Early Look

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

U.S. futures were down overnight following another rout in Asian markets, particularly in South Korea’s Kospi which fell -12%, reversed early this morning after the New York Times reported in public, Iran’s surviving leaders have defiantly refused to negotiate with President Trump to end the American and Israeli assault on their Country. But a day after the attacks began, operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict, according to officials briefed on the outreach. The hopes of a quick resolution between the U.S. and a new regime in Iran is giving hopes to markets, as stocks rebounded and oil prices pared gains (WTI crude last around $75 per barrel off highs $77.23). Gold and silver prices rebound as the dollar index (DXY) eases off more than 1 month highs. Markets are coming off a rough day on Tuesday as each of the S&P 500 sectors were in the red, as materials and industrials saw the biggest losses on fears that higher oil prices and borrowing costs could weigh on the U.S. economy. However, key energy markets pared earlier gains while bonds and stocks clawed back losses Tuesday after President Donald Trump offered assurances on the flow of energy and other commercial trade in the Persian Gulf. Next up for the U.S., monthly ADP private payroll data at 8:15 am are expected to rise a meager 43K in February after adding just 22K in January. In Asian markets overnight, The Nikkei Index tumbled -2,033 points or 3.61% to settle at 54,245, the Shanghai Index dropped -40 points to 4,082, and the Hang Seng Index declined -518 points or 2% to 25,249. The Kospi Index plunged 11.94%, which followed a 7.2% drop on Tuesday, led by weakness again in chip players Samsung Electronics Co., and SK Hynix Inc. The rout triggered a 20-minute trading halt early in the Wednesday session. Of more than 800 stocks on the benchmark, only 10 finished in the green. In Europe, the German DAX is up 415 points to 24,206, while the FTSE 100 gains 75 points to 10,559. Bitcoin prices a solid rebound rising 4.45% above $71,000, lifting shares in the crypto world like COIN +5.65% as President Donald Trump warned banks against weakening his cryptocurrency agenda and pushed for passage of a market-structure bill known as the Clarity Act.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -403.51 points, or 0.83%, to 48,501.27
• The Nasdaq Composite slumped -232.17 points, or 1.02%, to 22,516.69
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -47.59 points, or 1.79% to 2,608.36

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll data for February
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb-final
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Feb-final
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEO ALTO AQST ARDT ATNI AVGO BULL CBRL CCRN CDLX CHPT EHAB GO HDSN ICCC IPI LUNG MG MX NNBR OKTA OOMA REI REPX RGTI SES SGHT STEM STUB TPVG VEEV

• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• RBC Capital Geothermal Investor Conference, 3/4 in New York
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• Latham Group (SWIM) Q4 EPS ($0.06) vs est ($0.08), adj EBITDA $10.5Mm vs est $7.04Mm on sales $100Mm vs est $96.79Mm; says to acquire Freedom Pools and sees immediately accretive to earnings, says will Ad $20Mm to net sales and $4Mm to adj EBITDA annually.
• Ross Stores (ROST) Q4 EPS $2.00 vs est $1.90 on revs $6.635B vs est $6.414B; comps +9%; guides Q1 comps +7-8% and EPS $1.60-1.67 vs est $1.63; sees FY comps +3-4% and EPS $7.02-7.36 vs est $7.21; raises quarterly dividend 10% to 44.5c per share

• Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.32) vs. last year loss (-$0.25) on revenue $417M, down $5M y/y; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA from Continuing Operations for the fourth quarter of $46M, down $5M y/y.

• Dave Inc (DAVE) to offer $150 mln convertible senior notes due 2031 in private offering.

• Rigel Pharmaceuticals (RIGL) Q4 EPS $13.54 vs est $1.25 on revs $69.8Mm vs est $68.7Mm; guides FY revs $275-290Mm vs est $283.11Mm and sees positive net Income for year.
• Staar Surgical (STAA) Q4 EPS ($0.37) vs est $0.06, adj EBITDA $0.00 vs est $13.53 on revs $57.8Mm vs est $75.37Mm, gros margin 75.7%; said Q4 net loss narrowed y/y; said growth in China drove overall net sales increase, despite inventory management challenges.

• Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Q4 adj EBITDA $56.284Mm vs est $51.12Mm on revs $341.446Mm vs est $335.2Mm; gross margin 31.72%.
• Box Inc. (BOX) Q4 EPS $0.49 vs. est. $0.34; Q4 revs $305.9M in-line with consensus; guides Q1 revs $304M vs. est. $295M ad FY revs $1.275B in-line with consensus; forecasts FY27 non-GAAP EPS of $1.55, including FX headwind.
• Crexendo Inc. (CXDO) Q4 adj EPS $0.09 vs est $0.08, adj EBITDA $2.8Mm vs est $2.52Mm on revs $18.1Mm vs est $18.1Mm.
• Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) Q4 adj EPS $0.30 vs. est. $0.23; Q4 revs $260.4M vs. est. $252.22M; board authorizes $400M for share repurchase program; guides Q1 and FY revs just below views; sees FY27 adjusted EPS $0.76-$0.80 vs. consensus $1.03 and sees FY28 revenue $1.099B-$1.118B vs. consensus $1.13B
• Nebius (NBIS) said it secures approval for its first gigawatt-scale AI factory.
• SentinelOne (S) appointed Sonalee Parekh as chief financial officer, effective March 24, tapping the former RingCentral finance chief as the cybersecurity firm faces intensifying competition from larger rivals. Parekh will join the company from work management platform Asana (ASAN).
• Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) Q4 adj EPS $0.00 vs. est. loss (-$0.15); Q4 revs $330.7M vs. est. $337.19M; sees Q1 revenue $317M-$327M or growth on a constant currency basis in the range of (1.5%) - 1.5% vs. est. $350.1M; sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA Margin in the range of 0.0% - 1.5%.
• Wix.com (WIX) announced a $250 mln equity investment led by Durable Capital Partners and provided a 2026 revenue growth outlook in the mid-teens percentage range; also posted Q4 revenue rose 14% y/y to $524 mln, slightly missing the consensus estimate of $527.82 ml

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, March 04, 2026

U.S. stocks looking strong after sliding on Tuesday as better economic data, and possible signs of a potential resolution to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran helped calm geopolitical jitters which have worried investors this week. Energy markets are lower as oil slipped on a New York Times report that Iran made a "secret" offer to the US to negotiate a deal to end the war with potential terms including, 1) Iran to abandon or drastically curtail its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, 2) Iran to abandon or drastically reduce support for proxy groups and 3) in return, Trump has "suggested" he would allow Iran’s surviving leaders to maintain power. Iranian media denied reports, but US markets pleased at the moment as sector names that got hit in recent days on the Iran conflict/surging oil are seeing a reprieve this morning. While things are looking good to start the day here in the U.S., one of the hottest stock markets, the Korean market just had its worst 2-day crash since the Financial Crisis as the KOSPI index plunged -12% on Wednesday, the largest decline on record, following a -7.2% drop on Tuesday. Other Asian markets fell as well with the Nikkei Index tumbling -2,033 points or 3.61% to settle at 54,245, the Shanghai Index dropped -40 points to 4,082, and the Hang Seng Index declined -518 points or 2% to 25,249. Data this morning showed ISM Services PMI came in at 56.1 in February, the highest since July 2022, and the 20th straight month of expansion as Business Activity (59.9), New Orders (58.6) and Employment (51.8) all accelerated. ADP Private payrolls also showed a gain above expectations. Bitcoin prices a solid rebound rising 7% above $72,800, lifting shares in the crypto world (COIN, MSTR, HOOD, etc.) as President Donald Trump warned banks against weakening his cryptocurrency agenda and pushed for passage of a market-structure bill known as the Clarity Act. Fear subsiding as the VIX index is down -12% to 20.60 after highs above 28 just a day ago.

• U.S. S&P Global February final composite PMI at 51.9 vs. est. 52.3 and U.S. S&P Global February final services PMI at 51.7 vs. est. 52.3.
• ISM report on U.S. non-manufacturing sector shows PMI 56.1 in February (above consensus 53.5) and vs 53.8 in January; business activity index 59.9 in February vs 57.4 in January, non-manufacturing new orders index 58.6 in February vs 53.1 in January, non-manufacturing prices paid index 63.0 in February vs 66.6 in January and ISM non-manufacturing employment index 51.8 in February vs 50.3 in January

• In Utilities: SO was upgraded to Sector Weight from Underweight at Keybanc with $76 tgt noting on valuation noting over the past 12 months, shares have underperformed the UTY and the shares have seen its historical valuation premium largely disappear. SO now trades in line with its large-cap, vertically Integrated peers. SRE was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus noting that the company leveraging its LNG and Mexican assets to improve utility infrastructure while also citing its success with value initiatives. AEP was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Ladenburg following its Q425 earnings call during which the company announced additional commitments for large load demand of 28 GW, up 100% from its previous disclosure.

• BW +19%; announced that it has received full notice to proceed on a $2.4B design-build agreement with Base Electron, an independent power producer backed by APLD, to deliver 1.2 gigawatts of new generation capacity.
• CANF +94%; after saying its investigational cancer drug, namodenoson, met the main goal of safety in a mid-stage study testing in previously treated patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; said the drug was well-tolerated in heavily pre-treated patients; no new safety concerns were seen.
• COIN +5%; among other big movers in crypto space (MSTR, HOOD) as Bitcoin tops $71,000, highest level in 3-weeks after President Donald Trump warned banks against weakening his cryptocurrency agenda and pushed for passage of a market-structure bill known as the Clarity Act.
• CRWV +5%; shares bounced after signing a multi-year deal with Perplexity to support its inference workloads on CoreWeave Cloud and pilot new services across both cos. As part of deal, CoreWeave will also roll out Perplexity Enterprise Max across its organization.
• MRNA +6%; agreed to pay ROIV up to $2.25 billion to settle claims that it infringed on Roivant’s patents with its Covid-19 shot. Roivant will receive $950 million and then another $1.3 billion if Moderna’s attempts to have parts of its liability offloaded to the federal government fail upon appeal.  
• ROST +7%; reported Q4 comparable sales growth of 9%, easily beating the consensus growth estimate of 4.9%, along with better EPS/revs for the quarter with strong comp sales of +7-8% growth for Q1 (Wells Fargo notes is a historical high guide) and EPS $1.60-1.67 vs est $1.63.
• SSRM +14%; after announced that it has entered into a binding memorandum of understanding to sell its 80% ownership stake in the Copler mine and related properties in Turkey for $1.5B.
• SWIM +36%; shares jumped on results as Q4 adj EBITDA $10.5Mm topped est $7.04Mm on sales $100Mm vs est. $96.79Mm and net sales forecast for the full year surpassed the average analyst estimate while announced the acquisition of Freedom Pools for about $17M.

• GTLB -9%; posted modestly better revenue and OM, driven by strength in enterprise, but saw some deal slippage; reported a 4Q beat but flagged N.A. softness & FY27 growth guide of 15-17% was below Street at 19%, while op margin guide of ~12% was well below Street at ~16%.
• INDI -19%; announced pricing private offering of $150 mln 4% convertible bonds (CBs) due 2031; initial conversion price of $3.87 represents 22.5% premium over stock's last close of $3.16
• MDB -2%; after results weighed on shares Tuesday carrying over to today.
• WBTN -6%; after results as Q4 revs of $330.7M missed consensus $337.19M; sees Q1 revenue $317M-$327M or growth on a constant currency basis in the range of (1.5%) - 1.5% vs. est. $350.1M.

Closing Recap

Wednesday, March 04, 2026

US equities faded overnight before popping back to green following headlines from a NYT story indicating Iranian operatives from the Ministry of Intelligence reached out to the CIA to discuss terms to end the conflict.  By mid-morning, stocks had extended gains and breadth favored advancers by just over 2:1 with small caps mixed versus large caps with IWM (+1.08%) versus SPY (+0.78%) and QQQ (+1.51%).  Sector performance was a little less bullish with seven gaining versus four declining.  Consumer Discretionary (+1.62%), Technology (+1.62%) and Communications (+0.83%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Real Estate (-0.34%), Consumer Staples (-0.61%) and Energy (-1.06%) paced the underperformers.  In sentiment today, the Fear & Greed Index dipped to 34/100 (Fear) from 45 (Neutral) last week and 47 (Neutral) last month but was up from yesterday’s 31.

In data of note today, who would have guessed: per @bespokeinvest, since the Iran attacks the XLE (Energy) is -0.05%, while IGV (Software) is +4.2%.  Outside the US, the South Korea ETF $EWY slid more than 10% yesterday.  Similar drops came only during Covid, the Financial Crisis and the dotcom bubble burst.  In bonds, @charliebilello noted the US bond market has been in a drawdown for 67 months, making it the longest in history by far.  Lastly on oil, stocks and Mideast conflicts, @DataTrekMB pointed out the 1990-1991 conflict showed the S&P bottomed the same day oil prices peaked.  Something to watch.

Heading into the final hour of trading, US equities held near highs as oil remained steady near unchanged while yields and the Dollar eased slightly.  Breadth expanded to about 3:1 in favor of advancers, with QQQ still outperforming both SPY and IWM.  Sector performance widened to nine gaining versus only two declining with Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communications as outperformers versus Energy and Consumer Staples in the red.  All eyes will remain on Iran, yields and oil for now so the potential for volatility remains elevated.

• U.S. S&P Global February final composite PMI at 51.9 vs. est. 52.3 and U.S. S&P Global February final services PMI at 51.7 vs. est. 52.3.
• ISM report on U.S. non-manufacturing sector shows PMI 56.1 in February (above consensus 53.5) and vs 53.8 in January; business activity index 59.9 in February vs 57.4 in January, non-manufacturing new orders index 58.6 in February vs 53.1 in January, non-manufacturing prices paid index 63.0 in February vs 66.6 in January and ISM non-manufacturing employment index 51.8 in February vs 50.3 in January

• April WTI crude futures gained modestly overnight but turned lower following NYT headlines indicating Iranian operatives may have approached the CIA to explore terms to end the conflict.  Further, some analysts now project the Strait of Hormuz flows to restart after just five days and be fully normalized in four weeks.  Also, today’s crude inventory data showed a larger build than anticipated and added to pressure on crude futures.  According to EIA, the US crude stockpile grew last week to its highest since September 2022, while west coast imports dipped to the lowest since March 2021.  Despite these more bearish factors, a late rally pushed crude back to gains with the April contract settling +$0.10/bbl, or +0.13%, at $74.66 (highest since June), while Brent crude settled at $81.40 per barrel, flat to Tuesday's close and at its highest since January 2025.
• U.S. Treasury yields climbed for a third straight session as investors weighed the potential risk of rising inflation and the path of monetary policy after the war in Iran elevated oil prices. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 2.2 bps to 4.079% and was on pace for its first three-day streak of gains since mid-January. The U.S.–Iran war widened after a U.S. strike hit an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, and NATO air defenses destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile that had been fired towards Turkey. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was incapacitated for a fifth day, choking off vital Middle East oil and gas flows.

• Off-price Retail: ROST reported Q4 comparable sales growth of 9%, easily beating the consensus growth estimate of 4.9%, along with better EPS/revs for the quarter with strong comp sales of +7-8% growth for Q1 (Wells Fargo notes is a historical high guide) and EPS $1.60-1.67 vs est $1.63. UBS reiterate its Buy and $193 tgt on TJX ahead of earnings saying they view the company as capable of taking major market share from Department Store peers over the next few years.
• Hardline/Broadline: TGT was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein and raise tgt to $116 saying the stock’s risk/reward is more balanced after the company announced initiatives across merchandising, stores, and labor, paid for by productivity measures. The stock was also upgraded to Outperform at Telsey with a $145 tgt to reflect its confidence in the company's strategy to drive growth.
• Food & Beverages: BGS shares jumped on earnings results as Q4 sales $539.6M topped the $536.65M estimate though EPS missed views and issued mixed FY guidance (EPS beat/sales below).

• In Leisure Products: in swimming pools, SWIM shares jumped on results as Q4 adj EBITDA $10.5Mm topped est $7.04Mm on sales $100Mm vs est. $96.79Mm and net sales forecast for the full year surpassed the average analyst estimate while announced the acquisition of Freedom Pools for about $17M.

• UBS raises their near-term oil price forecasts to reflect the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the current situation of the near de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. UBS raises Q126 Brent to $71/bbl, implying ~$80/bbl in March, and the 2026 average by $10/bbl to $72/bbl. This is based on the current base assumption that the conflict continues for the next couple of weeks and flows via the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted, amid ongoing attacks on GCC countries, but not on critical oil infrastructure.
• Liquid Natural Gas sector: QatarEnergy said it can't fulfill its contractual obligations to its buyers of liquefied natural gas because of attacks on its facilities. The company declared force majeure two days after it halted its plants' output following an Iranian drone strike on its facilities. Earlier this week the world's largest liquefied-natural gas producer shut down all its LNG production.
• In Utilities: SO was upgraded to Sector Weight from Underweight at Keybanc with $76 tgt noting on valuation noting over the past 12 months, shares have underperformed the UTY and the shares have seen its historical valuation premium largely disappear. SO now trades in line with its large-cap, vertically Integrated peers. SRE was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus noting that the company leveraging its LNG and Mexican assets to improve utility infrastructure while also citing its success with value initiatives. AEP was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Ladenburg following its Q425 earnings call during which the company announced additional commitments for large load demand of 28 GW, up 100% from its previous disclosure.
• In Power & Equipment: BW announced that it has received full notice to proceed on a $2.4B design-build agreement with Base Electron, an independent power producer backed by APLD, to deliver 1.2 gigawatts of new generation capacity.

• Financial Services: LZ was downgraded to Underweight (from EW) at Barclays and lowered PT to $6 from $9 saying dislocations persist, although broader Re-rating lower may be warranted as some signs of Ai risks materializing; notes some cracks in web Tools, but Ai risks were already priced in.
• Mortgage Services (RKT, Z, COMP, OPEN): Redfin noted for Real Estate investors, the West Coast is hot, and Florida is not as investor activity is sluggish on a National level, with purchases rising just 2%—but it varies widely from metro to metro. In Seattle, investor purchases jumped 37% y/y in the fourth quarter—the biggest gain among the metros Redfin analyzed. Orlando posted the biggest decline, down 16%.

• CANF shares jumped after saying its investigational cancer drug, namodenoson, met the main goal of safety in a mid-stage study testing in previously treated patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; said the drug was well-tolerated in heavily pre-treated patients; no new safety concerns were seen.
• MRNA agreed to pay ROIV up to $2.25 billion to settle claims that it infringed on Roivant’s patents with its Covid-19 shot. Roivant will receive $950 million and then another $1.3 billion if Moderna’s attempts to have parts of its liability offloaded to the federal government fail upon appeal.  

• In Heavy Duty trucking: shares of CMI, PCAR advanced after ACT reported February preliminary North America Class 8 net orders of 46.2k units increased 156% Y/y. February’s intake represents the eighth best order month in the 530 months ACT Research has been collecting data. Regarding medium duty, preliminary Classes 5-7 orders rose 6.7% Y/y to 17,400 units in February.
• In Metals & Mining: SSRM announced that it has entered into a binding memorandum of understanding to sell its 80% ownership stake in the Copler mine and related properties in Turkey for $1.5B. The entire $1.5B cash consideration is payable on the transaction's closing. Copler is being acquired by Cengiz Holding
• In Aluminum (AA, CENX): Benchmark three-month aluminium on the LME jumped as much as 5.1% to $3,418 a metric Ton, its strongest since April 2022. Spike in Aluminum comes after Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) stopped shipments, deepening worries about the impact of the Middle East conflict on supplies of the metal.

• Data Center/AI/Neocloud: CRWV shares bounced after signing a multi-year deal with Perplexity to support its inference workloads on CoreWeave Cloud and pilot new services across both cos. As part of deal, CoreWeave will also roll out Perplexity Enterprise Max across its organization; NBIS said it secures approval for its first gigawatt-scale AI factory. AMZN strength possibly related to Anthropic strong revenue run rates (Anthropic's annualized revenue has topped $19B, Bloomberg News reported. That's up from $14B just a few weeks ago when the Ai startup announced its $30B funding round.
• Software: GTLB posted modestly better revenue and OM, driven by strength in enterprise, but saw some deal slippage; reported a 4Q beat but flagged N.A. softness & FY27 growth guide of 15-17% was below Street at 19%, while op margin guide of ~12% was well below Street at ~16%.
• In Internet: WIX announced a $250M equity investment led by Durable Capital Partners; 4Q bookings/revs/FCF of $534.5M/$524.3M/$155.6M vs. consensus' $534.9M/$527.7M/$158.4M; FY26 outlook came in ahead on revenue/bookings, while FCF margins are impacted by expected Base44 growth.
• Data Storage: BOX beat across the board and provided a better than expected initial growth outlook for FY27 as closed out FY26 with another quarter of accelerating growth due to consistent upgrades from customers to Enterprise Advanced as they look to automate more workflows through Box.
• Video Game/Entertainment Software: TD Cowen said February video game data checks suggest that RBLX engagement is trending at levels that could put Q1 guidance at risk; trends at TTWO across console, PC, and mobile remain constructive; WBTN shares fell after Q4 revs of $330.7M missed consensus $337.19M; sees Q1 revenue $317M-$327M or growth on a constant currency basis in the range of (1.5%) - 1.5% vs. est. $350.1M; sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA Margin in the range of 0.0% - 1.5%.
• In Semis: AVGO reports earnings after the close; The Philly semi index (SOX) posted a nice rebound today after falling -4.58% on Tuesday in a rout in semiconductors amid a rotation into software (IGV) at least for Tuesday. INDI shares fell as announced pricing private offering of $150 mln 4% convertible bonds (CBs) due 2031; initial conversion price of $3.87 represents 22.5% premium over stock's last close of $3.16

Street Recommendations

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

• CME Argus downgraded CME Group to Hold from Buy. The firm is anticipating "muted growth" for the company's equity index, metals, crypto, and micro contracts from retail investors, though it sees these offset by gains in agriculture and prediction markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ADBE Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Adobe to $335 from $415 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the earnings report on March 12. The germ expects $460M in Q1 net new annual recurring revenue and thinks its estimate is beatable from tiering contribution and growing generative credit usage.
• BMRN Barclays raised the firm's price target on BioMarin to $105 from $80 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model to include Amicus and the Voxzogo indication expansion. It sees both as key value drivers for the shares.
• GTLB Barclays lowered the firm's price target on GitLab to $25 from $29 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. GitLab's guidance and commentary "reflect its mission to fix some of the mishaps the company has made over the last couple years," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes the company's "heavy investments" leave questions on return on equity.
• SWIM Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley raised the firm's price target on Latham Group to $8 from $7 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's fiscal 2026 outlook is above consensus with ongoing EBITDA margin expansion driven by "lean manufacturing and value engineering," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ONON Barclays lowered the firm's price target on On Holding to $57 from $60 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The firm says the company posted "outsized" sales growth and margin expansion. It recommends buying the shares on weakness.
• ZD Barclays raised the firm's price target on Ziff Davis to $45 from $34 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says "AI doomer-ism is creating over-shoots across all of consumer internet, and creating opportunities for value investors." Ziff Davis' agreement to sell its Connectivity division for $1.2B is the catalyst to "get things going," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• GTLB Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on GitLab to $60 from $70 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes GitLab's Q4 was a good quarter when taken on its own, delivering a nearly $9M beat vs. midpoint guide. But the company spoiled this good news with their fourth quarter in a row guiding below consensus for both Q1 and now FY27. Management emphasized FY27 guide was purposely 300bps weak as they removed FX tailwinds seen in FY26, assumed no remaining price increase benefit, and some unique customer clauses in large accounts that won't repeat.
• SE Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Sea Limited to $150 from $170 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. With EBITDA over three times higher, a healthier business mix, and an increasingly asset-light model, the recent share price correction might appear puzzling, the firm notes. With that said, Bernstein believes the sharp slide in Sea's stock appears more understandable when viewed against its 2026 outlook. This is shaping up to be a year of slower earnings growth not due to weakening market, competition or disruption, but rather because Sea is trying to widen its competitive moat.
• CRWD Bernstein raised the firm's price target on CrowdStrike to $368 from $353 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm says CrowdStrike's Q4 demonstrated their continued durable leadership in cybersecurity, and offered signals net new customer growth is finally re-accelerating. The quarter delivered a $10M revenue beat vs. midpoint guide, and $25M ARR beat vs. consensus. Looking to FY27, guidance revenue came in $30M-plus higher than consensus at the midpoint, and FY27 ending ARR an even larger $85M beat vs. consensus at midpoint.

• GM BofA analyst Alexander Perry initiated coverage of General Motors with a Buy rating and $105 price target. GM is the number one automaker by market share in the U.S. and this should continue given benefits from a more favorable environment for internal combustion vehicles, the analyst tells investors. BofA views GM as "a key beneficiary" of recent regulatory changes, which is enabling a mix shift to its most margin accretive trucks and SUVs and away from unprofitable EVs, the analyst added.
• F BofA reinstated coverage of Ford with a Buy rating and $17 price target. Ford is positioned to capitalize on the significant shift in the regulatory backdrop under the current administration, which should enable it to shift focus to its most margin accretive trucks and SUVs, the analyst tells investors. As Model E losses abate, and the company's high-margin commercial business stabilizes, the firm expects Ford to make progress toward its 8% EBIT margin guide from 4.8% in 2026, the analyst added.
• TGT BofA analyst Christopher Nardone raised the firm's price target on Target to $106 from $103 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Target is investing in its people, stores, and merchandise and the firm thinks the strategy management outlined "makes logical sense," but it adds that it thinks execution may prove difficult since the competition is also moving swiftly, the analyst tells investors after having attended Community Day at the company's headquarters.
• GTLB BofA lowered the firm's price target on GitLab to $58 from $72 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported "mixed" Q4 results. While the firm continues to think that GitLab is a long-term share-gainer and views the risk/reward as "attractive" at the current valuation, it revised its forecast to account for updated views on growth and profitability.
• BOX BofA lowered the firm's price target on Box to $33 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported "strong" Q4 results. While the firm notes that FY27 constant currency revenue growth guidance of 9% is a meaningfully higher starting point than initial FY26 cc guidance and suggests low double digit constant currency revenue growth is "within reach this year," it trims its target based on broader software market conditions that increasingly prioritize near-term cash flow generation.
• ADNT BofA reinstated coverage of Adient with an Underperform rating and $22 price target. In the current environment where automakers are prioritizing cost reduction, the firm believes Adient's exposure to a less profitable European region and idiosyncratic profitability headwinds will pressure its growth over-market and margins compared to peers, the analyst tells investors.
• LCID BofA analyst Alexander Perry reinstated coverage of Lucid Group with an Underperform rating and $10 price target. The firm expects more muted adoption of electric vehicles, which could restrain near-term production and deliveries given an unfavorable regulatory backdrop, the analyst tells investors.
• RIVN BofA reinstated coverage of Rivian with an Underperform rating and $14 price target. The firm expects more muted adoption of electric vehicles, which could restrain near-term profit improvements given an unfavorable regulatory backdrop, the analyst tells investors. Even in a more favorable regulatory backdrop, consumer adoption of EVs had been slower than expected in the U.S. given concerns on affordability, range anxiety, charging infrastructure, the analyst added.

• GTLB BTIG lowered the firm's price target on GitLab to $30 from $32 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's 16% FY27 growth framework was below consensus of 18.6%, though this was well-anticipated, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG adds however that the underwhelming FY27 operating margin framework and other metrics being relatively muted likely leave investors looking for more prior to stepping into shares.
• SRAD BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Sportradar to $24 from $32 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company has reported mixed Q4 results with revenue slightly below consensus estimates, due primarily to a EUR 6M FX headwind, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Regarding the Prediction Markets, Sportradar has also noted that they've begun to ink agreements with a subset of their league partners - NHL, MLS, UFC amongst others - to sell their data to customers, the firm adds.

• CRWD Canaccord analyst Kingsley Crane lowered the firm's price target on CrowdStrike to $400 from $515 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said CrowdStrike capped off FY26 with a record FQ4 featuring $331M in net-new ARR growing 47% year-over-year, up from $263M last quarter, bringing ending ARR to $5.25B +24% year-over-year, and marking the third consecutive quarter of accelerating net-new ARR growth. For the full year, the company crossed $1B in net-new ARR and delivered on the re- acceleration narrative that management has been articulating since last summer.
• GTLB Canaccord analyst Kingsley Crane lowered the firm's price target on GitLab to $40 from $70 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said its Q4 results featured a revenue beat of roughly $7M and a significant margin beat with non-GAAP operating margin of 20.5%, roughly 500bps above guidance. The quarter delivered the highest net new ARR in company history.
• PASG Canaccord analyst Whitney Ijem lowered the firm's price target on Passage Bio to $23 from $67 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated it model following the most recent update for its lead program FTD-GRN and FTD-C9orf72. The The company has responded appropriately with protocol amendments and, importantly, continued to enroll and dose patients across two cohorts.

• ARCT Citi analyst Yigal Nochomovitz raised the firm's price target on Arcturus Therapeutics to $8 from $7 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company said during its Q4 call that ARCT-032's third cohort has not encountered any safety and tolerability concerns, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi remains cautious, however.
• TGT Citi raised the firm's price target on Target to $117 from $110 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported a Q4 beat but its Q1 outlook was weak due to the timing of spending, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi sees a balanced risk/reward at current share levels.
• RIOT Citi says Riot Platforms' Q4 report supported its shift towards becoming a "power dense" data center platform. The firm says Riot highlighted growing momentum around monetizing its power footprint. Citi recommends buying the shares with a Buy rating and $23 price target.
• MRNA Citi analyst Geoff Meacham views Moderna's $2.3B settlement with Arbutus as not the best-case scenario of an outright win but better than feared. The news is likely to come as a relief to many investors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi thinks the settlement removes an overhang for the stock and keeps a Neutral rating on Moderna with a $41 price target.

• LBRT Goldman Sachs analyst Ati Modak raised the firm's price target on Liberty Energy to $30 from $26 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While geopolitical risks could create near-term challenges, there are early signs of dislocations which could present opportunities when compared to fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm does not expect current geopolitical concerns to meaningfully impact long-term customer plans as significant portions of the activity increases are structural in offsetting decline rates and increasing production capacity, the firm says.
• PTEN Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Patterson-UTI to $9 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While geopolitical risks could create near-term challenges, there are early signs of dislocations which could present opportunities when compared to fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm does not expect current geopolitical concerns to meaningfully impact long-term customer plans as significant portions of the activity increases are structural in offsetting decline rates and increasing production capacity, the firm says.
• NOV Goldman Sachs analyst Ati Modak raised the firm's price target on NOV Inc. to $20 from $17 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. While geopolitical risks could create near-term challenges, there are early signs of dislocations which could present opportunities when compared to fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm does not expect current geopolitical concerns to meaningfully impact long-term customer plans as significant portions of the activity increases are structural in offsetting decline rates and increasing production capacity, the firm says.
• FTI Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on TechnipFMC to $66 from $55 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While geopolitical risks could create near-term challenges, there are early signs of dislocations which could present opportunities when compared to fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm does not expect current geopolitical concerns to meaningfully impact long-term customer plans as significant portions of the activity increases are structural in offsetting decline rates and increasing production capacity, the firm says.
• ROST Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Ross Stores (ROST) to $244 from $214 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ross Stores delivered another strong quarter, gaining momentum across marketing, merchandising, and operations, and outperforming TJX's (TJX) Marmaxx for the second straight quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Growth was transaction-driven without increased marketing spend, alongside improving new store productivity, stronger merchandise margins, and confidence in faster store expansion, the firm says.
• GXO Goldman Sachs downgraded GXO Logistics to Neutral from Buy with a $68 price target.

• VMC JPMorgan downgraded Vulcan Materials to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $320, down from $335. The company's Q4 results came in well below expectations on weaker than expected margins due to tough comparisons and pricing headwinds from product and geographic mix shift, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan cites Vulcan's weaker than expected guidance, demand headwinds, and "rich" valuation multiples for the downgrade.
• SPXC JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa initiated coverage of SPX Technologies with an Overweight rating and $260 price target. The firm sees share upside from SPX's planned capacity expansions and growing exposure to data center demand. This should sustain "above-trend" organic growth over the next several years, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TARA JPMorgan initiated coverage of Protara Therapeutics with an Overweight rating and $27 price target. The company is advancing TARA-002, a lyophilized heat- and penicillin-killed preparation of strep pyogenes in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer and lymphatic malformations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes that as the replica of approved picibanil in Japan and Taiwan, TARA-002 is "highly de-risked" based on the clinical experience picibanil has collected in the target indications.
• GTLB JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on GitLab to $28 from $53 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company surpassed $1B in annual recurring revenue but its fiscal 2027 guidance is disappointing, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees execution risk for GitLab.
• CRWD JPMorgan analyst Brian Essex raised the firm's price target on CrowdStrike to $475 from $472 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the earnings report. The company reported "beat and raise and AI tailwinds in play," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan sees evidence that CrowdStrike has been able to leverage incentives, accelerate market penetration, and consolidate share with a "dominant best-in-class platform."

• DOW KeyBanc upgraded Dow Inc. to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $38 price target. The firm adjusted ratings in the chemicals space as part of a Iran war "commodities playbook." KeyBanc sees the war as a positive catalyst for U.S. petrochemicals. It sees "upside risks" to commodity margins over the next few quarters as rising crude oil prices lift the global cost curve. In addition, the conflict could temporarily tighten global polyethylene supply by 5%-10% amid low inventories in the chain, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As such, KeyBanc upgraded Dow and LyondellBasell.
• LYB KeyBanc upgraded LyondellBasell to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $73 price target. The firm adjusted ratings in the chemicals space as part of a Iran war "commodities playbook." KeyBanc sees the war as a positive catalyst for U.S. petrochemicals. It sees "upside risks" to commodity margins over the next few quarters as rising crude oil prices lift the global cost curve. In addition, the conflict could temporarily tighten global polyethylene supply by 5%-10% amid low inventories in the chain, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As such, KeyBanc upgraded Dow and LyondellBasell.

• IKT Ladenburg initiated coverage of Inhibikase Therapeutics with a Buy rating and $4 price target. The firm views Inhibikase's TKI imatinib approach in pulmonary arterial hypertension as "de-risked." IKT-001 is a remodeled prodrug version of imatinib specifically designed to improve tolerability, "thereby enabling successful use in PAH," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• NCLH Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Norwegian Cruise Line to $24 from $25 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Norwegian reported a Q4 beat, but weaker net yield guidance leads the firm to lower its FY26 and FY27 EBITDA estimates by about 5% and 4%, respectively.

• TGT Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on Target to $140 from $130 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after attending the company's analyst day. The firm overall walked away incrementally upbeat on the company's prospects and more confident in Target's ability to drive a return back to positive comparable growth. Further, Oppenheimer believes management is acting with more urgency lately, and at the event, it laid out aggressive plans to drive a return back to growth with numerous merchandising efforts and initiatives to improve the customer experience.

• DRTS Piper Sandler analyst Jason Bednar downgraded Alpha Tau to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $5. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade. The stock rallied after a "handful of minor fundamental positives," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper believes the next leg higher for the stock will require real revenue realization to be a near-term event. However, Alpha 's path to full commercialization of its DaRT technology is still at least 2-3 years away, contends the firm.

• ROST Telsey Advisory upgraded Ross Stores to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $240, up from $220.

• GTLB UBS analyst Karl Keirstead lowered the firm's price target on GitLab to $44 from $51 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. GitLab's growth outlook is in-line with estimates, but margins fell short, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ASTS UBS analyst Christopher Schoell raised the firm's price target on AST SpaceMobile to $85 from $43 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm expects revenues to multiply as the commercial launch nears, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ROST Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Ross Stores to $235 from $205 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company continues to hit elevated expectations, notably planning a 7%-8% Q1 comparable sales. Improvements to marketing, merchandising and stores are clearly working, Wells adds.
• GTLB Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on GitLab to $26 from $45 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q4 was better than expected, but the outlook was slightly below, with management viewing FY27 as a year of stabilization. Fundamental views are likely unchanged, and investors are more likely to revisit once execution uncertainty abates and AI revenues become more demonstrable, Wells adds.
• PLUG Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Plug Power to $2 from $1.50 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following a mixed quarter. The firm notes the company beat consensus on Q4 revenue and returned to positive gross margin. However, 2026 revenue growth guidance missed.
• TGT Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly raised the firm's price target on Target to $135 from $130 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Target delivered at its investor day. It pitched funded investment with above-consensus guidance that could be beatable if a few cards fall their way. Still long-term turnaround questions remain, Wells argues, adding that management's moves make sense. The firm believes 2026 setup remains favorable.
• SRAD Wells Fargo analyst Trey Bowers lowered the firm's price target on Sportradar to $24 from $26 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the market reacted negatively to Q4 results, due to lack of upside to the 2026 guide given the recent IMG Acquisition and some benefit from Prediction Markets. Core Growth remains strong at mid-teens and shares appear oversold, Wells argues.
• CRC Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on California Resources to $72 from $56 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company put forth a 2P valuation scenario with Q4 2025 earnings. Irrespective of oil price variance, resource depth in the context of normal permitting cadence establishes a new valuation dimension, Wells argues.
• KTB Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Kontoor Brands to $100 from $95 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes the Bear case has been laid to rest. Kontoor's material profit beat and bullish 2026 outlook should bring Bulls roaring back as the story gains credibility, momentum, and most notably, upward revisions, argues Wells, which reiterate the stock as "Top Pick."
• GDRX Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on GoodRx to $3.50 from $7 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm acknowledges that unexpected take-rate reset reflects structural headwinds for Prescription Tx, but it also supports Pharma Direct's growth formula. Near-term growth and margins are pressured, Wells argues.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for February

• Earnings After the Close: ACHR AIV ASAN ASTS BBAI CORZ CRDO DAVE GAIA GRRR HLIO HROW IHRT INGM JRVR LIF LMB MDB OUST PLUG QUBT RGR RIOT SGRY STNE SUPV TDUP TREE TUYA VTS

• Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACEL ARCT BGS BOX BRCB CRCT CRWD CYRX EOLS FTEK GTLB HRZN MEC NPCE ORN RIGL ROST RYAM SGC SSTI STAA SWIM WBTN

• Keybanc Emerging Technology Summit in San Francisco, 3/3
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI, for February
• China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for February

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll data for February
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb-final
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Feb-final
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEO ALTO AQST ARDT ATNI AVGO BULL CBRL CCRN CDLX CHPT EHAB GO HDSN ICCC IPI LUNG MG MX NNBR OKTA OOMA REI REPX RGTI SES SGHT STEM STUB TPVG VEEV

• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• RBC Capital Geothermal Investor Conference, 3/4 in New York
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Nonfarm productivity for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q4, preliminary
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEYE AKA ASLE COO COOK COST ERO EVC GAP GDYN GEVO GPRO GWRE III IOT MEOH MRVL NX OPRX PBR PRTS SOBO

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for February
• 8:30 AM Et                    Average Hourly Earnings M/M and Y/Y for February
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for January

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