Early Look

Thursday, July 30, 2026

After closing at the lows on Wednesday following the FOMC meeting results, where rates stayed on hold (as was mostly expected) and the Fed said 2% remains their inflation target, U.S. futures are looking at an early bounce as Nasdaq futures rise 1%. Yields surged after the Fed Chair Warsh stopped talking, and oil stayed higher prompting a swift decline for U.S. stocks. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPX) posted a 130-pt swing over the span of 1 hour! More fireworks were after the close as Dow component MSFT reported better results as revs rose 18% to $90B, and adjusted EPS of $4.74 topped estimates, while Azure revenue grew 43% topping $100B for the first time in revs, and Intelligent Cloud sales exceeded expectations, sending shares higher by 8%. Meanwhile Meta Platforms' (META) shares tumbled after results missed and said free cash flow (FCF) fell to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2022 as the company ramped up spending on its artificial intelligence ambitions. Free cash flow dropped to $784M in Q2 vs. $8.5B in the prior year quarter), as shares fell over 9%. Other winners from earnings last night included SBUX, CMG, FTNT, FORM, GKOS, BOOM and LRCX. Other decliners included ALGN, ARM, CVNA, FICO, QCOM, TRDOC and TREE.

Treasury yields are back on the move as the 10-year rises 2 bps to 4.70%, the 30-year up 3 bps to 5.23% and the 2 yr unchanged at 4.27%. Yesterday was a roller coaster ride for bond markets after the FOMC meeting as the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds up 9.84 basis points at 5.193% after hitting 5.213%, highest level since July 2007 (now higher), the 2yr yield dropped -10bps to 4.22% then closed just -1bp on the day at 4.27% while the 10yr rose 7bps to 4.68%. Crude oil prices snapped a three-day losing streak in emphatic fashion on Wednesday, Brent crude closing up 6.7% around $90.70/bbl, WTI +7% to $84.60/bbl.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 433 points to 61,867, the Shanghai Index fell -23 points to 3,804, and the Hang Seng Index rose 50 points to 25,858. In Europe, the German DAX is down -41 points to 25,418, while the FTSE 100 is up 12 points to 10,921. Today attention turns back to data as GDP, weekly jobless claims and core PCE inflation readings are all expected at 8:30 am et followed by Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) earnings this evening along with a ton of other names. Later this morning the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to keep interest rates on hold.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1,152.46 points, or 2.18%, to 51,594.86
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -433.97 points, or 1.74%, to 24,442.94
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -47.49 points, or 1.61% to 2,906.32

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.798M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2…est. 2.1%
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption for Q2…prior +0.5%
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q2…est. +3.9%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index (headline) for Q2 M/M…est.
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index for Q2 M/M…est. +3.5%
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Income M/M for June…est. +0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for June…prior +0.3%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index headline M/M for June…est. (-0.1%) – prior +0.4%
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index headline Y/Y for June…est. +3.7% (prior +4.1%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index (core) M/M for June…est. +0.2% (prior +0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index (core) Y/Y for June…est. +3.3% (prior +3.4%)
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAPL ACCO ADC AEE AJG AMH AMZN ASUR ATR AX AXTI BFAM BJRI BWIN CDNA CERS CNO COHU COIN COLM CPT CSTL CTVA CUBE CUZ DLB DRH DXC DXCM EGO EIX EMN ERIE ES EXPO FHI FLGT FND FORR FSLR GDDY GH GLPI GSIT HR HUN ILMN INGM IR IVR KWR LNT LOPE LPLA LYV MHK MMSI MPWR MSA MSTR MTD MTX MTZ NBIX NXT OCFC OLED OLN PBA PTCT RBLX RDDT RIVN RYAN SAFE SNDR SONY SPSC SPXC SYK TBKK TEM VCYT WU WY

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for July

• Japanese PM Takaichi announced a plan to lower the consumption tax rate on food products to 1% from April 2027.

• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q2 adj EPS $0.33 vs. est. $0.32; Q2 revs rose 9.3% y/y to $3.34B vs. est. $3.3B; Q2 comp sales rose 2.2%, consisting of a 1.2% increase in average check and a 1% increase in transactions; raises FY26 comparable restaurant sales growth to low single digits vs. prior view "about flat" guides FY26 comparable restaurant sales growth in the low single digit range.
• Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q2 adj EPS $3.45 vs. est. $3.42; Q2 revs rose 5% y/y to $980M vs. est. $978.1M; Q2 Adjusted EBITDA and net income hit all-time highs, with net income up 11% y/y; said record Kentucky Derby Week drove higher broadcast, ticketing, sponsorship and wagering revenues; explores sale of nine regional gaming properties.
• Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) 43.48M share IPO priced at $23.00 which was the midpoint of $21.00-$25.00 target range.
• O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q2 EPS $0.86 in line with consensus as sales were $4.89B vs. est. $4.86B; raising full-Yr 2026 comparable store sales guidance to a range of 4%-6%; sees FY capex $1.3B-$1/4B and FCF $1.8B-$2.1B.
• Rush Street (RSI) Q2 adj. EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.09, revenue $393.8Mm vs. est. $367.7Mm, adj. EBITDA $64.6Mm vs est $59.54Mm; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $1.560B–$1.600B vs. est. $1.518B.
• Service Corp (SCI) Q2 adj. EPS $0.90 vs. est. $0.88, revenue $1.103B vs. est. $1.081B, op Income $231.6Mm vs est $226.03MM; FY26 adj EPS guidance narrowed to $4.10–$4.30 vs. est. $4.13.
• Sprout Farmers (SFM) Q2 EPS $1.37 vs. est. $1.34, revenue $2.326B vs. est. $2.320B, operating Income $174.2Mm vs est $170.42Mm, gross profit $900.6Mm; Q3 guidance calls for EPS $1.20–$1.24 vs est $1.27 and comparable store sales of -0.5% to 1.5%, while FY26 guidance calls for EPS $5.32–$5.40 vs est $5.55, sales growth 5.5%–6.5% vs est +7.69%, comparable sales -0.5% to 0.5%, and 42 net new stores; the 53rd week is expected to add about $200Mm in sales.
• Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 adj. EPS $0.85 vs. est. $0.66, revenue $9.3B vs. est. $9.157B, adj. operating margin 14.4%; North America comparable store sales +8.1%, U.S. comparable store sales +7.9%, international comparable store sales +5.7%, and global comparable store sales +7.9%; FY26 adj. EPS guided to $2.55–$2.65 vs. est. $2.40, FY26 Consolidated net revenues guided flat to slightly up YoY vs est +1.66%, FY26 global comparable sales growth guided to 6%, U.S. comparable sales guided to slightly greater than 6%, and FY26 non-GAAP Consolidated operating margin guided >11.0%.
• Vici Properties (VICI) Q2 AFFO/share $0.62 vs. est. $0.67; revenue $1.10B vs. est. $1.04B, beat by about $60Mm; dividend $0.45/share; FY26 adjusted FFO guided to $2.675B–$2.695B.

• T1 Energy (TE) files to sell $120M of convertible senior notes due 2031
• ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and other oil companies have been fighting over the few attractive drilling spots in Venezuela, but some of the discussions with the country's leaders have hit an impasse,, the WSJ reported

• Robinhood (HOOD) Q2 EPS $0.62 vs. est. $0.43; Q2 revs $1.31B vs. est. $1.28B; Q2 adj Ebitda $741M vs. est. $613.7M; Q2 average revenue per user increased 24% to $187; lowers FY26 operating expenses view to $2.68B-$2.78B from $2.7B-$2.83B; transaction-based revenue rose about 44% to $776M, primarily driven by event contracts revenue of $156M.

• Cigna (CI) Q2 adj EPS $7.78 vs. est.$7.60; Q2 revs $71.67B vs. rest. $70.18B; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to at least $30.45 from at least $30.35(est. $30.41).
• Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) Q2 EPS $0.36 vs. est. $0.02; revenue $256.147Mm vs. est. $221.1Mm, +32% YoY; 2026 revenue outlook raised to $1.1B–$1.2B vs. est $1.008B.
• Glaukos (GKOS) adj. EPS $(0.14) vs. est. $(0.22), revenue $185.6Mm vs. est. $151.0Mm, adj. gross margin 85%; FY26 sales guidance raised to $680Mm–$700Mm vs. est. $629.98Mm.
• Teladoc (TDOC) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.21) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q2 revs $606.9M vs. est. $616.3M; guides Q3 revs $569M-$609M below the consensus $629.2M; also guides year EPS loss greater than expected and revs $2.362B-$2.447B, consensus $2.51B.

• FMC Corp. (FMC) Q2 adj EPS $0.26 vs. est. $0.22; Q2 revs $867M vs. est. $895.1M; guides 4Q adj EPS of $1.09-1.33, above est $0.98 but sees Q3 EPS $0.05-0.13, missing est. $0.60; sees FY outlook for adj EPS of $1.19-1.49, below consensus of $1.63.
•  FTAI Aviation (FTAI) Q2 EPS $1.13 vs. est. $1.38, miss by $0.25; revenue $953.1Mm vs est $897.78Mm; adj. EBITDA $291.4Mm vs. est. $330.6Mm; dividend increased to $0.50.
• Hexcel Corp. (HXL) Q2 adj EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.58; Q2 revs $529.3M vs. est. $528.81M; Q2 Sales growth was particularly strong for both the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 programs; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $2.30-$2.40 from $2.10-$2.30 (est. $2.28) and boosts FY26 revenue view to $2.025B-$2.125B from $2.0B-$2.1B (est. $2.08B).
• L3 Harris (LHX) Q2 adj. EPS $3.35 vs. est. $2.80, revenue $5.90B vs. est. $5.81B, operating Income $654Mm vs est $873.72Mm, orders $7.30B, book-to-bill 1.2x, backlog a record $42B; FY26 revenue guided $23.2B–$23.7B vs. est. $23.579B and FY26 EPS guided $11.8–$12.0 vs est $11.61.
• Modine Manufacturing (MOD) Q1 adj. EPS $1.53 vs. est. $1.29, revenue $874.1Mm vs. est. $877.6Mm, adj. EBITDA $106.5Mm vs. est. $121.6Mm; gross profit $182Mm; operating Income $74.8Mm; guides FY27 adj. EBITDA $650Mm–$680Mm vs. est. $664.8Mm.
• Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) raises its full-year adjusted profit and sales forecast on strong demand for nuclear, refrigerants and electronic materials, as well as pricing actions; sees 2026 adj. EPS $2.75-$2.95, compared with prior view of $2.45-$2.75.
• Woodward Inc. (WWD) Q3 adj. EPS $2.52 vs. est. $2.50; sales $1.10B vs. est. $1.11B, +21% YoY; adj. EBIT $217M vs est $195.84Mm; FY26 outlook raised to adj. EPS $9.30–$9.50 vs est $9.42 and sales growth 19%–21% vs est +21.88%.

• Meta Inc. (META) shares fall on miss/capex; Q2 EPS $6.18 misses consensus $7.22 on revs $60.8B vs. est. $60.29B; narrows FY capex to $130B-$145Bfrom prior $125B-$145B; sees Q3 revenue $61B-$64B vs. Est. $63.24B; expect tax rate for the remaining quarters of 2026 to be between 15-17%, an increase from our prior outlook of 13-16%; Q2 free cash flow of $784M, down from $8.55B y/y.
• Arm Holdings (ARM) Q1 EPS $0.45 vs. est. $0.40; Q1 revs rose 22% y/y to $1.29B vs. est. $1.27B; said demand for its chip designs continued to grow across artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers; Q1 Royalty revenue rose 22% to $715M; sees Q2 EPS $0.41-$0.51 vs. est. $0.44 and revs $1.375B-$1.385B above consensus $1.34B.
• Axt, Inc. (AXTI) announces long-term supplier agreement with Lumentum (LITE); Lumentum to pay Axt $43.50M initial deposit and $43.50M second deposit in 2028.
• Equinix (EQIX) Q2 AFFO/shr $11.78 vs est $11.26, adj EBITDA $1.396B vs est $1.352B on revs $2.625B vs est $2.579B; sees Q3 adj EBITDA $1.275-1.315B vs est $1.305, sees FY AFFO/shr $42.69-43.29 vs est $42.35 and adj EBITDA $5.21-5.27B vs est $5.19B.
• Five9, Inc. (FIVN) will replace Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, August 3. CrossCountry Mortgage LLC is acquiring Two Harbors Investment Corp. in a deal expected to close soon, pending final closing conditions.
• Fortinet (FTNT) Q2 EPS $0.90 vs. est. $0.75; Q2 revs rose 26% y/y to $2.05B vs. est. $1.89B; guides Q3 revs $2.01B-$2.1B vs. est. $1.95B and year revs $8.02B-$81.8B vs. est. $7.81B; guides FY Billings in the range of $9.35B to $9.55B
• Impinj (PI) Q2 EPS $0.86 vs. est. $0.80; Q2 revs $108.4M vs. est. $104.6M; sees Q3 EPS $0.59-$0.63 vs. est. $0.50 and revs $105.5M-$108.5Mvs. est. $98.7M; reported Q2 revenue and adjusted EPS at new quarterly highs, citing strong execution.
• Lam Research (LRCX) Q4 adj. EPS $1.82 vs. est. $1.68; revenue $6.722B vs. est. $6.665B; Q1 guidance calls for adj. EPS $2.00–$2.30 vs est $1.83 and revenue $7.7B–$8.5B vs est $7.093B.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Q3 adj. EPS $2.21 vs. est. $2.23, -1% YoY; rev. $9.95B vs. est. $9.67B, +?% YoY; Q4 guidance adj. EPS $2.05–$2.25 vs. est. $2.36, rev. $9.7B–$10.5B vs. est. $10.02B; management said Apple product revenue step-down should accelerate starting in Q4, and non-handset revenue growth including data center is expected to accelerate from 24% in FY26 to >60% in FY27.
• Tenable (TENB) Q2 adj. EPS $0.51 vs. est. $0.47, revenue $268.5Mm vs. est. $264.8Mm; FY26 revenue guided $1.075B–$1.081B vs est $1.074B and FY26 adj. EPS guided $1.95–$2.00 vs est $1.96, while Q3 guidance is adj. EPS $0.49–$0.52 vs est $0.49 and revenue $270.0Mm–$273.0Mm vs est $269.87Mm

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, July 30, 2026

After closing on the lows in dramatic fashion on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 swinging 140 points from highs post FOMC meeting to end on lows after Warsh press conference, major averages are rebounding nicely to start the day, but still nowhere near yesterday highs. Rotation again into the volatile semiconductors/AI/data center sector early behind MSFT commentary in addition to strong earnings/guidance from power names like PWR are boosting data center plays that crumbled in recent days. The casualty today is software (sans MSFT after results which is +14%) as the IGV falls and investors rotate back into the early winners or 2026. Also of interest in the AI sector, David Faber on CNBC noted Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) “exited all of their public investments" [entire stock book] in one enormous block trade "both the longs and the short book" all sold to a single fund (which was predominantly in many names in the AI sector). Inflation data and weaker GDP data being overshadowed by MSFT results/impact on AI space.

The hyperscalers are seeing contrasting fortunes, with Microsoft rallying after earnings suggested that its AI investments are starting to generate returns. Azure cloud revenue grew a better-than-expected 43% year-on-year, while its capital expenditures were lower than expected.  On the flip side, Meta Platforms fell as it gave a disappointing quarterly revenue forecast and reported the lowest free cash flow in years — a sign of ballooning expenses for AI bets. Worth watching for tech is possibly early signs of unwind of “carry trade” as the Dollar index (DXY) -0.9% under 100 now as the Japanese Yen strengthens further, dropping below 159 vs. the Dollar for a 2.9% move (2 month lows). Japanese intervention widely speculated given the Yen at 40-year lows this week; the Euro also rising back above 1.15 vs. the buck. The Bank of England kept its key rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three policymakers backing a hike and none supporting a cut.

Treasury yields were back on the move early as the 10-year rose 2 bps to 4.70% (now down), the 30 bps up 3 bps to 5.23% and the 2 yr unchanged at 4.27%. Yesterday was a roller coaster ride for bond markets after the FOMC meeting as the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds up 9.84 basis points at 5.193% after hitting 5.213%, highest level since July 2007 (now higher), the 2yr yield dropped -10bps to 4.22% then closed just -1bp on the day at 4.27% while the 10yr rose 7bps to 4.68%. Crude oil prices snapped a three-day losing streak in emphatic fashion on Wednesday, Brent crude closing up 6.7% around $90.70/bbl, WTI +7% to $84.60/bbl.

On Wednesday, as expected, the FOMC held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with three hawkish dissents to this decision. Similarly, as expected, there were no substantial changes to the meeting statement language. In the press conference, Chair Warsh outlined areas of debate amongst meeting participants, most notably the extent to which shocks were impacting output, employment, and prices. That said, he did not provide much detail around those discussions, presumably leaving that for the minutes.

• U.S. Q2 GDP (advance) rose a lighter +1.5% Q/Q annual rate vs. +2.3% consensus and +2.1% in Q1, as Consumer spending surged at a 3.2% rate after abruptly slowing to a 0.5% growth pace in Q1.
• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 197,000 from 188,000 last week and vs. consensus 200,000; the 4-weel moving average fell to 202,750 from 207,750 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.782M from 1.789M prior week (est. 1.798M); US Insured Unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.2%.

• In Restaurants: SBUX delivered strong Q3 results and raised FY26 guidance as the "Back to Starbucks" turnaround gains traction; Q3 EPS of $0.85 beat consensus by $0.20 with ~$0.05 from fundamentals and ~$0.15 from tariff/tax favorability and raised FY26 EPS guidance to $2.55-2.65. CMG shares rose after results as same-store sales of +2.2% came in above consensus of +1.4%; and include positive traffic and raised its FY2026e SSS expectations to be up LSD% (from about flat previously); YUM Q2 Adj EPS $1.62 tops est. $1.57 but revs $9.17B miss est. $9.19B with Taco Bell Comp Sales +7% (+6.57%), Restaurant Margin 16.3% (est 17%), Worldwide Comp Sales +3%, (est +2.89%) and Pizza Hut Comp Sales -1% (est -0.46%); Jersey Mike’s (JMKE) 43.48M share IPO priced at $23.00 which was the midpoint of $21.00-$25.00 target range.
• Auto sector: RACE Q2 Adj. EPS: $3.05  tops est: $2.83 and revs rose 11% y/y to $2.253B vs est. $2.140B while FY26 guidance also raised above the street on both EPS and revenue; SAH posted Q2 profit and notched higher revenue rising 7.6% to $3.93B vs. est. $3.78B, driven by improving performance across all business units. CVNA shares fell as Q2 results beat top/bottom line, but guidance disappoints as sees FY adj. EBITDA guided $2.7B–$3.0B vs. est. $2.97B, and management sees sequentially higher retail units in Q3. ORLY Q2 EPS $0.86 in line with consensus as sales were $4.89B vs. est. $4.86B; raising full-Yr 2026 comparable store sales guidance to a range of 4%-6%
• Footwear sector: ADDYY shares tumbled as qtr operating profit in the April to June period rose by 5% to €574M but came in below an analyst consensus of €623M, weighed down by marketing spend; CROX shares fall as Q2 adj EPS $4.23 misses the $4.34 estimate on lower margins of 25.1%, lower than last year's 26.9% and guided Q3 revs to be flat compared with a year ago, while adjusted EPS expected to be $3.20 to $3.30 (below estimates of rev growth +2.4% and EPS $3.53); BOOT delivered strong Q1 results, with momentum across new stores and core categories and said remains confident in its outlook for the balance of the year.

• FTNT +5%; reported strong Q2 results across all metrics and significantly raised 2026 guidance with Q3 revenue $2.01B-$2.1B, consensus $1.95B and FY26 revenue $8.02B-$8.18B, consensus $7.81B; product revenue accelerated again to 52% Y/y.
• LRCX +21%; posted strong results & guide, increased its WFE outlook to the low 150B range; said Q4 gross margins, up >200bps to 52.0%, said ‘27 would be another strong growth year following what will be an excellent 2026; guided Q2 to 20% sequential growth.
• MKTX +30%; as ICE agreed to acquire MKTX in a deal valued at $5.7B to expand fixed-income offerings, where ICE will buy all outstanding shares of the trading platform for $167 each in cash, the exchange operator said, which is a 33% premium to its previous closing price
• MSFT +15%; reported better results as revs rose 18% to $90B, and adjusted EPS of $4.74 topped estimates, while Azure revenue grew 43% topping $100B for the first time in revs, and Intelligent Cloud sales exceeded expectations, sending shares higher by 8%.
• PWR +16%; with EPS $4.24 above est. $3.30 and revs $9.6B vs. est. $8.6B and adj EBITDA $1.1B vs. est. $875M; raises 2026 revenue outlook to $39.3B-$39.7B saying growth was supported by increased investment from customers in Electric Grid, power Generation and mission-critical infrastructure

• CAPR -52%; after an FDA panel of experts voted against the effectiveness data of its cell therapy for a heart condition related to Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) in a 9 to 3 vote, aligning with concerns of the FDA's staff that the company had not provided sufficient evidence of the therapy's effectiveness, while questioning changes to key analyses after its late-stage study was completed.
• CVNA -10%; shares fell as Q2 results beat top/bottom line, but guidance disappoints as sees FY adj. EBITDA guided $2.7B–$3.0B vs. est. $2.97B, and management sees sequentially higher retail units in Q3.
• FICO -14%; shares fell as Q3 revenue and adjusted operating income modestly missed expectations, driven by Software softness, while posted sequential decline in mortgage score revenues, as rapid VS4 share gains in conforming mortgages at UWM and Rocket are weighing on the stock.
• META -9%; shares tumbled after results missed and said free cash flow (FCF) fell to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2022 as the company ramped up spending on its artificial intelligence ambitions. Free cash flow dropped to $784M in Q2 vs. $8.5B in the prior year quarter
• MO -7%; shares fell in tobacco as Q2 revenue was flat y/y, and adjusted EPS missed analyst expectations ($1.48 vs. est. $1.50) and narrowed full-year adjusted EPS guidance FY26 adjusted EPS view to $5.61-$5.72 from $5.56-$5.72 and raised lower end of range
• TDOC -27%; shares fell as its BetterHelp continues to weigh on results as the model transitions from cash to insurance; Q2 revs $606.9M miss est. $616.3M; guides Q3 revs $569M-$609M below the consensus $629.2M; also guides year EPS loss greater than expected.
• TREE -22%; after lowering ’26E EBITDA by 5% to $145–152M on SMB softness from higher energy-prices/interest-rates, offset by Insurance segment strength. Outlook assumes SMB grows modestly from 2Q with FY "slightly-down to flat," with 2H Insurance VMM growing MSD-HSD.

Closing Recap

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Stocks may have closed on the lows Wednesday…but finished around the highs on Thursday! U.S. stocks rebounded after tumbling Wednesday, with the biggest gains coming in the recently beaten up tech sector gaining the most (XLK +5.4%, QQQ +3.3%, SOX +8%), as key economic data showed slightly cooler core inflation (PCE) alongside slower growth (as GDP falls to 1.5% from 2.1%). MSFT earnings and commentary on Azure, capex and cloud growth helped spur on the AI trade (semis, data centers) while META missed earnings and burned through free cash flow in its race in AI. A couple other very notable items included Treasury yields pushing higher initially to fresh 52-week highs (30-yr hit highest yield since 2007), while the US dollar fell to 2-month lows vs the  Japanese yen, hitting a low of 158 (more than 3% move) before paring gains. Japanese intervention widely speculated given the Yen at 40-year lows this week. Another big night of earnings tonight with AAPL and AMZN on deck, followed by energy giants CVX, COM tomorrow morning.

What was likely a huge part to today’s semi, AI, data center and power rebound (outside of the obvious better MSFT results/commentary and earnings in power space like PWR) was the story that Situational Awareness, a fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner “exited all of their public investments" [entire stock book] in one enormous block trade "both the longs and the short book" all sold to a single fund (which was predominantly in many names in the AI sector), CNBC avid Faber reported early. CNBC also reported that the firm sold a sizeable stake in AI startup Anthropic, though the identity of the buyer has not been disclosed. The WSJ later reported it was Citadel that bought Situational Awareness's stock portfolio after big losses in Ai.

Technology (+5.49%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.85%) and Industrials (+0.82%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Real Estate (-1.52%), Consumer Staples (-2.22%) and Communications (-2.89%) paced the underperformers with 5 sectors gaining versus 6 declining. The semis came in down nearly 30% this month but pared losses to -20% MTD given todays bounce, and the QQQ just hit the -10% correction threshold yesterday and bounced over 3.4% today in reaction. @Bluekurtic noted on X, “Bears finally manifested a 6 for 6 for the Nasdaq 100. Only 13 other times in its history, was $NDX down for 6 straight days with a 6%+ loss. But good and bad days often cluster together. 3 days later, NDX was higher in 11 of those cases. $QQQ”

• U.S. Q2 GDP (advance) rose a lighter +1.5% Q/Q annual rate vs. +2.3% consensus and +2.1% in Q1, as Consumer spending surged at a 3.2% rate after abruptly slowing to a 0.5% growth pace in Q1.
• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 197,000 from 188,000 last week and vs. consensus 200,000; the 4-weel moving average fell to 202,750 from 207,750 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.782M from 1.789M prior week (est. 1.798M); US Insured Unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.2%.
• The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75% as expected in a 6-3 vote and the BOE says stands ready to act if necessary. UK inflation peaks at 3.2% according to projections by the Bank. Greene, Mann, and Pill all voted for 25bps hike.

• December gold rises +$63.60/oz, or +1.55%, to settle at $4,160.60 an ounce and September silver rises +0.93/oz, or +1.60%, to settle at $59.02 an ounce as precious metals benefit from a pullback in the dollar, falling to 2-month lows against the Japanese yen in volatile trading. No rate hike news yesterday by the Fed also giving some momentum to metals for the time being.
• The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) hit new lows late day in a slow steady decline all night/day -14.67% at 17.64 down from overnight highs 20.08 as Spuz making new highs.

• Treasury yields were back on the move early as the 10-year rose 2 bps to 4.70% (before falling -2bps to 4.66%, the 30 bps was up 1 bps to 5.21% (hit 5.23% earlier) and the 2 yr fell -5bps to 4.23%. Yesterday was a roller coaster ride for bond markets after the FOMC meeting as the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds up 9.84 basis points at 5.193% after hitting 5.213%, highest level since July 2007, the 2yr yield dropped -10bps to 4.22% then closed just -1bp on the day at 4.27% while the 10yr rose 7bps to 4.68%.

• In Restaurants: SBUX delivered strong Q3 results and raised FY26 guidance with Q3 EPS of $0.85 beat consensus by $0.20 with ~$0.05 from fundamentals and ~$0.15 from tariff/tax favorability and raised FY26 EPS guidance to $2.55-2.65. CMG shares rose after results as same-store sales of +2.2% came in above consensus of +1.4%; and include positive traffic and raised its FY2026e SSS expectations to be up LSD% (from about flat previously); YUM Q2 Adj EPS $1.62 tops est. $1.57 but revs $9.17B miss est. $9.19B with Taco Bell Comp Sales +7% (+6.57%), Restaurant Margin 16.3% (est 17%), Worldwide Comp Sales +3%, (est +2.89%) and Pizza Hut Comp Sales -1% (est -0.46%); Jersey Mike’s (JMKE) 43.48M share IPO priced at $23.00 which was the midpoint of $21.00-$25.00 target range (opened at $21).
• Food & Beverages: SFM reported largely in-line Q2 results as EPS of $1.37 was modestly ahead of a Street figure of $1.34 driven by stronger gross margins. Comps decreased 1.0% in line with a consensus estimate of -1.0%; BUD reported Q2 revenue of $16.66B with normalized EBITDA of $5.94B, a 35.6% margin, and adjusted EPS of $1.21 as gross profit reached $9.58B on a 57.5% gross margin; HSY beat Q2 estimates with adjusted EPS of $1.90 versus the $1.42 consensus on revenue of $2.79B against a $2.63B estimate and raised full-year guidance to 4.5–5% sales growth and 32.5–35% adjusted EPS growth. PPC sales were a touch below expectations on softer pricing, while profits were a significant miss due to litigation charges and weaker commodity fundamentals.
• Consumer Products: MO shares fell in tobacco as Q2 revenue was flat y/y, and adjusted EPS missed analyst expectations ($1.48 vs. est. $1.50) and narrowed full-year adjusted EPS guidance FY26 adjusted EPS view to $5.61-$5.72 from $5.56-$5.72 and raised lower end of range; also raised its 2026 capital expenditures of $375M-$450M from prior $300M-$375M

• Cruise sector: NCLH posted Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.48 versus the $0.39 estimate on revenue of $2.64B but cut its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $1.50 against the $1.67 consensus, while maintaining full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.50B.
• Ride Hailing: AMZN owned robotaxi service Zoox has been given the green light from federal regulators to begin charging customers for ride. Until now, Zoox has been offering free rides in Las Vegas and San Francisco with its specialized AV. So far, more than half a million passengers have tested it out.
• Casino & Gaming: RSI raised its full-year profitability outlook to $245–265M (+59–72%-y/y; $230–250M, previously) vs. Street's $246M estimate, on accelerating NA iGaming share gains (MAUs +64% vs. 1Q's 62%) and strong LATAM execution during World Cup; LVS was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus citing a weak Chinese economy and potential pressure on VIP gaming suggesting ongoing challenges for the company, also stating that in Singapore, the uncertain pace of recovery from Q2 weakness. CHDN Q2 adj EPS $3.45 vs. est. $3.42; Q2 revs rose 5% y/y to $980M vs. est. $978.1M; Q2 Adjusted EBITDA and net income hit all-time highs, with net income up 11% y/y. Britain's IG Group said it has agreed to acquire U.S. daily fantasy sports and prediction markets operator Underdog for up to $1.3 billion.
• Auto sector: RACE Q2 Adj. EPS: $3.05  tops est: $2.83 and revs rose 11% y/y to $2.253B vs est. $2.140B while FY26 guidance also raised above the street on both EPS and revenue; SAH posted Q2 profit and notched higher revenue rising 7.6% to $3.93B vs. est. $3.78B, driven by improving performance across all business units. CVNA shares fell as Q2 results beat top/bottom line, but guidance disappoints as sees FY adj. EBITDA guided $2.7B–$3.0B vs. est. $2.97B, and management sees sequentially higher retail units in Q3. ORLY Q2 EPS $0.86 in line with consensus as sales were $4.89B vs. est. $4.86B; raising full-Yr 2026 comparable store sales guidance to a range of 4%-6%; LXQ shares fell after the distributor of vehicle-repair parts cut its fiscal 2026 outlook and posted lower second-quarter revenue and profit.

• Private Equity: OWL posted a higher Q2 profit driven by its fee-related earnings and growth in assets under management to $319B, up 12% y/y; adj EPS beat narrowly while new capital commitments of $7.8B were close to half the $13.9B it raised y/y; new money from private wealth was $1.7B versus $4.4B in the year-ago quarter.

• Lending sector: TREE shares fell after lowering ’26E EBITDA by 5% to $145–152M on SMB softness from higher energy-prices/interest-rates, offset by Insurance segment strength. Outlook assumes SMB grows modestly from 2Q with FY "slightly-down to flat," with 2H Insurance VMM growing MSD-HSD.
• FinTech sector: FISV shares active after Reuters reported Activist investor Jana Partners is urging Fiserv to review its entire portfolio, pursue further asset sales and refresh its board. Jana supports the company’s reported consideration of selling its debit network assets.

• BNL reported 2Q AFFO that was in line with cons. ($0.39), though increased its FY26 AFFO by 0.65% to $1.55-$1.57 (in line with cons.), which was driven by portfolio performance and increased investment guidance by 24.4% to $600M-$800M.
• EQIX raised its '26 guidance and raised its LT '27-'29 guidance that is equal parts great and scary. While the LT growth outlook was raised to 10-13% (from 7-10%) and AFFO growth to 9-12% (from 5-9%) to get there, EQIX annual capex guidance is now $5B $7B (from $3B-$4B).
• ESS 2Q FFO beat consensus by 1%. Management increased ’26 FFO guidance by 1.3% at the midpoint, modestly above consensus. SS Rev and SSNOI growth guidance increased 40 bps and 70 bps, respectively, implying stable top-line growth in 2H26
• MAA 2Q cFFO was in line with consensus, and management affirmed ’26 FFO guidance. However, SS Rev guidance was lowered by 45 bps at the midpoint to +10 bps, largely offset by lower expense growth (-90 bps).
• PSA reported a $0.08 Core FFO miss vs. consensus (-1.9%), though mgmt raised FY26 Core FFO guidance by 1.4% at the midpoint. The quarter was active, with PSA closing the ~$10.5B NSA acquisition, announcing the PS Canada deal, and executing significant capital market activity.
• REG reported an in-line 2Q result (Core Operating Earnings beat by $0.01), while management raised FY26 NAREIT and COE guidance by $0.01 and $0.03, respectively
• VICI reported 2Q AFFO of $0.62, in line with consensus, and management raised FY26 guidance by $0.005 at the midpoint (+0.2%) to $2.45-$2.47 to reflect incremental investment and capital deployment in the quarter.
• VTR 2Q FFO modestly beat cons. ($0.01). Management increased ‘26 FFO guidance by 0.5% at the midpoint (in line with cons.) due to a $1.5B increase to investment guidance; SHOP SSNOI growth guidance of 16% y/y was affirmed. SHOP occupancy increased 300 bps y/y.

• BAX rises as Q2 net sales above expectations ($2.96B vs $2.8B est) and mgmt raising FY organic sales growth guide to +2-3% vs flat previously. FY EPS guide $1.95-2.15 ex-items vs prior guidance $1.85-2.05. Revenue growth +3-4% y/y vs prior guidance flat to +1%.
• BMY raised its FY revenue view to about $49B-$50B, above prior $46B-$47.5B outlook after reporting better-than-expected Q2 2026 financials as the company’s cancer therapies in its growth portfolio delivered higher sales.
• CAPR shares plummet after an FDA panel of experts voted against the effectiveness data of its cell therapy for a heart condition related to Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) in a 9 to 3 vote, aligning with concerns of the FDA's staff that the company had not provided sufficient evidence of the therapy's effectiveness, while questioning changes to key analyses after its late-stage study was completed.
• REGN 2Q results were ahead of street with revenue of $4.29B (vs. $3.8B cons), with each product line ahead of street (ex-Eylea, which saw continued competition + shift to HD) and many hitting new all-time-high sales in the qtr (Dupi, Eylea HD, Libtayo).
• SNY reported Q2 revenue of EUR 11.597B versus the EUR 11.222B estimate, with free cash flow of EUR 2.670B, as CEO reaffirmed commitment to immunology, rare diseases, and vaccines while noting the strategic review of the late-stage pipeline remains ongoing.
• VKTX reported a beat on the bottom line, reporting a loss of $1.10 per share compared to estimates of a $1.35 per share loss and the consensus estimate of a $1.23 per share loss; guided for lower cash expenditure in 2027 but is actively expanding their workforce.

• Dental sector: ALGN reported strong aligner volume and revenues, but weaker than expected scanner sales weighed on the results.
• Managed Care: CI Q2 revs and EPS ahead, with MCR 84.5% (vs. 85% cons). Guidance marginally raised to at least $30.45 (vs. $30.35) with MCR range maintained, expecting slightly higher CI Healthcare EBIT.
• Healthcare technology: WAY top- and bottom-line beat driven mainly by better than expected subscription and a nice gross margin beat (97 bps) above consensus and adj. EBITDA was more than 4.5% above consensus; raised the bottom end of its FY26 revenue guidance and raised adj. EBITDA too.

• Transports mixed as oil continues to impact the sector. Trucking and LTL names weak (RXO, ODFL) after CHRW shares declined despite better top and bottom line results. Truist noted CHRW reiterated confidence in achieving the low end of its 2026 operating income framework despite freight demand remaining well below the assumptions embedded when those targets were established. Also, TDCowen noted CHRW beat Q2 estimates though NAST GM missed their estimate; also noted CHRW offered little clarity for investors on potential implications of the recent court ruling and the firm believes the company may reserve a claims charge and see significant pressure on Insurance in 2027
• Industrials: FLS adj. EPS of $0.95, ahead of our/consensus $0.85/0.86 estimates, with the beat driven by FPD margin outperformance, slightly offset by FCD margin (-90bps vs. our modeling, +40bps y/y); TT announced that it had beaten 2Q26 top/bottom line consensus estimates, and it raised FY26 guidance midpoints and guided 3Q26 EPS both above the Street while reporting record quarterly Americas bookings.
• Chemicals: FMC reported softer sales but slightly better adjusted profits - though still down mid-20% s YoY and lowered its 2026 guide, reflecting a more challenging environment. Management also reconfirmed that its strategic review is completed now focused on improving competitiveness.

• Space sector: RKLB signed another three-launch Electron deal with iQPS marking their third multi-launch agreement in less than a year. The latest booking brings iQPS to 18 total launches with the new missions beginning in late 2027.

• META shares tumbled after results missed and said free cash flow (FCF) fell to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2022 as the company ramped up spending on its artificial intelligence ambitions. Free cash flow dropped to $784M in Q2 vs. $8.5B in the prior year quarter

• Security Software: FTNT reported strong Q2 results across all metrics and significantly raised 2026 guidance with Q3 revenue $2.01B-$2.1B, consensus $1.95B and FY26 revenue $8.02B-$8.18B, consensus $7.81B; product revenue accelerated again to 52% Y/y as management noted the strength is broad-based across OT, Ai data Centers, Ai workloads and improving SASE execution.

• Semi equipment: LRCX posted strong results & guide, increased its WFE outlook to the low 150B range; said Q4 gross margins, up >200bps to 52.0%, said ‘27 would be another strong growth year following what will be an excellent 2026; guided Q2 to 20% sequential growth, with strength in NAND upgrades, DRAM increases, and further Foundry penetration. FORM shares benefit from earnings/guidance.
• QCOM posted mixed F3Q (Jun) results and F4Q (Sep) guidance as revs were better, while EPS was lower due to a miss on GM due to higher costs and a less favorable mix of premium tier APs. However, with DD% price increases, GMs are expected to normalize over the next few qtrs. Android has bottomed and is expected to grow DD% in F4Q, while iPhone 18 share.
• TSM and INTC are developing an advanced chip-packaging technology similar to what Intel already offers The Information reports citing two people with direct knowledge of the project, a sign that the world’s leading chip manufacturer is worried about competition from a distant rival. Chip packaging is the final Stage of chip production, where separate pieces of silicon are assembled into a single unit and wired together so they can work as one and Connect to the rest of a Computer.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, July 30, 2026

• CLH Barclays raised the firm's price target on Clean Harbors to $325 from $305 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares post the Q2 report. The company's "beat-and-raise" quarter highlights strength of both its units, with capital deployment momentum building across organic and inorganic investment opportunities, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GRMN Barclays analyst Tim Long raised the firm's price target on Garmin to $297 from $238 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company reported a quarter with all segments coming in better than expected with fitness again the standout, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• GNRC Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Generac to $278 from $285 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following its second hyperscaler contract. Generac will be tripling its data center capacity in the U.S. to $3.75B, which should be underpinned by $1.5B-$2B of hyperscaler demand and another $1B-$1.5B of non-hyperscaler contracts, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• META Barclays analyst Ross Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $780 from $830 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported another solid quarter and laid out a plan around many new AI products and services, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says each could potentially evolve into large business opportunities.
• MSFT Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Microsoft to $512 from $545 and keeps an Overweight rating on the sharee. The firm sees investors revisiting Microsoft shares post the Q4 report. The company is delivering better Azure and better Office growth, while also not surprising negatively on its capex outlook and free cash flow targets, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HOOD Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Robinhood to $105 from $122 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the Q2 report. The company's EBITDA came in well ahead of estimates, driven by expense savings with a more modest
• QCOM Barclays analyst Tom O'Malley lowered the firm's price target on Qualcomm to $180 from $245 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares following the earnings report. The company's September quarter guidance includes a data center miss with some near-term choppiness in handsets and margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Qualcomm's margin miss in September is the headline with continued cost pressures in smartphones. Barclays still sees a "tougher year" for the company's consumer exposed segments and says that even when factoring in the $5B of AI the stock "is uninteresting."

• MSFT Bernstein raised the firm's price target on Microsoft to $647 from $646 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes Microsoft delivered this quarter with Azure growth beating consensus, and guide for further Azure acceleration. While the stock has positively reacted 9% in the after-market, Bernstein believes that Microsoft is proving they are an AI winner with strong downside protection and further improvement ahead. Given the quality of the stock and low valuation, the firm thinks this is a stock investors should own.
• QCOM Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Qualcomm to $165 from $235 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares following a very messy quarter for the company. Cost increases and higher spending are significantly impacting margins, and while the company is trying to raise prices to compensate the forthcoming data center ramp seems likely to more than offset that pricing action, the firm says.

• META BofA analyst Justin Post lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $810 from $835 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees a favorable risk/reward with potential for upcoming product launches and capacity deals to raise 2027 revenue and EPS expectations, says the analyst, who is raising the firm's 2027 revenue forecast by 0.3% to $317B and lowering its EPS view by 1% to $34.73 following the company's Q2 report.

• CORT Canaccord analyst Edward Nash raised the firm's price target on Corcept Therapeutics to $161 from $150 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Corcept reported financial results and business updates for 2Q26 and upwardly revised the full-year revenue guidance from the prior $950M - $1.05B to $1.1 - $1.2B. Management stated that the new guidance accounts for the revenue trajectory of both Korlym and Lifyorli.
• TDOC Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Teladoc to $10 from $11 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Teladoc had a revenue miss and down on greater than anticipated deterioration in the US cash pay business in the BetterHelp (BH) segment. Teladoc tightened ranges and essentially maintained the midpoint on adj-EBITDA guidance despite lower revenue expectations in BH which the company anticipates to achieve through tighter control of advertising spend.
• TENB Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Tenable to $36 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Q2 results came in ahead of guidance and their model on all key metrics, delivering a second consecutive beat-and-raise quarter in FY26. Management raised the full-year outlook across the board with the raise roughly flowing through the Q2 beat.
• TVTX Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Travere Therapeutics to $62 from $56 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of Q2 results and noted 2Q26 is the first quarter where they expect to see revenue for Filspari in FSGS. They expect management to comment on how the launch is progressing, what they are seeing in terms of total Filspari PSFs, and draw comparisons to the previous launch in IgAN.
• VKTX Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Viking Therapeutics to $114 from $107 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said the company beat on the bottom line, reporting a loss of $1.10 per share compared to estimates of a $1.35 per share loss and the consensus estimate of a $1.23 per share loss. Management guided for lower cash expenditure in 2027 but is actively expanding their workforce.

• META Citi lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $800 from $850 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm left the company's Q2 report "incrementally positive" on its product strategy. However, Citi cites Meta's elevated spending and lower free cash flow for the target cut.
• PSN Citi lowered the firm's price target on Parsons to $53 from $66 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company's guidance cut as surprising but says the stock's initial 40% selloff "overshot the revision."
• VRT Citi lowered the firm's price target on Vertiv to $358 from $414 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm attributes the post-earnings selloff to the company's light Americas organic growth and growing concerns on the data center infrastructure buildout. However, Citi remains a buyer of the stock citing Vertiv's growing global pipeline.
• SBUX Citi raised the firm's price target on Starbucks to $112 from $108 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported a fiscal Q3 sales beat but the stock may need more to keep moving higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• OPCH Deutsche Bank downgraded Option Care Health to Hold from Buy with a price target of $24, down from $26, following the Q2 report. There are concerns around CVS updating its formularies, potentially causing another step-up in the Stelara portfolio headwind that has plagued Option Care for the past several quarters, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says investors are also concerned about the durability of the company's acute growth.
• GTX Deutsche Bank upgraded Garrett Motion to Buy from Hold with a price target of $36, up from $33. The firm views the company's Q2 report as "robust" with "strong operational execution." Garrett's strategic pivot towards the "more resilient" commercial vehicle and industrial segments is yielding near-term benefits, positioning the company to meet its mid-term outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Deutsche believes its commercial vehicle recovery outlook, Garrett's faster sales growth and the potential for more industrial contract wins in the near term indicate a multiple above where it is currently trading.

• FLEX Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney lowered the firm's price target on Flex to $154 from $177 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Flex delivered a strong report with a Q1 beat, above-consensus Q2 guidance, and raised full year outlook, while long-term growth remains supported by datacenter demand, strong backlog coverage, and secular end-market trends, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• FTNT Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges raised the firm's price target on Fortinet to $190 from $116 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Fortinet's Q2 update reflects both cyclical tailwinds and durable demand drivers, with near-term product pull-forward complemented by strengthening relevance in network-security convergence, data sovereignty, and hybrid infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• META Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $725 from $815. Meta highlighted strong AI investment returns through improved engagement, recommendations, and ad monetization, while expanding AI ambitions across agents, enterprise tools, and infrastructure despite continued uncertainty around long-term spending levels, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SOFI Goldman Sachs analyst Will Nance lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $18 from $21 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. SoFi delivered strong top-line and origination growth, but elevated expenses, capital intensity, and limited earnings flow-through constrained upside, leaving the firm seeking clearer evidence of improved returns on capital, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• HUM Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Humana to $471 from $269 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares, rolling forward the firm's same target multiple onto its "materially higher" 2028 EPS estimate of $30.41. Humana's continued prioritization of margins within the confines of member retention "bodes well for material plan-level margin expansion," the analyst tells investors.

• PG HSBC analyst Diego Serrano downgraded Procter & Gamble to Hold from Buy with a price target of $149, down from $182. The company reported "weak" fiscal Q4 results and its fiscal 2027 guidance points to another transition year with its reinvestments yet to translate into a margin recovery, the analyst tells investors in a research note. HSBC says the earnings report reversed the volume recovery that underpinned its more constructive share stance. It downgrades the shares pending clearer evidence that Procter 's reinvestment cycle is driving a sustained volume growth and margin recovery.

• TENB Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Tenable to $30 from $35 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The company reported "some encouraging signs" in Q2, but AI benefits remain further out in the future, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm views Tenable's AI opportunity as "early but exciting."
• RSI Jefferies analyst David Katz raised the firm's price target on Rush Street Interactive to $39 from $38 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The Q2 report and FY26 guidance raise support the view of Rush "as the easy-to-own name in digital gaming," the analyst tells investors. Concerns over the growth trajectory and valuation "appear unfounded" following the company's eighteenth beat and raise report in nineteen quarters, the analyst added.

• BSBR JPMorgan downgraded Santander Brasil to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $6, down from $6.50. The company's "weak" Q2 report and earnings call reinforced a more gradual earnings recovery path, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Santander Brasil's higher credit cycle risk warrants moving to the sidelines.
• META JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $640 from $725 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The stock sold off post the Q2 report as Meta's visibility into monetizing AI spend beyond advertising remains limited, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says it left the earnings report without learning much incremental on the the company's developer API, business agents, or potential plans to directly monetize compute.
• LRCX JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur raised the firm's price target on Lam Research to $340 from $315 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a "clean beat-and-raise" quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says strength in the quarter was driven by a sharp acceleration in NAND spending and continued DRAM strength.
• EQIX JPMorgan analyst Richard Choe raised the firm's price target on Equinix to $1,300 from $1,200 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q2 report as strong. Equinix is seeing better trends across the board than at its analyst day last year and now looks for total revenue growth of 10%-13% versus 7-10% previously, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CORZ Keefe Bruyette upgraded Core Scientific to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $28, up from $25.

• MOD KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Modine to $280 from $370 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Following the company's Q1 earnings release, although supply-chain headwinds were greater than expected, the firm feels this is temporary and believes the long-term trajectory remains unchanged, as evident in the reiterated guide and record data center orders.
• PRG KeyBanc analyst Bradley Thomas raised the firm's price target on Prog Holdings to $50 from $45 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm continues to view Prog as a compelling small-cap value investment, supported by its growth businesses and the recent positive inflection in trends for gross merchandise value at Progressive Leasing, which drove upside to Q2 results. Given strong first half of the year results and the outlook, the company raised 2026 guidance.

• SBUX Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Starbucks to $115 from $111 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. A sales beat in fiscal Q3 should support the stock and keep the bull narrative running, the analyst tells investors. A big EPS beat was helped by one-time items so the next quarter is "perhaps a cleaner read than this one" on the continued flow-through debate, the analyst added.
• CMG Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Chipotle to $39 from $37 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. For bulls playing for a return to mid-single digit percentage comps, that "possibility exists, though not a given," the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• CVNA Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco lowered the firm's price target on Carvana to $90 from $102 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Following the quarterly report, the firm trims its adjusted EBITDA forecast for FY26 to the higher end of the range, at $2.97B, down 6% from its prior estimate of $3.16B, the analyst tells investors. The firm applies a lower multiple as the market grapples with the "vague" second half outlook, the analyst added.
• ADP Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on ADP to $286 from $240 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Underlying ES growth is steadier than the headline suggests after normalizing for forex and the Workforce Software acquisition, but bookings face a 300 basis points tougher compare, "limiting confidence in core acceleration," the analyst tells investors.

• TENB Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens downgraded Tenable to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $30, down from $35, post the Q2 report. The firm says accelerating underlying trends post-Mythos were not present in the quarter. Tenable reported diminutive upside to modest expectations as its subscription growth "continued to erode," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PFSI Piper Sandler downgraded PennyMac Financial to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $86, down from $106. The company reported "another disappointing" quarter with single-digit returns on equity expected for the remainder of 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper says PennyMac's Q2 results fell below what it viewed as a low bar. It does not recommend investors add to shares when single-digit ROEs are expected for the remainder of the year and the path to mid-to-high teens ROEs is uncertain.
• PTC Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on PTC to $157 from $175 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says Q3 appears to be the turnaround quarter Bulls have been waiting with ARR that exceeded the high end of guidance, but importantly showcased positive year-over-year growth in sequential ARR for the first time since 2024. This momentum appears to continue into Q4 which assumes $79M to $92M sequential net ARR growth, adds Piper.
• U Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Unity to $45 from $40 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of quarterly results following positive Unity Ads commentary at the Unite Conference in Korea on July 20th. The firm is also raising Q2 Vector growth to 15% quarter-over-quarter from 12% quarter-over-quarter.
• META Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $785 from $800 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes that Meta's Q2 results were in-line with its estimates, but shares fell about 8% after hours as management did not provide clarity on near-term Compute monetization. Ad fundamentals remain strong and business messaging drove FoA Other revenue growth above 70% year-over-year again. Piper sees catalysts from the Business Agent and WhatsApp monetization.
• CORT Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Corcept Therapeutics to $165 from $88 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Corcept reported Q2 diluted EPS of 36c on revenue of $256.1M, compared to Street estimates of 2c and $220M, respectively. The company is now guiding to 2026 total revenue of $1.1B-$1.2B up from $950M-$1.05B previously, implying annual growth of about 51% at the midpoint.
• GKOS Piper Sandler analyst Matt O'Brien raised the firm's price target on Glaukos to $195 from $165 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Glaukos posted a robust Q2 print with revenues of $185.6M that came in well-above the Street's $150.6M estimate, with every segment beating consensus estimates.
• FTNT Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Fortinet to $175 from $110 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes 52% year-over-years product growth and accelerated services growth highlighted another quarter of impressive results. Though Piper acknowledges growth is likely to continue in the near-term, the firm believes shares offer a balanced setup at current levels.
• CMG Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $39 from $42 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following quarterly results. All told, it was a good quarter for the company, and management sounded enthused on the call about several of its ongoing initiatives, all of which are a part of its Recipe For Growth Plan.
• MSFT Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Microsoft to $550 from $540 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes Microsoft's Q4 print delivered amidst a backdrop of skepticism as Azure growth of 43% year-over-year constant currency showed a continued acceleration despite tougher comparisons. The company also disclosed more than 30M Copilot seats, well above expectations for more than 5M quarter-over-quarter additions.

• WIX Raymond James analyst Josh Beck downgraded Wix.com to Outperform from Strong Buy with a price target of $70, down from $75. Wix remains well positioned in the emerging Vibe Coding market and broader AI product cycle, though the recent share rally limits near-term upside until greater visibility on sustainable growth emerges, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• NBTB As previously reported, Stephens analyst Matt Breese downgraded NBT Bancorp to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $55, up from $52. Post earnings, the firm reduced its 2026 operating EPS estimate 5% and trimmed its 2027 forecast by less than 1%, notes the analyst, who views its previous Overweight thesis as "played out" with shares up 30% year-to-date.

• PSN Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Parsons to $66 from $79 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The report was "dominated" by the total $118M in EBITDA charges the company took in the quarter, which resulted in adjusted EBITDA coming in 73% below Street estimates and drove a 35% selloff in the session, the analyst tells investors. The firm, which reduced its 2026 estimates for adjusted EBITDA by only 2% excluding the discrete charges to reflect the portfolio impacts and contract exits, views yesterday's selloff as "exaggerated," the analyst added.

• SMG UBS analyst Peter Grom raised the firm's price target on Scotts Miracle-Gro to $78 from $70 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Scotts Miracle-Gro delivered a Q3 beat and raised bottom-line guidance, but shares declined on softer near-term sales expectations, elevated inventory, and tempered long-term targets, with valuation already reflecting much of the recovery outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• FVRR UBS lowered the firm's price target on Fiverr to $10 from $13 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Shares declined sharply after weaker Q2 results and a challenging second half outlook, as AI disruption pressures lower-value work while the company transitions toward higher-value projects, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• META UBS lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $715 from $766 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Meta's Business Agents opportunity may be underappreciated, with rapid adoption and planned monetization potentially driving a step-function in revenue by 2027-2028, while AI infrastructure investments create additional upside optionality, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• EQIX UBS analyst John Hodulik raised the firm's price target on Equinix to $1,265 from $1,210 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Equinix is positioned for sustained growth as AI-driven enterprise demand, constrained colocation supply, and expanded capacity investment support accelerating revenue and earnings growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• QCOM UBS lowered the firm's price target on Qualcomm to $170 from $190 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Qualcomm faces near-term EPS pressure from faster Apple declines, but greater clarity on the royalty outlook and growth from China Android and datacenter adjacencies could shift investor focus toward longer-term diversification, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SBUX UBS raised the firm's price target on Starbucks to $112 from $105 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Starbucks delivered strong Q3 results and raised FY26 guidance as the "Back to Starbucks" turnaround gains traction, though valuation appears to reflect much of the expected multiyear recovery, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• SMG Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Scotts Miracle-Gro to $77 from $74 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While Scotts Miracle-Gro closed down a touch as an in-line season and slightly elevated inventory weighed, the firm nevertheless emerges with FY27 EPS estimates 10% higher and risk-reward looking favorable at lower end of past price-to-earnings.
• CVNA Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Carvana to $80 from $85 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While the company's Q2 was roughly in-line, the firm attributes after-hours pressure primarily to weaker-than-expected second half of the year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Near-term obstacles remain, but share gains are robust and the long-term opportunity is intact, Wells adds.
• FICO Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on FICO to $1,450 from $1,400 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company delivered an EPS beat of $12.18 vs. Street $11.95 despite revenue coming in modestly below expectations. Full year guidance was raised but remains below Street estimates. The Direct Licensing Program is awaiting final GSE approval before going live, Wells adds.
• SBUX Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Starbucks to $125 from $120 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. A beat/raise was expected, but Starbucks more than delivered, the firm says. Wells argues that the strategy is working, innovation is a near-term catalyst, and sharp EBIT expansion adds conviction to long-term upside. Price-to-earnings is high but more runway ahead, adds the firm.
• MNKD Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on MannKind to $14 from $11 on higher Furoscix and '201 probability of success, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. Informed by competitor PK/tissue exposure data, the firm's best estimate is that '201 is likely achieving better tissue exposure vs Ofev, though the market may need clear Phase 2 efficacy data.
• META Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $640 from $835 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Amid broad uncertainty on the hyperscaler investment cycle, Meta incremental return on investment case remains the more opaque, the firm says. Management commentary suggests seeking flexibility in building beyond 2027 and having less appetite for near-term capacity sales. Wells is also cutting estimates.
• MSFT Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Microsoft to $650 from $625 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Now with a cleaner setup into 2027, the firm thinks Microsoft has room to meaningfully re-rate given clearer response to ROIC questions, strong Azure upside and Copilot-led M365 Commercial cloud acceleration through FY27.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 8:30 AM ET                   Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation M/M for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for July
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AGYS AMKR APLD BLX BRO BRX CBK CBDNS CDP CINF CLS ESI FFIV FSUN KFRC KRC NBTN NTB NUE NVTS NWBI PFG RMBS RNGR SANM SSD SUI TFII UDR UHS WELL WHR

• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance goods Trade Balance for June
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Price M/M for May
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20-city index M/M for May
• 10:00 AM ET                 Richmond Fed Manufacturing for July
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for July
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAT ACGL ACHC AKR APAM ASH AXS BE BXP CAKE CAR CHE CLW CNP CR CSGP CTO CZR ENPH EXE EXLS EXR F FCF FE GEF HIW HURN KLAC LOGI LSTR MANH MDLZ MEOH MIR NBR NEO NOV NXPI OI OMC ORN PDM PDS PPG QRVO QUAD RBBN RNST ROG RUSHA SBCF SLDE STAG STX SWKS TER THG TLRY TMRK TTAM UMBF UNM V VLTO VRNS WERN WM WPC ZWS

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy Meeting concludes; no changes to rates expected

• Earnings After the Close: ADPT AEM AGI ALGN ALKT ALRS AM AR ARIS ARM ASTL AUR AWK BBNX BBT BELFA BHC BHE BN BOOM CBZ CHDN CHRW CLB CMG CMPT CMTG CNMD CNXN COUR CP CRK CSL CVI CVLG CVNA CWH EA EFOR EG EIG EPR EQIX ESRT ESS ETD FCPT FICO FLS FMC FORM FTAI FTNT GFL GKOS GRBK HLI HOOD HXL INVH KGC LHX LRCX LUNG LXU MAA MAX MC MDXG META MGM MOD MORN MSFT MTG MTH MX MYRG NEU NFG NGVT NSP NEW OHI ORLY PBI PCOR PEB PFSI PI PLXS PMT PPC PRCH PSA PTC QCOM QTWO REG RGR RM RSI SBUX SFM SIMO SONO ST TDOC TENB TK TNK TREE TTEK TYL UFPI UIS VET VICI VTR WAY WFG WHD WWD

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption for Q2
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q2
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index (headline) for Q2 M/M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index for Q2 M/M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Income M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index headline M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index headline Y/Y for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index (core) M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index (core) Y/Y for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAPL ACCO ADC AEE AJG AMH AMZN ASUR ATR AX AXTI BFAM BJRI BWIN CDNA CERS CNO COHU COIN COLM CPT CSTL CTVA CUBE CUZ DLB DRH DXC DXCM EGO EIX EMN ERIE ES EXPO FHI FLGT FND FORR FSLR GDDY GH GLPI GSIT HR HUN ILMN INGM IR IVR KWR LNT LOPE LPLA LYV MHK MMSI MPWR MSA MSTR MTD MTX MTZ NBIX NXT OCFC OLED OLN PBA PTCT RBLX RDDT RIVN RYAN SAFE SNDR SONY SPSC SPXC SYK TBKK TEM VCYT WU WY

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for July

• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for July
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Sentiment, July-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, July-final
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Earnings After the Close: