Early Look

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

U.S. futures are bouncing overnight, with technology getting a boost thanks to the AI space as neocloud CoreWeave (CRWV) shares soar 18% to $107 premarket after lifting its annual capital spending forecast (to $35B-$39B from prior $31B-$35B view) and posts upbeat Q2 and raised guidance for 2026 revs and adj operating profit, while sending shares of rival neocloud Nebius Group (NBIS) 9% to $211 ahead of its earnings later this morning. Shares of data center operators, IREN, WULF, CORZ, CIFR, HUT and others are also rising. Optical stocks are also moving on the heels of better results from Lumentum (LITE) as shares +7%. The semi space also getting a lift as SMCI Corp (SMCI) rises 9% on its results and sharply higher guidance. The Nasdaq futures are up +0.7% and S&P futures around +0.3%, but still important data points coming up that can impact broader markets. U.S. stock markets slipped on Tuesday ahead of today’s key July consumer price inflation report where CPI is forecast to rise 0.1% in July from a 0.4% fall in June, while the y/y figure is expected at 3.4% from 3.5% the previous month; the core CPI forecast was for a 0.1% rise (vs. prior M/M) while the year-on-year number was seen at 2.5% (vs. prior 2.6%). Oil prices closed higher yesterday as the newly appointed secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as the U.S. does not change its behavior and accept Iran's conditions to end the war. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 553 points to 67,524, the Shanghai Index gained 12 points to 3,946, and the Hang Seng Index falls -212 points to 25,440. In Europe, the German DAX is up 128 points to 26,519, while the FTSE 100 is up 5 points to 10,849. The tech trade is strong overnight, but will the inflation report cool things off? Or heat things up?

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid -184.01 points, or 0.34%, to 53,791.97
• The Nasdaq Composite slumped -159.91 points, or 0.60%, to 26,445.45
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 9.74 points, or 0.32% to 3,027.14

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for July…est. +0.1% (prior -0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for July…est. +3.4% (prior +3.5%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for July…est. est. +0.2% (prior 0%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for July…est. +2.5% (prior +2.6%)
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for July…prior
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal budget for July

• Earnings After the Close: ALLO AOSL AVIR BSEM BTGO CAE CBRS CEPL COHR CRWS CSCO CURI DERM ENS ENVX EQPT FGI FOSL GO HLIT INFQ INO INVE ITG JACK KE KURA LFTO LVLU MCHX NNE NOA OPRX PAAS RNXT RRGB SCOR SKYH SPCE SPIR STAA STEM STN STUB TBBB USIO WHK

• DA Davidson 16th Annual Western Bank Summit, 8/11-8/12 (virtual)
• Oppenheimer 29th Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conference, 8/11-8/13
• Stifel Biotech Summer Summit, 8/10-8/12, in Newport, RI

• CAVA Group (CAVA) Q2 EPS $0.19 vs. est. $0.18; Q2 revs $365.4M vs. est. $360.1M; Q2 same restaurant sales increased 9.0%, including guest traffic growth of 5.3%, and opened 17 net new restaurants during the quarter; affirms FY26 adjusted EBITDA view of $181M-$191M and comp Restaurant Sales 4.5% to 6.5%.
• National CineMedia (NCMI) shares fall; Q2 EPS loss (-$0.10) vs. est. loss (-$0.09); Q2 revenue $58.4M vs. est. $59.52M; entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Captivate Holdings, LLC, an operator of digital video elevator and lobby advertising in North America, at an enterprise value of $275M.

• Energy Vault Holding (NRGV) Q2 adj EPS ($0.15) vs est ($0.17); revenue $17.4Mm vs. est. $14.1Mm, +104% YoY; GAAP gross margin 31%; operating loss $24.7Mm; FY revenue guidance $270Mm-$310Mm vs. prior $225Mm-$300Mm and est. $252.4Mm; FY gross-margin guidance raised; 1.25 GW Texas Ai-data-center contract expected to generate $500Mm-$600Mm of revenue across 2H FY26-FY27.
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Q2 EPS ($0.57) vs est ($0.52); revenue $117.7Mm vs. est. $88.2Mm, beat, +659% YoY; gross profit $23.9Mm; operating loss $95.2Mm; FY revenue guidance $420Mm-$450Mm vs. est. $440.4Mm; Lockheed Martin multi-launch agreement extended through 2031.
• Nuscale Power (SMR) said may offer up to $750M of common stock under at-the-market sales agreement.
• T1 Energy (TE) Q2 cont ops EPS loss (-$0.145) vs. est. loss (-$0.10); Q2 revenue $250.13M above consensus $198.84M; Q2 operating expenses $71.87M; said expects G1_Dallas 2026 production at the higher end of 3.1-4.2 GW range and expects first solar cells from G2_Austin in Q1 2027
• U.S. Antimony Corp. (UAMY) Q2 EPS $0.00 vs. est. $0.01, miss; revenue $7.9Mm vs. est. $21.7Mm, -25% YoY; gross margin 7%; antimony pounds sold +26% YoY; FY revenue guidance $60Mm-$75Mm vs. prior $125Mm and est. $114.0Mm.

• H&R Block (HRB) Q4 adj. EPS $2.38 vs est $2.21; revenue $1.14B vs est $1.118B; FY adj. EPS $5.31 vs. est. $5.16, beat; FY revenue $3.95B vs. est. $3.92B, beat; FY27 revenue guidance $4.11B-$4.16B vs est $4.054B; FY27 adj. EPS guidance $6.04-$6.24 vs est $5.86
• Realty Income (O) announces $750 convertible senior notes offering.

• Liquidia (LQDA) Q2 YUTREPIA net product  sales $170.4M; recorded fourth consecutive quarter of increasing profitability, with net income of $74.7M; 5,900 unique patient prescriptions since launch in June'25; Q2 cash and cash equivalents $284.2M
• Taysha Gene Therapies (TSHA) Q2 EPS ($0.13) vs. est. ($0.12), miss; R&D expense $38.6Mm, +92% YoY; operating loss $47.3Mm; operating expenses $47.3Mm.

• Evolv Technologies (EVLV) Q2 adj EPS ($0.02) vs. est. ($0.03), beat; revenue $43.8Mm vs. est. $41.8Mm, beat; ARR $132.7Mm; adj. EBITDA $4.4Mm vs est $2.652Mm; FY revenue guidance $180Mm-$185Mm vs. prior $175Mm-$180Mm and est. $177.2Mm; FY adj. EBITDA guidance $15Mm-$16Mm vs est $14.39Mm.
• Global-e Online Ltd (GLBE) Q2 revs $299M vs. est. $283.1M; Q2 ADJ gross margin 45.3%; Q2 Net Income $47.7M; Q2 ADJ EBITDA $62.4M; raises FY rev view to $1.305-$1.36B above prior view $1.22B-$1.28B and guides Q3 revs $308.5M-$315.5M, consensus $294.12M.
• Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. reported a better-than-expected increase in quarterly profit, signaling robust global demand for AI hardware; Net income for the three months ended in June grew 35% to NT$60 billion ($1.9 billion), versus the average analyst projection of NT$58.4 billion. The company previously reported a 40% rise in quarterly sales. Revenue in July jumped 54.2% to NT$946.5 billion.
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Q4 adj EPS $3.23 vs. est. $2.97; Q4 revs $1.01B vs. est. $987.7M; Q4 net income $326.3M vs. est. $290.8M; Q4 gross margins 50.4% and adj op. margin 47.4%; guides Q1 EPS $4.05-$4.35 vs. est. $3.61 and Q1 revs $1.225B-$1.275B above consensus $1.16B
• Quantinuum Inc. (QNT) Q2 adj EPS loss (-$0.28) vs. est. loss (-$0.26); Q2 revs $8M vs. est. $7.6M; sees FY26 revenue $28M-$32M, vs. consensus $26.47M; to partner with ORCL to accelerate hybrid quantum compute adoption on Oracle Cloud infrastructure.
• Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) Q2 net income (-$10.592M) vs. est. $22.9M and Q2 revs rose 18% y/y to $228.19M vs. est. $228M; suspended forward guidance due to pending Texas Instruments acquisition
• SMCI Corp. (SMCI) Q4 EPS $1.70 tops consensus $0.96; Q4 sales $11.1B vs. est. $11.6B; sees Q1 net sales $14.5B-$15.5B, well above consensus est. $11.99B and EPS $1.01-$1.10 vs. est. $0.72; expects annual revenue between $65B-$72B, ahead of estimates of $52.50B; said have generated more than $60 billion in new orders and booked record backlog entering fiscal 2027.
• U.S. memory stocks rose in overnight trading (MU, SNDK, SKHY) after reports that Singapore's sovereign wealth fund Temasek is planning to invest in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix triggered a rally in South Korean stocks.
• Velo3D (VELO) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.30) vs. est. loss (-$0.27); Q2 revs rose 52.3% y/y to $20.7M vs. est. $13.52M; raises FY26 revenue view to $65M-$75M from $60M-$70M (est. $64.16M); sees greater than 30% gross margin in 2H’26; sees FY26 adj operating expenses $45M-$55M; CapEx $40M-$50M, primarily for RPS expansion.

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

U.S. stocks holding the gains from overnight as better earnings/guidance results in the AI/semi/neocloud sector boost the whole complex with CRWV, NBIS (neoclouds), SMCI, Hon Tai (semis) and LITE (opticals) all rising post results and guidance and giving a boost to data center and hyperscalers. A monthly July inflation report for consumer prices (CPI) came in higher than the previous month, m/m and y/y…but was exactly in-line with economist estimates easing inflation/rate hike fears ahead of the PPI tomorrow. The headline monthly CPI reading came in at 0.1%, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, registered 0.2%, which gave a boost to Treasury prices as yields fell with the 2-Year Treasury yield, closely watched for its sensitivity to near-term policy expectations, dropped 4 bps to 4.17% and the benchmark U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield also declined 4 basis points, settling at 4.65%. The lower yields lifted precious metals as gold futures surge above $4,500/oz for the first time since June 5^th, now up roughly +14% in over three weeks. Following the data, U.S. rate futures priced in a 44% chance of a rate hike at the September Fed meeting, from 48% late Tuesday. Oil remains choppy as markets wait for tangible developments on US-Iran diplomacy and the Strait of Hormuz. Crude saw modest gains, extending its run to a sixth session as both the US and Iran appeared to harden positions on the strait despite Pakistan's Defense Minister Asif saying the two are close to some arrangement. The IEA now forecasts a 1.8M bpd oil-market deficit in Q3, more than double its previous 800K bpd estimate.

• Restaurant sector: EAT posted Q4 sales $1.54B vs. est. $1.53B as net income rose 22.5% y/y to $131.1M (but below est. $135.5M) and forecasts annual profit above estimates, as Sees adjusted EPS in the range of $12.60 to $13.40 above estimates of $12.52. CAVA posted stronger Q2 comp sales (+9.0% vs consensus +7.6%) and adj EBITDA (~$55M vs. consensus ~$53M) including guest traffic growth of 5.3% and opened 17 net new restaurants while guides same-restaurant sales growth of 4.5%-6.5%, adjusted EBITDA of $181M-$191M for the year.
• Power sector: BE shares rise on back of NBIS results after the company commented on the Vineland, NJ site and the switch to Bloom: “The amendment to the site layout plan was a result of the decision to switch the project's power source to Bloom.” Form Energy, a startup that makes giant iron-air batteries that store enough power to last several days has raised a new round of funding valued at $750M. The Co has now raised more than $2B in total, plans to use the money to boost manufacturing at its Weirton, W.Va., plant and for its first Wave of commercial projects, including a project for the utility Xcel Energy in partnership with GOOGL. SMR said may offer up to $750M of common stock under at-the-market sales agreement. TE Q2 cont ops EPS loss (-$0.14) vs. est. loss (-$0.10) on revs $250.13M above est. $198.84M and expects G1_Dallas 2026 production at the higher end of 3.1-4.2 GW range and expects first solar cells from G2_Austin in Q1 2027

• CAVA +14%; posted stronger Q2 comp sales (+9.0% vs consensus +7.6%) and adj EBITDA (~$55M vs. consensus ~$53M) including guest traffic growth of 5.3% and opened 17 net new restaurants while guides same-restaurant sales growth of 4.5%-6.5%, adjusted EBITDA of $181M-$191M for the year.
• CRWV +18%; after Q2 EPS, revs, Ebitda and operating income all topped consensus while lifted its annual capital spending forecast (to $35B-$39B from prior $31B-$35B view) and raised guidance for 2026 revs and adj operating; ended Q226 with revenue backlog of $104.2B, up from $99.4B in Q126.
• DFTX +6%; study met primary and all key secondary efficacy endpoints; announces positive topline results from phase 3 Voyage study of DT120 ODT in generalized anxiety disorder; participants receiving DT120 ODT achieved a statistically significant reduction in Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAM-A) score.
• LITE +5%; results topped consensus as posted Q4 revenue of $1.01B vs. estimate of $987.9M and adj EPS $3.23, beating the estimate of $2.97 while guiding guides Q1 EPS $4.05-$4.35 vs. est. $3.61 and Q1 revs $1.225B-$1.275B above consensus $1.16B.
• NBIS +20%; Q2 revenue $582.3M, tops consensus $557M and adj EBITDA $236.2M vs. est. $157.9M; ARR of $3B at end of June, up from the $1.9B reported at end of March; raises capacity guidance for year end 2026 to 5 GW, from guidance of over 4 GW in May.
• SMCI +15%; as Q4 results were in line with pre-announced levels and, positively, FY27 revenue outlook was far above consensus (expects annual revenue between $65B-$72B, ahead of estimates of $52.50B) as SMCI noted diversity of the backlog in terms of customers as well as products.
• VELO +11%; shares rise on results as Q2 EPS loss (-$0.30) vs. est. loss (-$0.27); Q2 revs rose 52.3% y/y to $20.7M vs. est. $13.52M; raises FY26 revenue view to $65M-$75M from $60M-$70M (est. $64.16M); sees greater than 30% gross margin in 2H’26.

• NBIX -2%; after experts in Prader-Willi Syndrome raised safety concerns over its Vykat XR drug (which they acquired from Soleno in a $2.9B deal in May) , citing serious adverse events reported in patients with the rare genetic disorder. The FDA Adverse Event Monitoring System (AEMS) showed seven reports of death linked to patients taking the drug as of July 31, 2026
• NCMI -31%; shares fall as Q2 EPS loss (-$0.10) vs. est. loss (-$0.09); Q2 revenue $58.4M miss est. $59.52M; entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Captivate Holdings, LLC, an operator of digital video elevator and lobby advertising in N.A at an enterprise value of $275M.
• PFGC -5%; on results as Q4 adj EPS $1.59 just below est. $160 while revs rose 6.4% y/y to $18B vs. est. $18.09B, while guides Q1 revs $17.9B-$18.1B, below consensus $18.13B and sees FY27 revenue $72.5B-$73B, consensus $72.68B.
• SAP -2%; along with pullbacks in recently strong software stocks CRM, HUBS, MNDY, NOW, TEAM, TWLO, WDAY, etc. as investors rotate back into semis (SOX) and AI related plays on heels of good earnings in the sector.

Closing Recap

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

US equity futures managed small overnight gains with no major Iran headlines and no market-moving earnings out last night.  Sellers quickly stepped in to push both the S&P and Nasdaq briefly into the red.  By mid-morning, equities were effectively moving sideways with brief stints of gains and losses.  Early breadth favored advancers by 5:3 as small caps outperformed with IWM (+0.34%) versus SPY (-0.04%) and QQQ (-0.09%).  SPY breadth favored advancers by 6:5, while QQQ breadth remained neutral.  Sector performance saw Energy (+1.06%), Industrials (+0.70%) and Utilities (+0.34%) outperforming while Health Care (-0.23%), Real Estate (-0.53%) and Consumer Staples (-0.69%) paced the underperformers with 7 sectors gaining versus 4 declining.

In sentiment today, the Fear & Greed Index registered 63/100 (Greed) versus 59 (Greed) last week, 46 (Neutral) last month and 57 (Greed) at this time last year.  Earnings continue to provide a boost, with 87% of reporting companies thus far having beaten EPS estimates by an average of 14% and average earnings growth of 25% (median growth 14%).  Some big names have yet to report, but that’s a solid showing thus far.

Heading into the final hour of trading today, the day looked to finish lower.  That said, per @schaeffers, every six-day losing streak in the QQQ in their recent study has been followed by a positive three-month return with an average of +7.98%.  Twelve six-day losing streaks followed by twelve three-month positive returns.  The latest losing streak restarted the three-month window on July 29, so perhaps a down day here and there is just a blip in the new uptrend.

All eyes on inflation data tomorrow as the July consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to rise 0.1% in July from a 0.4% fall in June, while the year-over-year figure is expected at 3.4% from 3.5% the previous month, according to a Reuters poll. The core CPI forecast was for a 0.1% rise (vs. prior M/M) while the year-on-year number was seen at 2.5% (vs. prior 2.6%). Then Thursday we get the July headline U.S. producer price index is seen rising 0.2% in July after a 0.3% decline. Year-over-year, PPI is expected to rise 4.9% after advancing 5.5% in June.

• NFIB Small Business Optimism jumped 2.4 pts to 99.8 (highest since Aug 2025, above 52-yr avg of 98.0). Hiring plans surged +9 pts to net 20%.

• WTI crude gained modestly overnight but was quick to reverse as headlines noted comments out of Pakistan indicating the US and Iran situation is moving toward peace.  Both WTI and Brent turned the 1-2% overnight gains into modest declines before another round of headlines soured the mood with commentary indicating the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened until Iran’s conditions are met.  Uno reversal card played, oil back to gains on the day with the September WTI crude contract eventually settling +$1.07/bbl, or +1.30%, at $83.20.

• Footwear sector: ONON shares tumbled after earnings results disappointed as Q2 total revenues rising 21.6%-below projections of 24% and 23%-despite direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales performing well, up 34.3% while a surprising slowdown in wholesale growth, up only 12.7%, raised concerns about channel management and future sales. ONON has revised down its 2026 revenue outlook from at least +23% to low 20% growth in constant currency.
• Mattress retailers: PRPL Q2 results were below expectations given ongoing industry softness, while the company lowered its 2026 revenue guidance to $420M-$440M from $465M-$485M (est. $466.9M) given soft Q2 results and the outlook for 2H, though narrowed its adj. EBITDA guidance.
• Electronic Retail: BBY was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist and raise tgt to $95 from $81 based on positive Q2 Truist Card reads (raising Q2 Dom comp to +2.5%E vs Street/guide of +1%) and its view that the mkt will likely extrapolate Q2 trends/stacks to 2H expectations.
• Auto sector: ACVA posted mixed Q2 results as revenue $213.9Mm missed the est $214.89Mm while adj. EBITDA $21Mm vs. est. $18.9Mm and Q3 adj. EBITDA guidance $21Mm-$24Mm vs est $23.78Mm; shares fell as much as -15% overnight post results but rebounded this morning after Bloomberg reported the co is said to explore sale amid takeover interest.

• Power & Equipment: BW shares rise signed an agreement with Siemens Energy to begin work on 20 steam turbine generator sets, each providing 50 MW, totaling 1 GW of generating capacity. PLUG delivered better-than-expected Q2 results with gross margins reaching near break-even levels along with modestly improved revenue outlook for FY 2026 and reiterated positive Q4 adj. EBITDA target, but unrestricted cash fell to $162MM in Q2.
• Refiner sector: PSX, DINO and KMI have finalized a joint venture agreement and decided to proceed with the proposed $5 billion Western Gateway Pipeline system. Phillips 66 will own 49.9% of the joint venture, Kinder Morgan 35.1% and HF Sinclair 15%, they added.

• FinTech sector: OPFI shares slumped after lowering its total revenue forecast to $600M-$625M from prior view of $650M-$657M and adj net income forecast cut to $115M-$130M from prior $153M-$160M after posting Q2 adj EPS $0.33 missing the $0.45 estimate.
• Insurance sector: ALL was downgraded to Sell at Citigroup as valuation likely to trend lower with ROEs. In addition, headline risk related to homeowners' affordability (as opposed to Auto) could be increasing. ROOT downgraded to Hold from Buy and lower tgt to $58 from $78 saying does not think current environment growth performance invalidates the long term thesis, but it does make the near term setup less attractive.

• BBIO reported Q2 total revenues and Attruby net product revenue both coming in ahead of consensus, while all three near-term NDAs are now filed, in active regulatory review, and the first PDUFA date for BBP-418 in LGMD2I/R9 set for November 27, 2026.
• BHVN reported narrower Q2 EPS loss on lower R&D and preclinical spending; said expects topline results from Phase 2/3 RISE3 epilepsy trial in 2H 2026 and plans to initiate pivotal Phase 3 study for BHV-1400 in IgAN in 2H 2026.
• CCCC Q2 revenue rose slightly, beating analyst expectations while Q2 net loss per share was $0.18, better than analyst estimates; said revenue growth driven by new Roche collaboration; expenses declined on lower personnel costs.
• Medical Distributors: CAH shares rise as Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.91 tops the $2.42 estimate on revenue of $63.7B, issuing FY adjusted EPS guidance of $12.40–$12.60 above the $12.00 consensus, while its board approved a $5.0B incremental share repurchase authorization
• Healthcare Services: HIMS reported Q2 revenue, subscribers, and EBITDA all exceeding Street expectations, though updated guidance was mixed pressuring shares early; beat in Q2, raised 2026 revenue guidance mostly on the Eucalyptus acquisition and lowered EBITDA guidance by 4%.
• Cannabis sector: Curaleaf (CURLF) announces intention to launch take-over bid for Aurora Cannabis (ACB) to solidify its position as the global Cannabis industry leader offering values Aurora at US$4.00 per share which includes 0.3463 Curaleaf shares plus US$0.75 cash.
• Medical Equipment: ALC beat and raise as  Q2 adj EPS $0.84/$2.782B tops est. $0.75/$2.769B; raises FY26 EPS growth view to 12%-15% from 10%-13% while affirms FY26 revenue growth view of 5%-8%, saying the outlook assumes aggregated markets grow approximately 3% to 4%.

• Defense: BA was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus with a $265 price target saying the company is poised for a meaningful ramp in production amid approval to step-up monthly manufacturing limits and the receipt of long-awaited flight certifications for two airplane models. Argus expects strong order backlogs, solid revenue growth, and margin improvement to continue. PSN awarded $40M Electronic warfare National Security contract with one base year and more option years.
• eVTOL sector: JOBY will acquire Resonant Sciences for approximately $500M, adding a Defense technology business with more than $100M in trailing-12-month revenue, ~40% YoY growth and high-teens Adj. EBITDA margins. Resonant will become Joby’s dedicated Defense business. ACHR reported Q2 adj EPS loss (-$177.1M) vs. est. loss (-$187.6M); Q2 net loss widens to (-$45.5M); Q2 revs $5M vs. est. $1.96Ml guides Q3 adj Ebitda (-$200M-$170M).

• Computer Hardware: Everpure (P) shares rose announces Design win and supply agreement with second top five hyperscaler; said expects design win to contribute to revenue starting in FY2028. Citigroup upgraded Everpure to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $118, up from $90; IBM and Together AI sign $240M multi-year deal for NVIDIA-Powered AI Infrastructure. IBM will deploy a large cluster of NVIDIA HGX B300 systems on IBM Cloud under a $240 million multi-year agreement with Together AI, with availability targeted for Q1 2027.
• Online/Internet: SE shares jumped after Q2 revenue $7.79B, +48.1% y/y vs. est. $7.06B; Q2 gross profit $3.55B, +47.3% y/y, net income $458.1M, +10.6% y/y and adj. EBITDA $917.2M, +10.6% y/y; Q2 Shopee GMV rose 28.4% y/y to $38.3B, gross orders increased 27.5% to 4.2B.

• Security Software: RPD delivered Q2 results ahead of expectations, w/ARR decelerating 1pt Q/Q to -2% Y/Y as NNARR was negative $8.1M while Q3 ARR guidance calls for a $12M Q/Q decline, consistent w/ Q2 guidance reflect continued growth pressures. OKTA tgt raised to $170 from $125 at Oppenheimer saying based on their checks, believe Okta can deliver ~2pts of upside to 2QFY27 revenue guidance midpoint.
• Gaming Software: APP was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America saying risks to AppLovin's articulated 30% y/y long-term revenue growth forecast have increased and innovations in support of 30% growth are also riskier.
• Quantum compute: QUBT Q2 EPS ($0.05) vs. est. ($0.04), miss; revenue $5.6Mm vs. est. $5.15Mm, up from $0.1Mm YoY; Photonics product sales drove revenue; operating loss $23.0Mm; operating expenses $21.8Mm.

• NVDA is doubling down on its open-source efforts, pouring investment into an ambitious new in-house Ai model that it hopes will drive demand for its hardware—but that could also compete with customers and Partners. Nvidia is aiming for the new model, the biggest of a Family that it is calling Nemotron 4, to be on par in its performance with the best open-source Ai models in the world, according to several people who work on Nemotron – The Information reported.
• TSM and SONY said they will form a $4.69B joint venture to develop and make next-generation image sensors in southern Japan, with volume production expected to start in 2029. Sony will be the controlling shareholder and invest 465B yen ($2.92B), while TSMC will invest 282B yen.
• Semi Equipment sector: Bernstein raises AMAT PT to $675 from $525, LRCX to $385 from $265 and KLAC to $250 from $225 to align with Bernstein's new WFE updates and take target prices up for all three with increasing conviction that the current upcycle in Equipment spending has legs. Bernstein significantly lift its 2026 WFE to $148B (+26.3% YoY) from 141B (+21.4%), 2027 WFE to $204B (+32.6% YoY) from $175B (+18.2%), and 2028 WFE to 259B (+27% YoY) from $198B (+13%), based on outlook on a broad-based increase in investment.

Street Recommendations

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

• ONON Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih lowered the firm's price target on On Holding to $42 from $46 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q2 report. On reported a "rare" sales miss as trends were challenged, particularly in the "highly promotional" Americas region, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays says the company is choosing to drive full-price direct-to-consumer growth over a promotional wholesale channel.
• PGNY Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Progyny to $30 from $34 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm cites larger seasonal headwinds in Q3 for the target cut. Barclays is "cautiously optimistic" that Progyny's volumes will improve in the second half of 2026, but sees limited visibility into utilization trends.
• SMCI Barclays raised the firm's price target on Super Micro to $39 from $38 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's fiscal Q4 revenues were in-line with estimates while gross margins reached double-digits due to favorable mix and some one-time benefits, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says details and visibility around Super Micro's $60B in new orders remains unclear but the fiscal year guidance raise is encouraging.
• RIG Barclays analyst Eddie Kim lowered the firm's price target on Transocean to $7 from $8 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q2 report. Transocean expects deepwater rig utilization to approach 100% by the end of 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays expects pricing to move up off the mid-$400s on contract announcements next year.

• NIQ BMO Capital analyst Jeffrey Silber raised the firm's price target on NIQ Global to $16 from $13 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company delivered solid Q2 results with adjusted EPS and EBITDA well above the top end of guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Both Intelligence and Activation growth accelerated sequentially, supported by strong retention, new wins and cross-sell/upsell, the firm added.

• SE BofA raised the firm's price target on Sea Limited to $143 from $120 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported "strong" 48% top-line growth that beat BofA and Street estimates. While the overall adjusted EBITDA at $917M came largely in line with expectations, Shopee margins beat expectations, the analyst noted.
• ARMK BofA raised the firm's price target on Aramark to $70 from $65 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm raised its FY26 revenue and adjusted operating income estimates to reflect Q3 performance and the updated FY26 guidance, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• INTC BofA estimates Intel's $20B equity offering results in about 4%-5% EPS dilution on a higher share count, but is still "a good leading indicator" of management's increasing foundry conviction. The firm views the raise as net positive overall given foundry scale and customer conviction driving longer term top-line and operational efficiency, more than offsetting modest near-term EPS dilution, adds the analyst, who reiterates a Buy rating on Intel, but lowers the firm's price target to $145 from $160, reflecting modest EPS dilution and the recent re-rating in AI-compute peer multiples.
• SMCI BofA raised the firm's price target on Super Micro to $33 from $28 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Revenue growth is "strong," but current margins are "not sustainable," the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note. The firm remains cautious on margins given pressure from competition in the AI server/rack space, component costs increases and investments in additional engineering support and services, the analyst added.
• TGT BofA raised the firm's price target on Target to $124 from $110 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm, which forecasts comp growth of 2.5% in Q2 and 2% in the second half, relatively in line with guidance, increased its Q2 and FY26 EPS estimates by 3% each to reflect better sales as broader consumer spending has remained resilient. However, while Target has shown an "impressive improvement" in sales under new leadership, the firm remains wary about the pace of EPS revisions and sustainability of strong comp trends from here, the analyst tells investors in a preview.

• WULF Citi lowered the firm's price target on TeraWulf to $31 from $36 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q2 report shows progress in the growth of its leasing revenue, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites a lesser value for TeraWulf's divested joint venture for the target cut.
• ACM Citi analyst Andrew Kaplowitz lowered the firm's price target on Aecom to $84 from $97 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the fiscal Q3 report. The firm sees the shares remaining in the "penalty box" pending clarity around the company's remaining legacy construction management projects. It views Aecom's risk/reward as favorable for long-term investors.
• ONON Citi lowered the firm's price target on On Holding to $55 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a Q2 sales miss and cut its second half of 2026 outlook driven by weaker sell-in within wholesale, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• EXPE Citi raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $345 from $245 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Citi is "incrementally positive" on the shares post Expedia's Q2 report, citing better than expected growth bookings growth. However, the analyst sees a balanced risk/reward at current share levels.

• ATAI Deutsche Bank downgraded AtaiBeckley to Hold from Buy with a price target of $8, down from $12. The firm cites the pending acquisition by Eli Lilly for the downgrade.
• HLT Deutsche Bank upgraded Hilton to Buy from Hold with a $365 price target.

• HRB Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on H&R Block to $33 from $29 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The positive Q4 results and execution are tempered by structural growth concerns, with limited room for further assisted-share gains, slowing industry tax return growth, continued DIY share pressure, and longer-term disruption risk from increasingly capable AI-enabled tax products, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LDOS Goldman Sachs analyst Noah Poponak lowered the firm's price target on Leidos to $132 from $152 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Leidos delivered a Q2 beat across revenue, EBITDA, and EPS, raised the low end of its 2026 guidance, and authorized a new share repurchase program, though normalization and competitive pressure in Health leave uncertainty around medium-term earnings power, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MTZ Goldman Sachs analyst Ati Modak lowered the firm's price target on MasTec to $409 from $508 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The selloff appears excessive given continued growth in Power Delivery, Pipeline Infrastructure, and Clean Energy, with long-term earnings supported by power and data center demand, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ANF Goldman Sachs analyst Jon Keypour raised the firm's price target on Abercrombie & Fitch to $124 from $109 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of the Q2 earnings, in-store and online trends remain broadly in line with expectations, with mixed Hollister U.S. signals but a notable 18-point sequential improvement in EMEA site traffic suggesting a meaningful improvement from the region's prior drag on comps, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• URBN Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe raised the firm's price target on Urban Outfitters to $79 from $72 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm cites "promising" Urban Outfitters alt data and expectations for Anthropologie improvement for its target raise ahead of the company's Q2 earnings report.

• LITE JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Lumentum to $1,280 from $1,165 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the fiscal Q4 report. The company "sidestepped near-term concerns" around the increasing mix of transceiver, delivering strong revenue and margin results, and issued upbeat guidance for Q1, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan continues to see Lumentum well positioned to drive upside to estimates, given demand momentum across its existing portfolio and the "incremental opportunities on the horizon."
• HLIO JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Helios Technologies to $110 from $100 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q2 report as "standout." Helios exceeded expectations across virtually every key metric with growth broad-based across segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan upped estimates post the earnings report.

• ATI KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on ATI to $258 from $211 on higher estimates, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. Following the company's Q2 results and its analysis, KeyBanc increases its 2026-2027 on continued margin strength. The firm believes long-term cyclical growth investors will be attracted to ATI's leverage to A&D, niche higher-margin exotics alloy portfolio, ongoing margin improvement, and discretionary free cash flow to equity toward share buybacks.
• TRNO KeyBanc analyst Todd Thomas raised the firm's price target on Terreno Realty to $75 from $72 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following Q2 earnings on higher estimates and continued execution. Improving leasing momentum, aided by incremental activity from defense, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing tenants, and stronger-than-expected leasing spreads continue to support internal growth, KeyBanc says.

• CAH Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Cardinal Health to $250 from $240 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says management reinforced its positive preview on a post-earnings call that Q2 saw robust brand-to-generic conversion activity. It upped estimates following the Q2 print.
• LITE Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Lumentum to $1,140 from $1,100 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company reported a solid quarter with margin upside, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Lumentum is well positioned "with a strong laser chip moat."
• TME Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Tencent Music to $15 from $18 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following the earnings report. The company's trends look incrementally challenging this quarter as underlying core music sub-segment decelerated several points from last quarter as did non-subscriber music, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho cites Tencent Music's near-term challenges for the target cut.

• LITE Morgan Stanley analyst Meta Marshall raised the firm's price target on Lumentum to $1,000 from $900 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is "biased more positively in the near term" given it sees little downside, particularly with potential FCC rules looming, though it doesn't see a clear catalyst in the name until the fall and into OFC next year when the market could get more clarity on additional NPO engagements, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

• LEGN Oppenheimer downgraded Legend Biotech to Perform from Outperform.

• MRCY Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries initiated coverage of Mercury Systems with an Overweight rating and $126 price target. With over 40 years of operations in defense electronics, Mercury has built a "robust business" by converting commercial silicon into secure, ruggedized computing for the defense sector, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper believes the company's recent results indicate there is more runaway ahead for the shares.
• LPTH Piper Sandler initiated coverage of LightPath with an Overweight rating and $15 price target. LightPath specializes in the design and manufacture of high-performance optical components, such as infrared cameras for defense and industrial uses, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the company is positioned to capture meaningful share in the multi-spectral optics market as the technical advantages of the BlackDiamond technology scale to large diameter optics.
• AXP Piper Sandler analyst Bill Carcache raised the firm's price target on American Express to $405 from $396 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While investment spending is growing faster than revenue as American Express continues to reinvest across customer acquisition, rewards, technology, and commercial capabilities, the firm walks away from the analysis in this note with greater conviction that the company's investment spending has become more productive. Piper's analysis shows that revenue conversion has improved materially under CEO Steve Squeri.
• LEG Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith lowered the firm's price target on Leggett & Platt to $10 from $12 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the July 2026 PSC Mattress Retailer Survey showed growth of 4.5% and 4.0% year-over-year on a mean/median basis, respectively. While July was a slowdown vs. the prior two months, the growth was decent considering both the tough year-over-year compare and the slow start to the month from a sluggish July 4th weekend.
• USFD Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan raised the firm's price target on US Foods to $108 from $88 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported very solid results in what is still a difficult restaurant industry demand backdrop. With the release, US Foods reaffirmed its FY2026 guidance ranges and on the call, management pointed towards the mid-points of said ranges as its current expectations, Piper adds.

• WSFS Stephens analyst Russell Gunther downgraded WSFS Financial to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $87. FY27 consensus EPS has revised higher by 19.5% since the beginning of the year, with related pre-provision net revenue higher by 13.7%, while the stock is up 45.9% year-to-date, the analyst tells investors.
• EAT Stephens says Brinker reported a "mixed" Q4, but provided "encouraging" initial FY27 guidance with both top and bottom lines coming in ahead of consensus expectations. The "healthy" FY27 guidance should outweigh "any noise" from the Q4 results and the firm would be buyers on the print as it continues to be encouraged by the company's overall positioning, adds the analyst, who has an Overweight rating and $220 price target on Brinker shares.

• ONON Stifel lowered the firm's price target on On Holding to $41 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following the quarterly report, the firm cut its revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates from above the high-end of FY26 guidance, and assigns a lower valuation multiple to account for more challenging revenue visibility, the analyst tells investors.
• ARMK Stifel raised the firm's price target on Aramark to $70 from $54 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The Nexus data center opportunity seems to be scaling rapidly, which is "a key positive for investors," the analyst says in a post-earnings note.

• EXPE UBS raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $351 from $322 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Expedia delivered a strong Q2, with gross bookings up 12%, revenue up 14%, and adjusted EBITDA up 23% to $1.12B, as strong U.S. demand, B2B momentum, favorable mix, and cost discipline more than offset European softness, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BMBL UBS lowered the firm's price target on Bumble to $3 from $4.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Bumble showed encouraging payer stabilization in Q2, with app payers roughly flat sequentially and net adds materially better than Street expectations, but the growth inflection was pushed into early 2027 by Tech 2.0 delays, while continued revenue declines make a sustained recovery too early to underwrite, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ONON UBS lowered the firm's price target on On Holding to $73 from $83 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. On's Q2 pullback appears driven by temporary industry dynamics, while its innovation, athlete focus, DTC strategy, and premium positioning support sustained industry-leading growth, with upcoming product launches potentially driving a Q4 sales acceleration, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• COP UBS raised the firm's price target on ConocoPhillips to $153 from $143 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The Q2 update was positive despite CEO transition concerns, with the rapid move to incoming CEO Andy O'Brien signaling confidence in the leadership team while the company's large project pipeline and high graded global asset base provide a differentiated outlook for cash-flow growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MSFT Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Microsoft to $700 from $650 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Open models accelerate diffusion of intelligence via lower cost and broader availability, the firm notes, adding that its CIO survey suggests customers increasingly taking a hybrid model approach. Wells sees increasing terminal value of incumbent platforms improving multiples vs. what market was previously pricing in, but also expects to see continued dispersion in return on yield between software winners and losers given heightened investor focus on increasingly competitive backdrop.
• CRM Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin raised the firm's price target on Salesforce to $205 from $200 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Open models accelerate diffusion of intelligence via lower cost and broader availability, the firm notes, adding that its CIO survey suggests customers increasingly taking a hybrid model approach. Wells sees increasing terminal value of incumbent platforms improving multiples vs. what market was previously pricing in, but also expects to see continued dispersion in return on yield between software winners and losers given heightened investor focus on increasingly competitive backdrop.
• SAP Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on SAP to EUR 210 from EUR 165 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Open models accelerate diffusion of intelligence via lower cost and broader availability, the firm notes, adding that its CIO survey suggests customers increasingly taking a hybrid model approach. Wells sees increasing terminal value of incumbent platforms improving multiples vs. what market was previously pricing in, but also expects to see continued dispersion in return on yield between software winners and losers given heightened investor focus on increasingly competitive backdrop.
• NOW Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on ServiceNow to $175 from $160 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Open models accelerate diffusion of intelligence via lower cost and broader availability, the firm notes, adding that its CIO survey suggests customers increasingly taking a hybrid model approach. Wells sees increasing terminal value of incumbent platforms improving multiples vs. what market was previously pricing in, but also expects to see continued dispersion in return on yield between software winners and losers given heightened investor focus on increasingly competitive backdrop.
• WDAY Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin raised the firm's price target on Workday to $215 from $185 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Open models accelerate diffusion of intelligence via lower cost and broader availability, the firm notes, adding that its CIO survey suggests customers increasingly taking a hybrid model approach. Wells sees increasing terminal value of incumbent platforms improving multiples vs. what market was previously pricing in, but also expects to see continued dispersion in return on yield between software winners and losers given heightened investor focus on increasingly competitive backdrop.
• CAH Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter raised the firm's price target on Cardinal Health to $277 from $245 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is raising estimates following strong Q4 results and constructive 2027 guidance, which still appears to embed conservatism. Wells sees current valuation as justified by strong execution and upside bias to estimates.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: AAON ACHR ACM ACVA ALC ALMR ALTI APEI ASTS BBIO BKD BKKT BODI BW BZH CATX CCAP CNNE CODI DH DSP EVC GAIA GETY GPRO GUTS HIMS HNRG HPK HROW IHRT JBR JRVR MG NGS NHI NUS PANL PFLT PLBY PLUG QMCO QUBT RKLB RPAY RPD RUM SPG SRFM SVM TCMD TELA UPWK VREX WBTN

• Keybanc Technology Leadership Forum, 8/9-8/11, in Park City
• Needham 11th Annual MedTech & Diagnostics 1x1 Conference 8/10-8/11 (virtual)
• Stifel Biotech Summer Summit, 8/10-8/12, in Newport, RI
• TD Cowen 12th Annual Communications Infrastructure Summit, 8/10-8/11, in Boulder, CO

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales for July
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58N in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close:  AGRO AQST ATRO BGS BORR BRCB CAVA CDXS CINT CRWV DDI DNN EROC EVLV FLY FNV GRWG HRB HYLN IMOS LITE MLYS NCMI NN OWLT PXLW QNT QUIK SINT SMCI STXS TSHA WPRT WRAP

• DA Davidson 2026 Smallcap Conference, 8/10-8/11 (virtual)
• DA Davidson 16th Annual Western Bank Summit, 8/11-8/12 (virtual)
• Keybanc Technology Leadership Forum, 8/9-8/11, in Park City
• Needham 11th Annual MedTech & Diagnostics 1x1 Conference 8/10-8/11 (virtual)
• Oppenheimer 29th Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conference, 8/11-8/13
• Stifel Biotech Summer Summit, 8/10-8/12, in Newport, RI
• TD Cowen 12th Annual Communications Infrastructure Summit, 8/10-8/11, in Boulder, CO

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline M/M for July
• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline Y/Y for July
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for July
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for July
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Cleveland Fed CPI for July
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal budget for July

• Earnings After the Close: ALLO AOSL AVIR BSEM BTGO CAE CBRS CEPL COHR CRWS CSCO CURI DERM ENS ENVX EQPT FGI FOSL GO HLIT INFQ INO INVE ITG JACK KE KURA LFTO LVLU MCHX NNE NOA OPRX PAAS RNXT RRGB SCOR SKYH SPCE SPIR STAA STEM STN STUB TBBB USIO WHK

• DA Davidson 16th Annual Western Bank Summit, 8/11-8/12 (virtual)
• Oppenheimer 29th Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conference, 8/11-8/13
• Stifel Biotech Summer Summit, 8/10-8/12, in Newport, RI

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for July
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for July
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for July
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Core – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for July
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AEYE AMAT API ARX AVX BEAT CBUS CODX DEFI DLO DMRC ETON FIGR FTLF GEMI GLOB GWH HAWK HIT HTFL IDN JCAP KLC LSF MDXH BKTR PED PETS REKR SPRY VERI VUZI WKHS XOS YSS

• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales Ex: Autos M/m for July
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business Inventories M/M for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence Aug-prelim
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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