Early Look

Thursday, July 2, 2026

On the heels of a few nice gains, investors started the new month in a more cautious mood and took some profits yesterday.  Today’s payrolls data likely will be the determining factor in the next move ahead of a long holiday weekend as concerns linger around the prospect of Fed hikes.  Is good news good news or is it bad? Earnings get going in couple weeks, though, and growth should be solid and that would be good news either way.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index slid 1,741.81 to 68,733.15, the Shanghai Index lost 83.54 to 4,028.90 and the Hang Seng Index gained 174.01 to 23,055.03.  In Europe, the German DAX is adding 139.82 to 25,178.90 while the FTSE 100 is higher by 51.17 to 10,529.56 and the CAC is up 65.58 at 8,402.87.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 12.98 points, or 0.02%, to 52,306.22
• The Nasdaq Composite lost 173.69 points, or 0.66%, to 26040.03
• The Russell 2000 Index declined 2.07 points, or 0.07% to 3,022.30

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM EST                 Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for May
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM EST                 Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Earnings After the Close: None

• In consumer products, WHR announced in an SEC filing they would 'gradually' phase out Supsa manufacturing facility in Mexico. BSET shares fell in AHs trading after reporting Q2 earnings: EPS $0.24 beat est $0.20 and Sales $83.753M beat est $83.300M.

• In energy, TEN announced second LNG carrier order in Hyundai Heavy Industries; to be delivered in July 2026 in South Korea with $3.5B in minimum secured revenues. TTE divests 8.5% interest in Marjoram gas field to Inpex for $350M.
• In industrials, CMCO announces CFO transition; appoints John R. Linker as CFO effective July 1, 2026; reaffirms fiscal year 2027 guidance. REZI announces board approves ADI spin-off, sets August 3 distribution under ticker 'ADIG'; shareholders of record expected to receive one share of ADI common stock for every two shares of Resideo common stock owned. QXO incurs $3B incremental term loan facility per SEC filing. KODK files to offer up to 4.43M shares of common stock by selling shareholders per SEC filing. GBX shares were slightly lower last night after reporting Q3 earnings: EPS $0.60 misses est $0.62 and Sales $576.500M misses est $612.694M.
  CLF Wins A Maximum $400M Indefinite-Delivery/Indefinite-Quantity Contract For Grain Oriented Electrical Steel
• In water services and utilities, AWK’s Missouri American Water unit seeks MoPSC approval for higher rates to fund about $1.6B in system investments between 2025 and 2028.
• In agriculture, BAYRY will consolidate U.S. glyphosate business Into distinct entity operating as Ruveon; Reinforces commitment to delivering trusted Roundup® brands and glyphosate products and services to U.S. customers. QXL demonstrates first all-optical HRG architecture for advanced inertial sensing.
• In mining, LEU signs contract with Department of Energy for $900M award.
• In aerospace, AVAV shares moved higher in AHs following announcement hey won a $500M firm-fixed-price contract for the procurement of commercial counter-unmanned aerial systems and counter small-unmanned aerial systems capabilities; Army Contracting Command is the contracting activity.
  
  

• In services, FC sharers fell by 20% in AHs trading following reporting Q3 earnings: EPS $0.27 misses est $0.28 and Sales $67.807M Miss est $68.334M and cut its FY26 sales guidance with its midpoint below estimates. VEON partners with MC to expand financial services across Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan.
• In real estate, STRS announced initial liquidating distribution of $5.00 per share to stockholders and intention to voluntarily delist from Nasdaq and deregister with SEC. GOOD announces that they have executed a 10-year lease with Ohio Life Sciences. CSGP announces launch of costar platform in france targeting €300b commercial real estate market.

• In healthcare services, GRDN acquires Wellness Concepts; terms not disclosed. ENSG purchases two skilled nursing facilities in Texas; terms not disclosed,
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• In software and hardware, AAPL is said to be preparing a new iPad Pro, redesigned entry-level MacBook Pro per Bloomberg. SYM buys private ARMS Innovations as it expands from warehouse automation to AI-powered operational intelligence; terms not disclosed. CTSH and Domyn Announce Strategic Partnership to Deliver Sovereign AI Solutions Across EMEA.
• In internet, GOOGL shares are lower in pre-market trading following last night’s: The European Union’s top court has upheld the record antitrust fine of $4.67 billion levied on Alphabet Inc.‘s Google over alleged anti-competitive practices.

In AI, the FT reports that OpenAI is discussing giving U.S. government 5% stake.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, June 26, 2026

U.S. stocks are mixed again as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for weekly declines as chipmakers came under renewed selling pressure after a stellar run this quarter, with investors questioning high valuations and the repercussions of massive AI spending by companies. This morning the SPY traded below its 50dma support while the QQQs near its 50dma around $702.75 but have since bounced notably off lows. AI supply chain/semiconductors slipped after the New York Times reported that OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its IPO until 2027 from a prior Q3/Q4 2026 target amid continued heavy spending, rising competition, and a less supportive equity backdrop, raising fresh questions around the pace of AI infrastructure investment. Separately, a report in The Information said OpenAI will reportedly roll out GPT-5.6 in phases, with select customers receiving early access, following requests from Washington amid growing scrutiny of advanced AI model releases. Other concerns remain inflation and rate hikes after data Thursday showed U.S. inflation (PCE) rose above 4% in May for the first time in three years, boosted by higher energy prices, keeping the possibility of a Fed rate hike alive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average comes into the day at all-time highs 9extending gains early), boosted lately by shares of CAT, financials and healthcare while Smallcaps have held up very well. Overnight, President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz was open and that the US would buy wheat, corn and soybeans with Iranian funds, but the bounce was short-lived as Asian markets tumbled (Nikkie, Shanghai, Kospi) as tech sentiment soured. Bitcoin slips back below $60,000 this week as U.S. stock futures fall driven by losses in tech stocks (Bitcoin reached a 21-month low of $58,075 Thursday).

A key item today, The FTSE Russell indices will undergo their semi-annual rebalancing after markets close today. The rebalancing will impact $6 trillion of active and passive assets under management benchmarked to the major Russell indices, according to strategists at JPMorgan Asset Management. The event will result in lots of companies moving between indexes. Most notably, SpaceX is among those set to be added to the Russell 1000. Updated indices will go live Monday. Overall, 43 companies are expected to graduate from the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks to the Russell 1000 large-cap index.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final June 4.6% vs prelim 4.6% and final May 4.8% while 5-year inflation outlook final June 3.3% vs prelim 3.4% and final May 3.9%.

• In Chemicals: German chemicals group Evonik Industries (EVKIY) raised its full-year profit outlook after posting Q2 results that beat expectation; now sees 2026 adj EBITDA between EU2.0B ($2.28B) and EU2.2B, up from a previously forecast range of EU1.7B-2B; said Q2 adj EBITDA is expected to come in at between EU600M-650M, above views of about EU567M, driven by higher volumes and prices as well as ongoing cost cuts. Shares of US related comps include DD, EMN, ASH, HUN, CBT. FUL was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan as the firm thinks lower oil prices and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are likely to minimize or lower H.B. Fuller's raw material cost pressure in 2027.
• In Aerospace: SPCX told investors that it plans to launch a new Starlink mobile service for U.S. consumers, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. SpaceX president and COO Gwynne Shotwell told investors during an IPO roadshow that the group was considering launching a Starlink retail product. The company could build its own terrestrial US mobile network. The move would require Starlink to sell mobile contracts to individual customers. RKLB shares bounced after NASA selected Rocket Lab to provide the launch service for both the agency’s PolSIR (Polarized Submillimeter Ice-cloud Radiometer) and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-2 (TSIS-2) missions.

• APOG +14%; on results as Q1 EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.45 and revs fell -1% y/y to $342.68M but topped ests $333.8M; reaffirmed fiscal 2027expectce and expects Kalwall acquisition to close in July; said overall net sales declined due to lower volume, with higher material and freight costs impacting margins.
• CROX +5%; was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and raised to $150 saying its North America DTC inflected to MSD in Q126 (best since Q224), and compares ease remainder of the year, Heydude is seeing green shoots in DTC, EPS estimates are upwardly biased.
• FCEL +20%; was upgraded to Buy at Jefferies with $24 tgt after Fit Energy data center deal saying the setup has materially shifted from "show me" to executing on visible backlog, while a deep valuation discount to BE creates an asymmetric entry point.
• INFQ +7%; initiated at Outperform and $20 tgt at Wedbush saying it is the only company commercializing the entire neutral-atom stack across Computing, sensing, and software from one shared technology core, and the only publicly traded neutral-atom pure-play.
• RKLB +4%; shares bounced after NASA selected Rocket Lab to provide the launch service for both the agency’s PolSIR (Polarized Submillimeter Ice-cloud Radiometer) and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-2 (TSIS-2) missions.

• CAPR -13%; after the U.S. FDA scheduled an advisory committee meeting to discuss the company’s marketing application for Deramiocel, a treatment targeting Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
• MSTR -2%; on track for its lowest level in more than two years. The stock slumped about 8% Thursday and comes into Friday with a seven-day losing streak, its worst seven-day losing streak since November 2022.
• OMER -18%; shares fell after saying the European Medicines Agency's key panel issued a negative opinion on its application for its drug narsoplimab to treat transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA); OMER to request a re-examination of the opinion and review by an independent expert group.
• ON -19%; agreed to be acquire SYNA in an all-stock transaction, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $7B; SYNA shareholders to receive 1.35 shares of onsemi for each Synaptics share held.
• SFTBY -8%; shares of Softbank tumbled following NYT report that OpenAI is considering pushing its highly anticipated public debut into next year; potential postponement threatens to delay a massive liquidity event for the company's major financial backers.

Closing Recap

Thursday, July 02, 2026

Investors were cautious on the first day of July as they awaited the June payrolls data and another opportunity to attempt to determine the Fed’s next move.  Futures eased slightly overnight ahead of the release but bad news was good news for Fed watchers as the 57k nonfarm payrolls number came in well below the 113k forecast and nowhere close to the whisper number of 138k.  Futures popped back to green on the release as some rate-hike fears may have been calmed for now.

By mid-morning, stocks had split with the S&P higher and Nasdaq retreating again.  Breadth favored advancers by 2:1 as small caps were mixed versus large caps with IWM (-0.06%) versus SPY (+0.32%) and QQQ (-0.51%).  SPY breadth favored advancers by 19:7, while QQQ breadth favored advancers by 7:4 despite the index lagging.  On a sector basis, Health Care (+2.06%), Energy (+1.15%) and Consumer Staples (+1.09%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Communications (-0.31%), Technology (-0.70%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.83%) paced the underperformers with 8 sectors gaining versus 3 declining.

In sentiment today, the weekly bull-bear spread was -10.9% versus +8.8% last week with bulls falling from 44.9% to 31.4%, while bears rose from 36.1% to 42.3%.  Today’s Fear & Greed Index remained firmly in the Fear category at 37/100 versus last week’s 24 (Extreme Fear) and still well below last month’s 56 (Greed).

The afternoon brought more selling with the Nasdaq taking the much larger hit but the S&P also faded to modest losses.  Late headlines from META indicating ai agent development hasn’t accelerated in the way they expected over the past four months and that the company’s 2026 reorganization wasn’t as clean as it could have been only accelerated stocks to the downside.  Hope everyone has a safe and celebratory 4^th!

• Private Payrolls for June 49k versus 107k forecast and 120k prior.
• Manufacturing Payrolls for June 3k versus 3k forecast and 7k prior.
• Unemployment Rate for June 4.2% versus 4.3% forecast and 4.3% prior.
• Average Hourly Earnings M/M for June 0.3% versus 0.3% forecast and 0.3% prior.
• Weekly Jobless Claims 215k versus 218k forecast and 215k prior.
• Continuing Claims 1.814M versus 1.82M forecast and 1.821M prior.
• Factory Orders M/M for May -1.3% versus -1.8% forecast and -5.3% prior.
• Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• WTI crude futures continued to pull back overnight as expectations ramp for higher Hormuz traffic and headlines indicated the next round of US/Iran negotiations will occur July 18^th. Later headlines on a stalemate regarding reopening Hormuz carried futures higher, eventually settling +$0.11/bbl, or +0.16%, at $68.69.  

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

• DLTR announced a $2.5B share repurchase authorization. COTY announced organizational changes to advance Coty.Curated strategy which integrates prestige R&D, sustainability, and supply chain under Graeme Carter. ONON shares moved higher after JPM resumed coverage with an Overweight rating. Barron’s: PM’s “Safer Products Are Winning with Regulators. They’ll Win with Investors Too.”
• Per an SEC filing: Cumberland Farms announces US initial public offering of ordinary shares. Per another SEC filing: Jersey Mike's Subs - announces initial public offering of Class A common stock with symbol JMKEis majority owned by BX Citi sees aluminum prices bottoming over the coming month before recovering towards $3,300-3,500/t between September and December (AA ).
• GPC shares spiked after Bloomberg said the company has reportedly received interest from ORLY regarding a potential acquisition of its automotive unit, best known as NAPA.

Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:

• China's CPCA reports TSLA sold 89,091 vehicles made in China in June, +24.4% year-over-year. RIVN shares jumped after reporting Q2 production 12,613 vehicles, deliveries 12,194 vehicles vs consensus estimate 10,518 vehicles & raises FY delivery guidance to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles from 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles earlier.
• TSLA shares inched higher after reporting Q2 total production of 451,758 units and Q2 total deliveries 480,126 units, consensus estimate was 402,776 units.
• F shares were roughly unchanged after reporting Q2 U.S. total EV sales 62,909 units, Q2 U.S. sales -10% due to model phase-outs & 69% drop in daily rental sales; Ford Q2 U.S. total vehicle sales 549,200 units.

Energy

• SBR announces monthly cash distribution for July 2026. PBA announces positive final investment decision on the Greenlight Electricity Centre.

Financials

Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:

• JPM to join gulf banks on $7B loan for Syrian projects. CME reports record June average daily volume and second-highest Q2 ever and record June adv of 30.6M contracts, up 19% YoY. OWL shares rose after firm keeps withdrawal limits even as redemption pressure; investors seek to pull out $4.7B from two Blue Owl funds per Reuters.
• Hunterbrook writes that they are short STEP: “Due to an ill-timed contract, StepStone must buy out the profits interests tied to that retail arm held by CH Equity Partners LLC, an entity controlled by SPW executives.”
• JBAXY Bloomberg says Julius Baer loosens client ban as Benko clean-up nears end.

Bitcoin, FinTech, Payments:

• Crypto stocks gained as Bitcoin hit one-week highs (BTC ).

Insurance & Services:

• APG completes the acquisition of Wtech Fire Group and raises fy2026 net revenue outlook to $8.66B-$8.86B.

REITs:

• FMCC reports US 30-yr fixed-rate mortgage averages 6.43% in July's 2nd week vs 6.49% prior week.

Healthcare

Biotech & Pharma:

• ABVX shares were higher after announcing full exercise of underwriters’ option to purchase additional ADSS, bringing gross proceeds of offering to $920M. HCM shares lifted after announcing NMPA approval for orpathys® for the treatment of gastric cancer patients with met amplification. ARCT shares gained following strategic collaboration with TMO to advance arct-032 for cystic fibrosis. TENX shares advanced after announcing late-breaking presentation of level clinical trial data at ESC Congress 2026. VRTX announced US FDA approval for expanded use of casGEVy® for the treatment of people ages 2 years and older with sickle cell disease or transfusion-dependent Beta thalassemia.
• AZN shares have moved higher after the company announced it entered into a strategic collaboration agreement with private Abbisko Therapeutics to jointly advance the clinical development of a novel IO-TKI combination therapy for non-small cell lung cancer. The company and private CSPC Pharmaceutical Group entered into an agreement to use the siRNA drug discovery platform to develop novel small nucleic acid drug candidates.

Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:

• USPH announces the acquisition of a twelve-clinic physical therapy practice. BFLY expands its handheld ultrasound availability into Brazil. CLRO shares soared after announcing to acquire VANI’s medical subsidiary Cortigent for 12.5m shares of CLRO worth ~$40.4m; Clearone to file s-1 seeking to raise $10m-$15m.
• Shares of healthcare stocks (THC ) were higher today after a favorable CMS proposal last night: CMS Acts to Strengthen Care Quality, Cut Drug Costs, and Slash Out-of-Pocket Expenses for Medicare Beneficiaries.
• FDA Classifies PODD’s Omnipod Pods Recall As Class I Due To Serious Injury Risk; Insulet Reports 24 Serious Injuries, No Deaths from Omnipod Pods Issue as of May 2.

Industrials & Materials

Transports

• Goldman Sachs wrote positively on airline names as the price of fuel continues to come down (BA, DAL, UAL).Three NAT vessels resume international operations after passing Hormuz Strait.

Aerospace & Defense

• Last night, LMT was awarded a $347.5M cost-plus-incentive-fee contract for development, fabrication and testing improvements to prototype air and missile defense systems. NATO to announce plans to purchase SAABY Globaleye surveillance jets at next week's Summit, sources note. KTOS receives approximately $36M air Defense system single award contract.
• PL shares rose after the company and Isar Aerospace partner to launch first German-built satellite-rocket mission. SWMR, Tekmara and Florida International University explore autonomous drone swarms for coastal restoration and environmental monitoring. EADSY expects to deliver around 350 airplanes in the first half of 2026.

Materials, Metals & Mining

• LNN shares gained today after Q3 results beat estimates. AEM shares fell after reporting rock mass movement at Barnat open pit on July 1, 2026, and suspends mining operations at Barnat open pit; expects Q2 2026 production of about 845,000 ounces of gold. HBM receives regulatory approval to further increase mill throughput at its Constancia mine in Peru.
• BHP and CPPKF sign definitive San Manuel agreement; deal for Faraday’s 100% acquisition of bhp’s San Manuel property in Arizona, USA. CAT to invest in the future of Texas' manufacturing workforce; launches Texas workforce initiative as part of $100M five-year program.

Technology

Internet, Media & Telecom

• GOOGL shares were lower after losing EU top court fight over €4.1b Android fine. SURG shares are sharply higher after the company announced last night, they had entered into an amendment to the agreement with T to eliminate the $50M minimum spend commitment. AT&T agreed to forgive the $10.3M of previously billed minimum commitment charges more than actual usage. JBL files for mixed shelf offering; size not disclosed per SEC filing.
• DIS’s Disney+ and Anime Ltd. announce U.K. and France streaming deal for award-winning anime slate. META is rolling out a new app called Pocket with a social feed of vibe-coded mini games per Business Insider. Bloomberg reports that AMZN to begin internet service this year after latest satellite launch.
  
  

Hardware & Software movers:

• Blomberg reported that SAP will cut back on hiring and travel to save costs as it devotes more resources to developing AI technologies and fending off new competitors. Bloomberg reported that SFTBY and its telecom unit will start renting AI computing resources to US companies next fiscal year in a bid to capitalize on the company's growing pipeline of data center projects.
• Shares of PLTR advanced following an upgrade to Buy at DA Davidson. MSFT announces the creation of 6,000-worker unit to help clients with AI called Microsoft Frontier; investing $2.5B to launch it.
• In datacenters, FPS’s 29.1M share Secondary is priced at $49.00. IREN announced the appointment of Kambiz Aghili as Chief Product Officer and Michael Nudelman as Chief Development Officer. AKAM completes acquisition of secure enterprise browser provider Layerx. BX's QTS is walking away from plans to build its portion of a data center campus in Virginia, handing a win to residents who fought for years to topple the project per Bloomberg.
• The Information reported that MSFT is planning to merge its consumer and enterprise Copilot chatbots in August with Copilot exec Jacob Andreou cutting low-value Copilot features.

Semiconductors & AI:

• TrendForce reported that Sk Hynix reportedly removes price cap in memory long-term agreements, diverging from MU. MU shares rebounded a tad from a multi-day selloff partially helped by praise from Trump over Micron’s donation to the Trump Accounts.
• The Information reported that Anthropic in talks with SSNLF to manufacture custom AI chips.
  Trump administration and Anthropic have not discussed the government taking stakes in the firm, source familiar with the matter notes.
• Research boutique SemiAnalysis published a positive piece stating INTC’s EMIB‑T roadmap shows aggressive bump‑pitch scaling and larger Bridge capabilities, positioning it as a credible alternative to TSMs CoWoS for AI packages.
• ElevenLabs has held early talks with investors to let employees sell shares in a secondary offering that would value the artificial intelligence startup at roughly $22 billion, according to people familiar with the matter per Bloomberg.
• META CEO Mark Zuckerberg notes in internal town hall that AI agent development over the last four months hasn't 'accelerated in the way we expected' according to Reuters.
• TSLA caps employee Ai spend at $200/week per The Information.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, July 2, 2026

ALEMBIC GLOBAL

• DOW Alembic Global analyst Hassan Ahmed lowered the firm's price target on Dow Inc. to $45 from $50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.

BARCLAYS

• DAR Barclays analyst Theresa Chen raised the firm's price target on Darling Ingredients to $62 from $58 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm sees a "constructive" Q2 backdrop for the company. Darling's Diamond Green Diesel unit will likely continue to benefit from the "supportive" policy environment along with solid utilization and capture tailwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• STZ Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $139 from $170 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the fiscal Q1 report. It views Constellation's guidance as reasonable but sees limited visibility.

BENCHMARK

• DDOG Benchmark analyst Yi Fu Lee raised the firm's price target on Datadog to a "Street-high" $330 from $260 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Execution continues on the technology product-led motion front, as confirmed by detailed customer and partner ecosystem on the ground checks at Datadog that were "excellent," the analyst tells investors. The firm concludes that Datadog is competitively well positioned against peer leaders of the observability platform space.

BERNSTEIN

• TSN Bernstein analyst Alexia Howard lowered the firm's price target on Tyson Foods to $63 from $72 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. Since last quarter's preview, the U.S. cattle supply has remained under pressure as the decline in headcount continues and the spread of New World screwworms keeps the borders closed, the firm says. Bernstein believes we may be seeing the first green shoots of herd rebuilding as heifer slaughter rates have slightly lowered, but remain above the threshold for a definitive rebuild cycle. The firm expects the Beef business to remain unprofitable and for segment margins to decline even further in the second half of 2026.

BOFA

• STZ BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $145 from $152 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm raised its FY27 EPS estimate to $11.70 from $11.57, primarily reflecting the Q1 EPS beat, but adds that it thinks the shipment build in Q1 is likely to reverse over the remainder of the fiscal year. The stock is "likely stuck in limbo until topline trends reaccelerate," the analyst tells investors.
• PPC BofA analyst Peter Galbo lowered the firm's price target on Pilgrim's Pride to $30 from $37 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates for the June quarter for protein producers to account for the latest USDA and third-party data.
• CAKE BofA analyst Sara Senatore raised the firm's price target on Cheesecake Factory to $79 from $66 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm applies a higher relative multiple to reflect casual dining restaurant peer multiple expansion.

CITI

• DD Citi analyst Patrick Cunningham raised the firm's price target on DuPont to $170 from $168 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the Q2 report. The firm believes easing Middle East tensions and lower crude prices will drive price/cost for DuPont.

GOLDMAN SACHS

• AAL Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine O'Brien raised the firm's price target on American Airlines to $15 from $10 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm increased estimates in the airlines group citing stronger revenue trends and lower fuel prices. Strong demand momentum at the start of the year has continued despite significant fare increases beginning in March to offset higher fuel prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ALGT Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine O'Brien raised the firm's price target on Allegiant Travel to $142 from $125 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased estimates in the airlines group citing stronger revenue trends and lower fuel prices. Strong demand momentum at the start of the year has continued despite significant fare increases beginning in March to offset higher fuel prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ALK Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine O'Brien raised the firm's price target on Alaska Air to $69 from $58 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased estimates in the airlines group citing stronger revenue trends and lower fuel prices. Strong demand momentum at the start of the year has continued despite significant fare increases beginning in March to offset higher fuel prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• DAL Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine O'Brien raised the firm's price target on Delta Air Lines to $116 from $80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased estimates in the airlines group citing stronger revenue trends and lower fuel prices. Strong demand momentum at the start of the year has continued despite significant fare increases beginning in March to offset higher fuel prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• JBLU Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine O'Brien raised the firm's price target on JetBlue to $4.50 from $3.50 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm increased estimates in the airlines group citing stronger revenue trends and lower fuel prices. Strong demand momentum at the start of the year has continued despite significant fare increases beginning in March to offset higher fuel prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• UAL Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine O'Brien raised the firm's price target on United Airlines to $162 from $131 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased estimates in the airlines group citing stronger revenue trends and lower fuel prices. Strong demand momentum at the start of the year has continued despite significant fare increases beginning in March to offset higher fuel prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

HSBC

• ADBE HSBC analyst Stephen Bersey upgraded Adobe to Buy from Hold with a price target of $308, up from $282. The firm upgraded the shares after revaluating the company's risk associated with its AI-powered competitors. Adobe maintains strong revenue growth even though AI design tools were some of the first major AI applications available in the market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. HSBC believes the company's platform has "proved to be sticky" due to user workflow familiarity and new AI-powered features being embedded. As such, the firm thinks the market is overestimating the adverse impact of AI-based design tools on Adobe's business. The stock's reward now outweighs risks, contends HSBC.

JPMORGAN

• META JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth says Meta Platforms shares rallied 9% yesterday following a Bloomberg report indicating the company is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to its compute and models to third party customers. Meta is under pressure to monetize AI beyond advertising, and providing access to its infrastructure would generate incremental revenue and meaningful returns, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan estimates one gigawatt of capacity could generate $20B of annual revenue, and several dollars of earnings per share. This would be "highly additive to Meta's current AI product efforts," the firm contends. However, JPMorgan would much prefer Meta develop core AI products, leverage them over its base of 4B users, and require "massive" compute for its own inference rather than selling access to its infrastructure. "What this means for forward capex is unclear," it says. JPMorgan keeps a Neutral rating on Meta shares.
• ARCC JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane lowered the firm's price target on Ares Capital to $18.50 from $19 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the business development company group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. JPMorgan remains cautious on the space citing credit headwinds, net asset value marks, and dividend coverage. "While we expect a steadier tone, we would not characterize the backdrop as an all-clear," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MFIC JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane lowered the firm's price target on MidCap Financial to $9.50 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the business development company group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. JPMorgan remains cautious on the space citing credit headwinds, net asset value marks, and dividend coverage. "While we expect a steadier tone, we would not characterize the backdrop as an all-clear," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TSLX JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane lowered the firm's price target on Sixth Street to $16.50 from $17.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the business development company group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. JPMorgan remains cautious on the space citing credit headwinds, net asset value marks, and dividend coverage. "While we expect a steadier tone, we would not characterize the backdrop as an all-clear," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

KEYBANC

• MSM KeyBanc analyst Ken Newman raised the firm's price target on MSC Industrial to $145 from $132 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Following MSC's Q3 results, the firm is raising its FY26 and FY27 estimates, and introducing new FY28 estimates. KeyBanc thinks MSC remains in the early innings of benefiting from a cyclical rebound in organic volumes while simultaneously leveraging actions to streamline its cost structure. As a result, it views MSC as having one of the best "coiled springs" in the firm's distribution coverage, and sees support for bull case EPS power of about $8/share in FY28 should cycle conditions continue to ramp.

MORGAN STANLEY

• STZ Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $158 from $183 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Constellation reported Q1 upside and a June beer depletion rebound, but left fiscal year guidance unchanged, notes the analyst, who cites long-term industry challenges for the firm's unchanged Equal Weight rating.
• WLK Morgan Stanley analyst Vincent Andrews lowered the firm's price target on Westlake to $92 from $106 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates for Westlake ahead of the company's Q2 report.

PIPER SANDLER

• ABR Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love lowered the firm's price target on Arbor Realty to $5.50 from $8 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The mortgage environment has remained challenging, which is leading the firm to favor agency focused names going into the quarter versus the originators. 30-year mortgage rates remain elevated in the 6.50% range and Piper believes there will be little in the way of positive news on the mortgage origination front from management teams.
• NLY Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love raised the firm's price target on Annaly Capital to $25 from $24.50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The mortgage environment has remained challenging, which is leading the firm to favor agency focused names going into the quarter versus the originators. 30-year mortgage rates remain elevated in the 6.50% range and Piper believes there will be little in the way of positive news on the mortgage origination front from management teams.
• PFSI Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love lowered the firm's price target on PennyMac Financial to $106 from $112 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The mortgage environment has remained challenging, which is leading the firm to favor agency focused names going into the quarter versus the originators. 30-year mortgage rates remain elevated in the 6.50% range and Piper believes there will be little in the way of positive news on the mortgage origination front from management teams.
• RWT Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love lowered the firm's price target on Redwood Trust to $5.50 from $6.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The mortgage environment has remained challenging, which is leading the firm to favor agency focused names going into the quarter versus the originators. 30-year mortgage rates remain elevated in the 6.50% range and Piper believes there will be little in the way of positive news on the mortgage origination front from management teams.

ROTH CAPITAL

• FC Roth Capital analyst Jeff Martin raised the firm's price target on Franklin Covey to $25 from $22 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Franklin Covey is expected to return to growth in FY27, driven by strong client retention, accelerating services attachment to subscription sales, and continued client expansion under a revised go-to-market strategy, with North America Enterprise strength seen as the primary driver even if near-term guidance reductions weigh on the share price, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

TD COWEN

• SHEL TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman lowered the firm's price target on Shell to $107 from $110 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the oil majors space as part of a Q2 earnings preview. TD sees "pockets of opportunity" in the sector following the "rapid correction" in crude prices and equities. The firm favors Shell, Chevron and TotalEnergies into earnings season.
• AAL TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald raised the firm's price target on American Airlines to $24 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the airlines space as part of a Q2 earnings preview. TD remains "broadly constructive" on the stocks, assuming the industry hangs on to this year's price increases. Investors will likely need confirmation that the post-Labor Day price increases are holding and demand is still robust for shares to extend gains, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• LUV TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald raised the firm's price target on Southwest to $53 from $47 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the airlines space as part of a Q2 earnings preview. TD remains "broadly constructive" on the stocks, assuming the industry hangs on to this year's price increases. Investors will likely need confirmation that the post-Labor Day price increases are holding and demand is still robust for shares to extend gains, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BKR TD Cowen analyst Marc Bianchi raised the firm's price target on Baker Hughes to $77 from $75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes its base OFSE and IET businesses remain largely on track. IET orders are likely down from a strong 1Q, but still pacing in line or above the annual guidance midpoint.
• GIS TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow raised the firm's price target on General Mills to $32 from $31 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following its Q4 earnings beat and in-line guidance for FY2027. Cowen attributes the out-sized reaction in the shares to short covering and an over-abundance of pessimism from the buy-side ahead of the print rather than investors fundamentally turning positive.

TRUIST

• DE Truist analyst Jamie Cook raised the firm's price target on Deere to $812 from $759 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted estimates and targets in the machinery, infrastructure services, and multi-industry group as part of a Q2 preview. Truist sees positive setup for Q2 earnings reports across the sector. Demand trends remain strong across the group, with continued support from secular growth tailwinds in power, data center, aerospace and defense, and infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• URI Truist analyst Jamie Cook raised the firm's price target on United Rentals to $1,421 from $1,209 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted estimates and targets in the machinery, infrastructure services, and multi-industry group as part of a Q2 preview. Truist sees positive setup for Q2 earnings reports across the sector. Demand trends remain strong across the group, with continued support from secular growth tailwinds in power, data center, aerospace and defense, and infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• J Truist analyst Jamie Cook lowered the firm's price target on Jacobs to $149 from $150 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted estimates and targets in the machinery, infrastructure services, and multi-industry group as part of a Q2 preview. Truist sees positive setup for Q2 earnings reports across the sector. Demand trends remain strong across the group, with continued support from secular growth tailwinds in power, data center, aerospace and defense, and infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PH Truist analyst Jamie Cook raised the firm's price target on Parker-Hannifin to $1,269 from $1,147 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted estimates and targets in the machinery, infrastructure services, and multi-industry group as part of a Q2 preview. Truist sees positive setup for Q2 earnings reports across the sector. Demand trends remain strong across the group, with continued support from secular growth tailwinds in power, data center, aerospace and defense, and infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• AME Truist analyst Jamie Cook raised the firm's price target on Ametek to $303 from $275 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted estimates and targets in the machinery, infrastructure services, and multi-industry group as part of a Q2 preview. Truist sees positive setup for Q2 earnings reports across the sector. Demand trends remain strong across the group, with continued support from secular growth tailwinds in power, data center, aerospace and defense, and infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• CGNX Truist analyst Jamie Cook raised the firm's price target on Cognex to $71 from $61 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted estimates and targets in the machinery, infrastructure services, and multi-industry group as part of a Q2 preview. Truist sees positive setup for Q2 earnings reports across the sector. Demand trends remain strong across the group, with continued support from secular growth tailwinds in power, data center, aerospace and defense, and infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• OMF Truist analyst Arren Cyganovich lowered the firm's price target on OneMain to $70 from $73 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Truist continues to expect credit to improve in the second half of 2026 as the remaining pre-tightening personal loans roll off, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

UBS

• CRNX UBS analyst Ashwani Verma initiated coverage of Crinetics with a Buy rating and $55 price target. The stock's 44% pullback since mid-January provides an attractive entry point, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Crinetics has "multiple catalysts from potentially best-in-disease pipeline drugs with high likelihood of success." UBS has the most conviction in the Phase 3 atumelnant for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, and models peak sales of $2.0B.
• DPZ UBS analyst Dennis Geiger lowered the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza to $375 from $425 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Domino's Pizza offers an attractive risk/reward profile, with opportunities to improve U.S. sales and continue gaining market share despite macro and promotional pressures, as consumer survey data points to strong brand affinity and value perception that could support better sales growth over time, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

WELLS FARGO

• META Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski raised the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $767 from $765 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees another quarter of robust ad growth and an in-line Q3 revenue guide. Wells expects reiteration of intention to spend aggressively on capacity for model and applications efforts, while likely framing opportunity to lease excess capacity. Further, the firm sees an improving second half of the year catalyst path.
• GIS Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey raised the firm's price target on General Mills to $33 from $30 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm notes General Mills bounced off lows as EPS re-calibration proved better vs feared, logical as inflation prospects have improved in most recent weeks. With share improvement is factored in guidance, share improvement is thus key, Wells argues.

WOLFE RESEARCH

• CVX Wolfe Research analyst Doug Leggate upgraded Chevron to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $210 price target.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: AVAV CNXC

• China Composite PMI
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Prices M/M for April
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20-City index for April
• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 JOLTs Job openings for May
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Services for June
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: NKE PRGS STZ

• Goldman Sachs Digital Assets Conference, 6/30, in London

• 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for June
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for May
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BSET FC GBX

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM EST                 Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for May
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM EST                 Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Earnings After the Close: None

Friday July 3^rd

• U.S. stock markets are closed in observance of Independence Day

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