Early Look

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Following another nice day of gains, and the best quarter for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since 2000, futures took a breather overnight and were red across the board.  Gold and oil, similarly slipped overnight.  NKE was the most impactful earnings name last night and it’s looking lower by about 3.5%.  Trading activity is likely to begin to ease as we approach the holiday long weekend, but tomorrow’s payrolls data will still looms for the Fed watchers.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 412.64 to 70,474.96, the Shanghai Index added 18.05 to 4,112.45 and the Hang Seng Index dipped 145.66 to 22,881.02.  In Europe, the German DAX is up 49.32 at 25,046.95 while the FTSE 100 is off 38.92 to 10,457.74.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 135.07 points, or 0.26%, to 52,317.81
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 393.57 points, or 1.52%, to 26,213.72
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 16.79 points, or 0.56% to 3,027.20

• 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for June
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for May
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BSET FC GBX

• In airlines, ULCC and BCS announced they would continue long-term partnership to deliver more value for Frontier Airlines World Mastercard ® cardmembers.
• In consumer brands, STZ announced a double beat in EPS and sales, sending shares higher in AHs trading, NKE shares fell modestly after reporting Q4 earnings: Adj. EPS $0.20 beats est $0.13 and Sales $10.972B beat est $10.863B; on the conf. call Nike’s CEO said the company is seeing added pressure on traffic, pressure tariffs, and discretionary spending across geographies and working to right-size distribution network to match demand, lower supply chain costs. PZZA shares fell in AHs trading after announcing the appointment of Chris Collins as interim CFO effective immediately and Ravi Thanawala leaving as CFO.
• In online commerce, Australia’s ACCC has sued AMZN over alleged unfair contract terms for Prime users per an ACCC PR overnight.
• In autos, China’s LI announced that it delivered 30,895 vehicles in June. As of June 30, Li Auto's cumulative deliveries reached 1,733,687. China’s NIO announced they had delivered 40,597 vehicles in June, representing an increase of 62.9% YoY. China’s XPEV announced the delivery of 40,126 vehicles in June, bringing total second-quarter deliveries to 103,295 units.

• In energy, shares of BE gained in AHs trading following announcement that they and Brookfield expand their strategic partnership as Brookfield increases its framework to finance power projects for ai infrastructure from previously announced $5B to $25B. TALO announced they would buy Gulf of Mexico deepwater assets from SHEL for $850M net. RIG shares rose in AHs trading after signing over $1B agreement with EQNR for three of its harsh environment semisubmersible rigs on Norwegian Shelf. SDRL issues $700M of 6.75% Senior notes due 2034 per an SEC filing. The U.S. DOE has approved final safety analysis for OKLO's Groves Isotope test reactor; targets first criticality in July 2026.
• In industrials, WS enters a $550M asset-based revolving credit facility with Wells Fargo, expandable to $650M. FMC shares are higher in pre-market trading following announcing that they and Tessenderlo Group announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Tessenderlo Group will make a strategic minority equity investment in FMC Corporation of approximately $400M at a price of $13.30 per share. Overnight, KE announced the acquisition of private Helvoet Polymer Technologies for €90M ($103M), expanding global medical CDMO platform across Europe and India. ES announced the completion of its sale of Aquarion Water Company to Aquarion Water Authority, a quasi-public Corporation and political subdivision of the State of Connecticut, for $2.4B in cash. MSM reported Q3 earnings: Adj. EPS $1.43 beat $1.26 estimate and Sales $1.047B beat $1.031B estimate.
• In logistics overnight, the FT reported that French container shipping group CMA CGM is nearing a deal to buy FDX’s third-party logistics business for $1.4bn in cash, further strengthening its foothold in the US supply chain.
• In mining last night, AA announced the strategic acquisition of South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for $4.1B.

• In real estate, nan-cap LGPS shares rose sharply after announcing payment of a special dividend of $0.022 per share. ABR announced they would offer $300M convertible Senior notes due 2029 in private placement. INN completes $650M credit facility refinancing. Realty Income (O) forms programmatic joint venture with Cloud Capital and a global institutional investor to invest in hyperscale data centers; initial seed assets valued at over $6B. CSGP has announced an 30% investment in Wikicasa, an agent-backed real estate marketplace in Italy.

• In data storage late yesterday, activist hedge fund Jana Partners built new position in tech company Everpure Inc, (P), sources note, lifting the shares. SCSC announced the expansion of HPE networking partnerships to include HPE Juniper Networking.
• In software, shares of PRGS moved lower in AHs trading despite a double beast and generally raised guidance following Q2 earnings: Adj. EPS $1.62 beat est $1.49, Sales $253.465M beat est $242.741M. DDOG announced the acquisition of Adaptive ML to accelerate its investment in AI research and development. In an SEC filing SNOW announced that stockholders do not approve executive officer compensation on non-binding advisory basis. Israel’s NICE announced that they had deepened their AMZN’s AWS partnership, bringing ai agents and automation capabilities to European sovereign cloud for financial services, healthcare and public sector.
• In chips, LSSC filed to enter a $200M revolver, $950M delayed draw term loan agreement. In an SEC filing NVDA announced stockholders approve advisory vote on executive compensation.
• In AI last night, Bloomberg reported that the US government removed foreign access restrictions on Anthropic PBC's Fable 5 artificial intelligence model, clearing it for wider distribution.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, June 26, 2026

U.S. stocks are mixed again as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for weekly declines as chipmakers came under renewed selling pressure after a stellar run this quarter, with investors questioning high valuations and the repercussions of massive AI spending by companies. This morning the SPY traded below its 50dma support while the QQQs near its 50dma around $702.75 but have since bounced notably off lows. AI supply chain/semiconductors slipped after the New York Times reported that OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its IPO until 2027 from a prior Q3/Q4 2026 target amid continued heavy spending, rising competition, and a less supportive equity backdrop, raising fresh questions around the pace of AI infrastructure investment. Separately, a report in The Information said OpenAI will reportedly roll out GPT-5.6 in phases, with select customers receiving early access, following requests from Washington amid growing scrutiny of advanced AI model releases. Other concerns remain inflation and rate hikes after data Thursday showed U.S. inflation (PCE) rose above 4% in May for the first time in three years, boosted by higher energy prices, keeping the possibility of a Fed rate hike alive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average comes into the day at all-time highs 9extending gains early), boosted lately by shares of CAT, financials and healthcare while Smallcaps have held up very well. Overnight, President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz was open and that the US would buy wheat, corn and soybeans with Iranian funds, but the bounce was short-lived as Asian markets tumbled (Nikkie, Shanghai, Kospi) as tech sentiment soured. Bitcoin slips back below $60,000 this week as U.S. stock futures fall driven by losses in tech stocks (Bitcoin reached a 21-month low of $58,075 Thursday).

A key item today, The FTSE Russell indices will undergo their semi-annual rebalancing after markets close today. The rebalancing will impact $6 trillion of active and passive assets under management benchmarked to the major Russell indices, according to strategists at JPMorgan Asset Management. The event will result in lots of companies moving between indexes. Most notably, SpaceX is among those set to be added to the Russell 1000. Updated indices will go live Monday. Overall, 43 companies are expected to graduate from the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks to the Russell 1000 large-cap index.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final June 4.6% vs prelim 4.6% and final May 4.8% while 5-year inflation outlook final June 3.3% vs prelim 3.4% and final May 3.9%.

• In Chemicals: German chemicals group Evonik Industries (EVKIY) raised its full-year profit outlook after posting Q2 results that beat expectation; now sees 2026 adj EBITDA between EU2.0B ($2.28B) and EU2.2B, up from a previously forecast range of EU1.7B-2B; said Q2 adj EBITDA is expected to come in at between EU600M-650M, above views of about EU567M, driven by higher volumes and prices as well as ongoing cost cuts. Shares of US related comps include DD, EMN, ASH, HUN, CBT. FUL was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan as the firm thinks lower oil prices and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are likely to minimize or lower H.B. Fuller's raw material cost pressure in 2027.
• In Aerospace: SPCX told investors that it plans to launch a new Starlink mobile service for U.S. consumers, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. SpaceX president and COO Gwynne Shotwell told investors during an IPO roadshow that the group was considering launching a Starlink retail product. The company could build its own terrestrial US mobile network. The move would require Starlink to sell mobile contracts to individual customers. RKLB shares bounced after NASA selected Rocket Lab to provide the launch service for both the agency’s PolSIR (Polarized Submillimeter Ice-cloud Radiometer) and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-2 (TSIS-2) missions.

• APOG +14%; on results as Q1 EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.45 and revs fell -1% y/y to $342.68M but topped ests $333.8M; reaffirmed fiscal 2027expectce and expects Kalwall acquisition to close in July; said overall net sales declined due to lower volume, with higher material and freight costs impacting margins.
• CROX +5%; was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and raised to $150 saying its North America DTC inflected to MSD in Q126 (best since Q224), and compares ease remainder of the year, Heydude is seeing green shoots in DTC, EPS estimates are upwardly biased.
• FCEL +20%; was upgraded to Buy at Jefferies with $24 tgt after Fit Energy data center deal saying the setup has materially shifted from "show me" to executing on visible backlog, while a deep valuation discount to BE creates an asymmetric entry point.
• INFQ +7%; initiated at Outperform and $20 tgt at Wedbush saying it is the only company commercializing the entire neutral-atom stack across Computing, sensing, and software from one shared technology core, and the only publicly traded neutral-atom pure-play.
• RKLB +4%; shares bounced after NASA selected Rocket Lab to provide the launch service for both the agency’s PolSIR (Polarized Submillimeter Ice-cloud Radiometer) and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-2 (TSIS-2) missions.

• CAPR -13%; after the U.S. FDA scheduled an advisory committee meeting to discuss the company’s marketing application for Deramiocel, a treatment targeting Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
• MSTR -2%; on track for its lowest level in more than two years. The stock slumped about 8% Thursday and comes into Friday with a seven-day losing streak, its worst seven-day losing streak since November 2022.
• OMER -18%; shares fell after saying the European Medicines Agency's key panel issued a negative opinion on its application for its drug narsoplimab to treat transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA); OMER to request a re-examination of the opinion and review by an independent expert group.
• ON -19%; agreed to be acquire SYNA in an all-stock transaction, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $7B; SYNA shareholders to receive 1.35 shares of onsemi for each Synaptics share held.
• SFTBY -8%; shares of Softbank tumbled following NYT report that OpenAI is considering pushing its highly anticipated public debut into next year; potential postponement threatens to delay a massive liquidity event for the company's major financial backers.

Closing Recap

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

US equities inched higher overnight ahead of a new round of economic data this morning.  Following strong Redbook and CaseShiller data, futures faded to red ahead of what would prove to be a xxxxx day.  Sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index remained subdued at 27/100 (Fear), unchanged versus last week but well below last month’s 59 (Greed) and last year’s 69 (Greed).  By mid-morning, indices were back to gains across the board with breadth favoring advancers by 6:5 as small caps underperformed with IWM (+0.21%) versus SPY (+0.50%) and QQQ (+1.20%).  SPY breadth favored decliners by 3:2 as an outlier, while QQQ breadth favored advancers by 8:7.  In sectors, Technology (+1.87%), Industrials (+0.99%) and Materials (+0.41%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Communications (-1.29%), Health Care (-1.37%) and Real Estate (-1.59%) paced the underperformers with 4 sectors gaining versus 7 declining.

Stocks extended gains into the afternoon and held strength through the final hour of trading.  We hear from NKE tonight on the earnings calendar and get ADP Employment data tomorrow.  Soon the focus will shift primarily back to earnings, at least until we hear from the Fed again, and Wells was out early with an expectation for 22% Q2 year/year earnings growth.  Spending on AI infrastructure, of course, is expected to be the leading driver.  Wells anticipates AI-related groups will represent over half the over profit growth in the S&P. 

• Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales +10.5% versus +10.0% prior
• Monthly Home Prices M/M for April -0.1% versus +0.2% forecast and +0.1% prior
• CaseShiller 20-City index for April +1.1% versus +0.9% forecast and +0.8% prior
• Chicago PMI for June 56.7 versus forecast 55.1 and
• JOLTs Job openings for May 7.594Mm vs forecast 7.2955Mm an prior revised 7.585Mm from 7.618Mm
• Consumer Confidence for June 91.2 versus forecast 94.4 and prior revised 90.6 from 93.1
• Dallas Fed Services for June 9.8 versus 5.0 prior

• Gold futures gained overnight but failed to hold on during the regular session as rates and the Dollar rose.  Incrementally, UBS was out this morning noting investors should proceed with caution as historical macro drivers (US real rates and the Dollar) re-emerge after a period of decoupling.  That said, fwiw, gold prices also are nearing a death cross technically and history indicates 57% of the time prices have been higher one month post-cross while also higher six months later 57% of the time and one year later 46%.  As for today, August gold futures finished off the lows but still settled -$0.40/oz, or -0.01%, at $4,038.50.

• NSRGY head of nutrition notes it will be a while before infant Formula sales return to levels seen before widespread recall in early 2026.
• FDA allows PM’s ZYN to sell pouches on health benefits per Axios.
• The Trump administration is prepping a financial lifeline for smaller meatpackers struggling with dwindling cattle supplies, which have sent beef prices surging (TSN, HRL, JBS)
• U.S. Supreme Court declines to hear cases concerning the legality of firearms restrictions on people ages 18 to 20 (RGR, SWBI).

• VWAGY considering selling and manufacturing Chinese models in Europe - handelsblatt

• SLB awarded seven-year contract under Kuwait oil company's Ahmadi Innovation Valley Initiative; opening planned for 2028
• Brazil's PBR approves amendments to Natural gas supply contracts to interested customers to curb price volatility - statement. Shares of BE rose on unconfirmed reports of a new data center deal.

• Dozens of financial firms including; V, Stripe, MC, BLK & COIN to launch new stablecoin called ousd - will share revenue among Partners: bbg

• STOK announced completion of enrollment of 162 patients into the Phase 3 emperor study of zorevunersen, an investigational Medicine for the treatment of Dravet Syndrome. MNPR shares moved higher after receiving FDA rare pediatric disease designation for ALXN1840 for the treatment of Wilson Disease. COGT submitted an FDA NDA for bezuclastinib in advanced systemic mastocytosis, based on its APEX pivotal trial.
• EU opens antitrust investigation into ALGN conduct regarding invisalign clear aligners and intra-oral scanners
• MODD  Modular Medical Delivers Insulin to First Patients on Pivot Tubeless Insulin Patch Pump; First Patients Began Device Training and Insulin Delivery Today, Marking Transition to a Commercial Company
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• In shipping and mailing, PBI initiated the second phase of strategic review process; board to evaluate value creation plan against strategic alternatives including sale.
• SMERY wins order to supply turbines, service for 2.6-GW Oman Misfah and Duqm IPPs. GEV completes modernization of high-voltage R&D lab in Italy.
• SBGSY to buy private co. Cognition in $3.1B all-cash deal.
• DSX announces extension of financing to support acquisition of all outstanding shares of GNK.

• EADSY upgraded to 'a+' on solid financial flexibility, outlook stable; debt ratings raised to 'a+'.
• SPEEA aims to negotiate 2 collective bargaining agreements with BA, one for some 13,000 engineers, another for some 4,000 technical workers to begin formal contract talks with Boeing on July 1.

• CUX has officially postponed its U.S. IPO on June 30, 2026, citing recent volatility across the global copper equity sector.
  
  

• AMZN’s AWS commits $1B toward new unit for embedded Ai engineers per Channel News Asia. NFLX could turn NBC (CMCSA) into its biggest bet yet — and this time, the math actually works per Fortune.

• U.S. Supreme Court agrees to hear AAPL appeal of contempt order in Epic Games lawsuit over app store fees.
• META loses bid to toss lawsuit alleging Facebook and Instagram addict children per NYPost.

• In the AI sector, shares of microcap VWAV climbed sharply after announcing the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire controlling interest in Meteor Aerospace, valued at $40M pre-money equity.
• SMCI’s Problems Are a ‘Slam Dunk’ for DELL Stock writes Barron's.
• MSFT on track for its worst single-month performance (-17%) since December 2000.

• NVDA stock gains as boutique SemiAnalysis sees H2 data center revenue 20% above consensus.

Street Recommendations

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

BARCLAYS

• IRM Barclays analyst Brendan Lynch raised the firm's price target on Iron Mountain to $143 from $127 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm upped targets in the communications infrastructure real estate investment trust group citing higher growth expectations than previously modeled. The companies are benefiting from ongoing hyperscale demand and accelerating enterprise AI demand, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PNW Barclays analyst Nicholas Campanella raised the firm's price target on Pinnacle West to $108 from $102 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares as part of a Q2 preview. The firm sees an inline quarter for Pinnacle.

BOFA

• NKE BofA analyst Lorraine Hutchinson lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $47 from $55 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Q4 was in line with expectations and the "biggest change" from last night was reduced sales guidance, but unchanged EPS guidance, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note. Concerns about declining sales in China and sportwear are offset by inflecting margins, says the analyst, who maintains the firm's FY27 EPS of $1.60, but lowered the firm's target to reflect slower progress on the sales turnaround.
• HIMS BofA analyst Allen Lutz raised the firm's price target on Hims & Hers to $36 from $25 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Bloomberg Second Measure card data has improved in recent months, suggesting "solid early traction" for Hims' branded GLP-1 franchise, the analyst tells investors. However, while Hims' oral Wegovy launch is trending well, it is too early to tell if Hims can capture and retain enough GLP-1 subscribers to achieve the significant EBITDA ramp embedded in second half guidance, the analyst added.
• STX BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan raised the firm's price target on Seagate to $1,150 from $1,000 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The hard disk drive industry is now more disciplined about adding exabyte capacity without adding unit capacity and the firm believes the majority of Seagate's nearline HDD volume is under build-to-order contracts, says the analyst, who expects Seagate to increase pricing as these comes up for renewal.
• WDC BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan raised the firm's price target on Western Digital to $732 from $610 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The hard disk drive industry continues to see demand outpace supply and pricing remains strong, notes the analyst, who believes exabyte shipments can outpace management's long-term guidance of 25% year-over-year.
• AAL BofA analyst Andrew Didora raised the firm's price target on American Airlines to $19 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Driven by strong demand trends and significantly lower fuel prices, the firm sees "a constructive setup" into Q2 earnings for the airlines, the analyst tells investors in a group preview.
• JBLU BofA analyst Andrew Didora raised the firm's price target on JetBlue to $4 from $3.50 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Driven by strong demand trends and significantly lower fuel prices, the firm sees "a constructive setup" into Q2 earnings for the airlines, the analyst tells investors in a group preview.

BTIG

• KZIA BTIG analyst Kambiz Yazdi initiated coverage of Kazia Therapeutics with a Buy rating and $34 price target. Kazia is advancing paxalisib, which the firm calls "not simply a broader PI3K inhibitor," but "a biology modulator with a differentiated mechanism." The firm projects approximately $500M in peak paxalisib sales, predominantly in triple-negative breast cancer.
• MNPR BTIG analyst Jeet Mukherjee raised the firm's price target on Monopar Therapeutics to $117 from $104 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Monopar has an improved regulatory outlook ahead of its planned NDA submission for ALXN1840 in Wilson's disease, supported by recent FDA signals and draft guidance suggesting greater willingness to accept a single high-quality Phase 3 trial with confirmatory evidence for rare disease approvals, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

CANACCORD

• MSTR Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi lowered the firm's price target on Strategy to $130 from $163 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm noted things have been materially tougher against the backdrop of steadydeclines in BTC, deployment of cash reserves to buy back $1.5B of its 2029 convert, as well as discussions about servicing the preferred dividends. But with some key learnings along the way and some definitive actions announced yesterday, they believe thecompany's model is in a better position to weather the current BTC environment if it lasts over the medium term.

CHARDAN

• EYPT Chardan analyst Andreas Argyrides raised the firm's price target on EyePoint to $65 from $29 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as coverage was transferred. The firm, which believes that EyePoint is "a de-risked, single-asset, catalyst-rich story" heading into pivotal readouts from Phase 3 studies of DURAVYU in wet AMD expected in August and October this year, says the two largest retinal markets - wet AMD and DME - together represent about $13B in U.S. sales next year.

CITI

• DCO Citi analyst John Godyn raised the firm's price target on Ducommun to $216 from $167 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates and price targets in the aerospace and defense group ahead of the Q2 reports. Citi expects aerospace companies to post "big beats" with moderate guidance raises. The analyst sees less potential for big beats in defense names relative to aerospace but more opportunity for share upside given the compressed multiples in the group.
• HWM Citi analyst John Godyn raised the firm's price target on Howmet Aerospace to $311 from $303 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates and price targets in the aerospace and defense group ahead of the Q2 reports. Citi expects aerospace companies to post "big beats" with moderate guidance raises. The analyst sees less potential for big beats in defense names relative to aerospace but more opportunity for share upside given the compressed multiples in the group.
• LMT Citi analyst John Godyn raised the firm's price target on Lockheed Martin to $582 from $571 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates and price targets in the aerospace and defense group ahead of the Q2 reports. Citi expects aerospace companies to post "big beats" with moderate guidance raises. The analyst sees less potential for big beats in defense names relative to aerospace but more opportunity for share upside given the compressed multiples in the group.
• PSN Citi analyst John Godyn raised the firm's price target on Parsons to $66 from $65 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates and price targets in the aerospace and defense group ahead of the Q2 reports. Citi expects aerospace companies to post "big beats" with moderate guidance raises. The analyst sees less potential for big beats in defense names relative to aerospace but more opportunity for share upside given the compressed multiples in the group.
• HON Citi analyst Andrew Kaplowitz lowered the firm's price target on Honeywell to $260 from $269.40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the spinoff. Honeywell's "pure play" automation portfolio looks well positioned for more consistent and predictable sales growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

DANSKE BANK

• NOK Danske Bank analyst Sami Sarkamies upgraded Nokia to Buy from Hold with a EUR 14 price target.

EVERCORE ISI

• BE Evercore ISI analyst Nicholas Amicucci raised the firm's price target on Bloom Energy to $350 from $295 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company and Brookfield announced that the latter is expanding its framework to finance power projects for AI infrastructure fivefold from the previously announced $5B framework to $25B. Bloom's ability to provide reliable, dispatchable power to an inherently volatile demand profile is a differentiated offering relative to competitors, says the firm, which believes this enhanced partnership is supportive of a "bullish view on Bloom shares."

FREEDOM CAPITAL

• FWRG Freedom Capital analyst Lynne Collier initiated coverage of First Watch Restaurant with a Buy rating and $17 price target, representing 31% upside. The firm sees an attractive valuation following the recent pullback in the shares. First Watch is the emerging leader in the better breakfast category with "excellent returns and a long-runway of growth ahead," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• KRUS Freedom Capital analyst Lynne Collier initiated coverage of Kura Sushi with a Hold rating and $68 price target, implying 14% upside from current levels. The firm wants to see more predictability around Kura's comps and sees the stock's risk/reward as fairly balanced.

GOLDMAN SACHS

• LAC Goldman Sachs analyst Duffy Fischer initiated coverage of Lithium Americas with a Neutral rating and $4.50 price target. The firm believes the company's Thacker Pass mine will be the first significant lithium capacity in the U.S. However, Goldman continues to see risk on construction and operating efficiency for Lithium Americas.

GUGGENHEIM

• NKE Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $60 from $74 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. A Q4 beat was driven by better-than-expected margins and sales across most geographies, though Nike noted that retail sales began to see a broad-based slowdown in mid-April, leading management to temper the near-term sales outlook, the analyst tells investors. Nike is "clearly not yet out of the woods," but the firm believes that quality of sales inflects before actual sales and argues that earlier-than-expected gross margin expansion "may prove a critical leading indicator of business stabilization."

JEFFERIES

• MUSA Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe upgraded Murphy USA to Buy from Hold with a price target of $625, up from $550. The firm says improving fuel margins and stronger execution drive a "materially higher" EBITDA outlook for Murphy. Jefferies sees upside to near-term estimates from the company's fuel margins, and says its 50 new stores per year "underpin durable growth for the coming years." The higher price target reflects Murphy's earnings visibility and confidence in its multi-year algorithm, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

JPMORGAN

• FHB JPMorgan analyst Anthony Elian raised the firm's price target on First Hawaiian to $31 from $27 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted models in the small- and mid-cap bank group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Fundamental trends for the quarter will show loan and deposit growth each in the mid-single digit annualized range and credit trends remaining stable, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PNFP JPMorgan analyst Anthony Elian raised the firm's price target on Pinnacle Financial to $125 from $115 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted models in the small- and mid-cap bank group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Fundamental trends for the quarter will show loan and deposit growth each in the mid-single digit annualized range and credit trends remaining stable, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• VLY JPMorgan analyst Anthony Elian raised the firm's price target on Valley National to $17.50 from $15 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted models in the small- and mid-cap bank group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Fundamental trends for the quarter will show loan and deposit growth each in the mid-single digit annualized range and credit trends remaining stable, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• WMB JPMorgan analyst Jeremy Tonet raised the firm's price target on Williams to $89 from $88 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the Q2 report. The firm believes the upper half of the company's guidance is on track.

LOOP CAPITAL

• PRG Loop Capital analyst Casey Coates downgraded Prog Holdings to Hold from Buy with an unchanged price target of $48.

MIZUHO

• PPG Mizuho analyst John Roberts raised the firm's price target on PPG to $135 from $125 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm lowered price targets for most of its basic chemical coverage and upped targets for four technology materials stocks as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Oil futures have declined recently, reducing the natural gas advantage expectations for many basic chemicals, and the continued downstream investment in advanced compute should lengthen the duration of the tech materials' strength, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• DOW Mizuho analyst John Roberts lowered the firm's price target on Dow Inc. to $35 from $43 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm lowered price targets for most of its basic chemical coverage and upped targets for four technology materials stocks as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Oil futures have declined recently, reducing the natural gas advantage expectations for many basic chemicals, and the continued downstream investment in advanced compute should lengthen the duration of the tech materials' strength, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HUN Mizuho analyst John Roberts lowered the firm's price target on Huntsman to $13 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm lowered price targets for most of its basic chemical coverage and upped targets for four technology materials stocks as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Oil futures have declined recently, reducing the natural gas advantage expectations for many basic chemicals, and the continued downstream investment in advanced compute should lengthen the duration of the tech materials' strength, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ENTG Mizuho analyst John Roberts raised the firm's price target on Entegris to $200 from $180 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm lowered price targets for most of its basic chemical coverage and upped targets for four technology materials stocks as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Oil futures have declined recently, reducing the natural gas advantage expectations for many basic chemicals, and the continued downstream investment in advanced compute should lengthen the duration of the tech materials' strength, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GLW Mizuho analyst John Roberts raised the firm's price target on Corning to $270 from $220 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm lowered price targets for most of its basic chemical coverage and upped targets for four technology materials stocks as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Oil futures have declined recently, reducing the natural gas advantage expectations for many basic chemicals, and the continued downstream investment in advanced compute should lengthen the duration of the tech materials' strength, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SYNA Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh raised the firm's price target on Synaptics to $170 from $128 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm cites the On takeover deal parameters for the target increase.

RAYMOND JAMES

• ABCB Raymond James analyst David Feaster downgraded Ameris Bancorp to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade following the stock's outperformance. The bank's favorable attributes are as represented in the stock's "well-deserved premium multiple," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CFR Raymond James analyst Michael Rose downgraded Cullen/Frost to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade with the shares up 22% year-to-date. Raymond James continues to view Cullen/Frost's fundamental story positively, but sees the stock's risk/reward as balanced and its valuation as fair.
• CAC Raymond James analyst Steve Moss raised the firm's price target on Camden National to $58 from $56 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Q2 results should reflect ongoing loan growth momentum, still benign credit trends, ongoing share repurchase activity, improved fee income, continued expense control, and positive operating leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PGC Raymond James analyst Steve Moss raised the firm's price target on Peapack-Gladstone to $55 from $49 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. Q2 results should reflect ongoing loan growth momentum, still benign credit trends, ongoing share repurchase activity, improved fee income, continued expense control, and positive operating leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• UBSI Raymond James analyst Steve Moss raised the firm's price target on United Bankshares to $50 from $49 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Q2 results should reflect ongoing loan growth momentum, still benign credit trends, ongoing share repurchase activity, improved fee income, continued expense control, and positive operating leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

RBC CAPITAL

• MEOH RBC Capital analyst Nelson Ng lowered the firm's price target on Methanex to $65 from $70 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. With Iran tensions easing and shipping gradually resuming through the Strait of Hormuz, methanol prices and EBITDA are expected to have peaked in Q2 and then gradually normalize through the second half of 2026 into early 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

SEAPORT RESEARCH

• REZI Seaport Research analyst Jay Goldberg initiated coverage of Resideo with a Buy rating and $55 price target.

UBS

• DLO UBS analyst Kaio Prato upgraded DLocal to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $20, up from $16. The firm sees a "strong growth path" with improving operating leverage for DLocal. The shares have re-rating potential given the rising market confidence after a series of solid results from the company, the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS believes DLocal's growth will be supported by rising global digitalization, lower e-commerce penetration in emerging markets, and expansion into new geographies. It sees a "compelling multiple" at current share levels.

WELLS FARGO

• PLNT Wells Fargo analyst Anthony Bonadio is adding Planet Fitness to the firm's Q3 Tactical Ideas List. Wells sees favorable risk/reward in Planet Fitness on better-than-feared SCS given easing recent headwinds, an overstated competitive problem, growing benefit from oral GLP1 adoption and improving credibility on achievable Q2 estimates/2026 guidance. The firm has an Overweight rating on the shares with a price target of $65.
• URI Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich is adding United Rentals to the firm's Q3 Tactical Ideas List. Wells is a buyer of United Rentals entering Q3 given accelerating Machinery Supply tightening; U.S. private non-residential construction set to accelerate into 2027; and the company's margins inflecting as cost reductions are driving upside beyond rental rates. The firm has an Overweight rating on the shares with a price target of $1,245.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: AVAV CNXC

• China Composite PMI
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Prices M/M for April
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20-City index for April
• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 JOLTs Job openings for May
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Services for June
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: NKE PRGS STZ

• Goldman Sachs Digital Assets Conference, 6/30, in London

• 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for June
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for May
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BSET FC GBX

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM EST                 Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for May
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM EST                 Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Earnings After the Close: None

Friday July 3^rd

• U.S. stock markets are closed in observance of Independence Day

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