Early Look

Monday, September 28, 2026

S&P 500 futures fall -0.6% and Nasdaq futures down -300 points or 1% as oil prices surge and Treasury yields jump as the 10-yr yield up about 7 bps to 5.23% and the 2 yr around 4.92%. US WTI crude futures jumped more than 4%, reaching a session peak of $96.44 per Barrel due to halted peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. President Trump told reporters he had rejected the proposal as he prepared to board Marine One on Saturday morning. He also told advisors he plans to restart bombing Iran after the midterms on Nov. 3, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump is apparently skeptical of Iran's ability to meet his demands. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -485 points to 65,877, the Shanghai Index tumbled -6 points to 3,823, and the Hang Seng Index gained 132 points to 24,642. In Europe, the German DAX is little changed at 25,405, while the FTSE 100 is up 27 points to 10,722.  Overall a weak start to the week as tech and semi seeing early declines while energy and refiners see strength; precious metal prices tumbled on dollar/yield bounce.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 478.64 points, or 0.93%, to 51,828.62
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 129.34 points, or 0.48%, to 27,068.72
• The Russell 2000 Index edged higher 1.98 points, or 0.07% to 2,837.55

• Earnings After the Close: IDT IVA JEF MTN TRAK

• Bank America Future Car Conference 2026, 9/28
• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/28-9/30, in Scottsdale, AZ

• China posts weakest industrial profit growth this year, expanding 4.2% in August. For the first eight months of this year, profits at large industrial firms climbed 15.7%, easing from a 17.6% rise in the January-July period. The automobile manufacturing industry saw profits drop by 16% year on year.

• Royal Caribbean (RCL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with an unchanged price target of $299 saying the stock's 26% pullback since August 5 offers a considerably more favorable risk/reward; notes shares have fallen amid rising oil prices and concerns around the durability of Royal's yield growth.
• Sweetgreen (SG) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and raised tgt to $11 from $6, after meeting with management. The company's Cyclospora headwinds fading and its transformation initiatives beginning to materialize.

• Boeing (BA) has identified a 737 MAX software glitch that could cause an automated navigation feature to fail, prompting concerns about a potential safety risk while planes are landing. The glitch, which Boeing acknowledged, hasn't been publicly disclosed. It emerged from a cockpit software update and can occur when flight crews alter their planned flight path following a missed approach.
• Gold Fields (GFI) shares fall after Northern Star Resources (NESRF) rejected Gold Fields’ $27B takeover proposal, saying the offer materially undervalued the Australian gold miner. Gold Fields proposed acquiring Northern Star through a combination of 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 in cash for each Northern Star share, initially valuing the target at A$38.7B.
• Greenbriar Equity Group is close to a deal to buy aerospace and defense supplier Spectrum Control for more than $1.8 billion, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the talks..
• FTAI Aviation (FTAI) has acquired 27 Boeing 737-700 (BA) aircraft from WestJet, marking one of its largest aircraft transactions to date. Under the transaction, FTAI’s 2026 SPV, the second investment vehicle of the company’s Strategic Capital business, acquired 17 Boeing 737-700 aircraft on lease to WestJet in a sale-leaseback.
• TotalEnergies (TTE) said it was raising its Q4 share buybacks to $2.5 billion, up from $1.5 billion in recent quarters, and guided for a further step-up in production growth beyond 2030, reassuring investors of consistent growth despite the challenging geopolitical climate; also said it would buy back between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in shares in the first quarter of 2027 and increase its dividend 5%.
• The Trump administration is spending billions to expand U.S. and allied supplies of critical minerals as Washington seeks to reduce China's leverage over materials used in semiconductors, electric vehicles, defense systems, and advanced computing. The effort accelerated after China imposed export controls on rare-earth elements and related magnets in 2025 - WSJ

• MediciNova (MNOV) announced the topline results from MN-001-NATG-202, a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating MN-001 for the treatment of hypertriglyceridemia and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus.
• Zymeworks Inc. (ZYME) said it expects total revenue, including collaboration revenue from Yupelri, for 2026 to be between $278M and $292M vs. consensus of $311.7M; outlook 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be between $114M and $128M.

• China is signaling that some of its biggest technology companies may be permitted to buy Nvidia’s (NVDA) newly released RTX Pro 5500 chips, potentially opening another channel for the U.S. chipmaker in the strategically important Chinese market.
• Hut 8 (HUT) announced the closing of a $1.07B four-year senior secured revolving credit facility.
• OpenAI has paused training of its latest AI models after agents searching U.S. government websites behaved unexpectedly, according to the Associated Press. The company is reviewing several incidents involving agents gathering and distributing information beyond their assigned tasks, adding to scrutiny over AI safeguards and autonomous systems.
• Roblox (RBLX) was downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies with $38 tgt saying the stock's 30% rally post the Q2 results reflects an overly optimistic view of Roblox's 12 month bookings trajectory, and believes Roblox's improvement in U.S. and Canada user and bookings growth will be longer and more costly than the market expects.
• UiPath (PATH) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at DA Davidson after investor day. The company is leaning into its vertical go-to-market approach and leveraging more pre-packaged solutions to accelerate time to value for customers.

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, September 28, 2026

U.S. stocks stuck in neutral as Friday’s gains have been erased as the ongoing combination of higher oil prices leading to inflation concerns and surging treasury yields has weighed on investor sentiment as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to wreak havoc on energy markets. Late Friday, President Trump rejected Iran’s 7-day ceasefire proposal and has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, as per the WSJ. Iran insisted on Sunday that only diplomacy can solve the conflict with the U.S. and Israel, as per Reuters. Axios reported on Sunday that the president expects talks with Iran this week, as picked up by Bloomberg. Oil prices jumped this morning with Brent hitting highs near $109 before paring gains slightly and WTI crude gains. Treasury yields surge as the 30-year U.S. Treasury trades above 5.55% for highest levels since May 2004, last up 3.9 basis points at 5.541%, while the benchmark 10-year rises over 5bps to 5.24%. All else remains second fiddle, though there were another round of busy tech and AI related headlines today (Open AI, NVDA stock buyback, more below).

• Restaurant sector: BROS Reiterate Buy and $60 PT at Davidson as view -26% pullback over the past month as a highly attractive entry point; says while investor concerns remain centered on intensifying competition, QSR Beverage expansion, and the lap of last year's breakfast rollout, third party CC data and DADA's store checks suggest underlying traffic remains healthy. SG was upgraded to Overweight and $11 tgt at Wells Fargo saying while the past 6 quarters have been marked by a series of operational & demand-related challenges, mgmt delivered a constructive message last week.

• KOD +115%; after saying its experimental drugs Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted met the main goals of a late-stage trial in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration. Both drugs achieved vision gains at one year that were not inferior to aflibercept, the comparison treatment
• NVDA +2%; announces a $150B share repurchase authorization increase, boosting total remaining buyback capacity to $235B through FY28 and underscoring confidence in the long-term AI opportunity; the company also unveiled the Nvidia Open Agent Safety Platform, a software framework aimed at reducing risks associated with autonomous AI agents; also reports China is considering allowing select domestic firms to purchase Nvidia’s RTX Pro 5500 workstation chips.
• RCL +1%; was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Banks with $299 tgt saying they believe the stock's 26% decline since August 5 (with the SPX being flat) provides considerably more favorable risk/reward from current levels.
• SG +5%; was upgraded to Overweight and $11 tgt at Wells Fargo saying while the past 6 quarters have been marked by a series of operational & demand-related challenges, mgmt delivered a constructive message last week.

• CRCL -2%; announced on Friday that Jeremy Fox-Geen intends to step down as CFO after 5+ years in the role. Fox-Geen will continue to serve as CFO through the earlier of Dec 31, 2026.
• GFI -11%; after Northern Star Resources (NESRF) rejected Gold Fields’ $27B takeover proposal, saying the offer materially undervalued the Australian gold miner. Gold Fields proposed acquiring Northern Star through a combination of 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 in cash
• MDB -20%; after CEO CJ Desai steps down, Dev Ittycheria named interim CEO; Desai is leaving to pursue a senior role at Meta Platforms. MongoDB has begun a search for a permanent CEO and retained an executive search firm.
• RBLX -7%; was downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies saying the stock's rally post the Q2 results reflects an overly optimistic view of Roblox's 12 month bookings trajectory, and believes Roblox's improvement in U.S./Canada user and bookings growth will be longer and more costly.
• SNOW -3%; after announces proposed private placement of $3.5B of 0.00% convertible Senior notes; net proceeds to fund capped calls, repurchase 2027 notes, and general corporate purposes

Closing Recap

Monday, September 28, 2026

New day, same story as a surge in Treasury yields and energy prices pressure Wall Street sentiment, sending major averages and precious metals lower with no progress over the weekend between the U.S. and Iran. Markets remain on edge heading into October and mid-term elections in November while expectations are growing for additional interest rate hikes by the Fed (potentially in October) as inflation fears grow. Oil prices climbed but ended off their worst levels, while the concerns of AI are also not going away, pressuring tech/AI/semi stocks after reports this weekend that OpenAI is pausing training of its latest models after its agents went wandering around government websites and did more than they were asked. Market breadth and internals were poor despite major averages not falling to sharply as the Nasdaq with only 50 new 52-week highs vs 461 new 52-week lows today while the NYSE records 16 new 52-week highs vs. 422 new 52 week lows. NYSE breadth was more than 2-1 decliners favoring advancers while 8 of 11 S&P sectors were in the “red”. In deal news, the US and China announce a "30-for-30" trade deal, with each country cutting tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods. China's list covers 1,619 categories of American products, while the US list contains 77 categories of Chinese goods. China has also committed to importing at least 10 million metric tonnes of US coal in 2027 and 2028. The S&P 500 (SPX) was stuck around the 7,700 level most of the day.

• December gold tumbles -$152.80 or -3.54%, to settle at $4,168.40 an ounce while December Silver falls -$3.08, or -4.76%, to settle at $61.72 an ounce in another brutal pullback for precious metals. Gold traded to a more than seven-week low, as rising oil prices stoked inflation concerns and bolstered bets on tighter monetary policy, while a higher dollar and Treasury yields created further headwinds for the metal.

• Restaurant sector: BROS Reiterate Buy and $60 PT at Davidson as view -26% pullback over the past month as a highly attractive entry point; says while investor concerns remain centered on intensifying competition, QSR Beverage expansion, and the lap of last year's breakfast rollout, third party CC data and DADA's store checks suggest underlying traffic remains healthy. SG was upgraded to Overweight and $11 tgt at Wells Fargo saying while the past 6 quarters have been marked by a series of operational & demand-related challenges, mgmt delivered a constructive message last week.

• Hotel REITs: Raymond James reiterated their bullish outlook for the lodging REITs given the continued RevPAR strength in 3Q, and expectations for material increases to full-year 2026 guidance as we get 3Q earnings. Our 3Q26, full-year 2026, and 2027 estimates are all moving higher. They are making two ratings changes — upgrading PK to Strong Buy and downgrading RLJ to Market Perform.
• Marine sector (BC, MBUU, MCFT): Truist said United States powerboat retail volumes were likely down low- to mid-teens % y/y in August following future revisions and decelerated from July’s revised -8.7% reading: Our estimated range is based on the initial -17.6% y/y August result for units sold and our assumption of a positive LSD-MSD% revision to this initial result

• Industrials sector: MOD shares tumbled (dragging shares of VRT, EME, FIX, others) after comments about margins as sell-side webcast.
• Defense sector: shares of BA decline after the WSJ reported the company has identified a 737 Max software glitch that could cause an automated navigation feature to fail, prompting concerns about a potential safety risk while planes are landing. It emerged from a cockpit software update and can occur when flight crews alter their planned flight path following a missed approach.
• Space sector: SPCX shares rallied behind positive Wall Street analyst comments (DBAB, Evercore) while the company’s Starship rocket lifted off from Texas and reached orbit for the first time, with one of its engines down, making a risky bid to deploy its first batch of Starlink satellites.
• Metals & Mining sector: another rough day for gold and silver miners (AG, B, CDE, HL, NEM, AEM, PAAS, WPM) as surging treasury yield and US dollar weigh on metals prices; GFI shares also fell after Northern Star Resources (NESRF) rejected Gold Fields’ $27B takeover proposal, saying the offer materially undervalued the Australian gold miner. Gold Fields proposed acquiring Northern Star through a combination of 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 in cash. President Trump announced a Minnesota company's plan to build a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa.
• Chemical sector: German chemicals maker Evonik (EVKIY) has rejected a takeover offer of about €22.15 per share from larger peer BASF (BASFY) as too low, thee Financial Times had earlier reported. BASF, which said on Friday it had proposed a potential acquisition of Evonik, on Monday declined to comment on the size of the offer.

• REIT Sector: BRX is teaming up with investment management firm Everview Partners to acquire a set of shopping centers anchored by grocery stores in a deal valued at $2.34B. Under the deal for Slate Grocery REIT, Brixmor would acquire a portfolio of 23 grocery-anchored shopping centers for $636M.
• Insurance sector: RGA was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley saying ongoing medical advances, boosted by AI, should have a notable impact to life insurers and asset managers and create a structural earnings benefit to Reinsurance longer term as about 65% of the company's biometric exposure is tied to mortality risk in some fashion. HIG Hartford Fire Insurance Company and certain of its affiliates and National Indemnity Company (NICO) agreed to terminate their existing aggregate excess of loss reinsurance agreement, which provided asbestos and environmental adverse development cover reinsurance since December 31, 2016

• MIRM said its experimental hepatitis drug reduced levels of the virus in patients, meeting the main goal of a late-stage study. Mirum was testing brelovitug, an experimental monoclonal antibody that binds to the hepatitis B surface antigen, a protein found on the surface of the virus
• MNOV shares slipped after saying its experimental oral drug MN-001 lowered blood fats in a mid-stage trial involving 40 patients with fatty liver disease, high triglycerides and type 2 diabetes. After 24 weeks, triglycerides fell about 22% with the drug versus about 7% with placebo, but the difference was not statistically significant
• MRK said it paid $400 million upfront to China's SciBrunch Therapeutics, for global license rights to a preclinical cancer drug that targets tumors with KRAS G12D mutations. The deal is valued at $2.13 billion if all future milestones are achieved.
• NVO is increasingly marketing its GLP-1 drugs less as treatments for a chronic disease and more as consumer products for people who simply want to lose weight – STAT news.
• In vaccine news, a federal judge in Delaware on Monday rejected PFE, BNTX and MRNA’s requests to dismiss patent lawsuits filed against them by Bayer's Monsanto unit over the Messenger RNA technology used in their COVID-19 vaccines.

• Semiconductors: NVDA announces a $150B share repurchase authorization increase, boosting total remaining buyback capacity to $235B through FY28 and underscoring confidence in the long-term AI opportunity; the company also unveiled the Nvidia Open Agent Safety Platform, a software framework aimed at reducing risks associated with autonomous AI agents; also reports China is considering allowing select domestic firms – including ByteDance and BABA – to purchase Nvidia’s RTX Pro 5500 workstation chips
• Gaming software sector: RBLX shares declined after being downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies saying the stock's rally post the Q2 results reflects an overly optimistic view of Roblox's 12 month bookings trajectory, and believes Roblox's improvement in U.S./Canada user and bookings growth will be longer and more costly.
• Software sector news: MDB shares fell after CEO CJ Desai steps down, Dev Ittycheria named interim CEO; Desai is leaving to pursue a senior role at META. MongoDB has begun a search for a permanent CEO and retained an executive search firm. SNOW announces proposed private placement of $3.5B of 0.00% convertible Senior notes; net proceeds to fund capped calls, repurchase 2027 notes, and general corporate purposes. A Friday filing disclosed that Larry Ellison increased the number of pledged ORCL shares backing personal loans to 413M from 346M previously
• Software rating changes: DA Davidson downgraded four names in the software space, cutting PATH to Underperform with $10 tgt after attended UiPath Fusion and the accompanying Investor Day which clarified PATH's strategic Vision noting customer and partner feedback was mixed with push back on Ai pricing. MANH downgraded to Neutral noting shares +70% from lows in April vs IGV +42%, the stock trade almost in-line with 20%+ growth peers at 29x '27 FCF. BL downgraded to Underperform given expectations for incremental competition from Frontier Labs to remain a headwind. Lastly, PEGA downgraded to Neutral from Buy given expectations that recent competition from Frontier model providers will continue to limit upside to PEGA numbers near term.
• Quantum sector: IONQ Initiated at Buy and $60 PT at Bank America, the largest public pure-play Quantum company by revenue, with a Buy rating and $60 PO, supported by its Semiconductor-enabled path to scaling qubit count, broad customer Engagement and exposure across Quantum Computing, communications and sensing

Street Recommendations

Monday, September 28, 2026

• KIM Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Kimco Realty to $27 from $28 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the shopping center and mall real estate involvement trust group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Barclays expects "modest" beat and raise quarters for the sector based on a solid underlying fundamental backdrop, but it expects 2027 commentary to drive near-term sector performance.
• PECO Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Phillips Edison to $43 from $46 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the shopping center and mall real estate involvement trust group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Barclays expects "modest" beat and raise quarters for the sector based on a solid underlying fundamental backdrop, but it expects 2027 commentary to drive near-term sector performance.
• REG Barclays analyst Richard Hightower lowered the firm's price target on Regency Centers to $85 from $92 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the shopping center and mall real estate involvement trust group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Barclays expects "modest" beat and raise quarters for the sector based on a solid underlying fundamental backdrop, but it expects 2027 commentary to drive near-term sector performance.
• SPG Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Simon Property to $208 from $215 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the shopping center and mall real estate involvement trust group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Barclays expects "modest" beat and raise quarters for the sector based on a solid underlying fundamental backdrop, but it expects 2027 commentary to drive near-term sector performance.
• SKT Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Tanger to $41 from $42 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the shopping center and mall real estate involvement trust group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Barclays expects "modest" beat and raise quarters for the sector based on a solid underlying fundamental backdrop, but it expects 2027 commentary to drive near-term sector performance.
• LBRT Barclays analyst Eddie Kim upgraded Liberty Energy to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $27, up from $23. The firm believes political headwinds will push more AI spending towards behind-the-meter solutions, driving support for the emerging distributed power industry. More long term contracts will be signed by the end of 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays views Solaris Energy as the "premier means to play" the distributed power theme. It also sees "significant upside" to shares of Liberty Energy, warranting the upgrade.
• AESI Barclays analyst Eddie Kim upgraded Atlas Energy to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $14, up from $10. The firm believes political headwinds will push more AI spending towards behind-the-meter solutions, driving support for the emerging distributed power industry. More long term contracts will be signed by the end of 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays views Solaris Energy as the "premier means to play" the distributed power theme. It also sees "significant upside" to shares of Liberty Energy. Barclays upgraded Atlas Energy to neutral following last week's announcement with a leading frontier AI lab.

• NVST BMO Capital analyst Vik Chopra lowered the firm's price target on Envista to $26 from $29 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. At a conference last week, the management noted that it expects a roughly $10 million Q3 revenue headwind from a temporary distributor inventory drawdown ahead of China's first orthodontics volume-based procurement, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TDG BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on TransDigm to $1,400 from $1,525 and keeps an Outperform rating as part of a broader research note on U.S. airlines. With conflict in the Middle East persisting, jet fuel has climbed to $4.30-$4.50 per gallon, near spring highs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Demand also continues to hold across cabins and segments, giving airline room to raise fares, though at a slower pace than in April and May, the firm added.

• TFX BofA analyst Travis Steed upgraded Teleflex to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $158, up from $145. With a new management team and better execution, the firm sees upside to the Street's consensus forecast for organic growth and EPS forecasts, arguing that the growth potential is "not appreciated."
• RCL BofA upgraded Royal Caribbean to Buy from Neutral with a $330 price target. The "high-quality business" generates ROIC in the high-teens, EBITDA margins of nearly 40%, and has an investment grade balance sheet, the analyst tells investors. Royal is well positioned to capture further travel share and the recently announced investment in Sandals Resorts can generate outsized EBITDA growth, the analyst added.
• MMYT BofA lowered the firm's price target on MakeMyTrip to $60 from $71 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm expects MakeMyTrip to report a "soft" Q2, largely due to supply issues at domestic airlines and high fuel prices, the analyst tells investors in a preview.

• LITE Citi raised the firm's price target on Lumentum to $1,400 from $1,200 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes optical circuit switch is turning into a multi-year trend in AI optics. Citi sees an $11B opportunity for Lumentum and Coherent. It keeps a Buy rating on both stocks.
• FUL Citi lowered the firm's price target on H.B. Fuller to $63 from $75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's engineering adhesives volumes were challenged in Q3 due to chip shortages impacting electronics, particularly across cellphones, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• JHX Citi analyst Samuel Seow downgraded James Hardie to Neutral from Buy with a price target of A$42.50, down from A$49.80. With cost synergies brought forward and the load in of Boise/distributors, the firm thinks current consensus estimates "appear achievable," but that the risk/reward now appears more balanced ahead of "what appears to be an uncertain" second half of 2027, the analyst tells investors.

• MANH DA Davidson downgraded Manhattan Associates to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $210. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade with the shares up 70% from the lows in April. DA sees a more neutral risk/reward ratio for Manhattan at current share levels. Investors are pricing in "durable" 20%-plus subscription growth and giving the company credit for its category leadership in warehouse and transportation management, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PEGA DA Davidson analyst Lucky Schreiner downgraded Pegasystems to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $32. The firm believes recent competition from frontier model providers will continue to limit upside to Pegasystems' estimates in the near term. Commentary from service providers indicate enterprises are prioritizing frontier models when looking to automate new workflows, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As a result, DA sees downside risk to consensus estimates for Pegasystems.
• BL DA Davidson downgraded BlackLine to Underperform from Neutral with a $23 price target.

• RCL Deutsche Bank upgraded Royal Caribbean to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $299. The stock's 26% pullback since August 5 offers a "considerably more favorable risk/reward," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Deutsche attributes the selloff to rising oil prices and concerns around the durability of Royal's yield growth. Deutsche likes the company's joint venture with Sandals and believes the "math makes sense."

• FTV Evercore ISI initiated coverage of Fortive with an In Line rating and $60 price target. While the firm likes the improved focus and the shift to bolt-on M&A, and thinks management is "establishing a track record on conservative guidance," it adds that near-term earnings momentum is "relatively limited."

• KYMR JPMorgan analyst Brian Cheng placed Kymera Therapeutics on "Positive Catalyst Watch" while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares with a $140 price target. The firm believes the Phase 2b BROADEN2 KT-621 readout by the end of 2026 "will deliver what investors need to see on efficacy." The BROADEN2 is the key catalyst this year for the shares "with substantial upside potential," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says that if KT-621 can replicate Dupixent-like efficacy while maintaining a clean safety profile, the shares could move up 65%-85%.
• LLY JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Eli Lilly to $1,500 from $1,400 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the Q3 report on October 29. The company is positioned to again raise its guidance based on strong incretin trends, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says growth in Lilly's business remains driven by the ramp of the international obesity business as well as strong initial uptake of Zepbound in Medicare.

• MCD Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on McDonald's to $297 from $308 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm updated its model to reflect financial targets and incremental details provided during the recent investor day focused on the NEXT strategy.

• PCOR Piper Sandler analyst Billy Fitzsimmons assumed coverage of Procore with an Overweight rating and $68 price target. Construction remains a large, under digitized market, and Procore's ability to connect owners, general contractors, subcontractors, etc. creates network effects that should support continued platform expansion, the firm believes. The company's system-of-record position, breadth, proprietary project data, and integration into mission-critical processes also provide a degree of insulation from AI disruption. Piper sees a clear path to a modest rev growth acceleration in FY26, coupled with a more meaningful margin expansion story.
• TYL Piper Sandler assumed coverage of Tyler Technologies with an Overweight rating with a price target of $450, down from $491. There is a fair amount of inertia for Tyler's core customer base around IT modernization. The firm views these characteristics as supportive of durable growth and visibility, even if the company's exposure to public sector budgets and implementation cycles can create periodic variability.
• ILMN Piper Sandler analyst David Westenberg raised the firm's price target on Illumina to $305 from $225 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Pharma and biotech spend roughly $300B annually on R&D, and the discovery-services segment alone is close to a $20B market. The firm believes this segment can close to triple in the next ten years as functional genomics displaces slower, hypothesis-driven discovery. Piper also believes Perturb-seq would play a meaningful role in optimizing the discovery process, particularly as years of one-at-a-time discovery is collapsed into weeks.
• TXG Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on 10x Genomics to $80 from $47 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Pharma and biotech spend roughly $300B annually on R&D, and the discovery-services segment alone is close to a $20B market. The firm believes this segment can close to triple in the next ten years as functional genomics displaces slower, hypothesis-driven discovery. Piper also believes Perturb-seq would play a meaningful role in optimizing the discovery process, particularly as years of one-at-a-time discovery is collapsed into weeks.
• NKE Piper Sandler analyst Anna Andreeva lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $38 from $45 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares ahead of quarterly results. The firm tweaks up its Q1 2027 sales to in line with the Street on North America Wholesale but lowers gross margin and EPS given promotional backdrop intensifying as the quarter went on. For Q2 2027 and FY27, Piper is now 12% below the Street. With athletic footwear backdrop deteriorating in the U.S., EMEA macro under pressure and China in flux, Nike's recovery is taking longer, adds the firm.
• COF Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Capital One to $260 from $254 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm remains tactically cautious heading into Q3 earnings, while maintaining a constructive longer-term view.
• MTZ Piper Sandler analyst Dimple Gosai lowered the firm's price target on MasTec to $313 from $321 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Continued growth and positive book-to-bill are the baseline into Q3 EPC earnings, the firm says. Piper still sees upward revisions across both utility and hyperscaler capex, with 2027 estimates already moving higher before the year is in view. That said, investors are focused on data center pauses, and the firm's checks with management show no impact so far.
• PWR Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Quanta Services to $714 from $731 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Continued growth and positive book-to-bill are the baseline into Q3 EPC earnings, the firm says. Piper still sees upward revisions across both utility and hyperscaler capex, with 2027 estimates already moving higher before the year is in view. That said, investors are focused on data center pauses, and the firm's checks with management show no impact so far.

• RLJ Raymond James downgraded RLJ Lodging Trust to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The shares trade at a "less compelling" valuation after rallying 50% year-to-date, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James still sees additional upside in RLJ shares, but believes there are other more attractive risk/reward opportunities within the lodging real estate investment trust sector.
• PEB Raymond James analyst RJ Milligan raised the firm's price target on Pebblebrook Hotel to $20 from $18 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm reiterates a bullish outlook for the lodging real estate investment trust group. It expects continued RevPAR strength in Q3 and sees potential for "material" increases to 2026 guidance. Given the inflection in EBITDA, the stocks have "bounced off the bottom, though are still trading at reasonable multiples," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James still sees an additional 10%-20% upside for the sector from here.
• RHP Raymond James raised the firm's price target on Ryman Hospitality to $130 from $125 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm reiterates a bullish outlook for the lodging real estate investment trust group. It expects continued RevPAR strength in Q3 and sees potential for "material" increases to 2026 guidance. Given the inflection in EBITDA, the stocks have "bounced off the bottom, though are still trading at reasonable multiples," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James still sees an additional 10%-20% upside for the sector from here.
• ACHC Raymond James downgraded Acadia Healthcare to Outperform from Strong Buy with a $39 price target. The reflects limited near-term visibility into PLGL accrual dynamics rather than reduced confidence in its long-term cash-generation potential, as the next accrual reassessment is not until Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Underlying behavioral-health demand and profitability trends remain intact, supporting greater than 5% 2025-28E EBITDA CAGR and potentially greater than 6.5% through 2030, the firm says.

• RSKD Truist raised the firm's price target on Riskified to $9 from $7.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock's investment story still flies under the radar despite notable growth reacceleration and new logo traction extending beyond prediction market wins across diverse end markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company is well positioned to benefit from incremental ecommerce fraud and risk intelligence surface expansion with Muse or Instinct-type personal assistant flows, the firm added.

• PPL Wells Fargo analyst Shahriar Pourreza raised the firm's price target on PPL Corp. to $44 from $43 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm hosted PPL's CEO on a two-city NDR. PPL has executed on the regulatory front and now looks to Invitium and large loads in KY as growth engines, with an eye to potentially raising the EPS CAGR, Wells notes.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: IDT IVA JEF MTN TRAK

• Bank America Future Car Conference 2026, 9/28
• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/28-9/30, in Scottsdale, AZ

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Prices M/M for July
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20 city index M/M for July
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for September
• 10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job openings for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Services Index for September
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AIR CNXC

• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference, 9/28-9/30, in Scottsdale, AZ
• G2E Global Gaming Expo Meetings, 9/29-10/1, in Las Vegas
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Communications Infrastructure Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago
• William Blair Biotech Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago, IL
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for September

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Income M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index Y/Y for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for August
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q4-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP PCE Price Index M/M for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for Q2-final
• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance goods Trade Balance for August
• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Dallas Fed PCE for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BSET MU PRGS

• G2E Global Gaming Expo Meetings, 9/29-10/1, in Las Vegas
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Communications Infrastructure Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago
• William Blair Biotech Conference, 9/29-9/30, in Chicago, IL

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for August
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for September
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: NKE

• Monthly Auto sales data for September

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings for September
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for August
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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