Early Look

Thursday, February 12, 2026

U.S. futures are looking higher, recovering after yesterday’s modest dip following a stronger jobs report that boosted sentiment about the strength of the economy, but at the same time lowered expectations of any near term interest rates cuts by the Fed. Stocks were mixed on Wednesday but it has been four S&P sectors that have been doing the heavy lifting for major averages to start the year, led by Energy (XLE) +22.8% YTD, Materials (XLB) up nearly 18% YTD (led by metals), Industrials (XLI) +12.75% YTD and Consumer Staples (XLP) +13.85% YTD the four big sector winners to start the year. On the flip side, the biggest declines this year are Financials (XLF) -3% YTD and small declines for Technology (XLK), Communications (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) which have been the biggest winners the last 2 years on Ai investment hopes. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dipped -10 points off record highs to 57,639, the Shanghai Index rose 2 points to 4,134, and the Hang Seng Index fell -233 points to 27,032. In Europe, the German DAX is surging 330 points to 25,186, while the FTSE 100 is up 15 points to 10,487. The next market catalyst outside of another deluge of corporate earnings is tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. A softer reading will build hopes that price pressures are easing while economic growth remains intact. On the earnings front, Cisco Systems (CSCO) tumbled roughly 7% after missing profit expectations in its late Wednesday report. McDonald’s (MCD) shares slipped despite the burger giant's earnings beat. Big earnings winners overnight that are indicated higher today include CGNX, FSLY and EQIX with notable declines for APP, CSCO, HUBS, INSP and ROL.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -66.74 points, or 0.13%, to 50,121.40
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -36.01 points, or 0.16%, to 23,066.47
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -10.30 points, or 0.38% to 2,669.47

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.85M
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for January…est. 4.18M
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data…est. (-257 bcf) vs. prior (-360 bcf)
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ABNB AEM AIP AMAT ANET BAP BFAM BIO BLX BROS CAE CART COHU COIN CPS CRSR CTRE DKNG DXCM ES EXPE FBIN FLO FORR FROG FRT HASI HCC HR HTGC IR KNSL LGCY MHK MORN NUS PACB PCOR PDFS PINS PSA RIVN ROKU RYAN SBRA SPSC TOST TRUP TSLX TWLO TXG VRTX WYNN YELP

• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• Stifel Transportation & Logistics Conference, 2/11-2/12 in Miami, FL
• TD Cowen 47th Annual Aerospace & Defense Conference, 2/11-2/12, in Arlington VA

• Global stock market strength as @GlobalMktObserv, noted on “X” that “Non-US equities are having their 3rd-BEST start to a year since 1988: The MSCI World ex-US Index is up ~8% through the first 29 trading days of 2026, the best performance in 14 YEARS. The only stronger starts were in 2012 at ~12% and 1991 at ~10%. This is a sharp reversal from recent years when US stocks dominated global returns, except for 2025.

• Darlington Ingredients (DAR) Q4 sales $1.7B vs. est. $1.53B; Q4 combined adjusted EBITDA was $336.1M, compared to $289.5M y/y; for FY25, fiscal year 2025, combined adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.03B, as compared to $1.08B for the same period in 2024.
• Rollins Inc. (ROL) Q4 adj EPS $0.25 vs est $0.27, adj EBITDA $193.8Mm vs est $210.11Mm on revs $912.9Mm vs est $926.76Mm; notes the negative impact of erratic weather patterns on business; meanwhile, consumer spending remains pressured.
• Service Corp. (SCI) Q4 adj EPS $1.14 vs est $1.15on revs $1.112B vs est $1.117B; guides FY adj EPS $4.05-4.35 vs est $4.26.

• Antero Resources (AR) Q4 adj Ebitda $422M vs. est. $445.9M and Q4 adj net income $133M vs. est. $156.9M; Q4 net production averaged 3.5 Bcfe/d, +2% y/y and expects 2026 production to average 4.1 Bcfe/d; sees 2027 production increasing to 4.5 Bcfe/d with additional capital.
• Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) shares fell after announces private offering of $125 mln 5-yr convertible bonds; said plans to use net offering proceeds to redeem $35-$45 mln principal amount of convertible debentures issued to YA II PN, Ltd and rest for general corporate purposes.
• Nabors Corp. (NBR) Q4 revs $797.5M vs. est. $808.53M; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA $221.56M beat analyst expectations $218.7M; said improved performance in International Drilling segment, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 11%; sees Q1 capex $170M-$180M and Q1 rig count 64-65 and year capex $730M-$760M.
• Noble Corp. (NE) Q4 adj EPS $0.09 vs. est. $0.21; Q4 revs $764M vs. est. $732.74M; Q4 adj net income $14M vs. est. $36.7Msees FY26 revenue $2.8B-$3B, vs. consensus $3.01B; sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $940M-$1.02B and capex $590M-$640M.

• RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR) announces thirty-first consecutive annual increase in dividend; renews share repurchase program and renews share repurchase program with $750M authorization.
• Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) Total Assets Under Management (AUM) of $320.2 billion, Other Assets of $3.0B, and Total Client Assets of $323.2B, as of January 31, 2026. For the month of January, Average Total AUM was $318.3 billion, average Other Assets was $2.9B.

• Inspire Medical (INSP) Q4 adj EPS $1.65 vs est $0.88 on revs $269.1Mm vs est $265.7Mm; guides FY revs $950Mm - $1.0B vs est $1.006B and adj EPS $1.85-2.35 vs est $1.75.
• Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Q4 adj EPS $1.88, in-line with consensus and Q4 product sales rose 29% y/y to $798.3M; Q4 adj net income $194.6M vs. est. $189.74M; INGREZZA's sales growth driven by double-digit prescription volume increase, offset by lower net price due to formulary access investments; sees FY26 Ingrezza net product sales $2.7B-$2.8B.
• Vaxcyte (PCVX) announced that the first participants were dosed in the OPUS-3 Phase 3 trial evaluating VAX-31, the company's next-generation 31-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate, in adults who have previously received pneumococcal vaccination.
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) shares rise; Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of (-$1.38) misses est. loss (-$0.90); said oral VK2735 to Advance into Phase 3 for obesity in 3Q26; phase 3 VANQUISH trials for Subcutaneous VK2735 in obesity ongoing; VANQUISH-1 enrollment complete, VANQUISH-2 nearing full enrollment.

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) announces proposed private offering of $1.0B of convertible Senior notes due 2036
• Curtis-Wright (CW) Q4 adj EPS $3.79 vs est $3.69 on sales $947Mm vs est $890.23Mm; guides FY sales $3.71-3.765B vs est $3.694B and EPS $14.70-15.15 vs est $14.62.
• Rayonier Inc. (RYN) Q4 EPS $0.20 vs. est. $0.11; Q4 revs $117.5M vs. est. $109.22M; Q4 adj Ebitda $61.7M vs. est. $55.35M driven by core segment performance; Adj EBITDA fell 8% due to lower stumpage realizations and non-timber income, despite higher harvest volumes; sees continued momentum in Real Estate segment to start 2026.
• Waste Connections (WCN) Q4 adj EPS $1.29 vs. consensus $1.27; Q4 revs $2.373B vs. est. $2.37B; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA(b) margin of 33.5% of revenue, up 110 bps y/y; sees FY26 revenue $9.9B-$9.95B vs. consensus $9.97B and sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $3.3B-$3.325B.

• Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 adj EPS $1.04 vs. est. $1.02 and revs rose 10% y/y to $15.3B vs. est. $15.1B; Q2 GAAP gross margin of 65.0% and Non-GAAP gross margin of 67.5% and sees Q3 operating margin 33.5%-34.5%; raised its full-year revenue forecast to $61.2B-$61.7B from prior $60.2B-$61B, driven by robust enterprise spending on its networking equipment amid the artificial intelligence boom.
• Cognex Corp. (CGNX) Q4 adj EPS $0.27 vs est $0.22, adj EBITDA $57Mm vs est $45.98Mm on revs $252Mm vs est $239.5Mm; guides Q1 revs $235-255Mm vs est $228.42Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 19-22% and adj EPS $0.22-0.26 vs est $0.19.
• Confluent (CFLT) reports Q4 adj EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.10; Q4 revs rose 20.5% y/y to $314.82M vs. est. $308.06M; not providing financial guidance amid IBM deal.
• Equinix Inc. (EQIX) shares rise on guide; Q4 revs $2.42B vs. est $2.46B; Q4 adj EBITDA $1.19B vs. est $1.21B; Q4 net income $265M vs. est. $371M; sees Q1 revenue $2.50B-$2.54B vs. est $2.45B and sees Q1 adj EBITDA $1.28B-$1.32B vs. est $1.21B; raises dividend.
• Fastly (FSLY) shares surge over 30%; Q4 EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.06 and revs rose 23% y/y to $172.61M vs. est. $161.36M; Q4 adj Gross Margin 64.0%; sees Q1 EPS $0.07-$0.10 vs. est. $0.01 and revs $168.0M–$174.0M vs. est. $159.6M and sees year revs $700M–$720M vs. est. $667.8M); Q4 Network Services Revenue: $130.8M; +19% y/y, Security Revenue: $35.4M +32% y/y and Enterprise Customers 628 (+32 y/y).
• HubSpot (HUBS) Q4 adj EPS $3.09 vs est $2.99, adj EBIT $191Mm vs est $183.81Mm on revs $846.746Mm vs est $830.54Mm; guides Q1 revs $862-863Mm vs est $838.17Mm, adj Outperform Inc $144-145Mm vs est $143.18Mm and adj EPS $2.46-2.48 vs est $2.33; sees FY revs $3.69-3.7B vs est $3.613B, adj Outperform Inc $736-740Mm vs est $707.99Mm and adj EPS $12.38-12.46 vs est $11.45
• Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q4 EPS $4.59 tops consensus $4.35 on revs rising 13.3% y/y to $3.38B vs. est. $3.34B driven by growth in International and North America; sees Q1 EPS 3.20-$3.25, vs. consensus $3.25 and sees Q1 revenue up 6%-7%, implying $2.68B-$2.70B, vs. consensus $2.76B.
• Q2 Holdings (QTWO) Q4 adj EBITDA $51.2Mm vs est $49.3Mm on revs $208.2Mm vs est $204.83Mm, adj gr mgn 58.6%; guides Q1 revs $212.5-216.5Mm vs est $209.51Mm and adj EBITDA $52.5-55.5Mm vs est $50.89Mm; sees FY revs $871-878Mm vs est $873.28Mm and adj EBITDA $225-230Mm vs est $225.83Mm.
• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) said it had started shipping its most advanced HBM4 chips to unnamed customers, as it tries to narrow the gap with rivals in supplying critical parts for Nvidia (NVDA) AI accelerators. Samsung had been slow in responding to the advanced HBM chip market, lagging behind rivals, including SK Hynix, in supplying previous-generation HBM chips.
• Tyler Technologies (TYL) Q4 adj EPS $2.64 vs est $2.72 on revs $575.2Mm vs est $591.07Mm; guides FY revs $2.5-2.55B vs est $2.557B and adj EPS $12.40-12.65 vs est $12.54.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, February 12, 2026

U.S. stocks were off to a good start before some modest selling pressure pulled major averages off their highs as continued weakness in heavily index weighted technology stocks (XLK, QQQ) are keeping a lid on markets that are seeing consistent market strength from industrials, materials, energy and consumer staples. The Nasdaq tries for first weekly advance in last five weeks as Mag 7 weakness along with software remain a drag. More strength in Europe as the Stoxx 600 hit a record high and in Asia, the Nikkei dipped slightly from its recent record high. Earnings season more than 65% done in the S&P 500 with a continued strong beat rate, but guidance has impacted many names. With stronger January jobs data behind us (data yesterday), attention turns to inflation as the consumer price index (CPI) report is tomorrow morning. Rate cut expectations have lessened after the better jobs reading, though housing data was weak today (but not impacting homebuilders which extend gains). Market remains all about momentum as tech drove markets higher the last 2 years, now taking a breather as investors pile into industrials (AI power plays) and materials (metals strength). Recap of some the overnight/morning biggest earnings movers below.

• Jan Existing Home Sales declined -8.4% toa 3.91M annual unit rate (vs. est. 4.18M) and vs Dec 4.27M or +4.4%; January inventory of homes for sale 1.22M units, 3.7 months' worth; the U.S. Jan National median home price for existing homes $396,800, +0.9% from Jan 2025.

• In Storage (NTAP, NTNX, PSTG, RBRK): Oppenheimer lowered estimates across sector saying they surveyed 30 storage value-added-resellers (VARs) across North America and Europe. Their channel checks suggest overall IT spend on Storage was relatively stable for 4Q25. However, as we look to CY26 growth expectations, the outlook from VARs has deteriorated materially compared to their growth outlook for CY25 last quarter.
• Hardware/PC: PC names were lower (DELL, HPQ) after overnight news from Lenovo Group warning about mounting pressure on PC shipments as a worsening memory-chip shortage grips the industry. Chief Executive Yang Yuanqing told Reuters after the company released third-quarter results that the world's largest PC maker has raised prices to offset surging memory costs, while accelerating its push into the fast-growing Ai inference market.
• In Transports: FDX said at its annual investor day that adj Q3 EPS would top Wall Street's average estimate and set growth targets through its fiscal year ending in May 2029 including consolidated revenue of $98 billion, operating income of $8 billion and an operating margin of 8%. Trucking stocks CHRW, LSTR, JBHT, KNX, WERN were weak possibly on news late yesterday that U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy  issued a final rule to stop unqualified foreign drivers from obtaining licenses to drive commercial trucks and buses.
• In Restaurants: MCD Q4 results included above-consensus EPS and global comp store sales growth as it executed its value strategy and leaned into its marketing capabilities to drive outperformance/share gains; posted Q4 comp sales +5.7%, above est. +3.76%, but trims EPS outlook slightly. Jefferies said their data analysis suggests BROS and BRCB can continue to outperform despite fears of competitive risk. QSR quarterly same-store sales growth of 3.1%, compared with estimates of a 2.73% rise on better EPS, while Burger King U.S. rose 2.6% for the quarter, but missed estimates of a 3.5% rise, though international segment saw comparable sales growth accelerate to 5.8% from 4.9% a year ago and Popeyes chain reported a 4.9% fall in quarterly sales.

• CGNX +35%; shares jumped as reported adj. 4Q25 EPS of $0.27, which beat consensus of $0.22 as revenues of $252M increased 10% y/y and were above consensus of $239M. Revenue was also above the midpoint of the Company’s prior guidance of $230M-$245M, including the one-time benefit.
• CROX +20%; shares jumped after strong year EPS guidance of $12.88-$13.35, above estimates of $11.89 and topped Q4 sales and profit expectations, while is targeting $100M of cost savings in 2026.
• EQIX +13%; as the company introduced robust 2026 and Q1 guidance, citing demand for its digital infrastructure, even as Q4 earnings and revenue fell short of the Wall Street consensus estimates; Recurring revenue came in 1.3% better than expected, while total revenue missed by 1.5%, due to a shift in timing for a large JV-related deal.
• FSLY +66%; shares surged on beat and raise quarter as network and Security revenue accelerated for their fourth consecutive quarters each, with both segments showing the ability to Land customers Independent of the other and showing the ability to cross-sell between the two.
• HUBS +12%; reported 4Q revenue ahead of the consensus estimate +20%/+18%E, helped by 2pts of FX. Constant currency billings were ahead at +20%/+18%E and NRR improved to 105%. Management introduced a FY26 ex-FX revenue growth outlook of 16% in line with consensus 16%E.
• NVCR +30%; shares surge as the FDA approved Novocure's Optune pax, a first-of-its-kind device for treatment of adult patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer
• VKTX +13%; shares rallied after announcing oral VK2735 to Advance into Phase 3 for Obesity in 3Q26. This trial will provide data to potentially further differentiate VK2735 as the only dual agonist molecule with the potential to dose monthly or to allow transition from subcutaneous to oral administration for weight maintenance.

• ASTS -13%; shares fell after the satellite communications firm announces pricing private offering of $1B 2.25% convertible bonds (CBs) due Apr 15, 2036and issued about 6.3M shares in concurrent direct offerings to repurchase $300 mln of its existing CBs due 2032.
• BAX -12%; shares fell as Q4 EPS were below expectations ($0.44 vs $0.54 est) and guided FY26 below the street ($1.85 - $2.05 vs $2.27 est) along with FY26 Revenue growth +flat to 1% y/y vs FactSet +2.0%.
• CSCO -10%; quarterly revs exceeded expectations, driven by Networking growth of 30%, well above consensus of 14.5%, likely benefiting from Ai Revenue, but posted quarterly adjusted gross margin below market estimates (67.5% for Q2 vs 68% est.) as strong hardware growth, higher Cloud mix, and a 400% YoY hike in memory pricing is pushing gross margins down 200bps sequentially as per Bank America.
• ICLR -35%; after saying it is investigating accounting issues related to how it recorded revenue from 2023-25; early findings show revenue for 2023-2024 may have been overstated by under 2% each year; said it is delaying its Q4/2025 earnings until April 30 and has withdrawn its 2025 financial forecast.
• INSP -7%; shares fell as Q425 revenue was consistent with the preliminary range provided in mid-January but lowered its 2026 revenue outlook to reflect recent changes in facility reimbursement, as well as evolving Dynamics around physician reimbursement.
• MCRB -31%; is pausing additional investment in the SER-155 (allo-HSCT) program and will shift its operational focus to high-value earlier-stage pipeline programs while continuing to seek funding for the SER-155 Phase 2 study.
• PAYC -2%; reported slightly better Q4 results, finishing 2025 on a positive note, with improvements around retention and client count growth, and sales capacity expansion, but shares fell after issued rather underwhelming 2026 recurring growth outlook of 7.5%, a considerable deceleration from the 11.3% exiting Q4
• SNY -3%; after ousted CEO Paul Hudson on Thursday, ending a six-year tenure and appointed Belén Garijo, the head of German drugmaker Merck KGaA as new chief executive.

Closing Recap

Thursday, February 12, 2026

U.S. stocks were broadly lower on Thursday as additional weakness in technology shares (XLK -2.5%, QQQ -2%) dragged major averages that are heavily weighted in tech. All three of the major indexes on Wall Street were down more than 1% each while the Smallcap Russell 2000 fell more over 2%. Dow Jones Transport Average tumbled to one-week lows, falling as much as -6% led by a sharp decline in trucking stocks (Index had been at record highs this past week – more below on truckers). Precious metals saw broad pullback again with silver, gold, platinum tumbling; no reprieve for Bitcoin as prices down again in mid $65K level (off Oct highs $126K). More strength overseas as the “buy Japan” trade continues to gain momentum after PM Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory increased investor confidence, while the Stoxx 600 index in Europe hit all-time highs. But U.S. markets were led by defensive sectors as Staples, Utilities, REITs saw gains, but big declines in Technology as software stumbled around 3% giving back its recent bounce and Mag 7 declined with AMZN breaking below $200 falling for an 8^th straight day. Nasdaq looks to be on track for its 6^th straight week of declines in a rough start to the New Year, while Industrials, Materials, Energy and Consumer Staples continue to lead (though took a breather today). Economic data was weaker with softer housing data and jobless claims ahead of tomorrow’s CPI inflation reading while a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report on Wednesday eroded near-term rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve…but right now Wall Street being impacted greatly by AI impacts, see below.

Different U.S. stock sectors seem to be crashing day after day all on renewed AI fears. The "AI Scare Trade" is spreading from sector to sector, crushing stocks across the board. It started with software (IGV, ORCL, CRM), travel/leisure (BKNG, EXPE), learning tools (DUOL, COUR), gaming crushed (U, APP, RBLX), then the last week moved to private credit (APO, BX, CG, OWL), insurance brokers (AJG, MMC), financials (SCHW, MS, LPLA, RJF), real estate services (CBRE, CWK), and today logistics (CHRW, RXO, EXPD) stocks are plunging double digits. The latest trigger was a press release from Algorhythm Holdings claiming its AI platform enables customers to scale freight volumes +300% to +400% without adding headcount. Names previously considered AI winners are now being reassessed for disruption risk as well. Every day, a new sector falls victim to AI disruption fears with buyers not stepping in at this point. Other names like media (DIS, PSKY, NFLX) fell after xAI meeting yesterday - talked about creation of video. The Alts/PE after fears of tax planning/analyzing statements and documents hitting full service names. Gaming fell fears that "world models" like Google's Project Genie will displace game engines. What will tomorrow’s target be remains the question? Or better, at what point do buyers step in with fears of the AI impact being overdone?

Sentiment data: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index slipped to 80.61 from last week's 84.93 (3rd Reading sub-90 since 11/26 and 3rd in last 4 weeks) - 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 was the highest since 7-3-24 - 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 - Last Quarter Average (Q4) of 92.26; 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +0.4% vs +10.7% last week. Bulls fall to 38.5% from 39.7%, Neutrals fall to 23.3% from 31.3%, Bears rise to 38.1% from 29%.

Interesting market stats: 1) @ KobeissiLetter tweets: "This is incredible: 0DTE options now reflect a record ~78% of all daily Nasdaq 100 options volume, up +23 points since 2024. For the S&P 500, 0DTE represents ~65% of daily options volume, up from ~50% in January 2024. Furthermore, 0DTE accounts for a near-record ~60% of options trading volume in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, and the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY. This is followed by the Russell 2000 ETF, $IWM, where 0DTE reflects ~40% of options activity. As a result, 0DTE options now account for a record 55% of volume across these assets, up from 38% in 2024." 2) In another interesting data point, @Bluekurtic tweeted, “28 trading days into 2026, equal-weight S&P 500 $RSP is outperforming cap-weight $SPY by the widest margin at this point in any year at least since 2004. Only 3 prior cases saw over 2% $SPY underperformance: 2008, 2019, and 2022”.

• Jan Existing Home Sales declined -8.4% toa 3.91M annual unit rate (vs. est. 4.18M) and vs Dec 4.27M or +4.4%; January inventory of homes for sale 1.22M units, 3.7 months' worth; the U.S. Jan National median home price for existing homes $396,800, +0.9% from Jan 2025.

• U.S. crude oil futures settle at $62.84/bbl, down $1.79, or 2.77% while Brent crude oil settle at $67.52/bbl, down $1.88, or 2.71%. U.S. natural gas futures climbed 2% on near-record flows to LNG export plants and a federal report showing energy firms pulled more gas than usual out of storage for a second week in a row to meet surging heating demand during a lingering Arctic freeze. Gas futures for March delivery on NYMEX rose 5.8c, or 1.8%, to settle at $3.217 per million British thermal units. After pulling a record 360 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the week ended January 30, energy firms pulled 249 bcf from stockpiles during the week.
• Treasury yields fell as Thursday's "risk-off" trade is spurring a rally in U.S. Treasurys, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a two-month low. The yield on the 10-year note recently hit as low as 4.102%, the lowest intraday level since Dec. 11. It was followed by a strong bond auction as the U.S. sold $25B in 30-year bonds at high yield 4.750%, well below the 4.771% when issued prior as the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.66 (vs. 2.42 prior auction) and primary dealers take 5.88% of U.S. 30-year bond sale, direct 24.18% and indirect 69.94%. The benchmark 10-yr yield fell -8bps to 4.10% down for the 5^th time in 6 sessions.
• Raw sugar futures on the ICE exchange hit 13.67 cents per lb. during the session, lowest since October 2020, while white or refined sugar futures , which expires on Friday, closed down 2.9% at $376.10 per metric ton, the lowest level since June 2020. New York cocoa ended down -3.4% at $3,724 a ton, having hit its lowest since October 2023 at $3,717, while London cocoa closed down 4.7% at 2,630 pounds per ton, lowest level since June 2023.

• In Footwear: BIRK stuck to its annual growth forecast saying demand in the holiday shopping period was robust, but shares fell as gross profit margin was 57.4%, down from 60.3% last year, hurt by a weaker dollar and a 130-basis-point hit from U.S. tariffs. CROX shares jumped after strong year EPS guidance of $12.88-$13.35, above estimates of $11.89 and topped Q4 sales and profit expectations, while is targeting $100M of cost savings in 2026.
• In Food: UTZ Q4 EPS $0.26 beats $0.25 consensus, revenue $342.2M in line with guidance $342-343M and near FactSet $343.4M consensus; adjusted EBITDA $62.4M within guidance $62-64M and near $63.2M consensus. FY26 guidance: organic net sales growth 2%-3% driven by continued Branded Salty Snacks growth, particularly Power Four Brands, with 53rd week benefiting reported net sales by ~$20M in Q4

• Utilities: XLU outperformed in the S&P on broad strength for power stocks; AEP hit record highs after results for Q4 beat  citing surge in power demand driven by large hyperscalers and raised its capex $5 billion to $8 billion in additional transmission and generation projects beyond its current $72 billion five-year capital investment plan; EXC shares also outperformed on better results and after projected $41.3B of capital expenditure over the next four years, from $38B previously; also guided year EPS $2.81-$2.91 vs. est. $2.84. ETR was another strong earning result and capex raise as boosted long-term capital expenditure plan by $2 billion to $43B, as power producers rush to meet growing demand from AI-driven data centers.

• In Alts/Wealth Managers/Brokers: BMO Capital noted weakness in KKR, ARES, OWL, STEP, CG as Ai fear trade hits group – but says it does not mean there is real risk. They said for Alts, concerns have centered on investment exposure to software that will be disrupted by Ai. In Wealth, narratives about disruption are not new, as Robo-advisors were heralded as “the end of the Wm industry” roughly a decade ago. The negative arguments were overblown then, which feels remarkably similar to today. BMO views Ai as a tool that WM firms will leverage to enhance their offerings and create efficiencies, but believe Ai seems unlikely to replace demand for humans.
• Commercial Real Estate stocks declined (CBRE, CWK, SLG, JLL, VNO) their biggest drops since 2020 on fears AI tools could automate parts of leasing & deal workflows & eventually pressure fee-heavy, labor-intensive models.
• In Crypto: no notable bounce for Bitcoin, Ethereum, other coins or Bitcoin leveraged stocks as remains under pressure the last few months after seeing a 50% drawdown from record highs above $126K in October for Bitcoin. COIN was double downgraded from Buy to Sell at Monness and cutting its estimates again as assumption of a steady recovery over course of C26 were foolish + facile given typical length and Magnitude of crypto bear markets. Monness now models softness through 1H26 and C26/C27 below Street).
• Human resources: PAYC reported slightly better Q4 results, finishing 2025 on a positive note, with improvements around retention and client count growth, and sales capacity expansion, but shares fell after issued rather underwhelming 2026 recurring growth outlook of 7.5%, a considerable deceleration from the 11.3% exiting Q4.

• GTY reported a 4Q25 AFFO beat (+$0.01 vs. consensus) and affirmed its previously announced FY26 AFFO guidance (+2.5% y/y), with strong 4Q25 investment activity of $135M at an initial cash yield of 7.9%. Notably, the committed pipeline increased to $100M, and GTY was active in the equity capital markets.
• IRM forecasts 2026 revs $7.63B-$7.78B vs. analysts' avg. estimate of $7.60B and expects adj. AFFO between $5.69 and $5.79 per share for 2026 vs. estimates of $5.73 per share.
• IRT initial '26 CFFO guidance missed cons. by ~4% at the midpoint. SS Rev. growth guidance of 1.7% at the midpoint is stable vs. 2025, and being driven by accelerating lease rate growth, higher occupancy, lower bad debt, and higher other income.
• KIM Q4 net income per share fell yr/yr, while FFO per share rose; achieved record occupancy levels, with small shop occupancy at 92.7%; anticipates same property NOI growth of 2.5% to 3.5% in 2026

• HIMS shares declined for its 10th straight day of losses
• MCRB is pausing additional investment in the SER-155 (allo-HSCT) program and will shift its operational focus to high-value earlier-stage pipeline programs while continuing to seek funding for the SER-155 Phase 2 study.
• NBIX FY26 guide and 4Q25 revenues for Ingrezza were in-line, with the midpoint of the $2.7B-$2.8B FY26 guide lining up with consensus's $2.75B, and 4Q25 revenues of $658M bracketed by consensus$659M; rev beat driven by impressive performance for Crenessity with $135.3M sales exceeding $117.0M consensus.
• NKTR 6.6M share Secondary priced at $58.00.
• NVO upgraded from Underperform to Hold at Jefferies after consensus has cut '27E sales 20% and profits 30%, and with a sharp move downwards in cons recommendations, which neutralizes their long-standing Underperform.
• SNY ousted CEO Paul Hudson on Thursday, ending a six-year tenure and appointed Belén Garijo, the head of German drugmaker Merck KGaA as new chief executive
• VERX was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies saying 4Q results and the 2026 outlook were just ok while the deterioration in the underlying KPIs seen in 4Q25 leaves little confidence in the near-term outlook.
• VKTX shares rallied after announcing oral VK2735 to Advance into Phase 3 for Obesity in 3Q26. This trial will provide data to potentially further differentiate VK2735 as the only dual agonist molecule with the potential to dose monthly or to allow transition from subcutaneous to oral administration for weight maintenance.
• WST Q4 revs $805M topped est. $794.8M while forecasts 2026 adj EPS of $7.85-$8.20, above analysts' estimates of $7.78 and annual revenue to be between $3.22B-$3.28B vs. estimates of $3.25B.

• In Medical Research: shares of ICLR tumbled after saying it is investigating accounting issues related to how it recorded revenue from 2023-25; early findings show revenue for 2023-2024 may have been overstated by under 2% each year; said it is delaying its Q4/2025 earnings until April 30 and has withdrawn its 2025 financial forecast.
• Medical Equipment: INSP shares fell as Q425 revenue was consistent with the prelim range provided in mid-January but lowered its 2026 revenue outlook to reflect recent changes in facility reimbursement, as well as evolving Dynamics around physician reimbursement. BAX shares fell as Q4 EPS were below expectations ($0.44 vs $0.54 est) and guided FY26 below the street ($1.85 - $2.05 vs $2.27 est) along with FY26 Revenue growth +flat to 1% y/y vs FactSet +2.0%. NVCR shares surge as the FDA approved Novocure's Optune pax, a first-of-its-kind device for treatment of adult patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer.
• Healthcare Technology: OSCR was upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James with $18 price target saying the stock's relative valuation is attractive at current levels as the company's margins recover across the Affordable Care Act exchange market.
• Medical Supplies: BRKR Q4 adj EPS of $0.59 missed the $0.65 estimate on better revs $977.2M vs. est. $960.8M and issued better 2026 rev guidance.
• Animal Health sector: ZTS q4 adj EPS and revenues topped consensus as revs at its companion-animal segment increased 2% to $1.60B and issued higher annual EPS outlook of $7.00-$7.10 topping the $6.80 consensus as demand across its companion-animal portfolio and resilient international markets helped offset softer US trends

• Trucking stocks CHRW, LSTR, EXPD, JBHT, KNX, RXO, WERN were weak on Ai fears if you can believe it. The latest trigger was a press release from Algorhythm Holdings claiming its AI platform enables customers to scale freight volumes +300% to +400% without adding headcount. There was also news late yesterday that U.S. Transportation Secretary Duffy  issued a final rule to stop unqualified foreign drivers from obtaining licenses to drive commercial trucks and buses. Separately, @tomik99 noted on X, “In 6 weeks, a working Freight Management System for air & ocean forwarders built on @OpenMercato. Built in weeks, not years – ~7% of traditional cost, – AI agents at the core – Zero license fees, – Zero vendor lock-in.” showing again the potential power of AI.
• Industrials: CGNX shares jumped as reported adj. 4Q25 EPS of $0.27, which beat consensus of $0.22 as revenues of $252M increased 10% y/y and were above consensus of $239M. Revenue was also above the midpoint of the Company’s prior guidance of $230M-$245M, including the one-time benefit.
• Satellite/Drone: ASTS shares fell after the satellite communications firm announces pricing private offering of $1B 2.25% convertible bonds (CBs) due Apr 15, 2036and issued about 6.3M shares in concurrent direct offerings to repurchase $300 mln of its existing CBs due 2032.
• Aerospace & Defense: HII was upgraded to Neutral at Bank America and raised tgt to $400 from $300 as expects the vast amount of money flowing into the shipbuilding industry to continue to bolster HII and government support for the maritime industrial base to alleviate some labor and supply chain challenges. HWM reported a Q4 adj EPS beat and guided Q1 profit above estimates ($1.09-$1.11 vs. est. $1.02), citing strong aerospace demand.
• In Lithium: ALB Q4 results beat on healthy volumes and progress on costs while improved Lithium prices supported results in Q4 and point to an encouraging outlook for '26 based on the current level of ~$20/kg.

• Telecom & Cable: VZ new 52-week highs, up a 4th straight day and up 11 out of last 12 days as telco/Cable extending recent gains, while CMCSA came into the day with a 7 day winning streak. Reuters reported CMCSA’s owned Sky's $2.2B ITV deal talks have slowed, three sources note, citing changing Media landscape per Reuters

• Software: HUBS reported Q4 revenue 2% above the Street with EBIT margin roughly 40basis points higher and guided 2026 revenue 2% above consensus, while net recurring revenue expanded to 105%, and solid margin improvement, particularly in GAAP as they reduce SBC.
• IT Services & Consulting: FSLY shares surged on beat and raise quarter as network and Security revenue accelerated for their fourth consecutive quarters each, with both segments showing the ability to Land customers Independent of the other and showing the ability to cross-sell between the two.
• AI Infrastructure sector: neocloud company NBIS said it is planning a new 240-megawatt data centre in Béthune, France, near Lille, that will be one of Europe’s largest when it is finished; they said remain on track to end the year with ARR of $7-9B; Capital expenditures ballooned to about $2.1 billion in Q4, compared with just $416 million last year for GPU and data center expansion.
• Software Advertising/Gaming: APP delivered a clean beat & raise despite narrative volatility as Q425 EBITDA was MSD above Street, Q1 revenue guidance +5-7% q/q was above the year-ago driven by both a healthy Gaming market and e-com trends and mgmt addressed competitive threats on the demand-side (META) and supply-side (Cloud X) which have weighed heavily on shares this past week (along with U, RBLX as well).
• Data Centers: EQIX introduced robust 2026 and Q1 guidance, citing demand for its digital infrastructure, even as Q4 earnings and revenue fell short of the Wall Street consensus estimates; Recurring revenue came in 1.3% better than expected, while total revenue missed by 1.5%, due to a shift in timing for a large JV-related deal.
• In Storage (NTAP, NTNX, PSTG, RBRK): Oppenheimer lowered estimates across sector saying they surveyed 30 storage value-added-resellers (VARs) across North America and Europe. Their channel checks suggest overall IT spend on Storage was relatively stable for 4Q25. However, as we look to CY26 growth expectations, the outlook from VARs has deteriorated materially compared to their growth outlook for CY25 last quarter.
• Hardware/PC: PC names were lower (DELL, HPQ) after overnight news from Lenovo Group warning about mounting pressure on PC shipments as a worsening memory-chip shortage grips the industry. Chief Executive Yang Yuanqing told Reuters after the company released third-quarter results that the world's largest PC maker has raised prices to offset surging memory costs, while accelerating its push into the fast-growing Ai inference market. Bank America said rising memory costs pose measurable earnings risks for major PC makers (DELL, HPQ), but the impact on AAPL Apple should remain limited as now expects 2026 PC units to fall 8% y/y, vs. prior view of flat growth.

• Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) said it had started shipping its most advanced HBM4 chips to unnamed customers, as it tries to narrow the gap with rivals in supplying critical parts for Nvidia (NVDA) AI accelerators. Samsung had been slow in responding to the advanced HBM chip market, lagging behind rivals, including SK Hynix, in supplying previous-generation HBM chips.
• ADI was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raised tgt to $375 from $315 saying the company has the highest industrial exposure within the analog group "by far" and a strong correlation between its sales growth and the Purchasing Managers' Index.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, February 12, 2026

• HUBS Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $300 from $525 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The firm says the key takeaway from the earnings call was HubSpot's disclosure of net new annual recurring revenue growth of 24% in fiscal 2025. HubSpot's business is improving its medium-term growth outlook, despite "market noise," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays cites lower equity valuations in the space for the target cut but believes the company is positioned well for an improving growth story throughout fiscal 2026.

• HUBS Bernstein raised the firm's price target on HubSpot to $463 from $448 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes HubSpot delivered a solid Q4, exactly as it expected in its Preview, with 20% revenue growth and solid margin improvement, particularly in GAAP as they reduce SBC.
• CRTO Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Criteo to $43 from $50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says FY26 outlook was close to consensus expectations, but the Q1 drawdown linked to the two major client losses announced in May 2025 will be steeper than anticipated.

• HII BofA upgraded HII to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $400, up from $300. The firm expects the "vast amount of money" flowing into the shipbuilding industry to continue to bolster HII and government support for the maritime industrial base to alleviate some labor and supply chain challenges, the analyst tells investors. While execution still remains a risk, it does appear offset by end market growth as the Navy awards Virginia Class Block VI, the new frigate program matures, and the administration finalizes its plans for the Trump-class battleship, the analyst added.
• GNRC BofA raised the firm's price target on Generac to $260 from $224 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q4 reinforced the shift from "an outage-sensitive resi story to a diversified power-resiliency platform with structural hyperscale exposure," the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note. The firm sees a path to doubling Commercial and industrial in three years on its estimates if Generac lands even one hyperscaler, noting that two would be upside.
• CLF BofA lowered the firm's price target on Cleveland-Cliffs to $13 from $14.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees the potential for a POSCO partnership to materially improve Cliffs' financial and operating outlook, but reiterates a Neutral rating given the relatively stretched balance sheet, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• RBC BofA raised the firm's price target on RBC Bearings to $650 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. On the long-cycle side, the firm sees accelerating growth in the Aero markets, while on RBC's shorter-cycle industrial segment the firm is "incrementally more positive" as the company noted end-markets continue to recover, the analyst tells investors.

• APP BTIG lowered the firm's price target on AppLovin to $640 from $771 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported Q4 results that surpassed the firm's expectations, but fell slightly shy of buyside estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. AppLovin is taking a prudent approach to reducing/removing the multiple hurdles for new advertisers onboarding to the platform before scaling up awareness marketing - monetary costs, creative challenges, and learning curve/laziness, the firm added.
• HUBS BTIG lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $300 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The company's net-new ARR growth continues to outpace revenue growth, and the management expects this same dynamic to continue in FY26, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG adds that the current share levels are highly attractive following the print, noting that while AI monetization remains the key unlock for shares to work, HubSpot maintains strong underlying growth drivers.
• PANW BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Palo Alto Networks to $200 from $248 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The tone coming from the firm's checks with eleven contacts on broader cyber security trends improved slightly from last quarter as data points suggest improved activity with partners in both December and January, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PAYC BTIG analyst Allan Verkhovski lowered the firm's price target on Paycom to $140 from $195 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results. The company's FY26 recurring revenue guide for 7.5% came in below the firm's expectation of about 9%, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• PTON Citi analyst Ronald Josey lowered the firm's price target on Peloton to $5 from $8.25 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares post the earnings report. The company is making operational improvements but the price increase brought higher churn, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SNAP Citi lowered the firm's price target on Snap to $6 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model pos the Q4 report Snap is facing continued brand advertising headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CSCO Citi raised the firm's price target on Cisco to $90 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's weaker gross margins from higher memory costs were offset by its networking momentum in the quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites multiple expansion of AI stocks for the target boost.
• VRT Citi analyst Andrew Kaplowitz raised the firm's price target on Vertiv to $286 from $220 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The firm sees the company's order trends and accelerating organic revenue growth driving "outsized" earrings growth.

• VRT Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on Vertiv to $281 from $204 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q4 report as solid. The company's order results "were far better than we could have imagined," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• PAYC Guggenheim analyst Jacob Smith lowered the firm's price target on Paycom to $180 from $210 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares to account for lowered near-term estimates and long-term uncertainty. While Paycom's fourth quarter was largely in line with buyside expectations, 2026 Recurring and Other revenue guidance of 7-8% growth "comes as a disappointing starting point for the upcoming year," the analyst tells investors.
• HUM Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Humana to $252 from $312 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q4 MLR upside was overshadowed by 2026's outsized 25% membership growth, fueling an incremental roughly $1B net Stars headwind, the analyst tells investors. The firm, which expects further debates on how Humana will choose to navigate the 2027 rate environment, says it chooses to take "a prudent view" on 2027 EPS generation, resulting in its lowered target.
• YUM Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort raised the firm's price target on Yum! Brands to $180 from $160 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after updating estimates and raising 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts by 5c each. The firm expects the strategic review of the Pizza Hut business to lead to a sale of the brand, the analyst noted.

• PAYC Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Paycom to $130 from $190 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Q4 results were "fine," but a "disappointing" 2026 growth outlook will likely overshadow the results, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note. While shares are inexpensive, the results "largely validate company-specific and industry concerns," the analyst added.
• HUBS Jefferies analyst Samad Samana lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $325 from $560 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q4 results were "stable, not spectacular" and "the AI boogeyman was not tamed," which is an issue for the entire software complex, the analyst tells investors. However, commentary on NNARR growth, underlying leading indicators, and acceleration "does provide some hope that there are better days ahead," the analyst added.

• MELI JPMorgan upgraded MercadoLibre to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $2,800, up from $2,650. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade following the stock's recent underperformance. Shopee increased its take rates last week, "signaling a more benign competitive environment," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan also no longer sees material downside risk to MercadoLibre's consensus estimates for 2026 and 2027. The company should be able to "sustain a good pace of growth" in Brazil in Q4 of 2025, above 30%, adds the firm.
• VVV JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas downgraded Valvoline to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $35, up from $30. The firm says the integration of the new Breeze stores is likely to lower Valvoline's margins in fiscal 2026, more than offsetting the margin benefits from base oil prices moving lower. Breeze's margin profile is lower than that of legacy Valvoline, and integrating the stores will likely require upfront expenses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• KHC JPMorgan downgraded Kraft Heinz to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $22, down from $24. The company reported a Q4 beat but its 2026 organic sales growth and earnings outlooks were below consensus estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees challenges that could limit Kraft's expected volume inflection as 2026 progresses. JPMorgan cites the company's ongoing volume challenges and planned investments for the downgrade.
• SHOP JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Shopify to $146 from $180 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the QW report. The firm says Shopify's volume and revenue beat was "not enough to break through broader negative sentiment in application software and payments." However, it believes the company's volume and gross profit growth "remain robust." JPMorgan says Shopify's growth trends "remain strong and the thesis that AI will displace Shopify feels less formulated."
• APP JPMorgan analyst Cory Carpenter lowered the firm's price target on AppLovin to $500 from $650 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported revenue growth of 18% quarter-over-quarter, slightly below investor expectations of 20%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Meta will remain an overhang for AppLovin shares and it thinks the most bullish e-commerce expectations are likely to be slightly tempered coming out of earnings.
• GNRC JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse raised the firm's price target on Generac to $229 from $200 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company Q4 results below expectations due to continued weakness in power outage activity, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm says Generac's fiscal 2026 guidance was above expectations.
• EQIX JPMorgan analyst Richard Choe raised the firm's price target on Equinix to $1,100 from $950 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company exported strong Q4 results and issued better than expected 2026 guidance.

• CASY KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Casey's General Stores to $700 from $680 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm attended Alimentation Couche-Tard's 2026 Business Strategy Update and came away incrementally positive on the consolidation opportunity in the U.S., the importance of food offerings, and the continued increases in breakeven across the industry.
• HUBS KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $340 from $400 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Guidance of 16% revenue growth in constant currency for 2026 does not spell acceleration, the firm argues. Even adjusting for the company's typical upside, there is still a delta between the stated goal of getting back to 20% growth and the level of growth in this initial outlook, KeyBanc adds.
• PAYC KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Paycom to $195 from $250 to reflect recent valuation pullback, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Paycom reported slightly better Q4 results, finishing 2025 on a positive note, with improvements around retention and client count growth, and sales capacity expansion. That said, the company issued rather underwhelming 2026 recurring growth outlook of 7.5%, a considerable deceleration from the 11.3% exiting Q4.
• PSN KeyBanc analyst Sangita Jain lowered the firm's price target on Parsons to $73 from $80 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes shares sold off as it capped a difficult year with results below expectations. Looking ahead, guidance appears achievable with no large projects skewing it, KeyBanc adds.
• WAB KeyBanc analyst Steve Barger raised the firm's price target on Wabtec to $308 from $240 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes shares rose amid a solid beat, ongoing momentum in its International markets, continued margin expansion in Transit, and upcoming benefits from M&A. KeyBanc thinks the largest opportunity for Wabtec in the medium term is a North American fleet renewal cycle and thinks the company's visibility and sale growth track record should enable double digit EPS growth through the decade.

• HUBS Morgan Stanley analyst Elizabeth Porter lowered the firm's price target on HubSpot to $405 from $577 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The Q4 report "caps a year of growth stability at HubSpot," but a lack of acceleration likely fails to change the near-term narrative, the analyst tells investor.
• APP Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on AppLovin to $720 from $800 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. After "another strong quarter," the firm raised its FY26 and FY27 EBITDA estimates by 2% each, but lowered its price target to mark valuation to market, calling AppLovin a "great business on sale."

• GFS Needham raised the firm's price target on GlobalFoundries to $55 from $42 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 revenue was at the high-end of guidance with strength seen in Automotive and Data Center-related segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CLBT Needham lowered the firm's price target on Cellebrite to $18 from $24 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company outperformed guidance and expectations, with total ARR growing 21% y/y, while the management's 2026 outlook lived up to commentary on the prior earnings call for conviction in an ARR re-acceleration, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CAN Rosenblatt lowered the firm's price target on Canaan to $2.25 from $2.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees Q1 as the trough for revenue as new A15 and A16-based rigs will improve efficiencies for customers and self-mining, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

• RGTI TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar downgraded Rigetti Computing to Hold from Buy without a price target. The firm sees a balanced risk/reward at current share levels due to Rigetti's "premium valuation" relative to peers. The company may also need new capital to fund its 200mm fab, the analyst tells investors in a research note. TD believes Rigetti is facing greater competition headwinds are being excluded from Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage B program.
• GCMG TD Cowen upgraded GCM Grosvenor to Buy from Hold with a $14 price target.

• U UBS lowered the firm's price target on Unity to $26 from $32 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The revenue shortfall was driven by weakness in Unity's Grow segment, particularly ironSource, rather than Vector, which appears to be regaining advertiser budgets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With shares down roughly 27%, much of the ironSource headwind is likely priced in, and future performance will hinge on faster Vector growth, potential upside from runtime data integration in 2Q26, and whether EBITDA expectations prove too optimistic without increased R&D investment, the firm says.
• EQIX UBS raised the firm's price target on Equinix to $1,010 from $950 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Equinix provided strong 2026 guidance despite a quarterly miss driven by timing shifts of xScale fees into 2026, with normalized revenue growth of 9%-10% and accelerating margin expansion exceeding prior expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Retail bookings and record pre-sales activity highlight robust, diversified demand, suggesting upside risk to estimates amid a favorable demand and pricing environment, UBS says.
• APP UBS raised the firm's price target on AppLovin to $740 from $686 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Better-than-expected Q4 revenue and a strong 1Q26 outlook are being driven by two durable vectors: accelerating gaming ad budgets and growing non-endemic spend, even with limited advertiser access, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Continued improvements in AppLovin's ad recommendation engine and strong return on ad spend support a stronger-for-longer growth profile with expanding adjusted EBITDA margins, the firm adds.
• MCD UBS raised the firm's price target on McDonald's to $365 from $350 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The Q4 results highlighted strong global same-store sales and progress on strategic initiatives, with momentum expected to continue in 2026 despite macro pressures, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Accelerating new store growth, value and menu innovation, and marketing initiatives support market share gains, while 2026 operating profit is projected higher, reinforcing confidence in McDonald's sales trajectory and defensive earnings profile, the firm says.

• ROL Wells Fargo downgraded Rollins to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $56, down from $68, following Q4 results that saw a broad-based miss across all segments due to weather headwinds. The firm is concerned these headwinds could persist into first half of the year and weigh on organic growth.
• EQIX Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Equinix to $975 from $925 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says that a stronger-than-expected bookings and ramp in recurring revenues should bolster confidence in the Equinix story, with AFFO/share coming in ahead of expectations.
• AMCX Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on AMC Networks to $10 from $8 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says AMC will see 2026 adjusted operating income declining by a percentage in the mid- to high-teens year-over-year, with free cash flow keeping leverage flat. While the operational puts/takes limit equity upside, "The Walking Dead" rights come back by year-end 2026 and will likely be resold for a $2/share windfall in early 2027.
• GXO Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on GXO Logistics to $70 from $65 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Coming off its callback, the firm is raising estimates. While Wells remains constructive in 2026, the more compelling story is earnings acceleration into 2027. Organic growth remains solid, and revitalized focus on margin expansion offers incremental upside, the firm adds.
• R Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Ryder to $236 from $210 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes Ryder's 2026 EPS guidance calling for 4%-12% growth year-over-year is conservative as it incorporates just 5c cyclical tailwind at the high-end. This likely results in a beat-and-raise story in 2026 and beyond, particularly as $250M-plus of rental demand and used-vehicle sales is realized, Wells adds.
• SFM Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly lowered the firm's price target on Sprouts Farmers Market to $110 from $135 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says set-up into the print looks mixed. Q4 results will likely be in-line, but Wells expects a below Street FY26 guide with soft first half of the year same-store sales lingering. While near-term outlook is tough, the firm still sees the underpinnings of a second half of the year recovery.
• U Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Unity to $38 from $54 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Unity's Q4 EPS and Q1 guide were impacted by a deterioration in Ironsource and greater-than-expected Create seasonality. While disappointing, it doesn't change Wells' core thesis on runtime data driving an improvement in Unity Ad Network share.
• WVE Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Wave Life Sciences to $27 from $29 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Ahead of multiple WVE-007 catalysts, the firm took a deep dive into INHBE, and came away expecting lean mass changes to plateau, and for further fat loss to drive weight loss. Lots to learn about dose, but Wells sees a path to a compelling profile.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: ACGL ACM AMKR BRX CHGG CINF CMCO CRBG DAC GTM ICHR KRC MEDP MTW NTB ON OPEN PAL PFG PFLT PNNT SSD SVM UDR UPWK UTL UVV VNO

• Cantor 2026 Annual Healthcare Ski Summit, 2/9-2/12, in Park City, UT
• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• UBS Financial Services Conference, 2/9-2/11, in Florida

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales M/M for December
• 8:30 AM ET                   Retail Sales – Less Autos M/M for December
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Business Inventories M/M for November
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ADC AEIS AIG AIZ AKR ALAB ANGI ARI BL DEI DIOD EPM EW EXEL F FRSH GILD GNSS GXO HIW HNGE HOOD IVT JHX KVYO LSCC LYFT MAT MIR MNTN NET NSP NTST OI PEGA RPD RRR TDC UFCS UPST WELL WPC ZG

• Cantor 2026 Annual Healthcare Ski Summit, 2/9-2/12, in Park City, UT
• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• UBS Financial Services Conference, 2/9-2/11, in Florida
• China PPI/CPI for January

• 8:30 AM ET                 Nonfarm Payrolls for January
• 8:30 AM ET                 Private Payrolls for January
• 8:30 AM ET                 Manufacturing Payrolls for January
• 8:30 AM ET                 Unemployment Rate for January
• 8:30 AM ET                 Average Hourly Earnings M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes
• 2:00 PM ET                    Federal budget for January

• Earnings After the Close: AEE ALB AM AMCX APP AR ATEX CFLT CGNX CPA CRK CSCO CW CXT CXW DAR DDI EPRT EQIX FAF FCPT FSLY GFL GTY HUBS IFF INSP LEG MFC MGM MSA MSI NBIX NBR NE NEU NEW OM PAYC PDM PDS PLMR PPC PRCH PRI QDEL QS QTWO ROL RWT RYN SAFE SCI STAG TYL WCN WFG WTS

• Cantor 2026 Annual Healthcare Ski Summit, 2/9-2/12, in Park City, UT

• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• Stifel Transportation & Logistics Conference, 2/11-2/12 in Miami, FL
• TD Cowen 47th Annual Aerospace & Defense Conference, 2/11-2/12, in Arlington VA
• UBS Financial Services Conference, 2/9-2/11, in Florida

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Existing Home Sales M/M for January
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: ABNB AEM AIP AMAT ANET BAP BFAM BIO BLX BROS CAE CART COHU COIN CPS CRSR CTRE DKNG DXCM ES EXPE FBIN FLO FORR FROG FRT HASI HCC HR HTGC IR KNSL LGCY MHK MORN NUS PACB PCOR PDFS PINS PSA RIVN ROKU RYAN SBRA SPSC TOST TRUP TSLX TWLO TXG VRTX WYNN YELP

• Oppenheimer Healthcare 2026 Winter CEO & Investor Summit, 2/9-2/12
• Stifel Transportation & Logistics Conference, 2/11-2/12 in Miami, FL
• TD Cowen 47th Annual Aerospace & Defense Conference, 2/11-2/12, in Arlington VA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline Y/Y for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI – Ex: Food & Energy M/M for January
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core CPI – Ex: Food & Energy Y/Y for January
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data