Early Look

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Global stock markets are broadly lower, with sharp declines in Asia and Europe as Brent Crude futures jump 6.75% or $7.20 to $114.60 per Barrel (currently at around overnight highs), while WTI crude is only up +0.5% at $96.80 per Barrel following attacks on some of the Middle East’s most important energy facilities. The region’s diesel benchmark was trading north of $180 a barrel at the highest level in almost four years. Iran attacked a major LNG site in Qatar, one of several energy assets it pledged to target, while Saudi Arabia is said to be assessing damage at its Samref refinery and the kingdom also intercepted a ballistic missile heading toward Yanbu. Oil has surged about 50% since the start of the war just three weeks ago with no signs of easing tensions. In Europe, natural gas soared as much as 35% after damage to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export plant. On Wednesday, Brent settled at $107.38 a barrel, its highest closing level since mid-2022. In stock news overnight, Micron (MU) shares tumble despite quarterly results and guidance that crushed estimates as plans for heftier CAPEX spending ‌unnerved investors. The company said it is boosting its 2026 capital spending plan by $5B to meet growing demand, bringing its total investment for the current fiscal year to more than $25B (note shares were up 61% this year so far after +240% in 2025). April gold plunging -4.4% to $4,682 an ounce, on track for its 7th straight day of declines along with Silver. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -1,868 points or 3.38% to settle at 53,372, the Shanghai Index dropped -56 points to 4,006, and the Hang Seng Index declined -524 points to 25,500. In Europe, the German DAX is down -514 points to 22,988, while the FTSE 100 slides -187 points to 10,117.

Wall Street's major averages closed lower on Wednesday, erasing two days of gains as the PPI wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same, with a hawkish tilt to commentary. The benchmark S&P 500 finished -1.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite ended -1.5%, and the blue-chip Dow closed -1.6%. Over in the bond market, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points higher at 4.27%, while the 2-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 3.78%. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In its communication, the Fed cited the uncertainty of the Middle East conflict as Chair Jerome Powell said, "It's too soon to know" what potential effects the Middle East conflict will have on the U.S. economy. In economic news, the February Producer Price Index came in hotter at +0.7% MoM vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.5% prior. Core PPI (excludes foods and energy) was +0.5% MoM vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.8% prior. In geopolitical news, Iran launched a new wave of attacks against oil infrastructures in the UAE, and U.S. President Donald Trump's request of several allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz was broadly rejected.

Major averages late yesterday came up on key technical support levels as the Nasdaq 100 QQQ’s fell -1.44% at $594.65 holding just above its 200dma support $592.20 and the S&P 500 SPY declined -1.35% at $661.50 holding just above its 200dma support of $659.77, while the CBE Volatility index (VIX) moved back above the 25 level. Treasury yields were broadly higher with the 10-yr up around 6 bps at 4.25% while the 2-yr yield gained 10bps to 3.78%.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -768.11 points, or 1.63%, to 46,225.15
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -327.11 points, or 1.46%, to 22,152.42
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -41.36 points, or 1.64% to 2,478.64

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.85M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for March…est. 10.0
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for January…est. 720K
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for January…est. +0.2%
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: CURV ECOR ETON FDX GEMI GRWG IDN NYXH PL SCHL YSS

• Goldman Sachs Inaugural Intermountain Health Tech Conference, 3/19-3/20, in Park City, Utah
• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Sidoti Smallcap Conference, 3/8-3/19 (virtual)

• In Europe, benchmark natural gas prices surged more than 30% and have now more than doubled since the war began on February 28 as QatarEnergy said that its Ras Laffan LNG hub had sustained “extensive damage,” after being attacked by Iranian missiles twice in 12 hours. Ras Laffan is the largest LNG facility in the world.
• Iran has threatened further attacks across the Middle East, naming Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as likely targets. Two oil refineries in Riyadh have already found themselves in the midst of attacks.
• Copper prices fall to their lowest level in three months, as oil spikes following Iranian attacks in the Middle East, stoking inflation fears and stronger U.S. dollar amid weakening rate-cut expectations; shares of FCX, SCCO, TECK are trading lower with copper prices.

• Five Below (FIVE) Q4 adj EPS $4.31 vs est $4.00 on sales $1.73B vs est $1.705B, comps +15.4%; guides Q1 sales $1.18-1.20B vs est $1.103B, comps +14-16%, adj EPS $1.57-1.69 vs est $0.96; sees FY sales $5.2-5.3B vs est $5.223B, comps +3-5% and adj EPS $7.74-8.25 vs est $7.04.

• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Q4 EPS loss (-$1.66) vs. est. loss (-$0.90); Q4 revs $1.26B below consensus $1.35B; Q4 total solar module shipments recognized as revenues were 4.3 GW, down 16% q/q and down 47% y/y; sees Q1 revenue $900M-$1.1B, vs. consensus $1.55B and sees Q1 gross margin 13%-15%.
• Critical Metals Corp (CRML) announces secondary offering of up to 2.7M ordinary shares by selling securityholder.
• Newmont (NEM), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) underperform as copper gave up its gains for this year and gold declined for a seventh day, as the worsening war in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher and increased the risk of damage to the global economy.
• Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Q2 GAAP EPS loss of (-$0.17) below consensus loss (-$0.19) and revenue rose 172% sequentially of $26.23M beats by $2.31M

• Reviva Pharmaceuticals (RVPH) announces common stock and warrants offering.

• Samsung Electronics Co. (SSNLF) said it plans to spend more than 110 trillion won ($73.3 billion) on chip capacity expansion and research this year, devoting a record amount of capital toward an effort to seize the lead in AI semiconductors. Korea’s largest company is hiking investment 22% in 2026
• Accenture (ACN) Q2 EPS $2.93 tops consensus $2.84 on revs $18B vs. est. $17.84B; said delivered record second quarter bookings of $22.1B, including a record 41 clients with quarterly bookings greater than $100M; full-year revenue growth to be 3% to 5% and sees FY adj EPS $13.65-$13.90 vs. est. $13.9.
• Dlocal (DLO) Q4 EPS $0.18 vs est $0.18, adj EBITDA $78.4M vs est $72.38M on revs $338M vs est $297.6M, gr mgn 34%; sees FY TPV +50-60% yr/yr, gr profit +22.5-27.5% yr/yr and EBIT +27.5-32.5% yr/yr vs est +33.34%.
• Logitech’s (LOGI) Board of Directors approves new $1.4B share buyback program.
• Qnity (Q) collaborates with Nvidia (NVDA) to accelerate innovation for Semiconductor and advanced Electronics Materials.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, March 19, 2026

U.S. stocks are adding to yesterday’s sharp losses as another surge in oil adds to inflation/recession fears following escalating attacks by Iran and other Middle East countries on each other’s energy infrastructure. The latest rounds of economic data showing hotter inflation at the wholesale level (PPI yesterday) also not helping sentiment with rate cut possibility by the Fed seeming a long shot anytime soon, while rate hike fears rise. War concerns grow sending U.S. stocks lower, while European gas prices surged 30% and Brent crude oil gained 10% after Iran attacked energy infrastructure in the Middle East in retaliation against Israeli attacks on it gas facilities, marking the biggest escalation of the nearly three-week war. The Iranian aerial attacks caused extensive damage to the world's largest gas plant in Qatar, targeted a refinery in Saudi Arabia (impacting LNG), forced the United Arab Emirates to shut gas facilities and started fires at two Kuwaiti refineries. The price of benchmark Brent crude rose to above $119 a barrel on Thursday, while gas prices in Europe were double the level seen in late February prior to the war. LNG markets disrupted after QatarEnergy CEO said to Reuters, Iran’s attacks on Qatar have damaged facilities that produce 17% of the company’s liquefied natural gas export capacity and it will take three to five years to repair them. Gold drops over 7% to lows of $4,505/oz and silver falls more than -12% below $70/oz as rates cuts are priced out due to rising inflation and the Iran War. Copper prices hit 3 month lows as gold/silver/copper miner shares tumble. Bitcoin falls over 2% of $1,600 and now goes down by over -$5,000 in 24 hours, dropping below $70,000 as the broader selloff accelerates. Most sectors lower here with Energy, Utilities and Healthcare leading. Both the SPY and QQQ’s dropped below their respective 200dma technical supports.

Not helping matters is the inflation spike due to surging oil as PPI results were notably above consensus estimates in yesterday’s data and the Fed gave no indication of rates cuts anytime soon due to the uncertain impact from the Middle East was on the economy. As of today, traders no longer price in Fed interest rate cut during 2026 (had seen one or two just last week). Charlie Bilello tweets: "The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation Reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%)." Treasury 2-year yield climbs 11 basis points on day to 3.88%, the highest since July 30, 2025, and 10-year above 4.3%.

• Philadelphia Fed business conditions for March stronger at 18.1, topping consensus 10.0 and above February 16.3; the inflation reading hotter as prices paid index March 44.7 vs February 38.9; Philadelphia Fed new orders index March weaker at 8.6 vs February 11.7, employment index March 0.8 vs February -1.3, six-month capital expenditures outlook March 25.8 vs February 14.4 and six-month business conditions March 40.0 vs 42.8.
• January single-family home sales fell -17.6% at 587,000 unit annual rate, well below the consensus of 720,000; January new home supply 9.7 months' worth at current pace vs Dec 8.0 months while the January median sale price $400,500, -6.8% from Jan 2025 ($429,600).
• January wholesale inventories fell -0.5% below consensus +0.2% while U.S. Jan wholesale sales +0.5%, which was above consensus +0.3%.

• Metals & Mining sector: sharp declines across the board for copper stocks (FCX, SCCO, TECK), gold miners (AEM, GOLD, NEM), and silver miners (AG, HL, PAAS, CDE) as copper prices fall to their lowest level in three months with oil spiking following Iranian attacks in the Middle East, stoking inflation fears, slowing growth and stronger U.S. dollar amid weakening rate-cut expectations. Note mining is extremely energy-intensive (diesel for trucks and haulers, fuel for generators, power, explosives, and transport in often remote operations). Overseas, the region’s diesel benchmark was trading north of $180 a barrel at the highest level in almost four years. Aluminum falls more than 8% on LME, biggest drop since 2018, sending AA, CENX shares lower as well.
• In Railroads: Evercore ISI downgraded CSX to In Line from Outperform saying with shares up 51% from their 52-week low and up 9.35% year-to-date, believes much of the organic and potential inorganic upside is currently reflected in the stock. The firm upgraded UNP to Outperform saying although the merger related "trading purgatory" likely still exists, Union Pacific is operating at an elite level. Separately, Argus lowered estimates on CNI saying tariffs between the U.S. and Canada, as well as overall economic uncertainty, hurt results for the company in the quarter and may impact some of its high-margin markets in 2026.

• CAL +13%; shares surge in footwear after posting a smaller than expected smaller adj loss as revs rose 8.7% to $695M topping ests $685M, driven by the growth of its e-commerce business, but swung to a loss on higher costs
• DRI +2%; reported weaker-than-expected results as EPS of $2.68 missed the $2.94 consensus with in-line quarterly sales of $3.34B while comparable sales growth of Olive Garden rose 3.2%, Longhorn Steakhouse up 7.2%, and a 2.1% increase for the chain’s fine dining restaurants; but raised its annual forecast for comp sales.
• FIVE +6%; shares rose after posting their best holiday quarter in history as delivered better-than-expected quarterly profit as value-seeking consumers looked for lower-priced goods;  Q4 adj EPS $4.31 vs est $4.00 on sales $1.73B vs est $1.705B, comps +15.4%; guides Q1 sales $1.18-1.20B vs est $1.103B.
• RIVN +6%; as UBER said it will invest up to $1.25B as part of a deal in which they will start deploying 10,000 fully autonomous R2 SUVs as robotaxis from 2028. UBER will make an initial investment of $300M, and will fund the remaining amount through 2031, subject to Rivian meeting certain autonomous milestones.
• VG +6%; along with gains in other LNG US stocks (LNG, GLNG, FLNG) as Iran’s attacks on Qatar have damaged facilities that produce 17% of the company’s liquefied natural gas export capacity and it will take three to five years to repair them, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters in an interview on Thursday.

• CSIQ -27%; as guidance weighs; tumbled after posts larger Q4 EPS loss (-$1.66) vs. est. loss (-$0.90); Q4 revs $1.26B below consensus $1.35B; Q4 total solar module shipments recognized as revenues were 4.3 GW, down 16% q/q and down 47% y/y; sees Q1 revenue $900M-$1.1B, well below consensus $1.55B.
• FCX -7%; Copper prices fall to their lowest level in three months, as oil spikes following Iranian attacks in the Middle East, stoking inflation fears and stronger U.S. dollar amid weakening rate-cut expectations; shares of FCX, SCCO, TECK are trading lower with copper prices.
• HL -10%; along with sharp declines in other gold and precious metal miners AEM, AG, CDE, FSM, NEM, PAAS, WPM as gold prices tumbled over 5% and silver prices more than 10% as surging oil prices weigh on sentiment.
• MU -3%; reported strong Q2 results and much better than expected Q3 guidance, which meaningfully exceeded as upside was driven by strong DC demand as Cloud CMBU and Core DC grew +163% Y/y and +211% Y/y, respectively; but shares fell after boosting 2026 Capex by $5B, bringing its total investment to more than $25B.
• RCAT -11%; as the drone maker's wider-than-expected Q4 losses cast a shadow on its y/y surge in revenue as Q2 GAAP EPS loss of (-$0.17) below consensus loss (-$0.19) and revenue rose 172% sequentially of $26.23M beats by $2.31M

Closing Recap

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Stocks finish at the lows post FOMC/PPI inflation data. US equities gained overnight to extend upward momentum following Trump comments yesterday on being “ahead” and indicating a couple of weeks, not much longer on Iran.  Oil, similarly, eased overnight on the Trump headlines and indications the US intends to ease Venezuela sanctions to free more oil.  Early gains quickly faded then crossed to red following hotter-than-anticipated PPI and Core PPI as well as a pop in oil on more aggressive comments out of Iran.  That said, with traders further trimming bets on Fed interest-rate cuts in 2026 and a Fed rate decision coming later in the day (expected no change), pre-market moves really weren’t likely to be the most relevant drivers of market levels at day’s end.  By mid-morning stocks were still lower but off the early lows with breadth favoring decliners by almost 3:1 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.55%) versus SPY (-0.42%) and QQQ (-0.30%).  On a sector basis, Industrials (+0.11%), Energy (+0.10%) and Technology (+0.04%) were outperformers while Materials (-0.98%), Health Care (-1.15%) and Consumer Staples (-1.65%) paced the underperformers with three sectors gaining versus eight declining.

In notable data today, on disparity within the S&P 500, @RickRieder had noted 76% of the index constituents were +/-5% or more ytd (even split 38% each way) and @bespokeinvest expanded upon this to note through 3/13, with the S&P 500 lower by less than 3% ytd, approximately 21% of the constituents had move higher or lower by more than 20%.  On a separate note, gasoline prices have risen to $3.84/gallon in the US.  That’s a 31% pop in the past month and the highest level since September 2023.  The impact on consumer spending and disposable income as “driving season” approaches will be worth watching.  On rates, it is worth noting the market is now pricing in the highest probabilities of either one 25bps cut or none at all for the US this year, while two 25bps hikes are now priced in for the ECB in 2026.  At least US Fed cut expectations have come down so perhaps disappointment will be minimal.

The Fed did not surprise with its decision to leave rates unchanged, and the statement also held few noteworthy changes.  Stocks initially rallied a bit, then reversed course and returned to pre-announcement levels.  Expectations remained for a single cut during 2026.  Multiple comments by Powell noting the Fed has not seen as much progress as hoped on core goods inflation did further pressure stocks and as often seems to be the case, the initial reaction following the release was not the ultimate move and stocks continued to slip heading into the final hour of trading.  Breadth expanded to almost 4:1 in favor of decliners as small caps continued to underperform and Energy was the lone sector ETF in the green, while Consumer Staples continued to be the largest laggard.

• January factory orders edged higher +0.1% M/M vs. +0.1% consensus and -0.4% (revised from -0.7%) prior while U.S. Jan factory orders ex-transportation +0.4% vs Dec +0.6% (prev +0.4%).
• MBA weekly data showed US mortgage purchase index climbs 0.9% to 172.9 in latest week as the mortgage market index -10.9% to 347.1 in week and mortgage refinance index falls 18.5% to 1,341.0 as the average 30-year mortgage rate climbs 11 bps to 6.30% in March 13 week, highest since December 2025.

• April WTI crude oil slipped overnight but quickly rebounded following headlines noting Israeli attacks on portions of Iran’s gas fields and Iran’s assertion it will retaliate. Iran later specified a list of potential energy targets across multiple countries and said they could be struck soon. Beyond the geopolitical strife, we saw EIA data today noting a crude inventory build versus the expected draw, but it was not sufficient to keep a lid on prices early.  A mid-afternoon headline noting the Trump administration is expected to soon lift summer gasoline regulations to curb energy prices did briefly push prices lower, but futures settled up $0.11/bbl, or +0.11%, at $96.32.

• In Department Stores: Macy’s (M) shares rose after reported better-than-expected adjusted EPS and sales results for its fourth quarter and gave guidance that was better than some analysts feared; Same-store sales at locations open for more than a year rose 1.8%, better than the -0.9% consensus decline.
• In Food & Beverages: GIS posted weaker-than-expected adj Q3 EPS ($0.64 vs. est. $0.73) on weaker sales ($4.37B vs. $4.43B est.) and said it expects both its sales and profit to continue to decline in the fiscal year as backs FY26 adjusted EPS view down 16%-20% and backs FY26 organic net sales view down 1.5%-2%.
• In Beverages: STZ was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup as it forecast a beer topline acceleration in FQ4/FY'27 as scanner data has improved and comps remain easy throughout 2026 as STZ cycles beer category weakness, especially among Hispanic consumers (about half of STZ beer consumer base).

• In Education/Learnings: DUOL was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus saying they believe that the company's new strategy focused on increasing the number of its daily average users over monetization is likely to pressure bookings and limit revenue growth in the near term.

• In Nuclear/Power: OKLO reports FY25 EPS loss (-$0.72) with FY25 loss $105.7M and reports FY25 operating expenses $139.294M vs $52.801M last year; announced the U.S. Department of Energy approved the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for Atomic Alchemy's Groves Isotopes Test Reactor in Texas under the DOE's Reactor Pilot Program; TE shares rose after saying Norway's grid operator Statnett assigned 50 megawatts (MW) of power to its 926,000-square-foot industrial building in Mo i Rana. NRG was upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform at Wolfe Research with $190 tgt saying the company has an incumbent retail/generation business in the Texas market that generates significant Free Cash Flow.

• In Crypto/Stablecoin: Citigroup said despite positive rhetoric from some industry players, legislative momentum for CLARITY remains stalled as stakeholders continue to debate key items. Citi says there's still chance for a new markup by late March with the stated goal post remaining April/May for Passage, though this might involve some compromise on the key debate of stablecoin rewards. Maintains CRCL and BLSH as its top picks with both benefiting from more idiosyncratic factors, while downgraded tgts on Bitcoin and Ethereum while downgrading GEMI to Sell on profitability trajectory concerns amidst cyclical challenges and significant restructuring.

• PTGX and its partner JNJ said the FDA approved its oral pill for psoriasis, Icotyde, for patients over the age of 12 with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. It's designed to mimic the effects of top-selling injectable treatments, including ABBV’s Skyrizi and JNJ’s own Tremfya.
• LNTH said the FDA has extended its review of the company's diagnostic imaging kit by three months; the agency will now give its decision on the imaging kit's approval by June 29.
• OVID shares rose after earnings results and reported what it called favorable topline safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics from a study of one of its therapies, OV329; also said it will add complementary development programs for the treatment, expanding into tuberous sclerosis complex seizures and infantile spasms.
• VRTX was upgraded to buy from Hold at Maxim as believes povetacicept can be a blockbuster and has pipeline-in-a-product potential.
• In Healthcare Technology: HCAT was downgraded to EW from OW at Wells Fargo and lower estimates saying revenue and margin pressures appear likely to persist into 2027, while sales and strategy pivots still TBD and unlikely to reverse near-term trends.

• In Aerospace & Defense: SWMR adds to Tuesday gains after the drone technology company soared 520% on Tuesday in their first day of trading; SPIR posted an adjusted Ebitda loss for Q4 that was less than the average analyst estimate
• Fertilizer/Potash chemicals: CF was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho while raise PT to $100 from $95 citing the big run-up in CF and other fertilizer stocks in 2026 for the downgrade saying the gains from the surge in oil and fertilizer prices due to the Middle East conflict have likely already been captured and are overdone and surge in nitrogen prices is not long-lasting.
• Chemicals: LYB was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at UBS and raised its tgt to $73 from $42 saying their sell thesis was predicated on a lower for longer earnings outlook and an unsustainable dividend; but notes since, LYB has since cut its dividend, and the Middle East disruption has had a major change on the S/D outlook for PE/PP near term. BASFY said it is raising the prices of many of its products by up to 30%.

• Chinese Technology: shares of BABA, BIDU were active after reports Alibaba and Baidu lift Cloud prices by up to 34% amid Ai demand surge; The Chinese firms’ price increases are ‘a reasonable response to evolving market conditions (shares of KC, VNET, GDS moved higher early on the reports as well).
• Software sector: cyber security company SAIL declined after guided Q1 revenue between $273M-$277M, below the consensus view for $284M after Q4 revs rose 23% y/y to $295M beating the $292.6M estimate. DOCU posted better-than-expected Q4 EPS while Q1 and full-year revenue guidance also beat analysts' estimates while headline ’27 guides for ARR of 8.25-8.75% and revenue guided to 8.4% vs. the Street at 6.6%.
• In Semiconductors: MU is expected to report earnings tonight after the close.
• Tech Advertising: TTD shares downgraded by Stifel, Rosenblatt after a report in Ad Age said French advertising giant Publicis Groupe told clients it no longer recommends TTD for digital media buying following an audit claiming the audit revealed fees charged beyond what the master service agreement allows

Street Recommendations

Thursday, March 19, 2026

• JNJ Barclays raised the firm's price target on Johnson & Johnson to $234 from $217 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says its analysis confirms the company's "strong" 23% U.S. pharma growth excluding Stelara in Q4 is continuing in Q1, led by strong growth in both its established and emerging U.S. franchises. Barclays upped Johnson & Johnson's estimates as a result.
• MU Barclays analyst Tom O'Malley raised the firm's price target on Micron to $675 from $450 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following last night's earnings report. Micron guided revenue 42% above consensus with gross margins guided to 81%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays says this has "fundamentally changed" its model. The firm now estimates over $100 in earnings per share for Micron in 2027.
• PTGX Barclays raised the firm's price target on Protagonist Therapeutics to $119 from $113 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The FDA approved Icotyde for patients with psoriasis a few months ahead of investor expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TME Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Tencent Music to $20 from $28 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company's competitive landscape has worsened due to AI-content supply on rival platforms. It sees the company playing "defense" in fiscal 2026.

• NVS Bernstein initiated coverage of Novartis with a Market Perform rating and CHF 125 price target. The firm sees five years of annual sales declines between 2031 and 2036 for Novartis. It thinks the stock can be viewed as "richly valued."

• FIVE BofA analyst Robert Ohmes raised the firm's price target on Five Below to $305 from $260 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after Q4 EPS of $4.31 beat BofA and Street estimates on 15.4% comp growth that also beat the firm's and Street's forecasts. The firm raised calendar year 2027 EPS estimates as it believes Five's key merchant led initiatives and marketing initiatives under new leadership should drive traffic, the analyst tells investors.
• JBL BofA raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $295 from $280 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After a "strong" fiscal Q2 and raised FY26 outlooks with sales and earnings forecasts above the Street view, the firm thinks the company's margin guidance "could prove conservative," the analyst tells investors.

• STLA Citi analyst Harald Hendrikse lowered the firm's price target on Stellantis to EUR 7 from EUR 8 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Citi also added an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on Stellantis. The firm remains cautious on the shares due to U.S. and Europe profitability concerns. However, the stock can experience a change in investor sentiment after dropping 39% in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• M Citi analyst Paul Lejuez lowered the firm's price target on Macy's to $18 from $24 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q4 report as good but says its challenges remain. The macro environment remains a risk for Macy's, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MU Citi analyst Atif Malik raised the firm's price target on Micron to $510 from $430 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported "blowout earnings" but the shares are moving lower on higher capex in fiscal 2027 and peak gross margins concerns, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi thinks the stock could sustain gains but sees risk of money rotating into semiconductor capital equipment in the near-term on higher capital expenditures.

• UNP Evercore ISI upgraded Union Pacific to Outperform from In Line with a price target of $262, up from $260. Although the merger related "trading purgatory" likely still exists, Union Pacific is operating "at an elite level," which is translating into strong volume growth and robust margins for a stock trading at a discount to all but one peer, the analyst tells investors. The merger deal is either going to fall apart, which the firm views as "highly unlikely," shares will be viewed as "a premier growth Industrials equity deserving of a premium multiple" once there is greater line of sight on closing, argues the analyst, who is recommending the stock as the "heads you win, tails you win" stock to own in the group.

• MU Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Micron to $400 from $360 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The stock is expected to remain rangebound after a very strong quarter and guidance that exceeded Street estimates, as elevated expectations were already priced in, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Notably, Micron signed its first five-year strategic customer agreement with firm purchase commitments aimed at stabilizing market dynamics, while HBM, DRAM, and NAND contract prices continue to rise on disciplined supply and robust AI-driven demand, Goldman says.
• CSGP Goldman Sachs analyst George Tong lowered the firm's price target on CoStar Group to $63 from $73 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Online traffic at Homes.com has moderated, with February uniques down 8% year over year, creating incremental pressure on residential revenue, while Apartments.com traffic remains healthier, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Although reduced investment spending should drive meaningful EBITDA margin expansion through 2028, softer bookings trends and potential disclosure changes add uncertainty around revenue transparency and near-term growth, the firm says.

• AMLX Guggenheim analyst Seamus Fernandez raised the firm's price target on Amylyx to $30 from $25 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares based on "high confidence" in a positive LUCIDITY readout with topline data confirmed to be coming in Q3. Data from LUCIDITY could establish avexitide as the first-ever FDA approved treatment for 150,000-plus postbariatric hypoglycemia patients in the U.S., the analyst tells investors.

• KNSL Jefferies analyst Andrew Andersen downgraded Kinsale Capital to Underperform from Hold with a price target of $312, down from $392. Excess and surplus growth is "rolling over and history points to a multi-year slowdown," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees this pressuring Kinsale just as industry competition and capital limit re-hardening. Growth increasingly depends on casualty, but pricing momentum has moderated and the company's mix shift creates margin headwinds as rate and reserve tailwinds fade, contends Jefferies. It believes the stock's valuation is "too high."
• ALGS Jefferies assumed coverage of Aligos Therapeutics with a Buy rating and price target of $48, down from $60. The shares look "inexpensive" with the company's oral hepatitis B capsid assembly modulator pevifoscorvir sodium in Phase II with a topline readout in 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says expectations have been reset following prior class failures. However, pevifoscorvir could "meaningfully differentiate on potency," Jefferies contends. It sees an "asymmetric" risk/reward ahead of the 2027 data with Aligos trading near its cash levels.
• OLMA Jefferies analyst Dennis Ding assumed coverage of Olema Oncology with a Buy rating and price target of $40, down from $43. The firm views Olema as a "high quality" oncology company with multiple Phase III breast cancer studies for its "potent" oral CERAN plus KAT6 pipeline. The Phase I KAT6 data in Q2 could expand the oncology franchise beyond breast cancer, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MU JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur raised the firm's price target on Micron to $550 from $350 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's results "were strong and guidance was even better," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Micron's AI-driven demand and structural supply tightness continue to drive pricing power beyond expectations. JPMorgan believes the company's fundamental setup will remain favorable through 2026 and into 2027. The stock's risk/reward is skewed to the upside, contends the firm.
• PTGX JPMorgan analyst Brian Cheng raised the firm's price target on Protagonist Therapeutics to $106 from $95 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after the company received FDA approval for Icotyde. Icotyde's overall label was clean, says JPMorgan, which views the approval positively.
• CNC JPMorgan analyst John Stansel lowered the firm's price target on Centene to $41 from $45 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says the stock's 16% selloff in the past week is a reminder that Managed Medicaid "remains the subsection of managed care (and perhaps healthcare services) with the widest error bars in 2026." JPMorgan lowered Centene's estimates to reflect near-term uncertainty and assumed 2027 Affordable Care Act exchange enrollment contraction.

• MU Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Micron to $520 from $450 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Guidance of $19.15 EPS versus consensus at $12 was "more bullish than most of what we heard from investors," making the stock reaction after hours "a little surprising," the analyst says. However, the debate is "more about duration than peak amplitude," adds the analyst, who is "positive about that debate." For next quarter, the firm models close to company guidance and for FY26 its revenue and EPS estimates move up from $86.08B and $41.89 to $110.49B nad $59.36, respectively.
• GIS Morgan Stanley analyst Megan Alexander Clapp lowered the firm's price target on General Mills to $37 from $44 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The Q3 EPS miss was driven by unexpected gross margin pressure and while a path to sequential organic sales growth improvement in FY27 exists, visibility to a return to growth remains limited, the analyst tells investors. The firm is lowering FY27 estimates by 8%, the analyst added.
• FIVE Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Five Below to $245 from $220 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company has strong comp momentum and its growth story is "attractive," but it is "hard to chase the encore of '25 at this multiple," the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

• JAZZ Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Jazz Pharmaceuticals to $232 from $219 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Moving further into 2026, the firm continues to view Jazz as undervalued at a current EV/2026E EBITDA of only seven times in the context of a company that has strong visibility into double-digit overall top-line growth starting in 2027. Though competitive dynamics associated with the oxybate franchise are not lost on Piper, it does not envision said dynamics throwing a wrench into our thinking regarding Jazz's overall growth profile.

• NVDA Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold raised the firm's price target on Nvidia to $323 from $291 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased the company's estimates to reflect management's updated outlook for $1 trillion of cumulative graphic processing unit sales through 2027. This could prove conservative, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James is "incrementally encouraged" that its thesis around inference as a catalyst is playing out, and may even be slightly ahead of schedule.
• TXO Raymond James raised the firm's price target on TXO Partners to $23 from $18 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its estimates following the move in crude prices post Iran conflict and Cross Timbers divestiture.
• JBL Raymond James raised the firm's price target on Jabil to $300 from $260 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. The Q2 results and guidance exceeded expectations, fueled by strong AI-driven demand and solid execution, with FY26 AI revenue raised by $1B to $13.1B and full-year growth now implied at about 14% year over year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Strength across Intelligent Infrastructure, early cyclical recovery in Regulated Industries, and a higher-quality Digital Commerce mix reinforce confidence in sustained AI-led growth and margin expansion beyond FY26, the firm says.
• ET Raymond James added Energy Transfer LP to the firm's Analyst Current Favorites list. The list contains the current favorite stock ideas from the firm's equity analysts. An analyst may only have one "buy" idea on the list at any given time. The relative outlook for Energy Transfer is very attractive, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• GIS Stifel analyst Matthew Smith lowered the firm's price target on General Mills to $44 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Looking ahead to FY27, the firm estimates modestly positive organic growth, sequentially improving from its FY26 estimate, and the profit outlook with "several puts and takes" that Stifel believes will result in a flattish earnings performance, the analyst tells investors.
• SPIR Stifel raised the firm's price target on Spire Global to $16 from $14 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Spire reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of expectations and offered annual revenue guidance that has visibility into about 75% of the $80M midpoint range for 2026, the analyst noted following the company's quarterly report.

• FIVE UBS raised the firm's price target on Five Below to $285 from $255 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Five Below delivered a strong Q4 with a 15.4% comp, meeting elevated expectations and demonstrating broad-based momentum driven by refreshed merchandising and marketing initiatives heading into 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Guidance appears conservative, implying a sharp back-half deceleration and no gross margin benefit from potential IEEPA tariff repeal, positioning the company for continued upward estimate revisions, UBS says.
• TSLA UBS is calling for Tesla to deliver 345,000 deliveries in Q1, down 18% quarter over quarter but up 2% year over year, below the firm's prior estimate and consensus, with storage deployments of 15.1 GWh, though deliveries are viewed as less influential on the stock than in the past, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Share performance appears increasingly driven by narrative and AI-related initiatives such as Robotaxi and Optimus, while the core auto business remains critical to funding growth investments, including about $20B in planned capex this year, UBS says. The firm has a Sell rating and $352 price target on Tesla shares.
• NKE UBS analyst Jay Sole lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $58 from $62 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Channel checks indicate soft global sales momentum through March, leading to expectations for roughly in-line Q3 EPS and a below-consensus implied Q4 EPS outlook of 3c-18c versus the Street at 23c, with Q4 sales likely down low-single digits ex-FX and no initial FY27 guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ALXO Wells Fargo initiated coverage of ALX Oncology with an Overweight rating and $5 price target. The firm thinks the near-term update for the evorpacept plus zanidatamab combo in metastatic breast cancer will further validate ALX's CD47-high enrichment strategy. Wells says the update will de-risk the ASPEN-Breast readout in mid-2027. It likes the setup for ALX shares.
• VOR Wells Fargo initiated coverage of Vor Bio with an Overweight rating and $30 price target. The firm believes the company's telitacicept is "derisked" in two indications that represent $5B in peak sales. The Phase 3 generalized myasthenia gravis data in the first half of 2027 could be major inflection for the shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells thinks the stock can work ahead of the readout.
• REGN Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Regeneron to $825 from $800 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm thinks new drugs and mechanisms such as CD20, BAFF/APRILs, and next generation complement Inhibitors have potential to expand the generalized Myasthenia Gravis market by more than threefold in the next 10 years, to $15B U.S. and $20B global sales in 2036. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Amgen (AMGN) and Regeneron (REGN) could be the biggest beneficiaries here, and Wells is of the view that there is upside to Street numbers.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for February
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization for February
• 10:00 AM ET NAHB Housing Market Index for March

• Earnings After the Close: AGRO AREN CATX DCGO GETY KLTR LIDR NGS PLBY SMTC TBRG ZEPP

• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Piper 26^th Annual Energy Conference, 3/16-3/18, in Las Vegas, NV

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for February
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $16B in 20-year auction
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BOBS CBUS DOCU HQY IZEA KMTS LULU NN NRGV OKLO QFIN SCOR TRVI TTAM ZTO

• Bank America 2026 Automotive Summit, 3/17
• Bank America Global Industrials Conference, 3/17-3/19
• Keybanc Virtual Healthcare Forum, 3/17-3/18
• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Piper 26^th Annual Energy Conference, 3/16-3/18, in Las Vegas, NV

• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline Y/Y for February
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core - Ex: Food & energy M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET PPI core - Ex: Food & energy Y/Y for February
• 10:00 AM ET                 Durable Goods orders M/M for January
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Interest rate Meeting – no change is expected
• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long-term TIC flows for January

• Earnings After the Close: ALVO DLO FIVE HYPR MU RCAT USIO

• Keybanc Virtual Healthcare Forum, 3/17-3/18
• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Piper 26^th Annual Energy Conference, 3/16-3/18, in Las Vegas, NV
• Sidoti Smallcap Conference, 3/8-3/19 (virtual)

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for March
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for January
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: CURV ECOR ETON FDX GEMI GRWG IDN NYXH PL SCHL YSS

• Goldman Sachs Inaugural Intermountain Health Tech Conference, 3/19-3/20, in Park City, Utah
• Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference, 3/16-3/19
• Sidoti Smallcap Conference, 3/8-3/19 (virtual)

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