top and bottom lines and reiterated its financial guidance for ’26 that was provided a few weeks ago as expects to generate sales in the range of $5.16-$5.25B (up 11%-13%) on the top line.

• Steel makers declined (CLF, NUE, STLD) following news President Trump rolled back some tariffs on metals, which include Steel and aluminium goods. Financial Times reported that the Trump administration is reviewing a list of products affected by the levies and plans to exempt some items, halt the expansion of lists and instead launch more targeted National Security probes into specific goods.
• In Metals & Mining: Precious metals miners saw gains as gold and silver saw modest rebounds: AEM delivered relatively in-line earnings. 2026-28 guidance is consistent at 3.3-3.5Moz while growth into the early 2030s is targeted at 20-30%; HL shares also rallied behind better earnings and a bounce in precious metal prices. FCX upgraded to Buy at Argus, but most industrial metal stocks were down today.

• In Social media: PINS was downgraded by at least three Wall Street firms following a disappointing quarterly miss and lower guidance and increasing its spending outlook; revenue growth decelerating from 17% Y/Y ex-FX in Q2 to 16% in Q3 to 13% in Q4 to 9-10% in Q1.
• China Tech sector: BIDU, BABA shares volatile after reports the U.S. adds some companies to Defense department's list of firms allegedly aiding Chinese military-federal register. U.S. adds companies including Alibaba, 360 Security technology, Baidu, BYD Corp to Defense department's list.

• Software: FROG posted solid Q4 results, exceeding all guided metrics (revenue, billings, and operating margin) driven by sustained cloud consumption with Cloud growth of 42% y/yr materially outperforming implied guidance of 29% and the 2026 guide was set above expectations. TWLO delivered solid 4Q results with revenue (+14% YoY/+12% organic), Non-GAAP operating margin (18.7%), Non-GAAP EPS ($1.33), and FCF ($256.1M) all above consensus, but sub-10% organic growth outlook weighed on sentiment. PCOR posted Q4 results driven by a revenue beat, Re-accelerating growth, and better than expected operating margins and FCF.
• Optical sector: Jefferies said they are out with a new Optical Model with forecasts for units, ASPs and revenue across Cloud, Telecom and Enterprise following substantially higher CAPEX guides from major hyperscalers. The firm believes that Ai-driven infrastructure buildouts support a durable multi-year demand Cycle, with Ai-only transceiver spend approaching $50B by 2028. Tight supply and faster technology transitions are driving higher ASPs and margin expansion, particularly as the industry shifts from 50G to 100G and 200G. These Dynamics benefit LITE and COHR given leverage to InP lasers and high-speed Optics and improving visibility.
• Cybersecurity: Deutsche Bank’s channel partner survey said suggests a mixed quarter for the off-cycle Cyber companies within its coverage. CRWD was the only off-cycle company with sequentially improving net partner outperformance and was only second to PANW on this metric as the vendors saw strength across their respective platforms. RBRK also appears to have had a solid quarter despite a sequential decline in net partner outperformance. Otherwise, DBAB's results once again suggest pockets of easing momentum across Cyber as all other off-cycle vendors it covers saw a q/q decline with NTSK and OKTA seeing the greatest downtick. ZS was upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein citing valuation saying Zscaler is the cheapest cybersecurity vendor.

Street Recommendations

Friday, February 13, 2026

• MCD Argus upgraded McDonald's to Buy from Hold.

• CHKP Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Check Point to $195 from $220 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company reported better billings driven by subscription and maintenance as the July price increase led to less revenue being carved out to the product line mechanically, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• COIN Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Coinbase to $148 from $258 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The company's revenue and adjusted EBITDA missed estimates and the Q1 outlook was largely below expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Coinbase management remains confident in its longer-term goals. It brought down estimates "meaningfully" post the print.
• CPA Barclays raised the firm's price target on Copa Holdings to $185 from $150 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that despite Copa's Q4 report short of its expectations, it remains confident on the company's fundamentals.
• CROX Barclays raised the firm's price target on Crocs to $109 from $86 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's Q4 results beat smites and management provided fiscal 2026 guidance that came in ahead of consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays is encouraged but awaits further visibility on the Heydude turn and sales acceleration at Crocs North America.
• TRIP Barclays lowered the firm's price target on TripAdvisor to $10 from $13 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares following the earnings report. The company reported a slight revenue and EBITDA miss and issued mixed guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says exploring strategic alternatives for TheFork may free up cash flow.

• DAR BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Darling Ingredients to $57 from $45 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The company's fundamentals have begun to improve ahead of expected favorable RVO - Renewable Volume Obligations - outcome, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ETR BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Entergy to $112 from $104 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company executed well on the year and there were no changes to the 2027-2029 outlook ranges, as the management reaffirmed their greater-than-8% EPS CAGR through 2029, which is now anchored off 2025, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• EXC BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Exelon to $51 from $49 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is positive on the company's Q4 beat, better-than-expected 2026 guidance, incremental shift in growth mix towards transmission, and updated long-term growth outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• SPXC BofA upgraded SPX Technologies to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $280, up from $240. The firm, which is raising its FY26 EPS estimates by 69c to reflect 39c from announced M&A and 30c from phasing in capacity additions, argues that capacity additions, new product introductions and capital deployment set the company up well for about 20% EPS growth into FY27.
• DKNG BofA analyst Shaun Kelley lowered the firm's price target on DraftKings to $30 from $37.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after the company reported Q4 revenue below expectations and gave revenue guidance of $6.5B-$6.9B, which implies 7%-14% growth and is below the firm's estimate of $7.0B and the Street's $7.3B. While the guidance is likely conservative, it's also low enough to reinforce concerns on prediction market cannibalization, the analyst tells investors.
• CRSP BofA lowered the firm's price target on Crispr Therapeutics to $86 from $89 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following the Q4 report, the firm updated for the current share count, which alters its per-share contributions, and increased revenue expectations for Casgevy in 2026.

• PCOR BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Procore to $66 from $88 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's 22% cRPO growth vs. consensus at 18% was highly impressive as it was the first tough compare since duration dynamics percolated and bookings strength manifested in the second consecutive quarter of revenue growth acceleration, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While the acceleration has been modest, the underlying bookings strength should bolster investor confidence that go-to-market changes have helped drive better execution without sacrificing margins, the firm adds.

• COIN Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi lowered the firm's price target on Coinbase to $300 from $400 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said While no exchange or trading platform can be spared from what has happened to crypto spot prices over the past month, COIN remains solidly profitable, and is taking incremental share while it continues to expand its service offerings. And while navigating the current environment short term, the company remains focused on the medium term, continuing to push key initiatives including the Everything Exchange, commerce-based use cases for the USDC stablecoin, as well as expansion of deFi applications on Base/Ethereum.
• DKNG Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on DraftKings to $44 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported solid Q4 results, although the stock's sell-off continued after-hours following disappointing FY26 guidance. Favorable sport outcomes bolstered OSB results during the quarter, and handle grew 4% year-over-year in January, with management noting that there was only a modest impact to engagement from prediction markets that is primarily from lower-value customers, resulting in an immaterial impact to revenue.
• DXCM Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on DexCom to $95 from $99 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said there were no surprises in its Q4 results and 2026 guidance as it was inline wit hteir preannouncement. The story remains the same for Dexcom; the company will continue to iterate its offerings in the US to maintain its status as the premiere glucose sensor while 15-day G7 becomes the predominant sensor this year and eventually benefits GM, and outside the US, the company will have tiered sensor offerings depending on markets' coverages while making steady progress on strengthening coverage for CGM.
• FROG Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on JFrog to $66 from $75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they posted another beat and raise in Q4 with revenues well ahead of consensus. Cloud strength was again driven by broad-based product adoption including Advanced Security and Curation, continued conversion of customers consuming above minimum commitments into higher annual contracts, and strong Enterprise+ penetration reaching 57% of revenue.
• TOST Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Toast to $37 from $54 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they posted another consistentquarter that doesn;t change their view on the story; this is a firm that's taking share in its space, expanding TAMs, and investing to ensure durability while maintaining healthy margins.
• TXG Canaccord analyst Kyle Mikson raised the firm's price target on 10x Genomics to $22 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they continue to favor TXG in tools and believe the company is positioned to achieve a near-term growth reacceleration following several quarters of sequential improvement. The price target raise is primarily driven by increased revenue assumptions in the out years of their 10-year DCF model.

• PINS Citi downgraded Pinterest to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $19, down from $38, following the earnings report. The firm sees more limited visibility going forward for Pinterest due to tariffs and the company's sales reorganization. The company's changes will take some and limit visibility, driving its revenue growth below Citi's mid-to-high-teens expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• DOCN Citi raised the firm's price target on DigitalOcean to $75 from $55 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the Q4 report. The firm rolled forward the stock's valuation, saying the sock has rallied on enthusiasm for the DigitalOcean's "materializing AI playbook."
• MSGS Citi analyst Jason Bazinet raised the firm's price target on MSG Sports to $337 from $290 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company has said it remains open to a potential minority stake sale, which could help close the stock's valuation gap relative to the private market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi rolled forward the stock's valuation to fiscal 2027.

• ABNB Deutsche Bank analyst Lee Horowitz upgraded Airbnb to Buy from Hold with a $154 price target. The company has a "fairly full" product pipeline in 2026 as its fee structure benefits from scale, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Deutsche expects Airbnb's hotel business to grow while its AI native search drives up conversions. While the company is "not immune from AI disintermediation," it is "more shielded than others," contends Deutsche Bank. The firm sees a "compelling" risk/reward at Airbnb's current share levels.

• ABNB Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney upgraded Airbnb to Outperform from In Line with a $145 price target and raising estimates in "the wake of Beat & Largely Raise Q4 results." After years of deceleration and multiple de-rating, Airbnb has deployed "a series of compounding product improvements" that the firm sees providing the probability of accelerating revenue growth in 2026 and beyond, the analyst tells investors.

• MEDP Jefferies analyst David Windley upgraded Medpace to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $560. The firm says biotech funding has "inflected meaningfully" in the second half of 2025, with "well-established" 12-15-month lag setting up bookings acceleration through the second half of 2026. AI is now less of a near-term risk to full service contract research organizations an Medpace's valuation reset has brought "trough levels," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies believes the company's guidance conservatively assumes elevated cancellations, creasing a risk/reward that is is skewed favorably ahead of a potential demand and earnings inflection.
• TWLO Jefferies analyst Samad Samana lowered the firm's price target on Twilio to $125 from $132 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Q4 results were "solid" and the firm believes the stock will likely regain some of its recent losses as a result, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• TOST Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Toast to $35 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. FY26 recurring gross payment growth guidance of 21% was 70 basis points shy of consensus, and EBITDA met despite a 150 point hardware headwind and ramping product and go to market investments, the analyst noted. However, the firm adds that it came away from the report positive, as "growth drivers appear to be humming and its relative insulation to AI risk should support the valuation."
• DAR Jefferies analyst Dushyant Ailani raised the firm's price target on Darling Ingredients to $66 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Early-year EBITDA is tracking "solidly above" consensus and FY26 benefits from firmer credit markets and improving feedstock trends, says the analyst, who adds that RVO momentum "remains the core driver."

• ROKU JPMorgan analyst Cory Carpenter reiterates Roku as a top pick with an Overweight rating and $125 price target post the Q4 report. The company's Platform revenue growth of 18% beat expectations of 17%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan thinks Platform revenue growth of 20% in 2026 "is still very much on the table."
• PINS JPMorgan downgraded Pinterest to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $20, down from $36. The company's Q1 guidance & 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin outlook came in below expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm is looking for Pinterest's monetization initiatives to drive improved financial performance before again recommending the shares. Diversifying the company's advertiser base and restructuring the sales team will take time, contends JPMorgan.
• ANET JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks to $190 from $175 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance materially due to momentum in its leverage to the AI investment cycle, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the momentum across Arista's hyperscaler customers is supporting higher confidence in AI networking revenue for the year.
• AMAT JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $400 from $260 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company prorated solid fiscal Q1 results, reflecting another quarter of strong execution, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Applied's outlook sets the stage for a growth trajectory in 2026 that "lands well north of prior estimates (while still leaving the door open for further upside)."
• TOST JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Toast to $38 from $43 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees "no major flaws to pick at" in the company's Q4 report. However, it acknowledges that "bears might feed on" Toast's recurring gross profit and EBITDA beats against the high end of guidance coming in at the lowest level in two years. The stock has been caught up in the AI selloff, but Toast's "growth and moat" are attractive, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ANET KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks to $178 from $170 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q4's 29% revenue growth and 63.4% gross margins both exceeded expectations and Arista raised its 2026 guidance to 25% growth, now to $11.25B, with upside now expected from AI. KeyBanc thinks the company should be a benefactor of AI accelerator diversity, AI customer diversity, and expansion into new verticals such as Campus.
• AVNT KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Avient to $56 from $50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Avient successfully lifted growth expectations to low single digit organic growth vs. investors pricing in little growth just a few months ago. From here, growth above 2% would be required for the story to develop positively. KeyBanc expects growth to accelerate above this level as trough conditions in the majority of end markets turn more positive and faster-growing areas sustain high growth.
• CGNX KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Cognex to $70 from $50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm is also increasing its estimates to reflect the company's solid execution and above-consensus Q1 outlook. KeyBanc is particularly impressed by Cognex's strong progress on OpEx efficiencies and management's expectation for 25% adjusted EBITDA margins by the end of FY26.
• LECO KeyBanc analyst Steve Barger raised the firm's price target on Lincoln Electric to $340 from $280 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes shares rose following its Q4 results. To start 2026, KeyBanc is seeing a positive backdrop and early signs of an inflection in short cycle manufacturing, and Lincoln's FY26 guide came in modestly above consensus.
• WMT KeyBanc analyst Bradley Thomas raised the firm's price target on Walmart to $145 from $128 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes Walmart is one of the best positioned to navigate the current environment. Economic data remains mixed with tailwinds from lower mortgage/interest rates, improved housing data, and job growth, but headwinds remain from low consumer confidence and a higher cost of living, KeyBanc points out. Looking ahead, the firm sees a potential positive catalyst to spending from higher tax refunds and easier monetary policy, which should accelerate spending in the months ahead.

• AEP Mizuho analyst Anthony Crowdell raised the firm's price target on American Electric to $130 from $123 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
• AMAT Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $410 from $370 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm upped estimates following the company's earnings print.
• CHKP Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz lowered the firm's price target on Check Point to $205 from $225 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported mixed results and guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• AFYA Morgan Stanley downgraded Afya to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $16, down from $17.50. The firm says that while the company's medical undergrad operation remains solid, other structural trends point to a more negative outlook. Afya faces already mature seats, which is leading to slower volume growth, and investments needed to scale its other businesses, likely affecting margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• HTGC Piper Sandler downgraded Hercules Capital to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $17.50, down from $20.50, following the Q4 report. Hercules' software exposure is 35% and could bring "negative headlines, noise, and potential difficulty in business models with AI disruption a risk," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper continues to view Hercules as one of the best underwriters in technology lending, but believes its near-term returns will be driven primarily by the dividend given macro uncertainty and volatility rather than share appreciation.
• TYL Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries lowered the firm's price target on Tyler Technologies to $543 from $671 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q4 results showcased a return to positive SaaS ACV Bookings growth a quarter sooner than it expected with new Flips ARR growing 64% year-over-year for the second consecutive quarter. After a 37% pullback in shares year-to-date, Tyler now trades at a discount to the rest of Vertical Software. Even in consideration of the brutal software tape, the punishment Tyler has received vs. Piper's view on the fundamental strength of the business is the widest gulf in its coverage, the firm says.
• ANET Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Arista Networks to $175 from $159 on higher estimates and multiple, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes shares were up about 15% after-hours following a larger than anticipated beat, and more importantly, a very strong 5% guide raise to 25% for the year.
• TRUP Piper Sandler analyst John Barnidge lowered the firm's price target on Trupanion to $45 from $60 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company beat its and Street on earnings and Street on revenues with loss ratios a record and retention further improving. There was seasonal deceleration that typically occurs moving to Q4 from Q3 given weather and holiday-related disruptions. Piper believes investors may focus on deceleration in revenue growth given the level of focus at this time by investors on any company focused on distributing products and what disruption AI may play in their business go-forward, and a lower rate of revenue growth does not help to dislodge this notion.
• EXPE Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion lowered the firm's price target on Expedia to $225 from $250 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes shares were off slightly after-hours following a solid Q4 print but more conservative FY26 guidance that implies a slowdown in the second half of the year growth and margin improvements as they lap optimization benefits from 2025.
• FROG Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on JFrog to $65 from $70 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says the company delivered a solid result to end 2025, with all metrics exceeding expectations and cloud growth remaining strong at up 42%. The 2026 guide was set above expectations, but continues to implement the conservative guidance philosophy that led to beats and raises throughout 2025.
• PINS Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion lowered the firm's price target on Pinterest to $21 from $33 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes shares were down about 15% after market following a print and Q1 guidance that was below Street. Usage remains solid with Pinterest users reaching ATH, but the flow through to revenue is not obvious, Piper adds.
• RIVN Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Rivian to $18 from $20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company posted respectable Q4 results that topped expectations. However, FY26 guidance calls for an EBITDA loss of between $1.8B and $2.1B, implying slight downside vs. consensus estimates of about $1.8B.
• ROKU Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Roku to $140 from $135 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Roku's consistent messaging around growth in the ads business via DSP partnerships, expansion of content, plus mid-teens increase in streaming hours is beginning to strike a chord. Q4 results were solid and Q1 and FY26 guidance handily above prior forecasts, Piper adds.
• TWLO Piper Sandler analyst James Fish lowered the firm's price target on Twilio to $130 from $148 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Following a 20% decline year-to-date, Twilio put up a quarter and guide that was largely inline with what it expected. Positively, Voice & Messaging continued to show strong growth, up "high-teens in the quarter, with Voice AI accelerating more than 60% that could provide for durability to continued aggregate Voice acceleration into 2026.

• RYN Raymond James upgraded Rayonier to Strong Buy from Outperform with a price target of $28, up from $26. Post-merger, Rayonier controls over 4.1M acres of U.S. forestry, a strong balance sheet, and roughly $300M available for accretive share repurchases, while also acquiring Potlatch's top-10 U.S. lumber platform and various land- and carbon-related ventures currently unpriced by the market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Lumber prices appear to have bottomed, supply remains constrained, and the timberland assets offer a finite, inflation-protected store of value with cash flow upside, the firm adds.

• AMWL Stifel analyst David Grossman lowered the firm's price target on Amwell to $5 from $6 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. 2026 revenue guidance coming in about $40M below consensus reflects strategic portfolio restructuring, exiting lower-quality revenue streams, and client-specific contract adjustments, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• AMAT Stifel analyst Brian Chin raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $450 from $340 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following a "strong" fiscal Q1 print and Q2 guidance well-above the firm's and consensus estimates, Stifel contends that Applied Materials "checked the boxes it needed to not just exceed expectations but convince that its business is on a strong re-acceleration path."
• CROX Stifel raised the firm's price target on Crocs to $99 from $90 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. FY26 adjusted EPS guidance for $12.88-$13.55 "represents a meaningful step-up from our prior expectations," pointing to margin expansion and HEYDUDE inflection in FY26, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

• RIVN UBS upgraded Rivian to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $16, up from $15, following the Q4 report. Deutsche Bank upgraded the shares this morning to Buy. Rivian's near-term risk/reward is more balanced at current levels as UBS's prior rating was in part valuation based, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm remains "excited" about Rivian's product pipeline and the brand. It believes the company's 2026 guidance "encapsulates some of the upside potential with downside risk."
• EIX UBS downgraded Edison International to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $78, up from $70. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade following the stock's 21% outperformance over the past six months. UBS says its estimates no longer have enough upside to support a Buy rating. It believes the upside and downside for Edison shares is more balanced in the short term.
• EVRG UBS analyst William Appicelli downgraded Evergy to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $88, up from $86. The firm sees less room for upside following the company's strong regulatory performance and share price strength over the past year. Evergy is now trading at an in-line multiple, which appropriately prices in its earnings growth of 7%-8%, the execution risks from here and the improved regulatory backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• PINS Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski lowered the firm's price target on Pinterest to $27 from $35 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that as it feared post the January 27 restructuring announcement, Pinterest reduced revenue guidance for Q1/2026 on weakness in endemic ad categories and a sales leadership change. Headcount reductions partially offset the margin impact, but estimates still fall, Wells adds.
• ABNB Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Airbnb to $133 from $128 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes that room nights and bookings ahead, signs of improving product velocity, out flat margin guide and no further clarity on more aggressive hotel supply rollout or sponsored ads are likely to put the bull case on hold. Estimates are moving modestly higher, Wells adds.
• FDX Wells Fargo analyst Christian Wetherbee raised the firm's price target on FedEx to $430 from $380 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Investor Day lived up to expectations with upside to both near-term and longer-term targets. In addition, free cash flow was better and guide seemed prudent, which strengthens the case for share price upside as the market catches up.
• WYNN Wells Fargo analyst Trey Bowers lowered the firm's price target on Wynn Resorts to $147 from $152 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company's results were impacted by softer hold levels across all of its major regions. By Wells' estimates, EBITDA would have been inline $497M net of hold. The firm remains highly upbeat on the growth outlook in the years ahead.

• INSP Wolfe Research downgraded Inspire Medical to Peer Perform from Outperform without a price target. While facility economics remain intact, the transition to Current Procedural Terminology code 64582 with the "-52" modifier is expected to materially reduce physician reimbursement, creating disincentives that could pressure adoption, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Although Inspire Medical may navigate the shift, coding uncertainty through 2028 makes guidance visibility challenging and limits confidence in upside, leaving the stock potentially vulnerable, including to takeout speculation, the firm says.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 8:30 AM ET NY Empire Manufacturing for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Employment Trends for January
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for February

• Earnings After the Close: ACLS ANDE ATRC BBNX BELFA CDNS CE CHCT CNVS CSR CZR DVN EQT ESI ESRT EXE FE GKOS GNK GSHD GSM HALO HCKT HL HUN IAG IOSP JELD KVUE LESL LZB MCY MED MKSI NNE PANW PBI QMCO QUAD RBA ROG RSG RSI RUSHA SMWB TCMD TFII TOL TRAK USNA WTTR

• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for December
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for January
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization M/M for January
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long Term TIC Flows for December
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AGI AMPL AWK AWR BHC BKD BKNG BNL BORR CAKE CAR CDE CF CLW COKE CRH CVI CVNA CWAN CYH DASH EBAY EIX EQX FIG FSM HLF HST INVH JACK JXN KALU KGC LOPE MAC MCW MMLP NDSN NTR NXDR OGS OII OTF OXY PAAS RDN RELY RGLD RS SB TAP TBI TK TNK TPL TROX TS UAN WES WH

• 2026 NAHB International Builders Show (IBS), 2/17-2/19, in Orlando, FL

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Survey for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance Goods Trade Balance for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for December
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 12:00 PM ET                 Weekly EIA/DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACH AKAM ALRM AMH AMN ARD AXTI CARG CC CENX CTO CWST DBX ED EGO EIG EXR FG FIVN FND FNF GH GLPI HG HHH HLIT ICUI INDI IRTC JAKK LNT LYV LZ NEM OLED ONTO OPEN PK PLSE PTCT RIG RMAX RNG RYI SEM SFM ST TNDM TXRH VICR WEAV WK WSC

• B Riley 3^rd Annual Semiconductor Bus Tour, 2/19 in Phoenix, CA
• 2026 NAHB International Builders Show (IBS), 2/17-2/19, in Orlando, FL

• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 advance reading
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q4-advance
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, flash-Feb
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, flash-Feb
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, flash-Feb
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Sentiment, Feb-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for December
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

.