Early Look

Friday, October 16, 2026

U.S. stock futures are mixed after a strong rebound on Thursday, as technology stocks looked to extend their recovery after a difficult week. S&P futures are up/Nasdaq futures down slightly after rising yesterday as a pullback in artificial intelligence-related stocks has weighed on the broader market this week due to concerns of higher borrowing costs amid surging Treasury yields. However, yields tumbled on Thursday despite hotter PPI/CPI inflation data the last two days, giving a reprieve to the selling pressure seen the early part of the week. In tech news, Anthropic's anticipated $2T valuation ahead of a planned November IPO is facing investor resistance, with some reportedly considering a valuation closer to $1.5T, Reuters reported. Also, semis have been weak as the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell for an eighth consecutive session on Thursday, marking its longest such streak since September 2015. The fund closed at $514.71, down 12.6% from its Oct. 2 close of $588.90. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index advanced 898 points or 1.39% to 65,324 after tumbling more than -4% the day prior, the Shanghai Index gained 8 points to 3,716, and the Hang Seng Index climbed 124 points to 24,186. The Korean Kospi rose 2% or 17 points to 878. In Europe, the German DAX is up 285 points to 25,668, while the FTSE 100 is up 14 points to 10,854. The U.S.  dollar fell after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh-by saying very little-helped bolster market expectations that the Fed will stand pat at its October meeting. On the economic calendar, we get import and export prices and industrial production data.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 556.21 points, or 1.08%, to 52,177.69
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 20.16 points, or 0.08%, to 26,713.03
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 37.75 points, or 1.38% to 2,767.28

• International Seaways (INSW) has agreed to buy Bruton in a series of transactions that values its smaller peer at about $370 million. International Seaways said the acquisition would add Bruton's four very large crude carrier, or VLCC, vessels, to its fleet of roughly 70 vessels that provide seaborne transportation services for crude oil and refined petroleum products.
• JB Hunt (JBHT) Q2 EPS $1.82 vs. est. $1.86; Q3 revs rose 20% y/y to $3.68B vs. est. $3.59B; Q3 net income $172.4M vs. est. $184.9M; said rev increase primarily driven by an 8% increase in Intermodal loads, a 27% increase in Integrated Capacity Solutions revenue per load, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, and a 29% increase in Truckload revenue per load, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, partially offset by a 10% decline in Final Mile Services stops.
• JinkoSolar’s (JKS) Jiangxi Jinko estimates a preliminary unaudited net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB2.98B to RMB3.58B for the nine months ended September 30, 2026. Excluding extraordinary gains and losses, the subsidiary estimates a net loss of RMB3.81B to RMB4.41B for the period, according to the company’s October 16 announcement.

• Citizens Financial (CFG) Q3 EPS $1.41 vs. consensus $1.39 and revs $2.32B vs. est. $2.34B; raises quarterly dividend 13%, increases share buyback plan to $1.95B, an increase of $1.3B above the $650M of capacity currently remaining; Q3 net interest margin 3.19% vs. 3.00% last year.
• Cohen & Steers (CNS) Q3 adj EPS $0.89 vs est $0.89 on adj Revs $156.4Mm vs est $155.11Mm; AUM 95.9B; adj Outperform mgn 37.2%.
• Independent Bancorp (INDB) Q3 adj. EPS $1.90 vs. est. $1.84, +23% YoY and +12% QoQ; net interest Income $220.7Mm vs est $218.19Mm, +9% YoY and +5% QoQ; adj. NIM 3.76%, flat QoQ; provision for credit losses $6.5Mm vs. $38.5Mm YoY and $6.3Mm QoQ, including a specific reserve on an Office real estate loan; net charge-offs 0.02% annualized; nonperforming loans 0.68% of loans vs. 0.56% QoQ; loans $18.55B, +0.5% YoY and +0.9% QoQ.
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 adj EPS $0.67 vs est $0.68 on NII $1.154B vs est $1.128B and revs $1.914B vs est $1.888B; raises dividend to $0.15; Q3 Net interest income +19% y/y to $1.15B, primarily on higher average customer margin loans and credit balances; Q3 customer accounts grew 35% y/y to 5,576,000, while customer margin loans jumped 36% to $105.2B.
• Simmons First National (SFNC) Q3 adj. EPS $0.54 vs. est. $0.54, +17% YoY and +8% QoQ, excluding $0.22 of after-tax items tied to branch rightsizing, severance, professional services and accelerated prepaid expenses; net interest Income $204.0Mm vs est $205.67Mm, +9% YoY and +7% annualized QoQ; NIM 3.92%, +42 bps YoY and +8 bps QoQ; loan yield 6.20%, +5 bps QoQ; deposit cost 1.85%, -8 bps QoQ; provision for credit losses $12.2Mm vs. $17.4Mm QoQ and $15.2Mm YoY.
• Truist’s (TFC) Q3 EPS $1.16 vs. est. $1.21, and Q3 revs were $5.3B vs. est. $5.36B; securities losses totaled $1.45B; Q3 credit losses swung to a $253 million benefit from a provision a year earlier, driven by the RAC loan sale’s reserve release.

• MDxHealth (MDXH) preliminary Q3 revenue $22.7M, below consensus $24.55M saying experienced unexpected turnover within our sales force catalyzed by aggressive targeting from recruiters; suspends FY26 revenue guidance of $110M-$115M.
• Roche Holding (RHHBY) said it received approval from the U.S. FDA to market its Enspryng drug as a treatment for rare autoimmune condition thyroid eye disease in adults; said this marks the second indication in the U.S. for Enspryng, which was already authorized in 2020 for autoimmune disease neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder.

• The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell for an eighth consecutive session on Thursday, marking its longest such streak since September 2015. The fund closed at $514.71, down 12.6% from its Oct. 2 close of $588.90.
• Netflix (NFLX) said that former Disney (DIS) executive Peter Rice will succeed Bela Bajaria as chief content officer, effective Oct. 26. Rice most recently oversaw Disney’s cable channels, news programming, and coverage of major sporting events.
• Taiwan reportedly plans to raise billions of dollars to develop industrial parks in the US that would build a base for a comprehensive supply chain for Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) and other AI hardware makers in the country. The initiative is starting with a complex in Texas that would cost as much as $4B to build, Bloomberg reported, citing Taiwan’s Minister of Economic Affairs.
• Varonis (VRNS) to be acquired by Proofpoint in a $6.3B transaction as shareholders to receive $49.75 per share in cash; until deal closes, Proofpoint & Varonis will continue to operate as separate and Independent companies

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, October 16, 2026

U.S. stock markets open mixed on this Friday session, splitting along familiar lines: the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping as bank-earnings momentum builds following beats from regional banks, while the S&P 500 slips fractionally to 7,740 and the Nasdaq extends its slide as the chip-led selloff rolls into a ninth straight session for semiconductors (SMH) and fresh financing concerns around AI neoclouds including CoreWeave (CRWV) keep pressure on megacap tech. Helping underpin the broader tape, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks in Bangkok withheld any explicit rate signal. At one point yesterday, the Nasdaq was down -1.4% amid the Ai sell-off. Yet the tech-heavy index bounced off the lows and was able to eke out a 0.08% gain by the closing bell. iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) on track for what would be a 9th straight day of declines, though for now remains well above yesterday lows. Early gains in financials as beaten up banks GS, JPM, WFC, C, bouncing after earnings results this week pressured shares while precious metal miners (NEM, HL, AEM, CDE) rising as metals prices hold higher. Industrial metal stocks getting a boost after AA results lifted shares. Economic data showed September import prices rose +1.1% M/M (vs. +0.8% consensus) and export prices jumped +2.2% (vs. +1.0% consensus), while industrial production rose +0.7% M/M (vs. +0.4% consensus) with capacity utilization climbing to 76.9% (vs. 76.5% consensus) — keeping the inflation debate alive even as rate-hike bets recede.

Treasury yields are little changed on the data, with the 10-year up at 5.11% and the 30-year up 1.4 basis points to 5.443%; gold extends its advance, last up $39.70 to $4,209.80 an ounce as safe-haven demand persists, the dollar index slips -0.35% to 101.69, and bitcoin is roughly flat near $81,920. Materials (XLB +1.4%), Consumer Staples (XLP +1%) and Financials (XLF +0.9) pace nine of eleven S&P sectors higher, while Technology (XLK -1.25%) and Communication Services (XLC -0.6%) are the only two in the red as the AI/semis trade remains under pressure.

• Industrial output for September rose +0.7% vs. consensus +0.4% and vs Aug +0.1% as mining output +0.2% (aug +0.5%), Utilities output +3.5% (aug +1.5%). September capacity use rate 76.9% (consensus 76.5%) vs Aug 76.4% (previous 76.3%).

• Casino & Gaming sector: Deutsche Bank lowered estimates in Vegas/Macau preview, saying recent operating fundamentals across both Las Vegas and Macau have weakened, driving negative estimate revisions and a meaningful decline in share prices. The average share price decline across MGM, WYNN, and LVS over the last two months has been ~27% (vs. SPX -1%), while our 2026 and 2027 estimates have been revised lower by ~2.5% and ~4.0%, respectively. They continue to prefer the more stable Regional Gaming and Las Vegas Locals markets.
• Materials/Chemicals sector: XLB leads all S&P sectors as AA surges on a roughly 6% Q3 EBITDA beat and progress on its Alumina/Ali Group deal, GEF upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James; EMN downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan on narrowing propane-propylene spreads.
• Softlines/Apparel retail sector: group of analyst upgrades lifting names as CPRI upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James on a favorable turnaround setup, EAT also upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James on above-consensus comp expectations, BOOT initiated Buy at Needham.

• CPRI +3%; upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James as sees a favorable setup noting the bar is low given the stock's P/E of ~6x on estimates that it believes have room to move higher; views FQ2 is likely to exceed expectations for revenue and earnings.
• FMX +4%; upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with a $151 tgt on improved earnings momentum, more minority-friendly capital allocation and a 6% dividend yield.
• GEF +2%; upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James with a $90.00 PT on expectations for continued margin expansion from the company's self-help playbook and favorable Fiber price/cost trends.
• RF +1%; after earnings from the regional bank topped consensus this morning; also earnings results out from CFG, TFC and MTB this morning.
• TRV +1%; posted core Q3 EPS $9.18 vs. est. $7.43 and revs fell to $12.4B y/y but above the consensus $11B; Q3 Bond & Specialty Insurance net written premiums rose 12% to $1.21B and Personal Insurance’s fell 7% to $4.4B; Q3 catastrophe losses $538M up from $402M y/y.
• TSLA +2%; shares rise after the company unveils a redesigned Roadster sports car developed with SPCX. The new model features rocket-style thrusters, set for production in 2028. New Roadster can go from 0-60 mph in under 1 second.
• VRNS +2%; to be acquired by Proofpoint in a $6.3B transaction as shareholders to receive $49.75 per share in cash; until deal closes, Proofpoint & Varonis will continue to operate as separate and Independent companies.

• FOXF -14%; announces CEO transition; guides Q4 revs $287M-$313M, below consensus of $348.5M and cut both its FY26 rev view to $1.35B-$1.38B from $1.42B-$1.47B (est. $1.44B) and its FY26 adj EBITDA view to $140M-$150M from $176M-$196M to reflect input costs at current levels
• MSTR -5%; after MSCI said the bitcoin buyer could be removed from its global indexes under new rules. MSCI said that non-operating companies will be ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes from the close of Nov 30.
• NFLX -2%; named former Disney executive Peter Rice as chief content officer, replacing 10-year veteran Bela Bajaria; also, as M Science cuts Q3 subscriber add estimates to 3.80 million from 5.10 million, below the 4.10 million consensus
• OMER -11%; after the company announced that the European Medicines Agency's CHMP issued a negative opinion on its marketing authorization application for narsoplimab in TA-TMA, following re-examination of its original negative opinion from June.

Closing Recap

Friday, October 16, 2026

US equity futures continued yesterday’s trend overnight, with the S&P showing modest gains while the Nasdaq slipped again.  Fed rate hike concerns appear to have been absorbed efficiently but ai build-out and revenue growth anxiety have taken over for now sinking technology stocks. On current earnings growth forecasts, the ai trade names are not carrying daunting forward valuations, but investors will have to wait for the next round of earnings to get a new read on the longevity of that growth so some skittishness may persist or even deepen the recent rotation. 

Early gains were short-lived as the S&P quickly went red while the Nasdaq faded further to about -1% within the first half hour of trading.  That said, early breadth favored advancers by 11:9 with IWM (-0.12%) versus SPY (-0.06%) and QQQ (-0.90%).  SPY breadth favored advancers by 17:6 while QQQ breadth was neutral.  Sector-wise, Materials (+1.67%), Utilities (+1.10%) and Financials (+1.03%) were early outperformers while Health Care (+0.02%), Communications (-0.52%) and Technology (-1.16%) paced the underperformers with 9 sectors gaining versus just 2 declining, so some very sector-specific selling.

In sentiment metrics, today’s Fear and Greed Index dipped back to 30 (Fear) from last week’s 35 (Fear) and last month’s 53 (Neutral).  This is consistent with yesterday’s bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey which slipped to -2.9% vs +1.3% last week. Bulls dropped to 38.7% from 40.3% while Neutrals fell to 19.7% from 20.8% and Bears climbed to 41.6% from 39%.

Heading into the final hour of trading, US equities had extended losses despite 6 of 11 S&P sector ETF’s still being in the green. Consumer Discretionary (-0.84%), Communications (-1.89%) and Technology (-3%) led the underperformers, and the market, lower. Today broke a 55-day streak without a daily decline of more than 1% in the S&P 500.  It was the longest streak in more than six years.  That said, per @MikeZaccardi, the equal-weighted S&P had its best week vs Tech since 2009. Stock markets closed at their lows of the week with Friday’s sharp decline. For the week, the S&P 500 fell -1.95%, the Nasdaq declined -4.48%, and the Dow climbed 0.67%. Dow records second straight weekly gain for first time since early August while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq record biggest weekly percentage drop since week ended June 26 and biggest daily percentage decline for the Nasdaq since July 23 as the PHLX semi index (SOX) falls for 8th day, matches longest losing streak since 2006.

• Industrial output for September rose +0.7% vs. consensus +0.4% and vs Aug +0.1% as mining output +0.2% (aug +0.5%), Utilities output +3.5% (aug +1.5%). September capacity use rate 76.9% (consensus 76.5%) vs Aug 76.4% (previous 76.3%).

• WTI crude futures eased slightly overnight as headlines indicated Iran had signaled openness to dialogue, but prices bounced back aggressively intraday.  By early afternoon WTI futures were up more than 2% after hitting highs above $101/bbl.  More ballistic missile and drone intercepts by the Saudi-led coalition and reports of NATO weighing response to Black Sea drone attacks contributed to the gains. December WTI crude settled off its highs at +$2.52/bbl, or +2.61%, at $99.02. Brent Crude futures settle at their highest since May 19 and WTI crude the highest closing level since September 17th
• Benchmark Treasuries finished their best week since mid-February, before the start of the war in Iran. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes dropped 14.6 bps this week to settle at 5.097%, their largest weekly decline since the week through Feb. 13 and down from highs  5.31% just the prior Monday. A tech selloff earlier this week prompted investors to pivot to safer assets, boosting Treasury prices. The 2-year yield fell -5.5 bps this week to 4.734%, now down 3 straight weeks.

• Casino & Gaming sector: Deutsche Bank lowered estimates in Vegas/Macau preview, saying recent operating fundamentals across both Las Vegas and Macau have weakened, driving negative estimate revisions and a meaningful decline in share prices. The average share price decline across MGM, WYNN, and LVS over the last two months has been ~27% (vs. SPX -1%), while our 2026 and 2027 estimates have been revised lower by ~2.5% and ~4.0%, respectively. They continue to prefer the more stable Regional Gaming and Las Vegas Locals markets.

• Tankers & Shippers: INSW has agreed to buy Bruton in a series of transactions that values its smaller peer at about $370 million. International Seaways said the acquisition would add Bruton's four very large crude carrier, or VLCC, vessels, to its fleet of roughly 70 vessels that provide seaborne transportation services for crude oil and refined petroleum products.
• Transport sector: in intermodal, JBHT posted mixed Q2 as EPS $1.82 missed est. $1.86 while revs grew by 20.4%, 240bps above consensus, driven by 57.0% revenue growth at the ICS Brokerage operations and topped consensus. While revenues topped expectations, so did costs, with increases of 59% in fuel, 32% in purchased transportation, and 46% growth in Insurance/claims.
• Chemical sector: EMN was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan (tgt to $66 from $82 as thinks commodity values could soon cease to work in favor of Eastman as the price of propane is now $1.07/gal up from $0.74/gal at the end of August and the spot price of polymer grade propylene has moved lower from $0.41/gal to $0.39/gal and says the narrowing of spreads could lower annual EBITDA by about ($90M).
• Nuclear/Utility sector: NI signed a new long term energy agreement with MSFT for its previously announced northwest Indiana campus; deal increases total expected NIPSCO electric customer savings to approximately $1.75B. broader Utility space (XLU) was stronger after Treasury yields held the prior day pullback.

• Brokers & Exchanges: IBKR Q3 adj EPS $0.67 vs est $0.68 on NII $1.154B vs est $1.128B and revs $1.914B vs est $1.888B; raises dividend to $0.15; Q3 Net interest income +19% y/y to $1.15B, primarily on higher average customer margin loans and credit balances; Q3 customer accounts grew 35% y/y to 5,576,000, while customer margin loans jumped 36% to $105.2B.

• Crypto sector: MSTR shares fell after MSCI said the bitcoin buyer could be removed from its global indexes under new rules. MSCI said that non-operating companies will be ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes from the close of Nov 30. CRCL is entering 40 emerging and developing countries as blockchain adoption is set to scale significantly, Reuters reports.

• Financial Services: Oppenheimer downgraded EFX to Perform from Outperform in Q3 credit serviced preview reflecting weakening mortgage fundamentals, potential elimination of the tri-merge requirement, which its analysis suggests could reduce EPS by mid-single digits and limited incremental upside from Government

• MDXH preliminary Q3 revenue $22.7M, below consensus $24.55M saying experienced unexpected turnover within our sales force catalyzed by aggressive targeting from recruiters; suspends FY26 revenue guidance of $110M-$115M.
• OMER shares fell after the company announced that the European Medicines Agency's CHMP issued a negative opinion on its marketing authorization application for narsoplimab in TA-TMA, following re-examination of its original negative opinion from June.
• RHHBY said it received approval from the U.S. FDA to market its Enspryng drug as a treatment for rare autoimmune condition thyroid eye disease in adults; said this marks the second indication in the U.S. for Enspryng, which was already authorized in 2020 for autoimmune disease neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder.

• AI Data Centers/Neocloud sector: CRWV shares and bonds were set for steep weekly losses on Friday, highlighting investor worries over the cloud-computing company's $50 billion debt load that has rippled across the AI industry. Recent CPI/PPI inflation data boosted bets on interest-rate hikes, raising the chances of higher payout on borrowings by data center/AI infrastructure firms with huge debt. Shares track to fall over 15% this week.
• Anthropic's anticipated $2T valuation ahead of a planned November IPO is facing investor resistance, with some reportedly considering a valuation closer to $1.5T, Reuters reported. The reassessment follows the company's latest financial disclosures, as some investors question whether revenue growth can justify the cost of AI development. Anthropic reported Q3 revenue of $16.8B, up 45% from the prior quarter, slower than its more than doubling of revenue in Q1-Q2.
• Media sector: NFLX shares fell as M Science cuts Q3 subscriber add estimates to 3.80 million from 5.10 million, below the 4.10 million consensus; NFLX also named former Disney executive Peter Rice as chief content officer, replacing 10-year veteran Bela Bajaria
• Software sector: VRNS to be acquired by Proofpoint in a $6.3B transaction as shareholders to receive $49.75 per share in cash; until deal closes, Proofpoint & Varonis will continue to operate as separate and Independent companies. WDAY was downgraded to hold from buy at KeyBanc, with analysts expecting a longer timeline before the adoption of Ai products takes hold

Street Recommendations

Friday, October 16, 2026

• HLT Barclays raised the firm's price target on Hilton to $384 from $368 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the lodging c-corps as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Barclays expects strong Q3 RevPAR "beats and raises" on a U.S. RevPAR acceleration due to business travel. Barclays is positive on the stock into earnings citing an elongated positive revision cycle versus mixed sentiment around tougher comps, owner issues, and valuation.
• H Barclays raised the firm's price target on Hyatt to $202 from $201 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the lodging c-corps as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Barclays expects strong Q3 RevPAR "beats and raises" on a U.S. RevPAR acceleration due to business travel. Barclays is positive on the stock into earnings citing an elongated positive revision cycle versus mixed sentiment around tougher comps, owner issues, and valuation.
• MAR Barclays analyst Brandt Montour raised the firm's price target on Marriott to $363 from $348 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the lodging c-corps as part of a Q3 earnings preview. Barclays expects strong Q3 RevPAR "beats and raises" on a U.S. RevPAR acceleration due to business travel. Barclays is positive on the stock into earnings citing an elongated positive revision cycle versus mixed sentiment around tougher comps, owner issues, and valuation.
• IBKR Barclays raised the firm's price target on Interactive Brokers to $117 from $115 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's Q3 earnings were in line with revenues modestly ahead on better net interest income, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MOS Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Mosaic to $22 from $26 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the agribusiness group as part of a Q3 earnings preview. It expects a strong quarter for ammonia, with continued pressure in phosphates.
• TSM Barclays analyst Simon Coles raised the firm's price target on TSMC to $670 from $665 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance again as it continues to see increasing demand and has strong visibility on customer roadmaps, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• JBHT BofA analyst Ken Hoexter lowered the firm's price target on J.B. Hunt to $295 from $302 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased its Q4, 2026, and 2027 EPS estimates by 1%, 2%, and 2%, respectively, but applies a lower multiple, driving its lowered price target.
• SCHW BofA analyst Craig Siegenthaler lowered the firm's price target on Charles Schwab to $82 from $95 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Following the Q3 report, the firm decreased its 2026-2028 EPS estimates to reflect a lower net interest revenue forecast and lowered its multiple to reflect reduced visibility into long-term earnings contribution from NIR and client cash.
• ERIC BofA raised the firm's price target on Ericsson to SEK 87 from SEK 77 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Ericsson reported a beat on Q3 revenue and earnings and Q4 guide, with revenue driven by 7% organic growth helped by share gains in markets including Japan and some demand pull-in ahead of price rises, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that while 2026 is seeing better-than-expected results, it remains cautious on the carry-through to 2027, particularly given that rising memory component costs will have significantly more impact next year.
• ABG BofA lowered the firm's price target on Asbury Automotive to $234 from $275 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which thinks affordability is the key constraint across publicly traded auto dealerships, is lowering its dealer Q3 EPS estimates by 5.9% on average, reflecting softer industry new units and other factors.
• AN BofA lowered the firm's price target on AutoNation to $213 from $250 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which thinks affordability is the key constraint across publicly traded auto dealerships, is lowering its dealer Q3 EPS estimates by 5.9% on average, reflecting softer industry new units and other factors.
• GPI BofA analyst Alexander Perry lowered the firm's price target on Group 1 Automotive to $323 from $380 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which thinks affordability is the key constraint across publicly traded auto dealerships, is lowering its dealer Q3 EPS estimates by 5.9% on average, reflecting softer industry new units and other factors.
• LAD BofA lowered the firm's price target on Lithia & Driveway to $425 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which thinks affordability is the key constraint across publicly traded auto dealerships, is lowering its dealer Q3 EPS estimates by 5.9% on average, reflecting softer industry new units and other factors.
• SAH BofA analyst Alexander Perry lowered the firm's price target on Sonic Automotive to $98 from $115 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which thinks affordability is the key constraint across publicly traded auto dealerships, is lowering its dealer Q3 EPS estimates by 5.9% on average, reflecting softer industry new units and other factors.

• STT Citi analyst Benjamin Gerlinger lowered the firm's price target on State Street to $190 from $212 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a Q3 miss on fee revenue in a "soft quarter," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites higher cost of equity amid raised interest rates for the target cut.
• FIS Citi analyst Bryan Keane lowered the firm's price target on FIS to $39 from $45 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the fintech services group as part of a Q3 earnings. Citi sees renewed investor interest on the acquirers and processors given their low valuations and high recurring revenue.
• FISV Citi lowered the firm's price target on Fiserv to $53 from $57 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the fintech services group as part of a Q3 earnings. Citi sees renewed investor interest on the acquirers and processors given their low valuations and high recurring revenue.
• DIS Citi analyst Jason Bazinet raised the firm's price target on Disney to $140 from $135 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the fiscal Q4 report on November 17. Citi believes fiscal 2027 consensus EBIT estimates for Disney may be 1% too low. The company should "easily achieve" its fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• JBHT Citi raised the firm's price target on J.B. Hunt to $263 from $254 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the Q3 report. The firm says the company "expressed significant conviction" in its ability to recoup higher costs through pricing actions. Citi expects the could move higher in the near-term.

• HGV Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove lowered the firm's price target on Hilton Grand Vacations to $40 from $47 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

• EMN JPMorgan downgraded Eastman Chemical to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $66, down from $82. The firm thinks commodity values could soon start working against Eastman. The price of propane is now $1.07 per gallon, up from 74c at the end of August, and the spot price of polymer grade propylene has moved lower, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan points out that Eastman produces about 500M pounds of propylene itself and buys 500M pounds on a cost plus basis.
• CTRE JPMorgan analyst Michae Mueller initiated coverage of CareTrust REIT with a Neutral rating and $41 price target. The firm likes the company's earnings momentum but says the current backdrop for real estate investment trusts warrant a Neutral rating. This year's interest rate increases and volatility are more of a headwind for "acquisition-heavy stories" such as CareTrust, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• JBHT JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on J.B. Hunt to $283 from $287 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees the stock modestly underperforming post the Q3 report, saying the stock's "key cost buckets remain stickier than expected" into Q4. While the wide discount to truckload is still pulling through record conversion activity, most investors continue to overestimate how quickly JBI margins can improve, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TSLA JPMorgan keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla after the company unveiled its second-generation Roadster. The car "combines conventional automotive engineering with rocket propulsion technology," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says production is targeted for 2028, compared with the original 2020 delivery target announced when the vehicle was first unveiled in 2017. Tesla did not disclose final pricing, battery capacity, driving range or anticipated production volumes, adds the firm. It points out that Tesla indicated the Roadster would eventually become its only manually driven vehicle as the broader portfolio transitions toward full autonomy.

• CERT KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Certara to $12 from $9 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Into the setup for Q3 earnings, the firm saw HCIT valuations mostly recover from last quarter, which means that expectations are elevated for several names in its universe. While KeyBanc expects mostly good prints and guidance raises, the question will be whether top-line growth is enough to appease investors at current levels.
• CRWD KeyBanc analyst Eric Heath raised the firm's price target on CrowdStrike to $265 from $245 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Survey results and checks from 33 IT and security channel partners were again positive in Q3 with continued strength in hardware and a positive inflection in security, while apps were mixed, the firm says. Meets/beats improved for the fourth consecutive quarter, the budget outlook for 2027 still calls for acceleration, U.S. Fed budget flush improved year-over-year, and AI showed more material progress to production, adds KeyBanc.
• SDGR KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Schrodinger to $32 from $20 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Into the setup for Q3 earnings, the firm saw HCIT valuations mostly recover from last quarter, which means that expectations are elevated for several names in its universe. While KeyBanc expects mostly good prints and guidance raises, the question will be whether top-line growth is enough to appease investors at current levels.

• SMTC Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Semtech to $205 from $195 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. After management raised its fiscal Q3 outlook and introduced financial targets through FY30, the firm says it takes "some comfort" in the assumptions underlying management's longer term outlook, though it adds that the "implied growth remains ambitious." The firm cites "a fuller valuation" and execution risk on newer product ramps for its Equal Weight rating.

• KTB Needham initiated coverage of Kontoor Brands with a Hold rating and no price target. While there are "some intriguing aspects of the business," M&A in Softlines has proven extremely challenging over the years, says the analyst, who thinks it is worth waiting to see how well the company integrates and executes on Helly Hansen's growth strategies.
• URBN Needham analyst Tom Nikic initiated coverage of Urban Outfitters with a Buy rating and $100 price target. The firm sees strong long-term growth potential at Nuuly and Free People, a "major" margin recapture opportunity at the namesake Urban Outfitters brand, and steady growth at Anthropologie with easier comparisons ahead, the analyst tells investors.
• BOOT Needham initiated coverage of Boot Barn with a Buy rating and $150 price target. The firm views the recent selloff as a buying opportunity. Needham views Boot Barn as one of the best long-term footage growth stories in softlines retail. The company has dominant market position in country-western workwear with an opportunity to more than double its store count from here, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the stock's risk/reward is "skewed highly positive" for its double-digit earnings growth.

• BLDR Oppenheimer analyst Tyler Batory lowered the firm's price target on Builders FirstSource to $78 from $90 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm models Q3 in line with consensus but reduced Q4 forecast, leaving FY26 EBITDA below the guidance midpoint. Oppenheimer's FY27 EBITDA of $997M assumes no recovery in starts and could prove conservative due to company-specific factors.
• PNC Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski raised the firm's price target on PNC Financial to $269 from $263 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm says this quarter is another example of why it favors banks like PNC: steady loan growth, ample runway for market share gains and lower revenue weighting toward more trading revenues.
• USB Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski raised the firm's price target on U.S. Bancorp to $73 from $72 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported strong Q3 earnings per share of $1.34, ahead of it $1.24 and consensus' $1.32.

• HRTG Raymond James analyst C. Gregory Peters initiated coverage of Heritage Insurance with a Market Perform rating and no price target. Heritage's multi-year underwriting remediation has restored profitability to a level consistent with other Florida domiciled peers, but the firm currently prefer Florida property insurance companies with less commercial residential exposure, the analyst tells investors.
• CPRI Raymond James analyst Rick Patel upgraded Capri Holdings to Strong Buy from Outperform with a $20 price target. Fiscal Q2 should meet or exceed expectations and the firm sees sequential improvement in the second half of FY27, including a positive revenue inflection, the analyst tells investors. The firm also notes market reports of acquisition potential, stating that is "not our base case, but creates a floor on sentiment."
• DECK Raymond James lowered the firm's price target on Deckers Outdoor to $105 from $120 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Deckers Outdoor faces a potentially choppy Q2, with revenue in line but gross margins and EPS below consensus amid higher promotions and slowing traffic, the analyst tells investors in a research note. HOKA's 2H acceleration and UGG's achievable mid-single-digit growth guidance support the longer-term outlook for high-single-digit sales growth, strong margins, and EPS-accretive buybacks, the firm says.
• ONON Raymond James raised the firm's price target on On Holding to $42 from $38 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. On's Q3 outlook appears de-risked following reaffirmed FY26 guidance and +17% ex-FX revenue guidance, with favorable FX supporting estimates and strong innovation positioning Q3 and 2027 growth, while its high-teens three-year revenue target reflects continued expansion across wholesale, DTC, apparel, and new categories, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TPR Raymond James lowered the firm's price target on Tapestry to $140 from $165 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Tapestry's Coach brand continues to show strong underlying momentum, higher AUR, international growth, and lower promotions, while FY27 mid-single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, and double digit EPS growth appear achievable with upside from conservative guidance and favorable FX, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• EAT Raymond James upgraded Brinker to Strong Buy from Outperform with a price target of $260, down from $270. The firm expects a "strong beat/raise" earnings report and is "confident" in its above-consensus estimates, adding that it sees "tangible levers" to sustain mid-single digit-plus comp growth.
• CMG Raymond James lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $37 from $42.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of the company's Q3 report on October 28. The firm expects Q3 revenue to increase 9.7% year-over-year, reflecting 78 net new unit openings and comps up 2%. While spreads can vary, the firm's comp estimate is supported by its read of third-party data that suggests a strong responses to certain promotions and menu launches in late August/early September, followed by softer trends in recent weeks, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• FWRG Raymond James lowered the firm's price target on First Watch Restaurant to $18 from $20 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. The firm, which names First Watch a top long idea, expects "solid" Q3 comps of 1.5% growth despite lapping a tough compare with path to 3% or more in Q4. The shares are undervalued with strong AUVs and store margins, proven portability, and positive FCF inflection starting in 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• VRNS RBC Capital downgraded Varonis to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $49.75, down from $52, after the company agreed to be acquired by Proofpoint, a Thoma Bravo portfolio company, for $49.75 per share. RBC thinks the acquisition makes sense, saying competition in the data security market has intensified in recent years and that Varonis could be more successful as part of a larger platform. The firm does not expect additional bidders to emerge.

• SMTC Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg lowered the firm's price target on Semtech to $200 from $220 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Semtech raises its Q3 guidance to $417.5M in revenue and $1.14 NG EPS at the midpoint, up from $410M and $1.05, respectively, and introduced new FY30 targets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that conservatism is built into the outlook, as Photonics content and Amazon Sidewalk are included only at moderate levels.

• BE Truist analyst Christopher Souther raised the firm's price target on Bloom Energy to $240 from $218 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares ahead of its Q3 results. The firm expects the company to report a strong Q3 result, driven by healthy year-over-year demand, continued commercial momentum, and improving profitability, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Bloom's valuation already reflects much of its long-term growth opportunity, but the firm's higher price target reflects increased near-term demand growth and expectation of increased site content into average selling prices, Truist added.
• CNX Truist lowered the firm's price target on CNX Resources to $34 from $35 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm is updating its model heading into the company's Q3 earnings while noting it expects a relatively in-line quarter operationally, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PTCT Truist analyst Joon Lee reinstated coverage of PTC Therapeutics with a Hold rating and $62 price target. The firm states that it is skeptical about the long-term growth outlook for Sephience growth in Phenylketonuria. Sephience may offer incremental benefit vs generic BH4 (ie Kuvan), but the most appropriate total addressable market - Kuvan partial responders - is small and likely already significantly penetrated, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• BNY Truist lowered the firm's price target on BNY Mellon to $165 from $172 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is updating its model following the company's Q3 results, with expenses moving up alongside revenue with FY26 ex-notables expense of $13.88B vs. $13.75B prior and the buyback being trimmed to $4.0B and $4.5B in FY26/FY27 from $4.5B and $5.0B respectively, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SCHW Truist lowered the firm's price target on Charles Schwab to $112 from $125 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is updating its model following the company's Q3 results, with the cut that comes in FY27 outlook on net interest income to $16.5B from $17.1B on a lower net interest margin path of 3.49% vs. 3.60% prior, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• FUN UBS lowered the firm's price target on Six Flags to $18 from $27 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q3 visitation softened in August before improving in September, while uncertainty around the Georgia park incident prompts a modest valuation multiple cut and conservative estimates of a 2-3 ppt decline in 2027 visitation and $40-$50M EBITDA impact, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Shares appear to price in a more severe and durable impact absent evidence of systemic safety failures, the firm adds.
• AWK UBS lowered the firm's price target on American Water to $153 from $162 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. American Water's sharp rate-driven underperformance creates a potential recovery opportunity, with New Jersey and Pennsylvania merger approvals serving as catalysts after its relative performance ranked among the weakest historical episodes during 50 basis point Treasury yield increases, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm recommends buying the stock.

• WDC Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Western Digital to $450 from $730 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm thinks recent underperformance of HDD stocks creates interesting risk / reward setup into September quarter prints. Wells continues to see durable 25%-30%-plus revenue growth and path to 60%-65%-plus gross margin intact.
• AA Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners lowered the firm's price target on Alcoa to $58 from $60 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Q3's beat and strong free cash flow could support shares Friday given cautious positioning into the print, yet the firm still thinks the stock is largely a call on the aluminum market. Wells likes the S32 deal, and was encouraged with the Massena East sale.
• JBHT Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on J.B. Hunt to $285 from $305 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Coming off its callback, the firm is trimming estimates, but remains above consensus. Wells notes Q3 cost are trending as expected and the outlook for Intermodal pricing appears better, but volume slower. The firm continues to believe the earnings growth trajectory is constructive.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: AERO AGNC BOKF CCK FNB KARO RBB RLI SFBS STLD WAL WASH WRB WTFC ZION

• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for September
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for September
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for September
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: ADC ALK CB COF ELS EWBC HWC ISRG LRN MCB NFLX NLY NP ORRF OZK PEGA QCRH UAL

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: BANR BBT BDN CACI CASH CATY CCI CSX EFSB EGBN EGP EPRT ESI FAF FR FRME FULT GGG GL GSBC GTY HBNC HXL IBM KALU KMI KNX LBRT LOB LRCX LUV MEDP META MMLP MOH NTST OII PKG PNFP Q ROL RS SAP SEIC SLG SON SSB STC TCBI TCBX TFIN TSLA TXN URI WCN WDFC WH WSBC

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Leading Index M/M for September
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for October

• Earnings After the Close: ABCB AMTB APPF ASB BBD BE BY BYD COLB CUBI DECK EBC ENVA FIBK GBCI HTH JAKK KN KNSL KRC MRTN MXL NEM ORC PINE REXR RNG SAM SIGI SLM SPFI SRCE SSNC USCB UVE VRSN WDC WSFS

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Oct-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct-flash
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, Oct-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, Oct-final
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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