Early Look
Friday, April 25, 2025
Futures | Up/Down | % | Last |
Dow | -196.00 | 0.49% | 40,066 |
S&P 500 | -13.25 | 0.24% | 5,498 |
Nasdaq | -58.50 | 0.30% | 19,263 |
U.S. stock futures are slipping, erasing overnight gains, with as major averages attempting a 4-day win streak (would be first since mid-January) as trade tensions cool and Fed officials point to possible early rate cuts. The S&P 500 officially exited correction territory on Thursday and has now made back a substantial portion of the year's losses, closing Thursday down -6.7% in 2025 after being down as much as -17% on April 8. Tech shares soared on Thursday with Nasdaq rising 2.74% and it is 5.4% higher this week amid strength in Mega cap tech and semis recovering. Nasdaq futures got another boost last night after a better earnings report by GOOGL (shares +5% overnight) and a $70B buyback announcement. In trade news overnight, Bloomberg reported China is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports including medical equipment, ethane and plane leasing. Beijing's exemptions pushed the U.S. dollar up slightly and lifted equity markets in Hong Kong and Japan, but markets have since pulled back (Spuz flat after being up more than 40-points) as President Trump is speaking this morning. Treasury yields hold steady with 10-yr around 4.30%, gold prices fall over -1% to $3,315 an ounce, oil slips and the dollar bounces. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 666 points or 1.9% to 35,705, the Shanghai Index fell -2 points to 3,295, and the Hang Seng Index rose 70 points to 21,980. In Europe, the German DAX is up 154 points to 22,219, while the FTSE 100 is flat at 8,407.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
Economic Calendar for Today
Earnings Calendar:
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
Nymex | -0.57 | 62.22 |
Brent | -0.34 | 66.21 |
Gold | -32.50 | 3,316.10 |
EUR/USD | -0.0035 | 1.1354 |
JPY/USD | 0.77 | 143.49 |
10-Year Note | -0.002 | 4.303% |
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
Energy, Industrials and Materials
Financials
Healthcare
Technology, Media & Telecom
Mid-Morning Look
Friday, April 25, 2025
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | -350.50 | 0.87% | 39,745 |
S&P 500 | -22.50 | 0.43% | 5,461 |
Nasdaq | 31.72 | 0.18% | 17,135 |
Russell 2000 | -11.97 | 0.61% | 1,945 |
U.S. stocks bounced between gains and losses early morning until after the open as several headlines related to trade and tariffs out of the US and China were conflicting, leaving markets uncertain. US stocks then pushed higher following positive economic data that showed improved confidence and lowered inflation expectations. Stocks however have since pulled back in a bit of “tug of-war” action this morning as traders weigh profit taking after solid gains this week and ahead of the weekend as the S&P 500 looks to post its first 4-day win streak since the middle of January as investors cheer the start of a busy week of quarterly earnings. Tech got solid results from GOOGL overnight in the Mag7 sector, helping the Internet/AI plays, while INTC slumped on a weaker outlook. Some headlines out overnight indicated China exempted some U.S. imports from its steep tariffs in a sign on Friday that the trade war between the two countries could be easing, though China quickly knocked down U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion that negotiations were underway. Business groups said China has allowed some U.S.-made pharmaceuticals to enter the country without paying the 125% duties that Beijing imposed earlier this month in response to Trump's 145% tariffs on U.S. imports. Oil, gold, Treasury yields all lower early as the dollar rises.
Economic Data
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | -0.29 | 62.50 |
Brent | -0.21 | 66.34 |
Gold | -54.20 | 3,294.40 |
EUR/USD | -0.0028 | 1.1362 |
JPY/USD | 1.10 | 143.72 |
10-Year Note | -0.021 | 4.284% |
Sector Movers Today
Stock GAINERS
Stock LAGGARDS
Closing Recap
Friday, April 25, 2025
Index | Up/Down | % | Last |
DJ Industrials | 20.10 | 0.05% | 40,113 |
S&P 500 | 40.44 | 0.43% | 5,525 |
Nasdaq | 216.90 | 1.26% | 17,382 |
Russell 2000 | 0.03 | 0.00% | 1,957 |
The S&P closes out the week with a 4-day win streak, longest streak since mid-January. U.S. equity futures eased a bit overnight following several nice rebound days and stayed modestly in the red into early trading with no economic news to sway direction and ongoing tariff headlines not adding to market clarity. The week’s sell-side upgrade/downgrade ratio finished at 53.4%, so it was a bit more optimistic than last week’s 42.1%. It will be interesting to monitor as we progress through earnings and company guidance amid the tariff uncertainty. That said, today’s Fear & Greed Index remained depressed at 34/100 (Fear) but continued to improve versus yesterday’s 31 (Fear) and last week’s 19 (Extreme Fear). It bottomed out at about 4/100 in the initial tariff tantrum. The 10am University of Michigan Sentiment reading came in slightly above expectations though inflation expectations rose sequentially from last month but were in-line with forecasts and futures recovered back to small gains. Mid-morning breadth favored decliners by 2:1 as stocks slipped back in the red with small caps underperforming; IWM (-1.12%) versus SPY (-0.37%) and QQQ (-0.20%). Consumer Discretionary (+0.38%), Communications (+0.10%) and Technology (+0.00%) were early outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Health Care (-0.95%), Consumer Staples (-1.04%) and Materials (-1.20%) led the underperformers with only two sectors gaining versus nine declining.
In data of note today, @bespokeinvest reminds us history suggests following three consecutive days of 1.5%+ gains the rally may have further to go (though history may not have had tariff headlines). On housing, @KobeissiLetter notes US home prices rose 4.5% yr/yr in Q1, the smallest gain since Q323 and Moody’s expects prices will increase just 3.6% in Q2 and 2.5% in Q3. Lastly, @RBAdvisors highlights the relevance of inflation expectations (U Mich out this morning), noting inflation expectations set wage expectations which can promote an “inflation spiral.”
Heading into the final hour of trading, equities were holding afternoon gains and looked too finish the week on a high note. Breadth was slightly in favor of advancers by 1.1:1 as small caps continued to underperform with IWM (-0.20%) versus SPY (+0.68%) and QQQ (+0.9%). Consumer Discretionary (+1.66%), Technology (+1.33%) and Communications (+0.59%) remained outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Energy (-0.30%), Financials (-0.4%) and Materials (-0.9%) paced the underperformers with a fairly even split of five sectors gaining versus six declining. Value and growth also were split with growth the outperformer as the Russell 1000 Growth gained by 1.4% while its Value counterpart slipped by 0.25%. We will see another big week of earnings next week, but thus far (with only 180 S&P 500 names having reported) 77% of names have beaten expectations. Guidance is sure to be key amid the tariff backdrop.
Economic Data
Commodities
Macro | Up/Down | Last |
WTI Crude | 0.23 | 63.02 |
Brent | 0.32 | 66.87 |
Gold | -50.20 | 3,298.40 |
EUR/USD | -0.0011 | 1.1378 |
JPY/USD | 0.90 | 143.52 |
10-Year Note | -0.033 | 4.272% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
Energy, Industrials, and Materials
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
REITs:
Biotech & Pharma:
Internet, Media & Telecom
Hardware & Software movers:
Not offered or endorsed by Regal Securities
Street Recommendations
Friday, April 25, 2025
ALLIANCE GLOBAL PARTNERS
BARCLAYS
BENCHMARK
BMO CAPITAL
BOFA
CANACCORD
CITI
GOLDMAN SACHS
GUGGENHEIM
HSBC
JPMORGAN
KEYBANC
MACQUARIE
MIZUHO
MORGAN STANLEY
NEEDHAM
NORTHLAND
OPPENHEIMER
PIPER SANDLER
RAYMOND JAMES
RBC CAPITAL
ROSENBLATT
STEPHENS
STIFEL
SUSQUEHANNA
TD COWEN
UBS
WELLS FARGO
Rating abbreviations…
***OP = Outperform
***SP = Sector Perform
***UP = Underperform
***OW = Overweight
***EW = Equal-weight
***UW = Underweight
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What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar
Monday April 28th
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Tuesday April 29th
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Wednesday April 30th
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Thursday May 1st
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Friday May 2nd
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