Early Look

Monday, October 6, 2025

Another day, another record for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials, both coming into the trading week with 6-day win streaks while Nasdaq futures outperform overnight following a modest dip Friday to snap its 6-day win streak; gold prices and Bitcoin prices also at record highs as the stock market momentum remains on hyper-drive. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is set for its worst year since 1973. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 2,175 points or 4.75% to settle at a record 47,994 after the country’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected conservative Sanae Takaichi as its new leader Saturday, positioning her to become the country’s first female Prime Minister.  In Europe, the German DAX slips -4 points to 24,374, while the FTSE 100 is down -8 points to 9,483. The S&P 500 index is now about 40% of its April tariff announcement lows, up 7-straight months. Earnings season kicks off next week, the US gov’t shutdown is into Day 6 today, but attention remains on tech and AI on Monday as Open AI Dev Day at Fort Mason in San Francisco takes place today where more than 1,500 developers meet for its biggest DevDay yet.

Crypto prices extended their weekly gains into the weekend as Bitcoin rose through $125K for the first time Sunday, hitting $125,598.61 and breaking its previous high of ~$124,480. The crypto has been up six of the last seven days, fueled by strong inflows into bitcoin ETFs and renewed institutional interest. The euro slips -0.7% vs. the dollar to 1.1656 after France's new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his government resigned on Monday, hours after Lecornu announced his cabinet line-up. The U.S. dollar rose 1.99% to 150.33 Japanese yen, its highest since August as Sanae Takaichi looked set to become Japan's next prime minister leading traders to reduce bets that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates this month. In futures, West Texas Intermediate and Brent both gained 1.7%, following an 8% slump for Brent last week. One big M&A deal in the regional banking space as FITB to acquire CMA in a $12B deal.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.56 points, or 0.51%, to 46,758.28
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -63.54 points, or 0.28%, to 22,780.51
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 17.69 points, or 0.72% to 2,476.18

• Earnings After the Close: AEHR STZ

• Citizens Global Gaming Expo, 10/6-10/8, in Las Vegas, NV

• Brinker (EAT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America saying the disparity between low and high wage earnings is growing starker and is likely to persist.
• Costco (COST) member will soon get access to blockbuster weight loss medications Wegovy and Ozempic, developed by Novo Nordisk (NVO), at half the list price. On Friday, the Danish drugmaker announced plans to offer its popular GLP-1 medications to cash-paying members of Costco.
• California ride-hail drivers will now be able to unionize, after Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill Friday granting collective bargaining rights to workers for Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT) and other gig platforms, the Associated Press reported.
• Ford (F) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies and raise tgt to $12 from $9 saying that with 43% of U.S. volume in full size pick-ups and SUVs, the loosening of current constraints on mix of higher CO2 mix models should enable Ford to offset tariffs and improve earnings next year.
• Shake Shack (SHAK) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America and slash tgt to $86 from $148 as sees margin pressure from competition and inflation at a time when the labor market is softening, and consumers' restaurant spending has come under pressure.
• Stellantis NV (STLA) is preparing to pour roughly $10 billion into its U.S. operations as new CEO Antonio Filosa refocuses on the company’s most profitable market, Bloomberg News reported Saturday.

• Critical Metals (CRML) shares surge 70% after Reuters reports Trump administration officials have discussed taking a stake in in the metal mining company. If completed, the deal would give the U.S. government a direct interest in Greenland's largest, rare earths project.
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) will acquire national security technology company SciTec for about $855 million, the company said on Sunday, sending shares higher. The deal will be funded through a combination of $300 million in cash and $555 million in Firefly shares.

• Eli Lilly (LLY) will invest over $1B in India &###127470;&###127475; to expand manufacturing through local partners, boosting supply of obesity, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, cancer and autoimmune drugs, Reuters reports.
• Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) shares mentioned positively in Barron’s saying the drug company is regaining Wall Street’s confidence as new HIV and cancer treatments drive growth, profits rebound, and the biotech stock approaches its former highs. Once reliant on hepatitis C drugs, Gilead now draws most of its revenue from its dominant HIV franchise and a fast-growing oncology portfolio.

• Foxconn reported record revenue for the month of September and for Q3, though the latter figure missed market expectations. The company said September revenue surged 38% M/M and 14.2% Y/Y to NT$837.07B ($27.54B), while Q3 revenue increased 14.5% Q/Q and 11% Y/Y to NT$2.06T. Foxconn is the world's largest assembler of Apple's (AAPL) iPhones.
• Micron (MU) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and raise tgt to $220 from $160 saying the chip maker will see multiple quarters of double-digit price increases, which can drive substantially higher earnings power.
• Qualtrics, owned by private equity firm Silver Lake, has agreed to buy healthcare market research company Press Ganey Forsta for $6.75 billion, including debt, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, October 06, 2025

U.S. stocks start the week off higher, with the S&P 500 looking for another record high and its 7^th straight day of gains while Nasdaq rebounds after a modest loss Friday, boosted by semiconductors behind AMD (shares +27%) announced a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure in a pact that they said could generate tens of billions of dollars in new revenue, as OpenAI is taking up to a 10% stake in the company. S&P 500 futures unbothered by the 6th day of the government shutdown, rallying every day since. Gold surged to an all-time high above $3,970 per ounce, boosted by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, as well as economic and political uncertainty in the U.S., France and Japan. Oil prices rose more than 1% after OPEC+'s planned production increase for November was more modest than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions. Crypto assets are also strong with Bitcoin making new all-time highs this weekend. Risk assets continue to rise while defensive sectors remain weak. Brazil’s Lula and Donald Trump spoke Monday, their first major call since the US imposed 50% tariffs, but broader macro tariff headlines very quiet. Big moves in foreign markets overnight as Japan’s Nikkei surged 4.75% on political headlines. More of the same as markets led by technology (XLK) which is now the best sector in the S&P YTD (+23.75%) with Communications (XLC) next best at +19.4% YTD and utilities (XLU), led by nuclear names +18.25% YTD.

• In Industrials: Wells Fargo is tactically constructive on PH, JCI, ALLE, HUBB, MMM in Q3 preview, sees lack of positive surprises as relative performance overhangs for EMR, HON, and IR and downgraded EMR to Equal Weight from OW and LII to Underweight from EW saying the near-term lacks catalysts w/ downsized F25 exit rate growth, tough 1H26 margin comps, & relative valuation expansion that likely needs earnings revision help. LII relative valuation has seen more pressure than Wells anticipated.
• In Rare Earth/Materials: CRML shares surge after Reuters reports Trump administration officials have discussed taking a stake in in the metal mining company. If completed, the deal would give the U.S. government a direct interest in Greenland's largest, rare earths project. DFLI shares fell after announces 20M shares at $1.25, about 34% discount to stock's last close saying the Co intends to use net proceeds for working capital and general purposes. Jefferies updated its global mining price deck and up its copper price assumption by c5% to US$5/lb. for 2026 and to US$4.5/lb. (from US$4.25/lb.) LT to reflect a tightening market, but in contrast, sees downside risk for lithium prices and downgraded SQM to Hold.

• AMD +29%; shares surge after saying it will supply artificial intelligence chips to OpenAI in a multi-year deal that would bring in tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue and give the ChatGPT creator the option to buy up to roughly 10% of the chipmaker.
• CMA +15%; as FITB will acquire CMA in an all-stock transaction valued at $10.9B. Under the terms of the agreement, Comerica's stockholders will receive 1.8663 Fifth Third shares for each Comerica share, representing $82.88 per share as of Fifth Third's closing stock price on October 3, 2025.
• CRML +65%; shares surge after Reuters reports Trump administration officials have discussed taking a stake in in the metal mining company. If completed, the deal would give the U.S. government a direct interest in Greenland's largest, rare earths project.
• FLY +11%; after saying it will acquire national security technology company SciTec for about $855 million, the company said on Sunday, sending shares higher. The deal will be funded through a combination of $300 million in cash and $555 million in Firefly shares.
• HSII +19%; said it agreed to sell itself for $1.3 billion to a consortium of investors led by Advent International and Corvex Private Equity as Heidrick shareholders will receive $59 a share in cash.
• MBLY +3%; was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $19 price target as part of a Q3 earnings preview as believes Mobileye can beat its Q3 outlook and raised its full year guidance.
• MU +2%; was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and raise tgt to $220 from $160 saying the chip maker will see multiple quarters of double-digit price increases, which can drive substantially higher earnings power.
• SANM +21%; shares surged on the AMD/OpenAI news as Bank America noted under this deal, OpenAI committed to purchase 6 gigawatts worth of AMD's chips, staring with the MI450 chip next year. They view this announcement as overall positive for Sanmina, as it shows that AMD's chips are gaining traction in the market. Sanmina is AMD's “preferred” NPI partner.
• SPRB +365%; after saying the FDA granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) to tralesinidase alfa enzyme replacement therapy (TA-ERT) for the treatment of Sanfilippo Syndrome Type B.
• TSLA +3%; after teasing an October 7 event; in a nine-second video posted on social media platform X, the Elon Musk-led automaker showed a vehicle with its headlights illuminated in a dark setting. The company hinted at an event scheduled for Tuesday in a separate video that had "10/7" at the end.

• DFLI -24%; after announces 20M shares at $1.25, about 34% discount to stock's last close saying the Co intends to use net proceeds for working capital and general purposes, including repayment of $4M under term loan agreement, and investments in next-gen battery technologies.
• META -2%; falling for the 7^th time in last 8 days as shares remain weak after Tae Kim negative call from Barron's and threat from Sora last week.
• QUBT -11%; announces a $750M private placement with institutional investors. Proceeds will fund commercialization, acquisitions, and scaling production. Closing expected Oct 8, bringing cash to approx. $1.55B.
• SKYE -54%; after Nimacimab monotherapy did not meet its primary endpoint for weight loss; preliminary pharmacokinetic analysis showed lower than expected drug exposure, potentially indicating the need for higher dosing as a monotherapy

Closing Recap

Friday, October 03, 2025

U.S. stocks did it again, a 6^th straight day of gains for the S&P 500 (barely), Dow and Russell 2000 and intraday record high for the Nasdaq Comp before slipping late day, driven by ongoing AI optimism and signs of a cooling labor market (as per ADP private payrolls mid-week) that strengthened the case for interest-rate cuts by the Fed. The U.S. government shutdown, which began at midnight Wednesday after Republicans/Democrats failed to agree on a federal funding deal (now into day 3) led to no nonfarm payroll data released today. What data we did see today, the ISM services index contracted for the fourth consecutive month, while employment was steady and prices paid rose – but markets just shrugged it off. Markets saw an early afternoon sell program kick in around 1:00 pm that took major averages to lows before rebounding later in the day and ending mostly higher. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.09%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.32%, and the Dow climbed 1.1%.

Stocks remain resilient amid good, bad, or no news, as the most recent stock moves underscore a relentless rally in equities despite the federal government shutdown, clouding visibility into economic data. Enthusiasm around AI has helped underpin sentiment this week/month/quarter, and while some analysts warned a prolonged impasse by Republicans and Democrats could weigh on the economy, markets did not care again today, creeping higher. Stock markets remain driven by a handful of key sector players, namely the biggest names in tech (AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, META, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA) and semiconductors (SOX another record high, up 6^th day to 6,650) while several momentum related sectors have seen massive buy interest flows this year including, nuclear energy/data center (CEG, OKLO, GEV, VST, ETN, VRT), rare earths (MP, USAR), and driven by a Robotic AI Agent utilizing Quantum Computing (IBM, IONQ, RGTI, QMCO) with Drone Security/Air Taxis/Space (ASTS, RCAT, ACHR, JBY, UMAC) and crypto with Bitcoin and Ethereum rising and lifting players in space (COIN, HOOD, MSTR, CIFR, IREN, HUT). These remain the market leaders, though broad strength in financials, and industrials this year as well.

Some remarkable market stats appear daily given the nonstop rally in stocks as reach some unprecedented stats never seen before: 1) @MrMBrown, citing Bank America note said on “X”, "each of past 5 months monthly low for S&P 500 printed on 1st trading day of month…first time this has happened since 1928;" 2) @SethCL noted on “X”, $QQQ is on pace for a 108th straight close above its 50-DMA. The streak would now surpass the former streak of 2017 (56% of Nasdaq stocks are above 50-DMA presently, highest since August); 3) @charliebilello noted on “X”, “The S&P 500's price to peak earnings ratio has moved up to 27.7, its highest level since 2000 and over 60% above the historical median. $SPX”; coming into the day, 4) @BenKizemchuk noted on “X”, “both $VIX and $SPX have risen for four consecutive sessions, a rare alignment that has occurred only three times historically. Notably, the dataset contains no instance of both indices rising for five straight days. Each prior occurrence was followed by a decline in $SPX and a continued rise in $VIX.” (that was not the case today as the Vix ended lower today as the S&P rose).

• ISM report on U.S. non-manufacturing sector shows PMI 50.0 September (below consensus 51.7) and vs 52.0 in August; business activity index 49.9 in September (consensus 51.8) vs 55.0 in August; prices paid index 69.4 in September vs 69.2 in August; new orders index 50.4 in September vs 56.0 in August and employment index 47.2 in September vs 46.5 in August.

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $60.88/bbl, up $0.40 or 0.66%, but closed out the week with a drawdown of over -7% to 4-month lows ahead of OPEC+ meeting this weekend where eight countries are likely to further raise oil output on Sunday with the group’s leader Saudi Arabia pushing for a large increase to regain market share and Russia suggesting a more modest rise, according to various reports.
• U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher as the longer-end U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved up 3.5 basis points to 4.125% and the shorter-end U.S. 2-year Treasury yield pushed up 2 basis points to 3.56%. The dollar retreated on Friday, posting multi-week losses against major currencies, as uncertainty surrounding a U.S. government shutdown clouded the outlook and delayed key data releases — such as payrolls.
• Bitcoin posted a weekly rise of over 8%, topping $122,750 this afternoon and less than $2,000 from its all-time highs last month as crypto assets surged the last few days.

• In Autos: shares of F, GM, STLA active later day after Reuters reported President Donald Trump is considering significant tariff relief for U.S. auto production that could effectively eliminate much of the costs major car companies are paying, Republican Senator Bernie Moreno and auto officials told Reuters Friday.
• In Cruise lines: Barclay’s said Internet-based Cruise prices reaccelerated in September across all regions, driven by RCL's brands; said that improving demand backdrop should drive healthy beats and commentary; current entry points look attractive given firming underlying momentum. The firm likes Cruise into year-end on continued industry-wide share gains, pricing power, and positive catalysts, against reasonable valuations.
• In Casinos/Online betting: a rough week for OSB players DKNG, FLUT, SRAD, GENI, etc. on competition fears as Prediction markets have drawn increased attention following Kalshi's record trading volumes and the quiet introduction of its same-game parlay (SGP) product. Investors are questioning whether these developments signal competitive pressure for regulated sportsbooks. Today, short seller SprucePoint said they see 35%-60% potential long-term downside on DKNG citing serious concerns regarding the impact from Prediction markets. Macau related casino names (WYNN, LVS, MGM, MLCO) decline after Citigroup said that national passenger data from China's travel ministry for the first 2-days of Golden Week have been weaker than expected. Also get hit on Typhoon headlines as the city braces for fourth storm in five weeks.

• In Oil Refiners: Morgan Stanley downgraded VLO to Equal Weight from Overweight, PBF was downgraded to Underweight and upgraded DK to Equal Weight saying during Q3, refining stocks rallied by ~20%, bringing the group's YTD gain to ~30%. This is well ahead of the Energy sector's ~5% increase in Q3 and YTD. While the firm said it remains constructive on the longer-term refining outlook, it tactically moves its industry view from Attractive to In-Line and says key stock plays are MPC, DINO.
• In Utilities: Scotiabank with four rating changes as upgraded ETR and DUK to Outperform from Sector Perform while downgraded shares of SO and DTE to Sector Perform from Outperform with a $147 price target.

• In Payments: CNBC reported WMT backed fintech OnePay will soon offer Cryptocurrency trading and custody on its mobile app, CNBC has learned. OnePay will offer customers access to bitcoin and ether later this year with help from the startup Zerohash. PYPL was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research with a fair value range of $70-$80 saying believes the shares will be range-bound with investors requiring further proof of branded execution before getting more constructive. Questions remain on the timeline of a branded acceleration and when PayPal's new initiatives will impact results.
• In Crypto: CAN shares extend yesterday’s gains after saying it received a purchase order for over 50,000 of its Avalon A15 Pro Bitcoin mining machines; COIN was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Redburn (tgt to $417 from $325) pointing to accelerating institutional adoption as a key driver, while the firm initiated stablecoin issuer CRCL at Neutral. Bitcoin mining updates: CLSK said it produced 629 Bitcoin in September/reached 30 EH/s in October 2024 and 50 EH/s in June 2025; MARA said it produced 736 Bitcoin in September/produced 218 blocks, a 5% increase over August/ Energized hashrate increased 1% m/m

• JNJ was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wells Fargo saying the existential risks around tariffs and drug pricing policy changes are now off the table and is also upbeat on J&J's cancer franchise.
• OVID entered into a securities purchase agreement for a private investment in public equity financing that is expected to result in gross proceeds of up to $175M to the Company, including initial gross proceeds of approximately $81M.
• RCKT said it has withdrawn its application for potential U.S. approval of its experimental gene therapy, RP-L102, for a rare inherited blood disorder called Fanconi anemia; said move was driven by business strategy and not by concerns about safety or efficacy, and that it will consider external partnership opportunities.

• In Rails: UBS lowered its Q3 EPS estimates 2% to 4% for CSX, NSC, CNI and CP and its Q3 EPS are 2% - 3% below consensus with the exception of UNP where at $3.02/share it is slightly above consensus of $3.00. Volume growth was less than expected for CNI and CP and an expensive derailment is also a headwind for CP in 3QE. CSX and NSC are facing pressure on revenue / car (RPU) partially due to mix. For UNP UBS expects solid cost side and low single digit revenue growth to support an in-line to modest upside Q3.

• PLTR shares fell after Reuters, citing a recent internal Army memo, said the modernization of the U.S. Army's battlefield communications network being undertaken by Anduril, Palantir and others is rife with "fundamental security" problems and vulnerabilities, and should be treated as a "very high risk https://tinyurl.com/mr2aj98v . Later in the day, PLTR responded by saying, “that issues in the report, published by Reuters, had already been addressed/”
• RCAT shares jumped after Needham initiated at new Buy w/ $17 tgt saying they believe the unmanned aerial systems (UAS) industry is entering a multi-year supercycle, and view Red Cat uniquely positioned to capture accelerating demand for defense-grade small ISR drones.
• WWD was upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research saying following its recent visits to the company's main engine component manufacturing facility and meetings with management, they are increasingly comfortable with the re-acceleration in sales, earnings and cash flow growth that it sees unfolding in FY26.

• In Metals & Mining: FCX was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and raised tgt to $48 from $42.50 saying shares are over-discounting the company's Grasberg challenges. Copper prices hit a 16-month high on Friday, poised for its strongest week in almost six months.
• In Chemicals: TROX was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, saying conditions in the titanium dioxide industry have become more difficult near term. The firm had thought that Tronox's titanium dioxide demand would rise sequentially in Q3:25 versus Q2:25 but now thinks that demand is more likely to be somewhat lower sequentially.

• In Internet & Media: RDDT shares rebound after a few analysts (Piper, Opco) defend shares as Oppenheimer said based on its work, “believes certain 3P data providers indicating reduced ChatGPT/ Gemini usage of Reddit data in September is a measurement issue, and not reflective of actual user/LLM behavior.” BMBL downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Goldman Sachs as now see the current risk/reward on shares as being more balanced at current levels & its current estimates would reflect that visibility into a turnaround of the core Bumble app remains low and likely not until mid-2026.

• Quantum computer names have been among the more volatile and upward momentum sectors over the last few weeks, with today being no different amid big jumps in QUBT, QMCO, QBTS, RGTI(all of which are up more than 20% this week alone) and IONQ.
• In Software: RBLX shares were pressured by analyst commentary as M Science said bookings growth slowing in the U.S. to low 30s in Sept from high 40s in Aug citing back-to-school (Wells Fargo raised tgt to $155 and had positive bookings growth comments).
• In AI/Data Center: Global Infrastructure Partners is in advanced talks to acquire Macquarie-backed Aligned Data Centers, targeting a major beneficiary of the AI spending boom. Aligned could be valued at about $40 billion in a transaction, said one of the people, Bloomberg reported. https://tinyurl.com/42rk6pcw ; GOOGL said it plans to invest $4B in ETR Arkansas data center. Pembina Pipeline (PBA) is close to a deal to build a massive AI data center northeast of Edmonton for META https://tinyurl.com/wwxn52rx

• AMAT issued an 8-K, which indicated that recent (9/29) rule changes by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security, will further restrict/control its system shipments/service revenue in Chin and measures the negative impact at $110M in the current Q4 and $600M in FY26.
• INTC shares fell late day following a report by SemiAccurate saying that the notion that AMD is going to fab chips at Intel Foundry (INTC) is false.
• Huawei Technologies Co. used advanced components from Asia’s largest technology firms in at least some of its leading Ascend AI processors. TechInsights discovered gear from TSM, Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. in multiple samples of Huawei’s third generation Ascend 910C chips – Bloomberg.

Street Recommendations

Monday, October 6, 2025

• RKT Barclays analyst Terry Ma raised the firm's price target on Rocket Companies to $19 from $16 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the consumer finance sector. Investors are more cautious on credit and consumer health heading into the Q3 results, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, Barclays believes credit performance "remains in a good place after two plus years of tightening." Meanwhile, the rate rally this quarter "breathed optimism" into the mortgage market, but has since been tempered, adds the firm. It continues to believe rates will be elevated into 2026.
• SLM Barclays lowered the firm's price target on SLM to $35 from $43 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the consumer finance sector. Investors are more cautious on credit and consumer health heading into the Q3 results, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, Barclays believes credit performance "remains in a good place after two plus years of tightening." Meanwhile, the rate rally this quarter "breathed optimism" into the mortgage market, but has since been tempered, adds the firm. It continues to believe rates will be elevated into 2026.
• GNRC Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Generac to $188 from $200 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm expects the weaker storm season to weigh on Generac's Q3 results. The company's revenue and margins are likely to miss both guidance and consensus estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, Barclays believes additional center capacity will be announced by year-end, which would provide upside to Generac's $500M annual revenue opportunity already communicated.

• RTX Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned raised the firm's price target on RTX to $181 from $157 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. Examining RTX's principal defense business segment, Raytheon, by looking at the major subsegments, the firm says it sees Raytheon as a lead beneficiary of U.S. and international budget priorities. With missiles and missile defense at the top of spending objectives for the DoD and NATO, RTX is particularly well-positioned. Bernstein's estimates move slightly above consensus for Raytheon.
• DLTR Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Dollar Tree to $100 from $109 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm notes that a lot has changed since its last Investor Day in 2023, when Dollar Tree guided to mid-single-digit comparable sales, 35.5%-37.5% gross margin, and 14%-15% EBIT margin by FY26 for the Dollar Tree banner. On the top line, Dollar Tree fell short in 2024 but momentum in the first half of 2025 was strong, supported by the multi-price rollout and macro tailwinds. Dollar Tree has performed largely in line on gross margin. However, its EBIT margin has fallen meaningfully short of expectations, even after adjusting out corporate expenses, due to higher labor costs and general liability accruals, Bernstein adds.

• EAT BofA upgraded Brinker to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $192, up from $190. The disparity between low and high wage earnings is growing starker and is likely to persist, notes the analyst, who points out that the pressure on younger workers is also growing more acute. These recent divergences suggest that full-service restaurants are better positioned as full-service consumers have higher incomes and are older. In this context, the firm made five ratings changes among its restaurant coverage.
• PTLO BofA downgraded Portillo's to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $7, down from $14. The disparity between low and high wage earnings is growing starker and is likely to persist, notes the analyst, who points out that the pressure on younger workers is also growing more acute. These recent divergences suggest that full-service restaurants are better positioned as full-service consumers have higher incomes and are older. In this context, the firm made five ratings changes among its restaurant coverage.
• PZZA BofA analyst Sara Senatore downgraded Papa John's to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $50, down from $62. The disparity between low and high wage earnings is growing starker and is likely to persist, notes the analyst, who points out that the pressure on younger workers is also growing more acute. These recent divergences suggest that full-service restaurants are better positioned as full-service consumers have higher incomes and are older. In this context, the firm made five ratings changes among its restaurant coverage.
• SG, BofA downgraded Sweetgreen to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $9.50, down from $18. The disparity between low and high wage earnings is growing starker and is likely to persist, notes the analyst, who points out that the pressure on younger workers is also growing more acute. These recent divergences suggest that full-service restaurants are better positioned as full-service consumers have higher incomes and are older. In this context, the firm made five ratings changes among its restaurant coverage.

• AXTA Citi upgraded Axalta Coating to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $34, up from $32. The firm sees lower interest rates driving a pickup in U.S. auto sales, leading to increased car production in 2026. Citi now sees less risk to Axalta's guidance and potential estimate upside in 2026 on better car production.
• APD Citi lowered the firm's price target on Air Products to $308 from $325 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the specialty chemicals group. The firm continues to see a challenging macro environment for the group with volumes underperforming across end markets.
• ECL Citi analyst Patrick Cunningham raised the firm's price target on Ecolab to $330 from $315 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the specialty chemicals group. The firm continues to see a challenging macro environment for the group with volumes underperforming across end markets.
• FMC Citi lowered the firm's price target on FMC to $34 from $42 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the specialty chemicals group. The firm continues to see a challenging macro environment for the group with volumes underperforming across end markets.
• IFF Citi lowered the firm's price target on IFF to $75 from $82 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the specialty chemicals group. The firm continues to see a challenging macro environment for the group with volumes underperforming across end markets.
• LIN Citi analyst Patrick Cunningham raised the firm's price target on Linde to $540 from $430 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the specialty chemicals group. The firm continues to see a challenging macro environment for the group with volumes underperforming across end markets.
• PPG Citi lowered the firm's price target on PPG to $120 from $124 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the specialty chemicals group. The firm continues to see a challenging macro environment for the group with volumes underperforming across end markets.
• SHW Citi analyst Patrick Cunningham raised the firm's price target on Sherwin-Williams to $385 from $375 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q3 preview for the specialty chemicals group. The firm continues to see a challenging macro environment for the group with volumes underperforming across end markets.
• CHTR Citi resumed coverage of Charter with a Buy rating and $325 price target. The company will continue to see broadband subscriber losses, but the stock offers value following the recent correction into improving free cash flow generation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• SATS Citi analyst Michael Rollins placed a "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on shares of EchoStar while keeping a Neutral rating on the name with an $85 price target. The stock should trade higher in the near-term given the potential for additional spectrum sales, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• F Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois last night upgraded Ford to Hold from Underperform with a price target of $12, up from $9. The firm says that with 43% of U.S. volume in full size pick-ups and SUVs, the loosening of current constraints on mix of higher CO2 mix models should enable Ford to offset tariffs and improve earnings next year. Jefferies expects Ford to remain committed to an electrification strategy and believes the company should benefit from a longer adjustment period. However, Jefferies says the shares are "relatively expensive" at current levels.
• SQM Jefferies analyst Alejandro Anibal Demichelis last night downgraded SQM to Hold from Buy with a price target of $50, down from $53. The firm sees the potential restart of Chinese projects skewing lithium price risk to the downside in the near-term. It also sees a more gradual recovery towards the incentive loving-term lithium prices required for new projects. Due do this, Jefferies believes SQM offers a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels.

• ANF JPMorgan downgraded Abercrombie & Fitch to Neutral from Overweight with a $103 price target.
• TPG JPMorgan upgraded TPG to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $78, up from $65. The recent selloff in the sector provides an attractive entry point into TPG, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the company is well positioned for "outsized growth" over both the near- and long-term. TPG is entering a "substantive" fundraising cycle, with some of its largest individual fund series due to commence their capital collections in the coming quarters, contends JPMorgan.
• TJX JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on TJX to $149 from $148 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm upped its Q3 estimates for TJX above consensus following its recent fieldwork.
• RRC JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram lowered the firm's price target on Range Resources to $44 from $46 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm expects Range to report sold operating results in Q3 but reduced its estimates below the Street on a mark-to-market for gas prices.
• BFAM JPMorgan added Bright Horizons to the firm's Analyst Focus List while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares with a $150 price target. The company's runway for back-up care revenue growth is large at both existing and new clients, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Bright Horizons' back-up business is an employee benefit administered on behalf of employers. It believes the stock is undervalued and that investors underappreciate the company's back-up opportunity.

• FDUS Keefe Bruyette upgraded Fidus Investment to Outperform from Market Perform with a $21.50 price target. Business development companies have dropped about 10.6% since early September, underperforming both financials and the S&P 500 as sentiment has soured, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The current environment may offer selective opportunities for investors seeking BDCs with stronger earnings potential or limited downside risk, the firm adds.
• PFLT Keefe Bruyette upgraded PennantPark Floating Rate to Outperform from Market Perform with a $10.50 price target. Business development companies have dropped about 10.6% since early September, underperforming both financials and the S&P 500 as sentiment has soured, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The current environment may offer selective opportunities for investors seeking BDCs with stronger earnings potential or limited downside risk, the firm adds.

• ALNY Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Ulz raised the firm's price target on Alnylam to $475 from $405 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm, which notes that its monthly sales and script analysis implies Q3 worldwide Amvuttra sales of about $650M-$680M, which would be "notably above" the consensus estimate of $608M, sees the potential for "another beat and raise" in Q3 as it expects Amvuttra launch momentum in TTR-CM to continue.

• GSHD Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Goosehead Insurance to $79 from $92 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting price targets for some of its companies as a result of shifting peer group multiples over the last month or so. Broker multiples are generally lower. Carrier valuations are more mixed, Piper adds.
• ORI Piper Sandler analyst Paul Newsome raised the firm's price target on Old Republic to $47 from $45 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting price targets for some of its companies as a result of shifting peer group multiples over the last month or so. Broker multiples are generally lower. Carrier valuations are more mixed, Piper adds.
• WTW Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on WTW to $387 from $369 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting price targets for some of its companies as a result of shifting peer group multiples over the last month or so. Broker multiples are generally lower. Carrier valuations are more mixed, Piper adds.

• CLH Raymond James analyst Patrick Tyler Brown raised the firm's price target on Clean Harbors to $280 from $277 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. Raymond James believes that this quarter will likely prove another "meet and hold" setup broadly across the waste and industrial services group as trends remain steady, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Pricing growth is likely to continue decelerating lower across the group next year, and the group continues to push on efficiency gains through its embrace of technology and utilizing traditional strategies like employee retention programs to combat against lingering cost inflation that should continue to be supportive of margins, the firm argues.
• CWST Raymond James raised the firm's price target on Casella Waste to $125 from $119 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. Raymond James believes that this quarter will likely prove another "meet and hold" setup broadly across the waste and industrial services group as trends remain steady, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Pricing growth is likely to continue decelerating lower across the group next year, and the group continues to push on efficiency gains through its embrace of technology and utilizing traditional strategies like employee retention programs to combat against lingering cost inflation that should continue to be supportive of margins, the firm argues.
• GFL Raymond James analyst Patrick Tyler Brown raised the firm's price target on GFL Environmental to $57 from $56 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Raymond James believes that this quarter will likely prove another "meet and hold" setup broadly across the waste and industrial services group as trends remain steady, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Pricing growth is likely to continue decelerating lower across the group next year, and the group continues to push on efficiency gains through its embrace of technology and utilizing traditional strategies like employee retention programs to combat against lingering cost inflation that should continue to be supportive of margins, the firm argues.
• RSG Raymond James raised the firm's price target on Republic Services to $260 from $250 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Raymond James believes that this quarter will likely prove another "meet and hold" setup broadly across the waste and industrial services group as trends remain steady, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Pricing growth is likely to continue decelerating lower across the group next year, and the group continues to push on efficiency gains through its embrace of technology and utilizing traditional strategies like employee retention programs to combat against lingering cost inflation that should continue to be supportive of margins, the firm argues.
• WCN Raymond James raised the firm's price target on Waste Connections to $213 from $210 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares. Raymond James believes that this quarter will likely prove another "meet and hold" setup broadly across the waste and industrial services group as trends remain steady, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Pricing growth is likely to continue decelerating lower across the group next year, and the group continues to push on efficiency gains through its embrace of technology and utilizing traditional strategies like employee retention programs to combat against lingering cost inflation that should continue to be supportive of margins, the firm argues.
• WM Raymond James raised the firm's price target on WM to $256 from $250 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Raymond James believes that this quarter will likely prove another "meet and hold" setup broadly across the waste and industrial services group as trends remain steady, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Pricing growth is likely to continue decelerating lower across the group next year, and the group continues to push on efficiency gains through its embrace of technology and utilizing traditional strategies like employee retention programs to combat against lingering cost inflation that should continue to be supportive of margins, the firm argues.

• RPM RBC Capital analyst Arun Viswanathan lowered the firm's price target on RPM to $121 from $125 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company slightly missed Q1 EBIT on stronger Performance Coatings / Construction Products segment sales but higher SG&A, and the firm is somewhat cautious on RPM's continued plant consolidation and growth-related SG&A expenses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

• CHKP Scotiabank downgraded Check Point to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $205, down from $220. While the firm's analysis of the U.S. software sector based on approximately 40 recent checks reinforces its positive stance and makes it "incrementally more optimistic about IT budget growth," the firm feels "less optimistic" about Check Point heading into 2026 despite calling it an "amazing" company.
• ESTC Scotiabank analyst Patrick Colville downgraded Elastic to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $90, down from $121. While the firm's analysis of the U.S. software sector based on approximately 40 recent checks reinforces its positive stance and makes it "incrementally more optimistic about IT budget growth," the firm feels "less optimistic" about Elastic heading into 2026 despite calling it an "amazing" company.
• T Scotiabank downgraded AT&T to Sector Perform from Outperform with a $30.25 price target. AT&T is expected to post 2% revenue and EBITDA growth in Q3, driven by mobility and consumer strength, while business segment weakness persists, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The stock has benefited from steady growth and improved cash flow stability but may face challenges outperforming peers without a significant earnings surprise, given its current valuation and 4.1% dividend yield, the firm says.
• CMCSA Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Comcast to $45.50 from $45 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm expects results for the telco sector to be broadly in line with consensus expectations and does not see downside risk to company guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• VZ Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi raised the firm's price target on Verizon to $50.50 from $50 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm expects results for the telco sector to be broadly in line with consensus expectations and does not see downside risk to company guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• TMUS Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on T-Mobile to $278 from $271 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm expects results for the telco sector to be broadly in line with consensus expectations and does not see downside risk to company guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
• WELL Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Welltower to $182 from $181 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Welltower is buying real estate that sits well-positioned in hard-to-build Canadian markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Recent broker checks also point to Welltower considering a sale of a sizeable medical office building portfolio, which the firm would view positively if executed at a low-6% cap rate to reinvest into the faster-growth Seniors Housing segment.
• WEC Scotiabank analyst Andrew Weisel raised the firm's price target on WEC Energy to $129 from $115 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

• UEC Stifel resumed coverage of Uranium Energy with a Buy rating and $10.50 price target. Uranium Energy offers near-term production growth from the development of several U.S. in-situ assets, while providing exploration upside opportunities from its assets in the Athabasca Basin, the analyst tells investors.

• LII Wells Fargo analyst Joseph O'Dea upgraded Lennox to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $575, down from $675, as part of a Q3 earnings preview. The stock's relative valuation has seen more pressure than anticipated, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wells expects a 2025 guidance cut for Lennox, but does not see that translating to big fiscal 2026 earnings headwinds, leaving a more balanced risk/reward at current levels.
• BKNG Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Booking Holdings to $5,443 from $5,418 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm expects typical solid Booking execution in a steady travel environment. Wells sees the real action around potential AI impacts to the digital travel landscape, most notably search evolving to answers from blue link referrals and agentic commerce.
• EXPE Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Expedia to $212 from $211 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is constructive on the fundamental setup into Q3 earnings, with expectations for U.S. travel improvement relatively modest. Healthy VRBO and brand Expedia traffic supports upside to consensus room nights, with offset from continued AI disintermediation risk, Wells adds.
• MSFT Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Microsoft to $675 from $650 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm believes the hey debate into Q1 will be degree of Azure upside given incremental capacity in Q1, though the last 2 prints present a high bar. With recent demand signals intensifying, Wells expects Microsoft is broadly set to benefit.
• FSK As previously reported, Wells Fargo analyst Finian O'Shea upgraded FS KKR Capital to Equal Weight from Underweight with a $15 price target. The firm notes that its previous downgrade to Underweight was predicated on visible credit concerns and a higher likelihood of a dividend cut. While there is potentially more to come on credit, its 0.68x NAV valuation leads to an unfavorable risk-reward skew, in Well's view. FS foreshadowed its plan to reset the dividend alongside its Q3 results. This reset has the potential to come with larger near-term special dividends to clear part of its estimated spillover balance of about $1.60/share, the firm adds.
• GDDY Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on GoDaddy to $145 from $157 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says its bookings estimates move modestly higher on favorable F/X, while CC growth remains unchanged.

Rating abbreviations…

***OP = Outperform

***SP = Sector Perform

***UP = Underperform

***OW = Overweight

***EW = Equal-weight

***UW = Underweight

***Report powered by thefly.com***

What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar

• Earnings After the Close: AEHR STZ

• 8:30 AM ET                   International Trade for August
• 8:55 AM ET                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $58B in 3-year notes
• 3:00 PM ET                    Consumer Credit for August
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: PENG SAR

• Citizens Global Gaming Expo, 10/6-10/8, in Las Vegas, NV
• SEMICon West, 10/7-10/8, in Arizona

• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $39B in 10-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AZZ BSET RELL RGP

• Citizens Global Gaming Expo, 10/6-10/8, in Las Vegas, NV
• SEMICon West, 10/7-10/8, in Arizona
• Telsey Global Consumer & Retail Conference, 10/8 in New York

• 8:30 AM ET                   Continuing Claims
• 10:00 AM ET                 Wholesale Inventory M/m for August
• 10:30 AM ET                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $22B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: APLD APOG EDUC LEVI ODC

• 1:00 PM ET                    Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

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