Early Look

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-811.00

1.66%

48,134

S&P 500

-113.75

1.65%

6,774

Nasdaq

-533.50

2.13%

24,492

 

 

The “buy the dip” on war headlines may have boosted U.S. stocks on Monday to push major averages into positive territory, but a sharp decline overnight in tech stocks following weakness in Asian markets has U.S. futures giving back all of yesterday’s rally and dropping below the prior day Spuz futures lows. South Korea’s main KOSPI stock index fell over -12%, triggering a circuit breaker in its worst single day drop since the 2024 yen carry crisis, with sharp declines in chip companies like Samsung and SK Hynix (KOSPI closed at 5,791.91, down 7.24%). Financials remain under pressure given the recent spike in Treasury yields (also likely to weigh on homebuilders), especially in private credit markets after Blackstone (BX) said in a filing that investors in the $82B Blackstone Private Credit Fund (BCRED), who usually have a chance to ask to withdraw 5% of their holdings every quarter, requested a total of 7.9% in the first quarter. Oil prices are also surging with WTI crude +5.30 or 7.44% at $76.53 per Barrel on Middle East concerns and Brent crude tops $84 per barrel for the first time since July 2024 raising inflation fears. Oil added to Monday’s gains after reports Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and warned that any vessel attempting to pass would be attacked. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -1,778 points or over 3% to settle at 56,279, the Shanghai Index fell -59 points to 4,122, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -291 points to 25,768. In Europe, markets looking just as ugly as the German DAX is tumbling -934 points or 3.79% to 23,703, while the FTSE 100 falls -282 points or 2.6% to 10,496. No place to hide as precious metals are also seeing sharp pullbacks with gold down about -1% and silver prices extending Monday’s decline tumbling another -7.6% at $81.56 an ounce (off highs above $95 just one night ago) following a sharp spike in the US Dollar (DXY) +0.9% at 99.30 and Treasury yields spiking as the 10-yr rises about 7bps to 4.11% (just 2 days after falling below 4%) and the 2-yr yield rising 8.5bps to 3.57% as inflation fears pared interest rate cut bets. The spike in oil is again putting pressure on transport stocks with airlines, online travel, and cruise stocks looking lower. Meanwhile, energy stocks and defense companies are  leading higher on the Iran headlines.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index edged higher 2.74 points, or 0.04%, to 6,881.62
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -73.14 points, or 0.15%, to 48,904.78
  • The Nasdaq Composite gained 80.65 points, or 0.36%, to 22,748.86
  • The Russell 2000 Index advanced 23.58 points, or 0.90% to 2,655.94

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: ADV AMLX AZO BBY CVEO EVGO FSTR KTB MRX MYE ONON RGNX SE SRAD SRRK TGT THO UPLD VIK VSNT
  • Earnings After the Close: ACEL ARCT BGS BOX BRCB CRCT CRWD CYRX EOLS FTEK GTLB HRZN MEC NPCE ORN RIGL ROST RYAM SGC SSTI STAA SWIM WBTN

Other Key Events:

  • Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
  • Keybanc Emerging Technology Summit in San Francisco, 3/3
  • Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
  • Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
  • TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA
  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI, for February
  • China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for February

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

5.29

76.52

Brent

5.77

83.51

Gold

-48.00

5,263.60

EUR/USD

-0.0096

1.1589

JPY/USD

0.48

157.82

10-Year Note

+0.068

4.11%

 

World News

  • Brent and WTI crude oil extended gains as the US and Israel stepped up their war against Iran, while Tehran vowed a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a fire at a key storage hub in the United Arab Emirates underscored the risk to energy supplies.
  • Annual inflation in the Euro Area rose to 1.9% in February 2026, up from January’s 16-month low of 1.7% and above market expectations of 1.7%, according to a preliminary estimate. Price pressures strengthened notably in services, where inflation accelerated to 3.4% from 3.2%, while non-energy industrial goods inflation picked up to 0.7% from 0.4%. Core inflation rose to 2.4%, rebounding from January’s more than four-year low of 2.2%.
  • The U.S. embassy in Riyadh was struck by two drones amid a wave of Iranian retaliatory attacks on Saudi Arabia against U.S. and Israeli interests, raising the risk that Saudi Arabia could be drawn deeper into the rapidly escalating Middle East conflict.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Target (TGT) Q4 adj EPS $2.44 tops consensus $2.16 as revs of $30.45B fell -1.5% y/y, but mostly in-line with consensus $30.47B (decline marked Target's 13th consecutive quarter of weak or falling sales); Q4 operating income $1.38B vs. est. $1.362B; reports Q4 comparable sales down (-2.5%) vs. est. (-2.4%); said expects 2026 net sales growth of 2%, compared with expectations of a rise of 1.76%; guides year EPS between $7.50 and $8.50, compared with analyst views for $7.63.
  • Amer Sports (AS) 20.6M share Spot Secondary priced at $36.40.
  • Life360 (LIF) Q4 EPS $1.51 on revs up 26% y/y to $146M vs. est. $139.5M; Q4 adj Ebitda rose 53% y/y to $32.4M vs. est. $26.9M; Q4 subscription revenue rose 30% y/y, driven by growth in Paying Circles; sees FY26 revenue $640M-$680M, vs. consensus $660.44M.
  • On Holdings (ONON) Q4 adjusted EBITDA rises 31.8%, sales up 22.6% to 743.8M Swiss francs ($949.69M), above estimates of 724.3M francs; sees at least 23% sales growth in 2026 on a constant-currency basis, below 30% rise in 2025 and said sees annual profit margin increasing to at least 63%, from 62.8% in 2025, though the outlook does not yet factor in a lower U.S. tariff rate following the Supreme Court strike down of IEEPA-based duties.

Energy,

  • Crescent Energy (CRGY) announces offering of $400M private placement of convertible Senior notes due 2031.
  • H2O America (HTO) 11.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $53.00
  • NRG Energy Inc (NRG) launches public offering of 12.3M share offering.
  • Plug power (PLUG) Q4 adj EPS ($0.06) vs est ($0.10) on revs $225.2Mm vs est $217.77Mm; says positioned to achieve EBITDAS Q426 goal.
  • Tidewater Inc. (TDW) Q4 revs fell -2.6% y/y to $336.8M, Q4 average day rate of $22,044 per day, a decline of $192 per day, or -0.9%, y/y; Q4 net income of $219.4M and adjusted EBITDA of $143.1M noting both were favorably impacted by the $2.1 million foreign exchange gain due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar.
  • TotalEnergies (TTE) has signed an agreement with Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI) for the sale of a 50% stake in a portfolio of 11 battery storage projects with a total capacity of 789 MW – 1628 MWh.
  • Viper Energy Inc (VNOM) 17.39M share Spot Secondary priced at $45.90.

Financials

  • Ares Management (ARES) announced today that an Ares Private Equity fund has closed a single-asset continuation vehicle with approximately $850M in total commitments for Convergint Technologies, L.P., a global leader in service-based systems integration. The transaction was led and fully underwritten by Leonard Green & Partners' ("LGP") Sage Fund, which seeks to invest in industry-leading assets of other private equity
  • Banc of California Inc (BANC) files for mixed shelf.
  • Blackstone’s (BX) flagship private credit fund faced $1.7 billion in net outflows in Q1 as investor redemptions surged to 7.9% of its $82 billion BCRED fund—exceeding the 5% threshold that lets the firm limit payouts.
  • Core Scientific (CORZ) Q4 adj EBITDA ($42.7)Mm vs est $36.24Mm on revs $79.8Mm vs est $122.08Mm.
  • Dave Inc. (DAVE) Q4 adj EPS $3.69 vs. consensus $3.75 and revs $163.7M vs. est. $162.28M; Q4 New Members came in at 867K at a customer acquisition cost of $20;  MTMs increased 19% y/y to 2.93M; sees FY26 adj EPS $14.00-$15.00, vs. ests $13.89 and revs $690M-$710M vs. est. $633.33M; sees FY26 adj EBITDA $290M-$305M.
  • LendingTree (TREE) Q4 adj EPS ($0.39) vs est $0.87 on revs $319.7Mm vs est $286.5Mm; guides Q1 revs $317-325Mm vs est $279.17Mm and adj EBITDA $39-41Mm; sees FY revs $1.275-1.33B vs est $1.164B and adj EBITDA $150-160Mm.
  • RIOT Platforms (RIOT) FY revs $647.4M vs. est. $656.1M, but up from $376.7M prior year as increase was primarily driven by a $255.3M increase in Bitcoin Mining revenue; Produced 5,686 bitcoin, as compared to 4,828 during the same twelve-month period in 2024; Maintained strong liquidity position with 18,005 bitcoin.

Healthcare

  • BrightSpring Health (BTSG) 20M share Spot Secondary priced at $41.15
  • Harrow Inc. (HROW) Q4 EPS $0.17 vs est $0.37, adj EBITDA $24.2Mm vs est $35.52Mm on revs $89.1Mm vs est $90Mm, gr mgn 79%; guides FY adj EBITDA $80-100Mm vs est $136.53Mm.
  • Rocket Pharmaceuticals Inc (RCKT) files for mixed shelf of up to $400M.
  • Surgery Partners (SGRY) Q4 adj EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.30 and Ebitda $156.9M vs. est. $169.2M; Q4 revs $885M vs. est. $866.5M; authorizes $200M share repurchase; guides FY revs $3.35B-$3.45B below est. $3.56B.

Industrials and Materials

  • Alamo Group (ALG) Q4 adj EPS $1.70 vs est $2.12, adj EBITDA $44.8Mm vs est $56.35Mm on revs $373.7Mm vs est $399.61Mm.
  • Archer Aviation (ACHR) Q4 2025 Net Loss increased by $59.0M from Q3’25 to a loss of $188.9M primarily driven by $59.9M increase in operating expenses; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was a loss of -$137.9M, which is within the guidance range of $110M-$140M; sees Q1 adjusted EBITDA ($180M)-($160M).
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q4 revs $54.31M vs. est. $41.55M; Q4 adj operating expenses were $95.7M, up $28M as compared to $67.7M in Q3; said expect to scale our space-based direct-to-device network from initial commercial activation toward the start of broader commercial service.
  • Limbach Holdings (LMB) Q4 adj EPS $1.40 vs est $1.06, adj EBITDA $27.2Mm vs est $26.73Mm on revs $186.872Mm vs est $197.56Mm; guides FY revs $730-760Mm vs est $746.06Mm.
  • Precious metals miners, especially for silver (AG, CDE, HL, PAAS) seeing sharp declines for a second day as silver trades to $81 n ounce, down from Sunday night peaks around $95 an ounce.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Asana Inc. (ASAN) Q4 adj EPS $0.08 vs est $0.07 on revs $205.6Mm vs est $205.13Mm; guides Q1 revs $202.5-204.5Mm vs est $204Mm and adj EPS $0.07-0.08 vs est $0.07; sees FY revs $850-858Mm vs est $856.96Mm and adj EPS $0.36-0.37 vs est $0.36; CFO resigns.
  • BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Q4 revs fell -38% y/y to $27.3M vs. est. $33.3M as miss due to lower volume on Army programs; projects 2026 revenue between $135M-$165M; says gross margin declined to 20.3% in Q4 from 37.4% y/y due to absence of significant one-time high-margin contracts from Q4 2024.
  • Credo Technology (CRDO) Q3 EPS $1.07 vs. est. $0.96 on revs +201.5% y/y to $407.0M vs. est. $402.6M; Q3 net income improved significantly to $157.1M; Q4 gross margins seen 63.9%-65.9%, down from the 68.6% in Q3; sees Q4 non-GAAP op expenses $76M-$80M.
  • iHeart media (IHRT) Q4 adj EBITDA $220Mm vs est $226.9Mm on revs $1.127B vs est $1.099B; sees Q1 revs +high-single vs est flat and adj EBITDA $100Mm vs est $118.1Mm; sees FY adj EBITDA approx $800Mm vs est $862.07Mm.
  • Ingram Micro Holding (INGM) authorized share repurchase plan of up to $100M; Q4 adj EPS $0.96 vs. est. $0.91; Q4 revenue rose 11.5% y/y to $14.9B vs. est. $14.18B; Q1 revenue $12.45B-$12.8B, vs. consensus $12.58B; Net sales increased across all geographic segments, with strong growth in Asia-Pacific.
  • MongoDB (MDB) shares tumble on guidance; Q4 adj EPS $1.65 vs est $1.45 on revs $695.1Mm vs est $667.15Mm; guides Q1 revs $659-664Mm vs est $661.94Mm and adj EPS $1.15-1.19 vs est $1.21; sees FY revs $2.86-2.9B vs est $2.888B and adj EPS $5.75-5.93 vs est $5.63; announced Cedric Pech, president of field operations, and Paul Capombassis, chief revenue officer, are leaving MongoDB.
  • Ouster Inc. (OUST) Q4 adj EBITDA $11Mm vs est ($9.5)Mm on revs $40.971Mm vs est $41.1Mm, adj gr mgn 62%; sees Q1 revs $45-48Mm vs est $42.9Mm.
  • Quantum Computing (QUBT) Q4 revs $198K vs. est. $332.5K; said Revenue increase (+219% y/y) driven by hardware sales and services from Fab 1 facility; said plans to expand manufacturing capabilities with new Fab 2 facility; company focuses on advancing strategic partnerships and scaling technology in 2026.
  • Ticketmaster and its Parent company Live Nation (LYV) are set to face trial on Tuesday over U.S. claims that the Entertainment conglomerate dominated Live event markets in ways that hurt artists, venues and fans.

Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, March 03, 2026

Index

Up/Down

%

Last

DJ Industrials

-1,217

2.49%

47,687

S&P 500

-163.96

2.38%

6,717

Nasdaq

-581.78

2.56%

22,167

Russell 2000

-97.54

3.67%

2,558

 

 

U.S. stocks are under significant pressure just a day after Wall Street snapped up the “war trade” decline following attacks by the U.S. and Israel against Iran this weekend. Market concerns renewed overnight with a confluence of factors weighing on investors minds. Tech stocks had recently seen stock market concerns over the impact of AI on their businesses (software particularly) as well as private credit markets amid their exposure to software names/lending. Those trades continue to have negative sentiment on investors, but now add a massive repricing of inflation in energy markets with oil/natural gas exploding higher the last two days as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped. US natural gas futures leap 6% as Middle East conflict disrupts global supplies. Oil prices surge nearly 10% to $77.98 a barrel at its beat, the highest since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June. The rising inflation fears has also cast concerns of less interest rate cuts this year from the Fed. Financials remain a place of concern for investors, particularly in private credit as Blackstone’s (BX) main $82B private credit fund (BCRED) was hit with a flood of withdrawal requests in the first quarter (requests for total of 7.9% vs, usual max of 5% each quarter), and the firm is taking steps to meet them, including Blackstone and its employees investing some $400M into the fund, known as BCRED (handled different then OWL did a few weeks ago when they initially halted the withdrawals before back tracking). The memory sector, which has been one of the top sectors for more than a year (SNDK, MU, WDC) saw massive selling pressure as following a massive decline in South Korea as the Kospi Index tumbled 7.2% today, its worst day in a year and a half (after falling as much as 12%) where shares of memory chip giants Sk Hynix and Samsung Electronics tumbled almost 12% and 10%, respectively. No sector safe today as all eleven S&P sectors are down at least 1% on the day with Materials, Industrials, Technology, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary down the most all 2% or more as commodities reflect fears of severe supply chain disruptions for the energy complex, and a much stronger dollar. Asia and Europe were also down big overnight. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) rises as much as +30% hitting high of 28.01 so far as stocks continue to slide. No bounce seen thus far with emerging markets down broadly as well.

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

WTI Crude

6.20

77.43

Brent

5.98

83.74

Gold

-260.40

5,1050.50

EUR/USD

-0.0137

1.1550

JPY/USD

0.47

157.81

10-Year Note

0.031

4.079%

 

Sector Movers Today

  • Private Equity/Private credit/Alt Managers: BX shares fell after saying in a filing that investors in the $82B Blackstone Private Credit Fund(BCRED), who usually have a chance to ask to withdraw 5% of their holdings every quarter, requested a total of 7.9% in the first quarter (news weighed on ARES, KKR, OWL, CG). Anxiety has climbed in private credit market due to questions about valuations and transparency, while broader credit quality concerns were fanned by two bankruptcies last year. ARES announced that an Ares Private Equity fund has closed a single-asset continuation vehicle with approximately $850M in total commitments for Convergint Technologies, L.P., a global leader in service-based systems integration
  • Memory sector, which has been one of the top sectors for more than a year (SNDK, MU, WDC) saw massive selling pressure as following a massive decline in South Korea as the Kospi Index tumbled 7.2% today, its worst day in a year and a half (after falling as much as 12%) where shares of memory chip giants Sk Hynix and Samsung Electronics tumbled almost 12% and 10%, respectively.
  • HPC Data Centers: Bitcoin miners turned HPC data centers CORZ, RIOT reported earnings. Opco notes for CORZ, Financial results remain secondary at the moment given it is still in construction development for its HPC datacenters as the company has 590MW under contract, 1.5GW of leasable pipeline capacity, and 700MW in load studies bringing total potential longer-term capacity to ~2.8GW. CORZ announced a major new site, and by next earnings expects to announce a major new customer and new financing agreement. RIOT posted a top & bottom line miss driven by weakness in mining, while expenses included SG&A grew faster than expectations.

 

Stock GAINERS

  • BBY +5%; Q4 adj EPS $2.61 topped the $2.47 estimate while revs $13.81B, mostly in-line with $13.88B estimate; increased quarterly dividend by 1% to $0.96 per share; guided FY comp sales to be down 1% to up 1%, compared with analysts' estimates of a 1.63% rise and EPS $6.30-$6.60 vs. est $6.65.
  • OUST +10%; shares rallied after delivered substantial upside to 4Q25 results as it recognized a 1x license payment while guiding 1Q26 ahead of expectations as the Stereolabs acquisition starts to contribute to financials.
  • PINS +4%; after Hedge fund Elliott Investment Management is investing $1 billion in PINS through convertible bonds/initial conversion price of $22.72 represents a 30% premium to PINS last close.
  • PLUG +16%; reported markedly improved financials for 2025 vs 2024, has plans to further reduce capital Intensity, and is targeting further improvements in profitability for 2026, targeting positive EBITDA in Q426 (Q4 adj EPS ($0.06) vs est ($0.10) on revs $225.2Mm vs est $217.77Mm).
  • SEM +8%; said that it would be taken private by a consortium in a deal that values the healthcare operator at $3.9B. A consortium led by some of its executives, including Executive Chairman Robert Ortenzio, and private equity firm Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, will pay $16.50 in cash.
  • TGT +2%; on mixed results, but positive commentary; Q4 adj EPS $2.44 tops consensus $2.16 as revs of $30.45B fell -1.5% y/y, but mostly in-line with consensus $30.47B; guides year EPS between $7.50 and $8.50, compared with analyst views for $7.63; said sales and traffic trends accelerated in the last two months of the period.
  • TREE +13%; Q4 results significantly exceeded expectations, particularly in Insurance, growing 25% Y/Y, and Consumer (small business up 78% Y/Y and personal loans up 10% Y/Y) and Home (benefiting from home equity demand, up 6% Y/Y). Guidance was also strong, with both Q1 and FY26 outlooks well above consensus.
  • UNG +4%; as natural gas prices surge given the possibly supply disruption with Iran conflict.
  • ZD +69%; shares jumped after agreeing to sell its connectivity division to ACN for $1.2B in cash, as the division includes the Ookla, Speedtest, Ekahau, Downdetector and RootMetrics brands.

 

Stock LAGGARDS

  • AZO -4%; reported Q2 EPS $27.63 vs. est. $27.41 (but down from $28.29) while sales of $4.27B was just shy of consensus $4.31B and comp sales growth of 3.3% missed the Wall Street estimate of around +5.6%.
  • BBAI -8%; Q4 revs fell -38% y/y to $27.3M vs. est. $33.3M as miss due to lower volume on Army programs; projects 2026 revenue between $135M-$165M; says gross margin declined to 20.3% in Q4 from 37.4% y/y due to absence of significant one-time high-margin contracts from Q4 2024.
  • BX -8%; after saying in a filing that investors in the $82B Blackstone Private Credit Fund(BCRED), who usually have a chance to ask to withdraw 5% of their holdings every quarter, requested a total of 7.9% in the first quarter.
  • MDB -27%; after results and guidance as reported a solid 4% FQ4 revenue beat, though less than ~7% the prior two quarters, Atlas decelerated 1pt to 29% but the guidance of FY27 total revs and Atlas revs guided slightly below consensus, while EBIT margin met is what dragged on shares. Also announced leadership changes
  • ONON -11%; Q4 adjusted EBITDA rises 31.8%, sales up 22.6% to 743.8M Swiss francs ($949.69M), above estimates of 724.3M francs; sees at least 23% sales growth in 2026 on a constant-currency basis, below 30% rise in 2025 and said sees ‘26 profit margin increasing to at least 63%, but doesn’t include lower tariffs rate
  • SE -25%; shares tumbled as Q4 revenue rose 38.4% to $6.85B, beating analyst expectations of $6.45B, but a sharp rise in expenses weighed on shares as total op expenses rose 28% y/y to $2.43B, Q4 net income rose 72.9% y/y and adj Ebitda +33.2% y/y.
  • SGRY -20%; shares tumbled on Q4 miss, highlighted by a 6% EBITDA miss and modestly weaker SS volumes (Q4 adj EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.30 and Ebitda $156.9M vs. est. $169.2M though revs of $885M were better) and guides FY revs $3.35B-$3.45B below est. $3.56B.
  • TBPH -28%; shares tumbled after saying its experimental drug to treat a type of blood pressure disorder failed to meet the main goal in a late-stage study; the company said it is initiating a strategic review, including a possible sale of the company, after its experimental drug failed its study.

Stock offerings:

  • ALHC 13.17M share Spot Secondary, priced at 19.46 , by JPMC
  • AS 20.6M share Spot Secondary, priced at 36.40, by BAML & JPMC
  • BTSG 20M share Spot Secondary, priced at $41.15, by GSCO
  • HTO 11.5M share Spot Secondary, priced at 53.00, by JPMC & WELLS
  • MAIA 20M share Spot Secondary, priced at $1.50, by Konik Capital
  • NRG 14.3M share Spot Secondary, priced at $164.00, by BARC & Citi
  • VNOM 17.39M share Spot Secondary, priced at 45.90, by JPMC & GSCO

Closing Recap

Tuesday, March 03, 2026

Index

Up/Down

%

Last

DJ Industrials

-403.51

0.83%

48,501

S&P 500

-64.99

0.94%

6,716

Nasdaq

-232.17

1.02%

22,516

Russell 2000

-47.59

1.79%

2,608

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After a dreadful overnight futures session (Spuz was down -1.5% and Nasdaq fell as much as -2%) and big declines in Asia and Europe on inflation fears following a second sharp day of oil price hikes, investors once again stayed calm and bought the dip as markets found their footing late morning and pared losses. Today’s market action was eerily similar to yesterday, with markets opening down across the board, made new lows slightly after the open before rebounding late morning as investors continue to take advantage of any market dip. Wall Street shook off signs of a possible prolonged Middel East conflict, surging oil prices (raising inflation fears), reduced bets of interest rate cuts by the Fed due to energy prices, and a surging US dollar and Treasury yields. By early morning NYSE breadth was more than 9:1 decliners leading advancers and all eleven S&P sectors were down at least 1%, with the biggest drops in materials, industrials, and technology. Dip after dip continues to get bought as major averages hold key levels (for instance, the S&P 500 index low of 6710.42 today came just 10 points below the 12-17-25 low of 6720.43 - now over 100 points off those levels). Stocks ended lower across the board heading into some jobs data later this week.

 

Amid the rising inflation fears due to the recent surge in oil, gasoline, natural gas, interest rate cut bets by the Fed have dropped. Markets are rapidly repricing as rising energy costs push inflation expectations higher and rate cut bets lower.

Latest data from Kalshi shows: 1 cut: ~25%, 2 cuts: ~24%, and 3 cuts: ~19% and falling. At the same time: 5-year inflation expectations rose to 2.54% and odds of 2+ Fed cuts fell to 57% (from 79%). Note Treasury yields, after having tumbled over the last few weeks, are back on the rise with the 2-yr above 3.57% (off lows around 3.375 last week, lowest since Aug 2022) and the 10-yr yield back to 4.11% (after dropping below 4% just last week for first time since November).

 

Overall, stock markets finished the day lower, but significantly off its worst levels overcoming a confluence of negative factors weighing on investors’ minds such as: tech/AI impact on software, financials, credit exposure for PE, reduced interest rate cut expectations, a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, a crypto market that can’t gain traction to the upside, surging oil/inflation fears and concern of a prolonged war with Iran that could impact not just energy prices, but chemicals, agriculture prices which are all intertwined. Financials remain a place of concern for investors, particularly in private credit as Blackstone’s (BX) main $82B private credit fund (BCRED) was hit with a flood of withdrawal requests in the first quarter (requests for total of 7.9% vs, usual max of 5% each quarter), and the firm is taking steps to meet them, including Blackstone and its employees investing some $400M into the fund, known as BCRED (handled different then OWL did a few weeks ago when they initially halted the withdrawals before back tracking).

 

There were big declines in Europe and Asia overnight as Europe's Stoxx 600 was down -3.18%, Britain's FTSE 100 down -3.04%; Germany's DAX down -3.59%, France's CAC 40 down -3.5%; Spain's Ibex down -4.42%, and Euro Stoxx index down -3.57%. In Asia overnight, The Nikkei Index tumbled -1,778 points or over 3% to settle at 56,279, the Shanghai Index fell -59 points to 4,122, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -291 points to 25,768. In South Korea, the KOSPI stock index fell over -12%, its worst single day drop since the 2024 yen carry crisis, before closing at 5,791.91, down 7.24%).

Commodities

  • Precious metals all lower with March silver futures falling -$5.36 or 6.07% to settle at $82.92 an ounce while April gold futures dropped -$187.90 an ounce or 3.53% to settle at $5,123.70 an ounce as strength in the U.S. dollar, rising to more than 1-month highs took some of the recent steam out of precious metals (silver was above $95 an ounce just Sunday night). The jump in energy prices has boosted bets of less interest rate cuts on inflation fears.
  • Oil prices surged overnight before paring gains late in the day as WTI crude oil settled up +$3.33/bbl, or +4.67%, at $74.56 (off earlier highs of $77.98), while Brent rose $3.66 or 4.71% to settle at $81.40 per barrel (off earlier highs $85.12). Oil prices came down off highs late day after President Trump noted on Truth Social platform that the US government will backstop war insurance for all shipping in the Persian Gulf. In addition, he says the U.S. Navy will provide naval escort to tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The U.S. dollar rises to more than one-month high, up nearly 1% for the DXY dollar index (hit 99.68 high but ended down around 99) and another big gain vs the euro while U.S. Treasury yields shot higher. The euro pared losses late day to around 1.161, down -0.63% but well off morning lows 1.1531

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

WTI Crude

3.33

74.56

Brent

5.98

81.40

Gold

-187.90

5,123.70

EUR/USD

-0.0073

1.1615

JPY/USD

0.31

157.65

10-Year Note

0.008

4.056%

 

Sector News Breakdown

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:

  • Hardline/Broadline: TGT Q4 adj EPS $2.44 tops consensus $2.16 as revs of $30.45B fell -1.5% y/y, but mostly in-line with consensus $30.47B; guides year EPS between $7.50 and $8.50, compared with analyst views for $7.63; said sales and traffic trends accelerated in the last two months of the period.
  • Footwear & Apparel: shares of ONON shares slide as Q4 adjusted EBITDA rises 31.8%, sales up 22.6% to 743.8M Swiss francs ($949.69M), above estimates of 724.3M francs, but guidance weighed as sees at least 23% sales growth in 2026 on a constant-currency basis, below 30% rise in 2025.
  • Auto Parts Retail: AZO reported Q2 EPS $27.63 vs. est. $27.41 (but down from $28.29) while sales of $4.27B was just shy of consensus $4.31B and comp sales growth of 3.3% missed the Wall Street estimate of around +5.6%; AutoZone opened 43 new stores in the U.S., 18 in Mexico and three in Brazil for a total of 64 net new stores.
  • Consumer Electronics: BBY Q4 adj EPS $2.61 topped the $2.47 estimate while revs $13.81B, mostly in-line with $13.88B estimate; increased quarterly dividend by 1% to $0.96 per share; guided FY comp sales to be down 1% to up 1%, compared with analysts' estimates of a 1.63% rise and EPS $6.30-$6.60 vs. est $6.65.
  • Cruise, online travel and lodging names down again early amid a spike in oil for a second day as inflation fears renewed which could impact consumer discretionary spending, while rising oil prices impact airlines/travel/cruise names (CCL, RCL, NCLH).

Energy, Industrials and Defense

  • Satellite news: ASTS reported revenue $54.3M, bringing 2H26 in line with guide while revenue for the full year was $70.9M, driven by the delivery of 15 gateways and ramping government service contracts. Commercial service revenue is a 2027 story; Q4 adj operating expenses were $95.7M, up $28M as compared to $67.7M in Q3.
  • Drones & Aerospace: AVAV shares rebounded after falling over -17% Monday after analysts pointed to potential loss of exclusivity on co's $1.4B contract with U.S. Space Force's Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource (SCAR) program. Today, AVAV issued a statement saying it remains in active negotiations with U.S. Space Force regarding the contract to deliver ground stations to support SCAR; ACHR shares fell after its Q4 net loss increased by $59.0M from Q3’25 to a loss of $188.9M primarily driven by $59.9M increase in operating expenses; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was a loss of (-$137.9M), which is within the guidance range of $110M-$140M.
  • In Alternative Power/Solar: PLUG reported markedly improved financials for 2025 vs 2024, has plans to further reduce capital Intensity, and is targeting further improvements in profitability for 2026, targeting positive EBITDA in Q426 (Q4 adj EPS ($0.06) vs est ($0.10) on revs $225.2Mm vs est $217.77Mm).

Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:

  • Private Equity/Private credit/Alt Managers: BX shares fell after saying in a filing that investors in the $82B Blackstone Private Credit Fund(BCRED), who usually have a chance to ask to withdraw 5% of their holdings every quarter, requested a total of 7.9% in the first quarter (news weighed on ARES, KKR, OWL, CG). Anxiety has climbed in private credit market due to questions about valuations and transparency, while broader credit quality concerns were fanned by two bankruptcies last year. ARES announced that an Ares Private Equity fund has closed a single-asset continuation vehicle with approximately $850M in total commitments for Convergint Technologies, L.P., a global leader in service-based systems integration
  • In Consumer Lending: TREE Q4 results significantly exceeded expectations, particularly in Insurance, growing 25% Y/Y, and Consumer (small business up 78% Y/Y and personal loans up 10% Y/Y) and Home (benefiting from home equity demand, up 6% Y/Y). Guidance was also strong, with both Q1 and FY26 outlooks well above consensus, driven by continued Insurance momentum and small business scaling. B Riley said the
  • In FinTech: DAVE reported a strong quarter and provided 2026 guidance that was well above consensus on revenue and EBITDA (Q4 adj EPS $3.69 vs. consensus $3.75 and revs $163.7M vs. est. $162.28M) and issued better guidance as sees FY26 adj EPS $14.00-$15.00, vs. ests $13.89 and revs $690M-$710M vs. est. $633.33M.

Biotech & Pharma:

  • ESPR agreed to acquire Corstasis Therapeutics for $75m in cash, adding Enbumyst, the first FDA-approved nasal spray diuretic for treating edema associated with congestive heart failure.
  • QURE was downgraded by several Wall Street analysts negative commentary from the Commissioner last week and confirmed Monday that the FDA is not willing to approve AMT-130 in Huntington's disease based on comparison to Natural history.
  • TBPH shares tumbled after saying its experimental drug to treat a type of blood pressure disorder failed to meet the main goal in a late-stage study; the company said it is initiating a strategic review, including a possible sale of the company, after its experimental drug failed its study.
  • Secondary offerings: BTSG 20M share Spot Secondary priced at $41.15; MAIA 20M share Spot Secondary, priced at $1.50

Healthcare Services & MedTech movers:

  • Healthcare Facilities/Services: SGRY shares tumbled on Q4 miss, highlighted by a 6% EBITDA miss and modestly weaker SS volumes (Q4 adj EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.30 and Ebitda $156.9M vs. est. $169.2M though revs of $885M were better) and guides FY revs $3.35B-$3.45B below est. $3.56B.
  • In Manage Care: CI announces President & coo Brian Evanko to succeed David M. Cordani as Chief Executive Officer; company reaffirms 2026 financial outlook
  • Healthcare Operator: SEM said that it would be taken private by a consortium in a deal that values the healthcare operator at $3.9B. A consortium led by some of its executives, including Executive Chairman Robert Ortenzio, and private equity firm Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, will pay $16.50 in cash.

Materials, Metals & Mining

  • Precious metals tumbled sending precious metals miners, especially for silver (AG, CDE, HL, PAAS) sharply lower for a second day as silver trades to $81 an ounce, down from Sunday night peaks around $95 an ounce. Gold also tumbled, as both metals along with commodity prices in general saw selling pressure amid a rebound in the dollar.
  • In Chemicals: MOS was downgraded to Equal Weight, stay Overweight on CF at Barclay’s saying the US/Israel strikes on Iran have potential to bolster Nitrogen pricing for at least 1H26, providing further upside for North American producers, given the strain on LNG in the EU. Potash should be fairly stable while Phosphate will face higher ammonia input costs.
  • Lithium miners declined (ALB, SQM, SGML, LAC) fall as weaker sales from major electric vehicle manufacturers and escalating Middle East tensions dampened demand prospects. The most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 12.99% to close daytime trading at 150,860 yuan a metric ton.

Internet, Media & Telecom

  • In Internet: SE shares tumbled as Q4 revenue rose 38.4% to $6.85B, beating analyst expectations of $6.45B, but a sharp rise in expenses weighed on shares as total op expenses rose 28% y/y to $2.43B, Q4 net income rose 72.9% y/y and adj Ebitda +33.2% y/y; Shopee's Q4 revenue increased by 35.8% due to higher GMV, driven by increased order volumes; said expects Shopee's adjusted EBITDA no lower than that of 2025 in absolute dollar terms. PINS shares rallied early after Hedge fund Elliott Investment Management is investing $1 billion in PINS through convertible bonds/initial conversion price of $22.72 represents a 30% premium to PINS last close.
  • HPC Data Centers: Bitcoin miners turned HPC data centers CORZ, RIOT reported earnings. Opco notes for CORZ, Financial results remain secondary at the moment given it is still in construction development for its HPC datacenters as the company has 590MW under contract, 1.5GW of leasable pipeline capacity, and 700MW in load studies bringing total potential longer-term capacity to ~2.8GW. CORZ announced a major new site, and by next earnings expects to announce a major new customer and new financing agreement. RIOT posted a top & bottom line miss driven by weakness in mining, while expenses included SG&A grew faster than expectations.

Hardware & Software movers:

  • Software stocks tumble, led by weakness in MDB after results and guidance as reported a solid 4% FQ4 revenue beat, though less than ~7% the prior two quarters, Atlas decelerated 1pt to 29% but the guidance of FY27 total revs and Atlas revs guided slightly below consensus, while EBIT margin met is what dragged on shares. Also announced leadership changes as the CRO and the President of Field Operations are departing.
  • In PC/Hardware: Apple (AAPL) updated its MacBook Air and MacBook Pro lines, equipping the Air with the M5 chip and the Pro with new M5 Pro and M5 Max processors to boost sales. It also introduced two new Studio Display versions, including a brighter model. The Air follows last year’s M4 release, while the Pro marks its first high-end refresh since late 2024. Apple says both lines are four times faster for AI tasks, with the Air now starting at 512GB and configurable up to 4TB. The Apple 13-inch MacBook air with m5 starts at $1,099 (U.S.), the 15-inch MacBook air with m5 starts at $1,299 (U.S.); said customers can pre-order March 4th.
  • Equipment & Parts: OUST shares rallied after delivered substantial upside to 4Q25 results as it recognized a 1x license payment while guiding 1Q26 ahead of expectations as the Stereolabs acquisition starts to contribute to financials; ZD shares jumped after agreeing to sell its connectivity division to Accenture (ACN) for $1.2B in cash, as the division includes the Ookla, Speedtest, Ekahau, Downdetector and RootMetrics brands.
  • Memory sector, which has been one of the top sectors for more than a year (SNDK, MU, WDC) saw massive selling pressure as following a massive decline in South Korea as the Kospi Index tumbled 7.2% today, its worst day in a year and a half (after falling as much as 12%) where shares of memory chip giants Sk Hynix and Samsung Electronics tumbled almost 12% and 10%, respectively.

Not offered or endorsed by Regal Securities

Street Recommendations

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

BARCLAYS

  • MOS Barclays downgraded Mosaic to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $31. The firm says the U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran will bring higher ammonia input costs for phosphate. Barclays cites Mosaic's "continued underperformance from asset issues" for the downgrade.
  • AAPL Barclays raised the firm's price target on Apple to $248 from $239 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm now believes the September iPhone launch will include the foldable and Pro models, with base models moving to Spring of 2027. Apple's fiscal 2027 iPhone units may not move much higher on price elasticity and memory concerns, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
  • CRC Barclays raised the firm's price target on California Resources to $67 from $65 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company continues to demonstrate improving capital efficiency with its 2026 capex below Street estimates for in-line production, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
  • CF Barclays analyst Benjamin Theurer raised the firm's price target on CF Industries to $120 from $100 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran have potential to bolster nitrogen pricing for at least the first half of 2026, providing further upside for North American producers. Potash should be fairly stable while phosphate will face higher ammonia input costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
  • NTR Barclays raised the firm's price target on Nutrien to $80 from $70 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says the U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran have potential to bolster nitrogen pricing for at least the first half of 2026, providing further upside for North American producers. Potash should be fairly stable while phosphate will face higher ammonia input costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
  • SGRY Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Surgery Partners to $14 from $18 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. While expectations were low, Surgery's results still disappointed and its new issues will take time to sort out, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

BERNSTEIN

  • SABR Bernstein downgraded Sabre to Market Perform from Outperform with a $1.50 price target. The firm is "unconvinced" that global distribution systems will make money from AI distribution. Bernstein cites its lower booking forecasts for the downgrade of Sabre.
  • MDB Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $428 from $452 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes MongoDB delivered healthy results for Q4 and conservative initial FY27 guidance. While the stock was down about 25% in the aftermarket, potentially due to Atlas growth missing expectations or and conservative guidance, Bernstein believes this is an overreaction as this quarter's results did not break its thesis but in fact reaffirmed its view that consumption momentum is going strong. This quarter feels like a deja-vu from this time last year, argues Bernstein. The firm thinks a selloff presents an attractive entry point for the stock.
  • GE Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned raised the firm's price target on GE Aerospace to $405 from $374 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares with an increasingly positive outlook for the name. The firm is updating its outlook for GE, as Bernstein completes a new deep dive into the engine business and incorporates information from 2025 results and 2026 guidance from GE and Safran.

BOFA

  • U BofA analyst Omar Dessouky upgraded Unity to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $19, up from $18. Weaker-than-expected Q1 guidance has "likely deflated" buyside's calendar year 2026 estimate, reducing the risk of further cuts, while near-term catalysts appear balanced, the analyst tells investors. The firm would look for aggressive Q2 guidance to signal the beginning of a sustained Grow segment acceleration, the analyst added.
  • NCLH BofA lowered the firm's price target on Norwegian Cruise Line to $27 from $30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Following the CEO change over two weeks ago, the firm "knew the company's business was not progressing as planned" and with Q4 earnings, Norwegian re-set its 2026 expectations with an EPS outlook of $2.38, below the Visible Alpha consensus of $2.58 and the company's own target of $2.45 given at the May 2024 investor day, the analyst noted. Little in terms of strategy was announced, so patience is required, the analyst added.
  • ASAN BofA lowered the firm's price target on Asana to $14 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While "encouraged" by continued progress on NRR and constructive commentary on gross retention trends, the firm does not view Q4 results and initial FY27 revenue guidance as "incrementally positive enough to represent the positive catalyst bulls were looking for," the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note. In addition to rolling forward its multiple, the firm is adjusting for slightly lower estimates and peer multiple compression.
  • OCUL BofA analyst Tazeen Ahmad raised the firm's price target on Ocular Therapeutix to $27 from $24 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Comprehensive analyses from the Phase 3 SOL-1 trial provided important clarity on key questions following the topline readout, says the analyst, who thinks these data "strongly support the case for approval" and de-risk the diabetic retinopathy program.
  • MDB BofA lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $400 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While the firm has no change to its long-term bull thesis after the database vendor reported "mixed" results, it revised forecasts for an updated views on growth and margin potential and revised its price target to account for infrastructure software peer group multiple compression.
  • JNJ BofA analyst Jason Gerberry raised the firm's price target on Johnson & Johnson to $253 from $227 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm increased its J&J out-year revenue estimates to reflect updated views on certain near-to-market pipeline assets, notably Tecvayli and Inlexzo, along with what it sees as a knock-on effect from strong Tecvayli data to Darzalex treatment duration.
  • WLK BofA raised the firm's price target on Westlake to $115 from $82 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following stronger Q4 results and early signs of possible cycle acceleration. Across earnings, and at the firm's conference, the firm found Westlake to be "cautiously optimistic that the outlook for chlor-alkali and vinyls and its own earnings profile are improving," the analyst tells investors.

CANACCORD

  • AMRC Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Ameresco to $50 from $44 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Ameresco delivered healthy results with beefy guidance calling for 2026 growth of 9% and 19% at the midpoint in revenue and EBITDA, respectively. The company also emphasized the magnitude of inbound data center interest, noting that they are "getting more requests than we can handle," underscoring the outsized demand for resilient, onsite power solutions.
  • DAVE Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi raised the firm's price target on Dave to $328 from $274 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said the company delivered outsized growth and margin performance again in Q4 and for full year 2025 relative to its own guidance while also materially outperforming the broader FinTech sector. We believe the overall DAVE value proposition continues to resonate very well, as evidenced by modestly accelerating, high teens monthly transacting member growth combined with 2025 price increases, which were easily absorbed without negative churn headwinds.
  • MDB Canaccord analyst Kingsley Crane lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $375 from $455 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said the company delivered what was objectively a strong finish to FY26, with FQ4 revenue of $695.1M growing 27% yyear over year and coming in well ahead of the roughly $668M implied by management's prior guide, which the firm has come to realize is typically conservative. As a result, the firm said to buy the shares on weakness.
  • NTLA Canaccord lowered the firm's price target on Intellia Therapeutics to $48 from $54 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm noted that the clinical hold on the MAGNITUDE Ph3 study in ATTR-CM has been lifted. An updated protocol will be implemented and includes enhanced liver monitoring tests (blood draws) and guidance for short-term course of steroids in response to any elevations.

CITI

  • WHD Citi raised the firm's price target on Cactus to $63 from $55 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q4 report as solid. The shares sold off as elevated expectations for Cactus' new International Pressure Control business were not met, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi views the shares as attractive at current levels.

GOLDMAN SACHS

  • PTGX Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) to $95 from $65 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the Q4 earnings report and notes that management expects to opt-out of the 50/50 profit and loss sharing arrangement for rusfertide with Takeda (TAK) in Q2.
  • QURE Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter lowered the firm's price target on uniQure to $9 from $37 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Shares declined after the FDA indicated in a recent Type A meeting that Phase 1/2 data for AMT-130 in Huntington's disease, using natural history as an external control, is insufficient for a BLA filing and that a randomized, sham-controlled Phase 3 trial will be required, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company plans a Type B meeting in Q2 to clarify trial design and strategy, is advancing longer-term follow-up data and ex-U.S. regulatory discussions, and continues to navigate mixed progress across its earlier-stage gene therapy programs, including paused enrollment in AMT-162, dose holds in AMT-191, and upcoming data for AMT-260, the firm says.
  • MYRG Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on MYR Group to $296 from $248 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Approximately 10% revenue growth is projected for 2026, with 10%-11% annual growth expected through 2030, supported by rising utility grid investment in T&D and expanding data center construction in C&I, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Margin expansion toward the high end of long-term targets is anticipated as operating leverage improves, with potential upside from large transmission awards, though much of the medium-term growth outlook appears reflected in the current valuation pending greater visibility on long-term guidance and major project timing, the firm says.
  • MTZ Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on MasTec to $348 from $245 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Discussions with MasTec CEO Jose Mas and VP of IR Chris Mecray reinforced confidence in MasTec's strategy to drive growth across pipeline infrastructure, turnkey data centers, and transmission and distribution spending, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company is positioned to benefit from interconnection pipelines and long-haul projects, expand self-performed turnkey data center work to enhance margins, pursue selective acquisitions, and leverage ongoing utility capex tailwinds, with multiple operational optimizations expected to support further revenue and margin expansion, Goldman argues.

JPMORGAN

  • RACE JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi raised the firm's price target on Ferrari to $447 from $407 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the fiscal 2025 results.
  • TV JPMorgan analyst Marcelo Santos downgraded Televisa to Neutral from Overweight without a price target. The firm says TelevisaUnivision will likely face higher than expected costs in 2026 and de-lever less than expected. In addition, Televisa's cable operations in Mexico are entering a cycle of investment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
  • BX JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Blackstone to $122 from $158 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says Blackstone's BCRED, the largest non-traded business development company and flagship credit wealth product with $82.5B of total investments at fair value, indicated Q1 redemption requests for 7.9% of the December 2025 net asset value, representing a "notable uptick" from redemption requests of 4.5% Q4. JPMorgan decreased Blackstone's estimates to reflect net flows impact on management fees.
  • NCLH JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss lowered the firm's price target on Norwegian Cruise Line to $19 from $20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the Q4 report. The company set fiscal 2026 guidance below consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

KEEFE BRUYETTE

  • TCPC Keefe Bruyette downgraded BlackRock TCP Capital to Underperform from Market Perform with a price target of $3.50, down from $7. The company reported a "very poor quarter," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says BlackRock TCP significantly wrote down several investments which reduced net asset value by 19%. Keefe expects these issues to continue to weigh on the company's book value.
  • DAVE Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Dave to $295 from $250 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Dave reported a strong quarter and provided 2026 guidance that was well above consensus on revenue and EBITDA, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

KEYBANC

  • ASAN KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader lowered the firm's price target on Asana to $15 from $18 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes that when it upgraded Asana in December, KeyBanc expected stabilization in the low-end funnel, the tech sector, and AI products to potentially accelerate revenue growth. Management is seeing these things play out, just not to the extent needed to lift the overall business, leading, broadly, to a disappointing outlook for next year.
  • HLIO KeyBanc analyst Jeffrey Hammond raised the firm's price target on Helios Technologies to $82 from $74 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Following the company's Q4 earnings release, although the initial 2026 outlook is only in-line with consensus vs. the now higher bar in Short-Cycle, the firm feels this reflects a meaningful degree of conservatism and is encouraged by the growing momentum exhibited in both Hydraulics and Electronics. While the stock has meaningfully re-rated amid much improved Short-Cycle sentiment, KeyBanc continues to see shares moving higher long-term as self-help levers and end-market recovery drive sustained positive estimate revisions.
  • MCD KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on McDonald's to $354 from $340 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is not updating its earnings estimates at this time, but based on its recent industry conversations and proprietary card data, KeyBanc remains confident in the current momentum of the U.S. business.

MIZUHO

  • QURE Mizuho analyst Uy Ear downgraded uniQure to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $12, down from $33. The firm has "materially lower confidence" in the regulatory flexibility for AMT-130 in Huntington's disease following the Type A meeting with the FDA. The FDA set a high bar by "strongly" recommending a sham surgery-controlled Phase 3 trial, the analyst tells investors in a research note. MIzuho believes such a study would be challenging to execute and "potentially unethical." It thinks the agency is unlikely to reverse course.
  • MTZ Mizuho analyst Maheep Mandloi raised the firm's price target on MasTec to $362 from $254 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's quarter shows "strong" cross-segment growth, growing margins, and a backlog that supports guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho cites MasTec's better than expected revenue growth across other segments for the target boost.
  • MDB Mizuho analyst Siti Panigrahi lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $290 from $380 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q4 report as solid. However, with the shares trading at a premium to software peers, MongoDB's "soft" fiscal 2027 guidance disappointed investors as its valuation multiple "leaves little room for growth deceleration," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

MORGAN STANLEY

  • NVO Morgan Stanley upgraded Novo Nordisk to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $40, down from $42. Post the selloff on the REDEFINE-4 data, Novo's valuation better reflects its mid-term growth uncertainty and the loss of exclusivity risks on semaglutide, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says consensus estimates have rebased.

NEEDHAM

  • MDB Needham analyst Mike Cikos lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $300 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock was a "crowded long" into the earnings print and disappointing guidance, though the firm remains positive on the name and expects Atlas to surpass the reset to Buy-side assumptions, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
  • TREE Needham lowered the firm's price target on LendingTree to $60 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 results significantly exceeded expectations, particularly in Insurance, growing 25% Y/Y, and Consumer and Home benefiting from home equity demand, though the firm is reducing its price target based on recent multiple compression for "lead-gen stocks", the analyst tells investors in a research note.
  • ACHR Needham lowered the firm's price target on Archer Aviation to $9 from $10 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 results. Bullish scenarios for FY26 are easily visible, with Archer controlling their own destiny as they begin flying the latest version of their Midnight aircraft and with transition flight and public eIPP - eVTOL Integration Pilot Program - flights serving as near and medium term catalysts against lowered expectations given challenges in FY25, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
  • RIOT Needham analyst John Todaro lowered the firm's price target on Riot Platforms to $24 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company posted a top & bottom line miss driven by weakness in mining, while expenses, including SG&A, grew faster than expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Needham adds it is reducing 2026 mining estimates to reflect lower bitcoin prices for the year.

NORTHLAND

  • DIBS Northland upgraded 1stDibs to Outperform from Market Perform with an unchanged price target of $7. The firm believes the company's Q4 results and Q1 outlook "will prove to be an inflection point in the story." The quarter marked 1stDibs' first adjusted EBITDA profitable quarter since its 2021 initial public offering, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Northland has increased confidence that the company's internal efforts can drive a return to growth. It sees a "more compelling setup" following the post-earnings selloff.

OPPENHEIMER

  • MDB Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $375 from $425 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes MongoDB delivered solid Q4 results above consensus, yet issued mixed initial FY27 revenue guidance, with Atlas growth slightly below expectations. Much of the recent outperformance reflects large non-Atlas multi-year/bundled renewals, showing a clear opportunity in on-premise environments that the company can capitalize on through better bundling and upcoming feature improvements. And while initial Atlas growth was a bit light, Oppenheimer believes it offers upside and reflects management conservatism.
  • TDOC Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Teladoc to $7 from $12 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes Teladoc reported better than expected Q4 results, with adjusted EBITDA of $83.8M and revenues of $642M. The company also issued 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $266M-$308M vs. OPCO/Street's prior $321M/$315M, and revenue guidance of $2.47B-2.59B vs. OPCO/Street's prior $2.59B/$2.59B.

PIPER SANDLER

  • ASAN Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Asana to $9 from $14 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company continues to execute on its turnaround, with improvements in down sells and expansion, accelerating cRPO growth of 17% year-over-year, and AI cross-sell. Encouragingly, AI is expected to be 15% of NNARR in FY27, aided by the GA of AI Teammates.
  • CI Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Cigna to $370 from $374 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's pioneering rebate-free PBS model will help Cigna comply with the 2026 CAA, meet the terms of its FTC settlement, and reshape public perception of PBMs, the firm says. These efforts derisk the long-term PBS growth algorithm and deserve multiple expansion, in Piper's view.
  • AVAV Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on AeroVironment to $290 from $391 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes that yesterday, Space News published an article reporting the U.S. Space Force would be reopening the SCAR program for competition after previously awarding a sole-source contract to BlueHalo for $1.7B. This comes about 6 weeks after announcement of a stop work order on the program in order to redefine the specifications and ensure the product achieved agency needs without unnecessary cost. While Piper does not have confirmation on the change, it believes BADGER risks are rising and is lowering its estimates and price target as a result.

RBC CAPITAL

  • HCSG RBC Capital analyst Ryan Halsted initiated coverage of Healthcare Services with a Sector Perform rating and $22 price target. The company is benefitting from improving unit economics and payor policies around clinical quality is a potential driver of increased demand for outsourcing of its non-clinical services, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, RBC cites its concerns around labor supply and the stock's valuation after the recent rally for the neutral rating.
  • ORA RBC Capital initiated coverage of Ormat Technologies with an Outperform rating and $130 price target. Ormat is a vertically integrated market leader in geothermal energy development, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes geothermal is well positioned to support the growing demands of hyperscalers and transactions. Ormat is positioned to provide a source of always-on clean power, contends RBC.
  • SEM RBC Capital downgraded Select Medical to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $16.50, down from $19, after the company agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Executive Chairman and Co-founder Bob Ortenzio for $16.50 per share.
  • IQV RBC Capital analyst Ryan Halsted initiated coverage of Iqvia with an Outperform rating and $221 price target. The firm sees numerous data points suggesting an increase in clinical trial activity into 2026. Iqvia is positioned to benefit from an "inflection" in the contract research organization market more than others based on its "unique" data analytics capabilities built with over 64 petabytes of data, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

ROSENBLATT

  • LITE Rosenblatt analyst Mike Genovese raised the firm's price target on Lumentum to $900 from $580 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Nvidia is investing $2B each in Lumentum and Coherent, and is placing multi-billion dollar purchase commitments with each company to secure future capacity access rights for advanced laser and other optical components, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Rosenblatt believes the deals are driven by co-packaged optics. It cites higher earnings power for the target boost.
  • COHR Rosenblatt raised the firm's price target on Coherent to $375 from $300 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Nvidia is investing $2B each in Lumentum and Coherent, and is placing multi-billion dollar purchase commitments with each company to secure future capacity access rights for advanced laser and other optical components, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Rosenblatt believes the deals are driven by co-packaged optics. It cites higher earnings power for the target boost.
  • PLTR Rosenblatt raised the firm's price target on Palantir to $200 from $150 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The U.S. government has ordered a six-month phase out period for Anthropic's LLMs, which the firm thinks will leave "ample time" to switch over to one of the many other LLMs that are supported by Palantir, says the analyst, who thinks global instability and the need for comprehensive wartime solutions are likely to lead to deals like the U.S. army deal in July that rolled 75 contracts into just one with Palantir. Over time, the firm thinks the Middle East conflict is "likely to highlight the strength and leverage of Palantir's solution vs. just another LLM," the analyst added.

STIFEL

  • MDB Stifel lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $330 from $450 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While upside was slimmer and the FY27 guide was "conservative," the firm still believes MongoDB remains well positioned in "this challenging tape" given healthy diversified Atlas consumption, strong customer acquisition, improving sales execution, and the emerging AI opportunity, the analyst tells investors.
  • ZYME Stifel raised the firm's price target on Zymeworks to $47 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Meaningful FY26 catalysts include an additional planned OS analysis from HERIZON-GEA-01 in mid-FY26, the likely approval and launch of Zani in first-line GEA in the second half, additional Phase 1 ZW191 dose-escalation/expansion data and multiple presentations from the R&D portfolio at the April AACR meeting, the analyst tells investors.
  • NCLH Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski lowered the firm's price target on Norwegian Cruise Line to $30 from $31 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. 2026 initial guidance was slightly weaker than the firm and Street were expecting, but that "makes sense" given the change in leadership and activist involvement, says the analyst, who calls Norwegian's commentary about certain operating markets "more concerning."
  • WHR Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Whirlpool to $68 from $75 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm, which is reducing estimates for dilution following Whirlpool's offering of common equity and depository shares, tempered by interest rate savings, now estimates $6.00 in FY26 EPS.
  • EME Stifel analyst Brian Brophy raised the firm's price target on Emcor to $814 from $754 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q4 revenue came in above expectations, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in U.S. Electrical and U.S. Mechanical, notes the analyst, who believes U.S. Electrical operating margins are likely to improve in 2026.

UBS

  • BRK UBS lowered the firm's price target on Berkshire Hathaway Class A to $866,429 from $880,905 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Although quarterly results were softer than expected and the re/insurance outlook remains cautious amid competitive pricing, shares are expected to outperform in a volatile geopolitical backdrop given their defensive profile, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company benefits from diversified earnings, strong liquidity, and U.S.-focused operations, with management likely prioritizing margin improvement at BNSF, retention gains at GEICO while preserving profitability, and disciplined navigation of re/insurance pricing through 2026-2027, the firm says.
  • GIII UBS analyst Mauricio Serna lowered the firm's price target on G-III Apparel (GIII) to $30 from $32 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. A 5c Q4 EPS beat is expected on stronger-than-anticipated gross margins, but attention is likely to center on FY27 guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note Retail caution and a $400M revenue headwind from PVH (PVH) license roll-offs could drive EPS guidance below the $3.03 consensus estimate, creating an unfavorable risk/reward dynamic around the event, the firm says.
  • LNG UBS raised the firm's price target on Cheniere Energy to $301 from $277 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Management highlighted that repeat customers signing incremental sale and purchase agreements reinforce Cheniere's credibility and position as a trusted, long-term partner, signaling sustained commercial momentum and customer confidence, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

WELLS FARGO

  • NCLH Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Norwegian Cruise Line to $32 from $33 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes management sees 2026 as a year to improve execution of commercial strategy and cross-functional alignment. Norwegian's 40% increase in Caribbean capacity in Q1 called out as primary cause, while management remains committed to driving higher occupancy. Wells expects investors' patience may be rewarded in the months/quarters to come.
  • NTLA Wells Fargo analyst Yanan Zhu raised the firm's price target on Intellia Therapeutics to $15 from $12 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm thinks the lift of the clinical hold on the Phase 3 ATTR-CM study is a positive development. Next catalysts include HAE Phase 3 data in mid-2026 and continued execution of ATTR studies, with focus on effectiveness of the mitigation strategies.
  • TDUP Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on ThredUP to $10 from $13 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm highlights another robust print with conservatism baked into Q1/full year plan. Revenue trends remain above algorithm and margins should continue to move higher. While shares have materially pulled back, Wells doesn't see any change to fundamentals.
  • MDB Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $375 from $450 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While Q4 and outlook missed vs high expectations into the print, the firm thinks long-term growth tailwinds remain intact. Setup from here becomes more appealing, Wells adds.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

 

 

 

 

 

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What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

 

Monday March 2nd

Economic Calendar: 

  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Feb final
  • 10:00 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI for February

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: AAON ADT BRK.B CGEN CRC KOS KSPI NCLH NEXT QURE RDNT SATS SEE SNN TPB UNIT URGN VG WHF XERS ZYME
  • Earnings After the Close: ACHR AIV ASAN ASTS BBAI CORZ CRDO DAVE GAIA GRRR HLIO HROW IHRT INGM JRVR LIF LMB MDB OUST PLUG QUBT RGR RIOT SGRY STNE SUPV TDUP TREE TUYA VTS

Other Key Events:

  • Citizens Technology Conference, 3/2, in San Francisco, CA
  • Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
  • Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
  • Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
  • TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

Tuesday March 3rd

Economic Calendar: 

  • 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: ADV AMLX AZO BBY CVEO EVGO FSTR KTB MRX MYE ONON RGNX SE SRAD SRRK TGT THO UPLD VIK VSNT
  • Earnings After the Close: ACEL ARCT BGS BOX BRCB CRCT CRWD CYRX EOLS FTEK GTLB HRZN MEC NPCE ORN RIGL ROST RYAM SGC SSTI STAA SWIM WBTN

Other Key Events:

  • Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
  • Keybanc Emerging Technology Summit in San Francisco, 3/3
  • Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
  • Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
  • TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA
  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI, for February
  • China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for February

Wednesday March 4th

Economic Calendar: 

  • 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:15 AM ET ADP Private Payroll data for February
  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite PMI, Feb-final
  • 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Feb-final
  • 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February
  • 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: ANF ASPS BBWI BF.A CSTE DAKT DY EWCZ EYE EYPT GENI HLLY NEXN REAX SMRT STVN VSTM WBX WIX
  • Earnings After the Close: AEO ALTO AQST ARDT ATNI AVGO BULL CBRL CCRN CDLX CHPT EHAB GO HDSN ICCC IPI LUNG MG MX NNBR OKTA OOMA REI REPX RGTI SES SGHT STEM STUB TPVG VEEV

Other Key Events:

  • Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy, and Utilities Conference, 3/2-3/4, in New York
  • Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA
  • RBC Capital Geothermal Investor Conference, 3/4 in New York
  • Stifel Diversified Financials & Industrials Summit, 3/2-3/4, in Florida
  • TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference, 3/2-3/4, in Boston, MA

Thursday March 5th

Economic Calendar: 

  • 6:00 AM ET                   Challenger Layoffs for February
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Import Prices M/M for January
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Export Prices M/M for January
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Nonfarm productivity for Q4
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Unit Labor Costs for Q4, preliminary
  • 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: AMPX ATHM BILI BJ BURL BVS CIEN DSGR EVGN FTCI GOTU GSL JD KR MDWD OLPX PKOH PMTS RNGR SSYS TNGX TOUR VSCO WLY
  • Earnings After the Close: AEYE AKA ASLE COO COOK COST ERO EVC GAP GDYN GEVO GPRO GWRE III IOT MEOH MRVL NX OPRX PBR PRTS SOBO

Other Key Events:

  • Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, & Telecom Conference, 3/2-3/5, in San Francisco, CA

Friday March 6th

Economic Calendar: 

  • 8:30 AM ET                   Nonfarm Payrolls for February
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Private Payrolls for February
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Manufacturing Payrolls for February
  • 8:30 AM ET                   Unemployment Rate for February
  • 8:30 AM Et                    Average Hourly Earnings M/M and Y/Y for February
  • 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
  • 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for January

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: AQN DTI GCO KINS TEN TUSK

Other Key Events:

  • DA Davidson 3rd Annual Best of Breed Bison Conference 3/6, (virtual)

 

 

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