Closing Recap
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -66.74 | 0.13% | 50,121 |
S&P 500 | -0.34 | 0.00% | 6,941 |
Nasdaq | -36.01 | 0.16% | 23,066 |
Russell 2000 | -10.30 | 0.38% | 2,669 |
US equity futures bounced back a bit to eke out small gains overnight as earnings continued to be at least good enough with no mega-cap excitement to swing the indices. Of 330 S&P 500 names to have reported thus far, 79% beat estimates versus 80% last year with an average beat of 10% versus 30% last year and average EPS growth of 12% versus 17% last year (though median growth is +9% versus +10% last year). Investors sold the early rally as concerns mounted about the timing of future rate cuts and indices dipped to red. In sentiment today, the Fear & Greed Index registered 50/100 (Neutral) versus 39 (Fear) last week and 53 (Neutral) last month. By mid-morning, stocks had crossed back to green but with breadth still favoring decliners by 16:9 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-1.11%) versus SPY (+0.05%) and QQQ (+0.18%). Sector performance, though, skewed positive as Energy (+1.98%), Consumer Staples (+0.94%) and Materials (+0.77%) outperformed among S&P sector ETFs, while Communications (-0.41%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.62%) and Financials (-1.37%) paced the underperformers with eight sectors gaining versus just three declining.
In data of note, as investors continue to be concerned about software names, @bespokeinvest gives hope for the Nasdaq overall, noting the five-month trading range has compressed to its most narrow in almost a decade and historically such stretches have tended to occur within healthy uptrends. On a less bullish note, @DataTrekMB noted spending at bars and restaurants in America has been softening since mid-2025 in a reflection of softer US consumers’ discretionary spending. Separately, they noted the Russell 2000 recently enjoyed a 2 standard deviation outperformance versus the S&P 500 over a 50-day stretch (has only happened four other times since 2015). Historically, the next 50 days has almost always resulted in Russell 2000 underperformance, so watch for ongoing volatility in small caps on a relative basis.
Heading into the final hour of trading in a see-saw session, US equities were mixed with large-cap indices higher and small-caps in the red. Breadth continued to favor decliners but had narrowed to just 9:8 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.45%) versus SPY (flat) and QQQ (+0.27%). Sector performance held fairly steady with seven gainers versus four decliners amongst S&P sector ETF’s. Energy and Consumer Staples led the winners, while Financials continued as the largest laggard. The Fed and earnings continue to be the motivating factors behind the market, so expect continuing swings on data between Fed meetings
Economic Data
- The January jobs data (delayed to today from last Friday due to the recent gov’t shutdown) was stronger than consensus as U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped +130K vs. +70K consensus and +48K prior (revised from +50K), according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. The private payrolls reading even stronger at +172K vs. consensus +70K and factory jobs rising 5K vs. est. decline of -5K. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% vs. 4.4% consensus and 4.4% prior and January average hourly earnings +3.7% from year earlier (consensus +3.6%).
- The CBO projected 2026 deficit is about $100 billion higher, and total deficits from 2026 to 2035 are $1.4 trillion larger, while debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101% of GDP to 120% — exceeding historical highs. Notably, the CBO says higher tariffs partially offset some of those increases by raising federal revenue by $3 trillion, but that also comes with higher inflation from 2026 to 2029.
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- Gold futures enjoyed strong gains overnight and once again looked primed for a big up day. Better payrolls data, though, interrupted any all-in type rally and gold gave back some of the upside early. Still, considering traders pushed Fed cut expectations out by a month, gold did well to hold a nice gain. April futures settled +$67.50/oz, of +1.34%, to $5,098.50. March Silver settles +$3.54/oz, or +4.40%, at $83.92.
- March WTI crude futures saw a nice overnight gain and managed to hold on to settle +$0.67/bbl, or +1.05%, to $64.63. Ongoing tensions with Iran buoyed futures amidst supply concerns. Offsetting the Iran support today, and pulling futures off the early highs, were EIA data indicating a large weekly inventory build versus an expected draw. No doubt inventory glut concerns will persist into 2H26.
- U.S. natural gas futures edged higher 4.4 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $3.159 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) a day after the contract closed at its lowest since January 16 for a second day in a row. That small price increase came despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower demand next week than expected.
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 0.67 | 64.63 |
Brent | 0.60 | 69.40 |
Gold | 67.50 | 5,098.50 |
EUR/USD | -0.0015 | 1.1879 |
JPY/USD | -1.48 | 152.89 |
10-Year Note | 0.027 | 4.174% |
Sector News Breakdown
Autos:
- Ford Motor (F) missed Wall Street's Q4 earnings target but issued solid guidance for the current year saying they expect an uptick in profit in 2026 due to fading tariff impacts as well as material and warranty cost reduction (guided 2026 Ebit $8B-$10B vs. est. $8.78B).
- BWA posts Q4 profit and revenue above Wall Street estimates, helped by demand from its electrified powertrains and cost-saving measures ($1.35/$3.57B vs. est. $1.19/$3.53B) and guides FY26 net sales between $14.0B-$14.3B, below consensus estimates of $14.7B.
- DAN announced share repurchase increased to $2B by 2030 and raised its dividend.
- MNRO was upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer with a $40 price target saying while the company's challenges remain, it is now optimistic that dynamics for the chain are solidifying under new management and the company is positioned for strengthening sales and improved operating leverage.
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- Specialty Retail: toy maker MAT shares tumble after results and guidance disappoint (sees FY26 adjusted EPS $1.18-$1.30, below consensus $1.76) and said it will also spend $159M to buy NTES stake in a joint venture to boost its mobile-gaming business (shares were downgraded by both Citigroup and JP Morgan following results).
- In Food & Beverages: KHC shares declined after saying they are pausing work related to splitting into two companies, which was announced last year, reported Q4 sales $6.35B below est. $6.38B, forecasts annual sales/profit below estimates and announces a $600 million investment across marketing, sales, and R&D; the co guided Fy26 organic sales to be down 1.5% to 3.5%, compared with analysts' estimates of a small rise. In beer, Heineken (HEINY) said it would cut up to 6,000 jobs from its global workforce and set lower expectations on Wednesday for 2026 profit growth
Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:
- In Ride Hailing/Delivery: LYFT shares tumbled as Q4 results were mixed, with bookings in line and EBITDA roughly 5% above estimates, while Q1 EBITDA guidance trailed expectations despite solid bookings growth of 17%-20% y/y and ride growth decelerated as focus shifted to premium offerings.
- Theme Parks (CMCSA, DIS): Keybanc said its January Attendance Positive as their domestic geolocation data tracking Theme Park attendance appears positive; Disney attendance was +8% Y/y vs +2% in Dec., and Universal was +42% vs +21% in Dec., with an underlying improvement in Universal Orlando, ex EPIC.
- Cruise sector: NCLH was downgraded to EW from Overweight at Barclay’s saying they see a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels, citing valuation for the downgrade with Norwegian up 24% over the last three months; also says the company's Q1 yields are likely to be weak, with more downside than upside to recently lowered estimates.
- Lodging sector: HLT reported Q4 EPS/revs above consensus, but guidance was mixed as expects its full-year room revenue growth of 1% to 2%, compared with analysts' estimates of 2.05%, and guided FY26 adjusted EPS $8.49-$8.61, vs. consensus $9.15; RRR reported company-wide EBITDA of $213M, +4% vs. consensus, supported by solid Las Vegas operations. Las Vegas Locals EBITDA of $231M beat consensus of $225M; LVL margins of 45% increased ~30 bps YoY, beating consensus by ~100 bps, with overall margins increasing 50 bps for 2025.
Energy
- OPEC leaves 2026, 2027 forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged, Reuters reported. OPEC forecasts world demand for OPEC+ crude will average 42.6M bpd in Q1 2026 and 42.2 mbpd in Q2 (both unchanged from prev. Forecast). OPEC expects strong air travel demand and healthy road Mobility to support oil demand; notes drop in U.S. Dollar has provided more demand support. OPEC notes OPEC+ crude output averaged 42.45M bpd in January, down 439,000 bpd from December, led by drop in Kazakhstan.
- In Coal sector (BTU, AMR, ARL, ARCH), reports indicate that President Trump will unveil plans to use government funding and Pentagon contracts to sustain US coal-fired power plants as he seeks to drive domestic reliance on the Fossil fuel. The initiative, set to be announced today, will come through an executive order, as Trump directs Defense Secretary Hegseth to enter into agreements to purchase electricity from coal plants to power military operations, according to a White House official.
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
- In Brokers/Exchanges: HOOD shares fell after reported Q4 net revenue rose 27% Y/y to $1.28B but missed the $1.34B consensus estimate as Q4 Transaction-based revenue rose 15% y/y to $776M, but revenue from crypto trading fell 38%. Management was constructive on 2026, guiding for revenue to grow faster than largely investment-driven expenses.
- Insurance: more analyst defending insurance names after recent AI fear selloff as Deutsche Bank said selloff in names like AJG, MRSH are overdone for the commercial line Brokers, caught in the downdraft of two distinct but structurally related technological shocks: the launch of Insurify's generative Ai tool for real-time Insurance placement and the broader contagion from the "SaaSpocalypse" triggered by Anthropic's release of 11 plugins for Claude Cowork.
REITs:
- ADC reported 4Q25 earnings that beat cons. by $0.01 and introduced FY26 AFFO guidance that was ahead of cons. by 0.4%, representing y/y growth of 5.3%. Notably, ADC raised its FY26 investment forecast by 9% to $1.4B-$1.6B from its initial guidance of $1.38B.
- AKR 4Q results were in line with consensus, and initial 2026 FFO (new methodology) appears relatively in line with consensus as well (in line with FactSet, -$0.01 vs. Visible Alpha).
- DEI reported 4Q25 FFO in line with cons. and management introduced its FY26 FFO guidance slightly ahead of cons. by 0.7%. During 4Q25, fundamentals were mixed, as SSNOI decreased to -1.4% (+3.5% prior), though cash rental rates improved to-10.1% (-11.4% prior) and leasing accelerated to 906ksf (840ksf prior), which drove occupancy higher
- NTST reported 4Q25 AFFO in line with cons. and affirmed both its FY26 AFFO guidance of $1.35-$1.39 and net investment activity guidance of $400M ($436M in 2025). As previously announced, during 4Q25, net investment activity accelerated to $198M ($142M prior) and cap rates rose to 7.5% (7.4% prior).
Biotech & Pharma:
- DTIL said it receives U.S. FDA's clearance to begin testing its experimental therapy, PBGENE‑DMD, for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, a muscle‑wasting condition that weakens the heart.
- EXEL results and guidance were consistent with earlier pre-announcement, and the company maintained its FY26 guidance. Cabometyx sales in NET delivered in excess of +$100mn for FY25, with management signaling to a continued ramp in growth following the expansion of the GI salesforce.
- GILD reported 4Q earnings, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.86 vs. consensus of $1.81 and revenue of $7.93B vs. FactSet consensus of $7.69B, driven by better than expected HIV/oncology sales and overall, in-line OpEx, but conservative guidance weighed on shares initially.
- MDGL signed a deal with the Chinese biotech Suzhou Ribo Life Science, licensing six early-stage treatments for the liver disease MASH for $60 million up front and up to $4.4 billion in total.
- MRNA shares fell after US regulators refused to review its novel mRNA flu vaccine, dealing a major blow to the company as it seeks to expand beyond its Covid shot
Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:
- Healthcare technology: HNGE reported a healthy top- and bottom-line beat, as LTM calculated billings reached $671M, up 44% y/y and for 1Q, HNGE guided to revenue growth of ~39% y/y at ~18% adj. and for FY26, HNGE guided to ~25% growth at ~21% margins.
- Managed care: the hits keep coming as HUM shares fell on weak guidance; HUM Q4 beat but issued 2026 EPS guidance of $9 (vs. street consensus of $11.91) with FY26 individual MA membership growth of ~25% over 2025, with the company noting higher than typical level of conservatism to account for the dynamic environment.
- Hospital sector: THC Q4 adjusted EBITDA slightly above expectations ($1.18B vs $1.15B est), FY26 adjusted EBITDA mostly in line with estimates; Q4 Hospital Operations and Services net operating revenue $4.09B vs. est. 44.07B; Q4 Ambulatory Care net operating revenue $1.43 billion, estimate $1.39 billion. Q4 Same hospital admissions (0.7%).
- Medical Equipment & Supplies: EW reported mixed Q4 results while guidance was slightly better; Separately shares of ATRC declined after JP Morgan downgraded to Neutral noting EW announced today the upcoming launch of a surgical LAAC product later this year, a competitive product to AtriCure’s AtriClip, which doesn’t come as a surprise as the company had already filed patents and trademarks for a product.
Industrials & Materials
- In Construction: QXO entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Kodiak Building Partners from Court Square Capital Partners for approximately $2.25 billion. The purchase price comprises $2.0 billion of cash and 13.2 million shares, with QXO retaining the right to repurchase these shares at $40 per share; MLM earnings out as quarterly revs missed and guided 2026 revs $6.42B-$6.78B which was below the $6.86B estimate; Benchmark downgraded shares of building product makers IBP and TREX to Hold from Buy.
- In Industrials: GNRC reported Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.61 misses the $1.77 est. and revs fell -11.4% y/y to $1.09B also missing consensus but shares bounced on upbeat outlook initiating its FY26 net sales growth guidance to be in the mid-teens percent range as compared to the prior year, which includes a 1% favorable impact from foreign currency. CAT shares up over 4% and making another new all-time high, rising for a 4th straight days and shares are up 35% YTD as a leader in industrials (XLI +12.75% YTD); DE another name in industrials with massive outperformance to start the year.
Aerospace & Defense
- BETA shares rose after AMZN disclosed a stake in the aerospace start-up, as a regulatory filing revealed Amazon owned about 11.8 million shares of Beta, about 5% of the stock outstanding
- In Gov’t IT Services: PSN shares fell after Q4 EPS of $0.75 missed the $0.79 estimate on weaker res $1.6B (est. $1.67B) and guided 2026 revs $6.5B-$6.8B vs. est. $6.7B and SAIC pre-announced Q4 results and lowered FY27 (Jan YE) revenue guidance by 5% citing the government shutdown and delays – said expects FY27 revs to decline vs. prior guidance; shares of comps BAH, KBR, CACI, LDOS were volatile in reaction early.
Materials, Metals & Mining
- Rare Earth/uranium sector: UUUU was initiated at Buy and $30 PT at Goldman Sachs saying the company owns and operates the highest grade Uranium deposit in the US and its strategic White Mesa Mill is the only US facility able to process both Uranium and rare earth elements.
- Metals & Mining: precious metal miners were higher overnight, but pared gains following the strong jobs report, reducing chances of a near term Fed rate cut; In steel, MT was upgraded to Buy at Jefferies saying EU steel is poised to see structurally better EBITDA over the cycle vs history, given trade protectionism. Investor debates include whether steel could be similar to cement, and see a multi-year re-rating
Internet, Media & Telecom
- In Media: Reuters reported Activist investor Ancora Holdings has built a roughly $200 million stake in WBD and plans to oppose its deal to sell its prized TV and film assets to NFLX the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
- In Internet: SHOP shares rose after guiding revenue to rise at a low-thirties percentage rate in Q1, above analysts' average estimate of a 25.2% rise and board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2 billion (which overshadowed a mixed Q4 results as PS missed/revs beat, and GMV was $123.84B in holiday quarter vs $94.46B y/y).
- In Telecom: TMUS Q4 revs were mostly in-line at $24.33B and added 962K monthly-bill-paying phone customers in the quarter, the highest among the big three U.S. wireless carriers but missed ests of around 981K per FactSet; also guided annual adj FCF between $18B-$18.7B vs. est. $18.9B.
Hardware & Software movers:
- In IT Services & Consulting: NET shares jumped following Q4 results that exceeded expectations as Q4 rev accelerated to 34% y/y growth from 31% in the prior quarter, closed its largest annual contract deal ever, averaging $42.5M per year, and total New Acv grew nearly 50% y/y, for Cloudflare's highest growth since CY21. TDC shares surge post earnings results as Q4 EPS $0.74 beats the $0.56 consensus on revs $421M vs. est. $399.7M; Q4 public Cloud rose 15% Y/y and expects full-year 2026 total ARR growth of 2% to 4% Y/y; sees FY26 adj EPS between $2.55-$2.65 vs. est. $2.55.
- Digital Infrastructure: VRT shares jumped as reported mostly in-line quarterly results with organic orders up 252% y/y with better guidance as sees FY26 adjusted EPS $5.97-$6.07, above consensus $5.33 and sees FY26 revenue $13.25B-$13.75B vs. est. $12.39B; said the data center market is showing robust momentum.
- In Software: KVYO reported Q4 revs grew +29.6% YoY (re-accelerating sequentially), NRR +100bps sequentially, Ai usage accelerating (w/ >50% campaigns for adopting customers now Ai-generated), raised FY26 rev guide (from +21.5% to +22.0%). FRSH reported better-than-expected Q4 results with non-GAAP EPS, 18.7% operating margin (consensus 14.7%) on revenue of $223M topping views and guidance was better than expected on the top line but lower on EPS.
- Security Software: RPD shares tumbled as delivered modest upside to ARR expectations in Q4, adding about $2M in NNARR to bring ARR growth flat on a y/y basis. UBS downgraded to Neutral citing a disappointing Q4 report and cautious guidance for CY26, which includes a forecast for revenue to decline 2% y/y.
- Gaming Software: Unity (U) shares declined as a weaker Q1 revenue forecast of $480M-$490M, missing consensus view of $491.78M, and below prior quarter of $503M weighed on sentiment.
Semiconductors:
- ALAB Q4 results exceeded consensus with strong performance across the Scorpio, Aries and Taurus product lines, but shares fell as the EPS guide was disappointing given the step-up in opex and the elevated buy-side expectation following CRDO's 2/9 positive preannouncement.
- GFS guided Q1 EPS and revs just above consensus citing strong execution and disciplined cost management for stronger growth and also approves a share buyback worth $500M.
- LSCC reported slightly better Q4 results and higher Q1 guidance, driven by C&C. C&C grew +60% Y/y in Q4 (server +85% Y/y in 2025), while I&A was-10% Y/y and guided C&C to grow >40% in 2026, and I&A to grow >15%, with 2026 revs guided to exceed the prior 20% framework.
- Memory stocks were strong early (MU, SNDK) after Reuters reported Samsung executive said expects strong demand for memory chips to continue this year and extend into next, citing robust demand driven by artificial Intelligence. Song Jai-hyuk, the chief technology officer for Samsung chip division, also said at the SEMICon trade show customer feedback on the company's next-generation high-bandwidth memory chip, or HBM4, has been "very satisfactory."