Early Look

Thursday, May 21, 2026

U.S. stocks are lower following a strong performance on Wednesday as investors digest another earnings beat and strong guidance from AI poster child Nvidia (NVDA) last night, though shares only trade little changed and then new reports coming out of Iran which weakened markets this morning. Oil prices swung following a sharp plunge Wednesday on hopes a deal to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz might be close. However, Reuters reported this morning that Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening Tehran's stance on one of the main U.S. demands at peace talks. US futures slipped on these headlines. Meanwhile quantum compute stocks IBM, GFS, RGTI, QBTS, INFQ shares jump after a WSJ report that the US to award $2B to quantum firms and take stakes. There was a big M&A deal in the apartment REIT sector as Avalon (AVB) and Equity Residential (EQR) agree to merge. Deere (DE) reported a quarterly beat in the industrial sector this morning while Wall Street awaits Wal-Mart (WMT) earnings. Also overnight in the IPO space, SpaceX filed for a major IPO that could raise over $80 billion and become the largest in history, while Anthropic recently announced its intentions to go public. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 1,879 points or 3.14% to 61,684, but the Shanghai Index dropped -84 points or 2% to 4,077 while the Hang Seng Index declined -264 points to 25,386. In Europe, the German DAX is up 107 points to 24,844, while the FTSE 100 is up slightly at 10,436. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed up 1.1%, the Nasdaq +1.5% ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report and the Dow topped 50,000 again. Treasury yields are spiking early with the 2-yr yield up 6.6bps to 4.1% and the 10-yr yield +5bps to 4.61%.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 645.47 points, or 1.31%, to 50,009.35
• The Nasdaq Composite jumped 399.65 points, or 1.55%, to 26,270.36
• The Russell 2000 Index surged 70.29 points, or 2.56% to 2,817.36

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims…est. 1.785M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for April…est. 1.41M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for April…est. 1.385M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for May…est. 18.0 (prior 26.7)
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May-flash…est. 53.8
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, May-flash…est. 51.1
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, May-flash…
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for May…prior 10

• Earnings After the Close: BULL CAE CPRT DECK FLO RAMP ROST TTWO WDAY ZM

• RBC Capital Canadian Industrials Conference 5/19-5/21, in Toronto

• Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Junko Koeda leaned distinctly hawkish, laying out a clear, structured economic framework that directly builds a case for ongoing monetary tightening. Koeda explicitly stated that the BOJ needs to keep increasing the benchmark rate. She argued that the BOJ cannot simply "look through" the negative supply shock caused by the Middle East war.
• Japan's April trade data revealed a substantial rebound, shifting the trade balance into a surplus of JPY236bn, more than doubling that of previous month. Total exports surged by 14.8% YoY compared with 11.5% in March, outpacing a more moderate 9.7% expansion in total imports, vs 10.9% YoY in March.
• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 11 11.9% vs +2.7% last week. Bulls fall to 31.7% from 39.3%, Neutrals rise to 24.7% from 24.1%, Bears rise to 43.6% from 36.6%.
• Many Fed officials called for central bank to drop rate-cut signal in April. Minutes from the late-April Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed officials favored a tougher stance on interest rates, with many wanting to remove signals of future rate cuts and supporting further rate hikes if inflation stays above the 2% target.

• Urban Outfitters (URBN) Q1 EPS S$1.30 tops consensus $1.16 and revs rose 11.4% y/y to $1.48B above the consensus $1.45B; Q1 Total Retail segment net sales increased 8.0%, with comparable Retail segment net sales increasing 5.6%; Q1 Comparable Retail segment net sales increased 9.8% at FP Group, 9.3% at Urban Outfitters and 1.9% at Anthropologie.

• Deere (DE) Q2 revs rose 5% y/y to $13.37B well above consensus $11.53B; Q2 EPS $6.55 also above consensus $5.70; reported a net income of $1.77B or $6.55 per share for the quarter, down from $6.64 a year earlier; reaffirms FY26 net income view $4.5B-$5B; said Higher shipment volumes and favorable price realization drove increased sales and operating profit in Small Agriculture & Turf division.
• EnerSys (ENS) Q4 adj EPS $3.19 vs est $2.99 on sales $988M vs est $973.9M, Q4 adj operating earnings $154.1M vs est $148.7Mm; guides Q1 revs $915-955Mm vs est $914.66Mm and adj EPS $2.70-2.90 vs est $2.62; declares a quarterly dividend of $0.2625 per share and sees FY CAPEX of about $70M.
• Nordson (NDSN) Q2 adj EPS $2.86 vs. consensus $2.82; Q2 sales rose 8% y/y to $740.8M vs. consensus $728.8M; Continued strength in demand with backlog up 18% compared to prior year; Q2 EBITDA a record of $235M, rising 8% y/y from $217M; raises FY26 EPS view to $11.30-$11.80 from $11-$11.60 (est. $11.45) and boosts FY26 revenue view to $2.93B-$3.01B from $2.86B-$2.98B; midpoint of Q3 revs also above views.
• SpaceX (SPCX) submits its S-1 last night for Nasdaq IPO. The listing could become the first U.S. market debut above $1 trillion and would immediately make SpaceX one of the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies. Of SpaceX's three divisions, only the connectivity segment powered by satellite internet unit Starlink was profitable in the first three months of the year. While Starlink generated an operating profit of $1.19 billion, it wasn't enough to prevent the company from booking a total operating loss of $1.94 billion in the first quarter on $4.69 billion in revenue. Its AI division, alone, accounted for $2.47 billion in losses on $818 million in revenue.
• Star Bulk (SBLK) Q1 adj EPS $0.57 vs EPS $0.52 on revenues $281.2M vs est $219.7M, Q1 adj EBITDA $114.3M vs est $109.7M as voyage revenues reached $281.2M and the board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50.

• Ares Management (ARES) said its Ares strategic Income fund: launches tender offer to purchase up to 19.8M shares tendered by shareholders.
• Intuit Corp. (INTU) Q3 adj EPS $12.80 vs est $12.57 on revenue $8.56B vs est $8.61B, Q3 operating Income $4.02B: raises FY26 adj EPS view to $23.80–$23.85 vs est $23.22 and FY26 revenue outlook to $21.34B–$21.37B from prior ~$21.0B–$21.19B while seeing Q4 adj EPS $3.56–$3.62 vs est $3.14 and Q4 revenue $4.25B–$4.28B on 11%–12% growth, plans 17% reduction in full‑time workforce with $300M–$340M in restructuring charges largely in Q4 alongside a new $8B repurchase authorization and a $1.20 quarterly dividend payable July 17, 2026.
• Raymond James (RJF) said client assets under administration (AUM) reach record $1.87 trillion in April, up 22% y/y and Assets under management $298.6B as of April 30, 2026.

• Kissei Pharmaceutical said doctors in Japan can again prescribe an Amgen (AMGN) rare-disease drug to new patients, reversing a recommendation made only days ago that clinicians avoid new prescriptions following 20 deaths among people taking the medicine. But Japan's Ministry of Health instructed the company to include new warnings for clinicians over potentially harmful side effects with the drug's packaging – WSJ.
• Lower prices for weight-loss pills from Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are prompting patients to switch from compounded medications to branded Wegovy and Foundayo, according to Reuters interviews with nine U.S. doctors.

• Applied Digital (APLD) announced it has entered into a long-term lease agreement with the same U.S. based high investment-grade hyperscaler that previously signed at Delta Forge 1. The agreement is for the Company's fourth AI Factory campus, Polaris Forge 3, located in a northern state and designed to deliver 300 MW of critical IT load. 15-year take-or-pay leases with the same U.S. based high investment-grade hyperscaler previously signed at Delta Forge 1, valued at approximately $7.5B in base-term contracted revenue, $18.2B if all options are exercised.
• Quantum Compute names seeing strength this morning after the WSJ reported The Trump administration is awarding $2B in grants to nine quantum-computing companies, including U.S. government equity stakes. IBM (IBM) will receive $1B of the package, with GlobalFoundries (GFS) getting $375M. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and Infleqtion (INFQ) are also expected to be awarded funds. Under the terms of the deals, which still need to be finalized, the government will receive a minority equity stake in each quantum company https://tinyurl.com/33hcnt2x
• Nebius (NBIS) shares jumped on reports the company will raise prices on certain NVIDIA GPU rental platforms, effective June 1, 2026; Roughly ~30% on on-demand (pay-as-you-go) rates across many NVIDIA GPU platforms; Various NVIDIA GPUs including H100/H200 series and newer Blackwell platforms.
• Anthropic expects a 130% revenue surge to $10.9B in the June quarter and its first operating profit; Anthropic generated $4.8B in sales in the first quarter; Anthropic set to turn an operating profit of $559M in the June quarter – WSJ reported.

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, May 21, 2026

U.S. stocks all over the place early, pulling back this morning after Reuters reported Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country's highly enriched uranium should not be sent abroad. Israeli officials also said that ‌President Trump has assured Israel that any peace deal must include a clause removing Iran's highly enriched uranium from the country. The news lifted oil prices, in turn Treasury yields after falling the day prior from year highs, which overshadowed a strong earnings and guidance report from tech/semi behemoth Nvidia (NVDA) overnight as major averages opened lower following good returns for the Russell 2000, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Wednesday. Stocks got a bounce around 10:00 am after Al Jazeera reported that Iranian Official denies reports that Iran's Supreme Leader said that Uranium must stay in Iran but still remain lower. The headlines continue to move markets and impact markets. In stock sector news, NVDA results helping lift the AI data center/infrastructure sector along reports of price increases for NBIS; hospital stocks (THC, UHS, HCA) slide on CMS headlines overnight; luxury retail rises on RL results while WMT in-line results and soft guidance; and quantum stocks IBM, GFS, RGTI, INFQ, QBTS rising on U.S. investment/stake headlines (see below). Overall, a very busy morning of news, including IPO fever with SpaceX providing details of its upcoming planned IPO with a valuation of $2 trillion, just a few days after reports ChatGPT-maker OpenAI has been working with bankers to prepare to file for an initial public offering in the coming days or weeks. Exciting times on Wall Street in the tech/Ai world, with big moves daily for semis, data plays, power stocks, while software names continue to bleed lower. Gold eased, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and high Treasury yields,

• Philadelphia Fed Business fell -0.4 in May below consensus 18.0 and down vs April 26.7; prices paid index for May down to 47.9 vs April 59.3, while new orders index plunged to -1.7 in May vs April 33.0. The employment index fell to -2.8 vs April -5.1and six-month capital expenditures outlook May 30.9 vs April 35.2
• U.S. Housing starts for April declined (-2.8%) m/m to 1.465M annual rate vs. 1.410M consensus and 1.507M prior (revised from 1.502M), Single family starts -9.0% to 930,000 unit rate; multifamily +10.3% to 535,000 unit rate. April Building permits rose +5.8% m/m to an annual rate of 1.442M vs. 1.380M consensus and 1.363M prior.
• S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash Actual 55.3 (Forecast 53.8, Previous 54.5) and S&P Services PMI Flash Actual 50.9 (Forecast 51.2, Previous 51.0).

• Hospital sector (HCA, UHS, CYH, THC): The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed today a sweeping crackdown on state Medicaid payment practices that have driven payment rates well above Medicare levels, leading to excessive federal costs. The Medicaid Managed Care State Directed Payments (SDP) and Medicaid Fee-for-Service (FFS) Targeted Practitioner Payments Proposed Rule would set clear caps and better align Medicaid payments with Medicare standards. If finalized, the proposed rule would generate an estimated $775 billion in total savings over 10 years, including $510 billion in federal savings
• Industrials: DE reported sales and revenue in Q2 rose 5% to $13.37B, topping analysts' estimates $11.53B, and reported a net Income of $1.77B or $6.55 per share for the quarter, down from $6.64 a year earlier but above consensus $5.70 as reaffirms FY26 net Income view $4.5B-$5B; the WSJ reported PH struck a deal to acquire the Aerospace and Defense unit of Circor from KKR for over $2.5B, according to people familiar with the matter. The sale would mark a huge return on KKR's initial investment into Circor. The private-equity firm struck a deal in 2023 to take the entire business private for roughly $1.6B, including debt. GGG said it agreed to acquire Valco Melton, a supplier of adhesive application and quality assurance systems, in a cash transaction valued at about $447 million, including the present value of expected tax benefits.

• APLD +17%; shares jumped after the company announced its fourth major deal (300MW) with the same high-credit customer who recently took capacity in its Delta Forge Location in Louisiana; The deal is valued at about $7.5 billion in base-term contracted revenue.
• CRML +4%; announced the execution of a definitive 15-year binding offtake agreement with ALOY for rare earth element concentrate from its Tanbreez Project in Southern Greenland. This agreement follows the Government of Greenland's April 17 approval of its ownership increase to 92.5% of the Tanbreez.
• ELF +3%; reported Q4 sales up +35.1% y/y to $449.3M and vs consensus ests of +27.2% and implied guidance of sales to range between $413-$424M in sales as beat was primarily driven by outperformance from Rhode, which saw sales around ~$112M vs implied guidance of $82-87M. The rest of the business was up around +1%.
• IBM +6%; along with gains in GFS, QBTS, RGTI, INFQ after the WSJ reported that the U.S. government will award firms $2 billion and take equity stakes in some companies. Those companies were named as the ones that will be awarded funds by U.S. government.
• NBIS +16%; shares jumped on reports the company will raise prices on certain NVIDIA GPU rental platforms, effective June 1, 2026; Roughly ~30% on on-demand (pay-as-you-go) rates across many NVIDIA GPU platforms; Various NVIDIA GPUs including H100/H200 series and newer Blackwell platforms.
• RL +10%; posted Q4 top and bottom line beat ($2.80/$2B vs. est.  $2.54/$1.85B), increases quarterly dividend 10% to $1.00 per share on better guidance; sees Q1 revenues to increase in the mid- to high-single digits on a constant currency basis, above consensus of a 6.9% rise.

• DE -6%; reported sales and revenue in Q2 rose 5% to $13.37B, topping analysts' estimates $11.53B, and reported a net Income of $1.77B or $6.55 per share for the quarter, down from $6.64 a year earlier but above consensus $5.70 as reaffirms FY26 net Income view $4.5B-$5B.
• KR -3%; after Bloomberg News reported new CEO Greg Foran is looking at big price cuts in order to win back market share and take on competitors like WMT, COST and AMZN and laying the groundwork for lower prices across product categories.
• INTU -19%; shares tumbled after Q3 results on weaker TurboTax revs, while growth rates across most of GBS decelerated Q/Q and management was unwilling to specially endorse its 15-20% long-term guidance range; the company also confirmed it would reduce its full-time workforce by 17%
• OFIX -15%; after lowering its FY26 revenue view to $838M-$848M from $850M-$860M (est. $854.43M) saying the FDA issued a final order reclassifying non-invasive bone growth stimulators from Class III to Class II devices. In connection with that reclassification, CMS recently updated certain billing requirements and Medicare fee schedule treatment applicable to non-invasive bone growth stimulators billed under certain codes.
• RKLB -5%; shares fell after announcing filing to sell up to $3B in common stock.
• STLA -6%; after revealing its new $70 billion plan to 2030 leaves investors focused on execution. The strategy update includes plans for 60 new car models by 2030, new technology investments, joint ventures with other carmakers and better use of its manufacturing capacity.
• WMT -7%; reported in-line Q1 EPS of $0.66 on better revs $177.8B vs. est. $174.84B though guidance was soft as sees Q2 adj EPS $0.72-$0.74 vs. est. $0.75 and net sales up 4%-5% while maintained its target of annual net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted EPS of $2.75 to $2.85.

Closing Recap

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

U.S. stocks closed at the highs in a strong showing, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished around 50K, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recouped much of their losses the last 3 days amid a broad based rally led by Technology (XLK) Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB), three of the top S&P sectors of the year, and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.5% today), while Energy (XLE) was the big laggard, falling over -2.4% but remains the top gainer on the year (+33% YTD). Market enthusiasm ahead of Nvidia (NVDA) earnings tonight was clear, with chip stocks seeing big bounces after a rare recent slide, as the Philly semi SOX index rose around 4.5%. Oil prices tumbled over 5% and Treasury yields sunk after a 6-week run, also providing support for investors. Smallcaps were among the biggest beneficiaries today or the lower yields (IWM was up over 2.5%), along with housing stocks and mortgage related names after the 10-yr yield jumped 70 bps since the start of the Iran war. After tech digests the NVDA earnings results tonight, markets get the world largest retailer earnings tomorrow in Wal-Mart (WMT) and Industrial machinery giant Deere (DE) earnings as well.

It seemed nothing could dent todays excitement as minutes of the Federal Reserve's April meeting showed officials warned the Iran war could fuel inflation, boosting support for a possible rate hike, with most policymakers saying tightening may be needed if inflation remains above the 2% target. @Bluekurtic noted on X, “S&P 500 is now positive for the week and could mark its 8th straight weekly gain, only the 20th time since 1950. This kind of momentum has rarely been followed by large drawdowns. In all 19 prior cases, the next 3 month max drawdown stayed below 10%. Every single time.” Still just mid-week, but does NVDA keep the Bull rally alive?

President Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages, while warning of further attacks unless Iran agrees to a deal, according to Reuters. "We're in the final stages of Iran. We'll see what happens. Either have a deal or we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won't happen," Reuters quotes the President as having told reporters on Wednesday. "We're going to give this one shot. I'm in no hurry. Ideally I'd like to see few people killed, as opposed to a lot. We can do it either way," Trump is said to have added.

IPO fever really picking up with some of the most highly anticipated IPOs in history are potentially coming in the next few months, following the massive semi chip related Cerebras (CBRS) hot IPO last week that opened at $345 after pricing 30M shares at $185. The other day, SpaceX (SPCX) announced it picked Nasdaq as listing venue for its initial public offering (IPO) and its initial public offering could be as early as June 11, set to list shares on June 12. Then today, the WSJ reported ChatGPT-maker OpenAI has been working with Bankers to prepare to file for an initial public offering in the coming days or weeks. Bankers at firms including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been helping the artificial-intelligence giant on a draft IPO prospectus it plans to file confidentially with regulators soon, possibly as early as Friday.

Even hawkish Fed headlines couldn’t dent optimism today: FOMC Minutes showed Federal Reserve officials' concerns about inflation being stoked by the Iran war intensified last month, with a growing number of them saying the Central bank should lay the groundwork for a possible rate hike, a sign that incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will inherit an increasingly hawkish crew of Central Bankers. Moreover, a majority of Fed policymakers at their April 28-29 meeting said some policy tightening may be needed were inflation to continue running persistently above the Central bank's 2% target. Investors are now pricing in a 48.6% chance the Federal Reserve could raise rates in December, and an 89.6% chance it maintains current rates at its next meeting in June, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

• After a massive surge in Treasury yields the last few weeks, raising inflation concerns, Yields today moved lower following a selloff in the previous session, as uncertainty persisted around the war with Iran and the path of inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last down 10 basis points on the day at 4.56% after reaching its highest level since January 2025 on Tuesday, surging to 4.687%. The 30-year Treasury bond's yield was down roughly 6.6 bp at 5.114%. It briefly touched 5.197% this week, its highest since July 2007.The shorter term 2-yr yield fell 8.5bps to 4.037%, off higher of 4.122% yesterday.
• June gold settles +$24.10/oz, or +0.53%, at $4,535.30 an ounce, while July Silver settles +$1.02/oz, or +1.36%, at $76.18 an ounce as hopes for a resolution to the Iran conflict pressured oil markets, relieving some inflation fears and knocking U.S. Treasury yields from their recent highs.

• Apparel Retail: VFC Q4 revenue of $2.17B topped estimates of $2.13B helped by strong demand in Americas region, reports annual revenue growth of 4% excluding contributions from Dickies brand, which it sold in late 2025, marking the first revenue growth following three years of decline.
• Off Price Retail: TJX reported Q1 top and bottom line above consensus at $1.19/$14.3B vs. consensus $1.00/$140.01B; and Q2 guidance was in-line with consensus while raises year outlook for FY27 comp store sales growth between 3%-4% (vs. prior 2%-3%) and EPS $5.08-$5.15, above prior view $4.93-$5.02.
• Specialty Retail: WRBY weakness from Tuesday discussed by Roth Capital saying the Google Io event from 5/19 included some modest new details around Warby's Smart glasses product, with the most important one being timing: available "this fall." While this was essentially in line with Roth's expectations, it may have been disappointing for some Smart glasses bulls, as WRBY stock was -11% on the day (vs. R2K -1%).

• Homebuilders: TOL Q2 results topped consensus as EPS $2.72 vs est $2.58, on home sales revenue $2.51B vs est $2.415B; Q2 adj home sales gross margin 26.2 raises full-year guidance across all key home building metrics as expects FY 2026 deliveries of 10,400-10,700 units, avg price $985,000-$1,000,000.
• Mortgage industry: ZG asked a court to stop real estate brokerage COMP from working with a Chicago-area multiple listing service to block access to home listings after Zillow established new rules around private listings on its site

• Utility/Power stocks CEG, VST, CEG, NNE, NG, OKLO, SMR, TLN and many others saw notable gains after PJM (the large regional grid operator covering much of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest) faces explosive electricity demand growth, mainly from data centers/AI loads, alongside generator retirements. This has caused tight capacity margins and record-high prices in recent auctions. Due to the needed energy, PJM yesterday merged the "Reliability Backstop" (emergency procurement of new capacity) with "Connect & Manage" (C&M) processes for new large loads. This streamlines timelines that were previously separate. Accelerates the centralized procurement to September 2026 (instead of waiting until 2027) to cover shortfalls from the upcoming Base Residual Auction. It still allows bilateral deals first between willing buyers (data centers) and sellers (generators).
• In Solar and Alternative Energy: TE shares rebounded around 30% a day after shares dropped after Fuzzy Panda Research disclosed a short position in the company. Two factors helping shares today as Hedge fund Situational Awareness LP, in a filing on Tuesday, reported a $43 million stake in the T1 Energy. The fund is run by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner. Also, Roth Capital defended shares off the Fuzzy Panda report saying they believe TE is currently FEOC-compliant, fully transparent, and a model for what the Trump administration may want in a domestic manufacturer that is transferring advanced technology capacity to the US.

• FinTech: Fintech startup Mercury raised $200M at a $5.2B valuation, up 49% from its last round 14 months ago. The company has 300K+ customers, including one-third of early-stage U.S. startups, $650M in annualized revenue and four straight years of profitability.
• Banks: MS and GS saw outperformance in generally strong day for financials; both being helped by recent headlines that the two are among the top banks headlining underwriting in upcoming SpaceX and OpenAI IPOS.

• IBRX said the FDA accepted for review the supplemental Biologics license application to expand the label for Anktiva in battling invasive bladder cancer
• IMVT and ROIV shares both surged after preliminary results from IMVT-1402 Trial in D2T RA. At the completion of Period 1, 165 of the 170 patients were evaluable for ACR20 response. Of these patients, 86.7% (143/165) had failed two prior mechanisms of advanced therapies, and the mean time since diagnosis was 12.8 years.
• PFE announced data from its Phase 2 study evaluating the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of a four-dose series of its investigational 25-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate PF-07872412 in infants compared to four doses of PREVNAR 20 at months 2, 4, 6 and 12-15.
• PSNL announced that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' (CMS) Molecular Diagnostic Services Program (MolDX) has expanded coverage for the company's NeXT Personal minimal residual disease (MRD) test.
• RLAY announces underwritten public offering of $175M of common stock

• In Aerospace: GS is said to have the leading role on the cover of SpaceX’s (SPCX) IPO, with MS also listed as a lead bank. SpaceX expects to proceed with its acquisition of Cursor 30 days after the company begins trading publicly, and if the deal doesn’t go through, SpaceX would pay Cursor a $10 billion breakup fee in cash – Bloomberg. VOYG awarded a subcontract by RDW, the prime contractor for the DARPA Otter program, to supply its high-precision Acceleration Measurement System
• In Paper & Packaging: PKG was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS as they expect the $50/ton June price hike to stick amid improving demand and tight supply. High utilization and prior capacity cuts (10% of industry) support pricing power, potentially adding ~$290M in annualized EBITDA (half in 2026).

• Components & Equipment: KEYS 2Q revenue/non-GAAP EPS of $1.7B/$2.87, 1% above/$0.55 above the Street and non-GAAP EBIT margin was ~33.3%, above both the Street at 27.4%; Q2 orders were $2,051MM (up 25% q/q and up 56% y/y and guided Q3 revs and EPS to ~$1.74B/$2.46 at the midpoint, 5% above/$0.30 above the Street.
• Software: ADBE, CRM, HUBS, MNDY, TEAM, WDAY resumed downward pressure early amid rotation back into semis - software names (IGV) had enjoyed three days rally while semis pulled back from highs; RBRK was upgraded to Outperform (from Perform) at Oppenheimer as believes: (1) Rubrik is benefitting from a sharp recovery in backup & recovery/cyber-resilience sector demand; (2) its product leadership across various workloads continues to improve; and (3) given Rubrik protects mission-critical workloads, higher memory pricing doesn't seem to be impacting demand, at least for now.
• Communications & Networking: VIAV shares dropped after announces pricing of 11.11M share offering at $45.00. RDDT shares tumbled  after GOOGL headlines updating its Ai Search features to make it easier for users to find information (Google Search is changing after 25 years, you may not see Blue links anymore). At Google I/o 2026, Google announced massive Ai-powered upgrades to Search, introducing Ai agents, conversational answers, custom mini apps and personalized Intelligence powered by Gemini 3.5 Flash.

• CPU chip makers ARM, INTC, NVDA all outperformed – Bank America noted today they update server CPU TAM to $125B from $110B, +31% CAGR, analyze oppty across: INTC, AMD, and ARM - said views agentic CPUs as additive to total TAM, not cannibalistic and CPUs now 6% of DC TAM vs 5% prior, still relatively modest.
• ADI Q2 revs 3% better than street and slightly street with GMs 73% vs street at 72.2%. July Q guided 8% q/q growth at midpoint vs and implied GMs 73%, 150bps above street. Strength driven by Autos, Industrials slightly missed
• ASML CEO said he had contact with Elon Musk about the Terafab project that aims to build chips for SpaceX, xAI and Tesla, Reuters reports following an interview on the sidelines of a tech event in Antwerp, Belgium.
• Memory chip makers MU, SNDK saw gains early on reports Samsung (SSNLF) union set to strike on Thursday, as approximately 48,000 workers are scheduled to begin an 18-day strike over bonus payments, posing a potential risk to South Korea's economy and global chip supply (and possibly raise memory costs). Media reports later noted Samsung Electronics and its South Korean labor union reached a preliminary pay deal on Wednesday, potentially averting a planned lengthy strike that threatened to disrupt the production of AI and other chips.

Street Recommendations

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• INTU Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow lowered the firm's price target on Intuit to $443 from $540 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a tax miss in fiscal Q3 and lower payroll growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes it will take time until Intuit shareholders gain confidence again. While tax suffered from lower units and some low-end competition and payroll faces strong compares, the bigger issue is management being very bullish going into the results, which created an expectations mismatch, contends Barclays.
• STEP Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish raised the firm's price target on Stepstone Group to $62 from $61 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a management fee beat in fiscal Q3 and its momentum looks set to continue with wealth flows showing continued strength into May, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TJX Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih raised the firm's price target on TJX to $190 from $183 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the Q1 beat. The company reported a consistent performance across income cohorts, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• AWK BofA analyst Ross Fowler lowered the firm's price target on American Water to $134 from $147 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its estimates to reflect the Administrative Law Judge's recommended decision in Pennsylvania-American Water Company's rate case, modestly lowering its Pennsylvania revenue assumptions and reducing EPS forecasts for FY26, FY27 and FY28.
• PGR BofA analyst Joshua Shanker lowered the firm's price target on Progressive to $320 from $325 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. April operating EPS of $1.31 was a miss, largely based on higher catastrophe loss activity, the analyst tells investors. The firm's EPS estimates for 2026, 2027 and 2028 decline by 2.6%, 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively, as the April miss flows through its model.
• IMVT BofA analyst Jason Gerberry raised the firm's price target on Immunovant to $43 from $32 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares, citing a higher peak sales outlook for IMVT-1402 of $6.8B, up from $5.5B previously, driven by greater contribution from Graves Disease and difficult to treat rheumatoid arthritis.

• ALGS Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Steve Seedhouse initiated coverage of Aligos Therapeutics with an Overweight rating and $20 price target. Pevifoscorvir sodium is a next-generation capsid assembly modulator being developed as a chronic suppressive treatment for Hepatitis B that aims to outperform standard nucleostide analog therapies by targeting the viral replication cycle earlier, potentially limiting replenishment of the virus's cccDNA reservoir while also suppressing viral DNA and RNA, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RARE Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Kristen Kluska raised the firm's price target on Ultragenyx to $96 from $84 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The investment case argues that GTX-102 may have a higher likelihood of success in treating Angelman syndrome because the associated Phase 3 design reportedly allows its primary statistical significance threshold to be split across two non-hierarchical endpoints -- Bayley-4 cognitive raw score and MDRI -- creating two independent paths to achieve statistical success, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• KEYS Citi analyst Atif Malik raised the firm's price target on Keysight Technologies to $396 from $320 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
• TOL Citi analyst Anthony Pettinari lowered the firm's price target on Toll Brothers to $146 from $162 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported a fiscal Q2 beat as luxury is outperforming in a "tough" housing market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites peer multiple compression for the target cut.

• INTU Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne lowered the firm's price target on Intuit to $400 from $540 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. A TurboTax shortfall puts shares "in the penalty box," the analyst tells investors.
• TJX Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti raised the firm's price target on TJX to $175 from $171 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

• AEE JPMorgan analyst Jeremy Tonet upgraded Ameren to Overweight from Neutral with a $126 price target.
• NVDA JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur raised the firm's price target on Nvidia to $280 from $265 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported results and guidance "solidly ahead" of expectations, reaffirming its leadership position in AI compute and its increasing momentum in networking for AI infrastructure, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan upped Nvidia's estimates citing improved visibility post the results.

• INTU KeyBanc analyst Alex Markgraff lowered the firm's price target on Intuit to $450 from $520 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Intuit Q3 results were mixed, and the more important observation is the multi-part transition underway, the firm says. KeyBanc appreciates restructuring around a focused, flatter, and faster organization with a reallocation of resources to growth, but TurboTax DIY headwinds and a pricing evolution across TurboTax/QBO are focus points today.

• HPE Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring raised the firm's price target on HPE to $33 from $25 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. IT hardware has been a relative outperformer in the last two and a half months given short covering and near-term spend resilience and demand pull-forward, the analyst tells investors. However, while the firm says it reflects the more-resilient-than-expected spending in its above-Street April and July quarter forecasts, it argues that the market is "missing 'the forest through the trees' as pull-forward, memory inflation/supply shortages, and macro create downside" margin and earnings risk in the second half.
• BRO Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang lowered the firm's price target on Brown & Brown to $60 from $65 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Most property and casualty insurance companies saw slower premium growth, but substantial underwriting profit in Q1, notes the analyst, who expects pricing and premiums to further deteriorate. The firm adjusted targets for the group following the Q1 earnings season.
• AON Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang lowered the firm's price target on Aon plc to $370 from $380 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Most property and casualty insurance companies saw slower premium growth, but substantial underwriting profit in Q1, notes the analyst, who expects pricing and premiums to further deteriorate. The firm adjusted targets for the group following the Q1 earnings season.
• KNSL Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang lowered the firm's price target on Kinsale Capital to $330 from $350 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Most property and casualty insurance companies saw slower premium growth, but substantial underwriting profit in Q1, notes the analyst, who expects pricing and premiums to further deteriorate. The firm adjusted targets for the group following the Q1 earnings season.
• AFL Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang raised the firm's price target on Aflac to $125 from $120 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Results were "generally strong" for life insurance companies in Q1 and the earnings momentum should continue into the rest of 2026 given the business momentum in international businesses and the continued improvements in mortality, the analyst tells investors in a note on the group.
• MET Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang raised the firm's price target on MetLife to $93 from $89 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Results were "generally strong" for life insurance companies in Q1 and the earnings momentum should continue into the rest of 2026 given the business momentum in international businesses and the continued improvements in mortality, the analyst tells investors in a note on the group.
• UNM Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang raised the firm's price target on Unum Group to $87 from $80 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Results were "generally strong" for life insurance companies in Q1 and the earnings momentum should continue into the rest of 2026 given the business momentum in international businesses and the continued improvements in mortality, the analyst tells investors in a note on the group.
• GOGO Morgan Stanley analyst Justin Lang lowered the firm's price target on Gogo to $7 from $8 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. With shares sitting near 52-week lows, the firm thinks investor concerns over legacy ATG customer churn have overshadowed green shoots associated with Gogo's refreshed product lineup, the analyst says. Investors will need more proof points moving through the year to get constructive, the analyst added.

• VRT Oppenheimer analyst Noah Kaye raised the firm's price target on Vertiv to $353 from $330 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's Investor Conference Day 2 underscored a differentiated value proposition based on accelerating innovation cycles, scale/breadth of offerings, and expertise across domains driving systems-level efficiency gains. The ability to translate the value proposition into higher wallet share vs. current mix-weighted $3.25-3.75/MW, in Oppenheimer's view, argues for upside vs. 2030 targets.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 4:00 PM ET                    Net Long term-TIC Flows for March

• Earnings After the Close: AGYS FATN YALA

• Waste Expo 2026, 5/18 in Washington, DC

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                 Pending Home Sales M/M for April
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AUNA CAVA EARN EDUC EGHT JHX KEYS MOVE RRGB TOL XELB ZTO

• Deutsche Bank Global Auto industry Conference, 5/19-5/20, in New York
• JP Morgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, 5/18-5/20, in Boston, MA
• RBC Capital Global Healthcare Conference 5/19/5/20, in New York
• RBC Capital Canadian Industrials Conference 5/19-5/21, in Toronto
• Truist 27th Annual Truist Securities Financial Services Conference, 5/19-5/20 in New York

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: BORR ELF ENS INTU NDSN NVDA SBLK STEP URBN

• Cantor Oncology Day 5/20, in New York
• Deutsche Bank Global Auto industry Conference, 5/19-5/20, in New York
• JP Morgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, 5/18-5/20, in Boston, MA
• RBC Capital Global Healthcare Conference 5/19/5/20, in New York
• RBC Capital Canadian Industrials Conference 5/19-5/21, in Toronto
• Truist 27th Annual Truist Securities Financial Services Conference, 5/19-5/20 in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Housing Starts M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for April
• 8:30 AM ET                   Philly Fed Business Index for May
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, May-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, May-flash
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for May

• Earnings After the Close: BULL CAE CPRT DECK FLO RAMP ROST TTWO WDAY ZM

• RBC Capital Canadian Industrials Conference 5/19-5/21, in Toronto

• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 10:00 AM ET                 Leading Index Change M/M for April
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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