Early Look

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Fed day is here, rate hike not expected, but Fed futures still have 30% chance of happening (so you saying there’s a chance?) S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures inched slightly higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy verdict this afternoon at 2:00 pm et, along with a backdrop of simmering Middle East tensions, while chip stocks struggled ahead of Big Tech earnings tonight/later this week. Global markets have been volatile this month as investors questioned the sustainability of the AI spending boom after signs that major U.S. companies were deepening a web of AI-linked investments and continuing to funnel billions into the technology even at the expense of free cash flow. The scrutiny comes as competition from China heats up, both in the race to develop advanced chips and as Chinese firms roll out cheaper AI models. Overnight, SKHY and STX reported in the HDD/memory space (details below). In geopolitical news, oil prices rebound after Yemen's Houthi group is considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the southern Red Sea, a week after declaring a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, regional sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The Iran-aligned Houthis on July 20 declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -930 points to 61,434, the Shanghai Index rose 15 points to 3,828, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 497 points to 25,807. The Kospi tumbled another 6% or 58 points to 887.20. In Europe, the German DAX is down -43 points to 25,420, while the FTSE 100 rises 22 points to 10,893. South Korea will reportedly hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday evening to talk about the market as its stocks came under immense pressure after a global selloff in tech stocks. Another very busy morning of earnings and tonight as well highlighted by results from META, MSFT as all eyes on more capex spending budgets.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 537.24 points, or 1.03%, to 52,747.32
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -55.17 points, or 0.22%, to 24,876.91
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 5.64 points, or 0.19% to 2,953.67

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy Meeting concludes; no changes to rates expected

• Earnings After the Close: ADPT AEM AGI ALGN ALKT ALRS AM AR ARIS ARM ASTL AUR AWK BBNX BBT BELFA BHC BHE BN BOOM CBZ CHDN CHRW CLB CMG CMPT CMTG CNMD CNXN COUR CP CRK CSL CVI CVLG CVNA CWH EA EFOR EG EIG EPR EQIX ESRT ESS ETD FCPT FICO FLS FMC FORM FTAI FTNT GFL GKOS GRBK HLI HOOD HXL INVH KGC LHX LRCX LUNG LXU MAA MAX MC MDXG META MGM MOD MORN MSFT MTG MTH MX MYRG NEU NFG NGVT NSP NEW OHI ORLY PBI PCOR PEB PFSI PI PLXS PMT PPC PRCH PSA PTC QCOM QTWO REG RGR RM RSI SBUX SFM SIMO SONO ST TDOC TENB TK TNK TREE TTEK TYL UFPI UIS VET VICI VTR WAY WFG WHD WWD

• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi rejected Oman's equal division of transit routes, put back a definitive counter under which one lane is entirely Iranian and part of the second lane also Iranian, and said the strait stays closed if Oman refuses.

• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Q2 adj EPS $1.44 vs. est. $1.18; Q2 revenue $1.03B vs. est. $999.68M; Q2 comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased 5.8% y/y.
• Ford Motor (F) Q2 adj EPS $0.42 vs. est. $0.35; Q2 revs fall -4% y/y to $48.3B vs. est. $45.86B; expects 2026 operating profit of $10B-$11B, up from a prior range of $8.5B-$10.5B; Q2 core profit rose nearly 20% to $2.5 billion, as strong U.S. demand helped offset tariff costs and broader economic uncertainty.
• Mondelez International (MDLZ) Q2 adj EPS $0.73 vs. est. $0.68; Q2 revs $9.36B vs. est. $9.2B; now expects at least 2 percent Organic Net Revenue growth, which reflects the strength of its YTD performance; maintains its Adjusted EPS growth in the range of flat to 5% on a constant currency basis.
• VF Corp. (VFC) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.25) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q2 revs $1.67B vs. est. $1.64B; raises FY26 revenue view to up 2% or better from up 1%-2% and sees FY26 free cash flow flat to up vs. last year of $405M; incurred $193.8 million in total restructuring charges in connection with reinvent.

• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Q2 adj EPS $0.47 vs. est. $0.46; Q2 sales $291.85M vs. est. $289.91M; Q2 adj net income $61.5M vs. est. $66.1M; guides Q3 revenue $290M-$320M vs. est. $304.3M; sees adj gross margins 44%-47% after Q2 46.8%; sees Q3 operating expenses $76M-$80M.
• Expand Energy (EXE) Q2 adj EPS $1.33 vs. est. $1.12; announces added $1B stock buyback; Q2 production averaged 6.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) during the quarter ended June, up from about 6.6 bcfpd in the prior year; average realized price of natural gas was $2.90 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), compared with $2.98 Mcf a year earlier.
• Veralto Corp. (VLTO) Q2 adj EPS $1.11 vs. est. $1.01; Q2 revs rose 8% y/y to $1.47B vs. est. $1.45B; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $4.35-$4.43 from $4.20-$4.28 (est. $4.25); raised its non-GAAP core sales growth to a range of 4.0% to 4.5% year-over-year, up from the prior guidance range of 3.0% to 4.5%.

• Arch Capital (ACGL) Q2 adj EPS $2.56 vs. consensus $2.46; Q2 net income falls 14.67% to $1.05B; combined ratio widens 2.3 percentage points to 83.5%; pre-tax current accident year catastrophic losses were $201 million, partly offset by $165 million reserve releases; Book value per common share rose 2.8% from March 31, 2026, to $68.04.
• CoStar Group (CSGP) Q2 adj. EPS $0.32 vs. est. $0.29, beat by $0.03; revenue $925Mm, up 18% year over year vs est $928.75Mm; gross profit $728Mm; adj. EBITDA $184Mm vs est $173.24Mm; Q3 guidance for revenue at $935Mm–$945Mm vs est $967.71Mm and adj. EPS $0.31–$0.34 vs est $0.38, both below consensus, while FY26 guidance is reaffirmed at revenue $3.715B–$3.755B vs est $3.799B and adj. EPS $1.32–$1.39 vs est $1.36.
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs saying despite a healthy top-line growth profile, believes faces a challenging path to reaching scale and profitability, and delivering market share gains.
• Lemonade (LMND) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.56) vs. est. loss (-$0.56); Q2 revenue rose 79% y/y to $294.4M vs. est. $291.52M primarily driven by a 32% increase in in force premium and higher premium retention following reduced quota share cession rates; sees Q3 revenue $323M-$326M, vs. consensus $320.69M; raises FY26 revenue view to $1.21B-$1.22B from $1.19B-$1.2B and also ups FY26 adj EBITDA loss view to $47M-$51M from $48M-$52M.
• Unum Group (UNM) Q2 adj EPS $2.16, in line with estimates; basic EPS $1.61; adjusted operating Income $346Mm vs est $487.85Mm on revenue $3.37B vs. est. $2.961B; FY26 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at $8.60–$8.90 vs. consensus $8.79; book value per common share $68.28.
• WP Carey (WPC) Q2 AFFO/shr $1.34 vs est $1.32 on revs $459.67Mm vs est $447.77Mm; now sees FY AFFO above 5% growth at midpoint vs est +0.15%.

• Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Q2 adj. EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.35, beat by $0.03; revenue $865.8Mm vs. est. $844.2Mm, above expectations on inpatient growth but pressured by higher costs; Q2 adj. EBITDA $149.2Mm vs. est. $148.2Mm; FY26 guidance updated to revenue $3.40–$3.45B vs est $3.409B, adj. EBITDA $590–$615Mm vs. est. $596Mm, adj. EPS $1.45–$1.60 vs est $1.51, and CAPEX $235–$255Mm.
• Biogen (BIIB) Q2 EPS $3.60 vs. est. $2.95; Q2 revs $2.736B vs. est. $2.46B; lowers FY26 EPS view to $12.00-$13.00 from $14.25-$15.25 (est. $12.72); FY revs now expected to increase by a mid-single digit percentage for 2026 as compared to 2025 driven by continued revenue growth from Growth Portfolio.
• Ge Healthcare (GEHC) Q2 adj EPS $1.13 vs. est. $1.04; Q2 revs $5.3B vs. est. $5.264B; reaffirms full-year 2026 guidance; said reviewing strategic options to maximize its long-term value; do not expect material benefit to ADJ ebitda margin and ADJ EPS from additional refunds for tariffs incurred in 2026
• Humana (HUM) Q2 adj EPS $7.61 vs. est. $7.00 and revs $40.87B vs. est. $40.57B; backs FY26 adjusted EPS view 'at least' $9.00 (est. $8.96) and says the FY26 adjusted EPS guidance anticipates a year-over-year decline as a result of the Star Ratings headwind for Bonus Year 2026, net of mitigation;
• NeoGenomics (NEO) Q2 adj. EPS $0.05 vs. est. $0.03; adj. gross margin 48%; adjusted EBITDA $14Mm vs est $12.81Mm, up 36% y/y as revenue rose 11% to $202Mm vs. $197Mm est.; FY26 outlook raised with revenue guided to $802–$806Mm vs. prior $797–$803Mm and est $800.43Mm, adj. EBITDA $56–$58Mm vs est $56.85Mm.

• Greif Inc. (GEF) Q3 EPS $1.61 vs. est. $1.13; Q3 revs $1.17B vs. est. $1.12B; raises FY26 adjusted EBITDA view to $615M-$635M from at least $610M and boosts FY26 adj free cash flow view to $305M-$325M from at least $315M; raised quarterly dividend by 10.7% and plans to start share repurchases.
• Landstar System (LSTR) Q2 EPS $1.44 vs. est. $1.46 on revenue $1.432B vs. est. $1.341B, up 18.2% year over year as the freight‑transportation market “rapidly” improves; quarterly dividend $0.44/share maintained; management commentary highlight better Freight demand but also higher Insurance and claims expense despite lower DOT accident frequency.
• PPG Industries (PPG) Q2 adj. EPS $2.23 vs. est. $2.26, slight miss; revenue $4.50B vs. est. $4.365B, beat, with organic sales up 4% and strength in differentiated Aerospace and architectural coatings Latin America businesses; company indicates Q2 pricing covered about 90% of cost‑of‑goods‑sold inflation and expects 100% coverage by Q4; FY26 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at $7.70–$8.10 vs est $7.90.
• Smurfit Westrock (SW) Q2 EPS $0.35 vs. est. $0.42; Q2 revs $8.03B vs. est. $7.93B; posted Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $1,140B and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 14.2%; said quarter was impacted by significantly higher input costs, particularly freight; fully expect to recover input cost inflation through second half of year and beyond.
• Waste Management (WM) Q2 adj EPS $2.02 vs. est. $1.98; Q2 revs $6.68B vs. est. $6.71B; cuts FY26 revenue view to $26.275B-$26.475B from prior $26.43B-$26.63B; said remains confident in its ability to deliver its full-year outlook for adjusted operating EBITDA between $8.15B-$8.25B and free cash flow of between $3.75B-$3.85B.
• Werner Enterprises (WERN) Q2 adj EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.23; Q2 sales rose 24% y/y to $933.97M vs. est. $932M; raises 2026 net capital expenditures guidance to $215M-$250M; expects TTS average truck count growth of 16%-18% for 2026 down from prior 23%-28%.

• Manhattan Associates (MANH) Q2 EPS $1.39 vs. est. $1.32; Q2 revs rose 9% y/y to $297.8M vs. est. $287.8M; said strong demand for cloud-based supply chain and commerce solutions drove revenue growth; raises FY26 EPS view to $5.44-$5.50 from $5.29-$5.37 (est. $5.36); raises FY26 revenue view to $1.160B-$1.166B from $1.147B-$1.157B.
• Qorvo (QRVO) Q1 adj. EPS $1.64 vs. est. $1.10, beat by $0.54; EPS $0.96; sales $784.8Mm vs. est. $743.5Mm, beat by $41.3Mm; FY2027 non‑GAAP diluted EPS guidance affirmed at above $7.00 per share, with non‑GAAP gross margin expected above 50%; company has discontinued conference calls and forward‑looking guidance updates due to the pending Skyworks deal
• Omnicom (OMC) Q2 adj. EPS $2.65 vs. est. $2.58, beat by $0.07; revenue $6.56B vs. est. $6.494, beat; core revenue $6.0B; operating Income $922.5Mm vs est $1.071B with operating margin 14.1%; adj. EBITA $1.13B vs est $1.212B.
• NXPI Semiconductor (NXPI) Q2 adj. EPS $3.61 vs. est. $3.50, beat; revenue $3.50B vs. est. $3.464B, beat; adj. gross margin 58% and reported gross margin 57.3%; adj. operating Income $1.23B vs est $1.185B with adj. operating margin 35.1% and reported operating margin 30.6%; Q3 guidance above consensus, with Q3 adj. EPS guided to $3.89–$4.32 vs est $3.98 on revenue of $3.65–$3.85B vs. consensus $3.77B.
• Seagate Technologies (STX) Q4 EPS $5.71 tops est. $5.09; Q4 revs $3.63B vs. est. $3.49B; generated a record $3.1 billion in free cash flow; sees Q1 EPS $7.10-$7.50, above consensus $5.86 and guides Q1 revs $4.0B-$4.2B, above est. $3.75B; sees durable long-term demand for mass capacity storage as Ai accelerates data generation and its value.
• SK Hynix (SKHY) reported record qtrly operating profit, but it missed analyst forecasts, raising concerns about AI spending; Quarterly revenue rose 257% to 79.3 trillion won, below a 84 trillion won estimate; operating profit of 60.5 trillion won for the April-June period, compared with 9.2 trillion won a year earlier and short of a 64 trillion won forecast; said delays in shipments of some advanced products limited DRAM price gains.
• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) Q3 EPS $1.08 vs. est. $1.03 on revs $934.8M vs. est. $925.6M; guides Q4 EPS $1.27, vs. consensus $1.30 and revs $1.01B-$1.06B vs. est. $1.03B; announces new $2B stock repurchase program.
• Teradyne (TER) Q2 EPS $2.47 vs. est. $2.05; Q2 revs $1.33B vs. est. $1.22B; Q2 net income $389M vs. est. $322.4M; sees Q3 revs $1.2B-$1.3B above consensus $1.03B on higher EPS $1.85-$2.15 vs. est. $1.44.
• Varonis Systems (VRNS) Q2 adj. EPS $0.04 vs. est. $0.01, beat by $0.03; revenue $180.0Mm vs. est. $176.8Mm, up mid‑teens year over year on increased cloud‑platform adoption; FY26 outlook raised with revenue guided to $735–$739Mm vs. est $734.81Mm and FY26 adj. EPS to $0.14–$0.15 vs. $0.12 est., alongside FY annual recurring revenue guidance of $819–$850Mm.
• Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted EPS $1.52 vs. est. $1.43 and revs $3.27B misses consensus $3.38B; sees Q3 adjusted EPS $1.77-$1.83 vs. est. $1.78 and sees Q3 revenue $3.65B-$3.85B vs. est. $3.71B; experienced minor timing shifts in Q2 revenue, primarily due to temporary supply chain congestion and multi-phased project execution; raises FY eps and rev outlook.

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, as oil prices spiked ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision which is due at 2:00 pm et and FOMC chief Warsh speaking at 2:30. Oil is up 7% on Iran's surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in the Mideast while President Trump responded, saying the U.S. will hit Iran hard. The new war developments come ahead of this afternoon's Fed interest rate decision where market odds are for 64% rates staying on hold versus 36% hike (increased over last week amid oil spike). No economic data today as all eyes on the Fred meeting, but data picks up tomorrow with GDP, jobless claims and the monthly PCE inflation data. Earnigns plentiful again overnight and this morning with big names out tonight including META and MSFT as Wall Street watches for capex guide (lower Capex hurts AI suppliers while higher Capex guides pressures free cash flow (FCF) for the hyperscalers as was evident from GOOGL last week). So far, of the 190 S&P 500 companies reported thus far for S&P 500, at 88% beat vs 81% LY and avg beat 11% vs 15% LY, avg miss -15% vs -35% LY while avg yr/yr earnings growth 23% vs 14% LY. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -930 points to 61,434while the Kospi tumbled another 6% or 58 points to 887.20. The South Korean finance minister said today to maintain 24-hour stock market monitoring system and to immediately introduce additional measures on single-stock leveraged ETFs/impose cap on investment in single-stock leverage ETFs.

• Auto Sector: Ford Motor (F) Q2 adj EPS beat at $0.42 vs. est. $0.35 while revs fall -4% Y/y to $48.3B but top estimates $45.86B and raises 2026 operating profit to $10B-$11B, up from a prior range of $8.5B-$10.5B; Q2 core profit rose nearly 20% to $2.5B; BMW (BMWYY) said it plans to cut 8,000 white-collar jobs in Germany through a voluntary severance program following a plunge in sales in China while reported a roughly 5% decline in second-quarter sales, driven by a 30% drop in vehicle sales in China. POAHY recently agreed to cut 5,000 jobs, while VWAGY is looking to shed as many as 50,000 white-collar staff the WSJ reported. KMX was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral at JP Morgan as above seasonal sales trajectory and stronger than expected price elasticity likely to drive upside revisions and support multiple near-term, with further support until post-Q2 investor day. In auto dealers and operators PAG (beats) and MNRO (mixed) also active on earnings.
• Paper & Packaging sector: after a good run on price increases, SW shares fell on results as Q2 EPS $0.35 missed the est. $0.42 on better revs $8.03B vs. est. $7.93B; posted Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $1,140B and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 14.2%; said quarter was impacted by significantly higher input costs, particularly Freight (IP, PKG, GPK other paper names). Separately, Citigroup said after IP & SW announced price increases for Na Containerboard over the last 24 hours, according to RISI (7/28), IP is out with +$80/ton for Containerboard in September, along with +$80/ton for medium and +$130/ton for whitetop linerboard; SW is seeking +$100/ton for Containerboard and Kraft Paper.

• CAKE +9%; as delivered an strong quarter and raised its '26 sales/margin guidance; comp store sales in 2Q26 (+5.8%) outpunched elevated expectations, with management anticipating accelerating momentum for 3QE (to +7% range vs. Street's +1.8%)
• F +4%; as Q2 adj EPS beat at $0.42 vs. est. $0.35 while revs fall -4% Y/y to $48.3B but top estimates $45.86B and raises 2026 operating profit to $10B-$11B, up from a prior range of $8.5B-$10.5B; Q2 core profit rose nearly 20% to $2.5B
• MANH +23%; shares jumped on the company's 3rd straight quarter of record bookings, Q/Q top-line acceleration, a bigger cloud subscription beat than recent quarters and raised its full-year outlook.
• MDLZ +4%; reported stronger than expected Q2 EPS of $0.73 and marked a return to volume/mix growth and the company raised its FY26 sales guidance, now at least +2% growth, up from flat to +2% previously, while the EPS outlook was reiterated.
• TER +4%; shares jumped on results reported adj. 2Q EPS of $2.47 vs. consensus $2.09 and our estimate of $2.07. TER guided above consensus, with sales and EPS expected 18% and 29% above consensus at the midpoint, respectively.

• CSGP -14%; downgraded by three firms after results as missed on bookings for the fourth straight quarter and cut its FY26 revenue guidance while Q2 revenue came in weaker than expected; also notes existing overhangs tied to multifamily competition, Homes.com scalability, and AI disruption fears.
• HUM -8%; shares fell after Q2 adjusted profit of $7.61 per share, above analysts' average estimate of $7.22 per share, and revs beat handily as well, but the company only reaffirms 2026 adj. EPS forecast of at least $9 saying they anticipates a y/y decline in 2026 adj. profit due to lower government bonus payments tied to Medicare plan ratings.
• LII -8%; as cuts its annual profit forecast to $23-$24 per share from $23.50-$25 prior after challenging residential market conditions weighed on its Home Comfort Solutions business in the second quarter; said Q2 sales in its Home Comfort Solutions segment fall 7.3% to $935.6M y/y.
• LMND -20%; CFO leaves; Q2 EPS loss (-$0.56) vs. est. loss (-$0.56); Q2 revenue rose 79% Y/y to $294.4M vs. est. $291.52M primarily driven by a 32% increase in in force premium and higher premium retention following reduced quota share cession rates; sees Q3 revenue $323M-$326M, vs. consensus $320.69M
• MAS -10%; shares declined following mixed Q2 results as EPS of $1.64 topped estimates but revs of $1.99B missed the consensus $2.09B; said the anticipated full year net benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds of approximately $85 million has led them to raise year EPS guidance.
• PG -3%; forecast slower revenue and profit growth in fiscal 2027; sees FY27 core EPS $6.89-$7.11 vs. consensus $7.05 following mixed results as EPS beat for Q4 but revs of $21.2B just missed estimates; sees FY27 sales growing in range of 1% to 3%, compared with 3.3% growth in 2026.
• PSN -41%; shares tumbled after Q2 revs fall -1% y/y to $1/6B vs est. $1.62B; Adjusted EPS for Q2 was negative (-$0.06) vs. est. +$0.76, missed expectations, impacted by portfolio and JV charges; Q2 adj Ebitda fell -72% y/y to $42M missing the $155M estimate; lowers FY 2026 revenue guidance.
• VFC -17%; reports bigger-than-expected quarterly loss of (-$0.27) vs. est. (-$0.22), hurt by elevated costs and weak demand for Vans brand though revs of $1.67B topped ests $1.64B; said incurred $193.8M in total restructuring charges in connection with restructuring plan.
• VRT -11%; beat the 2Q26 consensus EPS estimate, as margin outperformance more than offset lower sales, and raised FY26 sales/adj. EPS midpoints 1%/3% above the Street respectively. Revenue performance in 2Q reflected minor timing shifts related to multi-phased project execution and temporary supply chain congestion weighing on shares.

Closing Recap

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

U.S. stocks were volatile this afternoon as Wall Street tried to decipher Fed Chairman Warsh comments about the direction of interest rates after the Fed kept them on hold this meeting at 3.5%-3.75% but noted 2% inflation remains the target goal. The S&P 500 erased all losses and turned green on the day during his press conference after the Fed decides to leave interest rates unchanged while the Nasdaq also briefly turned positive. But once Warsh stopped speaking, Treasury yields surged especially on the long end as the higher long-dated yields slammed AI stocks/sectors again. Stocks sold off hard late day into the bell ending near the lows. It was a day dominated by higher oil prices weighing on markets as well as earnings results, until the Fed meeting took center stage, boosting precious metal futures and took the dollar and yields lower. Now tonight the focus turns back to earnings and the AI supply chain with MSFT and META earnings. Then it’s back to inflation with PCE and GDP data tomorrow morning in what remains a very busy week of news.

The S&P 500 (SPX) all things considered is not doing too poorly given the strength in consumer staples, healthcare, financials, energy and REITs, but it’s the sectors that have driven markets to record highs, mainly technology, semis and industrials that’s have sunk in July. Wednesday's tech selloff hit many of the companies key to the physical AI build-out, from equipment makers to heating-and-cooling companies to specialty contractors. Names like CAT whose power-generator business has boomed, data center infrastructure names like CIFR, WULF, HUT; Cooling specialist VRT tumbled, while power-equipment maker ETN slid as well. The moves show how tighter regulation, higher borrowing costs and fears of overextended hyperscaler capex are cascading through the data-center food chain.

Tech overall has had a brutal selloff this month: QQQ has been down 6 straight days and down -9% in July; the Tech sector in S&P (XLK) is down -11% this month. The PHLX Semi Index (SOX) dropped -5%, down over -10% this week and about -26% this month (still up 51% YTD) dropping below its 100dma support of 10,975 today. Bespoke Invest noted on X, “The SOX semis index fell 32% in the first 24 trading days after the Dot Com peak in March 2000.  It's down 28% in the 26 trading days since it peaked on 6/22.” In large cap tech, same story as ahead of META, MSFT earnings tonight (and AAPL, AMZN tomorrow), META came into the day with 8 day losing streak into earnings tonight, AMZN came in with a 6 day losing streak (below its 200dma of $234.50) and TSLA has fallen 10 of last 11 trading days approaching 52-week lows of $297.82.

• Restaurants: CAKE was upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and raised tgt to $80 from $50 after results and raised its '26 sales/margin guidance; comp store sales in 2Q26 (+5.8%) outpunched elevated expectations, with management anticipating accelerating momentum for 3QE (to +7% range vs. Street's +1.8%) - shares were downgraded to Hold from buy at Jefferies.
• Food sector: MDLZ reported stronger than expected Q2 EPS of $0.73 and marked a return to volume/mix growth and the company raised its FY26 sales guidance, now at least +2% growth, up from flat to +2% previously, while the EPS outlook was reiterated.
• Retail sector: VFC reports bigger-than-expected quarterly loss of (-$0.27) vs. est. (-$0.22), hurt by elevated costs and weak demand for Vans brand though revs of $1.67B topped ests $1.64B; said incurred $193.8M in total restructuring charges in connection with restructuring plan.

• Power & Equipment: BE delivered another decisive quarterly beat and materially raised FY26 guidance, reinforcing confidence that accelerating Ai-driven demand is translating into earnings growth. GNRC Q2 sales $1.17B just misses $1.18B estimate but EPS beat handily and raised its FY net income margin to 9%-10%, from prior view 8%-9%, maintains its FY net sales growth/posted 29% y/y growth in commercial and industrial segment revs of $621.26M, driven by demand for power from data centers
• Solar/Utilities: ENPH reported in-line 2Q results, with safe harbor revenue masking a 16% q/q core decline on intentional channel under-shipment. Margins improved as tariff pressure halved. The 3Q guide implies core revenue up ~11% q/q on a U.S. sell-through recovery.
• MPLs/Pipeline: OKE was downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, resumed KNTK at Overweight, and TRGP (OW, top pick) saying believes estimates for TRGP (OW, Top Pick) and KNTK (resuming at OW) do not properly reflect the likely production growth it expects in the Permian Basin. OKE cut given more limited comparative torque to Permian gas growth and greater exposure to more Bakken activity.
• Oil & Gas E&P: CVE raised its 2026 production outlook after reporting a more than threefold jump in second-quarter profit/ raised its full-year upstream production forecast by 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to between 970,000 boepd and 1.01 million boepd.

• Exchanges & Brokers: CME is partnering with FutureSports to launch traditional derivatives tied to professional and college sports, the exchange operator said, aiming to offer an alternative to event-based contracts traded on prediction market platforms. The first monthly and quarterly cash-settled futures will begin trading this summer, with FutureSports expected to unveil additional contracts.
• Lending sector: SOFI slides on results despite beat and raise quarter as year EPS view just in-line; UPST signed a multi-year agreement with Castlelake, whose funds will purchase up to $4 billion of consumer loans originated through Upstart over the next 24 months.
• Insurance sector: LMND shares fall as CFO leaves; Q2 EPS loss (-$0.56) vs. est. loss (-$0.56); Q2 revenue rose 79% Y/y to $294.4M vs. est. $291.52M primarily driven by a 32% increase in in force premium and higher premium retention following reduced quota share cession rates; sees Q3 revenue $323M-$326M, vs. consensus $320.69M
• Real Estate Services: CSGP shares tumbled, downgraded at Citigroup, KBW and William Blair after results as missed on bookings for the fourth straight quarter and cut its FY26 revenue guidance while Q2 revenue came in weaker than expected; also notes existing overhangs tied to multifamily competition, Homes.com scalability, and AI disruption fears.
• In Banks: BANC swung to a loss in Q2 as it overhauled its balance by unloading $2.3B of lower-yielding securities, initiated sale of $827M of select commercial real estate and multi-family construction loans and retired $385M of subordinated debt; Q2 NII also missed estimates.
• U.S. annuity sales have consistently topped $100 billion per quarter for nearly three years, and the records continue to fall. In the second quarter of 2026, the trade group Limra reported annuity sales of $123.9 billion, the most ever recorded. Sales also set a first-half record of $231.3 billion. The second-quarter mark, which was the 11th consecutive period that annuity sales topped $100 billion, represented a 4% year-over-year increase. Limra says that its tally captures only 84% of the U.S. annuity market, so the figures are an undercount.

• IONS said Frank Bennett, chief scientific officer, to retire. Bennett will serve as a strategic consultant for a period after his retirement to support the transition. His responsibilities will be assumed by Eric Swayze, Ph.D., EVP, head of research
• QURE shares rallied behind earnings and after said it is on track to file Huntington's disease gene therapy AMT-130 for approval in U.S., UK in Q3. U.S. FDA told uniQure accelerated approval filing based on current data is reasonable, while discussions on confirmatory study continue.
• TEVA 2Q revs $4.14B (vs. $4.02B cons) and EBITDA $474M (vs. $424M cons), with Austedo and Ajovy well ahead of street. The company raised its rev guidance to $16.5B to $16.85B (vs. $16.4B to $16.8B prior) and reaffirmed EBITDA and EPS guide.

• CMS released 2027 Medicare Part D bid information, and in a development with potential significant implications for PDP carriers, announced its intent to terminate the Medicare Part D premium stabilization program after 2026 (link). The program is projected to provide ~$3.6 billion of federal subsidies in 2026 to help suppress the underlying inflationary impact on standalone PDP premiums of IRA-based statutory mandates to cap maximum out-of-pocket costs and shift Part D cost liability to carriers and away from beneficiaries and the federal government
• MedTech: BSX Q2 beat ($$0.86/$5.44B revs vs. est. $0.83/$6.36B) though lowers 2026 adjusted profit forecast to $3.28-$3.32 per share from prior $3.34-$3.41 view and cuts reported sales-growth outlook to 5.5% to 6.5% from 7% to 8.5%; said now expects 2H’26 to be more "pressured" than anticipated.
• Healthcare Services: HIMS shares fell after The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is suing the company alleging the Telehealth platform shared users' health data with online advertisers despite promising privacy and engaged in deceptive billing and cancellation practices. NEO reported better than expected 2Q revenue and earnings. Gross margins expanded to 45.6% (48.1% adjusted), up from 42.6% LY and 43.3% LQ. Management let the upside flow through the guidance, raising 2026 revenue expectations to $802-806 million (was $797-803 million) and Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $56-58M (was $55-57M).

• In Transports: LSTR Revenue increased 18% y/y, exceeding estimates, while variable contribution increased 17% and beat Stifel expectations by 9%/truck revenue per load increased 17% y/y and 14.4% sequentially, the strongest sequential improvement in ~15 years, while loads increased 2% y/y; ODFL Q2 revs rose 10% to $1.55B vs. est. $1.54B as higher rates helped increase the company's LTL revs per hundred pounds of freight, while shipments per day fell 5.7%/expenses grew just 3.7%; WERN Q2 adj EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.23; Q2 sales rose 24% Y/y to $933.97M vs. est. $932M; raises 2026 net capex to $215M-$250M; expects TTS average truck count growth of 16%-18% for 2026 from prior 23%-28%.
• Heavy Equipment/Machinery: CR reported Q2 revs $724.7M above Street $708.5M on better earning and raised 2026 guidance for EPS of $6.85-$7.05 from $6.65-$6.85 with revenue of $2.87-$2.90 billion from $2.845-$2.875 billion/organic sales growth expected up 5-6% (4-6% prior)

• Satellite sector: ASTS was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Scotia with a price target of $50.80 saying valuation is "now in a grey area" between $40 and $60 per share following a 43% selloff since early January, and  sees opportunities and risks as "fairly priced in."
• Telecom: VZ, TMUS, T shares saw volatility this afternoon after a report in Semafor noted Elon Musk is coming for your cell phone network. SpaceX (SPCX), which is trying to fill a hole in its airwaves crucial for a full-service wireless network, has been hunting for spectrum that works well in cities and dense areas. . The company is considering buying competitors to acquire the spectrum or competing at a government auction set for next year, per the report.

• Software moves: MANH shares jumped on the company's 3rd straight quarter of record bookings, Q/Q top-line acceleration, a bigger cloud subscription beat than recent quarters and raised its full-year outlook. BAND shares tumbled on results and guidance.
• Hardware & Components: APH shares jumped on results as the fiber optic connector company saw adjusted EPS surge 67% y/y to $1.35, while sales jumped 55% y/y to $8.8B. Both top and bottom line results beat expectations & booked record orders in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.23:1.

• Memory: SKHY reported record Q2 results in its first earnings release since listing on Nasdaq, with revenue and operating profit below Wall Street estimates. Quarterly revenue rose 257% to 79.3 trillion won, below a 84 trillion won estimate; operating profit of 60.5 trillion won for the April-June period, compared with 9.2 trillion won a year earlier and short of a 64 trillion won forecast; said delays in shipments of some advanced products limited DRAM price gains.
• HDD sector: STX blowout quarter fueled by the Ai infrastructure buildout; the data-storage company delivered a top and bottom line beat and better-than-expected guidance for all topline/OM/EPS on continued strong pricing, favorable mix, HAMR adoption. Demand remains exceptionally strong on hyperscalers, Ai workloads, and growing data retention. Management said they expect revenue/GM/profitability/FCF to increase sequentially throughout FY27.
• Analog Semi: NXPI reported strong Q2 results and Q3 guidance, which exceeded expectations as the upside was mostly driven by Industrial IOT, which grew +38% Y/y and Comm Infra/Other (+41% Y/y), while Auto grew +12% Y/y; noted demand improved across all segments.
• Semi equipment: KLAC Q4 results exceeded consensus estimates and co guided for further QQ and YY acceleration into FQ1(Sept) and the back half of the year; said its FY-end RPO backlog increased +60% yr-to-yr, to $12.5B, aligned with its commentary around extended visibility. TER shares jumped on results reported adj. 2Q EPS of $2.47 vs. consensus $2.09 and our estimate of $2.07. TER guided above consensus, with sales and EPS expected 18% and 29% above consensus at the midpoint, respectively
• iPhone suppliers: SWKS posted strong F3Q (Jun) results and provided mixed F4Q (Sep) guidance. Smartphone revs were stronger than expected and better than feared as smartphone demand is characterized as stable, while flat iPhone 18 content was reiterated as being flat vs. iPhone 17. However, given increasing input costs and fixed pricing, GMs are expected to decline q/q in F4Q. Also likely selloff driver: dividend elimination.

Street Recommendations

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

• GLW Barclays analyst Tim Long lowered the firm's price target on Corning to $129 from $180 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company reported a slight beat with limited optical upside, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that given the stock's "high implied AI valuation," more optical upside and margin ramp is necessary.
• LOGI Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Logitech to $101 from $105 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The semiconductor supplier shutdown is depressing Logitech's otherwise stable demand momentum into the end of the fiscal year, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• OSK Barclays raised the firm's price target on Oshkosh to $170 from $150 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's Q2 results were better than expected but fire production challenges, higher overhead costs, and a "demanding" Q4 step-up "leave execution as the primary debate," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• PM Barclays analyst Pallav Mittal raised the firm's price target on Philip Morris to $225 from $205 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm views the negative impacts on IQOS in 2026 as transitory. With favorable U.S. regulation, Barclays is positive on IQOS and pouch volumes in the medium term, the analyst tells investors in a research note. It thinks Philip Morris could return to a "beat-and-raise narrative" as ZYN regains some of its lost share.
• R Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski raised the firm's price target on Ryder to $300 from $290 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the Q2 trucking results thus far have reflected improving contract rates, freight volumes that appear to be inflecting positively and mostly higher forward company guidance.

• V BofA analyst Matthew O'Neill raised the firm's price target on Visa to $430 from $410 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Visa remains "one of the highest quality compounders in payments" and its fiscal Q3 beat and slight fiscal year raise reinforces the model's durability, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• BKR BofA analyst Saurabh Pant raised the firm's price target on Baker Hughes to $74 from $71 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After earnings, the firm is raising its pro-forma 2028 and 2029 EBITDA estimates by about 3% each to reflect 2026 order momentum converting to revenues as previously announced new Power Systems capacity comes online by mid-2027 and ramps up into 2028.
• RCL BofA raised the firm's price target on Royal Caribbean to $330 from $310 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Q2 results and the outlook were "broadly in line" with the firm's earnings preview, says the analyst, who adds that the 2.0% full-year net yield outlook was reiterated, reflecting confidence in a meaningful Q4 acceleration.
• CNC BofA analyst Kevin Fischbeck raised the firm's price target on Centene to $78 from $74 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The "most important datapoint" from the company's report and call is Centene indicated 50c of EPS upside related to 2025 that should be adjusted out of the 2026 baseline, but didn't spike out any other adjustments, implying a baseline of $4.30, pointing to above consensus 2027, the analyst tells investors.
• TXT BofA analyst Ronald Epstein raised the firm's price target on Textron to $95 from $90 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Shares reacted negatively following the Q2 print, which the firm says is due primarily to aviation deliveries and margins below expectations. Margins should recover as deliveries improve in Q4 and into 2027, and orders remain strong, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

• MDLZ BTIG analyst Rob Dickerson raised the firm's price target on Mondelez to $73 from $70 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its better-than-expected Q2 results. The company's North America business returned to positive volume and sales mix growth, helping drive total company volume and mix to its best result in 10 quarters, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With improved profitability expected next year off lower input costs, Mondelez' EBITA should expand, the firm added.
• CSGP BTIG lowered the firm's price target on CoStar Group to $42 from $55 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company missed on bookings for the fourth straight quarter and cut its FY26 revenue guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• MDGL Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Madrigal Pharmaceuticals to $587 from $578 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of Q2 results where they expect a positive report and continued strong Rezdiffra revenue growth.

• PYPL Citi analyst Bryan Keane raised the firm's price target on PayPal to $61 from $48 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares post the Q2 report. The company's branded checkout investments have created initial stability, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites improved visibility for the target increase.
• DIS Citi analyst Jason Bazinet lowered the firm's price target on Disney to $135 from $145 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees risk to Disney's fiscal 2026 guidance. While attendance volumes are "healthy" in fiscal Q3, Disney's U.S. attendance growth has been "muted," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• RCL Citi raised the firm's price target on Royal Caribbean to $362 from $327 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company spoke of positive trends on the earnings call, which reversed the initial post-earnings selloff, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes 2027 consensus estimates could be difficult to hit if the Middle East conflict continues.
• KNSA Citi analyst Geoff Meacham raised the firm's price target on Kiniksa to $100 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q2 report as "robust." It sees increasing commercial durability from Arcalyst and visibility toward a multi-asset commercial franchise for Kiniksa.
• V Citi raised the firm's price target on Visa to $440 from $400 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported "broad-based outperformance" in the quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi sees fiscal 2027 as another strong year above recent growth rates for Visa.
• CSGP Citi downgraded CoStar Group to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $33, down from $70. The company's booking inflection is not materializing with the revenue guidance cut, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi cites its lowered growth expectations for the downgrade, saying a multiple rebound in 2026 is now off the table.
• F Citi upgraded Ford to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $20, up from $19. Only three of the 18 analysts that cover Ford have a Buy rating but the company's momentum is turning, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes F-series production ramps, lower warranty accruals, better aluminum supply and easing material costs are positive for Ford's second half of 2026. The firm cites this improving momentum for the upgrade. The stock in premarket trading is up 7%, or $1.04, to $16.00.

• CSGP Goldman Sachs analyst George Tong lowered the firm's price target on CoStar Group to $40 from $46 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. CoStar's investment case is shifting toward monetization, productivity, and margin expansion, with improving profitability and AI-driven opportunities offsetting near-term revenue growth pressure from weaker bookings, competition, and Homes.com sales force optimization, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• MDLZ Goldman Sachs analyst Leah Jordan raised the firm's price target on Mondelez to $72 from $65 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Mondelez delivered a Q2 EPS and organic sales beat, driven by North America strength and improved volume trends, while continued brand investment supports confidence in sustained growth into 2H26 and FY27, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CAKE Jefferies downgraded Cheesecake Factory to Hold from Buy with a price target of $88, up from $75. The firm views the company's Q2 report as strong and likes Cheesecake's long-term growth opportunity. However, with the shares up 42% since the Q1 earnings report, Jefferies sees limited upside from here. It cites valuation for the downgrade.
• KO Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala raised the firm's price target on Coca-Cola to $104 from $95 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following "another beat & raise," fueled by strong volumes during the World Cup selling season. As the debate shifts to 2027-28, the firm thinks Coke's momentum will endure and thinks numbers are "too low" despite tough comps and a volatile consumer, the analyst tells investors.

• PCAR JPMorgan analyst Tami Zakaria raised the firm's price target on Paccar to $164 from $155 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the earnings report. The firm says the bear thesis on Paccar continues to weaken with a positive earnings revision cycle ahead. JPMorgan expects the company's North America truck builds to grow over the coming years.
• V JPMorgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang raised the firm's price target on Visa to $450 from $400 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported "another impressive quarter" with 12% organic growth on "healthy drivers," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan left Visa's fiscal Q3 report "feeling incrementally constructive."
• KLAC JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur raised the firm's price target on KLA Corp. to $238 from $200 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company reported a "strong beat-and-raise" quarter and lifted its 2026 wafer fab equipment outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says KLA remains its top pick in semiconductor capital equipment.

• ENPH Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Enphase Energy to $45 from $54 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares post the Q2 report. The firm cites the company's slower than expected revenue recovery and mark-to-market discount rates for the target cut. Enphase's Q3 revenue outlook came in better than consensus estimates, but mainly driven by higher safe harbor revenues, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CAKE Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour upgraded Cheesecake Factory to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $80, up from $50. The company's strong fundamentals are extending into Q3 and there could continue to be quarterly beats, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Cheesecake deserves credit for a 5.8% comp in its core brand. The company's comparisons get easier through the second half of 2026 and the setup "seems relatively attractive," contends Morgan Stanley.
• KNTK Morgan Stanley analyst Robert Kad resumed coverage of Kinetik Holdings with an Overweight rating and $64 price target. As the only pure-play Permian Basin midstream company, Kinetik's Delaware assets are well positioned to participate in "inflecting" Permian associated gas production growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes alleviation of the Permian natural gas pipeline bottlenecks will support processing volume growth in the second half of 2026.
• INCY Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Incyte to $119 from $104 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. A "solid" Q2 underscored consistency in the base business and a focus on pipeline execution across core segments, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• KLAC Morgan Stanley analyst Shane Brett lowered the firm's price target on KLA Corp. to $253 from $274 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Similar to last quarter, this print "offered something for both bulls and bears" and near-term numbers were "underwhelming as previewed," but the firm is more confident on the 2027 story, the analyst tells investors.
• KO Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian raised the firm's price target on Coca-Cola to $100 from $89 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Even with a high bar, Q2 results were "impressive," with strong 5% unit case growth far above the 2.2% consensus as well as Coke's 1.1% last nine quarter average, the analyst tells investors. Coke remains the analyst's Top Pick, citing sustained competitive advantage over peers as well as "more robust and sustained pricing power" than consumer packaged goods peers in general, the analyst added.
• NXPI Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore raised the firm's price target on NXP Semiconductors to $338 from $335 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Q2 came in broadly in-line, though this was "a more measured result relative to peers," the analyst tells investors. While the quarter was softer than investor expectations, the firm remains constructive on NXP's execution, the analyst added.

• CSGP Needham lowered the firm's price target on CoStar Group to $40 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is citing the company's mixed Q2 results with a top-line miss and below-consensus revenue guidance while also noting that its price target cut reflects a broader multiple compression for real estate technology stocks, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• VRNS Needham raised the firm's price target on Varonis to $50 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company raised its 2026 SaaS annualized recurring revenue ex-conversion guidance for a true beat-and-raise quarter, with the firm also noting its growing momentum from new products Atlas, Interceptor, and Database Activity Monitoring, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• ITRI Needham analyst Sean Milligan raised the firm's price target on Itron to $128 from $116 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q2 earnings beat. Margin durability is now established and the debate narrows to order intake and the right multiple, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• NEO Needham raised the firm's price target on NeoGenomics to $19 from $15 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise. Organic revenue growth improved to 11% in Q2 from 9% in Q1 as 14% growth in Clinical was partially offset by a 15% decline in Non-Clinical, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• JHX Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on James Hardie to $32 from $30 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm spoke with over 80 building product dealers and distributors the past few weeks to assess opportunities for James Hardie. Feedback supports the potential for a broader Boise Cascade rollout and reinforced the strategic value of its broad portfolio of exterior home products. Oppenheimer also updated its model following the company's Q1 pre-announcement, which reinforces its view that James Hardie remains a company-specific growth story driven more by execution than by broader housing trends.
• GLW Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Corning to $200 from $230 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported better-than-expected Q2 core sales/EPS, and management reiterated that Corning is well on track to deliver the Springboard plan, validated by 65% year-over-year growth in enterprise network including a doubling of gen AI revenues. Oppenheimer finds the recent selloff in the stock overdone and sees a buying opportunity following the pullback.
• CAKE Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on Cheesecake Factory to $101 from $91 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Consistent with the firm's preview, Cheesecake Factory delivered an outstanding quarter and raised its 2026 sales/margin guidance. As Oppenheimer analyzes the outlook, it continues to identify pockets of conservatism and believes this positions the model for an ongoing positive revision cycle.
• ENPH Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Enphase Energy to $56 from $57 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. While the U.S. residential solar demand recovery remains slow, the firm believes the industry is gaining modest momentum as Enphase nears a positive product cycle including entrance into new market segments, larger commercial batteries, solid state transformers for data centers, and broader medium voltage applications. Oppenheimer is encouraged by consistent progress on new product preparation and cost reduction efforts in context of disciplined OpEx spending. The firm sees potential for battery sales inflecting by Q4 2026, but is not modeling a substantial uptick until 2027.

• UPS Stephens lowered the firm's price target on UPS to $130 from $135 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Slight upside in Q2 and a marginal consolidated full year guidance raise was "overshadowed in the details," with the critical U.S. Domestic unit's implied second half profit outlook coming down modestly, the analyst tells investors. UPS "remains a show-me story for good reason," adds the analyst, who is trimming the firm's 2027 EPS estimate 2% to $8.25 following the Q2 report.

• MGM Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on MGM Resorts to $53 from $52 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q2 results where they believe it seems likely that MGM will take control of Bet/MGM most likely when/if online gambling valuations recover.
• PYPL Susquehanna analyst James Friedman raised the firm's price target on PayPal to $67 from $63 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm said from an operating perspective, the new CEO shared a clear strategy to improve its performance by growing Consumer Financial Services. And this approach is already delivering results,
• RCL Susquehanna analyst Christopher Stathoulopoulos raised the firm's price target on Royal Caribbean to $372 from $350 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q2 results and while the timing of Perfect Day Mexico is uncertain, revenue opportunities for FY27 remain full, with the launch of Hero of the Seas and Celebrity River Cruises.
• STX Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Seagate to $875 from $775 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm raised its estimates following its quarterly report where the the standout takeaway remains the company's successful execution on HAMR-driven areal density gains.
• V Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Visa to $427 from $410 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm said its 3Q26 was sharply ahead of expectations with US payments volume rising 10% the fastest since FY19 ex-COVID, and debit accelerating 200 bps. Trends look good in FQ4 (September), albeit at a more moderate level, and the guide was more muted.
• VRNS Susquehanna analyst Shyam Patil raised the firm's price target on Varonis to $55 from $36 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm said they posted generally solid results and continues to progress toward an all-SaaS business by year-end. The firm remains bullish on the data protection opportunity and see further upside from SaaS platform upsells, MDDR, and GenAI.

• CZR TD Cowen downgraded Caesars to Hold from Buy with an unchanged price target of $31 citing the company's pending transaction to be acquired by Fertitta Entertainment for $31 per share in cash.

• SWKS UBS raised the firm's price target on Skyworks to $70 from $65 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. SKyworks' results and guidance were largely in line, with a constructive outlook driven by merger progress, potential portfolio repositioning, and the opportunity to create an inexpensive semiconductor platform with diversified end-market exposure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• V UBS raised the firm's price target on Visa to $420 from $410 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Visa raised FY26 guidance for the second consecutive quarter, supported by resilient underlying growth across value-added services, pricing, cross-border volumes, and Visa Direct, reinforcing confidence in continued momentum into FY27, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• W UBS raised the firm's price target on Wayfair to $118 from $115 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Wayfair enters the Q2 print with positive momentum, supported by sustained mid-single-digit sales growth in a recovering home furnishings market and expectations for an EBITDA beat as buy-side estimates remain above consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CLDX Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Celldex to $72 from $48 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While the Street is modeling a high probability of success for barzolvolimab's Phase 3 in CSU, it underappreciates its commercial opportunity and potential early-line utilization due to overstated concerns around monitoring requirements and safety, the firm says. Wells' barzolvolimab estimates and price target move higher.
• ENPH Wells Fargo analyst Praneeth Satish lowered the firm's price target on Enphase Energy to $44 from $45 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q3 core revenue guide of $245M was below its estimate of $260M, but likely in-line with buyside. Enphase is one of the final bidders in a solid-state transformer request for proposal with a hyperscaler. Propel was flat quart-over-quarter but up in July and ramping quickly, Wells adds.
• SNOW Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Snowflake to $500 from $320 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as "the game as changed." AI agents are accelerating spend higher on Snow, and investors underappreciate upside potential as AI becomes the primary driver of growth, the firm argues. Wells sees Snow as a near-term AI beneficiary without capex requirements or model dependence.
• KLAC Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on KLA Corp. to $245 from $305 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Despite recent correction in shares, expectations remained elevated into the print with investors looking for larger beat and raise, the firm notes. Wells remains positive on KLA's positioning to outperform WFE looking into 2027 and remains a buyer of shares.
• NXPI Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on NXP Semiconductors to $280 from $290 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While NXP delivered positive Q2 results, shares were down after hours given elevated expectations looking for more material auto upside, the firm notes. With forward estimates largely unchanged, Wells views continued acceleration of auto recovery as key driver of shares.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• 8:30 AM ET                   Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation M/M for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for July
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $69B in 2-year notes
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $70B in 5-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AGYS AMKR APLD BLX BRO BRX CBK CBDNS CDP CINF CLS ESI FFIV FSUN KFRC KRC NBTN NTB NUE NVTS NWBI PFG RMBS RNGR SANM SSD SUI TFII UDR UHS WELL WHR

• 8:30 AM ET                   Advance goods Trade Balance for June
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:00 AM ET                   Monthly Home Price M/M for May
• 9:00 AM ET                   CaseShiller 20-city index M/M for May
• 10:00 AM ET                 Richmond Fed Manufacturing for July
• 10:00 AM ET                 Consumer Confidence for July
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $44B in 7-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAT ACGL ACHC AKR APAM ASH AXS BE BXP CAKE CAR CHE CLW CNP CR CSGP CTO CZR ENPH EXE EXLS EXR F FCF FE GEF HIW HURN KLAC LOGI LSTR MANH MDLZ MEOH MIR NBR NEO NOV NXPI OI OMC ORN PDM PDS PPG QRVO QUAD RBBN RNST ROG RUSHA SBCF SLDE STAG STX SWKS TER THG TLRY TMRK TTAM UMBF UNM V VLTO VRNS WERN WM WPC ZWS

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy Meeting concludes; no changes to rates expected

• Earnings After the Close: ADPT AEM AGI ALGN ALKT ALRS AM AR ARIS ARM ASTL AUR AWK BBNX BBT BELFA BHC BHE BN BOOM CBZ CHDN CHRW CLB CMG CMPT CMTG CNMD CNXN COUR CP CRK CSL CVI CVLG CVNA CWH EA EFOR EG EIG EPR EQIX ESRT ESS ETD FCPT FICO FLS FMC FORM FTAI FTNT GFL GKOS GRBK HLI HOOD HXL INVH KGC LHX LRCX LUNG LXU MAA MAX MC MDXG META MGM MOD MORN MSFT MTG MTH MX MYRG NEU NFG NGVT NSP NEW OHI ORLY PBI PCOR PEB PFSI PI PLXS PMT PPC PRCH PSA PTC QCOM QTWO REG RGR RM RSI SBUX SFM SIMO SONO ST TDOC TENB TK TNK TREE TTEK TYL UFPI UIS VET VICI VTR WAY WFG WHD WWD

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Consumption for Q2
• 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q2
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index (headline) for Q2 M/M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index for Q2 M/M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Income M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Personal Spending M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index headline M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET PCE Price Index headline Y/Y for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index (core) M/M for June
• 8:30 AM ET                   Core PCE Price Index (core) Y/Y for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AAPL ACCO ADC AEE AJG AMH AMZN ASUR ATR AX AXTI BFAM BJRI BWIN CDNA CERS CNO COHU COIN COLM CPT CSTL CTVA CUBE CUZ DLB DRH DXC DXCM EGO EIX EMN ERIE ES EXPO FHI FLGT FND FORR FSLR GDDY GH GLPI GSIT HR HUN ILMN INGM IR IVR KWR LNT LOPE LPLA LYV MHK MMSI MPWR MSA MSTR MTD MTX MTZ NBIX NXT OCFC OLED OLN PBA PTCT RBLX RDDT RIVN RYAN SAFE SNDR SONY SPSC SPXC SYK TBKK TEM VCYT WU WY

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for July

• 9:45 AM ET                   Chicago PMI for July
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Sentiment, July-final
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, July-final
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• Earnings After the Close: