Early Look

Friday, July 17, 2026

U.S. futures point to a sharply lower open as the AI/semiconductor momentum trade continues to unwind in July, leading to notable declines overnight and the week, especially in tech. Stocks fell on Thursday as a sell-off in technology stocks overshadowed a raft of solid earnings reports. Several notable stories overnight include, Iran said it launched fresh strikes on U.S. facilities in the Middle East on Friday, including the first direct attack in Syria, after a sixth straight night of U.S. strikes on Iranian military facilities. President Trump revealed that China stole the voter registration data of 220M Americans as part of his primetime speech on Thursday. Netflix (NFLX) shares fall -9% overnight after guiding Q3 earnings and revenue below consensus forecasts. The tech-heavy major averages struggled with weakness in semiconductors (SOX hit 2 month lows) and looks to be the case to start the day while defensive Consumer Staples (XLP), Healthcare (XLV) and REITs (XLRE) all outperformed Thursday. After a blistering run that lifted Wall Street's main indexes to record highs, investors retreated from crowded semiconductor trades as worries over the scale of AI-related spending resurfaced. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -2,694 points or 4% to 64,141, the Shanghai Index plunged -3% to 3,764 and the Hang Seng Index declined -446 points to 24,562. In Europe, the German DAX is down -183 points to 24,732, while the FTSE 100 is little changed at 10.569. The Nikkei 225 dropped -4% on Friday, now more than -10% below its June 25 peak, marking a technical correction and its worst weekly loss since April 2025.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -105.67 points, or 0.20%, to 52,552.97
• The Nasdaq Composite stumbled -387.28 points, or 1.47%, to 25,881.95
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -1.69 points, or 0.06% to 2,974.57

• 8:30 AM ET                   Building Permits M/M for June…est. 1.4M
• 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for June…est. (-0.7%)
• 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for June…est. (-0.4%)
• 9:15 AM ET                   Industrial Production M/M for June…est. +0.2%
• 9:15 AM ET                   Capacity Utilization for June….est. 76.2%
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan Confidence, July-prelim…est. 51.0
• 10:00 AM ET                 University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

• The Bank of Japan is likely to consider raising its economic growth forecast at its July meeting while leaving the policy rate unchanged after last month hiking it to the highest level since 1995, according to people familiar with the matter. The Central bank will probably discuss raising its growth forecast from the current projection of 0.5% for the year in its quarterly outlook report – Bloomberg.
• Eurozone annual inflation was confirmed at 2.8% in June 2026, down from 3.2% in May and the lowest since February. Energy inflation slowed to 8.5% from 10.8%, while price growth also moderated for services, non-energy industrial goods, and food, alcohol, and tobacco. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, eased to 2.4% from 2.6%.

• Burberry (BURBY) said retail sales in Europe, Middle East, India and Africa business fell (-3%) in Q1, as conflict in the Middle East dents tourist spending; said comparable retail sales for Q1 grow +5%, in line with company-compiled consensus; sales in the Americas up 12% from a year earlier during the quarter thanks to new customers, and Gen Z shoppers helping boost China sales by 9%.
• Coca-Cola Company (KO) said that Fairlife, LLC, a dairy company which it owns, temporarily suspended production operations in the United States after unauthorized access by a third party to parts of its systems.
• Yum Brands (YUM) Taco Bell lettuce supplier linked to cyclosporiasis outbreak. The CDC issued a public health advisory that stated: "CDC, FDA, and public health officials in several states are investigating a multistate outbreak of Cyclospora infections linked to shredded iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell locations in 5 states. Do not eat shredded iceberg lettuce from Taco Bell locations in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and West Virginia.

• Caci International (CACI) awarded five-year technology contract worth up to $113M by U.S. Navy MSC.
• Sandvik AB (SDVKY) Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of SEK 4.59, revs of SEK 36.75B (+23.7% Y/Y), order intake SEK 37,799M (32,206) and order intake, at fixed exchange rates, increased by 17%, and organically by 17%.
• Volvo (VLVLY) posted Q2 of 126.27 billion Swedish crowns ($13.09 billion) and adjusted EBIT of 14.78 billion crowns beat consensus estimates by 1% and 2% respectively; Q2 order intake for trucks rises 33% to 63,412, against a consensus expectation of 53,400; raises outlook for orders in European truck market to 315,000 units from 310,000 seen earlier.

• Independent Bank (INDB) Q2 adj EPS $1.70 vs. est. $1.78; Q2 net interest margin 3.85% (down -5bps q/q), Net Income $81.838M and net interest income $210.9M; generated a return on average assets and a return on average common equity of 1.34% and 9.24%, respectively in Q2; Q2 Deposit balances of $20.4B rose $294.6M or 1.5% q/q.
• PayPal's (PYPL) board said it believes a $53B takeover bid from Stripe and private equity firm Advent International undervalues the company and could face regulatory and financing hurdles, according to Reuters. The board is evaluating the proposal alongside management's turnaround strategy, and the possibility of rival offers.
• Regions Financial (RF) Q2 adj EPS $0.68 vs. est. $0.63; Q2 revs were $1.95B, in-line with consensus; Q2 net interest margin 3.66% vs. 3.67% in Q1; Net interest income rose 2% from prior quarter, driven by growth in average loans, fixed-rate asset turnover, and prudent deposit cost management and guides Fy26 net interest income +2.5%-4.5%; raises dividend by 13%.

• GSK Plc (GSK) said it decided to halt the development of an experimental drug as a treatment for chronic cough after the medicine missed the key goal in a late-stage clinical study; said the drug, camlipixant, achieved mixed results in two trials--with one hitting the primary objective of significant reductions in cough frequency after 12 weeks of treatment and a second falling short after 24 weeks.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q2 adj EPS $2.80 vs. est. $2.50; Q2 revs rose 19% y/y to $2.89B vs. est. $2.83B; Q2 adj net income $1.0B vs. est. $897.8M; Q2 Da Vinci surgical systems shipped 468 vs. 395 y/y; expects FY worldwide Da Vinci procedure growth of about 13.5% to 15.5%, expects to be closer to midpoint of this range; expects FY gross profit margin to be within a range of 68.0% to 69.0% of revenue
• Regenxbio (RGNX) announces proposed public offering of common stock of $100M.
• STAAR Surgical (STAA) guides Q2 prelim revs $90M vs. est. $90.25M saying growth was driven by China, broader Asia-Pacific, and double-digit gains in the Americas while EMEA sales declined due to Middle East turmoil; company warns of ongoing macroeconomic headwinds; maintains 2026 strategic objectives.

• Meta Platforms (META) has hired Dave Brown, a senior Amazon Web Services executive, according to The Wall Street Journal. Brown will leave Amazon (AMZN) at the end of July after nearly 19 years, adding to Meta's efforts to expand its AI infrastructure and data center capabilities.
• President Trump warned that he was considering revoking the Broadcast licenses of television networks Disney’s ABC and Comcast’s NBC, accusing them of spreading misinformation and acting against the public interest (the move comes after neither network broadcast his speech last night).

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, July 17, 2026

U.S. stocks are under pressure to start the day and on track for weekly declines as the tech driven sell off in semis/AI/data centers do more damage to momentum stocks/trades as investors rotate into more defensive sectors with consumer staples, healthcare, REITs leading the last few days. Financials had been strong until some profit taking yesterday while Energy climbs again behind another rise in oil prices after the US, for the sixth consecutive night, launched a wave of strikes in Iran. But the story this morning is the renewed pressure in semis (SOX) as investors questioned whether elevated AI-related valuations remain justified.  Competition fears rose driven by Chinese startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 Ai model rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic. Investors fear the breakthrough echoes of the DeepSeek shock, questioning the justification for massive Ai capital spending. A disappointing market reaction to TSM's results the day prior and higher capex guidance fueled concerns over the eventual returns on the sector's heavy investment cycle. Weakness was particularly acute across Asia, where Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong all posted sizeable declines given their heavy exposure to chipmakers/AI supply chains. Japan's Nikkei 225 tumbled -4.6% to 64,141.12, marking its worst weekly loss since April 2025, with memory maker Kioxia (KXIAY) plummeting nearly 15%, Tokyo Electron (TOELY) tumbling about 3.3%. @MikeZaccardi noted on X, “Tech $XLK having its worst month of the bull market... -8.7%... worst since Sept 2022.” Stocks trying to pare losses with QQQ -1.2% after falling as much as -2.7%.

In his highly awaited national address, President Trump focused mainly on US election security. Trump repeated claims that the 2020 election was stolen and cast doubt on the security of the upcoming midterms. He used the speech to press Congress to pass a strict voter identification bill, saying it is imperative that Americans feel elections are free of misconduct and interference. He said he was detailing findings from newly declassified intelligence reports, alleging vulnerabilities in voting systems and noncitizens on state voter rolls. In geopolitical news, for the sixth consecutive night, the US launched a wave of strikes on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, and other areas across Iran. Iran responded with multiple waves against Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain targeting US assets. Oil prices rose again this morning and are higher on the week.

• June Industrial output rose a modest +0.1% vs. consensus +0.2% and in-line with May +0.1%; June mining output +0.4% (May +1.1%), Utilities output +0.4% (May -0.7%); June capacity use rate 76.1% vs. consensus 76.2% and vs May 76.1% (previous 76.2%).
• U.S. housing starts jumped +19.0% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427M in June from 1.199M (revised from 1.177M) in May, well above the 1.320M consensus. The rate of housing starts in June increased 3.5% y/y. May building permits issued for privately owned housing slipped -3.0% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.367M vs. 1.400M consensus and 1.410M prior.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim July 54.4 (consensus 51.0) vs final June 49.5 as current conditions index prelim July 54.9 (consensus 48.7) vs final June 47.7 and expectations index prelim July 54.0 (consensus 51.7) vs final June 50.7.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim July 4.2% vs final June 4.6% while 5-year inflation outlook prelim July 3.3% vs final June 3.3%.

• Media & Communication sector: NFLX shares tumbled after reporting quarterly results that were in-line but gave Q3 guidance that fell short of consensus for earnings and revenue (guides Q3 revs $12.86B vs est $13B and EPS $0.82 vs est $0.84) while tightened its 2026 rev view to +12% FXN (+13-14% reported). In other news, President Trump threatened to revoke the broadcast licenses of DIS owned ABC and CMCSA-owned NBC, accusing both networks of spreading misinformation and failing to air his remarks in prime time last night. META is in talks to hire a senior AMZN cloud computing executive as the social media giant expands its data center and cloud infrastructure ambitions, the WSJ reported.
• Restaurant sector: YUM shares fell initially after investigators identified shredded iceberg lettuce supplied by Taylor Farms to Taco Bell as a potential source of a multistate Cyclospora outbreak that has sickened thousands. In earnings previews, Benchmark raised its tgt on BJRI to $68 from $50 and raised Q2 comp sales assumptions based on the traffic strength that have seen broadly across the full-service dining industry during Q22; BJRI was also upgraded to Outperform at William Blair. RBC Capital previews some quarters saying they continue to lean constructive on WING despite top-line pressures and constructive on shares of CMG heading into the print where RBC anticipate a SSS growth beat and raise.

• FANG +2%; amid bounce in oil/energy related names (APA, COP, EOG, XOM) after the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf, with shipping threatened by a potential Red Sea closure on top of the restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• PSNL +3%; added to prior day gains following a report (by Street insider) indicating that the company is exploring a potential sale after receiving takeover interest from MRK and two other bidders. Merck already owns more than 10% of the company and is a key customer https://tinyurl.com/42c5a3wj
• TRV +8%; reported Q2 core profit jumps on lower catastrophe losses and strong investment income while quarterly core income per share rises 44% to $10.04; Q2 catastrophe losses were $518M on a pre-tax basis, compared with $927M y/y and net investment income rose 13.6% y/y to $1.07B.
• UNH +2%; adds to prior day gains after beat and raise quarter and as investors rotate further out of tech and into other sectors such as Healthcare (XLV).

• GSK -2%; said it decided to halt the development of an experimental drug as a treatment for chronic cough after the medicine missed the key goal in a late-stage clinical study; said the drug, camlipixant, its primary endpoint in a 12-week trial but fell short in a 24-week study.
• ISRG -11%; shares fell as Q2 revenue of $2.89B was up 18% Y/y ex-fx, topping ests $2.82B, including as systems up 19%, I&A up 18% and service up 21% on better margins but procedure growth decelerated ~200bps q/q amid headwinds from ACA subsidy cuts and only reiterated 2026 da Vinci procedure growth guidance of 13.5%-15.5%, below consensus's 14.9%
• NFLX -10%; shares tumbled after reporting quarterly results that were in-line but gave Q3 guidance that fell short of consensus for earnings and revenue (guides Q3 revs $12.86B vs est $13B and EPS $0.82 vs est $0.84) while tightened its 2026 rev view to +12% FXN (+13-14% reported).
• RGNX -13%; as prices public offering of 10M shares at $9 and 1.11M pre-funded warrants at $9.
• SPCX -3%; shares fell further below its IPO pricing of $135 after Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before liftoff for its 13th flight test from Texas on Thursday as some of its 33 engines failed to start. CEO Elon Musk says SPCX will likely try to launch again early next week.
• STAA -19; shares tumbled after guides Q2 prelim revs $90M vs. est. $90.25M saying growth was driven by China, broader Asia-Pacific, and double-digit gains in the Americas while EMEA sales declined due to Middle East turmoil; company warns of ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
• YUM -2%; after investigators identified shredded iceberg lettuce supplied by Taylor Farms to Taco Bell as a potential source of a multistate Cyclospora outbreak that has sickened thousands

Closing Recap

Friday, July 17, 2026

U.S. stocks finished lower led by technology/semiconductors again, but most of the damage was done in the overnight session when Nasdaq futures tumbled as much as -2.5% before rebounding and paring losses. Still, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was down -4.15% on the week, the Tech sector (XLK) was down -5.5%, and the semiconductor index (SOX) was down -9.97% for the week (and now down -18% for the month) as investors have pulled back on the reigns in the AI/data center/semi/power space this month. Winners on the week were Energy (XLE +4.7%), REITs (XLRE +2.2%), and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.27%). Semis and Memory stocks have fallen to multi-week lows below their 50-day MAs as capital has been shifting toward strength in Financial (XLF), Retail (XRT), and Healthcare (XLV). While the SPX consolidates within 1% of record highs, softening A/D lines and waning breadth and trend indicators have weighed on sentiment. Attention turns to corporate earnings with a busy week on deck that includes GOOGL, TSLA, INTC, MMM, TXN, AXP, IBM, NOW and VZ. Although economic data releases might take a back seat, the ECB meeting anchors the weekly central bank agenda alongside several emerging market decisions with no chance expected. For the week, S&P 500 ends down -1.55%, Nasdaq down -2.9%, Dow down -0.93%.

Renewed pressure in semis (SOX) came this week as investors questioned whether elevated AI-related valuations remain justified.  Competition fears rose overnight, driven by Chinese startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 Ai model rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic. Investors fear the breakthrough echoes of the DeepSeek shock, questioning the justification for massive Ai capital spending. A disappointing market reaction to TSM's results the day prior and higher capex guidance fueled concerns over the eventual returns on the sector's heavy investment cycle. Weakness was particularly acute across Asia, where Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong all posted sizeable declines given their heavy exposure to chipmakers/AI supply chains.

In his highly awaited national address, President Trump focused mainly on US election security. Trump repeated claims that the 2020 election was stolen and cast doubt on the security of the upcoming midterms. He used the speech to press Congress to pass a strict voter identification bill, saying it is imperative that Americans feel elections are free of misconduct and interference. He said he was detailing findings from newly declassified intelligence reports, alleging vulnerabilities in voting systems and noncitizens on state voter rolls. In geopolitical news, for the sixth consecutive night, the US launched a wave of strikes on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, and other areas across Iran. Iran responded with multiple waves against Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain targeting US assets. Oil prices rose again this morning and are higher on the week.

• June Industrial output rose a modest +0.1% vs. consensus +0.2% and in-line with May +0.1%; June mining output +0.4% (May +1.1%), Utilities output +0.4% (May -0.7%); June capacity use rate 76.1% vs. consensus 76.2% and vs May 76.1% (previous 76.2%).
• U.S. housing starts jumped +19.0% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427M in June from 1.199M (revised from 1.177M) in May, well above the 1.320M consensus. The rate of housing starts in June increased 3.5% y/y. May building permits issued for privately owned housing slipped -3.0% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.367M vs. 1.400M consensus and 1.410M prior.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim July 54.4 (consensus 51.0) vs final June 49.5 as current conditions index prelim July 54.9 (consensus 48.7) vs final June 47.7 and expectations index prelim July 54.0 (consensus 51.7) vs final June 50.7.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim July 4.2% vs final June 4.6% while 5-year inflation outlook prelim July 3.3% vs final June 3.3%.

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $82.49/bbl, up $3.54, or 4.48% in what was a big week for oil  prices, while Brent crude oil prices jumped $3.87 or 4.59% to settle at $88.10 per barrel. Both were at their highest since mid-June. For the week, both jumped over 16% as Iran/US headlines continued to dominate with attacks on regions of Iran pushing up oil prices and causing some angst for stocks.

• The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell -2.6 basis points to 4.523%. The yield was down nearly 3 bps on the week, its first weekly drop after climbing for two straight weeks. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose on the day, but fell -3.6 basis points to 4.172%.

• Tobacco sector (MO, PM): Goldman Sachs said they are incrementally more constructive on the US tobacco and nicotine category in the near term, as moderating cigarette volume declines and strong nicotine pouch growth support a better 2Q setup, despite persistent inflationary pressure and higher gas prices for consumers. Favor Buy-rated PM and MO as their strong smoke-free positioning and retail momentum support our expectation for a Q2 beat-and-raise.
• Consumer staples/food/beverage: KO shares led decliners in beverages/food as consumer staples (XLP) fell around -1% after leading mkts yesterday up around 2.7%. Note today shares of CLX, CPB, GIS, PEP, MKC were all down notably in reversal of prior day trade. Last night KO said that Fairlife, LLC, a dairy company which it owns, temporarily suspended production operations in the United States after unauthorized access by a third party to Parts of its systems.
• Retail sector: WMT is shuffling the leadership atop its massive U.S. business as the retailer's new chief executive continues to build his team. Kieran Shanahan, chief operating officer for Walmart U.S., will leave the role this week, the company said in an internal memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal. Shanahan, 45 years old, will be succeeded by Kyle Kinnard, currently COO for Walmart International

• MLPs/Pipelines: OKE was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jefferies as its confidence in a meaningful Bakken growth acceleration has faded despite the recent oil rally. More than 5 months into the Iran-related volatility, producers continue to emphasize capital discipline, flat oil production, and returns overgrowth. Absent confidence in sustained higher oil prices, see limited upside to growth.

• FinTech: FIS said it's testing Anthropic's Mythos 5 AI model, using it to scan and evaluate its own systems through Project Glasswing. The advanced AI model is working as an additional layer within FIS's security system, it said. The initiative is separate from FIS's commercial AI partnership with Anthropic.
• In Insurance: TRV reported Q2 core profit jumps on lower catastrophe losses and strong investment income while quarterly core income per share rises 44% to $10.04; Q2 catastrophe losses were $518M on a pre-tax basis, compared with $927M y/y and net investment income rose 13.6% y/y to $1.07B; Q2 net written premiums $11.53B vs. $11.54B last year
• Mortgage REIT sector: JP Morgan previewed the quarter as they upgraded ABR to Neutral while downgraded AGNC to Neutral and KREF to underweight. NLY and RWT remain JPMC's Preferred names: NLY offers an attractive, well-supported yield with the optionality to reallocate capital across MSR and residential credit, while RWT's structural share gains in jumbo and its accelerating legacy winddown provide a Self-help path to EAD growth that is less dependent on the rate backdrop.

• Medical Devices: ISRG shares fell as Q2 revenue of $2.89B was up 18% Y/y ex-fx, topping ests $2.82B, including as systems up 19%, I&A up 18% and service up 21% on better margins but procedure growth decelerated ~200bps q/q amid headwinds from ACA subsidy cuts and only reiterated 2026 da Vinci procedure growth guidance of 13.5%-15.5%, below consensus's 14.9%
• Medical Equipment: STAA shares tumbled after guides Q2 prelim revs $90M vs. est. $90.25M saying growth was driven by China, broader Asia-Pacific, and double-digit gains in the Americas while EMEA sales declined due to Middle East turmoil; company warns of ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
• Medical Research: PSNL added to prior day gains following a report (by Street insider) indicating that the company is exploring a potential sale after receiving takeover interest from MRK and two other bidders. Merck already owns more than 10% of the company and is a key customer https://tinyurl.com/42c5a3wj

• Aerospace sector: ASTS was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B Riley with an unchanged price target of $85 noting shares have declined 44% in the six months since the firm downgraded the stock, who believes this pullback tilts the risk/reward calculus favorably for the company. SPCX shares fell further below its IPO pricing of $135 after Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before liftoff for its 13th flight test from Texas on Thursday as some of its 33 engines failed to start. CEO Elon Musk says SPCX will likely try to launch again early next week. SpaceX says they are now targeting Monday, July 20th at 6:45 PM ET for their 13th Starship test flight. Also, the WSJ reported SPCX is in talks with the Defense Department about providing the agency with access to data-center capacity worth billions of dollars for running artificial-intelligence models.

• Industrial Metals sector: aluminum producer AA reported Q2 adj EPS $2.12 vs est $2.19, adj EBITDA $901Mm vs est $943Mm on revs $3.97B vs est $3.939B; lowers 2026 alumina production projection to 9.5-9.6M metric tons, lowers 2026 alumina shipments projection to 11.5-11.6M metric tons. Precious metal miners still under pressure despite bounce in gold and silver prices.

• Neoclouds/Data centers: NBIS closed its first senior secured debt facility for about $775M to expand its AI cloud platform. The facility is backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer, matures in 2030, and is priced at SOFR + 2.50%. For the second time, New Mexico regulators have rejected applications for a natural gas pipeline across state lands that would supply power systems at a planned ORCL data center project, Bloomberg News reported. Data centers fell midday (CIFR, CLSK, HUT, WULF) after the NY Times reported META is in early discussions to lease computing power from its AI data centers to Anthropic in an agreement that could be worth as much as $10B over two years.
• Shares of U.S. semiconductor-related companies bounced off the lows, but overall, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (SOX) was down more than 20% from its all-time closing high before paring losses 9and actually tuning positive this afternoon). Chipmakers globally are under pressure as investors assess the durability of the artificial intelligence-driven rally. Chinese AI startup Moonshot unveils world's largest open AI model, closing in on U.S. rivals. Big moves in MU, SNDK, SKHY, WDC, memory names as well as AI plays NVDA, INTC, ARM, AMD, AVGO.

• EDA sector: shares of CDNS, SNPS tumbled following Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 news that it designed a chip to serve a nano model built on its own architecture. In a single 48-hour autonomous run, K3 built, optimized, and verified the chip using open-source EDA tools on the Nangate 45nm library. BNP Paribas defended shares of both saying Ai driving EDA use, not displacing it BNP believes that the market is digesting the wrong message: Ai is not displacing incumbent chip Design software players but moving up the stack and automating manual chip Design workflows.
• Media & Communication sector: NFLX shares stumbled after reporting quarterly results that were in-line but gave Q3 guidance that fell short of consensus for earnings and revenue (guides Q3 revs $12.86B vs est $13B and EPS $0.82 vs est $0.84) while tightened its 2026 rev view to +12% FXN (+13-14% reported). In other news, President Trump threatened to revoke the broadcast licenses of DIS owned ABC and CMCSA-owned NBC, accusing both networks of spreading misinformation and failing to air his remarks in prime time last night. META is in talks to hire a senior AMZN cloud computing executive as the social media giant expands its data center and cloud infrastructure ambitions, the WSJ reported.

Street Recommendations

Friday, July 17, 2026

• USB Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg raised the firm's price target on U.S. Bancorp to $75 from $67 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q2 report. The bank's earnings beat as fees, net interest income and tax rate were better than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• NI BMO Capital analyst James Thalacker lowered the firm's price target on NiSource to $49 from $51 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of its Q2 results. The firm expects a weaker y/y headline, though this is largely due to the shaping, with a large amount of growth coming in the back half of the year from visible sources including rates and O&M reductions, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BMO adds that it expects investors to continue focusing on developments in Indiana and the progression of incremental GenCo deals.
• GS BMO Capital analyst Brennan Hawken lowered the firm's price target on Goldman Sachs to $1,150 from $1,190 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares as part of a broader research note updating the firm's models on Financial Services names following Q2 earnings. The company's performance has cleared a high bar, though the debate around peak investment banking multiples remains intense, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• TSCO BofA analyst Christopher Nardone lowered the firm's price target on Tractor Supply to $33 from $44 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Given that 80% of the company's business remains challenged and higher gas prices are pressuring the company's core consumer, the firm expects Tractor Supply will cut guidance when the company reports Q2 results on July 23, the analyst tells investors in a preview. The firm is lowering its own FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by 9% and 12%, respectively, to $1.95 and $2.02 to reflect lower comp and gross margin forecasts.

• JAZZ Canaccord analyst Gary Nachman last night initiated coverage of Jazz Pharmaceuticals with a Buy rating and $290 price target. The company's product mix has been improving, which should continue with a shift more toward the higher-value oncology franchise and away from the higher-risk oxybate franchise, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Jazz is managing multiple competitive risks in the sleep market.
• ELF Canaccord analyst Susan Anderson raised the firm's price target on Elf Beauty to $97 from $90 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm took a look at trends including in-store checks, online checks, and social media responses. Overall, it appears the company's expansion into haircare is off to a strong start and has performed well both online and at retail, according to our checks.

• OXY Citi analyst Scott Gruber lowered the firm's price target on Occidental to $60 from $62 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm believes the new CEO will be more aggressive in cutting costs.
• IBM Citi analyst Fatima Boolani lowered the firm's price target on IBM to $255 from $375 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cut estimates following IBM's negative preannouncement. Citi assumes no immediate mainframe deal recapture and flattish organic software business trends.

• ABR JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane upgraded Arbor Realty to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $5.50, down from $7. The firm adjusted ratings in the mortgage real estate investment group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. The market is pivoting from anticipating interest rate cuts to "bracing for higher-for-longer, and potentially higher-from here," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says that residential mortgage REITs, higher rates are a "double-edged sword," as elevated mortgage rates reduce prepayment risk, but a flatter curve can pressure carry. For commercial REITs, the removal of rate cut expectations is a positive for near-term net interest income given their asset-sensitive, floating-rate books, but the flip side is that borrowers get no relief on debt service, adds the firm.
• KREF JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane downgraded KKR Real Estate Finance to Underweight from Neutral with a $6 price target. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the mortgage real estate investment group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. The market is pivoting from anticipating interest rate cuts to "bracing for higher-for-longer, and potentially higher-from here," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says that residential mortgage REITs, higher rates are a "double-edged sword," as elevated mortgage rates reduce prepayment risk, but a flatter curve can pressure carry. For commercial REITs, the removal of rate cut expectations is a positive for near-term net interest income given their asset-sensitive, floating-rate books, but the flip side is that borrowers get no relief on debt service, adds the firm.
• NLY JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane raised the firm's price target on Annaly Capital to $26 from $24 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the mortgage real estate investment group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. The market is pivoting from anticipating interest rate cuts to "bracing for higher-for-longer, and potentially higher-from here," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says that residential mortgage REITs, higher rates are a "double-edged sword," as elevated mortgage rates reduce prepayment risk, but a flatter curve can pressure carry. For commercial REITs, the removal of rate cut expectations is a positive for near-term net interest income given their asset-sensitive, floating-rate books, but the flip side is that borrowers get no relief on debt service, adds the firm.
• F JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta raised the firm's price target on Ford to $16 from $15 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees the company posted a modest beat in Q2.
• AA JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson lowered the firm's price target on Alcoa to $52 from $55 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says cost headwinds and supply fears are overshadowing the company's solid execution in Q2.

• BYD Mizuho analyst Ben Chaiken raised the firm's price target on Boyd Gaming to $101 from $96 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm believes expectations are low heading into the company's Q2 results on July 23. The stock's valuation "should remain supportive here," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• STT Morgan Stanley analyst Manan Gosalia raised the firm's price target on State Street to $195 from $183 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. A "muted stock reaction" to a beat-and-raise quarter with clear momentum reflects elevated expectations, the analyst tells investors.
• DUOL Morgan Stanley analyst Nathan Feather raised the firm's price target on Duolingo to $125 from $95 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Data implies Duolingo is finding ways to accelerate DAU growth while simultaneously opening new forms of monetization a few quarters into its strategy shift, the analyst tells investors. The firm is "tactically positive" on Q2 earnings, the analyst added.

• HOMB Piper Sandler analyst Stephen Scouten raised the firm's price target on Home BancShares to $36 from $33 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after strong Q2 results. The firm sees the recent strength in shares as justified as it thinks the shares have lagged the broader group unjustifiably based on the continued strength in profitability, growing excess capital, and ample downside protection through the 1.74% LLR.
• ISRG Piper Sandler analyst Adam Maeder lowered the firm's price target on Intuitive Surgical to $470 from $580 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported Q2 results that easily beat consensus on both the top and bottom-line. Piper was pleased to see both volume growth and placements exceed consensus estimates.

• OVV Stephens analyst Mike Scialla lowered the firm's price target on Ovintiv to $68 from $71 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm's EBITDA and cash flow per share estimates are 1% above and 1% below consensus on in-line production estimates, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• CFG Stephens analyst Matt Breese raised the firm's price target on Citizens Financial to $70 from $68 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following what the firm calls a "solid quarter." Post earnings, the firm increased its 2026 and 2027 operating EPS estimates by 2% and 3% to $5.26 and $6.50, respectively.

• UNH UBS analyst AJ Rice raised the firm's price target on UnitedHealth to $490 from $460 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company is "making good progress with more to go," the analyst tells investors following the Q2 report.
• PR UBS analyst Josh Silverstein lowered the firm's price target on Permian Resources to $24 from $25 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

• AMWL Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter raised the firm's price target on Amwell to $16 from $9 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. DHA's Notice of Intent appears to sunset renewal risk, moves Amwell into a direct DHA relationship, and validates the platform as essential, potentially opening door for more deals and/or scope expansion, the firm says.
• ISRG Wells Fargo analyst Larry Biegelsen lowered the firm's price target on Intuitive Surgical to $487 from $654 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q2 revenues and EPS beat consensus despite soft U.S. procedure growth. The company maintained 2026 DV procedure growth guide of 13.5%-15.5% and raised gross margin to 68%-69% from 67.5%-68.5%.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: AGNC AMC BOKF CALX CCK HBCP MCRI RBB SFBS STLD WASH WRB WTFC ZION

• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AIR ALK BWB CB COF EQT EWBC FFBC HAFC HWC IBKR KREF MCB NLY NP NPB ORRF OZK PEGA RRC TFIN TRST WAL WBS WSBC

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $13B in 20-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AVB BANR BDN CASH CATY CCI CCS CSX CYH EFSC EGBN EGP ELS EPRT EQR FAF FR FRME FSBC FULT GGG GL GOOGL GSHD GTY HBNC IBM KALU KMI KNX LBRT LOV LUV MEDP MMLP MOH NOW NTST OBK OII PKG PNFP QCRH QS RELL RGP RJF RLI RNR ROL RS SEIC SLG SON STC TCBI TSLA TXN URI WCN WEX

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 8:30 AM ET                   National Activity index for June
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for July

• Earnings After the Close: ABCB AMTB APPF ASB ATRC BFST BY BYD COLB CUBI DECK DLR EBC ENVA EW FIBK FISI FRST GBCI HIG INTC JAKK KN KNSL MRTN MXL NEM ORC OVV PECO PINE REXR RNG SAM SAP SCHL SIGI SKYW SLM SSB SSNC USCB UVE VRSN WKC WSFS

• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, June-flash
• 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, June-flash
• 10:00 AM ET                 New Home Sales M/M for June
• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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