Early Look

Monday, March 9, 2026

U.S. futures are trading lower given the meteoric move in oil prices last night, with WTI crude surging more than 30% at one point last night alone above $119 per barrel before paring gains this morning to around $102 per barrel (+13%), with airlines, materials and industrials seeing overnight weakness. S&P futures (Spuz) hit an overnight low of 6,584.50, more now nearly a 100 point bounce at 6,677, down about -1%. The sell-off in stocks followed a bruising stretch last week, where the S&P 500 fell -2.02%, the Nasdaq declined -1.24%, and the Dow fell -3.01%. For the Dow industrials, register biggest weekly percentage decline since early April 2025, the S&P 500 records biggest weekly percentage drop since mid-October and the Russell 2000 records biggest weekly percentage drop since early August. The declines came as inflation and recession fears rose amid a spike in energy prices. The biggest sector movers to the downside last week were some of the biggest winners in 2026, with Consumer Staples (XLP) -4.7%, Healthcare (XLV) -4.63%, and Industrials (XLI0 down -4.06%. Only Energy (XLE) was positive on the week rising +1.17%. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) went out at the highs into the weekend, +24.8% to 29.64 - highest since 4-23-25.

Oil prices have been a key driver for stock markets to the downside, with massive moves again last night as WTI crude rises 13% at $103 per barrel, but well off the overnight highs $119.48. WTI Crude oil jumps 17% overnight to $106.78 after futures for April jumped more than 12% Friday to reach $91 per barrel, its highest level since late 2022, and for the week posted an astounding 36% spike, its biggest weekly gain since the inception of the West Texas Intermediate oil contract in March 1983. Brent crude tops $107 per barrel after jumping roughly 9% Friday to hover around $93 per barrel to its highest level since late 2023. Overnight, WTI crude topped $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022. Commodity markets watching closely as OPEC nations reduce production as the war escalates between the U.S./Iran and supplies across the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for oil shipments, get disrupted. Over the weekend, we have output reduction beginning in earnest, with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. On the other, we have strikes on infrastructure, which in turn raise concerns about a lengthy recovery.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index plunged -2,892 points or 5.2% to settle at 52,728, the Shanghai Index fell -27 points to 4,096, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -348 points to 25,408. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average tumbled as much as 4,200 points, or 7.6%, to a two-month intraday low. In Europe, the German DAX is down -400 points to 23,186, while the FTSE 100 is down -134 points to 10,150.

A busy week ahead with several macro catalysts on the horizon (outside of the obvious U.S./Iran war), including a busy week of US economic data: February CPI, key for Fed rate expectations, trade balance, weekly jobless claims, the January core PCE price index, personal income, durable goods, and the second estimate of Q4 GDP. Federal Reserve policymakers are in a blackout period ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. China has an eventful week with February CPI and PPI on Monday, followed by January-February trade data on Tuesday. In corporate level news, relatively quiet though Oracle (ORCL) earnings are key for a software sector that has been trying to rebound on AI fears the last few weeks. Oracle shares fell late Friday after Bloomberg reported late day that the software giant and OpenAI have abandoned plans to expand a flagship artificial intelligence data center in Texas after negotiations dragged over financing and OpenAI's changing needs. The plan is part of the Stargate initiative, a project of up to $500B and 10GW.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -453.19 points, or 0.95%, to 47,501.55
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -361.31 points, or 1.59%, to 22,387.68
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -60.27 points, or 2.33% to 2,525.30

• Earnings After the Close: ARQ CASY CHRS FLNT HPE KRO LFMD MTN MYO NPWR RAIL RPAY STXS VOYG YEXT ZVRA

• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media, internet & Telecom Conference, 3/9-3/11, in Palm Beach, FL

• Coal prices jumped to the highest level since November 2024 as continuing military strikes in the Middle East pushed countries around the world to consider switching away from oil and gas stuck in the region. Newcastle coal futures, the Asian benchmark, soared as much as 9.3% to $150 a ton on Monday. That came alongside a surge in crude oil prices to almost $120 (watch shares of AMR, ARLP, BTU, HCC).
• J.P. Morgan downgrades mining & metal companies due to the projected impact of the war in the Middle East saying the conflict poses similar risks to those brought about by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which led to a contraction in global growth, a tightening of monetary policy and a 40% fall in European Metals & Mining companies' shares. The firm downgrades copper suppliers First Quantum, Antofagasta, Anglo American and Lundin Mining, citing a rise in inventory levels around the world.
• President Trump said on Friday that the largest US Defense companies have agreed to quadruple production of weaponry to reach "the highest levels of quantity." Trump says the US has a "virtually unlimited supply" of medium and upper medium grade munitions to use in Iran.

• Aquestive Therapeutics Inc. (AQST) made misleading statements about the progress of its FDA application for a new sublingual drug for anaphylaxis, an investor alleges in a suit filed Thursday.
• AtaiBeckley (ATAI) is in talks with advisors to explore strategic options for BPL-003, its lead psychedelic drug candidate, seeking at least $2B in a potential deal, Bloomberg reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter.
• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) announced that the US FDA has approved Sotyktu for the treatment of adults with active psoriatic arthritis.
• Hims & Hers (HIMS) shares surged following reports Novo Nordisk (NVO) plans to sell its weight-loss drugs on the firm's platform. Bloomberg News reported Novo and Hims were preparing to announce a new partnership suggesting such a deal would also likely resolve Novo's recent patent‑infringement lawsuit against Hims, following the firm's launch, and then cancellation, of a $49 copy of Novo's obesity pill. https://tinyurl.com/265pc7x2
• Pfizer (PFE) reports positive topline from Phase 2: tilrekimig (trispecific vs IL-4/IL-13/TSLP) hits EASI-75 primary endpoint vs placebo in moderate-severe atopic dermatitis. Placebo-adjusted EASI-75: 38.7% low, 51.9% mid, 49.4% high dose ; competitive vs approved biologics; monthly dosing potential.
• Roche Holding (RHHBY) shares fell after the company said a late-stage study for an experimental breast-cancer treatment missed its primary objective. The results of the clinical trial mark a setback which saw in the drug, Giredestrant, though, said there was still a path forward for the medicine.
• UniQure (QURE) shares surged on Friday as FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said that Vinay Prasad, who leads the FDA’s Biologics division, will leave the agency at the end of April. This is the second time Dr. Prasad is being pushed out; note the recent handling of UniQure’s Gene therapy for Huntington’s disease.

• Micron Technology (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), and GE Vernova (GEV) will be added to the S&P 100, replacing PayPal Holdings (PYPL), American International Group (AIG), MetLife (MET), and Target (TGT) before trading begins on March 23 as part of the index's quarterly rebalance.
• SiTime (SITM), Moog (MOGA), InterDigital (IDCC), Vicor (VICR), and CareTrust REIT (CTRE) will move into the S&P MidCap 400, while companies including Lyft (LYFT), Match Group (MTCH), and Molina Healthcare (MOH)will join the S&P SmallCap 600.
• Roblox (RBLX) must face a claim from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton alleging the platform made false statements about the features it put in place to protect children from adult sexual predators, a judge ruled Friday.
• Nvidia (NVDA)-backed artificial intelligence group Nscale was valued at $14.6 billion after ‌raising $2 billion in its latest funding round, ‌the British company said on Monday. The Series C funding ​round was led by Norway's Aker and 8090 Industries among others.

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, March 09, 2026

U.S. stocks are pressured again as surging energy prices overnight extend losses on Wall Street for stocks, metals & mining, transport stocks and consumer discretionary names, exacerbating inflation and recession fears as hostilities in the Middle East entered their tenth day. Geopolitical tensions deepened after Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ali Khamenei, as the supreme leader, signaling firm control of hardliners in Tehran. Crude prices shot up more than 30% overnight to just under $120 a barrel but eased as governments, including those part of the Group of Seven (G7) and Saudi Arabia, began discussions to limit the jump in energy costs through increased supply. The pullback in stocks and rise in oil comes after the S&P posted its worst weekly performance since October amid pressures from the evolving Iran war. European markets are down after a lower Asian session  (though finished well off the lows). Treasuries selling off again was the 10-year rises more than 5 bps early near 4.2% after jumping 17bps last week in a flight to haven bonds while the dollar extends its gains, pressuring gold prices. There are no major US economic data points today but picks up with CPI inflation data and PCE inflation data this week along with GDP. No major earnings today as most sectors are volatile given their impact from surging oil markets/supply concerns as shipping lanes stall.

• Airlines (AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV, ALK, ALGT) hit hard again given the surge in oil prices, as Deutsche Bank noted today hostilities in the Middle East are driving oil prices and more specifically crack spreads to some of the highest levels seen in decades. Year-to-date oil prices are up ~50% while jet fuel prices are up 100% - 125%. Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground 1,000s of Aircraft while some of the industry's financially weakest Carriers could halt operations.
• In Metals & Mining: Precious metal prices fell as the Mideast war fuels inflation concerns, dimming near-term U.S. interest rate cut prospects and boosting the U.S. dollar, and weighed on miners (CDE, AG, HL). J.P. Morgan downgrades mining & metal companies due to the projected impact of the war in the Middle East saying the conflict poses similar risks to those brought about by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which led to a contraction in global growth, a tightening of monetary policy and a 40% fall in European Metals & Mining companies' shares. The firm downgrades copper suppliers First Quantum, Antofagasta, Anglo American and Lundin Mining, citing a rise in inventory levels around the world. Most metals prices lower today.
• In Chemicals: RBC Capital upgraded shares of LYB (tgt to $82 from $51) and DOW (tgt to $40 from $29) to Outperform from Sector Perform saying they are more positive on the shares following the recent events in Iran. LyondellBasell has significant leverage to an olefins and polyolefins recovery, mostly due to constrained global supply, and for Dow, sees near-term polyethylene margin upside from supply and feedstock disruptions.

• DNTH +26%; shares jump after results and announcing an early “GO” decision based on an interim responder analysis in a Phase 3 trial of claseprubart in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy.
• HIMS +37%; following reports NVO plans to sell its weight-loss drugs on the firm's platform. Bloomberg News reported Novo and Hims were preparing to announce a new partnership suggesting such a deal would also likely resolve Novo's recent patent‑infringement lawsuit against Hims, following the firm's launch, and then cancellation, of a $49 copy of Novo's obesity pill. https://tinyurl.com/265pc7x2 
• LITE +8%; among four companies added to the S&P 500 index on Friday as COHR, LITE, SATS and VRT being added to the S&P 500 before trading begins on March 23 as part of the index's quarterly rebalance and replace LW, MOH, MTCH and PAYC
• LYV +6%; on reports the company settles a U.S. antitrust lawsuit which would reportedly avoid a forced sale of its Ticketmaster unit, a key demand of the lawsuit, but would include concessions on ticketing contracts and amphitheater use, according to Bloomberg News. Axios reports deal with U.S. Justice Department requires LYV to pay roughly $200 mln in damages.
• QURE +19%; shares surge a third day after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said last week that Vinay Prasad, who leads the FDA’s Biologics division, will leave the agency at the end of April. Prasad was an outspoken critic of U.S. drug and vaccine policies, lately on the recent handling of UniQure’s Gene therapy for Huntington’s disease. Other companies that are in the rare disease category such as CAPR, IRON, SRPT, and RARE rallied too.
• RLMD +35%; after saying its experimental bladder cancer drug NDV-01 helped most patients stay cancer-free in a mid-stage study as 76% of 48 high-risk patients had no cancer after one year; 95% showed a complete response at some point and no patients' disease worsened and none needed bladder removal surgery.
• TALK +7%; UHS said they will buy virtual behavioral healthcare company TALK at an enterprise value of around $835 million as TALK holders will receive $5.25 a share, a 10% premium to Friday's closing price.
• XENE +40%; after saying its experimental epilepsy drug, azetukalner, met the main goal of a late-stage trial, showing a statistically significant reduction in focal onset seizures; the late-stage study met its main goal, with a 53.2% median seizure drop at 25 mg and 34.5% at 15 mg vs 10.4% for placebo over 12 weeks and well tolerated

• CLF -7%; industrial metals and precious metals down given concerns about the economy on surging oil prices with AA, FCX, NUE, STLD also lower with gold/silver miners.
• GPOR -5%; after announces leadership team changes as John Reinhart resigns as President, CEO and director effective immediately.
• JEF -3%; was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley citing credit concerns due to the bank’s exposure to the bankrupt auto parts supplier First Brands and the failed UK lender MFS.
• OLMA -23%; shares fall on negative read throughs from RHHBY's overnight PR stating that a late-stage study for an experimental breast-cancer treatment missed its primary objective.
• RCL -5%; along with further losses in cruise lines CCL, NCLH as higher energy costs hit stocks.
• RHHBY -5%; shares fell after the company said a late-stage study for an experimental breast-cancer treatment missed its primary objective. The results of the clinical trial mark a setback which saw in the drug, Giredestrant, though, said there was still a path forward for the medicine.

Closing Recap

Friday, March 06, 2026

U.S. stocks end the day and week lower as a surprising jobs report and a spike in oil prices to highest levels in over 2 1/2 years was too much for investors to overcome heading into the weekend where the U.S./Iran conflict intensified on Friday and further disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting oil and other commodity supplies. Inflation fears and recession fears have grown the last few days given the massive sure in energy prices as U.S. WTI crude futures  climb over 12% today alone closing around $91 per barrel, the highest level since October 2023 on Mideast conflict. Lots of names were active this week on the surge in energy costs hitting discretionary names, airlines, truckers, leisure, restaurants, as consumer spending will likely be impacted. At the same time, energy stocks, chemicals, shippers, were among leaders most of the week. The U.S. said they will provide reinsurance for losses up to $20 billion in the Gulf region, to help provide confidence for oil and gas shippers during the war on Iran. Only Consumer Staples and Energy finished the day higher while Materials, Financials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary were the biggest losers. Technology stocks tumbled in the last 45 minutes of trading after the whole AI Infrastructure/Data Center complex fell sharply after Bloomberg reported that ORCL and OpenAI end plans to expand Texas data center site, while META is in discussion with developer Crusoe to lease the expanded site (shares of CRWV, BE, NVDA, IREN, RIOT, NBIS all tumbled sharply). Note CNBC later refuted to Bloomberg story, but stocks remains pressured. The VIX went out at the highs into the weekend, +24.8% to 29.64 - highest since 4-23-25.

The other big story today was the jobs data as the U.S. lost -92,000 jobs in February (the fewest jobs outside of a recession since 2003), far short of January's gain of 126,000 jobs and worse than the gain of +50,000 jobs that economists expected. The unemployment ticked slightly higher to 4.4% from 4.3%. Expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its June meeting increased after the jobs report, but that sent Treasury yields lower for the first time in 5 days and the dollar slipped. Recall the Fed trimmed its federal funds target rate range by three quarters of a percentage point last year to between 3.5% and 3.75% to help bolster a flagging jobs market while still keeping enough restraint on to lower inflation that has stood well above the Fed’s 2% target.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.02%, the Nasdaq declined 1.24%, and the Dow fell 3.01%. For the Dow industrials, register biggest weekly percentage decline since early April 2025, the S&P 500 records biggest weekly percentage drop since mid-October and the Russell 2000 records biggest weekly percentage drop since early August.

• January retail sales fell -0.2% vs. consensus -0.3%, while January Retail Sales Ex-autos unchanged, in-line with consensus; Jan gasoline sales -2.9% vs Dec -0.1%, Jan cars/parts sales -0.9% vs Dec -0.2%. Jan Retail Sales Ex-autos/gasoline +0.3% vs Dec +0.1% (prev unchanged). Jan Retail Sales Ex-gasoline +0.1% vs Dec unchanged.
• December business inventories +0.1%, in line with estimates. November revised to unchanged from +0.1%. Business sales +0.5% vs +0.6% prior. Retail inventories ex-autos revised up to +0.4% from +0.2%.

• Gold edged higher on haven demand as Middle East tensions escalated, but still posted a weekly decline, as inflation worries dimmed rate-cut expectations. April gold gained $80.00 or 1.55% to settle at $5,158.70 an ounce (down from last Friday closing prices of $5,247.90). The decline snapped a four-week winning streak, as fading prospects of interest rate cuts and a volatile dollar weighed on bullion. Front Month Comex Silver for March delivery lost $8.8660 per troy ounce, or 9.57% to $83.816 this week. Bitcoin prices bounced midweek, but right back down below $69,000 today and Ethereum below $2,000.

• U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday, dropping sharply after a government payrolls report fell well short of expectations and boosted views that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates at a quicker pace. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell -1.4 basis points to 4.131% after hitting a three-week high of 4.187% and rose 17bps this week. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, fell -4.5 basis points to 3.554%, after climbing to 3.631%, its highest since November 20…but rose 17.7bps this week.

• In Restaurants: DA Davidson initiated coverage of 14 restaurant companies across four key industry subsectors, with its favorite BUY-rated ideas being CMG, WING, and SHAK. They say given early signs of an improving industry backdrop and valuations near three-year lows, believes restaurant stocks are generally poised to outperform through the balance of 2026, though prefer brands with pricing power and lengthy development runways that can support robust long-term earnings growth algorithms.

• In Alt Managers/Asset Managers: BLK shares fell after the company limits withdrawals at flagship private credit fund following surge in redemption request. BLK's $26B HPS Corporate Lending Fund received withdrawal requests worth $1.2B in Q1, or roughly 9.3% of its net asset value. OWL shares fall after Bloomberg reported that the company has 36 million pound ($47.99M) exposure to collapsed UK property lender MFS https://tinyurl.com/2jc8s6z9 . Shares of peers such as APO, BX, CG, ARES, KKR saw early weakness.
• The default rate among U.S. corporate borrowers of private credit rose to a record 9.2% in 2025, according to a report Friday by credit rating agency Fitch Ratings. In its monitor of 302 companies with outstanding private credit debt, Fitch recorded 38 defaults among 28 different borrowers. The 9.2% default rate in 2025 follows a previous record 8.1% rate of defaults in 2024.

• In Insurance: PRU shares slumped after its Japanese subsidiary said that some workers assigned to contracted agencies improperly removed operational information and shared it with other employees. The co said 11 employees took operational information on 379 occasions at seven agencies and shared it internally.

• PACB downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays saying the shares have a "tough setup" over the near-term, and the firm sees potential for a demand pause in demand given competitive launches across the sequencing space.
• QURE shares posted a strong rebound
• In CRO Sector: Barclay’s made several changes in the Contract Research Organization space by upgrading IQV to Overweight from Equal Weight as sees upside to the stock's valuation and estimates saying its history of execution should give the shares premium valuations vs late-stage peers. MEDP was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight citing valuation for the upgrade. AVTR was downgraded to Underweight saying sees less upside to shares vs the group. Meanwhile, BMO Capital said shares of IQV, ICLR on CRO Ai-driven selloff appears overdone noting Ai fears have spread to the CROs, weighing heavily on valuations across the group over the last ~four weeks as concerns primarily center on theoretical MT-LT disruptions to revs.
• Medical Equipment: COO delivered Q1 results that finished in-line with Street's $1.02B (organic growth missed slightly) and beat consensus EPS of $1.03 by $0.07 on stronger-than-expected OM% while guidance was better but Piper noted offsetting these positives are other frustrating areas, namely new APAC challenges.

• In Airlines/Transports: it has been a rough week for the Dow Transports, with big declines in airlines (AAL, DAL, UAL) and trucking (CHRW, JBHT, ODFL) along with package delivery (UPS, FDX) as surging oil and gasoline prices threaten hits to earnings/lower margins. In airlines today, UAL CEO Scott Kirby said in CNBC interview he expects a "meaningful" hit to the carrier's Q1 results from surging fuel prices following the deepening war in Iran, even as travel demand remains resilient. If the conflict prolongs, the airline could see an impact in the second quarter as well, said Kirby at a university event on Thursday, the report said.
• In Shipping: DSX increased its all-cash offer to acquire GNK to $23.50 per share, up from its previous proposal of $20.60 per share submitted in November 2025. Also, SBLK said it has entered into a conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement to acquire sixteen vessels from DSX in deal valued at $470.5M, subject to Diana successfully acquiring all issued and outstanding shares of GNK, not already owned by Diana.
• In Aerospace & Defense: KRMN was upgraded  to Overweight at Piper and raising its tgt to $127 saying they see the company benefitting from a potential munitions Super Cycle where U.S. and Allies seek to rebuild 'magazine depth' for critical munitions by replenishing stockpiles, expanding production, and refreshing technology across a number of missile programs (following Iran conflict).

• Metals & Mining: Copper stocks FCX, SCCO, TECK came under pressure early following weaker copper prices due to high London Metal Exchange inventories. Copper was on course to shed 3.8% this week, its steepest dip since the week ended April 4, 2025. Precious metals prices rebounded given a pullback in the dollar/Treasury yields after the weaker jobs report raised hopes for a Fed rate cut by June.

• In Software: GWRE Q2 ARR growth of 22% to $1,121M beat guidance by 8M, above ~$7M avg beat over the last 8 quarters; NNARR of $58M in Q2 (vs $44M prior year) was driven by stronger-than-expected new sales. Total rev grew 24% Y/y in Q2 (vs 17-19% guide), driven by subs & support rev 33% Y/y, license rev decline of (7)% Y/y. IOT reported better Q4 results, beating across all metrics, highlighted by +30% ARR growth that accelerated slightly vs last quarter and saw NNARR growth accelerate for a third straight quarter.
• Semiconductors: the group was broadly lower after a massive run to start the year boosted the SOX to record highs a few weeks ago but has pulled back lately amid a rotation into beaten up software (IGV) stocks. MRVL a standout today behind better earnings/guidance as shares were upgraded by Citigroup, Bank America and Benchmark following their Jan Q beat with revenue of $2.22B (+7.0% q/q) modestly beating ests, driven by strong demand across the Data Center segment (+9% q/q), while Communications & Other grew +2% q/q; MRVL boosted Q1 outlook, with $2.40B revenue midpoint (+8.2% q/q) +4.9% vs its prior $2.29B estimate, with anticipated Data Center growth expected to continue leading. Memory stocks (SNDK, MU, WDC) shares tumbled late day after Bloomberg report that ORCL and OpenAI end plans to expand Texas data center site.
• Security Software: OKTA was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at BMO Capital given increased confidence in revenue growth durability and said believes identity management is critical for agent adoption, and it thinks Okta will be one of the companies that nurtures, and benefits from, agent growth.
• In Optical: after shares tumbled yesterday on better results and guidance, CIEN was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America and raised tgt to $355 from $260 saying after doing detailed analysis on the expected data center buildout, as well as following the recent spending outlook update by the Cloud Titans, the firm now believes its call was too early.

Street Recommendations

Monday, March 9, 2026

• ITT Barclays analyst Julian Mitchell initiated coverage of ITT with an Equal Weight rating and $220 price target. The firm views the company as a "premium" earnings "compounder." However, ITT's higher leverage will limit potential acquisitions in the near term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ORCL Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow lowered the firm's price target on Oracle to $230 from $310 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The firm says Q3 will be another quarter with a meaningful AI-driven revenue acceleration for Oracle. However, the ongoing ramp will likely also pressure margins from upfront costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• BNS Canaccord analyst Matthew Lee downgraded Scotiabank to Hold from Buy with a price target of C$110, down from C$118. Scotiabank still has areas to address in the Canadian P&C bank and Wealth Management, where it has generally lagged the group, says the analyst. While the firm previously believed that Scotiabank would close the P/E gap with peers to 5%, it now expects the discount to remain unchanged given the firm's "relatively modest" ROE expectations, the analyst tells investors.

• MU Citi raised the firm's price target on Micron to $430 from $385 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the February quarter earnings report on March 18. Citi upped estimates to reflect better memory prices year-to-date. The firm expects DRAM prices to increase 171% in 2026 versus 2025 on strong data center demand and NAND prices to rise 127%. As a result, Micron shares can sustain gains this year, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CAT Citi raised the firm's price target on Caterpillar to $785 from $760 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the ConExpo construction trade show indicated positive demand trends with a "significant pipeline of mega projects." Citi is positive on the rental space with machinery. It upgraded Terex and moved Alliance Laudry to its top sector pick. The firm continues to have a positive outlook for U.S. construction.
• DE Citi lowered the firm's price target on Deere to $625 from $675 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says the ConExpo construction trade show indicated positive demand trends with a "significant pipeline of mega projects." Citi is positive on the rental space with machinery. It upgraded Terex and moved Alliance Laudry to its top sector pick. The firm continues to have a positive outlook for U.S. construction.
• SNDR Citi upgraded Schneider National to Neutral from Sell with an unchanged price target of $27. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade following the stock's recent selloff. In addition, better than expected strength in truck spot rates year-to-date indicates possible earnings upside for the carriers versus shippers for the first time in three years, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• WERN Citi analyst Ariel Rosa upgraded Werner to Neutral from Sell with an unchanged price target of $34. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade following the stock's recent selloff. In addition, better than expected strength in truck spot rates year-to-date indicates possible earnings upside for the carriers versus shippers for the first time in three years, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• AAPL Citi analyst Atif Malik trimmed estimates for Apple's second half of 2026 to reflect higher memory prices. However, Apple can navigate the memory price hikes much better than peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nonetheless, Citi estimates 140 basis point of gross margin headwinds in 2026 in due to the 100% DRAM price hike in the back half of the year. It continues to expect 1.3% iPhone growth in 2026 to 246M units. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a $315 price target.

• GPN Goldman Sachs reinstated coverage of Global Payments with a Neutral rating and $88 price target. Following its acquisition of Worldpay, Global Payments is the largest merchant acquiring business in the world, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman says structural competitive issues in merchant acquiring has driven multiple compression in the industry. It sees share loss concerns capping Global Payments' opportunities for multiple expansion.

• PLNT Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Planet Fitness to $126 from $130 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes Planet represents a "compelling" intrinsic value opportunity post selloff, but acknowledges the catalyst path "may be less clear."

• RIO JPMorgan analyst Dominic O'Kane downgraded Rio Tinto to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of 7,220 GBp, down from 7,840 GBp. The firm says events in the Middle East bring risks that are not adequately discounted into the shares of European metals and mining stocks. The analyst reversed JPMorgan's previously positive view on the group and turns negative. It introduced a downside scenario for copper and iron ore as a new base case.
• CGNX JPMorgan upgraded Cognex to Neutral from Underweight with an unchanged price target of $55. The firm says the company's "rapid" margin improvement, cost initiatives, and expanding customer base warrant an upgrade to Neutral. Cognex's execution and a strengthening macro backdrop justify a premium valuation for the shares, positioning the company for further upside as sector rotation favors innovation and operational leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SNDX JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Syndax to $45 from $33 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The Phase 2 MAXPIRe data for Niktimvo in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is expected in Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that at current share levels, no value being ascribed for the Niktimvo IPF opportunity. Hence, the phase 2 MAXPIRe "card flip is essentially a free call option," contends JPMorgan. It sees the value of Revuforj and Niktimvo in the refractory commercial setting alone being in the high-$20s to low-$30s per share range.
• ERAS JPMorgan added Erasca to the firm's "Positive Catalyst Watch list" ahead of the initial Phase 1 AURORAS-1 readout for ERAS-0015 in RAS-mutant solid tumors, which is expected in the first half of 2026. JPMorgan sees a high probability of an upside scenario playing out. The analyst sees "multiple ways to win" in the initial ERAS-0015 update. In "win scenarios," the firm sees share upside into the high-teens to high-$20s per share. JPMorgan keeps an Overweight rating on Erasca and established a year-end 2026 price target of $24.

• BROS Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan lowered the firm's price target on Dutch Bros to $59 from $63 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the stock is currently down about 16% year-to-date despite reporting strong results and providing solid guidance, which it thinks is a dynamic that has some in the Investment Community "searching for answers" as to what is causing said underperformance. While Piper heard upcoming competitor product launches get cited as a contributing reason here, and it doesn't doubt that this factor has played a role, the firm is not sure that would logically explain all of it.
• CPB Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Campbell's to $28 from $34 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says Campbell's operating environment is tough, with continued pressure on retail volumes suggesting the company may need to make price adjustments like its peers have made, and/or increase brand spending. However, with pressure on its shares, these expectations may already be priced in. Piper expects the quarter itself to likely be in-line with its estimate and consensus for 57c EPS and about $2.6B in revenue.

• LYB RBC Capital upgraded LyondellBasell to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $82, up from $51. The firm is more positive on the shares following the recent events in Iran. LyondellBasell has significant leverage to an olefins and polyolefins recovery, mostly due to constrained global supply, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC believes the company's recent dividend cut "de-risks the stock and positions it well for a recovery."
• DOW RBC Capital upgraded Dow Inc. to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $40, up from $29. The firm is more positive on the stock given the recent events in Iran. It sees near-term polyethylene margin upside from "material" supply and feedstock disruptions. Market tightness could result in a sustained margin uplift, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• QURE RBC Capital analyst Luca Issi upgraded uniQure to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $35, up from $11. Vinay Prasad is now leaving the FDA and this is a positive for uniQure "as it is not inconceivable" that the FDA reverts to its prior stance, the analyst tells investors. However, the firm also notes that the FDA Commissioner has also criticized uniQure and while Dr. Prasad is leaving, Dr. Makary is not. The firm believes that Prasad's departure is likely to open up a more balanced discussion on risk/reward for Huntington's and thinks there's now a 50% chance that the drug ultimately gets approved, the analyst added.
• WLTH RBC Capital analyst Daniel Perlin lowered the firm's price target on Wealthfront to $14 from $17 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The company typically does not provide formal guidance but it did provide monthly metrics for platform assets for November and December, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds it is reducing its FY26 platform assets estimate to $94.2B from $95.5B.

• SMTC Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland raised the firm's price target on Semtech to $100 from $90 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm previewed its results and said they expect generally slightly better results/guidance, driven by better FiberEdge from the rapid inflection in 800G transceiver shipments. In addition, they believe the ACC/LE opportunity has materially expanded intra-quarter.
• MU Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini raised the firm's price target on Micron to $525 from $345 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm updated its model heading into the company's results. They are raising estimates and initiating 2028 forecasts to reflect stronger pricing trends; DRAM and NAND ASPs quarter-to-date are tracking meaningfully above the firm's January expectations and this trend is expected to sustain into 2Q26. There are also diverging ASP trajectories as they expect DRAM ASPs to outperform NAND in 1H26 but underperform in 2H26.

• GCO Truist lowered the firm's price target on Genesco to $32 from $38 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after its "solid" Q4 results. The company's Journeys group continues to generate strong momentum with premium product assortments fueling higher average sales prices and robust full-priced selling, though the firm remains cautious on the choppy macro, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PDM Truist analyst Michael Lewis lowered the firm's price target on Piedmont Office Realty to $10 from $11 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is updating its model but believes the company's FFO and cash flow likely bottomed in 2025, also noting that Piedmont Realty has the largest gap between leased occupancy and commenced rent-paying occupancy, with no debt maturities until 2028, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• HTHT UBS upgraded H World to Buy from Neutral with a $62.40 price target. The firm increased the company's RevPAR estimates to reflect mix improvement and higher margin expectations after H World's 2025 cost controls. UBS is positive on the company's structural move to more new hotels and mid- and upper-mid-scale hotels. H World trades at a valuation below the global peer average, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• M UBS raised the firm's price target on Macy's to $9 from $8 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm's channel checks suggest sales trends in Q4 were better than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Macy's FY26 and Q1 EPS guidance are likely to bracket consensus estimates and this will likely meet market expectations, the firm adds.
• LULU UBS analyst Jay Sole lowered the firm's price target on Lululemon to $189 from $206 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm's checks suggest Lululemon's Q1-to-date U.S. trends have been "lackluster" despite improvement in the level of newness in the product assortment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• WAL Wells Fargo upgraded Western Alliance to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $79, down from $83. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade with the recent selloff bringing Western Alliance closer to its tangible book value. After the bank's recent missteps, the stock is undervalued, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells is also positive on Western Alliance's new CFO.
• QURE Wells Fargo upgraded uniQure to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $60 price target.

• EAT Wolfe Research upgraded Brinker to Outperform from Peer Perform with an $184 price target after assuming coverage of the name. The firm says Brinker's Chili's unit has "earned value credibility" and its traffic has outperformed.
• PTLO Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Portillo's with a Peer Perform rating and no price target. Given the Texas market is "still undercooked," comps are in the red and the turnaround's proof points are still 12-plus months away, "we're not ready to order yet," the analyst tells investors.
• WING Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Wingstop with an Outperform rating and $320 price target. Best-in-class unit growth is fueled by franchisees with the capital and conviction to keep building despite a softer comp backdrop in 2025, which the firm finds "encouraging," the analyst tells investors.
• BROS Wolfe Research analyst Margaret-May Binshtok initiated coverage of Dutch Bros with an Outperform rating and $77 price target. The nationally scaling brand has a clear path for mid-teens percentage unit growth and "no shortage of levers" to sustain consistent comp momentum into 2026, the analyst tells investors.
• SG Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Sweetgreen with a Peer Perform rating and no price target. A sluggish backdrop and value perception headwinds linger, while traffic initiatives need to stick before margins recover, the analyst tells investors.
• SHAK Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Shake Shack with an Outperform rating and $118 price target. Comps should get a lift from "low-hanging fruit" in the near-term, while ex-urban markets are working despite skepticism, says the analyst, who calls this "a signal that's been difficult to see through the NYC noise."

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: ARQ CASY CHRS FLNT HPE KRO LFMD MTN MYO NPWR RAIL RPAY STXS VOYG YEXT ZVRA

• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media, internet & Telecom Conference, 3/9-3/11, in Palm Beach, FL

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for February
• 12:00 PM ET WASDE crop report
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $58B in 30 year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ASM AVAV BBCP BODI CDRE DOMO EVLV FNV FOA GRPN IDT JOYY LDI NATR ORCL SO SIGA WEST

• Cantor Technology Conference, 3/10-3/11
• Citizens Life Sciences Conference, 3/10, in Miami, FL
• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media, internet & Telecom Conference, 3/9-3/11, in Palm Beach, FL
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Financials Conference, 3/10-3/11, in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI, Ex: Food & Energy M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI, Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $42B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal Budget for February

• Earnings After the Close: ARIS ASTL BMBL CDXS CINT CURI DMRC DSGC DSP FOSL FTK HPK NOA NTSK NVGS ODC PATH SFIX SID TBBB TLYS TTGT VEL WLTH WOOF

• Cantor Technology Conference, 3/10-3/11
• Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media, internet & Telecom Conference, 3/9-3/11, in Palm Beach, FL
• RBC Capital 2026 Global Financials Conference, 3/10-3/11, in New York
• Stifel NYC technology 1-on-1 Conference, 3/11 in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET U.S. Treasury to sell $25B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ABX ADBE ALLO ANGX AOUT APEI AVO BZFD CVGW EVCM FNKO GDOT HCAT JCAP JYNT KRMD KRT LEN LMNR LOCO LPRO MAPS MNR NKTR OFRM PD PXLW QRHC RBRK RWAY S SKIN RBCH TTAN ULTA VERI VUZI VXRT WPM ZUMZ

• Bank America Information & Business Services Conference 3/12, in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Y/Y for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2^nd estimate for Q3
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending 2^nd estimate for Q3
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q3 2^nd estimate
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Prices for Q3-preliminary
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Prices for Q3-preliminary
• 10:00 AM ET                 JOLTs Job Openings for January
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence for March-prelim
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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