Early Look

Monday, March 2, 2026

U.S. futures are trading notably lower after news that the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as President Trump said the attack was intended to ensure Iran could not have a nuclear weapon, to contain its missile program and to eliminate threats to the United States and its allies. Trump vowed military strikes will continue until "all our objectives are achieved." He said the assault had wiped out Iran's military command and destroyed nine Iranian navy ships and a naval building. The news sent shockwaves worldwide through sectors from shipping to air travel to oil, amid warnings of rising energy costs and disruption to business in the Gulf region. WTI crude oil futures rise $5 or 7.4% to $72 per Barrel (hit highs $75.33 per Barrel) and Brent crude prices rise 8.43% to $79 per barrel (hit highs of $82.37) as futures opened after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend, causing oil prices to surge and adding an unstable Middle East to a list of growing worries for equity investors. Precious metals advanced as well with gold prices +2.8% at $5,400 an ounce and silver prices rise 2.2% to $94.75 an ounce. Seeing shares of tankers/shippers, along with defense stocks, drone makers and precious metal miners all rallying, while the rest of the market looks lower, particularly sectors tied to travel, lodging and leisure as oil prices spike. Stocks were down last week and mixed for February as for the week, the S&P 500 fell -0.4%, the Dow fell -1.3% and the Nasdaq fell -1.0%. For the month, the S&P 500 fell -0.9%, the Dow climbed 0.2% and the Nasdaq fell -3.4%. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -793 points to 58,057, the Shanghai Index rose 19 points to 4,812, and the Hang Seng Index fell -570 points to 26,059. In Europe, the German DAX is tumbling -473 points to 24,810, while the FTSE 100 slides -103 points to 10,807.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -521.28 points, or 1.05%, to 48,997.92
• The Nasdaq Composite slumped -210.17 points, or 0.92%, to 22,668.21
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -44.93 points, or 1.68% to 2,632.26

• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for February…est. 51.8 (prior 52.6)

• Earnings After the Close: ACHR AIV ASAN ASTS BBAI CORZ CRDO DAVE GAIA GRRR HLIO HROW IHRT INGM JRVR LIF LMB MDB OUST PLUG QUBT RGR RIOT SGRY STNE SUPV TDUP TREE TUYA VTS

• Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• Treasury yields declined Friday as the 10-year yield fell below 4% for the first time since November. For February, the 10-year yield fell about 28bps to settle at 3.961%, snapping a 2 month streak of rising yields. The shorter term 2-yr yield fell 15bps this month to 3.377% and was down over -10bps this week to a 52-week lows (lowest yield since August 2022. Yield is off 67bps from its 52-week high of 4.052% hit Monday, March 17, 2025.

• Cruise lines (CCL, RCL, NCLH), Airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL), online travel (ABNB, EXPE, BKNG), and lodging (HLT, MAR, H) are under pressure as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted major Middle Eastern airports, including Dubai, grounding flights
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Melco (MLCO): Macau's gaming bureau reported February gross revenue from games of fortune in the region was up 4.5% year-over-year to 20.627B patacas.
• Chinese automakers (BYDDF, NIO, LI, XPEV) broadly recorded a sharp drop in sales in February as waned during the Lunar New Year month. BYD Corp. (BYDDF) sold a total of 190,190 vehicles in February, down 41% from a year earlier. That included 79,539 fully electric cars, a 36% decline from the previous year. Xpeng (XPEV) deliveries fell 50% to 15,256 units. Li Auto (LI) sold 26,421 units, 158 more than the same period last year, while Xiaomi, a relatively new entrant, said it sold more than 20,000 EVs in February. NIO (NIO) was the month's standout performer, posting a 58% jump in sales to 20,797 units.

• Drone makers AeroVironment (AVAV), Kratos Defense (KTOS), Draganfly (DPRO), Red Cat Holdings (RCAT), Ondas Inc (ONDS) are rising largely due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have increased demand for military and surveillance technologies. The conflict raises concerns about airspace security and logistics, making unmanned systems more valuable for both military and commercial applications.
• Shipping stocks are in focus as Iran appears to have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on the country. While that could cause oil prices to spike, it could be good news for shipping stocks, including Frontline (FRO) and DHT Holdings (DHT) said Barron’s. Other tankers/shipping stocks have already rallied this year including Nordic American Tanker Shipping (NAT), Scorpio Tankers (STNG) and Teekay Tankers (TNK) to reflect the possibility of this outcome https://tinyurl.com/mpemc8v8
• Hudbay Minerals (HBM) said it will buy shares of Arizona Sonoran Copper Company it does not already own for $1.48 billion. Each ASCU shareholder will receive 0.242 of a Hudbay share for each share held, representing deal value of C$9.35 per ASCU common share
• Equinor (EQNR) and its partners have discovered oil near the Snorre field in the North Sea and plan a "rapid and cost effective" development of the new reserves, the state-controlled operator said on Monday. Preliminary estimates put the size of the discovery, known as "Omega South Alfa," at between 25 million and 89 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent.

• Barclays (BCS), Santander (SAN), Jefferies (JEF) face potential losses following the implosion of little-known UK mortgage provider Market Financial Solutions Ltd, fueling concerns about wider losses among banks in the booming private credit industry per Reuters. Note other PE/credit market players such as APO, BX, CG, ARES, KKR, OWL and others have seen weakness to start the year given their credit exposure to software companies that have been widely impacted by the revolutionary changes in the AI space.

• United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR) announced that its long-term pivotal phase 3 ADVANCE OUTCOMES study met its primary endpoint, with ralinepag reducing the risk of a clinical worsening event by 55% compared with placebo in patients with PAH (hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI [0.33-0.62]; p<0.0001).

• Ericsson (ERIC) and Intel (INTC) have expanded their long-standing collaboration to accelerate the industry’s shift from 6G research toward commercial Ai-native 6G networks. The companies will work across compute, connectivity and Cloud technologies, spanning the core network, RAN and edge, with a focus on open, efficient and cost-effective solutions aligned with global standards.

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, March 02, 2026

U.S. stock futures traded down more than 1% overnight, along with losses in Asia and Europe amid geopolitical headlines after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran this weekend showed signs of sparking a widening conflict across the Middle East. Oil prices increased sharply overnight with gains of nearly 10% for Bent crude before paring gains as the biggest impact comes from a choke point at the Strait of Hormuz, where ~20% of the global oil supply flows through (there have already been indications of ships avoiding the region), as well as attacks on Mideast energy infrastructure. Gold prices jumped 2.5% to highs around $5,430 an ounce but have pared gains to around $5.350, while silver prices reverse down over -3%. However, as markets opened here in the U.S., the rally buying quickly got underway with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting big rebounds (Nasdaq more than 300 bounce off opening lows and the S&P more than 60 points), with shares of Energy, Industrials and Technology showing early strength. Shares of energy/oil, shipping/tankers and defense and drone companies were the biggest market movers to the upside this morning while airlines, lodging, transports, leisure lower amid the spike in oil and lack of clarity how long the unrest will go. Financials extending Friday’s artificial intelligence (AI) and recent credit concerns driven rout, as risk off sentiment extends.

• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 52.4 in February (consensus 51.8) vs 52.6 in January, prices paid index 70.5 in February (consensus 60.0) vs 59.0 in January, employment index 48.8 in February vs 48.1 January and ISM U.S. manufacturing new orders index 55.8 in February vs 57.1 in January.

• In Chemicals: RBC Capital said they expect the rising conflict in Iran/Middle East remains a focal point for nitrogen (MOS, NTR, CF) as the Country/region accounts for ~10%/~25% of global urea exports, with nitrogen equities potentially bid up this week on US/Israel missile strikes on Iran. Nitrogen business had not seen much disruption in the Middle East, with sales continuing to be made as normal, including ~500Kt volumes from the region being committed to the recent India tender, while prices had yet to price in much risk premium from potential conflict.
• Defense stocks GD, LHX, RTX, LMT, NOC shares rose given the conflict this weekend in the Middle East between the US and Israel against Iran and Iran’s counter attacks vs many Middle East countries. Drone makers AVAV, KTOS, DPRO, RCAT, ONDS, UMAC also rise largely due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have increased demand for military and surveillance technologies. The conflict raises concerns about airspace security and logistics, making unmanned systems more valuable for both military and commercial applications.
• Shipping stocks were in focus as Iran appears to have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on the country. While that could cause oil prices to spike, it could be good news for shipping stocks, including FRO, DHT, STNG, TNK, NAT and other names, though Barron’s notes many of these names have already logged big gains in 2026 thus far to reflect the possibility of this outcome

• CF +5%; as the rising conflict in Iran/Middle East remains a focal point for nitrogen (MOS, NTR, CF) as the Country/region accounts for ~10%/~25% of global urea exports.
• EQNR +6%; and its partners have discovered oil near the Snorre field in the North Sea and plan a "rapid and cost effective" development of the new reserves, the state-controlled operator said.
• LITE +5%; along with gains in COHR after NVDA said they will invest $2 billion each in both photonic product makers N to support the companies' research and development and manufacturing operations in the U.S.
• LNG +7%; of companies leveraged to the LNG market such as VG, LNG, TTE, WMB, NEXT, EQT saw strength after QatarEnergy has halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products due to military attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, said on Monday.
• NOC +3%; along with gains in other defense stocks LMT, LHX, RTX and drone names AVAV, KTOS, DPRO, ONDS, RCAT and others given the conflict in the Middle East with Iran.
• UTHR +3%; announced that its long-term pivotal phase 3 ADVANCE OUTCOMES study met its primary endpoint, with ralinepag reducing the risk of a clinical worsening event by 55% compared with placebo in patients with PAH

• AES -17%; shares slumped after agreeing to be bought for $15 per share in cash, below the Friday closing price of $17.28 by a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT in a deal valued at $33.4 billion.
• ELV -2%; shares were weaker after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services notified Elevance Health they plan to impose sanctions that would stop ⁠the health insurer from enrolling ⁠members in its Medicare Advantage prescription drug plans, a filing showed on Monday. The sanctions are scheduled to take effect on March 31, 2026
• PULM -33%; as announces termination of prior planned merger and continues pursuit of alternative merger opportunities.
• QURE -41%; shares tumbled after saying the FDA informed the company that data from an early- to mid-stage trial of its gene therapy AMT-130 for Huntington's disease would not support a marketing application for the treatment. QURE said received final minutes from a meeting held on January 30.
• UAL -3%; as transportation stocks, lodging, leisure, airlines see weakness given the spike in oil prices.

Closing Recap

Monday, March 02, 2026

After U.S. stock futures tumbled more than 1% overnight, and down even more for the tech heavy Nasdaq futures, market resiliency continues to astound as major averages recovered all of its losses to turn flat by early afternoon and into positive territory heading into the final hour of trading. Wall Street shook off news of the U.S. and Israel joint strikes on Iran over the weekend, jolting global markets and renewing inflationary concerns with oil prices jumping over 8%.  The jump in oil came following the attacks on Iran and subsequent retaliation from Tehran as investors fretted that the fighting would disrupt shipments through the Straits of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Markets bounced from the open until 3:00 pm, helped by expectations if the war is quick/doesn’t drag on, the inflation hit to economies would be temporary. However, in the final hour, reports from Iranian media reported Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander said that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran is to set any ship trying to pass on fire. That headline pulled markets off the highs as tensions in the Middle East remain high. Biggest moves on the day related to the Iran news were weakness in airlines stocks, cruise lines and other transports given the spike in oil; defense contractors (NOC, LMT) and drone stocks (RCAT, ONDS) were big winners as well as energy stocks (XOM, CVX) on the oil spike. Bitcoin prices found some footing rising around 5% back near $69K lifting some names (MSTR, COIN); optical stocks COHR, LITE advanced on strategic partnerships with NVDA. Outside of macro/Iran, it was relatively quiet.

• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 52.4 in February (consensus 51.8) vs 52.6 in January, prices paid index 70.5 in February (consensus 60.0) vs 59.0 in January, employment index 48.8 in February vs 48.1 January and ISM U.S. manufacturing new orders index 55.8 in February vs 57.1 in January.

• March silver prices fell -$4.40 or 4.8% to settle at $88.28 an ounce (off overnight highs $95.86). April gold prices rose $63.70 or 1.19% to settle at $5,311.60 an ounce (off overnight highs $5,434.10) in response to concerns of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. The US dollar was broadly higher against rival currencies, including a 1% move vs the euro which dipped under 1.17.
• U.S. Treasury yields shot higher after military strikes in Iran by the U.S. and Israel, followed by counterstrikes by Tehran across the Middle East, sparked a jump in oil and gas prices and raised fears about escalating inflation. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield surged 11.1 bps to 3.49% and was on track for its biggest daily gain since June 6. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury climbed 8.6 bps to 4.048% and was best daily rise since June.

• Chinese automakers (BYDDF, NIO, LI, XPEV) broadly recorded a sharp drop in sales in February as waned during the Lunar New Year month. BYD Corp. (BYDDF) sold a total of 190,190 vehicles in February, down 41% from a year earlier. That included 79,539 fully electric cars, a 36% decline from the previous year. Xpeng (XPEV) deliveries fell 50% to 15,256 units. Li Auto (LI) sold 26,421 units, 158 more than the same period last year, while Xiaomi, a relatively new entrant, said it sold more than 20,000 EVs in February. NIO was the month's standout performer, posting a 58% jump in sales to 20,797 units
• In Casinos & Gaming: WYNN, MLCO, LVS shares active after Macau's gaming bureau reported February gross revenue from games of fortune in the region was up 4.5% year-over-year to 20.627B patacas. DKNG announces plans to launch new super app, branded DraftKings Sports & Casino, bringing together sportsbook, predictions, casino and lottery into one seamless, integrated experience.
• Cruise sector: NCLH reported mixed quarterly earnings (EPS beat/revs missed), while the cruise sector saw a sharp decline in share prices (CCL, RCL, VIK) given the conflict in the Middle East sending oil and energy prices surging. Donald Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran could last for weeks and called on the nation’s leaders to capitulate

• Liquid natural gas (LNG sector): shares of companies leveraged to the LNG market such as VG, LNG, WMB, NEXT, TTE, EQT saw strength after QatarEnergy has halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products due to military attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, it said on Monday. Separately, VG posted better-than-expected Q4 earnings, though 2026 guidance missed analysts' forecasts.
• In Utilities: AES shares slumped after agreeing to be bought for $15 per share in cash, below the Friday closing price of $17.28 by a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT in a deal valued at $33.4 billion.
• In Energy sector research: Goldman Sachs added COP and LOAR to the US Conviction List, while removing HII, MSGE and VLO. For COP, believe the oil major is on the cusp of a positive free cash flow inflection over the next three years as it transitions from a long period of heavy project investment to boost its oil reserves into a new period of 'investment harvesting' characterized by major projects coming online and capex diminishing.
• In Energy stock news: CRC shares rose on results and after saying it expects 12% y/y production growth, averaging 152–157 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), supported by four operated drilling rigs and reports 2025 free cash flow of $543M, compared to $355M last year; EQNR said it and its Partners have discovered oil near the Snorre field in the North Sea and plan a "rapid and cost effective" development of the new reserves.

• Alt managers/Credit: The sector remains under pressure (ARES, BX, CG, OWLetc.) on credit exposure to software companies that have been impacted by AI concerns, while the broader financial/banking sector fell on Friday with the proximate cause of this latest sell off seems to be the collapse of UK mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS) amid allegations of fraud which sent JEF shares down 12% in the last two days because they have a modest exposure, Oppenheimer noted. Barclay’s downgraded OWL to EW from Overweight (PT to $11 from $15) and upgrade STEP to Overweight from EW (PT to $55 from $67) as revised ests and PTs across business development company (BDC) sector saying they think it remains too early to determine the real Ai impact.

• ASND said the FDA approved, under their accelerated approval program, Yuviwel, a treatment for the genetic condition that causes dwarfism. The approval is for children 2 years and older with achondroplasia with open epiphyses.
• EYPT announced the first patient dosed in both Phase 3 COMO and CAPRI global clinical trials of DURAVYU for the treatment of diabetic macular edeme.
• NTLA said the FDA has removed a clinical hold on the late-stage clinical trial for its experimental gene therapy for a heart disease. Last year, the company said the FDA paused its two main late-stage trials for the gene-editing treatment, nexiguran ziclumeran, after a patient died from severe liver complications.
• NVO was downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs following the disappointing result for the REDEFINE-4 trial, as the firm cut their expectations for CagriSema/Cagri mono across diabetes and obesity.
• PFE was upgraded to buy from Hold at Argus with $35 tgt, positive on the company's recent additions to its GLP-1 pipeline along with its robust programs in oncology and hematology, saying it has greater confidence in Pfizer's ability to grow the top and bottom lines in post-2028 period.
• PULM announces termination of prior planned merger and continues pursuit of alternative merger opportunities.
• QURE shares tumbled after saying the FDA informed the company that data from an early- to mid-stage trial of its gene therapy AMT-130 for Huntington's disease would not support a marketing application for the treatment. QURE said received final minutes from a meeting held on January 30.
• UTHR announced that its long-term pivotal phase 3 ADVANCE OUTCOMES study met its primary endpoint, with ralinepag reducing the risk of a clinical worsening event by 55% compared with placebo in patients with PAH (hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI [0.33-0.62]; p<0.0001).

• Animal Health sector: ZTS signed a deal to buy NEOG’s animal-genomics business for $160M, saying the acquisition bolsters its strategy to drive future livestock innovation through genomics. Neogen said it plans to use proceeds from the sale to pare its debt load.

• Defense stocks GD, LHX, RTX, LMT, NOC shares rose given the conflict this weekend in the Middle East between the US and Israel against Iran and Iran’s counter attacks vs many Middle East countries. Drone makers KTOS, DPRO, RCAT, ONDS, UMAC also rise largely due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have increased demand for military and surveillance technologies. PLTR was another defense related name that saw strength today. The conflict raises concerns about airspace security and logistics, making unmanned systems more valuable for both military and commercial applications.
• AVAV shares were up initially (rising around 18% with drone sector) before tumbling (down as much as -20%) after Raymond James triple downgraded to Underperform from Strong Buy saying the Space Force announced that it is putting the Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource program back up for competition. This was the company's largest program of record at about $1.4B of value, and AeroVironment had $2.8B of total backlog and contends this may erase $1-$1.4B of that total.
• Shipping stocks were in focus as Iran appears to have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on the country. While that could cause oil prices to spike, it could be good news for shipping stocks, including FRO, DHT, STNG, TNK, NAT and other names, though Barron’s notes many of these names have already logged big gains in 2026 thus far to reflect the possibility of this outcome https://tinyurl.com/mpemc8v8

• Steel sector: Wells Fargo raised price target on U.S. steelmakers as expects elevated price levels through at least Trump's administration. Wells raises PT on STLD to $210 from $190, NUE to $194 from $184 and CMC to $80 from $79 saying increasingly self‑sufficient U.S. steel industry, now shielded from imports by 50% tariffs, is positioned to maintain elevated domestic prices for several years. Raises 2026/27 hot-rolled coil forecast to $950 per short ton vs $875 and $900 per short ton vs $800, respectively.
• In Metals & Mining: HBM said it will buy shares of Arizona Sonoran Copper Company it does not already own for $1.48 billion. Each ASCU shareholder will receive 0.242 of a Hudbay share for each share held, representing deal value of C$9.35 per ASCU common share

• In Media: NFLX was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan with $120 PT after a prior period of restriction saying they believe NFLX remains a healthy organic growth story, driven by a combination of strong content, global subscriber growth, continued pricing power, & an early stage/under-monetized Ad tier. PSKY announced plans to issue $47B of new shares at $16.02 (19% premium to the stock’s closing price on Friday).
• Software: CRWD was upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at Piper after shares have slid -21% YTD given Ai-driven bear cases that have subsumed the narrative in Security, a move Piper sees as well overdone for a best-in-class Security platform with a durable track record of innovation and execution. KVYO announces $500M share repurchase program with $100M accelerated share repurchase. TWLO was upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen and raised tgt to $160 from $125 saying they see AI agents becoming a bigger part of everyday lives and says Twilio is a key enabler of AI-driven business-to-consumer engagements.
• Optical sector: NVDA announces strategic partnership with LITE to develop State-of-the-art Optics technology as Nvidia is investing $2B in Lumentum to support R&D, future capacity and operations. NVDA also announces a strategic partnership with COHR to develop Optics technology to scale next-generation data center architecture as Nvidia is investing $2B in Coherent to advance Frontier of advanced Optics technologies.
• Memory sector (MU): Keybanc noted inSpectrum released its memory contract pricing for the month of February. 8Gb DDR4 DRAM pricing was +7.7% M/m and +187% q/q, and 8Gb DDR5 DRAM pricing was +4.2% M/m and +128% q/q, while 512Gb NAND pricing was +12.5% M/m and +207% q/ q. KEYB views the February pricing results as positive for DRAM and NAND.

Street Recommendations

Monday, March 2, 2026

• PINS Argus analyst John Staszak downgraded Pinterest to Hold from Buy. The firm is citing the company facing obstacles to growth as retailers spend less on advertising due to tariffs while larger competitors like Alphabet (GOOGL) are able to spend more on AI tools, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Argus further notes that growing operating expenses have hurt Pinterest profitability and suggest that margins have little room to expand.

• JBLU Barclays upgraded JetBlue to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $7, up from $4. The firm says U.S. airline stocks are likely to face pressure from near-term Middle East tension. However, domestic U.S. fundamentals are improving, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays cites better U.S. fundamentals for the upgrade of JetBlue.
• NFLX Barclays reinstated coverage of Netflix with an Equal Weight rating and $115 price target. The stock's valuation in the near term should be supported by potential estimates upside as the company walks away from Warner Bros. assets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, Barclays believes Netflix's valuation is likely to "embed concerns" around the reasons for bidding on the assets. It sees risk to estimates beyond 2026.
• OWL Barclays downgraded Blue Owl Capital to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $11, down from $15. The firm views consensus estimates for Blue Owl as too high and says the stock is now closer to fairly priced on an earnings growth basis. While it remains too early to determine the real AI impact to portfolio companies, Barclays lower business development company related earnings on lower flow assumptions and realization, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• STEP Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish upgraded Stepstone Group to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $55, down from $67. While it remains too early to determine the real AI impact to portfolio companies, Barclays lower business development company related earnings on lower flow assumptions and realization, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays upgraded Stepstone, however, saying the company has less exposure to this trend. The share selloff since the end of January has created a more attractive entry opportunity, contends the firm.
• APO Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish lowered the firm's price target on Apollo Global to $131 from $158 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm revised estimates across the alternative asset manager group. While it remains too early to determine the real AI impact to portfolio companies, Barclays lowered business development company related earnings on lower flow assumptions and realization, the analyst tells investors in a research note
• ARES Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Ares Management to $138 from $190 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm revised estimates across the alternative asset manager group. While it remains too early to determine the real AI impact to portfolio companies, Barclays lowered business development company related earnings on lower flow assumptions and realization, the analyst tells investors in a research note
• BX Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Blackstone to $126 from $164 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm revised estimates across the alternative asset manager group. While it remains too early to determine the real AI impact to portfolio companies, Barclays lowered business development company related earnings on lower flow assumptions and realization, the analyst tells investors in a research note
• KKR Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish lowered the firm's price target on KKR to $127 from $136 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm revised estimates across the alternative asset manager group. While it remains too early to determine the real AI impact to portfolio companies, Barclays lowered business development company related earnings on lower flow assumptions and realization, the analyst tells investors in a research note
• CG Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Carlyle to $68 from $71 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm revised estimates across the alternative asset manager group. While it remains too early to determine the real AI impact to portfolio companies, Barclays lowered business development company related earnings on lower flow assumptions and realization, the analyst tells investors in a research note

• XOM BofA analyst Jean Ann Salisbury raised the firm's price target on Exxon Mobil to $151 from $135 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after the U.S. launched strikes on several targets in Iran. Estimates of Hormuz Strait closure impacts on near-term crude prices from a variety of sources range from $10-$20 per barrel, which the firm thinks is "warranted going forward," the analyst tells investors.

• RYTM Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Rhythm Pharmaceuticals to $140 from $141 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said its 4Q report was incremental following the company's preannouncement earlier this year. On the commercial front, IMCIVREE revenue increased sequentially, driven by growth in BBS points, and the firm is encouraged by the company's prep for the launch of IMCIVREE in HO ahead of the March 20 PDUFA goal date.

• CVX Citi raised the firm's price target on Chevron to $210 from $179 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees "strong valuation support" for global energy names due to the Middle East war. Citi upped price targets across the global integrated oil and gas group.
• COP Citi raised the firm's price target on ConocoPhillips to $135 from $125 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees "strong valuation support" for global energy names due to the Middle East war. Citi upped price targets across the global integrated oil and gas group.
• E Citi analyst Alastair Syme raised the firm's price target on Eni to EUR 20.50 from EUR 15 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees "strong valuation support" for global energy names due to the Middle East war. Citi upped price targets across the global integrated oil and gas group.
• XOM Citi raised the firm's price target on Exxon Mobil to $150 from $118 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees "strong valuation support" for global energy names due to the Middle East war. Citi upped price targets across the global integrated oil and gas group.
• SHEL Citi raised the firm's price target on Shell to 2,950 GBp from 2,700 GBp and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees "strong valuation support" for global energy names due to the Middle East war. Citi upped price targets across the global integrated oil and gas group.

• BROS Goldman Sachs upgraded Dutch Bros to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $75. The firm believes the market is underestimating Dutch's "fundamental strength and ability to compete amid an intensifying coffee landscape." The recent pullback in the shares offers an attractive entry into the "best-in-class growth story in all of US Restaurant space," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• COP Goldman Sachs analysts added ConocoPhillips to the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update. The firm believes the company is "on the cusp" of a positive free cash flow inflection over the next three years as it transitions from a period of heavy project investment. Goldman has a Buy rating on the shares with a $125 price target.
• HII Goldman Sachs analysts removed HII from the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update.
• MSGE Goldman Sachs analysts removed MSG Entertainment from the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update.
• VLO Goldman Sachs analysts removed Valero from the firm's US Conviction List as part of its monthly update.
• BABA Goldman Sachs analysts added Alibaba to the firm's APAC Conviction List as part of its monthly update.

• OKTA Jefferies analyst Joseph Gallo lowered the firm's price target on Okta to $105 from $125 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's survey of resellers showed consistency quarter-over-quarter, says the analyst, who sees upside to top-line results aided by stabilized go-to-market and early Agentic tailwinds.
• VAC Jefferies upgraded Marriott Vacations to Buy from Hold with a price target of $105, up from $52. The potential turnaround set-up under new management with a track record of proven execution is "highly compelling" given the stock's underperformance, the company's best in class assets and the current moment, where timeshares have proven stable and durable in a wide range of circumstances, the analyst tells investors.
• HGV Jefferies analyst David Katz raised the firm's price target on Hilton Grand Vacations to $50 from $46 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Timeshares have proven stable and durable in a wide range of circumstances, the analyst tells investors. However, while the firm believes the environment is supportive for Hilton Grand to continue integrating its acquisitions, namely Bluegreen and Diamond, and benefit from the gradual recovery in Hawaii, growth remains "modest," the analyst added.

• TTE JPMorgan upgraded TotalEnergies to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of EUR 75, up from EUR 63. The firm recommends adding to European oil and gas positions following the full-scale military strikes in the Middle East. These "represent a tail-risk scenario becoming reality," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says to buy stocks that offer oil leverage, production and resource longevity, and cheapening relative valuations under higher price scenarios.
• NFLX JPMorgan upgraded Netflix to Overweight from Neutral (NFLX) with a price target of $120, down from $124, after reinstating coverage following a period of restriction. The firm believes Netflix is a "healthy organic growth story," driven by strong content, global subscriber growth, continued pricing power, and an "under-monetized" advertising tier. JPMorgan expects elevated share repurchases in 2026 driven by the $2.8B Warner Bros. (WBD) termination fee and "a currently opportunistic" share price. The company's "well-insulated subscription-based model" supports a premium valuation, contends the firm.
• CIEN JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Ciena to $380 from $250 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is cautious into the the company's fiscal Q1 print due to supply visibility in the near-term to support the bull-case. However, it cites higher confidence in the sustainability of Ciena's revenue growth for the target boost.

• PGNY KeyBanc analyst Scott Schoenhaus lowered the firm's price target on Progyny to $28 from $32 to reflect lowered estimates, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported strong results, ending the year with another beat. The question now is whether 2026 will be the setup of 2024, where utilization suddenly slows or the setup of 2025, where utilization beats expectations. KeyBanc thinks Progyny should enjoy favorable utilization even if member base decelerates in the near term.
• RBC KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on RBC Bearings to $680 from $595 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Discussing the space, the firm says 2025's end market momentum was primarily a function of Data Centers and Aerospace & Defense, but it thinks demand may broaden in 2026. AI-themes naturally remain top of mind given rapid increases in WFE expectations to support the 2nm node transition and capacity additions for memory, advanced packaging, et al. Now, however, KeyBanc is seeing more positive signs around non-res construction, automation/robotics, global infrastructure, and general engineering.
• TTD KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Trade Desk to $35 from $40 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Last week's AdTech reports reinforced that AdTech is becoming more cyclical, the firm says. Trade Desk's decelerating gross spend growth will raise questions on macro vs. competitive impacts, but KeyBanc would argue this is now priced in.

• ZION Morgan Stanley upgraded Zions Bancorp to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $75, up from $70. The firm expects 180 basis points of positive operating leverage for the bank in 2026, above both the company's guidance and the 90 points consensus estimate. In addition, the stock has underperformed the group in 2026, making for an attractive entry point, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MELI Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on MercadoLibre to $2,800 from $2,950 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Logistics and marketing spending drive the firm's 2026 EBIT down 8% on margins of 10.1%, down from a prior forecast of 11.5%, but it adds that investments drive growth and says its long-term conviction in profitability remains.

• S Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on SentinelOne to $20 from $24 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm expects SentinelOne to report slight upside to Q4 results and potentially issue conservatively in-line initial FY27 guidance. Its quarterly channel checks indicate consistent competitive dynamics, with SentinelOne experiencing improved execution vs. plan and sustained traction across the MSSP ecosystem. Looking to FY27, Oppenheimer expects further momentum from cross-selling cloud, data, and identity modules into the existing EDR customer base, alongside growing interest in Prompt Security and Purple AI-bundled SKUs following positive initial customer interest.

• QSR Piper Sandler upgraded Restaurant Brands to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $84, up from $71, following the company's Investor Day. At the event, the team put together a compelling presentation and discussion, the net of which has the firm feeling like the stock is ready to enter a period of outperformance. While Piper doesn't want to get too carried away here, its instinct tells the firm that this event will probably mark the start of a sustained new chapter for Restaurant Brands, from an investment community perception and recognition perspective. For this to be true, management will have to execute on the plans it laid out, and Piper believes it mostly will, noting the stock is currently undervalued in that context.
• SPFI Piper Sandler analyst Stephen Scouten upgraded South Plains Financial to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $48, up from $45. The firm notes it spent time with management at an analyst update event and came away more upbeat about its position within the small cap TX banking landscape. The shares have underperformed marginally since Q3 2025 earnings, but after a couple of years of stagnant loan growth, Q4 2025 loan growth encouraged and the opportunity set in the Houston MSA continues to improve, Piper adds.

• KYMR Stephens raised the firm's price target on Kymera Therapeutics to $100 from $95 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Q4 results and the associated business update were in line with prior guidance and leave the 2026 investment narrative "largely unchanged," the analyst tells investors.

• TXG Stifel analyst Daniel Arias raised the firm's price target on 10x Genomics to $25 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following this week's AGBT conference in Florida, the firm tells investors that new product adoption for 10x looks "solid" and the competitive environment looks "favorable" within single cell.

• GTLB TD Cowen analyst Derrick Wood downgraded GitLab to Hold from Buy with a price target of $29, down from $56. The firm has concerns about GitLab's competitive risks from Anthropic Claude Code and OpenAI Codex. Anthropic and OpenAI are advancing at "breakneck speeds," the analyst tells investors in a research note. In addition, TD says its checks for GitLab "down-ticked." It now sees guidance risk when the company reports this week.

• SMTC UBS raised the firm's price target on Semtech to $105 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Commentary from Semtech's peer and supply chain during earnings supports a favorable setup, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The core picture in the data center looks very good while the analog/consumer segment results and systems actions could be an "X-factor," UBS argues.

• AZZ Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners downgraded AZZ Inc. to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $132, up from $127. The firm says its downgrade reflects strong recent share price performance despite lackluster 2027 guidance, more muted margin growth implied, and increasing paint competition from North America steel mills. Shares have risen over 29% over the past three months, outperforming the S&P, up 1%. Unlike steels, AZZ should not benefit from higher steel prices or take meaningful share from imports under Section 232 tariffs. Recent 2027 guidance was in line with expectations, and Wells remains cautious on its key end market, nonresidential construction, as starts in sq ft terms have been under pressure.
• UHS Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Universal Health to $212 from $235 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes results in Q4 were weak, primarily as the result of the Acute business. Guidance for 2026 in-line with consensus but requires stronger volumes / core growth than seen in 2025, Wells adds.
• IRON Wells Fargo analyst Derek Archila raised the firm's price target on Disc Medicine to $79 from $78 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes there is a good chance Disc Medicine can resolve bitopertin's complete response letter with the ongoing Phase 3 APOLLO trial and that the outcome of the upcoming Type A meeting will provide that clarity. Wells is positively biased into the update which is likely in mid-to-late April.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for February

• Earnings After the Close: ACHR AIV ASAN ASTS BBAI CORZ CRDO DAVE GAIA GRRR HLIO HROW IHRT INGM JRVR LIF LMB MDB OUST PLUG QUBT RGR RIOT SGRY STNE SUPV TDUP TREE TUYA VTS

• Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACEL ARCT BGS BOX BRCB CRCT CRWD CYRX EOLS FTEK GTLB HRZN MEC NPCE ORN RIGL ROST RYAM SGC SSTI STAA SWIM WBTN

• Keybanc Emerging Technology Summit in San Francisco, 3/3
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI, for February
• China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for February

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll data for February
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb-final
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Feb-final
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEO ALTO AQST ARDT ATNI AVGO BULL CBRL CCRN CDLX CHPT EHAB GO HDSN ICCC IPI LUNG MG MX NNBR OKTA OOMA REI REPX RGTI SES SGHT STEM STUB TPVG VEEV

• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• RBC Capital Geothermal Investor Conference, 3/4 in New York
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Nonfarm productivity for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q4, preliminary
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEYE AKA ASLE COO COOK COST ERO EVC GAP GDYN GEVO GPRO GWRE III IOT MEOH MRVL NX OPRX PBR PRTS SOBO

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for February
• 8:30 AM Et                    Average Hourly Earnings M/M and Y/Y for February
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for January

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