Early Look

Friday, February 27, 2026

U.S. futures are looking lower to start the day, and end the week/month, as the Nasdaq is set for its worst monthly returns since March of last year with technology stocks (XLK, XLC), along with weakness in Financials (XLF) doing most of the damage. Meanwhile, stocks with less exposure to AI are climbing higher as Utilities (XLU) are set to rise 9% in February, Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) are both on track for monthly gains of over 7.5% and Industrials (XLI) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are on track for gains of more than 6% in February. Month to date the Nasdaq is down -2.5%. Nearly 40% of the S&P 500’s value is concentrated in mega-cap technology stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG). Nerves about AI disrupting business models continue to wreak havoc on software companies. In focus this morning the January Producer Price Index (PPI) data is due at 8:30 am et with estimates: Headline final M/M for January est. +0.3% (prior +0.5%) and Y/Y est. +2.6% (prior +3.0%). The core PPI (ex: Food & Energy final M/M for January est. +0.3% (prior +0.7%) and Y/Y for January est. +3.0% (prior +3.3%).

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 96 points to 58,850, the Shanghai Index rose 16 points to 4,162, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 249 points to 26,630. In Europe, the German DAX is up 5 points to 25,294, while the FTSE 100 is up 37 points to 10,884. Oil prices jump back above 7 month highs as US and Iranian officials ended the latest round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday by agreeing to reconvene as soon as next week, opening the door to further diplomacy even as President Donald Trump masses military forces in the region. Treasury yields are slumping ahead of the PPI data, with the 10-year yield under 4% (watching interest rate sensitive sectors like home builders, lenders, mortgage names, etc. on the lower drop in rates).

In other stock news, Netflix (NFLX) shares jump overnight after saying they have dropped out of the fight to buy Warner Bros. (WBD), clearing the way for rival bidder Paramount Skydance Corp. to clinch its $111 billion deal for the historic Hollywood studio. Jack Dorsey’s Block (XYZ) shares jumped overnight around 20% after announcing more than 40% job cuts in the first sign of job impacts due to AI. The AI impact on corporate companies and job cuts became a reality last night after Block (XYZ) CEO Jack Dorsey said on their call after cutting 4,000 staffers, “I don’t think we’re early to this realization,” he said. “I think most companies are late. Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes. I’d rather get there honestly and on our own terms than be forced into it reactively.” Block’s cuts are the latest case of workforce reductions across fintech and the broader technology sector, in which companies have pointed to AI as a catalyst.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 17.05 points, or 0.03%, to 49,499.20
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -270.17 points, or 1.18%, to 22,878.38
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 13.96 points, or 0.52% to 2,677.29

• 8:30 AM ET                   Producer Price Index (PPI) Headline final Y/Y for January…est. +2.6% (prior +3.0%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) final M/M for January…est. +0.3% (prior +0.7%)
• 8:30 AM ET PPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) final Y/Y for January…est. +3.0% (prior +3.3%)
• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for February…est. 52.8 (prior 54.0)
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for November…+0.3%
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• eBay (EBAY) will lay off about 6.5% of its global workforce, or roughly 800 employees, as part of an effort to cut costs and restructure the business. "We are taking steps to reinvest across our business and align our structure with our strategic priorities, which will affect certain roles across our workforce," a company spokesperson said.
• Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Q4 adj EPS $1.74 vs. est. $1.85; Q4 revs $4.74B below consensus $4.93B; said it now expects full-year 2026 revenue of $7.8B in the U.S., a near 10% miss from analysts' $8.7B estimate; FY26 guidance of +4% y/y adjusted ebitda to $2.97B vs. est. $3.5B.
• Monster Beverage (MNST) Q4 adj EPS $0.51 vs est $0.48 on revs rose 17.6% y/y to $2.13B vs est $2.04B; Sales in Monster Energy Drinks segment increased 18.9% to $1.99B, driven by strong consumer demand and said sales outside the U.S. rose 26.9% to $903.3 mln, contributing 42% of total net sales

• NuScale Power (SMR) FY EPS ($2.17) vs est ($1.89) on revs $31.5Mm vs est $40.86Mm and vs $37M y/y; notes remain the first and only SMR technology to have received design approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, including our uprated 77 MWe NuScale Power ModuleTM.
• Sunrun (RUN) Q4 EPS $0.38 vs. est. 38c, consensus loss (-$0.06); Q4 revs $1.16Bvs. est. $610.29M; storage attachment rate reached a record 71% in Q4, up from 62% in the prior year, contributing to its financial performance; said paid down $81M of recourse debt in Q4.
• Talen Energy (TLN) Q4 adj EBITDA $382Mm vs est $344.56Mm; reaffirms FY view adj EBITDA $1.75-2.05B vs est $2.068B and adj FCF $980Mm - $1.18B.

• Compass Inc. (COMP) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.07) vs. est. $0.02; Q4 revs fell -5.1% y/y to $468.5M vs. est. $472.8M; Q4 net income (-$78.8M) vs. est. $9.8M; expects 2026 subsidiary Adjusted EBITDA between $345M-$395.
• Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) Q4 EPS $0.06 vs est $0.14, adj EBITDA $81Mm vs est $78.58Mm on revs $159.9Mm vs est $151.38Mm.
• Intuit (INTU) Q2 adj EPS $4.15 vs est $3.67 on revs $4.7B vs est $4.534B; guides Q3 revs $8.52-8.55B vs est $8.522B and adj EPS $12.45-12.51 vs est $12.95; sees FY revs $21-21.19B vs est $21.213B and adj EPS $22.98-23.18 vs est $23.19.
• Mara Holdings (MARA) announces strategic partnership with Starwood to accelerate delivery of cutting edge hyperscale, enterprise and Ai capable digital infrastructure; Q4 revs $202Mm vs est $256.84Mm, adj EBITDA ($1.5)B vs est $33.91Mm.
• Rocket Companies (RKT) Q4 adj EPS $0.11 vs est $0.09 on revs $2.692B vs est $2.255B; guides Q1 adj revs $2.6-2.8B; RKT and COMP announced a three-year strategic alliance aimed at expanding home listing inventory to create a significantly enhanced and affordable home buying and selling experience for American families.

• Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA) announced that its subsidiary entered into an agreement to sell substantially all operations of its biosecurity segment to Tower Biosecurity, Inc. Under the stock purchase agreement Ginkgo Bioworks, Inc. will transfer all equity interests of Ginkgo Biosecurity LLC to Tower Biosecurity in exchange for approximately 20% ownership in Tower Biosecurity on a fully diluted basis.
• Natera Inc. (NTRA) Q4op Exp $466.5Mm on revs $665.5Mm vs est $592.42Mm; guides FY sales $2.62-2.7B vs est $2.232B, gr mgn 63-65%.
• Neurogene (NGNE) shares rise after the FDA granted breakthrough therapy designation to its NGN-401 therapy to treat Rett Syndrome; said the designation was made on interim efficacy and safety data that demonstrates "clinically meaningful and durable functional improvements."
• Novartis (NVS) announced that committee for medicinal products for human use (CHMP) of European Medicines agency (ema) has adopted a positive opinion recommending marketing authorization for remibrutinib. Novartis receives positive CHMP opinion for remibrutinib in chronic spontaneous urticaria.

• MP Materials (MP) Q4 adj EPS $0.09 vs. est. $0.02; Q4 revs $52.68M vs. est. $58.83M; said revs miss after ceased all sales to China, leading to a 14% decline in Q4 revenue, partially offset by increased NdPr oxide and magnetic precursor product sales; plans to break ground on Northlake magnetics facility in 2026; awarded $200 mln incentive for new Texas magnetics facility.
• Rocket Labs (RKLB) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.09) vs. est. loss (-$0.10); Q4 revs rose 38% y/y to $179.65M vs. consensus $178.47M; said delivered record quarterly revenue bringing full year revenue to a record $602M; sees Q1 revenue $185M-$200M, consensus $184.98M; announced it has completed the acquisition of Optical Support.
• The Pentagon and top artificial intelligence lab Anthropic is set to come to a head by 5:01 p.m. (2201 GMT) on Friday over concerns about how the military could use AI at war. The dispute is widely seen as a referendum on how powerful AI could be deployed by the military and how its ‌risks are managed.

• Netflix (NFLX) shares jump overnight after saying they have dropped out of the fight to buy Warner Bros. (WBD), clearing the way for rival bidder Paramount Skydance Corp. to clinch its $111 billion deal for the historic Hollywood studio. The streaming industry leader said that while it believed its deal would have passed muster with regulators and created shareholder value, it didn’t want to keep bidding. Netflix said, “"This year, we'll invest approximately $20B in quality films and series and will expand our entertaining offering. Consistent with our capital allocation policy, we'll also resume our share repurchase program."
• Meta Platforms (META) has signed a deal to rent Google’s (GOOGL) Ai chips, known as tensor processing units, to develop new Ai models, The Information reported. The multi-year deal is worth billions of dollars, said a person who was briefed about it. Meta has also been talking to Google about buying TPUs for its data Centers as soon as next year, though the status of that discussion couldn’t be learned. Both moves show Google is accelerating efforts to compete directly with Nvidia (NVDA) in the Ai chip business.
• Ambarella (AMBA) Q4 adj EPS $0.13 vs. est. $0.10 on in-line revs rising 20% y/y to $100.87M vs. consensus $100.18M; sees Q1 revenue $97M-$103M, vs. consensus $97M and sees Q1 adjusted gross margin 59%-60.5%; said expects revenue to rise 10%-15% this FY vs. consensus $428.5M, or up about 10%.
• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Q4 adj EPS ($0.01) vs est ($0.11) on revs $134.3Mm vs est $132.94Mm, adj gross margin 31.4%; guides Q1 revs $150-165Mm vs est $146.14Mm, adj gross margin 29-31% and adj ESP ($0.09)-$0.00 vs est ($0.05).
• Autodesk (ADSK) Q4 EPS $2.85 vs. consensus $2.64 on revs $1.96B vs. est. $1.91B; sees Q1 EPS $2.82-$2.86 vs. consensus $2.60 and revs $1.885B-$1.9B, above consensus $1.84B; reported AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT revenue rose 17%, to $478M, while revenue in the manufacturing vertical rose 20%, to $381M
• CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.89) vs. est. loss (-$0.68); Q4 revs $1.57B vs. consensus $1.55B; Q4 adj Ebitda $898M vs. est. $932.2M; reported an adjusted loss of $284M, compared with estimates of a loss of $258.9M; revenue backlog was $66.8B as of December 31, 2025.
• Coupang Inc. (CPNG) Q4 EPS loss (-$0.01) vs. est. $0.04; Q4 revs rose 11% y/y to $8.835B, but below consensus $9.09B; Q4 adj Ebitda $267M vs. est. $431M; says data incident estimated to have adversely impacted Q4 revenue growth rates, active customers, profitability, beginning in December.
• Dell Inc. (DELL) shares jumped on results; Q4 adj EPS $3.89 tops consensus $3.51 on better revs $33.38B vs. est. $31.68B; increases cash dividend 20%, adds $10B to share repurchase program; said expects AI servers revenue to grow 103% to about $50 billion in fiscal 2027; expects annual EPS of $12.90, above estimates of $11.59; forecast annual revenue of $138B-$142B, above analysts' average estimate of $125.54B.
• Elastic NV (ESTC) Q3 adj EPS $0.73 vs est $0.65, adj Outperform Inc $83Mm vs est $76.3Mm on revs $450Mm vs est $438.5Mm; sees Q4 revs $445-447Mm vs est $443.47Mm, adj Outperform mgn approx 14.5% and adj EPS $0.55-0.57 vs est $0.56.
• Globant SA (GLOB) Q4 adj EPS $1.54 vs est $1.54 on revs $612.5Mm vs est $605.46Mm, adj gr mgn 37.6%; guides Q1 revs $598-604Mm vs est $599.87Mm and adj EPS $1.44-1.54 vs est $1.49; sees FY revs $2.46-2.51B vs est $2.489B and adj EPS $6.10-6.50 vs est $6.28.
• NetApp Inc. (NTAP) Q3 adj EPS $2.12 vs. consensus $2.06 and revs $1.71B vs. est. $1.7B; narrows FY26 adjusted EPS view to $7.92-$8.02 from $7.75-$8.05 (est. $7.89) and boosts FY26 revenue view to $6.772B-$6.922B from $6.625B-$6.875B (est. $6.76b); Q3 All-flash array revenue grew 11% year-over-year to a record $1.0B.
• nLight Inc. (LASR) Q4 adj EPS $0.14 vs est $0.11, adj EBITDA $10.691Mm vs est $8.25Mm on revs $81.185Mm vs est $76.7Mm, gr mgn 30.7%; guides Q1 revs $70-76Mm vs est $67.43Mm, gr mgn 27-32% and adj EBIDA $5-10Mm vs est $4.672Mm.
• SBA Communications (SBAC) Q4 AFFO/shr $3.19 on revs $719.6Mm vs est $726.15Mm; guides FY revs $2.82-2.86B vs est $2.86B; guides FY revs $2.815-2.86B vs est $2.86B and AFFO/shr $11.84-12.29 vs est $12.75.
• TeraWulf Inc. (WULF) FY revs $168.5Mm vs est $177.85Mm, adj EBITDA ($23.1)Mm vs est $43.7Mm.
• Zscaler (ZS) Q2 adj EPS $1.01 vs est $0.90 on revs $815.751Mm vs est $798.82Mm; sees Q3 revs $834-836Mm vs est $831.88Mm and adj EPS $1.00-1.01 vs est $0.95; see3s FY revs $3.309-3.322B vs est $3.296B and adj EPS $3.99-4.02 vs est $3.81.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, February 27, 2026

U.S. stocks open lower, adding to yesterday declines for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, but markets are paring losses with rebounds in more defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare and consumer staples. Hotter than expected PPI data this morning kinda hurt the “inflation is dead” narrative as core PPI prices jumped above prior month and estimates, pushing out expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut. Dow Transports pull back further after hitting record highs earlier this week as a jump in oil prices amid fears of geopolitical headlines around the situation in Iran hits shares. Treasury yields slumped with the 10-yr falling below 4% for the first time since November, while Bitcoin tumbled back toward $65,000 Friday after investors reduced risk following the release of stronger-than-expected inflation data that damped expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Oil prices rose about 3% on Friday as traders remained on alert for potential supply disruptions after the United States and Iran extended nuclear talks. Lots of earnings out overnight with one more week left to Q4 earnings coming up before Wall Street conference season.

Down again early, the Nasdaq is on pace for its worst monthly returns since March of last year with technology stocks (XLK, XLC), along with weakness in Financials (XLF) doing most of the damage. Meanwhile, stocks with less exposure to AI are climbing higher as Utilities (XLU) are set to rise 9% in February, Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) are both on track for monthly gains of over 7.5% and Industrials (XLI) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are on track for gains of more than 6% in February. Financial stocks (big banks) seeing big pullbacks with XLF -2.2% early, possibly related to the Block (XYZ) news last night of a 40% job staff cuts as the company said AI will replace their jobs (reigniting the AI disruption trade and raising fears of rising unemployment, less spending, and high default rates for banks). Private equity names falling again today after a private credit fund overseen by Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) cut its dividend and marked down the value of its assets amid signs of strain in Parts of its loan book (more below).

• Chicago PMI for February actual reported at 57.7 vs 54.0 previous; and above the est 52.1.
• December construction spending +0.3% (consensus +0.3%)

• In Drones/Aerospace: AMBA shares fell after the U.S. ITC issued a limited exclusion order barring imports of certain Insta360 cameras after finding infringement of a GoPro Design patent (Insta360 is AMBA's largest customer, but Keybanc notes the ruling appears to have a modest financial impact). KTOS shares fell after 14.29M share Spot Secondary priced at $84.00 (down from $92.14 closing price); ACHR announced it will work with Starlink to bring stable, reliable, and high-speed connectivity to its air taxis, marking Starlink's entry into the emerging air Mobility category and an industry-first collaboration. RKLB shares fell as delays Neutron debut to late 2026/reported a narrower-than-expected Q4 loss while ales and guidance also beat analysts' estimates.
• Residential REITs AMH, ESS, INVH all downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James and NXRT to underperform saying rental demand deterioration across multifamily and single-family rental segments accelerates into early 2026, raising concerns that consensus and recently issued 2026 guidance may prove too optimistic. Despite management assumptions of a seasonally normal leasing recovery and improved 2H26 comps, weak leasing trends, elevated new supply and concessions, macro headwinds such as AI-driven job displacement and stricter immigration enforcement, and rising regulatory risks suggest downside risk to earnings expectations.

• DELL +16%; Q4 revenues upside expectations (+39% y/y) exceeding the top end of their guide while EPS was also higher on higher margins; increases cash dividend 20%, adds $10B to share repurchase program and forecast annual revenue of $138B-$142B, above analysts' average estimate of $125.54B.
• FIGS +23%; upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Goldman Sachs saying the magnitude of improvement delivered in Q4 across all key line items and KPIs is much stronger than they forecasted, and management commentary suggests momentum has continued in 1QTD and should support double-digit top line growth in 2026.
• MARA +12%; reported weaker Q4 revs $202M vs. est. $256M with the decline in Bitcoin price during the quarter, as mining revenue declined 19.8% q/q and adjusted EBITDA turned negative, but announces strategic partnership with Starwood to accelerate delivery of cutting edge hyperscale, enterprise and Ai capable digital infrastructure.
• NATL +6%; BCO said it plans to acquire NATL for about $4 billion in cash and stock, a deal that combines two major players in the ATM business. NCR Atleos shareholders will receive $30.00 in cash and 0.1574 shares of Brink's common stock for each share owned, representing an implied value of $50.40 per share.
• NFLX +8%; shares jumped after saying it would drop out of the bidding war for WBD, which late Thursday deemed an offer of $31 a share from PSKY as superior. Many analysts viewed that Netflix was overpaying with its original $82 billion offer for Warner Bros. streaming and studios assets and removes an overhang.
• NGNE +14%; shares jumped after the FDA granted breakthrough therapy designation to its NGN-401 therapy to treat Rett Syndrome; said the designation was made on interim efficacy and safety data that demonstrates "clinically meaningful and durable functional improvements."
• XYZ +16%; delivered a strong 4Q25 and 2026 financial guide while announced a major organizational shift, reducing its workforce by 40%+ to operate with smaller, highly skilled teams and accelerate automation through AI, and supporting 2026 earnings targets well ahead of the consensus estimate.

• CRI -16%; shares dropped after the children’s clothing company’s adj. EPS forecast for Q1 fell well short of analysts’ estimates ($0.02-$0.08 vs. est. $0.36), overshadowing better-than-expected results in Q4.
• CRWV -11%; shares fell after reported a wider Q4 loss than expected while Q1 sales guidance (sees Q1 revenue $1.9B-$2.0B, consensus $2.24B) and fiscal-year adjusted operating margin outlook also missed expectations; increased backlog more than 4x in 4Q with expansions from its leading two hyperscaler customers.
• DUOL -18%; guides FY bookings $1.27-1.3B vs est $1.39B, revs $1.20-1.22B vs est $1.262B and adj EBITDA $299-305Mm vs est $384.44Mm; overall material revenue growth deceleration – from 35% Y/Y in Q4 to 15%-18% in 2025 – and EBITDA Margin declines – from 30% in FY25 to 25% in FY26.
• EBS -20%; as reported Q4 revenue of $148.7M, well below the consensus $217.5M and guided Q1 revs $135M-$155M vs. est. $275M and lower FY26 revs noting revenues from Naloxone products decreased 41% primarily due to increased competition.
• FLUT -14%; shares fell after Q4 EPS and revs missed consensus ($1.74/$4.74B below consensus $1.85/$4.93B) and guided '26E US EBITDA to $850M–$1.25B, below $1.4B consensus; also reported Q4 EBITDA below expectations by 9% as missed across all its segments, with U.S. EBITDA missing expectations by 10%.
• KTOS -7%; after 14.29M share Spot Secondary priced at $84.00 (down from $92.14 closing price)
• SG -13%; reported Q4 comp sales of down -11.5%, modestly below consensus, while for FY26, comp sales guidance of down 2% to down 4% is 320bps below consensus.
• ZS -13%; shares declined despite beat for Q2 and FY26 guide was also raised organically for both ARR and revenue, but shares fell as Piper noted the 7% organic NNARR growth in F'Q2 and single digit guide for 2H appeared modest after a 15% FQ1.

Closing Recap

Thursday, February 26, 2026

U.S. stocks finished mixed as the Dow, Transports and Smallcaps saw gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined behind weakness in technology shares. The Nasdaq is on pace for a 6^th negative week in last 7 and on track for its weakest month since March of last year (-2.85% MTD) and is now back in negative territory for the year. A big area of weakness today was technology, especially semiconductors as a strong/better Q4/guidance from NVDA last night failed to muster a rally in the shares, weighing on the sector. Semiconductors (SMH) tumbled after hitting all-time highs on Wednesday, after profit taking post. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell around -3.5% after having surged nearly 20% year-to-date (YTD), while the S&P 500 Tech (XLK) is down -0.67%, the Mag 7 group of stocks (MAGS -4% YTD) and Software (IGV) down -21% YTRD. The SOX ended Wednesday at 8,467.43, and posted record highs, and is on track to rise for an 11th straight week. The SOX rose 11 weeks in a row in November 2017. While Semis fell, Software (IGV) rallied on this second to last day of the month, in a rotation in tech (for today at least). Dow Transports outperformed, with broad strength though truckers/freight names led the gains (LSTR, JBHT, CHRW, ODFL) with Dow Transports +2.5% or around 500 points to above 19,800. Smallcaps also outperformed as the Russell 2000 stayed strong this afternoon. Financials (XLF) saw solid gains, rising over 1% in a rebound from weakness earlier this week and Energy stocks (XLE) led despite oil prices sliding late day. Next up for tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM ET, the January Producer Price Index (PPI) data is due with estimates: Headline final M/M for January est. +0.3% (prior +0.5%) and Y/Y est. +2.6% (prior +3.0%). The core PPI (ex: Food & Energy final M/M for January est. +0.3% (prior +0.7%) and Y/Y for January est. +3.0% (prior +3.3%).

Weekly sentiment data showed: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index slipped to 74.93 (first Reading in the 70s since last July) from last week's 82.87 - 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 was the highest since 7-3-24 - 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 - Last Quarter Average (Q4) of 92.26; 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -6.6% vs -2.4% last week. Bulls fall to 33.2% from 34.5%, Neutrals fall to 27% from 28.5%, Bears rise to 39.8% from 36.9%.

• The weekly average mortgage rate has dropped to 6.01%, its lowest level since September 2022. That has pushed the median U.S. monthly housing payment down to $2,599, Redfin says. That's 2.6% lower than a year ago. With wages nearly 4% higher than a year ago, that improves affordability further. Homebuyers have gained $34,000 in purchasing power since last year, when rates were sitting around 6.9%.

• April gold prices fell -$32.00 or 0.62% to settle at $5,194.20 an ounce.
• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $65.21/bbl, down 21 cents, or 0.32% and Brent Crude futures settle at $70.75/bbl, down 10 cents, 0.14%. Oil prices were higher most of the day before reversing this afternoon after newswire headlines that Oman notes US-Iran Nuclear talks in Geneva made positive progress and both sides showed openness to new and Creative solutions during discussions mediated by Oman’s foreign minister — statement in Geneva. Says discussions on a "technical level" will take place next week in Vienna.
• U.S. natural gas futures eased to a five-month low on a small weekly storage withdrawal and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. On their first day as the front-month, gas futures for April delivery on the NYMEX fell 4.1 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.827 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since September 22.

• In Food & Beverages: CELH posted a top and bottom line beat (revs $721.6M vs. est. $640.8M) and said it expects to complete Alani Nu integration as of end of Q1, expect Rockstar Energy to be integrated by end of Q2. SJM posted a beat on top and bottom line for Q3 while backed its year adj profit outlook and slightly revised its FY26 revenue growth view to 3.5%-4% from 3.5%-4.5% - also reached an agreement with activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management to add two executives to its Board; @Barchart tweets: "- Beer Shipments on track for worst year since the 1980s (TAP, BUD, SAM, STZ).
• In Restaurants: PZZA sees 2026 North America comp sales -2% to -4%, below consensus est. +0.49% after Q4 profit and revenue fell, hurt by a weak consumer backdrop and higher promotions across its North American business; revenue fell 6.1% to $498.2M and missed the $517.3M estimate. SHAK mixed Q4 results as EPS beat, but sales of $400.5M missed the $402M estimate. DNUT Q4 revenue beat analyst expectations despite a 2.9% decline y/y ($392.4M vs. est. $386.7M) on better earnings as adjusted EBITDA rose 21% y/y, driven by productivity initiatives; said expects systemwide sales to grow 2% to 4% in constant currency in 2026.
• Specialty Retail: WRBY Q4 revs $211.96M missed the $213.1M estimate and guides sees FY26 revenue $959M-$976M, vs. consensus $986.13M; sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $117M-$119M.

• In Casinos & Gaming: CZR shares jumped late day after a report in the Financial Times said the casino is weighing takeover interest (which also boosted shares of MGM, BYD and others) https://tinyurl.com/3vkkcck8 ; PENN shares bounced after reports Q4 adjusted profit of $0.07 compared with a (-$0.44) adjusted loss a year earlier and revs of $1.8B topped consensus of $1.76B as attributes earnings to strong performance across diversified retail portfolio. BYD announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell Sam's Town Hotel & Casino in Shreveport, Louisiana, to BALY
• In Lodging & Travel: VAC reported Q425 adjusted EPS of $1.86, $0.28 above the Street and Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $186M, above consensus at $178.2M, while raised 2026 guidance.

• In Energy: APA reported a fall in Q4 profit with $279M net Income vs. $354M Y/y; said the average price of oil was $61.03 per Barrel during the fourth quarter, compared with $72.42 per Barrel a year earlier; said it produced 459,767 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which fell from 488,308 boepd a year earlier; EOSE shares tumbled as FY revs were $114.2M but well below the consensus estimate $150.1M and issued sharply lower guidance as sees 2026 revenue $300M-$400M, below consensus $471.26M
• In Utilities: VST Q4 results topped expectations as an AI-driven surge in electricity demand from data centers fueled earnings and said expects 2026 adjusted core profit between $6.8B-$7.6B, up from its 2025 forecast range of $5.7B-45.9B; PEG said it now expects to spend $24B-$28B through 2030, including $22.5B-$25.5B of regulated investments (prior five-year plan included capital spending of $22.5 billion to $26 billion through 2029). @dailychartbook tweeted on X, “The national average of residential electricity prices rose 5.0% in 2025, reaching 17.3 cents/kWh. This was the fourth straight year of power prices escalating at a faster pace than the overall CPI"
• In Refiners: The Trump administration has settled on a plan that would require big oil refineries to make up for at least half of the biofuel blending volumes obligations waived in recent years under the Small Refinery Exemption program, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. The decision could be unwelcome news for larger oil refiners that have argued that additional blending obligations would raise their costs. But it could help the biofuel industry by boosting demand for blending credits. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refineries have to blend billions of gallons of ethanol and other biofuels into their fuel or buy credits, called RINs, from those that do. But small refineries can have those obligations waived if they demonstrate economic hardship.

• In Asset Managers: VCTR sent another letter to the Special Committee of JHG Board in proposal to acquire Janus Henderson. Under the terms of this proposal, JHG shareholders would receive total consideration of $57.04 per share, consisting of $30.00 in cash and a fixed exchange ratio of 0.350 shares of VCTR common stock.
• In FinTech: SEZL shares jump on beat/raise as Q4 adj EPS $1.21 tops consensus $0.96 and revs $129.87M vs. est. $127.58M; raises FY26 EPS view to $4.70 from $4.35, and vs. consensus $4.33 while guides FY26 revenue up 25%-30%; said Q4 GMV reached new quarter high $1.2B. FOUR shares the opposite, falling on mixed Q4 results and weaker guidance as sees FY26 EPS $5.50-$5.70, below consensus $6.45.
• In Insurance: RNR was downgraded to EW from OW at Morgan Stanley saying given the strong share price performance over the last 12 months (up ~32%), believes the valuation reflects much of the upside from here.
• In Payments: CHYM shares rallied on Q4 beat and better guide; Q4 EPS ($0.12) vs est ($0.15), adj EBITDA $57Mm vs est $45.66Mm on revs $596.358Mm vs est $577.68Mm; guides FY revs $2.63-2.67B vs est $2.61B; PYPL shares fell after Semafor reported they aren’t currently in talks to sell itself to Stripe or anyone else https://tinyurl.com/3hrw9knd

• GNL reported 4Q25 AFFO that beat cons. (+$0.02) and introduced its FY26 AFFO guidance of $0.80-$0.84, below cons. of $0.83. During 4Q25, GNL sold its McLaren Campus for $336M at a cap rate of 7.4%, which made up a bulk of its dispositions in 4Q25,
• INN initial ’26 Adj. EBITDA and Adj. FFO guidance were ~1% below consensus. Initial RevPAR growth guidance of +1.5% y/y was essentially in line with our assumption and appears to include some benefit from World Cup demand, easier y/y comps, and tailwinds from last year’s renovation disruption, and outperformance in 4Q25 may have led to improving visibility
• NSA reported a high-quality 4Q beat, and initial FY26 guidance came in ~0.5% above consensus at the midpoint. Fundamentals continued to improve as previously disclosed, with occupancy gains driving a 200 bps sequential improvement in SSREV growth, while SSNOI growth accelerated 500 bps vs. 3Q
• SMA reported in-line 4Q FFO, though initial FY26 guidance came in 3.4% below consensus at the midpoint. Notably, expectations have reset lower since 3Q
• VICI reported 4Q25 AFFO of $0.60, in line with consensus, and management issued initial FY26 guidance of $2.42-$2.45, ~0.6% below consensus at the midpoint

• QURE shares fell this morning on comments made by FDA Commissioner Marty Makary to CNBC's Becky Quick in a discussion about rare-disease drug approvals.
• SRPT announced FY25 revenues for Elevidys of $898.7M and PMO of 965.6M, in-line with preannouncement; provided FY26 product revenue guidance of $1.2-1.4B and noted they expect modest decline in PMO revenue in 2026; noted they expect Q1 to be flat to down 15% q/q.
• VIR 17.65M share Secondary priced at $8.50.

• Medical technology: INSP shares surged after Keybanc noted in today's MLN Connects Newsletter, CMS acknowledged recent confusion around HGNS reimbursement and announced the addition of six new HCPCS codes for the April 2026 Integrated Outpatient Code Editor (IOCE), effective Jan. 1, 2026. While still early, the firm is viewing this development as directionally positive, given it could expedite the pathway for gaining clarity into permanent and product-specific payment approaches.
• Healthcare Services: GDRX Q4 revs of $194.8M topped consensus but first time 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance fell substantially below the Street; initiated 2026 revenue guidance of $750-$780MM (midpoint: $765MM), with the midpoint of the range below consensus estimates of $814.4MM
• Life Sciences: Agilent's (A) Q1 results came in below consensus as it cited U.S. winter storm effects the last week of the January, but EPS guidance and the upper end of revenue were raised for FY26; highlights 6% Y/y growth in China biopharma strong, environment/food weak) and 7% organic growth for global Biopharma.
• Hospital operators: UHS 4Q results look somewhat mixed relative to Street expectations, highlighted by a slight EBITDA miss despite higher Medicaid SDPs. SS Acute volumes moderated sequentially, but we suspect this includes some drag from flu and cannibalization from new Hospitals; 2026 guidance is above Street

• In Building Products: BLD Q4 PS missed estimates with in-line res of $1.49B; Q4 sales growth of 13.2% was largely driven by acquisitions, including SPI and Progressive Roofing; expects 2026 sales between $5.925B-$6.2B vs. est. $6.16B; IBP Q4 revenue slightly beat analyst expectations and adjusted EPS for Q4 beat analyst expectations while authorized $500 mln stock repurchase program.
• In Shipping (SBLK, SHIP, GNK, DSX, GOGL): The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index fell for a second straight session, down four points, or 0.2%, at 2,117 as the Capesize index dropped 77 points, or 2.5%, to 3,051, the Panamax index gained 26 points, or 1.4%, to 1,916 and among smaller vessels, the Supramax index was up 44 points, or 3.5%, at 1,299.
• In Aerospace/Drones: JOBY mixed results as Q4 operating loss was $207M, worse than the -148M loss expected but posted Q4 revs of $30.8M, well above the $13.7M estimate; said still expects to fly its first passengers in 2026 and double its plane production capacity in 2027.
• Rare Earth stocks: group lower despite Reuters report that aerospace and semiconductor firms are facing shortages of yttrium and scandium. Those are two of the seven heavy rare earth minerals that China restricted the export of last April. Reuters reported that two aerospace suppliers temporarily paused production as suppliers ration yttrium. Meanwhile, semiconductor firms are running low on scandium. The report said that engine suppliers are struggling to meet demand due to China's export restrictions. GE Aerospace, RTX's Pratt & Whitney and Honeywell didn't comment for the article.

• The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) has surged nearly 20% year-to-date (YTD), while the S&P 500 Tech (XLK) is down -0.67%, the Mag 7 group of stocks (MAGS -4% YTD) and Software (IGV) down -21% YTRD. The SOX ended Wednesday at 8,467.43, and posted record highs, and is on track to rise for an 11th straight week. The SOX rose 11 weeks in a row in November 2017.
• Qnity (Q) results topped estimates; forecast full-year revenue in the range of $4.97B to $5.17B, the mid-point of which is marginally above analysts' estimates of $5.06B; On an adjusted basis, the company sees full-year profit per share in the range of $3.55 to $3.95, compared with analysts' estimates of $3.14.
• In Ad Tech: TTD results disappointed as 4Q revs beat smaller than typical, and 1Q rev guided to 10% y/y, below Street's 12%, with mgmt citing headwinds in the CPG and Auto verticals. While FY EBITDA margins guided to be flat y/y, Q1 margin guided to ~500 bps y/y decline.
• In Media: Shares of PSKY jumped on results and predicted strong growth at its streaming unit this year, while WBD reported poor results, EBITDA down 27%, revenue down 12%"

• Software: CRM shares bounced on earnings (after sliding initially last night) after reported Q4 adj EPS $3.81 vs $3.04b consensus, revs $11.2B in-line and announced a $50B new share buybacks; sees Q1 EPS $3.11-313 vs $3.00 consensus on revs $11.03-11.08B vs $10.99B consensus. Initially, Positive Agentforce and Data 360 momentum and disclosures (both existing and new) were overshadowed by weaker core performance. SNOW posted solid FQ4 with a 2.4% product revenue beat vs. guidance was modest, though bookings were strong up 50% Y/y and the FY27 organic guide ~$70M above consensus also strong/bookings were driven by seven 9-figure deals, including a >$400M deal with an existing financial services customer. The bounce off overnight lows in both names mirrored the move in WDAY the day prior with many hoping a bottom may be in place after AI fears sunk the IGV 20% this year so far – DDOG, HUBS, MDG, TEAM, NOW, MNDY among names rebounding.
• In Storage: NTNX shares jumped initially after Q2 results were better than expected, revs was ~2pts above consensus with OI margins 500 bps above consensus; also announced AMD strategic investment new join Ai initiative, which helped shares; PSTG shares tumbled as above consensus FY27 revenue guide and strong deal momentum was overshadowed by component cost driven Product GM% pressure.
• Quantum sector: IONQ shares jumped on results as Q4 revs of $61.89M handily topped the consensus of $40.4M while posts net income of $753.2M vs. est. loss of (-$122.6), prompting several Wall Street analysts to raise their tgt; QBTS reported Q4 revs $2.75M missing the $3.49M estimate but cut back on its losses in the quarter to -$42.3M from the -$144M loss y/y; posted Q4 bookings $13.4M, a 471% sequential increase.
• EDA Sector: SNPS posted strong Q1 revenue of $2.41B (high end of guidance) and adj-EPS of $3.77, which exceeded guidance and consensus estimates of $3.55 (midpoint) and $3.56, respectively amid seasonal strength of the ANSS integration, which contributed ~$886M in revenue while raised its full-year adj-EPS guidance to $14.38-$14.46 (previous midpoint $14.36) while reiterating revenue targets of $9.56B-$9.66B.
• Other Software: AI shares tumbled after much lower guidance as sees Q4 revenue $48M-$52M vs. est. $77.7M and year revs $246.7M-$250.7M vs. est. $298.7M after reporting Q3 revs 46% Y/y to $53.26M; also cuts 26% of global workforce; to incur about $10M-$12M pre-tax charges in Q4. ZM shares fell as FY'27 FCF miss + '27 EPS below the Street, top liner better, pricing tailwinds, long lean + big YTD o/p in Apps Software

Street Recommendations

Friday, February 27, 2026

• AAOI B. Riley upgraded Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $54, up from $15, post the Q4 report. The firm cites the continued strength in 400G, with 800G expected to drive incremental growth starting in Q2, for the upgrade. Applied Optoelectronics expects 400G demand to remain firm, especially with Amazon (AMZN), the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• WPP Barclays upgraded WPP to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of 300 GBp, up from 250 GBp. While the company's investor day "did not break new ground," everything said "was sensible," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says recent account wins demonstrate WPP "is not broken" despite its 2026 guidance being "weak." The company needs improving organic momentum before it is "out of the woods," adds Barclays.
• LNG Barclays raised the firm's price target on Cheniere Energy to $271 from $259 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Cheniere's "strong" Q4, accelerated progress on capital allocation targets, and operational and commercial execution position the company for continued success.
• CQP Barclays raised the firm's price target on Cheniere Energy Partners to $60 from $55 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm says Cheniere's "strong" Q4, accelerated progress on capital allocation targets, and operational and commercial execution position the company for continued success.
• DELL Barclays analyst Tim Long raised the firm's price target on Dell Technologies to $168 from $148 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the earnings report. The firm says the company's AI orders "were impressive" at $34B, almost triple
• FTAI Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski raised the firm's price target on FTAI Aviation to $350 from $260 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is a buyer of the stock on any weakness post the Q4 report. FTAI's long-term drivers of favorable momentum "remain firmly intact," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• SJM Bernstein analyst Alexia Howard raised the firm's price target on J.M. Smucker to $121 from $113 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm notes Smucker's announced plans to add two new board members in mid-April, under advice from Elliott Management. More fundamentally, the outlook for the coffee business remains solid for FY27, Bernstein adds.

• WMT BofA reinstated coverage of Walmart with a Buy rating and $150 price target. Walmart continues to gain share with upper income consumers through faster delivery offerings, while also serving lower income consumers with everyday low pricing, notes the analyst, who believes a continuation of consistent sales growth and an acceleration in profit growth should lead to further positive EPS revisions and allow the multiple to "grind higher."
• TGT BofA analyst Christopher Nardone reinstated coverage of Target with an Underperform rating and $103 price target. The firm thinks consensus expectations for consistent positive comp growth beyond fiscal Q1, which should be aided by higher tax refunds, may prove "aggressive" and thinks an EPS recovery will take time, the analyst tells investors.
• COST BofA reinstated coverage of Costco with a Buy rating and $1,185 price target. Given its strong appeal with higher-income consumers along with industry-leading pricing that attracts a more value-conscious shopper, Costco is "well positioned to remain a leader in this K-shaped economy," the analyst tells investors.

• SDRL BTIG raised the firm's price target on Seadrill to $50 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Energy Offshore Services, OSV. M&A in the Rig and OSV sector are helping tighten the market ahead of an eventual activity recovery, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PAR BTIG analyst Andrew Harte lowered the firm's price target on Par Technology to $45 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 conference call gave investors plenty to be excited about - 15% organic annual recurring revenue, ARR, growth in the quarter, a strong backlog of ARR that is expected to drive mid-teens organic growth in FY26, and extreme optimism about delivering AI products to its enterprise restaurant customers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The key negative point however was the expectation for ARR growth to be second-half-weighted as a result of managing out some legacy low margin customers during Q1, the firm adds.

• ARBE Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas lowered the firm's price target on Arbe Robotics to $1.25 from $1.75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported 4Q25 results with its latest update signaling a decisive near-to-medium term pivot away from Western Level 3 passenger vehicle programs toward adjacent markets including defense, robotaxis, autonomous trucking, and off- road applications.
• BKSY Canaccord analyst Austin Moeller lowered the firm's price target on BlackSky to $26 from $27 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said despite the company's Q4/FY25 results missing both our top and bottom-line estimates, BlackSky had a strong year, was profitable, and has momentum going into 2026 as the bulk of Gen-3 is brought online.
• HUT Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi raised the firm's price target on Hut 8 to $70 from $62 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said favorable lease terms on its recent River Bend co location deal are only accruing more value to the broader power infrastructure portfolio. At a macro level, demand for AI data center power continues to grow, based on increasingly favorable lease terms on recent deal announcements.
• PRGO Canaccord analyst Susan Anderson lowered the firm's price target on Perrigo to $17 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Management noted they ended 4Q25 and FY25 with share gains for both private label store brands and their key branded business, but saw softness in the infant nutrition business. It's been a challenging 2 years for the company primarily due to issues around the infant nutrition business. However, the rest of the business is performing well with distribution, contract, and share gains in a tough environment.
• SMR Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on NuScale Power to $25 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported 4Q25 results that materially missed consensus estimates and their lowered target reflects slower-than-anticipated NPM deployment growth and ATM-driven dilution. During the quarter, NuScale sold roughly 39.3M shares through the company's ATM.
• ZS Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Zscaler to $275 from $340 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Zscaler delivered a strong FQ2'26 with broad-based beats across top- and bottom-line metrics, highlighted by 26% year over year revenue growth to $815.8M. They continue to believe Zscaler is well positioned for sustained strong growth given its robust technology moat and expanding platform adoption.

• DELL Citi raised the firm's price target on Dell Technologies to $180 from $160 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported an "exceptional beat and raise" quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi says Dell's AI momentum is continuing. It upped estimates post the print.
• HEI Citi added an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on shares of Heico while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $400 price target. The firm views the 9% post-earnings share selloff as "unwarranted." It sees an attractive entry point at current share levels.
• DUOL Citi downgraded Duolingo to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $101, down from $270.

• METC Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Ramaco Resources to $14 from $16 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. Ramaco Resources reported mixed Q4 results, with revenue below expectations and adjusted EBITDA roughly in line, while 2026 production guidance met forecasts and sales volume guidance exceeded them, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Management is pivoting its rare earths strategy toward a proprietary flowsheet to produce high-purity gallium, alumina, and quartz for semiconductor applications, and with the timeline modestly pushed out, focus will center on execution milestones to de-risk the revised plan, the firm says.
• RUN Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Sunrun to $24 from $21 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Sunrun closed 2025 strongly, generating nearly $200M in Q4 cash and exceeding full-year guidance, with 2026 cash generation guided to $250M-$450M, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BCO Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Brink's (BCO) to $145 from $129 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Brink's delivered strong Q4 results, with revenue and EPS above estimates, and 2026 guidance exceeding Street expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. High-growth Digital Retail Solutions and ATM Managed Services accelerated to 22% organic growth in 4Q, while the announced $6.6B acquisition of NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) should expand capabilities, support mid-single-digit organic growth, and deliver $200M in annual run-rate synergies within three years, the firm says.
• FOUR Goldman Sachs downgraded Shift4 Payments to Neutral from Buy with a $56 price target. The firm's downgrade post Q4 results is based on two primary drivers: its "best estimate" of organic growth implying a low double digit run-rate exiting the year and mid/high single digits organic revenue growth in Q1, and free cash flow that is "significantly lower than expected," the analyst tells investors.
• FIGS Goldman Sachs upgraded Figs to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $14, up from $7.50, following the Q4 report. The improvement across the company's business is much stronger than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that management commentary suggests Figs' momentum has continued in Q1 and should support double-digit sales growth in 2026. Goldman admits to being wrong on the shares and sees a more balanced risk/reward at current levels.
• SMR Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee lowered the firm's price target on NuScale Power to $14 from $20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. NuScale Power closed 2025 with a strong $1.3B liquidity position, supported by $750M in ATM proceeds, and announced a new $1B ATM program for additional capital access, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• QSR Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort raised the firm's price target on Restaurant Brands to $80 from $79 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company hosted an investor day in Miami. At the event, the company reiterated its 2024-2028 8%-plus operating income growth, as expected, and better laid out its plans to streamline its financial model and unlock a free cash flow step-up over the next two to three years, the analyst tells investors.
• ARGX Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Argenx to $1,120 from $1,160 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. FY25 financial results were largely as expected following the company's pre-announcement, but the company's update regarding three potential registrational readouts in 2026 further strengthens the quality and durability of the growth story, the analyst tells investors.

• RUN Jefferies downgraded Sunrun to Hold from Buy with an unchanged price target of $22. Sunrun's Q4 commentary was "notably cautious," diverging from the more constructive industry takeaways at last week's Intersolar Conference, says the analyst, who notes that its Q4 call implied a more prolonged period of market contraction, reflected in lowered guidance and a renewed emphasis on balance-sheet protection. Recovery visibility remains limited and the firm sees upside skewing toward offensive strategies as the industry resets, the analyst added.

• DELL JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee raised the firm's price target on Dell Technologies to $165 from $155 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the Q4 report. The firm upped fiscal 2027 and 2028 estimates to reflect Dell's "stand-out execution." JPMorgan believes the confidence of management to raise earnings guidance materially in the face of higher memory costs that are higher "is going to drive investors to assume that the downside risks in relation to delivering to the outlook is lower than assumed earlier."
• ZS JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Zscaler to $250 from $267 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported "solid" fiscal Q2 results, but its organic annual recurring revenue was a bit lighter than some were looking for and guidance the "required a bit of explanation," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan cites recent peer multiple contraction for the target cut.
• CPNG JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Coupang to $27 from $33 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a Q4 miss with a mixed outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan recommends investors "gradually accumulate the stock" into the near-term catalysts of the share buyback and Coupang's active marketing strategy driven user return.

• AJG Mizuho upgraded Arthur J. Gallagher to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $260, down from $277. The firm adjusted ratings in the insurance property and casualty group following the recent sector selloff. There is "low disruption threat" to the insurance brokerage names who focus on middle-market and larger accounts from AI, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho believes disintermediation risk is "geared to mass market personal lines and the smaller end of SME."
• BRO Mizuho upgraded Brown & Brown to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $85, up from $84. The firm adjusted ratings in the insurance property and casualty group following the recent sector selloff. There is "low disruption threat" to the insurance brokerage names who focus on middle-market and larger accounts from AI, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho believes disintermediation risk is "geared to mass market personal lines and the smaller end of SME."
• WTW Mizuho analyst Yaron Kinar lowered the firm's price target on WTW to $358 from $392 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the insurance property and casualty group following the recent sector selloff. There is "low disruption threat" to the insurance brokerage names who focus on middle-market and larger accounts from AI, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho believes disintermediation risk is "geared to mass market personal lines and the smaller end of SME."
• DELL Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh raised the firm's price target on Dell Technologies to $180 from $175 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q4 report as strong. Dell is well positioned into fiscal 2027 with strong AI demand and a high-margin storage attach opportunity, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• VITL Morgan Stanley analyst Megan Alexander Clapp downgraded Vital Farms to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $24, down from $45. The firm says the company's lower implied Q1 revenue outlook along with "elevated" industry promotional intensity reduce Vital 's near-term visibility and raise questions around the achievability of its fiscal 2026 growth expectations. Morgan Stanley adds the stock's valuation "appears low."

• AAOI Northland downgraded Applied Optoelectronics to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $55, up from $45. The firm's raised target reflects an "ambitious" calendar year 2026 forecast for $1B in revenue, but with the shares now discounting earnings in the $3.00 range relative to current losses, the firm sees the risk reward as "balanced," the analyst tells investors.

• MNST Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Monster Beverage to $94 from $85 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm continues to believe Monster is well-positioned for strong, sustainable top-line growth momentum, particularly driven by its zero sugar offerings, where it continues to focus its innovation efforts.
• DELL Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Dell Technologies to $167 from $172 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Dell had a very strong quarter of orders and revenue that translated into operational upside and a stronger guide when combined with memory costs being able to be passed through with customers, the firm notes. Strength is primarily coming from AI-servers that is helping to grow EPS above expectations, sending shares higher after-hours.

• ESS Raymond James analyst Buck Horne downgraded Essex Property Trust to Market Perform from Outperform. Residential REITs are being downgraded as rental demand deterioration across multifamily and single-family rental segments accelerates into early 2026, raising concerns that consensus and recently issued 2026 guidance may prove too optimistic, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite management assumptions of a seasonally normal leasing recovery and improved 2H26 comps, weak leasing trends, elevated new supply and concessions, macro headwinds such as AI-driven job displacement and stricter immigration enforcement, and rising regulatory risks suggest downside risk to earnings expectations, the firm says.
• INVH Raymond James downgraded Invitation Homes to Market Perform from Outperform. Residential REITs are being downgraded as rental demand deterioration across multifamily and single-family rental segments accelerates into early 2026, raising concerns that consensus and recently issued 2026 guidance may prove too optimistic, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite management assumptions of a seasonally normal leasing recovery and improved 2H26 comps, weak leasing trends, elevated new supply and concessions, macro headwinds such as AI-driven job displacement and stricter immigration enforcement, and rising regulatory risks suggest downside risk to earnings expectations, the firm says.
• NXRT Raymond James downgraded NexPoint Residential to Underperform from Market Perform. Residential REITs are being downgraded as rental demand deterioration across multifamily and single-family rental segments accelerates into early 2026, raising concerns that consensus and recently issued 2026 guidance may prove too optimistic, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite management assumptions of a seasonally normal leasing recovery and improved 2H26 comps, weak leasing trends, elevated new supply and concessions, macro headwinds such as AI-driven job displacement and stricter immigration enforcement, and rising regulatory risks suggest downside risk to earnings expectations, the firm says.

• WWW UBS raised the firm's price target on Wolverine World Wide to $29 from $26 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Wolverine World Wide's investments in Active brands should drive sustainable sales and EPS growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes the market is underappreciating the durability of Wolverine's growth.
• YETI UBS lowered the firm's price target on Yeti to $47 from $51 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Yeti's Q4 results beat on EPS, driven by stronger-than-expected top-line growth and better margins, while FY26 guidance exceeded consensus on revenue midpoint but came in below on margins and EPS, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Although valuation remains attractive, near-term upside depends on investor confidence in accelerating top-line growth amid broader category pressures, leaving risk/reward balanced until longer-term growth visibility improves, the firm says.

• SUI Wells Fargo upgraded Sun Communities to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $150, up from $133. The firm cites Sun Communities' catalysts for the upgrade, namely 2026 and 2027 growth, guidance upside from $550M of investment firepower, new CEO focused on better operations, and estimates above guide midpoint.
• IART Wells Fargo analyst Vik Chopra lowered the firm's price target on Integra LifeSciences to $12 from $13 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says that revenue building sequentially throughout 2026 implies a back-half-loaded guide. Braintree operational by June is the key second half of the year catalyst, Wells adds.
• FWONK Wells Fargo upgraded Liberty Formula One to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $95, up from $93. The firm says its concerns are now well understood and "behind the stock." Wells also sees opportunities for Liberty Formula One, including potential acquisitions.
• SRPT Wells Fargo analyst Yanan Zhu lowered the firm's price target on Sarepta to $38 from $45 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Given 2026 guidance, it seems the GTx launch reset post safety events could take longer than the firm expected. Therefore, Wells adjusts its ELEVIDYS numbers arriving at a new price target. That said, the firm expects the siRNA readout to be positive and thus the setup is still favorable.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for February

• Earnings After the Close: ACHR AIV ASAN ASTS BBAI CORZ CRDO DAVE GAIA GRRR HLIO HROW IHRT INGM JRVR LIF LMB MDB OUST PLUG QUBT RGR RIOT SGRY STNE SUPV TDUP TREE TUYA VTS

• Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ACEL ARCT BGS BOX BRCB CRCT CRWD CYRX EOLS FTEK GTLB HRZN MEC NPCE ORN RIGL ROST RYAM SGC SSTI STAA SWIM WBTN

• Keybanc Emerging Technology Summit in San Francisco, 3/3
• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI, for February
• China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for February

• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll data for February
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb-final
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Feb-final
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEO ALTO AQST ARDT ATNI AVGO BULL CBRL CCRN CDLX CHPT EHAB GO HDSN ICCC IPI LUNG MG MX NNBR OKTA OOMA REI REPX RGTI SES SGHT STEM STUB TPVG VEEV

• Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
• RBC Capital Geothermal Investor Conference, 3/4 in New York
• Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
• TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Nonfarm productivity for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q4, preliminary
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AEYE AKA ASLE COO COOK COST ERO EVC GAP GDYN GEVO GPRO GWRE III IOT MEOH MRVL NX OPRX PBR PRTS SOBO

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for February
• 8:30 AM Et                    Average Hourly Earnings M/M and Y/Y for February
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for January

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