Early Look

Friday, June 26, 2026

After a mixed trading session on Thursday, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain after pulling back off fresh intraday record highs, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closes lower for 4th day in a row, both S&P and Nasdaq futures are both looking lower again this morning. Yesterday, weakness in large cap tech names (MSFT, AAPL) and software (IGV, ORCL) overshadowed gains in semi chips behind Micron (MU) better earnings/guide, but this morning concerns about AI infrastructure and capex spending speed bumps weigh after the New York Times reported OpenAI is seriously considering holding off its initial public offering until 2027, due in part to concerns over investor sentiment. Recent events, including a quick pullback in SpaceX share values combined with concerns about AI companies meeting their lofty goals, prompted a reconsideration.

In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -3005 points or 4.15% to settle at 69,360, the Shanghai Index dropped -93 points or 2.26% to 4,027, and the Hang Seng Index fell -405 points to 22,671. In Europe, the German DAX is down -311 points to 24,683, while the FTSE 100 falls -80 points to 10,449. WTI crude oil prices dropped back below $70 per barrel this morning while Treasury yields again pullback from more than 1 year high recently, in fact the 10yr yield -17bps since Warsh filled the chair. In data, next week, Economists expect China’s upcoming June official Manufacturing PMI to remain little changed at 50.1, hovering right on the 50.0 threshold while today in the US we get advanced trade and Michigan confidence data.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 71.72 points, or 0.14%, to 51,920.62
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -118.03 points, or 0.46%, to 25,358.60
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 21.24 points, or 0.71% to 3,007.86

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, June-final
• 10:00 AM Et                  University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Apogee (APOG) Q1 EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.45 and revs fell -1% y/y to $342.68M but topped ests $333.8M; reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance and expects Kalwall acquisition to close in July; said overall net sales declined due to lower volume, with higher material and freight costs impacting margins.
• Lululemon (LULU) shareholders have elected three management-backed directors, including former Levi Strauss chief Chip Bergh, cementing the settlement of a proxy battle with its founder. LULU also disclosed on Friday that two of founder Chip Wilson's nominees, Marc Maurer and Laura Gentile, have been appointed as independent directors

• DLH Holdings Corp (DLHC) awarded Mac ID/IQ contract for U.S. navy Logistics it services; the company is one of multiple prime awardees on five-year contract with $250M ceiling.
• FedEx Freight (FDXF) Q4 revs rose 4.8% y/y to $2.4B while operating income dropped 66.9% to $158M; Q4 operating margin narrowed 14.2% to 6.6%; average daily shipments fell 5.9% to 86,700; Q4 revenue per shipment rose 11.5% to $415.22; weight per shipment increased 3% to 948 pounds; sees 4%-6% revenue growth in the seven-month transition period, forecasting operating income of $475M-$515M.
• Rocket Labs (RKLB) shares rose overnight after NASA selected Rocket Lab to provide the launch service for both the agency’s PolSIR (Polarized Submillimeter Ice-cloud Radiometer) and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-2 (TSIS-2) missions.
• SpaceX (SPCX) has told investors that it plans to launch a new Starlink mobile service for U.S. consumers, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. SpaceX president and COO Gwynne Shotwell told investors during an IPO roadshow that the group was considering launching a Starlink retail product. The company could build its own terrestrial US mobile network. The move would require Starlink to sell mobile contracts to individual customers.
• Weyerhaeuser (WY) lowers 2Q wood products guidance partly due to lower production resulting from transportation constraints.

• onsemi (ON) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Synaptics (SYNA) in an all-stock transaction, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $7 billion; SYNA shareholders to receive 1.35 shares of onsemi for each Synaptics share held. The combination would accelerate onsemi's evolution toward global leadership in intelligent systems, building on its expertise in automotive, industrial and AI data center.
• Apple (AAPL) supplier Tata Electronics has tightened Security controls, restricted employee access to internal systems after data breach Reuters reported. Tata hired global consultant for a forensic audit after Cyber breach, and has reported incident to Indian govt, clients.
• Italy's antitrust authority has opened an investigation into Microsoft (MSFT) over alleged unfair commercial practices related to a price increase for its Microsoft 365 subscription service. The regulator said the company failed to adequately inform consumers about the price increase and did not make it sufficiently clear that the subscription had been integrated with AI services Copilot and Designer.
• Quantum Corporation (QMCO) Q4 revs rise 27% y/y to $78M, while guides Q1 revs $75M vs. est. $70M; Q4 net loss widens to $9.5M as gross margins fell 3.9% to 35.7%.

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, June 26, 2026

U.S. stocks are mixed again as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for weekly declines as chipmakers came under renewed selling pressure after a stellar run this quarter, with investors questioning high valuations and the repercussions of massive AI spending by companies. This morning the SPY traded below its 50dma support while the QQQs near its 50dma around $702.75 but have since bounced notably off lows. AI supply chain/semiconductors slipped after the New York Times reported that OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its IPO until 2027 from a prior Q3/Q4 2026 target amid continued heavy spending, rising competition, and a less supportive equity backdrop, raising fresh questions around the pace of AI infrastructure investment. Separately, a report in The Information said OpenAI will reportedly roll out GPT-5.6 in phases, with select customers receiving early access, following requests from Washington amid growing scrutiny of advanced AI model releases. Other concerns remain inflation and rate hikes after data Thursday showed U.S. inflation (PCE) rose above 4% in May for the first time in three years, boosted by higher energy prices, keeping the possibility of a Fed rate hike alive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average comes into the day at all-time highs 9extending gains early), boosted lately by shares of CAT, financials and healthcare while Smallcaps have held up very well. Overnight, President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz was open and that the US would buy wheat, corn and soybeans with Iranian funds, but the bounce was short-lived as Asian markets tumbled (Nikkie, Shanghai, Kospi) as tech sentiment soured. Bitcoin slips back below $60,000 this week as U.S. stock futures fall driven by losses in tech stocks (Bitcoin reached a 21-month low of $58,075 Thursday).

A key item today, The FTSE Russell indices will undergo their semi-annual rebalancing after markets close today. The rebalancing will impact $6 trillion of active and passive assets under management benchmarked to the major Russell indices, according to strategists at JPMorgan Asset Management. The event will result in lots of companies moving between indexes. Most notably, SpaceX is among those set to be added to the Russell 1000. Updated indices will go live Monday. Overall, 43 companies are expected to graduate from the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks to the Russell 1000 large-cap index.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final June 4.6% vs prelim 4.6% and final May 4.8% while 5-year inflation outlook final June 3.3% vs prelim 3.4% and final May 3.9%.

• In Chemicals: German chemicals group Evonik Industries (EVKIY) raised its full-year profit outlook after posting Q2 results that beat expectation; now sees 2026 adj EBITDA between EU2.0B ($2.28B) and EU2.2B, up from a previously forecast range of EU1.7B-2B; said Q2 adj EBITDA is expected to come in at between EU600M-650M, above views of about EU567M, driven by higher volumes and prices as well as ongoing cost cuts. Shares of US related comps include DD, EMN, ASH, HUN, CBT. FUL was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan as the firm thinks lower oil prices and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are likely to minimize or lower H.B. Fuller's raw material cost pressure in 2027.
• In Aerospace: SPCX told investors that it plans to launch a new Starlink mobile service for U.S. consumers, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. SpaceX president and COO Gwynne Shotwell told investors during an IPO roadshow that the group was considering launching a Starlink retail product. The company could build its own terrestrial US mobile network. The move would require Starlink to sell mobile contracts to individual customers. RKLB shares bounced after NASA selected Rocket Lab to provide the launch service for both the agency’s PolSIR (Polarized Submillimeter Ice-cloud Radiometer) and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-2 (TSIS-2) missions.

• APOG +14%; on results as Q1 EPS $0.57 vs. est. $0.45 and revs fell -1% y/y to $342.68M but topped ests $333.8M; reaffirmed fiscal 2027expectce and expects Kalwall acquisition to close in July; said overall net sales declined due to lower volume, with higher material and freight costs impacting margins.
• CROX +5%; was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and raised to $150 saying its North America DTC inflected to MSD in Q126 (best since Q224), and compares ease remainder of the year, Heydude is seeing green shoots in DTC, EPS estimates are upwardly biased.
• FCEL +20%; was upgraded to Buy at Jefferies with $24 tgt after Fit Energy data center deal saying the setup has materially shifted from "show me" to executing on visible backlog, while a deep valuation discount to BE creates an asymmetric entry point.
• INFQ +7%; initiated at Outperform and $20 tgt at Wedbush saying it is the only company commercializing the entire neutral-atom stack across Computing, sensing, and software from one shared technology core, and the only publicly traded neutral-atom pure-play.
• RKLB +4%; shares bounced after NASA selected Rocket Lab to provide the launch service for both the agency’s PolSIR (Polarized Submillimeter Ice-cloud Radiometer) and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-2 (TSIS-2) missions.

• CAPR -13%; after the U.S. FDA scheduled an advisory committee meeting to discuss the company’s marketing application for Deramiocel, a treatment targeting Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
• MSTR -2%; on track for its lowest level in more than two years. The stock slumped about 8% Thursday and comes into Friday with a seven-day losing streak, its worst seven-day losing streak since November 2022.
• OMER -18%; shares fell after saying the European Medicines Agency's key panel issued a negative opinion on its application for its drug narsoplimab to treat transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA); OMER to request a re-examination of the opinion and review by an independent expert group.
• ON -19%; agreed to be acquire SYNA in an all-stock transaction, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $7B; SYNA shareholders to receive 1.35 shares of onsemi for each Synaptics share held.
• SFTBY -8%; shares of Softbank tumbled following NYT report that OpenAI is considering pushing its highly anticipated public debut into next year; potential postponement threatens to delay a massive liquidity event for the company's major financial backers.

Closing Recap

Thursday, June 25, 2026

U.S. stocks finish mixed following a very busy day of important earnings, economic data, commodity price moves, further weakness in crypto, and large sector/stock movers that left the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 at record highs early before paring gains. Meanwhile the Nasdaq finished well off its earlier highs as strength in semis due to Micron (MU) earnings being offset by weakness in large cap and software names again (IGV, MSFT). Industrials (XLI) outperformed up over 2% to new all-time highs, while Materials (XLB), Energy (XLE) and Healthcare (XLV) were all up by over 1%. The biggest story of the day was Micron (MU) earnings/guidance which crushed consensus estimates on massive margins. The news sent memory/HDD stocks surging (SNDK, WDC) in sympathy and revived the AI trade, with semis (SOX) jumping overnight as well. Nasdaq futures rose over 2.3% before turning sharply lower this morning, led by customers with memory chip needs such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META and MSFT. In fact, Apple announced that it was raising the price of several iPad and MacBooks significantly to offset some of the memory costs they are incurring. Microsoft later announced Xbox price hikes.

PCE inflation hits a near 3-year high rising to +4.1% from +3.8% prior on a y/y basis, while Core PCE inflation advances +3.4% y/y and +0.3% on a monthly basis. The Fed's preferred gauge showed prices heated up in May, paving the way for a rate hike if inflation doesn't dissipate. But Wall Street is hoping given the pullback in oil prices this week to pre-Iran/US war dropping below $70 per barrel, that inflation may have peaked. Still, financial markets are anticipating a rate hike from the U.S. central bank in September following last week’s FOMC policy meeting that was more hawkish than anticipated. In other data, May durable goods orders fall -4.5%, versus consensus of a -4% contraction. A third estimate raises 1Q GDP growth to 2.1% from 1.6%, vs. estimates of 1.7%. Weekly jobless claims slip to 215,000 from an upwardly revised 227,000, versus consensus of 223,000

Sector movers Healthcare was among leaders today, with shares of MRK, JNJ, UNH among leaders in the Dow Jones Industrial Average along with CAT which set a record, as the Dow earlier hit a fresh record high of 52,655.66, despite tech weakness with AAPL, MSFT and AMZN the biggest drags in the Dow. Crypto prices tumble further with Bitcoin and Ethereum declines hitting the crypto related names (MSTR, COIN, IBIT, BMNR).

In weekly sentiment readings: 1) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index increased again to 98.59 from 92.83 last week - highest since the 98.39 level on 5-27, which was the highest since the 100.7 on 12-17-25 - the 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 is the 52 week hi - 2025 trough from 4-16-25 of 35.16 - Last Quarter Average (Q1) was 82.00 (down from 92.26 in Q4). 2) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +8.8% vs -2.8% last week. Bulls rise to 44.9% from 36.6%, Neutrals fall to 18.9% from 24.1%, Bears fall to 36.1% from 39.4%

• Q1 final U.S. GDP (third estimate) reported at +2.1%, annual rate, vs. +1.6% in the second estimate and +0.5% in the prior quarter. Q1 Personal consumption expenditures reported at +0.5%, annual rate, vs. +1.4% in prior estimate and +1.9% in previous quarter. Corporate profits rose at a rate of 0.5% during the quarter, compared to -0.4% in the previous estimate and +5.7% seen in Q4 2025. US Q1 consumer spending +0.5%, final Q1 GDP deflator +3.6% (consensus +3.5%).
• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 215,000 from 227,000 prior week and vs consensus 225,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 224,250 from 223,500 prior week; continued claims climbed to 1.821M from 1.8M prior and vs. consensus of 1.800M; the US insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.2%.
• Personal Income for May rose +0.7%, above consensus +0.4% and vs April unchanged while Personal Spending also rose +0.7%, topping consensus +0.6% and vs April +0.4%; May Personal saving rate 3.0% vs April 3.0%.

• U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a 19-week high amid a rise in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants in recent weeks and forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand this week than previously expected. On their second-to-last day as the front-month, July NYMEX nat gas rose 12.2 cents, or 3.8%, to settle at $3.343 per mmBtu.
• August gold rose $38.80 or 0.97% to settle at $4,047.60 an ounce, getting a bounce after falling below $4,000 an ounce as Treasury yields eased along with the dollar after hitting 16-month highs. Gold and silver both settle higher, snapping a four-day losing streak for both.

• Treasury yields and the dollar fall as U.S. indicators send mixed signals while oil prices slip below pre-war levels. May PCE inflation meet WSJ consensus, accelerating to 4.1% from 3.8%. Falling energy costs are expected to cool future inflation. May durable goods orders fall 4.5%, versus consensus of a 4% contraction. A third estimate raises 1Q GDP growth to 2.1% from 1.6%, compared to estimates of 1.7%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 0.59 basis points to 4.394% and earlier reached 4.363%, the lowest level since May 8. The 30-year bond yield rose 0.22 basis points to 4.8582% after earlier dropping to 4.823%, the lowest since March 18.

• In Beverage sector: PEP shares pressured after cautious comments as 1) Evercore said thinks PepsiCo may deliver second quarter results below the consensus expectation as model Q2 organic sales growth of +2.3% vs. +2.8% consensus and also PepsiCo's operating margin disappointing due to cost inflation; 2) BOFA lowered Q2/FY26 EPS reflecting softer than expected performance at PFNA during the quarter and expectation for prolonged recovery in 2H. BF was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclay’s citing valuation, saying Brown-Forman's risk/reward proposition is appropriately captured at current share levels. The firm upgraded KDP to Overweight from Equal Weight (tgt to $36 from $30) saying the company's improved leverage and waning transaction uncertainty brings opportunity for a share re-rating as the planned coffee business separation draws closer.
• Discount Retailers: DLTR said funds affiliated with Mantle Ridge and a selling stockholder counterparty to derivative agreements with Mantle Ridge to sell ~12.82 mln shares. Upon completion of block trade, DLTR to repurchase $500 mln worth of shares from Goldman as part of co's existing $2.5B stock buyback authorization
• Apparel Retail sector: PVH was downgraded from Neutral to Underperform at Bank America and lowered tgt to $70 from $90 as they see limited potential for upside given high EMEA exposure (50%, the highest in its coverage universe) amidst a challenging macro backdrop.

• Online travel/lodging: TCOM shares fell after results as Q1 EPS/sales topped consensus but guided Q2 sales $2.137B-$2.241B, below $2.5B consensus and for Q2 said expects y/y total net revenue growth to decelerate to approximately 3%–8%, with a corresponding impact on margins and bottom-line results.
• Leisure sector: in RV sector, WGO reported a top and bottom line Q3 miss with EPS $0.66 below consensus $0.76 and revs fell -9.9% y/y to $698.7M vs. est. $758M primarily driven by lower unit volume and lowered its FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.65-$2.00 from $2.10-$2.80 while sees FY 2026 revenue between $2.65B and $2.75B.
• In Food delivery: Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $60 from $55 on CART citing positive 3P data, scenario analysis and proprietary survey, as Apptopia MAU regression implies +15% Q2 GTV growth vs Opco/Street's +12%. The firm also reiterates Outperform and $235 PT on DASH on contribution profit/segment analysis, TAM forecast, and proprietary survey of ~2,000 respondents suggest DoorDash remains the dominant restaurant delivery app.

• Utilities: PJM, the largest U.S. electricity grid operator will add a new emergency warning for approaching capacity shortfalls to maintain reliability amid surging AI data center demand. PJM Interconnection, which serves 67M people across 13 states, said it will issue a new capacity advisory up to five days in advance to warn customers of when electricity supply is projected to approach the demand requirement.

• Broker views on stress tests: Deutsche Bank said stills consider CFG to have the “most positive” result given the biggest drop in its SCB (-2.0% to the 2.5% floor). Noted FITB and KEY are also “winners” and both saw a 70bps drop in their SCBs to the 2.5% floor. MS' SCB declined 70bps (to 3.6%) which compares favorably to GS whose SCB increased 30bps to (3.7%), but to be fair, it had the biggest drop last year (when its SCB decreased 2.7%).
• Other bank news: JPM named Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh as co-presidents of the company, laying the groundwork to find candidates to succeed Chief Executive Jamie Dimon.
• Private credit sector: ARES said investors in a private credit fund run by the company looked to withdraw 14.4% of their shares in the second quarter, according to a regulatory filing. Ares Strategic Income Fund plans to fulfill repurchase requests for up to 5% of its shares, the customary threshold level, the filing showed. The fund said there was a decline in new withdrawal requests from investors in the U.S. private wealth channel, the largest segment of ASIF's investor base.
• FinTech: AFRM was downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley as remain one of the highest quality Fintech assets in its coverage, but with the stock up significantly since the late-March lows, believes the stock now more properly reflects GMV durability, continued funding execution, and best-in-class credit performance.

• KYMR said it has completed enrollment for the mid-stage trial of its experimental treatment, KT-621, to treat moderate to severe atopic dermatitis. Enrollment finished earlier than expected, allowing Kymera to bring forward its topline data to year-end 2026 - six months ahead of the previous mid-2027 guidance.
• LLY’s Foundayo or Zepbound is available to Medicare Part D Patients for $50/Month Starting July 1; GLP-1 bridge program lets eligible Medicare part D patients access co's obesity medicines from July 1, 2026 - Dec 31, 2027; estimates about 20 million Medicare patients may qualify for obesity medicine coverage.
• SPRY shares fell after the company said its Neffy nasal spray failed to secure commercial Insurance coverage. The company said no new commercial formulary additions or coverage decisions were issued for neffy— its epinephrine nasal spray for the emergency treatment of severe allergic reactions—in the July 1, 2026 cycle.
• TSHA shares fell after priced 32.5M shares of common stock priced to the public at $6.00 per share.
• Life Science sector: TECH agreed to be acquired by Merck KGaA for $73 per share in cash, representing a total enterprise value of about $11.3 billion. The offer price represents a 24% premium on TECH's last close. The acquisition will be funded through a combination of existing cash and proceeds from new debt. The deal follows a series of large healthcare transactions this year, including DHR’s $9.9B acquisition of patient-monitoring company Masimo in February.

• In LTL/truckers: Barclays adjusted targets in the North America transportation group as part of a Q2 earnings preview as believes solid U.S. and international freight demand fundamentals and lower capacity will support improved transport earnings and more robust outlooks. Volume momentum and higher U.S. imports set up for favorable transport revisions throughout earnings season as core freight pricing moves higher for most carriers. Raise tgts for EXPD, HTLD, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, ODFL, RXO, WERN and Ryder (R).
• In Railroads: Evercore CNI was upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore and raised tgt to $124 from $108 saying it appears heading into Q2 earnings that CN is set up for a material beat & raise for the first time in nearly three years. The firm lowered its tgt on CP to $91 while raised CSX to $47 from $46 and UNP to $294 from $277 saying the Class I rails are setting up for a Q2 earnings season filled with beats and raises as volumes largely accelerated throughout the period.

• Aerospace sector: Aerospace parts maker DPC Holdings (Doncasters) with ticker DPC raised $919.3M in US IPO; the company sold 27.9M shares at $33 apiece, above the marketed range of $28 and $32 apiece. The listing comes over six years after Doncasters' debt restructuring, when lenders took control from Dubai International Capital. Shares of space and satellite names extend recent declines since the SPCX IPO last week, with ASTS falling for a 5th straight day to lows $62.72, off all-time highs of $133.86 just a month ago. SPCX shares hung around the $150 level this afternoon, which was the opening price after its IPO last week (priced at $135). Shares of RKLB, LUNR, VOYG are all weak again.

• In Rare Earth/Critical minerals: The WSJ reported The U.S. Army will lease land on military bases to TII, IONR, ALOY for critical mineral processing, per WSJ. The companies are expected to invest ~$2B, with the Army receiving a share of mineral output instead of cash payments.

• Other semiconductor sector headlines: The MU results boosted the AI trade overall, lifting shares of SNDK, WDC, STX in the US and SK Hynix and Samsung overseas. At the same time, the higher margins for MU are being seen as taking away margins/FCF from customers that need memory chips such as META, GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN sending shares sharply lower on the open. QCOM raised its FY29 non-handset revenue target to ~$40B, roughly double its prior goal, including >$15B from AI data center infrastructure, and now sees FY29 EPS of >$18 vs. Street estimates of ~$14.75. Equipment stocks AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, MKSI, ONTO, ASML among biggest winners in semi space as MU pulling forward capacity expansion and now plans to spend over $45B in FY27, well above CY26 with expectations more likely going toward Tools and Equipment in the future. IBM introduced the world's first sub-1 nanometer (nm) chip technology, featuring a revolutionary transistor architecture at the 0.7 nm, or 7 angstrom nodes. IBM's new sub-1 nm chip packs nearly 100B transistors onto a chip the size of a fingernail, nearly twice the density of IBM's 2 nm chip, unveiled in 2021.

• AI Data Centers/neoclouds: AMZN said it will invest an additional $13B by 2030 in India to expand its AI and cloud infrastructure. The new investment is in addition to its planned $35B funding announced last year. The announcement follows a meeting between Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday in New Delhi. CRWV was initiated at Buy and $250 tgt at Rosenblatt saying Coreweave looks increasingly like the de facto operating system for Ai with over 1GW of active/3.5 GW contracted power and backlog was $100B at Q126. Seeing data center names such as CIFR, CLSK, IREN, HIVE, HUT, RIOT and other early weaknesses. HIVE shares fell after announced private offering of $100M 0% exchangeable notes due 2031 (had previously tapped the capital markets in April with an offering of $100M 0% exchangeable notes due Apr 15, 2031).
• Software movers: while semis rally, software continues to sell off hard with more declines in likes of MSFT, ORCL, CRM, HUBS, MNDY, NOW, TEAM and others as momentum remains in chip/AI plays with software falling; BB shares jumped after Q2 revs +26% y/y to $152.9M and raised its annual revenue forecast to $594M-$621M range from prior $584M-$611M view as forecasts annual QNX revs $295M-$2312M from prior $290M-$307M following the completion of its turnaround efforts. QNX has a backlog of almost $1 billion in future royalties. ESTC announced a 7% RiF and the CPO resigned/said expects non-recurring cash charges of $22M-$25M under plan.

Street Recommendations

Friday, June 26, 2026

• SHLS Barclays raised the firm's price target on Shoals Technologies to $10 from $9 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Shoals appears past its margin trough with a gradual recovery ahead, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While near-term headwinds may temper the company's upside in Q2, backlog growth and delivery execution should drive "resilient" core solar demand, contends Barclays. It sees Shoals' margins improving in the quarter.

• WGO BMO Capital analyst Tristan Thomas-Martin lowered the firm's price target on Winnebago to $38 from $48 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q3 results. The company's earnings miss and FY26 guidance cut were telegraphed by earlier industry participant results, channel checks, as well as reported industry retail/shipment numbers but generally in the ballpark of investor expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The management is doing a good job managing margins in a challenging backdrop and new products have shown some promise, but BMO trims its estimates and target price to reflect expectations for ongoing industry and dealer ordering softness for the rest of 2026, the firm added.

• BNL BTIG raised the firm's price target on Broadstone Net Lease to $23 from $21 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm attributes the stock's strong performance to continued momentum within their internal build-to-suit growth engine, improving transaction markets and portfolio reposition, as well as a solid capital position, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG adds that it expects Broadstone to remain opportunistic, leveraging the forward program and potential windows in the debt market to maintain a solid capital structure for growth.
• DRI BTIG raised the firm's price target on Darden to $235 from $225 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 comps came in better than expected, pointing to a resilient consumer as traffic increased across all income cohorts despite elevated gas prices and economic pressures, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The sales picture looks better than earnings, as higher marketing, pre-opening expense and diesel weigh on the latter, the firm added.
• XEL BTIG raised the firm's price target on Xcel Energy to $98 from $94 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company continues to steadily progress through its heavy regulatory calendar as it has now reached a Commission decision or settlement in four of six key cases, and the firm expects Xcel's historical premium to the UTY to return as regulatory clarity improves and large load momentum continues to build, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ALGT Citi analyst John Godyn upgraded Allegiant Travel to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $156, up from $98, which implies 42% upside. The company's acquisition of Sun Country Airlines "may be one of the best deals in the industry's history," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi sees "strong synergies" and believes Allegiant's earnings power in 2027 and 2028 could well exceed the current highest consensus estimates. Accretion from the deal could exceed 25% over time, contends the firm.
• WTW Citi analyst Matthew Heimermann added a "downside 90-day short-term view" on WTW while keeping a Buy rating on the shares with a $300 price target. The company has greater exposure than peers to international markets, which are being impacted by higher oil prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi sees potential for negative estimate revisions for WTW in the short-term.

• MKC Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on McCormick to $60 from $59 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's fiscal Q2 results were "better-than-feared" with solid Flavor Solutions performance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• RRR Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove initiated coverage of Red Rock Resorts with a Buy rating and $72 price target. The firm believes the regional gaming sector is seeing a "resurgence," with acquisition activity "putting a floor" under valuation and growth projects, setting up companies for positive earnings revisions. Red Rock offers a "compelling" 2027 earnings story, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman says the company has the "two-fold benefit" of lapping disruption headwinds from 2026 and harvesting the growth investments from its latest five projects.
• BYD Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Boyd Gaming with a Neutral rating and $91 price target. The firm believes the regional gaming sector is seeing a "resurgence," with acquisition activity "putting a floor" under valuation and growth projects, setting up companies for positive earnings revisions. Boyd offers strong cash flow generation, but its largest growth projects are more weighted to 2028 and beyond, with the next 18-24 months more of a transition phase, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• AMT Goldman Sachs assumed coverage of American Tower with a Buy rating and $215 price target. American Tower is viewed as the leading global tower operator and, because of its diversified portfolio across the U.S., Europe, emerging markets and its rapidly growing data center business, the analyst tells investors in a research note. It is expected to deliver the most consistent growth among tower companies, with mid- to high-single-digit AFFO per share growth supported by stable leasing, international expansion, data center momentum, cost efficiencies, and improved financial flexibility following resolution of the EchoStar dispute and leverage returning to target levels, the firm says.
• CCI Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng assumed coverage of Crown Castle with a Neutral rating and $95 price target. Crown Castle, the largest pure-play U.S. tower operator, is expected to face near-term pressure from lost EchoStar/DISH revenue and slower carrier leasing activity, but its long-term outlook remains supported by rising mobile data demand, future spectrum deployments, cost-cutting initiatives, potential valuation upside from its lower-risk U.S.-only profile, and improving AFFO per share growth as current headwinds ease, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SBAC Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of SBA Communications with a Neutral rating and $205 price target. SBA Communications is expected to benefit over the long term from structural tailwinds in mobile data growth, carrier densification, and future spectrum deployments, but near-term performance is likely to be weighed down by carrier consolidation, EchoStar-related disruptions, international churn in markets like Brazil, and higher refinancing costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• FUL JPMorgan upgraded H.B. Fuller to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $67, up from $58. The company is rowing adjusted EBITDA via higher prices and positive currency effects in a flat to lower volume environment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm thinks lower oil prices and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are likely to minimize or lower H.B. Fuller's raw material cost pressure in 2027.
• SR JPMorgan analyst Eli Jossen downgraded Spire to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $85, up from $84, after resuming coverage of the name. The stock's valuation gap to peers reflects near-term execution uncertainty rather than a pure mispricing, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan awaits Missouri rate case clarity and Tennessee integration proof points before turning more constructive on the shares.
• GOLF JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss raised the firm's price target on Acushnet Holdings to $118 from $96 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. JPMorgan also placed Acushnet on "Positive Catalyst Watch." The firm upped the company's Q2 revenue growth estimate to 11.8%, above the consensus of 10.3%, after its fieldwork pointed to upside across both the Golf Club and Golf Ball segments. Acushnet is seeing favorable sell-throughs on new product launches, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• AVAV KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on AeroVironment to $220 from $295 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm reduced the company's estimates to reflect a more gradual recovery in space-related revenue. AeroVironment is well positioned to capitalize on "secular tailwinds" in defense, but there is near-term variability tied to the Space Force's $1.7B Satellite Control Antenna Replacement program, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• VC Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Visteon to $130 from $115 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's investor day provided "more tangible drivers of its next phase of growth," ed by Toyota program launches and SmartCore HPC, says the analyst, who raised estimates after the event.
• SNX Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring raised the firm's price target on TD Synnex to $374 from $341 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The fiscal Q2 report reinforces the firm's view that TD Synnex is "emerging as one of the higher-quality stories in IT Hardware," says the analyst, citing durable distribution share gains and accelerating Hyve growth.

• NU Needham analyst Kyle Peterson initiated coverage of Nubank with a Buy rating and $17 price target. Nubank operates as a neobank and digital lender with a focus in Brazil, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the company is the largest global neobank with over 135M customers. This provides a customer base that can drive growth for Nubank in other Latin America markets, contends Needham.
• SYNA Needham downgraded Synaptics to Hold from Buy without a price target after On Semi announced an agreement to acquire Synaptics in an all stock deal at a fixed 1.350 On shares per Synaptics share, implying a $7B enterprise value.

• NKE Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Nike to $60 from $120 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Nike is expected to report Q4 results largely in line but still soft, with management likely to emphasize ongoing, increasingly aggressive repositioning efforts amid continued internal disruptions and macro headwinds in the US and abroad, while also signaling that 2026 will likely be a restructuring year, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CNTB Piper Sandler initiated coverage of Connect Biopharma with an Overweight rating and $7 price target. The firm cites rademikibart's "differentiated mechanism" and potentially unique position as the only biologic in development for acute asthma and COPD exacerbations for the bullish rating. Connect has a "near-term catalyst-rich setup," anchored by the September Seabreeze STAT topline data in asthma, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper's model estimates peak risk-adjusted acute sales of $165M and chronic sales of $1.26B.

• BB Raymond James raised the firm's price target on BlackBerry to $9.50 from $4.75 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's QNX standalone model to reflect an acceleration in average revenue per user growth to the high-teens, saying Alloy Kore wins are imminent. Raymond James now sees QNX revenue growth approaching 20% annually from 15% previously in the next few years with adjusted EBITDA margins in the low to mid 30s.
• PRQR Raymond James lowered the firm's price target on ProQR Therapeutics to $10 from $14 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. Based on the thesis that early data from the Axiomer RNA editing platform in healthy volunteers may translate into an effective therapy for biliary atresia, the initial Phase 1 dataset and additional key takeaways from ProQR's presentation further support a positive outlook on Axiomer-based candidates in biliary atresia and beyond, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• ZTS Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Zoetis to $85 from $95 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. After atopic dermatitis checks in international markets, mostly in the U.K., the firm reports that its diligence is "concerning for Apoquel." Consensus calls for FY27 and FY28 worldwide Apoquel sales to increase low-to-mid-single digits annually, but the firm's international checks suggest Apoquel share losses are accelerating and this may follow in the U.S. The firm, which lowers Zoetis estimates "again," notes that its FY27 and FY28 revenue estimates are "Street-low" and its 2028 EPS estimate lags Street profitability by a year.

• ON TD Cowen downgraded On Semi to Hold from Buy with a price target of $110, down from $115, following the company's announced plans to acquire Synaptics. TD believes in the data center growth and cap return story of the acquisition, but thinks the deal "adds complexity to an already complicated model." As such, the firm finds On Semi shares fairly priced at current levels.
• DYN TD Cowen initiated coverage of Dyne Therapeutics with a Buy rating and no price target. The company's Force platform is designed to overcome delivery limitations for therapeutics in neuromuscular and central nervous system diseases, the analyst tells investors in a research note. TD's key opinion leader checks indicate both the company's late stage programs, z-rostudirsen for exon 51 Duchenne muscular dystrophy mutations and z-basivarsen for myotonic dystrophy type 1, could be best in class.

• FCEL UBS analyst Manav Gupta raised the firm's price target on FuelCell to $22 from $7.25 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. FuelCell Energy and Fit Energy USA LP last week announced a strategic agreement for up to 380 MW of on-site fuel cell power for data centers, including an initial 30 MW order expected to begin delivery later this year, alongside an expanded production plan targeting up to 500 MW annually supported by a $200M-$275M investment over the next 24 months, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• FIZZ UBS analyst Peter Grom lowered the firm's price target on National Beverage to $33 from $35 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of next week's Q4 earnings report.

• CMC Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners raised the firm's price target on Commercial Metals to $80 from $77 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Management expects August-quarter EBITDA to recover by $40M-$50M quarter-over-quarter after a May-quarter miss driven by a $20M North American outage, with additional pressure from wet weather and new precast M&A margins running roughly 4% below target, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ALLY Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Ally Financial to $55 from $52 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of the Q2 earnings report.
• AMAT Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Applied Materials to $740 from $715 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Applied Materials' Memory & AP Master Class reinforced a constructive view of its deep product portfolio, with the company well positioned to deliver co-optimized and integrated materials solutions that support continued semiconductor scaling, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• HCAT Wells Fargo analyst Stan Berenshteyn raised the firm's price target on Health Catalyst to $1.75 from $1 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares to account for the pending Vitalware sale.
• FIG Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin lowered the firm's price target on Figma to $36 from $42 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. After attending Config '26, the firm's confidence has increased in Figma's intelligent canvas and design platform strategy and its ability to capture additional spending, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: AVAV CNXC

• China Composite PMI
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Prices M/M for April
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20-City index for April
• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 JOLTs Job openings for May
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Services for June
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: NKE PRGS STZ

• Goldman Sachs Digital Assets Conference, 6/30, in London

• 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payrolls for June
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:00 AM ET                 Construction Spending M/M for May
• 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: BSET FC GBX

• 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Average Hourly Earnings M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM EST                 Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Factory Orders M/M for May
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM EST                 Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Earnings After the Close: None

Friday July 3^rd

• U.S. stock markets are closed in observance of Independence Day

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