Early Look

Friday, March 20, 2026

U.S. futures turned lower again last night, with weakness yet again in Europe and Asia on rising Treasury yields/rates on inflation concerns and with no reprieve in the Middle East war as Israel launched a new wave of airstrikes on Tehran. These strikes coincided with the Persian New Year (Nowruz), which has significantly heightened regional tensions. Brent oil prices resume their upward swing after slipping late Thursday, as Iran pressed ahead with attacks on Arab states in the Persian Gulf even after Israel signaled it would refrain from hitting the Islamic Republic’s energy infrastructure. Reports indicate today that the Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. An operation to take over Kharg Island could put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire. https://tinyurl.com/ytac48b4 . In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index was closed after falling -3.3% the day prior, the Shanghai Index fell -49 points of 1.24% to settle at 3,957, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -223 points to 25,277. In Europe, the German DAX is down -50 points to 22,788, while the FTSE 100 slips -32 points to 10,030. Oil is headed for another weekly gains and stocks another weekly loss.

Note today is quadruple witching OpEx Day, the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivative contracts—stock options, stock index options, stock futures, and stock index futures (happens 4 times a year). Roughly $5.7 trillion in notional options tied to individual US stocks, indexes and exchange-traded funds are set to expire on Friday, the largest March expiry in Citigroup Inc. data going back to 1996. That figure includes $4.1 trillion in index contracts, $772 billion in exchange-traded funds and $875 billion in single-stock options, per Bloomberg.

U.S. Treasury yields rose at the front end of the curve on Thursday, with two‑year yields touching a seven‑month high, although markets regained some of their footing as they digested cautious rate decisions by key central banks against the backdrop of war in Iran. This morning, Treasury yields continued their advance higher as markets reacted to hawkish comments from central banks and Brent crude oil stayed above $100 a barrel. Two-year yields climbed four basis points to 3.83%, while the 5-year yield gained three points to 3.91% (both hit 7-month peaks yesterday).

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -203.72 points, or 0.44%, to 46,021.43
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -61.73 points, or 0.28%, to 22,090.69
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 16.07 points, or 0.65% to 2,494.71

• Scholastic Corp. (SCHL) Q3 adj EPS ($0.15) vs est ($0.37), adj EBITDA $0 vs est $3.566Mm on revs $329.1Mm; guides FY adj EBITDA $146-156Mm vs est $151.73Mm; authorizes $200Mm modified Dutch auction tender as part of $300Mm repurchase.
• Torrid Holdings (CURV) Q4 EPS ($0.08) vs est ($0.12), adj EBITDA $5.1Mm vs est $2.89Mm on revs $236.168Mm vs est $229.67Mm; guides Q1 sales $236-244Mm vs est $234.13Mm and adj EBITDA $14-18Mm vs est $25.71Mm; sees FY sales $940-960Mm vs est $938.7Mm and adj EBITDA $65-75Mm vs est $69.09Mm.
• Unilever (UL) is in talks to sell its foods business to smaller rival McCormick & Company (MKC). Unilever said on Friday it had received an offer from McCormick, while McCormick confirmed it was engaged in discussions with Unilever regarding a potential strategic transaction involving the food business.

• FireFly Aerospace (FLY) Q4 EPS ($0.26) vs est ($0.47) on revs $57.7Mm vs est $52.36Mm; guides FY revs $420-450Mm vs est $440.45Mm.
• H.B. Fuller (FUL) announced a global price adjustment across all product lines, reflecting its commitment to ensuring reliable supply and consistent service to customers in a dynamic global materials environment.
• Mosaic (MOS) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Freedom Capital and cut tgt to $24 from $30 saying the Middle East conflict has created a bifurcated shock in the fertilizer market; was also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America and tgt cut to $30.
• Navigator Gas (NVGS) announced a Secondary Offering by selling shareholder BW Group of 7,000,000 shares and a concurrent Company Share Repurchase of 3,500,000 shares to be purchased at the public offering price.
• Parsons Corporation (PSN) said it had been awarded a classified U.S. government contract extension valued at more than $47 million.
• Protective Life (PL) Q4 adj EPS $0.00 vs est ($0.05) on revs $86.822Mm vs est $78.53Mm, adj gr mgn 57%; guides FY revs $415-440Mm vs est $379.59Mm.

• Gemini Space (GEMI) reported reporting Q4 revenue that beat the average analyst estimate and said it is deploying artificial intelligence tools to increase productivity.

• GrowGeneration (GRWG) announces $10M share repurchase program; Q4 net sales of $37.8M compared to $37.4M y/y; Q4 gross profit margin of 24.1%, compared to 16.4% y/y; Q4 store and other operating expenses declined approximately 26.8% to $6.8M and total operating expenses decreased $13.3M, or 44.4%, to $16.7M.
• Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM) said the FDA approved its treatment, Imcivree, as the first therapy for acquired hypothalamic obesity; said approval comes after late-stage trial showed patients on Imcivree cut body mass index by about 16% over a year, vs. an increase on those given placebo.

• Nvidia’s (NVDA) $20 billion licensing deal with AI startup Groq is being probed by a pair of Democratic senators over whether it violates antitrust laws – Bloomberg.
• Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) shares tumbled after its co-founder was charged with illegally diverting billions of dollars in Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) -powered servers to China, initiating its highest-profile case against alleged smuggling of restricted AI technology to the Asian country.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, March 20, 2026

U.S. stocks were lower overnight, and now extending losses on the open as every morning this week has been met with negative headlines out of the Middle East.  There has been no easing of headlines as dozens of refineries, oil fields, gas plants, ports and other energy infrastructure have been reportedly damaged by missile and drone strikes across the Middle East, since the Iran war started. Kuwait said two waves of drone strikes at its Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery sparked a fire and crews were working to control the blaze early today. The headline that hit markets last night was Axios reporting the Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, headlines that the US sending three warships to Middle East and sending thousands of additional marines also did not help sentiment as oil prices bounced again and S&P futures sunk, again, with no easing of fighting in sight. The war headlines continue to dominate market action. The inflation fears caused by surging energy prices has pushed out any hopes of fed rate cuts this year and has pushed the dollar, and Treasury yields markedly higher the last 3 weeks. US Treasury yields continue climb as stocks accelerate and fall with the 10-year yield last up 6.3 basis points at 4.346% and two-year yields climb further, last up 9.1 basis points at 3.924%. With the macro moves, Traders now price in 50% chance of Fed rate increase by October! Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Friday she’s notably more in the way of interest rate cuts relative to her colleagues. “I'm still concerned about...the job market,” Bowman said in an interview on the FOX Business. "I've written three cuts in for, before the end of 2026 to hopefully support the labor market,” she said. Bowman’s decidedly dovish outlook on monetary policy stands in contrast with others at the central bank. U.S. stocks on track to extend weekly losses with the only sector on the day and week that is in positive territory is Energy (XLE), while Consumer Staples (XLP) and Materials (XLB) amid weak metals are down the most of -3.5% for week.

• In Chemicals: FUL announced a global price adjustment across all product lines, reflecting its commitment to ensuring reliable supply and consistent service to customers in a dynamic global materials environment; MOS was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Freedom Capital and cut tgt to $24 from $30 saying the Middle East conflict has created a bifurcated shock in the fertilizer market (MOS was also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America and tgt cut to $30). APD was upgraded to Overweight (from Neutral) at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $310 saying Air Products is probably a better relative share price performer in an economic environment where the risks of economic deceleration, higher inflation, and upward interest rate movements have increased because of the stability of its EPS growth.
• Aerospace & Defense: YSS shares rose after results and after the space and defense company gave revenue guidance in its first report as a public company; PL shares surged after reported Q4 results that handily beating consensus revs/EPS by +11%/+$0.02 while guiding FQ127 revenue above by +5%; Q4 revenue growth accelerated to 41% Y/y on strength in EMEA (+82% Y/y) and Defense & Intelligence segment sales (+62% Y/y) while backlog increased 109% Y/y and B2B was 1.9; drone maker UMAC shares fall after prices 8.82M shares at $17.00 in public offering; FLY shares rose on smaller than expected Q4 loss ($0.26) vs est ($0.47) while Q4 revenue jumped more than six-fold to $57.7M from $9M y/y.

• DELL +3%; seen as a beneficiary along with HPE off the SMCI news on expectations it means they get more rack business and are key competitors in Server solutions.
• FDX +6%; Q3 EPS showed significant momentum with 10% revenue growth in FEC and 70 bp of Y/y margin improvement; guided full-year revenue to be up in the range of 6.0%-6.5% y/y above prior view of growth between 5%-6; boosts FY EPS view to $19.30-$20.10, from prior $17.80-$19.00.
• FIGS +6%; was upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer, now increasingly optimistic that improved operational disciplines and easing sector and macro hindrances are underpinning a Re-strengthening in results and helping to clear a path back toward peak performance metrics.
• FLY +10%; shares rose on smaller than expected Q4 loss ($0.26) vs est ($0.47) while Q4 revenue jumped more than six-fold to $57.7M from $9M y/y.
• PL +15%; shares surged after reported Q4 results that handily beating consensus revs/EPS by +11%/+$0.02 while guiding FQ127 revenue above by +5%; Q4 revenue growth accelerated to 41% Y/y on strength in EMEA (+82% Y/y) and Defense & Intelligence segment sales (+62% Y/y) while backlog increased 109% Y/y and B2B was 1.9.
• RYTM +6%; said the FDA approved its treatment, Imcivree, as the first therapy for acquired hypothalamic obesity; said approval comes after late-stage trial showed patients on Imcivree cut body mass index by about 16% over a year, vs. an increase on those given placebo.

• SMCI -26%; shares tumbled after U.S. prosecutors charge three individuals tied to the AI server maker with smuggling U.S. AI technology to China, including its co-founder. The DOJ alleges a $2.5B scheme in which servers were routed through Taiwan and Southeast Asia and sent illegally to China despite export curbs.
• TECK 3%; seeing more weakness in copper and previous metal stocks (AEM, CDE, HL, WPM) as gold/silver prices reverse lower given the rise in yields and expectations of the next Fed move being rate hikes not cuts given the fears of surging inflation due to the ongoing rise in energy costs.
• UMAC -12%; after prices 8.82M shares at $17.00 in public offering.
• XPEV %; as Q4 revenue rose 38% y/y to RMB22.25B, as net profit turned positive, delivered 116,249 vehicles in Q4, up 27% y/y and gross margin for Q4 improved to 21.3%, up 6.9% y/y but said it sees Q1 vehicle deliveries between 61K-66K, down 29.8%-35.1% y/y and revs between RMB12.20B-RMB13.28B, down 16.0%-22.8% y/y.

Closing Recap

Friday, March 20, 2026

U.S. stocks tumbled on the day and week, posting its 4^th straight week of declines for the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Comp with many stock market averages dropping below key technical trading levels. The combination of surging Treasury yields, Fed rate cuts appearing to be off the table due to the rising inflation (with hikes now being talked about), led by spiking energy costs due to the escalating war between the U.S. and Middle East countries against Iran have sent sentiment downward. Each day has been filled with new attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East region with little to no shipping taking place in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to all sort of supply constraints/concerns in material sectors. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell below its 200dma support of 6,621, while Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) also dropped below its 200dma ($592.85 for the QQQ). Today the Nasdaq-100 hits new yearly low, falling over -2% now down over -5% YTD. REITs (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) were the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 as higher Treasury yields make dividend paying sectors less attractive (10-yr +8bps to 4.364%), while Technology (XLK) also saw sharp declines. Homebuilders were another sector hit by rising yields and fears of rate hikes by the Fed in the future to combat inflation.  For the week, only Energy (XLE) ended the week higher, with large declines in Materials (XLB) and Healthcare (XLV) as well. There was nowhere to hide this week with bonds crushed on inflation fears, the dollar jumping on expectations the next move by the Fed will be rate hikes, precious metals and industrial metals also large declines as investors concern intensified over the inflationary impact of the war-driven global energy shock, with expectations the pressure will not ease anytime soon. The S&P 500 (SPX) hit lows around 6,500 late day, levels not seen since September. The late day swoon to lows came after headlines that the U.S. is now preparing possible ground troops for Iran.

Note today was quadruple witching OpEx Day, the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivative contracts—stock options, stock index options, stock futures, and stock index futures (happens 4 times a year). Roughly $5.7 trillion in notional options tied to individual US stocks, indexes and exchange-traded funds are set to expire on Friday, the largest March expiry in Citigroup Inc. data going back to 1996. That figure includes $4.1 trillion in index contracts, $772 billion in exchange-traded funds and $875 billion in single-stock options, per Bloomberg.

U.S. equity funds witnessed the largest weekly net sales in nearly 2-1/2 months in the week to March 18 as expectations of higher oil prices, a hotter-than-expected inflation Reading and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance dampened hopes for rate cuts this year. Investors shed U.S. equity funds of a net $24.78B in their largest weekly net sales since $25.89B divestments in the week to January 7, LSEG Lipper data showed. U.S. large-cap funds lost a net $36.11B as weekly outflows surged to the highest since mid-September 2025. Mid-cap funds also faced a net $606M outflow, but small-cap funds saw roughly $1.75B worth of net purchases. Sectoral funds saw a net $793M in inflows following a week of outflows as investors pumped roughly $1.55B - the most in six weeks - into the industrial sector funds – Reuters.

• Treasury yields jumped again Friday, adding to its weekly total as bonds declined a third week since the start of the Iran war. The near-term path of monetary policy following the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold rates steady has changed, with fed fund futures now predicting the next move could be a hike with a 50% chance move in October, reflecting a shift in rate expectations after recent Fed commentary post the war and recent inflation data (PPI this week much hotter). Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious but data-dependent stance at the March meeting, where the benchmark federal funds rate was left unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The 10-yr yield rose 10.9bps today to settle the week at 4.39% and is now up 43bps from its 2026 closing low of 3.961% hit Friday, Feb. 27, 2026, rising three straight weeks. The shorter term 2-year yield rose 6.2bps to 3.893% today, and up 16.1bps for the week, also up a 3rd straight week. The 2-yr yield is up 51.6bps from its 52-week low of 3.377% hit Friday, Feb. 27, 2026, and at its highest yield now since July 31, 2025
• The U.S. dollar gained but posted a weekly fall against major currencies as investors pared back bets on interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve given the likelihood of higher inflation from rising energy prices. The euro, yen, sterling and Swiss franc ended with weekly gains against the dollar as policymakers laid the groundwork for higher interest rates in response to the war in the Middle East, which has choked oil and gas supplies. The euro was down 0.39% to $1.155 but on track to add 1% this week. Silver prices declined for an 8th straight red day, its longest losing streak since December 2023 falling -$1.55 or 2.18% to settle at $69.66 per barrel. Gold prices slumped, reversing earlier gains falling -$30.80 or 0.67% to settle at $4,574.90 an ounce for biggest weekly fall since 1983. Gold declined nearly 10% on the week, as the -$486.10 loss is the largest single-week dollar decline gold has ever had, while percentage wise it's the biggest slide since September 201

• Consumer Products: PBH signed a deal to buy a portfolio of brands that includes the Breathe Right nasal strip from privately held Foundation Consumer Healthcare for $1.045 billion. Prestige said the portfolio generated about $200 million in revenue in 2025. FIGS was upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer, now increasingly optimistic that improved operational disciplines and easing sector and macro hindrances are underpinning a Re-strengthening in results and helping to clear a path back toward peak performance metrics.
• In Food sector: UL is in talks to sell its foods business to smaller rival MKC Unilever said on Friday it had received an offer from McCormick, while McCormick confirmed it was engaged in discussions with Unilever regarding a potential strategic transaction involving the food business. FRPT was upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer saying following the 10%+ pullback on 3/17 driven by concerns of new competition from COST's Kirkland Signature brand, they now see a more attractive risk/reward.
• In Autos: Chinese EV maker XPEV reported Q4 revenue rose 38% y/y to RMB22.25B, as net profit turned positive, delivered 116,249 vehicles in Q4, up 27% y/y and gross margin for Q4 improved to 21.3%, up 6.9% y/y but said it sees Q1 vehicle deliveries between 61K-66K, down 29.8%-35.1% y/y and revs between RMB12.20B-RMB13.28B, down 16.0%-22.8% y/y.

• Oil Equipment & Services: HAL and HP were both upgraded from In Line to Outperform at Evercore saying these names are uniquely levered to US onshore activity. Evercore has a modest 35 rigs returning to work in 2026 and its estimates for both are above consensus for 2027.
• Solar Sector: SEDG was upgraded from Underperform to Hold at Jefferies and raise tgt to $49 from $30 saying the Middle East conflict drives volatility in European energy prices, mirroring the Russia-Ukraine crisis that boosted SEDG's Europe revenue to a peak of $1.9B in '23 vs $630M in '20. Since the start of the conflict, TTF gas has surged 94%, with electricity pricing stable thus far.
• MLPs/Pipelines: OKE was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jefferies and raised tgt to $98 from $85 saying the company equity screens complacent on right tail risk as Iran duration raises the odds of a higher structural crude risk premium. Even if near-term volumes lag, OKE has tangible upside via butane blending/location spreads and potential Bakken leverage in FY27+.

• ETON Q4 headline results beat with FY26 guidance of >$110M (ahead of Street prior ~$105M) with adjusted EBITDA margin of >30%, paired with new long-term goals of a $200M revenue run-rate exiting Q427, 50% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, and $500M revenue by 2030.
• NVS acquired an experimental breast-cancer drug from Synnovation Therapeutics in a deal valued up to $3B, moving to bolster its oncology pipeline with a new treatment approach. Novartis is paying $2 billion upfront and up to $1 billion subject to reaching targets to acquire a Synnovation subsidiary called Pikavation Therapeutics.
• RYTM said the FDA approved its treatment, Imcivree, as the first therapy for acquired hypothalamic obesity; said approval comes after late-stage trial showed patients on Imcivree cut body mass index by about 16% over a year, vs. an increase on those given placebo.
• In Life Sciences & Tools: MTD was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jefferies saying despite absorbing >190 bps of gross tariff impact in '25 (vs. 50-100 bps for most of Tools), GMs only underperformed initial FY estimates by 80 bps (vs. -160 bps Tools average), with MTD being one of the only Tools company to actually beat consensus.

• Aerospace & Defense: YSS shares rose after results and after the space and defense company gave revenue guidance in its first report as a public company; PL shares surged after reported Q4 results that handily beating consensus revs/EPS by +11%/+$0.02 while guiding FQ127 revenue above by +5%; Q4 revenue growth accelerated to 41% Y/y on strength in EMEA (+82% Y/y) and Defense & Intelligence segment sales (+62% Y/y) while backlog increased 109% Y/y and B2B was 1.9; drone maker UMAC shares fall after prices 8.82M shares at $17.00 in public offering; FLY shares rose on smaller than expected Q4 loss ($0.26) vs est ($0.47) while Q4 revenue jumped more than six-fold to $57.7M from $9M y/y.
• Homebuilding stocks (BZH, DHI, LEN, KBH, TOL, etc.) saw broad weakness, pulling back as the recent surge in Treasury yields weighing on sentiment as mortgage rates rise again.

• Copper Metals: RBC Capital said the war with Iran has no end in sight and it is very difficult to see how long the 'buy the dips' mentality will last as global growth estimates begin to get downgraded. For RBC's sector, it sees the most risk in copper, from both a commodity price and multiple perspective. The firm makes several changes as they downgraded Antofagasta (ANFGF), and Central Asia Metals (CAMLF) to Underperform from Sector Perform, Boliden (BDNNY) and Atalaya Mining (ATLYF) downgraded to Sector Perform, while Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) was upgraded to Outperform in copper space.
• In Chemicals: FUL announced a global price adjustment across all product lines, reflecting its commitment to ensuring reliable supply and consistent service to customers in a dynamic global materials environment; MOS was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Freedom Capital and cut tgt to $24 from $30 saying the Middle East conflict has created a bifurcated shock in the fertilizer market (MOS was also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America and tgt cut to $30). APD was upgraded to Overweight (from Neutral) at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $310 saying Air Products is probably a better relative share price performer in an economic environment where the risks of economic deceleration, higher inflation, and upward interest rate movements have increased because of the stability of its EPS growth.

• Semiconductors: ARM was double upgraded to Buy from Reduce at HSBC arguing that the company's transition from being a smartphone dependent semiIP play to a major AI server CPU beneficiary is still being undervalued by the market. NVDA 20 billion licensing deal with AI startup Groq is being probed by a pair of Democratic senators over whether it violates antitrust laws – Bloomberg. SMCI shares tumbled after U.S. prosecutors charge three individuals tied to the AI server maker with smuggling U.S. AI technology to China, including its co-founder. The DOJ alleges a $2.5B scheme in which servers were routed through Taiwan and Southeast Asia and sent illegally to China despite export curbs (DELL, HPE, TSSI among some names seen benefitting from the SMCI news as key competitors in Server solutions).
• AEIS, MKSI coverage transferred with Buys at Citigroup as firm open positive catalyst watch on AEIS saying the component suppliers to Semiconductor Equipment OEMs are well positioned to benefit from the ongoing WFE upcycle, and historically have the ability to outperform WFE, particularly in the early stages of a multi-year Cycle.

Street Recommendations

Friday, March 20, 2026

• BABA Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Alibaba to $190 from $195 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the earnings report. It views Openclaw as a "game changer."
• BZ Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Kanzhun to $19 from $28 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's Q4 results were better than expected but the Q1 guidance came in below due to Chinse New Year seasonality, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PGNY Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Progyny to $23 from $29 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after meeting with management. The company sounded positive on utilization and membership trends, but it will take time for membership gains and the execution needed to rebuild investor confidence, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• WSM Barclays analyst Seth Sigman raised the firm's price target on Williams-Sonoma to $186 from $180 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's sales trends are "encouraging" as its multi-year growth rates continue to improve, but upside needs to come from margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ACN BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Accenture to $230 from $300 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company reported a reasonable Q2 with impressive results in free cash flow being a standout, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BMO adds however that while it believes Accenture has strong AI positioning due to factors such as scale, partnerships, and training investments, it continues to question whether AI is a longer-term tailwind given efficiency gains for most of its IT services.

• FDX BofA raised the firm's price target on FedEx to $440 from $431 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After the company reported its "strongest U.S. market share gains in 20 years," the firm says FedEx is showing solid momentum in winning share and managing its costs and network transformation in "what remains a volatile global trade backdrop." Following the company's earnings beat and guidance hike, the firm increased its FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates 5% and 2%, respectively.
• LNG BofA raised the firm's price target on Cheniere Energy (LNG) to $322 from $296 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Following Israel's Wednesday attack on the Iran South Pars gas field, Iran hit two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains with missiles, which caused European Title Transfer Facility price to rise 15% overnight on the 2026 forward curve, the analyst tells investors. QatarGas said it will take 3-5 years for the repairs and 12.8MTA of capacity will be offline, which "dramatically improves the oversupply picture," says the analyst, who adds that Venture Global (VG) offers the highest leverage to global gas pricing within the firm's coverage and is "the best way to gain exposure to rising TTF prices."
• CQP BofA analyst Jean Ann Salisbury raised the firm's price target on Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) to $57 from $51 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Following Israel's Wednesday attack on the Iran South Pars gas field, Iran hit two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains with missiles, which caused European Title Transfer Facility price to rise 15% overnight on the 2026 forward curve, the analyst tells investors. QatarGas said it will take 3-5 years for the repairs and 12.8MTA of capacity will be offline, which "dramatically improves the oversupply picture," says the analyst, who adds that Venture Global (VG) offers the highest leverage to global gas pricing within the firm's coverage and is "the best way to gain exposure to rising TTF prices."

• MELI BTIG analyst Marvin Fong lowered the firm's price target on MercadoLibre to $2,400 from $2,650 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is reducing its estimates as it notes the company has been signaling comfort with a lower 2026 operating margin than BTIG previously modeled, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CLOV Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Clover Health to $3.20 from $3.70 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Clover took some lumps in 2025 alongside the rest of managed care with heightened medical costs, but the company closed out the year on a solid note without further deterioration. Heading into 2026, the company has strong tailwinds, namely being paid as a 4-star plan and favorable 2026 rates from CMS. In their view, the story is plausible and compelling.
• FCFS Canaccord raised the firm's price target on FirstCash to $240 from $217 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm met with management where they were upbeat and confident as business has been quite strong for awhile and firing on all cylinders.
• LUNR Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Intuitive Machines to $24 from $22.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results where management introduced its 2026 outlok and provided updates on new contract awards and progression of key company initiatives.
• SPIR Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Spire Global to $14 from $10.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results which beat on both the top and bottom lines and management introduced Q1 and 2026 guidance at the midpoint.
• STOK Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Stoke Therapeutics to $60 from $36 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes consensus is low as the company reiterated its timeline that it expects to complete enrollment on its ongoing Phase 3 EMPEROR trial for zorevunersen for Dravet syndrome in 2Q26, with data in mid-2027. The reason for the target increase is based on the new net price of $600k/year for zorevunersen.
• PERI Canaccord analyst Matthew Weber initiated coverage of Perion Network with a Buy rating and $14 price target. With two decades of operating history, Perion is "currently in the midst of what may be its most compelling strategic pivot yet" in an increasingly fragmented media buying landscape, the analyst tells investors. While "not dismissing the risk associated with turnarounds," the firm contends that a substantial amount of operating risk already appears priced in and it sees "a credible path" for continued CTV and DOOH momentum to sustain consolidated growth at "a level that would likely lead to a meaningful rerating from today's deeply discounted valuation."

• RYTM Citi analyst Samantha Semenkow raised the firm's price target on Rhythm Pharmaceuticals to $142 from $131 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the FDA approved Imcivree for patients with acquired hypothalamic obesity. The approval positions Rhythm for its next phase of growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MKSI Citi analyst Elizabeth Sun lowered the firm's price target on MKS Inc. to $290 from $295 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following a transfer of coverage. The company is well positioned to benefit from the ongoing wafter fab equipment upcycle, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BABA Citi raised the firm's price target on Alibaba to $200 from $197 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's fiscal Q3 report came in softer than expected, but AliCloud growth accelerated further, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi continues to view Alibaba as a "strong AI play."
• VZ Citi analyst Michael Rollins raised the firm's price target on Verizon to $55 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees "positive optionality" from Verizon's streamlining of its cost structure and expanding its converged services. The company has the potential to return to annual service revenue growth in 2027 and improve EBITDA and free cash flow, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• IFRX Guggenheim analyst Yatin Suneja lowered the firm's price target on InflaRx to $14 from $22 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm continues to think that the stock is significantly undervalued and believes "more investors should be paying attention to this name," adding that it updated its model to reflect value for ANCA-associated vasculitis.
• ACN Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Accenture to $250 from $275 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While the firm does expect Accenture to be "an eventual beneficiary" given their strategic positioning in AI, it argues that "negative investor sentiment is difficult to fight when we have yet to see a material uptick in revenue or bookings growth from the wave of AI-related workloads that management believes is on the horizon." The firm cites industry-wide multiple compression for its lowered target following the company's fiscal Q2 report.

• MTD Jefferies analyst Tycho Peterson upgraded Mettler-Toledo to Buy from Hold with a price target of $1,450, up from $1,400. The company enters 2026 "from a position of strength," with a track record of executing through tariffs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm views Mettler's 2026 guidance as "prudent," and sees upside to estimates in both the near- and mid-term. The shares trade at at 10-year "trough valuation" as Mettler-Toledo's bioprocess and services units remain underappreciated, contends Jefferies. The firm adds the company exposure to geopolitics and AI disruption are low.
• SEDG Jefferies upgraded SolarEdge to Hold from Underperform with a price target of $49, up from $30, as the Middle East conflict drives volatility in European energy prices. This current impact is mirroring the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which boosted SolarEdge's Europe revenue to a peak of $1.9B in 2023 from $630M in 2020, notes the analyst, who expects a potential, but "not as dramatic," demand surge in Europe to support earnings.

• OGE JPMorgan initiated coverage of OGE Energy with an Overweight rating and $52 price target. The firm says the company "stands out" as a smaller cap vertically integrated electric utility with "meaningful leverage" to accelerating infrastructure demand tied to Oklahoma's economic development activity. OGE is well positioned to execute against the top end of its 5%-7% annual earnings growth range, with potential to exceed this growth target should capacity needs materialize above expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• OXY JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram upgraded Occidental to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $63, up from $44. The firm cites the stock's in-line valuation relative to Occidental's large-cap exploration and production peers on both free cash flow and balance sheet metrics for the upgrade. Occidental generates 85% of its upstream production from the U.S., but does have Middle East exposure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SM JPMorgan analyst Zach Parham upgraded SM Energy to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $40, up from $37, after resuming coverage following a period of restriction. The company's completed acquisition of Civitas has bolstered its acreage position in the Midland Basin and added new operational areas in the Delaware and DJ basins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says that with oil prices moving significantly higher due to the Iran conflict, SM's deleveraging timeline will be pulled forward. The firm sees potential for SM to "quickly deleverage" and shift more free cash flow towards cash return.
• CRGY JPMorgan upgraded Crescent Energy to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $19, up from $14, after resuming coverage following a period of restriction. The firm is "impressed" with the company's success in consolidating the Eagle Ford and improving capital efficiency. Crescent is now the third largest oil producer in the play, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Crescent also moved its royalty assets into a separate entity, with could pave the way for a future transaction if the market continues to not recognize the value of the royalty business, contends JPMorgan.
• FDX JPMorgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck raised the firm's price target on FedEx to $432 from $424 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported a "beat and raise" fiscal Q3, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says FedEx's legacy business is seeing a "unique combination" of price and yield growth, combined with improving execution in a challenging environment.
• PAG JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Penske Automotive to $170 from $175 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm cut Q1 estimates across the auto dealer group to reflect weather headwinds and the "oil shock." There are concerns about second half of 2026 and 2027 outlooks on the increasing probability of a sustained spike in oil prices and related implications for consumer spending, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• BABA Mizuho analyst Wei Fang lowered the firm's price target on Alibaba to $190 from $195 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following the earnings report. Token costs are increasingly viewed as production costs and enterprise customers in China are significantly ramping usage for productivity and efficiency, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm reduced Alibaba's estimates citing soft demand and continued investments.

• FDX Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker raised the firm's price target on FedEx to $230 from $220 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. Fiscal Q3 was a roughly 20% beat as the company "reaped peak season rewards," but the big disparity between segment results, fiscal Q4 implied guidance below consensus and questions around sustainability lead the firm to have concerns about heightened earnings volatility and limited visibility on normalized EPS, the analyst tells investors.

• PL Needham analyst Ryan Koontz raised the firm's price target on Planet Labs to $40 from $35 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

• ZURA Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Zura Bio to $15 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company reported year-end financial results and highlighted progress for ongoing trials of Tibulizumab in both Hidradenitis Suppurativa and Systemic Sclerosis. The company experienced a management transition in January with co-founder Sandeep Kulkarni adding to his board role with CEO position. The firm anticipates he will be important in positioning the company for clinical execution in 2026, with the first readout late this year in HS.
• CSIQ Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Canadian Solar to $19 from $38 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm believes Canadian Solar is making the structural changes necessary to adapt to three major market drivers: shifting U.S. policy focused on domestic manufacturing; power demand driven by data centers that require 24/7 operation and increased power quality; and broader geopolitical uncertainty that potentially disrupts global energy markets. By scaling-up energy storage production and limiting solar module production as it shifts to U.S.-based manufacturing while growing its global project backlog, Oppenheimer thinks the company is positioned as a solution provider to both project developers and end-customers giving it increased flexibility for optimum value capture.

• VIRT Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Virtu Financial to $61 from $57 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm thinks Virtu is poised to put up "a BIG quarter" in Q1, with adjusted net trading income eclipsing $10M per day for the first time since the "meme stock" impact in Q1 2021. Virtu has been focused on growing its base of trading capital, which is now being deployed into a very constructive market making environment. Record quarterly volumes are expected across several asset classes and volatility in energy, precious metal, and commodity markets should be a significant tailwind for the company's Q1 results, Piper adds.
• TYRA Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Tyra Biosciences to $56 from $42 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares heading into the stock's two key 2026 data events for dabogratinib. First up will be initial three months CR data in IR-NMIBC, followed by six months AHV data from the safety sentinel cohort in achondroplasia. The firm believes the efficacy bars are clearly defined and achievable. Piper knows from erdafitinib and infigratinib that FGFR3 inhibition works in these indications, and believes these readouts will show that dabo's selectivity for FGFR3 means it can hit the efficacy bars safely, with a clean safety profile that allows for chronic dosing.

• TATT Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann raised the firm's price target on TAT Technologies to $60 from $47 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q4 was "another clean operating quarter, which extends the company's streak of delivering revenue growth and margin expansion to eight quarters in a row," the analyst tells investors in an earnings recap.
• BSX Stifel analyst Rick Wise lowered the firm's price target on Boston Scientific to $90 from $110 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the firm surveyed 60 physicians to help quantify CHAMPION-AF clinician expectations and the potential impact on LAAC growth ahead of the late breaking CHAMPION-AF left-atrial-appendage-closure clinical trial results that are set to read-out at the American College of Cardiology on March 28.

• FDX UBS raised the firm's price target on FedEx to $446 from $412 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. FedEx delivered a strong Q3 EPS with 10% revenue growth in FEC and 70 bps of year-over-year margin expansion, signaling solid operating momentum, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite incremental Q4 headwinds and implied EPS guidance of $5.40-$6.20, the setup appears conservative relative to prior beats, supporting expectations for continued growth and a positive stock reaction, the firm says.

• ATR Wells Fargo upgraded AptarGroup to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $144, up from $133. The firm says the share price reaction relating to the Iran conflict has been "disproportionate" across the packaging sector. Wells prefers companies with low leverage, high U.S concentration, and "defensive" production exposures. The analyst adjusted ratings in the group. AptarGroup offers a "best-in-class" balance sheet and heavy exposure to the "defensive" pharma sector, which is key during periods of uncertainty, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• OI Wells Fargo downgraded O-I Glass to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $13, down from $18. The firm says the share price reaction relating to the Iran conflict has been "disproportionate" across the packaging sector. Wells prefers companies with low leverage, high U.S concentration, and "defensive" production exposures. The analyst adjusted ratings in the group, saying the new macro conditions balance stock risk/reward profiles.
• FDX Wells Fargo analyst Christian Wetherbee raised the firm's price target on FedEx to $450 from $430 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Coming off its callback, the firm is impressed with the strength in FEC, as volume/price/ margins were good. Wells is increasing its estimates and expects consensus to better calibrate the upside opportunity beyond 2026.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for January

• Earnings After the Close: AGBK BNGO PPHC

• RSA Conference 2026, 3/23-3/25 in San Francisco, CA
• TD Cowen 2nd Annual Distinctive Industrials and Infrastructure Services Conference, 3/23-3/24, in Toronto

• 8:30 AM ET                   Non-farm Productivity for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q4
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, March-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, March-flash
• 10:00 AM ET                 Richmond Fed Index for March
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ABSI AIR BRZE BZAI FGI GME GUTS ITRG KBH BOAH PAYS TELA VELO WOR YQ

• RBC Capital Global Ophthalmology Conference, 3/24-3/25 (virtual)
• Roth 38th Annual ROTH Conference, 3/22-3/24, in Dana Point, CA
• RSA Conference 2026, 3/23-3/25 in San Francisco, CA
• TD Cowen 2nd Annual Distinctive Industrials and Infrastructure Services Conference, 3/23-3/24, in Toronto

• 8:30 AM ET                   Current Account for Q4
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for February
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for February
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AAPG BYND CELC CTSO DERM EPAC FUL HIT JEF KRMN MCHX MLKN NDLS PGEN WS WYY

• RSA Conference 2026, 3/23-3/25 in San Francisco, CA

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for March

• Earnings After the Close: AGX BTGO CV LSF OXM SLND VERI WKSP WPRT XOS

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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